WALK THE STREETS OF BAKERSFIELD

The Bakersfield Condors play their first game of the 2016-17 AHL season tomorrow night. Normally I would post a GDT but the Oilers play tomorrow night and that takes precedence. Instead, here is a quick update on the players, their range as prospects, and who might be an Oiler at some point this season.

CURRENT ROSTER

  • 1—G Eetu Laurikainen
  • 2—LD Mark Fraser
  • 3—LD Dillon Simpson
  • 4—RD Matt Benning
  • 5—LD Ben Betker
  • 6—LD David Musil
  • 7—C Jujhar Khaira
  • 8—LD Griffin Reinhart
  • 11—W Joey Benik
  • 12—L Ryan Hamilton
  • 14—C Kyle Platzer
  • 15—LD Jordan Oesterle
  • 17—LD Joey Laleggia
  • 18—C Josh Currie
  • 19—L Mitch Moroz
  • 21—C Zach Pochiro
  • 22—R Joel Rechlicz
  • 23—L Braden Christoffer
  • 25—R Greg Chase
  • 28—LD Mikael Tam
  • 29—L Scott Allen
  • 31—G Laurent Brossoit (recalled today)
  • 34—G Nick Ellis
  • 36—R Patrick Russell
  • 39—R Jaedon Descheneau
  • 40—L Jere Sallinen
  • 41—R Taylor Beck
  • Source

Edmonton recalled Laurent Brossoit this afternoon to backup Cam Talbot while Jonas Gustavsson recovers from injury. The Oilers recalled Eetu Laurikainen from Norfolk Admirals to replace him, while also sending Matt Benning to the minors. He is the only RHD in Bakersfield, although Frankie Simonelli is just a call away (Norfolk) if required. He will wear No. 4.

The 20-Year Old Regulars

None. Edmonton begins the year without a 20-year old regular, amazing when you consider the AHL is the bridge from junior to the NHL.

The Regulars 21-25 (18)

  • C Kyle Platzer (21) (6-11-17), R Greg Chase (21) (1-6-7), C Jujhar Khaira (22) 10-17-27, L Mitch Moroz (22) 5-5-10, D Griffin Reinhart (22) 2-8-10, L Braden Christoffer (22) 1-4-5, D Ben Betker (22), C-R Josh Currie (23), D Dillon Simpson (23) 4-16-20, G Eetu Laurikainen (18, 3.42 .907), D David Musil (23), 3-11-14, D Joey Laleggia (24) 8-19-27, D Jordan Oesterle (24) 4-21-25.
  • New Additions: R Jaedon Descheneau (21), C Zach Pochiro (22), C-L Jere Sallinen (25), R Taylor Beck (25), D Mikael Tam (25).

This group of prospects represents the most promising group in Bakersfield. In the annual item Farm Workers, we have established two things to be true about this age group in the AHL:

  • Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering.

Last fall, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse (both 20) spent little time in the minors before their recall to the NHL. Men like Griffin Reinhart and David Musil were unable to make that grade, and now spend what might be another season in the minors attempting to grind their skills into something NHL teams can utilize.

  • If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble.

I think this is a big one. Men who are 22 or greater this year include Griffin Reinhart, Jujhar Khaira, Mitch Moroz and Jordan Oesterle. How many have a clear path to the NHL? I think the answer is none, your mileage may vary. Kyle Platzer and Greg Chase are not yet 22, but it is pretty clear that all of these young men are under the gun in terms of finding an NHL career. A big season for all of them.

The Regulars 26-35 (3)

  • L Scott Allen (26), R Joel Rechlicz (29), D Mark Fraser (30), L Ryan Hamilton (31).

It is very unusual for a 30-year old AHL player to get the call, but it does happen. Rob Klinkhammer played 14 NHL games this past season at 29, before shooting lights out for Bakersfield. He was more of an NHL player fading from the big leagues though, not really a minor leaguer catching on. Fraser could get some NHL time, I bet, and something tells me they like Scott Allen.

COLLEGE MEN

  • G Nick Ellis (22), D Matt Benning (22), R Patrick Russell (23), F Joey Benik (24).

This is an interesting group, who combined with Drake Caggiula (who made the Oilers but has not played with the club due to injury) represent a big part of Peter Chiarelli’s recruitment summer. We discussed this subject in Farm Workers:

  • Exceptions are college men. Playing 4 NCAA seasons means turning pro at 22, meaning a “late start” for some quality prospects.

Jordan Oesterle qualifies for this too, although he has been in the minors for a couple of seasons now. If we are honest, the exciting portion of the Condors prospect group is from the college signings—and the prospects who were in the AHL last season may take a back seat to Caggiuila and Benning. In a way, Chiarelli has upgraded the prospect list and cut off a large group of draft picks/prospects, which may or may not include Griffin Reinhart.

