OILERS NO. 12 PROSPECT (winter 2016) LAURENT BROSSOIT

On the night of November 30, 2013, Laurent Brossoit stopped 30 of 31 shots and backstopped the Oklahoma City Barons to a win. Since that night, he has been the great goalie hope for an organization—and there’s good reason to believe—that has consistently shown an inability to grow their own goalies. In over 100 AHL games as a member of the Edmonton organization, Brossoit has supplied consistent play in a position of extreme weakness. We are likely less than a full year away from his NHL ascension.

PREVIOUSLY NO. 12 ON THE WINTER LIST

  • December 2006: L Dragan Umicevic (0) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2007: D Alex Plante (10) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2008: G Jeff Deslauriers (62) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2009: G Devan Dubnyk (315) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2010: D Jeff Petry (386) (GM: Kevin Lowe)
  • December 2011: G Olivier Roy (0) (GM: Steve Tambellini)
  • December 2012: L Mitchell Moroz (0) (GM: Craig MacTavish)
  • December 2013: C Mark Arcobello (139) (FA, signed during Tambellini era)
  • December 2014: R Jackson Houck (0) (GM: Craig MacTavish)
  • December 2015: C Jujhar Khaira (15) (GM: Steve Tambellini)

There are two actual NHL players who have been ranked No. 12 over the last 10 years, Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk. I always slow play goalies (Brossoit ranked No. 6 on the most recent Cult of Hockey rankings) and Petry was ranked this low in 2010 because the prospect list that Christmas was insane (Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Dubnyk, etc). I think Brossoit and Khaira are the most promising names since Petry was here in 2010.

brossoit ferguson 14-15

Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved

WHAT THEY SAID ON DRAFT DAY

  • The Scouting Report: Brossoit is a guy that has all the athletic qualities to be a quality NHL goalie. He is big, strong, quick, and agile. He has a long reach and is able to extend his body to take up a good portion of the net. Playing for an Edmonton team that was woeful in its own end didn’t help him statistically as he faced numerous high difficulty scoring chances on a nightly basis. His weakness is that he can be susceptible to letting in soft goals when he loses his mental focus.
  • NHL Scout via Guy Flaming:  “Of the goalies this year I think Brossoit has the most potential because of his size and his athleticism. But he’s really raw.”
  • Kirk Luedeke: Edmonton goalie Laurent Brossoit is another big, athletic netminder with upside. Though we’ll admit we’re not sure how he leapfrogged the aforementioned Liston, Matovsky and Honzik. And based on what we’ve been told from NHL scouts out west, they’re not sure about Central’s reasoning either.

PREVIOUS TOP 20 RANKING

  • Winter 2013: 23
  • Summer 2014: 20
  • Winter 2014: 16
  • Summer 2015: 11
  • Winter 2015: No. 6
  • Summer 2016: No. 12
  • Winter 2016: No. 12

BROSSOIT AS AN AHL PLAYER

  • Age 20 (2013-14) 10GP, 3.99 .876
  • Age 21 (2014-15) 53GP, 2.56 .918
  • Age 22 (2015-16) 31GP, 2.66 .920
  • Age 23 (2016-17) 9GP, 2.59 .920

Brossoit has been very consistent since becoming the starter for Edmonton’s AHL team. I think this season is probably a trying one, the Oilers don’t have much going on offensively in the minors. One new factor: Backup goalie Nick Ellis has a .930 save percentage and ranks No. 5 among goalies in the discipline currently (in just five games).

brossoit-laleggia-williams

Photo by Mark Williams, all rights reserved

2016-17

  • Laurent Brossoit: “It was a little bit of mental battle last year, my first stretch of games in the NHL. I was challenged and I learned a lot from it, so I can’t completely regret the fact that I was up and down. I adjusted and addressed a lot of things in the summer because of that.” Source
  • Jay Woodcroft: “Talking with our goaltending coach Dustin Schwartz, he’s very proud of the work LB put in during the summer time. His experience coming up and being with the big team last year did nothing but help him in the long run. He took those lessons into the summer and put a lot of good work in on and off the ice. He’s had a good camp so far.” Source
  • San Jose Barracudas Head Coach Roy Sommer: “He’s really calm and finds pucks and there’s no rebounds. We had a couple of good boom-boom chances, but couldn’t get them to go.Source
  • Gerry Fleming: “It’s a huge year for LB. He’s had some success at this level, but I think this is going to be a big year and he’s up for the challenge. LB has shown steady growth in his game from year to year, and I think this year he’s ready for that challenge to put his team on his back and run with it.” Source
  • Sly Rodrigue: “What I see is more maturity in his game, the way he handles the management of the game.  He’s better there. He has more experience. He was very good year his first year in the ECHL. He brought a team that, I think we (started) 1-10 and reached the conference final that year against Alaska, so he was outstanding. The year after was more a transition year going to OKC. It was his first year in the AHL, so he was was splitting the net with Richard Bachman there. It was good year of learning (with) Richard, a real pro. Last year he played very well over here till he got called up.” Source

THE FUTURE

The Oilers don’t have to make a decision on Brossoit this season. The club also has no obvious replacement (aside from Brossoit) for backup duties once Jonas Gustavsson’s contract expires.

