ME AND MY SHADOW

In his first 21 games of the season, Connor McDavid scored 27 points. Since then, he has 15 points in 15 games—and has been the subject of what we might call a Kasper Shadow across the league. Back when 99 was receiving a lot of attention, he spent a period of his career relying on others (like linemate Jari Kurri and a mobile defense) to transport the puck into the opposition zone. Once established in that end, Gretzky could set up, force Kasper to back off, and begin to wheel one on one. (Video here)

What could that mean for Connor McDavid? More after this.

NEW YEAR OVER YEAR, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 6-2-4, goal differential +1
  • Oilers after 36, 2015: 15-18-3, goal differential -18
  • Oilers after 36, 2016: 18-12-6, goal differential +8

Looking for 14 points this month, Edmonton has 16 already, with two games to go against the Kings and Canucks. How close can the Oilers get to 50 points by the end of G41? Two wins this week would put them at 46 points after 38 games.

OVERCOMING GHOSTS LIKE KASPER

That blasted Steve Kasper was a pain in the behind (pronounced BE-hind) when the Bruins were playing the Oilers. Making matters worse, Boston was my childhood team, so I was dealing with the fact that my WHA team was now in the same league as my NHL team and Steve Kasper was pissing me off.

For Connor McDavid, the neutral zone, open ice and freedom to wheel are a thing of the past, until his line can shoot the moon, gain possession, and find a way to beat the shadows. That’s why we are here, reading stories about tired Connor and how he was blanked a few times before the break.

McDavid isn’t getting clean air anymore. Leon Draisaitl is going to have to transport the puck, or the line is going to have to become more effective in place and chase. Always bet on 97 to figure it out, but this team could use a speed demon about now. Who is the second fastest forward on this team? It isn’t Jordan Eberle and it isn’t Milan Lucic. It would also help to have a Lubo on the back line. Mars needed a rover, McDavid may too.

SCORING RACE, DECEMBER 28

McDavid remains the top scorer in the game this morning, but the lead is razor thin. Other teams have caught up (and passed in some cases) in game played, but it is important for him to keep scoring. McDavid leads the NHL in 5×5 points with 26 (via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com) and is tied for No. 11 with 12 5×4 points. He is a wildly productive NHL player, but until such time as teams decide a shadow doesn’t work, the game has changed for 97. Ideally, the first time he touches the puck should be on a headman pass out of the neutral zone, but lanes are blocked even before he gets the puck. Edmonton will need to devise a transportation plan from the players available. I think Leon, Andrej Sekera and maybe the Nuge are solid candidates. How about you? Any ideas?

STANDINGS, DEC 28

This is fun! The Kings play Vancouver tonight, who are having a terrible winter (if they were the Donner Party, they are approaching what is now called Donner Lake), and chances are Los Angeles will be looking for a win to tie the overall standings with Edmonton. Big damned game, but they all are from now on.

THE POWER PLAY

Edmonton has 26 5×4 goals so far this season, and rank No. 5 in the NHL with an 8.30 GF per 60 numbers. Individually, there are some very successful players on this team (5×4 per 60) who rank high among NHL players:

  • No. 5—Leon Draisaitl 8.14
  • No. 9—Milan Lucic 6.99
  • No. 18—Connor McDavid 6.58
  • No. 37—Jordan Eberle 5.61
  • No. 48—Mark Letestu 5.03

I hear quite often that the Oilers power play is a major weakness and that Jay Woodcroft should be fired. With the Oilers holding the NHL’s fifth best power play, and three of its players inside the top 20 overall in 5×4 per 60, I think it fair to ask what would satisfy some fans in this area?

PENALTY KILL

Edmonton has allowed 18 4×5 goals and holds a 6.00 GA per 60 number—ranking No. 16 in the NHL in this category. I think the 4×5 misses Anton Lander, slow boots and all, and hope we see him recalled today.

PROSPECTS

Aapeli Rasanen and Team Finland are not having a good time of it at the WJs, all that youth is costing the team. After winning it all one year ago, the medal round looks like a distant bell after two games. Damn shame really, always cheer for the Finns.

Caleb Jones was noticeable in his first game for Team USA, he can motor and is an excellent passer. He is a rambling gambling man offensively, something we will probably see ironed out in Bakersfield. I have a feeling he won’t spend more than 100 games in the AHL.

Ethan Bear scored 1-1-2 last night, he is now 32gp, 11-19-30 and ranks No. 11 (Jones is No. 10) among WHL defensemen in points this season. Tyler Benson also enjoyed a productive evening, posting two assists. He is now 30gp, 10-29-39 and tied for No. 30 in league scoring. He is enjoying a strong, healthy year in junior, exactly what the doctor ordered.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show today, starts at 10 this morning on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Coming out of the break, Crosby remains on fire. When can we talk about deadline trades?
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. Who has he noticed at the WJs? Any 2017 draft eligibles helping their cause?
  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Now that the Christmas break is over, how long can the Oilers hang with the California Three?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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91 Responses to "ME AND MY SHADOW"

  1. Vince says:

    Hello everyone, don’t mean to hijack the convo but I’m a 36 year old life-long Oilers fan coming to Edmonton w/ my GF to see the Oil live for the first time .
    I’d gladly take any info or tips you may have for what to do inside the arena, what to do before the game, after game and around the city in general I’ll be there the 30th-2nd and attending the game on NYE. Thank You.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Hi Vince,

    I won’t bother posting about watering holes and restaurants, the others can chime in. I will say that it is worth getting to Rogers Place early to have a look around. During intermissions you can catch a lot, but the place is enormous and it is damn near impossible to see everything in just one visit. Fantastic building, seriously.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    The NHL needs to #freeyourstars the current production could be so much entertaining.

    Tug at star on a break-a-way go to the penalty box,
    Hold a star in the corner for 5 seconds more, go to the penalty box,
    Have two separate penalties on the same play, send both offenders to the penalty box.

    Connor’s speed is generating 1 or2 PP a night, but it could 3or 4 PP night.

  4. Woodguy says:

    I hear quite often that the Oilers power play is a major weakness and that Jay Woodcroft should be fired. With the Oilers holding the NHL’s fifth best power play, and three of its players inside the top 20 overall in 5×4 per 60, I think it fair to ask what would satisfy some fans in this area?

