GOING NORTH

The Edmonton Oilers may or may not be a 5-1-0 team in quality, but they are a 5-1-0 in reality—and that is what counts. It was a strong road game in Winnipeg, under difficult circumstances, and from what we can tell everyone emerged healthy. A good day.

WHAT IS HAPPENING???, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 2-4-0, goal differential -4
  • Oilers in October 2016: 5-1-0, goal differential +7

This is officially a good start, and at this point it is reasonable to suggest the Oilers should be expected to finish the month in a very good spot. Before the season, I suggested 5-3-1 in the first nine games, but perhaps 6-2-1 is in the wind. What a fun way to start the season after so many years of Groundhog Day. I haven’t heard ”I Got You Babe” all season, nor have I thought about Andie MacDowell one time. A busy, tough week ahead, but this has been a very good seven days for Edmonton.

  • Todd McLellan: We’re a growth team, I wouldn’t consider us a championship team or anything like that right now, we’re still a growth team—we’re learning how to do things.

DEFENSE LAST NIGHT

defense-last-night

  • Klefbom—Larsson were incredible yesterday, winning their minutes across the board. They played most with the McDavid line, facing the Scheifele line (seven minutes) and the Byfuglien pairing (6.5 minutes). That is the heart of the order, ladies and men, and the pairing did well. Larsson had four hits, btw, I know that pleases some people. I don’t really care, unless they also contribute to separating the puck from opponent. My observation of Larsson is that does in fact occur with regularity. Four shots for Klefbom.
  • Sekera—Russell spent a lot of time with McDavid’s line too, and against names like Wheeler/Ehlers and that is some tough territory,too. I liked their game, save for a point in the first period where the pairing could not get the puck out of their own zone. This duo is a key element in Edmonton’s improved defensive structure.
  • Nurse—Gryba played most with the Draisatl—Maroon—Puljujarvi line, and against Mattias—Armia—Lowry—and lost possession 5×5 at about a 0-5 clip. That is a battle Edmonton should win, but there were some difficult moments for sure. Three blocked shots for Gryba and six hits.
  • I am not certain how much score effects had to do with these numbers, but will say I loved the top pairing and saw good things in both the second and third duos.
  • Nurse had the only point among defenders, a really nice goal.
  • Oscar Klefbom leads the way in terms of possession, Larsson and Nurse also showing well via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

forwards-last-night

  • Lander—Letestu—Pitlick went 4-2 together at Corsi 5×5, and of course Letestu scored a shorthanded and winning goal. That is a solid performance from the 4line, raising a question. What do you do when Matt Hendricks and Iiro Pakarinen return? I think this line, as is, has a story to tell.
  • Maroon—Draisaitl—Puljujarvi had a good game, perhaps less offensive than you would like but they had some good looks too. A total of nine shots on goal—four each by Leon and Jesse—give some encouragement for this line. This was a road game, and they sawed off possession against the Matthias line and the Chariot—but also spent five 5×5 minutes against Byfuglien. Seriously.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Kassian had a fine game, including a dandy goal that got all three men a crooked number in the boxcars. Poo and Nuge also spent a lot of time on the PK and I saw the line very good. Can Kassian play this far up for extended periods? Answer is….maybe. BP has not been himself this season, but that cool back pass to Kassian is a little more of what we have come to expect.
  • Lucic—McDavid—Eberle lost the Corsi and HDSC battle, something we haven’t seen much this season. They were fine with the top two pairings, but 1-4 with Gryba and 2-4 with Nurse. That is your hiccup. McDavid played against Tyler Myers for 13 minutes, by the way. McDavid was 8-10 against the tall man.
  • I hope they keep Puljujarvi, but this is probably close. If Hendricks comes back before the kid scores again, suspect the decision is going to be fairly easy. He looks good, but has some wobbly own-zone passes in his game.

CHIARELLI

Peter Chiarelli’s first Boston season saw his team finish with 76 points but in year two the club spiked to 94 points. What changed? Claude Julien replaced Dave Lewis, and the minor league system was producing insane talent for the organization:

  • 2006-07 rookies Phil Kessel and Mark Stuart
  • 2007-08 rookies Milan Lucic, David Krejci, Vladimir Sobotka
  • 2008-09 rookies Blake Wheeler, Matt Hunwick
  • 2009-10 rookies Tuukka Rask, Johnny Boychuk
  • 2010-11 rookies Brad Marchand, Tyler Seguin, Adam McQuaid

That is a stunning five-year run of procurement, and lots of this is luck and some of it (Boychuk, etc) is via good moves by the general manager. If you look at those names, pretty easy to see how a championship can come from the group—when added to Zdeno Chara, Tim Thomas and Patrice Bergeron.

  • 2015-16 rookies Connor McDavid, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse
  • 2016-17 rookies Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Matt Benning

Edmonton needs to keep adding, and Connor McDavid changes everything. That said, the college procurement is already emerging as a key element, and if you look at early Condors scoring it is pretty clear the emerging talent in the minors are the college men—Matt Benning, Nick Ellis, Drake Caggiula when he gets there—and the draft picks (save Jujhar Khaira, Laurent Brossoit) are going to get shut out in the next 18 months. If you are an Oilers prospect and in the middle of an entry-level deal signed when Chiarelli took over, this probably won’t end well.

  1. RD Matt Benning 2gp, 1-1-2 (rookie)
  2. L Joey Benik 3gp, 2-0-2 (rookie)
  3. R Patrick Russell 3gp, 0-2-2 (rookie)
  4. R Jaedon Descheneau 3gp, 0-1-1 (rookie)
  5. G Nick Ellis 2gp, 2.53 .925 (rookie)

The Condors have five rookies who are playing a lot, four of them college men and the other an AHL contract who plays ahead of the draft picks. Jujhar Khaira, Mitchell Moroz, Greg Chase, David Musil, Joey Laleggia and the other picks are populating less prominent spots in the roster and that trend is likely to continue. Peter Chiarelli’s procurement model basically ignores what was here on the day of his arrival—not unusual for a new general manager, but this is drastic. Here is the 50-man (46) when he took over, with gonzo strikethrough:

  1. G Ben Scrivens
  2. G Tyler Bunz (RFA)
  3. G Frans Tuohimaa
  4. D Nikita Nikitin
  5. D Justin Schultz
  6. D Martin Marincin
  7. D Keith Aulie
  8. D Brad Hunt
  9. D Martin Gernat
  10. C Boyd Gordon
  11. C Travis Ewanyk
  12. C Kellen Lain
  13. L Taylor Hall
  14. L Luke Gazdic
  15. L Matt Fraser
  16. L Ryan Hamilton
  17. L Curtis Hamilton
  18. L Kale Kessy
  19. R Nail Yakupov
  20. R Teddy Purcell
  21. R Rob Klinkhammer
  22. R Andrew Miller

That is basically half of the inherited 50-man, and if you are Mitch Moroz or Greg Chase or David Musil there can be little doubt about how this story goes. This doesn’t always work, sometimes a prospect cast away turns out (Martin Marincin a recent example) and PC has traded some substantial talent in Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz. Still, the roster reflects the manager and the coach and we should expect more of the same. For those who don’t see enough skill arriving, I give you Drake Caggiula via college and the top picks in his two drafts (Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyler Benson). Can this Oilers team hit 94 points this year?

TUXEDO JUNCTION

Nothing cleans up a look—seriously—like a tuxedo. If you are a younger male, you may not have had the opportunity to parade around in one, but a tuxedo that has been fitted and altered can make even the most unusual frame look spiffy. Seriously. For the Edmonton Oilers, Connor McDavid is their tuxedo. When the other lines hit the ice, the look is basically Hawaiian shirt and loud sweat shorts. McDavid? Perfectly cut tuxedo, every shift. Here are the WOWYs for Edmonton’s defensemen and McDavid:

  • Darnell Nurse: 62.3 with, 39.8 without
  • Oscar Klefbom: 50.0 with, 48.7 without
  • Eric Gryba: 50.0 with, 40.3 without
  • Andrej Sekera: 49.3 with, 42.0 without
  • Kris Russell: 48.9 with, 43.8 without
  • Adam Larsson: 48.6 with, 48.4 without

Klefbom—Larsson show little effect, the rest is pronounced. It is interesting to see that the gap in TOI: Klefbom pairing 35-40 minutes with; Sekera pairing 36-43 minutes with; Nurse pairing 14-24 minutes with McDavid. The top pairing with the McDavid line is doing damn well, and you know it is against tough opp.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, a rocking show with a heavy Oilers theme. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Outdoor game, Canada’s teams surging, Anaheim and Lindholm.
  • Antony Bent, Soccer Insider. EPL Table is fantastic, stories galore and Man U. is struggling.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. A great WS matchup, Oilers rolling, Eskimos crossover? and last night’s NFL game.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue and the SuperFan. Oilers are a fast train, can they keep it up?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Good times!

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142 Responses to "GOING NORTH"

  1. JJS says:

    Of the 22 players with strikethroughs, how many would you pick?

    We had a really bad organization for a really long time…

    Fresh air

  2. Lowetide says:

    JJS:
    Of the 22 players with strikethroughs, how many would you pick?

    We had a really bad organization for a really long time…

    Fresh air

    A few, but for me the point here is that Chiarelli is building a team that fits his and McLellan’s style. Whitey Herzog and Earl Weaver won WS rings, and their teams were similar in very few ways.

  3. frjohnk says:

    A big reason this team has 5 wins in 6 games is because of Talbot.

    Now one glance at his .919 save % would suggest otherwise but the Buffalo game distorts that number.

    He is .942 when taking that Buffalo game out.

    In the 5 wins, Talbot has given the Oilers a quality start each time.
    Quality Start = In order to record a Quality Start, the starting goalie must stop at least a league average number of shots ( 91.7% ), or play at least as well as a replacement-level goalie (88.5%) while allowing two goals or fewer. ( From Rob Vollman)

    Over the rest of the season I would expect his quality start % to come down from 83% to somewhere between 55% and 65% ( this is average to very good), even though his save % could increase.

    Talbot is a big reason why this team has had lift off in this early season.

    Goaltending, its a thing.

  4. Pouzar says:

    From my season ticket holder Jets buddy at the game:

    “Would have been nice to hear the crowd cheer one Jets goal…cuz it was a damn loud cheer when the Oilers scored.”

    Music!

  5. McNuge93 says:

    Oilers don’t suck anymore!!! Oilers don’t suck anymore!! Yeah!

  6. OilClog says:

    5-1.. They didn’t fluke it out, didn’t sneak out of anyone’s barns feeling saved by the grace of Gord.

    They put out quality performances and were rewarded for it.

    This team is quality.

    If the sky starts falling in November so be it, but this team has done everything and more to start the season in a quality fashion.

    23 goals tied with Chicago for the lead by a wide margin, yet Chicago hasn’t won a road game and is only +1 in differential. Oilers are +7 with a 6-2 defeat mixed in. 21-10 in their victories.

    That’s Quality.

  7. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    frjohnk,

    I agree on the last two games but the first three games were a tad wobbly if my memory serves me correctly (a goal in the first minute in each isn’t exactly a strong start). That being said he made the saves when they counted and his interview after yesterday’s game showed a very calm and collected goaler/new dad. Here’s hoping he and the team can use their mini-break wisely and show up to knock off the Caps on Wednesday!

  8. DBO says:

    They are still growing. Love that the team recognizes it. No talk of being happy with everyone on roster. And I love that we will actually have a competition for playing time. When was last time we had that probelm?

