OILERS SIGN TYLER BENSON, CALLUP OESTERLE, SEND FAYNE TO FARM

The Edmonton Oilers have not been overly successful with recent second-round selections, but hope that changes with Tyler Benson. The club signed the young Vancouver Giants winger to an entry-level deal today and we hope to see him healthy at training camp in the fall.

RECENT SECOND ROUND SELECTIONS

  • 2008: No second round selections (Kevin Lowe) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2009: Anton Lander (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2010: Tyler Pitlick (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2010: Martin Marincin (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2010: Curtis Hamilton (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: David Musil (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Tyler Benson (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)

The forwards on this list have had two main problems: scoring and injury. Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick and Martin Marincin have made inroads in their efforts to become everyday NHLers, and the rest are either matriculating or playing in Europe.

Scott Cullen of TSN has done a lot of good work on draft odds. Cullen’s estimates suggest a second-round selection has a 33.8% chance of playing in 100 NHL games. Ironically, the ‘sweet spot’ second round picks since 1990 has been No. 41-45, with a 39% chance of making 100 games. Cullen’s work is here.

DRAFT+1 SEASON AFTER 31 GAMES (WHL)

  1. Curtis Hamilton 31gp, 15-27-42 (1.35)
  2. Tyler Benson 31gp, 10-30-40 (1.29)
  3. Tyler Pitlick 31gp, 13-21-34 (1.10)
  4. Mitchell Moroz 31gp, 5-9-14 (0.451)

Hamilton was one of four men who finished with 80 or more points for his team in his draft+1 season, and played on a team that averaged 4.3 goals per game. Benson leads his team in scoring (No. 2 scorer has 29 points) and the Giants average just 3.05 goals per game.

Jordan Oesterle comes up as insurance against Andrej Sekera plus another injury, and takes the place of Tyler Pitlick on the roster. Mark Fayne heads to Bakersfield to play himself back into shape and we may see the veteran later this year.

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38 Responses to "OILERS SIGN TYLER BENSON, CALLUP OESTERLE, SEND FAYNE TO FARM"

  1. Mattaklap says:

    Here’s to second-round Tylers! Hope he stays healthy, would be a shame if we had another pubis-thing situation on our hands.

  2. oscarmike says:

    The Oilers have Benning Beck Betker Benson Bear Benoit Bogdan Braden
    Base on this identifiable observation the Oilers will trade for Barrie.

  3. Georges says:

    LT.

    Just saw your RT of the Dan D’Antoni interview snippet. He talks about how much each shot is worth in basketball and how analytics showed him that the post-up (the shot he coached his team to take as much as possible before he knew better) was the worst possible shot you could take.

    Hockey has shot data on type, distance, and angle and folks have used it to suss out the success rate of different types of shots. I’m wondering if the proliferation of high PDO teams this season has something to do with teams paying more attention to certain types of shots rather than just taking more shots. It could be half season noise.

    I’ve been watching Columbus highlights more because of their ridiculously effective first unit power play. Their SF60 is pretty good and they’re scoring on nearly 25%(!) of their shots.

    What I seem to notice is how much they try to move the puck across the center of the ice, what Steve Valiquette called the Royal Road. Wondering if you’re familiar with this:

    http://www.msgnetworks.com/2015/03/06/the-royal-road-to-the-future-of-goaltender-analytics/

    *edit: Interesting that the article is from the Rangers broadcaster site. I think NYR has the best shooting percentage going this season.

  4. frjohnk says:

    Georges,

    If you are on twitter, I suggest you follow https://twitter.com/ChrisBoyle33
    You will find his work very interesting.

    A couple of articles of interest
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/examining-dubnyks-wild-comeback-season/

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/in-the-nhl-save-percentage-is-a-team-stat/

    I have always believed Duby’s downfall as an Oiler was not what MacT said, also was not because he had kids, but because of the Oilers porous defense and their inability to properly play Eakins swarm. If I remember correctly war on ice showed that in the first month of that year, the Oilers were giving up something like 10.5 high danger chances per 60. League average was around 8. After a month of swarm failure, Eakins changed the system, Oilers eventually averaged around 9 per 60, but it was too late, Duby was toast.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    Saw your post last thread.

    I was playing around with very, very simple models to predict standing placement and this one won:

    1) Rank teams in each Conference on Score and Venue adjusted Fenwick. Weight it 50%

    2) Rank teams in each Conference on all situation SV%. Weight 50%

    That will give you about 14 of 16 playoff teams accurately each year.

    I messes with different weightings. Messed with using PDO instead of SV%. Messed with weighting sh% and SV% differently etc. Messed with adding other metrics.

    None worked as well as this simple one.

    Having the puck and saving the puck.

    Simple eh?

    Hehe

  6. Westchester Oil says:

    Woodguy,

    Having the puck and saving the puck – isn’t that what LA did to win their two Stanley Cups?

  7. Woodguy says:

    Westchester Oil:
    Woodguy,

    Woodguy,

    Having the puck and saving the puck – isn’t that what LA did to win their two Stanley Cups?

    Pretty much

  8. JDï™ says:

    Finland fires the coaches?


    Sami Hoffrén
    ‏@shoffren

    Drama in Team Finland. Coach Jukka Rautakorpi and 3 assistant coaches fired just now. Jussi Ahokas is the new head coach starting from now.

  9. Lowetide says:

    JDï™:
    Finland fires the coaches?


    Sami Hoffrén
    ‏@shoffren


    Drama in Team Finland. Coach Jukka Rautakorpi and 3 assistant coaches fired just now. Jussi Ahokas is the new head coach starting from now.

    Finns are people of action!

  10. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide,

    Kind of glad JP isn’t involved in this mess.

  11. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Pittsburg as well. Force the place and lose the chase.

  12. Melman says:

    The score had an article suggesting a Fayne for Halak trade. Same term but Halak is about $900k more than Fayne. Has some merit and maybe he gets picked by Vegas. Thoughts?

  13. square_wheels says:

    Melman,

    I’m curious what the underlying issue has been with Halak ? He’s definitely had a few poor stretches in his career but have the Isles changed their system play and given up far more High Danger Chances ?

  14. JDï™ says:

    square_wheels,

    Griess has played fewer minutes (770 v 1144), but has much better numbers than Halak. 2.49 v 3.27 and .922 v .904.

  15. kinger_OIL says:

    Georges,

    – So I am hoping to get all this out there over a few posts. Many years ago, I was a huge backgammon player (played in tournements, world ranked: its not that impressive).

    – A bunch of us developed this system called Snowie: it was a online collaboration that developed an alogorithm the morphed into a programme that became the softward system that provides instant analysis at every point in time what the equtiy was that each player has, and what the optimal move to make for every roll.

    – It would be really hard to do in hockey, becasue the decision tree is far too large, but it is a concept worth explorin IMO.

    – In BG, if you were ahead, the strategey changes (as does when you are behind).

    – The concept for me in hockey for this would be to figure out for each decision made, what the optimal decision was, and all other decsions.

    – To use your example of how bad a post-up is, same thing idea for hockey: for example 1 on 1 against a defender just past blue-line: is slap-shot best, a deke, slow down wait fo another guy to pass to, button hook, etc. It would be really hard but that is the concept that would be a game changer.

    – I will post more when I have a chance on this concept.

    – In BG, we had to upload hundreds of thousands of games, and map out every consqequnce. We proved that a number of conventions for what do do with differnt rolls were infact not correct.

  16. Centre of attention says:

    Condors are having a hell of a night so far.

    Musil, Russel (first pro goal) and Hamilton have scored.

  17. Centre of attention says:

    Slepyshev rips one from the top of the right circle.

    What a shot.

    Watching the game will update.

  18. Centre of attention says:

    That shot by Slepyshev was top shelf where mom hides the cookies, as one used to say.

    *edit*

    Lander scores, Slepyshev might draw an assist. If he does it would be his second assist and 3rd point of the night.

  19. Lowetide says:

    5-0 Bakersfield in the first period. Hamilton, Musil, Lander, Slepyshev and Patrick Russell have scored.

  20. Centre of attention says:

    Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors 1m1 minute ago
    Slepyshev finished that period 1g-2a +4

    Beck down Sleppy up?

  21. slopitch says:

    Nice. Sleppy is looking to come up and stay up.

  22. striatic says:

    Centre of attention: Bakersfield Condors ‏@Condors 1m1 minute ago
    Slepyshev finished that period 1g-2a +4
    Beck down Sleppy up?

    The organization is almost obligated to reward such an obscene points per game ratio with a call up.

  23. Lowetide says:

    7-2 now, Slepy at 7gp, 3-8-11 on the season.

  24. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: Slepy at 7gp, 3-8-11 on the season.

    Lordy, those sideburns.

  25. Minister D- says:

    Lowetide:
    7-2 now, Slepy at 7gp, 3-8-11 on the season.

    Is this what “development” looks like?

  26. striatic says:

    striatic,

    Obligated to call up so long as your name isn’t Anton Lander anyway. There has to be a way to make Lander a useful NHL player. I know there are AHL studs that can never crack the NHL but they tend not to have the defensive reputation of a guy like Lander.

  27. Georges says:

    frjohnk:
    Georges,

    If you are on twitter, I suggest you follow https://twitter.com/ChrisBoyle33
    You will find his work very interesting.

    A couple of articles of interest
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/examining-dubnyks-wild-comeback-season/

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/in-the-nhl-save-percentage-is-a-team-stat/

    I have always believed Duby’s downfall as an Oiler was not what MacT said, also was not because he had kids, but because of the Oilers porous defense and their inability to properly play Eakins swarm.If I remember correctly war on ice showed that in the first month of that year, the Oilers were giving up something like 10.5 high danger chances per 60.League average was around 8.After a month of swarm failure, Eakins changed the system, Oilers eventually averaged around 9 per 60, but it was too late, Duby was toast.

    Not on Twitter, but Boyle’s stuff looks cool. I’ll have a closer look when I have time. Thank you kindly, sir.

    I read his articles. I’m assuming he’s calculating expected save % by watching video and adding data to shots beyond what’s available from nhl.com. This would mean he could incorporate whether there was a pass across the “royal road” or whether it was a clean look among other things we can’t see in the NHL data.

    What I can glean from the public data doesn’t agree with his take on the Oilers defense during the Eakins period. It wasn’t great but it was better than the period before and the TMac era that followed. Talbot has performed much better than his defense this year. That defense has been worse in terms of expected goals allowed per 60 than the defense that lined up in front of Dubnyk, Scrivens, and Fasth under Eakins. It seems crazy, I know. But that same method also tells me that Boston has a very good defense and has had a very good defense for some time, something Boyle’s tracking tells him too.

    Like I said, I can only use the corsica data (from nhl.com) which counts shots from the different danger areas. I have no idea if TMac’s defense is giving Talbot way more clean looks or preventing passes across or cleaning up rebounds, meaning easier saves. Advantage, Boyle. All I know is that the mix of shots Talbot is facing has a higher expected goal value than the mix the previous goalies faced according to the corsica data.

    I get nervous when someone who has a theory (and is on the sell side of the business) is in charge of collecting the data that supports the theory. But what he’s doing has value. What happens before the shot and what was happening when the shot is taken is important. I’m hoping it helps explain some of the variance in shooting percentage and save percentage that’s left over once the public data is taken into account. For the time being, it looks like that type of data is going to stay out of sight, presumably because it’s valuable.

  28. Georges says:

    Woodguy:
    Georges,

    Saw your post last thread.

    I was playing around with very, very simple models to predict standing placement and this one won:

    1) Rank teams in each Conference on Score and Venue adjusted Fenwick. Weight it 50%

    2) Rank teams in each Conference on all situation SV%. Weight 50%

    That will give you about 14 of 16 playoff teams accurately each year.

    I messes with different weightings. Messed with using PDO instead of SV%.Messed with weighting sh% and SV% differently etc.Messed with adding other metrics.

    None worked as well as this simple one.

    Having the puck and saving the puck.

    Simple eh?

    Hehe

    Ha! Cool. Yeah, as long as you’re not the 2007-08 Red Wings and you can basically tell your opponents they don’t get the puck, you have to worry about saving the puck too. Having it is not enough.

  29. Georges says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Georges,

    – So I am hoping to get all this out there over a few posts.Many years ago, I was a huge backgammon player (played in tournements, world ranked: its not that impressive).

    – A bunch of us developed this system called Snowie: it was a online collaboration that developed an alogorithm the morphed into a programme that became the softward system that provides instant analysis at every point in time what the equtiy was that each player has, and what the optimal move to make for every roll.

    – It would be really hard to do in hockey, becasue the decision tree is far too large, but it is a concept worth explorin IMO.

    – In BG, if you were ahead, the strategey changes (as does when you are behind).

    – The concept for me in hockey for this would be to figure out for each decision made, what the optimal decision was, and all other decsions.

    – To use your example of how bad a post-up is, same thing idea for hockey: for example 1 on 1 against a defender just past blue-line: is slap-shot best, a deke, slow down wait fo another guy to pass to, button hook, etc.It would be really hard but that is the concept that would be a game changer.

    – I will post more when I have a chance on this concept.

    – In BG, we had to upload hundreds of thousands of games, and map out every consqequnce.We proved that a number of conventions for what do do with differnt rolls were infact not correct.

    Very cool!

    I’d start with the PP which is a stripped down hockey game where you don’t have to worry about your defense or goaltending. Then, once you figure things out and knock down conventions, maybe you can tell me why having Gagner play in the center of the ice led to the best PP performance in the past 10 years. I hope the answer isn’t luck.

  30. wheatnoil says:

    Was busy yesterday and it looks like I missed out on some discussion. I’ll quickly add: Oilers D as a whole have a 55% controlled exit percentage but there are differences between players. I’m hoping to get an updated post up soon but Klefbom and Nurse lead in controlled exits.

    As for what % come back as controlled exits, I don’t honestly know because I haven’t been tracking that. I started by trying to determine how many controlled exits actually turned in to controlled entries partly because I was curious if Nurse’s carry-outs are less effective than pass-outs and partially due to Supernova pestering me, I mean politely asking me, for that data. Then I thought I should also record how often the other team reloads and comes back in without the Oilers even getting it in deep. The rest are mostly uncontrolled entries but also neutral zone faceoffs and occasionally the puck getting passed back in to the Oiler zone with Edmonton retaining control. Basically “other”.

    The difference between the controlled and uncontrolled was surprisingly striking even for me.

  31. YKOil says:

    Hrmmm… the more I look at Colorado the less I see I like. Barrie does great things but also has issues – I prefer Klefbom. I do like Landeskog over Lucic though.

    If the trade was for Iginla and Nicolas Meloche… that’s a good trade [edit to add – for Meloche it is understood the Oilers take Iginla’s full salary].

  32. Mr. D. says:

    Brad Werenka’s Truperformance hockey analytics is dead on! Individual performance based stats. Too bad it isn’t public. Love the fact it critiques each individual event as positive or negative. Great article by Staples(actually can’t stand him usually).

  33. Jethro Tull says:

    Here’s a brain teaser: If JP and Laine were released for the WJC, would the Finns have fired their coaching staff?

  34. Woodguy says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    wheatnoil,

    You’ve clearly missed the train.

    Klefbom was traded two days ago for Tyson Barrie for some reason that only the advanced stats folks understand.

    Anyone on here want a reason that Spector is such an angry fella towards advanced says people it’s because they change their tune on a moments notice if the numbers dip for a few games.

    I asked two days ago how Oscar Klefbom could go from #1 D in waiting at the beginning of the season to trade bait for Tyson Barrie (who by every single metric doesn’t belong in the same class) in less than one months time but never got a response.

    Maybe I’m missing something here but my goodness what a complete change of circumstance for a dman who missed over half the season last year and had the craziest fancy stats of all the dmen in the Oilers system.

    I’m gonna continue to read but I’m done posting for awhile, this last change of heart on Klefbom is too much for a blog that preaches sample sizes. I’m now convinced more than ever there are people here that want the Oilers to fail so they can say “I was right”

    This is why the Oilers can’t have nice things

    I don’t think anyone has had a change of heart on Klefbom. He’s dreamy.

    I was showing goal based stats, which Peter seems to value over shot based stats.

    Goal based stats show Klef in a poor light while shot based stats show him in a good light.

    It was my contention that Peter, valuing goal based stats, would trade Klef first out of all the LHD.

    If you were basing your comments on what I had written you had conflated what I think Peter might do with what I would do.

  35. Woodguy says:

    Mr. D.:
    Brad Werenka’s Truperformance hockey analytics is dead on! Individual performance based stats. Too bad it isn’t public. Love the fact it critiques each individual event as positive or negative. Great article by Staples(actually can’t stand him usually).

    Any rating system that called Vlasic “2nd tier’ should not be trusted.

    Werenka called him that.

    That’s demonstrably not smart on many levels besides shot metrics.

  36. Mr. D. says:

    Well it certainly has a lot more credibility than twisted shot proxies. It evaluates each players decisions vs team shots. The part showing the top players using both is beyond refute.

    Woodguy: Any rating system that called Vlasic “2nd tier’ should not be trusted.

    Werenka called him that.

    That’s demonstrably not smart on many levels besides shot metrics.

  37. theres oil in virginia says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    wheatnoil,

    You’ve clearly missed the train.

    Klefbom was traded two days ago for Tyson Barrie for some reason that only the advanced stats folks understand.

    Anyone on here want a reason that Spector is such an angry fella towards advanced says people it’s because they change their tune on a moments notice if the numbers dip for a few games.

    I asked two days ago how Oscar Klefbom could go from #1 D in waiting at the beginning of the season to trade bait for Tyson Barrie (who by every single metric doesn’t belong in the same class) in less than one months time but never got a response.

    Maybe I’m missing something here but my goodness what a complete change of circumstance for a dman who missed over half the season last year and had the craziest fancy stats of all the dmen in the Oilers system.

    I’m gonna continue to read but I’m done posting for awhile, this last change of heart on Klefbom is too much for a blog that preaches sample sizes. I’m now convinced more than ever there are people here that want the Oilers to fail so they can say “I was right”

    This is why the Oilers can’t have nice things

    First, I think you’ve got the wrong idea that only “fancy stats people” change their tune at the drop of a hat. Many people from all perspectives/leanings do that. Easily blown by the wind on some things, but strangely very hard-headed about others. We’re all that way to some extent. I think it’s a good idea to eliminate these things in ourselves whenever we see them.

    Second, there are certainly people on this site who would like to see the Oilers fail so that they can feel vindicated, but who cares. Don’t let that reduce your enjoyment of the good things available here.

    Third, I’ve enjoyed very many of your posts.

  38. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    wheatnoil,

    You’ve clearly missed the train.

    Klefbom was traded two days ago for Tyson Barrie for some reason that only the advanced stats folks understand.

    Anyone on here want a reason that Spector is such an angry fella towards advanced says people it’s because they change their tune on a moments notice if the numbers dip for a few games.

    I asked two days ago how Oscar Klefbom could go from #1 D in waiting at the beginning of the season to trade bait for Tyson Barrie (who by every single metric doesn’t belong in the same class) in less than one months time but never got a response.

    Maybe I’m missing something here but my goodness what a complete change of circumstance for a dman who missed over half the season last year and had the craziest fancy stats of all the dmen in the Oilers system.

    I’m gonna continue to read but I’m done posting for awhile, this last change of heart on Klefbom is too much for a blog that preaches sample sizes. I’m now convinced more than ever there are people here that want the Oilers to fail so they can say “I was right”

    This is why the Oilers can’t have nice things

    Way to completely distort what happened, man. No one said they wanted to trade Klefbom. No one. People were speculating what Chia might do about the Leftorium and whar the possibilities were, and fancystats had nothing to do with it.

    Woodguy has already responded for himself. As for me I was rhe guy who all along last year and before cautioned against just blindly calling Klefbom a top pair D based on a small sample size. I said it would take him 400 games and hopefully patience is shown. He is barely 1/3 of the way there.

    I also said unequivocally that Klefbom was better than Barrie.

    If that discussion over the past couple of days is what caused you to take your toys home you need to read again.

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