LOST LIKE SUMMER WAGES

The Edmonton Oilers lost to the Arizona Coyotes yesterday afternoon at Rogers Place. This isn’t breaking news, although at least the venue has changed (no more Rexall frustration!). I attended with Mrs. Lowetide, it was her first trip to the new building. Her review? Loved the ballpark, still worries about Klefbom (I suspect it is not a Motherly worry), thinks McDavid should play all the shifts and believes the Coyotes are ruining hockey. I agreed with her on everything, as always. My thanks to Kerry McGowan for the tickets, we had a blast!

  • Todd McLellan: “They have tremendous structure & rely on it to have success, but we had plenty of chances to win.”

cyber_monday_ad

GAH! DAMMIT! YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-7-2 goal differential -1
  • Oilers after 23, 2015: 7-14-2, goal differential -13
  • Oilers after 23, 2016: 12-9-2, goal differential +9

I am always looking for things to add to Edmonton’s inner circle cluster of winning, but so far it is just McDavid, Talbot and skate around hoping nothing goes in. The closest I can come to a third bullet point is young Oscar Klefbom, who does appear to be emerging as an offensively helpful fellow (along with good defense). Long way to go, record still good and no one should panic. I imagine frustration is flourishing in the coach’s office and the general manager gets less than four hours of sleep a night.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

defense-no-27

  • Sekera—Russell were 17-10 together, Sekera adlibbed with Benning for 2-0 in 28 seconds. They were 4-3 with McDavid. Nuge 6-2 in 4:10 with this pair, Sekera +1, four shots for the duo and four takeaways, three giveaways. The Coyotes are exhausting, I hope they all end up in the same old folks home and drive each other crazy. Pair was 4-1 against Hanzal, 5-7 against Rieder.
  • Nurse—Benning were -1 each, Benning hit five guys and there were some blocked shots. We can chat about this all day, but the second goal against involved Darnell Nurse and Jordan Eberle, with Patrick Maroon also in photo. I saw the play live, and then re-watched it several times. Pretty sure Darnell’s mark is the guy along the wall (speculation, perhaps McLellan wants the D to check down) and he pursued the right player. We will talk about more in the Eberle spot, but the issue re: Nurse was execution and contain. If we assume he made the right decision, execution was a mess. Nurse was 8-3 against OEL, that’s some number.
  • Klefbom—Larsson went 15-15 together, blocked eight shots and were -1 on the night. Larsson took two penalties, one a rather effective elbow and the other a hook on a hail Mary that worked for AZ. They were 3-6 with McDavid, 4-8 with the Nuge. They were 6-10 against Hanzal. Klefbom sliding down for offensive chances is now officially a thing. A very nice wrinkle.

OILERS FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

oilers-forwards-no-27

  • McDavid played with lots of wingers, including Leon. The Corsis: Lucic 13-9 in 14:10; Leon 11-4 in 8:07; JP 9-9 in 8:25. Leon-McDavid went 4-1 in HDSCs, I hope we see them again on Tuesday. Part of 97’s difficulty yesterday comes in the hooking and interference applied by the Coyotes. They kind of remind me of the Flyers of the mid-70s, who got away with all manner of crap because you could have called a penalty on every play. The cumulative effect is that McDavid has very little room—and the solution is for his linemates (and secondary lines) to take advantage. We haven’t seen it yet.
  • Connor McDavid had three or four great chances, but did not cash. The real problem for the Oilers? It is always about 97, and that is unfair to the player. These other dice bouncing around in the car need to get their acts together, especially at 5×5.
  • The Oilers power play is going to cost them the playoffs. Pretty sure.
  • I think we can see there are two bona fide lines coming, Lucic—97—Leon and the next line we will discuss.
  • Maroon—Nuge—Eberle had eight shots on goal and a starring role in the GWG. They were 4-5 against Hanzal, 4-5 against McGinn. I think this line will have success if they stay together for a time.
  • Jordan Eberle is back in the dog house (did he ever leave?) for indecision on the Arizona game winner. My take is this: Once Eberle decided that Nurse was going to the wall, he needed to check down immediately and get position. He doesn’t do it. So, and I do think we can and should talk about the execution by Nurse (and why he was where he was), the buck stops at 14.
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian went 8-4 and played a dandy game. Kassian early and Letestu late even had reasonable scoring chances. Hendricks took every defensive zone draw (LH side) I can recall, and he blocked a shot with what might have been his face. The trio went 6-2 against Hanzal, or at least Letestu did. I like this line. If you are having issues with this trio’s performance last night, I think you need to ask yourself what the expectations should be of a 4line. Letestu and Hendricks worked on the PK, and Hendricks was terrific in the dot.
  • Drake Caggiula went 16-4 with Pouliot and 10-2 with Jesse Puljujarvi. I liked the wingers a lot, but Caggiula looked like the 12th best forward Edmonton dressed yesterday. I think he may need some time on the farm.
  • Pouliot getting this kind of push (veteran plays against softer opposition) might be one of two things: Oilers trying to get him scoring for their sakes, or as a showcase. Not successful against Hanzal (0-4), Pouliot got a steady diet of Martinook (7-2), Dvorak (6-1) and Dauphin (4-1). He also got 2PP minutes and 1PK, and have five shots on goal. Interesting.
  • The Oilers need to win possession on offensive faceoffs against the Coyotes, and 97 was at 38 percent. That could be a reason Leon moved up, but I am hopeful the trio spends some time together. Let’s see if the Oilers can have one dominant line, and see if Leon can cash those brilliant passes.
  • Natural Stat Trick
  • NHL.com
  • HockeyStats.ca

LOOKS CAN BE DECEIVING

standings-nov-28

Get a good long look at this ranking, yesterday’s loss means the California three can pass the Oilers with that game in hand. Don’t panic, this can be saved, but it does speak to the lack of balance this team once again entered the season with in 2016-17. Even with Connor McDavid, the Oilers needed more substantial RWs, and if Leon is moving up that solves one problem while creating another (Drake Caggiula is not ready based on early returns).

I picked the Oilers for fifth in the division, eleventh in the conference and twenty-third overall. There have been times this season where that projection looked shy, but if you run this division’s record over the last 10 games, it is easy to see the market correcting:

  1. San Jose Sharks 6-3-1, 13 points
  2. Los Angeles Kings 6-3-1, 13 points
  3. Anaheim Ducks 5-3-2, 12 points
  4. Vancouver Canucks 5-4-1, 11 points
  5. Calgary Flames 5-5-0, 10 points
  6. Arizona Coyotes 4-4-2, 10 points
  7. Edmonton Oilers 3-6-1, 7 points

The difference in many ways is that the Oilers are still the team that considers itself building. There are 31 rookie skaters in the Pacific Division this year, Edmonton has four (Jesse Puljujarvi, Matt Benning, Anton Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula). That is around average for the division, but the Oilers group all appear inside the division’s Top 20 (among rookies) for time on ice per game.

OBSERVATION DECK

After the GA in the third period, we did not see Eberle again.

POSITIVES

The Oilers were better to my eye in the second game, that is reflected in the Corgi’s:

  • Friday: 50-47, 51.55
  • Sunday: 56-39, 58.95

Oilers should be the team walking away with three points out of the weekend, opportunity missed. Todd McLellan credits the Coyotes goalie, I remain unconvinced of the second and third lines. Every game the Oilers audition Drake Caggiula is a game they are devoting to the rebuild—and are willing to give up points in the standings. I see no other way to frame this issue. I am not picking on Caggiula, but this is not the time to break him in. Perhaps the time lost from the injury has put him too far behind, and a trip to Bakersfield should be considered. Either way, the names of the men who are not contributing with consistent 5×5 offense is alarming and expensive. Added to the addled power play, and this Edmonton Oilers team remains all about Connor McDavid when it really shouldn’t be that way. We wait.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun and busy show, beginning at 10 this morning. TSN 1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Derek Taylor, TSN. What a Grey Cup! Instant classic! Henry! We respect you!
  • Darryl Sittler. Legendary player has a new book out, we will discuss it along with his brilliant 1976.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers lose two to the Desert Dogs, Grey Cup brilliance.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

144 Responses to "LOST LIKE SUMMER WAGES"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    I really would like to see Drake and Jesse sent to Bakersfield. Neither player are hard on the puck. The play seems to die on there stick. Time down there would help them build for their futre and the Oilers.

    Anton deserves to be here. Having Anton helps in the PK since Hendricks is looking slow. Anton is our best faceoff guy and this would give us options. Our PP needs to start winning more faceoffs and Letestu has been used here before. Lots of plus options having Anton here.

  2. Goilers99 says:

    “The Coyotes are exhausting, I hope they all end up in the same old folks home and drive each other crazy.”

    Priceless

  3. Confused says:

    LT: I would agree that cags looks a bit lost but Drai is also not convincing against the soft parade.

    And McDavid cannot win enough face-offs draws, so needs a winger that can help.

    JP is for third line than first line at the moment.

    So we have a hole and a problem either (a) stick with cags; (b) lander 3C; and a (C) in-season trade.

    What do you think the way to go is?

  4. jake70 says:

    LT, I was one very soon after game’s end who said 14 was not on during the empty net period of play. I based that on a snapshot (paused the playback) and identified who was on the screen – I can’t remember at what minute mark however. I must have done that prior to 1:19 minutes left. Wasn’t trying to mislead.

  5. Offside says:

    I try to look on the bright side and accept that some teams just have another teams number. But this Arizona streak is beyond ridiculous. I’m not even sure we should use Arizona games to come to any conclusions since these results are so bizarre. To quote the kids these days, “I can’t even”.

    On on unrelated note. I was thinking of getting Apple TV and cutting my cable package. Does anyone here know how I can do this and keep watching Oiler games on my big screen? They are the only cable tv my wife and I watch

  6. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!, nice to hear Mrs. LT’s scouting report as well!

    – As you know, I was never a fan of Caggiula: did not understand the hype on a passed-over small F: LT says: “Every game the Oilers audition Drake Caggiula is a game they are devoting to the rebuild”

    – Even if I didn’t like him, the fact that he’s in the market for the #12 or #13 spot: that’s not bad..

  7. linkfromhyrule says:

    I went to the game last night, despite all of the warning signs (1pm start, Arizona, last place team in the west). We outshot them, and Arizona didn’t really look dangerous, but the Oilers did not look dominant in that game. Brain farts galore. They couldn’t adjust to Mike Smith destroying their dump in plays, nor did they really challenge him all that much. They had a lot of trouble with that awful chip and chase play Arizona does so well.

    Klef looked pretty bad for large parts of the game. That d-zone ring around the boards on the powerplay was a 5 alarm gaffe which very easily could have resulted in a goal against.

    Russell’s GA was unlucky, but this is exactly the sort of thing his bad possession numbers predict. He is in these situations more than other players, therefore he faces a higher likelihood of these fluky GA.

    Scratch Hendricks and Caggiula, now please.

    Chiarelli made us a one line team in the interest of “balance,” but man the rest of the team looks bad.