    The Oilers 5v4 was pretty weak via shots and “decent” via goals until they added Letestu to PP1.

    They added Letestu (RHS w/ quick release and not afraid of traffic) to PP1 on Nov 24.

    5v4 GF/60
    Pre-Nov 24 – 6.47 (would rank 12th in NHL)
    Post-Nov 24 – 9.07 (would rank 2nd in NHL)

    5v4 SF/60
    Pre-Nov 24 – 44.21 (would rank 28th in NHL)
    Post-Nov 24 – 51.62 (would rank 15th in NHL)

    So they (Woodcroft credits all coaches for the PP) made an adjustment and it seems to work (for PP1, PP 2 is not as good)

    In regards to you hearing ” quite often that the Oilers power play is a major weakness and that Jay Woodcroft should be fired. ” I have 4 theories:

    1) You are remembering pre-Nov 24 chatter
    2) You follow 12,000 people on twitter and exposed to some seriously inane opinions that are no where near the norm
    3) You are creating a strawman to beat to a pulp
    4) The voice in your head from the RE: series won’t shut up

    I’d probably guess a combo of 1 & 2 as you’ve never been the strawman type, but option 4 is a concern…….

  5. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT: man that clip you posted with the documentary from Boston is a real eye-opener: so slow, no checking. Gretz looks like a pee-wee player (and skakes like one!).

    – Nostalgia is a funny thing: that clip was not what I remembered

    – On another note: went and saw Rogue 1 with another buddy- good action and nice story for old-time Star Wars Fans who hated Jar Jar…

  6. New Improved Darkness says:

    I have a lane idea.

    Lock Connor in the Boston Garden’s VHS video archive over the summer, then slot McD beside Larsson at will, perhaps with Maroon–Draisaitl–PJ as his offensive line.

    Not every shift, mind. Just when McD can’t tap the vein any other way.

    ———

    Also, candygram for Lucic on line two.

  7. dustrock says:

    Going back to your Personal Opinion post from yesterday, even Matheson said in today’s EJ that the Oilers need a backup.

  8. slopitch says:

    Haha that Kasper video.

    It will be a bad day for the rest of the league when Edmonton finally gets a team that can play with Gretzky. But that day is a ways off. In the meantime, he’ll continue to pile up points while his team continues to pile up loses.

    Good call! 1988 and 1990 say hello 🙂

  9. Woodguy says:

    slopitch:
    Haha that Kasper video.

    It will be a bad day for the rest of the league when Edmonton finally gets a team that can play with Gretzky. But that day is a ways off. In the meantime, he’ll continue to pile up points while his team continues to pile up loses.

    Good call! 1988 and 1990 say hello

    “They should have traded Messier for Tim Watters” – Peter Chiarelli

  10. DBO says:

    So if we are gunning for playoffs, need a RH PP QB, and don’t want to mortgage the future to do it. Just quick glance around this morning and I see an old favourite of mine. I guess the conditions are always: find a team that would be willing to move someone and either get a pending UFA or get someone with term that is young enough to grow with the group.

    I would like them to take a run at Detroit and get Mike Green. He is a UFA next year. They have the cap to absorb his whole 6 million salary this year, so Detroit would ask for less since it would a pure salary dump for a mid level prospect. Send one of the Leftorium from the minors to Detroit. Also balances us out, gets the RH PP QB we lack and still allows us to move Russell if they want to get a pick, or just adds to our depth. Also wouldn’t cost too much, and wouldn’t affect our protected list for the expansion draft.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Russell
    Davidson-Green

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Benning
    Russell-Green
    Davidson

    And when healthy with Nurse and Benning you can bullets in the chamber to make a move form depth to balance out the forward group.

  11. kinger_OIL says:

    dustrock:
    Going back to your Personal Opinion post from yesterday, even Matheson said in today’s EJ that the Oilers need a backup.

    – Talbot is 24th in SV% (min. 10 games), with the highest TOI of any goalie.

    – They are starting a mediocre goalie too much.

    – The Monster has started 4 games, I beieve all of them the 2nd of back-to-backs.

    – I cannot find goalie stats for average on 2nd game of back-to-backs, but I would bet a lot that the Monster is also merely mediocre relative to all goalies in this domain. He might not be the answer but he is not the problem IMO.

    – Talbot this year is giving this team what they need as well at this stage of where they are: not brutal goaltending. I bet they upgrade at some point plus give Brossoit a chance.

    – I would expose Talbot at Vegas draft. Then no worry about any of the other players

    – Mediocre Goalers are not that hard to find: Nilsson we gave away for bag of pucks: hes fine.

    – Get another better goalie and improve tandemn for next year.

    EDIT – Last year Talbot had over the season the same .917% as he currently does (30th in league). He is not hurting but he no special.

  12. stush18 says:

    Question for LT. Is there a way you can set up a silent poll option on the website at your choosing, with only you seeing the results?

    It would be interesting to see and add to the discussion when talking about things like “should the oilers trade for a better backup?”

    Then on your next post you can tell us the results, and we could discuss whys and whos?

    Just a suggestion. Not that I have any quarrels with how this place is run

  13. frjohnk says:

    My only beef with the PP is that if we are against an aggressive penalty kill we don’t have many one timer options so we don’t get many shots on net. Some PP’s against these aggressive PK’s we don’t get any shots on net.

    We do well against teams that don’t challenge us. Many of our PP goals are clustered against non aggressive teams.

    I think we make the playoffs but we need to get at least 1 RH shot one timer to add another option on the PP.

    Winning a round sometimes comes down to goaltending and special teams. If we run into an aggressive PK and can’t get much for shots on net, that could hurt our chances of advancing.

  14. NativeNotFrench says:

    kinger_OIL: – Talbot is 24th in SV% (min. 10 games), with the highest TOI of any goalie.

    – They are starting a mediocre goalie too much.

    – The Monster has started 4 games, I beieve all of them the 2nd of back-to-backs.

    – I cannot find goalie stats for average on 2nd game of back-to-backs, but I would bet a lot that the Monster is also merely mediocre relative to all goalies in this domain.He might not be the answer but he is not the problem IMO.

    – Talbot this year is giving this team what they need as well at this stage of where they are: not brutal goaltending.I bet they upgrade at some point plus give Brossoit a chance.

    – I would expose Talbot at Vegas draft.Then no worry about any of the other players

    – Mediocre Goalers are not that hard to find: Nilsson we gave away for bag of pucks: hes fine.

    – Get another better goalie and improve tandemn for next year.

    Sorry friend I think you forgot the /s

  15. HT Joe says:

    Woodguy: “They should have traded Messier for Tim Watters” – Peter Chiarelli

    Ha! On that note, for my own personal torture, how do Petry and Larsson stack up this year using Woodmoney metrics? (my apologies if this has been answered previously – life has been busy and I haven’t been here much lately)

    Thanks a lot!!

  16. DBO says:

    Maroon-McDavid-Nuge
    Lucic-Draisatl-Eberle
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian
    Pouliot-Lander-Slepeshev (great 4th line, as per Columbus who run Gagner and Hartnell on 4th line EV minutes)
    (send down Puljujarvi and Caggulia to get minutes and confidence back)
    Khaira

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Russell
    Davidson-Green
    (Benning and Nurse IR especially if Benning has a concussion)
    Gryba

    That looks like a more balanced team, and built for to play the LA, San Jose and Anaheim more bigger teams especially when we are healthy (we have to accept they are signing Russell as per Matty). i would love a better RW to allow us to have 3 scoring lines, but the tougher, more bigger team Chia and McClellan wants is reflected in the team above and it also maximizes Nuge to play with McDavid and give him someone who can play near his speed and think at his level.

  17. LadiesloveSmid says:

    HT Joe: Ha!On that note, for my own personal torture, how do Petry and Larsson stack up this year using Woodmoney metrics?(my apologies if this has been answered previously – life has been busy and I haven’t been here much lately)


    Thanks a lot!!

    Petry is having a damn fantastic season. Among the top in CF%RelTM and scoring over half a point per game.

  18. kinger_OIL says:

    NativeNotFrench: Sorry friend I think you forgot the /s

    – Are you correcting my grammar or replying to my Talbot analysis?

    – Please tell me you aren’t pointing out a typo: please tell me you were adding something to Talbot

    – If not, pretty cheesy to tell me you are a friend then belittle my post by pointing out a typo.

  19. 68goatcheese says:

    Vince,

    Can’t miss The Sherlock Holmes Pub on Rice Howard Way. 3 blocks from Rogers Place.

    Also, great pre event atmosphere at Rose and Crown in the Sutton Place Hotel across the street and half a block from Rogers.

    Enjoy the game and visit!! Go Oilers Go.

    Cheers

  20. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL: – Are you correcting my grammar or replying to my Talbot analysis?

    – Please tell me you aren’t pointing out a typo: please tell me you were adding something to Talbot

    – If not, pretty cheesy to tell me you are a friend then belittle my post by pointing out a typo.

    “/s” means “sarcasm”

    He’s saying you forgot to mention your post is sarcasm.

  21. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy: “/s” means “sarcasm”

    He’s saying you forgot to mention your post is sarcasm.

    – It’s actually not sarcastic. So I get it though: that is a good reply: I’m not hip with the kids: thanks@

    – I think the numbers back the assertion that Talbot a mediocre starting Goalie, and he has a body of work sufficient to arrive at this conclusion.

    – I’d expose Talbot, figure his upside is far less to team than say Davidson (who appears to be the consensus bubble-boy).

    – We are now an elite scoring team, have an elite power-play. Our D by committee has lots of nice things with bona-fide development upside.

    – A G with a .925 sv% would look really smart on this team (and a back-up above .905)

  22. classict says:

    kinger_OIL,

    It could possibly be that the number of games he’s had to play are starting to tire him out? His SV% to start this season was very good. And I’m pretty sure he was above average over the second half of last year..

  23. delooper says:

    The African Safari restaurant is just across the street to the NW from the arena. Has very nice Somali-Kenyan food. Friendly people.

  24. Professor Q says:

    classict,

    Plus, statistically one would think more games would obviously serve to reduce numbers? Aside from wins, hopefully.

  25. flyfish1168 says:

    PunkInDrublic:
    Nice article about Kassian. Love this kid’s attitude now.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/terry-jones-from-substance-abuse-to-sobriety-zack-kassians-life-career-on-positive-track-with-oilers

    Cheers

    I agree. Very nice peace (intended). I am also cheering he can sustain this new found life here in Edmonton.

  26. Vince says:

    68goatcheese:
    Vince,

    Can’t miss The Sherlock Holmes Pub on Rice Howard Way. 3 blocks from Rogers Place.

    Also, great pre event atmosphere at Rose and Crown in the Sutton Place Hotel across the street and half a block from Rogers.

    Enjoy the game and visit!! Go Oilers Go.

    Cheers

    great info, thanks very much!

  27. Vince says:

    Lowetide:
    Hi Vince,

    I won’t bother posting about watering holes and restaurants, the others can chime in. I will say that it is worth getting to Rogers Place early to have a look around. During intermissions you can catch a lot, but the place is enormous and it is damn near impossible to see everything in just one visit. Fantastic building, seriously.

    will do, thanks LT!

  28. kinger_OIL says:

    classict,

    – sure that’s a defendible interpretation. It is remarkable that Talbot has most TOI of any goalie this year. So they are riding him hard: maybe that effects him and explains his mediocre sv%

    – His sv% last year was below replacement level though: 30th in league, but our D sucked hard

    – I’d still expose him, get a better “tandemn” once I figured out if Brossoit is part of solution: he wasn’t ready last year recall.

  29. Professor Q says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Who would you suggest? I’m not sure anyone would necessarily be easily available? Talbot is a very good goalie for not that much on the cap.

  30. jimmers2 says:

    Woodguy,

    Dammit. You’d have at least hoped for Brian Engblom or Randy Carlyle.

  31. The Hermit says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Talbot has a NMC, he can’t be exposed unless he waives it.

  32. HT Joe says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Petry is having a damn fantastic season. Among the top in CF%RelTM and scoring over half a point per game.

    Thanks a lot… I was wondering about Petry vs. Larsson in part because of Petry’s strong boxcars
    – Petry: 33GP 8G 9A 17P +/-(+11)
    – Larsson: 36GP 2G 4A 6P +/-(-3)

    I didn’t know about the CF%RelTM, so thanks for confirming that.

    I was also curious about the useage…. is Petry succeeding so much because Weber is drawing tougher competition, leaving Petry with relatively easy sledding? Or is Petry still facing tough opposition?

    Thanks again for the response!!

  33. pocession charge says:

    kinger_OIL: –

    – I think the numbers back the assertion that Talbot a mediocre starting Goalie, and he has a body of work sufficient to arrive at this conclusion.

    I think you forgot the is.

  34. Woodguy says:

    jimmers2:
    Woodguy,

    Dammit. You’d have at least hoped for Brian Engblom or Randy Carlyle.

    Those guys had some offence.

  35. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    – His sv% last year was below replacement level though: 30th in league, but our D sucked hard

    30th in the NHL, is by definition, above replacement level.

    Replacement level is what a typical AHL call up would provide.

  36. JDï™ says:

    Schneider not happy with the way things are going lately:

    http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2016/12/28/with-devils-in-free-fall-schneider-vents-frustrations/

    Also:

    Andrew Gross
    ‏@AGrossRecord

    Taylor Hall (lower body) out tomorrow at DC. Not related to knee surgery. Vern Fiddler (lower body) out 3-4 weeks. Hall day to day.

  37. kinger_OIL says:

    The Hermit:
    kinger_OIL,

    Talbot has a NMC, he can’t be exposed unless he waives it.

    – Well that no move is a problem!

    – I don’t think there is anything wrong with Talbott: he’s overall neither a hindrance nor a game-changer G: that’s terrific for us at this stage: I hope he finds another level (but I doubt it) and/or we get a G who will compete for his job: that’s not the Monster: maybe its Brossoit

    – Onto another topic: I’d sign Russell for 3×3 no problem….

  38. Woodguy says:

    HT Joe: Ha!On that note, for my own personal torture, how do Petry and Larsson stack up this year using Woodmoney metrics?(my apologies if this has been answered previously – life has been busy and I haven’t been here much lately)

    Thanks a lot!!

    Petry – TOI% vs Elites 31% (close to standard 2nd pair, Weber is getting 40% vs Elite)
    Raw CF% 52.8
    Raw DFF% 52.4
    RelCF%Comp +3.7%
    RelDFF%Comp +5.4

    Playing 2nd pair and doing very well.. Playing mostly with Markov, who is 38, but still a good vet.

    Larsson – TOI vs Elites 34% (McLellan deploys the top 4 very close, Russell has 36%)
    Raw CF% 44.6
    Raw DFF% 43.5
    RelCF%Comp -3.3%
    RelDFF%Comp -2.7%

    Klefbom has been up and down, but Larsson hasn’t really stood out for anything in particular.

    I said the day after the Hall trade on LT’s show that the genesis of this trade was MacT giving Petry a one year deal when he was open for an extension at a reported $4.5MM.

  39. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy:
    kinger_OIL,

    – His sv% last year was below replacement level though: 30th in league, but our D sucked hard

    30th in the NHL, is by definition, above replacement level.

    Replacement level is what a typical AHL call up would provide.

    – I bet a lot of AHL’er goalers would post 30th save percentage. Hardly a ringing defense!

    – Last year, there were a dozen goalies who played less than 20 games (excluding Price), who had better sv% than Talbott, most of them AHL call-ups….

    – If you are the 30th best in sv% as a starting goalie for a whole season, then you have the same save percentage the next year while your team has got a lot better, you are very replaceable IMO:

  40. Woodguy says:

    @omgitsdomi (Dom) is a writer for Hockey Graphs.

    He has come up with a way of measuring “single game productivity” : https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/07/13/measuring-single-game-productivity-an-introduction-to-game-score/

    I don’t agree with all of it (I think it doesn’t account for QoC well, but none of the majority of stuff does) but it is interesting and pretty good for the most part.

    Here’s a list of his “Game Score” leaders among Dmen: https://twitter.com/omgitsdomi/status/813480647213940738

    Petry ranks 3rd in the NHL. (behind Burns and Letang)

    Schultz ranks 11th (I mentioned they didn’t qualify minutes using QoC properly…..)

    Larsson ranks 155th among Dmen

    Hall (in a poor-ish year) ranks 31st among fowards.

    Good times.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Dom has also published “Depth Charts” using his Game Score metric for each team:

    https://gamescorecharts.wordpress.com/2016/12/27/depth-charts/

    It passes my smell test.

    I like it.

  42. JDï™ says:

    Klinkhammer and Hall with the goals so far in today’s Spengler Cup game. Adam Hall, that is.

    Dinamo Minsk v Davos

  43. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    – I bet a lot of AHL’er goalers would post 30th save percentage. Hardly a ringing defense!

    As someone who has grinded through pages and pages and pages of goalie data, the answer is “not even close actually”

    – Last year, there were a dozen goalies who played less than 20 games (excluding Price), who had better sv% than Talbott, most of them AHL call-ups….

    Beware of small samples given to call up goalies.

    History is littered with them (serioiusly, littered) who aren’t even close when they start getting regular starts against good teams.

    – If you are the 30th best in sv% as a starting goalie for a whole season, then you have the same save percentage the next year while your team has got a lot better, you are very replaceable IMO:

    Yeah, this makes no sense what so ever.

  44. fifthcartel says:

    Would Schultz killing bottom pair duty suggest that he might be capable of second pairing minutes?

  45. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy,

    What do you make of Schneider’s .904 and Budaj’s .919 so far this year?

    Some cutting edge voodoo? Team effects?

  46. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    If you want to get a quick metric on how well a team is playing defensively, then look at Expected Goals Against/60

    That takes every shot location and type into account and then runs it against the NHL average save % over the last 10 years vs a shot of that quality.

    15/16 Oilers 2.55
    16/17 Oilers 2.56

    Yeah, not a lot of improvement there.

    This weight shot metric also leads to a metric called Goals Saved Above Average.

    Takes every weighted shot and its historical SV% in the NHL and compares it to the particular goalie.

    If the goalie saves more than the historical average then the have a positive GSAA, if they are worse, they have a negative GSAA.

    NHL GSAA leaders last 3 years combined: (min 1500 min (which is 30 games over 2.5 years, lots of room for backups to make it in, there are 61 goalies in the sample)

    Player GSAA
    COREY.CRAWFORD 57.77
    CAREY.PRICE 52.04
    HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 50.14
    BRADEN.HOLTBY 43.34
    STEVE.MASON 40.5
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 36.85
    CORY.SCHNEIDER 35.75
    JAROSLAV.HALAK 32.68
    MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 30.42

    Ok, so this passes the smell test easily.

    Let’s now figure out GSAA/60 to even the playing field. Again min 1500

    Player GSAA/60
    CAREY.PRICE 0.654
    ANTTI.RAANTA 0.596
    COREY.CRAWFORD 0.551
    ANDREW.HAMMOND 0.547
    HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.479
    SCOTT.DARLING 0.467
    THOMAS.GREISS 0.463
    STEVE.MASON 0.413
    JAROSLAV.HALAK 0.363

    I’ve always liked Greiss. Hammond has his unreal run in there and this year haven’t been nearly as good. I wouldn’t bet on him. Darling and Raanta are high end backups who might be able to start.

    Talbot ranks 21st by this metric (GSAA/60) over the last 3 years.

    Last year he ranked 43rd – not a good year at all

    This year he ranks 12th.

    I think he’s a legit NHL starter and that’s quite a bit away from “replacement level”

    You pull a lot of things out of your ass and declare them as truths, usually supported from your friends who are “hockey men”, but this one doesn’t pass the smell test.

  47. Woodguy says:

    JDï™:
    Woodguy,

    What do you make of Schneider’s .904 and Budaj’s .919 so far this year?

    Some cutting edge voodoo? Team effects?

    Variance is hard to spot sometimes. Long term results are best to fall back on.

    GSAA/60 Schneider ranks 42nd and Budja ranks 18th.

    Last 3 years Schneider ranks 16th and Budja ranks 25th (most of that is this year)

    Budja’s sample is only 1300min so I wouldn’t trust it too much right now.

    Schnieder’s sample is almost 7000 minutes, which trumps this year.

    Players aren’t machines and their performance goes up and down and we can kill ourselves trying to find reasons when often its just variance.

  48. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Would Schultz killing bottom pair duty suggest that he might be capable of second pairing minutes?

    I think PIT’s system is ideal for him because they don’t rely on the Dmen winning board battles, but being first back to the puck and moving it quickly.

    He may struggle in other systems.

    There are reports I’ve read that he “gets it” now and is better at getting the puck back, but I don’t know as I’ve only seen him play 3-4 times this year.

  49. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL:
    .Yeah, this makes no sense what so ever..


    – Makes perfect sense to me: if a G wassaving .917% and your team had a brutal D, when your D is less brutal, and presumably giving up less grade A chances, you would expect the G to have a higher sv%.That’s been my experience.

    – I always use the Bunny Laroque analogy: his sv% was awesome when he was with the Habs, then sucked for the Leafs.

    – Talbot is presumably a better goaler now by virtue of his experience than when he was Rangers back-up.His sv% reduction team to team has more to do with the quality of the team than him

    – This team’s D improvement y-o-y has not helped Talbott’s sv%, and that is on the G: he’s a mediocore Goalie, but causes no harm: I think we can agree on that?

    I tried to account for all of that by using xGA/60, which account for “awesomeness of Dcorps”

    Also,

    NYR Dcorps isn’t awesome.

    They’ve had really, really good goalies: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2015/07/were-rangers-d-corps-been-as-good-as.html

    They’ve been great on the PK, but very middle of the road or worse otherwise.

  50. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    WG says: Yeah, this makes no sense what so ever..
    – Makes perfect sense to me: if a G was saving .917% and your team had a brutal D, when your D is less brutal, and presumably giving up less grade A chances, you would expect the G to have a higher sv%. That’s been my experience.

    – I always use the Bunny Laroque analogy: his sv% was awesome when he was with the Habs, then sucked for the Leafs.

    – Talbot is presumably a better goaler now by virtue of his experience than when he was Rangers back-up. His sv% reduction team to team has more to do with the quality of the team than him

    – This team’s D improvement y-o-y has not helped Talbott’s sv%, and that is on the G: he’s a mediocore Goalie, but causes no harm: I think we can agree on that?

    P.S.: I don’t pull things out of ass, I use a different set of references and line of reasoning often.

    – I do agree that if you are thinking that replacement level = the expected performance of an average AHL G, then there are going to be problems having a discssion.

    – Bottom-line: Talbott has to be better or he won’t be the starting goalie at the end of next year, I’m sure most would agree

  51. HT Joe says:

    Woodguy: Petry – TOI% vs Elites 31% (close to standard 2nd pair, Weber is getting 40% vs Elite)
    Raw CF% 52.8
    Raw DFF% 52.4
    RelCF%Comp +3.7%
    RelDFF%Comp +5.4

    Playing 2nd pair and doing very well.. Playing mostly with Markov, who is 38, but still a good vet.

    Larsson – TOI vs Elites 34% (McLellan deploys the top 4 very close, Russell has 36%)
    Raw CF% 44.6
    Raw DFF% 43.5
    RelCF%Comp -3.3%
    RelDFF%Comp -2.7%

    Klefbom has been up and down, but Larsson hasn’t really stood out for anything in particular.

    I said the day after the Hall trade on LT’s show that the genesis of this trade was MacT giving Petry a one year deal when he was open for an extension at a reported $4.5MM.

    Thanks a lot for this detailed answer (and for the follow-up answer referencing single game productivity… neat stuff).

    Cheers!

  52. spoiler says:

    WG,

    You wouldn’t happen to have a heat map of shot location on Oiler PP goals just lying around by any chance?

  53. jimmers2 says:

    Woodguy: Those guys had some offence.

    Yup, they did. Engblom had some defence as well and Carlyle carried the puck an awful lot.

  54. Thorin says:

    I was going to post that comparing goalies on straight save percentage is not as useful as one might think, due to shot location and danger. Then Woodguy chimes in with a crap-ton of actual data…

  55. classict says:

    spoiler,

    Corsica has them under teams. Just go to Rink View on the top menu bar and set strength state to PP

    And also set Event type to Goal instead of the default shots on goal

  56. Confused says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Could not disagree with you more, WG analysis is sound.

    Ignoring Connor, most people would have him as their MVP!

    It is not his fault, he plays too much and gets no practice.

  57. spoiler says:

    classict,

    Thank you, will give it a whirl.

  58. Georges says:

    JDï™:
    Schneider not happy with the way things are going lately:

    http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2016/12/28/with-devils-in-free-fall-schneider-vents-frustrations/

    Also:

    Andrew Gross
    ‏@AGrossRecord


    Taylor Hall (lower body) out tomorrow at DC. Not related to knee surgery. Vern Fiddler (lower body) out 3-4 weeks. Hall day to day.

    Interesting quotes from that article:

    ———————————————

    “I don’t know what happened,” Schneider said, per NorthJersey.com. “Again, a late goal in the second, 3-2, you would have thought the game was over. You would have thought it was 5-1 at that point. We just need to be stronger in the last minutes of periods, myself included, come up with the save, get to the third tied.

    “But the last couple of games that’s been an issue. I just don’t know. They get the next one and there’s the game.”

    Fortitude — be it mental or physical — has been an issue for the Devils all season long. Head coach John Hynes said the team was too easy to play against, and made a statement earlier this month by healthy scratching P.A. Parenteau and Beau Bennett, and giving tough guy Luke Gazdic his season debut.

    Management was even more blunt.

    “Play harder,” Hynes said of the message GM Ray Shero and his front office staffers had for the team. “Really. Play [bleeping] harder. That’s what I’m talking about. There’s a will they need. There’s a passion and emotion to our game. How many scrums have we been involved with? No one is mad at us. There’s got to be pushback in your game and pride in your game.

    “Someone takes your lunch money, what the [expletive]? It’s not good. That’s something we established last year. It’s a tenacity to your game. Our team last year, we never gave up. That, to me, is what you’re trying to build, and that’s pride.”

    ————————————————————

    All of that sounds so very familiar. Maybe losing teams always say the same things.

  59. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    WG,

    You wouldn’t happen to have a heat map of shot location on Oiler PP goals just lying around by any chance?

    I can post a pic on twitter.

    If you’re on twitter gimme your @ and I direct it at you.

    I get it from here:

    corsica.hockey -> teams -> rink view -> adjust inputs to suit your whim

  60. Woodguy says:

    classict:
    spoiler,

    Corsica has them under teams. Just go to Rink View on the top menu bar and set strength state to PP

    And also set Event type to Goal instead of the default shots on goal

    Ha!

    Didn’t see you respond when I typed mine.

  61. Woodguy says:

    Georges: Interesting quotes from that article:

    ———————————————

    “I don’t know what happened,” Schneider said, per NorthJersey.com. “Again, a late goal in the second, 3-2, you would have thought the game was over. You would have thought it was 5-1 at that point. We just need to be stronger in the last minutes of periods, myself included, come up with the save, get to the third tied.

    “But the last couple of games that’s been an issue. I just don’t know. They get the next one and there’s the game.”

    Fortitude — be it mental or physical — has been an issue for the Devils all season long. Head coach John Hynes said the team was too easy to play against, and made a statement earlier this month by healthy scratching P.A. Parenteau and Beau Bennett, and giving tough guy Luke Gazdic his season debut.

    Management was even more blunt.

    “Play harder,” Hynes said of the message GM Ray Shero and his front office staffers had for the team. “Really. Play [bleeping] harder. That’s what I’m talking about. There’s a will they need. There’s a passion and emotion to our game. How many scrums have we been involved with? No one is mad at us. There’s got to be pushback in your game and pride in your game.

    “Someone takes your lunch money, what the [expletive]? It’s not good. That’s something we established last year. It’s a tenacity to your game. Our team last year, we never gave up. That, to me, is what you’re trying to build, and that’s pride.”

    ————————————————————

    All of that sounds so very familiar. Maybe losing teams always say the same things.

    Good get.

    I think when teams realize how bad they are, the give-a-fuck meter drops.

    Shouldn’t, but it does.

  62. frjohnk says:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2016/12/28/14097882/the-oilers-have-league-average-goaltending-rejoice-cam-talbot-oilers?utm_campaign=coppernblue&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

    Sunil with a good article that is pertinent to some of today’s discussion.

    We have wanted league average goaltending for quite some time.

    Now we have it.

    We have holes but goaltending is way down the list and I’d say the backup is the bigger hole.

    Talbot is not elite , but he is not “mediocre” either. While there a bunch of stats to look at, One of the stats I like for goalies is goals saved above average. Talbot is 22nd here. That’s decent.

    He is exactly what we’ve needed.

  63. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy: when often its just variance.

    Thanks for that. It just seems that Schneider’s variance has been swift and extreme this year. Many consecutive years of performances ranging from .919 to .936 and then bam.

  64. spoiler says:

    JDï™,

    It may indicate the hand of the Sith.

  65. JDï™ says:

    spoiler:
    JDï™,

    It may indicate the hand of the Sith.

    I was thinking it was a locker-room cancer…

    /s

  66. classict says:

    Woodguy,

    Can you get the GSAA/60 numbers on Corsica? Or were you manually doing the calculation on the raw #’s….

  67. treevojo says:

    Georges: Interesting quotes from that article:

    ———————————————

    “I don’t know what happened,” Schneider said, per NorthJersey.com. “Again, a late goal in the second, 3-2, you would have thought the game was over. You would have thought it was 5-1 at that point. We just need to be stronger in the last minutes of periods, myself included, come up with the save, get to the third tied.

    “But the last couple of games that’s been an issue. I just don’t know. They get the next one and there’s the game.”

    Fortitude — be it mental or physical — has been an issue for the Devils all season long. Head coach John Hynes said the team was too easy to play against, and made a statement earlier this month by healthy scratching P.A. Parenteau and Beau Bennett, and giving tough guy Luke Gazdic his season debut.

    Management was even more blunt.

    “Play harder,” Hynes said of the message GM Ray Shero and his front office staffers had for the team. “Really. Play [bleeping] harder. That’s what I’m talking about. There’s a will they need. There’s a passion and emotion to our game. How many scrums have we been involved with? No one is mad at us. There’s got to be pushback in your game and pride in your game.

    “Someone takes your lunch money, what the [expletive]? It’s not good. That’s something we established last year. It’s a tenacity to your game. Our team last year, we never gave up. That, to me, is what you’re trying to build, and that’s pride.”

    ————————————————————

    All of that sounds so very familiar. Maybe losing teams always say the same things.

    It is obviously hard to replace what Gionta, Schlemko, and Tootoo brought to the table.

    Those are the only big name changes I can think of.

  68. JDï™ says:

    treevojo,

    You forgot Gadzooks.

  69. spoiler says:

    Looking at these shot location maps, I’d say it behooves management to find/add scoring from distance.

    No one scores a lot from distance, and the PP maps show most scoring by defensemen comes from the middle of the ice

    But most good teams have at least some scoring from outside the low slot. The Oil not so much.

    Full credit to the coaches for squeezing some success out of this limited toolset, but I don’t know how sustainable it is. I think WG said above that Oiler PP shot rates are low. Combine that with not being able to score from outside 12 feet and it strikes me as a recipe for a painful slump.

    That said, couple caveats….

    Goals are infrequent and thus all of the above is subject to a rock concert’s worth of noise. But it does validate our eye, or at least mine.

    Shooting percentages generally go up the closer you are to the net.

  70. Georges says:

    Woodguy:
    @omgitsdomi (Dom) is a writer for Hockey Graphs.

    He has come up with a way of measuring “single game productivity” : https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/07/13/measuring-single-game-productivity-an-introduction-to-game-score/

    I don’t agree with all of it (I think it doesn’t account for QoC well, but none of the majority of stuff does) but it is interesting and pretty good for the most part.

    Here’s a list of his “Game Score” leaders among Dmen: https://twitter.com/omgitsdomi/status/813480647213940738

    Petry ranks 3rd in the NHL. (behind Burns and Letang)

    Schultz ranks 11th (I mentioned they didn’t qualify minutes using QoC properly…..)

    Larsson ranks 155th among Dmen

    Hall (in a poor-ish year) ranks 31st among fowards.

    Good times.

    That formula looks like a proxy for offense. I would hesitate to use it for defensemen, the vast majority of whom don’t drive 5v5 offense. With any method to rank defensemen, I ask where’s Vlasic? That’s my test.

  71. Woodguy says:

    classict:
    Woodguy,

    Can you get the GSAA/60 numbers on Corsica? Or were you manually doing the calculation on the raw #’s….

    Corsica gives you raw GSAA.

    They also give you TOI so its easy to figure GSAA/60

  72. Woodguy says:

    Georges: That formula looks like a proxy for offense. I would hesitate to use it for defensemen, the vast majority of whom don’t drive 5v5 offense. With any method to rank defensemen, I ask where’s Vlasic? That’s my test.

    Vlasic has been flat this year compared to other years.

    It might be Braun as they are 49% together and Vlasic is 57.8% away in 63 min.

    The stats I used are goals, primary assists, secondary assists, shots on goal, blocked shots, penalty differential, faceoffs, 5-on-5 corsi differential, 5-on-5 goal differential.

    I agree that it heavily weights offence.

    I would weight it differently for sure, but its an interesting measure.

  73. classict says:

    Woodguy,

    Yea that’s what I figured you were doing, thanks.

  74. JDï™ says:

    Panarin signs an extension today – will be interesting to see the numbers.

  75. spoiler says:

    Georges: I ask where’s Vlasic? That’s my test.

    lol… not a bad benchmark.

    My struggle with defensemen is separating out systems play. I feel real leery comparing across teams. I look at who they face and where they rank on their team for CA rates.

    As an example, I look at Larsson last year and I see Giroux, Crosby and OV all in the top 5 of his Against You minutes, while having the lowest Corsi Against rates for RHSs on the team. And so I feel like we’re getting one of their top pairing Dmen.

    But how to rate him against other team’s top pairing Dmen is troublesome. Obviously we can use scoring metrics, but we know he’s the #2 slot, not the #1 slot on a top pairing… so not-helpful.

    And judging by how low CF was, makes you wonder if the Devils employed a true checking line and ran it against The Tuffs a lot. If that’s the case, how do you make a comparison to defensemen on teams where this doesn’t happen?

  76. fifthcartel says:

    Really curious to see the terms/hit on the Panarin extension. Chicago seems to always fit everyone in but that’s bound to be a hefty contract.

  77. fifthcartel says:

    2 years, 6m AAV. So right to UFA at 27 years old, interesting. He’s going to get a mammoth contract from someone then.

  78. stush18 says:

    Woodguy: Vlasic has been flat this year compared to other years.

    It might be Braun as they are 49% together and Vlasic is 57.8% away in 63 min.

    The stats I used are goals, primary assists, secondary assists, shots on goal, blocked shots, penalty differential, faceoffs, 5-on-5 corsi differential, 5-on-5 goal differential.

    I agree that it heavily weights offence.

    I would weight it differently for sure, but its an interesting measure.

    Looks like a good way of measuring offense, as you say.

    Might work out well if paired with your DFF to show the best “overall” players.

    This is similiar to how you and g$ came to your wood money metric, no?

  79. stush18 says:

    fifthcartel:
    2 years, 6m AAV. So right to UFA at 27 years old, interesting. He’s going to get a mammoth contract from someone then.

    Think he took a paycut to stay in Chicago? Chicago got a deal imo.

  80. treevojo says:

    JDï™:
    treevojo,

    You forgot Gadzooks.

    I only took into account the players headed out that played 60+ games

  81. fifthcartel says:

    stush18,

    For a close to point per game forward I think that’s a little discount. I don’t see how they fit in his next contract so I guess these last two years are where they go all out or else they move him.

  82. Georges says:

    frjohnk:
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2016/12/28/14097882/the-oilers-have-league-average-goaltending-rejoice-cam-talbot-oilers?utm_campaign=coppernblue&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

    Sunil with a good article that is pertinent to some of today’s discussion.

    We have wanted league average goaltending for quite some time.

    Now we have it.

    We have holes but goaltending is way down the list and I’d say the backup is the bigger hole.

    Talbot is not elite , but he is not “mediocre” either. While there a bunch of stats to look at, One of the stats I like for goalies is goals saved above average. Talbot is 22nd here. That’s decent.

    He is exactly what we’ve needed.

    Last week, I posted that Manny’s xGA60 is useful for evaluating a team’s defensive performance in front of its goalie. Similarly, GSAA60 is useful for evaluating a goalie’s performance behind his skaters. In both situations, you’re effectively comparing against the average performance across all teams and goalies. Quite handy.

    I was on the Talbot needs to do more wagon until I started thinking about what save percentage is really telling us about: team play or goaltender play. At this point, I believe save percentage is mostly goaltender play with a little bit of team play.

    I tend to look at all situations stats rather than 5v5 for goalies. The xGA numbers take into account the zone that the shots were taken from. The probability of a save goes down a little bit in non-5v5 situations in all zones, and it goes down more as the danger increases. (I’m guessing the 3v3 OT time probably has an impact here that’s comparable to 5v4.) But, for now, I’m thinking the numbers are close enough that I’ll get more from seeing how a goalie does overall rather than just at 5v5.

    So you have Budaj and Rask playing a little bit above average behind excellent defensive teams and then you have Crawford and Raanta playing well above average behind not so excellent defensive teams.

    Our man Talbot acquits himself nicely here. He’s 11th out of 48 on GSAA60 for goalies who have played at least 10 games. He was also at the top on that metric in 2014-15 with NYR, a team with middle of the road defensive play. Last year he had a bad start and then found his game.

    Talbot is a very good get for us. Not as good as Dubnyk, but, as you say, he’s exactly the kind of goalie you hope you can pick up from other teams when you can’t develop a top tier goalie on your own. Yes, I know what I just wrote.

    *edit: Just to be clear, Talbot is much better than league average and he has a history of performing at that level in NYR. His save percentage numbers are mediocre because our defensive play is not great, not even mediocre. We give up fewer chances than previous years but too many chances from the high danger area. As I noted before, this might be the price we have to pay for more offense. But better offensive teams than us are posting better numbers on their defensive play. Lots to improve. Just so long as we don’t go back to easy to play against.

  83. JDï™ says:

    It’s easy to cheer for this Swiss team.

  84. stush18 says:

    fifthcartel:
    stush18,

    For a close to point per game forward I think that’s a little discount. I don’t see how they fit in his next contract so I guess these last two years are where they go all out or else they move him.

    I actually thought it was 6 total, for 3 a year. So that’s why I was so surprised lol 6 per isn’t bad, he def took a cut.

    Man Chicago is being killed by those toews and Kane contracts

  85. Georges says:

    spoiler: lol… not a bad benchmark.

    My struggle with defensemen is separating out systems play.I feel real leery comparing across teams.I look at who they face and where they rank on their team for CA rates.

    As an example, I look at Larsson last year and I see Giroux, Crosby and OV all in the top 5 of his Against You minutes, while having the lowest Corsi Against rates for RHSs on the team. And so I feel like we’re getting one of their top pairing Dmen.

    But how to rate him against other team’s top pairing Dmen is troublesome.Obviously we can use scoring metrics, but we know he’s the #2 slot, not the #1 slot on a top pairing… so not-helpful.

    And judging by how low CF was, makes you wonder if the Devils employed a true checking line and ran it against The Tuffs a lot.If that’s the case, how do you make a comparison to defensemen on teams where this doesn’t happen?

    Yeah, I’ve been thinking about what defensemen do as well. Right now, I’m leaning to most of the variance in the results (scoring, shot metrics, percentage metrics) is due to the play of the forwards (3 of them vs. 2 defensemen). Still working on it. I mention Vlasic because all he seems to do is make a very good team better.

  86. Georges says:

    stush18: I actually thought it was 6 total, for 3 a year. So that’s why I was so surprised lol 6 per isn’t bad, he def took a cut.

    Man Chicago is being killed by those toews and Kane contracts

    Yep. Toews, in particular, is getting paid for past performance. They have 3 cups and counting, but, with those contracts and Seabrook’s, that winning window is closing fast.

  87. fifthcartel says:

    Jonathan Toews ES points per 60.

    12-13 – 3.16
    13-14 – 2.35
    14-15 – 2.14
    15-16 – 1.58
    16-17 – 0.99

    I doubt Toews is now producing like a 4th liner at even strength, but man that’s a lot of huge contracts that could turn south quickly.

  88. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: lol… not a bad benchmark.

    My struggle with defensemen is separating out systems play.I feel real leery comparing across teams.I look at who they face and where they rank on their team for CA rates.

    As an example, I look at Larsson last year and I see Giroux, Crosby and OV all in the top 5 of his Against You minutes, while having the lowest Corsi Against rates for RHSs on the team. And so I feel like we’re getting one of their top pairing Dmen.

    But how to rate him against other team’s top pairing Dmen is troublesome.Obviously we can use scoring metrics, but we know he’s the #2 slot, not the #1 slot on a top pairing… so not-helpful.

    And judging by how low CF was, makes you wonder if the Devils employed a true checking line and ran it against The Tuffs a lot.If that’s the case, how do you make a comparison to defensemen on teams where this doesn’t happen?

    Excellent post.

    Its why my hair is grayer than before.

  89. Woodguy says:

    stush18: Looks like a good way of measuring offense, as you say.

    Might work out well if paired with your DFF to show the best “overall” players.

    This is similiar to how you and g$ came to your wood money metric, no?

    Not really.

    To determine if a forward was “elite” they had to rate at 4 different metrics.

    If they met our rating for all 4, we considered them “elite”

    His metric is more of a combo metric, not unlike what I did here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/03/in-search-of-right-handed-defensemen.html

    I weighted everything equally and had offensive and defensive ratings.

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