  • No minor league regular is likely to do anything incredible like play in 1,000 NHL games. It is a rare thing for a player to spend a couple of seasons in the minors and then go on to a 1,000 NHL game calibre career.

This applies to Griffin Reinhart, suspect his opportunity to post a big number (his Dad played 648 NHL games but could have played longer without chronic back pain) lies in a strong season in 2016-17. Your view on the odds of that happening probably guides the discussion.

THE FUTURE NHLERS ARE….

If we are using the Scott Cullen line in the sand (100 games), then I think Griffin Reinhart, Laurent Brossoit (recalled today), Matt Benning and Jujhar Khaira are the most reasonable bets. I also think that (among the current Condors) the most interesting prospects are the college men, and believe it is curious that both Khaira and Jordan Oesterle were sent down so early in camp. I think the answer has to do with Caggiula and Benning, and that is the big story to follow in Bakersfield this winter.

TOP BAKERSFIELD PROSPECTS BASED ON POSSIBLE FUTURE

  1. C Jujhar Khaira, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-2-2) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 10-17-27).
  2. LD Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton Oilers (29, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (30, 2-8-10).
  3. RD Matt Benning, Northeastern (41, 6-13-19)
  4. G Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers (5, 3.61 .873) and Bakersfield Condors (31, 2.66 .920).
  5. LD Jordan Oesterle, Edmonton Oilers (17, 0-5-5) and Bakersfield Condors (44, 4-21-25).
  6. LD Dillon Simpson, Bakersfield Condors (57, 4-16-20).
  7. LD Joey Laleggia, Bakersfield Condors (63, 8-19-27).
  8. R Patrick Russell, St. Cloud State (41, 20-21-41).
  9. RC Kyle Platzer, Bakersfield Condors (48, 6-11-17).
  10. R Greg Chase, Bakersfield Condors (19, 1-6-7) and Norfolk Admirals (43, 18-19-37).
  11. L Jere Salinen, Jokerit (50, 8-11-19).
  12. G Nick Ellis, Providence (36, 1.80 .936).
  13. D David Musil, Bakersfield Condors (67, 3-11-14).
  14. W Joey Benik, St. Cloud State (41, 23-25-48).
  15. L Mitch Moroz, Bakersfield Condors (40, 5-5-10).
  16. G Eetu Laurikainen, Bakersfield Condors (18, 3.42 .907).
  17. D Ben Betker, Bakersfield Condors (14, 0-2-2) and Norfolk Admirals (49, 3-14-17).
  18. L Braden Christoffer, Bakersfield Condors (33, 1-4-5) and Norfolk Admirals (24, 13-5-18).

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58 Responses to "WALK THE STREETS OF BAKERSFIELD"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    There may well be a lot of bait cut this year in B-Field.

  2. Water Fire says:

    I like the changes in the system. It seems more considered and that the player types are the type they want on the Oilers. I have always seen a disconnect there before. Chia just needs to be right.

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    LB up, Benning down.

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    Also, looks like the CFR road trip may be still a thing….

  5. pocession charge says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Also, looks like the CFR road trip may be still a thing….

    Surprising about face for the CPRA. They were being run by the rodeo clowns I think. A combined CFR/PBR event is huge for the city. Good news.

  6. Frank the dog says:

    Honestly, I could care less about anything to do with the Oilers organization unless and until they find a way to start fielding consistently competitive teams. Don’t hold your breath.

  7. Spoils says:

    is it just me or does the cupboard seem bare?

    note to PC next time we ship hall out for larsson, pushing for an extra pick at the last minute…

  8. Water Fire says:

    Frank the dog:
    Honestly, I could care less about anything to do with the Oilers organization unless and until they find a wayto start fielding consistently competitive teams. Don’t hold your breath.

    The good thing now is nobody in the org is cutting any slack now. Win or go away.

    These gents aren’t our friends (not by a fan’s choice) nor amateurs. Life is hard, suck it up. Get a good night’s sleep on a pillow case stuffed with your gigantic piles of US dollars.

    Maybe that reads harsh but that is the reality of winning in an ultra competitive environment.

  9. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I’m not one for groupthink as you know, but I think we can all agree that was a bad loss last night. I had a bad feeling when browsing yesterday’s comments section reading comments like “remember the bad ol’ days, we’d always blow a game like this one, haha” & I’m going “what makes anybody confident the bad ol’ days aren’t still in full force & effect? 2 games??” …& immediately started having a bad feeling about the game.

