G16 2016-17: RANGERS AT OILERS

The Edmonton Oilers hit the ice at Rogers Place tonight staring at the possibility of a three-game losing streak—and facing a formidable foe. The NY Rangers are fast, strong, big and deep—and the goaltending is a giant wall. With a trip to California and Texas ahead, an extended losing streak is possible, giving this version of the Oilers their first real test of the season. I don’t think the town team wins tonight, unless The Gift goes off in a big way.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in November 2016: 2-3-1 goal differential -4
  • Oilers after 15, 2015: 5-10-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers after 15, 2016: 9-5-1, goal differential +6

A year ago G16, Edmonton won 4-3 in OT over the Anaheim Ducks on a Teddy Purcell goal. The Nuge had a good game and Horcoff scored on us. Tonight, the slow players on the home side are going to have to cheat for defense and odd-man rushes for the blueshirts may be the new normal. They are fast, Edmonton is not as fast across the roster.

DEFENSE, 2016-17

def-nov-12

  • This is courtesy Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.
  • I am a CorsiRel man, and using that metric the first and third pairings are doing good work, while Sekera’s number is slowly improving without Kris Russell. Sekera is now at 47.9 without Russell, but is also only 43.7 with rookie Benning—that is in very little ice time. I do think the club needs to find him a better partner.

I RTd this on twitter yesterday and got all kinds of reactions, but this is a very good graph for the Oilers. The PDO is now in a normal range, meaning luck is no longer a major story. Possession is solid, scoring is reflective of a contending team, the overall looks average or a hair better. This team could contend for a playoff spot—and for Oilers fans that is a positive, that is progress.

FORWARDS, 2016-17

forwards-no-11

  • A quality player should bring a Corsi for 5×5 of 50 percent or better and a 5×5/60 of 2.00 or better.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Eberle is running fine, these are good numbers across the board. One of the things I am hearing from people is that the boxcars should be better for this trio—but if you take the time to look there is so much good here. There are 12 EV goals on the line in 15 games, this is a terrific total for the line.
  • I worry for Oilers fans now, because many are focused on the wrong things. Experience tells us luck has a profound impact on things, and that blaming this player or that while not identifying all sorties gives one a skewed view of the world. Famous sports decisions that have developed from this kind of thinking are ‘We only won 78 games with Gary Carter, he must be the problem’ and ‘that blasted Miro Satan refuses to back check’ in our own time. Folks, please don’t focus on things that are important and mistake them for the whole truth, the absolute truth. It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events.
  • Lander—Letestu—Pitlick are not a strong possession unit but the group has been extremely effective offensively—and shown an ability to move up and down the lineup. I seriously wonder how Matt Hendricks slides in here, possibly replacing Anton Lander but that may not improve the club.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Kassian have been shy offensively but solid in possession. I am of a mind to let this group figure it out (Poo and Nuge have had success) but a trade PC could make today in an effort to improve the team is a fast, veteran RW with hands. The return of Kassian may mean a boost for this group, they had nice chem when he was hurt.
  • Lucic—Draisaitl—Puljujarvi  cannot piss a drop at 5×5 and I am officially concerned with this line. Leon and Lucic are 45.9 in possession, Leon has four assists in about 200 EV minutes, which is putrid—although LD does have two assists in about 60 minutes with Lucic. With the addition of Kassian, I think JP slides in here tonight and this line needs to score about three goals. We have to remember these are still early days, but for me there is enough track to worry about a talented line that cannot get things going.

WHO IS LEAVING HOME?

It is miles too early and I doubt the expansion rules are finalized (seriously) but there is a little window of opportunity here to have a chat. I have a few hockey people who will give me answers in exchange for anonymity, and have found their answers on expansion questions to be eye popping.

Here is my protected list:

  • Goal—Cam Talbot [Nick Ellis]
  • Defense—Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera [Darnell Nurse]
  • Defense—Adam Larsson, [Matt Benning]
  • Center—[Connor McDavid], Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl
  • Left Wing—Milan Lucic, Patrick Maroon, Benoit Pouliot, [Drake Caggiula]
  • Right Wing—Jordan Eberle, [Jesse Puljujarvi], Tyler Pitlick [Anton Slepyshev]

Now, I have exposed Brandon Davidson, and that is a real issue. Peter Chiarelli might try to make some kind of deal with Las Vegas, and based on conversations I have had, Griffin Reinhart might be the player chosen no matter Davidson’s availability (GRs back injury may impact that decision). If we add the players who do not need to be protected (in brackets above), this could be the best route for the Oilers. Agree? Or do you protect Davidson and expose Benoit Pouliot, et cetera?

BLAME

I want to talk to you about blame. There is a blame game that follows almost all Oilers losses these days, fans choose one player out of the group and pick him apart for sins real and imagined. As much as single events do impact every game, I encourage you to look at the wider part of the game, and understand that luck can impact a single moment or period  (or game). It is important to understand that every player fails, every player has a bad moment, but just like you at your job the overall quality of work is the more important factor.

I am genuinely concerned you are counting errors, laying blame, and missing the point. If you are after Jordan Eberle today like a dog with a bone, I beg you to reconsider. You are missing the big picture and you are focusing on things that are going to occur until the end of time—while assuming your team’s players are the only ones that make these mistakes, and then only on goals against. That is a narrow view, actually it is so narrow it misses the point.

