THE STYLE COUNCIL

Tyler Pitlick has six NHL goals in his career, and a 17.1 shooting percentage at the NHL level. This season, his shooting percentage is 37.5, three goals on eight shots. Incredible. We know that isn’t sustainable of course, and for Pitlick the goals/shots ratio is outside his established levels:

  • Pitlick in the NCAA: 11 goals in 72 shots, 15.2 percent
  • Pitlick in the AHL: 28 goals in 425 shots, 6.59 percent
  • Pitlick in the NHL: 6 goals in 35 shots, 17.1 percent

Yeah, that’s not going to work. I have always thought Pitlick ran in bad luck in the AHL, so this NHL success is kind of hilarious, although math isn’t smiling. Can we project him as a 10 percent shooter in the NHL? I don’t think we can, and I can’t see him getting the 150 shots (he is averaging about 1 per NHL game now) in a season that would project him as a 15-goal scorer. Pitlick is a talented player, but a 4line RW until he can show an ability to move up the depth chart. His early showing implies as much, but the shooting percentage is skewing things. I think 4R is the role for him and he has the speed, size and aggressive style to fit into that slot on a Chiarelli—McLellan team.

MARK FAYNE CAN PLAY

At least once a day, I see a ridiculous comment (mostly on twitter) about Mark Fayne. Listening to some normally responsible people, you would think Fayne would be unable to walk and chew gum at the same time. Fayne does have some issues—speed, lack of offense in his game—that could cause him to fall out of the game with the next expansion. This doesn’t mean that he is incapable of helping the Oilers, and for me that has been lost in a flood of truly regrettable verbal across formats. Look, Mark Fayne’s lack of aggressiveness and speed are two reasons Kris Russell was hired, but there may come a time this season (should he get healthy again) when the veteran righty can come back and help. He is an actual NHL player. I would like to remind you of it, and express my surprise at just how quickly he has been buried by the fan base. If you believe he is worthless, carry on. I do not believe it to be the case, and would hope some degree of decorum could be maintained.

HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES, DEFENSE

defense-hd

  • This is via NaturalStatTrick.
  • Klefbom—Larsson get a giant number of HD scoring chances for, far less against. That is a terrific total this early, and a big part of it (8-2 in 35:36 Klef) comes when the pairing is on the ice with Connor McDavid. Still, without CMD the pairing comes in at 16-7 (Klef numbers) and that is pretty damned cool. Too early to make sweeping statements, but if this isn’t a top pairing, it might be close enough for jazz.
  • Sekera—Russell also have handsome numbers but have not been as successful in the McDavid time. In 35:51 with 97, Sekera is 8-7—meaning the pairing is 10-12 without the big (young) man. So, maybe that is quality of outlet pass or maybe it is luck but it is worth following.
  • Nurse—Gryba is 23:25 and 8-2 with 97 (those are Nurse numbers) meaning (for Nurse) 11-19 without—and that is the soft underbelly of the SC scheme currently being run by the Oilers. Does Brandon Davidson cut that gap by half? Leon and Nurse are 6-13 and that should be a strong line based on opp.

HIGH-DANGER SCORING CHANCES, FORWARDS

forwards-hd

  • The McDavid line are kings. If this resembles the metrics used by the Oilers, one suspects it will take a helluva lot to break up that top line. I don’t know if it is wise, but believe it to be so.
  • The Nuge line does well by HDSC percentage but haven’t converted it into the net very well (1-2 HD GF-GA for Nuge). Is that Puljujarvi being a drag? I think you could also blame Pouliot, and then again Zack Kassian is the most high event forward outside the top line. It has been a strange start.
  • The LD line should be hammering like Dick Pound based on opponent but the numbers suggest he is skating back into his own end as much as pushing the chances. I hope JP pops one or two, suspect Slepyshev and or Caggiula won’t wait forever to grab the opening.
  • The Letestu line is a good line, running some crazy luck but these dudes deserve it. Back in the olden days the guy on the extra line would sometimes get a push with Gretzky when double shifting was going on, but sometimes it works out badly. Tyler Pitlick has played with McDavid for 3:25 (HDSC 1-0), Nuge 4:54 (2-0) but gives it all back with Leon 3:40 (0-4). I do like Pitlick’s shot, seems to have some English on it, but we don’t see it enough to even contemplate it as a weapon.

SCOTT CULLEN

He will be a guest tomorrow, and his weekly rankings give a little love to the Oilers. Rankings here.

 

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

75 Responses to "THE STYLE COUNCIL"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    It’s good to know that our D is playing well even with Davidson injured, and if we lose another guy we’re moving in Fayne as the defacto 8D.

    Love him or hate him that’s a pretty good #8D.

  2. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    It’s good to know that our D is playing well even with Davidson injured, and if we lose another guy we’re moving in Fayne as the defacto 8D.

    Love him or hate him that’s a pretty good #8D.

    maybe Davidson missing 30 games means they get to keep him in the expansion! not enough exposure/good looks from LV scouts

  3. jp says:

    It’s worth noting that Pitlick’s Sh% was very bad his first couple of AHL seasons, then much closer to 10% since.

    I completely agree with your overall point, but maybe there’s a little more hope for him than that 6.6% over 5yrs suggests.

  4. Halfwise says:

    Heh. Dick Pound. Suddenly I’m a snickering 11 year old again. Thanks LT!

    The Oilers, a team in a sports league which is allegedly in the entertainment business, are actually entertaining me. I have less invested emotionally than before, but they are better in little ways like breakouts and d zone coverage.

    If every woman is beautiful from the right distance, what is the right distance to view this team from? Maybe I should edge closer this year. It would include paying for Center Ice. Can’t decide.

  5. frjohnk says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    It’s good to know that our D is playing well even with Davidson injured, and if we lose another guy we’re moving in Fayne as the defacto 8D.

    Love him or hate him that’s a pretty good #8D.