    So, if we all agree that was a stinker of a game, how can we explain this?

    Stat ……… F …. A …. F%
    —–
    Corsi …… 58 … 44 … 57%
    Fenwick . 43 … 33 … 57%
    Shots ….. 33 … 24 … 58%
    SC ……… 31 … 18 … 63%
    HDSC …. 19 …. 8 …. 70%
    —–
    Goals …… 2 ….. 6 …. 25%

    That’s from natural stat trick, who list things the same way I sometimes do, from largest sample/least average danger right on up. It shows increasing levels of dominance by the Oilers, from very good Corsi to even better scoring chances & HDSC. Bear in mind this is from all situations, which includes 6 Buffalo powerplays (or was it 60?) to Edmonton’s 1.

    Then thud! 2 for 6 against in the only count that really matters.

    If that’s a bad game maybe things really Are looking up.

    Obviously the Oilers got piss-pounded by PDO — maybe one thing we actually can all agree upon is you are not going to win games with a PDO of 0811. And it’s always worth noting the presence of extreme-PDO’s evil twin, score effects, which often rear their heads together. So that might have bumped the Oilers’ #s a little. Still, creating 70% of the high-danger scoring chances will win a lot of games, this just happened to be one where the Oilers couldn’t execute the shot, or the save.

  10. kinger_OIL says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    – Thanks: this is a fancy-stats way of stating: “man our goalie sucked”!

  11. Lowetide says:

    Bruce: I mentioned that in this morning’s article. 🙂 The Oilers had great possession numbers, and as G mentioned in the comments section things were not as dire as the score indicated. I do think the team had poor moments but there were good things.

  12. Water Fire says:

    Agreed the team is better as a group. But the fog in scoring chance data is execution. The difference with good teams is they give up few to no gimmees. Either by goaltending or play.

    Mistakes are killers, especially in playoffs where execution is everything.

    It is one thing to be beat by a great play, another completely to give up a 5 bell chance – oops!

    To say they kicked ass where it counts but gave up 6 easy goals is still a huge problem. As in 10 years out of the playoffs huge.

    Sloppy, undisciplined, repeating mistake play is a sign of weak minds as far as the game is concerned. Nobody gets taken seriously in anything behaving like that.

    Woodguy and G Honey Drawers would fire guys for it!

  13. Lloyd B. says:

    Edmonton begins the year without a 20-year old regular, amazing when you consider the AHL is the bridge from junior to the NHL.

    That wonky 2014 draft. That hole will move through the organization for 2 more years.

    That years college signings should plug that hole. IF we can still get the college men to sign due to our strong NHL team. I’m not sure if that is tongue in cheek or unbridled optimism

  14. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Nuge is one of my favorites but what do we do with him if he gets 35 points this year and is 43 percent in the dot?

  15. frjohnk says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    Nugeis one of my favorites but what do we do with him if he gets 35 points this year and is 43 percent in the dot?

    Probably trade him for something in between Adam Larrson and an ECHLer with a 3rd pound pick.

    Then the trifecta would be complete.

    As there can only be 1.

  16. Water Fire says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    Nugeis one of my favorites but what do we do with him if he gets 35 points this year and is 43 percent in the dot?

    We look at usage and age. If he has help and is treated reasonably then there is a problem.

    Up to now he has not been treated reasonably, or given help always. Eberle is not help necessarily if you’re asked to neutralize other top lines. Hall at least could get the puck into the other team’s end. Pouliot is having issues ATM.

    McKinnon is playing wing still. Nuge might not be Kopitar, but he might be a killer still, when he has whiskers. On his ass.

  17. Water Fire says:

    frjohnk: As there can only be 1.

    Awesome

  18. JDï™ says:

    teddyturnbuckle: what do we do with him if he gets 35 points this year

    We welcome in the new cremated puck era.

  19. Elkhorn Boy says:

    Have we had any update on when we will be seeing the Drake? Was he on the ice today?

  20. Lowetide says:

    Elkhorn Boy:
    Have we had any update on when we will be seeing the Drake?Was he on the ice today?

    Nothing so far, suspect it means it will be some time yet.

  21. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: Nothing so far, suspect it means it will be some time yet.

    Stauffer said on Oilers Now that it was a hip flexor and that it would be weeks not days.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I’m not one for groupthink as you know, but I think we can all agree that was a bad loss last night. I had a bad feeling when browsing yesterday’s comments section reading comments like “remember the bad ol’ days, we’d always blow a game like this one, haha” & I’m going “what makes anybody confident the bad ol’ days aren’t still in full force & effect? 2 games??” …& immediately started having a bad feeling about the game.

    So, if we all agree that was a stinker of a game, how can we explain this?

    Stat ……… F …. A …. F%
    —–
    Corsi …… 58 … 44 … 57%
    Fenwick . 43 … 33 … 57%
    Shots ….. 33 … 24 … 58%
    SC ……… 31 … 18 … 63%
    HDSC …. 19 …. 8 …. 70%
    —–
    Goals …… 2 ….. 6 …. 25%

    That’s from natural stat trick, who list things the same way I sometimes do, from largest sample/least average danger right on up. It shows increasing levels of dominance by the Oilers, from very good Corsi to even better scoring chances & HDSC. Bear in mind this is from all situations, which includes 6 Buffalo powerplays (or was it 60?) to Edmonton’s 1.

    Then thud! 2 for 6 against in the only count that really matters.

    If that’s a bad game maybe things really Are looking up.

    Obviously the Oilers got piss-pounded by PDO — maybe one thing we actually can all agree upon is you are not going to win games with a PDO of 0811. And it’s always worth noting the presence of extreme-PDO’s evil twin, score effects, which often rear their heads together. So that might have bumped the Oilers’ #s a little. Still, creating 70% of the high-danger scoring chances will win a lot of games, this just happened to be one where the Oilers couldn’t execute the shot, or the save.

    Nice post Bruce.

    I agree.

    I stayed off twitter all day because the Legions of Gloom were all out in full force calling for Chia’s head and tweeting incessantly how every Oiler was terrible.

    It was awful.

    Stayed out of the morning thread for the same reason.

    Lots of score effects in those numbers, but they simply couldn’t get a stop and Lehner was very good from the high danger areas.

    In the first 3 game the Oilers are:

    3rd in Scoring Change share:

    Team SCF%
    Vancouver Canucks 62.71
    Toronto Maple Leafs 61.9
    Edmonton Oilers 60.87
    San Jose Sharks 60
    Minnesota Wild 59.62
    New York Islanders 58.06
    Florida Panthers 56.14
    Pittsburgh Penguins 55.77
    Tampa Bay Lightning 54.29
    Nashville Predators 53.45
    Colorado Avalanche 53.03
    Philadelphia Flyers 52.94
    Detroit Red Wings 52.58
    New York Rangers 52.48
    Columbus Blue Jackets 51.32
    Ottawa Senators 49.06
    Boston Bruins 47.76
    Dallas Stars 46.67
    Winnipeg Jets 46.55
    Chicago Blackhawks 44.71
    St Louis Blues 44.44
    Washington Capitals 44.07
    Arizona Coyotes 42.42
    Calgary Flames 41.98
    Los Angeles Kings 40.26
    Buffalo Sabres 39.68
    Montreal Canadiens 39.29
    New Jersey Devils 39.06
    Anaheim Ducks 38.71
    Carolina Hurricanes 38.33

    Dys????? WTF?

    3rd in High Danger Scoring Chance share:

    Team HDCF%
    Vancouver Canucks 67.74
    Toronto Maple Leafs 66.67
    Edmonton Oilers 66.67
    San Jose Sharks 64.71
    Minnesota Wild 62.5
    New York Islanders 61.22
    Florida Panthers 60
    Pittsburgh Penguins 59.02
    Tampa Bay Lightning 56.76
    Nashville Predators 56.25
    Colorado Avalanche 55.77
    Philadelphia Flyers 54.17
    Detroit Red Wings 52.83
    New York Rangers 51.61
    Columbus Blue Jackets 50
    Ottawa Senators 50
    Boston Bruins 49.09
    Dallas Stars 48.28
    Winnipeg Jets 48.15
    Chicago Blackhawks 42.86
    St Louis Blues 42
    Washington Capitals 41.94
    Arizona Coyotes 40.63
    Calgary Flames 38.24
    Los Angeles Kings 38.1
    Buffalo Sabres 38.1
    Montreal Canadiens 36.36
    New Jersey Devils 34.09
    Anaheim Ducks 31.03
    Carolina Hurricanes 30

    Dys again eh?

    Early, early, early days and 3 games doesn’t mean too much, but there isn’t much to bitch about other than Chiarelli’s choice for back up (who didn’t even really get to play) and Talbot’s start to the season.