How foolish will you look a month from now when you are counting errors and shaking your fist at Nuge or Pouliot or Patrick Maroon? Please, I beg of you, take a more mature view of the game and give the rest of us a break. Jordan Eberle does not deserve your vitriol because of your view of a single GA. If you took even a few minutes to examine what he brings, and the real value, the conversation would have a completely different tone.

If you are counting errors strictly on goals against, and forming opinions based on that, you are doing it wrong. Seriously.

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376 Responses to "G16 2016-17: RANGERS AT OILERS"

« Older Comments
  1. Gerta Rauss says:

    The Rangers are good at the hockey

  2. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Seeing Pitlick and Drai bad at the moment.

    McDavid line is rolling

    Could be a long night

  3. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Réal Goudenyéu,

    In that case, trade the bum.

  4. JDï™ says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Alain Vigneault is a seriously under ratted coach

    The season that he basically swapped jobs with some other coach, was very telling. Both ways.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Shots 7-7 and Corsi 5×5 6-7 but I don’t feel any of that. Oilers are going to need oxygen after the first period, and Lucic looked like he was carrying an iron lung on the GA.

  6. Johnny says:

    BeerMe:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLStreams/

    Thanks! Do I have to register?

  7. OmJo says:

    Would be nice if the Rangers pull their goalie for the rest of the game. Y’know, to protest Trump. In fact, if all American teams did that, I think it would send a message.

  8. JDï™ says:

    Johnny,

    That link is just a collection of noted free streams – no registration req’d.

    The submissions that are voted higher, are usually pretty good. Just don’t post any of those links directly.

  9. OmJo says:

    When Remenda was talking about how the Rangers are so good because they have depth, I sighed.

  10. OmJo says:

    Girardi is a decent player.

  11. Gret99zky says:

    Moral victory to follow.

  12. Lowetide says:

    2-0. This could get ugly. McLellan needs to bench his three slowest forwards. I can cut it down to six for him but after that he is on his own. 🙂

  13. OmJo says:

    I think the kid is going to stick around the NHL for quite a while.

  14. Jethro Tull says:

    Uh. Gonna be a long night.

  15. The Trade Guy says:

    Bleh I find this gaming bad and boring. I’m gonna clean out my fridge.

  16. Oil2Oilers says:

    Maybe the plan is to tire out the better skating team so our MOAR BIGGER troops can keep up

  17. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    What is wrong with these guys? They are not that much slower than the rangers. They all look like they are skating in quicksand, save for mcdavid.

  18. geowal says:

    NICE BACKCHECK AND TAKEAWAY BY eberle.

  19. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Réal Goudenyéu,

    Nuge line was bad bad on that last GA. Pouliot needs to shake the cobwebs loose and fast.

    Thank goodness for that McDavid line

  20. LadiesloveSmid says:

    on the way to #3 on the skid

    Ducks, kings, stars next. Could be .500 by then. Then I guess is time to overreact.

  21. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    geowal:
    NICE BACKCHECK AND TAKEAWAY BY eberle.

    I was getting a beer and missed it!

  22. leadfarmer says:

    And people thought I was crazy when I said speed is the new size. Hiring guys like Lucic makes our management once again a step behind

  23. Lowetide says:

    Rangers the best team we have seen this year? I think they are.

  24. Gret99zky says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    on the way to #3 on the skid

    Ducks, kings, stars next. Could be .500 by then. Then I guess is time to overreact.

    Nope. Just unlucky.

  25. Bank Shot says:

    leadfarmer:
    And people thought I was crazy when I said speed is the new size.Hiring guys like Lucic makes our management once again a step behind

    Size is still a thing. Rangers forwards are big and fast.

    Zucarello is the only.one.under 6 feet and about 200 lbs.

  26. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    leadfarmer:
    And people thought I was crazy when I said speed is the new size.Hiring guys like Lucic makes our management once again a step behind

    This isn’t a speed issue as much as an effort issue at this point in this game.

  27. Lowetide says:

    Wow. That was nice.

  28. OmJo says:

    Pitlick made it!

    Oh, and Sekera!!

  29. JDï™ says:

    Zackhole looks good.

    Rej!

  30. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Remenda is a plug haha

  31. Oil2Oilers says:

    beautiful passes

  32. geowal says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events.

    It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things……It’s possible to have good numbers and NOT get noticed for positive things—single moments and events that can have MINOR importance while being exactly single moments and events…that nobody notices.

    Sekera!!!

  33. Gerta Rauss says:

    Sekera needed that

    We all needed that

  34. Lowetide says:

    Fantastic passing there. Lordy that was beautiful.

  35. Gret99zky says:

    Still no goal for McDavid. Snakebit.

  36. Bank Shot says:

    Nice goal 😀

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Activate the d, score goals.

  38. Derek says:

    Man. That was a really nice pass by Maroon.

  39. Bank Shot says:

    Draisaitl has been making a lot of brutal, soft giveaways down low in his own end this season.

  40. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Nuge and Pouliot got absolutely fed that period. Brutal

    TMac pulls out the blender and drops Eberle down. Hopefully it helps.

  41. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Good gord we look like ass in our own end.

  42. Derek says:

    Lowetide:
    Rangers the best team we have seen this year? I think they are.

    Yea. I’d say Rangers, then Penguins and then the Caps.

  43. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    Rangers the best team we have seen this year? I think they are.

    Pens were dynamite when they turned it on too.