    Yup

    The HDSCA numbers are interesting. Love fooling around with them.
    Larsson away from Klefbom is 4 HDSC for and 6 HDSC against

    Russell away from Sekera is 5 HDSC for and 1 HDSC against.

    But as I said in the last thread, not every high danger chance shot attempt hits the net. Depending on the team the success rate of a shot hitting the net that is a high danger chance is anywhere from 66% to 78% ( last years numbers)

    I calculated earlier today

    So far this year. This is using Corsica. With goalies in the net. All score states. ( This does not include goalie pulled)

    Oilers

    Shots for 170
    Shots against 199

    From the perimeter
    Shots for 58
    Shots against 68

    From the medium danger area
    Shots for 48
    Shots against 81

    From the high danger area
    Shots for 64
    Shots against 50

    Oilers are getting 81% of their high danger shot attempts for on net. 64 on net, 79 attempts
    Oilers are allowing 78% of their high danger shot attempts against on net. 50 net, 68 attempts

    Id love to see a stat from the databases that actually tells us how many shots from the various locations are actually on net when certain players are on the ice.

    So far we dont have that.

    GMONEY to the rescue?

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    I like the Style Council. They played with a lot of Jam.

  7. Zelepukin says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    It’s good to know that our D is playing well even with Davidson injured, and if we lose another guy we’re moving in Fayne as the defacto 8D.

    Love him or hate him that’s a pretty good #8D.

    Who we lose matters immensely though. Replacing Larsson with Fayne is going to have a huge impact.

    Losing McD, changes everything. The injury bug essentially destroys this team and it’s not like last year where we lost McD only to have Drai step in and put some of the best numbers in the NHL in his first 2 months.

    I just hope that we can keep this train moving long enough that collectively as a group, everyone’s game has been elevated and educated to the point where losing 1 or 2 key guys doesn’t bring the house down.

  8. VanIsleOil says:

    Jethro Tull:
    I like the Style Council. They played with a lot of Jam.

    They played that blue eyed soul Weller than most.

  9. jp says:

    Pitlick’s actual numbers:

    AHL yrs 1+2 106-10-23-33 206Sh 4.85%Sh%
    AHL yrs 3-5 90-18-34-52 219Sh 8.22%Sh%

    Big improvement, but still well below 10%. And absolutely nothing in those boxcars to suggest he’ll play regularly above the 4th line. Probably not the next Pisani.

  10. Georges says:

    Woodguy, if you’re around, I’ve shared an Excel file on Google Drive that looks at the PDO sustainability topic from Saturday:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BzS6NFWIPv2tNU05UTJEd19BeW8

    Google seemed a little unstable today, but I’m hoping you’ll be able to see it.

    Quick summary:

    – teams with players at the top of the all-time points per game (PPG) list consistently performed above median sh%
    – Roy, Hasek, Brodeur (and Luongo, Price, and Lundqvist) consistently performed above median sv%
    – expansion teams often performed below median sh% for several years after entering the league
    – no real pattern for expansion teams on sv%; some struggled, some seemed like regular teams

    I believe the PDO is luck argument goes like this:

    Year to year correlation of PDO stats is near zero, so exceptional sh% and sv% are not repeatable. They’re not skills, and you can’t count on beating the market every year. Year to year, teams have a 50/50 chance of performing above or below the median on those stats. Because it’s a random process, in any actual sequence of past years, we’re bound to find some teams that consistently outperform. That doesn’t mean we should go back and label those teams as having more skilled players. They’re just lucky.

    But what if we did go back and find that historically great players (according to conventional wisdom) consistently tilted the ice for their teams on the PDO stats over an extended number of seasons. Either these players and teams are just an unusual sequence of coin flips (PDO stats are not repeatable) or they’re not flipping the same coin (elite skills hypothesis).

    I’m suggesting that year-to-year correlation tests miss rare talents in a group where talent level is about equal. In this scenario, year-to-year correlations would stay near zero and the rare talents would keep outperforming the market without affecting the overall correlation. I also think that P(elite skill | sustained high sv%) and P(sustained high sv% | elite skill) are both high because… well because elite skills = elite stats.

    In the here and now, the problem is trying to figure out if you have Andrew Hammond or Carey Price off of one or two year’s stats. That is, of figuring out P(elite skill | a year of high sv%). You should probably be pessimistic with only that to go on because rare talents are rare.

    But McDavid was labeled a generational player a long time ago. That puts him in a category that includes Gretzky, Lemieux, and Crosby. Their teams had sustained higher than median sh%. McDavid, by everybody’s eye test, is the real thing… and his team will too.

    So if you’re committed to the PDO is luck view, you’ll give me even odds on whether McDavid’s team will do better than median on sh% every year of his career. As long as I believe he’s an elite talent, I’ll bet on his team to beat the median every year.

  11. Kepler62 says:

    They’ve been patient with Pitlick for this long, just be patient a little longer. He’s clearly got the skill, now he just needs confidence and NHL experience – then he could be a real good role player for this bottom 6. Could easily see him slotting onto the 3rd line at some point in a secondary scoring role and putting up 15G a season for a few years.

  12. Richard S.S. says:

    Anyone know how to download the Oilers’ Schedule onto an iPhone’s Calendar?

  13. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Off topic but a buddy of mine is officiating his first game tonight in the NHL in Montreal.
    So when the officiating sucks, I’ll know who to talk to.
    Here’s a link providing the background to his story.
    http://scoutingtherefs.com/2016/10/15344/referee-chris-schlenker-to-make-nhl-debut-in-montreal/

  14. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Off topic but a buddy of mine is officiating his first game tonight in the NHL in Montreal.
    So when the officiating sucks, I’ll know who to talk to.
    Here’s a link providing the background to his story.
    http://scoutingtherefs.com/2016/10/15344/referee-chris-schlenker-to-make-nhl-debut-in-montreal/

    Very cool. Thanks for this!

