LAKE HURON ROLLS, SUPERIOR SINGS

I have maintained through summer and fall that Peter Chiarelli made a curious bet. After trading Taylor Hall, the team had to turn north—and that should have resulted in a more balanced roster. As this blog has suggested throughout the piece, the journey to balance still has some stops to make. The Rangers did more—and are having more success—to achieve balance last summer.

Last night was a case of a much better team establishing a lead and then coasting home. If you came to this blog this morning for a rage in the cage on the Nuge or other, you are about to be disappointed. If you came here wondering why management stopped adding useful parts last summer, you are probably going to like today’s post.

THE GALES OF NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2
  • Oilers in November 2016: 2-4-1 goal differential -6
  • Oilers after 16, 2015: 6-10-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers after 16, 2016: 9-6-1, goal differential +4

Ah damn. It is quite painful to watch this thing fade, and with more tough games ahead this losing streak could destroy the good start and force the team down to the second division with Calgary and Vancouver. The problems are identifiable, but the solutions will cost assets—and I wonder if Peter Chiarelli is willing to make those sacrifices at this point in the season. HDSC 19-19.

The November records season over season are beginning to resemble each other, and our line in the sand (15 points in 15 games) has water coming in (five points in seven games).

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

defense-last-night

  • This is Natural Stat Trick, HockeyStats.ca and NHL.com.
  • These are insane numbers, but score effects took over early in this game (we haven’t seen it much) and the Rangers coasted home. Edmonton had a lot of Corgi’s but the HDSC totals were even on the night. NYR are a much better team than Edmonton, and the early season solution (97 posting more than one point, Talbot shutting the door) doesn’t rhyme these days.
  • One of the positives we can take away is that the Sekera—Benning pairing can do some things offensively. I am really warming up to the rookie’s play and Sekera had one of  his best nights. I imagine we see Benning in Bakersfield in the next four weeks and he should tear the cover off the ball at that level. The rookie makes plenty of good decisions (while also being a rookie who should probably be in the AHL).
  • Larsson played a little with Sekera and a little with Nurse, after the coach split up the Swedish duo. Klefbom did the same and even spent a minute with Benning. Klef and Larsson had a devil of a time with the Zibanejad—Miller—Zuccarello line (2-12) and the HDSCs favored Manhattan when Oscar was on the ice.
  • Don’t be fooled by the numbers above, deployment is a big part of the game and impacts results. Oscar Klefbom is a smart, effective and talented blue with tremendous wheels. He lacks experience, and on a deeper team maybe he could play second pair. However, as we will discuss later, that may not be the gap some believe it to be with this Oilers team.
  • Nurse—Gryba were -2 on the night and the speedy Rangers had a fairly easy time against the pairing. PCs formula for size mixed with speed might have to rest a guy like 62 for the next track meet.
  • Sekera had the only goal on the night and the only point by a defender.
  • Cam Talbot didn’t let in a softie and he did not stone his former team either. You would have to have a real hate on for goalies to blame him for this game.
  • Brandon Davidson needs to get back on this roster. Soon.

FORWARDS LAST NIGHT

forwards-no13

  • Maroon—McDavid—Pitlick went 21-3 in 12:29, that is going to get you another game or two on the top line, Mr. Pitlick. The reason he probably doesn’t stay there is that point blank shot he fumbled, but there is historical evidence for this kind of thing working out for extended periods. An effective, inexpensive winger on the 97 line can be bettered only by two effective, inexpensive wingers on the 97 line. Brett Callighen got his start at Centennial College.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle were just 6-6 together, but I am hopeful we see this line more on the road trip. There was magic in this group in the before time, and it is vital they get going again. I love the Nuge’s game, but he made a dreadful mistake last night and needs to clean that up.
  • Lucic—Draisaitl—Kassian were 8-2 in about six minutes, we could see them again. Kassian was very good to my eye last night, added something to this line. Lucic had five shots and at least two dandy chances to my eye, if he can do that every night the 5×5 offense will come.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi may need a week or so in Bakersfield to get back to previous levels, I thought he faded last night. If JP is getting looks you keep him, but that was not the case last night.

lucic-capture-2

FORWARDS 5X5/60

  1. Connor McDavid 2.71
  2. Tyler Pitlick 2.33
  3. Patrick Maroon 2.17
  4. Jordan Eberle 2.03
  5. Mark Letestu 1.68
  6. Zack Kassian 1.63
  7. Anton Lander 1.55
  8. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.44
  9. Benoit Pouliot 1.27
  10. Leon Draisaitl 1.14
  11. Milan Lucic 1.03
  12. Anton Slepyshev 1.00
  13. Jesse Puljujarvi 0.91

This is a startling set of numbers. The first thing I look at when assessing forwards is this number—if you have six guys at 2.00/60 you can make it go, but this list is more Pakleds than Captain Pickard. Seriously, this is ghastly, pairings like Milan Lucic—Leon Draisaitl and Benoit Pouliot—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should be able to break 1.50/60 without getting their hair wet. If you are looking for one reason this thing is off the rails, ask yourself if the RWs on these two lines are proven and substantial. And then we can talk about leaving the station unbalanced. Astounding bet. Truly. Oh, and well done Tyler Pitlick! That 18.52 shooting percentage may not stay, but if you play enough with McDavid keeping it at 12 could be in the cards! Also, McDavid has only 34 5×5 shots in 16 games, that number needs to be higher.

CORSI REL, BLUE

  1. Matt Benning 6.3
  2. Eric Gryba 1.5
  3. Darnell Nurse 1.1
  4. Oscar Klefbom 0.4
  5. Adam Larsson -0.6
  6. Andrej Sekera -1.6
  7. Kris Russell -7.2

Okay. We need to talk. I absolutely believe Matt Benning would do well to spend some time in the minors, in fact for me the moment Brandon Davidson gets healthy that needs to be the play. That said, Sekera—Benning now has a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 53.3 and are performing well.

How much of lefty-righty do we assign to this situation? Sekera—Russell is 45.6 Corsi for 5×5 percentage, will Sekera—Davidson be substantially better? A year ago that tandem was 46.2 in 76 minutes, are we sure they will be better than Sekera—Benning? Absolutely certain? I don’t have an answer, but that is a good question.

DEFENSIVE ZONE FACEOFFS, BLUE

  1. Kriss Russell 57/6
  2. Adam Larsson 90/6
  3. Oscar Klefbom 82/5
  4. Andrej Sekera 79/5
  5. Darnell Nurse 65/4
  6. Eric Gryba 52/4
  7. Matt Benning 19/3

Someone asked the other day why I don’t post percentages anymore. Well, there are two reasons. First, there is some evidence suggesting defensive-zone faceoffs have lest impact on possession numbers than we thought they did in the before time. I am not certain on that premise, and would gladly publish percentages, but there is a massive gap in opinion about how to express zone starts. So instead of giving you false or misleading information (I am uncertain about the best way to express it), you get the hard numbers and that Kris Russell averaged about six defensive ZSs in his 11 games and that Darnell Nurse is averaging 4 DZSs in his 16 games. I rounded the numbers up or down, and you can see there isn’t a tremendous gap or anything. Seems Russell was deployed quite a bit in this area compared to his roster spot, but that is a guess.

benning-uofa-capture

QUAL COMP

In a way, we are getting better information now on qual comp, but it does require us to use the brain God gave us. NaturalStattrick gives it all away with specific 5×5 TOI for each player against all opponents, so we can dig in there and get an idea about who is facing whom. For our purposes today, I am going to list defensemen in my assumed order (tough to easy) and include both Flames and Rangers forwards (both clubs have played Edmonton twice).

  1. Oscar Klefbom—Mats Zuccarello, Kris Versteeg, Jesper Fast, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Derek Stepan.
  2. Adam Larsson—Mats Zuccarello, Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Jesper Fast, Kris Versteeg, Rick Nash.
  3. Andrej Sekera—JT Miller, Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad, Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Versteeg, Sean Monahan.
  4. Darnell Nurse—Mats Zuccarello, Michael Grabner, Derek Stepan, Matt Tkachuk, Troy Brouwer, Sam Bennett.

Eric Gryba, Kris Russell and Matt Benning didn’t play both teams twice, so I have excluded them from our look here. I think the exercise is worthwhile, because (for me) it shows two things: Qual Comp is a big part of the game, and parsing it correctly is an art or a science—with most of us badly misinformed.

I look at these numbers (and remember this is just two teams, Edmonton has played each of them twice) and see that Sekera and the top pairing have been facing very similar competition. Conclusions? Well, if this was the case across many teams, the logical conclusion we would draw is that Todd McLellan is using each of his top two pairings somewhat equally against the other team’s best forwards. Darnell Nurse, representing the third pairing, gets a lesser group—although you can see he faced tough Rangers (identifying the soft parade on that Rangers team is difficult) throughout.

The advanced stats group is going through this area now and mowing down a lot of the past, but for me Qual Comp (and Corsi Rel) remain vital glimpses into the overall for defensemen. We continue the journey, but the information discussed years ago on MC79hockey and Irreverent Oil still speaks to me. Rock on with your bad selves, and I await the power of the G Money work (and I say that with respect, he seems to be on to something), but based on all I value it is safe to say Edmonton has three top pairing defenders and then the rest—and the rest (Russell, Nurse, Gryba, Benning) have been performing in varied roles with the usual amount of success and failure. I keep coming back to Benning, though. Interesting player.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show, gets underway at 10 and the hits don’t stop coming! TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Rangers fly, Oilers fall, plus Crosby on fire.
  • Derek Taylor TSN Details on the CFL. What a fantastic football weekend.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. NFL weekend had a lot of good matchups, plus Oilers on their first extended losing streak of the year.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue plus The SuperFan. What to make of this defense, and Matt Benning and his current role.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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149 Responses to "LAKE HURON ROLLS, SUPERIOR SINGS"

  1. PhrankLee says:

    Great write up, LT.

    I agree the wind in the wires make a tattletale sound.

  2. McSorley33 says:

    Wow…..those 5×5/60 numbers are embarrassing for some forwards.

    If we did not have a horse shoe at the draft ….RNH would be our 1C.

    I almost think we are missing a river pusher at forward….

  3. Confused says:

    Big week ahead — go oilers. Lets start hitting the back of the net and getting the back-checking correct.

    Looking for a sweep.

  4. Aitch says:

    If the team keeps getting shots like they did this weekend, then things will work itself out. They’re not getting bounces around the net right now. They’re not cashing on their Grade A chances. We know that both of those things will turn around. The law of averages and all.

    The poor starts are killing the team right now, but the story of “a team/line isn’t ready to play” is such a waste of air. Nobody blames a goal that’s scored later in the game and says the team/player wasn’t ready. But let in a goal early and all we hear is the team wasn’t ready. How about, “I screwed up” or “we got a bad break” or “the other team is trying too.” I’m sick of the “not ready” line. It’s lazy journalism and it’s an easy cliche for the players to use. If you’re not ready to play a game of hockey as a professional, you need to retire.

  5. Durag says:

    Searching for a silver lining on a Monday morning – but maybe we can take some solace in the fact that 3 of these 4 losses have come against Pittsburgh and NYR, two very good eastern teams with a style that the Oilers don’t match up well against. I don’t really see an analogue for those teams in the West, and certainly not in the Pacific.

    Chiarelli built this team to survive the California road trips, so I’m very interested to see how the next two games play out. If we can find 5 points in the next 5 games, there’s always the possibility of sweeping the Arizona home and home and the Leafs at home to salvage November!