  44. Lowetide says:

    2-1 after one, the Rangers are the 84-85 Oilers right now. That team could win the Stanley if things break right. My God what a period. 13-11 Oil in shots 15-15 on the Corgis. Both are dirty liars.

  45. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Going to have to activate D like that more now. Just not creating enough offense with the Fs alone. I think Nurse should be doing this constantly. He has the speed to get back into posi t ion if the sortie fails

  46. Gerta Rauss says:

    A couple of 5 bell chances right at the end there

    Yikes

  47. OmJo says:

    I said on July 1st that we don’t need Lucic because we have Maroon. I know it’s only 15 games into the season, and he has 9pts in those games, but I just haven’t seen Lucic good – besides one game, I think it was against the Blues.

    To be blunt, Maroon has been better at being Lucic this season (so far).

    Just my opinion.

  48. OmJo says:

    Lowetide:
    2-1 after one, the Rangers are the 84-85 Oilers right now. That team could win the Stanley if things break right. My God what a period. 13-11 Oil in shots 15-15 on the Corgis. Both are dirty liars.

    Why do the Rangers Oiler better than the Oilers?

  49. BeerMe says:

    Imagine Lucic ‘s speed in 5 years. Yikes. Looks like a lumbering artillery piece out there compared to the ninjas surrounding him.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Blender on defense and up front that period.

  51. Lowetide says:

    OmJo: Why do the Rangers Oiler better than the Oilers?

    I have to give credit to their GM. He picked up fast players who were bigger and then when he ran out of those he picked up fast players who are smaller. I still don’t think much of their defense but man those forwards are stellar.

  52. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    I actually agreed with everything Spector and debrusk said. First time I swear.

  53. GMB3 says:

    Lowetide: I have to give credit to their GM. He picked up fast players who were bigger and then when he ran out of those he picked up fast players who are smaller. I still don’t think much of their defense but man those forwards are stellar.

    They can really move the puck too.

    Pitlick moving up. Wowza.

    I’m not opposed to dropping JP to Bako for a few weeks and giving Slepy more of a chance out there.

  54. OmJo says:

    Lowetide,

    Yeah their D isn’t great, but they don’t need to be when you have the Fs they do, the coaching they do, and the King as a last resort.

    Sather is a genius.

  55. OmJo says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    I actually agreed with everything Spector and debrusk said. First time I swear.

    Same here.

  56. OmJo says:

    Wonder if TMac reads Lowetide?

  57. Jethro Tull says:

    OmJo:
    Wonder if TMac reads Lowetide?

    If he doesn’t, he should!

  58. Lowetide says:

    That was a good power play. No goal but some nice looks. Lucic had a terrific chance.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Pouliot-McDavid-Maroon is interesting

  60. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Raanta looking unbeatable at this point.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Oilers pushing back in this period, seems they have found themselves, or lost themselves. One of the two.

  62. Bank Shot says:

    Getting some.good chances. Need some finish because the Rangers are probably going to get another 1 or 2.

  63. Gerta Rauss says:

    Raanta channeling his inner Kari Lehtonen

  64. Lowetide says:

    If Eberle can ignite the Nuge line, all will be well I am sure. #helied

  65. jzed says:

    So much for the “first 5 minutes” objective, uncheck 😳, problem is that the things they need to do, back check with purpose, manage the puck etc. etc. are the same things that need to occur every time you hit the ice. Every shift. And then they score a really nice goal, followed by a train wreck last shift where the Rangers hit 2 posts. Lowetide is right , enjoy the nice, tolerate the bad , in Chia we trust.

  66. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers pushing back in this period, seems they have found themselves, or lost themselves. One of the two.

    TMac said in his presser that there’s two ways to play the Rags; run handgun or tight d.

    Tight d isn’t in our repertoire, so run and gun it is.

  67. Jethro Tull says:

    Banning like Davidson, old head on young shoulders.

  68. Professor Q says:

    Always so close. Always so far away.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull: TMac said in his presser that there’s two ways to play the Rags; run handgun or tight d.

    Tight d isn’t in our repertoire, so run and gun it is.

    I actually like your run handgun idea. 🙂

  70. Lowetide says:

    Pitlick almost scored there, that would have been nice.

  71. OmJo says:

    If we keep running like this the gunning will come.

  72. OmJo says:

    Damn.

  73. Lowetide says:

    Oh Nuge.

  74. OmJo says:

    Wait!… nevermind…. First angle looked like no goal.

  75. Professor Q says:

    If that’s a goal I’ll flip.

  76. OmJo says:

    OmJo:
    If we keep running like this the gunning will come.

    Well, I was half-right.

  77. OmJo says:

    Professor Q:
    If that’s a goal I’ll flip.

    That was a good goal.

  78. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    That was really really bad.

    So so bad

    (I meant for Nuge)

  79. OmJo says:

    How many #1 defencemen do the Rangers have?

  80. Gret99zky says:

    Oh those Oilers. ™

  81. Lucinius says:

    Missed the first; was really liking what I saw in the second.

    RNH.. sigh. He was due for a screw up after how well he’s been playing defensively.

    Lot of opportunity to score that they can’t cash on before the Rangers score.

  82. Lowetide says:

    Well, I love Nuge but he needs to get that one back. Bad play by a veteran, seems to be happening a lot.

  83. Professor Q says:

    OmJo: That was a good goal.

    It was goalie interference, but thanks for playing.

  84. GMB3 says:

    Kinda thought maybe goalie interference there?