  8. dcsj says:

    LT, I wasn’t able to watch yesterday, but it has seemed to me that often our guys are looking to pass to Conner rather than make the play themselves. Am I seeing it wrong, or is that part of them learning to take advantage of what he brings? By that I mean, Conner brings tons of skill and also makes chances for every one else.

  9. 99266in87 says:

    “Not a motherly worry” Dreamy dreaming again lol. LT, your the greatest.

  10. dustrock says:

    The one interesting thing McLellan said is that he felt the team was tired early and just out of it.

    They have had an easy schedule in terms of facing back-to-backs, but apparently they haven’t had a break of more than 1 day for a while, and it looks like that continues until December 13th, then they next play on December 17th.

    McLellan cancelled a scheduled skate today to give them a chance to rest.

  11. Atc-Nate says:

    Offside:
    I try to look on the bright side and accept that some teams just have another teams number. But this Arizona streak is beyond ridiculous. I’m not even sure we should use Arizona games to come to any conclusions since these results are so bizarre. To quote the kids these days, “I can’t even”.

    On on unrelated note. I was thinking of getting Apple TV and cutting my cable package. Does anyone here know how I can do this and keep watching Oiler games on my big screen? They are the only cable tv my wife and I watch

    That’s what I currently use with no cable or satellite package. There’s some limitations. You will need to buy the NHL gamecenter package via NHL.com which is $180 + tx. You can watch all NHL games on home and away feed via your NHL app icon on Apple TV.

    The issue is they black-out Alberta games if you live in Alberta… You can side step this by buying an IP that shows American. Costs about $35 a year and you just follow the provider’s instructions. It’s not that difficult to do if you’re half technologically smart. If you have any further questions, you can shoot me an email. Nate.Curlett@gmail.com

  12. frjohnk says:

    RE: 2nd Yotes goal.
    There are guys with more knowledge than me but I’ll give it a crack.

    https://www.nhl.com/video/mcginn-gives-coyotes-lead-late/t-283194228/c-46793103

    Just a quick note on how ( I believe) the Oilers defend in their own zone and then what transpired.

    I see there are many times in a game when the puck is in the Oilers corner, the Oilers will deploy two players there to gain possession. Sometimes it is 2 Dmen, sometimes its 1 Dmen and 1 forward
    ( usually the centerman)
    The third guy down low will cover the front of the net or the other opposing forward.

    The two wingers ( or the guys covering the point) will collapse down low to basically where EBERLE was. ( Not sure where the hell Maroon was as he had more than enough time to get back in the zone, he wasnt in the picture until the puck was in the net)

    At the 0:01 second mark, Benning and Nurse did what ever Oiler Dmen do in a game. 1st Dman (Benning) goes in to battle with opposing forward with puck, 2nd Dman ( Nurse) provides support.
    Nuge and EBERLE are where you want them to be. Maroon?

    At the 0:02 second mark, Benning no longer battling for the puck but is with his man, Nurse sees where the puck is ( corner) and goes for it. 2 Dmen in the corner, 2 forwards down low protecting the slot = normal. Maroon?

    At the 0:03 second mark, Benning is with his man, Nurse is going to the corner while Yote (Duclair) has more speed and gets to the corner first, Nuge is breaking to the point to cut off that option, EBERLE in front of net but kinda breaking to the point. EBERLE thinking that Nurse is going push Duclair and/or the puck to the point? Thats my theory. Maroon?

    At the 0:04 second mark, Benning is still with his man, Nurse is tracking Duclair, EBERLE in front, Nuge to the point. Maroon ?

    At the 0:05 second mark, Benning is still with his man, Duclair made a quick turn on Nurse as it seemed like Nurse was not expecting Duclair to reverse and once Duclair made his turn Nurse was nowhere near Duclair to make a play against him. EBERLE still in front knowing there was a Yote in front, EBERLE’s only chance is to block a shooting lane, Nuge covering point. Maroon?

    At the 0:06 second mark, Benning is still with his man in the corner, Duclair passes the puck in front, Nurse is not even close to a stick length away from him, Nuge covering point, EBERLE trying to block passing lane in front, Maroon is finally in the picture.

    At the 0:07 second mark, the puck is net. If Maroon is 0.5 second faster to the slot, he probably ties up McGinn and we are heading to OT.

    Faults on the play.

    Nurse- If you believe that Nurse should not have gone in the corner, then I have two questions for you. Why do we see 2 Oiler Dmen in the same corner many times during the game? And if Nurse did not go into the corner but stayed in front of the net, how much time would Duclair have had then? Nurse’s fault in this play, was that he should have put himself in the position to flush Duclair towards the point.

    EBERLE- Even if Nurse would have flushed Duclair with the puck or the puck to the point, if there is a point shot, we see that EBERLE is the only guy in front of the Oilers net ( with a Yote) and EBERLE is breaking away from the net. Because he was breaking away from the net, when he realized there was going to be a play at the Oilers net, his only option was to block a passing lane. EBERLE should not have been breaking away from the Oilers net until they had possession.

    Maroon- More urgency in getting back.

    Now we can say that it was a defensive breakdown by the Oilers and there was, but we also need to realize that Duclair made two great plays, first reversing with the puck in the corner and having his head up as he came out and made a great pass to McGinn. McGinn made a great play finding the open space so Duclair could pass to him. If McGinn just goes to the front of the net, EBERLE probably intercepts the pass.

  13. The Trade Guy says:

    I get that Krueger and Renney’s power-plays had higher shooting percentages and some of that might have been lady luck but my goodness I don’t like how the Oilers setup their powerplay.

    I don’t like McDavid on the half wall. I’d prefer him behind the net or down low more dishing sweet cross ice passes and I’d like them to try and use Klefbom’s slapper more and maybe get Pool Party in a set play like the Anson Carter one timer.

    Try something else Woodcroft. This PP is costing the Oilers wins.

  14. russ99 says:

    I’m thinking we need a good two-way veteran center worse than another scoring winger.

    Lots of players are interchangeable then.

    If we run:

    Lucic – McDavid – Draisaitl
    Maroon – RNH – Eberle
    Pouliot – Center X – Kassian

    Then the fourth line at home:

    Slepyshev – Letestu – Pitlick

    And on the road/ vs. trap teams at home

    Hendricks – Letestu – Caggiula

    Send Puljujarvi down already. I love his game, but he needs to start creating chances and scoring in traffic to get to his potential. If he’s not playing with McDavid, he’ll get less chances to do so at the NHL level.

  15. LMHF#1 says:

    I was rather surprised to see a large contingent of support for the Oilers systems play – which I find quite suspect.

    The most discussed part was defensive coverage. I cannot support a defensive system that encourages chasing. Even the best defenders in the world can’t prevent gaps and wide open chances from the slot in that system. Asking wingers to do the C’s job also doesn’t work unless you have world-class players there – the Oilers do not.

    Their breakout is atrocious in at least half the games this year. It is clear that they have been told to play up the boards – even leaving the puck there without a player to get it in some instances. This happened in SJ with McLellan as well. It is far too easy to shut down and does not exploit the talent the Oilers have up front.

    The powerplay has been a mess save for some very brief moments. Why? A few reasons: there is no motion, they still need a big right handed shot, they set up the cross-crease pass improperly and never exploit McDavid’s exceptional talents behind the net.

    The PK has improved – after they abandoned strict adherence to that horrid system that saw everyone crossing over each other all the time.

    The break-in remains most concerning for me. They MUST drive the middle to have success. They rarely do.

    These are just a few of the areas that are problematic. I like McLellan’s overall philosophy and approach. He has the right attitude – but he has shown little ability to adapt systems play.

    Why are people frustrated? Because this team appears good enough to be booting on a weak start by the Pacific and they are squandering it. Need to wake up in a damn hurry.

  16. russ99 says:

    LMHF#1,

    We’ll be fine, day games are just brutal for this team for some reason, and Phoenix has our number.

    We can start by blowing the Leafs out of the building tomorrow night.

  17. JimmyV1965 says:

    The decision to keep playing the Drake is confounding. He really hasn’t contributed anything, yet he still plays. I wonder if there were promises made to him.

  18. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1:
    I was rather surprised to see a large contingent of support for the Oilers systems play – which I find quite suspect.

    The most discussed part was defensive coverage. I cannot support a defensive system that encourages chasing. Even the best defenders in the world can’t prevent gaps and wide open chances from the slot in that system. Asking wingers to do the C’s job also doesn’t work unless you have world-class players there – the Oilers do not.

    Yes. If Nurse is that far out of position, that is a problem imo. It was a weird play, because I think that’s where the coach wants him, so not sure blaming the player is the way to go (I know you are not blaming the player, but wanted to make it clear).

  19. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide: Yes. If Nurse is that far out of position, that is a problem imo. It was a weird play, because I think that’s where the coach wants him, so not sure blaming the player is the way to go (I know you are not blaming the player, but wanted to make it clear).

    Precisely. Could he have made the play better? Of course, but it appears he did what the coach wants. If that is true, this is a big problem. That structure will not work – especially with this roster. There have been numerous instances already this year where the Oilers have 3 players back and no one takes the man in the most dangerous place on the ice. That is not a recipe for success.

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    Remember when +/- was a meaningless stat for Eberle cos the entire team was terrible?

    Well, now the team has a positive goal differential and 60% of the team are even or + players including Klefbom, Lucic and McDavid who presumably play fairly stiff competition.

    Eberle? Dead last on the team at -6.

    Eberle’s poor defensive play is a thing. Full stop. And 25 goals a season doesn’t make up for his lack of results in the other 2/3rds of the rink. Yes, he’s a talented goal scorer but he gives up more than he gets.

    The reason this player remains a whipping boy? Because his sins are ‘lack of effort’ sins. And most coaches will agree, those are the most egregious sins.

    These mental lapses in the defensive zone should not be occuring for a player 7 seasons into his NHL career. How many GWGs from the opposition because of these lapses before Chiarelli’s had enough? I daresay he’s on a short rope now and deservedly so.

  21. Woogie63 says:

    Right now I see RNH as a 180 foot player, he needs to be much more effective in the last 20 feet or he will settle in as third line centre.

  22. Roughneck says:

    Woodcroft should go for tea with the guy whose name is on the rink at UofA campus.

  23. Atc-Nate says:

    I have tried to take a relaxed approach to the last 2 losses. Yes, it sucks to lose to the 30th place team. However, the old 20-20-40 rule seems to take effect and we are above par.

    20 guaranteed wins, 20 guaranteed losses. 40 up in the air. These 2 and the Buffalo game are the losses. Washington, St. Louis, Chicago, those are some of the up in the airs. Heck those are probably guaranteed losses that we’ve managed to win… Not something we are used to around here.

    Balance folks. Seems McClellan is still finding his way with this roster. Would I do things the same as he does? Good Lord no…. But it doesn’t matter. We. Are. Winning. (Kinda)

    Call me crazy for even thinking this but I’d love to see something along the lines of 93-97-98 (The 90s line woot), leaving 27-29-14 for line two. Leaves you a mix for the 3rd and 4th and for sure leaves Caggiula in the middle, all to see if you can light a fire under RNH by putting him with McDavid.

