BLUE SKIES, WINTERLONG

The Edmonton Oilers had some jump and won in pretty impressive fashion against the Los Angeles Kings last night, giving us a fairly lengthy list of things to geek out on (including a dandy extra line).

  • Darryl Sutter: Hey, we played a hell of a hockey team in a tough building. You should give the Oilers a little bit of credit. Source

CAN YOU HELP ME OCCUPY MY BRAIN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-4, goal differential +3
  • Oilers after 37, 2015: 15-19-3, goal differential -20
  • Oilers after 37, 2016: 19-12-6, goal differential +10

This is the good stuff. Oilers are +30 in the goal differential at this time, have 44 points (+11 year over year) and put some daylight between themselves and one of the California Three. We agreed 14 points in 14 games for December, Edmonton is at 18 with one game to play in the month. Music!

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Numbers via HockeyStats.ca, NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.
  • Cam Talbot had another strong night, stopping 28 of 29, .966.
  • Eric Gryba—Brandon Davidson went 26-14 together in 16:28. They started slowly, but by the second period seemed to settle in to a reliable structure. They were 16-7 with McDavid’s line, who followed the same pattern (possibly connected) in finishing strong. The duo went 18-7 against the Carter line, that is some majorly opposition (Pearson—Setoguchi). Gryba with the winner, what a great night for these two.
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson went 14-10 in 17:01, 5-4 in 6:03 with Nuge, 4-1 in 4:12 with McDavid and 5-1 in 3:46 with Caggiula. Struggled with Letestu (1-4) and it was this fivesome who gave up the goal. Oscar and then Letesu had chances to get the puck out, didn’t happen. Many plays as severe or worse (hello, Milan!) did not count. Went 3-3 in 6:12 against Anze Kopitar, and that is a win.
  • Kris Russell—Matt Benning went 15-19 in 16:46 together (the entire game was basically at evens). Went 7-9 in 5:21 with McDavid, 6-7 in 5:48 with Nuge and broke even with the other two lines. Went 8-4 in 5:18 against Anze Kopitar, 3-5 in 5:01 against Jeff Carter. Benning made a nice pass to pick up an assist on the PP, most of the value for that assist came in getting the puck quickly to Eberle so he could move it just as rapidly. Russell made some really nice plays, stripping pucks and defending well. I enjoyed the pairing.
  • Lots of chatter about Edmonton being physical last night, and that is true. The Oilers beat them in the alley and the scoreboard, but notice the town team also won the possession battle, the goalie battle and the coverage battle. Big hockey players are fabulous if they can play hockey. We are several planets and 100 moons from J-F Jacques, people need to be reminded of it.

  • Darryl Sutter: Kopi’s having a really hard time finishing, so I don’t think the line had a whole lot tonight. Nugent-Hopkins line pretty much controlled – Draisaitl and Maroon – controlled that line. Source

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Pouliot—Caggiula—Puljujarvi had a brilliant game, all three men doing good things (13-4 together) and playing a lot compared to previous 4lines. Went 11-3 against McNabb—Gravel, this line earned another shot together. This is the first time in forever BP was out late into the third period, and he was effective in the checking game. I know not many agree with me on keeping Puljujarvi up and playing him, and I do wonder how much offense we will see this year, but this young fellow can play on my team any day.
  • Lucic—McDavid—Eberle went 22-16 and dominated as the evening went along. The wingers grabbed an assist each, and both wingers had some major Oh no! moments in the third period. McDavid got several good looks, but as has been the case in recent weeks, bad timing kept jumping into the sorties. Went 20-12 against Jeff Carter line and 8-3 against Drew Doughty.
  • I am not concerned about McDavid because he is getting chances.
  • Maroon—Nuge—Draisaitl went 14-11, and each man got one point on the evening. 10 shots for the line and a couple of goals. Went 9-11 against the Doughty pairing, 9-8 against the Kopitar line—that is the heart of the order against the monsters of the midway. A very good evening for a trio that seems to be developing chem.
  • Nuge with two good passers is an effective line, Peter Chiarelli needs to bring in another RW and Todd McLellan needs to play Pouliot more.
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian went 5-8 together and were certainly the 4line based on usage. The line did some grand things before the break, so a quiet evening should have been expected.

HEY, JAROMIR

It has always been a dream to see the great Jagr in an Oilers uniform—maybe they can bring back Ales Hemsky just for fun! I have zero idea if it is possible, but adding a big bottom to this forward group would both slow them down and given them a gigantic set of skilled hands. Jagrmeisters for everybody!

ON EBERLE

  • Todd McLellan: “Just a few more offensive results would be nice. He has to find ways to be productive within our system.” Source

Fine article by Mr. Tychkowski there, worth the link click. Eberle picked up two assists last night, that will help. Connor McDavid needs someone to dig the puck out ala Wayne Cashman (that is the Lucic role) and needs an expert passer who can also win wall battles and one-time pucks. Is that Eberle? Increasingly, the answer appears to be ‘maybe not’ and we wait. Right now, I think Leon Draisaitl and Jesse Puljujarvi may be better options for the 97 line, which is fairly cold 5×5 (although they did grab a point last night.

7D?

Midway through the tough sledding of the third period, I became impatient to see Andrej Sekera’s next shift. Where was he? Of course I knew he was out, but the fury of the game caught up with me and I forgot for a second. I then realized the six blue on the ice were playing mostly well, with an Oscar double clutch and a Russell double dutch here and there.

I am not saying this defense is fixed, and the team absolutely needs to grow their own No. 1 defenseman. That said, I hope we can agree that this is progress.

I love the structure and weight of a full season, we were robbed of this feeling last year. Now 82 games into his NHL career, we have a good idea about where he is as an NHLer. Stand back, we don’t know how big this point total is going to get!

I talked to Seravalli on the Lowdown yesterday, he agreed with my thoughts on Edmonton at the trade deadline: We are going to see some deals, but rentals are unlikely to be a major part of the effort. I think the Patrick Maroon move, bringing in a player who still has some term, makes the most sense for Edmonton. How does that impact the team protected list? We will see.

CURRENT PROTECTED LIST

My current list is Cam Talbot, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Brandon Davidson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle and Leon Draisaitl. That leaves Patrick Maroon, Benoit Pouliot, Mark Letestu, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Tyler Pitlick, Mark Fayne, Kris Russell (UFA), Griffin Reinhart and Laurent Brossoit exposed. Is my list similar to yours? Who do you think Edmonton will lose?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Friday show, weekend on the way, the new year is coming! Scheduled to appear beginning at 10, TSN1260:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Oilers and Leafs coming on strong, why aren’t the Jets?
  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. Cleveland rocks, Cleveland rocks, Cleveland rocks, Cleveland rocks!
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Should Peter Chiarelli trade for Jaromir Jagr, or go younger (like Iginla)?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Paul will drop in with wishes for the new year and defend the defense.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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138 Responses to "BLUE SKIES, WINTERLONG"

  1. Woodguy says:

    I’m not a fan of “heavy hockey” and think the best way to beat it is with speed.

    That said, it was nice to see more LAK on their ass than Oilers last night.

    I agree that the improved D is a key reason that the games stay close when the Oilers aren’t the better team.

    I found myself wondering out loud last night about what they’d look like if 2 took 4’s spot and 4 sat a game or two.

    Just to see, you know……

  2. Beans says:

    I like Davidson and don’t want to lose him to expansion but Maroon has been to good to let Vegas take him.