  85. OmJo says:

    Professor Q: It was goalie interference, but thanks for playing.

    Waiting for the replay on NHL.com but if it was TMac would have challenged it.

  86. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide:
    Well, I love Nuge but he needs to get that one back. Bad play by a veteran, seems to be happening a lot.

    Meh. One event. Nuge has been great tonight.

  87. OmJo says:

    Wrong time to go for a hit Kassian.

  88. Aron_S says:

    It feels like the Oilers are making brutal mistakes on giveaways and paying for all of them recently. On the other side, they’re getting no puck luck and making the other teams goalies look good recently.

    This analysis is obviously a lot of saw him bad and not stats based, but I’m getting worried they’re going to let that awesome division lead disappear faster than I thought. Ugh.

  89. Professor Q says:

    OmJo: Waiting for the replay on NHL.com but if it was TMac would have challenged it.

    From the replay I saw Grabner ran Talbot before the puck went over the line. The referees weren’t debating that but rather were concentrating on whether the net was off or not before the puck went over, which shouldn’t have been their concern.

    This happens to the Oilers constantly so it’s pretty frustrating to see time and time again and not be called. I’m fed up with it and it pisses me off. That’s all.

  90. Jethro Tull says:

    3 – 1, most dangerous lead in hockey….

  91. LadiesloveSmid says:

    think I’ll take the rest of the night off to match the oil

    notorious for beating the ducks, especially in Anaheim. Count me as a believer for 4 straight skid, and staples centre right after sees these playoff odds dying. Let’s go

  92. GMB3 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Unless your playing the Oilers. There are no dangerous leads then.

  93. GMB3 says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    relax. They haven’t played a bad game tonight. Even good teams go on losing skids and to my eye they’ve played well against the NYR twice and Pitts once. Both of them are top teams in the east.

  94. OmJo says:

    Professor Q: From the replay I saw Grabber ran Talbot before the puck went over the line. The referees weren’t debating that but rather were concentrating on whether the net was off or not before the puck went over, which shouldn’t have been their concern.

    This happens to the Oilers constantly so it’s pretty frustrating to see time and time again and not be called. I’m fed up with it and it pisses me off. Thats all.

    Rewinded back during the commercial break,

    To be fair, he didn’t run Talbot. Talbot fell/moved backwards while making the save, Grabner was between his legs when he scored but Talbot made the initial save, then fell backwards. Contact was minimal.

  95. LadiesloveSmid says:

    GMB3,

    there’s a point where you stop saying relax and get a little fed up, is it 9-9-1? we shall see

  96. Lowetide says:

    37-25 in Corsi after two, Edmonton has flagged badly in the last several games now now head out on the road to California and Texas. Every evening lately the team seems to get a goal from the McDavid line and maybe a Pitlick goal, but little else. Man, you cannot win games like that, no matter the opposition.

  97. StixMalone says:

    Jethro Tull:
    3 – 1, most dangerous lead in hockey….

    Only for the Oilers…..

  98. jake70 says:

    Lowetide:
    37-25 in Corsi after two, Edmonton has flagged badly in the last several games now now head out on the road to California and Texas. Every evening lately the team seems to get a goal from the McDavid line and maybe a Pitlick goal, but little else. Man, you cannot win games like that, no matter the opposition.

    McDavid injury away from bottom 3 if you ask me.

  99. Professor Q says:

    OmJo: Rewinded back during the commercial break,

    To be fair, he didn’t run Talbot. Talbot fell/moved backwards while making the save, Grabner was between his legs when he scored but Talbot made the initial save, then fell backwards. Contact was minimal.

    We’ll agree to disagree. I still feel the referees give opponents too much leeway when playing Edmonton.

  100. Zelepukin says:

    Lowetide:
    37-25 in Corsi after two, Edmonton has flagged badly in the last several games now now head out on the road to California and Texas. Every evening lately the team seems to get a goal from the McDavid line and maybe a Pitlick goal, but little else. Man, you cannot win games like that, no matter the opposition.

    The 2nd and 3rd lines have done next to nothing in generating legitimate scoring opportunities. It’s the same unsupported break-out to dump-in chase, lose possession or a d-man to winger chip dump that again amounts to little net presence.

  101. Gordies Elbow says:

    Reading through the comments, you wouldn’t think that Edmonton is outshooting them 27-19, outhitting them 26-9.

    Edmonton’s taking the play to them, and haven’t converted on it, yet.

  102. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    aren’t outchancing the rags, losing by score adjusted HDCF/SCF%

    take the moral victories where you can I guess, just not 3 straight before you go into Anaheim and LA

  103. Professor Q says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Gordies Elbow,

    aren’t outchancing the rags, losing by score adjusted HDCF/SCF%

    take the moral victories where you can I guess, just not 3 straight before you go into Anaheim and LA

    Both teams haven’t been playing well lately. Which means they’re sure to do well vs. Edmonton.

  104. Confused says:

    Big moments killing us, Nuge what were you thinking.

    But hope springs eternal, let’s go!

  105. Gordies Elbow says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    How many events in 2 periods of hockey? McDavid in front of the net in a single play could sway those metrics.

  106. OmJo says:

    Professor Q: We’ll agree to disagree. I still feel the referees give opponents too much leeway when playing Edmonton.

    Professor Q: We’ll agree to disagree. I still feel the referees give opponents too much leeway when playing Edmonton.

    Oh no, I agree with you on that. Reffing in this league is brutal, especially with this team.

