G25 2016-17: OILERS AT JETS

Edmonton Oilers fans are busy these days counting errors and pointing fingers, the frustration too much to contain. The latest outlaw is Burnaby Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he of the 53 even-strength shots and one goal. Ordinarily one could use logic and reason (RNH is No. 2 among Oilers forwards since 2011-12 in 5×4/60) to point out positives, but rage is not a good conversational starting point. So, we wait for days of calm to move the conversation forward.

cyber_monday_ad

SOUR SUITE, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 0-0-0, goal differential nil
  • Oilers after 24, 2015: 8-14-2, goal differential -13
  • Oilers after 24, 2016: 12-10-2, goal differential +7

G25 last season was a 3-0 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs (heh) with Nazem Kadri, JVR and Leo Komarov having great games at the expense of RNH and Jordan Eberle. Deja vu all over again! I think we are at a point where the numbers are beginning to suggest that Edmonton’s statistics are now better than the record—although a GD of +7 and 26 points in 24 games feels top dead perfect.

OILERS DEFENSE, 2016-17

oilers-defense-corsicaandstats-hockey

  • All stats via Corsica.Hockey save for the rel courtesy Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.
  • Oilers had 16 5×5 goals all year in 2015-16, they have 11 already this season. That is progress, and there is depth here. Four different individuals have scored a goal for Edmonton among the blue.
  • Mark Fayne being called up is interesting, and we have to assume they called him for a reason. I don’t know if he draws in tonight, but his experience against those giant Winnipeg wingers might be helpful. I would play him with Andrej Sekera, and know full well you will disagree with me. Don’t care. Right is right.
  • Sekera, Russell, Klefbom and Benning are all posting solid 5×5/60 numbers, that is a good sign. I have been talking a little with smart people lately about ‘vulture’ assists (defenders basically getting their names on a scoresheet but not really contributing to a goal) and that means goals+first assists should always be mentioned.
  • All of Andrej Sekera’s points (3-3-6) are his, no vulture points in the bunch. Klefbom is 3-2-5, Larsson is 2-1-3 and Russell, Benning and Fayne are all 0-1-1. Huh. The More You Know (place star here, and ring bell).
  • I will get into Sekera—Fayne and why they are good if I have to, but would prefer you just nod and admit they were effective. No need to carry this war on past New Year’s.
  • Klefbom—Larsson; Sekera—Fayne; Nurse—Russell. Anyone disagrees it’s bike racks at 3:30.

FORWARDS, 2016-17

oilers-forwards-corsica-5x5

  • All Stats via Corsica.Hockey.
  • Connor McDavid. Looking at his player card is like your first 15 minutes at the Grand Canyon: Absolute awe.
  • McDavid is No. 1 in 5×5/60, pure offense and we can only imagine 97 once his sniper arrives on the scene. I wanted to talk to you about that, one of the fun things you might be missing this season is guessing the arrival time of the ‘and’ portion of the McDavid story. I think most of us believe Jesse Puljujarvi is the man, but that is promised to no one. It sounds like (based on lines in practice yesterday) Leon Draisaitl is next man up on the carousel. Is it possible the next 10 years will be ‘McDavid to LD’ in Edmonton? Maybe it starts tonight.
  • The number of fans down on Nuge these days is either impressive or depressing, depending on your pov. The Nuge is fine, he is going to be a productive NHL center on a tough minutes line for the next decade, and one hopes it is with the Oilers. If he was running the normal amount of shooting skill, Nuge would be at 14 points (instead of 10) and seven goals (instead of three) and on the way to another first 50-point season. Luck has him here, and luck will turn it around.
  • If you still think the Nuge is no damned good, check out the 5×5 individual scoring chance/60 number, folks. He has all kinds of ability and plays a complete game.
  • One thing about Nuge that is true? He is not a 5×5 burner. Since 2011, RNH ranks No. 8 among Oilers forwards in 5×5/60 (McDavid 3.04; Hall 2.46; Eberle 2.22; Perron 1.89; Draisaitl 1.87; Pouliot 1.85; Gagner 1.71; RNH 1.67) who have played over 1,000 minutes. That isn’t a strong number (Puljujarvi is 1.64 so far, as an example), and even if we include his tough competition that is a weakness for a former No. 1 overall. I still think RNH is a gem.
  • You could argue that a guy with Sam Gagner’s offense isn’t worth $6 million, but I would counter that these men are not similar players. I can’t show you the Dellow post with the coverage photos, but for those folks who are suggesting RNH is a liability without the puck I would urge you to reconsider your view. If pursuing fairness is a goal, then in this specific case you are out of order.