  3. Woodguy says:

    Western Conference Standings via points percentage:

    MIN 0.714
    CHI 0.671
    SJS 0.643
    STL 0.597
    EDM 0.595
    ANA 0.581
    ————————
    LAK 0.528
    DAL 0.527
    ————————-
    CGY 0.526
    NSH 0.514
    WPG 0.487
    VAN 0.458
    ARI 0.375
    COL 0.357

    They split out nicely (EC is a gong show with 5 Metropolitan division teams locks to make it)

    I think NSH will surge and the fight for the 2 wild card spots will involve 5-6 teams. (one of those finishing 3rd in the Pacific)

    If EDM can get on the North side of .600 they won’t have to worry about fighting for the last wild-card spot, but fighting for 1st or 2nd in the Pacific for home ice in the first round.

    This is an awesome feeling.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    I’m not a fan of “heavy hockey” and think the best way to beat it is with speed.

    That said, it was nice to see more LAK on their ass than Oilers last night.

    I agree that the improved D is a key reason that the games stay close when the Oilers aren’t the better team.

    I found myself wondering out loud last night about what they’d look like if 2 took 4’s spot and 4 sat a game or two.

    Just to see, you know……

    I have always liked teams who could win with a mixture of size and speed. The 1972 Bruins were a helluva team, 1987 Oilers too. 🙂

  5. dustrock says:

    Great win. Feels good man.

    Liked Larsson decision making much more last night. Draisaitl player of the game for me.

    Thought Eberle had a strong game, but not with McDavid, if that makes any sense.

    Thought the Caligula Pou Party line would get hammered but they acquitted themselves very well. Best Caggiula has looked, I think.

    Still want Lander up.

    Russell was okay but still question his decision making in both zones.

    Talbot had his twins at the game.

  6. spoiler says:

    I feel a lot better when Benning is playing for some reason.

    Woodguy: I found myself wondering out loud last night about what they’d look like if 2 took 4’s spot and 4 sat a game or two.
    Just to see, you know……

    Want this too.

  7. jm363561 says:

    Excellent team performance last night, with a hat tip to Cam for three terrific saves bailing out three of his team mates. There has been a lot of debate about why fans are not enjoying the turnaround and, for me at least, one reason is that in between these excellent games there is still too many poor, albeit resilient, performances. More games like this and we can feel confident the mid season swoon will not happen this time round and break our hearts again.

    As of today why would the club protect Ebs and risk losing Maroon?

  8. frjohnk says:

    Beans:
    I like Davidson and don’t want to lose him to expansion but Maroon has been to good to let Vegas take him.

    At this point, if we protect 3 D, we lose probably lose Davidson
    protect 4D, we probably lose Maroon.

  9. OilClog says:

    17-1-2 before last nights game, don’t think speed wins what you think it does

  10. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes. i said if team was still leading the Pacific at American Thanksgiving it would be a playoff team even if they give up the division lead. I wanted to fly up there in April. Argh kicking myself for booking into leading a cherry blossom photo expedition with Arthur Meyerson in late April. 🙁

  11. PhrankLee says:

    I loved how even coach Sutter sounded weary of the press talking about us like we are still a punching bag for the WC.

    I like size and speed for a team and do not believe that pure speed can prevail against the combo because of the front of the net.

    And the rush is easier to disrupt if you are defensively competent as a squad. San Jose looked really, really professional in all three zones. La has really fallen off at a strange time for them. I think they usually begin to pick up momentum at this time of year.

    I disagree with LT that the GA should get pinned on Letestu. I put that one on Oscar.

    We won without key, key Dmen.

    Fan-fucking-tastic.

  12. square_wheels says:

    I did not like Larson’s decision making with the puck. He spends considerable effort regaining possession and then promptly hammers it off the glass or rips it around the boards far too often. The troubling part is he does it often when he’s not under any pressure.

    Top pairing D can’t have this attribute. Full stop.

    I thought Russell had a fantastic game, had a few Sekera moments where he had open ice and just hauled ass through the neutral zone.

    Davidson once again, played his typical game – strong positionally, crisp passing, patience. Larson should be watching 88.

    If we’re going to lose one of Davi or Maroon……damn you LT don’t make me choose.

  13. dustrock says:

    You see Davidson Klefbom Russell and think “hey, that’s pretty good.” But Sekera and Nurse hurt.

    Deal from a position of strength, Chia. Too many talented LHD, too many holes elsewhere.

  14. Professor Q says:

    Don’t tease us with the Jagr Dream Move™, LT…my heart can’t handle it.

  15. Woogie63 says:

    I think the 3 minute segment where Driasaitl beat Doughty for the puck and got a dangerous shot on goal and then minutes later McDavid knocked Doughty off the puck in the LAK zone are a sign of better things to come.

  16. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    I feel a lot better when Benning is playing for some reason.

    That’s because you have good hockey instincts.

    Benning leads the Oilers Dmen in:

    CF% – 56%
    GF% – 60% (Davidson ahead with 70% but only 7gp)
    DFF% 55.5%
    DFF% vs Elite 55%
    CF% vs Elite 55.6%
    RelDFF%Comp (all) +6%
    RelDFF%Comp Elite +10.4% (!!!)
    RelCF%Comp (all) +3.4%
    RelCF%Comp Elite +6.9%

    This kid’s such a player.

  17. pocession charge says:

    At this point, I think that they protect Maroon and his cheap salary. If they leave Eberle exposed, I question whether LV takes that $6M/yr contract. If they do, then the Oilers get $6M to replace him. That seems like the smart play here.

  18. mattwatt says:

    OilClog:
    17-1-2 before last nights game, don’t think speed wins what you think it does

    Don’t think that this is a fair assumption to make. Oilers over this period had a lack of talent throughout the lineup. When your best dman is Tom Gilbert many a night (a player I like), how do you expect to compete against a Kings team with actual NHL players up and down the roster? Answer is you can’t. 17-1-2 before last nights game was a product of the Oilers being without actual NHL players. It was not a product of them playing a “speed” game.

  19. square_wheels says:

    I’m going to go out on a limb and not protect…..Eberle.

    He’s only got 2 years left and I’m not certain he’s tradable.

    What happens to the RW, not sure, but that’s not the question that was asked.

  20. Woodguy says:

    OilClog:
    17-1-2 before last nights game, don’t think speed wins what you think it does

    *looks at standing of the speedy Metropolitan divison*

    CBJ 0.794
    PIT 0.716
    NYR 0.671
    WSH 0.662
    PHI 0.595

    Ok Champ, whatever you say!

  21. pocession charge says:

    square_wheels:
    I’m going to go out on a limb and not protect…..Eberle.

    He’s only got 2 years left and I’m not certain he’s tradable.

    What happens to the RW, not sure, but that’s not the question that was asked.

    Square Wheels you seem very bright.

  22. Woodguy says:

    PhrankLee,

    I like size and speed for a team and do not believe that pure speed can prevail against the combo because of the front of the net.

    That assumes speed is small.

    CBJ has some pretty large speed and they get more shot from 3ft in front of the net than anyone.

    https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/814523016839315456

  23. hags9k says:

    Damn the Golden Knights! Thievin robbers!

    It is going to sting whoever they take. I’d protect Maroon over Davey.

    Are the official expansion rules set yet?

    You know it was a big win when WG says something about home ice in the first round. I actually goosebumped reading that.

  24. flyfish1168 says:

    Tyler Toffoli is RFA after this season RH shot and can play center. Dare I dream. Making 3.25 this season. He will get a raise. Kings are in CAP hell. Move Jordan for something we need on D. Just a thought. JMHO

  25. square_wheels says:

    pocession charge,

    As soon as I posted it and the page refreshed I seen your post 😀

    We might be the brightest guys here. I’m hungover, you ?

  26. Dino says:

    As popular as it is to hate on Chiarelli, can we at least admit that he’s been the only GM since 05/06 to put together an NHL calibre defence? That’s a big accomplishment and it deserves recognition.

    A big reason for this team’s success besides Mcdavid and Talbot has been having actual defence on the blue line. Bringing in the likes of Sekera, Larsson, Russell, Benning and Gryba had helped this team be competitive and for this reason alone Chiarelli deserves a passing grade IMO.

  27. Woodguy says:

    With all the whinging I’ve heard/read lately about RNH’s production, I thought I’d compile a list of other high priced players and their 5v5 pts/60 to see who RNH has company with this year.

    Player – 5v5 P/60 – Salary (in Millions)
    ANDREW.LADD – 1.36 – $5.50
    SEAN.MONAHAN – 1.35 – 6.38
    ANZE.KOPITAR – 1.32 – $10.00
    DUSTIN.BROWN – 1.29 – $5.86
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS – 1.29 – $6.00
    MILAN.LUCIC – 1.27 – $6.00
    LOUI.ERIKSSON – 1.21 – $6.00
    CLAUDE.GIROUX – 1.16 – $8.28
    PATRICK.MARLEAU – 1.15 – $6.67
    PAUL.STASTNY – 1.09 – $7.00
    PATRICE.BERGERON – 1.05 – $6.88
    TROY.BROUWER – 1.03 – $4.50
    JONATHAN.TOEWS – 0.96 – $10.50 – Lordy.

  28. Chachi says:

    Woodguy: *looks atstanding of the speedy Metropolitan divison*

    CBJ0.794
    PIT0.716
    NYR0.671
    WSH0.662
    PHI0.595

    Ok Champ, whatever you say!

    Looking at the heights and weights of many of the key players on those teams I wonder why you would assume it is the speed of those teams that makes the difference and why you would be so condescending about it. I am not sure that there is a “slow” team in the league any more.

  29. square_wheels says:

    flyfish1168,

    If we thought Lucic signed here cuz he has a man crush on Chia, it wasn’t just this.

    LA is going to fade with all their contracts (Brown, Kopitar, Gaborik, groin destroyed goaler). Their young guys will look elsewhere for their UFA years.

    I’d hold for Doughty. 2 more seasons after this one.

  30. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy:
    With all the whinging I’ve heard/read lately about RNH’s production, I thought I’d compile a list of other high priced players and their 5v5 pts/60 to see who RNH has company with this year.

    Player –5v5 P/60 –Salary (in Millions)
    ANDREW.LADD –1.36 –$5.50
    SEAN.MONAHAN –1.35 –6.38
    ANZE.KOPITAR –1.32 –$10.00
    DUSTIN.BROWN –1.29– $5.86
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS –1.29 –$6.00
    MILAN.LUCIC– 1.27 –$6.00
    LOUI.ERIKSSON –1.21 –$6.00
    CLAUDE.GIROUX –1.16 –$8.28
    PATRICK.MARLEAU –1.15 –$6.67
    PAUL.STASTNY –1.09 –$7.00
    PATRICE.BERGERON –1.05– $6.88
    TROY.BROUWER– 1.03 –$4.50
    JONATHAN.TOEWS –0.96 –$10.50 – Lordy.

    You thought that would help? Oilers have two on the list. Looooooooch for 6.5 more years! Whoop whoop!

  31. dustrock says:

    30 goal difference in the differential from last year. 4 more regulation wins. Still great progress though. 🙂

  32. nvan97 says:

    Can’t the Oilers and Vegas swing a deal to ensure that they pick the player the Oilers want them to? A 3rd for a 5th and Vegas takes Pouliot?

  33. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Zetterberg ? Jeebus he’s signed until 40. Wings are a friggin disaster.

  34. texmex says:

    Hello and Happy New Year to all!!

    I don’t post here very often, but read the blog and comments daily. I live in the US (from the Rock originally) and usually get the opposing teams play by play. I’ve read all the comments bashing Remenda and to be honest did not fully understand where people were coming from. I did get the Oilers feed last night showing the Miracle on Manchester clip with the Kings down a goal. WTF??? That was UNACCEPTABLE to me. Remenda was giddy hoping for a Kings comeback. He was clearly cheering for the kings and trying to jinx the Oil. I don’t get why SN would show that clip? Bizarre. I think I will watch the opposing teams play by play from now on.

  35. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    texmex,

    Hi Tex. If you have the option, always take the opposition feed. I find the Oilers’ home feed to be objectionable and unprofessional compared with most team feeds out there.

    P.S. there was a reason why Remenda was happily booted out of the Bay Area. Just ask Sharks fans.

  36. Woodguy says:

    Chachi: Looking at the heights and weights of many of the key players on those teams I wonder why you would assume it is the speed of those teams that makes the difference and why you would be so condescending about it. I am not sure that there is a “slow” team in the league any more.

    I was condescending in response to his barb:

    don’t think speed wins what you think it does

    It wasn’t out of the blue, but a response to a taunt.

    Also,

    Looking at the heights and weights of many of the key players on those teams I wonder why you would assume it is the speed of those teams that makes the difference

    Because I watch those teams play hockey often and they are fast with speed based systems.

    Why do people look at height and weight and assume “slow”?

  37. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: You thought that would help? Oilers have two on the list. Looooooooch for 6.5 more years! Whoop whoop!

    Help?

    Oh, no.

    I’m stirring the pot.

    Hehe

  38. Brantford Boy says:

    On a layover in Calgary airport…. booo Flames…

    First, lots of discussion of size vs. speed…. imo TMac likes to use a hybrid matching to the style of team we are playing. Most likely why we are in pretty much every game and since forever we can play with other dimensions in a game. This coach is known for his prepardness and surely his player assignments match the oppositions style nightly. Another reason this is working is our depth, which was evident in the defense distribution of TOI without Sekera.

    I suspect the loss of Davidson to expansion is quite probable, however I have a strange hunch about it being Laurent Brossoit. AHL established goalie with lots of potential, could be interesting.

  39. sliderule says:

    The oilers would have a lot more team speed if they hadn’t done the following.

    Traded Rieder for a coke machine
    Traded Cogliano for a second round pick.

    The oilers of the past never realy valued speed over gritinsity

  40. Woogie63 says:

    square_wheels:
    I’m going to go out on a limb and not protect…..Eberle.

    He’s only got 2 years left and I’m not certain he’s tradable.

    What happens to the RW, not sure, but that’s not the question that was asked.

    Why do we want to trade our 1RW?

    In the prime of his career?

    Without an obvious replacement?

  41. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Serious question – would you pay a buck or 2 for a live stream/periscope/YouTube that is essentially an audio companion of some of the voices from or similar to here ?

    Why, in 2016, do we all mute Sportsnet ? We’re paying for it but we can’t stand it ?!?!

  42. square_wheels says:

    Woogie63,

    Not a trade.

    A forced hand makes the decision with least amount of downside risk.

  43. GCW_69 says:

    Beans:
    I like Davidson and don’t want to lose him to expansion but Maroon has been to good to let Vegas take him.

    One option is to sign Russell to a deal without draft protection and then expose him with Davidson and Reinhart. Does Vegas take Davidson in that scenario? Hard to say.

  44. Chachi says:

    Woodguy: I was condescending in response to his barb:

    don’t think speed wins what you think it does

    It wasn’t out of the blue, but a response to a taunt.

    Also,

    Looking at the heights and weights of many of the key players on those teams I wonder why you would assume it is the speed of those teams that makes the difference

    Because I watch those teams play hockey often and they are fast with speed based systems.

    Why do people look at height and weight and assume “slow”?

    I watch those teams play often as well. I would say they play quickly. They let the puck do a lot of the work. There is a difference between that and a “speed based system” to me anyways. I don’t think anyone here assumed big means slow.

  45. Woogie63 says:

    square_wheels:
    Woogie63,

    Not a trade.

    A forced hand makes the decision with least amount of downside risk.

    I didn’t like the word trade in my question, but too lazy to edit it.

    Man I see lots of downside losing a 25 year 1RW in the prime of his career. We have no replacement for Eberle, I have him on my protected list.

  46. Glass says:

    I think there are two possible scenarios. Chiarelli strengthens the D by packaging one of Nuge/Ebs with Davidson to acquire that awesome RHD + picks or whatever. This isn’t optimal in my opinion, as you’d be selling low on either of those $6M players. Chia proceeds to protect 4/4 (including Maroon in stead of the traded $6M player).

    In the second scenario, Chia acknowledges it is likely Davidson gets claimed, and elects to trade him for a solid RW/RHD. This is done to protect Nuge, Draisaitl, Eberle, Lucic, Maroon, Letestu, ‘X’ (the newly acquired forward).

    The ‘X’ is an idea I have. If it’s such a given that Davidson gets claimed, wouldn’t he be able to fetch us a pretty decent RW or RHC?

    If we leave Kassian open, I doubt Vegas would want that unnecessary risk due to his past.
    Letestu is an important guy in the bottom 6, plays in all situations, and is having a good season – keep him.

    On Pouliot: The money for new contracts have to come from somewhere. He has been on the outs with the coach, hasn’t been able to win a top 6 role, and is far too expensive for what he brings in a bottom 6 role. Also, I see Caggulia as the future middle 6 guy when Pouliot is gone, I don’t think we have seen Drake play his natural position (LW) since he got here.

    Out of the above scenarios, I’d protect 7F 3D. We’ve been building this forward core brick by brick, and I’d hate to see a Maroon or Letestu being taken. Losing Davidson would be tough, however trading him to further strengthen our forward core might be the move.

  47. oscarmike says:

    Woodguy,

    What about Tavares, Bobby Ryan and Sam Gagner

  48. square_wheels says:

    Woogie63,

    My concern is he’s a 6M one dimensional RW with declining production. I don’t think Tmac values his skill set. This is more of a projection on my part, not necessarily what I would like to happen.

    Interesting enough, I know some Eberle family members who strongly indicated the one team that constantly pursued him in previous years was Boston.

    So, Chia clearly appreciates goal scorers, but Ebs is having a very difficult time adjusting to the new realities of the NHL. You have to be big or quick.

  49. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    square_wheels:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Serious question – would you pay a buck or 2 for a live stream/periscope/YouTube that is essentially an audio companion of some of the voices from or similar to here ?

    Why, in 2016, do we all mute Sportsnet ? We’re paying for it but we can’t stand it ?!?!

    Sure I would pay that. But my preferred scenario is to have all the sounds of the game but have the option to mute play by play/colour commentary.

  50. Woogie63 says:

    How will an expansion team in Las Vegas select players?

    I think the team will place a high emphasis on competing for the ENTERTAINMENT dollar.

    McPhee will need goals and names to compete in this market. New hockey fans will be choosing between hockey and Celine Dion tickets.

    Not sure LB or Davidson are the type of player the Golden Nights will be pursuing.

  51. Centre of attention says:

    New York Islanders ‏@NYIslanders · 4m4 minutes ago

    #Isles Transaction: Jaroslav Halak has been placed on waivers.

    What is going on?

  52. kinger_OIL says:

    Two things:

    1) I think its time to admit that this team is likely a seeded team in playoffs at best, or a terror to be playing in 1st round at least. And with a proper move or two before deadline a really deadly team.

    2) I do love the idea of a LT feed. Maybe not during the game but at intermissions. He can have some guests on, a few commentators. Analysis in real-time. I would susbscribe to that serivce.

  53. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Glass,

    The Oilers are going to lose someone decent. Trading that player to lose someone else instead makes little sense to me…
    unless that trade is an upgrade or addresses legitimate need.

  54. square_wheels says:

    kinger_OIL,

    1 – yes
    2 – hell ya

  55. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention:
    New York Islanders ‏@NYIslanders· 4m4 minutes ago

    #Isles Transaction: Jaroslav Halak has been placed on waivers.

    What is going on?

    They have been trying to trade him since the end of October. No takers I guess.

  56. Woodguy says:

    Peter likes goal metrics, so here’s some on the Dmen (can you tell my network is down at work and I’m bored?)

    5v5 On Ice SH% (Peter has attributed ONSH% to a Dman publicly…..)

    Player Sh%
    BRANDON.DAVIDSON 10.42
    MATTHEW.BENNING 9.43
    KRIS.RUSSELL 7.92
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 7.69
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 7.30
    ADAM.LARSSON 7.29
    DARNELL.NURSE 6.45
    ERIC.GRYBA 5.63

    5v5 On Ice Goal Share

    Player GF%
    BRANDON.DAVIDSON 71.43
    MATTHEW.BENNING 62.50
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 58.33
    ERIC.GRYBA 57.14
    KRIS.RUSSELL 54.29
    DARNELL.NURSE 45.16
    ADAM.LARSSON 44.44
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 43.40

    Now here’s the same two lists, except this time its all TOI without McDavid:

    5v5 On Ice Shooting Percentage (SH%)

    BRANDON.DAVIDSON WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 12.00 (small sample)
    MATTHEW.BENNING WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 7.88
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 6.80
    KRIS.RUSSELL WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 6.80
    ADAM.LARSSON WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 6.51
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 5.15
    ANDREJ.SEKERA WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 4.97
    ERIC.GRYBA WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 4.82

    5v5 Goal Share (GF%)

    GF%
    BRANDON.DAVIDSON WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 60.00 (small sample)
    MATTHEW.BENNING WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 58.81
    KRIS.RUSSELL WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 47.62
    ANDREJ.SEKERA WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 47.37
    ERIC.GRYBA WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 44.44
    ADAM.LARSSON WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 42.42
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 40.00
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID 33.33

    WIth the Leftorium full to capacity and getting a feel for what Peter values, it looks more and more like Klefbom will be the trade bait for another RHD or RW.

    I wonder about a deal with COL centered around RNH + Klef + ? for Duchene and Barrie if COL really wants to “change the culture”

    Duchene is the better C, but Klef is the better Dman (imo)

    Hmmmmmm.

  57. square_wheels says:

    Centre of attention,

    3.23 GAA and a .904 SV%

    4.5 M this year and next.

    LA could take a chance ?

  58. Woodguy says:

    oscarmike:
    Woodguy,

    What about Tavares, Bobby Ryan and Sam Gagner

    Gagner 2.15 – $0.650
    Ryan 1.75 – $7.25
    Tavares 1.55 – $5.50

    Only Tavares is under-performing. My cut off was 1.40 and less when I went trolling

    Goneya’s been getting 4C 5v5 minutes and feasting.

    I don’t understand why more teams don’t hire scorers for the 4th and hire stick optional checkers who are almost guaranteed to get outscored.

    I think that’s changing too.

  59. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Oscar is not doing himself any favours and if Barrie is just an equivalent RH version than I can get behind that.

    Duchesne is dreamy.

    So we’re good. Phone the league, we just made a trade.

  60. NF Oiler says:

    I could not agree more with protecting Davidson..he just seems to get better and better…I understand it would mean exposing Maroon and Kassian which would be huge loses to the roster but it’s all about assists management…a dman who can play and who is getting better has more value then a couple power forwards with one year left on their deals….losing a guy like Davidson for nothing makes zero sense

  61. Woodguy says:

    square_wheels:
    Woodguy,

    Oscar is not doing himself any favours and if Barrie is just an equivalent RH version than I can get behind that.

    Duchesne is dreamy.

    So we’re good. Phone the league, we just made a trade.

    book it!

  62. Confused says:

    Excited by the win, play-offs are so close I can nearly touch them.

    Davidson have several bad moments in the first, while Maroon scored.

    7+3 almost guaranted, can we sell Davidson.

    Rumour is LB has already blown his trial and we are back in who play back-up?

    Come on Ellis, let’s show the disbelievers!z

  63. Dino says:

    I would do Duchene and Barrie for RNH and Klefbom in a heartbeat. Plus they’re both RH shots!!

  64. J-Bo says:

    I love Brandon Davidson but there is no way I protect him before Maroon. Why? The leftorium! I know about the value contract etc…, but in my view he is simply more easy to replace. 7-3-1 every darn day of the week!

  65. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    I think your Larson post is going to ruin your am.

    And I think your boss might have something to say about you ducking the dog on a hockey website, get to work 😀

    Benson signed his EL contract ! Woot.

  66. Woogie63 says:

    square_wheels:
    Woogie63,

    My concern is he’s a 6M one dimensional RW with declining production. I don’t think Tmac values his skill set. This is more of a projection on my part, not necessarily what I would like to happen.

    Interesting enough, I know some Eberle family members who strongly indicated the one team that constantly pursued him in previous years was Boston.

    So, Chia clearly appreciates goal scorers, but Ebs is having a very difficult time adjusting to the new realities of the NHL.You have to be big or quick.

    I get your point. I see value in Eberle until he can replaced with a legit NHL right winger.

    I wonder if we know the same family members?

  67. VOR says:

    Woodguy,

    I just wanted to answer your question from last night. I spent five years in the belly of the beast. I started off as an algorithm monkey. I ended up managing book.

    That was more than 35 years ago.

    27 years ago I started my own consulting business. Ever since I have had clients in the gaming industry. Lest that sound glamorous I write algos, mine don’t predict events they help manage the book. Since I have binding NDAs I will stop there.

  68. square_wheels says:

    Woogie63,

    If you work in Oil and Gas or in the instrumentation/controls field, we may.

  69. Dino says:

    Halak on waivers? Only shitty part about being good now is we don’t get waiver priority 🙁

  70. stush18 says:

    J-Bo:
    I love Brandon Davidson but there is no way I protect him before Maroon. Why? The leftorium! I know about the value contract etc…, but in my view he is simply more easy to replace. 7-3-1 every darn day of the week!

    Sign Russell to a 2 yr contract, protect 7-3-1, and let Vegas choose between Russell and Davidson. Either way, next year we have 3ld figured out.

  71. square_wheels says:

    stush18,

    I think Chia wants this, hence the chatter by the MSM about a Russell contract. If we sign him though, would he demand a NMC/NTC ?

  72. pocession charge says:

    J-Bo:
    I love Brandon Davidson but there is no way I protect him before Maroon. Why? The leftorium! I know about the value contract etc…, but in my view he is simply more easy to replace. 7-3-1 every darn day of the week!

    No way. Keep your best, cheapest players. How do you replace a real NHL defenseman who is on a value contract? Pretty difficult to do.

  73. Atc-Nate says:

    VOR,

    Does your VOR name tag stand for VHF omnidirectional range? I’m in air traffic control and VORs are an aircraft navigational aid.

    On another note, I don’t think Vegas takes Kassian, not with one of Davidson or Maroon unprotected. There will be enough 3rd and 4th liners available. Davidson (imo) is a 3 dman and Maroon is a body banging 2/3 liner with offense. Ie, Kassian plus goals.

    I am hoping that Chia can keep both Davidson and Maroon by throwing a draft pick at Vegas plus a prospect, or maybe just throw Griffin Reinhart because that’s like a first and second round pick, am I right?

  74. pocession charge says:

    square_wheels:
    stush18,

    I think Chia wants this, hence the chatter by the MSM about a Russell contract. If we sign him though, would he demand a NMC/NTC ?

    If he does, then tell him to pound salt.

  75. Woogie63 says:

    square_wheels:
    Woogie63,

    If you work in Oil and Gas or in the instrumentation/controls field, we may.

    Nope different field of work.

    In fact, retiring today. 31 years working full time ends today.

  76. oscarmike says:

    Oilers can’t trade Pouloit, Nuge or Eberle for a defence man or anything else and hope to get fair value. Since Nuge and Ebs are part of the last core, that money needs to be freed up to sign the next core( Nurse-Mcdavid, Drai,Jesse

  77. square_wheels says:

    pocession charge,

    And this is just the dynamics of one NHL team. Consider other clubs have as big or even bigger issues, having to protect all their NMC aging vets or offer draft picks to Vegas to take them.

    Or offer us a trade deadline rental for next to nothing because the player is getting better odds of not going to Vegas than getting scooped from Edmonton’s list.

  78. square_wheels says:

    Woogie63,

    Good for you man, hope it was on your terms.

    Retirement is a gift, enjoy it.

  79. Roughneck says:

    Woogie63: Nope different field of work.

    In fact, retiring today.31 years working full time ends today.

    Awesome!

  80. Professor Q says:

    Now just imagine the Québec Expansion Draft in a few years…

  81. pocession charge says:

    square_wheels:
    pocession charge,

    And this is just the dynamics of one NHL team. Consider other clubs have as big or even bigger issues, having to protect all their NMC aging vets or offer draft picks to Vegas to take them.

    Or offer us a trade deadline rental for next to nothing because the player is getting better odds of not going to Vegas than getting scooped from Edmonton’s list.

    There is going to be lots of opportunity to grab decent wingers for cheap before the expansion draft. Chia should keep his powder dry until he finds a good deal. The only active trade that I would consider right now is something to balance the L-R defence. A Klefbom-Trouba deal would make some sense for both teams.

  82. square_wheels says:

    Professor Q,

    Alberta transfer payments drying up, they can’t afford to subsidize seat prices as well ?

  83. pocession charge says:

    Professor Q:
    Now just imagine the Québec Expansion Draft in a few years…

    They might take Pouliot!

  84. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    texmex,

    Hi Tex. If you have the option, always take the opposition feed. I find the Oilers’ home feed to be objectionable and unprofessional compared with most team feeds out there.

    P.S. there was a reason why Remenda was happily booted out of the Bay Area. Just ask Sharks fans.

    I think Remenda gets a bit of a bad rap. I would rather have a somewhat objective commentator than Kelly Hrudey, who is such a blatant homer and always making excuses for the Flames bad play. Remenda has some flaws, but I don’t need colour guys blowin smoke up our asses either. We need the Buck Martinez of hockey.

  85. fifthcartel says:

    I love Maroon and I feel he has a chance to score 20 with or without McDavid, but I don’t think they should protect him. Find the next Patrick Maroon and protect Davidson instead.

  86. Woogie63 says:

    square_wheels:
    Woogie63,

    Good for you man, hope it was on your terms.

    Retirement is a gift, enjoy it.

    Thanks.

    Yup nice package until mid 2018 and then a pension that would make a politician blush.

    I am ready for what is next.

  87. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    JimmyV1965: I think Remenda gets a bit of a bad rap.I would rather have a somewhat objective commentator than Kelly Hrudey, who is such a blatant homer and always making excuses for the Flames bad play. Remenda has some flaws, but I don’t need colour guys blowin smoke up our asses either.We need the Buck Martinez of hockey.

    I did not say anything about needing homer colour guys. In fact, I prefer the opposite. Living away from Edmonton for a long time now has meant I use NHL Game Center to watch my games, giving me the option of choosing the Edmonton feed or the opposing team’s feed. Consistently for years, other than perhaps the brief Ray Ferraro appearances, the opposing team’s feed has been vastly superior to the Edmonton feed. It has nothing to do with homerism, it is about calm, relatively objective commentating and intelligent contributions to the understanding of the game. The Oilers feeds have interesting personalities but they do nothing to enhance our further understanding of the game. Of course everyone has his or her good moments and attributes. Principe’s piece with Maroon the other night was touching, for example. Nonetheless if the option is available I choose the opposing feed almost every time (a few exceptions–I cannot listen to the Bruins , Flames, Canucks or Sabres feeds, for example).

    P.S. Buck Martinez’ hockey equivalent would be wonderful.

  88. classict says:

    Could Russell, or anyone on an expiring contract in this hypothetical situation, be re signed on a short contract with a big chunk of the money paid as signing bonus?

    Would that make it a more attractive contract for LV to pick up if they agreed to select that player in the draft before the contract was offered to the player?

  89. PokeCheck says:

    Is there anything to stop the Oilers from working out a deal with LV to pass on whichever of Maroon or Davidson is left unprotected?

  90. John Chambers says:

    Dino:
    I would do Duchene and Barrie for RNH and Klefbom in a heartbeat. Plus they’re both RH shots!!

    This would actually be a good deal for Colorado.

    Including this season, Duchesne and Barrie are under contract for 3 and 4 years respectively, while RNH and Klef are under contract for 5 and 7. Colorado gets five additional years worth of cont-controlled players.

    It would also put the Oilers in win-now mode. I would do it.

  91. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    John Chambers: This would actually be a good deal for Colorado.

    Including this season, Duchesne and Barrie are under contract for 3 and 4 years respectively, while RNH and Klef are under contract for 5 and 7. Colorado gets five additional years worth of cont-controlled players.

    It would also put the Oilers in win-now mode. I would do it.

    Yup, Duchene > RNH / Klefbom > Barrie

    But… if in win now mode, send a pick, prospect & cap dump to Arizona for Hanzal
    Send Hendricks off into the sunset to get a pick back.

    Pouliot-McDavid-Duchene
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Eberle
    Maroon-Hanzal-Puljujarvi
    Lander-Letestu-Kassian

    Sekera(L)-Barrie (R)
    Davidson (L)-Larsson (R)
    Russell (L)-Gryba (R)
    Nurse (L)

    Upgrade on backup G as well.

    That looks closer to balance and two killer lines up top.

  92. classict says:

    PokeCheck,

    I think in the past teams have traded picks for future considerations, with those considerations being who the other team selects in the expansion draft.

    I haven’t seen any rules explicitly against it. But unless there’s huge talent gap between unprotected players it probably doesn’t make sense to. Everyone is losing a player, why lose a player and a pick. It just means you gave up more than everyone else.

  93. stush18 says:

    square_wheels:
    stush18,

    I think Chia wants this, hence the chatter by the MSM about a Russell contract. If we sign him though, would he demand a NMC/NTC ?

    Then I don’t sign him. Not worth it.

  94. Woodguy says:

    square_wheels:
    Woodguy,

    I think your Larson post is going to ruin your am.

    And I think your boss might have something to say about you ducking the dog on a hockey website, get to work

    Benson signed his EL contract ! Woot.

    Lucky for me, I’m the boss!

  95. Woodguy says:

    VOR:
    Woodguy,

    I just wanted to answer your question from last night. I spent five years in the belly of the beast. I started off as an algorithm monkey. I ended up managing book.

    That was more than 35 years ago.

    27 years ago I started my own consulting business. Ever since I have had clients in the gaming industry. Lest that sound glamorous I write algos, mine don’t predict events they help manage the book. Since I have binding NDAs I will stop there.

    Very cool.

    Appreciate you sharing some of what you know.

  96. Clarkenstein says:

    Encouraging sign to me from last night… Oil played their #7 and #8 D-men (with Sekera and Nurse out) and basically didn’t give up any fire drills in their own end. A year ago they have no chance of winning this game under those circumstances.

  97. Professor Q says:

    pocession charge: They might take Pouliot!

    That easy, eh?

  98. Woodguy says:

    Woogie63: Nope different field of work.

    In fact, retiring today.31 years working full time ends today.

    Wooooot!

    Congrats!

  99. Woodguy says:

    Professor Q:
    Now just imagine the Québec Expansion Draft in a few years…

    Carolina has lots of players so the New Nords will be fine.

    Seattle with need an expansion draft though.

  100. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    I know, your the WoodMaster, couldn’t you sense my sarcasm in this “perfectly acceptable way to communicate between humans who have evolved to use nuance and emotional queue’s” to get their points across ?

    If you really want to see how fucktarded (not a word, but suitable) the world has become, follow on Twitter :
    @thesafestspace
    @jordanbpeterson

    If you think debates about hockey have become painful, wait until you send a high school student to a Uni or College to study.

    Both mentioned above are doing a great job of pointing out the fallacy of the modern “online” presence. This season’s South Park absolutely destroyed this world of trolls – simply put, block/ignore is the best method. I always suggest fresh air, works well.

  101. square_wheels says:

    Professor Q,

    Gotta sell tickets and compete with the Habs.

    If I’m in charge of marketing – poutine night !!

    My Vegas marketing strategy features the Knights Who Say Ni Night – fans will be encouraged to bring shrubbery (and if they stink up the game, just throw the damn things on the ice !

  102. Chachi says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Yup, Duchene > RNH / Klefbom > Barrie

    But… if in win now mode, send a pick, prospect & cap dump to Arizona for Hanzal
    Send Hendricks off into the sunset to get a pick back.

    Pouliot-McDavid-Duchene
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Eberle
    Maroon-Hanzal-Puljujarvi
    Lander-Letestu-Kassian

    Sekera(L)-Barrie (R)
    Davidson (L)-Larsson (R)
    Russell (L)-Gryba (R)
    Nurse (L)

    Upgrade on backup G as well.

    That looks closer to balance and two killer lines up top.

    Does Duchene play a lot of right wing now? He’s a left hand shot, no? Love the idea of bringing in Hanzal even though he is not so hot right now.

  103. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Chachi,

    An itch to scratch…speed with McDavid. Maybe it does not work and you move him down to 2C but then you move Drai to 1RW because of his backhand.

  104. Chachi says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Chachi,

    An itch to scratch…speed with McDavid. Maybe it does not work and you move him down to 2C but then you move Drai to 1RW because of his backhand.

    That would certainly work.

  105. kgo says:

    Chachi: Love the idea of bringing in Hanzal even though he is not so hot right now.

    Love the subtle Mugatu reference, so subtle i’m not even sure it was intentional.

  106. Chachi says:

    kgo: Love the subtle Mugatu reference, so subtle i’m not even sure it was intentional.

    Not sure what you mean, I was just at the “Center For Children Who Can’t Read Good And Wanna Learn To Do Other Stuff Good Too” when I posted that so might have been a little distracted.

  107. gogliano says:

    Maroon will have one year left at $2 million and then expires as a UFA. (If he keeps cashing, he will get paid. If he doesn’t, he isn’t worth protecting.) So we’d really be protecting one year of Maroon.

    Davidson has one year left at $1.425 and then expires with one year left as an RFA (arbitration eligible). So we’d be protecting 2 years of Davidson — one under contract and one RFA year at a price TBD. He does not have the offense or history to demand top dollar yet and the one year of RFA is a value add for Edmonton that can be rolled into a value longer term deal.

    I’d protect Davidson, and let them choose between Maroon and Russell (if signed). The contract situation makes this an easy decision, but I’d still protect Davidson if the contracts were equal.

  108. VOR says:

    ATC-NATE,

    I was one of those air cadet geeks. I was in it for the navigation. I never thought of flying. I was sort of planning a long term career as an airforce navigator.

    Then I got the chance to go to Penhold and learn to soar. My instructor said you will either feel it or you won’t. I can’t imagine how anyone can’t feel the air. It was love at first flight. Flying followed soaring and I started seriously planning a career as a pilot in the airforce.

    Then one day I flunked my physical. I was 19. I ended up requiring surgery for the problem when I was 58.

    I use VOR as a handle to remind myself that in life our flight plans change frequently. In fact, they can be damn hard to figure out. A little navigational assistance would come in very handy.

  109. khildahl says:

    square_wheels:
    Professor Q,

    Gotta sell tickets and compete with the Habs.

    If I’m in charge of marketing –poutine night !!

    My Vegas marketing strategy features the Knights Who Say Ni Night – fans will be encouraged to bring shrubbery (and if they stink up the game, just throw the damn thingson the ice !

    That would work for a while, but what would the fans do after they change to the Knights Who Say Ekki-Ekki-Ekki-Ekki-PTANG. Zoom-Boing. Z’nourrwringmm?

  110. JimmyV1965 says:

    square_wheels:
    Woogie63,

    My concern is he’s a 6M one dimensional RW with declining production. I don’t think Tmac values his skill set. This is more of a projection on my part, not necessarily what I would like to happen.

    Interesting enough, I know some Eberle family members who strongly indicated the one team that constantly pursued him in previous years was Boston.

    So, Chia clearly appreciates goal scorers, but Ebs is having a very difficult time adjusting to the new realities of the NHL.You have to be big or quick.

    There are are more than 90 first line players in this league. Eberle is ina slump, yet he’s still likely in the top half of that group. Does he flaws? Sure. Is he in a slump. For sure. But he does the one thing better than most – score goals. If the Oilers don;t value this, there are plenty of teams that do.

  111. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Edmontonians will probably have their own list but since I noticed quite a few people planning first trips to the new rink of late thought I would post this here.

    I need to pick a game and go up there as well.

    Meanwhile it is 22C and quiet here in the desert as I gaze upon my mountain. Have to change gears to think about Edmonton winter (which I never minded when I was living there. I would be at the outdoor rinks in Riverbend every day). http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-s-best-restaurants-2016-1.3904137

  112. stush18 says:

    JimmyV1965: There are are more than 90 first line players in this league. Eberle is ina slump, yet he’s still likely in the top half of that group. Does he flaws? Sure. Is he in a slump. For sure. But he does the one thing better than most – score goals. If the Oilers don;t value this, there are plenty of teams that do.

    I think the problem is eberle isn’t scoring anymore.

    He’s collecting assists. We need a goal scorer on that line, because lucic has been a distributer forever.

  113. sliderule says:

    Woodguy: Lucky for me, I’m the boss!

    Your not married?😄

  114. Atc-Nate says:

    VOR,

    Thanks for taking the time to explain … Cool stuff.

  115. Tapdog says:

    pocession charge,

    Seems like bad asset management then? IF you will expose Eb’s then why not trade him for a piece that may be useful and a pick. Even if the useful piece gets claimed, you still have the pick to show.
    Get my meaning?

  116. Georges says:

    Yesterday, WG posted:

    The only thing that is certain is that the team’s that get the majority of the shots are, over time, the better teams and that those teams tend to win more, and win more Stanley Cups, than the others.

    There’s some nuance to the win more Stanley Cups part. Here’s the regular season SF% and ranking in all situations for the Stanley Cup winners for the past 9 years according to hockeyanalysis:

    Rank Team SF%
    2 Pitt 52.8
    6 Chi 52.8
    3 LA 54.7
    3 Chi 54.3
    6 LA 52.7
    17 Bos 50.1
    1 Chi 57.6
    21 Pitt 48.9
    1 Det 59.3

    Looks good. Except for Boston and the first Pittsburgh, recent winners have been near the top at the shot battle. Now let’s take a look at the save percentage numbers for these teams.

    Rank Team sv%
    2 Pitt 91.9
    2 Chi 92.5
    3 LA 92.2
    3 Chi 92.3
    4 LA 92.4
    1 Bos 93.0
    23 Chi 90.2
    14 Pitt 90.6
    13 Det 90.8

    Hmm, the past 6 winners have also been at the top in save percentage.

    The first Pittsburgh team was unusual in that they weren’t good on SF% or on sv%. They had a young Crosby and Malkin and a high shooting percentage. Boston had Tim Thomas and his pumped up tires playing lights out.

    The first Chicago and Detroit teams were at the top on SF% and mediocre on sv%. The reason they could get away with this is because they were so good on SF%, 57.6 for Chicago and 59.3(!) for Detroit. Recent Cup winners haven’t been able to get past 55 on SF%. They’re still ranking at the top but their shots edge hasn’t been as big as those two earlier winners.

    What this shows is that the way the goal difference math works, if your shots edge is big, you can have mediocre PDO metrics and still be much better than the league. If your edge isn’t that big, then you need some good news on the PDO front. Recent winners have had as good results on sv% as on SF%.

    Last year and this year so far, the variance in shot metrics has been lower than previous years. I’m wondering if this is due to a shift in front office thinking because of the fancystats emphasis on shot metrics. Or it could just be a blip and we could see very strong possession teams soon. The best SF% result so far this year is Boston: 55.6.

    Until we see very strong possession teams over a whole season in the league, it’s best to mind the PDO. All of the darlings so far this year (CBJ, MIN, NYR, MTL, CHI, PIT) have very good to super duper PDO numbers and ho hum possession numbers. I think fancystats says those teams are supposed to come back to earth. That’s what fancystats said about previous PDO kings COL, CGY, and TOR – but those teams were probably horrible on shot metrics…

  117. D'oh-ilers says:

    Halak would be a perfect addition as 1B/backup for the remainder of the season. The team would be able to move him in the offseason so the team isn’t carrying $8.7m in goaltenders next October. His numbers aren’t great, but he’s a far superior option to Gustavsson. I doubt Chia takes him if he’s able to, though.

  118. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    D’oh-ilers,

    Wouldn’t be able to move that contract in summer without giving up another pick along with it. Or is that part of your design.

    Also, the team does not have the cap room for this season with Drai and McDavid bonuses added.

  119. trencan says:

    I do not post here very often because of my english but hope you will understand what I want to say.

    We mostly look at the impact of the players through their goals, powerplay points, blocking shots, save percentage… Thats always cool to use some neural networks, regression models for predictions or K-means for some segmentation on hard data available from different servers and sources (hard data). But there are often also some soft data, for example whats the personality of the player, how does he react in nervous situations, is he selfish or team player…? The equation of players impact is in my opinion more complex (hard data + soft data) and we mostly look through only one dimension (hard data). The soft data are probably available only to coaches and some insiders… Milan is in my opinion a good example of this – I believe that his biggest impact is in dressing room, probably he is an important part of the change of Oilers mentality.

    I do not like the idea trading Nuge, his value is currently probably low so it doesnt make even sense to me and I still believe in him as 2C in the future, he needs to find his wingers and chemistry with them. Maybe his productivity this year is not that high, but he can also defend pretty good, so you can use him in different situations and he serves pretty well in my opinion. All he needs is time, help and patience. There are always good and bad days. He will be good. His salary today is probably high,yes, but from long term view maybe not. It depends on salary cap rise in the future and salary management by Chia ( there are some good examples how to do it). Funny, some fans after one match want immediately to trade a player and after another game the same player is in “must protected” group. Thanks god that we fans are not GMs :).

    There is a lot of positive surprises this season, one of the biggest for me is Draisaitl, who seems to be compatible with both – Connor & RNH. I expected more goals and sniper role from Eberle. Jesse could be fantastic player in the future I believe, maybe only different type than some fans expected.

    I also think its impossible now to predict who to protect. It will depend on future offers and trades, I believe it will be very interesting before trade deadline with some surprises, maybe panic trades under pressure… It will show us who is good GM and who is not…

    Good night, respectively have a nice day guys 🙂

  120. Professor Q says:

    gogliano:
    Maroon will have one year left at $2 million and then expires as a UFA.(If he keeps cashing, he will get paid.If he doesn’t, he isn’t worth protecting.)So we’d really be protecting one year of Maroon.

    Davidson has one year left at $1.425 and then expires with one year left as an RFA (arbitration eligible). So we’d be protecting 2 years of Davidson — one under contract and one RFA year at a price TBD.He does not have the offense or history to demand top dollar yet and the one year of RFA is a value add for Edmonton that can be rolled into a value longer term deal.

    I’d protect Davidson, and let them choose between Maroon and Russell (if signed).The contract situation makes this an easy decision, but I’d still protect Davidson if the contracts were equal.

    Although if Vegas signs Russell, he counts as their drafted player, non?

  121. Professor Q says:

    What does anyone think an expected or decent ask for Jagr would be? Would it have to be part of a larger deal?

  122. Woodguy says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Encouraging sign to me from last night… Oil played their #7 and #8 D-men (with Sekera and Nurse out) and basically didn’t give up any fire drills in their own end.A year ago they have no chance of winning this game under those circumstances.

    Agreed.

    The biggest difference this year is the 3rd pair is the best pairing in terms of shot/goal share this year and in previous years they were a black hole.

  123. Spengler says:

    Hypothetical question regarding an as of yet unsure future:

    If Vegas selected Maroon, do they pay just the Edmonton salary or the Anaheim portion as well?

  124. Professor Q says:

    Denmark is doing so well. I’m a very proud Danish Descendant at the moment.

    Sacrilege, I know. 😉

  125. Professor Q says:

    I also love how they have two players named “True” and “From”. 😂

  126. Doug McLachlan says:

    Davidson is a home-grown d-man on an inexpensive contract who can play effectively in the NHL. You protect him even if that exposes a winger or two.

    Perhaps we have forgotten but serviceable d-men on an affordable ticket cost a pretty penny in this league.

  127. New Improved Darkness says:

    I was looking at the Tracy–Widom distribution the other day.

    Mysterious Statistical Law May Finally Have an Explanation — 2014

    Majumdar and Schehr have since accrued substantial evidence that the Tracy-Widom distribution and its large deviation tails represent a universal phase transition between weak- and strong-coupling phases.

    In May’s ecosystem model, for example, the critical point at √2N separates a stable phase of weakly coupled species, whose populations can fluctuate individually without affecting the rest, from an unstable phase of strongly coupled species, in which fluctuations cascade through the ecosystem and throw it off balance.

    In general, Majumdar and Schehr believe, systems in the Tracy-Widom universality class exhibit one phase in which all components act in concert and another phase in which the components act alone.

    I wonder if this applies to the NHL where strongly coupled = RFAs will return your phone calls, and weakly coupled = RFAs hide caller-ID before the wife can see it.

    Woodguy’s theories always strike me as the theory of correct management under the assumption that you have enough liquidity to apply the theory of correct management (which requires strongly-coupled market dynamics in order to successfully implement).

    We you fall below √2N, you can’t manage a sufficient pace of plus transactions to maintain roster balance level flight. As your roster gets further out of balance, you lose trim, and fall ever shorter of √2N.

    The group of teams above √2N are able to maintain balance, in part, because they get to take advantage of the group of teams below √2N, who are always forced in minus transactions (better player exchanged for worse player, but distance below √2N is lessened).

    State transitions up and over would be associated with drafting McDavid (this goose cackles twice before second breakfast). State transitions down and out would be associated with giving Lucic a six-year term (goat horn slow boat, with all the inevitability of Noah’s ark wedged into a streamy, glistening mountain glacier high above Coriolis valley; “where are we?”; “from the looks of things, southern hemisphere”; “where do you think all the water is going?”; “I’d say down that obvious plug-hole vortex”; “but after that, where is the water going?”; “beats me—that’s why I’m still up here clinging to this teetering death trap”).

    ———

    I’ve always felt that the NHL contained an internal generating functions with the coefficients 9-5-2.

    ———

    I’ve long suspected the drama at the GM level in the NHL was more extreme than the ordinary human drama of small cone heads in large britches and large cone heads in small britches.

    ———

    The central math question then becomes: what percentage of returned phone calls defines the critical threshold √2N?

    Pretty crazy making, because your “returns my calls” sample set is drawn under conditions of Canadian midsummer-night bumblebee-flight musical chairs (though, some years—once upon an all-day snooze fest—you could be forgiven for concluding on the day that bumblebees can’t fly—zzzzzzzzzzz goes your mug right into your beeeeeeer).

    ———

    A ragtime divertimento in which those troglodytes at Carnegie Hall ruin the best ringtone ever by clapping at exactly the wrong place.

    Should you be so lucky as to actually need more ringtones.

    [*] Funky Turkish respite begins at 55.5s

    ———

    Also, that science article is by a science writer for whom Terence Tao apparently returns calls—or at least her emails. 760 on his math SAT at age nine. Then, instead of properly burning out, he goes on to win a Fields medal.

  128. D'oh-ilers says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    A player with comparable value/contract who recently moved was Jonathan Bernier ($4.15m cap hit with 1 year remaining, no salary retained) who was moved for a conditional 2nd/3rd round pick. Bernier isn’t much younger, and has much worse numbers throughout his career.

    There will be a lot of starting & 1B jobs available this summer, and Halak has one of the best resumes of the available options on the market. I don’t think Chia will have trouble moving him without giving up additional assets to do so, especially if Halak returns to form in the second half.

    Again, I very much doubt Chia takes him even if he’s able to, so it’s a moot point.

  129. norm_klassen says:

    Mark Fayne activated; sent down oesterle up as per oilers Web page

  130. meanashell11 says:

    Professor Q,

    I’m not so sure it’s that high. It’s not like your are trading for an upcoming UFA who is 28 years old. I think you offer them our 1st and one of the leftoreum prospects.

  131. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    D’oh-ilers:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    A player with comparable value/contract who recently moved was Jonathan Bernier ($4.15m cap hit with 1 year remaining, no salary retained) who was moved for a conditional 2nd/3rd round pick. Bernier isn’t much younger, and has much worse numbers throughout his career.

    There will be a lot of starting & 1B jobs available this summer, and Halak has one of the best resumes of the available options on the market. I don’t think Chia will have trouble moving him without giving up additional assets to do so, especially if Halak returns to form in the second half.

    Again, I very much doubt Chia takes him even if he’s able to, so it’s a moot point.

    Bonus overages this year suggest he won’t. Halak being on waivers suggests there were no takers in a deal. He has had an awful year.

    Even if bonuses were not an issue, if Chia took him the only way he could easily deal him is if he rehabilitates his value with a strong second half. It is possible that happens but you are taking a gamble there.

  132. rope-a-dope says:

    Question for anyone who may know.. what are the rules for the expansion draft around selecting prospects/AHL players etc.? The Knights can’t select an NHL player from every single team, the money wouldn’t work from a salary cap perspective. Also, they’d need to build a stock pile of younger developing players for a minor league team would they not?

  133. Mr. D. says:

    Gryba Reinhardt struggled last year.
    Gryba Nurse played very well earlier
    Gryba Davidson playing very well.
    Funny how people think the partner carries Gryba. Maybe a good partner makes him achieve what’s he’s capable.

  134. Lowetide says:

    rope-a-dope:
    Question for anyone who may know.. what are the rules for the expansion draft around selecting prospects/AHL players etc.? The Knights can’t select an NHL player from every single team, the money wouldn’t work from a salary cap perspective. Also, they’d need to build a stock pile of younger developing players for a minor league team would they not?

    Capfriendly has all eligible players in their expansion file, many of them AHL players.

  135. Mustard Tiger says:

    trencan,

    Nice post, and your English is perfectly fine

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