    I just disagree with this specific example, but better to just agree to disagree, you’re right.

  107. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Professor Q: Both teams haven’t been playing well lately. Which means they’re sure to do well vs. Edmonton.

    EDM is 3-14 in the last 4 seasons against Anaheim, 3-14 in LA in the same time with 8 trips there without a win right now! I hope the oilers have climbed the ledge the Cali teams have fallen from

  108. jake70 says:

    What a shift by McDavid….unreal.

  109. Acumen says:

    Missed the first ten minutes of the game, but from what I’ve seen we’ve totally been carrying the play. They got a good break in the Grabner breakaway and our execution has been shite, but I count this as a very encouraging game.

  110. hags9k says:

    I’m sure not upset with the effort, NYR has a good looking team. Hopefully when we break through this scoring slump, they come in baskets for a while.

  111. Bank Shot says:

    hags9k:
    I’m sure not upset with the effort, NYR has a good looking team.Hopefully when we break through this scoring slump, they come in baskets for a while.

    Hopefully they break the slump of giving up too many goals at the same time.

    Oilers need Russell back. And for Puljujarvi to go away. Those are the two weakest links at the moment.

    Oh, and if Chiarelli could go back and get Weber for Hall+ that would be just dandy.

  112. Jethro Tull says:

    Acumen:
    Missed the first ten minutes of the game, but from what I’ve seen we’ve totally been carrying the play. They got a good break in the Grabner breakaway and our execution has been shite, but I count this as a very encouraging game.

    it’s called score effects, or more colloquially, closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.

  113. Oil2Oilers says:

    Bank Shot,

    I agree Russell is the weakest link 😉

  114. hags9k says:

    Maroon thinks the waffles Lucic has been packing for lunch taste phenomenal.

  115. Jethro Tull says:

    Benning has wheels.

  116. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Raanta has been rock solid tonight.

  117. GMB3 says:

    Pitlick doesn’t look bad on that line. Playing with confidence, but at the same time I’d probably rather have Eberle out there just because I have more faith he will bury a slick pass from McD

  118. Frank the dog says:

    OmJo:
    Oh no, I agree with you on that. Reffing in this league is brutal, especially with this team.

    I just disagree with this specific example, but better to just agree to disagree, you’re right.

    I think the reffing has a huge impact on the game. Non-calls not only tilt the ice in favour of the big market opponent, but they also increase the injuries on teams like ours. I am still sick about the things Khadri was allowed to get away with.
    I also have not yet seen the beast that Lucic was when he wore a Boston jersey.
    If you look at last year’s RE for the roster they had on opening day, they weren’t so bad at all. Much better than it turned out with all of those injuries. But the referring seems to be something no-one likes talking about, kind of like the elephant in the room so I will try to shut up on that subject.

  119. Jethro Tull says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    Raanta has been rock solid tonight.

    He’s been solid, but he hasn’t had to make one for sure goal save.

  120. OmJo says:

    Rags going to ice it for the last 8 mins of the game?

  121. OmJo says:

    McDavid is fast.

  122. OmJo says:

    OmJo:
    McDavid is fast.

    Mentally fast I mean.

  123. Acumen says:

    Really impressive games from 15 and 83 tonight. Pitlick in particular looks to be channelling a young Billy Guerin out there, great audition for the top line.

  124. Aron_S says:

    They could get one more to at least make this interesting. Then follow it with the awesome final two minute scramble where they hit a post and a crossbar and still lose.

    2-5-1 in their last 8 with tonight’s upcoming loss.

    *gnash teeth*

  125. OmJo says:

    Frank the dog: I think the reffing has a huge impact on the game. Non-calls not only tilt the ice in favour of the big market opponent, but they also increase the injuries on teams like ours. I am still sick about the things Khadri was allowed to get away with.
    I also have not yet seen the beast that Lucic was when he wore a Boston jersey.
    If you look at last year’s RE for the roster they had on opening day,they weren’t so bad at all. Much better than it turned out with all of those injuries. But the referring seems to be something no-one likes talking about, kind of like the elephant in the room so I will try to shut up on that subject.

    There’s a stigma with complaining about reffing, especially when you’re team loses so much. I get that. But reffing is still a league wide issue, not just an OIler issue. So we shouldn’t be afraid to talk about it. It’s downright horrendous at times.

    But it will always come off whiney to other teams fans’, just because. And the NHL likes to silence those within the league who talk about it, so that avenue isn’t available.

    As for Lucic, I’m not impressed. I didn’t like the signing when it happened (the contract, not the player) but he just hasn’t lived up to the hype.

  126. fuzzy muppet says:

    Maybe if they didnt fall behind mmediately every game it would be easier to win?

  127. OmJo says:

    Also, shame on the Oilers for wasting a year of JPs ELC for no reason whatsoever.

  128. OmJo says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    Maybe if they didnt fall behind mmediately every game it would be easier to win?

    Sounds crazy. but it just might work.

  129. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Aron_S,

    Ya its really too bad. They’re possessing but not dominating.

    Kind of disheartening but after the shitty start they deserve it.

    That Nuge brainfart so very bad

    Drai Drai Drai… Not impressed the last couple of games

  130. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Aron_S,

    don’t you gnash, some good games in that 2-5-1

  131. Pretendergast says:

    Them Rangers are suffocating, really good third frame, boring as it is.

  132. iwin76 says:

    I know we love the Nuge but he needs to be reminded he was a #1 OA. He’s too content to stop skating and take long wrist shots.

  133. Jethro Tull says:

    If we lose the the next couple of games, I could be cool with it, as long as they stop spotting leads in the opening moments of games.

  134. Professor Q says:

    Just too much.

  135. Klima's_Bucket says:

    OmJo,

    If you think the officiating was bad tonight, go watch the 2nd period of the Panthers/Islanders game yesterday. Laughable what the officials got away with in that game. They don’t have an easy job, but Lordy do they not make it easy on themselves with the way the NHL asks them to officiate games.

  136. Lowetide says:

    Credit to the Rangers, excellent team.

  137. Bank Shot says:

    Look at the Rangers. All five below the hash marks. They don’t respect Bennings muffin shots .

    Everytime the Oilers play it back to the poInt in the ozone the defense do something useless with it.

  138. Acumen says:

    Something needs to be done about the ice in the new barn. Honestly astounding that the only part of the facility that actually matters for the game was the one they cut corners on

  139. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Welp they aren’t as good as October but in five of the last seven it was brutally self-inflicted wounds doing them in.

    Moral victory but those starts have to change yesterday

  140. Pretendergast says:

    Can the NHL get a version of the key like in basketball? Honestly 5 guys below the hashmarks is just ridiculous.

  141. jake70 says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    Maybe if they didnt fall behind mmediately every game it would be easier to win?

    Spotting the other team an automatic 1 – 0 lead makes it difficult.

  142. StixMalone says:

    Not a very good November….

  143. Gerta Rauss says:

    The gales of November have come early

  144. Gret99zky says:

    9-6-1

    .500 at home

    No shame in losing to one of the best teams in the league.

    McDavid got a point.

    Talbot played well.

    We won the Corsi.

  145. Aron_S says:

    If the Oilers can win the California games this week I’ll feel a lot better about the recent losses to out of division teams, but if they give up points to California teams this could get tiresome in a hurry.

    Oh those Oilers.

  146. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Gret99zky:

    We won the Corsi.

    I can’t believe you’ve done this

  147. Klima's_Bucket says:

    jake70,

    Yeah, you gotta spot them two.
    Surely everyone knows the two goal lead is the worst lead in hockey!!

  148. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Credit to the Rangers, excellent team.

    Yes they are and they really only played one period.

  149. Jethro Tull says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: I can’t believe you’ve done this

    Nihilism is kind of….. disappointing. 🙂

  150. GMB3 says:

    Visually better

  151. GMB3 says:

    We should trade a few draft picks for that Raanta guy.

    At this rate Drai will be signing for a nice contract at least

  152. OmJo says:

    Pretendergast:
    Can the NHL get a version of the key like in basketball? Honestly 5 guys below the hashmarks is just ridiculous.

    If we get a player on the backend that can blast the puck on net, teams wouldn’t do that against us so much. Until then, why not clog up the front of the net when you’re shorthanded?

  153. Frank the dog says:

    A question to those who watched the game tonight (I had to work): What do you think the score would have been had the reefing been fair and equal? Call it ref adjusted scoring.
    Maybe someone with eagle eyes can do this count every game and then at least we can comfort ourselves with why we didn’t make the playoffs – again.
    For me, I deal with a great deal of ongoing stress in my present life situation – chronic pain, tons of hours, refuse to go onto opoids & all that, so my entertainment has to be things that make me happy. Which does not include watching the Oil on a losing streak.
    Thanks!

  154. Bank Shot says:

    Lowetide:
    Credit to the Rangers, excellent team.

    Meh.

    They’ve got 6 guys at 20% or better shooting percent. They’ve got 11 guys shooting at better than 14%.

    They are riding the mother of all hot streaks.

    I think they’re an above average team as usual, but I don’t see them being one of the league’s 5 best come playoff time.

  155. Jethro Tull says:

    Frank the dog,

    Sorry to hear about your pain, Frank.

    TBH, reffing was OK, and the Oilers played pretty well. I don’t know if the stats bear me out, but we dug ourselves a hole (again) and didn’t generate enough HDSC on Raanta. He was busy, but never flustered.

  156. OmJo says:

    Frank the dog:
    A question to those who watched the game tonight (I had to work): What do you think the score would have been had the reefing been fair and equal? Call it ref adjusted scoring.
    Maybe someone with eagle eyes can do this count every game and then at least we can comfort ourselves with why we didn’t make the playoffs – again.
    For me, I deal with a great deal of ongoing stress in my present life situation – chronic pain, tons of hours, refuse to go onto opoids & all that, so my entertainment has to be things that make me happy. Which does not include watching the Oil on a losing streak.
    Thanks!

    The Rags didn’t get a single PP today. We had two, and they scored on one of them. Refs weren’t the problem tonight.

  157. Confused says:

    Will the third line ever score, a break away and basically two open nets and nothing.

    It cannot continue forever

  158. JimmyV1965 says:

    Very mixed emotions about that game. I’ve watched a lot of Oiler games and I don’t recall seeing anything like this. Total domination for two periods and we can’t score. I don’t know how the Rangers had 27 shots on net. I don’t know how we only had 39. They were never in our end for two periods. I’m absolutely flabberghasted. Sure would be nice to have a player like Hall.

  159. treevojo says:

    After listening to Mclellans presser somebody better inform him that it’s not cool to call out Eb’s effort.