    Why? 2 things stick in my mind, first RnH had a give and go (edit: with McD) on the PP one day that RNH ripped home. Next, several games back I watched RNH come in right side short handed, take a little wrister that went off the right pad and RNH was already where the rebound was coming because he shot to out the rebound to the slot. Another shot and Pou almost cashed the rebound. He’s the 2nd smartest forward on the team. He’s always ready seems like and I think he might be the only player on the team “ready” for a McDavid pass, because it’s pretty certain that so far about 90% of those slotted beside him aren’t ready and can’t finish.

  24. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LT I went to the link you posted under “Observation Deck” above for Oilers TOI & it in fact shows EBERLE never saw the ice again after 16:20 of the third (the goal). It was the next number down, #19, who played those two big shifts down the stretch.

  25. ohhell says:

    frjohnk,

    Pretty sure Maroon was late to the party because Lucic was late in changing. If memory serves me correct (was at the game), Lucic went for a payback hit on the halfway in the Ozone before leaving the ice which put him well behind the play.

  26. Diablo says:

    Offside,

    I also “cut the cable” and use an Apple TV – great device!
    Living in Winnipeg I don’t have the same issues with blacked out Oiler’s games.
    Only problem with using a US IP simulator is that Netflix doesn’t seem to like it … ATC-Nate, have you found any way around this?

    You do need a fairly quick Internet connection though. I was on a 50 Mbps service and would get the occasional lag and loss of resolution.. Switched over to a 150 Mbps service and its running perfect now. One other thing to note – if you are pumping out sound to a receiver or soundbar, the Apple TV remote can only control devices that are compatible with HDMI-CEC. Other than that its a cinch to set up.

  27. frjohnk says:

    ohhell:
    frjohnk,

    Pretty sure Maroon was late to the party because Lucic was late in changing.If memory serves me correct (was at the game), Lucic went for a payback hit on the halfway in the Ozone before leaving the ice which put him well behind the play.

    Here is another angle. Maroon was hanging near the point.
    https://www.nhl.com/video/recap-ari-2-edm-1/t-277753022/c-46794403

    If EBERLE is left handed, he probably intercepts the pass
    https://www.nhl.com/video/recap-ari-2-edm-1/t-277753022/c-46794403

  28. Jethro Tull says:

    *To the tune of Bowie’s Fame*

    Blaaaaaame

    Blaaaaaame

    Etc.

  29. bendelson says:

    I hate to move the conversation away from Eberle, but…

    I was surprised I am unable to sell a pair of tickets to the TO game on Tuesday… until I investigated a little further. It turns out there are over 80seats up for sale in my section alone! I want to say it’s b/c (like me) many Oiler fans avoid TO games (with their obnoxious fanbase taking over the building) but suspect this is actually the new normal at Roger’s Place. Too many seasons tickets sold to too few people? Does this make any sense? Perhaps it has been this way for some time now and simply went unnoticed (by me). Something seems askew…

  30. Woodguy says:

    Are we sure Pouliot is healthy?

    He ended last year with a nasty shoulder injury.

    Maybe he’s not all the way back yet?

  31. D says:

    I’m also annoyed at Eberle for wasting away the previous powerplay. He basically dangled the puck . . . forever and did nothing with it.

  32. russ99 says:

    We lost 2-1, my issues are not about allowing the second goal, which sucked, but most games where we allow 2 goals we’ll either win or get the Bettman point.

    Rather how we only got one ourselves, and that the offense was asleep and played into the trap for half the game until the lines were juggled.

  33. Offside says:

    Diablo,

    “You can side step this by buying an IP that shows American” ATC-Nate. Thanks man, I am looking to make the switch prior to Xmas. Being an Edmontonian, this blackout feature concerns me. Do I buy the American IP though game centre?

    yeah Diablo – my kids watch Netflix more than teletoon or disney channel so this is an unexpected concern. What do you mean Netflix doesn’t like American IP?

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    russ99:
    We lost 2-1, my issues are not about allowing the second goal, which sucked, but most games where we allow 2 goals we’ll either win or get the Bettman point.

    Rather how we only got one ourselves, and that the offense was asleep and played into the trap for half the game until the lines were juggled.

    Bingo! We have a winner! Great post.

    Bettman must have been in ecstasy watching this game. Parity, here we come, he’s thinking. And all i had to do is tell the refs to stop calling holding and interference and if they do, even up the call! Genius! Smrt!

  35. Skeeziks says:

    I am beginning to think that the Oiler players, like the opposition, are too busy watching McDavid instead of actually playing hockey.

    He is a marvellous talent but he needs players play their game so that he can effectively play his game.

    His teammates cannot defer to him every time and expect to succeed.

  36. Confused says:

    Jason Gregor:

    Consistency, but that will only come from more experience. They still have a very young team with ten players with fewer than 135 NHL games experience: McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Pitlick, Caggiula, Slepyshev, Nurse, Klefbom Benning and Davidson when he returns.

  37. Pink Socks says:

    Fayne on waivers

  38. frjohnk says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 53s53 seconds ago

    The #Oilers have placed Mark Fayne on waivers.

    EDIT: what pink socks said 🙂

  39. RPG says:

    Is Fayne on waivers? *ducks and hides*

  40. Woogie63 says:

    Right now

    Slepyshev and Pitlick are more impactful than Pouliot, JP and Caggulia

    Play the best team should always be the starting point. Practice and Bakersfield are where you develop and an improve players

  41. Pink Socks says:

    Offside,

    I use a VPN as well. Being in Idaho we get alot of games blacked out but when the VPN shows my location as New York it is all good. ExpressVPN is a bit more expensive but it has been much quicker for me over some others.

  42. russ99 says:

    Interesting. I wonder what the corresponding move might be.

    If he goes unclaimed as we suspect, and his contract buried in Bakersfield, how much cap room does that free up?

  43. Melman says:

    Jethro Tull,

    This is bang on. If we agree/concede that the lack of balance is down to 3 roster spots . One didn’t make a difference the last 2 games; the RHSPPQB would be good, but lordy there is enough offensive talent to expect better; missing vet 3C/RW should not result in 1 of 4 pts against the Desser Dogs

  44. McSorley33 says:

    While 19 year old McDavid is in an Epic battle with OEL……

    Sportsnet said the 1st Overall selection in the 2011 NHL draft generated 1 shot on net against
    the Coyotes D in the first 2 periods of hockey yesterday.

    NHL.COM is saying Leon Draisaitl recorded 0 shots on goal against the Coyotes D.

    Luke Schenn plays D for the 29th place Arizona Coyotes.

  45. frjohnk says:

    russ99:
    Interesting. I wonder what the corresponding move might be.

    If he goes unclaimed as we suspect, and his contract buried in Bakersfield, how much cap room does that free up?

    950k

    EDIT:
    The cap room saved is basically Gryba’s cap hit.

  46. Confused says:

    Think it is more of a go prove you deserve a game move.

    Play well in the AHL and we will see, otherwise ……

    Do not think we believe that there is any chance someone will take him.

  47. godot10 says:

    1) The Oilers are waiving Fayne because he needs playing time in Bakersfield and don’t have a free roster spot to spare for a condidtioning stint. And if someone claims him, then don’t care.

    2) Todd McLellan is a #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach. The coach plays favourites, and shuns his undesirables. He overplays McDavid…his uber-favorite. Caggiula is one of his favourites. Ditto Hendricks. Ditto Kassian. His power play sucks. His systems are too rigid. He has no feel for matchups, or lines, or the game from the bench. No wins above replacement. We are stuck with him, fortunately or unfortunately, for two more years at least. As least he isn’t a bad coach I predict that we will be disappointed at the mediocrity of the coach and the team because of it.

    3) Nurse was the closest Oiler to an open puck, so he left his man to go get it. Duclair, who Eberle was covering, was the closest Coyote to the puck, went to go get the puck. Duclair won the puck battle. Nurse made the right decision, lost a puck battle, that happens. Eberle did not switch off of Duclair to cover the guy Nurse left. Duclair left, and Eberle decided he didn’t have to cover anybody, instead of realizing that the guy Nurse had been covering was now his man. That goal was 100% on Eberle.

  48. kinger_OIL says:

    Confused:
    Jason Gregor:

    Consistency, but that will only come from more experience. They still have a very young team with ten players with fewer than 135 NHL games experience: McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Pitlick, Caggiula, Slepyshev, Nurse, Klefbom Benning and Davidson when he returns.

    Of these players:
    1) bona-fide players:
    McD, Drai, Klef, (although Klef and Drai are too high the batting order)
    2) should be playing protected minutes:
    Ptilick, Sleppy, Nurse, Davidson
    3) on a playoff team would be in minors (and getting some cups of coffee):
    Caggulia, Banning, Pulju

    – I’d say there are too many 2’s and 3’s, and too many 3’s on our NHL roster full stop.

    – But still way better than last 10 years….

  49. frjohnk says:

    I wonder if Fayne would get picked up if a team is looking for a player to expose to for expansion.

  50. Primetime says:

    ohhell:
    frjohnk,

    Pretty sure Maroon was late to the party because Lucic was late in changing.If memory serves me correct (was at the game), Lucic went for a payback hit on the halfway in the Ozone before leaving the ice which put him well behind the play.

    Yep, happened right in front of me…no need for the hit and put him way out of the play. Definitely late for the change. Not sure it affected the goal though, Maroon was staying back by the point man…think he had time to hustle to McGinn if he felt like it was his responsibility…think he was sure Ebs had him

  51. judgedrude says:

    LT was at the game, and my post was a late pass for moderation (or maybe he didn’t like the music choice). So, I’ll repost today for others to enjoy.

    OK Go! – Breakout D From Sweden (“Klefbom sliding down for offensive chances is now officially a thing”)

    OK Go – Recorded breakout album in Sweden

    Combining to give the Oilers history from the Discography of OK Go:

    Here it goes again

    The Muppet Show

    White Knuckles

    Upside Down & Inside Out

    This Too Shall Pass

    Needing / Getting

    The One Moment

    Does that properly capture the last number of years?

  52. Primetime says:

    frjohnk:
    I wonder if Fayne would get picked up if a team is looking for a player to expose to for expansion.

    This is my concern that I voiced in a previous thread. What is the Oilers plan for the same thing? If they don’t play Fayne for 40 games this year (or 70 combined over last 2 I think?), who else meets the criteria to expose?

    Maybe they convince Gryba to sign for a cheap 1 year deal, start playing him, and convince him he doesn’t have a better shot elsewhere?

    My main concern is that their plan is to sign Russell without a no move clause but make it so ridiculously expensive in hopes that Vegas won’t take him. Of course they won’t and we will be stuck with the contract…

    I think Russell has been good for this team, but I’m really scared of what that means from a contract point of view going forward

  53. leadfarmer says:

    Regarding that second goal against. If that is really our system then why does it seem that Nurse gets caught more than everyone else combined chasing a forward. If our system is having a 5’10 winger protecting Ricky’s box then we have a much bigger problem on our hands then just one bad play. Dmen should always cover the front of the net. The wingers should be the ones chasing.

  54. Bruce Wayne says:

    Primetime: This is my concern that I voiced in a previous thread.What is the Oilers plan for the same thing?If they don’t play Fayne for 40 games this year (or 70 combined over last 2 I think?), who else meets the criteria to expose?

    Maybe they convince Gryba to sign for a cheap 1 year deal, start playing him, and convince him he doesn’t have a better shot elsewhere?

    My main concern is that their plan is to sign Russell without a no move clause but make it so ridiculously expensive in hopes that Vegas won’t take him.Of course they won’t and we will be stuck with the contract…

    I think Russell has been good for this team, but I’m really scared of what that means from a contract point of view going forward

    Fayne meets the requirements right now. Davidson needs 18 games, Gryba needs 3.

    No one is going to pick Fayne up, but if they do, there are options.

    Your fear about Russell is very legitimate. You just know they are going to misinterpret his play and give him a long term contract.

    The return on the Eberle trade and what they do with Russell are the next signposts on Chiarelli–double agent.

  55. littleenglish says:

    For VPN users, you don’t actually need to run the VPN after starting up the match in Game Center as it only needs to see you connect via an out of market IP. So you can use a free one like Cyberghost to enter the game, then disconnect and enjoy regular connection speeds.

    As for Netflix, I believe using a DNS service still works.

  56. OF17 says:

    A bit off topic, but does anyone know of a place where you can sort stats by handedness? I’m trying to research potential RHC targets for the Oilers, but so far all I’ve found are places that sort by position.

  57. Little Poteet says:

    frjohnk,

    Not defending Maroon, but I seem to remember he came on for lucic who, while the puck was going the other way was busy throwing a retaliatory hit and chirping in the yotes zone. As soon as I saw him go after that I thought there is no way the LW is getting back on D in time.
    Just context

  58. flea says:

    littleenglish,

    I used gamecenter for several years, here are some tips of mine that may or may not still work.

    1. If you use a DNS service, buy it and enable it before purchasing Gamecenter. You will get international pricing then. Right now, I believe it is $99 for the rest of the year. It’s a lot cheaper than Rogers GCL.

    2. The games are not quite live. They run about 60 sec behind, so be prepared to kill any app alerts you have set up, and you’ll have to tell your friends that as well when they come over.

    3. Overall the performance is good. I was running really low end internet and I did have issues with buffering or image quality from time to time. Nothing that was bad for just individual viewing but I was always hesitant to invite people over.

    If you are buying 150MBPS internet plus a VPN service, at some point you have to look at whether is is actually cheaper than cable. I understand out of market people may see some value, but Center Ice sometimes gets discounted pricing throughout the year too.

    Rogers basically has made it that the simplest and quite possibly the cheapest way to watch hockey is getting it through cable.

    This year, I’m slumming it on a sportsnet now login from my mother in law who never uses the service. Not a terrible service but quality issues there too and again, it isn’t quite a live stream. But with two little ones I rarely get a chance to sit down for a whole game anyways, so SN Now has been adequate. Waiting for the Oilers to make me really want to get cable again!

  59. frjohnk says:

    Little Poteet:
    frjohnk,

    Not defending Maroon, but I seem to remember he came on for lucic who, while the puck was going the other way was busy throwing a retaliatory hit and chirping in the yotes zone. As soon as I saw him go after that I thought there is no way the LW is getting back on D in time.
    Justcontext

    If you watch the second video I put up, you will see Maroon is high up by the blue line. Had a lot of time to get back.

    I don’t think Nurse did anything other than what he is suppose to do.
    All Oilers Dmen are coached to do that.
    And you will find most teams do the same.

    If we are looking to point fingers all this goal. EBERLE is the first guy to be singled out. And by looking at TOI for the rest of the game, that’s what the coach felt as well.

    And as I mentioned earlier, Duclair and McGinn both made good plays, so props for them.

  60. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    2) Todd McLellan is a #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach. The coach plays favourites, and shuns his undesirables. He overplays McDavid…his uber-favorite. Caggiula is one of his favourites. Ditto Hendricks. Ditto Kassian. His power play sucks. His systems are too rigid. He has no feel for matchups, or lines, or the game from the bench. No wins above replacement. We are stuck with him, fortunately or unfortunately, for two more years at least. As least he isn’t a bad coach I predict that we will be disappointed at the mediocrity of the coach and the team because of it.

    @DTMAboutHeart has a coaches rating system based his xG for each player and then how the coach deploys him.

    Its a black box, but I thought you’d be interested to know that McLellan shows up in the bottom quarter of the coaches, with the team scoring less due to his usage compared to what they “should” score (for and against)

    Again, its a black box and I have no idea how he’s measuring anything, but his stuff is interesting.

  61. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Couple Thoughts

    1) Dear Commish Bettman, IF you want hockey to take off in the desert for the love of all things holy don’t play a trap system devoid of offence. Yes I’m a tad bitter my because my hockey team seems to thrive on shattering franchise “worst of the worst” stats lately but my goodness it is hard to watch Arizona play. New Jersey can get away with it because they have won Stanley Cups. Arizona has never won a cup, they have no entrenched fan base and that style of hockey is exactly the kind that drives fans away and does not bring them closer. Next time you have to buy the team (or apply the pressure to a municipal government near Phoenix for another arena) maybe think about replacing the coach along with the move. Signed, a Dejected Oilers fan.

    2) Can’t even get up the urge to try and walk folks back from the edge. Weird game, I felt the Oilers controlled play for basically the entire game but after the first goal I never thought things would end well. The Yotes have kryptonite and be damned if I know how to beat it.

    3) I feel bad for Eberle, so many chances lately, so snakebitten and then blown coverage on the GWG. Nothing else matters now, he wears that loss (and by extension the Oilers futility vs the Yotes for half a decade) and everything else is forgotten.

    4) I thought McLellan was very realistic in his post game presser (and I know that won’t fly well around here). There were lots of openings during the game but a whiff here, an extra pass there and my goodness high and wide there and well the game ends 2-1. Seems to be an allergy to taking shots in HDSC areas lately while shots from the outside come in buckets. The extra pass from guys like JP, Drai, Eberle, Nuge etc is getting frustrating. You do all that work to get into the slot or create space and then… you pass it off. I’m not sure if other teams experience the same jitterbugs about pulling the trigger but man, more than anything lately this has me pulling my hair and throwing a hat around the room.

    5)interesting to here that guys may be a bit tired. Took a look at the November schedule and thats a lot of flight time over 30 days. I guess it makes sense and if you’re already tired playing the Yotes is practically a death sentence. Not trying to make excuses but there was a reason the coach didn’t seem too bent out of shape last night. There’s a back to back coming up in December that sees them play in Philly on the 1st night and then in Minnesota the next. I’m no expert but a three hour flight time for a back to back seems damn near cruel. Penciling in a L for that one already.

    6) Very curious to see how CmD (and the Oilers generally) handle Kadri tomorrow night. Much like all of the weird little streaks that I’d like to see broken during the turn North the one I’m most looking forward to is when one of the perpetually knobs (Perry, Kessler, Kadri, Doan etc) takes iton the chin (or to the belly) for no other reason than “not anymore.” Its part of the game to shadow and torment sure but I remember one game years and years ago where after being sticked, held, clutched and grabbed, Crosby finally lost it and just went to town on some 3rd line centre off a draw. Not saying CmD needs to be the guy that does it but I’d like to see someone do it.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Fayne meets the requirements right now. Davidson needs 18 games, Gryba needs 3.

    They’d have to re-sign Gryba for next year, but I see no reason why he wouldn’t sign.

  63. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    Bruce Wayne,

    Fayne meets the requirements right now. Davidson needs 18 games, Gryba needs 3.

    They’d have to re-sign Gryba for next year, but I see no reason why he wouldn’t sign.

    Imagine the scenario if
    Fayne gets picked up on waivers
    Davidson is injured all year
    Gryba and Russell dont sign until after the expansion draft.

    I know the chances are extremely small, but its something to consider. And I bet the league will be looking to close as many loopholes as they can by the end of the year.

  64. Rocknrolla says:

    Stauffer saying Rogers Place will host the Ivan Hlinka Tourney every other year!

  65. CrazyCoach says:

    frjohnk: Now we can say that it was a defensive breakdown by the Oilers and there was, but we also need to realize that Duclair made two great plays, first reversing with the puck in the corner and having his head up as he came out and made a great pass to McGinn. McGinn made a great play finding the open space so Duclair could pass to him. If McGinn just goes to the front of the net, EBERLE probably intercepts the pass.

    And to add to this cluster, on the original play involving Benning, Nurse tries initially, to rim it out via backhand (never an easy move), and for whatever reason, the puck takes a bounce off something, someone and stops about 30 feet from where it was intended. Duclair reacted much quicker than anyone else on the ice, including McGinn. I would have liked 93 about another 4 feet towards mid ice with his toe caps up ice, and 14, where do I begin?

    If you ever watch great defensive players, like Toews, Bergeron, and Sakic back in the day, they are constantly watching the entire play and not just the puck. 14 was guilty of watching the space around the puck and not the zone where he should have been. Sure McGinn may have found the open ice, but even I can find open ice when no one is pressuring me. I know the rules have changed, but the biggest thing 14 could have done was to establish defensive position between himself and McGinn, then make life hell on him. Lean on him, take away his path to the net, stick between the legs, use a free hand to push off on one hip (create unbalance), anything. Make McGinn battle for that space. In doing so, you are taking away an option for Duclair and giving 25 more time to execute a pin.

    The mental ability to battle is hard to scout, and it is probably even harder to teach. Eberle needs to go into a round of “Own The Dot” with Nurse for a practice or two. Will he own the dot against Nurse? Probably not, but that boy needs to find a nasty side to him.

  66. frjohnk says:

    CrazyCoach: And to add to this cluster, on the original play involving Benning, Nurse tries initially, to rim it out via backhand (never an easy move), and for whatever reason, the puck takes a bounce off something, someone and stops about 30 feet from where it was intended.Duclair reacted much quicker than anyone else on the ice, including McGinn.I would have liked 93 about another 4 feet towards mid ice with his toe caps up ice, and 14, where do I begin?

    If you ever watch great defensive players, like Toews, Bergeron, and Sakic back in the day, they are constantly watching the entire play and not just the puck.14 was guilty of watching the space around the puck and not the zone where he should have been.Sure McGinn may have found the open ice, but even I can find open ice when no one is pressuring me.I know the rules have changed, but the biggest thing 14 could have done was to establish defensive position between himself and McGinn, then make life hell on him.Lean on him, take away his path to the net, stick between the legs, use a free hand to push off on one hip (create unbalance), anything.Make McGinn battle for that space.In doing so, you are taking away an option for Duclair and giving 25 more time to execute a pin.

    The mental ability to battle is hard to scout, and it is probably even harder to teach.Eberle needs to go into a round of “Own The Dot” with Nurse for a practice or two.Will he own the dot against Nurse?Probably not, but that boy needs to find a nasty side to him.

    Not a word I disagree with.

  67. OF17 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Regarding that second goal against.If that is really our system then why does it seem that Nurse gets caught more than everyone else combined chasing a forward.If our system is having a 5’10 winger protecting Ricky’s box then we have a much bigger problem on our hands then just one bad play.Dmen should always cover the front of the net.The wingers should be the ones chasing.

    You don’t need to be big to tie up a stick. That’s all Eberle needed to do there to buy Talbot enough time to get set or to eliminate the chance altogether. There’s plenty of Eberle negativity going around, so I don’t feel the need to add to it too much, but Nuge is essentially the same size as Eberle, and I can’t see Nuge making that mistake or not being able to tie up the stick.

    I’m fine with a puck pressure system so long as the forwards are adequately coached and able to fulfill what is asked of them. None of us know what McLellan tells his forwards, but first and foremost it should be to cover the backdoor play when taking the front of the net. It gives up the short side chance, but Talbot is already set for that shot, and given the nature of the play, there are more Oilers on that side in a position to maybe recover and make a play on the puck. Eberle’s error yesterday was that of a rookie defenseman. In my mind, asking a guy in his 7th NHL season to make that play isn’t asking too much, but it’s clear there’s a disconnect.

  68. Jethro Tull says:

    Ok, so collective “wisdom”.

    Best place to park tomorrow.

    I don’t mind taking the LRT.

  69. CrazyCoach says:

    bendelson: Too many seasons tickets sold to too few people? Does this make any sense? Perhaps it has been this way for some time now and simply went unnoticed (by me). Something seems askew…

    I try to go and see a couple games a year (I’m from BC), and I do have a connection with a guy who has been a season ticket holder (and his family) since day one in the old Edmonton Garden.

    He has remarked that due to the new rink, his travel time has greatly increased (he lives just off Wayne Gretzky Drive), and said this year is a feeler year for him and he’s going to reconsider his tickets after this year.

    That’s just one story though

  70. LMHF#1 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Dmen should always cover the front of the net.The wingers should be the ones chasing.

    Yup. Puck and slot/front are primary. D need to be there. Goalie needs to be relied upon to stop all the outside/long stuff, C supports and wingers chase/pick up trailers.

  71. Georges says:

    Shot metrics (CF%, FF%, SF%) count shots/attempts. All shots/attempts are the same. They have the same overall probability of success.

    Scoring chance metrics (SCF%, HDCF%, DFF%, xGF%…) divide shots/attempts into different probability categories. This means they’re going to be making claims about shooting percentages even if they’re counting attempts in just one of the categories.

    Say two teams have the same number of total Corsi events and the same CF% but team A has a higher SCF% than team B. If this difference is meaningful (and not just noise), then team A is going is going to have a higher expected PDO than team B. Why? Because team A has more higher percentage attempts in its total attempts taken and it has fewer higher percentage attempts in its attempts allowed.

    You can see the PDO connection most clearly with xGF%. You can’t get to goals from shots without shooting percentages. xGF% has PDO baked in. (If you travel far enough down the scoring chance road you get to goals. Goals are 100% effective scoring chances.)

    Either scoring chance metrics don’t tell us anything that shot metrics don’t already tell us or they tell us about PDO. So if you believe that there is something reproducible in scoring chance metrics that isn’t highly correlated to shot metrics, then you’re saying PDO is reproducible.

  72. Rocknrolla says:

    bendelson,

    I think its because lots of season seat holders decide to sell some of their seats to offset their cost. The oilers print cover price on the ticket that allows them to sell at cover and still make about 15-20%. So since most of us paid a pretty price to be in the new building, and about 20% more than last year, I think a lot of the smaller guys said, “Hey, lets take the Pittsburgh, Wash, TO, Montreal games, and sell them to offset. These should sell quick, and for a premium.”

    Problem is I think there’s too many people doing it, and not enough demand with the new ticket prices. I mean, take a look and there are not many for under $200….thats up there.

  73. CrazyCoach says:

    Primetime: Yep, happened right in front of me…no need for the hit and put him way out of the play. Definitely late for the change. Not sure it affected the goal though, Maroon was staying back by the point man…think he had time to hustle to McGinn if he felt like it was his responsibility…think he was sure Ebs had him

    There is no way Maroon should even be attempting to cover McGinn on that play. If he does that, he might be riding the pine.

  74. OF17 says:

    CrazyCoach: There is no way Maroon should even be attempting to cover McGinn on that play.If he does that, he might be riding the pine.

    You’re one of the better guys on here at analyzing systems play. If you’re interested, I’d love to hear your breakdown as to what happened on that play. Who should’ve had which man, what went wrong, basically all of it, in as much detail as you care to share.

    EDIT: Ha! Got finished with my first comment and saw yours about Maroon without scrolling up. Ask and I shall receive, I guess!

  75. Georges says:

    Woodguy, it turns out Eric Tulsky looked at the in-season predictive power of shot metrics by using the first N games to predict the results in the remaining games. Here’s the link for future reference:

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2012/1/23/2722089/score-adjusted-fenwick

  76. CrazyCoach says:

    Rocknrolla: Stauffer saying Rogers Place will host the Ivan Hlinka Tourney every other year!

    That’s awesome! I’d pay to go see that!

  77. CrazyCoach says:

    frjohnk: Not a word I disagree with.

    I feel bad, because I’ve written more about 14 than an other player this season, but he just does not have a nasty side to him. If he had an ounce of Lucic’ nasty, wow.

    Then again, I’m sure Lucic wishes he had a tad more of 14’s talent.

  78. russ99 says:

    OF17: You don’t need to be big to tie up a stick. That’s all Eberle needed to do there to buy Talbot enough time to get set or to eliminate the chance altogether. There’s plenty of Eberle negativity going around, so I don’t feel the need to add to it too much, but Nuge is essentially the same size as Eberle, and I can’t see Nuge making that mistake or not being able to tie up the stick.

    Considering this is something players learn fairly early on in hockey, I don’t get why more players don’t do it. Even if they get called for obstruction, its better than allowing a goal.

  79. Rocknrolla says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Ok, so collective “wisdom”.

    Best place to park tomorrow.

    I don’t mind taking the LRT.

    West of 109st meters are still free after 6pm, thats the cheapest with a 5 block walk. If you want to do dinner before somewhere a lot of places do free parking, like ruth chris. LRT is easy too depending on where you are coming from.

  80. CrazyCoach says:

    OF17: You’re one of the better guys on here at analyzing systems play. If you’re interested, I’d love to hear your breakdown as to what happened on that play. Who should’ve had which man, what went wrong, basically all of it, in as much detail as you care to share.

    Why thank you. In all my years of coaching, I think I was a better Asst. Coach than a head coach due to my always watching video tapes of games and developing plans for my head coaches. I just really enjoyed that aspect of it. You can’t fully judge a player on ten seconds of tape, but you sure can learn a lot about what to teach him. I always liked coaches like Roger Neilson, Scotty Bowman, Dave King, and the oft-maligned but very analytical, MIke Keenan. Neilson was amazing.

  81. Jethro Tull says:

    Rocknrolla: West of 109st meters are still to 6pm, thats the cheapest with a 5 block walk.If you want to do dinner before somewhere a lot of places do free parking, like ruth chris.LRT is easy too depending on where you are coming from.

    Thanks. I guess we might be parking at Southgate center. Time’s not a factor, luckily.

  82. Rocknrolla says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Ya, If you are coming southgate just take the train for sure.

  83. who says:

    Fayne getting claimed on waivers is not a problem, it is a dream come true for Chia.
    Question re expansion for all the armchair gm’s here. Assuming Davidson comes back this year and shows he’s healthy and worth protecting. That would leave you a skater’s protected list of Larsson, Klef, Sek, Davy, Lucic, Nuge, Drai, Eberle.
    After this year Eberle is locked in at 6 mil for 2 more years, Maroon is 1.5 mil for 1 more year. I can’t believe I am suggesting this but would you protect Maroon before Eberle. I don’t think that is a good idea but I wonder if Chia is considering it.
    Keep in mind that they will probably have Fayne at 3.6 mil and Poo at 4 mil on the books for a few more years. Would they expose Eberle just to get the cap relief? Or would they expose Eberle and Maroon and protect a younger forward like Pitlick, Slep or JJ?

  84. Lowetide says:

    Fayne getting claimed probably means signing Gryba to satisfy the draft requirements, as speeds mentioned yesterday. It is probably net positive for Chiarelli, although I like the player more than all of your traitor bastards. 🙂

  85. Lowetide says:

    Judgedrude: Your comment keeps getting caught up in moderation because of the number of links. My apologies for not getting it out of jail sooner.

  86. Professor Q says:

    I suppose I’ll have to Fayne ignorance about what’s happened…

  87. Georges says:

    Georges,

    If scoring chance metrics are highly correlated with shot metrics, then they won’t provide any additional explanatory power for models that explain/predict performance. Winning the shot battle is the same as winning the scoring chance battle. This is what Eric Tulsky wrote in his article on scoring chances:

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/26/shot-quality-revisited-a-look-at-the-correlation-between-scoring-chances-and-shot-totals

    Teams have to win the scoring chance battle independent of their ability to win the shot battle for scoring chance metrics to be useful. And if teams can systematically do that, as I explained in my earlier comment, they have a path to gaining a systematic PDO advantage. And if they can reproduce this independent scoring chance edge from year to year, they’re going to have an expected PDO edge from year to year.

    But this doesn’t happen: PDO doesn’t correlate year to year. And scoring chance metrics don’t correlate to PDO within a year at a statistically significant level. So scoring chance metrics don’t provide any new information beyond shot metrics. They’re shot metrics plus a bit of PDO noise.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Everyone is making it sound like Fayne is going to get picked up which I very highly doubt.

  89. Scungilli says:

    Bag of Pucks: These mental lapses in the defensive zone should not be occuring to a player 7 seasons into his NHL career.

    Maybe he digs Vegas!

  90. leadfarmer says:

    OF17,

    Defensemen in general have better defensive awareness then forwards. Thats why you want defenseman in that spot. This does not excuse Eberle from not covering that player. I’m just saying if the system is to allow dmen to chase while wingers cover the front then the entire system is flawed. Defensemen should always, always cover the Ricky Box

  91. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli: Maybe he digs Vegas!

    That probably explains Pou’s crap season. Can you imagine how many offensive zone penalties he will take when he realizes they put slot machines in the penalty box.

  92. PhrankLee says:

    I’m with LT.

    We are leaning on the kids too much. Experience required. Apply within.

    I’d love to see what kind of damage guys up front could do getting passes from say, Shattenkirk.

    Hell even a Yandle. But a first pass deadshot.

  93. classict says:

    Georges,

    In this case I don’t think you’d want to use the fact that PDO doesn’t correlate year to year since it’s also impacted by SV% which is adding more noise. To check if scoring chance metrics are impacting a teams winning you’d just want to narrow that down to shooting %.