  15. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    The video in that article from CTV only shows highlights of his fights, but he had some serious talent. He was one of the best Senior Hockey players I ever did see when he suited up for the Eston Ramblers about 8 years ago. He would play the full 60 minutes mostly at defence but a little bit of forward.
    So, with officiating he’ll be used to being on the ice for the full 60.

  16. wheatnoil says:

    On Nurse / Gryba: They’ve been doing a good job defending controlled zone entries via my tracking. They’re not turning the puck over a ton either. YET, they seem to be on the ice for a large number of HDSC against.

    I’m wondering if part of the problem is their positioning in the defensive zone. I seem to notice they are slightly out of position and so aren’t in the right place to box out or to break up possession from the other team. They actually have the lowest number of defensive zone passes / 60 compared to the other two pairs.

    I’m trying to think of a way to track this to see if my hypothesis is true. I’m contemplating “break-ups / 60”, which would be removal of possession from the other team.

  17. kinger_OIL says:

    Georges,

    – This is really interesting! I know it’s heretic, but i have long been suspicious about the two underlying assumptions that drive the PDO: 1. Shooting percentage is primarily luck-driven, and 2. Save percentage is primarily luck-driven. I think good players can sustain high shooting averages, and think good goalies can sustain high saving percentages over numerous seasons.

    – Last year Montreal is a good example: their PDO sucked, as did their goalie. But for a number of years prior they were a high PDO team. Pitts is generally above 1, as is Washington, because Sid has a 14% sh%, and Ovi 12% over a lot of years

    – So a team with a good scorers generally have higher PDO’s, and Price helps MTL SV%, becasue his SV% is above .925 most years

    – Certainly there are some “clues”, in PDO: like Edmonton isn’t going to finish the season with a 1.05, or for periods of time a team is having some real bad luck,.

  18. Dino says:

    Off topic: just wanted to point out that Chiarelli traded Ben scrivens away for Zack Kassian. One player is in the KHL now and the other has played an important role on the team scoring 4 points in 6 games so far. Chiarelli gets a lot of heat for some moves he’s made but I just want to point out he’s made some solid moves too, this being one of them.

  19. kinger_OIL says:

    Dino,

    – yeah it’s interesting that because the team is playing well, and we have a bona-fide D, some aren’t willing to applaud Chia at all. But when the team loses a few in a row, they will be out in droves attacking him.

    – Don’t see how the difference in the team with significant improvement to the roster, which is translating into wins right now (although PDO will regress!) isn’t on Chia: sure he’s not perfect

  20. supernova says:

    I really hope Pitlick gets himself into 50 plus games.
    With expansion on the horizon he then has a decent chance at having a ok career.
    he has a good shot but unlikely he stays north of 10 % shooting percentage

  21. supernova says:

    That Klefbom-Larsson pairing is so good to watch. I hope the start crushing all the metrics.

    I won’t take for granted a D-pair that can play 20 plus minutes a game that can hamper the opposition significantly and also generate on offence.

    Watching years and years of screaming at the TV and simply saying man do we need a pairing that can do the above is what we need to help turn north.

  22. wheatnoil says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Georges,

    – This is really interesting!I know it’s heretic, but i have long been suspicious about the two underlying assumptions that drive the PDO: 1.Shooting percentage is primarily luck-driven, and 2. Save percentage is primarily luck-driven. I think good players can sustain high shooting averages, and think good goalies can sustain high saving percentages over numerous seasons.

    – Last year Montreal is a good example: their PDO sucked, as did their goalie.But for a number of years prior they were a high PDO team.Pitts is generally above 1, as is Washington, because Sid has a 14% sh%, and Ovi 12% over a lot of years

    – So a team with a good scorers generally have higher PDO’s, and Price helps MTL SV%, becasue his SV% is above .925 most years

    – Certainly there are some “clues”, in PDO: like Edmonton isn’t going to finish the season with a 1.05, or for periods of time a team is having some real bad luck,.

    This is my understanding of PDO as it relates to your comment Kinger.

    I think it’s been reasonably well established that elite goaltending can have a slight increase in PDO that is sustainable. That hasn’t borne out to be true of shooting percentage. That said, there are some players who consistently maintain an above average shooting percentage and some elite players (Crosby) that actually raise the shooting percentage of his line mates. I do wonder if McDavid can be one of those players.

    Thing is, while individuals can raise shooting percentage, no team has been able to amass a critically large number of them. So their impact on the team’s total shooting percentage is somewhat negligible. Save percentage is different because you’re going to play that same elite goalie in 50-60 games and that has a massive impact on overall team save percentage.

  23. skidplate says:

    So there is some talk that Douglas Hamilton might be on the market.

    He would be a good fit. The ever popular 3 way trade? Not likely.

  24. wheatnoil says:

    supernova:
    That Klefbom-Larsson pairing is so good to watch. I hope the start crushing all the metrics.

    I won’t take for granted a D-pair that can play 20 plus minutes a game that can hamper the opposition significantly and also generate on offence.

    Watching years and years of screaming at the TV and simply saying man do we need a pairing that can do the above is what we need to help turn north.

    They’re a wonderful pairing in that they can both defend, they can both pass the puck, and Klefbom has some skills in the offensive zone when it comes to holding the line and moving the puck, even if he doesn’t get a lot of shots.

  25. Georges says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Hi Kinger. I’m not arguing against PDO stats being luck driven. (The near zero year-to-year correlations make that a tough position to defend.) I’m arguing against viewing them as being entirely luck driven and not revealing of underlying skill.

    I think great offensive players are better than good offensive players at getting the puck into spots that make it tough on their opponents. This could be by having an Ovechkin-like shot or doing what McDavid did yesterday on that 2-on-1, calmly skating around the defenceman and finding Nurse. Great offensive players make plays that good offensive players don’t (or can’t) make. They make more of their chances.

    This is the part of the PDO is luck argument that I’m wondering about and I guess trying to argue against, that there are only chances and that no one, absolutely no one can consistently make more out of a given number of chances. I think this holds for most teams and players because they’re in the standard skill category; I don’t think it holds for elite players.