    I am pretty sure he must be trolling these parts

  160. Pouzar says:

    Oilers move into Top 10 of SVA Corgis.

  161. Professor Q says:

    OmJo: The Rags didn’t get a single PP today. We had two, and they scored on one of them. Refs weren’t the problem tonight.

    That’s not what I’d call an argument with evidence, though. Non-calls are non-calls, even if they’re not egregious.

  162. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Meh.

    They’ve got 6 guys at 20% or better shooting percent. They’ve got 11 guys shooting at better than 14%.

    They are riding the mother of all hot streaks.

    I think they’re an above average team as usual, but I don’t see them being one of the league’s 5 best come playoff time.

    Team wide they are shooting only 2% above their career sh%

  163. Woodguy says:

    Score and venue adjusted Expected Goals

    NYR 3.5
    EDM 2.8

    It’s not the number of shots, but where they are shot from

  164. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: Team wide they are shooting only 2% above their career sh%

    I’m not sure how you got there.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?db=201617&sit=5v5&disp=1&sortdir=DESC&sort=GFPCT

    Right now they are shooting 12.65% at even strength. Probably higher after tonight’s games.

    The only other team’s to break 10% at even strength in the last decade were Washington in 09/10 at 10.35% and Toronto (10.57%) which I discount because it was only half a season.

    The Rangers are shooting 3.5% higher at ES than the number 1 teams in ES shooting percentage in each of the last two seasons. Anaheim shot 9.83 in 13/14 and the Rangers are still basically 3% above that.

    The Rangers are 2% higher than any team in the last decade right now.

    There is no way this is anywhere close to sustainable. If the Rangers were to be shooting at their league leading 9% from last season instead of 12.65%, they would have scored 30 goals at ES this season instead of 42.

    That’s essentially a goal per game. That’s massive.

  165. frjohnk says:

    Bank Shot: I’m not sure how you got there.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?db=201617&sit=5v5&disp=1&sortdir=DESC&sort=GFPCT

    Right now they are shooting 12.65% at even strength. Probably higher after tonight’s games.

    The only other team’s to break 10% at even strength in the last decade were Washington in 09/10 at 10.35% and Toronto (10.57%) which I discount because it was only half a season.

    The Rangers are shooting 3.5% higher at ES than the number 1 teams in ES shooting percentage in each of the last two seasons. Anaheim shot 9.83 in 13/14 and the Rangers are still basically 3% above that.

    The Rangers are 2% higher than any team in the last decade right now.

    There is no way this is anywhere close to sustainable. If the Rangers were to be shooting at their league leading 9% from last season instead of 12.65%, they would have scored30 goals at ES this season instead of 42.

    That’s essentially agoal per game. That’s massive.

    Its close to a goal a game if we look at expected goals from Corisca. 5 on 5.
    XGFper 60
    NYR 2.8

    Actual GFper 60
    NYR 3.54

    A difference of 0.74 per 60.

    Thats YUGE! Biggest difference in the league.

    League average expected goals per 60 is 2.43.
    Oilers are at 2.57 (actual is 2.46)

    League average shooting % is 7.7%
    Rangers will come back down to earth.
    But by how much

    EDIT: and it doesnt really matter because we dont play them again this year, so when they do come back down to earth, we cant take advantage.

  166. Bag of Pucks says:

    Demotion off the first line and tough love in the post game presser for Eberle.

    TMac goes stick. Carrot nowhere in sight.

    Well played sir. Well played.

  167. Stelio Kontos says:

    gg boys. Can’t wait for June

  168. Pescador says:

    Woodguy: Team wide they are shooting only 2% above their career sh%

    And the Oilers over say the last ten games?
    If you or anyone knows the percentages and would like to share, it would be appreciated.
    The whole team looks snake bit at the moment.

  169. Pescador says:

    Really hard to stomach these last 3, they look like a good team that can’t buy a goal. Teams are running a 5 man trap on them & the Oilers have been really shitty at managing the puck.
    We have been excellent on the road this year and Anahiem is good not great.
    Oilers will be motivated, question is are they still feeling confident?

  170. frjohnk says:

    Russell goes down at game 11

    In those 5 games since , Oilers have given up 1st goal in 1st 2 minutes of the game 3 times.

    CoincidencE

    I think not.

    We need our best Dman back.

    I kid.

    Kind of.

  171. Gret99zky says:

    2-5-1 in last 8 games.

    Feels…familiar.

  172. JDï™ says:

    Gret99zky:
    2-5-1 in last 8 games.

    Feels…familiar.

    http://i.imgur.com/YODeAd6.gifv

  173. frjohnk says:

    Gret99zky: 2-5-1 in last 8 games

    Even with that, we are 1st in the Pacific. 2nd in the conference.

    But those points we had in the bank are almost all used up.

    This team is gonna have to go on another winning streak, ( 1 game would be fine right now) or this place could blow.

  174. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: I’m not sure how you got there.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?db=201617&sit=5v5&disp=1&sortdir=DESC&sort=GFPCT

    Right now they are shooting 12.65% at even strength. Probably higher after tonight’s games.

    The only other team’s to break 10% at even strength in the last decade were Washington in 09/10 at 10.35% and Toronto (10.57%) which I discount because it was only half a season.

    The Rangers are shooting 3.5% higher at ES than the number 1 teams in ES shooting percentage in each of the last two seasons. Anaheim shot 9.83 in 13/14 and the Rangers are still basically 3% above that.

    The Rangers are 2% higher than any team in the last decade right now.

    There is no way this is anywhere close to sustainable. If the Rangers were to be shooting at their league leading 9% from last season instead of 12.65%, they would have scored30 goals at ES this season instead of 42.

    That’s essentially agoal per game. That’s massive.

    I think the confusion is that I’m looking at All Situations SH%.

    I took every player on their roster and gave them their career SH% instead of this year’s SH%.

    (this was before last night’s game)

    It reduced their goals by 14 and gave them a 10.8% SH (all situations)

    They currently have a 13.86% All Situations SH%, so they are high by 3%, not 2% (oops).

    That said, a 10.8% SH% would have them in the top 3 almost every year except the lockout when 48gp isn’t enough for variance to flatten everything out.

    So their *baseline* SH% is above 10% and is almost 11%.

    That’s insane, but it seems that Gorton only hired players with high career SH%.

    He might be onto something.

  175. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    I posted this in the thread at 11:17. More info given the conversation:

    Here’s their 12 forward’s career SH%
    Hayes 14%
    Miller 12.1%
    Nash 12.3%
    Grabner 12.1%
    Vesey Rookie
    Kreider 12.2
    Zibanejad 10.7%
    Stepan 11%
    Zuccarello 12.2%
    Pirri 13.9%
    Buchnevich Rookie
    Fast 12.6%

    The cool thing is that if they all shot their career sh% they’d be shooting 10.8%, which historically would still be top 3 in the NHL for most years. (I gave Vesey and Buchnevich 12.2SH% as it was the median for the team in terms of career SH%, probably fair)

    Only 2 forwards with careers SH% under 12, and one is 10.7% while the other is 11%.

    That can’t be by accident.

    No checking forwards need apply apparently.

    Also, don’t let the Dmen shoot much.

  176. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Couple thoughts on last nights game

    1) Perfectly happy with the line juggling. Coach took out his anger on Eberle and based on his performance last night that is somewhat fair but by eye test Nuge, Drai, Poo and JP had worse nights. Starting to wonder whats up with Leon, tough string of at bats for this man lately and I think a few games in the AHL would be good for JP’s confidence, alas I don’t think that is in the cards until a bunch of bodies get back from the IR.

    2) Pitlick looked good in his audition but my discerning eye noticed a lot of standing around (or barring that a focus on staying to the outside) in the offensive zone after the Oilers gained possession. I’ll cut him slack given the McBlender but something to keep an eye on.

    3) I’m perfectly happy leaving these lines juggled for awhile. Pouliot has been playing dogs breakfast style offensive hockey lately, maybe a stint lower in the batting order and some crashing and banging lights a fire here.

    4) in relation to three, curious to see if the JP-Eberle-Nuge line sticks together (probably not given the handedness) I like the mentorship ability here but am not convinced JP has the confidence right now to make this line hum. I’d prefer Pouliot but see point three

    5) I don’t know if guys are still watching Eakins era tapes or something but someone needs to tell our defence that slap shots exits and can be used. Sooooo many muffin wrist shots were literally kicked away by shot blockers, too easy to read and not hard enough to get through

    6) The bad puck luck right now is a tough pill to swallow. I counted 4, five-alarm whiff’s last night (Maroon, McDavid, Looch and Drai I believe). If even one of those connects its a different game. I know that doesn’t matter in the end and I know the players on the bench are way more keenly aware of it than us fans but its gotta be taking a toll on confidence.

    7) Talbot played damn good again. He’s the goods, the very very goods

    8) I’m of two minds with Benning. I’m very excited for him as a prospect and these games he’s shown well but I’m getting flashes of a Nurse circa 2015 treatment. I feel kinda bad for the guy but then again maybe his partner is the drag (though I thought Sekera had a good to great game last night).

    9) I saw some very smart movement on the PP last night. I gripped the arm rest on my chair something fierce when Eberle setup Looch but oof that was a rough finish to a great play. I think this aspect is starting to gel though and this makes me happy.

    10) I’m cautiously optimistic that this California trip could be a shot in the arm. Despite the losses I thought the team moved around very well the last two games. Too much to the outside yes but they did control play for the last 40 minutes last night. I’ve been watching the Ducks and Kings and “at this moment” there are holes in those teams games. I don’t expect the Oilers to contend for the Presidents trophy but as Blainer has been noting and FRJohnK noted above a win or two this week opens up a gap in the Pacific and really thats all we should be caring about standings wise at this point. I also think the Oilers hybrid complexion bodes well against Pacific division teams but alas we have too small of a sample size for me to be more than optimistic that this is the case. These next two games are a big test for Chia and TMac’s vision of how this team should be structured. Here’s hoping they kick out the jams.

    11) Don’t lose faith folks! There are lots of good things happening on the ice right now for this team and they are still shorthanded due to injuries. If they stop spotting teams a one goal lead (seriously this is the issue over the last 7 games way more so than anything else) I’m confident in their ability to battle any team. Getting Russel back and having the optionality of players like Hendricks, Pakarinen and Cagguila could be a real shot in the arm. Wishing those men speedy recoveries here, the team could use you all!

    12) Still a very excited fan here! Lots of froth in the NHL right now. The West looks to be a bit of a softer beast this year and while that probably changes as we roll into the Winter banked points can be huge. Keep cheering for this team and don’t get too down right now. A cold spell was inevitable but they have an opportunity to break out of it and open some day light in their division.

    Go Oilers Go!

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