    Also I think PDO is mostly useful in finding extreme outliers, team’s/players where it’s almost a guarantee they’ll regress.But I don’t think it’s unreasonable to imagine players/systems can sustainably impact PDO within a small range, maybe 99-101 (See Carey Price). Which is what the Scoring Chance metrics can help suss out.

  94. sliderule says:

    I have searched the Internet trying to find out defensive zone systems played by other NHL teams.

    Didn’t find much but Kings play a low zone defensive collapse trying to limit shots from HDSC area.Statis back them up there.

    Florida prior to firing coach played a strong side overload.This system has specific roles and area coverage for all players and doesn’t rely on switching.Florida was one of stronger defensive teams.

    Pens are the only team other than Oil that I have seen were the defence will abandon the box and swarm to the corners or behind the net.

    I would think that any system you play would have to suit your players and from the number of times I have seen unmarked players in front of net something is smelly in Denmark.

    The coaches obviously feel that Eberle should have slid with McGinn or they wouldn’t have benched him.

    Maroon coasting around at the weak side blue line must be part of defensive system as they rewarded him with time after that.

  95. kinger_OIL says:

    classict:
    Georges,

    In this case I don’t think you’d want to use the fact that PDO doesn’t correlate year to year since it’s also impacted by SV% which is adding more noise. To check if scoring chance metrics are impacting a teams winning you’d just want to narrow that down to shooting %.

    Also I think PDO is mostly useful in finding extreme outliers, team’s/players where it’s almost a guarantee they’ll regress.But I don’t think it’s unreasonable to imagine players/systems can sustainably impact PDO within a small range, maybe 99-101 (See Carey Price). Which is what the Scoring Chance metrics can help suss out.

    – PDO is a strange stat. The problem is that PDO measures variance, and i will eat my hat if 20% of hockey fans understand what variance is, or what variance measures

    – It is not a proxy for “luck”: skaters have no effect on a goalie’s SV% and goalies can’t impact a skater’s SH%

  96. CrazyCoach says:

    leadfarmer: I’m just saying if the system is to allow dmen to chase while wingers cover the front then the entire system is flawed. Defensemen should always, always cover the Ricky Box

    So what do you do when teams exploit this type of thinking and create an overload in the corner and leave the slot open? Now you have two forwards below the hashmarks and one on the half wall trying to be contained by one d-man. Do you still cover the slot with a D-man or give that responsibility to F1, who should be back checking up midlane or let them take that extra second to support D1?

    If I’m the opposing coach and I see that D2 always covers the slot regardless, I’ll adjust the strategy and start the plays out of the corner knowing full well, there is going to be time and space, and even more so if we’re playing a team that has a hard fast rule about the C instead of F1 supporting D1.

  97. CrazyCoach says:

    sliderule: Maroon coasting around at the weak side blue line must be part of defensive system as they rewarded him with time after that.

    Maroon was exactly where he should have been. His responsibility as F3 is to cover the high slot and keep between himself and the point man.

  98. Scungilli says:

    leadfarmer: That probably explains Pou’s crap season.Can you imagine how many offensive zone penalties he will take when he realizes they put slot machines in the penalty box.

    Ha!

  99. sliderule says:

    CrazyCoach: Maroon was exactly where he should have been.His responsibility as F3 is to cover the high slot and keep between himself and the point man.

    That’s what I said or he wouldn’t have been rewarded with ice time.

    The shot was taken from the slot ,whether it was mid or high subject to definition.

    I question whether that system will work with a team with a number of slow forwards ,inexperienced forwards and defencemen.

    The number of unmarked forwards I have seen is a bother

  100. sliderule says:

    CrazyCoach,

    In the standard overload the center supports the D.

    If the center isn’t back the strong side forward supports .

  101. CrazyCoach says:

    sliderule: In the standard overload the center supports the D.
    If the center isn’t back the strong side forward supports .

    True, but rules have changed. Forwards in some systems are not listed as RW C LW, but instead F1 F2 F3, depending on zone entry. It’s supposedly easier to teach, but unless you have consistency right from Initiation all the way to junior, it gets lost.

    I know from coaching kids, is that at the beginning of each season, you would give a glossary and explanation of what everything meant. Never assume.

  102. JDï™ says:

    Ray Ferraro ‏@rayferrarotsn 8h8 hours ago

    Questions for me about Panthers 1) When did Florida decide to fire Gallant? How about book a car for him-have a little compassion and class

    At least he wasn’t fired over Skype.

    Edit:


    Doug Cifu
    ‏@Dougielarge

    @jawsaholic @CruisingRay you really think we didn’t offer to pay for a car? We bought an airline to fly the team…it was his choice guys.

  103. Louis Levasseur says:

    All of these guys who are in the NHL have had elite level coaching since they were in peewee. They are taught systems play from the get go. I know we like to talk about some coaches being bad, but the fact remains that you don’t get to coach, or even assistant coach, at the NHL level, without understanding the subtle details of the game.

    It’s almost like guys just play shinny until they hit the NHL then they have to learn systems. Hockey is not rocket science. Some guys choose to ignore their defensive responsibilities. How can you be standing in the defensive zone at the NHL level and be totally puck focused and not have your head on a swivel? It’s beyond me.

  104. judgedrude says:

    Lowetide:
    Judgedrude: Your comment keeps getting caught up in moderation because of the number of links. My apologies for not getting it out of jail sooner.

    No problem….that’s what I figured. Once I read OK for K Bomb yesterday, I couldn’t shake the parallels and needed to post the whole lot. Maybe a bit too recent of a musical genre for these parts ;-), but they make absolutely stunning videos in a “video killed the radio star” kind of way.

  105. Frank the dog says:

    Woodguy:
    godot10,

    2) Todd McLellan is a #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach. The coach plays favourites, and shuns his undesirables. He overplays McDavid…his uber-favorite. Caggiula is one of his favourites. Ditto Hendricks. Ditto Kassian. His power play sucks. His systems are too rigid. He has no feel for matchups, or lines, or the game from the bench. No wins above replacement. We are stuck with him, fortunately or unfortunately, for two more years at least. As least he isn’t a bad coach I predict that we will be disappointed at the mediocrity of the coach and the team because of it.

    @DTMAboutHeart has a coaches rating system based his xG for each player and then how the coach deploys him.

    Its a black box, but I thought you’d be interested to know that McLellan shows up in the bottom quarter of the coaches, with the team scoring less due to his usage compared to what they “should” score (for and against)

    Again, its a black box and I have no idea how he’s measuring anything, but his stuff is interesting.

    How does Todd rate against Todd Nelson ?

  106. leadfarmer says:

    CrazyCoach: So what do you do when teams exploit this type of thinking and create an overload in the corner and leave the slot open?Now you have two forwards below the hashmarks and one on the half wall trying to be contained by one d-man.Do you still cover the slot with a D-man or give that responsibility to F1, who should be back checking up midlane or let them take that extra second to support D1?

    If I’m the opposing coach and I see that D2 always covers the slot regardless, I’ll adjust the strategy and start the plays out of the corner knowing full well, there is going to be time and space, and even more so if we’re playing a team that has a hard fast rule about the C instead of F1 supporting D1.

    Leave the opposition in the corner until you get your defense set up. They aren’t going to score from there.
    That is something teams will exploit more. Find the teams that make their defensemen leave Rickys box and design a system to make them do just that. A lot of forwards just don’t quite have their head on a swivel to see what needs to be covered. I just wish we were one of those teams, but our plan on offense is give McDavid puck, have McDavid score, wait until McDavid hits the ice again.

  107. Confused says:

    Anyone fancy …..

    Hamonic and Strome for Ebs and Davey

    as the solution 🙂

    NYI needs to do something.

  108. CrazyCoach says:

    Louis Levasseur: All of these guys who are in the NHL have had elite level coaching since they were in peewee. They are taught systems play from the get go.

    You obviously haven’t been around too many rinks lately. The sad reality is that good coaches these days are a minority. The reasons are many, but the fact remains that parental interference and insane expectations are driving too many out. And who does that leave? Guys who played the game a little, but somehow don’t have the literacy skills to read a coaching manual by Hockey Canada.

  109. ohhell says:

    Rocknrolla,

    This is the first year in my recollection that I cannot sell Leafs tickets despite lowering prices.

    Generally I sell high value games to offset season ticket costs. Leafs tickets have never been a problem to sell in the past and have typically commanded top dollar. From my perspective, the market is not willing to pay much more than last year, but many season ticket holders are shelling out considerably more. As a result, margins are way down. Never mind the atrocious fees that Ticketmaster are adding on to the back end of the deal.

    My Rogers Place inaugural season ticket prices went up almost 60% year over year (after a 13% run up for the McDavid inaugural season). Lets also not forget that they cancelled the $100 per seat of Oilers’ bucks this year also. (Hmmm, I might be venting here!)

    For context, last year I was near the top of the second level behind that attack zone net. This year I am in row five of the second deck behind the same attack zone net, so similar sight lines. Incidentally, we are much higher now in row 5 upper deck than last year in row 35 second deck.

  110. Bag of Pucks says:

    The Gallant firing is allegedly evidence of a schism in the Panthers’ organization between old school and analytics with the analytics braintrust winning the day for now. I think this is the first real acid test for what happens when analytics is driving the decisions within an NHL organization and it will be really interesting to track the results from this going forward compared to the results Tallon and Gallant were driving.

    I say this because even though Chayka is an acknowledged analytics hire, he’s very much partnered at the hip to Tippett to create a balance between the two schools of thought. Same in TO, where Dubas is obviously balanced by old school hockey men like Lamoriello, Babock and Hunter.

    It seems as if the procurement side of hockey ops has been more impacted by analytics to date, likely because the available data skews more favourably to quick wins there. But even then, the results are decidedly mixed. See Fayne vs Russell for example. See Yakupov as consensus 1OV for another.

    What we haven’t seen, or if it is occuring, it’s not widely publicized, is analytics driving the systems, tactical and daily game-planning of NHL coaching staffs. I’m not saying data doesn’t impact these day to day decisions, I’m saying they’re not 100% data driven organizations yet and much of the game planning and tactics is still very much driven by experience and qualitative assessment.

    If you hate the ‘nerds in mom’s basement’ stereotype, you’re probably going to want to get behind Florida as a team, cos I guarantee if they fail with this approach, the Spector’s of the world will be citing it as proof that analytics are overrated.

  111. Bag of Pucks says:

    Confused:
    Anyone fancy …..

    Hamonic and Strome for Ebs and Davey

    as the solution

    NYI needs to do something.

    I don’t do that deal cos Strome is a bust. As much as I dislike Ebere’s defensive game, that trade is a loss for the Oil, particularly if Davidson can ever find a way to stay healthy.

  112. bendelson says:

    Rocknrolla:
    bendelson,

    I think its because lots of season seat holders decide to sell some of their seats to offset their cost.The oilers print cover price on the ticket that allows them to sell at cover and still make about 15-20%.So since most of us paid a pretty price to be in the new building, and about 20% more than last year, I think a lot of the smaller guys said, “Hey, lets take the Pittsburgh, Wash, TO, Montrealgames, and sell them to offset.These should sell quick, and for a premium.”