My suspicion is that the Edmonton Oilers like Laurent Brossoit as their backup goalie in 2017-18, and that the club may consider calling him up at some point this season. Since he was acquired in November of 2013, Edmonton has drafted Zack Nagelvoort (No. 111, 2014), Keven Bouchard (No. 183, 2014), Miroslav Svoboda (No. 208, 2015) and Dylan Wells (No. 123, 2016).

Edmonton has not chosen a goalie inside the top 100 overall in any of the seasons since Brossoit was acquired, and other goalie prospects in the system have their starts scheduled around down time for him. Unless I have badly misread the situation, Nick Ellis is the first potential rival for the No. 1 goalie spot since Brossoit became an Oiler. They like him, and I bet you money at least one manager is wondering why he isn’t the backup this season. I wonder a little, too.

THE 2011 DRAFT

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, No. 1 overall. Oilers No. 1 center until McDavid arrival, remains central to team success. Graduated.
  • Oscar Klefbom, No. 19 overall. Top 4D with close to complete skill set. Graduated.
  • David Musil, No. 31 overall. AHL regular. A candidate the Winter Top 20.
  • Samu Perhonen, No. 63 overall. Big goalie back in Finland. No longer in organization.
  • Travis Ewanyk, No. 74 overall. Tough as nails checking C now in Dallas organization.
  • Dillon Simpson, No. 92 overall. Defensive D. A candidate for Winter Top 20.
  • Tobias Rieder, No. 114 overall. Scouting home run, he’s in the NHL. No longer in organization.
  • Martin Gernat, No. 122 overall. Playing in Czech league. No longer in organization.
  • Laurent Brossoit, No. 164 overall. Flames draft pick acquired in Ladislav Smid salary dump.Has progressed very well as an Oilers prospect. No. 12 prospect, Winter Top 20.
  • Frans Tuohimaa, No. 182 overall. Playing in Sm-Liiga and lesser leagues this season. No longer in organization.
  • Iiro Pakarinen, No. 184 overall. Drafted by the Florida Panthers and signed as a free agent by Edmonton in June 2014. Now at 80 NHL games, injured currently. Graduated.

ROLLING TOP 20

rolling-top-20

  • The Oilers have developed exactly one goalie successfully this century (Devan Dubnyk), adding to the two they developed last century.
  • Brossoit has had a pretty strong audition period and is expansion eligible. I don’t think this is necessarily a reason for Edmonton keeping him in the minors but it is worth mentioning.
  • We are 12 names into this year’s Top 20 and finally get a goalie. Here is the news: There are two more to come before No. 20.
  • I was worried that Tyler Pitlick would play his 50th game and not make the list this year, but as it turns out he is stuck on No. 49. That probably changes tomorrow night, meaning just 6.5 years after he was drafted Pitlick becomes bona fide.
  • The Top 20 list is 41 deep this year, depending on what happens between now and December 15th when we wrap things up.

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53 Responses to "OILERS NO. 12 PROSPECT (winter 2016) LAURENT BROSSOIT"

  1. Melman says:

    The way things are going LT, you might not just lose Pitlick, but also Drake, JP, Sleppy and Benning. Cue the drum roll, and let’s all recite together: “The definition of insanity is….”

  2. Lowetide says:

    Melman:
    The way things are going LT, you might not just lose Pitlick, but also Drake, JP, Sleppy and Benning.Cue the drum roll, and let’s all recite together:“The definition of insanity is….”

    Haha. On that note, the following players graduating/fell away from winter 2015:

    No. 1 Connor McDavid
    No. 2 Leon Draisaitl
    No. 3 Darnell Nurse
    No. 7 Anders Nilsson
    No. 8 Brandon Davidson
    No. 10 Iiro Pakarinen
    No. 24 Kale Kessy
    No. 26 Andrew Miller
    No. 29 Josh Winquist
    No. 30 Alexis Loiseau
    No. 33 Brad Hunt
    No. 36 Keven Bouchard
    No. 38 Martin Gernat
    No. 40 Ty Rimmer
    No. 40 Marco Roy

    That is an amazing group. The previous winter list boasted this graduation list

    D Oscar Klefbom (No. 3)
    R Jackson Houck (No. 12)
    L Curtis Hamilton (No. 19)
    R Steve Pinizzotto (No. 27)
    G Frans Tuohimaa (No. 30)
    R John McCarron (No. 33)
    C Travis Ewanyk (No. 34)
    G Tyler Bunz (No. 35)
    L Daniil Zharkov (No. 37)
    C Liam Coughlin (No. 38)
    F Kellen Jones (No. 39)
    C Connor Jones (No. 40) w

  3. Bruce Wayne says:

    Teams should want to lose a goaltender in the expansion draft. The three teams that lose their putative backup goalies are three teams that lose nothing. The one exception to this is Pittsburg, of course.

  4. Scungilli says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Teams should want to lose a goaltender in the expansion draft.The three teams that lose their putative backup goalies are three teams that lose nothing. The one exception to this is Pittsburg, of course.

    Let’s hope

  5. Scungilli says:

    I’d like to see a shake up of the roster, the record warrants it. I fear they already have a master plan and so we see a reflection of it. What about

    Nuge Connor sleps
    Lucic drai Eberle
    Pouliot Lander JP
    Cag Letestu Kassian / Pits

    Klef Larsson
    Sekera Fayne
    Nurse Russell

  6. Alpine says:

    I’m glad it seems the Oilers are still open to analytics with the rumours of them talking to G. It’s good if they’re looking at external dta As a supplement “in-house” data, the latter of which seems of dubious effectiveness to me.