  6. dustrock says:

    Wonder if teams are scouting Klefbom. He’s had a rough stretch.

    And your underlined players – RNH, Pou, Drai and Lucic are a large part of the reason for this team’s struggles.

    We’re at small sample size, but that Lucic contract sure doesn’t look awesome right now.

  7. flyfish1168 says:

    Watching the game last evening makes me wonder if the game is changing away from the big heavy teams. The over all speed of the game seems to have moved up another level. Last nights game exposed some of our big heavy players. The Canadians, Penguins and Rangers seem like 3 of the faster teams all coming from the eastern conference. The California teams are still heavy but not as fast from what I have seen. So we probably match up a little better. JMHO

  8. Bag of Pucks says:

    KBom and Larsson are looking more shaky lately. Big load they’re carrying of late. Plug in Davidson and Russell when they’re healthy, take out Benning and Gryba, and you should have significantly more stability on the back end.

    During the win streak, it seems the Fs were consistently coming back deep to support the D and provide an achievable breakout pass. That gap seems to have widened during Nov and I think this is one of the ‘bad habits’ that creeps into this club’s game and drives TMac to distraction.

    Eberle is an interesting case study on this. I do think Eberle has been making a greater effort on the back check at TMac’s behest, but his offensive production has suffered. Would imagine it’s hard enough for Jordan to keep up with Connor on the breakout, nevermind when he’s starting from the defensive dot. So, human nature being what it is, Ebs starts to gravitate back to old habits (ie cheat for O). TMac sees this, and as a result, the stick comes out. This is survival 101 for the HC. Everyone has to buyin to the 200ft game and by my eye, some of the guys are starting to drift on their commitment to coming back hard in the D zone. So, you send a high profile message.

    This is why I think Pitlick or JP make a better potential fit for McDavid. They have the speed to keep up with Connor (as much as that’s possible), even from a deep start. RNH needs a finisher and Ebs needs a C that can slow the game down, not a C that forces a track meet every shift.

    Pitlick looks relentless on the puck right now. This might be fun to watch. Could be a real breakout season for Tyler.

  9. barry.moore23 says:

    The bantam house league team that I coach lost, my adult league team lost and finished last in our division, Oilers lost …… The good news is my wife and cats love me and I have a job to go to today. And Lowetide. Life is good. Peace, everyone.

  10. kinger_OIL says:

    – Sometimes, fancy stats blind us or obscure reality. Edmonton is currently 7th in goals scored, one goal behind Pittsburgh

    – Last year, we were 25th in the league.

    – So we have gone from a terrible offensive team, to amongst the best.

    – I know it’s a small sample size this year to date, but that’s the reality: We are a better offensive team by far, and we are a better defensive team, by far.

    – Our Goal differential last year was 2nd worste in the league: this year we are 8th best

    – So I don’t really get the whole “lack of balance” thing. We score more goals, we let in less.

    – Sure some guys are struggling after 15 games, and some are scoring at higher pace: bottom line this team is way more “balanced” than at anytime in a decade.

    – And the reason for that balance is that Hall was replaced with Lucic and a defender. They both have scored 5 goals this year. And Adam Larsson has improved our D, and we have depth so that Russel/Benning/Davidson can play, Klef is healthy and Nurse stays on 3rd pairing.

    – Luck plays a huge part of any single game outcome in NHL. We played a little above our ability for a bunch of games, and now we struggle. I suspect we will be around a .500 team with this roster, maybe higher when Davidson get back.

    – Don’t get why people are upset.

  11. JDï™ says:

    This team has to put 15 points behind them this month, else the main hatchway will likely cave in.

  12. OF17 says:

    One thing I’ve noticed is that Adam Larsson isn’t playing up to his Jersey levels yet. I think he’s deferring to Klefbom too much, allowing him to wheel and start the breakouts rather than making the passes himself. In Jersey, Larsson essentially played the Klefbom role on his pairing as main puck mover, and he did quite well at it. Breakout passes are one of his biggest strengths. But so far, maybe he’s just not comfortable yet, he and Klefbom haven’t found the balance yet, which means the pairing should be more effective as time goes on. It’ll utilize Larsson’s strengths better and draw some of the attention from Klefbom, which should make his game more effective. Right now it’s fairly obvious to the opposition which side of the ice the breakouts will be coming from, but both guys have the ability to carry the load in that department.

    I’m also wondering if Benning makes losing Davidson to expansion the better play as well. Davidson is obviously a beauty and one of my favorite players, but Benning plays a pretty similar game, and with the L-R balance in mind and how much it would hurt to lose a Pouliot or Maroon, running Nurse-Benning as a 3rd pair next year might be better for the team than hurting the forwards more. I’ve certainly been impressed with Benning. He’s being asked to do too much, but he’s performing pretty darn well at it, and he has a tantalizingly well rounded and skilled game.

  13. Woogie63 says:

    It feels like to club is focussed on a new culture;

    Hall is out
    Practice after the Buffalo game
    Eberle getting called out last night.

    TMac should look at his decision to play JP ahead of Slepyshev. imo Slepyshev is playing better than JP and should be in the line-up to give us a better chance to win.

  14. John Chambers says:

    barry.moore23:
    The bantam house league team that I coach lost, my adult league team lost and finished last in our division, Oilers lost …… The good news is my wife and cats love me and I have a job to go to today. And Lowetide. Life is good. Peace, everyone.

    I know this routine well. Include in it that the little one woke up twice, the cat vomited, and there’s snow in the driveway that your wife is going to want you to address.

    But there’s coffee and Lowtide, and the morning delivers peace again.

  15. dustrock says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Well, it was an amazing start. Given the overall QoC, hard to believe they are going to stay at those scoring levels.

    You’re saying we went from being a terrible team and a terrible scoring team to one of the best. That’s true, in the first 10 games.

    We’ve been saying don’t make any strong statements before 20 games at the very least. The 2 mini-slumps in the last couple of weeks confirm why.

  16. Dustylegnd says:

    dustrock,

    The frightening thing about Lucic is we are getting exactly what we paid for, 20 goals and 55 points and he is right on pace. He has always struggled with skating and the league has moved towards speed and youth….when he makes glaring mistakes like a shit backcheck and fails to box out the house, his veteran mistake becomes glaring.

    On the positive side, only 6.75 years remain on his contract…..Hall for Larsson and Lucic indeed Chia!

  17. Boil-in-the-Oil says:

    It drives me a little bit crazy when I see Lucic go to the front of the net to be the giant screen on the goalie, only to see him stand to the side, looking for a rebound. Screen the damn goalie. We are firing far too many unscreened shots…goalies generally stop shots they can see.

  18. kinger_OIL says:

    dustrock,

    – Well actually what I’m saying is that we weren’t as good as that streak in the beginning

    – But when you look at the fancy stats 5×5 and conclude: “this team isn’t balanced”, I look at where we are in terms of offense and defense and say: “this team is a lot more balanced than in the last 10 years”

    – I doubt we are top-8 scoring or Goal Differential at end of year, but I also doubt we go back to bottom-5. This is a better, more balanced team full-stop.

    – Yes it’s only 15 games: but we aren’t struggling offensively as a team. Some players are.

  19. who says:

    Don’t really see a big problem here. Another game that they could have just as easily won. Couple of big mistakes by veteran players is probably the most concerning. One more top 4 right shot dman is still the most pressing need but if everyone is healthy their top six is fine. Gryba gets exposed by quick teams like the Rangers and Benning, while promising, probably needs at least half a season in the minors.
    I also don’t really see an issue at right wing. To me, they have one proven scorer, (who is not really scoring), in Eberle and 4 guys who basically bring the same skill set right now.
    We all think that JP will evolve into a first line winger but he could also probably use some time in the minors. Kassian and Pitlick are basically the same player and Slep may have more puck skills and less physical play in his game. Hasn’t really played enough for me to get a feel.
    My point is that none of these 4 wingers is a proven top six forward but I don’t think guys like Versteeg, Paranteau, etc would be any better. I think TMac is feeling this out, waiting for someone to step up, and it looks like Pitlick already has. He seems to be scoring like a top six guy right now. I think they should send JP down and let the other 3 figure it out for the first half of the season and then re-evaluate. Feels like we are burning a year of JP without getting anything for it.

  20. Drew says:

    Just returned from a week in Houston so have not followed along as much as usual. I see this morning the NJ Devils are ahead of the Oiler’s in the league standings?

    How do they do this with the dressing room cancer leading the team in scoring I ask??? (sarcasm detector on)

    Carry on.

  21. Dustylegnd says:

    Drew,

    Playing in a tougher conference on a team that can’t score and who don’t seem to miss their “best” defencemen. 5 x 5/60 monsters who hate losing and have an intolerance for incompetent yet arrogant coaches are greatly undervalued in this league apparently.

  22. Fog of Warts says:

    Someone asked the other day why I don’t post percentages anymore

    Well, I had stopped reading percentages some time ago as counterproductive. The new system works great for me.

  23. dustrock says:

    kinger_OIL:
    dustrock,

    – Well actually what I’m saying is that we weren’t as good as that streak in the beginning

    – But when you look at the fancy stats 5×5 and conclude: “this team isn’t balanced”, I look at where we are in terms of offense and defense and say: “this team is a lot more balanced than in the last 10 years”

    – I doubt we are top-8 scoring or Goal Differential at end of year, but I also doubt we go back to bottom-5.This is a better, more balanced team full-stop.

    – Yes it’s only 15 games: but we aren’t struggling offensively as a team.Some players are.

    Sorry, misread your post then.

    I agree with that statement. The Oilers are probably a mediocre team now, and that’s a huge improvement.

  24. kinger_OIL says:

    dustrock: Sorry, misread your post then.

    I agree with that statement.The Oilers are probably a mediocre team now, and that’s a huge improvement.

    – yup: a mediocre balanced team

    – I think LT’s point all along is you don’t trade Hall, just to become mediocre balanced (even though I disagree, I think that’s the prevailing wisdom)

  25. treevojo says:

    OILERS WIN

    BEEVIS ” uhuhuhuhhuhu hey BUTT-HEAD uhuhuhuhuhu did you see what Hall did tonight”

    OILERS LOSE

    BUTT-HEAD “uhuhuhuhuhuhu hey BEEVIS uhhhuhujuhuhu did you see what Hall did tonight”

  26. Chachi says:

    treevojo:
    OILERS WIN

    BEEVIS ” uhuhuhuhhuhu hey BUTT-HEAD uhuhuhuhuhu did you see what Hall did tonight”

    OILERS LOSE

    BUTT-HEAD “uhuhuhuhuhuhu hey BEEVIS uhhhuhujuhuhu did you see what Hall did tonight”

    That sums it up perfectly.

  27. blainer says:

    It seems like we are running into hot goaltenders lately. Jeebus our goalie has to steal a couple for us this week.

    We backed ourselves into a corner for this month. We have to get to 500 for the month. Still very optimistic as IMO we haven’t been playing real bad.

    We need Drai JP and Nuge to start scoring NOW !!

  28. Woodguy says:

    Mark Letestu 1.68
    Zack Kassian 1.63
    Anton Lander 1.55
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.44
    Benoit Pouliot 1.27
    Leon Draisaitl 1.14
    Milan Lucic 1.03
    Anton Slepyshev 1.00
    Jesse Puljujarvi 0.91

    The first thing I look at when assessing forwards is this number—if you have six guys at 2.00/60 you can make it go, but this list is more Pakleds than Captain Pickard

    So you’re saying they need someone to make them go?