    Problem is I think there’s too many people doing it, and not enough demand with the new ticket prices.I mean, take a look and there are not many for under $200….thats up there.

    I have no doubt this is what is happening… It must be frustrating for people ‘in the cue’ for season tickets to hear the volume of ticket holders with little to no intention of going to the games…

    Speaking of which, I have decided (with much trepidation) to attend the Leafs game tomorrow night. I am bringing a friend who never seems to lose when in attendance (can’t take any chances). The Oilers W/L record when attending games with my wife is very troublesome (damn those Sat. night games!)

  113. CrazyCoach says:

    Bag of Pucks: What we haven’t seen, or if it is occuring, it’s not widely publicized, is analytics driving the systems, tactical and daily game-planning of NHL coaching staffs. I’m not saying data doesn’t impact these day to day decisions, I’m saying they’re not 100% data driven organizations yet and much of the game planning and tactics is still very much driven by experience and qualitative assessment.

    I think any good coach worth his salt, should sit down with an analyst, gain some knowledge, and look at ways to use it as a teaching/coaching tool. I used to use a scoring sheet where we tracked certain aspects like scoring/getting scored on in the last minute ( plus or minus 5 points), faceoffs won, etc. It all added up to the magical score of 100. Anything less than 60 was considered a poor game regardless of whether or not we won or lost, while 100 was pretty much what I wanted in terms of play. I adjusted it year to year depending on the age and skill level, but it gave me a snapshot into what we could measure and work on.

    The side bonus was that it required about 5-6 people per game to track it, which kept some folks busy who needed to be kept busy, and gave some parents looking for hero cookies, a sense of belonging.

    Bottom line, it accomplished many goals.

  114. GMB3 says:

    Louis Levasseur:
    All of these guys who are in the NHL have had elite level coaching since they were in peewee.They are taught systems play from the get go.I know we like to talk about some coaches being bad, but the fact remains that you don’t get to coach, or even assistant coach, at the NHL level, without understanding the subtle detailsof the game.

    It’s almost like guys just play shinny until they hit the NHL then they have to learn systems.Hockey is not rocket science.Some guys choose to ignore their defensive responsibilities.How can you be standing in the defensive zone at the NHL level and be totally puck focused and not have your head on a swivel?It’s beyond me.

    Honestly I find it happens far too often with the player in question.. but those types of mistakes do happen at times. Hockey happens at such a quick speed all it takes it losing your man for a split second, and sometimes it ends up in the back of the net as a result.

    It’s ironic all the vitriol being spewed Jordan Eberle’s way after that because I thought on Fridays game he backchecked well several times, and battled hard all game. I didn’t get to watch all of Sunday’s game because I was hung to the nines and fell asleep (against Arizona, it’s hard not to), so I can’t comment on his effort in that one.

  115. GMB3 says:

    CrazyCoach: You obviously haven’t been around too many rinks lately.The sad reality is that good coaches these days are a minority.The reasons are many, but the fact remains that parental interference and insane expectations are driving too many out.And who does that leave?Guys who played thegame a little, but somehow don’t have the literacy skills to read a coaching manual by Hockey Canada.

    +1. My time as an assistant baseball coach was short-lived because of parental interference… It’s mind blowing.

  116. Bruce McCurdy says:

    CrazyCoach: I think any good coach worth his salt, should sit down with an analyst, gain some knowledge, and look at ways to use it as a teaching/coaching tool.I used to use a scoring sheet where we tracked certain aspects like scoring/getting scored on in the last minute ( plus or minus 5 points), faceoffs won, etc.It all added up to the magical score of 100.Anything less than 60 was considered a poor game regardless of whether or not we won or lost, while 100 was pretty much what I wanted in terms of play.I adjusted it year to year depending on the age and skill level, but it gave me a snapshot into what we could measure and work on.

    The side bonus was that it required about 5-6 people per game to track it, which kept some folks busy who needed to be kept busy, and gave some parents looking for hero cookies, a sense of belonging.

    Bottom line, it accomplished many goals.

    Great stuff, Ben. My favourite part is “folks…who needed to be kept busy”, very perceptive on your part. Coaching has much to do with interpersonal relationships, & “inside the room” is only part of the equation.

  117. Bag of Pucks says:

    CrazyCoach: I think any good coach worth his salt, should sit down with an analyst, gain some knowledge, and look at ways to use it as a teaching/coaching tool.I used to use a scoring sheet where we tracked certain aspects like scoring/getting scored on in the last minute ( plus or minus 5 points), faceoffs won, etc.It all added up to the magical score of 100.Anything less than 60 was considered a poor game regardless of whether or not we won or lost, while 100 was pretty much what I wanted in terms of play.I adjusted it year to year depending on the age and skill level, but it gave me a snapshot into what we could measure and work on.

    The side bonus was that it required about 5-6 people per game to track it, which kept some folks busy who needed to be kept busy, and gave some parents looking for hero cookies, a sense of belonging.

    Bottom line, it accomplished many goals.

    I agree.

    My concern with the FLA situation is:

    A) I believe in a balance between quantitative and qualitative and if they’re seeing Gallant as a poor coach, that tells me they’ve lost the plot qualitatively speaking. They traded out half the team’s D core in the offseason. Even with a D still gelling, Gallant’s team was competing in a highly competitive division.

    B) A criticism/stereotype of analytic savants is poor people skills. Firing a coach with a winning record and kicking him to the curb to hail his own cab? That does nothing to dispel the ‘poor people skills’ image. If anything, if fuels it. Your greatest asset in any organization is your people. You can’t treat them like numbers on a spreadsheet. Classless.

  118. CrazyCoach says:

    GMB3: +1. My time as an assistant baseball coach was short-lived because of parental interference… It’s mind blowing.

    I got good advice early on in my coaching career; keep track of the people patting you on the back the hardest when times are good, because chances are, they will be the ones twisting the knife they put in your back.

    I may sound like the anti-Tony Robbins type here, but experience has shown me to be very careful with parents when it comes to their kids.

  119. Georges says:

    Georges,

    Overall SF% and PDO together account for about 90% of the variance in team points in a season. That’s pretty good. The about 90% is consistent going back to the late 80’s. And, over that period, SF% and PDO are uncorrelated. So you have two independent measures that account for 90% of the variance in team performance.

    Let’s say you want to add another metric to the linear regression model. For the metric to add value, it would have to account for some of the residual 10% variance, i.e., the variance in team points that’s left over after you factor in SF% and PDO. For the 2015 and 2016 seasons, this doesn’t happen. Scoring chance metrics (SCF% and HDCF%) don’t contribute anything above SF% and PDO. (HDCF% actually has a negative relationship to team points in 2016 but that’s likely a sampling blip because this didn’t happen in 2015.)

    So the information in scoring chance metrics is already in shot metrics and PDO. Scoring chance metrics are most correlated to shot metrics. If a scoring chance metric does better in accounting for variance in team performance than shot metrics, it’s because it borrowed a little something from PDO (the other independent factor).

  120. OF17 says:

    Confused:
    Anyone fancy …..

    Hamonic and Strome for Ebs and Davey

    as the solution

    NYI needs to do something.

    All day every day. Don’t think NYI do though.

  121. LMHF#1 says:

    CrazyCoach: So what do you do when teams exploit this type of thinking and create an overload in the corner and leave the slot open?Now you have two forwards below the hashmarks and one on the half wall trying to be contained by one d-man.Do you still cover the slot with a D-man or give that responsibility to F1, who should be back checking up midlane or let them take that extra second to support D1?

    If I’m the opposing coach and I see that D2 always covers the slot regardless, I’ll adjust the strategy and start the plays out of the corner knowing full well, there is going to be time and space, and even more so if we’re playing a team that has a hard fast rule about the C instead of F1 supporting D1.

    I think Leadfarmer hit on this already – but leave them in the corner. I haven’t seen many teams that are relatively evenly matched with the other side who are able to mount effective attacks with 3 players in a corner.

    I’m wondering CC – I get the idea of more dynamic systems and the concept, but have a hard time seeing it as something that will stay around long. It’s hard enough for many players to know, effectively “your position and one other”, but having them in a situation that could theoretically be assessing all 5? That’s a lot of read and react for even the best players.

    I still wish I could watch a team with NHL talent play the Daum/Thurston system I learned at the UofA. I understand why they don’t, but damn that’d be exciting to watch.

  122. Bruce McCurdy says:

    CrazyCoach,

    PS: don’t think I read — but would like to — your take on Nurse’s role in the key play, both his read & his execution.

  123. GMB3 says:

    CrazyCoach: I got good advice early on in my coaching career;keep track of the people patting you on the back the hardest when times are good, because chances are, they will be the ones twisting the knife they put in your back.

    I may sound like the anti-Tony Robbins type here, but experience has shown me to be very careful with parents when it comes to their kids.

    No kidding, one of my best friends made the mistake of taking a job from a parent of a kid he coached in bantam AAA, then had to deal with the expectation of him taking his kid for the midget AAA he coached the next summer when the kid had no business making the team as a first year. As a result, he took the player, and the kid didn’t get to play enough and lost a year of development. Just overall a lose-lose situation.

  124. LMHF#1 says:

    For those that haven’t either seen the Bears play the system I reference or taken the coaching class I did at the UofA (basically playing hockey and learning for 2 semesters, it was freaking awesome), among other things the Bears often played a 4-up attack with one of the defencemen pinching and everyone trying to make the opposition turn the puck over.

    It was mostly them using their talent advantage to whack teams over the head, but it just begged to be played by an NHL team with defencemen who could skate – even if just for an odd period here or there.

  125. CrazyCoach says:

    Bag of Pucks: That does nothing to dispel the ‘poor people skills’ image. If anything, if fuels it. Your greatest asset in any organization is your people. You can’t treat them like numbers on a spreadsheet. Classless.

    Yes, that’s for sure. I’m as guilty as the next guy for treating a player like a number and that their only worth is in the boxcars or the Corsi scores. It is a tricky balance that teams are going to have to walk. When I used to analyze using video, ala Roger Neilson, people thought I was nuts. How can you make a better player by watching video? Today, there are entire industries and software (Darkfish) that are built on skill analysis. They become very successful, when they can break down very technical language and explain it to the layperson.

    The best example I can give you is my father in-law, who is probably the smartest guy I know in terms of mathematical and statistical knowledge. Absolute genius. He defected from East Germany in 1961, and somehow made his way here to Canada, became a supt. of schools, and created a crazy woman I now call my wife. Anyway, we were sitting around watching hockey (which he doesn’t know much about), and he asked me what I looked for when watching. I took pen and paper in hand, and sketched out various notes (Scribbles really. Ask Bruce who has seen my rough game notes) for a period. When the period was done, I showed him trends and things I look for when watching. At the end of that, he said I had a very strong background in an import math concept, and that concept was patterns, and that I had an uncanny ability for it. My only thought was, “well when in the hell couldn’t I have had you for a math teacher in high school? You make math fun”

    Bottom line, I’ll never win a Fields Medal (I’m over 40. Yes, the tragedy of it all), but his ideas and mine clicked. Now, when we watch, we discuss math and stats. It can be done.