    I’ve always felt Chia should be a smarter GM than what he shows in his transactions due to his educational background. So it’s always bugs me when he makes mistakes as our GM, because he’s one of the few GMs with work experience that isn’t just “played in the NHL”, and you’d think he learn from his mistakes quicker than others.

  7. stush18 says:

    Scungilli:
    I’d like to see a shake up of the roster, the record warrants it. I fear they already have a master plan and so we see a reflection of it. What about

    Nuge Connorsleps
    Lucicdrai Eberle
    Pouliot Lander JP
    Cag Letestu Kassian / Pits

    KlefLarsson
    Sekera Fayne
    Nurse Russell

    You prefer lander at 3c over cags?

  8. meanashell11 says:

    Scungilli:
    I’d like to see a shake up of the roster, the record warrants it. I fear they already have a master plan and so we see a reflection of it. What about

    Nuge Connorsleps
    Lucicdrai Eberle
    Pouliot Lander JP
    Cag Letestu Kassian / Pits

    KlefLarsson
    Sekera Fayne
    Nurse Russell

    I guess my normal reaction would be to say, are you crazy! First off, where is Maroon? I personally do not see how any of this works but you obviously put some thought into this line up, so can you explain?

    I personally like:
    Maroon McD Drai
    Lucic Nuge Ebs
    Pouliot Lander JP
    Pitlick Letestube Slep

  9. OmJo says:

    stush18: You prefer lander at 3c over cags?

    I do, too. Lander is actually a centre. Cagguila is still a winger. A very rookie winger. Shouldn’t even be in the NHL right now.

  10. Centre of attention says:

    Versteeg scores for the Flames.

    Wouldn’t it be nice to have a right-shot top 9 forward in our teams colours, maybe one just like Versteeg? Oh wait. *face palm*

    *edit*
    In my game center live feed online, it still shows Versteeg in an Oiler sweater when I hover my mouse over his goal’s time stamp. I swear the damn program is just trolling me now.

  11. OmJo says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Teams should want to lose a goaltender in the expansion draft.The three teams that lose their putative backup goalies are three teams that lose nothing. The one exception to this is Pittsburg, of course.

    Let’s showcase Gustaffsson in that case.

    Baiting them with LB might be a good idea in theory, but as LT mentioned we haven’t had much success with developing goaltenders this century – or holding on to the one success story we did have. I’m not entirely sold on Ellis yet, and losing LB would set us back in terms of goaltender depth which seems totally overlooked by most of us (myself included).

  12. Centre of attention says:

    Also, weren’t a lot of people here begging the Oilers to sign Enroth?

    Some kind of season he is having in Toronto so far, to be fair the Leafs D is still a work in progress. But Andersen seems fine now, it is night and day between him and Enroth.

    I wonder what he would look like behind Edmontons work-in-progress D-core. Probably a wash between him and Gustavsson to be honest. Neither are really knocking it out of the park this year, though Gustavsson does have a much smaller sample size.

  13. LadiesloveSmid says:

    nothing quite like Calgary steam rolling Toronto to make you feel even worse about your garbage team. Remember those first 10 games though? ahh

  14. stush18 says:

    OmJo: I do, too. Lander is actually a centre. Cagguila is still a winger. A very rookie winger. Shouldn’t even be in the NHL right now.

    Meh. I think it depends if you want 3 or 4 scoring lines.

    I mentioned I’d like to try

    Nuge-mcdavid-slepy
    Lucic-drai-ebs
    Poo-cags-maroon
    Pitlick-letestu-kassian/JP

    I think nuge and mcdavid would be a good fit, they’re our two fastest players

  15. Centre of attention says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    nothing quite like Calgary steam rolling Toronto to make you feel even worse about your garbage team. Remember those first 10 games though? ahh

    That Dallas / Chicago pair of wins was just a tease of what this team could be. More recent than the first 10 too.

    You can see it even last night, IMO the Oilers were controlling the pace for the majority of the game. Then all of a sudden someone starts up the Benny Hill theme for 30 seconds and its a goal against.

    Sometimes the lapses last for even less than 30 seconds, sometimes its that single moment that ruins an entire game for the Oilers. Last night IMO that moment was JvR’s goal when he was all alone with Talbot to put the Leafs up 2-0. You could almost see the entire team deflate a bit. The eye roll and look skyward by Nugent-Hopkins was epic in its sincerity.

    “Not again…”

    *checks calendar* Tick tock, Chiarelli. Tick f#$@ing tock.

  16. JDï™ says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    The Leafs way too tired from running the show last night.

  17. Jaxon says:

    LB won’t be lost to expansion. Gustaffsson won’t be lost to expansion either. There are many better backups in the NHL. Plus, I do think Ellis may end up being the better goalie. His SV% last season in NCAA ranks him among the elite goalie in the NHL who went through the college system. LB is one of multitudes to post a .920 in the AHL and never make it. I could easily name 20 goalies that will be left open and would get picked before Gustaffsson or Broissoit. Unless Talbot gets injured and one of them steps up to have a Hammond-like or Murray-like run for the last half of the season, they won’t be picked. It will be interesting to see which teams expose their veteran to keep their future goalie.