    Still not sold on Kassian as 2RW. But if that works, and you move Pitlick up to 3RW when Hendricks is back. It allows you to send Puljarvi and Caggulia down to play big minutes in minors. And an upgrade at 3 RD would be nice, with Gryba as the extra man. When Davidson is back, guess Benning gets sent down. Be nice to have Davidson to really stabilize the 3rd pairing, but for now it has been OK, but Davidsson a clear upgrade on Gryba.

    Only real glaring issue I still see is the PP. Is the boomer from the point that important? Looks like it may be.

  9. Pouzar says:

    Looking forward to the WSH game but the OTT is very intriguing since they have very similar Corsi and HDCF rankings as the Oilers. The Oilers score adjusted Corsi is better but OTT has a slight advantage in HDCF. Should be interesting.

  10. frjohnk says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    frjohnk,

    I agree on the last two games but the first three games were a tad wobbly if my memory serves me correctly (a goal in the first minute in each isn’t exactly a strong start). That being said he made the saves when they counted and his interview after yesterday’s game showed a very calm and collected goaler/new dad. Here’s hoping he and the team can use their mini-break wisely and show up to knock off the Caps on Wednesday!

    Talbot has played very well to give them a chance in 5 of the 6 games.

    The McDavid effect is real.

    The defense is the best since EBERLE was a Regina Pat

    We are getting scoring from the bottom 6.

    But if we had Scrivens in net instead of Talbot, we dont have 5 wins.

  11. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar:
    Looking forward to the WSH game but the OTT is very intriguing since they have very similar Corsi and HDCF rankings as the Oilers. The Oilers score adjusted Corsi is better but OTT has a slight advantage in HDCF. Should be interesting.

    Could be an exciting game. Id love for the Oilers and Sens to open it up. 7-4 Oilers?

  12. Ducey says:

    frjohnk:
    A big reason this team has 5 wins in 6 games is because of Talbot.

    Now one glance at his .919 save % would suggest otherwise but the Buffalo game distorts that number.

    He is .942 when taking that Buffalo game out.

    In the 5 wins, Talbot has given the Oilers a quality start each time.
    Quality Start =In order to record a Quality Start, the starting goalie must stop at least a league average number of shots ( 91.7% ), or play at least as well as a replacement-level goalie (88.5%) while allowing two goals or fewer.( From Rob Vollman)

    Over the rest of the season I would expect his quality start % to come down from 83% to somewhere between 55% and 65% ( this is average to very good), even though his save % could increase.

    Talbot is a big reason why this team has had lift off in this early season.

    Goaltending, its a thing.

    Very true. But they are also leading the league in GF with 23.

    In other news the Flames are 29th in the league (above Superkid’s Coyotes) at 6-1-4-1. They are a at a league worst 27 GA

    They play CHI and STL back to back on the road today and tomorrow. They could be 8-1-6-1 by Tuesday night.

    Its early, but that would be a bad first 10% of the season.

  13. Pouzar says:

    When someone explains to me how consistently outshooting your opponent in the high percentage areas doesn’t translate into wins……..otherwise I’d say 5-1 is pretty deserving especially since going into last night they were 15th in the league in PDO.

  14. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    A big reason this team has 5 wins in 6 games is because of Talbot.

    Now one glance at his .919 save % would suggest otherwise but the Buffalo game distorts that number.

    He is .942 when taking that Buffalo game out.

    In the 5 wins, Talbot has given the Oilers a quality start each time.
    Quality Start =In order to record a Quality Start, the starting goalie must stop at least a league average number of shots ( 91.7% ), or play at least as well as a replacement-level goalie (88.5%) while allowing two goals or fewer.( From Rob Vollman)

    Over the rest of the season I would expect his quality start % to come down from 83% to somewhere between 55% and 65% ( this is average to very good), even though his save % could increase.

    Talbot is a big reason why this team has had lift off in this early season.

    Goaltending, its a thing.

    Where can I get the 5 on 5 numbers?

    I’ve been his biggest critic but hot dayum he had the calm feet yesterday.
    He made it look easy!

  15. jm363561 says:

    Agree with pretty much all the points made above. I thought Nurse had a better game than the stats show – he seems to slowly be getting his game sorted out. The Predators PP is 9 / 19 = 47% – if we can get ours working like that plan the parade.

  16. JustWatt says:

    One thing that stands out to me is that jump in the Bruins season totals from season 1 to 2. 76-94. Is there any way that last years team doesn’t hit 76 points if they have average injuries instead of catastrophic? I’m pretty sure they would.

    With the Bruinization of the Oil, 97, fast start for the good guys, stumbling out of the gate for a lot of the rest of the division, who says something in the neighborhood of 94 is impossible?

    Playoffs, I dare not speak thy name! (But I’m thinking it)

  17. Richard S.S. says:

    The Washington game on Wednesday could be a winnable challenge for the team. The seven games that follow are eminently winnable because I don’t think any Team is that much better than the Oilers.

  18. doritogrande says:

    Tuxedo:

    I may be new style here, but I’ve never worn, nor never seen the need for a tuxedo.

    A tailored suit, on the other hand, is required wardrobe material for any male over 17, even if you only use it once a year.

  19. Pouzar says:

    JustWatt: Playoffs, I dare not speak thy name! (But I’m thinking it)

    I can’t even allow the thought with the BS injury luck this team has. This shit has to normalize sometime.

  20. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    If you take away every goalies worst games their numbers look way better. Hes looked good the last 2 games but the first 3 where ok

  21. digger50 says:

    I’d say the decision on PJ will be made based on the kid as much as based on his game.

    I think they want him up so they can look after him. And will press box him many games just to drag out his 9 games over a longer period. Unlikely they send him down, bounce him back and forth. He stays up or he goes down, settles in and stays down.

    My bet is he stays up.

  22. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk:
    A big reason this team has 5 wins in 6 games is because of Talbot.

    Now one glance at his .919 save % would suggest otherwise but the Buffalo game distorts that number.

    He is .942 when taking that Buffalo game out.

    In the 5 wins, Talbot has given the Oilers a quality start each time.
    Quality Start =In order to record a Quality Start, the starting goalie must stop at least a league average number of shots ( 91.7% ), or play at least as well as a replacement-level goalie (88.5%) while allowing two goals or fewer.( From Rob Vollman)

    Over the rest of the season I would expect his quality start % to come down from 83% to somewhere between 55% and 65% ( this is average to very good), even though his save % could increase.

    Talbot is a big reason why this team has had lift off in this early season.

    Goaltending, its a thing.

    Splitting hairs, neither of Talbot’s wins vs the Flames met Vollman’s definition of a quality start. .902 , .914 with 3+ GA in each. While I might quibble with Rob’s definitions, accepting them at face value Talbot’s QS% is 3/6=.500.

  23. npanciroli says:

    After yesterdays game, I officially became a fan of the Hall for Larsson trade.

  24. Bruce Wayne says:

    Pouzar:
    When someone explains to me how consistently outshooting your opponent in the high percentage areas doesn’t translate into wins……..otherwise I’d say 5-1 is pretty deserving especially since going into last night they were 15th in the league in PDO.

    The Oilers aren’t consistently outshooting their opponents from the high percentage areas.

    Here is the dangerous Fenwick at even strength from the first six games:

    Jets: 46
    Blues: 51
    Canes: 32
    Sabres: 66
    Flames: 46
    Flames: 48

    Now they’ve been ahead, so score effects are in play, but it simply isn’t true they are outchancing the other teams. It has been pretty even, which is itself progress.

  25. Pajamah says:

    If we refer to guys like Korpikoski and Schultz as boat anchors on possession, then McDavid is the helium balloons from “Up”, strong enough to rip West Edmonton Mall out of the concrete.

    I am convinced this man will absolutely will this team to a Stanley or 2.

  26. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! LT says: “PC has traded some substantial talent in Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz”

    – It would be remiss to not add that PC has also acquired some substantial talent: “Sekera, Larsson, Russel, Lucic, Maroon, Kassian.

    – Getting rid of Yak Hall and Schultz while adding 3 bonafide D, and 3 bonafide F’s is the real story + McDavid = turnaround….

    – You have to give to get, and we got more than we gave, for sure….

  27. Pouzar says:

    From Bob McKenzie;

    “The old rule I use is don’t get too wrapped up in anything you see for the first two weeks of the season,” described the veteran Insider while on Montreal’s TSN 690. “But by (Week) Three it’s starting to look like that’s the way it’s going to be, and after four weeks you can pretty much book it in terms of what you see is what you get.”

    Man…4 weeks? Long live the Bettman point system.

  28. frjohnk says:

    Just a snippet of how the Oilers have played at different times when tied, leading or trailing by 1 and how they stack up in the league.

    Oilers have played 274 minutes 5 on 5 all scores
    23rd in CF% with 47%
    19th in SF% with 48.9%
    14th in SCF% with 51.5%
    6th in HDCF% with 56.1%

    Oilers have played 82 minutes tied
    24th in CF% with 45.6%
    16th in SF% with 47.7%
    8th in SCF% with 56.8%
    12th in HDCF% with 53.7%

    Oilers have played 51 minutes up by 1
    12th in CF% with 48%
    6th in SF% with 54.4%
    13th in SCF% with 50%
    9th in HDCF% with 61.1%

    Oilers have played 29 minutes down by 1
    22nd in CF% with 50%
    22nd in SF% with 47.7%
    12th in SCF% with 54.5%
    8th in HDCF% with 64.3%

    Now its early, but the teams that have made the playoffs in the last few years that had poor advanced stats( Avs and Flames) had even worse possession than the Oilers have right now AND were also at the bottom of the league in scoring chances.

    Calgary 14-15 all scores 5 on 5
    28th in corsi with 44.5%
    27th in shots for % with 46.4%
    27th in SCF% with 44.9%
    27th in HDCF% with 44.8%

    Compare that with the Oilers so far
    23rd in CF% with 47%
    19th in SF% with 48.9%
    14th in SCF% with 51.5%
    6th in HDCF% with 56.1%

    Id feel a bit more comfortable if the corgis were better.

    But outchancing the other teams is definitely a turn North. And we are outchancing the other teams in every score state except in one in where we are even. Thats huge.

  29. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Splitting hairs, neither of Talbot’s wins vs the Flames met Vollman’s definition of a quality start. .902 ,.914 with 3+ GA in each. While I might quibble with Rob’s definitions, accepting them at face value Talbot’s QS% is 3/6=.500.

    I got the goalie numbers from hockey reference http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2017_goalies.html

    And used the definition from Robs page.

    Could be that average save% is lower this year and that is why he is credited with 5 “quality starts”

    Ill check.

    EDIT: According to hockey reference, average save % is .903 so far this year.

    EDIT 2.0: Talbot has had 4 quality starts when using average save % of .903.

    0.914
    0.939
    0.971
    1

    One really bad start
    0.739

    One in between ( but looks like they are calling it a quality start)
    0.902

  30. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk,

    Thx for that.

    The money quote for me:

    “AND were also at the bottom of the league in scoring chances.”

  31. fifthcartel says:

    Pouzar,

    Me too. Ottawa also has a suspect defense after Karlsson, but when you have Karlsson he basically acts as McDavid on defense. I’m very excited to see McDavid out against Phaneuf-Ceci (36% CF together) or Borowieki-Wideman (46% CF together).

  32. npanciroli says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    frjohnk,

    How are these high danger numbers so different? Am I missing something?

  33. Oddspell says:

    frjohnk,

    I asked this the other day, but is it possible that those bad possession teams that went to the playoffs started the year with HDCF% comparable to ours, but then normalized as the season went on? i.e. What are the chances that we ARE like those teams while they were winning, and each of those teams HDCF% tanked part way through the season, but they could coast off of the success they built? I seem to remember looong losing streaks for both those teams.