  29. Dominoiler says:

    who:
    I don’t think guys like Versteeg, Paranteau, etc would be any better.

    I disagree.. Pitlick has been great, but don’t you think Tmac would like to have another card to play, one that could possibly fill a top 6 skill role?.. if Pitlick is on the top line, don’t get me wrong -he’s been great, then Versteeg could have definitely stuck around and been eating top 6 lunches while Pulj could have been granted some dang cover by now.. instead, no options, just struggles..

    Nice to see Kass have a good game.. glad to have him back in the lineup.. the oil were fairly soft last night.. the odd nurse hit and that’s it, to my eye.. chasing the play a fair bit, nailed it LT, rangers were handgun running when they had the puck..

  30. Woodguy says:

    All numbers score and venue adjusted

    First 5 games
    PDO 1012
    SCF% 56.95%
    5-0-0

    2nd 5 games
    PDO 1019
    SCF% 53.73
    3-1-1

    Last 6 games
    PDO 974
    SCF% 41.13%
    1-4-1

    The PDO Gords giveth and the PDO Gords taketh away. As it has always been and shall ever be.

    My big concern is the over 10% drop in Scoring Chance share.

    That 41.3% is an ugly number and I’ll dig deeper later to see if its more on the FOR or AGAINST side.

  31. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy:
    Mark Letestu 1.68
    Zack Kassian 1.63
    Anton Lander 1.55
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.44
    Benoit Pouliot 1.27
    Leon Draisaitl 1.14
    Milan Lucic 1.03
    Anton Slepyshev 1.00
    Jesse Puljujarvi 0.91


    The first thing I look at when assessing forwards is this number—if you have six guys at 2.00/60 you can make it go, but this list is more Pakleds than Captain Pickard

    So you’re saying they need someone to make them go?

    So you’re saying we should send them the blind guy?

  32. Woodguy says:

    Was nice to see McLellan take my advice on the lines. 🙂

    I know the score effects were running rampant but the 21-3 in 12:29 for 19-97-15 translates to a CF/60 of just under 101.

    101.

    There are usually ~110 corsi events TOTAL in 60 minutes.

    That number is just insane and I want to see what these guys would rock long term.

    Also gets 14 to 93’s wing, but I don’t understand McLellan putting 98 on the LW at all.

    I don’t watch the game as close as he does, but 67 seemed fine and skated well, but got the shaft down to play with 55-51.

    Be interesting to see what the lines are at practice.

    Are they practicing before they fly today?

  33. Woodguy says:

    Jethro Tull: So you’re saying we should send them the blind guy?

    If he can make them go, I’m all for it!

    “Can’t see shit Captain”

  34. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy:
    Mark Letestu 1.68
    Zack Kassian 1.63
    Anton Lander 1.55
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.44
    Benoit Pouliot 1.27
    Leon Draisaitl 1.14
    Milan Lucic 1.03
    Anton Slepyshev 1.00
    Jesse Puljujarvi 0.91


    The first thing I look at when assessing forwards is this number—if you have six guys at 2.00/60 you can make it go, but this list is more Pakleds than Captain Pickard

    So you’re saying they need someone to make them go?

    – So the 5×5/60 is badish on 15 games for those players highlighted.

    – We are 8th in total goals scored, with a mediocre PP%, which is currently 16th.

    – Scoring is not currently an issue. Sure some of these guys after 15 games are lowish.

  35. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Was nice to see McLellan take my advice on the lines.🙂

    I know the score effects were running rampant but the 21-3 in 12:29 for 19-97-15 translates to a CF/60 of just under 101.

    101.

    There are usually ~110 corsi events TOTAL in 60 minutes.

    That number is just insane and I want to see what these guys would rock long term.

    Also gets 14 to 93’s wing, but I don’t understand McLellan putting 98 on the LW at all.

    I don’t watch the game as close as he does, but 67 seemed fine and skated well, but got the shaft down to play with 55-51.

    Be interesting to see what the lines are at practice.

    Are they practicing before they fly today?

    Pitlick as an option (no disrespect meant to the player) highlights how much work that needed to be done in summer was set aside in hopes of dreams coming true.

  36. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy:
    Was nice to see McLellan take my advice on the lines.

    I know the score effects were running rampant but the 21-3 in 12:29 for 19-97-15 translates to a CF/60 of just under 101.

    101.

    There are usually ~110 corsi events TOTAL in 60 minutes.

    That number is just insane and I want to see what these guys would rock long term.

    Also gets 14 to 93’s wing, but I don’t understand McLellan putting 98 on the LW at all.

    I don’t watch the game as close as he does, but 67 seemed fine and skated well, but got the shaft down to play with 55-51.

    Be interesting to see what the lines are at practice.

    Are they practicing before they fly today?

    In your opinion, what could we expect to see if it wasn’t score effects and just outplaying the opposition but losing?

    I suspect a clear advantage in HDSC with low PDO and high SV% for the opposition goalie.

    In particular, the volume of HDSC with the high SV% can break a team.

  37. Pouzar says:

    Corgis up.
    High Danger Scoring chances down.

    hmmmm

  38. Bruce Wayne says:

    treevojo:
    OILERS WIN

    BEEVIS ” uhuhuhuhhuhu hey BUTT-HEAD uhuhuhuhuhu did you see what Hall did tonight”

    OILERS LOSE

    BUTT-HEAD “uhuhuhuhuhuhu hey BEEVIS uhhhuhujuhuhu did you see what Hall did tonight”

    Since you asked. Here are some number for Taylor Hall.

    SCF% 58
    HDSCF% 65 (that number is sky high)
    Shots on goal: 60!

    Milan Lucic:
    SCF% 52
    HDSCF%51

    Adam Larsson:
    SCF%: 47
    HDSCF% 50

    Two of these guys get to play with the best player in the world. The other is Taylor Hall, whose team has a better record than the Oilers despite a roster of mediocrities, outside of Hall and Schneider. Their team SCF% is below 50 percent despite Hall’s awesome number.

    Swapping Lucic and Larsson for Hall was ludicrous at the time and has turned out worse than expected.

  39. frjohnk says:

    kinger_OIL: – So the 5×5/60 is badish on 15 games for those players highlighted.

    – We are 8th in total goals scored, with a mediocre PP%, which is currently 16th.

    – Scoring is not currently an issue.Sure some of these guys after 15 games are lowish.

    16 goals in the last 8 games.

    2-5-1 in those games.

    Scoring is currently an issue.

  40. Drew says:

    Bruce Wayne: Since you asked.Here are some number for Taylor Hall.

    SCF% 58
    HDSCF% 65 (that number is sky high)
    Shots on goal: 60!

    Milan Lucic:
    SCF% 52
    HDSCF%51

    Adam Larsson:
    SCF%: 47
    HDSCF% 50

    Two of these guys get to play with the best player in the world.The other is Taylor Hall, whose team has a better record than the Oilers despite a roster of mediocrities, outside of Hall and Schneider.Their team SCF% is below 50 percent despite Hall’s awesome number.

    Swapping Lucic and Larsson for Hall was ludicrous at the time and has turned out worse than expected.

    not sure here… are you beavis or butt-head? 🙂

  41. Bruce Wayne says:

    More fun Hall facts.

    HDSC when Hall is on the ice is 39 for and 21 against.

    When he is not on the ice for the Devils, it is 50 for and 60 against.

    It turns out that having Taylor Hall on the ice limits high danger chances. Who knew?

  42. treevojo says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Uhuhuhuhuhuhuh ok BRUCE WAYNE

    TP FOR MY BUNGHOLIO

  43. StixMalone says:

    The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
    Of the big lake they called ‘gitche gumee’
    The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
    When the skies of November turn gloomy
    With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more
    Than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty
    That good ship and crew was a bone to be chewed
    When the gales of November came early……

    Not a November to remember….

  44. Drew says:

    Bruce Wayne: Since you asked.Here are some number for Taylor Hall.

    SCF% 58
    HDSCF% 65 (that number is sky high)
    Shots on goal: 60!

    Milan Lucic:
    SCF% 52
    HDSCF%51

    Adam Larsson:
    SCF%: 47
    HDSCF% 50

    Two of these guys get to play with the best player in the world.The other is Taylor Hall, whose team has a better record than the Oilers despite a roster of mediocrities, outside of Hall and Schneider.Their team SCF% is below 50 percent despite Hall’s awesome number.

    Swapping Lucic and Larsson for Hall was ludicrous at the time and has turned out worse than expected.

    I agree was bad then and is bad now.

    I am not sure how you knew this at the time, you know you are not a professional hockey man and you really don’t know jack? (Ok i know i am fanning the flames a little here)

    I appreciate the facts added to the discussion.

  45. Scungilli says:

    Until the team can consistently win these downs will make me nervous. As long as they keep improving as a team and some kind of plan seems to come together with offense I’ll be happy. Right now the attack seems disorganized, it’s probably factoring in to the back checking issues.

    Another thing to remember is it’s early games and things are more open. As the season goes on and teams tighten up and the refs let more go players like Lucic show their worth. The best players can always get it done, but there are a lot of players that are doing well now that will fade off when the room to play starts disappearing. Let’s hope our guys can fight through it.

  46. Pouzar says:

    If after last season someone would have told you the Oilers would be in 1st place in the Pacific and ranked 10th in CF% SVA on Nov 14 I think the nerds and see-gooders would have taken it.

  47. --hudson-- says:

    Didn’t watch the whole game last night, but the few minutes I saw, the Oilers would setup in the offensive zone and pass it around the perimeter until the point shot was open. This probably took at least 5 seconds and by then the Rangers had their 6 goalies in place.

    When I watch the Sharks play, they are putting pucks toward the net ASAP. Granted the quality of the shot may not be high (the velocity is down or the placement is off) but they’re making the goalie stop the puck. Similar to the goal Maroon scored in NYI off the Benning wrist shot.

    Anybody else see it the same way? (or maybe I watched the wrong 5 minutes of the game)

  48. prefonmich says:

    Two ways of viewing last night’s game.
    Through the positive lens: Oilers outshot rangers, had some great chances they didn’t bury, McDavid still flying, Pitlick looking good, Sekera/Benning had a great game playing one of the top teams, if not THE top team in the Rangers; 3 of our latest losses are to top teams

    Through the lens causing concern: Larsson, Gryba, Lucic looked slow last night against a top flight team, and have looked that way against the top speedy teams. Add Reinhart to this list and we see a Bruinization trend of players being added by Chia that have some things in common that may not mesh welll with an approach that is needed to be succesful in the end (we may beat LA or Anaheim) but will have trouble against the speedy teams. This is the real worry for me.

  49. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk: 16 goals in the last 8 games.

    2-5-1 in those games.

    Scoring is currently an issue.

    – I prefer: we were really lucky at the beginning, and less lucky last 8 games: and with a PDO of now almost exactly 1: we will probably be +/- .500 for now.

  50. prefonmich says:

    –hudson–,

    I noticed this too but I recognized the problem as teams can collapse on the Oilers because there is absolutely NO FEAR of the point shot. Smart teams attack our forwards and leave our d alone so it is 3 on 5 which we win rarely. the only time Oilers scored was when Sekera came down low to help with the numbers. As long as our D don’t activate or shoot from the point, this team is easy to stop, except for McDavid, but even still, it’s usually 3 players on him and he only rarely beats those odds…

  51. Bruce Wayne says:

    Since the salary cap is close to maxed out (Lucic contract) and with Draisatl and McDavid needing new contracts soon (enjoy Eberle and RNH while you can), a .500 record isn’t good enough. This team’s best chance to win is during McDavid’s ELC.

    This team needs Puljujarvi to turn into Taylor Hall, and sooner rather than later.

  52. John Chambers says:

    Pouzar:
    Corgis up.
    High Danger Scoring chances down.

    hmmmm

    PDO getting back to the meat

  53. John Chambers says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Since the salary cap is close to maxed out (Lucic contract) and with Draisatl and McDavid needing new contracts soon (enjoy Eberle and RNH while you can),a .500 record isn’t good enough.This team’s best chance to win is during McDavid’s ELC.

    This team needs Puljujarvi to turn into Taylor Hall, and sooner rather than later.

    I think Eberle will be the ultimate cap casualty. It could happen as early as this summer if the Oilers decide they prefer the economy of Davidson and Maroon over the finish of Ebs.

    Fact is you can acquire a couple of Versteegs or Stempniaks to play wing on the cheap.

    Having 97 – 93 – 29 down the middle will allow us to spend less on wingers.

  54. Confused says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    I agree. We placed a big bet on JP being Laine, and so far it is not working.

    Once Davidson comes back, Russell becomes rather redundant unless Gryba goes.

    So perhaps a trade RW or RHD?

    Lots of press about upcoming meeting of managers, and ChiaPet kept talking about things getting corrected during the season not before.

    Place your bets …..

  55. Scungilli says:

    Bruce Wayne: This team’s best chance to win is during McDavid’s ELC.

    I’ve read this before. The last run of Cup winners did it without their best players on ELC’s. What matters most is whose managers are the most up to date with the game, as in the Pens adding speed and talent and winning, and of course lady luck.

  56. Scungilli says:

    John Chambers: I think Eberle will be the ultimate cap casualty. It could happen as early as this summer if the Oilers decide they prefer the economy of Davidson and Maroon over the finish of Ebs.

    Fact is you can acquire a couple of Versteegs or Stempniaks to play wing on the cheap.

    Having 97 – 93 – 29 down the middle will allow us to spend less on wingers.

    I’m betting on Nuge unless he starts scoring. Wrong decision for sure.

  57. russ99 says:

    McLellan is starting to frustrate me.

    First up, if Puljujarvi either isn’t healthy enough or producing enough to play wide swaths of the third period the last few nights, why is he still here?

    The team needs sustainable scoring, so what does he do? Put the secondary scorers on McDavid’s line, and of course then the secondary scoring dries up like the primary scoring.

    I agree that Ebs is worth a look on the Pouliot – RNH line due to past history, but our first line is overplaying their hand with all these low-percentage shots in traffic on the break, then either losing possession or ringing it around the outside.

    And our secondary scorers who played well vs. weaker opposition are now being fed the toughest opposition set up to stop McDavid.

    Put Lucic and Draisaitl with McDavid and retain the puck after our entry chance, then cycle to create more chances. McDavid and Lucic need to be able to play together, so keeping them apart just delays the time needed to find that cohesion.

    With Kassian back and Hendricks and Caggiula almost ready to go we’ll soon have enough bodies for the bottom six.

  58. McSorley33 says:

    kinger_OIL,

    You mean lucky with the schedule to start…

  59. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL: – So the 5×5/60 is badish on 15 games for those players highlighted.

    – We are 8th in total goals scored, with a mediocre PP%, which is currently 16th.

    – Scoring is not currently an issue.Sure some of these guys after 15 games are lowish.

    Resting your case on 8th in scoring when the last 6 games they are below a 30th place rate in scoring chances is whistling past the graveyard a bit imo.

  60. kinger_OIL says:

    McSorley33: If you are looking for one reason this thing is off the rails

    – Nah: I just go back to what LT said in his post: ” If you are looking for one reason this thing is off the rails…ask yourself if the RWs on these two lines are proven and substantial”.

    – It’s not off the rails. This team is currently top-10 in scoring and goal differential. Sure some guys have struggled, and others are doing better than expected.

    – LT is cranky today: a few days ago he be like: “enjoy this”. Now he be like: “management stopped trying this summer”

    – LT be like “McD doesn’t shoot enough”he has most assits in league, is one off the points lead…

    – Larsson, Lucic, Pool-party, Russel, Benning, Gryba That’s a lot added. Plus giving Lander a chance, Sheppy playing in the NHL, Caggulia. Pitlick while Hendy down

  61. --hudson-- says:

    Did some digging and here’s a nice article from Sunil about 2 weeks ago (before this losing streak even took hold).
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2016/10/28/13450790/keeping-an-eye-on-the-shots-against

    In the second row of the table it looks like the shots for and against (corsi) have been in the bottom third of the league when the score is tied or within 1. So we’ve been giving up too many shots and not taking enough when the game is on the line for awhile. (I would love to see an update on that table but corsica & my internet are not cooperating.)

    prefonmich:
    –hudson–,

    I noticed this too but I recognized the problem as teams can collapse on the Oilers because there is absolutely NO FEAR of the point shot. Smart teams attack our forwards and leave our d alone so it is 3 on 5 which we win rarely. the only time Oilers scored was when Sekera came down low to help with the numbers. As long as our D don’t activate or shoot from the point, this team is easy to stop, except for McDavid, but even still, it’s usually 3 players on him and he only rarely beats those odds…

  62. Woodguy says:

    Jethro Tull: In your opinion, what could we expect to see if it wasn’t score effects and just outplaying the opposition but losing?

    I suspect a clear advantage in HDSC with low PDO and high SV% for the opposition goalie.

    In particular, the volume of HDSC with the high SV% can break a team.

    I have no idea.

    I’d like to see it tried for a few games.

  63. Woodguy says:

    Bruce Wayne: Since you asked.Here are some number for Taylor Hall.

    SCF% 58
    HDSCF% 65 (that number is sky high)
    Shots on goal: 60!

    Milan Lucic:
    SCF% 52
    HDSCF%51

    Adam Larsson:
    SCF%: 47
    HDSCF% 50

    Two of these guys get to play with the best player in the world.The other is Taylor Hall, whose team has a better record than the Oilers despite a roster of mediocrities, outside of Hall and Schneider.Their team SCF% is below 50 percent despite Hall’s awesome number.

    Swapping Lucic and Larsson for Hall was ludicrous at the time and has turned out worse than expected.

    Hall’s doing that with Zajac and waiver pick Parenteau.

    Imagine if he were with RNH and Eberle?

    Man.

  64. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy,

    Maybe the Devils will take back Larsson and Lucic for Hall next summer?

  65. Woodguy says:

    Confused:
    Bruce Wayne,

    I agree. We placed a big bet on JP being Laine, and so far it is not working.

    Once Davidson comes back, Russell becomes rather redundant unless Gryba goes.

    So perhaps a trade RW or RHD?

    Lots of press about upcoming meeting of managers, and ChiaPet kept talking about things getting corrected during the season not before.

    Place your bets …..

    If Chia could have got a reasonable RD for Eberle then Hall would still be here.

    Had to clear cap for Lucic and the only nibble he got on non-Hall bait was RNH for Dumba.

    I bet he didn’t want to trade Hall, but the Lucic itch demanded scratching from both new and old managers at Kingsway. (now 104th….)

  66. Woodguy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Woodguy,

    Maybe the Devils will take back Larsson and Lucic for Hall next summer?

    If you are here all week I’ll try the veal.

  67. SoCaloil says:

    Last night’s game, despite the score was really a fun game to watch.
    MacT was really juggling the lines and you had no idea who’s coming out with whom next.
    And since none of the initial lines were clicking, it was the right thing to do.

    Really, Kassian and Lucic both had couple grade A scoring chances, and Sekera had another. Despite being outplayed by a better team, they could have come away with a point or two. They battled till the end.

    I was very impressed with Pitlick’s drive. Even when he hits a wall, he’ll put in the extra effort to get the puck deep. I’d like to see the whole team do that on a consistent basis

    Benning looks like he belongs…man…he does a lot of little things to give himself space to make the play. Really impressed at the young chap. he certainly has a future.

    I don’t get the Lucic hate. He did have several grade A chances. Some days they just don’t go in. And let’s give Raanta some credit here. He was on his game.

    I’m mixed about Kassian, He battled hard as you’d expect from a guy that’s been eating popcorn for 3 games. But his hard work was mostly confined within the boards…it did not translate to many opportunities in front of the net.

    I was generally pleased with the way D activated in this game, and the way fwds understood the play and covered the point. I have not seen that from the oilers to date. Sure the Nuge looked like a donkey on the third goal….but I have not seen this before from this team. Working like this game in and game out will do wonders to get the kinks out.

  68. --hudson-- says:

    It’s frightening to think there is no more cavalry coming; not many high end prospects in the system and not enough future cap space to sign big ticket free agents.

    Chia is going to have to be able to make one of those trades the Rangers have made in the past, the ones where they trade a high cap retirement contract and another asset for cap space. I think the Oilers will no doubt continue to get better through Connor’s development, but too bad the current cast is going to be dismantled before hitting their crescendo (ie: making cap moves once Connor gets paid)

    Bruce Wayne:
    Since the salary cap is close to maxed out (Lucic contract) and with Draisatl and McDavid needing new contracts soon (enjoy Eberle and RNH while you can),a .500 record isn’t good enough.This team’s best chance to win is during McDavid’s ELC.

    This team needs Puljujarvi to turn into Taylor Hall, and sooner rather than later.

  69. JDï™ says:

    Nakladal’s contract terminated. Maybe there’s a story behind his bouncing around the league?

    https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/news/hurricanes-terminate-contract-of-jakub-nakladal/c-283726790

  70. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    so when the plunging evelator drops from roof you just wait until you get to the second floor and say, “it’s all good, we can jump from here” ?

    🙂

  71. Woodguy says:

    JDï™:
    Nakladal’s contract terminated. Maybe there’s a story behind his bouncing around the league?

    https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/news/hurricanes-terminate-contract-of-jakub-nakladal/c-283726790

    If it’s terminated it usually means he has a contract waiting for him in Europe and needs his NHL team to cut ties so he can sign.

    It’s a nice thing for the NHL team to do.

  72. Drew says:

    Woodguy:
    kinger_OIL,

    so when the plunging evelator drops from roof you just wait until you get to the second floor and say, “it’s all good, we can jump from here” ?

    Didn’t you used to watch the roadrunner and coyote cartoon, if you only time your step at just the right time, no damage!

  73. HT Joe says:

    Regardless of how the Oilers do this year, it will make me feel better if Hall gets to play in playoff games next spring.

  74. Woodguy says:

    My big concern is the over 10% drop in Scoring Chance share.

    That 41.3% is an ugly number and I’ll dig deeper later to see if its more on the FOR or AGAINST side.

    First 5
    Scoring Chance For/60 10.98
    Scoring Chance Against/60 8.30

    Next 5
    SCF/60 10.90
    SCA/60 9.38

    Last 6
    SCF/60 8.57
    SCA/6012.27

    So, its both, but the majority is against.

    I know Russell started our screaming hot for the first 5 and cooled for the 2nd five, and went out.

    By eye and remembering some numbers Klef and Larsson have gone cold too.

    If I have some time later I’ll run each player too.

  75. bendelson says:

    HT Joe:
    Regardless of how the Oilers do this year, it will make me feel better if Hall gets to play in playoff games next spring.

    Regardless of how Hall does this year, it will make me feel better if the Oilers get to play in playoff games next spring.

  76. HT Joe says:

    bendelson: Regardless of how Hall does this year, it will make me feel better if the Oilers get to play in playoff games next spring.

    I too am hoping the Oilers finally make it to the post-season.

    But I’m cheering like hell for Hall too. This is mostly because it seemed like a dirty move to trade Hall to a team that, on paper, seemed less likely to make the playoffs than the Oilers.

  77. JDï™ says:

    HT Joe: it seemed like a dirty move to trade Hall to a team that

    Has nothing to do with it. Chiarelli’s job is to improve his team, any way he’s sees fit. That’s the only debatable part of the trade.

    This is not the Lanny MacDonald to the Rockies at all.

  78. GMB3 says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Since the salary cap is close to maxed out (Lucic contract) and with Draisatl and McDavid needing new contracts soon (enjoy Eberle and RNH while you can),a .500 record isn’t good enough.This team’s best chance to win is during McDavid’s ELC.

    This team needs Puljujarvi to turn into Taylor Hall, and sooner rather than later.

    Weird because I remember us being pretty shitty with Taylor Hall.

  79. GMB3 says:

    HT Joe:
    Regardless of how the Oilers do this year, it will make me feel better if Hall gets to play in playoff games next spring.

    So you’re a Taylor Hall fan and not an Oilers fan?

  80. who says:

    Dominoiler: I disagree.. Pitlick has been great, but don’t you think Tmac would like to have another card to play, one that could possibly fill a top 6 skill role?.. if Pitlick is on the top line, don’t get me wrong -he’s been great, then Versteeg could have definitely stuck around and been eating top 6 lunches while Pulj could have been granted some dang cover by now.. instead, no options, just struggles..

    Nice to see Kass have a good game.. glad to have him back in the lineup.. the oil were fairly soft last night.. the odd nurse hit and that’s it, to my eye.. chasing the play a fair bit, nailed it LT, rangers were handgun running when they had the puck..

    I agree that someone like versteeg would give him another option but my point is he doesn’t need any more options unless the option is better than the ones he has.
    Right now they have 5 right shot wingers who all seem to be playing pretty well when given the chance. Sure we would like to see more scoring from some of them but I don’t think more of the same options will improve that

  81. Confused says:

    Hence, Days and. Davie all making the trip, positive news

    Guessing they should be all available before December

    Edit Days is Cats, bloody spell checker arrrgh change t for g not cats bloody spell checker

  82. frjohnk says:

    Confused:
    Hence, Days and. Davie all making the trip, positive news

    Guessing they should be all available before December

    Edit Days is Cats, bloody spell checker arrrgh change t for g not cats bloody spell checker

    Blame the phone.

    I know mine is faulty, it doesn’t back check very well.

  83. HT Joe says:

    GMB3: So you’re a Taylor Hall fan and not an Oilers fan?

    *EDIT FOR CLARITY* I’m a fan of both the player and the team.

  84. HT Joe says:

    JDï™: Has nothing to do with it. Chiarelli’s job is to improve his team, any way he’s sees fit. That’s the only debatable part of the trade.

    This is not the Lanny MacDonald to the Rockies at all.

    I don’t mean to say that Chia got a lesser return on Hall in order toe screw Hall. It’s just gotta be discouraging after years in the wilderness for Hall to almost see the playoffs in sight, and then be traded to a lesser team.

  85. JDï™ says:

    frjohnk: I know mine is faulty, it doesn’t back check very well.

    Is this your phone case?

    http://ih1.redbubble.net/image.38185721.2404/mwo,500x,iphone_6_snap-pad,600×1000,ffffff.2u4.jpg

  86. Woodguy says:

    GMB3: Weird because I remember us being pretty shitty with Taylor Hall.

    Oilers last 5 year goal share:

    Hall on the ice 51.67%
    Hall not on the ice 40.82%

    You’re right that the Oilers were shitty, but only when Hall wasn’t on the ice.

  87. Jethro Tull says:

    frjohnk: Blame the phone.

    I know mine is faulty, it doesn’t back check very well.

    Blame WG’s phone.

  88. JDï™ says:

    HT Joe: It’s just gotta be discouraging

    Sure, but any time you’re considered a commodity and not a human being, it can be rough. Fortunately, the players are well compensated for this and sign on the dotted line willingly, even with the knowledge that they’re nothing more than skilled meat.

  89. HT Joe says:

    JDï™: Sure, but any time you’re considered a commodity and not a human being, it can be rough. Fortunately, the players are well compensated for this and sign on the dotted line willingly, even with the knowledge that they’re nothing more than skilled meat.

    I can’t disagree with any of this. I am still hoping he makes it to post-season. 😀

    (and after re-reading some of my earlier comments, I feel the need to clarify that my overall happiness would also be greatly improved should the Oilers to make the post-season too!)

    *EDIT* Also, I’m betting Hall’s agent makes sure McDavid gets a no-trade clause on his next contract. Not that it should be an issue.

  90. frjohnk says:

    JDï™: Is this your phone case?

    http://ih1.redbubble.net/image.38185721.2404/mwo,500x,iphone_6_snap-pad,600×1000,ffffff.2u4.jpg

    Ha ha. Yup.

    You can also drop it from a skyscraper and it won’t break when it hits the ground.

    Soft as a pillow.

  91. Jethro Tull says:

    frjohnk: Ha ha. Yup.

    You can also drop it from a skyscraper and it won’t break when it hits the ground.

    Soft as a pillow.

    It’s a great phone cover, but people will insist that it’s a canoe and then complain about why it’s such a shitty canoe.

  92. PunjabiOil says:

    Trading hall, has it some ways, diminished my joy for watching the Oilers.

    Trading him was one of those things that makes you shake your head and ask “wow, what were they thinking?”

    They paid the price as Chiarelli put it – but not exactly how he interpreted it. What happened is they paid the price to be mediocre today instead of great tomorrow.

    Can spin it however you want, it was an indefensible trade.

  93. Lowetide says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Trading hall, has it some ways, diminished my joy for watching the Oilers.

    Trading him was one of those things that makes you shake your head and ask “wow, what were they thinking?”

    They paid the price as Chiarelli put it – but not exactly how he interpreted it.What happened is they paid the price to be mediocre today instead of great tomorrow.

    Can spin it however you want, it was an indefensible trade.

    I believe many Oilers fans have already left to be honest. I get emailed and dms now that all follow a similar theme. A discussion can begin from any point and ends back at the same spot. I don’t judge either way, and understand completely. People have their lives to live and if they feel betrayed then it is correct to move on and find other things. That is a good thing.

  94. Bruce Wayne says:

    GMB3: So you’re a Taylor Hall fan and not an Oilers fan?

    Absolutely. With Hall turning the Devils around I’m going to order NHL center ice and cheer on my new favourite team. I have never understood people who cheer for the laundry above all other things. Taylor Hall was the best player on the Oilers when I became an Oiler fan, and he was treated mercilessly by the fans and the media here, who consistently blamed, and continue to blame, him for the failures of others.

    If I have to choose between cheering for Hall and cheering for the Oilers, the choice is easy. Indeed, I do find myself cheering for the Oilers on some days (like when Eberle and McDavid make sweet music against the Penguins) but there is a dirtiness to it. I’m with Punjabioil all the way with this one. It was a trade so bad that it diminishes the joy of victory.

  95. Jaxon says:

    If you’re looking at the coach’s deployment of D, I would think it wise to stick to home games where he has last change. TMac can’t really control matchups on the road so it doesn’t really give a good indication of how they are bing deployed. It does give a good look at performance.

    I’ve always wondered about why coaches don’t load lines at home and balance the rosters on the road. Is it because the familiarity is more important than line matching? But if that was the case, MacT’s blender would rarely come out. Genuinely curious about that and if I’m missing something.

  96. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy: Oilers last 5 year goal share:

    Hall on the ice 51.67%
    Hall not on the ice 40.82%

    You’re right that the Oilers were shitty, but only when Hall wasn’t on the ice.

    I know and I’m not saying its Taylor Halls fault the team was shitty. The team was shitty in spite of Taylor Hall’s performance on the ice. Something needed to be done and it was painful and thinking about what could have been is even more stressful.

    Bruce Wayne, if you’re such a Devils fan, is posting on this blog not just a type of trolling now. All you do is bemoan Chia and the Oilers. Why continue to post if you are a Taylor Hall fan and not an Edmonton Oiler fan?

    I’m 24, I’ve been an Oiler fan as long as I can remember. I cheered for the team before Taylor Hall, I’ll cheer for the team after Hall. Grew up a Doug Weight fan. My dad and my uncles were fans of the Gretzky era Oilers and managed to stay the course despite selling the greatest player to play the game and trading Mark Messier. Both of those guys >>>> Hall.

    You know who’s more exciting to watch than Taylor Hall? Connor McDavid. That’s a reason to be a fan of this team.

    If you stopped cheering for the team because of your dislike of Pete Chiarelli, and you deem him incompetent because you believe you understand what it takes to field a winning NHL franchise more than someone with some actual job experience in the field.. Then once he is axed for making such bone-headed moves do you cheer for the Oilers or just Taylor Hall?

    If you became a team of this fan for Taylor Hall, then you missed out on a lot of better players and teams to cheer for during Hall’s Oiler years and chose instead to cheer for a horrible franchise in it’s darkest years. Kind of a shite bandwagon to jump on.

  97. Bruce Wayne says:

    GMB3: I know and I’m not saying its Taylor Halls fault the team was shitty. The team was shitty in spite of Taylor Hall’s performance on the ice. Something needed to be done and it was painful and thinking about what could have been is even more stressful.

    Bruce Wayne, if you’re such a Devils fan, is posting on this blog not just a type of trolling now. All you do is bemoan Chia and the Oilers. Why continue to post if you are a Taylor Hall fan and not an Edmonton Oiler fan?

    You know who’s more exciting to watch than Taylor Hall? Connor McDavid. That’s a reason to be a fan of this team.

    I post here because this is not, and has never been, primarily a site for Oiler fans. IThat’s what oilersnation is for. I am not trolling oiler fans. I am talking about hockey.

    And you know what is more exciting that Connor McDavid? A Connor McDavid shift followed by a Taylor Hall shift.

    Even better, that team would win more games.

  98. Lowetide says:

    People can post as they wish, no one (NO ONE) is on time out at this time. Hall being gone five months has not softened the blow for many, so they express it and we experience it because that is what the group is going through. Personally, I am cheering like hell for Hall, Yakupov and will cheer for Marc Pouliot when he signs with Las Vegas. 🙂

  99. PunjabiOil says:

    If you stopped cheering for the team because of your dislike of Pete Chiarelli, and you deem him incompetent because you believe you understand what it takes to field a winning NHL franchise more than someone with some actual job experience in the field.

    I don’t get the appease to the authority arguments.

    Jay Feaster won a Stanley Cup. It happens. Building consistently competitive teams is what separates a top GM. Not winning a cup.

    Chiarelli left Boston in a mess due to his inability to manage the cap. All of the core was already in place when he got there. He set the franchise back in giving up Seguin and Wheeler for little in return. In 14 months as a GM in Edmonton, he made two more franchise crippling decisions in the Reinhart and Hall trades than did any of his predecessors. That is what he should be evaluated on – not a cup he won because it has no relevance to the decisions/mistakes he has made since.

    I’d like to be wrong on my assessment on him – but the onus is on him to prove otherwise.

    Being a fan of the team doesn’t mean one has to blindly accept whatever management feeds them.

  100. OmJo says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Trading hall, has it some ways, diminished my joy for watching the Oilers.

    Trading him was one of those things that makes you shake your head and ask “wow, what were they thinking?”

    They paid the price as Chiarelli put it – but not exactly how he interpreted it.What happened is they paid the price to be mediocre today instead of great tomorrow.

    Can spin it however you want, it was an indefensible trade.

    This.

    My views of this team is bitter-sweet. I’m an Oiler fan, so I like when we win. But I don’t like it as much anymore. The price Chiarelli paid to make us a mediocre team wasn’t worth it IMO. We went from 2006-2009 being a mediocre team.

    I wanted this team to be the next Chicago Blackhawks, a perrenial winner. Not the next San Jose Sharks – ie a team that makes the playoffs year after year but fail to make it past the hump and win the cup.

    The organisation didn’t value having a Connor McDavid and Taylor Hall on the same team, opting instead to emulate the Bruins and Sharks rather than the Penguins and Blackhawks. As everybody is talking about the game speeding up, we’re now going backwards and getting bigger and slower.

    With all that said, I’ll always cheer for the Oilers. They’re our team. But I won’t pretend like they are infallible and praise them for making decisions that leave me shaking my head in frustration.

  101. OmJo says:

    Lowetide:
    People can post as they wish, no one (NO ONE) is on time out at this time. Hall being gone five months has not softened the blow for many, so they express it and we experience it because that is what the group is going through. Personally, I am cheering like hell for Hall, Yakupov and will cheer for Marc Pouliot when he signs with Las Vegas.

    I’m still cheering for Patrick Thoresen dammit!

  102. OmJo says:

    PunjabiOil:
    If you stopped cheering for the team because of your dislike of Pete Chiarelli, and you deem him incompetent because you believe you understand what it takes to field a winning NHL franchise more than someone with some actual job experience in the field.

    I don’t get the appease to the authority arguments.

    Jay Feaster won a Stanley Cup.It happens.Building consistently competitive teams is what separates a top GM. Not winning a cup.

    Chiarelli left Boston in a mess due to his inability to manage the cap.All of the core was already in place when he got there.He set the franchise back in giving up Seguin and Wheeler for little in return.In 14 months as a GM in Edmonton, he made two more franchise crippling decisions in the Reinhart and Hall trades than did any of his predecessors.That is what he should be evaluated on – not a cup he won because it has no relevance to the decisions/mistakes he has made since.

    I’d like to be wrong on my assessment on him – but the onus is on him to prove otherwise.

    Being a fan of the team doesn’t mean one has to blindly accept whatever management feeds them.

    Just wait until we trade away Nuge to make room for Brent Burns’ 7×6 contract this summer…

  103. Lowetide says:

    OmJo: I’m still cheering for Patrick Thoresen dammit!

    Haha.

  104. OmJo says:

    Lowetide,

    But in all seriousness, I’m cheering like hell for former Oilers, too. From Cogliano to Gagner, Hall to Yakupov, Paajarvi to Petry, Dubnyk to Reider.

  105. GMB3 says:

    Bruce Wayne: I post here because this is not, and has never been, primarily a site for Oiler fans.IThat’s what oilersnation is for.I am not trolling oiler fans.I am talking about hockey.

    And you know what is more exciting that Connor McDavid?A Connor McDavid shift followed by a Taylor Hall shift.

    Even better, that team would win more games.

    Don’t you primarily talk about Taylor Hall and the trade though? Something that’s proven to be a sore spot on this blog. I dunno. LT’s place LT’s rules I personally just think it gets old hearing the same bitterness every time you post.

    Those exciting Taylor Hall shifts where he turned the puck over at the blue line, or on the half wall, managed to fall down and barely make it back across the red line in time to see the goal light flash on.

    Or those exciting zone entries where he fired a muffin into the tendy’s chest. Those exciting .GIFs of soaking Eakins.

    So quick to say New Jersey is turning around on the strength of the addition of Taylor Hall, yet so quick to discredit the success of the Oilers at this point of the season.

  106. HT Joe says:

    OMJO and PUNJABIOIL… nice series of posts there. I agree.

  107. PunjabiOil says:

    Those exciting Taylor Hall shifts where he turned the puck over at the blue line, or on the half wall, managed to fall down and barely make it back across the red line in time to see the goal light flash on.

    Or those exciting zone entries where he fired a muffin into the tendy’s chest. Those exciting .GIFs of soaking Eakins.

    You’re missing the bigger picture.

    1. Hall was 5th in the NHL in EV points last season.
    2. Hall is 3rd in the NHL in EV/60 since 2012.
    3. Oilers goal differential was herculean with Hall; horrific without
    4. Every single linemate of his improved offensive production with Hall on the ice than without.

    We had a top 15 NHL forward and pissed it away.

    All in the name of culture change (Both Bob McKenzie and Elliot Friedman have alluded to this).

  108. GMB3 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Those exciting Taylor Hall shifts where he turned the puck over at the blue line, or on the half wall, managed to fall down and barely make it back across the red line in time to see the goal light flash on.


    Or those exciting zone entries where he fired a muffin into the tendy’s chest. Those exciting .GIFs of soaking Eakins.

    You’re missing the bigger picture.

    1.Hall was 5th in the NHL in EV points last season.
    2.Hall is 3rd in the NHL in EV/60 since 2012.
    3.Oilers goal differential was herculean with Hall; horrific without
    4.Every single linemate of his improved offensive production with Hall on the ice than without.

    We had a top 15 NHL forward and pissed it away.

    All in the name of culture change (Both Bob McKenzie and Elliot Friedman have alluded to this).

    So even though culture change cannot be measured by stats (except possibly wins & losses, but even then there are other variables at play) does that not mean it is important? Rutherford talked about the importance of a “fit” in the room. What if TM didn’t see a fit? Doesn’t excuse the lacklustre return, but you get what you get. You can’t force trades.

    As a disclaimer, I always thought Taylor Hall looked like an A-hole and had a shit attitude from my own observations (no merit really, but how I felt), but I always figured trading Drai + for a RH dman and drafting Dubois while signing an FA forward (3C) was the key to for short term improvement without sacrificing Hall or RNH. And would have been the best path to sustaining an elite team.

  109. stevezie says:

    –hudson–: It’s frightening to think there is no more cavalry coming

    After Hall the most marketable piece we had as Leon Draisatl. Young, cheap, big, fast, draft pedigree, and a fifty point season under his belt. He was worth a lot. He’s still here and Hall is not.

    Looks to me like the Oilers have bet a lot of hockey on Leon Draisatl being a really, really good player by next year at the latest.

    OmJo,

    Speaking for myself, i have some loud mouthed friends who see every Oilers victory as further proof that stats are dumb, Hall sucked, and Chia is a genius.

    They’re not alone. They are legion. i don’t like seeing stupidity rewarded and (i really dont like learning that everything i know if wrong and I’m the idiot).

    It has taken a little lustre off the wins.

  110. OmJo says:

    Our culture change has been demoted to the third line and has looked lacklustre so far.

    The Devils culture change is leading them to an 8-3-3 record. Good for 19pts, same as us.

  111. PunjabiOil says:

    I don’t place much value to “culture” and “intangibles”

    They are, IMO, fluff words used by prop up/justify poor performance.

    They are also in constant flux, changing narratives, and variable when teams are winning. I recall the 2011-2012 hot start (9-4-1 which was due to puck luck and strong goaltending) that was inaccurately described to a culture shift.

    Tyler Seguin was advocated to be moved by the now Oilers assistant GM (Keith Gretzky) due to “culture”

    The NHL is littered with countless examples of this.

    I don’t buy there has been a culture change to a great extent – or at least one that we can say with absolute certainty. It’s very difficult to quantify/measure and even if it’s agreed that there has been a change – to what extent have other factors (weak schedule, Connor MacDavid (involved in 40% of team goals), internal growth, etc.) contributed to the Oilers record this year?

    Was Hall really a dick? Or just frustrated when the team wasn’t winning – due to the incompetence of his GMs?

    Here’s McDavid on Hall:

    He was hoping he and Hall would be Oilers together for a long time, but Wednesday’s news put a sudden stop to those dreams.

    “I want to express thanks for all that he’s done for me because he’s done so much. I’ll never really know how I can repay him, or if I’ll ever be able to, for what he’s done for me this year.

    “He’s a guy who took me under his wing right away. It’s hard to explain how much that means to me.” .

  112. GMB3 says:

    OmJo:
    Our culture change has been demoted to the third line and has looked lacklustre so far.

    The Devils culture change is leading them to an 8-3-3 record. Good for 19pts, same as us.

    Doesn’t our culture change have the same amount of points as Hall? (haven’t looked for a few days)

    Picking cherries for your narrative.

    One could argue the culture change was addition by subtraction.

  113. PunjabiOil says:

    Speaking for myself, i have some loud mouthed friends who see every Oilers victory as further proof that stats are dumb, Hall sucked, and Chia is a genius.

    They’re not alone. They are legion. i don’t like seeing stupidity rewarded and (i really dont like learning that everything i know if wrong and I’m the idiot).

    A large bundle of truth to this.

  114. PunjabiOil says:

    GMB3: Doesn’t our culture change have the same amount of points as Hall? (haven’t looked for a few days)

    Picking cherries for your narrative.

    No. No he doesn’t, despite playing with Connor the bulk of the season.

    Lucic has many empty net points as well.

    Lucic also has an embarrassing 1.08 EV/60 rate.

    It was a foolish contract then, and will be a foolish contract down the road. Hopefully there will be a compliance buy-out option at the 2020 lockout.

  115. Dustylegnd says:

    Ok everybody step back from the ledge, I am as critical of Chia as anyone…but keep in mind our Defense is wounded and on a team this shallow we can not be wounded.

    It now must be painfully clear to Chia and company that without meaningful point contributions from the back end we will not be Elite.

    Lets hope the exponential Nurse trajectory is not Hyperbolic but rather a very encouraging piece of growth.

    Believe it or not a D corps with Russel and Davidson will look significantly better than the current incarnation esp once TMac figures out the symbiotic pairings.

    Stauffer called this last May…the rest of the league will determine who Chia trades….Chi gets no say other than to say NO…….Shero is anything but a fog and closer to a master thief, hats off to him

    Don’t repeat past history and get down on an 18 year old kid that can’t speak the language and needs to adjust to a 200 x 85 rink….give him 5 years before passing any judgement……see Scheifele circa this year.

    Deep breath relax it will revert to the mean when it comes to scoring all will be well because we have McDavid…great players who are great people always have great things happen to them….

  116. GMB3 says:

    PunjabiOil: No.No he doesn’t, despite playing with Connor the bulk of the season.

    Lucic has many empty net points as well.

    Lucic also has an embarrassing 1.08 EV/60 rate.

    It was a foolish contract then, and will be a foolish contract down the road.Hopefully there will be a compliance buy-out option at the 2020 lockout.

    Well, I’m not arguing with you on the Lucic contract. Frankly, watching him play is pretty depressing.

  117. Bruce Wayne says:

    GMB3: Don’t you primarily talk about Taylor Hall and the trade though? Something that’s proven to be a sore spot on this blog. I dunno. LT’s place LT’s rules I personally just think it gets old hearing the same bitterness every time you post.

    Those exciting Taylor Hall shifts where he turned the puck over at the blue line, or on the half wall, managed to fall down and barely make it back across the red line in time to see the goal light flash on.

    Or those exciting zone entries where he fired a muffin into the tendy’s chest. Those exciting .GIFs of soaking Eakins.

    So quick to say New Jersey is turning around on the strength of the addition of Taylor Hall, yet so quick to discredit the success of the Oilers at this point of the season.

    I’ve been posting here a long, long, time and clearly, I am not the only one still focused on Taylor Hall. Indeed, not too long ago I was attacked on this blog for making everything about Taylor Hall in a thread the host had written about Taylor Hall.

    As to the substance of your post, in this very thread I posted a number of stats regarding Taylor Hall’s season so far which provide an argument for Hall’s excellence beyond wins and losses. Perhaps you did not read them.

    Did you know that Taylor Hall’s HDSC% this year is 65%? That is an astonishing number.

    Did you know that when Taylor Hall is on the ice the Devils allow much, much, fewer scoring chances than when he is off the ice?

    When I say that Taylor Hall is one of the best players in the NHL I am not giving my opinion. I am making an argument. The two things have nothing to do with each other. This site has never been about expressing opinions. It is about transforming opinions into knowledge.

  118. Bruce Wayne says:

    Adam Larsson was supposed to be the poster child for Ricki’s box protection thesis, that you can identify good defenders by the save percentage of the goalies they play in front of.

    How is that working out?

  119. Bruce Wayne says:

    stevezie: After Hall the most marketable piece we had as Leon Draisatl. Young, cheap, big, fast, draft pedigree, and a fifty point season under his belt. He was worth a lot. He’s still here and Hall is not.

    Looks to me like the Oilers have bet a lot of hockey on Leon Draisatl being a really, really good player by next year at the latest.

    OmJo,

    Speaking for myself, i have some loud mouthed friends who see every Oilers victory as further proof that stats are dumb, Hall sucked, and Chia is a genius.

    They’re not alone. They are legion. i don’t like seeing stupidity rewarded and(i really dont like learning that everything i know if wrong and I’m the idiot).

    It has taken a little lustre off the wins.

    We are on the same team here. If I have to choose between being right and being loyal to the home town team, well, I’d rather be right.

    So while I admire LT’s ability to be happy with the team, while knowing what he knows, I find I don’t understand it. I acknowledge that it may be a better way to live, but I think it may require a kind of forgetting I may not be capable of.

    Honestly, what would help is if Larsson were a better player. He’s fine, definitely a solid D, but he has no offense at all, he doesn’t jump into the play and he’s made only one stretch pass that made me stand up and notice, and he doesn’t have magical defensive abilities. I just can’t get over the thought, what kind of person trades Taylor freakin’ Hall for solid? It’s an idea so ludicrous I feel like I’m through the looking glass every day.

    The other thing that would help (if we are doing therapy) is if Puljujarvi turned into a star. That would help me forget. I don’t have much hope for Draisatl, he’s a good player, and I like him, but he’s no Taylor Hall.

  120. OmJo says:

    GMB3: Doesn’t our culture change have the same amount of points as Hall? (haven’t looked for a few days)

    Picking cherries for your narrative.

    One could argue the culture change was addition by subtraction.

    PunjabiOil beat me to it. Stupid customers never let me have any fun.

    PS: Lowetide your blog is helping me get through this shift. I owe you one!

  121. frjohnk says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Adam Larsson was supposed to be the poster child for Ricki’s box protection thesis, that you can identify good defenders by the save percentage of the goalies they play in front of.

    How is that working out?

    It was and always has been the system in New Jersey.

    Not sure if it is still the same way but New Jersey just a few games ago was allowing less corsi attempts, scoring chances and high danger chances than last year.

  122. PunjabiOil says:

    The smart money is on neither Draisaitl or Puljujarvi becoming a first liner, much less a star.

    A guy like Hall is very rare/difficult to acquire. We don’t see it happen too often. The Thornton, Seguin, or Hall deals are rare and justifiably so – the team that gives up the better player in the deal almost always loses.

    This quote was telling:

    Ray Shero, Devils GM: “I definitely wasn’t looking to trade Adam Larsson. But I may never get a chance again to get Taylor Hall.”

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/taylor-hall-edmonton-oilers-adam-larsson-cult-of-hockey

    Another gem from that link:

    Allan Mitchell, Lowetide blogger & TSN1260 radio host: “It is a terrible trade.”

  123. frjohnk says:

    Adam Larsson 5 on 5

    CA___SA___SCA__HDCA
    50.5__27.0_17.4__8.5___NJ14-15
    48.7__25.8_16.3__7.9___NJ15-16
    55.4__29.4_25.1__13.6__EDM

    scoring chances and high danger chances against have exploded since coming from NJ

    But still early….

  124. Bruce Wayne says:

    PunjabiOil,

    What is amazing about that Shero quote is the exact same reasoning was, and is, used to justify the trade. That Taylor Hall was traded because it is supposedly so hard to acquire guys like Adam Larsson.

    Both sides can’t be right. An interesting thought experiment is to ask yourself what it would take to re-acquire Taylor Hall? I can’t imagine that it would be possible.

    Similarly, long ago when I suggested that you couldn’t get a seventh round pick for Milan Lucic, I wasn’t trolling. Does anyone still think the Oilers could trade that contract?

    We are all getting along now so I won’t bring up Nazem Kadri.

  125. Bruce Wayne says:

    Did Ray Ferraro ever nail his assessment:

    ““Clearly the best player in the deal went East. There’s not any question about that. I mean I was surprised there wasn’t a second piece in the puzzle for Edmonton. Adam Larsson I don’t see play live a whole pile, but he is a defence first, second and third guy. He moves the puck OK. He skates fine. He’s not a speed burner, but he skates fine. He’s not going to score a lot.”

  126. PunjabiOil says:

    Similarly, long ago when I suggested that you couldn’t get a seventh round pick for Milan Lucic, I wasn’t trolling. Does anyone still think the Oilers could trade that contract?

    Even if the Oilers wanted to trade Lucic, they couldn’t.

    1. He has a full NMC
    2. His contract is buy-out proof with signing bonuses annually.

    Just a horrible, horrible contract. Even if everything goes as hoped, the Oilers are paying full dollar. The Oilers bear all the risk on this contract. There is no room for overperformance.

    Patrick Maroon is performing his job at 25% of the cap hit.

    Circles back to the Billy Beane quote (also applies to the Hall trade):

    “The day you say you have to do something, you’re screwed. Because you are going to make a bad deal. You can always recover from the player you don’t sign. You may never recover from the player you signed at the wrong price.”

  127. Lowetide says:

    PunjabiOil:

    Another gem from that link:

    Allan Mitchell, Lowetide blogger & TSN1260 radio host: “It is a terrible trade.”

    I don’t think anyone can argue against that pov, and I like Larsson.

  128. OmJo says:

    stevezie: After Hall the most marketable piece we had as Leon Draisatl. Young, cheap, big, fast, draft pedigree, and a fifty point season under his belt. He was worth a lot. He’s still here and Hall is not.

    Looks to me like the Oilers have bet a lot of hockey on Leon Draisatl being a really, really good player by next year at the latest.

    OmJo,

    Speaking for myself, i have some loud mouthed friends who see every Oilers victory as further proof that stats are dumb, Hall sucked, and Chia is a genius.

    They’re not alone. They are legion. i don’t like seeing stupidity rewarded and(i really dont like learning that everything i know if wrong and I’m the idiot).

    It has taken a little lustre off the wins.

    Yup, one of the reasons I’m avoiding the Oilers Message Board for the time being. Can imagine there’s tons of that going on there. Despite the vast majority of our wins coming off the backs of McDavid and Talbot, almost singlehandedly.

    But I’m in a phase right now where if we were to win a game 3-2, I’m thinking “man, if we had Hall this would probably have been 5-2 instead”. It’s hard getting over the trade lol…

  129. OmJo says:

    PunjabiOil,

    The NMC expires in the last two years I thought? There won’t be much of a player left by then at this rate.

  130. GMB3 says:

    Bruce Wayne: We are on the same team here.If I have to choose between being right and being loyal to the home town team, well, I’d rather be right.

    So while I admire LT’s ability to be happy with the team, while knowing what he knows, I find I don’t understand it.I acknowledge that it may be a better way to live, but I think it may require a kind of forgetting I may not be capable of.

    Honestly, what would help is if Larsson were a better player. He’s fine, definitely a solid D, but he has no offense at all, he doesn’t jump into the play and he’s made only one stretch pass that made me stand up and notice, and he doesn’t have magical defensive abilities.I just can’t get over the thought, what kind of person trades Taylor freakin’ Hall for solid?It’s an idea so ludicrous I feel like I’m through the looking glass every day.

    The other thing that would help (if we are doing therapy) is if Puljujarvi turned into a star.That would help me forget.I don’t have much hope for Draisatl, he’s a good player, and I like him, but he’s no Taylor Hall.

    Why do you choose to become an Oilers fan? Just out of curiosity. You said it coincided around the time we drafted Hall. Why then?

    I’m not sure if you’re trying to insinuate that loyalty = stupidity, but there is something to be said about following a team through the dark days to finally see some success. As a Jays fan, it felt pretty good.

  131. Bruce Wayne says:

    GMB3,

    I didn’t choose to become a fan. Rather, the games were on TV and I watched them, people were taking about them and I was listening, and bit by bit I found myself caring about the outcomes. Management did countless things I disagreed with, and because of that, the team never really had a chance (well that, and goaltending–I maintain that the Eakins teams had a chance but were sunk by goaltending), but you could still cheer for the success of individual players.

    Then McDavid came, and for the first time they had a real chance, but they pissed it away with an unconscionable decision. I disagreed with most of what management did for years but this was a) the single worst move by a large, large, margin, and b) it cost the team my favourite player.

    The real tragedy of the whole thing is that Tambellini was a far worse general manager than Chiarelli at the nuts and bolts of the job. In his entire tenure he didn’t add a single good player. Chiarelli has added Kassian and Maroon who are both good or at least decent, while Benning and Caggiula have promise, Talbot is a huge add. That’s a good bit of business, exactly what the Oilers should have done five years ago. And then he throws all that good work away with the Hall trade (and the Reinhart deal before it) trades that were terrible from the first second, trades that required no time to find out who won, because it was so terrifyingly obvious from the beginning.

    I am still sort of a fan. But the joy is gone. I know too much of what could have been.

  132. GMB3 says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Fair enough, interesting to know. I understand your position on Chia/the trade better now.

  133. stevezie says:

    Bruce Wayne: So while I admire LT’s ability to be happy with the team, while knowing what he knows, I find I don’t understand it. I acknowledge that it may be a better way to live,

    Quoted for truth. I am constantly amazed by lowetide’s ability to take joy from the oilers while passionately disagreeing with them. I hope I’m that good to any kids i should ever have.

    The rest of your post- big time. I have a lot more invested in my own brain than i do in the Oilers. I want to be right. I’ll admit it. Gladly.

    That said, as the peanut gallery quiets down i am more and more at peace and ready to see some goals. As long as the team flies, i can learn to accept success (hypothetically). ive been wrong before.

    Larsson is the Swedish Jason Smith. That’s a fine compliment for the player, but a dire judgement of the trade.

  134. stevezie says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    I agree with all of this too.

  135. Bruce Wayne says:

    stevezie,

    Good line. I have a lot invested in my brain as well.

    In honesty, LT’s words did help some. The Penguin game was fun at least, and Sekera’s goal the other night was great. But still it has lost its lustre.

    On the other hand, I saw some highlights of the Devils the other night and Taylor Hall was a human highlight reel. So I am going to order NHL center ice. Watching Taylor Hall will never loses its lustre.

    In other news, I took my son to see the Strumbellas when they were in town. Great show. I liked it a lot more than I thought I would.

  136. Ryan says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    The other problem with Taylor Hall is that it certainly looks like he led Chiarelli to overvalue RNH and Draisatl.