    I bet Calgary might protect Johnson and expose Elliott. Anaheim will likely protect Gibson and expose Bernier. Boston will expose Khudobin. Buffalo will probably expose Anders Nilsson. Does Carolina expose Ward and keep Lack. Tampa Bay will likely protect Vasilevsky, and expose Bishop. Will Pittsburgh protect Murray and expose Fleury. I would. Will Detroit expose Mrazek or Howard? Florida will likely protect 37 year old Luongo as Reimer isn’t having a great season. If Reimer was playing well they might have a tough choice. Do the Islanders keep Greiss or Halak? Probably Greiss. The Rangers will expose Raanta. Ottawa will protect Andersen and expose Hammond. The Leafs will likely expose Enroth. Neither Miller or Markstrom have been great this season in Vancouver, but I’m betting they expose Miller. The Jets will protect Hellebuyck and expose Hutchinson. Other goalies likely to be exposed: Nuevirth, Kuemper, Montoya, Lehtonen, Darling.

    All that to say, nobody is going to pick Broissott or Gustaffsson or Ellis in the expansion draft. The smartest GMs this summer should have picked up or spent a small fortune on a top backup goalie for a 1 or 2 year contract. Vegas will pick up at least one veteran, maybe 2.

    Elliott, Bernier, Ward, Bishop, Miller, Reimer, Fleury, Howard, Khudobin, Halak, Raanta, Enroth, Hammond, Hutchinson, Neuvirth, Kuemper, Montoya, Lehtonen, Darling. Vegas may have their pick of the best 3 from this list. Best goalie, any price, then best value contract, then a younger goalie? They won’t come near Edmonton goalies.

  18. stush18 says:

    Jaxon,

    Small technicality. Fleury won’t be exposed unless he waived his no trade, which I’m not sure why he would.

    Also some of these teams need to resign these goalies, like Anaheim and bernier, so they don’t have to expose Gibson.

    If you’re a free agent, why sign with the team until after the expansion draft? No sense signing in Montreal, and then getting picked to move to Vegas.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Jaxon:

    Elliott, Bernier, Ward, Bishop, Miller, Reimer, Fleury, Howard, Khudobin, Halak, Raanta, Enroth, Hammond, Hutchinson, Neuvirth, Kuemper, Montoya, Lehtonen, Darling. Vegas may have their pick of the best 3 from this list. Best goalie, any price, then best value contract, then a younger goalie? They won’t come near Edmonton goalies.

    Why would the LV team draft a UFA? Hadn’t seen anyone suggest it before, suspect it is a non-starter. Keep in mind the new team will want to staff the NHL and minor league system, and is free to sign (say) Elliott in free agency.

    Expansion teams are building an entire organization. There are all kinds of elements in play.

  20. Scungilli says:

    stush18: You prefer lander at 3c over cags?

    Yes he has experience, Cags was a LW in college. Lander can score in the AHL, He’ll score in a suuport role in the NHL with able linemates.

  21. Scungilli says:

    meanashell11: I guess my normal reaction would be to say, are you crazy! First off, where is Maroon? I personally do not see how any of this works but you obviously put some thought into this line up, so can you explain?

    I personally like:
    Maroon McD Drai
    Lucic Nuge Ebs
    Pouliot Lander JP
    PitlickLetestube Slep

    Sorry I plain forgot Maroon. I’d put Lucic with Drai as folks have felt they have chem, Maroon does well with many others. The main idea for me is Lander plays with talent and his defensive acumen supports an easier minutes line with fast bigger skilled wingers, and he can use his PP PK faceoff talents to help.

    They don’t like him but he can help in a limited way in this unbalanced season

  22. Jaxon says:

    stush18:
    Jaxon,

    Small technicality. Fleury won’t be exposed unless he waived his no trade, which I’m not sure why he would.

    Also some of these teams need to resign these goalies, like Anaheim and Bernier, so they don’t have to expose Gibson.

    If you’re a free agent, why sign with the team until after the expansion draft? No sense signing in Montreal, and then getting picked to move to Vegas.

    Lowetide: Why would the LV team draft a UFA? Hadn’t seen anyone suggest it before, suspect it is a non-starter. Keep in mind the new team will want to staff the NHL and minor league system, and is free to sign (say) Elliott in free agency.

    Expansion teams are building an entire organization. There are all kinds of elements in play.

    Uggh. I stand corrected. I had no idea so many goalies were coming up UFAs next summer. I thought the shear volume of goalies would guarantee that there would be some under contract exposed. That said, I still think there will be enough quality goalies exposed that the Oilers goalies won’t come close to being picked.

  23. stush18 says:

    Jaxon:
    Uggh. I stand corrected. I had no idea so many goalies were coming up UFAs next summer.I thought the shear volume of goalies would guarantee that there would be some under contract exposed. That said, I still think there will be enough quality goalies exposed that the Oilers goalies won’t come close to being picked.

    Agreed. I really don’t think lb is at risk of getting picked.

  24. Yak Efron says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    nothing quite like Calgary steam rolling Toronto to make you feel even worse about your garbage team. Remember those first 10 games though? ahh

    I member.

  25. Gret99zky says:

    Flames shut out the Leafs tonight because of course that’s what happens. *spits*

  26. Ryan says:

    Common themes from blogs and commentators… and well me.