  23. Woodguy says:

    If you’re wonder how the SCF% looked last year:

    (I’ve noted playoff teams with “**” and mentioned PDO for teams who made it/didn’t and were on the side of the ledger where you’d expect them to be in)

    Team SCF%
    Los Angeles Kings 56.29 **
    San Jose Sharks 55.28 **
    Pittsburgh Penguins 54.26 **
    Nashville Predators 53.96 **
    Dallas Stars 52.98 **
    Detroit Red Wings 52.32 **
    Tampa Bay Lightning 52.23 **
    St Louis Blues 52.07 **
    Toronto Maple Leafs 51.7 – no, PDO of 983
    Columbus Blue Jackets 51.25 – no PDO of 997
    Washington Capitals 50.96 **
    Anaheim Ducks 50.78 **
    Montreal Canadiens 50.43 -no PDO of 993
    Chicago Blackhawks 50.2 **
    Florida Panthers 49.98 **
    Winnipeg Jets 49.96
    Edmonton Oilers 49.94
    Boston Bruins 49.54
    Carolina Hurricanes 49.23
    Calgary Flames 49
    Philadelphia Flyers 48.84
    Minnesota Wild 48.21 ** PDO of 1008
    Buffalo Sabres 48.05
    New York Islanders 47.58
    New York Rangers 47.09 ** PDO of 1024
    Arizona Coyotes 47.09
    New Jersey Devils 46.92
    Ottawa Senators 46.75
    Vancouver Canucks 45.07
    Colorado Avalanche 42.37

    So most of the best SCF% make the playoffs unless the PDO is wonky.

    CBJ ran very cold with a low PDO to start the season and actually ended it well, so their PDO doesn’ quite reflect the year.

    Conversely NYR PDO’s their way to the playoffs (again) on the back of Lundqvist.

    MIN was just kind of weird and snuck in.

    On the whole though, its a pretty telling stat.

  24. Alpine says:

    Woodguy,

    Sedins are still pisscutters, Eriksson is the best RW they’ve had in years and Tanev + Edler both healthy is a pretty good top pairing. Rest of the roster mostly sucks but if those guys play a lot of minutes it definitely helps.

    I have no clue what the Dys are doing. Benning seems clueless but at the same time i think he’s more open to rebuilding than the owners are, and the weird trades are a product of him trying ice a semi-competitive team. If they’re able to hold onto those five players while still sucking enough to pick high, they’ll have much better shelter than the Oilers ever did for the Hall cluster.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Alpine:
    Woodguy,

    Sedins are still pisscutters, Eriksson is the best RW they’ve had in years and Tanev + Edler both healthy is a pretty good top pairing. Rest of the roster mostly sucks but if those guys play a lot of minutes it definitely helps.

    I have no clue what the Dys are doing. Benning seems clueless but at the same time i think he’s more open to rebuilding than the owners are, and the weird trades are a product of him trying ice a semi-competitive team. If they’re able to hold onto those five players while still sucking enough to pick high, they’ll have much better shelter than the Oilers ever did for the Hall cluster.

    Problem there is they cannot trade Henrick and Daniel (who can take on two contracts like that, save Vegas?) and the blasted Sedins still do stuff.

  26. Alpine says:

    Lowetide: Problem there is they cannot trade Henrick and Daniel (who can take on two contracts like that, save Vegas?) and the blasted Sedins still do stuff.

    The whole situation in VAN is kind of bizarre. They’ve been weirdly able to suck with the Sedins 2 of the last 3 years and scoop up some high picks and the Sedins seem alright with riding out their careers there. I just don’t believe Benning is smart enough to do that by design, it’s more that he did a bad job of keeping them competitive.

  27. Pescador says:

    Water Fire,

    Maybe that reads harsh but that is the reality of losing in an ultra competitive environment.
    FtFy.

  28. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Problem there is they cannot trade Henrick and Daniel (who can take on two contracts like that, save Vegas?) and the blasted Sedins still do stuff.

    May I respectfully suggest Carolina Drama by the Raconteurs/Jack White as tomorrow’s GDT?

  29. Woodguy says:

    Dys got CGY on their 3rd in 4 nights and 2nd of B2B when travelling (from CGY to VAN)

    Then they came out hard vs CAR, CAR pushed back and got 3, then Dys score-effected their way to a 72% CF and 64% SCF in the 3rd.

    Early days, they’ll fall off.

    Oilers will too, but hopefully not too much.

  30. stush18 says:

    Woodguy:
    Dys got CGY on their 3rd in 4 nights and 2nd of B2B when travelling (from CGY to VAN)

    Then they came out hard vs CAR, CAR pushed back and got 3, then Dys score-effected their way to a 72% CF and 64% SCF in the 3rd.

    Early days, they’ll fall off.

    Oilers will too, but hopefully not too much.

    Why are the Canucks called Dys? Have I missed something along the way?

  31. JDï™ says:

    Jethro Tull: May I respectfully suggest Carolina Drama by the Raconteurs/Jack White as tomorrow’s GDT?

    Probably better than Carolina Hardcore Ecstasy by Zappa.

  32. Pescador says:

    Spoils:
    is it just me or does the cupboard seem bare?

    note to PC next time we ship hall out for larsson, pushing for an extra pick at the last minute…

    Depends on what your definition of bare is. Plenty of bottom 6 forward potential, and 6-7 Dmen if your pro roster is dangerously short of lefties.
    Oh and they’ll need good cover to be effective.

  33. Jethro Tull says:

    JDï™: Probably better than Carolina Hardcore Ecstasy by Zappa.

    Or Oh Carolina by Shaggy.

  34. Gerta Rauss says:

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/raw–todd-mclellan/t-277437406/c-45394803

    A more subdued McLellan after the morning skate

    -the last question was from Matty and Pouliot will play tomorrow if there was any doubts

  35. Gerta Rauss says:

    stush18: Why are the Canucks called Dys? Have I missed something along the way?

    It was a Dennis-ism from years ago mocking the Dynasty Canuck teams…ie:Dys

  36. Gordies Elbow says:

    Congrats to Tyler Benson, WHL’s player of the week!

    I saw him play for SSAC in the AMBHL, and was not shocked to see him go #1 OA in the WHL in 2013. He plays on the right side of the puck and has a 200 foot game. Terrific vision, soft hands.

    Very happy that Edmonton drafted him.

  37. jp says:

    Alpine:
    Woodguy,

    Sedins are still pisscutters, Eriksson is the best RW they’ve had in years and Tanev + Edler both healthy is a pretty good top pairing. Rest of the roster mostly sucks but if those guys play a lot of minutes it definitely helps.

    2nd last in SCF% last year. This year’s # can’t be real.

  38. Pastor of Disaster says:

    stush18: Why are the Canucks called Dys? Have I missed something along the way?

    This is the question I’ve been meaning to ask for months and months and never had the guts! I always imagine it being a short form of WinDY’S, because like wind, the Canucks really blow. But I doubt that’s it.

  39. steveb12344 says:

    Pastor of Disaster: This is the question I’ve been meaning to ask for months and months and never had the guts!I always imagine it being a short form of WinDY’S, because like wind, the Canucks really blow.But I doubt that’s it.

    Look up 3 posts ^^^

  40. Pastor of Disaster says:

    steveb12344,

    Thanks, I started writing before Gerta posted. I’m trailing the play, just like our beloved hockey team.

  41. russ99 says:

    I’m still dismayed by the makeup of players in Bakersfield, too many bottom six grinder types and not enough skill.

    Back in the days of Cape Breton through Hamilton and that failed year in Edmonton, the Oilers always had a few good offensive prospects on the farm.

    Seems like that’s not happened much in Springfield, OKC and so far in Bakersfield. The lack of prospects that can step in and give some production at a cheap cap number when someone is hurt is a big problem, and could be bigger this year with obvious holes at RW/C

    We shouldn’t be bringing in overagers to play on the top 6 in the AHL, its counterproductive. Kids who can step up need those minutes.

  42. Pescador says:

    Pastor of Disaster: This is the question I’ve been meaning to ask for months and months and never had the guts!I always imagine it being a short form of WinDY’S, because like wind, the Canucks really blow.But I doubt that’s it.

    I always thought it was short for
    Dysfunction

  43. Pescador says:

    Jethro Tull: May I respectfully suggest Carolina Drama by the Raconteurs/Jack White as tomorrow’s GDT?

    No Racoons allowed

  44. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide:
    Bruce: I mentioned that in this morning’s article. The Oilers had great possession numbers, and as G mentioned in the comments section things were not as dire as the score indicated. I do think the team had poor moments but there were good things.

    Well I read the morning post which showed mostly good individual stats for the players but I didn’t recall reading the team totals; moreover I was struck by how those percentages in what I call the “six-pack stats” kept getting better in the more important categories until THUD! 2 for 6 against.

    Just like one of those ball games where youy outhit the other guys 11-5 but lose because they got a walk, an error and a 3-run homer while your guys went 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position. It happens, no reason to be happy about it but no reason to jump off a cliff either.

  45. Bruce McCurdy says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    – Thanks: this is a fancy-stats way of stating: “man our goalie sucked”!

    Yeah, & of saying “their goalie was good”. Lehner played by far the best game we have seen from any goalie so far, for or against. He made a number of outstanding stops.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Nice post Bruce.

    I agree.

    I stayed off twitter all day because the Legions of Gloom were all out in full force calling for Chia’s head and tweeting incessantly how every Oiler was terrible.

    It was awful.

    Stayed out of the morning thread for the same reason.

    Thanks, & yep. I’m worried the fan base has become so hysterical that every loss is treated like a full fledged catastrophe. Hockey players are used to pressure but around here it seems like 1000 pounds PSI too many days.

    Woodguy: Team HDCF%
    Vancouver Canucks 67.74
    Toronto Maple Leafs 66.67
    Edmonton Oilers 66.67

    Vancouver, Toronto, Edmonton. Hands up, those who saw THAT coming. The three worst teams in the NHL last season, now 1-2-3 in a couple of key team stats.

    Odd too how HDSC is consistently several percentage points higher for each team than regular old scoring chances. One wonders if NST is still calibrating to get to WOI standards, or if this is just small sample size at a spectacular extreme. 67% is off the charts.

  47. Alpine says:

    jp: 2nd last in SCF% last year. This year’s # can’t be real.

    It isn’t. But those guys are good and the Canucks might not be as shitty as people think. Like they’re bad, but not Buffalo 2013-15 bad.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Well I read the morning post which showed mostly good individual stats for the players but I didn’t recall reading the team totals; moreover I was struck by how those percentages in what I call the “six-pack stats” kept getting better in the more important categories until THUD! 2 for 6 against.

    Just like one of those ball games where youy outhit the other guys 11-5 but lose because they got a walk, an error and a 3-run homer while your guys went 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position. It happens, no reason to be happy about it but no reason to jump off a cliff either.

    Too true, although there were some defining moments in the game that would be concerning if they continued (Oscar had a tough moment, Darnell too, plus some defensive wobbly decisions). As I noted in the post:

    It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events. Such was the case last night.

    For me, that was the story last night. Oscar clear, Darnell clear, Talbot boner, and a lot of good work gets left behind.

  49. kinger_OIL says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    Nugeis one of my favorites but what do we do with him if he gets 35 points this year and is 43 percent in the dot?

    – If he does that: find a new favorite player…

  50. Oilspill says:

    In this game the difference was Lehner. Yes there were many gaffs but in the end the goalie was the difference maker.

    Lowetide: Too true, although there were some defining moments in the game that would be concerning if they continued (Oscar had a tough moment, Darnell too, plus some defensive wobbly decisions). As I noted in the post:

    It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events. Such was the case last night.

    For me, that was the story last night. Oscar clear, Darnell clear, Talbot boner, and a lot of good work gets left behind.

  51. Frank the dog says:

    The fact remains that you can spin anything any way. Eakins team opened a season with good corsi ratings. Where did that get him?
    The Oilers simply provided a big fat Deja vu against Buffalo. I’m glad Hall wasn’t there last night because many people (in all honesty, myself included) would have found a way to attribute this to him.
    But it’s clearly not Taylor, because he isn’t there.
    I actually don’t care why they filled their depends. I have no reservoir of tolerance left for that type of behavior. It’s not that they lost. It’s how they played, listless, uncoordinated, pathetic.
    Once again, they’ve become Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates.

    So yes, I expect that if they are in fact a halfway decent team they will come out angry and rip up the Hurricanes. A hard fought loss will simply be evidence of another year of uos and downs of a team with a long way to go.

  52. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I’m not one for groupthink as you know, but I think we can all agree that was a bad loss last night. I had a bad feeling when browsing yesterday’s comments section reading comments like “remember the bad ol’ days, we’d always blow a game like this one, haha” & I’m going “what makes anybody confident the bad ol’ days aren’t still in full force & effect? 2 games??” …& immediately started having a bad feeling about the game.

    So, if we all agree that was a stinker of a game, how can we explain this?

    Stat ……… F …. A …. F%
    —–
    Corsi …… 58 … 44 … 57%
    Fenwick . 43 … 33 … 57%
    Shots ….. 33 … 24 … 58%
    SC ……… 31 … 18 … 63%
    HDSC …. 19 …. 8 …. 70%
    —–
    Goals …… 2 ….. 6 …. 25%

    That’s from natural stat trick, who list things the same way I sometimes do, from largest sample/least average danger right on up. It shows increasing levels of dominance by the Oilers, from very good Corsi to even better scoring chances & HDSC. Bear in mind this is from all situations, which includes 6 Buffalo powerplays (or was it 60?) to Edmonton’s 1.

    Then thud! 2 for 6 against in the only count that really matters.

    If that’s a bad game maybe things really Are looking up.

    Obviously the Oilers got piss-pounded by PDO — maybe one thing we actually can all agree upon is you are not going to win games with a PDO of 0811. And it’s always worth noting the presence of extreme-PDO’s evil twin, score effects, which often rear their heads together. So that might have bumped the Oilers’ #s a little. Still, creating 70% of the high-danger scoring chances will win a lot of games, this just happened to be one where the Oilers couldn’t execute the shot, or the save.

    Great post and those numbers totally match what my eyes saw as well. I stay away now after losses like that. Narrative central. WG’s season HD stats match what I’ve seen so far as well. Lots of good stuff in these early times. I’ll go back to bitching about goalering now.

  53. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    If you’re wonder how the SCF% looked last year:

    (I’ve noted playoff teams with “**” and mentioned PDO for teams who made it/didn’t and were on the side of the ledger where you’d expect them to be in)

    TeamSCF%
    Los Angeles Kings56.29 **
    San Jose Sharks55.28**
    Pittsburgh Penguins54.26**
    Nashville Predators53.96**
    Dallas Stars52.98**
    Detroit Red Wings52.32**
    Tampa Bay Lightning52.23**
    St Louis Blues52.07 **
    Toronto Maple Leafs51.7 – no, PDO of 983
    Columbus Blue Jackets51.25 – no PDO of 997
    Washington Capitals50.96**
    Anaheim Ducks50.78**
    Montreal Canadiens50.43 -no PDO of 993
    Chicago Blackhawks50.2 **
    Florida Panthers49.98 **
    Winnipeg Jets49.96
    Edmonton Oilers49.94
    Boston Bruins49.54
    Carolina Hurricanes49.23
    Calgary Flames49
    Philadelphia Flyers48.84
    Minnesota Wild48.21 ** PDO of 1008
    Buffalo Sabres48.05
    New York Islanders47.58
    New York Rangers47.09 ** PDO of 1024
    Arizona Coyotes47.09
    New Jersey Devils46.92
    Ottawa Senators46.75
    Vancouver Canucks45.07
    Colorado Avalanche42.37

    So most of the bestSCF% make the playoffs unless the PDO is wonky.

    CBJ ran very cold with a low PDO to start the season and actually ended it well, so their PDO doesn’ quite reflect the year.

    Conversely NYR PDO’s their way to the playoffs (again) on the back of Lundqvist.

    MIN was just kind of weird and snuck in.

    On the whole though, its a pretty telling stat.

    Gold Jerry.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Of Note, the Carolina Hurricanes are last in SCF%.
    Early days but interesting.

  55. stevezie says:

    Frank the dog: Eakins team opened a season with good corsi ratings. Where did that get him?

    And some of the worst goaltending i can remember.

    Maybe that crushed team confidence in the system.

    Or maybe his system created high percentage chances, and confirmation bias coloured my opinion of the goaltending?

    Confounding variables, man. Great term.

  56. G Honey Pie Sugar Bunch says:

    Bruce McCurdy: One wonders if NST is still calibrating to get to WOI standards, or if this is just small sample size at a spectacular extreme. 67% is off the charts.

    FWIW, DangerFen which in effect blends and weights Fenwick, scoring chances, and high danger chances, had the Oilers at 66% that game.

    It’s quite normal to see wide extremes across the league early, and then it narrows dramatically between games 10 and 20. Ditto for PDO.

    Ye old regression to the meat is not quite as dependable as death and taxes, but it’s a close third.

  57. PigeonCamera says:

    Gerta Rauss: It was a Dennis-ism from years ago mocking the Dynasty Canuck teams…ie:Dys

    Just to add some background: This was from the Tommy Salo Oilers days, where the Canucks (at their cheapest and dirtiest) were constantly kicking our teeth in, and a couple of fans would come to Oilfans on the regular, trolling their hearts out. With an air of, Stanley’s are coming, count on it. And each year, they’d flame out early in the playoffs. Dennis (posting under his Matts monicker) started calling them the Dy’s, short for Dynasties, since the team and the fans acted like they’d won several cup. I think a high point for this was when one hopeless Vancouver fan insisted that “speculation is fairly certain” that the Canucks were going to win something or other. Along with “Dy’s,” “speculation is fairly certain” was used by Oiler fans for a long, long time. I get a chuckle every time I see Dy’s…it makes me happy that they never, ever won anything, and their future really does look bleak. Add in a Jake Virtannen who looks like he might seriously be channelling Matt Cooke, and there’s a lovely bit of karma going on there.

    Your resident forums historian,
    PC

  58. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Too true, although there were some defining moments in the game that would be concerning if they continued (Oscar had a tough moment, Darnell too, plus some defensive wobbly decisions). As I noted in the post:

    It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events. Such was the case last night.

    For me, that was the story last night. Oscar clear, Darnell clear, Talbot boner, and a lot of good work gets left behind.

    Yes, this. Exactly right.

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