  137. stevezie says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    I think their “hit” is not bad, but i heard their guitarist host an hour of handpicked radio music and that guy has good taste. I’m rooting for them based on that.

    And hall, like Hemsky before him, was a wonderful player to watch. Hockey is for fun. i am biased toward fun players.

  138. stevezie says:

    Ryan,

    I think both those guys are good , but early reports look clear as to who the elite was.

  139. Georges says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Chiarelli had some data to work with on the potential of a Hall-McDavid team. They played together for 45 games last year.

    GP, W, L, OTL, PPG, GFA, GAA
    45, 17, 25, 3, 0.82, 2.60, 3.00 (Hall-McDavid)
    37, 14, 18, 5, 0.89, 2.22, 2.89 (Hall)

    He must have seen those results and felt a little less excitement than you over rolling out a Hall line after a McDavid line.

    You can’t win giving up 3 goals a game. And Hall wasn’t going to bring down the GAA. The 2015-16 team had a long runway.

    So we don’t have Hall. We have Larsson, who is a fine player who could become much better if our coaches encourage and develop his attack.

    Hall is a great player. But McDavid is Lebron James. 1. You build around Lebron James. 2. You don’t waste ANY years of Lebron James’ career.

  140. Bruce Wayne says:

    stevezie,

    Their hit suffers from radio overplay, but they have good songs on all three albums. They sound like the Lumineers, if the Lumineers were good. They really understand the communal aspect of singing, how a song is meant to be sung along to. All three albums are really catchy and yet have a substance to them.

  141. Bruce Wayne says:

    Georges,

    They are wasting this year of McDavid’s career.

    The team with the most goals wins the game. When Hall was on the ice the Oilers outscored the other team. So far anyway, when Larsson is on the ice, the Oilers are getting outscored. This despite the fact that Larsson is playing with better teammates.

    Besides, Larsson is not lowering the Oilers GAA. Conversely, the Devils give up more chances when Hall is off the ice than when he is on. Conclusion, Hall does, indeed, reduced goals against.

    New Jersey is no worse defensively this year than last (see thePadre’s posts).

    That last year’s team didn’t win is not evidence of how this year’s team would do. No one was suggesting bringing that team back.

    Hall helps teams win more than Larsson does. That’s just a fact, born out by the extensive track record of both players and their performance so far this year. The Oilers are not a special case, the exception to this rule. I know the counterargument is, “but look at the records” but that isn’t an argument at all.

  142. Georges says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Yep, the team with the most goals wins the game.

    2015-16 5v5 on-ice GF%
    Hall, 51.8
    Larsson, 55.4

    2015-16 5v5 close on-ice GF%
    Hall, 47.7
    Larsson, 55.3

    2015-16 All situations on-ice GF%
    Hall, 54.2
    Larsson, 46.2

    Hall got to play 5 v. 4 guys while Larsson got to play 4 v. 5 guys. Never reverse. I’m guessing that’s the same in New Jersey. I sure hope Hall isn’t giving up more chances playing on the power play and not playing on the PK.

    Also, these numbers are mostly for fun. I don’t know how big a gap there has to be to matter. You probably don’t either. All the statistical tests you can use assume stationary distributions. Competitive sports aren’t stationary. We’re just talking.

    I can see you love Hall. I don’t see why that has to cross over into hate for Larsson. The guy’s a player. He’s no Shea Weber. But, from time to time (like against the Sharks in the playoffs), Shea Weber’s no Shea Weber.

    Oilers GA after 17 last year was 54, It’s 41 this year. I can safely say the team that has Larsson playing 20 minutes a game has a lower GAA than the team that didn’t have Larsson. How’s that?

    When I regressed GF and GA on team points per game way back, reducing GA was usually worth more than increasing GF. I’m not sure if that’s changed, but guessing by how stingy recent Cup winners have been, I think Chiarelli coveted the right type of player if he was going to change the way this team played. And boy did it have to change. I admire the fact you were able to root for individual play over the Hall era but those teams were bad at hockey. This year’s team, as much as you say it and possibly wish it, is not bad at hockey. The way they’re playing now, they’re fine, with a dreamy upside if the west deteriorates. (Talbot should let fewer pucks go through him, though. The goalie, after all, is always the favorite, high danger or not. He needs to make one more save per game again. Be the median goalie we need him to be.)

    And one more thing on your the team with the most goals wins the game… the guy they brought over to replace Hall, his all situations on-ice GF% last year?

    67.8.

  143. Woodguy says:

    GMB3: I know and I’m not saying its Taylor Halls fault the team was shitty. The team was shitty in spite of Taylor Hall’s performance on the ice. Something needed to be done and it was painful and thinking about what could have been is even more stressful.

    Bruce Wayne, if you’re such a Devils fan, is posting on this blog not just a type of trolling now. All you do is bemoan Chia and the Oilers. Why continue to post if you are a Taylor Hall fan and not an Edmonton Oiler fan?

    I’m 24, I’ve been an Oiler fan as long as I can remember. I cheered for the team before Taylor Hall, I’ll cheer for the team after Hall. Grew up a Doug Weight fan. My dad and my uncles were fans of the Gretzky era Oilers and managed to stay the course despite selling the greatest player to play the game and trading Mark Messier. Both of those guys >>>> Hall.

    You know who’s more exciting to watch than Taylor Hall? Connor McDavid. That’s a reason to be a fan of this team.

    If you stopped cheering for the team because of your dislike of Pete Chiarelli, and you deem him incompetent because you believe you understand what it takes to field a winning NHL franchise more than someone with some actual job experience in the field.. Then once he is axed for making such bone-headed moves do you cheer for the Oilers or just Taylor Hall?

    If you became a team of this fan for Taylor Hall, then you missed out on a lot of better players and teams to cheer for during Hall’s Oiler years and chose instead to cheer for a horrible franchise in it’s darkest years. Kind of a shite bandwagon to jump on.

    You present these decisions as “either/or” and they are not.

    I’ve cheered for the Oiler’s uniform and the players wearing it for 37 years now.

    I can think the trade was awful and still cheer for the laundry and players AND cheer for Hall.

    Its not an either/or proposition, so don’t make it out to be one.

    Also,

    If you stopped cheering for the team because of your dislike of Pete Chiarelli, and you deem him incompetent because you believe you understand what it takes to field a winning NHL franchise more than someone with some actual job experience in the field..

    In my business I know people who run companies much larger than the Oilers in terms of revenues. There are a number of them that I wouldn’t hire. There are a number of them who I have a lot of respect for and fear competing against them.

    Again, its not an either/or prospect.

    Having a job doesn’t mean you’re good at it, even at the executive level.

    Often people get positive “job ability” assigned to them when the key component of the success of their business was actually out of their control.

    The year the Bruins won the Cup Thomas put up a .940 in the playoffs.

    Chiarelli gets lauded for winning a Cup, but there’s an argument that he pissed away enough value that he didn’t win more.

    He gets here and pisses away value with a firehose (Reinhart trade, Hall trade)

    Oilers are still better because there are more Actual NHLer on the team and a better goalie.

    But is Chiarelli adding more value to the team than he is spending? It doesn’t look like it.

    Also,

    And you know what is more exciting that Connor McDavid? A Connor McDavid shift followed by a Taylor Hall shift.

    Even better, that team would win more games.

    This is it in a nutshell.

  144. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    You really need to use Relative numbers when comparing players on different teams.

    Basically you are saying that if a player has a better raw GF% than another, that means he’s better.

    If that’s the case then there are 257 NHL players who are better than McDavid because they had a better GF% than he did last year.

    Do you really believe that?

    This also shows the murky alleys you go down when using one number to compare players.

    Even if you used Relative GF% you need to account for strength of team.

    McDavid had a +9% RelGF% which was 68th in the NHL.

    Is he the 68th best players?

    Are Letehra and Stempniak better because they have a better number here?

    Careful what you state to be true.

  145. Woodguy says:

    OmJo: This.

    My views of this team is bitter-sweet. I’m an Oiler fan, so I like when we win. But I don’t like it as much anymore. The price Chiarelli paid to make us a mediocre team wasn’t worth it IMO. We went from 2006-2009 being a mediocre team.

    I wanted this team to be the next Chicago Blackhawks, a perrenial winner. Not the next San Jose Sharks – ie a team that makes the playoffs year after year but fail to make it past the hump and win the cup.

    The organisation didn’t value having a Connor McDavid and Taylor Hall on the same team, opting instead to emulate the Bruins and Sharks rather than the Penguins and Blackhawks. As everybody is talking about the game speeding up, we’re now going backwards and getting bigger and slower.

    With all that said, I’ll always cheer for the Oilers. They’re our team. But I won’t pretend like they are infallible and praise them for making decisions that leave me shaking my head in frustration.

    I officially love you.

    Just so you know.

  146. Woodguy says:

    GMB3,

    Don’t you primarily talk about Taylor Hall and the trade though? Something that’s proven to be a sore spot on this blog. I dunno. LT’s place LT’s rules I personally just think it gets old hearing the same bitterness every time you post.

    Those exciting Taylor Hall shifts where he turned the puck over at the blue line, or on the half wall, managed to fall down and barely make it back across the red line in time to see the goal light flash on.

    Or those exciting zone entries where he fired a muffin into the tendy’s chest. Those exciting .GIFs of soaking Eakins.

    Well thanks for letting me know to skip your posts as you destroyed any credibility you may have had with this gem.

  147. stevezie says:

    Georges: You don’t waste ANY years of Lebron James’ career.

    We agree on this.

    Bruce Wayne: They sound like the Lumineers, if the Lumineers were good.

    The lumineers are the Nickleback of folk, and i think that undersells Nickleback.

  148. PhrankLee says:

    One thing I like about having both Klefbom and Larsson is when PC does finally pull the trigger on a #1D he isn’t worried about LH or RH.

    I think he calculated he would have until the deadline this year to secure that guy with any assets he had at his disposal.

    I do not pick them for the playoffs this year even with the sweet start. I think the plan is to get close and eek into the playoffs if possible.

    I cant help but get the feeling that a lot of people expect President’s Cup winners until forever but I cannot see that happening. Anywhere.

    Get to the dance and damn near anything can happen. Give big games to a guy like CMD. That’s what he is here to do.

    I don’t think anyone had the idea that they would go undefeated this year. I have them at 9 points above .500 in the Hunter Death March.

    If they hit .500 or better hockey this year that is a MASSIVE improvement. Hall be damned. I’d rather squeak into playoffs than be out by mid October.

  149. Georges says:

    Woodguy,

    You missed the part where I said these numbers are mostly for fun and I don’t know what kind of differences matter. Also the part about applying standard statistical tests to non-stationary distributions. But that’s cool. What I really wanted to establish is that Stempniak is better than McDavid.

    I’m not sure I understand the logic or math of relative numbers. For another day.

    You said above that Thomas went .940 when the Bruins won the Cup. Quick went .946 when the Kings won their first Cup according to Wikipedia. So, Kings (analytics dark horse) good, Bruins (GM’ed by Chiarelli) lucky. The heart wants the numbers it wants.

    I agree you should be careful about what you state to be true. Remember when I pointed out the problems with the work around the predictive value of Corsi. You told me that the problem had been solved and “we moved on.” You suggested that there was plenty of evidence and I Google it or check Tulsky. Tulsky links to JLikens, who, again, didn’t study the in-season predictive value of Corsi. He did something else. So I guess I’m still looking. Which is a little concerning, because something that fundamental should be easier to find. Wouldn’t it be a top 3 commandment?

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