    1. Hendricks is finished. He kills any chance of our 4rth line producing offense or having any speed while contributing nothing. He’s a 35-year-old forth liner. There’s no shame or surprise in that.he can’t even understand or adjust to our non-pee wee 2 dmen in the same corner puck pressure system.

    2. There’s no secondary scoring. Genius move of Mclellan to load up the only line that scores or maybe not so much. I’d say not so much.

    3. Rishaug said this am that the powerplay is a carrot that certain players expect. The Oilers would apparently value power play time for a behavioral modification tool over a tool to score goals. Not lovin it. Score goals, win games and fuck everything else.

    4. Nuge needs help. Why aren’t we loading up the Nuge line with Draisatl?

  27. OmJo says:

    Lowetide: Why would the LV team draft a UFA? Hadn’t seen anyone suggest it before, suspect it is a non-starter. Keep in mind the new team will want to staff the NHL and minor league system, and is free to sign (say) Elliott in free agency.

    Expansion teams are building an entire organization. There are all kinds of elements in play.

    Who are the good young goaltender prospects who might be exposed? I think LB would be high up on that list for needs.

    If you’re LV, do you pass on Pouliot and Maroon, the former who’s struggling mightily this season, for LB? I’m starting to think so. I see it coming down to either Davidson or LB, the more I think about it. Possibly Ellis, but LB is maybe closer to NHL ready. The thing with LB is he has lots of AHL seasoning and he’s been consistently great.

    One of my favourite goaltending prospects (non-Oiler) was Robin Lehner. Ottawa took their sweet time with him, and I was hoping for years we’d steal him. They didn’t seem to want to give him a chance and when they did he kind of struggled. Now he’s a pretty solid starter in Buffalo. I think LB is following the same path. I like him as a backup under Talbot until his contract is up, I think Talbot would take him under his wing much like the king did with him in NY.

    I’m rambling, so I’ll end my post here.

  28. Centre of attention says:

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/future-watch-jones-key-to-guiding-winterhawks/c-284234844

    Interesting mention here that Caleb Jones is currently playing right-side for the Winterhawks. They are apparently only dressing 1 actual right shot D some nights so Caleb has been playing there.

  29. OmJo says:

    Ryan,

    I like Hendricks as much as the next guy, but the time is up. He’s a 14th forward at this point. And to think I wanted us to name him captain for this season only – back in the summer. Phew.

  30. Ryan says:

    Ryan:
    Common themes from blogs and commentators… and well me.

    1. Hendricks is finished. He kills any chance of our 4rth line producing offense or having any speed while contributing nothing. He’s a 35-year-old forth liner. There’s no shame or surprise in that.he can’t even understand or adjust to our non-pee wee 2 dmen in the same corner puck pressure system.

    2. There’s no secondary scoring. Genius move of Mclellan to load up the only line that scores or maybe not so much. I’d say not so much.

    3. Rishaug said this am that the powerplay is a carrot that certain players expect.The Oilers would apparently value power play time for a behavioral modification tool over a tool to score goals. Not lovin it. Score goals, win games and fuck everything else.

    4. Nuge needs help. Why aren’t we loading up the Nuge line with Draisatl?

    To my point.

    The smart play here…

    1. Look up and down the roster and concede we sure as shit ain’t winning the Stanley cup this year.

    2. Look up and down the roster then look at our record and concede that the odds of this team making the playoffs this season us 4:1 against.

    3. Turn on the lightbulb and focus on the expansion draft and creating liquid currency.

    4. Do whatever you can to pad the shit out of Nuge’s stats to move his contract, free up cap space,and obtain a RHS dman who can shoot the pill and run a PP.

    5. Scout options for a 3c and 2 RW for next season.

  31. stevezie says:

    Ryan,

    As tempting and fun as it would be to blame the lack of secondary scoring on the Hall trade (which is obviously a factor), I think it is reasonable to expect RNH and Drai to be scoring more at even strength. Or, in the case of RNH, at all.

    But you’re right- if Conner ain’t scoring, nobody’s scoring.

  32. Bling says:

    Ryan:
    Common themes from blogs and commentators… and well me.

    1. Hendricks is finished. He kills any chance of our 4rth line producing offense or having any speed while contributing nothing. He’s a 35-year-old forth liner. There’s no shame or surprise in that.he can’t even understand or adjust to our non-pee wee 2 dmen in the same corner puck pressure system.

    2. There’s no secondary scoring. Genius move of Mclellan to load up the only line that scores or maybe not so much. I’d say not so much.

    3. Rishaug said this am that the powerplay is a carrot that certain players expect.The Oilers would apparently value power play time for a behavioral modification tool over a tool to score goals. Not lovin it. Score goals, win games and fuck everything else.

    4. Nuge needs help. Why aren’t we loading up the Nuge line with Draisatl?

    1) Agreed. I would prefer Pitlick/Slepy in that role. However, there is an old adage out there that you don’t lose your job due to injury, which I bet McLellan subscribes to. I think Hendricks comes out soon, and stays the 13th/14th forward.

    2) Overall, the team is 6th in the league in Corsi for. Score/zone/venue adjusted, they are 4th. Expected GF they are 5th. I think the team scores enough goals, and that they do it the right way. Coaching staff deserves some credit, McDavid most. Regardless, the goal share and possession numbers are there to win enough games to make the playoffs.

    3) The Oilers PP conversion percentage is 16%, and they rank 17th in the NHL (tied with Detroit, just ahead of Washington). All the way up at 10th place is Carolina, with a PP conversion percentage of 19.6%. If the Oilers PP ranked 10th, they would be expected to score 14.7 goals. Thus far this year, they have scored 12 PPG. Not sure the Oilers have the personnel to be up where Tampa Bay is (3rd overall, ~22%).

    4) It is still early. Nuge is one multi-point night away from being back in the range of his previous offensive output, and two consecutive multi-point nights away from being on pace for a career high. He could have had 3 points against the Leafs, btw.

    One last thing: Playing top Cs is tough. Can we agree that Toews is a good player? Well he put up 58 points in 80 games last year. Two years ago, Bergeron put up 55 points in 81 games (he has 6 points in 20 games this year). These are elite two way centers who play a similar role to the Nuge. It is hard to put up offence in that role.

    What I mean to say is that I don’t think his numbers are as far down in the toilet as some are making them out to be, given the role he plays. Expecting Nuge to score 60-70 points in his role — or whatever it is people expect — is not very reasonable.

  33. Bruce Wayne says:

    stevezie:
    Ryan,

    As tempting and fun as it would be to blame the lack of secondary scoring on the Hall trade (which is obviously a factor), I think it is reasonable to expect RNH and Drai to be scoring more at even strength. Or, in the case of RNH, at all.

    But you’re right- if Conner ain’t scoring, nobody’s scoring.

    Nuge’s even strength scoring rate is pretty much exactly his career average. The difference in points is all power play. Considering he is on the second unit, playing mostly with dregs, this shouldn’t be too surprising.

  34. Bruce Wayne says:

    Bling,

    I agree with most of what you say. However, if you have Connor McDavid on your team, you shouldn’t be 6th in goals, or expected goals, or whatever, you should be first.

    This team has Connor McDavid who is averaging 3.49 pts/60. If they don’t lead the league in goals while he is playing this well something is seriously wrong.

    That even strength point total is incredible. There is a reasonable chance that we are seeing peak-McDavid right now, on an entry level contract. That they aren’t Stanley Cup contenders is a real shame because expecting him to play better than he has so far this season is unreasonable.

  35. Georges says:

    Bling,

    I like your thinking.

    The Oilers have been pretty consistent the past 4 seasons on their shot volume and their shooting percentage on the PP. Their Goals/60 puts them in the bottom half of teams over that period.

    Let’s say we trade Nuge and get an RHS power play QB and he puts us into the top quarter of PP teams. How many goals is that worth a season? About 9. This works out to about 3 or 4 points in the standings, all other things being equal.

    But, wait, they wouldn’t be equal because we traded Nuge for a defenseman. Unless Nuge’s expected goals per season from now on is around 10, because that’s maybe the high end for a defenseman a team will make available in a trade for a forward. But we traded away a Nuge whose stats we pumped up, didn’t we? So we come out behind in goals for, right? I hope Caggiula’s ready.

    And, you’re right, Nuge is a supporting player now, although he’s paid like a starring player. Good for him. He hasn’t stopped competing. And he’s a good game or two or three away from being back in line. Meanwhile, he defends the other team’s top C’s. Scoring is funny. Ask Monahan. Nuge is in his prime. I still remember the move he put on Lidstrom. That’s still the player he is.

    The fanbase sweats goals for and lineups and power play units. But we’ve been an easy touch for goals against for sooo long. It’s still a 3-2 league and if your GAA is above 2.5, you’re allowing more 3’s than 2’s. Let’s get below 2.5. This team has enough offense to win those games. Almost every team does and they don’t have McDavid. No team has enough offense to win giving up 3 goals on the regular.

    So let’s worry about whatever it is that other teams are seeing that’s getting their players wide open in front of our net.

  36. stevezie says:

    Bruce Wayne: Nuge’s even strength scoring rate is pretty much exactly his career average. The difference in points is all power play.

    Really? This is news to me. Very interesting.

    As always, your eyes (and your brain) lie to you.

    Other than Nuge the Oilers’ 2nd unit pp is about as intimidating as a wet paper bag. .

  37. GMB3 says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Bling,

    I agree with most of what you say.However, if you have Connor McDavid on your team, you shouldn’t be 6th in goals, or expected goals, or whatever, you should be first.

    This team has Connor McDavid who is averaging 3.49 pts/60.If they don’t lead the league in goals while he is playing this well something is seriously wrong.

    That even strength point total is incredible.There is a reasonable chance that we are seeing peak-McDavid right now, on an entry level contract.That they aren’t Stanley Cup contenders is a real shame because expecting him to play better than he has so far this season is unreasonable.

    Honestly, I can’t imagine McDavid being a better offensive threat than he is right now. How do you even improve on his skill set? Maybe he becomes a better shooter and scores more goals, but still…. This could reasonably be his peak output. My eyes tell me it should be impossible. He’ll still get better at faceoffs and his defensive game as he ages.. but that supernova speed won’t last forever.

    That being said I’m tired, I’ve had a long day of school work and maybe I’m just a little loopy at the moment, but I can’t see his offensive production increasing by much, unless we find someone he has chemistry with who is also an elite shooter.

    What do you guys think of making a play for Ryan Strome? Clearly in the doghouse in his organization, which seems to be the type of situation savvy GM’s take advantage of in low-risk moves. From what I know of him (which isn’t much TBH) he is a right handed option with more offensive potential than all our RW’s except Eberle.

  38. stevezie says:

    GMB3: What do you guys think of making a play for Ryan Strome? Clearly in the doghouse in his organization, which seems to be the type of situation savvy GM’s take advantage of in low-risk moves

    I know even less about him than you do, but your general principle of “low-risk, high-reward moves are a good idea” is bang on. Seems like a great player to kick tires on.

    That said, I’d be surprised if he’s available for cheap. The Oilers dumped Nail to clear space for Kris Russell. The Isles aren’t about to sign anyone, the only way they’d be suddenly incentiveized to dump a resource they’ve invested so much in is if either 1) You offered something good, which kind of defeats the purpose, or 2) They needed to clear space for a trade, which rarely happen any more.

    If anyone knows a reason why he’s severely undervalued and just needs a change of scenery then maybe it makes sense to offer something good- we certainly could use a scoring right-handed forward, but if it’s just a Yak-type, “hey, you never know, maybe he’s good afterall” curiosity acquisition, I don’t see why NYI ships him now.

  39. OF17 says:

    stevezie,

    It seems rationality and the Islanders aren’t walking hand in hand these days. Let Okposo and Nielsen go for monetary reasons and then sign Ladd long term at $5.5 million. Waive Parenteau for space for kids and then send down Barzal and Beauvillier a few days later. Keep 3 goalies up and then don’t play – 0 appearances this season – the young one that becomes a UFA if he doesn’t hit certain GP marks. Tons of questionable decisions coming out of there recently, and Strome appears to be in the dog house in a serious way. I see NYI in the same way a lot of outside fans probably saw the MacT years here.

    Snow did some good things a while back, but it’s almost as if he’s entered the “six rings” stage of his GM career and left behind the Spacek + Samsonov + Roloson phase.

  40. Washingtron says:

    SPAM ALERT

    I was just perusing the internets as is my wont and I came across this job listing (I know its really seeming like an actual spam now) for a paid Oiler’s blog manager (blogger, social media stuff) for SB Nation.

    I have no affiliation with them in any way, and maybe it isn’t cool to bring it up, but with the multiple great minds and pens at work here I figured someone might be interested. Here’s the link to the posting…

    https://boards.greenhouse.io/voxmedia/jobs/510003?gh_jid=510003#.WD_kEneZNsM

    Any who, if this is inappropriate let me know and I’ll happily take it down.

    Thanks for all the great reading everyone!

    END SPAM

  41. Lowetide says:

    Washingtron:
    SPAM ALERT

    I was just perusing the internets as is my wont and I came across this job listing (I know its really seeming like an actual spam now) for a paid Oiler’s blog manager (blogger, social media stuff) for SB Nation.

    I have no affiliation with them in any way, and maybe it isn’t cool to bring it up, but with the multiple great minds and pens at work here I figured someone might be interested.Here’s the link to the posting…

    https://boards.greenhouse.io/voxmedia/jobs/510003?gh_jid=510003#.WD_kEneZNsM

    Any who, if this is inappropriate let me know and I’ll happily take it down.

    Thanks for all the great reading everyone!

    END SPAM

    Always feel welcome to post links, and I can think of some well qualified folks who visit here, so this is a timely post.

  42. Jaxon says:

    I wonder if they’ll manage to sign any before the draft. This is an interesting clause. Will any players be interested in playing in Vegas? Also, Vegas should be far enough below the salary cap that they can throw a shit-pile of money at some UFAs.

    “Vegas will be granted a 48 hour window prior to the [expansion] draft to sign any pending free agent (RFA or UFA, one per team) that was left unprotected. If a team loses a player to Vegas during this signing window they will not have a player selected from their roster during this draft.” – wikipedia.

    To me, this says that Vegas could throw something like $5-$6M x 3 years at Bernier and he’d get the chance to be a #1 again. They could have Bernier, Chad Johnson, and Thomas Greiss, if they spend a lot on goalies, which might be a very smart move for an expansion club.

    Same goes for Thornton, Hanzal, Bonino, Berglund, Kulikov, Markov and Shattenkirk if they don’t get re-signed before then and are left unprotected.

    I’d throw a lot of money at 6 or more of those players (2 G, 2 D, 2 C) and you’d have a pretty good core to start with for the next few years.

    Add that to players like Plekanec, Jack Johnson, Varlamov, Pouliot, etc that teams might expose to get rid of big contracts and they’ll have a pretty good team.

  43. russ99 says:

    I really think the Ollers handling of Broissoit, and the signing of Gustafsson was all to prevent Broissoit from being taken in the Expansion Draft.

    Despite the wealth of goalies available to the Golden Knights, after they take a starter and a backup, they’re likely be looking for someone that can develop into a starter role in the future.

    Unlike other top available AHL goalies (Grubauer, Subban and Grosenick), Broissoit doesn’t hit his first RFA year until 2018, so that could be a reason he would be selected.

    The other part of this, is that the Oilers would vastly prefer a bigger cap number player be selected over an inexpensive Broissoit or Davidson.

  44. Bruce Wayne says:

    Jaxon:
    I wonder if they’ll manage to sign any before the draft. This is an interesting clause. Will any players be interested in playing in Vegas? Also, Vegas should befar enough below the salary cap that they can throw a shit-pile of money at some UFAs.

    “Vegas will be granted a 48 hour window prior to the [expansion] draft to sign any pending free agent (RFA or UFA, one per team) that was left unprotected. If a team loses a player to Vegas during this signing window they will not have a player selected from their roster during this draft.” – wikipedia.

    Why in the world would they do that? If they sign them after the expansion draft they get two players, all completely within the rules.

  45. Bruce Wayne says:

    russ99:
    I really think the Ollers handling of Broissoit, and the signing of Gustafsson was all to prevent Broissoit from being taken in the Expansion Draft.

    Despite the wealth of goalies available to the Golden Knights, after they take a starter and a backup, they’re likely be looking for someone that can develop into a starter role in the future.

    Other top AHL goalies, like Grubauer, Subban and Grosenick, Broissoit doesn’t hit his first RFA year until 2018, so that could be a reason he would be selected.

    This also makes no sense. If Las Vegas wants to take Brossoit, they can. Nothing has changed. Moreover, them taking Brossoit makes no sense on its merits. I’ve run through the expansion draft a number of times and there is no scenario where it makes sense to take him. There are teams who won’t have good players left unprotected, take a goalie from one of them. Subban is a good example. There is no one else on that roster you want, so you might as well take a goalie. But on the Oilers taking Brossoit costs you Davidson or Maroon.

  46. Frank the dog says:

    Enjoy today’s game day blog today fellas, I’ll be watching from a safe distance for the foreseeable future, or until they start consistently beating teams like Toronto and Phoenix. And winning at least half of the rest of the games.
    Right now I honestly do not think that will happen any time soon or any time before there is a change in the powers that be in the NHL.
    Cheers

  47. Bruce Wayne says:

    If I’m Las Vegas I’m taking Aaron Dell. San Jose isn’t going to have 7 forwards or 4 D worth protecting.

  48. russ99 says:

    Bruce Wayne: This also makes no sense.If Las Vegas wants to take Brossoit, they can.Nothing has changed.Moreover, them taking Brossoit makes no sense on its merits.I’ve run through the expansion draft a number of times and there is no scenario where it makes sense to take him.There are teams who won’t have good players left unprotected, take a goalie from one of them. Subban is a good example.There is no one else on that roster you want, so you might as well take a goalie.But on the Oilers taking Brossoit costs you Davidson or Maroon.

    My point being, if Broissoit backs up Talbot this year and does as well as expected, he’s a much bigger selection target

    That he’s netminding a pretty poor AHL team, and his numbers are not groundbreaking, that reduces the chances he’s taken.

    The Oilers think he can step in and cost-effectively handle 15 starts next year, it makes sense to keep him on the farm and reduce the chances he’s taken, and allow cap room we’ll need to spend on a good backup to be spent elsewhere.

    Maybe we have too high an opinion on Broissoit, but I think he’ll be a quality NHL netminder 3-4 years down the road.

    Someone like Maroon or Pouliot can easily be replaced. Davidson’s injury may end up in our favor if he’s out for much of the season as we suspect.

  49. Big Dan says:

    I am betting the knights take pouliot. They will have some nice veteran depth (poo, plekanec, Wilson, read, killorn, stempniak, Hayes, zack smith.) Guys like poo, zucker, Sheehan, and yakupov have some upside an expansion team needs to gamble on.

    Broissoit is safe. My guess is varlamov, korpisalo, and Kinkaid would be their goalies.

    I think they’ll be loaded with d – lots of quality defenders to choose from (Daley, franson, Klein, de Haan, petrovic, postma, jorkipakka). I think they will pass on Davidson (injury history works against him too).

  50. Ryan says:

    Bling,

    Couple things.

    1. Mclellan’s hidden the back up goalie problem by sweeping it under the rug and overplaying Talbot. He’s currently on pace to start 75 games.

    2. Read Bruce’s excellent write up on Hendricks from the last game against a Toronto. If you’re not willing to sit a game or two for a marginal role player for that performance…

    3. The Oilers are prioritizing force feeding NHL games to Jesse, Drake, and Matt over winning games. I really like all of these player and think they’ve all shown well at times during this season. I also think they all have bright futures. Yet, there’s a lot of roster spots currently occupied by players with little NHL experience.

  51. Ryan says:

    4. What astute NHL GM burns a year of elc/ possibly a year closer to free agency for a rookie on pace to score four goals?

  52. Georges says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Bling,

    I agree with most of what you say.However, if you have Connor McDavid on your team, you shouldn’t be 6th in goals, or expected goals, or whatever, you should be first.

    This team has Connor McDavid who is averaging 3.49 pts/60.If they don’t lead the league in goals while he is playing this well something is seriously wrong.

    That even strength point total is incredible.There is a reasonable chance that we are seeing peak-McDavid right now, on an entry level contract.That they aren’t Stanley Cup contenders is a real shame because expecting him to play better than he has so far this season is unreasonable.

    If by reasonable chance, you mean that Connor McDavid’s peak will be south of Patrick Kane last year, no, I don’t think there’s a reasonable chance of that. That’s all kinds of unreasonable.

    That they aren’t Stanley Cup contenders the year after they posted 70 points is a real shame, though. I also feel that pain.

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