  34. hunter1909 says:

    Methinks:

    Provided the team is for real, and the Oilers make the playoffs with McDavid schooling everyone, the addition of Russell will be viewed as Chiarelli’s sublime moment.

  35. Zeabs93 says:

    Here’s a different, more optimistic view of Talbot’s current play. What if after his twins were born, his whole outlook on life changed?

    Instead of cracking under the pressure like Dubnyk did, he thinks “Holy shit Cam, you’re a father. I now have two human beings that absolutely, 100% depend on me. They need me. If I play lights out this year, I will be well-compensated and by extension my children will have every opportunity to succeed. If I falter, have a poor year, I put not only my career in jeopardy, but my children’s well-being too.”

    Instead of cracking under the pressure, he excels and has a phenomenal year.

    Thoughts? I don’t have kids myself so I don’t know the true feelings of parenthood, but I imagine it can’t all be doom and gloom lol.

  36. hunter1909 says:

    I like to go to opposition fan boards to see their reaction to their team losing to the Oilers.

    Generally the theme is:

    “Without McDavid Oilers can’t win”….

    Or:

    “Our team was in the game, but didn’t get the bounces”.

    Or in other words, Oilers are beating the opposition with a combination of McDavid plus the rest of the team getting most of the bounces.

  37. Confused says:

    Still think plenty of room for improvement.

    Still lots of new faces and moving parts, as the players get more familiar with each other more chemistry should develop.

    Anyone heard any updates on injured players?

  38. frjohnk says:

    Oddspell:
    frjohnk,

    I asked this the other day, but is it possible that those bad possession teams that went to the playoffs started the year with HDCF% comparable to ours, but then normalized as the season went on? i.e. What are the chances that we ARE like those teams while they were winning, and each of those teams HDCF% tanked part way through the season, but they could coast off of the success they built? I seem to remember looong losing streaks for both those teams.

    From what I remember Calgary got outshot and outchanced very regularly from the start to the finish.

  39. Pouzar says:

    Top 2 HDCF% last year:

    1. SJ
    2. PIT

  40. hunter1909 says:

    Zeabs93: Instead of cracking under the pressure like Dubnyk did

    To be fair, every player from Jani Rita through Sam Gagner to Nail Yakupov all had the same constant:

    MacT’s close involvement.

    Times have changed since Chiarelli/McLellan took over. The players no longer have to worry about that fool.

    With Gretzky back on the official OBC list, Talbot could probably kick MacT in the ass in front of the entire team and get nothing but laughter.

  41. Oddspell says:

    Pouzar:
    Top 2 HDCF% last year:

    1. SJ
    2. PIT

    Both those teams had excellent CF% too (especially from the trade deadline). On the other hand, teams with excellent HDCF% but sub-50% CF% last year (ranked by HDCF%) include:

    5. Columbus Blue Jackets

    Also

    7. Montreal Canadiens

    had excellent HDCF%

    That said, both these teams had PDO in the low 900s.

    Genuine question: Were these two teams way better than their records?

  42. frjohnk says:

    npanciroli:
    Bruce Wayne,

    frjohnk,

    How are these high danger numbers so different? Am I missing something?

    Different ways to measure the different advanced stats.

    Here is another one

    Looking at Corsica Hockey and here is expected goals for% for each game so far

    xGF%
    53.4
    49.17
    32.41
    62.84
    48.35
    57.94

    Thats 270 minutes 5 on 5 .

    We were even for 81 minutes
    We were trailing for 77 minutes
    We were leading for 112 minutes

    Yup, thats right people we actually have been leading more than we have been trailing

    *falls over*

  43. Pouzar says:

    Oddspell: Both those teams had excellent CF% too. On the other hand, teams with excellent HDCF% but bad CF% last year (ranked by HDCF%) include:

    5. Columbus Blue Jackets
    7. Montreal Canadiens

    Yes they did. But you CAN get in with one or the other(MIN and FLA) but BOTH is the holy grail.
    Last year we sucked at both. Now these are early times but I am going to keep my eye on both the Corgis and Scoring Chance data.

  44. jm363561 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!LT says: “PC has traded some substantial talent in Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz”

    – It would be remiss to not add that PC has alsoacquired some substantial talent: “Sekera, Larsson, Russel, Lucic, Maroon, Kassian.

    – Getting rid of Yak Hall and Schultz while adding 3 bonafide D, and 3 bonafide F’s is the real story + McDavid = turnaround….

    – You have to give to get, and we got more than we gave, for sure….

    In addition to the players that he let go Chia also gave up the odd pick and $15m (net $5m adjusting for Ference and Nikitin) or so a year ….. and worth every cent so far. Now if (i) Griffin the Reinhart could also turn North, and (ii) a few more wins against elite teams, he would really be on track to be a rock star. Early days but Pitlick is on track to be this year’s Davidson – another good move by Chia to give him another contract when most expected him to be cut.

  45. Oddspell says:

    Pouzar,

    Very fair. I remain optimistic. Last question: I know there was data that team records year over year generally normalized to CF%, do we have any data about how HDCF% is maintained year over year? Should records generally regress to HDCF% or will HDCF% regress to CF%? (Or some third option?)

  46. Pouzar says:

    Oddspell:
    Pouzar,

    Very fair. I remain optimistic. Last question: I know there was data that team records year over year generally normalized to CF%, do we have any data about how HDCF% is maintained year over year? Should records generally regress to HDCF% or will HDCF% regress to CF%? (Or some third option?)

    Not sure…maybe the geeks? 🙂

    What’s also interesting is that only 2 teams made the playoffs last year finishing outside of top 16 in both CF% and HDCF%…the Rangers and Islanders who were ranked 1st and 9th in PDO respectively.

  47. Wolfie says:

    Overheard in the crowd yesterday… “McDavid is a bum!” Which is the ultimate compliment given the fact I used to hear Jets fans yell the exact same thing to Gretzky when the Oilers of yore came to town!

  48. khildahl says:

    Wolfie:
    Overheard in the crowd yesterday… “McDavid is a bum!”Which is the ultimate compliment given the fact I used to hear Jets fans yell the exact same thing to Gretzky when the Oilers of yore came to town!

    I’ll take 19 more bums, please.

  49. Confused says:

    Much, much more face-off practices will fix many numbers.

    We need everybody to be at least high 40s — come on Nuge you can do it.

    Get Lander to teach McD, Nuge and Drai

    James

  50. böök¡je says:

    Remember that moment when Lucy convinces Charlie Brown that this time she is totally serious and that she isn’t going to pull the ball away at the last second.

  51. treevojo says:

    böök¡je:
    Remember that moment when Lucy convinces Charlie Brown that this time she is totally serious and that she isn’t going to pull the ball away at the last second.

    Remember the story of the boy who cried wolf.

    Maybe just maybe, Mcdavid is actually the wolf.

  52. Fog of Warts says:

    nor have I thought about Andie MacDowell

    A tuxedo? That would involve planning ahead. Or so I’m told.

    On the other hand, your basic black shirt cleans up real nice at any old rusty fuel stop (once a man masters the smell test, he never looks back). That—and a trunk full of game tape … er … dress rehearsal … footage … er … solo footage … will keep you safely away from this guy for all the days of a long summer.

    No, that first week back in town—after a decade of crickets and dust in the wind—it’s Elizabeth who bears tweezing from mind, that old coquette and CT who blew said mind in a hard lot hurricane nineten years ago.

    As for Andie, your groundhog, or Andie, her own groundhog (of the never-yet marital chalise—wild coyote predator, seeing stars jet style), the trick either way is to break replay and finally get the girl. (At the price of a sock to the kisser, Suspender Bowman, above, will appear, otherwise unaided, to aid your quest. Pro tip: keep your fingers out of the porch door. While you can complete your final mission with no working fingers on one hand, it’s not advisable.)

    ———

    [*] Concerning CT: work it out, Romeo, I know you can.

  53. knighttown says:

    Great post today LT.

    I try not to post often unless I can suggest something new-ish. It’s always just assumed that the NHL is a vaccum and that the only way to have a better record is by being a better team. What if the other teams are worse?

    A few years ago…like 4 maybe…i suggested that another complete rebuild was an awful choice but perhaps the only choice…because of the damned strength of the teams due to the greatest draft class cohort (03-07) in (maybe) history.

    It is almost a parallel with the Baby Boomers place in modern history.

    The NHL is always run by 28-32 years but that group of 2003’s came out of the 2005 lockout like a house on fire. Eric Staal won his cup at 21. Getzlaf and Perry at 22. Crosby and Letang got to their first final at 21 when Malkin was 22 then won the Cup the next year. Then a 24 year old Toews and a 23 year old Kane started winning their Cups over a 24 year old Giroux. Then came the 26 year old Bergeron over a dominant 26 year old Kesler. Then followed by a 27 year old Carter, 25 year old Kopitar and Quick.

    These players took over the NHL early and no matter how much talent was drafted in their wake, the new kids would always be younger and less experienced until the big kids started their decline. Add to that, the new kids (Hall, Nuge, Yak) were not Crosby, Toews and Ovechkin and the timing couldn’t have been more wrong. They kept their foots on our throats.

    Even the mushy middle of the NHL was populated by absolutely fantastic players on some pretty damned good teams who were right in the middle of their primes.

    Webber, Suter and Rinne (2003 and 2004) was probably the golden age in Nashville.

    David Backes along with Oshie, Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk made for formidable St. Louis Blues team.

    Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture supplemented the great Joe Thornton and finally reached their Cup 5 years later than most thought. Another era? Who knows.

    The best bet this year is Stamkos (2008), Hedman (2009) and Kucherov (2011) as it should be.

    Carey Price/Pacioretty/Subban and Jamie Benn/Tyler Seguin are of that younger generation so there time should be now but we’ll see and Montreal dealing Subban for one of the 2003’s seems like the wrong move.

    So on to my point…

    Father Time is still undefeated. That 2003 class is turning 32 this season and they have one pile of miles on the odometer. Some that were great have already been reduced to rubble like Richards and Brown. Even guys like Kopitar and Kane aren’t yet 30 they have played more games than many 35 year olds and this stuff matters.

    If we’re talking the 2020 Stanley Cup the teams that have the best talent from the 2009-2015 drafts should be your best bets.

    2009- Ekman-Larsson (Phx), Hedman (TB), Tavares (NYI), Duchesne (Col)
    2010- Tarasenko (St. L), Hall (NJ), Seguin (Dal)
    2011- Gaudreau (Cal), Landeskog (Col), Kucherov (TB), Nuge (Edm), Palat (TB), Scheifele (Win)
    2012- not much dominant talent Lindholm (Ana)
    2013- Barkov, Mackinnon (too early)

    Outside of Tampa who clearly has accumulated a great group of talent of just the right age it’s pretty wide open and frankly, not all that strong brought down by a weak 2011-2012 group. The 2013’s are OK and the 14’s are maybe a bit less than ok with Draisatl and Ekblad.

    With that little “trough” from 2011-2014 there’s room for someone to jump in and get early success from the 2015 draft class.

    Connor McDavid.

    Sidney Crosby came along behind the greatest draft class of the generation and was always younger than those guys and still has enjoyed tremendous success.

    Connor McDavid is Sidney Crosby and he’s come along after a pretty long stretch without top level, Hall of Fame talent. There are some beauty players in the 2011-2014 classes but even if one or two “ascend” there still isn’t the depth.

    By 2020 the 2003-2006’s will be 32-35 and all except Crosby will be too old to truly carry a team.

    The 2007-08’s will be over 30 and will certainly be on the decline.

    The pretty strong 2009-11’s should run the NHL unchallenged especially with the weak 2012-2014’s.

    But there is a real opportunity here for a generational 2015 (who will always be better than Eichel and older than Matthews or any other kid that follows) supplemented by THREE of the top 2011’s (Nuge, Klefbom and Larsson) and what one redraft said was the top 2014 (Draisaitl) and a very nice 2016 (Puuljujaarvi).

    I sort of see Tampa Bay as 1980’s New York Islanders and Edmonton as, well, Edmonton.

  54. frjohnk says:

    kinger_OIL: – It would be remiss to not add that PC has also acquired some substantial talent: “Sekera, Larsson, Russel, Lucic, Maroon, Kassian.

    Im not in “fire Chia camp” but Im not impressed by him so far either.

    Lucic and Sekera were offered the most money by the Oilers. Im sure the McDavid effect helped plus new arena.

    Russell wanted to go to Calgary and they wanted him back but they could not find the room. His agent knew the Oilers had interest from before.

    These 3 most likely come here even if MacT was GM as we had the cap space to offer the most money, McDavid and new rink and for Russell Oilers are in Alberta ( he wanted to play close to home) Though MacT may have blown his brains out in throwing money at these guys.

    Kassian was and is still a risk. I like this move though.

    Maroon was a very good move.

    Gryba for a 4th was an OK move.

    Talbot for picks was probably his best move.

    Korpikoski for Gordon was a bad move. Chia ” had time for Korpikoski”. So much the Oilers will pay him not to play for this and next year.

    The idea of trading the 16th and the 33rd for a Dman who is ready to make an impact at the NHL level? Great idea. Not having anybody have a current scouting report that would suggest said player is nowhere near being a good NHL player? Terrible. Islanders bloggers knew more about Reinhart than Chia did. Those two picks right now could be nice currency in trade or to have in the prospect cupboard ( those picks could have been busts too, so there is that)

    Hall for Larsson. You only have 1 shot when you use your biggest tradeable bullet. Use, but use wisely. Like most here, I believe it was an overpayment. I like Larsson, he is more physical than I thought, great in his own end, but does not have the elite mobility that most number 1 and number 2 Dmen have and I think that will hamper his ceiling.

    Yak for a bag ( no pucks) Was Yak such a cancer to this team, that Chia needed to get rid of him no matter what? Or was this a mistake in asset evaluation in believing that JP was ready to make a difference and getting rid of Yak was OK? It looks like this team will have a revolving door at 2RW until JP is ready. So far it has not hampered the team too much, but the 2nd line will need a right wing better than what we have moving forward.

    Marincin for a 4th. Now people can debate on how good or bad Marincin is, but he is a NHL player. And a young one. And Babcock speaks highly of him. The gap between Larsson and Marincin is a helluva lot closer to Hall and a 4th.

    He has bolstered the blue line with money ( Russell and Sekera) and by trade ( Gryba and Larsson) These adds were needed. I like these adds.

    He has given us more size with Lucic, Maroon and Kassian and I like that

    I like most of Chia’s draft picks and I like the college signings.

    But he had overpaid in the big moves, Hall, Lucic ( I absolutely love the Lucic add but make no mistake, this contract will hurt us down the road)
    the draft picks for Reinhart ( this is bad because it seems like there was no actual scouting of this player when he was in the AHL)
    Trading a mid 6 right winger who can score when on a skilled line for a bag and now we are looking a for a mid 6 right winger who can score when on a skilled line

    If Im grading him, Id be hard pressed to give him an average grade.

  55. blainer says:

    jm363561:
    Agree with pretty much all the points made above. I thought Nurse had a better game than the stats show – he seems to slowly be getting his game sorted out. The Predators PP is 9 / 19 = 47% – if we can get ours working like that plan the parade.

    I agree. Gryba did not help nurse look even better yesterday IMO.. Gryba was all over the D zone .. often on the wrong side and chasing the play.. reminded me of the Jultzing..

    He does bring that physical element that we need against the big teams like the jets .. but I would really like to see what Benning can do against the caps.

    Really looking forward to Davey’s return as well. Hard to believe this team has depth all of a sudden.

    Goaltending and scoring leads to winning teams.. We have both…

  56. treevojo says:

    frjohnk,

    Agree with most of that.

    Lucic was offered more money elsewhere.

    He was offered 8 years from LA.

    Lucic also stated his connection with chia and belief in chia building a winner was a deciding factor for him.

  57. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar:
    I split my shots into LSC and High scoring chance.
    with 8.5 % shooting % (.915 save%) being the line in the sand.

    Taking a rough split of Corsica’s Data.

    I get .968 Save% for LSC shots
    and
    .838 Save% for HSc shots

    that is 32 goals from 1000 avg LSC shots

    That is 162 Goals from 1000 avg HSC shots

    162/32 = 5.063 times more success from the average HSC shot.

    the other night oilers had 23 shots and 18 were HSC shots.

    Brilliant game Mgmt.

  58. frjohnk says:

    treevojo:
    frjohnk,

    Agree with most of that.

    Lucic was offered more money elsewhere.

    He was offered 8 years from LA.

    Lucic also stated his connection with chia and belief in chia building a winner was a deciding factor for him.

    Pierre LeBrun

    @Real_ESPNLeBrun

    LA Kings made one last offer to Lucic on Thursday: 8 years and $34 million. Lucic got $42 M over 7 yrs in Edm
    4:32 PM – 1 Jul 2016

    I dont doubt there was some sort of connection between the two, but Id say money, McDavid and the new rink were bigger factors.

  59. JustWatt says:

    knighttown,

    My goodness this is unique! What a fantastic narrative! Without dubbing it indubitably true, I think that there is at least a thread of truth here.

    It’s been apparent for a while that while Edmonton was gifted 3 #1OVs consecutively they were certainly not the strongest string of top players like those that could be found in other draft years. And any hope of them coalescing into a contender died (retrospectively) with the hiring of the Silver Fox.

    With McDavid leading the way this team will always have a chance to be a contender, almost regardless of who is at the helm (almost!). My greatest hope is that McDavid lifts this team into the playoffs this year, opening up doors for Chiarelli to supplement him with the remaining pieces needed to become dominant for a few years.

    Super tough to do in the salary cap era but hey I’m clearly dreaming whilst sucking on a tall, icy glass of kool-aid. Dang 5 and 1 tastes good!

  60. Confused says:

    rickithebear,

    Agree completely. Lets stop panicking about LSC shots against.

    Concentrate on HSC and win the battle where it counts.

  61. treevojo says:

    frjohnk: Pierre LeBrun

    @Real_ESPNLeBrun

    LA Kings made one last offer to Lucic on Thursday: 8 years and $34 million. Lucic got $42 M over 7 yrs in Edm
    4:32 PM – 1 Jul 2016

    I dont doubt there was some sort of connection between the two, but Id say money, McDavid and the new rink were bigger factors.

    I didn’t say LA offered the most money just the 8 years.

    Lucic and other reports said he was offered more money elsewhere.

    It was believed to be Montreal from my understanding

  62. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: the other night oilers had 23 shots and 18 were HSC shots.

    You are making the mistake of using high scoring chances as shots.

    Not every chance becomes a shot on net. Some are blocked, some miss the net

    Last year, when looking at shots from the high danger area and high danger chances, teams would have 66% to 78% ( depended on team) of a success rate of high danger chances becoming shots on net

  63. Bruce Wayne says:

    knighttown,

    This is an excellent point (too long to quote–go and read it) that bears repeating. Before it was taken down I was perusing general fanager and it is very clear that the teams that have been dominating the west are both getting old and are hampered by killer contracts. The field is wide, wide, open.

    The team in the West that manages to draft well, make value trades, and avoid killer contracts is positioned to fill this vacuum. The Oilers got a massive headstart with McDavid, but have hurt themselves unnecessarily with the other two.

  64. frjohnk says:

    treevojo: I didn’t say LA offered the most money just the 8 years.

    Lucic and other reports said he was offered more money elsewhere.

    It was believed to be Montreal from my understanding

    Never heard that. I thought Oilers offered the most money.

  65. treevojo says:

    frjohnk,

    I will see if I can find it.

    Another thing I don’t worry about too much anymore is the tail end of these contracts.

    With the way teams have been manipulating the so called long term injuries and players more then happy to be paid in full it doesn’t seem to be as big of an issue.

    The new cba may have something to say about that though.

  66. treevojo says:

    frjohnk,

    Type in “who offered lucic most money” into google.

    There are at least 3 articles if not more that pop up.

  67. Oilers8833 says:

    frjohnk,

    I don’t disagree that Talbot has been a big part of us being 5-1. But the offence has more than done their part as well. Edmonton has 23 goals for which leads the entire league as of today. Just sayin.

  68. blainer says:

    frjohnk: Im not in “fire Chia camp” but Im not impressed by him so far either.

    Lucic and Sekera were offered the most money by the Oilers.Im sure the McDavid effect helped plus new arena.

    Russell wanted to go to Calgary and they wanted him back but they could not find the room.His agent knew the Oilers had interest from before.

    These 3 most likely come here even if MacT was GM as we had the cap space to offer the most money, McDavid and new rink and for Russell Oilers are in Alberta ( he wanted to play close to home)Though MacT may have blown his brains out in throwing money at these guys.

    Kassian was and is still a risk.I like this move though.

    Maroon was a very good move.

    Gryba for a 4th was an OK move.

    Talbot for picks was probably his best move.

    Korpikoski for Gordon was a bad move.Chia ” had time for Korpikoski”.So much the Oilers will pay him not to play for this and next year.

    The idea of trading the 16th and the 33rd for a Dman who is ready to make an impact at the NHL level?Great idea.Not having anybody have a current scouting report that would suggest said player is nowhere near being a good NHL player? Terrible.Islanders bloggers knew more about Reinhart than Chia did.Those two picks right now could be nice currency in trade or to have in the prospect cupboard ( those picks could have been busts too, so there is that)

    Hall for Larsson.You only have 1 shot when you use your biggest tradeable bullet.Use, but use wisely.Like most here, I believe it was an overpayment. I like Larsson, he is more physical than I thought, great in his own end, but does not have the elite mobility that most number 1 and number 2 Dmen have and I think that will hamper his ceiling.

    Yak for a bag ( no pucks)Was Yak such a cancer to this team, that Chia needed to get rid of him no matter what?Or was this a mistake in asset evaluation in believing that JP was ready to make a difference and getting rid of Yak was OK?It looks like this team will have a revolving door at 2RW until JP is ready.So far it has not hampered the team too much, but the 2nd line will need a right wing better than what we have moving forward.

    Marincin for a 4th.Now people can debate on how good or bad Marincin is, but he is a NHL player.And a young one.And Babcock speaks highly of him.The gap between Larsson and Marincin is a helluva lot closer to Hall and a 4th.

    He has bolstered the blue line with money ( Russell and Sekera) and by trade ( Gryba and Larsson)These adds were needed.I like these adds.

    He has given us more size with Lucic, Maroon and Kassian and I like that

    I like most of Chia’s draft picks and I like the college signings.

    But he had overpaid in the big moves, Hall,Lucic ( I absolutely love the Lucic add but make no mistake, this contract will hurt us down the road)
    the draft picks for Reinhart ( this is bad because it seems like there was no actual scouting of this player when he was in the AHL)
    Trading a mid 6 right winger who can score when on a skilled line for a bag and now we are looking a for a mid 6 right winger who can score when on a skilled line

    If Im grading him, Id be hard pressed to give him an average grade.

    When it comes to Chia … The one and only thing I will hold him accountable for is WINNING !!

    He has made some questionable moves and some very risky moves for sure..

    This is why i really believe he will be in trouble if this team tanks again and rightfully so..

    Right now though I have no problems with him as long as this team is winning.

    While he has to accept the blame for some of the bad moves he made the fact that IMO he was not permitted to let Mact and company go has not helped him either.

  69. Little Poteet says:

    Zeabs93,

    I can vouch for the thought that becoming a father could be a positive for Talbot. Apart from the lost sleep, which would be a huge problem for an NHL goalie (but all kids are different, as is the amount a mother can handle and availiable help from family/ possible hired help), I found it much easier to focus, and be driven to success, while my kids were newborns. That focus kind of went away a bit once my kids became big enough to be fun. The drive to provide is still there, but the time to prepare mentally was lessened. So next year, after the family help is gone, kids are mobile and more exhausting, is probably when the biggest impact to Talbot will happen, in my experience anyway

  70. misfit says:

    Larsson playing a mean game does please me. Not that I feel like all defensemen need to be nasty to play against, but because I remember how much he got abused in his draft and draft +1 years in international competition.

    I also don’t recall him being less of a pushover in Jersey, but apparently his physicality is something he developed over his last couple of seasons with the Devils.

    Kind of like Smid. He was never considered a physical defenseman in his draft year or at any point while in the ANA system. Even as a rookie with the Oilers, he wasn’t overly physical, but sometime during his sophomore (I think) season it was like he had gone through hypnosis and was trained to think he was a badger whenever he heard a whistle blow.

  71. frjohnk says:

    treevojo:
    frjohnk,

    Type in “who offered lucic most money” into google.

    There are at least 3 articles if not more that pop up.

    Ok I read where monteal offered more but there was no amount. And Chia said Lucic was offered more elsewhere. Thanks

  72. frjohnk says:

    Oilers8833:
    frjohnk,

    I don’t disagree that Talbot has been a big part of us being 5-1. But the offence has more than done their part as well. Edmonton has 23 goals for which leads the entire league as of today. Just sayin.

    Yup

  73. misfit says:

    I’ve really liked Lander as a winger for quite some time now (I used to think he could develop into our very own Sammy Paulson when he first turned pro).

    He’s kind of a forgotten man, but I think he may end up being the best shot at being our home grown Pisani v2.0. He’s defensively responsible and has no problem fitting in on a 3rd/4th line while giving you plus PKing ability. But he also compliments skill very well, which IMO was where Pisani shone brightest. He did a lot of the legwork that allowed his linemates to succeed. For many years, our best line on any given night was the one Fernando was on, even if he was never given credit for its success.

    Torres – Stoll – Pisani
    Smyth – Horcoff – Pisani
    Nilsson – Cogliano – Pisani
    Moreau – Reasoner – Pisani
    Torres – Peca – Pisani (playoffs)

    All of those lines, when together, were outstanding despite the opposition they faced.

  74. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: You are making the mistake of using high scoring chances as shots.

    Not every chance becomes a shot on net. Some are blocked, some miss the net

    Last year, when looking at shots from the high danger area and high danger chances, teams would have 66% to 78% ( depended on team) of a success rate of high danger chances becoming shots on net

    I usually use sportsnet shot chart as confirmation.

    Tried posting the numbers the other night.

    Ran into some difficulty

    I checked my notes and it is 16 HSC shots.
    1st period
    5 HSC shots 0G
    4 LSC shots 0G
    2nd period
    5 hsC shots 1G
    2 LSC shots 0G
    3rd period
    6 HSC shots 2 G
    1 LSC shot 0G

    I liked this caue it was represtative of HSC shots as a priority.

  75. raventalon40 says:

    Do we have room for Michalek, send JP down? Michalek is a veteran hand and would be playing a different role than/when Hendricks or Pakarinen return, if it comes to that.

  76. theres oil in virginia says:

    blainer: IMO he was not permitted to let Mact and company go

    The nicest way that I can say this is that your opinion goes strongly against the available evidence.

  77. LMHF#1 says:

    I find it somewhat hilarious that people are both evaluating to this degree after 6 games, and obsessed with the fact that winning can’t be real. In golf the saying is – they don’t draw pictures on the scorecard.

    How about thinking in terms of what they need to do now? The holes still remain, regardless of the wins. While you’re winning is also the time to move on addressing needs as other GMs will not see you as vulnerable and certain players who are assets will look better in a trade.

  78. LMHF#1 says:

    theres oil in virginia: The nicest way that I can say this is that your opinion goes strongly against the available evidence.

    And the key word in your post is ‘available’.

    We are in a discussion where the information available is not particularly reliable.

  79. LMHF#1 says:

    raventalon40:
    Do we have room for Michalek, send JP down? Michalek is a veteran hand and would be playing a different role than/when Hendricks or Pakarinen return, if it comes to that.

    He’s fallen off pretty far. Think there’s still gas in the tank?

  80. prairieschooner says:

    We are 5 and 1 no need to panic guys!

  81. stush18 says:

    theres oil in virginia: The nicest way that I can say this is that your opinion goes strongly against the available evidence.

    I honestly don’t mind macT as a amateur procurement guy.

    He was the one who saw klefbom and liked him after one viewing. Whether that’s luck or not, it worked.

    He drafted slepy, yak2, khaira, lagesson, platzer and traded for brossoit.

    I think if he was only helping bob green, he would be a valuable member.

  82. npanciroli says:

    treevojo,

    I remember there being rumours more money elsewhere.

  83. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: I usually use sportsnet shot chart as confirmation.

    Sportnet shot chart shows 16 high danger shots, but not all hit the net.

    Corsica hockey is showing
    22 shots with goalie in net ( Oilers had 1 other shot, McDavid empty netter)

    2 other goals

    9 shots on net from high danger location
    5 shots on net from medium danger location
    8 shots on net from the perimeter

    Natural Stat Trick is showing

    51 corsi attempts
    16 corsi attempts from the high danger area.
    23 shots on net

    Oilers were not 100% in all corsi attempts from the high danger area in that game. 9 or 10 if you use the empty netter, would be about what league average was last year for corsi attempts from the high danger location actually hitting the net.

    I have not yet done it this year but have in past years. But if you go to each goalie the Oilers face in Corsica, you can find out how many Oiler shot attempts from the various locations actually hit the net.

  84. Confused says:

    LMHF#1,

    lets wait for Josh Leivo

  85. rickithebear says:

    VS:Carolina 17 HSC shots
    1st
    5 HSC shots for 1G
    6 HSC SH AG 0G
    6 LSC shots for 1G
    7 LSC SH AG 0G
    2nd
    7 hSC shots 1G
    4 HSC SH AG 0G
    2 LSC shots 0G
    3 LSC SH AG 0G
    3rd
    4 HSC shots 0G
    10 HSC SH AG 2G
    4 LSC shots 0G
    3 LSC SH AG 0G

    VS Buffalo
    1st
    7 HSC sh for 2G
    7 HSC SH AG 1G
    3 LSC sh 0G
    3 LSC SH AG 1G
    2nd
    7 HSC SH 0G
    2 HSC SH AG 1G
    5 LSC SH 0G
    4 LSC SH AG 1G
    3rd
    9 HSC SH For 0G
    6 HSC SH AG 2G
    2 LSC SH FOR 0G
    2 LSC SH AG 0G

    @ CGY
    1st
    10 HSC SH 1G
    12 HSC SH AG 1G
    2 LSC SH 0G
    10 LSC SH AG 1G

    2nd
    7 HSC SH
    1 HSC SH 0G
    3 LSC SH
    2 HSC SH 0G

    3rd
    5 HSC SH For 3G
    0 HSC SH AG 0G
    2 LSC SH 0G
    8 LSC SH AG 1G

  86. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: Sportnet shot chart shows 16 high danger shots, but not all hit the net.

    Corsica hockey is showing
    22 shots with goalie in net ( Oilers had 1 other shot, McDavid empty netter)

    2 other goals

    9 shots on net from high danger location
    5 shots on net from medium danger location
    8 shots on net from the perimeter

    Natural Stat Trick is showing

    51 corsi attempts
    16 corsi attempts from the high danger area.
    23 shots on net

    Oilers were not 100% in all corsi attempts from the high danger area in that game.9 or 10 if you use the empty netter, would be about what league average was last year for corsi attempts from the high danger location actually hitting the net.

    I have not yet done it this year but have in past years.But if you go to each goalie the Oilers face in Corsica, you can find out how many Oiler shot attempts from the various locations actually hit the net.

    Are you using 8.5% shotting %
    cause I do not care any of the other Dbases Med shots or
    there Line in the sand.

    8.5% shots.
    .915 save%

    the dashed lines are misses and ignored.

    you are notmaking the mistake of using a difrent definintion than LSC shots below league average shooting %
    and
    High scoring chance shots
    Shots above league average shooting %

    Cause what other definition of shot makes sense?

    Below average
    ————————
    Above avaergae

    Edit:
    I see you are using corica who has Low /Med/ High.

    Sorry my original theory was Above and Below average.

    Corsisica wants to bastardize the common sense above and below league average.

    it just groups a portion of above and below together which is of no value to finding out about taking above average shots.

    A below average Med is not the same as an Above average medium.

    I directly advised him of this flaw on HF boards.

    He was rather non responsive.

    who does that!

    An above and below average shot defined as the same!

  87. Oilers8833 says:

    frjohnk</strong

    Looch actually got 6 years at 6 million.

  88. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear:
    VS:Carolina 17 HSC shots
    1st
    5 HSC shots for 1G
    6 HSC SH AG 0G
    6 LSC shots for 1G
    7 LSC SH AG 0G
    2nd
    7 hSC shots 1G
    4 HSC SH AG 0G
    2 LSC shots 0G
    3 LSC SH AG 0G
    3rd
    4 HSC shots 0G
    10 HSC SH AG 2G
    4 LSC shots 0G
    3 LSC SH AG 0G

    VS Buffalo
    1st
    7 HSC sh for 2G
    7 HSC SH AG 1G
    3 LSC sh 0G
    3 LSC SH AG 1G
    2nd
    7 HSC SH 0G
    2 HSC SH AG 1G
    5 LSC SH 0G
    4 LSC SH AG 1G
    3rd
    9 HSC SH For 0G
    6 HSC SH AG 2G
    2 LSC SH FOR 0G
    2 LSC SH AG 0G

    @ CGY
    1st
    10 HSC SH 1G
    12 HSC SH AG 1G
    2 LSC SH 0G
    10 LSC SH AG 1G

    2nd
    7 HSC SH
    1 HSC SH 0G
    3 LSC SH
    2 HSC SH 0G

    3rd
    5 HSC SH For 3G
    0 HSC SH AG 0G
    2 LSC SH 0G
    8 LSC SH AG 1G

    those numbers are closer to shot attempts than actual shots on net when looking at corscia and natural stat trick.

    EDIT: You must also be using shots from the medium danger location as well.

    Now it makes sense.

  89. frjohnk says:

    Oilers8833:
    frjohnk</strong


    Looch actually got 6 years at 6 million.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers

  90. who says:

    frjohnk: Im not in “fire Chia camp” but Im not impressed by him so far either.

    Lucic and Sekera were offered the most money by the Oilers.Im sure the McDavid effect helped plus new arena.

    Russell wanted to go to Calgary and they wanted him back but they could not find the room.His agent knew the Oilers had interest from before.

    These 3 most likely come here even if MacT was GM as we had the cap space to offer the most money, McDavid and new rink and for Russell Oilers are in Alberta ( he wanted to play close to home)Though MacT may have blown his brains out in throwing money at these guys.

    Kassian was and is still a risk.I like this move though.

    Maroon was a very good move.

    Gryba for a 4th was an OK move.

    Talbot for picks was probably his best move.

    Korpikoski for Gordon was a bad move.Chia ” had time for Korpikoski”.So much the Oilers will pay him not to play for this and next year.

    The idea of trading the 16th and the 33rd for a Dman who is ready to make an impact at the NHL level?Great idea.Not having anybody have a current scouting report that would suggest said player is nowhere near being a good NHL player? Terrible.Islanders bloggers knew more about Reinhart than Chia did.Those two picks right now could be nice currency in trade or to have in the prospect cupboard ( those picks could have been busts too, so there is that)

    Hall for Larsson.You only have 1 shot when you use your biggest tradeable bullet.Use, but use wisely.Like most here, I believe it was an overpayment. I like Larsson, he is more physical than I thought, great in his own end, but does not have the elite mobility that most number 1 and number 2 Dmen have and I think that will hamper his ceiling.

    Yak for a bag ( no pucks)Was Yak such a cancer to this team, that Chia needed to get rid of him no matter what?Or was this a mistake in asset evaluation in believing that JP was ready to make a difference and getting rid of Yak was OK?It looks like this team will have a revolving door at 2RW until JP is ready.So far it has not hampered the team too much, but the 2nd line will need a right wing better than what we have moving forward.

    Marincin for a 4th.Now people can debate on how good or bad Marincin is, but he is a NHL player.And a young one.And Babcock speaks highly of him.The gap between Larsson and Marincin is a helluva lot closer to Hall and a 4th.

    He has bolstered the blue line with money ( Russell and Sekera) and by trade ( Gryba and Larsson)These adds were needed.I like these adds.

    He has given us more size with Lucic, Maroon and Kassian and I like that

    I like most of Chia’s draft picks and I like the college signings.

    But he had overpaid in the big moves, Hall,Lucic ( I absolutely love the Lucic add but make no mistake, this contract will hurt us down the road)
    the draft picks for Reinhart ( this is bad because it seems like there was no actual scouting of this player when he was in the AHL)
    Trading a mid 6 right winger who can score when on a skilled line for a bag and now we are looking a for a mid 6 right winger who can score when on a skilled line

    If Im grading him, Id be hard pressed to give him an average grade.

    I agree with all of your Chia negative trades except the hall trade. I think there is a tendency by some posters here to over value hall. I was surprised at the time of the trade that jersey didn’t throw in a prospect or draft pick but that was based on the rumors flying around just before it happened. In hindsight when you consider the age of each player, the position they play and the value of each players contract I think we got fair value.
    I was also a supporter of the Reinhart trade until this fall. Based on his play at the end of last season I thought we had an nhl ready dman who was going to develop into a top 4 option. Very disappointed in his play this fall and I feel he has already been passed by some others in the organization.

  91. frjohnk says:

    So far this year. This is using Corsica. With goalies in the net.
    Oilers

    Shots for 170
    Shots against 199

    From the perimeter
    Shots for 58
    Shots against 68

    From the medium danger area
    Shots for 48
    Shots against 81

    From the high danger area
    Shots for 64
    Shots against 50

  92. frjohnk says:

    who: I agree with all of your Chia negative trades except the hall trade. I think there is a tendency by some posters here to over value hall. I was surprised at the time of the trade that jersey didn’t throw in a prospect or draft pick but that was based on the rumors flying around just before it happened. In hindsight when you consider the age of each player, the position they play and the value of each players contract I think we got fair value.
    I was also a supporter of the Reinhart trade until this fall. Based on his play at the end of last season I thought we had an nhl ready dman who was going to develop into a top 4 option. Very disappointed in his play this fall and I feel he has already been passed by some others in the organization.

    I have Taylor Hall as a top 10 left wing in the league, (closer to 10 than 3 ( after Ovie and Benn).

    As I mentioned with Larsson, I really like him. First game against Flames he cranked Gaudreau and Ferland, I became a fan. He is very good in his own zone, he is the best Oiler Dman who seperates man from puck, passes the puck very well.

    His mobility is not elite and that has got him in trouble a few times ( we have not paid for that) when defending. I also think this will hamper his ceiling as I dont think we will see much offense from him. At the moment he is a very good number 3 Dman.

    Just my opinion, but I believe we traded a top line winger who some say is a “river pusher” for a 1st/2nd pairing Dman.

    EDIT: Hall was probably my 7th, 8th favorite Oiler, but man I would have loved to see him with a D core that we have now.

  93. Ducey says:

    Confused:
    LMHF#1,

    lets wait for Josh Leivo

    We are last in the waiver line. By the time the tuxedo teams get to shop at Value Village, all the good stuff is picked over.

  94. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ducey: We are last in the waiver line

    I think we’re still 2nd Ducey-the date the waiver priority adjusts is Nov 1, until then the league still sorts by last years standings

  95. Confused says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    And since Leivo is with Toronto — we are first!

  96. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    who,

    I felt the exact same way about GR in training camp. End of last season I saw a guy who was figuring out his gap control, stepping into lanes and danger areas more forcefully and was playing with a bit of a mean streak. Come training camp it almost appeared as if he wasn’t in shape or perhaps hadn’t thrown on a pair of skates in a few months. Encouraging signs the last two weeks from the land of the Condors from what I read but as they say “its tough to make a second impression” and after that showing in TC I can’t help but wonder if the coaching staff may have turned sour on the player.

    I’m also loving the discussion between FRJohn and Ricki today, excellent stuff gentleman.

    I think the TMac quote in LT’s post today is incredibly important for all of us as we witness something resembling success occurring on the ice over the last couple of weeks. Like FRJohn (and other posters here) I am worried that the cross balance is a bit tilted at the moment but at the same time am largely in line with Pouzer and Ricki who highlight the gap around HDSC for/against, as the coach would say we are a team learning to do things.

    Creating chances to score in my mind isn’t something that can be taught. Yes you can be taught where to play in order to increase the likelihood of generating a scoring chance but in a game that has become more and more mechanical creating chances still remains a lonely beacon of creativity.

    Takes yesterdays game for example and specifically the Kassian goal. Pouliot could have used his body to shield the puck while working further into the middle and then taking a shot (probably would have been the safe play) but instead chose that wonderful little drop pass to Kassian. Creativity vs safety.

    Why is this important? I think creativity is a harbinger of comfort and confidence/ For those who have played the game when is it easier to create chances: When you’re on a cold streak or when you’re riding high? Intuitively people will say “hot streak” and maybe the math bears this out I’m not sure (see this damn math heavy blog has me doubting everything!), but as a player I always “felt” it was easier to create chances when you’re hot. You’re skates are a bit lighter, your stick a bit more responsive and your eyes just a bit wider. I know this sounds kinda hokey but as long as the scoring chance metrics favour the Oilers I’m not too worried about the overall possession numbers unless they start to slide precipitously.

    I honestly believe we are starting to see the team finally feel comfortable, there is an edge around town that we haven’t seen in a long long time. I don’t want folks to think I’m getting too far ahead of myself because like everyone here I can easily admit that its very early and there is still miles to go but I also don’t want to completely discount the upward trending arrows right now.

    Here’s hoping the guys can put in a few days of good hard practice and that Dad Talbot decides to go on a run for the ages with his new biggest fans watching (seriously the tweet below is the greatest)!

    https://twitter.com/kellytrain/status/790330869848211456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

  97. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk,
    – You would be in the minority in hockey circles if you didn’t think he’s at least passing grade

    – That doesn’t make you wrong, but its not what I get from hockey people

    – Anwyay, he certainly didn’t win all the trades (no one does), but another attribute that I think gets underestimated is his ability to move on from mistakes: The OBC would be feeding Griff top-4 minutes, would not have bought out Korp. Yak would be in press-box now to teach him a lesson

    – Seeing mistakes and moving on is a very significant attribute for a GM

    – Chia has done much more good than bad: he is in a different class than Lowe, MacT, Tambellini (none who are ever going to be hired as GM in NHL again)

    – His biggest whiff was Griff: but he relied on the organization to tell him Griff was NHL ready. He wasn’t, so Chia added Larsson, Russel and Gryba, and moved on, by addressing what he had to.

    – Focus on the bad move, if you choose, but the D today is Chia’s and much better.

    – And Nurse played the least amount of minutes amongst D last night on merit: that’s a huge develpment, shows where the team now is.

    – Your under-estimating the relative importance in hockey today on the value of a top 22 mins/game passing RHD and how they effect outcome. If they threw back a 3rd round pick: would that be fair?

    – NJ is not playing very well: bet they miss Larsson much more than we miss Hall. 8 goals for their team y-t-d: 3 from Hall!

  98. Centre of attention says:

    Hearing lots of noise about a possible Dougie Hamilton trade.

    No idea if the Oilers are in on it… I hope to gord they are though.

  99. Pouzar says:

    Centre of attention,

    Chris Nichols (@NicholsOnHockey) | Twitter

    https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey

    1 hour ago – View on Twitter

    LeBrun: “But I know that at least one team, for sure, phoned about his availability and it didn’t go anywhere.” 2/2 twitter.com/NicholsOnHock…

    1 hour ago – View on Twitter

    LeBrun: “You heard Dougie Hamilton’s name out there this year. I don’t think it was the #Flames shopping him.” 1/2 1040

  100. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: I have Taylor Hall as a top 10 left wing in the league, (closer to 10 than 3 ( after Ovie and Benn).

    As I mentioned with Larsson, I really like him.First game against Flames he cranked Gaudreau and Ferland, I became a fan.He is very good in his own zone, he is the best Oiler Dman who seperates man from puck,passes the puck very well.

    His mobility is not elite and that has got him in trouble a few times ( we have not paid for that) when defending.I also think this will hamper his ceiling as I dont think we will see much offense from him.At the moment he is a very good number 3 Dman.

    Just my opinion, but I believe we traded a top line winger who some say is a “river pusher” for a 1st/2nd pairing Dman.

    EDIT: Hall was probably my 7th, 8th favorite Oiler, but man I would have loved to see him with a D core that we have now.

    Larsson is already a top pairing dmen and he is just turned 24 and is still improving. Calling him a 1/2 pairing Dman is not really fair to him. And most importantly he is locked in as a # 4 defenseman price for 5 seasons

  101. theres oil in virginia says:

    LMHF#1: And the key word in your post is ‘available’.

    We are in a discussion where the information available is not particularly reliable.

    So, shall we ignore the available evidence and base our opinions solely on our emotions?

  102. Truth says:

    Some shaky defensive moments yesterday. Good think Talbot showed up ready to play. Deserved the 1st star of the week from the NHL without a doubt.

    Has there been any recent news regarding Cagguila returning from injury?

    I still think Pujlujarvi should go down to the AHL for 40 games. He can play in the NHL, I just believe he would be better served to play twice as many minutes each night. It would be perfect if Cagguila returned just in time to replace Pu. in the lineup.

  103. Bruce Wayne says:

    By what criteria is Larsson a top pairing D? People keep calling him that, but is there anything behind this other than “he’s our guy?”

    The beginning of the answer to this question is the supposition that top pairing does not equal one of the top 60 D in the league.

    I’d break it up like this:

    Top pairing = top 30.
    Top four = top 90 in the league
    Bottom pairing = next 90, etc.

    So instead of saying top pairing for Larsson, say what decile you think he’s in, and then provide an argument of support.

    Or provide a comparable player. Is Larsson as good as Anton Stralman? Why?

    In the meantime the rest of us will go on describing Larsson as not a top pairing D.

  104. B S says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    It’s called confidence. The opposite, something I’ve struggled with on a professional level lately, does the opposite, your feet are heavy, your brain running every which way (Yak’s “bees” by the way). And confidence is hugely important to pro athletes (or any athlete for that matter). I think the oilers have suffered for a lack of it for the last couple of seasons, especially in Novembers. Teams with confidence are going to take shots from unexpected areas, and try plays that are high risk, and score on those plays. Calgary and Colorado are extreme examples, but Oilers teams in past seasons have come out of the gates hot, won, but had bad possession.

    The concern about the “fancies” is that players get snakebit, they struggle at times during the season, look at McDavid the last 4 games (only 3 points), but good teams have good possession stats throughout the season. That’s because they have systems in place and enough skill to still win when players aren’t feeling it. Confidence helps win games, but it’s unpredictable, especially among young players, so for now we rely on possession proxies and shot stats like corsi and HDSC.

  105. leadfarmer says:

    FYI there a 65 defensemen that have a higher cap hit then Klefbom and Larsson and this will continue to rise during the duration of their current contracts. Our top pairing is not paid like a top pairing but sure looks like a top pairing

  106. classict says:

    leadfarmer,

    There are only two teams in the league where hes the 4th highest paid dman, that I can think of, and that’s the Jets and Habs.

    He’s generally paid like a 2/3. That being said, yes he’s cheap if you view him as a #1.

  107. "Steve Smith" says:

    classict,

    On the Flames, he’d be 5th highest paid. Their best defenceman is 4th highest.

  108. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Splitting hairs, neither of Talbot’s wins vs the Flames met Vollman’s definition of a quality start. .902 ,.914 with 3+ GA in each. While I might quibble with Rob’s definitions, accepting them at face value Talbot’s QS% is 3/6=.500.

    Question Bruce, it’s been awhile since I’ve read Vollman’s Quality Starts data, but how is this affected by early season games where teams don’t yet have an established level of play? Is it done retroactively until a certain point is reached which provides the data necessary to become more predictive or is it entirely retroactive so that the quality of the start is dependent upon the performance of the opposition at that time?

    I need to buy Statshot.

  109. RexLibris says:

    "Steve Smith":
    classict,

    On the Flames, he’d be 5th highest paid.Their best defenceman is 4th highest.

    This Flames team is making me feel things I’ve not felt since the 80s.

    And that one day in 1998 when they called out the name “Rico Fata”.

  110. classict says:

    "Steve Smith",

    Hmm I missed Detroit too actually. There are some crazy overpaid Dmen out there…

  111. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar:
    Centre of attention,

    Chris Nichols (@NicholsOnHockey) | Twitter

    https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey

    1 hour ago – View on Twitter

    LeBrun: “But I know that at least one team, for sure, phoned about his availability and it didn’t go anywhere.” 2/2 twitter.com/NicholsOnHock…

    1 hour ago – View on Twitter

    LeBrun: “You heard Dougie Hamilton’s name out there this year. I don’t think it was the #Flames shopping him.” 1/2 1040

    Here’s the thing I’ve posted on twitter:

    What problem do the Flames hope to address by getting rid of Hamilton?

    They need to add a better defenseman than they have in Engelland, Wideman or Jokipakka to pair WITH Hamilton, not downgrade to pair with the other three.

    They have ~$8,000 in cap space barring any LTIR of Smid and are facing a bonus penalty on Bennett’s $2.3M bonuses into next season.

    If management there is even entertaining the possibility that a Hamilton trade is a possible solution then it suggests that they have failed to properly identify the problem – namely that they hired the wrong coach and have equipped him with an addled defensive group of square pegs and round holes.

  112. RexLibris says:

    classict:
    “Steve Smith”,

    Hmm I missed Detroit too actually. There are some crazy overpaid Dmen out there…

    I think it was Friedman the other day who said that the Ekblad contract threw everyone off because it raised the bar beyond what the market could handle.

    That would rest on the shoulders of Tallon and/or his immediate replacement in Florida.

    Given the original Brian Campbell contract Tallon handed out, I’m inclined to believe it is the “and”.

  113. frjohnk says:

    kinger_OIL: – You would be in the minority in hockey circles if you didn’t think he’s at least passing grade

    What I said is hard pressed to give him an average grade.

    Id pass him.

  114. Doug McLachlan says:

    Must say that I’m feeling pretty pumped about the Oilers of late even though I know I am seeing a mirage.

    4-1 in our first five games (1-0 vs a playoff team, St.L)
    1-0 so far in the next five game segment where, again, we only face one playoff team in Washington.

    The schedule makers have been kind as an 8-2 start is entirely reasonable. If we can top the Capitals on Wednesday, that puts the team in a nice spot with Vancouver, Ottawa and Toronto all on deck.

    Question for the stat savy, while I think that the HD chances are intuitively more significant than straight Corsi – I take it that the data does not seem to show the same historical correlation to team success? Any sense whether this is just a lack of accurate data on HD chances or is this information already being captured in sh%, sv% and PDO generally?

  115. leadfarmer says:

    classict:
    leadfarmer,

    There are only two teams in the league where hes the 4th highest paid dman, that I can think of, and that’s the Jets and Habs.

    He’s generally paid like a 2/3. That being said, yes he’s cheap if you view him as a #1.

    My point was for the duration of his contract, not currently. Free agent #3s like Petry and Sekera are wanting 5.5 mil, Demers a #4 signed for 4.5 million. There will be more of those contracts given in the next 5 years that will push Klefbom and Larsson down from mid 60s to almost 3 digits in the next few years

  116. Admiral Ackbar says:

    I’m loving this season so far! While the team has swag, I don’t. I’m just not used to this winning.

    For our amateur statisticians predicting doom and gloom because of poor ‘advanced’ analytics, please cool it. If we’re looking at predictors of success, Corsi has been ruled out as reliable evidence. Dangerous Fenwick and HDSC seem better but this itself needs some statistical analysis (get your P values below 0.1). I just can’t rely on this much like one shouldn’t take a drug until it’s been through clinical trials.

    Goilers. Keep up the momentum. Big test this Wednesday.

  117. Bruce Wayne says:

    leadfarmer: My point was for the duration of his contract, not currently.Free agent #3s like Petry and Sekera are wanting 5.5 mil, Demers a #4 signed for 4.5 million.There will be more of those contracts given in the next 5 years that will push Klefbom and Larsson down from mid 60s to almost 3 digits in the next few years

    By the evidence Larsson has more in common with Jason Demers than he does with a #1 D. No one would be complaining about the Hall trade (in the same way) if they had traded him for Lindholm.

  118. geowal says:

    knighttown,

    Awesome Post

  119. Marc says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Must say that I’m feeling pretty pumped about the Oilers of late even though I know I am seeing a mirage.

    4-1 in our first five games (1-0 vs a playoff team, St.L)
    1-0 so far in the next five game segment where, again, we only face one playoff team in Washington.

    The schedule makers have been kind as an 8-2 start is entirely reasonable.If we can top the Capitals on Wednesday, that puts the team in a nice spot with Vancouver, Ottawa and Toronto all on deck.

    The Oilers’ schedule this season is one of the weirder ones that I can recall. They start with 6 of 9 at home, but in November they have 10 road games and only 5 at home. December and January have a normal distribution of home and road games, but February has 9 road games and only 3 at home. They finish the season with 13 of their last 18 games at home.

    You’d be hard pressed to find a better schedule down the stretch than that, but next month and February will be tough.

  120. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk: What I said is hard pressed to give him an average grade.

    Id pass him.

    – OK, sorry to misrepresent: I misread, I thought you failed him. Anyway its incomplete. If Chia get 90 points this year (my prediction), that more than a pass IMO.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: What I said is hard pressed to give him an average grade.

    Id pass him.

    He’s lucky he got McDavid otherwise we’d be talking Ds and Fs. GMs lose jobs over trades likeReinhart

  122. GMB3 says:

    I wonder what it is McDavid does differently that makes him so damn fast. I would like to see a sports science on his skating ability.

  123. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    knighttown,

    This is an excellent point (too long to quote–go and read it) that bears repeating.Before it was taken down I was perusing general fanager and it is very clear that the teams that have been dominating the west are both getting old and are hampered by killer contracts.The field is wide, wide, open.

    The team in the West that manages to draft well, make value trades, and avoid killer contracts is positioned to fill this vacuum.The Oilers got a massive headstart with McDavid, but have hurt themselves unnecessarily with the other two.

    Bang on! Carter/Kopitar is getting a bit older, though Kopitar looks like his big frame will be dominant well into his 30s. He may lose his ‘eliteness’ soon.

    Getzlaf & Kesler are good but Kesler seems to have slowed a bit in the past few years. For Getzlaf, see Kopitar.

    SJ should be strong moving forward: Pavelski in his prime and Couture pretty much there too.

    Steen & Stastny arne’t Stanley Cup 1-2Cs.

    Koivu is getting older: poor man’s Kopitar.

    Chi will be interesting: Toews should be strong for a long time. Anisimov is carried by Kane/Panarin. Keith should be strong for a few more years but Seabrook is aging. Those two contracts for Toews/Kane are massive anchors to that organization. They’re very lucky that they’ve drafted well.

    Seguin is awesome and should be for a while but Spezza has been on the decline for a while now: poor man’s Lecavalier.

    Canucks and Flames aren’t worth discussing. Arizona may emerge but they don’t have the elite #1C.

  124. Yeti says:

    leadfarmer: He’s lucky he got McDavid otherwise we’d be talking Ds and Fs.GMs lose jobs over trades likeReinhart

    Luck has absolutely nothing to do with it. Chiarelli willed the Oilers into winning the lottery through sheer force of mind. The man is a genius!

  125. frjohnk says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    By what criteria is Larsson a top pairing D?People keep calling him that, but is there anything behind this other than “he’s our guy?”

    The beginning of the answer to this question is the supposition that top pairing does not equal one of the top 60 D in the league.

    I’d break it up like this:

    Top pairing = top 30.
    Top four = top 90 in the league
    Bottom pairing = next 90, etc.

    So instead of saying top pairing for Larsson, say what decile you think he’s in, and then provide an argument of support.

    Or provide a comparable player.Is Larsson as good as Anton Stralman?Why?

    In the meantime the rest of us will go on describing Larsson as not a top pairing D.

    I used to think that
    top 30 Dmen = number 1
    30 to 60 = number 2
    and so on.

    But from what many NHL coaches and guys on here say

    There are only about 15 true number 1 Dmen.
    Then add 30 for every ranking so
    number 1 top 15
    number 2 between 16 and 45
    number 3 between 46 and 75 and so on

    I think Larsson is a good number 3 D man. Somewhere around 45th best.

    Looking at Larsson’s numbers

    Offensively last year Larsson was 139th out of all Dmen ( who played 500 mins) with a points/60 of 0.53.
    His individual shots per 60 put him 187th out all Dmen with 2.39 shots per 60.
    He was 89th with 13 even strength points.

    But in 14-15, he was 24th out of all Dmen with a points/60 of 1.08
    His individual shots per 60 put him 56th out all Dmen with 4.66 shots per 60.
    He was 40th with 19 even strength points

    He has scored 4 even strength goals in the last two years, so there probably is not much offense there from him, but Jersey’s system probably hampered him last year.

    If we look at his shot suppression numbers from last year we see

    CA/60
    48.7
    SA/60
    25.9
    SCA/60
    16.4
    HDCA/60
    8.0

    Those numbers would suggest elite top pairing but I have argued that was more because of Jersey and their system. It should also be noted that the ice was actually tilted towards Jerseys end when he was on the ice. Jersey was outshot and outchanced when Larsson was on the ice.

    Since becoming an Oiler, Ive expected to see his on ice metrics against numbers increase and that has happened. I also expected to see more offense, that has not happened. But 6 games.

    This year, those on ice metric numbers against have increased except HDCA/60 and actually his numbers dont vary much from Russell
    ____________CA/60___SA/60____SCA/60____HDCA/60
    Kris Russell___62.7____29.9______16.7_______8.6
    Adam Larsson_57.6____28.8______21.3_______7.5

    Right now, I dont think there is much gap in how our top 4 Dmen have performed. But its very early. One thing to be noted is that Sekera and Russell have 1 of them playing the offhand and Russell pretty much missed training camp.

    Offensively Id ranked Larsson a number 4/5 Dman.
    Defensively Id ranked Larsson a number 1/2 Dman.

    Thats how I get to him being a number 3.

    As Ive said, I like everything about Larssons game but his skating is not elite ( fast forwards give him some trouble) and that will affect his ceiling.

  126. Side says:

    leadfarmer: He’s lucky he got McDavid otherwise we’d be talking Ds and Fs.GMs lose jobs over trades likeReinhart

    Not sure that’s a fair assessment. Chia made the Reinhart trade because he already had McDavid. He spoke many times about finding young players who would grow with McDavid (and would be cheaper, I imagine, for when McDavid’s big pay day came). Trade may not have even happened if we didn’t have McDavid.

  127. Spengler says:

    classict

    Arizona (technically), Colorado, Columbus…

    Wow there are some overpaid player out there.

  128. digger50 says:

    blainer: I agree. Gryba did not help nurse look even better yesterday IMO..Gryba was all over the D zone .. often on the wrong side and chasing the play.. reminded me of the Jultzing..

    He does bring that physical element that we need against the big teams like the jets .. but I would really like to see what Benning can do against the caps.

    Really looking forward to Davey’s return as well. Hard to believe this team has depth all of a sudden.

    Goaltending and scoring leads to winning teams.. We have both…

    I love Gryba on the roster. People may puck on him at times but he adds valua and he adds…wait for it…balance. We need a variety of D bringing different skills. Here’s hoping he has a good year.

  129. leadfarmer says:

    Side,

    It’s not like the previous cluster wouldn’t need an upgrade on D. The brain trust has had an eye on him for ever. It was only a matter of time he was going to come back here

  130. commonfan14 says:

    Side: leadfarmer: He’s lucky he got McDavid otherwise we’d be talking Ds and Fs.GMs lose jobs over trades likeReinhart
    Not sure that’s a fair assessment. Chia made the Reinhart trade because he already had McDavid.

    Yeah, I can’t imagine he makes that trade after drafting Hanifin.

  131. flyfish1168 says:

    GMB3:
    I wonder what it is McDavid does differently that makes him so damn fast. I would like to see a sports science on his skating ability.

    He trained his fast twitch muscles group for starters.

  132. CrazyCoach says:

    Hey LT,

    Good to see such a nice start to the season. I know the analytics say there will be a downturn soon, but I’m going to enjoy this ride.

    Was awesome to see the St Louis win, especially seeing it was the night after the Stones cancelling their gig in Vegas, and which I had travelled great distances to go see.

    I swore right from day one that I would not take McDavid’s time in Edmonton for granted like I did with Gretzky. I feel a lot of regret now that I didn’t make the journey over the Rockies more to see him, but that isn’t happening with McDavid.

    This has been a fun ride so far.

  133. frjohnk says:

    CrazyCoach: I swore right from day one that I would not take McDavid’s time in Edmonton for granted like I did with Gretzky

    This should be a sticky to every post LT writes.

    Savoir the moment McDavid is an Oiler, cause it wont last forever.

    As an 8 yearold, I cried when Gretzky got traded.

    Hopefully Im about 60 ( you will have to do the math 🙂 when McDavid retires as an Oiler. I’ll still cry when the day he no longer is an Oiler hockey player happens.

  134. who says:

    frjohnk: I have Taylor Hall as a top 10 left wing in the league, (closer to 10 than 3 ( after Ovie and Benn).

    As I mentioned with Larsson, I really like him.First game against Flames he cranked Gaudreau and Ferland, I became a fan.He is very good in his own zone, he is the best Oiler Dman who seperates man from puck,passes the puck very well.

    His mobility is not elite and that has got him in trouble a few times ( we have not paid for that) when defending.I also think this will hamper his ceiling as I dont think we will see much offense from him.At the moment he is a very good number 3 Dman.

    Just my opinion, but I believe we traded a top line winger who some say is a “river pusher” for a 1st/2nd pairing Dman.

    EDIT: Hall was probably my 7th, 8th favorite Oiler, but man I would have loved to see him with a D core that we have now.

    Can’t really argue any of your points. Suspect we see the players much the same way. I really like halls game and think he has a tremendous skill set but I don’t think he thinks the game at an elite level. I think wingers like gaudreau and maybe even ehlers create more offense.
    As for Larsson not being a top pairing guy all I will say is it depends on your criteria. I am kind of like Ricky in that I don’t put a lot of value on points from defenseman. I want them to defend and make a good first pass out of the zone. Larsson does this. I think guys like Karlson, burns, buff, Hamilton are overated because they cheat for offense too much and give up far too many chances against as a result. Don’t really blame them because teams sure do pay for offense.
    You are correct in saying his skating is not elite but neither was prongers.

  135. russ99 says:

    I don’t see the Hall trade as an overpay, it was a pay, Larsson was the best player out there we could have gotten without sacrificing part of the McDavid core. It hurt like hell, but it had to be done.

    Real GMs and what they’d take and give up are very different from armchair GMs.

    Would you prefer we kept Hall and the defense be broken and have us in the bottom five for another year?

    I wouldn’t, I like this progress.

  136. Bruce Wayne says:

    russ99:
    I don’t see the Hall trade as an overpay, it was a pay, Larsson was the best player out there we could have gotten without sacrificing part of the McDavid core. It hurt like hell, but it had to be done.

    Real GMs and what they’d take and give up are very different from armchair GMs.

    Would you prefer we kept Hall and the defense be broken and have us in the bottom five for another year?

    I wouldn’t, I like this progress.

    This assumes a great deal of facts not in evidence. Is Larsson better than?:

    Elias Lindholm
    Jacob Trouba
    Tyson Barrie
    Jason Demers
    Travis Hamonic

    I don’t think he’s clearly better than any of them and he is clearly worse than some of them. All those guys are, or were, available.

    There was always more than one way to “fix” the D, and not all of them required trading Hall. From all reports Chiarelli didn’t have to trade Hall at all, but chose to trade him instead of Draisatl, Nurse, or Puljujarvi. The real justification for the deal will be if Nurse turns into a star defenseman because I remain convinced Chiarelli could have “fixed” the D by trading Nurse and futures and ket Hall.

    A team with Hall, a RHD acquired in a trade for Nurse, and Demers is better in the short and long term than the team we have.

  137. who says:

    Bruce Wayne: This assumes a great deal of facts not in evidence.Is Larsson better than?:

    Elias Lindholm
    Jacob Trouba
    Tyson Barrie
    Jason Demers
    Travis Hamonic

    I don’t think he’s clearly better than any of them and he is clearly worse than some of them.All those guys are, or were, available.

    There was always more than one way to “fix” the D, and not all of them required trading Hall. From all reports Chiarelli didn’t have to trade Hall at all, but chose to trade him instead of Draisatl, Nurse, or Puljujarvi.The real justification for the deal will be if Nurse turns into a star defenseman because I remain convinced Chiarelli could have “fixed” the D by trading Nurse and futures and ket Hall.

    A team with Hall, a RHD acquired in a trade for Nurse, and Demers is better in the short and long term than the team we have.

    Think he defends better than all these players. Doesn’t bring the offense that barrie, lindhom or maybe trouba does. Would say he is better than demers ,barrie, and trouba to date but I do love troubas upside.

  138. digger50 says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    All true, yet Funny how many times you have to say this!

  139. prairieschooner says:

    It is easy to cherry pick a few aspects of a trade to argue a position but I think the GM has more considerations than we do.
    What about cap space that allows a GM to bank some salary for future deals.
    Lucic gives size and skill on Connors line
    PC has re worked a lot of this team
    The Oilers are no longer as soft as butter but are a difficult team to play against
    Remember when we had Cogs, Nilsson, Gags, Linus we have come a long way baby!

  140. CrazyCoach says:

    frjohnk: This should be a sticky to every post LT writes.

    As an 8 yearold, I cried when Gretzky got traded.

    I think I would have to, but I was a 19 year old university summer student working in a sawmill. Had to keep up the facade.

  141. stevezie says:

    frjohnk: Im not in “fire Chia camp” but Im not impressed by him so far either.

    Lucic and Sekera were offered the most money by the Oilers.Im sure the McDavid effect helped plus new arena.

    Russell wanted to go to Calgary and they wanted him back but they could not find the room.His agent knew the Oilers had interest from before.

    These 3 most likely come here even if MacT was GM as we had the cap space to offer the most money, McDavid and new rink and for Russell Oilers are in Alberta ( he wanted to play close to home)Though MacT may have blown his brains out in throwing money at these guys.

    Kassian was and is still a risk.I like this move though.

    Maroon was a very good move.

    Gryba for a 4th was an OK move.

    Talbot for picks was probably his best move.

    Korpikoski for Gordon was a bad move.Chia ” had time for Korpikoski”.So much the Oilers will pay him not to play for this and next year.

    The idea of trading the 16th and the 33rd for a Dman who is ready to make an impact at the NHL level?Great idea.Not having anybody have a current scouting report that would suggest said player is nowhere near being a good NHL player? Terrible.Islanders bloggers knew more about Reinhart than Chia did.Those two picks right now could be nice currency in trade or to have in the prospect cupboard ( those picks could have been busts too, so there is that)

    Hall for Larsson.You only have 1 shot when you use your biggest tradeable bullet.Use, but use wisely.Like most here, I believe it was an overpayment. I like Larsson, he is more physical than I thought, great in his own end, but does not have the elite mobility that most number 1 and number 2 Dmen have and I think that will hamper his ceiling.

    Yak for a bag ( no pucks)Was Yak such a cancer to this team, that Chia needed to get rid of him no matter what?Or was this a mistake in asset evaluation in believing that JP was ready to make a difference and getting rid of Yak was OK?It looks like this team will have a revolving door at 2RW until JP is ready.So far it has not hampered the team too much, but the 2nd line will need a right wing better than what we have moving forward.

    Marincin for a 4th.Now people can debate on how good or bad Marincin is, but he is a NHL player.And a young one.And Babcock speaks highly of him.The gap between Larsson and Marincin is a helluva lot closer to Hall and a 4th.

    He has bolstered the blue line with money ( Russell and Sekera) and by trade ( Gryba and Larsson)These adds were needed.I like these adds.

    He has given us more size with Lucic, Maroon and Kassian and I like that

    I like most of Chia’s draft picks and I like the college signings.

    But he had overpaid in the big moves, Hall,Lucic ( I absolutely love the Lucic add but make no mistake, this contract will hurt us down the road)
    the draft picks for Reinhart ( this is bad because it seems like there was no actual scouting of this player when he was in the AHL)
    Trading a mid 6 right winger who can score when on a skilled line for a bag and now we are looking a for a mid 6 right winger who can score when on a skilled line

    If Im grading him, Id be hard pressed to give him an average grade.

    I’m quoting this for truth. You didn’t mention that there were several middle six right wingers available for free and he chose none of them, but otherwise I think this is bang on.

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