  126. CrazyCoach says:

    LMHF#1: I’m wondering CC – I get the idea of more dynamic systems and the concept, but have a hard time seeing it as something that will stay around long. It’s hard enough for many players to know, effectively “your position and one other”, but having them in a situation that could theoretically be assessing all 5? That’s a lot of read and react for even the best players.
    I still wish I could watch a team with NHL talent play the Daum/Thurston system I learned at the UofA. I understand why they don’t, but damn that’d be exciting to watch.

    Yes, teaching the dynamic system of play is tough, but it is getting better and better. I know Dave King was a big believer in the “Read & React” skills in a player. I believe he used Gretzky as an example, saying, “Gretzky isn’t the biggest or strongest player, not the fastest or best skater, arguably the best passer, and not the best shooter. However, he has the best read and react skills of any player today” I took that to heart and tried to build that skill into every practice and started young by doing such things as rimming a puck at various speeds and have players chase it based on where it was going, right up to flow drills which required you reading and reacting throughout the entire drill. Players today are taught this way better than in my days doing 2 on 1’s, 3 on 2’s ad nauseum for 30 minutes.

    I would suspect that Daum/Thurston system has a lot to do with a higher level of cognitive thinking and being able to work on a more abstract level. Not sure of their backgrounds, but I would wager a guess, they might have been teachers or been exposed to some good teachers in their lifetime.

  127. CrazyCoach says:

    Bruce McCurdy: PS: don’t think I read — but would like to — your take on Nurse’s role in the key play, both his read & his execution.

    Nurse got put in an awkward position on that entire play for a couple reasons.

    1) His initial clearing attempt was deflected and fell about 30 feet from where he wanted it to go, and he had to try and clear it on his backhand and,

    2) He tried to pressure Duclair for all the right reasons (saw the side numbers, not great control of puck, had the opposition outnumbered), but Duclair made an awesome play and shook off young Darnell. Once McGinn was open, it made it easy for Duclair to make that pass.

    Darnell was in the right spot and had the right intention, but alas, the road to Arizona is paved with good intentions.

  128. Bag of Pucks says:

    CrazyCoach: Yes, that’s for sure.I’m as guilty as the next guy for treating a player like a number and that their only worth is in the boxcars or the Corsi scores.It is a tricky balance that teams are going to have to walk.When I used to analyze using video, ala Roger Neilson, people thought I was nuts.How can you make a better player by watching video?Today, there are entire industries and software (Darkfish) that are built on skill analysis.They become very successful, when they can break down very technical language and explain it to the layperson.

    The best example I can give you is my father in-law, who is probably the smartest guy I know in terms of mathematical and statistical knowledge.Absolute genius.He defected from East Germany in 1961, and somehow made his way here to Canada, became a supt. of schools, and created a crazy woman I now call my wife.Anyway, we were sitting around watching hockey (which he doesn’t know much about), and he asked me what I looked for when watching.I took pen and paper in hand, and sketched out various notes (Scribbles really.Ask Bruce who has seen my rough game notes) for a period.When the period was done, I showed him trends and things I look for when watching.At the end of that, he said I had a very strong background in an import math concept, and that concept was patterns, and that I had an uncanny ability for it.My only thought was, “well when in the hell couldn’t I have had you for a math teacher in high school?You make math fun”

    Bottom line, I’ll never win a Fields Medal (I’m over 40.Yes, the tragedy of it all), but his ideas and mine clicked.Now, when we watch, we discuss math and stats.It can be done.

    I can very much relate to this post. A significant portion of my job is UX design which involves interpreting data to guide the development of product roadmaps for mobile and web applications. The biggest challenge is always ‘dumbing down the data’ to get the necessary buy-in/traction at the exec level and with the design staff. Developers are a breeze to work with cos they understand and embrace data. Creative Directors and graphic designers on the other hand will argue for a CTA placement until the cows come home despite multivariate results that clearly demonstrate when a design bias is wrong. The key at that point is I have to respect their ‘qualitative’ expertise even though it may conflict with the ‘quantitative’ data cos both make for a stronger whole. Plus they cover my ass and make sure I don’t build ugly websites! ; )

  129. CrazyCoach says:

    GMB3: No kidding, one of my best friends made the mistake of taking a job from a parent of a kid he coached in bantam AAA, then had to deal with the expectation of him taking his kid for the midget AAA he coached the next summer when the kid had no business making the team as a first year. As a result, he took the player, and the kid didn’t get to play enough and lost a year of development. Just overall a lose-lose situation.

    That’s a tough situation to be in. I know that all the years I coached, I always came across to the parents as an aloof bastard not looking to make friends. It’s not that I didn’t enjoy times with parents or wasn’t cordial and respectful, but I never would have a drink with them on the road or chat them up too much in the lobby. I always made it a point to spend as much time with my team as possible. If anything, I would tell my assistants to spend time with parents. It sounds somewhat anti-social, but I knew that if you go too close with parents and even players to a certain extent that if changes had to be made (cuts, benchings, etc), it was not going to be perceived as a personal attack.

    Yes, I’m bored today, but I’d rather be typing this than filing reports today!

  130. OmJo says:

    frjohnk:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 53s53 seconds ago

    The #Oilers have placed Mark Fayne on waivers.

    EDIT: what pink socks said

    *bangs head against the wall*

  131. who says:

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t do that deal cos Strome is a bust. As much as I dislike Ebere’s defensive game, that trade is a loss for the Oil, particularly if Davidson can ever find a way to stay healthy.

    Unless Hamonic has forgotten how to play I do that deal in a heartbeat. Love the player and his contract.

  132. Diablo says:

    Offside,

    I think the problem is that you have to download apps from the Canadian Apple Store – so you get the Canadian version of the Netflicks app. When you put an American IP address into the System Preferences, Netflix sees that and doesn’t like it – you can’t view content on Netflix until you return to a Canadian IP.

    Never did figure out a way around this. If you have a smart TV with the Netflix app then you could just use that. But I didn’t like having to switch set top boxes if you will, so I just gave up on watching Jets games.

    Also should mention that Sportsnet allows digital access to their content now, though the price is pure extortionism.

  133. Georges says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Yeah. The four inputs to goal differential:

    – shots for
    – shots against
    – shooting %
    – save %

    They’re basically uncorrelated. Four independent sliders on a coach and GM’s control panel.

  134. GMB3 says:

    CrazyCoach: That’s a tough situation to be in.I know that all the years I coached, I always came across to the parents as an aloof bastard not looking to make friends.It’s not that I didn’t enjoy times with parents or wasn’t cordial and respectful, but I never would have a drink with them on the road or chat them up too much in the lobby.I always made it a point to spend as much time with my team as possible. If anything, I would tell my assistants to spend time with parents.It sounds somewhat anti-social, but I knew that if you go too close with parents and even players to a certain extent that if changes had to be made (cuts, benchings, etc), it was not going to be perceived as a personal attack.

    Yes, I’m bored today, but I’d rather be typing this than filing reports today!

    Yeah, when I coached, it was with two other of my former college teammates and we basically had complete control of the team. One of the parents took on the role of our GM and planned all our travel and hotels and such and just left us to worry about the team (he is a great guy, never put any pressure on us about his kid. His kid a great kid as well).

    All of us were 22-23, just finished our college playing days, and I found it nearly impossible to separate the relationship with some of the parents. They always filled up the mini-fridge with beer on road trips, had us over for BBQ’s and stuff. I didn’t see how this could lead to potentially difficult situations with them as the season progressed. My two buddies coached that group of kids for a few years, but both of them are done and coach with different organizations now. It led to a lot of drama.

    More so in their situation than mine, as my role was mostly just helping out in practice, but I definitely took a lot away from their experience. I probably won’t coach ball for a while as I’m going to have to commit a lot of time to working to pay off some student loans after graduating this year.

  135. Georges says:

    Georges,

    One last point on scoring chance metrics. An article on Oilers nation a couple of weeks back (linked below) mentioned that the coaches of the Penguins, the Blue Jackets, and the Lightning track and use scoring chances.

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/11/16/why-the-scoring-chance-is-a-flawed-metric-and-how-we-can-improve-on-it

    Fancystats analysts point out that PDO isn’t reproducible year to year. So it’s foolish to chase PDO. I’ve tried to show with my posts today that scoring chance metrics are a way of chasing PDO.

    Coaches have control that analysts don’t. Coaches can generate data. Analysts can only consume it. We have to wait for data generators to create patterns before we can detect them. Analysts can only say the future is more of the past. We have to wait for innovators to show us a different past before we can even conceive much less map out a different future.

  136. sliderule says:

    CrazyCoach: Yes, teaching the dynamic system of play is tough, but it is getting better and better.I know Dave King was a big believer in the “Read & React” skills in a player.I believe he used Gretzky as an example, saying, “Gretzky isn’t the biggest or strongest player, not the fastest or best skater, arguably the best passer, and not the best shooter.However, he has the best read and react skills of any player today”I took that to heart and tried to build that skill into every practice and started young by doing such things as rimming a puck at various speeds and have players chase it based on where it was going, right up to flow drills which required you reading and reacting throughout the entire drill.Players today are taught this way better than in my days doing 2 on 1’s, 3 on 2’s ad nauseum for 30 minutes.

    I would suspect that Daum/Thurston system has a lot to do with a higher level of cognitive thinking and being able to work on a more abstract level.Not sure of their backgrounds, but I would wager a guess, they might have been teachers or been exposed to some good teachers in their lifetime.

    I have to reply as I coached Eric in atom
    Terrific player

  137. MrEd says:

    CrazyCoach,

    It seems to me that when a team is in the offensive zone, regardless of the circumstance, there are always two players on the points.
    So the defensive team is covering with 2 D, a C, and 2 wingers that are flex as they’re reading the play down low.
    Does getting beat 2-2 out of the corner release the 2 D? It must.
    If you’re getting beat 2-3 then absolutely the off-side winger has to be there. Protecting, as a D would, with a wide angle. That player cannot watch the puck.

    Ebs missed his mark.
    Too bad because i think his game is close otherwise.

  138. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    Just read the thread.

    Glad you’re up to speed! hehe

    I like the shot location metrics as descriptors of play in individual games.

    Now you know why we still use corsi.

    Thanks for all thee work and the link to Eric’s Fenwick post.

  139. MrEd says:

    judgedrude,

    Really freaking good. The best even.

  140. MrEd says:

    bendelson,

    Just hope that they’re not too shy to cheer for the Oilers.

  141. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    Also,

    I am be so bold…… since you have the data handy, can you check to see xGF% (corsica’s) repeat-ability from year to year?

    Also, what (if any) is the correlation of xGF/60 and SH%?

  142. Offside says:

    Diablo,

    Yeah that makes sense and lines up with what I’ve been told. What constitutes pure extortionism? It can’t be worse than paying $60/m for cable when I mainly just watch Oiler games, can it?

  143. Diablo says:

    $25 per month for a single sports channel

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca