RAINBOW RISING

The Edmonton Oilers defeated the ghost of the Vancouver Canucks last night, and the truth is that the win was a lot tougher than it should have been. Part of it was Ryan Miller—the Oilers had all kinds of chances and it could have been 5-0—but Edmonton had some wobble that didn’t cost them last night. Remember that old line about winning games you should be losing right at the end of a good streak? Yeah. I think that is what we are seeing now. Sunday should be interesting.

CATCH THE RAINBOW, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 3-5-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-1-0, goal differential +12

Edmonton is stretching out the goal differential now, we have talked about shooting percentage, save percentage and PDO and those things will regress to the meat at some point in time. What is this team’s real ability? The answer lies in another question: Is Connor McDavid on the ice? High-Danger Scoring Chances last night were 9-7 Oilers.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

defense-last-night

  • Nurse—Gryba had a fine night, I saw several giving the veteran the lion’s share of the credit but young Nurse had a fine game, too. I am thinking of his clearing of a goal mouth puck during the heart of the game. Both men were rugged along the wall and battled well. They were up against the Granlund—Sutter—Hansen line most often according to NaturalStatTrick.
  • I have mentioned previously that Nurse appears to be taking forward steps, the game seems to be slowing down for him. Last night, on an evening where the Oilers were not especially sharp offensively as a group, I thought he battled through it and made good choices. He is close to 50 percent in Corsi (ranks No. 2 on the team) and has a very good Rel at this time. Now, he is not playing the Klefbom or Sekera minutes, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves. That said, progress is being made.
  • Klefbom—Larsson had a strong night again to my eye, both men passing with aplomb (and each getting an assist). I think this pairing really sets up the rest of the defense, and their TOI last night shows how much Todd McLellan thinks of them. Played a lot (over eight minutes) against Eriksson and the Piss Cutters, and with the Nuge line. That is a long, tall order and they managed it (with help from Cam Talbot). Well done. Only 74 to go.
  • Russell—Sekera got caved by the Corgis (but were even on high-danger scoring chances) and were under pressure for much of the night. The pairing faced Baertschi—Horvat—Virtanen most often, and were out against the pairing of Edler—Stecher and were playing most often with the Leon line. They should have done better, no? I think so. How much of this was score effects? Well, Edmonton didn’t win the possession battle in the third period (or the first), so I think we can assume this duo has had better days. HD SC were 2-2.

talbot-capture5

  • Cam Talbot was outstanding again, this is becoming a major story in this early run. He made one save that will be on the end of season reel, just a fabulous glove save. His .938 EV save percentage ranks him No. 4 in the NHL among goalies who have appeared in five or more games. He is also No. 4 overall among the same goalie group, sitting at .934.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

forwards-last-night

  • Pouliot—Nuge—Kassian line had a great evening, I mean they were checking all over and making themselves difficult to play against. This is the first night I felt this line might have a 20-game run, that’s how well they played. Pretty excited about the idea of an internal solution. Played a ton with Klefbom—Larsson and played over 11 minutes against the Sedin line. I am so pleased with this line.
  • Maroon—Draisaitl—Puljujarvi had a good night by the numbers and were a bit unlucky on the chances. JP didn’t have much in his jet boots on a breakaway (was he gassed? he cannot be that slow) but rang iron later in the game. Leon had a nifty shot that could have been tapped in but no one was home. LD’s brilliant checking play on what would surely have been a goal was fantastic, very strong play by the big man. Played most against the Horvat line and split time with Sekera—Russell and the third pairing. I liked their game, need a little more speed and finnish.
  • Lucic—McDavid—Eberle scored both goals, had seven shots and made some nice defensive plays. Eberle twice interfered with substantial moments for Vancouver, and Milan Lucic used positioning to upset a sortie. The big man’s pass to send away McDavid for the winning goal was very smooth and reflects his strength as an offensive player. Eberle had a quiet night, but I thought he was effective and worked hard on the back check. I am liking his game more and more.
  • Lander—Letestu—Pitlick are like Borg parts these days, up and down the lineup as required. Lander got an assist by taking the faceoff on the McDavid goal, and Letestu went hither and yawn in pursuit of excellence as well. Letestu played over one minute with Lander (7), Pitlick (6), Leon, Maroon, Nuge, Kassian.

This is a large gap. Over at his site, G also had this to say about the game:

  • The gameflow chart shows a huge divergence between the ‘raw’ and the ‘danger’ curves in the third. That’s where that third period ‘keep it to the outside’ really showed. Not to mention the breakaways for! Source

The Oilers do seem to be playing a wiser game, more like the Finnish national style (everything forced to the outside, from the center line in) and it does seem to fit the roster. I also believe we are seeing the benefit of keeping a veteran coach around for more than one season. Remember the improvement we saw year over year with Renney? Perhaps the current boost is partly because of McLellan having a chance to impact the roster for more than one season. The team is still giving up the same number of shots as one year ago (30.5), but if the distance is less severe, well things may be improving for this team defensively.

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157 Responses to "RAINBOW RISING"

  1. Shafty19 says:

    Honest question here.

    I remember a couple seasons ago, when the Leafs were winning games while being wildly outshot (and with a sky-high PDO), a debate began online about “shot quality.” Those who felt the Leafs gave up a lot of low-quality shots – and took largely high-quality shots themselves – were mostly laughed off. And I joined in.

    Fast forward to this year: I’m reading more and more about how the Oilers are winning the high-quality scoring chance battle while losing the Corsi one.

    I agree that by eye this Oilers team is much better than the Leafs of a couple years ago, but I’m trying to make sense of the numbers. Is there an explanation why this isn’t just the “shot quality” argument all over again?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Shafty19:
    Honest question here.

    I remember a couple seasons ago, when the Leafs were winning games while being wildly outshot (and with a sky-high PDO), a debate began online about “shot quality.” Those who felt the Leafs gave up a lot of low-quality shots – and took largely high-quality shots themselves – were mostly laughed off. And I joined in.

    Fast forward to this year: I’m reading more and more about how the Oilers are winning the high-quality scoring chance battle while losing the Corsi one.

    I agree that by eye this Oilers team is much better than the Leafs of a couple years ago, but I’m trying to make sense of the numbers. Is there an explanation why this isn’t just the “shot quality” argument all over again?

    I think you have framed the question perfectly. For me, I am a Corsi guy (still!), so Edmonton’s 47.3 Corsi for 5×5 percentage has to improve. The Corsi number last year (48.8) was an improvement, and we can hope Edmonton gets back to something near that number before the save percentage and shooting percentage take a dive.

    That is what I believe.

  3. Clay says:

    I’m trying to figure out Russell. Fancies hate him, but by eye, he makes a lot of calm, subtley good plays with the puck in his own end. And for such a small guy, he uses his body really well and can tie up or win board battles against bigger guys.

    Is he the exception that proves the possession rule?

    Living in CGY I heard a lot of divergence between the “saw him good” and “fancies” crowds here over Russell, and now I get it.

  4. DBO says:

    Not going to over Analyze last night. Played on the road against a desperate team that was fired up. They won an ugly game. Haven’t been able to say that for years. They play tough. They play smarter. They have the skill (McDavid) to capitalize. What makes me most excited is that they are young and improving. I still hope they shuffle their lines. And expect Puljujarvi is long term best fit as 2Rw. What’s crazy is this is the year we add that two way RW for the playoff run at the deadline, and a PP QB third pairing.

    Kassian is best as a 4th liner. Gryba best as a 7th dman. Upgrade those two players, adds depth and balance. They are getting the job done right now, and that’s great. But great teams have depth and players like Kassian and Gryba can step in or up when needed. But if we are to compete for playoffs, those two need to be upgraded. Not a rush obviously right now. But that’s the two spots I hope to see upgraded this year.

  5. sliderule says:

    I thought that was JP’s worst game.

    His shift lengths at times get a little long and at the end of same he loses coordination and strength.EG attempted breakaway..

    I wouldn’t be surprised if he sits against Senators.

  6. Water Fire says:

    Shafty19:
    Honest question here.

    I remember a couple seasons ago, when the Leafs were winning games while being wildly outshot (and with a sky-high PDO), a debate began online about “shot quality.” Those who felt the Leafs gave up a lot of low-quality shots – and took largely high-quality shots themselves – were mostly laughed off. And I joined in.

    Fast forward to this year: I’m reading more and more about how the Oilers are winning the high-quality scoring chance battle while losing the Corsi one.

    I agree that by eye this Oilers team is much better than the Leafs of a couple years ago, but I’m trying to make sense of the numbers. Is there an explanation why this isn’t just the “shot quality” argument all over again?

    Shot quality is broad terms, I’m not sure the same stats were available for the Leaf’s run as now. In other words, was the shot quality argument just Carlyle’s narrative, or did the data back it up as it does with the Oilers this year – shooting more from HDSC areas than opponents, closer to the net?

    I don’t recall mention of shot distance etc for them. I also know they didn’t have the same quality of forwards which matters to finishing.

    Still McLellan and Chiarelli have both mentioned correcting the shot shares. Eventually it will catch up with them as PDO regresses as LT said. Good teams don’t consistently get outshot. I don’t think many here are saying that what is happening is a good strategy for long term success.

    It’s just that PDO and shot quality as expressed by where they shoot from explain why they are winning despite losing the shot battle. To me the improvement in the shot quality differential is a result of the system they play which with time they are starting to execute better.

    Also, if Talbot wasn’t hot they might have lost a few more games for getting outshout, despite the HDSCF advantage. It’s a big ball of yarn.

  7. Destroyko says:

    “JP didn’t have much in his jet boots on a breakaway (was he gassed? he cannot be that slow)”

    My impression at the time was that it was at the end of a shift, yes.

    Was kind of surprised to hear Ryan Whitney in the intermission say that JP was too slow for the NHL. We know he may not have fond feelings about Edmonton, but that was the first I heard someone say that. To have the slow boots breakaway follow that comment was jarring, but, again, I do think it was at the tail end of a shift.

  8. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    sliderule,

    I’ve read people saying it was among his best. Odd divergence. Fun thing to be at the top of the problems list 10% into the season. Usually we’re already talking draft.

  9. Shafty19 says:

    Water Fire: Shot quality is broad terms, I’m not sure the same stats were available for the Leaf’s run as now. In other words, was the shot quality argument just Carlyle’s narrative, or did the data back it up as it does with the Oilers this year – shooting more from HDSC areas than opponents, closer to the net?

    I don’t recall mention of shot distance etc for them. I also know they didn’t have the same quality of forwards which matters to finishing.

    Still McLellan and Chiarelli have both mentioned correcting the shot shares. Eventually it will catch up with them as PDO regresses as LT said. Good teams don’t consistently get outshot. I don’t think many here are saying that what is happening is a good strategy for long term success.

    It’s just that PDO and shot quality as expressed by where they shoot from explain why they are winning despite losing the shot battle. To me the improvement in the shot quality differential is a result of the system they play which with time they are starting to execute better.

    Also, if Talbot wasn’t hot they might have lost a few more games for getting outshout, despite the HDSCF advantage. It’s a big ball of yarn.

    I agree that a major difference in philosophy is that Leafs team felt they were actually good and believed they were winning games in a repeatable way, while the Oilers acknowledge that the shot metrics are a warning sign and must improve. Hopefully they make some changes to address that.

  10. Shafty19 says:

    DBO:
    Not going to over Analyze last night. Played on the road against a desperate team that was fired up. They won an ugly game. Haven’t been able to say that for years. They play tough. They play smarter. They have the skill (McDavid) to capitalize. What makes me most excited is that they are young and improving. I still hope they shuffle their lines. And expect Puljujarvi is long term best fit as 2Rw. What’s crazy is this is the year we add that two way RW for the playoff run at the deadline, and a PP QB third pairing.

    Kassian is best as a 4th liner. Gryba best as a 7th dman. Upgrade those two players, adds depth and balance. They are getting the job done right now, and that’s great. But great teams have depth and players like Kassian and Gryba can step in or up when needed. But if we are to compete for playoffs, those two need to be upgraded. Not a rush obviously right now. But that’s the two spots I hope to see upgraded this year.

    Caggiula and Davidson might just be the upgrades you’re looking for. We wait.

  11. Bryan says:

    Destroyko:
    “JP didn’t have much in his jet boots on a breakaway (was he gassed? he cannot be that slow)”

    My impression at the time was that it was at the end of a shift, yes.

    Was kind of surprised to hear Ryan Whitney in the intermission say that JP was too slow for the NHL. We know he may not have fond feelings about Edmonton, but that was the first I heard someone say that. To have the slow boots breakaway follow that comment was jarring, but, again, I do think it was at the tail end of a shift.

    He was definitely at the end of a shift that had already been a bit long. I have no concerns at all with his skating. He will grow stronger and faster in the next few years and is going to be a stud who plays a 200 ft game. It was a gift from the hockey gods that he fell to the Oilers.

  12. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Water Fire: Shot quality is broad terms, I’m not sure the same stats were available for the Leaf’s run as now. In other words, was the shot quality argument just Carlyle’s narrative, or did the data back it up as it does with the Oilers this year – shooting more from HDSC areas than opponents, closer to the net?

    I don’t recall mention of shot distance etc for them. I also know they didn’t have the same quality of forwards which matters to finishing.

    Still McLellan and Chiarelli have both mentioned correcting the shot shares. Eventually it will catch up with them as PDO regresses as LT said. Good teams don’t consistently get outshot. I don’t think many here are saying that what is happening is a good strategy for long term success.

    It’s just that PDO and shot quality as expressed by where they shoot from explain why they are winning despite losing the shot battle. To me the improvement in the shot quality differential is a result of the system they play which with time they are starting to execute better.

    Also, if Talbot wasn’t hot they might have lost a few more games for getting outshout, despite the HDSCF advantage. It’s a big ball of yarn.

    The good thing is that if Talbot wasn’t hot we’d be worse off, but that could mean we’re 4-3-1. At least we’re not riding the PDO dragon to the island of mediocrity.

    That’s a 92 point pace

  13. dustrock says:

    Eberle is a changed player defensively. Don’t know if it’s McDavid and Looch but he is not having any shifts off right now.

    Klefbom is outstanding, and I wonder if he’s been given permission to turn on the jets because his D partner is a rock.

  14. theres oil in virginia says:

    Shafty19,

    I don’t think anyone’s claiming this team is a finished product.

  15. Bryan says:

    dustrock:
    Eberle is a changed player defensively. Don’t know if it’s McDavid and Looch but he is not having any shifts off right now.

    Klefbom is outstanding, and I wonder if he’s been given permission to turn on the jets because his D partner is a rock.

    Getting that look from Lucic when he doesn’t give one hundred percent probably has more effect on Eberle than when Hall would do it.

  16. John Chambers says:

    Shafty19,

    We’ve seen a lot of Oiler hockey where the other team cycled in the Oiler zone for what seemed like minutes, and Corsi % in the low 40’s made sense.

    I think our defensive system is forcing a lot of low percentage shots. Wingers are keeping the attackers to the outside, and our centres think and play defense-first.

    The Oilers aren’t an elite team. If we were we’d have hemmed the Canucks in their own zone and owned a 60% Corsi for the evening. But we are a playoff team where our scoring power and defensive system will emphasize our strengths.

    This team is going to win games, but it won’t always look pretty. In fact, I expect us to have quite a few “Buffalo” games this year.

  17. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    This shot distance tng seems to fit what I am “seeing” as a fan observer not a stat compiler.

    There were lots of times where Van had pressure and the Oilers were a bit bottled but it seemed to me that most of the pressure was kept away and to the outside. Not ALL mind you of course.

    There just seemed to be more of a sense that “ok sure you guys go ahead and run around here but we’ll just take that puck and you can go sit down on the bench” and finally we have had performance from a goalie who doesn’t make me feel all queasy when the opposing team crosses the blue line.

    Clearly not a scientific assessment but one that fits the flow. This team isn’t a total package but my oh my is it ever more fun to watch than the last 10 years of dreck!

    It also seems to me that there are a lot fewer “trailing man left wide open” situations. The notable exception of course the missed defensive coverage by Lucic leading to the glorious wide open Gaunce shot. But there we had that solid goaltending.

    For once we are seeing things go our way a bit. Of course it can’t last a season but this is truly an improved looking team.

    Edit: What John Chambers just said! 😀

  18. tarvbc says:

    How much longer is Hendricks out for?? Do the Oil send down Slepy and sit Lander in the pressbox or Hendricks sits when he is healthy? I like the idea of Kassian playing top 9 and Pitlick playing 4th line so far.

  19. thebiggestmanintheworld says:

    The opposing team comes down the left wing and the play dies.

    Adam Larsson is a fantastic defenceman, and I have zero regrets about “the trade”.

    I cannot wait to see the Oil and Devils play, both of those guys are going to be fired up big time…

    Cam Talbot=real deal. There is the compass for the turn north.

    You can see this is a different team.

    Just wait for the numbers to catch up (McDavid really is that fast!)

  20. Ducey says:

    I am impressed with the Oilers commitment to defense and their short passing game. They had few instances of blindly firing it up the wall, but most of the time they are making deft plays and not panicking.

    We cannot overestimate the impact of having Klefbom – Larsson as a top pair. It allows all the other D to play in their proper place.

    And as much as Talbot is playing well, he is not getting shelled the way previous tenders have here in recent years. Poor Dubnyk was getting two breakaways, three back door tap ins and half a dozen odd man rushes a game.

    Oh, and I forgot the back checking. It has been very evident.

  21. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Chicago’S PK is a nightmare.

    Hendrix might be able to help with that….

  22. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    tarvbc:
    How much longer is Hendricks out for??Do the Oil send down Slepy and sit Lander in the pressbox or Hendricks sits when he is healthy?I like the idea of Kassian playing top 9 and Pitlick playing 4th line so far.

    As a follow up to this, where is there information about any of the Injuries? Davidson, Fayne, Caggiula…

    Who have I forgotten?

  23. doritogrande says:

    Apologies if it was touched on in yesterday’s game day thread, but did Reinhart get HS’d in the Condors game last night?

    Also, man did Platzer and co. get pumped.

  24. Bruce Wayne says:

    I would hazard a guess that the difference between shots and high danger chances can be largely, or even entirely, explained by breakaways.

    Empirically, the way to investigate this is not to express them in terms of percentages, but to break them into chances for and against.

    So league wide there is going to be a linear relationship between shots and chances. Right now the Oilers appear to be deviating from this linear relationship. So the first step is to find out if they are deviating from this relationship on both sides of the puck.

    Doing this would also provide an explanation of score effects (i.e. score effects effect shots more than chances because teams that go into a shell get less shots, but more odd man breaks).

  25. Fog of Warts says:

    The Oilers do seem to be playing a wiser game, more like the Finnish national style (everything forced to the outside, from the center line in)

    … when a team is built around daring-do off the rush (and, equally often, dismantled by daring–doo doo) with not enough burl for boardwork, the coach will look long and hard and fail to locate the wisdom of that game plan.

    Previous depth chart at center:

    Elite featherweight (albeit a feather wrapped in heavyish gold foil—the kind rolled twice more after medium rare)
    Crossed fingers (times six—thumbs count, big toes not so much)
    Oh, god
    Mr Freeze

    Surround with a couple of gems (size: mostly adequate) and a cast of tweener coke machines (fill nozzle less predictable than the morning after a month on the road), backstop the enterprise with the Marx sextuplets (one respectable, two notable, and three more big, bland, slow of mind, and comedically interchangeable), sprinkle with rookie dust, and then see how she rolls (mean time to goalie PTSD = one California road trip).

    Old game plan: scatter pucks into open ice (sticks and legs of the swarm, had it worked), win puck battle with superior wheels & edges & hand skills, fast transition (that first long pass is a real doozy), river-pushing forward charge, last man back completes the odd-man rush (pin-pulled no-look between-the-legs drop pass guaranteed, or your monkey back).

    Perhaps I exaggerate, though I’m not sure.

  26. debacles says:

    Was at the game last night, along with every other Oilers fan in BC, it seemed. Handful of Canucks fans amongst the empty seats.

    LT’s comments the game are spot-on with what I saw. I was impressed with Nurse and Eberle – both playing hard, effective games, particularly on defence. Eberle was backchecking hard, Nurse was making calm, smart decisions. Couple times I noticed Nurse back off and play smart positional defence at times that, in the recent past, he would have pinched and likely given up a sortie the other way. Much calmer in his own end as well.

    To my eye, JP was, and will be, fine. I think he was gassed at the end of a shift on the breakaway. Most of the night, i noticed him for being on the right side of the puck.

    Would have loved to see a blowout win, but it was refreshing to watch them grind out a win they might easily have lost in recent years. To be honest, the scoreboard was closer than the game felt to me. Even at 0-0 and 1-0, it never felt like they were at much risk of losing – I guess that’s the benefit of a competent blue line, and above-average goaltending. Such a refreshing change!

  27. Oilspill says:

    I guess solid D play and specialty teams aren’t in your repetoire òf necessary skills. This team is better because of the toughness they impart. You want to get softer? We start losing.

    DBO:
    Not going to over Analyze last night. Played on the road against a desperate team that was fired up. They won an ugly game. Haven’t been able to say that for years. They play tough. They play smarter. They have the skill (McDavid) to capitalize. What makes me most excited is that they are young and improving. I still hope they shuffle their lines. And expect Puljujarvi is long term best fit as 2Rw. What’s crazy is this is the year we add that two way RW for the playoff run at the deadline, and a PP QB third pairing.

    Kassian is best as a 4th liner. Gryba best as a 7th dman. Upgrade those two players, adds depth and balance. They are getting the job done right now, and that’s great. But great teams have depth and players like Kassian and Gryba can step in or up when needed. But if we are to compete for playoffs, those two need to be upgraded. Not a rush obviously right now. But that’s the two spots I hope to see upgraded this year.

  28. stephen sheps says:

    Spam alert!

    I wrote a thing yesterday. As a result of that thing I’ve been asked to become a contributor to the Oilers Rig, joining other luminaries from around here like Jonrmcleod, Rex, Wheat and Supernova. I’m not nearly as good as they are but I’m pretty stoked to join their team.
    Anyhoo, here’s the thing I wrote.
    http://bringingbacktheglory.blogspot.ca/2016/10/battle-of-methods-or-how-i-learned-to_28.html?m=1

    End Spam

  29. JK-17 says:

    I really enjoy watching the line Poo-Nuge-Kass line. And how they stack up against the other teams top line. However Kassian is a nice fill in for the time being but it will sure be nice to see Puljujarvi up on that line once he is settled into the speed of the NHL and the size of the ice.

  30. maxwell_mischief says:

    Did we watch a different game?
    while Talbot was forced to make some good saves, I thought the Oilers did an excellent job of shutting down second chance opportunities, and as you highlighted lots of shots from outside.
    to my eye, I thought the Oilers had an excellent game. The biggest mistake probably Lucic leaving the second man of a 2on2 to chase the puck leaving a man wide open- and Talbot was there.
    I’m sure the fancies say that Russell/Sekera had a rough night, but they never once seemed out of control. Sure JP was tired on that breakaway- but still managed to generate an incredible chance with Klef. I thought Puljujarvi played a great game overall, still making some slow reads and bad decisions, but he looked like an NHL player last night, and man is he going to be a player! Larsson seemed to skate miles and constantly make god plays with Vancouver on the attack defensively and with the puck on the breakout. The Nuge line i thought was awesome too!

    I didn’t see the sloppy team that is at the end of their win streak, winning games they should win… Edmonton looked like the better team to my eye last night.

  31. oilerman1000 says:

    I don’t understand what I’m watching these days. The Oilers are finally able to play properly defensively and Seem to take pleasure in it. Did anybody see the OT goal against NJ last night? There was Hall with a weak defensive play to lose it. He’s their best player- what does it say to the rest of the team? weak play is acceptable? Contrast that with the Draisaitl play to preserve the win. Just a different culture now. I was against the hall trade when it went down. Hall is still a great player but accepted weak defensive plays too often and that trickled down to everyone else. The Oilers have bought in to the new system and playing team defence. Proof we are finally turning north.

  32. oilerman1000 says:

    Anyone else see a lot of Hossa In Puljarvavi and a lot of Ovechkin in Laine? Puljarvavi just needs time but sure seems to be a fantastic 200 foot player that can dominate in all three zones.

  33. stephen sheps says:

    oilerman1000,

    I don’t think it’s necessary to rip on Hall in order to justify the Oilers current levels of success. The trade happened, he’s a Devil now, contributing their team as best as he can, and is doing quite well considering how much of the team’s scoring he’s responsible for. He made a bad play but he also had to be out on the ice in that critical moment. But really, that’s apropos of nothing. Hall was not solely responsible for the Oilers failures in the past. No need to make him into a scapegoat or a straw man.

    The Oilers are winning, but it’s an almost entirely new team compared to the roster 8 games into last season. The past can inform our collective unease about the sustainability of the present but it is also something to let go of as we look forward to what this version of the team can do long term.

  34. supernova says:

    Spam Alert

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    We know the Oilers have to beat the ones in front of them.
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    I hope you join me on the journey, if their is something you would like looked at in the Division hit me up.

    I am often on twitter @SuperNovs1

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  35. JJS says:

    One other aspect to consider regarding shot quality/distance is we don’t have a PP quarterback taking 55 footers bombs for 6-8 mins a game. Rather we work the puck down low and orchestrate the 15 foot high slot attempt.

    And even 5×5, our defensemen tend to purposefully aim end boards looking for a tip/nice bounce versus hitting the net.

  36. supernova says:

    stephen sheps:
    Spam alert!

    I wrote a thing yesterday. As a result of that thing I’ve been asked to become a contributor to the Oilers Rig, joining other luminaries from around here like Jonrmcleod, Rex, Wheat and Supernova. I’m not nearly as good as they are but I’m pretty stoked to join their team.
    Anyhoo, here’s the thing I wrote.
    http://bringingbacktheglory.blogspot.ca/2016/10/battle-of-methods-or-how-i-learned-to_28.html?m=1

    End Spam

    stephen sheps,

    This is an awesome post.

    Welcome to The Oilers Rig.

    “Friends of Lowetide’s other place”

  37. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    stephen sheps:
    oilerman1000,

    I don’t think it’s necessary to rip on Hall in order to justify the Oilers current levels of success. The trade happened, he’s a Devil now, contributing their team as best as he can, and is doing quite well considering how much of the team’s scoring he’s responsible for. He made a bad play but he also had to be out on the ice in that critical moment. But really, that’s apropos of nothing. Hall was not solely responsible for the Oilers failures in the past. No need to make him into a scapegoat or a straw man.

    The Oilers are winning, but it’s an almost entirely new team compared to the roster 8 games into last season. The past can inform our collective unease about the sustainability of the present but it is also something to let go of as we look forward to what this version of the team can do long term.

    Here here.

  38. speeds says:

    A goalie in Talbot with a 0.934sv%, and McDavid, help a lot!

  39. Halfwise says:

    A random Saturday thought about Gustavsson…he’s supposed to be good on HD shots against, but meh on lower danger shots against. Yet the Oilers are working hard on forcing the opposition to take lower danger shots, which makes sense.

    But are they coaching themselves into making their questionable backup G even more questionable?

    Man, I love it when this is the kind of thing to dredge up, rather than ‘can Vandermeer really replace Strudwick?’

  40. DawnM says:

    I’m curious about what factoring score effect into the shot stats looks like. Given that we’ve been playing with a lead most of the time, there’s going to be some skew in those numbers.

  41. McSorley33 says:

    Clay,

    Completely agree…..Russell seems to use his stick to negate many plays. He uses that stick to keep/ force players to the outside.

    I am wondering if Russell’s game is not the personification of what we are seeing with the Oilers as a team. Defend the box/ home plate area, give up shots from perimeter.

    As you mention, struck by how calm he can be.

  42. supernova says:

    speeds:
    A goalie in Talbot with a 0.934sv%, and McDavid, help a lot!

    speeds,

    Shhh don’t tell the secret.

    It honestly feels weird to go into games thinking we have a decent chance to win every night due to those two.

  43. stephen sheps says:

    supernova,

    Thanks! I’m really excited to join in the fun. To paraphrase what G said to me yesterday, it feels like the Oilers rig is becoming the logical extension of the Lowetide comments section. When I get back from Charlotte on Monday I’ll write up something to introduce myself over there. In the meantime, beer, BBQ an NBA game and some NFL football are on the horizon.

    Edit: your article is a good one too. That’s a nasty history of ineptitude on display. This hot start is helping to correct a bit of that nasty history. I hope it’s at least somewhat sustainable.

  44. Lowetide says:

    stephen sheps:
    supernova,

    Thanks! I’m really excited to join in the fun. To paraphrase what G said to me yesterday, it feels like the Oilers rig is becoming the logical extension of the Lowetide comments section. When I get back from Charlotte on Monday I’ll write up something to introduce myself over there. In the meantime, beer, BBQ an NBA game and some NFL football are on the horizon.

    Congratulations, Stephen! Great group over there.

  45. oilerman1000 says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    My point wasn’t to rip on all at hall, it was to point out the culture change that is so apparent early on. The team works just as hard in their own end and I don’t think you could say that last year or the year before. Trading Hall and bringing in the players they did sent a message to the team. Either you play the way we want you to or you will be gone. I think that was one of the biggest things out of the Hall trade (I love Hall) and is going to push the team north.

  46. rocket says:

    It is enjoyable right now and let’s all enjoy it. However, remember PDO. Shooting percentage as is cannot last longterm – Connor 25%; Lucic 21%; Eberle 12%; Leon 10%; Pou 30%; Kassian 15%; Letustu 22%

  47. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide,

    It really is! I’m stoked to be a part of it. Thanks!

  48. rocket says:

    speeds:
    A goalie in Talbot with a 0.934sv%, and McDavid, help a lot!

    Really scary…. they both need to keep healthy…

  49. lynn says:

    doritogrande:
    Apologies if it was touched on in yesterday’s game day thread, but did Reinhart get HS’d in the Condors game last night?

    Also, man did Platzer and co. get pumped.

    Griffin Reinhart didn’t play for the Condors last night, not sure of the reason, in a 4 – 0 loss.

    Platzer had a rough night going -3, playing with smurf wingers, Benik and Descheneau.

    Jujhar Khaira missed his second game with an injury after an excellent start to the season.

    Overall, the Condors appear to be a weak team: limited forward talent, and adequate on defense and in goal. I think it’s going to be a long season for that team.

    The Oilers better not run into an injury streak; there are few adequate call-up players on the Condors.

  50. Johnny Larue says:

    debacles:
    Was at the game last night, along with every other Oilers fan in BC, it seemed. Handful of Canucks fans amongst the empty seats.

    LT’s comments the game are spot-on with what I saw. I was impressed with Nurse and Eberle – both playing hard, effective games, particularly on defence. Eberle was backchecking hard, Nurse was making calm, smart decisions. Couple times I noticed Nurse back off and play smart positional defence at times that, in the recent past, he would have pinched and likely given up a sortie the other way. Much calmer in his own end as well.

    To my eye, JP was, and will be, fine. I think he was gassed at the end of a shift on the breakaway. Most of the night, i noticed him for being on the right side of the puck.

    Would have loved to see a blowout win, but it was refreshing to watch them grind out a win they might easily have lost in recent years. To be honest, the scoreboard was closer than the game felt to me. Even at 0-0 and 1-0, it never felt like they were at much risk of losing – I guess that’s the benefit of a competent blue line, and above-average goaltending. Such a refreshing change!

    I Agee I think that the Oilers were in control of the game with the Canucks trapping hard. Ryan Miller was standing on his head and in previous years we would have lost that game.This year the team has some confidence and stuck to their game plan and was able to grind the game out. What makes this year so refreshing is that no matter what type of game is played from run and gun to trap we can play any style and still triumph.I guess it helps to have the best player in the league on our team.

  51. Johnny Larue says:

    speeds:
    A goalie in Talbot with a 0.934sv%, and McDavid, help a lot!

    Another thought does anyone know what Talbots save% is if you take out the Buffalo game. It must be off the charts considering how bad that game was and how it brings down the average. It would be interesting if someone could figure that out please and thank you.

  52. hunter1909 says:

    John Chambers: The Oilers aren’t an elite team.

    Washington and St Louis say hi.

    Elite teams make elite teams look ordinary.

    McDavid makes everyone look stupid.

    At 7-1 and top of the Western Conference, that still makes them elite, despite the early calendar.

  53. Frank the dog says:

    Shafty19:
    Honest question here.

    I remember a couple seasons ago, when the Leafs were winning games while being wildly outshot (and with a sky-high PDO), a debate began online about “shot quality.” Those who felt the Leafs gave up a lot of low-quality shots – and took largely high-quality shots themselves – were mostly laughed off. And I joined in.

    Fast forward to this year: I’m reading more and more about how the Oilers are winning the high-quality scoring chance battle while losing the Corsi one.

    I agree that by eye this Oilers team is much better than the Leafs of a couple years ago, but I’m trying to make sense of the numbers. Is there an explanation why this isn’t just the “shot quality” argument all over again?

    Hats off to Rickithebear on this one for consistently arguing in facour of HQSA.
    I often didn’t understand what he said but no wonder WG and GM took a form of that on as their own.

  54. rocket says:

    LT – you mentioned Klefbom/Larsson had a strong night. HD SC F A 4-4. David Staples quote “There was a bit too much chaos with Klefbom and Larsson on the ice today for my liking, and the pairing was lucky not to get burnt with a goal against.” Agree that we need to see at least 20 games from Larsson, however, in 1st 8 games there are some very strong plays but at the same time some very ‘weak’ plays… We wait…

  55. hunter1909 says:

    I’ll hazard a guess and say Lucic, Larsson, and Russell have each stepped seamlessly into the lineup, and McDavid notwithstanding are all major contributors to team success.

    Watching poor Hall during the OT Chicago goal hardly makes him any more missed. Ditto Yakupov, who’s doing well in St Louis.

    In short: Chiarelli jettisoned a pair of 1st overall picks both who are doing good to great stuff for their new teams; while the Oilers are flying high above the Western Conference.

    Both Chiarelli and Todd McLellan are doing an excellent job.

  56. Lowetide says:

    rocket:
    LT – you mentioned Klefbom/Larsson had a strong night.HD SC F A 4-4. David Staples quote “There was a bit too much chaos with Klefbom and Larsson on the ice today for my liking, and the pairing was lucky not to get burnt with a goal against.”Agree that we need to see at least 20 games from Larsson, however, in 1st 8 games there are some very strong plays but at the same time some very ‘weak’ plays…We wait…

    How many errors did David give the pairing?

  57. rocket says:

    Lowetide,

    5 in total; 4 by Larsson

  58. hunter1909 says:

    I’ve been particularly noticing the bottom six forwards, who are holding their own and more so far this season. The defence seems competent but still unable to carry the puck so you expect management tho be cooking up a blockbuster:

    Like for example Karlsson for one of the current roster players, a 1st round pick, and a large order of Blackberrys.

  59. Frank the dog says:

    I was noticing the look on the faces of the Vancouver players being interviewed during the breaks last night. They looked like troops that had just gone through a red eye barrage – for those familiar with the term.

  60. fifthcartel says:

    You never like to hear about people being injured, but the Oilers will likely face Chris Driedger or Matt O’Connor tomorrow, the Senators 3rd/4th goalies on the dept chart.

  61. Bruce McCurdy says:

    stephen sheps:
    Lowetide,

    It really is! I’m stoked to be a part of it. Thanks!

    Congrats to both you &’the Oilers Rig. Lots of good people there and they just added another.

  62. Lewis Grant says:

    Hats off to Rickithebear on this one for consistently arguing in facour of HQSA.

    David Staples has also consistently done so, while taking plenty of abuse from the Corsi crowd. He’s a rare MSM guy who was willing to learn from the stats crowd, and an even more rare person who was willing to learn without taking any one stat as gospel truth.

  63. The Mook says:

    Love the post name today LT!

    A powerful album, mirroring the Oilers equally powerful start

  64. Oilspill says:

    If we go 5/5 in the next 10 games that would put us at 12/6. Still decent but I don’t think these guys want to only win half.
    It’s comical when McDavid is on the ice. The d have more success because he supports very well and the opposition defence is back hiding behind the iron curtain.

    stephen sheps:
    supernova,

    Thanks! I’m really excited to join in the fun. To paraphrase what G said to me yesterday, it feels like the Oilers rig is becoming the logical extension of the Lowetide comments section. When I get back from Charlotte on Monday I’ll write up something to introduce myself over there. In the meantime, beer, BBQ an NBA game and some NFL football are on the horizon.

    Edit: your article is a good one too. That’s a nasty history of ineptitude on display. This hot start is helping to correct a bit of that nasty history. I hope it’s at least somewhat sustainable.

  65. Woodguy says:

    Re: TOR and CGY PDO fueled seasons compared to the Oilers.

    All numbers below are “score and venue adjusted” This is important as the Oilers have led most of the games for a significant period of time.

    TOR made the playoffs in the shortened 12/13 season with a 46.01% CF.

    CF% 46.01% – 28th
    PDO 1030 – 1st
    SCF% 46.59% – 24th

    So it looks like PDO propelled a poor team into 5th in their conference in a shortened season with a +12 goal diff.

    CGY made the playoffs in 14/15 with a CF% of 44.4%, Their PDO was weird that season as the SV% spiked when they couldn’t score and the SH% spiked when the couldn’t get a save.

    Consequently their PDO wasn’t off the charts like TOR in 12/13 but it was still high

    CF% 44.8% – 28th
    PDO 1015 – 4th
    SCF% 46.97% – 22nd

    So it looks like PDO propelled a meh team into 3rd in the Pacific with a +25 Goal Diff

    This year’s Oilers are:

    CF% 50.33% – 13th in NHL
    PDO 1035 5th in NHL
    SCF% 58.98% – 4th in NHL

    So it looks like PDO is propelling a mid-tier or upper mid-tier team into the 2nd in the NHL and 1st in WC and a +12 goal diff in 8 games. (!!!)

    Fun fact: Oilers are the only Pacific team with a positive goal diff.

    There are only 3 WC teams with a positive goal diff:

    EDM +12
    MIN +9
    CHI +1
    STL 0

  66. Numenius says:

    Destroyko: Was kind of surprised to hear Ryan Whitney in the intermission say that JP was too slow for the NHL.

    Whitney didn’t say JP was too slow, he said his skating needed improving. That could mean stride, edgework, smoothness, etc., not necessarily speed.

    I think I can see what Whitney means. JP has blazing speed, but seems to have a rawness to his skating that needs smoothing.

  67. Lowetide says:

    rocket:
    Lowetide,

    5 in total;4 by Larsson

    Heh. Well, we all have bias and I have mine for sure. I saw Klefbom-Larsson considerably better than 5 errors.

  68. ASkoreyko says:

    Numenius: Whitney didn’t say JP was too slow, he said his skating needed improving. That could mean stride, edgework, smoothness, etc., not necessarily speed.

    I think I can see what Whitney means. JP has blazing speed, but seems to have a rawness to his skating that needs smoothing.

    Thank you for clarifying this as the above comment was bothering me. JP’s speed was seen as a clear + for him over Laine. I know Laine is on fire right now but I think JP will end up being a great complimentary player to McDavid at some point. We all saw how his speed was a clear factor on his assist on the missed 2on1. JP just seems to be slightly ‘off’ most of the time, you can see what he is trying to do and he just has a slight off on the timing. It will come and when it does it will be magnificent. You just watch his highlight package from the worlds and his dynamism is obvious.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    Its always interesting to contrast this build with the Boys on the Bus.

    The ‘Boys’ started with their cornerstone (Gretz obviously), surrounded him with a collection of vet role players early on, and then took it over the top with the maturation of their core skill players.

    This rebuild started with the core skill, but it took the arrival of the cornerstone to spur the additions of the vet role players.

    I would love to be a fly on the wall in the dressing room to see Lucic’s impact. We talked for so long about skill without will. It’s truly surprising how quickly the culture change has occurred.

    After the Hall trade, I really wanted to hate this team. But it’s Pacino in Godfather III all over again.

    Winning. Finally.

  70. JimmyV1965 says:

    stephen sheps:
    oilerman1000,

    I don’t think it’s necessary to rip on Hall in order to justify the Oilers current levels of success. The trade happened, he’s a Devil now, contributing their team as best as he can, and is doing quite well considering how much of the team’s scoring he’s responsible for. He made a bad play but he also had to be out on the ice in that critical moment. But really, that’s apropos of nothing. Hall was not solely responsible for the Oilers failures in the past. No need to make him into a scapegoat or a straw man.

    The Oilers are winning, but it’s an almost entirely new team compared to the roster 8 games into last season. The past can inform our collective unease about the sustainability of the present but it is also something to let go of as we look forward to what this version of the team can do long term.

    Thank you for this reasoned response to the Hall trashing. I usually respond to the Hall haters in anger and that’s never a good thing. I just don’t get why some people hate on Hall.

  71. Moose says:

    Khaira back in for today’s Condor matinee. Reinhart sits again (is he hurt?). Ellis starts.

  72. JimmyV1965 says:

    oilerman1000:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    My point wasn’t to rip on all at hall, it was to point out the culture change that is so apparent early on.The team works just as hard in their own end and I don’t think you could say that last year or the year before.Trading Hall and bringing in the players they did sent a message to the team.Either you play the way we want you to or you will be gone.I think that was one of the biggest things out of the Hall trade (I love Hall) and is going to push the team north.

    Sorry, I just don’t buy the culture thing. We have a much better team, with big guys who have skill and experience. Our line up is simply much better and more experienced than it was last year. Just look at our defence compared to last year. I think the Leafs remind me of Olers past. Lots of great young players but not enuf size and experience. Having said that, their defence might be horrible but it’s still miles better than ours even a year ago.

  73. N64 says:

    Johnny Larue: Another thought does anyone know what Talbots save% is if you take out the Buffalo game. It must be off the charts considering how bad that game was and how it brings down the average. It would be interesting if someone could figure that out please and thank you.

    .934 this year .953 if you exclude the Buffalo game, but hate stats with gaps.

    More impressive is .975 last 5 games or .984 last 4 games.

  74. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: I saw Klefbom-Larsson considerably better than 5 errors.

    Three of those errors were probably just being on the ice against the Pisscutters.

  75. pocession charge says:

    The Oilers are doing so well that DSF is going to start cheering for them.

  76. Moose says:

    On a “things to bitch about when you’re 7-1” note: Why is Matt Banning still here? The kid is a month into his pro career and hasn’t played a game at any level. There are no RHD on the farm, and if he’s not gonna play why not have Fraser or Musil sit in the press box here. I understand if someone were to take a puck in the mouth in a morning skate that you need a 7D on the ready, but at some point the kid needs to play.

  77. Woodguy says:

    I forgot the 13/14 Avalanche with Jack Adams behind the bench.

    CF% 47.69% – 25th
    PDO 1017.5 – 3rd
    SCF% 47.81% – 22nd

    PDO took a lower end team and vaulted them to 2nd in the WC.

  78. Moose says:

    pocession charge:
    The Oilers are doing so well that DSF is going to start cheering for them.

    HA! Winner.

    I was actually reminiscing about the days when he crowed about how 7 point AHL scorer Cole Cassels was going to eat McDavid’s lunch. Good times.

  79. JDï™ says:

    Moose: Why is Matt Banning still here?

    Earlier in the season, McLellan said that they wanted him to stay up for a bit, see what it’s like to be in the bigs (ie: give him a payday or two), and that he would ultimately need to get him into a game soon.

    I suspect he’s waiting for a time he needs to shake up the pairings, or for an injury to get Benning in.

    But yeah, the farm could really use Benning and even Slepy/Puljs as well.

  80. prairieschooner says:

    The trade was VERY painful for BOTH teams.
    Both teams appear to be achieving what they hoped for and maybe a bit more
    Good luck to both players

    p.s.
    I think we may have edged the trade …who knew Larson had an edge to his game?

  81. lynn says:

    Moose:
    Khaira back in for today’s Condor matinee. Reinhart sits again (is he hurt?). Ellis starts.

    It’s interesting to note that the Condors have taken two small players out of today’s lineup (Benik and Descheneau) and that they have added Greg Chase and Joel Rechlicz, each playing his first game of the season.

    It could be a rock ’em sock ’em game.

  82. Woodguy says:

    Tweeted this earlier:

    Talbot Career vs This year
    5v5 SV% .928 vs .937
    4v5 SV% .908 vs. .935

    5v5 LDSV% .977 vs .961
    5v5 MDSV% .938 vs 1.00
    5v5 HDSV% .814 vs .781

    So expect the 4v5 SV% to drop, the HDSV% to creep up and MDSV% to drop a little.

    My guess was .921 overall at the beginning of the year.

  83. delooper says:

    Here is an idea to adjust corsi to avoid one of its worst flaws:

    Separate corsi into two counts. CorsiBehind: the regular corsi count, but **only** count events when the team is tied or behind by one goal. CorsiAhead: the same, but only count events when the game is tied or the team is up by one goal.

    You could also measure CorsiLoser: when the team is behind by two or more goals and CorsiGone: when the team is up by two or more goals.

    I suspect this would pick out some of the largest irregularities in this metric, and these irregularities would tell you much about the problems in the team, and players.

  84. Woodguy says:

    That .908 for Talbot’s 4v5 SV% is the best in the NHL over the last 4 years (min 450 4v5 min to qualify)

    Top 15 4v5 SV% over the last 4 years (450 4v5 min+)

    CAM.TALBOT 90.81
    SEMYON.VARLAMOV 90.34
    BEN.BISHOP 90.33
    CORY.SCHNEIDER 90.28
    JOHN.GIBSON 90.28
    MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 90.28
    JAKE.ALLEN 90.21
    BRIAN.ELLIOTT 89.68
    FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 89.68
    ROBIN.LEHNER 89.68
    CAREY.PRICE 89.57
    EDDIE.LACK 89.46
    SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 89.41

  85. flea says:

    delooper:
    Here is an idea to adjust corsi to avoid one of its worst flaws:

    Separate corsi into two counts.CorsiBehind: the regular corsi count, but **only** count events when the team is tied or behind by one goal.CorsiAhead: the same, but only count events when the game is tied or the team is up by one goal.

    You could also measure CorsiLoser: when the team is behind by two or more goals and CorsiGone: when the team is up by two or more goals.

    I suspect this would pick out some of the largest irregularities in this metric, and these irregularities would tell you much about the problems in the team, and players.

    Correct if I’m worng, but isn’t this score adjusted Corsi?

  86. John Chambers says:

    hunter1909: Washington and St Louis say hi.

    Elite teams make elite teams look ordinary.

    McDavid makes everyone look stupid.

    At 7-1 and top of the Western Conference, that still makes them elite, despite the early calendar.

    13th in CF% when you’ve only played 2 playoff teams out of the first 8. I’m not going to anoint this team as elite just yet.

    They’ve looked as strong as I’ve seen an Oilers team since the cup run. Let’s wait until after the Eastern road trip to determine whether they can hang with the top third of the league.

  87. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    I forgot the 13/14 Avalanche with Jack Adams behind the bench.

    CF% 47.69% –25th
    PDO 1017.5 – 3rd
    SCF% 47.81% – 22nd

    PDO took a lower end team and vaulted them to 2nd in the WC.

    Thanks for this/these.

    Do we have HDSC% for these clubs or just SC%?

  88. Admiral Ackbar says:

    With several ‘anomalies’ that have been apparent around the league the past couple years, I think that corsi-evangelism needs to be questioned.

    Flames 2015, Leafs 2013, Oilers 2016 are examples. Some would like to say that they are the anomaly and not the example. I would like to use it to question the statistical validity of Corsi as a predictor of success. Are we looking at causation? – A high Corsi suggests a higher likelihood of winning a game, week, season, cup. OR are we looking at correlation? Does possession correlate weakly/strongly with success?

    I think a lot of the current statistical values which employ wide-spread reductionism (any attempted shot, regardless of location and danger are an ‘event’, in the case of Corsi) are steps in the right direction but lack scientific strength.

    To all the Corgis and fancy stat lovers. Has anyone studied how any of these stats correlate as predictors of success? Something with P-values and confidence intervals would be the proof you’re looking for. With a powerful P value and narrow CI, the value of your fancy stat would be irrefutable. Until this is done, scientifically, many of these fancy stats (while ingenious) still don’t have powerful evidence to support their use as a predictor of success.

  89. Woodguy says:

    delooper:
    Here is an idea to adjust corsi to avoid one of its worst flaws:

    Separate corsi into two counts.CorsiBehind: the regular corsi count, but **only** count events when the team is tied or behind by one goal.CorsiAhead: the same, but only count events when the game is tied or the team is up by one goal.

    You could also measure CorsiLoser: when the team is behind by two or more goals and CorsiGone: when the team is up by two or more goals.

    I suspect this would pick out some of the largest irregularities in this metric, and these irregularities would tell you much about the problems in the team, and players.

    Most sites let you set the parameters you want to look at.

    Stats.hockeyanalysis.com will spit out stats for all of these situations:

    5v5
    5v5 Home
    5v5 Road
    5v5 Close
    5v5 Close Home
    5v5 Close Road
    5v5 Tied
    5v5 Tied Home
    5v5 Tied Road
    5v5 Leading
    5v5 Leading Home
    5v5 Leading Road
    5v5 Trailing
    5v5 Trailing Home
    5v5 Trailing Road
    5v5 Up 1
    5v5 Up 2+
    5v5 Down 1
    5v5 Down 2+
    4v4
    All situations
    5v4
    4v5
    All PP
    All PK
    5v5 ZSA (zone start adjusted)
    5v5 Home ZSA
    5v5 Road ZSA
    5v5 Close ZSA
    5v5 Tied ZSA
    5v5 Up 1 ZSA
    5v5 Up 2+ ZSA
    5v5 Down 1 ZSA
    5v5 Down 2+ ZSA
    5v5 Leading ZSA
    5v5 Trailing ZSA

    Just hit the “situation” tab here: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ in the Team Stats area

  90. Moose says:

    lynn: It’s interesting to note that the Condors have taken two small players out of today’s lineup (Benik and Descheneau)and have added Greg Chaseand Joel Rechlicz, each playing his first game of the season.

    It could be a rock ’em sock ‘ em game.

    Yeah, I’m guessing they didn’t like the butt-kicking last night and wanna “message send” in the rematch today. Also, Platzer sits too. Weird.

  91. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Thanks for this/these.

    Do we have HDSC% for these clubs or just SC%?

    Yes thx indeed.

    It’s early times but I think it’s important we quash any narrative that this version of the Oilers is even remotely similar to the examples WG has cited in this thread. These are good times. Enjoy it.

  92. Johnny Larue says:

    N64: .934 this year .953 if you exclude the Buffalo game, but hate stats with gaps.

    More impressive is .975 last 5 games or .984 last 4 games.

    Thanks for that he is on fire right now ever since the twins where born he hasn’t lost a game.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pretty sure I heard Gerry Fleming or someone else associated with the Condors tell someone on talk radio (it all runs together after a while) that Reinhart had gotten dinged up in a practice.

  94. Moose says:

    Craig Anderson rejoining Sens per Garrioch.

  95. innercitysmytty says:

    Does anyone know if empty net goals are included in 5×5 shooting percentage? Is this raising our shooting percentage with the 4-5 empty netters?

  96. Moose says:

    Moose:
    Craig Anderson rejoining Sens per Garrioch.

    Oh man, his wife diagnosed with cancer. Terrible.

  97. lynn says:

    Moose: Yeah, I’m guessing they didn’t like the butt-kicking last night and wanna “message send” in the rematch today. Also, Platzer sits too. Weird.

    The line of Platzer, Benik, and Descheneau (all smaller players) was a black hole last game. A message is being sent to the team and opposition today.

    There is pressure to win at the AHL level, too. The Condors can’t stay at one win for long.

  98. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Johnny Larue: Thanks for that he is on fire right now ever since the twins where born he hasn’t lost a game.

    Since the twins were born Tal-bot has surrendered 2 goals total in 4 games & recorded twin shutouts. It’s pretty awesome at any time that a goalie goes on such a tear, but especially so just now.

  99. Bruce McCurdy says:

    lynn: The line of Platzer, Benik, and Descheneau (all smaller players) was a black hole last game. A message is being sent to the team and opposition today.

    Probably in that order.

  100. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Thanks for this/these.

    Do we have HDSC% for these clubs or just SC%?

    Just SC%

    Naturalstattrick has HDSC% but he only has the last 2 years + this year for data

  101. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: Yes thx indeed.

    It’s early times but I think it’s important we quash any narrative that this version of the Oilers is even remotely similar to the examples WG has cited in this thread. These are good times. Enjoy it.

    Thanks Pouzar.

    Did you see that I said nice things about Nurse at the end of the GDT?

    🙂

  102. Confused says:

    Standard models are unlikely to describe the oilers because we have the biggest anomaly in the league — McDavid.

    Give him the puck and watch him fly — the opposition are in full panic mode. He wins games all by himself at times.

    So we are basically a rush team. We don’t mind being in our own end too much — because it maximizes space for flying.

    In fact, we are happy with “our Centers are better than our Centers” as a team plan.

    Want a track meet — lets go!
    Want to cycle — we brake it up and give it to a center and watch them fly.
    Wings come crashing in for support.

    Lets keep flying!

  103. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: Thanks Pouzar.

    Did you see that I said nice things about Nurse at the end of the GDT?

    Ha ha….I was out all day…just catching up now…I have to catch the early AM posts from that thread.

  104. JDï™ says:

    Yes, very sad:

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug 1m1 minute ago

    They are in a wait and see time period on treatment so Nicole insisted Craig rejoin his team. He arrives tonight and a decision…

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug now25 seconds ago

    …will be made tomorrow on wether he starts or not. O’Connor has been recalled as well.

  105. Woodguy says:

    flea: Correct if I’m worng, but isn’t this score adjusted Corsi?

    Yes, score adjusted corsi takes all the situations into account for every corsi event and adjusts them based on a regression using the last 10 years of data.

    Example:

    Oilers have been ahead a lot so far this season.

    Their raw CF% is 47.22% which is 25th

    Their score,zone and venue adjusted CF% is 50.33% which is 13th

    People realized long ago about score effects on corsi.

  106. jm363561 says:

    Frank the dog: Hats off to Rickithebear on this one for consistently arguingin facour of HQSA.
    I often didn’t understand what he said but no wonder WG and GM took a form of that on as their own.

    For what it is worth I totally agree. Most people on this blog know at least 10 times more about hockey than me, but when it comes to Corsi I just do not get it. For the 2015.16 season the Oilers Corsi profile was just below league average; identical to Florida’s; and way better than New York’s. Until someone can explain these, and other, mega anomalies I am an HDSC guy. A team’s shooting approach (41 vs 29 feet) arguably dictates its Corsi number more than its ability. With a good goalie who cares how many shots the opposition takes from 40+ feet?

    EDIT: Hat tip also to David Staples. He was the first writer who I followed and always liked his focus on chances.

  107. Pouzar says:

    Zelepukin: No idea what game Pouzar was watching by saying they didn’t play well.

    Z, if you are out there, I was totally trolling…lol….fckin Boxers

  108. jm363561 says:

    Sorry to add a second rookie observation – looking at the final 2015.16 standings goal difference seems a far better indicator of success than Corsi. Just an accountant’s approach to looking at things.

    We can therefore start to plan the Parade!!

  109. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Hard to be frustrated by the (decent) corsi numbers when the HDCF% metrics are so strong right now

  110. Georges says:

    Shafty19,
    Lowetide,

    Goal differential has the highest correlation to winning or points percentage, and

    goal_differential = (shots_for x shooting_%) – (shots_against x save_%)

    If you can move one of these four variables in your favour and hold the others constant, you bump up your goal differential and get more wins. (At the team level, the four variables appear uncorrelated, so you have four independent sliders on your NHL GM and coaching control panel.)

    It seems to be accepted that the only reliable way to move the variables in your direction is to win the shot battle. Reliable because shot metrics correlate (positively) year to year while the (PDO) percentage metrics don’t. From this, the feeling seems to be that shot metrics measure skill and can be trusted while percentage metrics are more about luck than skill and can’t be trusted.

    The PDO is luck argument is laid out here:

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/28/2520115/pdo-if-you-were-going-to-understand-just-one-nhl-statistic

    Now, in that post, Hawerchuk does say that shooting and save percentage are primarily and not entirely luck driven. If you’re committed to the entirely luck driven argument, then you’re adopting the view that there’s no way to consistently beat the market on percentage stats. You would be willing to give me even odds for any team in any year on whether the team would be better or worse than the median team on the percentage stats. (I laid out my argument against and linked to my analysis a few days back.)

    The difference between primarily and entirely luck driven is very, very interesting, because that’s the gap in which you find elite talent. In the past, teams with elite offensive or goaltending talent consistently beat the market on percentage stats.

    So, what Woodguy did earlier in the post is correct. If you ever see elite percentage stats, you should ask is there a possibility that you’re dealing with elite talent. If, as in the case of McDavid, the answer is yes, you should expect to consistently have an edge over the typical NHL team on the percentage stats and get more wins.

  111. lynn says:

    Lowetide,

    I always cull the posts on your wonderful site for opinions rather than stats.

    There is room for everyone. Your site is a cut above. Thank you.

  112. flea says:

    jm363561,

    Staples was on the right track, but his stat tracking was objective. Didn’t he decide what constituted a scoring chance?

    It is interesting to see everything come full circle (or maybe 270 degrees) where the shot data is now available and some of the smart people here are using that actual data to determine what is a HDSC. Still probably not perfect but a long ways from objective analysis.

    If all the players had chips in their jerseys, and there was one in the puck, I think the NHL could easily start producing stats like player and team possession, contested possession, battles won/lost, individual player time with puck, etc. Combine this with Shot data and you’d really start to see who was controlling the game.

  113. Bruce McCurdy says:

    One issue I have with advanced stats is that Corsi is based on shot attempts but PDO is based on actual shots. There is a gap in there — what percentage of shot attempts, for & against, wind up being actual shots. From there PDO & its components determine what % of those actual shots go in the nets.

    The gap is likely to be more apparent on extreme outliers like Kris Russell who does some of his goalie’s job for him. Not saying Russell is great, just that CF% is not a fair way to rate him.

    The advantage of Corsi is that sample size is roughly double that of shots so accumulates to a critical mass quicker. Over a longer term, however, I prefer shots on goal over shot attempts. A big part of the reason is that SF:SA * Sh%:Sv% can be equated to GF:GA. Can’t do that with Corsi.

    Last time I checked NHL.com has Corsi & Fenwick equivalents in their Enhanced Stats package but not shots, which to me is a tell that they fundamentally do not understand the concepts.

  114. Woodguy says:

    Admiral Ackbar,

    To all the Corgis and fancy stat lovers. Has anyone studied how any of these stats correlate as predictors of success? Something with P-values and confidence intervals would be the proof you’re looking for. With a powerful P value and narrow CI, the value of your fancy stat would be irrefutable. Until this is done, scientifically, many of these fancy stats (while ingenious) still don’t have powerful evidence to support their use as a predictor of success.

    Yes.

    All of these stats are about predicting future goal share. (GF%)

    Was first used because it predicted future GF% better than GF%, especially in small gp samples.

    Still does.

    xGF/DFF predict GF% better than CF% when using a split half correlations within a season.

    When it comes to predicting future GF% with small samples, CF% and xGF/DFF are all very similar.

    They are all better than GF%.

    The whole basis of corsi analysis is to predict future goal share.

    Tore Purdy (RIP) and Vic Ferarri (Time Barnes) did all the work years ago that show this.

    Vic’s site is offline since he was hired by the Captials, but Tore’s is still up if you want to read it: http://objectivenhl.blogspot.ca/

    For more recent reading google “Eric Tulsky Broad Street Hockey” and a lot of his stuff is still up too even though CAR hired him a couple years ago.

  115. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    One issue I have with advanced stats is that Corsi is based on shot attempts but PDO is based on actual shots.There is a gap in there — what percentage of shot attempts, for & against, wind up being actual shots. From there PDO & its components determine what % of those actual shots go in the nets.

    The gap is likely to be more apparent on extreme outliers like Kris Russell who does some of his goalie’s job for him. Not saying Russell is great, just that CF% is not a fair way to rate him.

    The advantage of Corsi is that sample size is roughly double that of shots so accumulates to a critical mass quicker. Over a longer term, however, I prefer shots on goal over shot attempts. A big part of the reason is that SF:SA * Sh%:Sv% can be equated to GF:GA. Can’t do that with Corsi.

    Last time I checked NHL.com has Corsi & Fenwick equivalents in their Enhanced Stats package but not shots, which to me is a tell that they fundamentally do not understand the concepts.

    I’m still concerned with acceptance of any of these statistics without evidence that they are strong predictors of success. We employ confidence intervals and p-values in medical clinical trials to show the strength of evidence. That could be applied here. I’m surprised that the individuals that have contrived these measures aren’t looking at the strength of their evidence. With powerful evidence comes proof. I figured that’d be sought after.

  116. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Woodguy,

    Brilliant! Thanks. I’ll take a look.

  117. N64 says:

    Georges: Goal differential has the highest correlation to winning or points percentage, and
    goal_differential = (shots_for x shooting_%) – (shots_against x save_%)
    If you can move one of these four variables in your favour and hold the others constant, you bump up your goal differential and get more wins. (At the team level, the four variables appear uncorrelated, so you have four independent sliders on your NHL GM and coaching control panel.)
    It seems to be accepted that the only reliable way to move the variables in your direction is to win the shot battle.

    THIS x 4.

    The shot volume sliders seem more sustainable in general.. At a high level danger adjustments improve the correlation to current results (descriptive power) but not as much for future results (predictive power).
    .
    Tbe elite players that repeatedly tilt the 4 sliders are the signal buried in the noise of the choir of luck.

    Woodguy did some great sleuthing to tease out young G and D emerging as slide tilters. Adding in G’s DFF and binning WoodMoney will also be an interesting tool in the hunt for sustain.

  118. Ryan says:

    Georges:
    Shafty19,
    Lowetide,

    Goal differential has the highest correlation to winning or points percentage, and

    goal_differential = (shots_for x shooting_%) – (shots_against x save_%)

    If you can move one of these four variables in your favour and hold the others constant, you bump up your goal differential and get more wins. (At the team level, the four variables appear uncorrelated, so you have four independent sliders on your NHL GM and coaching control panel.)

    It seems to be accepted that the only reliable way to move the variables in your direction is to win the shot battle. Reliable because shot metrics correlate (positively) year to year while the (PDO) percentage metrics don’t. From this, the feeling seems to be that shot metrics measure skill and can be trusted while percentage metrics are more about luck than skill and can’t be trusted.

    The PDO is luck argument is laid out here:

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/28/2520115/pdo-if-you-were-going-to-understand-just-one-nhl-statistic

    Now, in that post, Hawerchuk does say that shooting and save percentage are primarily and not entirely luck driven. If you’re committed to the entirely luck driven argument, then you’re adopting the view that there’s no way to consistently beat the market on percentage stats. You would be willing to give me even odds for any team in any year on whether the team would be better or worse than the median team on the percentage stats. (I laid out my argument against and linked to my analysis a few days back.)

    The difference between primarily and entirely luck driven is very, very interesting, because that’s the gap in which you find elite talent. In the past, teams with elite offensive or goaltending talent consistently beat the market on percentage stats.

    So, what Woodguy did earlier in the post is correct. If you ever see elite percentage stats, you should ask is there a possibility that you’re dealing with elite talent. If, as in the case of McDavid, the answer is yes, you should expect to consistently have an edge over the typical NHL team on the percentage stats and get more wins.

    If save percentage is primarily luck driven, then the Canaiens must have been horribly unlucky after Price was injured last season.

    Why waste cap space on Price or Lundqvist?

    Hire two league minimum cap hit AHL goalies and find a lucky penny.

  119. treevojo says:

    stephen sheps:
    oilerman1000,

    I don’t think it’s necessary to rip on Hall in order to justify the Oilers current levels of success. The trade happened, he’s a Devil now, contributing their team as best as he can, and is doing quite well considering how much of the team’s scoring he’s responsible for. He made a bad play but he also had to be out on the ice in that critical moment. But really, that’s apropos of nothing. Hall was not solely responsible for the Oilers failures in the past. No need to make him into a scapegoat or a straw man.

    The Oilers are winning, but it’s an almost entirely new team compared to the roster 8 games into last season. The past can inform our collective unease about the sustainability of the present but it is also something to let go of as we look forward to what this version of the team can do long term.

    I agree with this post.

    If I had to guess I would say it was a large majority not in favour of the hall-larsson trade in this community.

    There is a vocal minority that seem to like to get their hall digs in at this time.

    But I would be willing to bet there are more posters sitting on their hands right now waiting for the eventual oiler cold streak and hall to continue his offensive dominance.

    We will see at that point just how level headed this community is.

    Hopefully they will follow the blog authors lead and continue with class.

    I have my doubts.

  120. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy:
    I forgot the 13/14 Avalanche with Jack Adams behind the bench.

    CF% 47.69% –25th
    PDO 1017.5 – 3rd
    SCF% 47.81% – 22nd

    PDO took a lower end team and vaulted them to 2nd in the WC.

    Roy should have handed that trophy to Varlamov right on the stage.

  121. Woodguy says:

    All,

    Corsi is not an end within itself.

    Its is used because it predicts future goal share better than any metric in small samples.

    Its all about goal share, which drives winning.

    Teams can run hot (high PDO) while losing the shot attempt share, but its not sustainable.

    Newer metrics like xGF and DFF *describe* the actual play better imo, but in small samples they do not predict goal share better than corsi.

    This is important.

    Now, not all xGF are created equal. @DTMAboutHeart has his own xGF which includes regressed shooting percentage of each player and it actually does predict future GF% better than corsi (for a while)

    Read DTMAboutHeart’s stuff here: https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/01/expected-goals-are-a-better-predictor-of-future-scoring-than-corsi-goals/

    None of the fancystat sites use his xGF metric, so understand that when anyone uses xGF, its not his, but @Mannyelk’s from corsica.hockey so it doesn’t predict future GF% better than corsi.

    GMoney’s DFF is very similar to Manny’s xGF and G is going to have 6 years of data when he is done with the database so we will be able to see how well DFF/xGF predicts future GF%, but TODAY WE DO NOT KNOW IF IT IS BETTER THAN CF%.

    We do know that with a full season of data DFF predicted GF% better then CF% in a split-half correlation (randomly take half the sample and compare it to the other half), but that was just one season we we can be *positive* that it is true over multiple seasons.

    We will run that too.

    Here is GMoney’s post on DFF: https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2016/07/17/a-brief-statistical-look-at-dangerous-fenwick/

    To sum up:

    Corsi is all about predicting future goal share and its still the best we have in public data bases.

    Use score, zone, venue adjusted corsi when possible as it can remove these effects from the data.

    I want to run regressions to see how SC% predicts future goal share as well but I need to find someone with the time and inclination to do it.

  122. Gret99zky says:

    Also, do shots off the posts/crossbar count as shots?

  123. N64 says:

    Ryan: If save percentage is primarily luck driven, then the Canaiens must have been horribly unlucky after Price was injured last season.

    Why waste cap space on Price or Lundqvist?

    Hire two league minimum cap hit AHL goalies and find a lucky penny.

    Some folks hobby is to run a metal detector over fields looking for precious metals.

    Woodguy”s is trolling through emerging G and D separating gold from fools gold.

  124. Frank the dog says:

    jm363561: For what it is worth I totally agree. Most people on this blog know at least 10 times more about hockey than me, but when it comes to Corsi I just do not get it. For the 2015.16 season the Oilers Corsi profile was just below league average; identical to Florida’s; and way better than New York’s. Until someone can explain these, and other, mega anomalies I am an HDSC guy. A team’s shooting approach (41 vs 29 feet) arguably dictates its Corsi number more than its ability. With a good goalie who cares how many shots the opposition takes from 40+ feet?

    EDIT: Hat tip also to David Staples. He was the first writer who I followed and always liked his focus on chances.

    There is a school of thought here that Eakins was/is a better coach than Krieger, based on Corsi,. To my eye, Eakins at one stage thought he could win games by circling the o zone and shooting from afar at oblique angles. Krueger, on the other hand had inferior corsi but much higher sh%. The argument against Krueger is/was that sh% is random and therefore will always regress to the mean, so Krueger was just lucky and Eakins in fact was the better coach. I believe that Krueger was good rather than lucky, and has a strategy that produced a higher sh%.
    Edited for phone finger auto correct.

  125. Woodguy says:

    Admiral Ackbar:
    Woodguy,

    Brilliant! Thanks. I’ll take a look.

    Admiral Ackbar: :

    You’re welcome.

    Read this too: : https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/01/expected-goals-are-a-better-predictor-of-future-scoring-than-corsi-goals/

    Hockey-graphs is a very good site and I recommend reading all the posts.

  126. Woodguy says:

    N64: Some folks hobby is to run a metal detector over fields looking for precious metals.

    Woodguy”s is trolling through emerging G and D separating gold from fools gold.

    Hehe.

    Thanks,

    Its the truth.

  127. Woodguy says:

    Gret99zky:
    Also, do shots off the posts/crossbar count as shots?

    No.

    If they did they’d have to be a save because its wasn’t a goal, but if the goalie didn’t save it, it can’t be a save.

  128. N64 says:

    Ryan: If save percentage is primarily luck driven, then the Canaiens must have been horribly unlucky after Price was injured last season

    Primarily as in the whole population demonstrates more randomness than sustain. Exactly why elite G is soooooo important to identify.

  129. Fog of Warts says:

    I looked at the upcoming schedule. If we manage 5-5-2 over the next twelve, I’ll officially downgrade my 85 to “pessimistic”—enter the building through the door marked “Realistic”, then make a hard left at the first foyer (avoiding, if possible, the tantalizing greased-banister rimming the flight down).

  130. Woodguy says:

    I guess another way to say this is:

    Goal Share (GF%) is a terrible predictor of future goal share, so goal +/- is not a good stat.

    Shot Attempt Share (CF%) is a much better predictor of future goal share so shot attempt +/- is a useful stat.

  131. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    One issue I have with advanced stats is that Corsi is based on shot attempts but PDO is based on actual shots.There is a gap in there — what percentage of shot attempts, for & against, wind up being actual shots. From there PDO & its components determine what % of those actual shots go in the nets.

    The gap is likely to be more apparent on extreme outliers like Kris Russell who does some of his goalie’s job for him. Not saying Russell is great, just that CF% is not a fair way to rate him.

    The advantage of Corsi is that sample size is roughly double that of shots so accumulates to a critical mass quicker. Over a longer term, however, I prefer shots on goal over shot attempts. A big part of the reason is that SF:SA * Sh%:Sv% can be equated to GF:GA. Can’t do that with Corsi.

    Last time I checked NHL.com has Corsi & Fenwick equivalents in their Enhanced Stats package but not shots, which to me is a tell that they fundamentally do not understand the concepts.

    If I may derail the discussion with an anecdote that this post reminded me of – I grew up in Edmonton (North End – “cover me I’m going for groceries”) watching hockey with my dad who HATED the Canadiens!

    In those days before the WHA, you could be a Habs fan or a Leafs fan – or occasionally as I and a few friends were, Bruins fans. (Flyers got popular for a while with their smash mouth stuff!)

    Anyway we’d be watching the Saturday night game listening to the announcers and frequently (here’s the connection to this particular post) we’d hear the announcer say “and the shot from the point goes off the leg of the Canadian defender in front of the net”. Very often – particularly if the Leafs were losing – my dad would jump up and scream at the TV “Off a leg, off a leg – how many G#&da#% legs do those bas#$#ds have anyway?”

    Fun times! Now back to your regular programming!

  132. Professor Q says:

    Are there any updates on injured players, and where they might fit in with the current (so as not to mess up the mojo)?

  133. hunter1909 says:

    Fog of Warts: I looked at the upcoming schedule. If we manage 5-5-2 over the next twelve, I’ll officially downgrade my 85 to “pessimistic”

    I’ve decided they’re going to get 115+ points.

    Let me check that next 12 games…

    H Ottawa – easy win
    A Toronto – easy win
    A Rangers – competative game
    A Islanders – competative game
    A Detroit – easy win(this one worries me)
    A Pittsburgh – probable Loss
    H Dallas – easy win
    H Rangers – competative game
    A Anaheim – probable split win/loss with next game
    A Los Angeles – probable split win/loss with last game
    A Dallas – competative game
    H Chicago – competative game

    My NHL spidey sense, allowing a single point for each competative game gives 15 out of the next 24 points.

    Like any fan, I’m usually full of it.

  134. N64 says:

    treevojo: But I would be willing to bet there are more posters sitting on their hands right now waiting for the eventual oiler cold streak and hall to continue his offensive dominance.

    If the criteria is playoff games played in Edmonton the next 6 years vs. the last 6 years then Chia wins any trade that does not include 97. Of course the standard is higher than that.

    As fans of Hall and the Oilers if we are lucky we land in a place where as many people as possible can believe it was a win win trade. Whatever the evidence ends up saying 😉

  135. hunter1909 says:

    treevojo: But I would be willing to bet there are more posters sitting on their hands right now waiting for the eventual oiler cold streak and hall to continue his offensive dominance.

    This is the nature of human beings. Some will always want to stick the boot in, rather than take a chance themselves.

    They’re not sitting on their hands. They’re wiping their arses with them.

  136. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    Great post again!

    Seems like Russel has 20 legs!

  137. Woogie63 says:

    Right now Matthews and Laine look head and shoulders above the rest of the draft class.

  138. hunter1909 says:

    Woogie63:
    Right now Matthews and Laine look head and shoulders above the rest of the draft class.

    I wouldn’t want both, if it meant trading away thecaptainconnormcdavid.

  139. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Woogie63:
    Right now Matthews and Laine look head and shoulders above the rest of the draft class.

    Agreed. Though Poolparty looked VERY good last night (to my eye). Still had the giveaways and poor neutral zone passes but he’s gaining confidence (quickly) and is looking like the next best kid in that draft.

  140. Professor Q says:

    I would add that Chychrun has been extremely impressive as well, and a steal by Arizona.

  141. neojanus says:

    Just a couple of observations.

    1. Puljujarvi could easily have three or four goals, but his finish is snake-bitten (his own doing). I’d send him down to braise a little bit, but would bring him back after 20 games. His positioning is inconsistent and he fights the puck a little. Saying that, I can see that his defensive awareness is strong, but I think his body is failing his hockey sense. AHL will allow him to come up to speed a little bit better.

    2. Defense looks rather good for the most part. Both Russell and Larsson are great at slowing the game down from their zone (usually). I really like how Russell is willing to turn back and start a break out again if it looks poor. Smart hockey. The D coach needs to work on that backhand clearance stuff. Both Nurse and Klefbom aren’t hard enough on that play. The puck doesn’t travel far enough.

    3. I’d tinker with the PP option. I don’t like Eberle on that first unit at the moment. Give Nuge a bit of time there?

    4. Draisaitl seems frustrated to me. He isn’t quite on his game and is overplaying the puck and forcing too much in the offensive zone. He needs to use his wingers more to finish plays.

    5. The trap sucks because it’ll keep Connor from scoring 130, but Vancouver playing that system will give the Oilers a win EVERY time because our speed will always trump the aging one chance antics of the Sedins. Great to see the Oilers win a plodding game. IF (and a big IF) they make the playoffs, it’s good to see that they have the ability to play the patience game.

    6. I’m stuck out in Vancouver and the commentary is garbage out here. Garrett and Stonehouse were just brutal, especially Garrett. The bias was brutal.

    7. I wish Anderson all my best. Cancer has been an unkind visitor in my family repeatedly and I hope his wife gets the very best care.

  142. Woodguy says:

    Zachary DeVine ‏@zakkthebear 16m16 minutes ago
    Khaira out on the PK as well. Might be the best forward for the @Condors tonight. Already has a goal on two shots, playing in all situations

    Nice to see.

    I think he might be better than Slepy and PItlick.

  143. Bruce Wayne says:

    One of the things stats can do is disprove myths.

    For instance it is often repeated that Eakins coached for Corsi, on the one hand, and his teams allowed more scoring chances per shot event because of the swarm.

    However, at the time Michael Parkatti was tracking precisely these things. And it turns out that the Oilers of that time did not shoot from farther away than the other team, nor did they allow shots from closer in.

    Similarly, David Staples scoring chance data is not reliable. The first problem is defining a scoring chance. No matter what decisions you make here you open yourself up to systematic bias. Worse, it depends upon a judgement on what is a scoring chance which is influence by the result. That is, goals are more likely to be judged a scoring chance than a shot that misses the net, even if the chance itself was exactly the same. Which is to say that judged scoring chances are not independent of goals, but what you are looking for with scoring chance data is to find a measure independent of goals that will predict goals. Using this kind of scoring chance data is selecting on the dependent variable in social science speak.

  144. Bruce Wayne says:

    On the theory that the Oilers are doing better at limiting scoring chances here is some data:

    So far this year 25% of Fenwick events have been scored as HDSC.

    For the Oilers that breaks down as:

    32% of Fenwick events for have been HDSC.
    23% of Fenwick events against have been HDSC.

    So what does this mean. The Oilers are, in fact, creating better scoring chances than we’d expect. We’d expect 59 HDSC and they have instead created 78. This is a big difference. Call this the McDavid effect.

    The converse, however, is not necessarily true. If the Oilers were league average at keeping shots to the outside they would have allowed 65 HDSC. They have allowed 61, so only 4 less than average, which is within the range of a single fire drill of a shift. There is much less, or no, evidence of a Larsson effect.

    Moreover, some of this is going to be score effects, which is going to drive up Fenwick events more than it drives up scoring chances.

    Conclusion, this winning streak can be explained almost entirely by three things. 1) McDavid, 2) Talbot, 3) variance in shooting percentage.

    Most importantly, the narrative that the winning streak is evidence the Oilers won the trade is demonstrably false.

    If you don’t understand why you are successful you won’t continue to be successful.

  145. dustrock says:

    Funny that Staples thought Klefbom Larsson were mediocre. Against the Sedins overall they played very well. Staples said probably should have had a goal against – well they didn’t, and that’s probably average for a top pairing.

    Klefbom had 2 excellent offensive plays where he could have had the primary assist.

    But he’s been harsh on that pairing I think so far this year 🙂

    Just IMHO.

  146. böök¡je says:

    I don’t why. I guess it’s because sometimes people just randomly post comments totally out of context for no reason. Maybe that explains it.

  147. hunter1909 says:

    As a Canadian, I appreciate the opportunity to view the big game tonight either in French(Montreal) or English(Leafs).

  148. Lowetide says:

    Bruce Wayne:

    Similarly, David Staples scoring chance data is not reliable.

    I don’t read David’s posts, so cannot comment on recent changes, but I would suggest that the problem with tracking scoring chances is bias. David’s data isn’t reliable is a debate we can have, but what isn’t in question is that we would be better off getting a bunch of kids from New Mexico State to track them. Less bias, and once the idea of a scoring chance is understood, then bias is the big issue. For David, you and me.

  149. Woodguy says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    The converse, however, is not necessarily true. If the Oilers were league average at keeping shots to the outside they would have allowed 65 HDSC. They have allowed 61, so only 4 less than average, which is within the range of a single fire drill of a shift. There is much less, or no, evidence of a Larsson effect.

    There is a good argument that getting to “league average” in terms of HDSCA/FA *IS* a Larsson effect.

    Last year Oilers HDSCA/FA was 24%.

    Larsson is at 20% so far this year.

    Here’s the Oilers HDCA/FA for the Dmen:

    Oscar Klefbom 0.179
    Kris Russell 0.198
    Adam Larsson 0.202
    Andrej Sekera 0.250
    Darnell Nurse 0.264
    Eric Gryba 0.274

    Last night Nurse and Gryba were 1 HDSCA on 6 FA.

    If they can turn a corner it will help immensely

  150. Bruce Wayne says:

    Lowetide: I don’t read David’s posts, so cannot comment on recent changes, but I would suggest that the problem with tracking scoring chances is bias. David’s data isn’t reliable is a debate we can have, but what isn’t in question is that we would be better off getting a bunch of kids from New Mexico State to track them. Less bias, and once the idea of a scoring chance is understood, then bias is the big issue. For David, you and me.

    There are two kinds of bias. There is the bias you are talking about. But I don’t that’s the only problem here. The larger problem is outcome bias. NO matter who is doing the judging they are going to see goals as scoring chances, whether they were or not. So you have to define the scoring chance independent of the result, including whether the shot hit the net or not. The judgement of whether it is a scoring chance has to be completed before it gets to the goalie.

  151. Woodguy says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    So what does this mean. The Oilers are, in fact, creating better scoring chances than we’d expect. We’d expect 59 HDSC and they have instead created 78. This is a big difference. Call this the McDavid effect.

    Not so fast……

    OIler forwards HDSCF/FA

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.379
    Jordan Eberle 0.370
    Milan Lucic 0.367
    Anton Slepyshev 0.333
    Benoit Pouliot 0.333
    Connor McDavid 0.333
    Patrick Maroon 0.313
    Jesse Puljujarvi 0.286
    Zack Kassian 0.281
    Leon Draisaitl 0.262
    Tyler Pitlick 0.259
    Mark Letestu 0.257
    Anton Lander 0.214

    Seems to be more team wide.

    Nuge!!!!

    Just need him to generate more FA/60!!

  152. Bruce Wayne says:

    Woodguy:
    Bruce Wayne,

    The converse, however, is not necessarily true. If the Oilers were league average at keeping shots to the outside they would have allowed 65 HDSC. They have allowed 61, so only 4 less than average, which is within the range of a single fire drill of a shift. There is much less, or no, evidence of a Larsson effect.

    There is a good argument that getting to “league average” in terms of HDSCA/FA *IS* a Larsson effect.

    Last year Oilers HDSCA/FA was 24%.

    Larsson is at 20% so far this year.

    Here’s the Oilers HDCA/FA for the Dmen:

    Oscar Klefbom0.179
    Kris Russell0.198
    Adam Larsson0.202
    Andrej Sekera0.250
    Darnell Nurse0.264
    Eric Gryba0.274

    Last night Nurse and Gryba were 1 HDSCA on 6 FA.

    If they can turn a corner it will help immensely

    IF last year 24% of FA were HDSC and this year it is 23% then there has been no change, at least in this regard.
    I’m not saying Larrsson isn’t an effective player. I”m saying that he doesn’t have magical scoring chance reduction abilities. The improvement this year has nothing to do with reducing high danger scoring chances. That is what counting what happens (i.e. watching the game) tells us.

    The improvement of the defense is Talbot, not the other way around.

  153. Bruce Wayne says:

    Woodguy:
    Bruce Wayne,

    So what does this mean. The Oilers are, in fact, creating better scoring chances than we’d expect. We’d expect 59 HDSC and they have instead created 78. This is a big difference. Call this the McDavid effect.

    Not so fast……

    OIler forwards HDSCF/FA

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins0.379
    Jordan Eberle0.370
    Milan Lucic0.367
    Anton Slepyshev0.333
    Benoit Pouliot0.333
    Connor McDavid0.333
    Patrick Maroon0.313
    Jesse Puljujarvi0.286
    Zack Kassian0.281
    Leon Draisaitl0.262
    Tyler Pitlick0.259
    Mark Letestu0.257
    Anton Lander0.214

    Seems to be more team wide.

    Nuge!!!!

    Just need him to generate more FA/60!!

    I’ll accept this modification of the thoery. It does appear to be team wide on offense.

  154. russ99 says:

    After seeing how effective Pouliot – RNH – Kassian are without the puck and on the cycle, I just don’t see why so many fans want to change that line.

    Best Oilers shutdown line in a decade. As long as we get some scoring out of them I’m happy.

  155. Woodguy says:

    Bruce Wayne: IF last year 24% of FA were HDSC and this year it is 23% then there has been no change, at least in this regard.
    I’m not saying Larrsson isn’t an effective player.I”m saying that he doesn’t have magical scoring chance reduction abilities.The improvement this year has nothing to do with reducing high danger scoring chances.That is what counting what happens (i.e. watching the game) tells us.

    The improvement of the defense is Talbot, not the other way around.

    I have no argument that Talbot is driving the good GA.

    I’m arguing that Larsson is helping drive down HDSCA/FA as his rate is lower than the team.

    Also,

    Klef is dreamy

  156. Woodguy says:

    Note, I wrote HDSCF/FA, but mean FF.

    I used FF and not FA for the ratios

  157. jm363561 says:

    The converse, however, is not necessarily true. If the Oilers were league average at keeping shots to the outside they would have allowed 65 HDSC. They have allowed 61, so only 4 less than average, which is within the range of a single fire drill of a shift. There is much less, or no, evidence of a Larsson effect.

    ====

    To determine a Larsson effect you would compare Oiler’s HDSCA last year to this year, not to league average. There has been a significant improvement.

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