This is terrific news. As many of you know, GMoney (Oilers Nerd Alert) has been working on a system that drills down in new and fantastic ways. I have been able to view some of this work and can say it is fascinating. As a for instance, and I will chat with Woodguy about this on the Lowdown at 10:20, we can see just how much the Nuge plays against elite competition:

  • RNH spends 38 percent of his ice time against elite competition (42.6 Dangerous Fenwick/60)
  • McDavid spends 33 percent of his ice time against elite competition (54.5 Dangerous Fenwick/60)
  • Leon Draisaitl spends 26 percent of his ice time against elite competition (42.0 Dangerous Fenwick/60)
  • Mark Letestu spends 17 percent of his ice time against elite competition (22.8 Dangerous Fenwick/60)

What does this tell us? First, Connor McDavid belongs in a higher league. Are you freaking kidding me? He is 54.5 Dangerous Fenwick at 19? Jesus, Mary and Joseph. Second, it does appear that Todd McLellan and his coaching opponents have settled on McDavid/Nuge as twin 1Cs against the best opposition. Here is the TOI against elites by center:

  • Connor McDavid 126 minutes
  • Nugent-Hopkins 116 minutes
  • Leon Draisaitl 80 minutes
  • Mark Letestu 33 minutes

Could Todd McLellan get Nuge out there more often, thus allowing 97 to get more clean air? Great question, my suspicion is always ‘yes’ but we have to allow that the other guy sees McDavid coming. As an aside, Drake Caggiula has played (based on this GMoney report) only 6 minutes against the elites so far and has a zero DFF.

Either way, Godspeed to G and we wish you nothing but the best in your meeting on Saturday and what comes afterward. I don’t really know where your journey will lead you, but am thinking good thoughts and admire your work.

I received a substantial amount of feedback from pretty smart people yesterday in regard to my post about McDavid and Pain and Pray for Rain. That is a good sign—smart people coming to the aid of the Oilers—and I wanted to reiterate my points from yesterday to be more clear.

  • There has been considerable progress. Team Corsi 5×5 is 52.1 (No. 6 worldwide)—that might be the best number since MacT-era Oil.
  • Connor McDavid.
  • Cam Talbot has won this team some points.
  • Oscar Klefbom is developing.

My point yesterday, and today, is that I don’t think this is a playoff team. Can they make the playoffs? Hell yes, but it would involve threading the needle (McDavid scores 120, Cam Talbot shoots .925SP and the jolly Green Giant fixes the power play) and that isn’t really a long term solution.

The real point of my article yesterday was about balance. The Oilers don’t have it, and Peter Chiarelli has (so far) neglected some important areas. I will re-list them just so you know I am not moving the chains here.

chia-trades

THE CHIARELLI LIST

  1. Top-pairing RHD (Adam Larsson)
  2. Second-pairing RHD (Kris Russell, a lefty)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (tried for Kris Versteeg)
  4. Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)
  5. Add a “Pisani” (Tried for Kris Versteeg)
  6. Re-stock the shelves via the draft (Puljujarvi, Benson, others in a good draft)
  7. Improve overall team speed (Puljujarvi, but still a concern)
  8. Offload Lauri Korpikoski (done)
  9. Improve goaltending depth (added Nick Ellis)
  10. Improve AHL quality (Caggiula, Russell, Ellis, Benning)
  11. Cull the LHD herd (added, but also brought in righties like Larsson and Benning)
  12. Rob the World of something

I didn’t have have ‘replace Taylor Hall (Milan Lucic)’ but you can put that on the board (how many of you know Hawk Harrelson?) if you wish. There are holes, folks. Backup goalie, RHD, the Pisani, although I think No. 12 might end up being Matt Benning, he is having a very nice rookie season so far.

Anyway, I like the progress the Edmonton Oilers have made, but don’t think they are a playoff team. That has nothing to do with the players, but a lot to do with the decisions of management and this galling slow-playing of the rebuild. Peter Chiarelli needs to get in there! He had the right idea with Versteeg, why so quick to check down to Jesse Puljujarvi without cover? Why so patient in waiting for Drake Caggiula? I am not a general manager so cannot know the inner workings of the day to day, but this team has a chance to make the playoffs and it seems to me the roster is shy this morning.

Is this team worth an investment of a RW who can score some? A RHD who can rip it from the point? Not all development of these kids has to occur at Rogers Place. It is a confounding set of decisions.

I am not writing about the 2017 draft until January, but can pass along the good information. Craig Button has a new list out, some big forwards and at least one elite defender this time. By January, we should have a better idea about Edmonton’s fortunes and be able to narrowcast their options.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun, busy show today, not all guests confirmed but this is my wish list (TSN1260, beginning at 10 this morning):

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. The GMoney breakthrough, Nuge under fire, what’s up with that power play?
  • Antony Bent, Soccer Insider. Harry Kane signs with Spurs through 2022, will I still be eating solid food by then? Plus Toronto FC rocks the Big Smoke with a memorable evening of scoring.
  • Garret Hohl, Jets Nation. This Winnipeg crew should be pumping goals, kicking butt and taking names. What is the problem?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Can Connor McDavid win the Hart without the Oilers making the playoffs? Crosby shot quality and NHL franchise values.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. A real real gone show today!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

460 Responses to "G25 2016-17: OILERS AT JETS"

« Older Comments
  1. russ99 says:

    Great win boys, keep it up.

  2. StixMalone says:

    Cambot saved their hides again…

  3. Lackadaisical says:

    Jp-McDavid-Drai one day?

    Both trailers come in with the offand side, ready with a better angle and to take the feeds more effectively?

    What was the verdict on off-handed shooters in the offensive zone?

  4. dangilitis says:

    I am not an anti Nugite nor an anti Eberlite, but sometimes I wonder if they are still playing shifts like they have Hall as a line mate. What I mean is that they stay too peripheral hoping someone else is going to create the havoc or disrupt the D around the net. Maybe Benoit or Patrick can help them out

  5. russ99 says:

    Cambot and Connor, plus other guys stepped up too. 🙂

  6. Lucinius says:

    Important win, but very ugly.

    Oilers continue to score in bunches or to struggle to score at all. Tonight it worked in our favour.

    Also; what the hell? We’re dominating central division teams this year but struggling against our own, weaker, division? That is so Oilers.

  7. Professor Q says:

    dangilitis:
    Sad to think we may not see McDavid and Crosby play together in their prime if Olympics don’t carry NHL players. Also sad Draisaitl is not a Canadian (Cherry would love him)

    Cherry liked Hecht…I see no reason why Draisaitl isn’t better than Hecht.

  8. dangilitis says:

    StixMalone:
    Cambot saved their hides again…

    I really don’t think that was the case tonight. Not at all, they were playing to outscore their mistakes and they did

  9. GMB3 says:

    Lackadaisical:
    Jp-McDavid-Drai one day?

    Both trailers come in with the offand side, ready with a better angle and to take the feeds more effectively?

    What was the verdict on off-handed shooters in the offensive zone?

    Russians seem to like doing it and they are pretty stereotypically known to be good shooters. If you watch closely you’ll see that when Connor was centering Ebs and Lucic they would line on their off wing for offensive zone faceoffs.

    IMO it’s easier to change the angle of the shot on net and it gives you more net to shoot at and you can vary where you release the puck from better.

  10. Zelepukin says:

    dangilitis:
    I am not an anti Nugite nor an anti Eberlite, but sometimes I wonder if they are still playing shifts like they have Hall as a line mate. What I mean is that they stay too peripheral hoping someone else is going to create the havoc or disrupt the D around the net. Maybe Benoit or Patrick can help them out

    100%. It’s like muscle memory. You spend 4 years playing with guys where you’ve adjusted to make the most of each other’ skill sets.

  11. russ99 says:

    Not sure what McLellan said in the first intermission, they came out a different team and had more jump in a while, especially after the tying goal,

  12. Ryan says:

    Am I the only one who noticed the close up of Chiarelli texting? He looked really excited.

    Boys, the cavalry is on its way. Who do you think he traded for?

  13. jake70 says:

    Shout out to the Jets for playing a style that matches up nicely with the Oilers.

  14. JDï™ says:

    Ryan: Who do you think he traded for?

    Gagner.

  15. Professor Q says:

    dangilitis:
    I am not an anti Nugite nor an anti Eberlite, but sometimes I wonder if they are still playing shifts like they have Hall as a line mate. What I mean is that they stay too peripheral hoping someone else is going to create the havoc or disrupt the D around the net. Maybe Benoit or Patrick can help them out

    Nolan Patrick?!

  16. StixMalone says:

    Ryan:
    Am I the only one who noticed the close up of Chiarelli texting? He looked really excited.

    Boys, the cavalry is on its way. Who do you think he traded for?

    He was playing candy crush

    dangilitis: I really don’t think that was the case tonight. Not at all, they were playing to outscore their mistakes and they did

    dangilitis: I really don’t think that was the case tonight. Not at all, they were playing to outscore their mistakes and they did

    on that one sequence he did just that

  17. dangilitis says:

    Professor Q: Nolan Patrick?!

    God, I hope not!
    Maroon, maybe, and we don’t finish dead last this year?

  18. OmJo says:

    Ryan:
    Am I the only one who noticed the close up of Chiarelli texting? He looked really excited.

    Boys, the cavalry is on its way. Who do you think he traded for?

    Nuge for Dumba.

  19. Bag of Pucks says:

    I like Hendricks but you got to stick with that lineup and those lines.

    Everyone had a good night with the exception of KBom.

    Send JP to the A. It’s exactly what organizational depth is for.

  20. StixMalone says:

    Anaheim on Saturday at home none the less. Hope something carries over from this game….

  21. StixMalone says:

    OmJo: Nuge for Dumba.

    Nuge for Parayko…

  22. JDï™ says:

    StixMalone: Nuge for Parayko…

    I’m sure that the Blues can’t get rid of him soon enough. Like OEL in years previous.

  23. LadiesloveSmid says:

    RNH-McDavid-Eberle
    Lucic-Drai-Pulju
    Maroon-Caggiula-Slepy
    Pouliot-Letestu-Pitlick

  24. StixMalone says:

    JDï™: I’m sure that the Blues can’t get rid of him soon enough. Like OEL in years previous.

    Yeah maybe Pouliot would be enough right now…

  25. JDï™ says:

    By eye, it seems as though the Lucic haters should be up to the wing in crow about now, after tonight’s game.

  26. Zelepukin says:

    This is where Drai starts to push himself in the top 10.

  27. kinger_OIL says:

    – Remember when I said if the Oil socred 2 PP goals in the next game, they would be as good as the Hawks? Well they have a better PP now then the Hawks: they have a top quartile PP. Funny

  28. GMB3 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Remember when I said if the Oil socred 2 PP goals in the next game, they would be as good as the Hawks?Well they have a better PP now then the Hawks: they have a top quartile PP.Funny

    .
    Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

  29. JDï™ says:

    When Russell is on, he plays like a terrier. Doesn’t look very intimidating until you get a shin-full of him.

  30. Bag of Pucks says:

    Did Hunter pass out?

  31. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    JDï™,

    Excellent analogy hahaha

    kinger_OIL,

    Please the power play is a one trick pony with Drai (ducks and runs for cover)

  32. JDï™ says:

    May the next RE series feature the music of the WOOOOOO Tang Clan.

  33. BONE207 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    RNH-McDavid-Eberle
    Lucic-Drai-Pulju
    Maroon-Caggiula-Slepy
    Pouliot-Letestu-Pitlick

    Geez, after tonight’s game, how do you not have Connor and Testube as a pair???

  34. JDï™ says:

    Paging Mr Verwrong – Mr Verwrong, your shtick is growing old. Mr Verwrong…

  35. kinger_OIL says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    JDï™,

    Excellent analogy hahaha

    kinger_OIL,

    Please the power play is a one trick pony with Drai (ducks and runs for cover)

    – No the narrative is we have to fix the PP, and our coaching sucks because the PP sucks, and our players don’t go to the hard spots in the PP, and we would be so much better if our PP was better, and Chia sucks becasue he didn’t get a hammer at the D for the PP.

    – Or is it now: “yeah ok, we score on the PP but only in bunches, it has to be even 1 out of every 5”

    – Stick with the “program”

  36. JDï™ says:

    We don’t get enough Gmo:

    Oilers Nerd Alert ‏@OilersNerdAlert 1h1 hour ago Calgary, Alberta

    Laine is Yak with crosshairs instead of bees.

  37. GMB3 says:

    So what do you think TMac tells Slepyshev when he shows up to the morning skate to find out he is scratched?

  38. BONE207 says:

    GMB3:
    So what do you think TMac tells Slepyshev when he shows up to the morning skate to find out he is scratched?

    Sibirya namnogo kholodneye

  39. Greg says:

    As much as the draft gifted us McDavid it totally screwed us on Laine.

  40. JDï™ says:

    BONE207: Sibirya namnogo kholodneye

    Colder than Edmonton?

  41. BONE207 says:

    JDï™: Colder than Edmonton?

    Close…Siberia is much colder.

  42. JDï™ says:

    BONE207: Close…Siberia is much colder.

    Have you lived through the El Nino of ’98?

  43. BONE207 says:

    Greg:
    As much as the draft gifted us McDavid it totally screwed us on Laine.

    Actually the lottery balls screwed us. We were right in line for him last spring. Damn Jets…fuck those guys

  44. dustrock says:

    LT blog title tomorrow: Hate to Say I Told You So Oh Yeah

  45. BONE207 says:

    JDï™: Have you lived through the El Nino of ’98?

    Well that’s a personal question if I ever heard one.
    Yes, I lived through that. Also the May long weekend blizzard in 87

  46. dustrock says:

    Ryan:
    Am I the only one who noticed the close up of Chiarelli texting? He looked really excited.

    Boys, the cavalry is on its way. Who do you think he traded for?

    Nah, more like “oh my God my job is safe for another week honey!”

  47. Zelepukin says:

    JDï™:
    By eye, it seems as though the Lucic haters should be up to the wing in crow about now, after tonight’s game.

    Well he does have more points than Ovie now.

  48. KSC10032 says:

    I just checked the score on NHL.com.

    Am I correct in gathering that tonight’s scheduled mass suicide — by means of self-immolation — has officially been postponed?

    Let’s face it, the general ongoing level of rhetoric in the comments section lately has virtually defined the term “over-reaction”. (BTW, Jordon Ederle does not charbroil live puppies).

    It’s just hockey fer crissakes

  49. N64 says:

    KSC10032: (BTW, Jordon Ederle does not charbroil live puppies

    ~ By the time he dusted off the puppy the fire was out ~

    Oilers fans think they’re doing it wrong if they can’t find a goat.

  50. LadiesloveSmid says:

    BONE207: Geez, after tonight’s game, how do you not have Connor and Testube as a pair???

    I want Nugey scoring!!

  51. dangilitis says:

    KSC10032:
    I just checked the score on NHL.com.

    Am I correct in gathering that tonight’s scheduled mass suicide — by means of self-immolation — has officially been postponed?

    Let’s face it, the general ongoing level of rhetoric in the comments section lately has virtually defined the term “over-reaction”.(BTW, Jordon Ederle does not charbroil live puppies).

    It’s just hockey fer crissakes

    With all due respect, checking the score at the end of the game and cheering, while mocking those who experienced the normal range of emotions from watching the game in actual time is not the most endearing comment…

    I will agree with you, however, that the amount of fret expressed nowadays over a 3rd period lead is likely unwarranted. Also, little things like the chide remarks about Little scoring his first goal of the season (in his 3rd or 4th game) against Oilers (“obviously”) is a tad harsh. One could easily have looked at our opponent and said, “of course Edmonton would snap out of their funk on the PP against Winnipeg,” its just not a part of the culture of losing that has been engrained in Manitoba like it has in Edmonton for the past decade.

    The biggest problem this team has is giving up early goals like its going out of style, and that’s partly on Talbot and partly on the team around him. They are now, I think, 9-1-1 when leading after 2, so perhaps we should collectively unclench a little in the 3rd?

  52. Diablo says:

    A good night and a nice start to December. Nice to see some guys who were struggling get on the scoreboard. Letestu had a heck of a game. Pouliot too. Except for a few occasions tonight, when they got an open look, they were getting shots on goal quickly with guys going hard to the net, instead of trying to pass the puck into the net. Talbot played great, but when is he going to get some rest?

    Keep Slepy and Pitlick in the lineup please.

    Laine is tremendous. But Connor is on another level.

  53. spoiler says:

    McDavid with a 6 point lead on second place in the scoring race after 25 games. Simply outstanding. Enjoy this season, folks; you won’t see many like it.

  54. bassguy says:

    Hey, I know nothing of the mental aspects , but don’t you have to take that in with nuge and eberle? I mean, in your work when someone, a brilliant mind, comes in and performs exceptional does it not question your own abilities ?…..does it not question what and how you perform?…does it not equate to second guessing your own traits and tools that got yo u there in the first place ….just wondering,

  55. delooper says:

    Time to start preparing for the next panic attack, Oilers fans!

  56. JDï™ says:

    Hilarious – listen to Big Buff as he goes behind the net:

    https://streamable.com/4ktk

  57. PhrankLee says:

    Ahhh..

    Nice to be on the winning side of “just one of those games..” for a change!

    Looked again this morning at the first goal against. Trouba makes a pass before they enter the zone that no D on our squad could pull off with regularity.

    I’m not a Trouba fan but wow that pass was a sparkly one.

    I was also happy to notice Darnell getting the starting line up slot and then returned to normal usage.

    A deserved nod from the coach.

  58. Dustylegnd says:

    JDï™,

    Best possible news ever, pass the salt and some Franks, I am more than happy to eat that Crow

  59. frjohnk says:

    A much needed win.

    Our tits are calm…for now.

    Too bad there is that Carey Price guy, as everybody will take a back seat to him in regards to the Hart Trophy.

    But if Oilers make the playoffs? Connor McDavid Hart Trophy winner. You heard it here first. ( Those guys who may have said it first dont count, cause I was thinking it before them)

  60. BONE207 says:

    frjohnk:
    A much needed win.

    Our tits are calm…for now.

    Too bad there is that Carey Price guy, as everybody will take a back seat to him in regards to the Hart Trophy.

    But if Oilers make the playoffs? Connor McDavid Hart Trophy winner.You heard it here first.( Those guys who may have said it first dont count, cause I was thinking it before them)

    Ok you win but you will be buying beer

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca