UNCLE SON

This verson of the Edmonton Oilers, the new Originals, are at times viewed as being like that old Kinks song Uncle Son. Not terribly sophisticated, a throwback, rugged, reliable and ready to bleed a little, as required. Milan Lucic personifies this group, his career basically made up of endless sorties of calamity and shrapnel contained only by the actual structure of the rink. If you liked 1970, you will love these Edmonton Oilers.

That isn’t really it, of course. The Milan Lucic verbal—enforcer, one dimension wrecking crew—is badly out of time with reality. Lucic can bring the hammer—and pass the puck well, hold on to the puck in anticipation of a play opening up, and help with the offense. He has two goals and four points in six games, seems to make sense alongside Leon but is valued as 1L by coaching and management. He leads the Oilers in one category (hits, 18) and is averaging 18:25 a night. He is not Taylor Hall, but he can help you win hockey games and is more than a Coke Machine. I keep reading he is just a big body being placed in a lucky spot, and would encourage you to disregard the nasty verbal and pay attention to the results.

OILERS FORWARDS, THROUGH SIX GAMES

forwards-after-6

  • The 5×5 scoring numbers are pretty damned good so far this year. Edmonton has 18 (!!!!) even-strength goals in the first six games, 17 by the forwards. Nine forwards listed here have at least one even-strength goal this year.
  • Pitlick, Kassian, Letestu and Slepyshev are pleasant surprises in EV scoring, while Nuge, Lucic and Maroon are shy by a little. Lucic has three even-strength points, but Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com tells us the assist was not at 5×5. No biggie, the forwards are doing good work at the metric. If you include the even-strength assist, Lucic is 2.04/60 for the season.
  • Nuge’s High Danger numbers are good, his possession number is poor and his scoring numbers are just okay. I think his line has suffered some from the lack of depth, but there are things in his resume to like.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi doesn’t have an EV point right now, but his other indicators are strong. There is a lot of adjustment for a rookie, but many of the ‘older skills’ seem to be in JPs arsenal. He is on the correct side of the puck a whole helluva lot, wins battles and is physically able to contest single moments in the game. It is difficult to transition—Dave Tippett spoke about it here—and Puljujarvi has a big part of the game required already. The offense is a concern, and that is normally an area where these youngsters flourish right away. We are far too early in the process, but the goals need to come.

OILERS DEFENSE, THROUGH SIX GAMES

oilers-d-oct-24

  • There are legit good numbers here. Let’s not call this group the Robinson-Savard-Lapointe Habs, but you can see enough NHL experience and actual ability to see the promise of something structured and effective.
  • Score effects have had an impact through these six games, but we should look for more of these Corgis to head toward and past 50.
  • Klefbom—Larsson looks good, and the 5×5/60 totals are good early for the group.
  • Darnell Nurse gets credit only for his goal, the two even-strength assists are not included in the Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com look. If you include his 1-2-3, Nurse’s even-strength/60 number is 2.17. Either way, Edmonton’s blue are more involved offensively this year than one year ago.

OILERS BY THE NUMBERS (5×5)

  • Source
  • Goals-For Percentage: 56.0 (No. 5)
  • Shots-For Percentage: 48.9 (No. 19)
  • Fenwick-For Percentage: 47.5 (No. 22)
  • Corsi-For Percentage: 47.2 (No. 23)
  • Shooting Percentage: 10.29 (No. 6)
  • Save Percentage: 92.25 (No. 10)
  • PDO: 102.5 (No. 6)

Edmonton’s shooting percentage a year ago (7.17) and the PDO of 2015-16 (98.7) are more reasonable (82 games is more reliable) than the numbers above—we should expect regression. I think the Fenwick and Corsi may improve too, we have seen some score effects through the piece. Puck on Net has the score-adjusted Corsi (49.4) and Fenwick (50.1) about even—an encouraging sign.

hamilton ferguson 141522

Rob Ferguson Photo, all rights reserved

CURTIS HAMILTON

The 2010 draft looked so good early this blog dubbed Stu MacGregor ‘Magnificent Bastard’ which is something I came to regret. The 2010 draft sure as hell took its time, but Taylor Hall, Martin Marincin and Brandon Davidson appear poised for NHL careers—and Tyler Pitlick is running down the tracks trying to catch the train. That is a pretty nice—if delayed—return from a single draft.

Curtis Hamilton was a second-round pick who—like Tyler Pitlick—lost a lot of development time due to injury. It is nice to see him doing well in the Sm-Liiga (SaiPa) where he has scored 10 goals in his first 13 league games. He turns 25 in December, so his NHL window is closing, but success in the Finnish league is a story on its own.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

10 this morning, TSN1260. A moving target this morning in terms of guests, we have two confirmed:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Will PC add if this team begins to show itself playoff worthy?
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. World Series gets underway tonight, and Scott’s power rankings show a major spike for the Oilers.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk in 90 minutes!

 

 

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99 Responses to "UNCLE SON"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    Score effects make sense until you dig a bit deeper. How come good teams have good fancies? Surely a team like Chicago or LA should have bad fancies as they’re invariably leading hockey games, so they should be taking a a shit kicking from score effects. Instead we see them dominate. Perhaps learning to play with the lead isba thing.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Score effects make sense until you dig a bit deeper. How come good teams have good fancies? Surely a team like Chicago or LA should have bad fancies as they’re invariably leading hockey games, so they should be taking a a shit kicking from score effects. Instead we see them dominate. Perhaps learning to play with the lead isba thing.

    Completely fair. I always list straight Corsi because parsing (especially early) leads you down a very dangerous path, but point taken.

  3. 36 percent body fat says:

    with the way the older prospects are playing there is no reason for JP or Cag to be in the NHL.

    Hendrick and Paik are due back. You send Slep down and he may bolt to KHL and he and Pitlick have earned a spot.

    We have two great prospects there and there is no reason to keep them up and hundreds to send them down and develop them properly.

    There is a strong possibility Lander, Hendricks, Pouliot, and hopefully not Maroon will be gone next year through trades, expansion, waivers and not resigning. They will get their chance.

  4. 36 percent body fat says:

    LT,

    Neislen yesterday said Lander would be claimed on waivers. He already cleared. How many games does he need to play before he is eligible again?

  5. supernova says:

    I was looking at the 10 & 11 drafts recently.
    Perhaps by the end of the season it is reasonable that those 2 drafts produced 7 NHL players with close to 100 or more NHL games. Injuries have had a major impact on the 2010 draft.

    I always believe in “At Bats” for prospects. I have ripped the Oilers organization for not playing young players and I will continue to do so. Young players need to play. I believe strongly in that and I have seen little to convince me otherwise.

    On that same note if the organization is done with Musil move him on. He doesn’t need to be a 6/7 guy in our organization if that’s how they see him.

  6. dcsj says:

    Something I was wondering with the conversation about shooting percentages last night. Is it possible for a player to have a higher percentage if he takes more high danger shots? Say he tends to pass if his shot opportunity is not that great? Which would be the smarter play?

    I guess that sometimes one can out think oneself and not take shots that should be taken.

  7. JJS says:

    36 percent body fat:
    with the way the older prospects are playing there is no reason for JP or Cag to be in the NHL.

    Hendrick and Paik are due back.You send Slep down and he may bolt to KHL and he and Pitlick have earned a spot.

    We have two great prospects there and there is no reason to keep them up and hundreds to send them down and develop them properly.

    There is a strong possibility Lander, Hendricks, Pouliot, and hopefully not Maroon will be gone next year through trades, expansion, waivers and not resigning.They will get their chance.

    I agree. This may be the home stretch for Hendricks so let him play it out (until the deadline at least).

    I have liked aspects of JPs game but would much rather he sharpen his edge against the AHL stone.

    Regarding Cags – he is an older prospect so I would like to see him play before making a call. He may be considerably better than Lander so no real need to hold him back as Lander doesn’t appear part of the future (his skill set seems to be somewhat replaceable).

  8. frjohnk says:

    supernova: I always believe in “At Bats” for prospects. I have ripped the Oilers organization for not playing young players and I will continue to do so. Young players need to play. I believe strongly in that and I have seen little to convince me otherwise.

    This I agree with along has the prospects are not overwhelmed.

  9. frjohnk says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Score effects make sense until you dig a bit deeper. How come good teams have good fancies? Surely a team like Chicago or LA should have bad fancies as they’re invariably leading hockey games, so they should be taking a a shit kicking from score effects. Instead we see them dominate. Perhaps learning to play with the lead isba thing.

    I wrote this yesterday. Our corsi and shots on goal %’s are not great, but chance %’s are decent even with score effects.

    Just a snippet of how the Oilers have played at different times when tied, leading or trailing by 1 and how they stack up in the league.

    Oilers have played 274 minutes 5 on 5 all scores
    23rd in CF% with 47%
    19th in SF% with 48.9%
    14th in SCF% with 51.5%
    6th in HDCF% with 56.1%

    Oilers have played 82 minutes tied
    24th in CF% with 45.6%
    16th in SF% with 47.7%
    8th in SCF% with 56.8%
    12th in HDCF% with 53.7%

    Oilers have played 51 minutes up by 1
    12th in CF% with 48%
    6th in SF% with 54.4%
    13th in SCF% with 50%
    9th in HDCF% with 61.1%

    Oilers have played 29 minutes down by 1
    22nd in CF% with 50%
    22nd in SF% with 47.7%
    12th in SCF% with 54.5%
    8th in HDCF% with 64.3%

  10. digger50 says:

    Im lovin this two headed leadership monster the Oilers have going. To lead the skill we have McDavid and he does make those around him better. It’s like the old Gretzky, just practicing and watching the man improved everyone’s game.

    And then we have Lucic. Could not find a better fit to lead the grit, intensity, lunch bucket crowd. He is the missing piece that will allow the Oilers to get out from the Rodney Dangerfield reputation.

    “Edmonton is nothing without McDavid”. “Just getting lucky bounces” “play your crap against Edmonton”. Will persist for a year before other teams and fans finally give a little respect, but McDavid and Looch look up to it.

    The third component I’m not sure we are there yet but getting closer. That is who will lead the defence?
    Larson could be getting oh so close. He needs to settle in and time to gel with the group. My opinion is that while actual defensive skills are critical he also needs to be “the man” back there and show he an handle the leagues best.

    Yup, enjoying these posative signs.

  11. digger50 says:

    On providing young players with “at bats”

    Agree they need to play to improve but two things: doing things incorrectly over and over will not help them thus they need to take the time to learn. Coaching. Practice, watching veterans is a way to learn prior to big ice time.

    At every level a player moves up they need to gain confidence before they do well. Again this comes through who they are surrounded by, and how well supported they feel.

    Just sayin there is a lot more to it than throwing them out there for ice time.

  12. dustrock says:

    I wonder what portion of Drai’s stats are from his wingers. That line has done some good work along the boards, but I’m not seeing very dynamic wingers.

    I’m surprised Drai has scored to the extent he has because I saw him more as a playmaker.

  13. JustWatt says:

    I will say this about the Oilers PDO: we have no idea where it is going to go.

    It is completely reasonable to think, as LT stated, that it will regress. Historically we have been on the low side of it for several seasons, including last year. The sh% has been really good these first 6 games and Talbot has put in some quality starts. This is the safe bet that it will come back to earth.

    It is also completely reasonable to suggest it might move very little. There are always some teams above the 100 average every season. And PDO is almost never repeatable (in spite of the Oil’s ability to repeatedly have a poor #) and this suggests that its about time for Edm to swing upwards. Plus, Talbot’s had three great games but also three wobbly-to-poor games and his sv% is not stellar, merely average right now. If he continues to play strongly, like his 3 most recent outings, that sv% might rise a touch, enough to offset a correcting swing downward in sh%. If things break this way (and they reasonably could) then that PDO might be closer to right than wrong.

    I think it is a little unlikely to surge higher but it remains a possibility.

    We really have no idea. It’s fun being on the happy side of 100 though! (for now)

  14. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    JJS:

    He may be considerably better than Lander so no real need to hold him back as Lander doesn’t appear part of the future (his skill set seems to be somewhat replaceable).

    If we can keep signing Lander to deals at or below $1million I say we keep him around. Lander as a 8 min/night PKer who can help with faceoffs is fine with me. It’s only if we wants more opportunities or money that we worry about letting him go.

  15. khildahl says:

    I thought Puljujarvi had a good game on Sunday. He seemed to play less on the perimeter, found more room to get his shot off, and that heavy release seemed to give Hellebuyck trouble.

    The points will come.

  16. jfry says:

    This is exactly the type of o that we should have expected based on nhle from pj. I know a lot of people wanted to look at the tournament’s of small sample size and declare him an offensive force but the larger sample size against men suggested a large body with offensive question marks that some of us were concerned about having drafted in a very similar fashion as our Swedish friend Magnus.

    We value offense here and pj doesn’t have a consistent track record of providing it (Matt tkachuk did, but we focused on his skating and line mates and gave him very little credit as a gifted scorer).

    Pj should not be in the show at this point, and I’m not sure why were lamenting his lack of offense when it was predictable. Nhle 13.

    That isn’t an nhl ready number, and his game visually tells the same story. My .02

  17. Aron_S says:

    36 percent body fat,

    Someone with more knowledge than me may have a more accurate answer, but my understanding is that since he cleared the Oilers can send him down again in the 30 day window following his initial passing through waivers. If they tried to do it again after that 30 day window closes, he is subject to waivers all over again.

  18. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    jfry,

    Tkachuk is 5gp 1-0-1. I’m not sure writing the book on either player is wise at this point.

  19. Ribs says:

    That isn’t really it, of course. The Milan Lucic verbal—enforcer, one dimension wrecking crew—is badly out of time with reality. Lucic can bring the hammer—and pass the puck well, hold on to the puck in anticipation of a play opening up, and help with the offense. He has two goals and four points in six games, seems to make sense alongside Leon but is valued as 1L by coaching and management. He leads the Oilers in one category (hits, 18) and is averaging 18:25 a night. He is not Taylor Hall, but he can help you win hockey games and is more than a Coke Machine. I keep reading he is just a big body being placed in a lucky spot, and would encourage you to disregard the nasty verbal and pay attention to the results.

    I think this is a good point to touch on for the fans out there that don’t follow the game all that closely. Most people just remember the fights and the nastiness from prior seasons. The guy can actually play, as well!

  20. wheatnoil says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Score effects make sense until you dig a bit deeper. How come good teams have good fancies? Surely a team like Chicago or LA should have bad fancies as they’re invariably leading hockey games, so they should be taking a a shit kicking from score effects. Instead we see them dominate. Perhaps learning to play with the lead isba thing.

    Teams probably do learn to play with a lead (and while trailing). That said, the reason for using score-adjustment really comes down to the fact that it predicts future goals / wins better than regular corsi. Good teams do have good corsi. They have even better score-adjusted corsi.

    That said, as LT has mentioned, these are early numbers. Even score-adjusted corsi doesn’t do a great predictive job until at least game 10 and, even then, does much better at game 20.

  21. Showerhead says:

    I think it was G Money (sorry if it was someone else) who posted recently about relative score effects – IE a team’s Corsi while leading vs. league average Corsi while leading. That would be a good thing to keep an eye on if Edmonton keeps leading games.

    I say if because I’m still cautious about what we have here in this club. I love that they’re banking points, I love that there seems to be less BS in their game, and I sincerely believe that McDavid is in that rarefied elite top % when it comes to impacting quality scoring chances. I keep going back to that 2-on-2 McDavid and Lucic had versus St. Louis. #97 drew both players towards him and gave Lucic a completely clear path to the net.

    I sincerely believe that, to an extent, Connor McDavid can keep doing that for people. It’s going to cover a lot of warts.

    Finally, Puljujarvi. I posted a couple of times early about how all I expect is a) No own-zone BS (success!) and b) looking like the game has slowed down for him. I think he should be in the AHL where both of these things might happen faster (plus C, points!) but he continues to acquit himself well.

    The game in Winnipeg was JP’s best by far – the first game where most of his decisions with the puck on his stick were NHL paced. He could look up and see what he had and make a decision based on that without the puck dying on his stick.

    Anyway. I think he’s smart as hell, is on the right side of the puck like Lowetide says, and has the sense to play within his current limitations. That said, I still don’t think he’s good enough to help Edmonton win hockey games right now and I wish he were getting major AHL minutes instead.

  22. wheatnoil says:

    Aron_S:
    36 percent body fat,

    Someone with more knowledge than me may have a more accurate answer, but my understanding is that since he cleared the Oilers can send him down again in the 30 day window following his initial passing through waivers. If they tried to do it again after that 30 day window closes, he is subject to waivers all over again.

    30 days on the active roster OR 10 games, which ever comes first, IIRC. Lander is still good to be sent down for now without waivers.

  23. jfry says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    jfry,

    Tkachuk is 5gp 1-0-1.I’m not sure writing the book on either player is wise at this point.

    I wasn’t suggesting I was pro Mt, only that people start to get tunnel vision and see what they want to see with evaluations of prospects. Which is funny on a numbers blog.

    PJs numbers don’t scream third overall pick, when you look at the larger picture. There was a lot of “project able size and athleticism” and criticisms of the nhle for his league as opposed to real questions about sustainable offense as an 18 yo.

    I just think it’s nuts that were thinking about him having an impact this season. From a rights owned and cap perspective it makes so much more sense to continue developing him outside the nhl.

    Or continue to develop 18 yo against men at a detriment to our cap situation. Just doesn’t make sense to me. Our right wing depth is almost comical right now because of a continued desire to hope 18 year old rookies can play top 6 minutes with kassian.

    Pj could be great in a couple years, who knows but the Mo was light on offense, and I think visually that’s holding up so far this season –and statistically too.

  24. wheatnoil says:

    dcsj:
    Something I was wondering with the conversation about shooting percentages last night. Is it possible for a player to have a higher percentage if he takes more high danger shots? Say he tends to pass if his shot opportunity is not that great? Which would be the smarter play?

    I guess that sometimes one can out think oneself and not take shots that should be taken.

    More than passes, I think some shooters do end up with a higher shooting percentage because they park themselves in front of the net. If more of your shots are tips or rebounds, you’ll have a higher shooting percentage and that may be repeatable so long as you’re shooting from a higher danger location.

    When corsica.hockey loads (and its servers appear to be overwhelmed by people using it), you can check a player’s “expected shooting percentage” as well as “expected save percentage” using Manny Elk’s xG model. It might be a cool way to see if a player’s high shooting percentage is sustainable.

  25. Aron_S says:

    wheatnoil,

    Cool, didn’t realize there was a games limit too.

  26. Jethro Tull says:

    wheatnoil,

    frjohnk,

    Thanks guys. Some interesting numbers for sure. I’m hoping for a good game against the Caps on Wednesday.

    I remember the ‘moral’ victories the Oilers had with Eakins. Good possession numbers, PDO in the toilet and lots of people wondering why, or worse, looking at it as some kind of karmic dues paid and we’d be turning north soon. But it never happened, and the work you guys have done is starting to unravel the mystery.

    I always wondered if there more interlocking circles that the stats hadn’t quite evolved to yet.

    Best answer to ‘ do you even watch the game?’ is ‘yes. In order to evolve and refine what previous stats and my eyes tell me.’

  27. wheatnoil says:

    Aron_S:
    wheatnoil,

    Cool, didn’t realize there was a games limit too.

    Direct from the CBA:

    “Subject to the provisions of this Article, the rights to the services of a Player may be Loaned to a
    club of another league, upon fulfillment of the following conditions, except when elsewhere
    expressly prohibited:
    (a) Regular Waivers were requested and cleared during the Playing Season Waiver
    Period; and
    (b) the Player has not played in ten (10) or more NHL Games cumulative since
    Regular Waivers on him were last cleared, and more than thirty (30) days cumulative on an NHL
    roster have not passed since Regular Waivers on him were last cleared. ”

    Based on that it’s not clear to me if it is 10 games OR 30 days or if it’s 10 games AND 30 days. It reads like it has to be both before the player has to clear waivers but in the past I think it’s been talked about as “or”.

    Either way, in practice, it probably doesn’t matter. If you’re on the roster for 30 days you’ve probably played at least 10 games and vice versa for most situations.

  28. Thorin says:

    wheatnoil: Direct from the CBA:

    “Subject to the provisions of this Article, the rights to the services of a Player may be Loaned to a
    club of another league, upon fulfillment of the following conditions, except when elsewhere
    expressly prohibited:
    (a) Regular Waivers were requested and cleared during the Playing Season Waiver
    Period; and
    (b) the Player has not played in ten (10) or more NHL Games cumulative since
    Regular Waivers on him were last cleared, and more than thirty (30) days cumulative on an NHL
    roster have not passed since Regular Waivers on him were last cleared. ”

    Based on that it’s not clear to me if it is 10 games OR 30 days or if it’s 10 games AND 30 days. It reads like it has to be both before the player has to clear waivers but in the past I think it’s been talked about as “or”.

    Either way, in practice, it probably doesn’t matter. If you’re on the roster for 30 days you’ve probably played at least 10 games and vice versa for most situations.

    As a software developer (geez, there’s a bunch of us here), this makes perfect sense to me.

    They can be loaned out if they’ve cleared waivers and have NOT played in 10 games and have NOT been on the roster for 30 days. As soon as one or the other is no longer true (i.e. they have played 10 games or they’ve been on the roster for 30 days), they need to clear waivers again.

  29. wheatnoil says:

    Thorin: As a software developer (geez, there’s a bunch of us here), this makes perfect sense to me.

    They can be loaned out if they’ve cleared waivers and have NOT played in 10 games and have NOT been on the roster for 30 days.As soon as one or the other is no longer true (i.e. they have played 10 games or they’ve been on the roster for 30 days), they need to clear waivers again.

    Ah! When you put it like that, it makes perfect sense!

    Let’s go with that, then.

  30. Pouzar says:

    Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) | Twitter

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers

    38 mins ago – View on Twitter

    Congrats to #Oilers prospect @dylanwells30, selected for @OHLHockey’s team for the upcoming @CHLHockey Canada-Russia Series!

  31. Bruce McCurdy says:

    re: the “missing” assists of Lucic (1) and Nurse (2), all were on empty net goals. Clearly hockeyanalysis.com does not include those under 5v5, even as other sites do. Kind of a grey area. Even strength in the sense of 6v6 but not in # of skaters.

    Similarly Eberle, Draisaitl and McDavid each have a (empty-net) goal that is excluded by HA, but since they have scored other goals it isn’t quite so obvious as those big zeroes under Nurse & Lucic’s assists numbers.

  32. Bruce Wayne says:

    Talbot’s save percentage is .919
    League average is .904

    The Oilers are getting great goaltending.

    Oilers shooting percentage: 13.3%
    League Average: 10.2%

    The Oilers are shooting the lights out.

    I do think Talbot is a good goaltender, and I also think that McDavid moves the needle, so some of this is sustainable. However, the question is what we should infer from its sustainability? Specifically, we should be wary of, attributing McDavid’s excellence to the passing quality of the defense, or Talbot’s excellence, to the defense having magical shot quality suppression abilities.

    The danger of success is that we can easily misunderstand the sources of that success and thereby take courses that undermine the continuation of that success. This is compounded by the way in which the developing narrative directs our observations. Most people see what they expect to see (see every thread on Adam Larsson).

    In this regard there is a discrepancy between the HDSC numbers and Gmoney’s danger adjusted Fenwick. They both go in the same direction but the HDSC numbers make the distinction with shots more startk. The narrative that is drawn is going to dependent a great deal upon which metric you trust (hint: it is danger adjusted Fenwick).

  33. rickithebear says:

    TMac in in one of his press conference stated he liked the fact Letestu and Lander understood their roles.
    Even Defensive zone draws and PK.
    Liked they were willing to accept the minutes required of them!

    in the last 5 games:
    They have defended 20 PP opportunities and given up 2 G all in the Buffalo game.
    0GA when pking with Sekera; Russell; Nurse; Larsson in pairs.

    in those 5 games they average.
    Letestu
    7:56 EVTOI
    3:59 PKTOI

    Lander
    7:15 EVTOI
    3:49 PKTOI
    our top 3 PK Dmen average 2:59

    These guys are here to anchor or PK.
    Defend our Zone .
    Let the other forwards get easier ZS.

    all for 2.788 Million

  34. Confused says:

    http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nhl/3715/josh-leivo

    Josh Leivo (lower body) practiced fully on Monday with his teammates.

    6 days and counting to the end of our favorable waiver position — come on Toronto put him on waivers!

    Anyone know anyway that Toronto can avoid it at this point?

  35. rickithebear says:

    Jfry:

    U20 WJC:
    U18 MVP’s
    Gretzky
    Bure
    puljujarvi

    top U17 ligga PPG season of all time.
    top 3 U18 Ligga PPG Playoffs of all time. Ahead of Laine.
    top 5 U18 Ligga PPG season of all time

    based on amateur Jan cut-off.
    Tkachuk dec is playing his 19 yr season.
    Puljujarvimay is playing his 18 Yr season.

    We will talk in a year when we can compare 19 year seasons.

  36. Confused says:

    Also if Chris Kreider returns quickly, will NYR waive Dylan McIlrath?

    If so, we should grab him.

  37. frjohnk says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Talbot’s save percentage is .919
    League average is .904

    The Oilers are getting great goaltending.

    Oilers shooting percentage: 13.3%
    League Average: 10.2%

    The Oilers are shooting the lights out.

    I do think Talbot is a good goaltender, and I also think that McDavid moves the needle, so some of this is sustainable.However, the question is what we should infer from its sustainability? Specifically, we should be wary of, attributing McDavid’s excellence to the passing quality of the defense, or Talbot’s excellence, to the defense having magical shot quality suppression abilities.

    The danger of success is that we can easily misunderstand the sources of that success and thereby take courses that undermine the continuation of that success.This is compounded by the way in which the developing narrative directs our observations.Most people see what they expect to see (see every thread on Adam Larsson).

    In this regard there is a discrepancy between the HDSC numbers and Gmoney’s danger adjusted Fenwick.They both go in the same direction but the HDSC numbers make the distinction with shots more startk.The narrative that is drawn is going to dependent a great deal upon which metric you trust (hint: it is danger adjusted Fenwick).

    While we are outchancing teams in regards to scoring chances and high danger chances, those numbers are a bit misleading as every chance does not actually become a shot on net.

    If we look at shots on net, we get

    Oilers all scores and situations

    From the medium danger area
    Shots for 48
    Shots against 81

    From the high danger area
    Shots for 64
    Shots against 50

    Now I dont have up todate numbers for this year. Last year, the shooting percentage for these to areas was
    medium danger ~8%
    high danger~17%

    This year those numbers are higher, but Im not sure by how much. Im guessing something like 9% and 19%. But for the calculation below I’ll use 8% and 17%.

    So if we look at expected goals

    From the medium danger area
    Expected goals for 3.84
    Expected goals against 6.48

    From the high danger area
    Expected goals for 10.56
    Expected goals against 8.25

    If we add those together along with perimeter shots expected goals we get.
    Expected goals for 16.37
    Expected goals against 17.04

    Now if we go to corisca and look at Oilers expected goals for and expected goals against we
    XGF 17.55
    XGA 18.62

    If I used this years %’s, I bet my numbers would be very close to Corsica’s. So Im not too crazy.

    Actual
    XGF is 23
    XGA is 16.

    Our expected PDO when looking at shots for and against is 100.7
    Our actual PDO is 105.25

    Our shooting % is 13.29% which is 1st in the league.
    Our save % is .919 which is 7th in the league.

    So our shooting % from the various locations is not sustainable, even though we are doing OK in creating chances. We are cashing in on way more that is even close to average over the long term.

    I do believe the goaltending is sustainable though.

  38. Jethro Tull says:

    Offside:
    T

    Milk and two sugars.

  39. GMB3 says:

    IMO Slepyshev probably deserves the icetime that JP is receiving On LD’s line. Send JP down, if we need more depth at right wing bring in a proven NHLer through a trade. Seems to be a reasonable solution.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Confused:
    Also if Chris Kreider returns quickly, will NYR waive Dylan McIlrath?

    If so, we should grab him.

    He would slot behind Reinhart in both ability and skating.

  41. pocession charge says:

    jfry:
    This is exactly the type of o that we should have expected based on nhle from pj. I know a lot of people wanted to look at the tournament’s of small sample size and declare him an offensive force but the larger sample size against men suggested a large body with offensive question marks that some of us were concerned about having drafted in a very similar fashion as our Swedish friend Magnus.

    We value offense here and pj doesn’t have a consistent track record of providing it (Matt tkachuk did, but we focused on his skating and line mates and gave him very little credit as a gifted scorer).

    Pj should not be in the show at this point, and I’m not sure why were lamenting his lack of offense when it was predictable. Nhle 13.

    That isn’t an nhl ready number, and his game visually tells the same story. My .02

    What was Patrik Laine’s NHLe?

  42. classict says:

    pocession charge,

    17 also not very high. Might be a product of the conversion for SM-Liiga being a little low and them getting less ice time than they would in a Junior league.

    That being said its ~30% higher that Puljujarvi’s

  43. Confused says:

    Woodguy,

    Could he come in a be #7 and let Benning go down?

    Cannot see a lot of difference between him and Grba

  44. pocession charge says:

    dustrock:
    I wonder what portion of Drai’s stats are from his wingers.That line has done some good work along the boards, but I’m not seeing very dynamic wingers.

    I’m surprised Drai has scored to the extent he has because I saw him more as a playmaker.

    The improvement that the wingers have made in the board work/battles has been tremendous. Once again, this cannot be measured so it has to be taken with a grain of salt, but previous incarnations of the Oilers got owned along the boards and that was such a killer. Never shows up on the stat line but it is so crucial for success. Lucic, Maroon, Pitlick, and JP have done exceptionally well this year. Even Eberle seems to have more fire in his belly battling for the puck. AsiaOil was right!!

  45. pocession charge says:

    classict:
    pocession charge,

    17 also not very high. Might be a product of the conversion for SM-Liiga being a little low and them getting less ice time than they would in a Junior league.

    That being said its ~30% higher that Puljujarvi’s

    I already knew the answer. That was for Jfry’s consideration — sometimes the NHLe isn’t very accurate for top level talent.

  46. Bruce Wayne says:

    pocession charge,

    Why doesn’t boardwork show up in the stats? If you are good at boardwork, you’ll have the puck more, and get more shots, while allowing fewer. Being good at the little things absolutely shows up in the stats.

  47. T0ML says:

    jfry:
    This is exactly the type of o that we should have expected based on nhle from pj. I know a lot of people wanted to look at the tournament’s of small sample size and declare him an offensive force but the larger sample size against men suggested a large body with offensive question marks that some of us were concerned about having drafted in a very similar fashion as our Swedish friend Magnus.

    We value offense here and pj doesn’t have a consistent track record of providing it (Matt tkachuk did, but we focused on his skating and line mates and gave him very little credit as a gifted scorer).

    Pj should not be in the show at this point, and I’m not sure why were lamenting his lack of offense when it was predictable. Nhle 13.

    That isn’t an nhl ready number, and his game visually tells the same story. My .02

    In all fairness to PJ , Up until this point tkachuk has not shown well and has the same point total ….. Just MOAR BIGGAR / GRITTER ….

  48. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    TMac in in one of his press conference stated he liked the fact Letestu and Lander understood their roles.
    Even Defensive zone draws and PK.
    Liked they were willing to accept the minutes required of them!

    in the last 5 games:
    They have defended 20 PP opportunities and given up 2 G all in the Buffalo game.
    0GA when pking with Sekera; Russell; Nurse; Larsson in pairs.

    in those 5 games they average.
    Letestu
    7:56 EVTOI
    3:59 PKTOI

    Lander
    7:15 EVTOI
    3:49 PKTOI
    our top 3 PK Dmen average 2:59

    These guys are here to anchor or PK.
    Defend our Zone .
    Let the other forwards get easier ZS.

    all for 2.788 Million

    My thoughts exactly. There is one thing that I want my 4th liners to do. That is kill penalties and take some defensive zone faceoffs. I don’t want my top players trying to block 100 mph slap shots which are pretty much guaranteed to come on most non Oiler powerplays. Thats the job for the bottom of the roster. The extra 5-10 points a year you may get from a more offensive minded 4th liner isnt worth the even strength time on ice investment. Although Latesttube looks like he got a bit more of the speed he had in Columbus and may put up good 4th liner points anyways

  49. stush18 says:

    Woodguy: He would slot behind Reinhart in both ability and skating.

    Also I don’t know there roster, but you usually waive a forward when a forward comes back.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    I still think whoever switched Paajarvi from a dmen to a winger made that kid a huge disservice. Hes got the agility, speed, passing, and defensive acumen to make for a pretty decent second pairing defensemen

  51. classict says:

    pocession charge,

    Ah gotcha 🙂

    It is weirdly low for both of them though.

    Anyone know any other cases were a top 5ish pick had an NHLe below 20? Linholm, Zibanejad, and Barkov were all over 30 I think. (I’d guess if others exist they’ll likely have been in a European league…)

  52. Chachi says:

    GMB3:
    IMO Slepyshev probably deserves the icetime that JP is receiving On LD’s line. Send JP down, if we need more depth at right wing bring in a proven NHLer through a trade. Seems to be a reasonable solution.

    Deserve’s got nothing to do with it – my apologies, I just love Unforgiven.

  53. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: He would slot behind Reinhart in both ability and skating.

    Sounds like a good replacement for Grossman in Calgary, then.

    Man, that 2010 1st round really threw some scouts for a loop.

    Tarasenko at 16 immediately after Derek Forbort?

  54. RexLibris says:

    leadfarmer:
    I still think whoever switched Paajarvi from a dmen to a winger made that kid a huge disservice.Hes got the agility, speed, passing, and defensive acumen to make for a pretty decent second pairing defensemen

    That was his father, iirc. Looked at his size and speed and thought he’d do well on offense.

    Years ago I wrote an article that looked at Paajarvi as a C based on his defensive acumen, size and skating. But picturing him on the D, with his size and mobility, certainly does inspire the imagination.

  55. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris: Sounds like a good replacement for Grossman in Calgary, then.

    Man, that 2010 1st round really threw some scouts for a loop.

    Tarasenko at 16 immediately after Derek Forbort?

    Did he drop due to “Russian Factor” or was he always slotted in around there. I can’t remember and didn’t follow prospects as closely then as I do now.

  56. rickithebear says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Talbot’s save percentage is .919
    League average is .904

    The Oilers are getting great goaltending.

    Oilers shooting percentage: 13.3%
    League Average: 10.2%

    The Oilers are shooting the lights out.

    I do think Talbot is a good goaltender, and I also think that McDavid moves the needle, so some of this is sustainable.However, the question is what we should infer from its sustainability? Specifically, we should be wary of, attributing McDavid’s excellence to the passing quality of the defense, or Talbot’s excellence, to the defense having magical shot quality suppression abilities.

    The danger of success is that we can easily misunderstand the sources of that success and thereby take courses that undermine the continuation of that success.This is compounded by the way in which the developing narrative directs our observations.Most people see what they expect to see (see every thread on Adam Larsson).

    In this regard there is a discrepancy between the HDSC numbers and Gmoney’s danger adjusted Fenwick.They both go in the same direction but the HDSC numbers make the distinction with shots more startk.The narrative that is drawn is going to dependent a great deal upon which metric you trust (hint: it is danger adjusted Fenwick).

    last 3 years.
    Talbot #2 HSCA save %
    just behind price.
    having an almost equal version of price stopping Above league average shots.
    he is continuing to show the same trend for his fourth season.

    Last 3 year Shooting % only full seasons.
    League rank

    3. Mcdavid 16.16%
    9. Draisatl 14.14%
    10. Kassian 14.12%
    17. Lucic 13.77%
    26. Pouliot 12.86%
    29. Eberle 12.69
    ——————————- top 30 (#1 forward0
    93. Pitlick 11.11%; 15.56% with any 13-14 to 15-16 forwards 20+ EVTOI
    95. RNH 11.08%; 12.54% in healthy seasons.
    117. Maroon 10.47%
    —————————— 91- 120 (#4 forward)

    220. Letestu 8.40%

  57. RexLibris says:

    Confused:
    Woodguy,

    Could he come in a be #7 and let Benning go down?

    Cannot see a lot of difference between him and Grba

    I think the difference between McIlrath and Gryba at this stage is proven ability and experience.

    McIlrath doesn’t look to me like the kind of reclamation project this roster can afford to invest in.

  58. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Pouzar:
    Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) | Twitter

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers

    38 mins ago – View on Twitter

    Congrats to #Oilers prospect @dylanwells30, selected for @OHLHockey’s team for the upcoming @CHLHockey Canada-Russia Series!

    I didn’t understand the pick at the time, it could be called a 100% “scouting based” pick in that there was no math to support it.

    Seems to be working out (early days, obviously).

  59. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: Did he drop due to “Russian Factor” or was he always slotted in around there. I can’t remember and didn’t follow prospects as closely then as I do now.

    Iirc, there was some KHL flight risk and lack of eyes on him that made him drop. Word at the time was the Blues were over the moon to have him fall to them.

    That enthusiasm appears to be justified.

  60. Bruce McCurdy says:

    rickithebear:
    TMac in in one of his press conference stated he liked the fact Letestu and Lander understood their roles.
    Even Defensive zone draws and PK.
    Liked they were willing to accept the minutes required of them!

    in the last 5 games:
    They have defended 20 PP opportunities and given up 2 G all in the Buffalo game.
    0GA when pking with Sekera; Russell; Nurse; Larsson in pairs.

    in those 5 games they average.
    Letestu
    7:56 EVTOI
    3:59 PKTOI

    Lander
    7:15 EVTOI
    3:49 PKTOI
    our top 3 PK Dmen average 2:59

    These guys are here to anchor or PK.
    Defend our Zone .
    Let the other forwards get easier ZS.

    all for 2.788 Million

    Excellent post, Ricki, I was just looking at that stuff this morning as I finally climb back into the saddle to write for CoH again. (Been moving house this last while.)

    Lander-Letestu duo has been delivering the goods on the PK, esp. Letestu who helped secure both of Edmonton’s road wins with a shorthanded, unassisted, breakaway, game-winning goal in both Calgary and Winnipeg. He can keep those coming all season long AFAIC. 🙂

    On the blueline I’ve noticed that McLellan is using all six guys fairly equally. In one recent game every single defender played 2:xx SHTOI. But up front it is 55-51 who are being leaned upon as a clear #1 unit. Between them they have taken 41 of the 61 shorthanded faceoffs, this despite the fact only one of them can take a given draw even as both of them are typically on the ice together.

    2/3 of the faceoffs doesn’t equate to 2/3 of the ice time, mind. Obviously they are preferentially deployed for own-zone draws including, most often, the one at the beginning of the kill. But with SHTOI of 3:44 and 3:37 (55 & 51 respectively) they have been on the ice for >half of Edmonton’s 6:48 shorthanded time per game.

  61. rickithebear says:

    we got 13 EVG from our current group of forwards.
    if you take the individual career Sht % of our 13 forwards and multiply them by the last 3 yR SH% for each we end up with 12.3 Expected EVGF

  62. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki you’ve been crushing it the last few days! Along with FRJohn, keep up the excellent work

  63. RexLibris says:

    rickithebear:
    we got 13 EVG from our current group of forwards.
    if you take the individual career Sht % of our 13 forwards and multiply them by the last 3 yR SH% for each we end up with 12.3 Expected EVGF

    Quoting this to emphasize this approach to demonstrating how what looks like a problem may not, in fact, be.

    Nice work, Ricki. Thank you for that.

  64. jm363561 says:

    rickithebear:
    TMac in in one of his press conference stated he liked the fact Letestu and Lander understood their roles.
    Even Defensive zone draws and PK.
    Liked they were willing to accept the minutes required of them!

    in the last 5 games:
    They have defended 20 PP opportunities and given up 2 G all in the Buffalo game.
    0GA when pking with Sekera; Russell; Nurse; Larsson in pairs.

    in those 5 games they average.
    Letestu
    7:56 EVTOI
    3:59 PKTOI

    Lander
    7:15 EVTOI
    3:49 PKTOI
    our top 3 PK Dmen average 2:59

    These guys are here to anchor or PK.
    Defend our Zone .
    Let the other forwards get easier ZS.

    all for 2.788 Million

    The Anton Lander Appreciation Society membership doubles!!

  65. JDï™ says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRhAWHyWe8A&feature=youtu.be

    McLellan’s press availability from today. Some good answers from the coach, although it’s almost impossible to know what the questions were: http://www.cablesextra.com/images/megaphone.jpg

  66. fuzzy muppet says:

    wheatnoil,

    It was the Russian Factor to some extent.

    Most lists had him in the top 10.

    I saw him here in Fargo at the U-18’s in 2009 and he absolutely dominated.

  67. Lowetide says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    pocession charge,

    Why doesn’t boardwork show up in the stats?If you are good at boardwork, you’ll have the puck more, and get more shots, while allowing fewer.Being good at the little things absolutely shows up in the stats.

    It does show up. JPs possession number is an example of it.

  68. Woodguy says:

    Confused:
    Woodguy,

    Could he come in a be #7 and let Benning go down?

    Cannot see a lot of difference between him and Grba

    I don’t see him as a NHLer

  69. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: Sounds like a good replacement for Grossman in Calgary, then.

    Man, that 2010 1st round really threw some scouts for a loop.

    Tarasenko at 16 immediately after Derek Forbort?

    STL ignoring large slow Dmen to take Schwartz and Tarasenko.

    They’ve drafted well for a long time

  70. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: I don’t see him as a NHLer

    Shades of Teubert/Siemens there? Scouts sold on “can’t coach big”.

    His AHL ppg pace is in the Teubert range and the PIM rate is double in a relatively similar range of games played.

  71. Wolfpack says:

    The player I am watching the most closely is Larsson. I think that the west is simply a better conference than the east, and over the last few years we have seen quite a few defencemen move from east to west and take a step back in their game (Fayne). This is by my eye, I don’t have the math to back it up but it has been a scenario that I have seen mentioned here before. Larsson appears to be the goods but we will see if that is sustainable. I for one am cheering like crazy for him – and for Klefbom to stay healthy.

  72. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: STL ignoring large slow Dmen to take Schwartz and Tarasenko.

    They’ve drafted well for a long time

    Since around around the Pietrangelo pick they’ve started to right the ship. But even then, they took a chance on picking Schwartz at 14 and Tarasenko at 16.

    Their draft record the last six years kind of looks like the team’s results: good to very good, but still not great.

  73. Bruce McCurdy says:

    T0ML: In all fairness to PJ , Up until this point tkachuk has not shown well and has the same point total ….. Just MOAR BIGGAR / GRITTER ….

    Actually Puljujarvi is MOAR BIGGER to the tune of 2 inches and 15 pounds. Won’t argue with GRITTER landing on Tkachuk’s side of the equation, but size does matter in more ways than GRIT (e.g. reach, leverage) & JP has it in spades.

  74. RexLibris says:

    Speaking of the Blues’ drafting…

    Having a look at Ivan Barbashev today.

    Last season he had 28 pts in his first AHL season of 65 games, -14 (for what it’s worth).

  75. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Actually Puljujarvi is MOAR BIGGER to the tune of 2 inches and 15 pounds. Won’t argue with GRITTER landing on Tkachuk’s side of the equation, but size does matter in more ways than GRIT (e.g. reach, leverage) has JP has it in spades.

    He can also skate.

    Tkachuk’s skating may peak in five years to become NHL average. His hands and nastiness will make his career, but I’m always leery of the lifespan of players who have mobility issues.

    Puljujarvi may be a 40pt forward, maybe 60pts, I’m not certain. But he has shown a fundamental awareness of the game and the speed and size with which to affect it positively for his team to accompany his other offensive talents.

  76. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    RexLibris,

    Didn’t you hear? We lost the Perron for Pajaarvi trade because of Barbashev. He’s a sure fire first ballot hall of famer.

  77. pocession charge says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    pocession charge,

    Why doesn’t boardwork show up in the stats?If you are good at boardwork, you’ll have the puck more, and get more shots, while allowing fewer.Being good at the little things absolutely shows up in the stats.

    I suppose this is true. I was thinking of a more direct way to quantify it rather than using Corsi or shots on goal.

  78. John Chambers says:

    RexLibris,

    The comparable I think it’s wise to use for JP is Jakub Voracek.

    Voracek’s was 9-28-38 in his draft +2 season, and was a 50-pt winger in his draft +3. He’s 6’2 215 lbs.

    I think we can look at this guy to supply 2nd line production from the middle of next season onward, and top-line production from his draft +4 onward.

    If the Oilers give him more than 9 games this year I’ll be upset; if they give him more than the threshold that eats a year of his rights, I’ll be enraged.

  79. Bruce McCurdy says:

    RexLibris: Years ago I wrote an article that looked at Paajarvi as a C based on his defensive acumen, size and skating. But picturing him on the D, with his size and mobility, certainly does inspire the imagination.

    I’m with you 100%. Years ago I wrote an article looking at MPS as a D! I got roundly ridiculed for it by some MSM, but I maintain this is a player whose skill set would translate well to any position. Wing might have been the worst choice of the three.

  80. vinotintazo says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    RexLibris,

    Didn’t you hear?We lost the Perron for Pajaarvi trade because of Barbashev.He’s a sure fire first ballot hall of famer.

    I really liked Perron. I love how he lit up the flames few days ago. Too bad our team sucked back then and we traded him.

  81. Bruce McCurdy says:

    pocession charge: I suppose this is true.I was thinking of a more direct way to quantify it rather than using Corsi or shots on goal.

    Yeah, it’s hard to measure. And being a team stat, Corsi gets attributed to various things of which those board battles are just a part. Also subject to the bias of the interpreter — let, say, Chris Kunitz win a(nother) board battle and make a(nother) good pass to a teammate for a shot, and watch his +ve possession numbers get handwaved away to him being Crosby’s linemate. Just saying.

  82. sliderule says:

    Jesse had similar numbers to Laine

    Liga .55 pts/gm vs .65 pts/gm for Laine
    Playoffs .9 pts /gm vs .83 pts /gm
    Wjc 20 2.3 pts /gm vs 1.86

    Jesse had a more impressive rookie league debut in Kelowna than Laine.

    Jets are spoon feeding power play time to Laine with he being the central trigger man while oilers so far are mostly treating Jesse like the rookie he is.

    I don’t know whether Jesse is going to stay up but he has shown battle and the ability to make plays.

    Those that say that it’s only play in small tournament size are ignoring his comparative numbers to Laine and Mathews in the same tournaments and the fact he suffered an injury after wjc that limited his play to the point he had surgery.

  83. russ99 says:

    vinotintazo: I really liked Perron. I love how he lit up the flames few days ago. Too bad our team sucked back then and we traded him.

    Yeah, me too.

    But at this point in his career, I’d prefer both Lucic and Maroon over him.

  84. Bruce Wayne says:

    The problem with counting board battles won, or any other micro-stat, is not the problem of measurement or subjectivity or something like that (though those are problems too) but that it is an epistemic dead-end.

    Even if you had a perfect count of % of board battles won, what would that tell you? It would tell you that Matt Hendricks, say, was better at board battles than Jordan Eberle (for instance). But so what, that information is irrelevant unless you also know what those board battles are worth. But we do know, in a general sense, what those board battles are worth. They are worth shots. And we do have a measurement of shots already, hence drilling down to the micro-level doesn’t tell you anything you don’t already know. Paying attention to the little things in this way is double counting.

    This is why all this new data that is going to come out of the NHL data tracking won’t ever amount to much. Instead, analytical progress has to come within the realm of existing shot metrics by refining them in two directions.

    First, dangerous Fenwick quantifies the qualitative difference in shots. This is a refinement of existing metrics, and isn’t going to get much better.

    Second, isolating the effect of the individual on shot metrics. Significant progress can be made here, through various attempts to isolate variables, more sophisticated WOWY analysis and quality of competition measures, and on that basis assign relative credit to the baseline measure of dangerous Fenwick.

  85. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yeah, it’s hard to measure. And being a team stat, Corsi gets attributed to various things of which those board battles are just a part. Also subject to the bias of the interpreter — let, say, Chris Kunitz win a(nother) board battle and make a(nother) good pass to a teammate for a shot, and watch his +ve possession numbers get handwaved away to him being Crosby’s linemate. Just saying.

    I thought about measuring board battles, but that is a toughly subjective one. It’s also a team stat with usually more than one player involved in winning the battle. Plus, do only track true 50/50 battles? How do you determine exactly when a 50/50 battle is. There are components of D-zone play that I’m not capturing, and I’ll never capture it all, but so far I haven’t figured out how to track board battles in a reasonably objective way.

    I mean, all the stats that I’m manually tracking are variably subjective. There’s a lot of 50/50 plays that I have to make a call on in order to categorize one way or the other. I do my best to be consistent, but the difference in specific rules changes how these things are counted. For this reason, I’m curious to see how my numbers match up (over a larger sample size) with Corey Sznajder. I’m hoping they’re fairly similar, though he has slightly different definitions than I do.

  86. Aron_S says:

    *Sour grapes alert* And then we managed to turn Perron into a 16th overall and Klinkhammer.

    That 16th overall looked like an amazing return until… well, you know.

    *sigh*

  87. admiralmark says:

    leadfarmer:
    I still think whoever switched Paajarvi from a dmen to a winger made that kid a huge disservice.Hes got the agility, speed, passing, and defensive acumen to make for a pretty decent second pairing defensemen

    Hmmm I wonder what team could use a good Right Shot D man??

  88. JDï™ says:

    admiralmark: Hmmm I wonder what team could use a good Right Shot D man??

    I think getting Paajarvi to switch his shooting hand is asking a bit much.

  89. frjohnk says:

    Aron_S:
    *Sour grapes alert* And then we managed to turn Perron into a 16th overall and Klinkhammer.

    That 16th overall looked like an amazing return until… well, you know.

    *sigh*

    If you actually back that trade up, we ended up with Reinhart and McLellan. Im a fan of McLellan, so now the return looks better.

  90. Lowetide says:

    I was out for much of today, enjoyed reading this thread. Thanks, folks.

  91. flea says:

    wheatnoil: I thought about measuring board battles, but that is a toughly subjective one. It’s also a team stat with usually more than one player involved in winning the battle. Plus, do only track true 50/50 battles? How do you determine exactly when a 50/50 battle is. There are components of D-zone play that I’m not capturing, and I’ll never capture it all, but so far I haven’t figured out how to track board battles in a reasonably objective way.

    I mean, all the stats that I’m manually tracking are variably subjective. There’s a lot of 50/50 plays that I have to make a call on in order to categorize one way or the other. I do my best to be consistent, but the difference in specific rules changes how these things are counted. For this reason, I’m curious to see how my numbers match up (over a larger sample size) with Corey Sznajder. I’m hoping they’re fairly similar, though he has slightly different definitions than I do.

    When the NHL start tracking the players movements on the ice (similiar to the World Cup) maybe they could start looking when two (or more) players are within a certain proximity of the puck at the same time, it would qualify as a contested puck. The data should be able to see who goes in with the puck and who comes out with it.

    I’ve often thought there should be a stat like this, but it would be really difficult to track without some kind of technology on the players.

  92. admiralmark says:

    JDï™: I think getting Paajarvi to switch his shooting hand is asking a bit much.

    He’s right handed and shoots right.. unless i’m mistaken?

  93. Lowetide says:

    admiralmark: He’s right handed and shoots right.. unless i’m mistaken?

    Puljujarvi shoots right, Paajarvi shoots left. Edmonton plans on drafting Puljarvoovi next season, and he shoots equally well either side.

  94. pocession charge says:

    sliderule:

    Jesse had a more impressive rookie league debut in Kelowna than Laine.

    Laine was invisible at that tournament.

  95. admiralmark says:

    Lowetide: Puljujarvi shoots right, Paajarvi shoots left. Edmonton plans on drafting Puljarvoovi next season, and he shoots equally well either side.

    LOL… thjanks. I was getting my consonants mixed up.

  96. böök¡je says:

    Regardless of whether ‘Magnificent Bastard’ was accurate, it was a hell of a good nickname and we are damn short on those these days!

  97. jfry says:

    i get that you want to talk about a year from now…which is great. i’m talking about now.
    right now, he’s not an NHL player and we’re asking him to learn on the job at an extreme cost to the cap, and putting a year of his “owned” status in danger.

    for me the debate isn’t really about us fantasizing what he’ll be but in the here and now. versteeg would have been a better cap, trade, and development option for us.

    rickithebear:
    Jfry:

    U20 WJC:
    U18 MVP’s
    Gretzky
    Bure
    puljujarvi

    top U17 ligga PPG season of all time.
    top 3 U18 Ligga PPG Playoffs of all time. Ahead of Laine.
    top 5 U18 Ligga PPG season of all time

    based on amateur Jan cut-off.
    Tkachuk dec is playing his 19 yr season.
    Puljujarvimay is playing his 18 Yr season.

    We will talk in a year when we can compare 19 year seasons.

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