  26. Lowetide says:

    skidplate:
    So there is some talk that Douglas Hamilton might be on the market.

    He would be a good fit. The ever popular 3 way trade? Not likely.

    I vote yes!

  27. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: I vote yes!

    Ricki’s head would explode

    He’d need to be paired with Davidson

  28. supernova says:

    wheatnoil: They’re a wonderful pairing in that they can both defend, they can both pass the puck, and Klefbom has some skills in the offensive zone when it comes to holding the line and moving the puck, even if he doesn’t get a lot of shots.

    I am wondering if Larsson gets more aggressive offensively when he feels mores comfortable.

    Hoping so

  29. wheatnoil says:

    supernova: I am wondering if Larsson gets more aggressive offensively when he feels mores comfortable.

    Hoping so

    It’s possible, but we’ve seen what has happened when we bank on someone suddenly developing something they’ve never shown before. The nice thing about this situation is Larsson doesn’t need to improve in this area. He can play his game with Klefbom (or, I would imagine, Sekera) and be just fine. If he develops something new, then that’s a bonus.

    That all said, he did lead the Devils in points by defencemen last year, so I should probably not undercut his offensive ability too much.

  30. jm363561 says:

    Absolutely terrific write up LT – something like this every ten games would be great. Zone starts seem to have dropped off the radar – maybe these could be summarised in a future table.

    Only six games in, and a soft schedule, but what a great start and so many players exceeding expectations – Pitlick, Letestu, Sleps, Lander, Russell – and many others at the top of their game. I had a really bad feeling about Nurse – Gryba but so far not a total train wreck, although better by eye than metrics. My biggest concern at the start of the season was Larsson being another Reinhart or Fayne. I have seen “bullet proof” used to describe the Volvos, and will wait for the ten game mark before cracking open the champagne, but so far just love them.

    If they could just fix the frigging PP.

  31. stush18 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Ricki’s head would explode

    He’d need to be paired with Davidson

    Can you imagine?

    Klef-larsson
    Sekera-Hamilton
    Davidson-russel
    Nurse

  32. franksterra says:

    straw poll:

    – Lindholm
    – Trouba
    – Hamilton
    – none/not this year
    – other
    – asap
    – deadline

  33. spoiler says:

    Wouldn’t we need to dump some salary to take on Hamilton?

  34. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil:
    On Nurse / Gryba: They’ve been doing a good job defending controlled zone entries via my tracking. They’re not turning the puck over a ton either. YET, they seem to be on the ice for a large number of HDSC against.

    I’m wondering if part of the problem is their positioning in the defensive zone. I seem to notice they are slightly out of position and so aren’t in the right place to box out or to break up possession from the other team. They actually have the lowest number of defensive zone passes / 60 compared to the other two pairs.

    I’m trying to think of a way to track this to see if my hypothesis is true. I’m contemplating “break-ups / 60”, which would be removal of possession from the other team.

    -It could be postioning,
    -it could also be positioning of the forwards they are playing with while defending
    -it could be players they are playing with not winning the puck battles/getting to loose pucks
    -it could be they do not get to pucks after a shot attempt like the top 4 do
    -it could be that they do not win the puck battles like the top 4 do.
    -it could be that they do not move the puck as well as the top 4 do.

    If we look at these on ice metrics for our top 6 D

    CA/60
    Oscar Klefbom 52.9
    Adam Larsson 57.6
    Eric Gryba 58.7
    Andrej Sekera 61.5
    Darnell Nurse 61.9
    Kris Russell 62.7

    SA/60
    Oscar Klefbom 27.7
    Andrej Sekera 27.7
    Adam Larsson 28.8
    Kris Russell 29.9
    Eric Gryba 34.5
    Darnell Nurse 37.9

    SCA/60
    Kris Russell 16.7
    Oscar Klefbom 19.7
    Andrej Sekera 21.1
    Adam Larsson 21.3
    Darnell Nurse 24.0
    Eric Gryba 26.5

    HDCA/60
    Oscar Klefbom 5.5
    Adam Larsson 7.5
    Kris Russell 8.6
    Andrej Sekera 11.5
    Eric Gryba 15.0
    Darnell Nurse 15.3

    We see Nurse and Gryba at the bottom for most metrics.

    But if we subtract High Danger Chances Against from Scoring Chances Against so we are left with medium danger scoring chances we get these numbers

    MDCA/60
    Kris Russell 8.0
    Darnell Nurse 8.7
    Andrej Sekera 9.6
    Eric Gryba 11.5
    Adam Larsson 13.8
    Oscar Klefbom 14.2

    (Russell looks decent to pretty good when it comes to anything but corsi)

    Nurse and Gryba dont look too bad here, so I am wondering if part of their not good HDCA numbers is that they dont move the puck as well as the top 4, which means they are defending more. And of because of inexperience (Nurse) and limited skill ( Gryba) when defending more, they are more apt to get out of position and hence more tire fires. More tire fires lead to higher events against like higher danger chances against.

    Larson and Klefbom are not exactly keeping everything to the outside, they are allowing quite a bit of medium danger chances against, but I do like this pair. They aint even warmed up yet.

    We really wont know unless we were to go back to video and actually see how each high danger, corsi, etc event unfolded and who screwed up big time and who had a minor role in the event against happening.

    Nurse is moving the puck out better than last year right? And Gryba is not very good as moving the puck out right? If Nurse was with Davidson and Davidson was moving the puck as efficient as last year,he was good last year right? ( and if my theory of better puck movement out of the zone = less tire fires is correct) the Nurse pairing would be defending way less and hence less events against.

  35. wheatnoil says:

    jm363561:
    Absolutely terrific write up LT – something like this every ten games would be great. Zone starts seem to have dropped off the radar – maybe these could be summarised in a future table.

    http://hockeyviz.com/static/img/team/shiftStarts/1617/shiftStarts-1617-EDM.png

    Interestingly, the defence is pretty tight around neutral with Larsson / Klefbom skewing more defensive. Lucic gets more offensive zone minutes but McDavid ends up with a bunch of extra defensive zone starts to go along with those offensive zone starts. Letestu is the main forward that gets the defensive end of things but, interestingly, none of the Oiler centres are really being sheltered with the soft parade.

  36. Georges says:

    wheatnoil,

    The Penguins are the best example of sustained above median sh%. Above during the Lemieux and Jagr run. Below period after Jagr leaves. Mostly above for the Crosby and Malkin years until they decided in the last year or two to become a possessiony team.

    Sakic and Forsberg Avalanche teams are another good example. Panthers are a good example of having an offensive skill deficit over a number of years.

    Also, I’m guessing that if you have an elite player, his line goes and gets you a lead and the other lines get outshot protecting the lead. Meaning the weaker players’ lower shot volume helps your team’s overall sh%. GM’s would probably build around elite talent and look to pad out the team with qualities it doesn’t already have. Role players.

  37. Gerta Rauss says:

    spoiler:
    Wouldn’t we need to dump some salary to take on Hamilton?

    Kris Russel is $3.1M-that’s a start

    /jk
    /not really

  38. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: I vote yes!

    Ted Nugent for Dougie?

  39. Centre of attention says:

    wheatnoil: It’s possible, but we’ve seen what has happened when we bank on someone suddenly developing something they’ve never shown before. The nice thing about this situation is Larsson doesn’t need to improve in this area. He can play his game with Klefbom (or, I would imagine, Sekera) and be just fine. If he develops something new, then that’s a bonus.

    That all said, he did lead the Devils in points by defencemen last year, so I should probably not undercut his offensive ability too much.

    The Coach thinks he has it too. And gave him some second unit time during pre-season just as a taste. That is an important thing.

    To be honest Larsson will probably never score 40 points in a season, but I think he will have more than 20. Somewhere in the middle seems reasonable. Fair?

  40. Oilspill says:

    Was at the Classic with very good seats…268.00 ea for the pair. I don’t know how many times the third pairing D put the pucks to the forwards who couldn’t handle it(for one reason or another) or had it stripped. The forwards were too high not supporting much of the time. They will need to get this figured out. This I assume affects corsi.

  41. LadiesloveSmid says:

    wheatnoil: http://hockeyviz.com/static/img/team/shiftStarts/1617/shiftStarts-1617-EDM.png

    Interestingly, the defence is pretty tight around neutral with Larsson / Klefbom skewing more defensive. Lucic gets more offensive zone minutes but McDavid ends up with a bunch of extra defensive zone starts to go along with those offensive zone starts. Letestu is the main forward that gets the defensive end of things but, interestingly, none of the Oiler centres are really being sheltered with the soft parade.

    McDavid gets the D-zone starts so he can take it end to end on his own, Lucic’s value in the O-zone

  42. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk: -It could be postioning,
    -it could also be positioning of the forwards they are playing with while defending
    -it could be players they are playing with not winning the puck battles/getting to loose pucks
    -it could be they do not get to pucks after a shot attempt like the top 4 do
    -it could be that they do not win the puck battles like the top 4 do.
    -it could be that they do not move the puck as well as the top 4 do.

    Nurse and Gryba dont look too bad here, so I am wondering if part of their not good HDCA numbers is that they dont move the puck as well as the top 4, which means they are defending more.And of because of inexperience (Nurse) and limited skill ( Gryba) when defending more, they are more apt to get out of position and hence more tire fires.More tire fires lead to higher events against like higher danger chances against.

    Larson and Klefbom are not exactly keeping everything to the outside, they are allowing quite a bit of medium danger chances against, but I do like this pair.They aint even warmed up yet.

    We really wont know unless we were to go back to video and actually see how each high danger, corsi, etc event unfolded and who screwed up big time and who had a minor role in the event against happening.

    Nurse is moving the puck out better than last year right? If Nurse was with Davidson and Davidson was moving the puck as efficient as last year, ( and if my theory of better puck movement out of the zone = less tire fires is correct) the Nurse pairing would be defending way less and hence less events against.

    Interestingly, the combination of Gryba and Nurse haven’t been terrible at puck movement. They’re not turning the puck over and they get it out of the zone reasonably efficiently. When they get the puck, they do okay.

    So it could be the forwards they’re playing with.

    However, one problem is that they’re not getting the puck. They both have the lowest number of touches of the puck in the defensive zone.

    That’s why I’m hypothesizing that they’re not in position to break the cycle OR they’re not winning puck battles OR getting to pucks after a shot. The latter two should at least indirectly impact the number of touches / 60 in the defensive zone. The first one would not, hence me wondering about tracking to see if they break up possession from the other team more often.

    Another possibility, though, is that their high HDSC against is mostly chance. They haven’t been giving the puck up, they aren’t allowing controlled zone entries against… possibly it just so happened that they are not screwing up often but when they do, the other team is cashing. If so, then over time we should see their HDSC migrate back to their corsi as (theoretically) their luck evens out over time.

  43. OilClog says:

    Fayne is not a quality defender anymore, and never has been in his time playing in the Western Conference. He’s not mobile, Ryan Whitney post pirate leg got walked around less then Mark Fayne.

    He can’t pass, doesn’t use his body, he’s always always always giving away his positive body positioning at the first hint of push back.

    At his salary being a #8 defender is atrocious, he’s not a top 6 on this team, he absolutely must be at that salary tag. He’s as useless as Nikitin, not a thing about him ended up being as billed.

    Chia’s next greatest move will be to land Mark Fayne in one of the Oilers division opponents laps as a top 6.

  44. Gerta Rauss says:

    Where did the Hamilton whispers originate..?

    Why would Calgary suddenly want to move him 6 games into the season..?

    Anybody..?

  45. wheatnoil says:

    Georges,

    Interesting. How much above median were the Penguins over the years?

    Edit: I realize I’m saying ‘interesting’ a LOT. I should probably stop that.

  46. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss: Kris Russel is $3.1M-that’s a start

    /jk
    /not really

    lol… I was thinking Fayne but didn’t want to go there in case our host tore me a new twitterverse. Man, he can be vicious. NY Times cross words vicious.
    😉

    But you’re right… the Flames would likely be looking for Russell in return.

    But if the rumour is right and the Flames are looking to move him, that’s two dressing rooms he’s burned through already in his young career… one of which contained Chara, Bergeron and Marchand.

    Not sure I want him in ours.

    Because I had to look it up: Hamilton’s AAV is $5.75M.

  47. jm363561 says:

    Nurse is moving the puck out better than last year right? And Gryba is not very good as moving the puck out right? If Nurse was with Davidson and Davidson was moving the puck as efficient as last year,he was good last year right? ( and if my theory of better puck movement out of the zone = less tire fires is correct) the Nurse pairing would be defending way less and hence less events against.

    ===

    Right!

    Great post.

  48. wheatnoil says:

    Centre of attention: The Coach thinks he has it too. And gave him some second unit time during pre-season just as a taste. That is an important thing.

    To be honest Larsson will probably never score 40 points in a season, but I think he will have more than 20. Somewhere in the middle seems reasonable. Fair?

    40 would put him in the top 30 among all defencemen, so I agree that’s not likely. 20 points would put him in the top 90… so kind of like a #3 defenceman in total points on the team. I’d be more than happy with that.

  49. spoiler says:

    wheatnoil,

    Least minutes D on the team so I’d go with chance till there’s more data.

  50. wheatnoil says:

    LadiesloveSmid: McDavid gets the D-zone starts so he can take it end to end on his own, Lucic’s value in the O-zone

    I’ve wondered about this very thing and brought it up on this blog previously. McDavid is SO dangerous on the rush, that might be able to do more with defensive zone starts than most other centres. It may be a viable tactic if it means putting RNH and Drai in better zone start positions and they are able to take advantage of their better zone starts.

  51. Georges says:

    wheatnoil,

    1987-1988 0.9%
    1988-1989 3.0%
    1989-1990 1.8%
    1990-1991 2.7% Jagr
    1991-1992 2.2%
    1992-1993 1.6%
    1993-1994 0.3%
    1994-1995 3.2%
    1995-1996 3.7%
    1996-1997 2.2% last peak Lemieux
    1997-1998 0.7%
    1998-1999 2.1%
    1999-2000 1.4%
    2000-2001 1.9% last Jagr
    2001-2002 -0.6%
    2002-2003 -0.2%
    2003-2004 0.0%
    2005-2006 0.3% Crosby
    2006-2007 1.8% Malkin
    2007-2008 1.2%
    2008-2009 1.4%
    2009-2010 0.3%
    2010-2011 -0.3%
    2011-2012 0.9%
    2012-2013 2.2%
    2013-2014 0.9%
    2014-2015 -0.5%
    2015-2016 -0.1%

  52. Water Fire says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Where did the Hamilton whispers originate..?

    Why would Calgary suddenly want to move him 6 games into the season..?

    Anybody..?

    I’m wondering the same thing.

  53. Gerta Rauss says:

    spoiler,

    lol

    Yeah, this doesn’t pass the smell test to me

    If Hamilton is already on the outs with Calgary you have to think twice

    I saw the tweet posted earlier in the day, but that seemed to say Calgary wasn’t shopping him

  54. jm363561 says:

    4.00 a.m. in London (England, not Ontario) and really enjoying some fantastic posts while totally jet lagged.

    LT – not sure when you added credit cards to your donations MO but you might want to publicise this (or are you so rich?😀). PayPal does not allow donations from the Philippines, and maybe other countries that feature near the top of the corruption charts).

  55. wheatnoil says:

    Georges,

    Eyeballing it, it looks like the greatest impact was in the 90s with Jagr / Lemieux. The Crosby / Malkin era is certainly more positive than negative but less pronounced with only one year 2% over the median.

    It’s something, though. A 1% difference would be pretty significant. It’s worth about 20 – 27 goals a year, depending on number of shots. That’s worth a few extra wins for sure.

  56. wheatnoil says:

    spoiler:
    wheatnoil,

    Least minutes D on the team so I’d go with chance till there’s more data.

    The stats I’m tracking are per 60, so that should even out the ice time bit.

    But yeah, this early it’s probably chance. Especially since last year he was poor in every category, but not disproportionately worse in HDSC. So this would be a new development.

    Still… I’m curious.

  57. jm363561 says:

    wheatnoil: http://hockeyviz.com/static/img/team/shiftStarts/1617/shiftStarts-1617-EDM.png

    Interestingly, the defence is pretty tight around neutral with Larsson / Klefbom skewing more defensive. Lucic gets more offensive zone minutes but McDavid ends up with a bunch of extra defensive zone starts to go along with those offensive zone starts. Letestu is the main forward that gets the defensive end of things but, interestingly, none of the Oiler centres are really being sheltered with the soft parade.
    =====

    Thanks for this – quite a challenge to read on the iPad FYI. Letestu and Lander get rough starts but not quite as brutal as I had thought. I still believe in Anton!

  58. Woodguy says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy, if you’re around, I’ve shared an Excel file on Google Drive that looks at the PDO sustainability topic from Saturday:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BzS6NFWIPv2tNU05UTJEd19BeW8

    Google seemed a little unstable today, but I’m hoping you’ll be able to see it.

    Quick summary:

    – teams with players at the top of the all-time points per game (PPG) list consistently performed above median sh%
    – Roy, Hasek, Brodeur (and Luongo, Price, and Lundqvist) consistently performed above median sv%
    – expansion teams often performed below median sh% for several years after entering the league
    – no real pattern for expansion teams on sv%; some struggled, some seemed like regular teams

    I believe the PDO is luck argument goes like this:

    Year to year correlation of PDO stats is near zero, so exceptional sh% and sv% are not repeatable. They’re not skills, and you can’t count on beating the market every year. Year to year, teams have a 50/50 chance of performing above or below the median on those stats. Because it’s a random process, in any actual sequence of past years, we’re bound to find some teams that consistently outperform. That doesn’t mean we should go back and label those teams as having more skilled players. They’re just lucky.

    But what if we did go back and find that historically great players (according to conventional wisdom) consistently tilted the ice for their teams on the PDO stats over an extended number of seasons. Either these players and teams are just an unusual sequence of coin flips (PDO stats are not repeatable) or they’re not flipping the same coin (elite skills hypothesis).

    I’m suggesting that year-to-year correlation tests miss rare talents in a group where talent level is about equal. In this scenario, year-to-year correlations would stay near zero and the rare talents would keep outperforming the market without affecting the overall correlation. I also think that P(elite skill | sustained high sv%) and P(sustained high sv% | elite skill) are both high because… well because elite skills = elite stats.

    In the here and now, the problem is trying to figure out if you have Andrew Hammond or Carey Price off of one or two year’s stats. That is, of figuring out P(elite skill | a year of high sv%). You should probably be pessimistic with only that to go on because rare talents are rare.

    But McDavid was labeled a generational player a long time ago. That puts him in a category that includes Gretzky, Lemieux, and Crosby. Their teams had sustained higher than median sh%. McDavid, by everybody’s eye test, is the real thing… and his team will too.

    So if you’re committed to the PDO is luck view, you’ll give me even odds on whether McDavid’s team will do better than median on sh% every year of his career. As long as I believe he’s an elite talent, I’ll bet on his team to beat the median every year.

    Good stuff.

    My only questions regarding the sh% is that even if McDavid will be a consistent driver of higher than average onsh%, is he on the ice enough to push the team needle?

    Elite goalies are always on the ice so their ability to effect the sv% is obvious, but shooting is a different equation.

  59. Richard S.S. says:

    Chaos Magian,

    Thanks, but no joy.

  60. Georges says:

    Woodguy,

    Here’s my theory.

    If McDavid is going to be an elite player, then it’ll show up year over year in his points per game. Over a season, he’ll create more goals than a very good player and many more goals than a typical player. You get more goals by either increasing the volume of shots or increasing the percentage of shots you convert or a little bit of both.

    G’s DFF metric gets at the idea that some shots are better than others. I agree with that.

    In order to get to elite PPG, elite players can either create better shots or they can create more shots. From what I can see in the data, I think the bigger factor is that elite players create better shots. Creating more shots is a team and systems thing… it’s Corsi, a repeatable skill. Creating better shots is a talent thing… it’s a repeatable skill but only for elite talent.

    As far as how this translates at the team level, you saw it yesterday. Nurse from McDavid and Kassian. He creates better shots for whoever he’s playing with. He alters the shot quality distribution for his entire team. And, by being a devastating offensive weapon, he allows his teammates to focus on not losing, i.e., protecting the lead or tie. He reduces their need to take (lower quality) shots. And, of course, he’ll play a lot of minutes.

    That’s my theory anyway.

  61. theDjdj says:

    LT, could you ask Cullen’s reasoning on Torontos placing in his power rankings. Seems too much like wishful thinking for a team with one win. Maybe somebody here could fill me in on something I’m missing. Good possession but bad tending perhaps?

  62. LadiesloveSmid says:

    wheatnoil: I’ve wondered about this very thing and brought it up on this blog previously. McDavid is SO dangerous on the rush, that might be able to do more with defensive zone starts than most other centres. It may be a viable tactic if it means putting RNH and Drai in better zone start positions and they are able to take advantage of their better zone starts.

    Give McD some more D-zone starts with KlefLar, stick a better transition LW with 97 (Pouliot). Put Looch with the centres getting the O-zone starts for board play over zone entry.

  63. SwedishPoster says:

    Pitlick is a nice but limited player. He does the absolute basics of hockey extremely well, meaning shooting, hitting and skating really fast in straight lines. The other more subtle things not so much and that’s why I have a hard time seeing him being effective above the bottom six over any length of time. But it looks like he does the basics at a high enough level for him to contribute and be a real strong fourth liner who can do spot duty higher up in the lineup as long as his body doesn’t fall apart. The trick will be to not overpay him if/when he has a highscoring season which isn’t unlikely with his shot, if he has a year where everything is rolling he could possibly hit a surprisingly high, and probably unsustainable, number of goals.

  64. Stelio Kontos says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy,

    Here’s my theory.

    If McDavid is going to be an elite player, then it’ll show up year over year in his points per game. Over a season, he’ll create more goals than a very good player and many more goals than a typical player. You get more goals by either increasing the volume of shots or increasing the percentage of shots you convert or a little bit of both.

    G’s DFF metric gets at the idea that some shots are better than others. I agree with that.

    In order to get to elite PPG, elite players can either create better shots or they can create more shots. From what I can see in the data, I think the bigger factor is that elite players create better shots. Creating more shots is a team and systems thing… it’s Corsi, a repeatable skill. Creating better shots is a talent thing… it’s a repeatable skill but only for elite talent.

    As far as how this translates at the team level, you saw it yesterday. Nurse from McDavid and Kassian. He creates better shots for whoever he’s playing with. He alters the shot quality distribution for his entire team. And, by being a devastating offensive weapon, he allows his teammates to focus on not losing, i.e., protecting the lead or tie. He reduces their need to take (lower quality) shots. And, of course, he’ll play a lot of minutes.

    That’s my theory anyway.

    Patrick shoot from anywhere O’Sullivan says hi.

  65. Robinthe403 says:

    LT feel free to delete this comment if if falls under the ‘uncorroborated hearsay’ category…

    Those of you wishing for a mystical trade for a top 4 RHD using Mark Fayne as a trade piece can cool your jets. Fayne had surgery last week, a significant procedure, not a nip/tuck scope…

    To my knowledge the Oilers have not commented on his injury status after leaving the Carolina game but the injury that forced him from the game is a long term recovery type.

    I’m not gonna disclose my source but it is absolutely somebody with first hand knowledge, involved with the surgery.

    Again, delete if you want LT but this info is gospel.

    Peace out.

  66. Hooperdan says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Klima, do you mind me asking where you’re from? I remember your post about Hasek at Senlac bar and also remember Schlenker playing for Eston. I’m from Macklin so I’m guessing were from the same general area?

  67. Edmonton_fan says:

    If I am allowed to point out – I mentioned months ago that Lander would be kept on the team – his salary & defensive ability would justify it.

  68. stush18 says:

    Hooperdan:
    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Klima,do you mind me asking where you’re from?I remember your post about Hasek at Senlac bar and also remember Schlenker playing for Eston.I’m from Macklin so I’m guessing were from the same general area?

    What the heck. I’m from macklin too. What a coincidence

  69. Marc says:

    I wonder if the Fayne injury will mean a one year contract extension for Gryba?

    Under the expansion draft rules the Oilers are required to expose: “One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.”

    The only Oilers D that currently meet that requirement are: Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera and Fayne (just – the St Louis game was his 70th in the last two seasons). Fayne is the obvious choice.

    The rules also state however, that payers with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club’s player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

    If Fayne’s injury is potentially career threatening (and for a veteran player his age who is a regular healthy scratch, any serious injury is potentially career threatening) he might not count.

    There’s no chance that the Oilers expose Klefbom, Larsson or Sekera, so if Fayne doesn’t count the Oilers options would be:
    – hope that Davidson gets healthy enough to play 12 more games this season and expose him;
    – give up an asset to another team prior to the expansion draft to acquire a D who meets the requirements; or
    – give Gryba a one year contract extension and play him at least 13 more games this season.

    The last option seems like the best one to me.

    EDIT: Klefbom actually doesn’t meet the games played requirement at the moment, but health permitting he should by the end of the year.

  70. jp says:

    wheatnoil: 40 would put him in the top 30 among all defencemen, so I agree that’s not likely. 20 points would put him in the top 90… so kind of like a #3 defenceman in total points on the team. I’d be more than happy with that.

    In 14-15 and 15-16 Larsson is 82nd among NHL Dmen in points: 146-6-36-42. He has zero PP points during that span. Take out PP scoring, and he jumps to 47th in Pts among D. Pretty damned impressive actually.

    I agree he might never put up 40, but with even a bit of PP time he should move into the 30 Pts range.

  71. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Pitlick is a nice but limited player. He does the absolute basics of hockey extremely well, meaning shooting, hitting and skating really fast in straight lines. The other more subtle things not so much and that’s why I have a hard time seeing him being effective above the bottom six over any length of time. But it looks like he does the basics at a high enough level for him to contribute and be a real strong fourth liner who can do spot duty higher up in the lineup as long as his body doesn’t fall apart. The trick will be to not overpay him if/when he has a highscoring season which isn’t unlikely with his shot, if he has a year where everything is rolling he could possibly hit a surprisingly high, and probably unsustainable, number of goals.

    My hope is that Pitlick turns into a Kyle Brodziak type player – but one that the Oilers don’t give up on too early and allow to go somewhere else and provide a solid 4th line presence.

    These sorts of players are needed in the lineup. Guys that can be fast on the forecheck, disrupt the opposing teams flow and clog things up for a bit in the O zone while the major talents gets a breather. Also – and this maybe too old school to be accepted, putting the fear into other teams with a big hit now and then creates time and space for the shifty talent.

    I’ve always felt that a major failing of the “highly talent laden but bottom dwelling Oilers” has been that they never deliver that physical element that makes teams back off a bit. Call me old and curmudgeon!

    Anyway, I’m cheering for Pitlick to stick around. He’s sure had his share of injury woes!

    Also – side note – shame the Flames got the SO winner last night. I was hoping for a bit more from Chicago, not a great effort.

  72. kinger_OIL says:

    Georges:
    kinger_OIL,

    Hi Kinger. I’m not arguing against PDO stats being luck driven. (The near zero year-to-year correlations make that a tough position to defend.) I’m arguing against viewing them as being entirely luck driven and not revealing of underlying skill.

    I think great offensive players are better than good offensive players at getting the puck into spots that make it tough on their opponents. This could be by having an Ovechkin-like shot or doing what McDavid did yesterday on that 2-on-1, calmly skating around the defenceman and finding Nurse. Great offensive players make plays that good offensive players don’t (or can’t) make. They make more of their chances.

    This is the part of the PDO is luck argument that I’m wondering about and I guess trying to argue against, that there are only chances and that no one, absolutely no one can consistently make more out of a given number of chances. I think this holds for most teams and players because they’re in the standard skill category; I don’t think it holds for elite players.

    – I think we are on the same page. Of course Ovie’s 12% SH% get blended into the other 20 guys on the team, so it just becomes a messy-middle. But I do agree that some players maintain very high above averge shooting percentages over many years, because they are elite. Over time they regress, but that is simply due to a reduction in skill level: not a mathematical regression to the mean. i.e. its not that that they became less lucky, rather they became less good.

    – And a just by eye observation: elite teams tend to have multiple years where their PDO remains above 1. And of course you get the outliers like Colorada a few years ago, etc. Again, elite teams dond’t sustain that high PDO becasue they are no longer elite, not becasue of regression (unless one is arguing that teams become elite due to randomness, and for those teams a high shooting percentage combined with a high save percentage was just luck)

  73. Oilspill says:

    ATBOZE..
    AVERAGE TIME BEFORE OFFENSIVE ZONE EXIT.
    This would tell you how effective the team(line) is getting puck out measured from time when puck enters the zone.

  74. GCW_69 says:

    franksterra:
    straw poll:

    – Lindholm
    – Trouba
    – Hamilton
    – none/not this year
    – other
    – asap
    – deadline

    Trade Nurse plus for Lindholm (Ducks should like his cap hit and expansion status) and then trade Klefbom for Trouba or Hamilton.

    But, if only one, I take Lindholm.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca