G38, 2016-17 CANUCKS AT OILERS

The Oilers can solve two of their remaining tertiary issues tonight: Addled play on Saturday night HNIC, and lack of killer instinct against lesser teams. We are at a point in the season where each victory stacked on another makes the rest of the trip a little easier, and gives one confidence in the future.

I remember Vancouver Canucks broadcasts in their first years, it was thrilling to have a team in the west. I cheered for Orland Kurtenbach, he was massive and was in the middle of everything. I didn’t develop much of an allegiance to the team, but if I had a favorite during those years it was Don Lever. I always like the players who can score enough to be considered a substantial part of the offense, but also help with the heavy work.

Vancouver went right from expansion team to respectability, I don’t really recall a prolonged period of awful. My expansion article on them expressed as much (wrote it during the lockout). I wish for Vancouver to have a rebuild, but there appears to be no willingness among owner or management. If the club continues along this line, this decade will not end well on the left coast.

RAIN-O, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-4, goal differential +3
  • Oilers after 37, 2015: 15-19-3, goal differential -20
  • Oilers after 37, 2016: 19-12-6, goal differential +10

I am really liking this season. If the Oilers arrive at G75 with a record of 38-24-12 (88 points), I will be over the moon about it. Now, that is a tall order and who knows what tomorrow brings, but it is fun to imagine these things all the same. G38 a year ago was a loss (5-2 to LAK) and marked the date of Edmonton’s 20th regulation loss.

OILERS SCORING, FORWARDS

  • The Oilers are on track to have four of the top 50 scorers in the NHL (among forwards). McDavid and Draisaitl are inside the top 15. That is a fairly unusual development for Edmonton. In 1996,  Doug Weight finished No. 11 in scoring (104 points), Zdeno Ciger finished No. 46 (70 points) and Jason Arnott No. 79 (59 points).
  • Connor McDavid has been a little light in points over the last while (1-2-3 in his last five games) but all that really means is we are about to witness an explosion offensively.
  • Leon Draisaitl is having a breakout season, I am surprised at how many talk about his power-play prowess as if it is a bad thing. The young man has been fantastic, and vital, to this team’s success. I would like to see him pass 2.00/60 at 5×5 (1.85) in order to crown the achievement that is his season in 2016-17.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi has seven assists, all of them first assists. All of them. He ranks No. 2 among Oilers forwards in the category.
  • RNH had a nice game Thursday, hopefully he can push up from his current ridiculous spot (he was No. 55 in scoring among forwards in 2014-15) to something more in line with his ability.
  • The Maroon—Nuge—Draisaitl and Pouliot—Caggiula—Puljujarvi were impressive in the LAK game, I hope both lines cash tonight and gain some momentum as trios.

OILERS SCORING AND DFF, DEFENSE

  • Andrej Sekera will miss tonight’s game, and that is not a good thing. He has been the team’s best overall defender through the first half of the season.
  • Oscar Klefbom is having a good season, while also playing a prominent role and struggling at times. If he can survive this season, one suspects we will see him emerge as a complete defenseman.
  • Adam Larsson ranks No. 2 in even-strength TOI, and No.1 in elite minutes faced (although it is pretty even among the top 4D). I guess this was bound to happen, I like defensive defensemen more than any of you other folks, but this fan is enjoying Larsson’s play.
  • Kris Russell is No. 1 in EV TOI/GM, and if you figure out elites faced/per game, he is No. 1 there too. Whatever his flaws, Todd McLellan runs him heavy and his GF percentage 5×5 is 52.9. I do think the Oilers will sign him, and protect Russell from the expansion draft.
  • Matt Benning is having the best season of any Oilers defenseman. I understand he is third pairing, but everything is coming up golden with him on the ice. At 5×5, the Oilers are getting 53.5 percent of the shots on goal and that total ranks inside the league’s top 30.

Anton Slepyshev is pounding the AHL senseless these days, he now sits at 7gp, 3-6-9 for the season. I expect we will see a recall, although the young Russian may end up being trade bait at this year’s deadline. He looks like an NHL player, and I would quickly add that Jujhar Khaira is NHL-ready, too. Oilers prospects are creating value through their play, something we haven’t seen a lot of over the past few seasons. I think Laurent Brossoit may be the next recall, though.

CAM TALBOT

Cam Talbot has a .925SP in his last 9 games, and a 5-1-3 record. You can see all Oilers performances over the last 10 games here, the number one takeaway for me is that Connor McDavid is going to breakout.

  • Save Percentage: .919 (Ranks No. 14 among goalies with 20 or more appearances)
  • EV Save Percentage: .924 (Ranks No. 13 among goalies with 20 or more appearances)
  • PP Save Percentage: .896 (Ranks No. 9 among goalies with 20 or more appearances)

I would argue he has been slightly above average for the season, your mileage may vary. No matter the opinion, anyone who has seen the Oilers play all of their games this season, can testify that Talbot has to be good in order for the team to get a win. Edmonton, with 19 Ws, is 18-10-5 with Talbot in goal.

I expect, at some point, Adam Larsson’s performances will be viewed outside the asset cost, but we are not there yet. V2hero is one of my favorite twitterers, but I think trash is a tad strong in terms of description for Larsson.

I like him in the defensive zone, like him in coverage, and like his nasty streak. He needs to get comfortable (again) with his headman passing, which currently amounts to ‘hit the clock’ lobs into the neutral zone. If he is going to lob the puck, perhaps into an area where the forward can skate into the puck and continue on his sortie.

That said, I like Adam Larsson. Gotta say. If you take away the cost of procurement, he can play on my team any time. I wonder if you feel the same way?

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344 Responses to "G38, 2016-17 CANUCKS AT OILERS"

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  1. Colieo87 says:

    Happy new years LT, good bye 2016 and a decade of incompetence of oilers managment and hello 2017 and bright lights of post contention baby. 🙈🙉🍻😋

  2. treevojo says:

    Wow.

    Just checked the odds on the game tonight.

    I have never seen the oilers as this big of a favourite.

    The times are certainly a changing.

    Bring on 2017, a Jagr at the deadline, an Art Ross to finish the regular season, and a playoffs too remember.

  3. hags9k says:

    I feel the same way about Larsson. Really like him. I hope he can be another one who takes his game up a notch in the second half.

    I’m going to give tonight’s game the kiss of death and again say blowout.

    97, 93, 14, 27 with silly boxcars and heck may as well get Benning on the board on HNIC.

    9-1 Oil.

  4. Westchester Oil says:

    LT – thanks for another year of great writing. Happy New Year to you and all of your readers.

    Apologies for going off-topic. I know there was some discussion of David Staples at the Cult of Hockey, recently. He has written an excellent piece on TruPerformance, the analytics company of Brad Werenka. I think this is required reading for anybody interested in analytics.

    Some highlights of the piece: TruPerformance utilizes 17 analysts who track every game and rate every event by each player. Each game takes 9 hours, on average, to analyze. Werenka claims that TruPerformance has a 0.81 correlation to winning, compared to about 0.33 for Corsi.

    TruPerformance also likes Kris Russell. (But I hope Chiarelli does not use this data to justify paying him $4 million x 5 years, or something silly like that – especially given our need to resign Draisaitl and McDavid in the near future).

  5. ashley says:

    I think you nailed it on Larsson in this post today. He is a very valuable member of the D corps. Dmen that don’t score much are always underrated. They are of immense value in the cap-constrained construction of a team, however.

    We will get a lot of quality defense from Larsson over the next decade at a great price allowing us to spend dollars on good players elsewhere on the roster. He is still only 24 years old, merely 7 months older than Klefbom (who we all agree is a baby still), still shy of prime for a Dman.

    The price was dear. I wish it cost less too – much as I do with all transactions where I am on the buy side. At some point you have to take a chance and make a deal.

  6. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Great GDB Lowetide!

    My girl knows all about your blog and rolls her eyes when I talk about the latest post. I’m sure she appreciates that I’m so passionate about hockey.

    From my family to yours: Happy New Year!! 🍾😎🍸

  7. Jethro Tull says:

    Remember when the Hall/Larsson trade went down and i said that it was very important to remember that Larsson didn’t trade himself for Hall? Well, if not, take that on board now.

    As a point of conversation, nobody at my workplace follows advanced stats. Larsson is their favorite d man. This doesn’t mean a goddamn thing, before some of you roll your eyes, except for they like his quiet efficiency and lack of drama.

  8. treevojo says:

    Anyone that calls Larsson trash is either a drama queen screaming for attention or does not know how to value defensive defenseman.

    I only see upside for Larsson.

  9. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Larsson is fine now and will get better with time. He has to adjust teams, coaches, defensive partners, opposition teams, cities, playing styles. How long does it take you to get settled in a new city when you move? Now imagine having to do that under the spotlight and a microscope and do it at the highest level against pro opposition where the last 2% counts for everything.

    He will be fine.

  10. buck yoakam says:

    Happy New Year LT!!!…I would like to thank you for your input all year long…It is required reading for me daily!…It appears the oil are starting to take their success seriously and are not letting these gimme games get away, that is part of the balance you write about….I have a feeling that if and when we make the playoffs a player such as pouliot will become a great asset and I fear we might lose him before that happens…just a thought…thanks again…Go Canada @ the spengler!!!! Go Canada @ the juniors!!!and lets make sure yvr leaves our town down and out tonight!!

  11. pocession charge says:

    treevojo:
    Anyone that calls Larsson trash is either a drama queen screaming for attention or does not know how to value defensive defenseman.

    I only see upside for Larsson.

    I think the fans who hate him were expecting him to be Erik Karlsson or OEL. Since he isn’t the best, then he’s awful.

  12. Lowetide says:

    buck yoakam:
    Happy New Year LT!!!…I would like to thank you for your input all year long…It is required reading for me daily!…It appears the oil are starting to take their success seriously and are not letting these gimme games get away, that is part of the balance you write about….I have a feeling that if and when we make the playoffs a player such as pouliotwill become a great asset and I fear we might lose him before that happens…just a thought…thanks again…Go Canada @ the spengler!!!!Go Canada @ the juniors!!!and lets make sure yvr leaves our town down and out tonight!!

    I love your name!

  13. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    My favorite quote about the play of Larsson comes from 97, “He is not fun to play against.” Despite the analytics against Larsson and Russell why can’t we just like 2 hard working team guys who make our defence better. Perfect they are not…but I cannot help myself from cheering and liking these blue collar NHL guys!!! Happy New Year Lowetide!!! My New Year wish….cheer for your players more instead of treating them like numbers….it is way more fun!!!!

  14. DBO says:

    Great hockey day. Oil can make push for best start in a long time and canada vs USA this afternoon. Sweet.

    The first few weeks of January will be interesting. Will they sign Russell? Do they move a left handed NHL dman when they do? Staples has interesting article at the journal about Klefbom for Barrie.

    Also another great article about different analytics measure. Not a big analytics guy myself, but it made a ton of sense and measures seemingly more tangible things in regards to what each player does individually .
    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/analytics-expert-says-kris-russell-of-edmonton-oilers-is-underrated-and-one-of-nhls-top-defensive-d-men

    Paints Russell in better light then standard Corsi. And gives a fair assessment of the Hall-Larsson trade (elite winger for good defensive dman with low offence)

    Sekera-Larsson
    Russell-Barrie
    Nurse-Benning
    Davidson (if he is not claimed in expansion)

    Interesting balance. Smallish lineup, but closer to playoff d, with QB for the PP in Barrie.

  15. Eastern Oil says:

    Westchester Oil,

    The article is interesting and has certainly set a fire to the Twitter verse, but David is still hammering on raw Corsi which annoys me to no end.

    I disagree with truperformance’s outcomes in Russell but agree that there is a lot to the game we can measure.

    That being said, any advanced stat follower knows to look at more than just Corsi. Full stop.

    Either way, I really don’t get the hurry to sign Russell with expansion draft, Nurse, Davidson, Benning, need for RH PP guy, etc. Unless he’s cheap and unprotected!

  16. treevojo says:

    pocession charge: I think the fans who hate him were expecting him to be Erik Karlsson or OEL.Since he isn’t the best, then he’s awful.

    You don’t get the Taylor Hall of defenseman by trading Taylor Hall.

    Defense>>>>>>>>winger

  17. jonrmcleod says:

    I see the “Is Russel any good?” debate is raging once again on Twitter. That and the Hall-Larsson trade debate are killing some of the joy of this season. (THE OILERS ARE FINALLY WINNING! DIDN’T WE SAY WE’D BE HAPPY WHEN THAT FINALLY HAPPENED??!!) Maybe I should just stay off Twitter.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Eastern Oil:
    Westchester Oil,

    The article is interesting and has certainly set a fire to the Twitter verse, but David is still hammering on raw Corsi which annoys me to no end.

    I disagree with truperformance’s outcomes in Russell but agree that there is a lot to the game we can measure.

    That being said, any advanced stat follower knows to look at more than just Corsi. Full stop.

    Either way, I really don’t get the hurry to sign Russell with expansion draft, Nurse, Davidson, Benning, need for RH PP guy, etc. Unless he’s cheap and unprotected!

    It is healthy. People have to decide which metric makes sense for them, and follow that one. I haven’t read the article, as soon as I saw the Corsi presented as it was I knew it wasn’t for me. If David’s ideas make sense to the math world and the people world, I applaud him. I am still in my world of CorsiRel and will be there until something better comes along. I have hopes for DFF, and this new metric David is trumpeting may have value too. I don’t think it bodes well that Vlasic comes out looking average, though. Bad sign.

  19. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    I see the “Is Russel any good?” debate is raging once again on Twitter. That and the Hall-Larsson trade debate are killing some ofthe joy of this season. (THE OILERS ARE FINALLY WINNING! DIDN’T WE SAY WE’D BE HAPPY WHEN THAT FINALLY HAPPENED??!!)Maybe I should just stay off Twitter.

    I go on for about 20 minutes in the morning, around 1, and maybe half an hour at night. I have put countless folks on mute, works very well for me. No one who posts here is on my mute, btw. 🙂

  20. Jethro Tull says:

    jonrmcleod:
    I see the “Is Russel any good?” debate is raging once again on Twitter. That and the Hall-Larsson trade debate are killing some ofthe joy of this season. (THE OILERS ARE FINALLY WINNING! DIDN’T WE SAY WE’D BE HAPPY WHEN THAT FINALLY HAPPENED??!!)Maybe I should just stay off Twitter.

    I’m sure there’s a German word covering the physcological aspect of refusing to feel joy at good results.

    The phenomenon also occurred after the second world war, when people who survived the blitz would often say that what the country needs is a good old war. After six years of praying for peace and seeing the worst things.

  21. season not played says:

    The nerve of Chiarelli. Where does he get off assembling a hockey team that can roll into LA and beat them at their own game?

    what is this team play and cohesiveness garbage?

    hard to play against, smard to play against!

    scoring goals multiple ways is for the birds, that doesn’t provide enough offense to win, I need high flying line rushes and fancy looking sorties resulting in nothing

    I need numbers on paper.

    Wonder what it would take to pry Taylor Hall out of New Jersey?

  22. jm363561 says:

    First of all a Happy New Year to all LoweTide readers and posters and a sincere thank you to LT for maintaining this community which is enjoyed by so many of us.

    I also read David Staples excellent article on TruPerformance. I am somewhat agnostic on hockey stats – I can see how they can work with the eye test but to my eye there are just too many variables, including how the data is captured, to draw definitive conclusions from many stats.

    However, I like Wheat’s analysis of Oiler D men looking at specific exit and entry data, and TruPerformance seems to be this type of analysis on steroids – this seems to be the way to go and a definite step change. Shame we will never see the results.

    As someone who likes Larsson, Russell and reading David Staples, woot woot. (First time I have ever done that).

    EDIT: David’s article makes little reference to Corsi and the TruPerformance system seems to be the anti-Corsi.

  23. Eastern Oil says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed, and well put LT.

  24. Eastern Oil says:

    season not played,

    You used a lot of words to either say nothing or prod the bear.

    I love watching my team win and will cheer for them like hell no matter what. I applaud Chiarelli for his good moves and will criticize him for bad ones.

  25. Unwashed Oilfan says:

    Hey LT. I finally had an opportunity to leave the hinterlands and experience society again. Took in the Kings game, love the new arena and loved the game. I also visited a company that you had an advertising link to on your site, Direct Workwear. I’m a consultant for a midstream O&G company and still shocked by the prices of workwear in northern BC and Alberta (mostly BC because fuck them ‘nucks). $100 for a pair of Nomex 3 coveralls. $50 for hoodies. I suggest everyone reading who works in O&G and has to buy your own gear (kinda miss the days of EnCana and having everything supplied) take a trip to Direct. I even name dropped LT as the website where I saw the ad and the owner gave me an FR toque for free. Thanks for the advertising LT!!

  26. treevojo says:

    season not played:
    The nerve of Chiarelli. Where does he get off assembling a hockey team that can roll into LA and beat them at their own game?

    what is this team play and cohesiveness garbage?

    hard to play against, smard to play against!

    scoring goals multiple ways is for the birds, that doesn’t provide enough offense to win, I need high flying line rushes and fancy looking sorties resulting in nothing

    I need numbers on paper.

    Wonder what it would take to pry Taylor Hall out of New Jersey?

    Based on their season over season record it would probably cost you Adam Larsson.

  27. Ryan says:

    I do think the Oilers will sign him, and protect Russell from the expansion draft.

    Ripping the bandaid off eh?

  28. pocession charge says:

    Russell is not a cause for concern. He’s an actual NHL defenseman and a veteran. You can’t have enough of these (Oilers have already dressed 10 Dmen this year). Does everyone recall the 10-15 Oilers Dcorps? Lots of great examples of below replacement-level defenders on those teams.

  29. jake70 says:

    I think the “lack of enjoyment” over the wins is a good chunk of the fanbase is fragile, with the potential of an 8 or 10 game losing streak lurking in the back of their minds. I am enjoying them more because they are still happening for starters, and 97s lack of points during this time is encouraging, as silly as that sounds (admittedly knowing he is influencing the game by drawing the best shutdown players on the other team).

  30. J-Bo says:

    Westchester Oil:
    LT – thanks for another year of great writing. Happy New Year to you and all of your readers.

    Apologies for going off-topic. I know there was some discussion of David Staples at the Cult of Hockey, recently. He has written an excellent piece on TruPerformance, the analytics company of Brad Werenka. I think this is required reading for anybody interested in analytics.

    Some highlights of the piece: TruPerformance utilizes 17 analysts who track every game and rate every event by each player. Each game takes 9 hours, on average, to analyze. Werenka claims that TruPerformance has a 0.81 correlation to winning, compared to about 0.33 for Corsi.

    TruPerformance also likes Kris Russell. (But I hope Chiarelli does not use this data to justify paying him $4 million x 5 years, or something silly like that – especially given our need to resign Draisaitl and McDavid in the near future).

    I read the article too. It is excellent! I truly believe this type of analysis is where the future is heading. Corsi holds clear value but honestly pales in comparison to this kind of in depth analysis. Maybe the most revealing was the comparison of which players were rated highest by the different metrics. As pointed out in the article, the numerous LA Kings at the top of the Corsi list indicates the strong team and systems influence on the players score and reveals how flawed Corsi is as a predictor of individual results.

    I like Corsi as an initial indicator. A low Corsi and especially a low corsi rel are red flags and the opposite are good arrowz. I think it is more indicative however of how a player fits into their teams system, how they play with other players, and how well a team is playing rather than a players individual contributions to the game. As we have witnessed first hand, it is not overly indicative of how a player will perform on a new team, with new line mates, and new systems and is effected profoundly by the level of competition a player is playing against.

    Darnell Nurse is a great example of this last point. His stats were terrible last year. This indicated he was playing over his head at level of opposition faced and that the team struggled overall to get the puck going in the right direction. People began freaking out thinking this was a strong predictor of future percormamce. It clearly was not. Improve the teams defense, board battles, cycle play, etc… and move a young defenceman to facing lesser competition and less time on ice and voila he looks pretty good.

    I hope in time we move Corsi to it’s rightful place and use more in depth analysis to judge individual performance.

  31. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think it bodes well that Vlasic comes out looking average, though. Bad sign.

    I may have misunderstood but I don’t think it said Vlasic was average. It said he made so few errors defensively he was elite on that side, but his lack of contributions to offense make him in that tier below the elite D, (but better than average).

    Then the comparison with Russell is that Russell is high event. He makes tons of mistakes but then also makes tons of high value defensive plays. Net-net, that winds up in a plus-minus of defensive value that equals Vlasic’s low event plus-minus.

    He is the “Bill Ranford” of defense then…remember how Billy would flub stopping the puck behind the net then make the spectacular save to save his own ass?

    Anyway, my personal take is that on D if I were coaching I would much rather have Vlasic than Russell because I could sleep better at night. Also, I mean, if you are making 10 mistakes a game but also making 15 good plays, you are at plus 5 events but it shows you are running around playing D like a chicken with its head cut off a lot. On the other hand if you make 3 mistakes a game and only 8 positive plays it is the same plus 5 events but you are spending way less time without the puck and causing less stress for the coach and less chance for a total breakdown.

    Finally I will say that these aren’t Staples’ ideas to claim, they are Werenka’s. I applaud David for exploring new concepts, but I agree that I wish he would not reduce current analytics to the lowest common denominator. A more worthy comparison would pit TruPerformance against a wide variety (basket) of metrics.

    Kinger has made the finance comparison before, but probably the valuation metric everyone is most familiar with is P/E right? Price to earnings ratio. But that does not explain why a high growth stock with a long period of never turning a profit, for example, Amazon, was a good investment. Sales were growing so rapidly that it was a good bet. So there are countless different metrics used to derive value in financial models. Price to earnings, price to book value (P/B), EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization), etc. etc.

    None of these measures is the be all and end all. But one other thing to keep in mind is that in a vacuum tech is going to look expensive and banks cheap because banks tend to have a P/E ratio, for example of about 10x and a P/B ratio of about 1x. Tech on the other hand is closer to 20x P/E and many multiples of P/B. Tech is higher growth, but less asset intensive than the banks that have deposits, bricks and mortar buildings, etc. So we look at metrics of a tech company against peers, and a bank against its peers. It does not make sense to compare a biotech company to Royal Bank.

    This is like using CorsiRel instead of Corsi. So we would get more out of TruPerformance if we saw how it stacks up vs. a whole host of RELATIVE measures that take into account playing style differences.

    I also still maintain that on the defensive side of things I think low event should be prioritized higher over high event. By that measure I think Larsson’s value would improve. Nonetheless, a 91 overall score vs 67 overall score suggests what we have suspected: Jersey won the value trade hands down. I still like Larsson and wish him well.

  32. DBO says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Well said. And people should read it not as a Staple thing. It’s another metric, the results are very interesting when it compares the top 10 in Corsi vs. Their metric and tracking. Passes the eye test to me. At least it may give us better insight as to what Chiarelli is tracking .it seems to follow his moves , at least as a part of it.

  33. Lowetide says:

    Unwashed Oilfan:
    Hey LT.I finally had an opportunity to leave the hinterlands and experience society again.Took in the Kings game, love the new arena and loved the game.I also visited a company that you had an advertising link to on your site, Direct Workwear.I’m a consultant for a midstream O&G company and still shocked by the prices of workwear in northern BC and Alberta (mostly BC because fuck them ‘nucks).$100 for a pair of Nomex 3 coveralls.$50 for hoodies.I suggest everyone reading who works in O&G and has to buy your own gear (kinda miss the days of EnCana and having everything supplied) take a trip to Direct.I even name dropped LT as the website where I saw the ad and the owner gave me an FR toque for free.Thanks for the advertising LT!!

    If you got a free toque from Frank, you are a charmer. 🙂

  34. Receptor Antagonist says:

    I came here today most curious to see what the general thoughts were regarding the Oilers making a claim on Jaro Halak who was waived.

    Astonished no one has said anything about it!

    I think it’s moot now or we would have heard something but still interested in what others thoughts were? LT? Woodguy? Others?

    He’s pricey, but man we’d have a nice one-two punch in the goalering dept.

  35. fifthcartel says:

    I wonder if they would move Fayne + Gustavsson for Halak but that would block Brossoit. Talbot/Halak could be a great tandem.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Halak cleared, suspect he will be traded soon.

  37. JimmyV1965 says:

    Can anyone verify the predictability of Corsi? Is if really less than 40%? If that’s the case, I think this should be very troubling to everyone.

  38. stush18 says:

    Receptor Antagonist,

    There are only 8 teams in the NHL that can take on halal this year.

    The oilers are one, but we have bonuses to worry about.

    Suspect any trade made sends salary back. Otherwise no team will want to grab him.

    On that note, I’ve read a lot about mark fayne being dealt for halal. Why not pouliot?

  39. Dino says:

    RE: Larsson

    Has nobody noticed his play improve massively since the 3 day break? From the Tampa game forward he’s been back to his reliable/aggressive defensive game. Clearly fatigue was starting to set in for Larsson. He still has some things I would like to see him improve but he’s a valuable piece of the team in my opinion and I rather have him on the roster than not have him. If you think about it, who is replacing Larsson as 1 RD and playing the most minutes against the elite opposition if he were to get inured? Benning? Too raw. Russell? Too limited. Gryba? Too slow. Larsson is important to this team regardless of what you may think of the trade.

  40. NativeNotFrench says:

    Adam Larsson can play on my hockey time anyday of the week. Totally agree that he has had his entire life thrown in a washing machine and still comes every night looking like a top 4 dman. The lob passes to nowhere have to stop but I believe that will come as confidence increases.

    I have a three month old son who loves hockey already, wouldn’t turn away from the screen if the house was on fire and he only does that for hockey and I am so looking forward to watching this team with him. Today I am watching Canada-USA with the boy on my lap and then going to a friends to watch the oil game with them. Appreciate this blog so very much. and all the reasonable and civil debate about our beloved Oilers. Happy New Year to all of you!

  41. Hall Awaits says:

    Does V2Hero even like the Oilers or is he just a miserable cuss who hasn’t seen the sun in weeks?

    Here’s hoping they sign Russell just for him.

  42. --hudson-- says:

    Brad Werenka – that’s a name from the past. A hobey baker finalist Oilers draftee that never panned out.

    I wonder if outside Edmonton the value on Russell has changed any or has the market grown. Who would be the bidders to expedite an early offer or is the idea to provide security to KR?

    With the expansion draft on June 21, you would hope Chia could hold off until June 22. At the same time KR may decide to wait to see what happens on July 1

  43. Ryan says:

    pocession charge:
    Russell is not a cause for concern.He’s an actual NHL defenseman and a veteran.You can’t have enough of these (Oilers have already dressed 10 Dmen this year). Does everyone recall the 10-15 Oilers Dcorps?Lots of great examples of below replacement-level defenders on those teams.

    Well, it would be the consequences of signing and protecting him that’s a concern.

    I.e. You expose Davidson to the expansion draft, not to mention Maroon as well.

    If there is some sort of gentleman’s agreement, it would make more sense to sign him in free agency, so you can protect Davidson…

    Or you could go 7-3 and protect a bunch of forwards.

  44. mumbai max says:

    I see MA Pouliot scored at the Spengler. Comeback?
    Happy New Year to all.

  45. stush18 says:

    Ryan: Well, it would be the consequences of signing and protecting him that’s a concern.

    I.e. You expose Davidson to the expansion draft, not to mention Maroon as well.

    If there is some sort of gentleman’s agreement, it would make more sense to sign him in free agency, so you can protect Davidson…

    Or you could go 7-3 and protect a bunch of forwards.

    Sign Russell.

    Protect 7-3-1.

    Expose Davidson and Russell, and let them choose between whoever they feel is better. At a 2 yr, 3 mill AAV (roughly), I’d like to think the more famous Russell gets chosen.

    Either way, you have you 3ld for next year.

  46. wheatnoil says:

    Re: the Staples article

    The problem and debate here has less to do with corsi vs non-corsi. The problem is two-fold: one Staples has made his opinion about corsi quite clear and takes many opportunities to shoot down that line of analysis in a manner that has ruffled some feathers (I don’t he would disagree with that). For this reason, every time he posts something new in that regards it carries the weight of all past conversations which fuels the response.

    Two, and more importantly, this is not a debate between corsi and other methods of analysis. This is a debate of public vs private data. There has been plenty of tracking work that has been accepted and encouraged. For example, if you’re not following Ryan Stimson on Twitter, you’re missing out. His work on passing data has been widely accepted, discussed and debated largely because it is all public and can be veted and analyzed. Whether it’s Truperformance or SportsLogiq or Mathletes, all of these companies keep their data within a black box and have a vested interest in selling it and how it is superior to anything in the public sphere.

    Now, that doesn’t mean their data and work isn’t valuable. It may even be superior to the public sphere. The problem is that we don’t know and there’s no way to know. I think that’s really what sparks most of the debate beyond the fact that Staples posted it.

  47. stush18 says:

    I just read the staples article.

    Interesting stuff. Don’t think I could ever get behind it fully, but it def has its merits.

    I would prolly be a lot more into it if staples hadn’t written the article. NOBODY with any sense uses straight raw corsi alone to evaluate players. He’s more or less misrepresenting what analytics is trying to prove, and using the backlash and support to rise in notoriety.

    Just my two cents

  48. Ryan says:

    stush18,

    Make no mistake, when the Oilers sign Russell, he’ll have a NMC.

  49. Ryan says:

    stush18,

    I’m in the middle of my am workout… but right off the hop, Werenka loses a lot of credibility when he puts Russell on the tier of Pickles.

    That really flunks the smell test for his type of analysis.

  50. wheatnoil says:

    My concern about a Russell extension has more to do with expected term and cap hit. He’s being played like a top pairing defender in terms of time on ice. So I wouldn’t be too surprised if he’s paid as one. Maybe $5M x 5 years or so.

    Of course, I don’t have any evidence or insight as to what the Oilers might offer. Just seems they really like him.

  51. fifthcartel says:

    Signing Russell for the third pairing LHD spot would be fine, but that doesn’t seem realistic with the way McLellan is using him. He’s amongst the leaders in ice time and I doubt McLellan would suddenly kick back on that.

    I would argue a Russell trade could be catastrophic if they move a better LHD (Klefbom). Russell is a veteran and a legit NHLer, but they haven’t played him where he should be and I’m not sure we should suddenly expect them to. If they sign him it’s for a top 4 spot and the Oilers have better players to fill that role, whether its top 4 or bottom pair. That contract will be terrible.

  52. Lowetide says:

    mumbai max:
    I see MA Pouliot scored at the Spengler. Comeback?
    Happy New Year to all.

    Expect the Oilers sign him, unless LV beats them to it.

  53. ThatDog says:

    Don’t be a camel, LT.

    I don’t agree with Staples on most anything, but his article makes some points that, as a man kneeling unapologetically at the throne of CorsiRel, you should read… He is saying nothing about your idol, only its distant cousin, Raw Corsi… Your guy Woodguy is, in my opinion, embarrassing himself on the tweet machine today.

    I’m an agnostic on a family vacation with my pastor brother-in-law. Exposing yourself to other points of view that directly contradict your own is uncomfortable but essential.

    I know you’re a pro. I’d suggest that you try to read the article, take some value, strengthen your argument, and see how your point of view comes out the other side.

  54. pocession charge says:

    Ryan:
    stush18,

    Make no mistake, when the Oilers sign Russell, he’ll have a NMC.

    Do you think he’d get a NMC on the UFA market this summer? I don’t. So why would Edmonton give him one for an extension? Russell doesn’t have enough leverage in this negotiation.

  55. Ryan says:

    Ryan:
    stush18,

    I’m in the middle of my am workout… but right off the hop, Werenka loses a lot of credibility when he puts Russell on the tier of Pickles.

    That really flunks the smell test for his type of analysis.

    Davis Staples himself spent years lost at sea telling us how great of a winger Ryan Jones was based upon his contributions to scoring chance plus minus… because he had no way of acknowledging or factoring in QOC.

  56. pocession charge says:

    ThatDog:
    Don’t be a camel, LT.

    I don’t agree with Staples on most anything, but his article makes some points that, as a man kneeling unapologetically at the throne of CorsiRel, you should read… He is saying nothing about your idol, only its distant cousin, Raw Corsi… Your guy Woodguy is, in my opinion, embarrassing himself on the tweet machine today.

    I’m an agnostic on a family vacation with my pastor brother-in-law.Exposing yourself to other points of view that directly contradict your own is uncomfortable but essential.

    I know you’re a pro. I’d suggest that you try to read the article, take some value, strengthen your argument, and see how your point of view comes out the other side.

    You are coming across as inflammatory here. This is the kind of disrespect that causes LT to think about closing the commentary. Cut it out.

  57. Evilas says:

    A significant reason for the great results this year is due to the fact that the Edmonton Oilers have 8 actual NHL Defensemen. Defensive depth and Dmen slotted into their proper places. This team has enough firepower up front to score and enough defenders that can defend their net. We haven’t seen this in many years.

    I watched the LA broadcast on Thursday and one thing that stood out to me was their graphic showing shot attempts that missed the net. Edmonton missed the net 18 times (this number does not include blocked shots), LA only 4 times. Shot attempts were something like 70 to 55. This is an area that needs to improve for the Oil to become serious playoff contenders, that and D passes out of the zone. There were still too many Chinese firedrills in their own zone and that was too reminescent of the last 7-8 years.

    I really think an elite passing dman on this roster would make a huge positive difference moving forward. The question is, who are they and who is really available to acquire?

  58. Lowetide says:

    That Dog: Please be respectful of all posters, including the blog author, please and thanks.

  59. trencan says:

    Jaro Halak in my opinion is a little bit unlucky fellow. In Montreal they traded him after fantastic season and really good numbers, he didnt have a chance against #5 draft pick Carey Price. It was risky but good decision by Montreal. Then in St. Louis there was Elliott in his probably best form and they decided for younger, cheaper Allen as backup. In NYI he should finally prove he is legit #1 NHL goalie, but then there was the surgery and Greiss took his chance. Islanders have a lot of problems, they need someone with higher salary to trade and Jaro is on the first place of their list. Its very logical if you look at Greiss salary and numbers. Jaro had also problems in NYI with rotation of 3 goalies and the way of GK coaching and training. His bad situation in team is nothing new, first roumors are cca 7 months old. There is a pressure on him and doesnt feel comfortable. Waiver is just final result of this situation. He is a goalie with big potential but has unstable performance. On national level I liked him on Winter Olypmics Games 2010, still dont understand what happened in final period for bronze medal with Finns. Jaro needs a change and trade will be good for both sides. But I am really not sure wheteher he fits to Oilers roster as expensive backup goalie. Oh and Happy New Year to all of you guys…

  60. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    I read the linked article and was also less than impressed. Who ranks players based on corsi? Corsi has always been known to be only truly useful as a team metric with just player values providing some discussion points. The entire topic of corsi is presented as a straw man for disregarding the merits of other analytic opinions on Russell.

    Besides that there are other factors which make me question the value TruPerformance is bringing (which naturally comes from any black box analysis making broad claims). As per the article from the TruPerfomance website this metric values “Slides to block a shot in the crease to save a goal; Makes a diving play extending his stick to block a backdoor pass to a wide open player…”. So the metrics they use precisely value a high-event player like Russell.

    This seems deeply flawed (depending on how those private metrics are evaluated of course). It reminds me of the players tribune article Carey Price wrote where he talks about how many analysts gush over a goalie making a huge sliding save and flashing the leather; whereas, goalies see that usually this is a sign he is recovering from earlier misreads; a greater goalie is one that always seems to be ahead of the play and make the stops look routine. Similarly, Lidstrom was never known for his flashy defending but always being in the right spot and instantly closing any gaps before something could develop. All of these things seem hindered in the TruPerformance analysis. A quiet defensive game as they indicate has much less value than someone making last ditch efforts.

    So my takeaway is this private metric which values high-event hockey values Kris Russell highly… I seems obvious.

  61. spoiler says:

    Some of us like Larsson and don’t even mind the trade when it is not looked at in a vacuum.

    * * * * *

    LT said…

    I expect, at some point, Adam Larsson’s performances will be viewed outside the asset cost, but we are not there yet. V2hero is one of my favorite twitterers, but I think trash is a tad strong in terms of description for Larsson.

    Pretty sure V2H is referring to salary/AAV here and not asset cost (he’s still wrong).

    * * * * *

    As for Halak…

    NYI will now be forced to retain salary if they wish to move Halak, which is a much better situation for the Oil if they wish to upgrade at the position.

    * * * * *

    As for Staples…

    I don’t trust Staples’s writing or interpretations on anything. I read his political stories for years and they have never struck me as insightful or smart, in fact often the opposite… That’s his purview, so I am even more leery when he enters the realm of arithmetic, statistics and maths.

    Advanced Statsi’s are well aware of the limitations of the tools available. We are always looking for more measures, more context, and more means by which we can compare between teams. The Staples article doesn’t really tell us anything we didn’t already know. Or wouldn’t do if the manpower and man hours were there.

    Anything we’d really want to know would require TruPerf to pop the hood and let us take the engine apart—not gonna happen.

    And even if we had every measure our hearts desired…. we’d still argue forever on weighting and modelling.

  62. Evilas says:

    ThatDog,

    I too am an agnostic, but I am respectful. If you want people to take you seriously, you should read this: http://www.ehow.com/how_2121977_make-friends-influence-people.html

  63. Westchester Oil says:

    Some great discussions today. My point in bringing up the Staples-TruPerformance article is that there are a lot of different metrics – Corsi, WoodMoney, WheatNOil and now TruPerformance – that look like they have some value. I am not smart enough to know which one is the best on its own, but in combination, I think they can tell us a lot.

    I also liked the comparison from NYCOil for using different metrics to evaluating stocks.

    Another analogy, as a Canadian living in the U.S., I have been exposed to the biases in this country in the media. If the only news you watched was MSNBC, you would be very biased on the left, or if you only watched Fox News, you would be very biased on the right. There is probably some nuggets of truth in both of them, but you would need to be aware of what the other side is saying to get a better handle on the whole truth.

  64. Pastor of Disaster says:

    My Lowetide.ca-Related Hopes for 2017:

    1) PLAYOFFS. For the Oilers. And not a few choice rivals.
    2) Connor McDavid = Art Ross
    3) 2nd half surge for Nugey Baby, Eberle, Lucic
    4) Ongoing relative healthiness
    5) Continued burgeoning of Neon Leon
    6) Continued growth of Klefbom, Benning, Slepy, Drake, prospects, coaches, Rogers Place in-game entertainment group, etc.
    7) Sensible trade deadline day
    8) World Peace and Political Unity
    9) Blog author to finally own a Beck album. Each one is different. Each one is legendary. You seem more like a “Sea Change” or “Morning Phase” kinda guy. I prefer “Odelay”, “Guero”, and “The Information”. He’s got something for everyone.

  65. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    till_horcoff_is_coach:

    This seems deeply flawed (depending on how those private metrics are evaluated of course).It reminds me of the players tribune article Carey Price wrote where he talks about how many analysts gush over a goalie making a huge sliding save and flashing the leather; whereas, goalies see that usually this is a sign he is recovering from earlier misreads; a greater goalie is one that always seems to be ahead of the play and make the stops look routine.

    aka the Billy Ranford special to which I alluded in my post above!
    P.S. I love Billy.

  66. stush18 says:

    wheatnoil:
    My concern about a Russell extension has more to do with expected term and cap hit. He’s being played like a top pairing defender in terms of time on ice. So I wouldn’t be too surprised if he’s paid as one. Maybe $5M x 5 years or so.

    Of course, I don’t have any evidence or insight as to what the Oilers might offer. Just seems they really like him.

    I can’t see him getting anywhere that much.

    He couldn’t get 4 mill last year. I can’t see it climbing.

  67. Yegfoundation says:

    After reading numerous articles, David Staples is not someone who’s opinion I value, or who’s code of conduct I admire. I do commend him for being successful in his line of work, there are many others who do enjoy his writing.

    Yesterday on twitter, David spoke as an expert about the accuracy of Poll’s he’s conducted on his website. I hope that David learned to be more humble when speaking on topics he’s not an expert.

    https://twitter.com/hunkEmusic/status/814874924196253696

  68. meanashell11 says:

    Westchester Oil,

    Hey Westchester, are you in NY state? I’m in Greenwich CT.

  69. Pescador says:

    Pastor of Disaster:
    My Lowetide.ca-Related Hopes for 2017:

    1) PLAYOFFS.For the Oilers.And not a few choice rivals.
    2) Connor McDavid = Art Ross
    3) 2nd half surge for Nugey Baby, Eberle, Lucic
    4) Ongoing relative healthiness
    5) Continued burgeoning of Neon Leon
    6) Continued growth of Klefbom, Benning, Slepy, Drake, prospects, coaches, Rogers Place in-game entertainment group, etc.
    6) Sensible trade deadline day
    7) World Peace and Political Unity
    8) Blog author to finally own a Beck album.Each one is different.Each one is legendary.You seem more like a “Sea Change” or “Morning Phase” kinda guy.I prefer “Odelay”, “Guero”, and “The Information”.He’s got something for everyone.

    Nice post, you had me until 8) Beck album & “legendary”
    Lordy

  70. Pescador says:

    stush18: Sign Russell.

    Protect 7-3-1.

    Expose Davidson and Russell, and let them choose between whoever they feel is better. At a 2 yr, 3 mill AAV (roughly), I’d like to think the more famous Russell gets chosen.

    Either way, you have you 3ld for next year.

    Honestly, I think this is the best we can hope for.
    Sign Russell with a NMC then expose Maroon & Davidson?
    Are Fking kidding me?

  71. Woogie63 says:

    In the West the big heavy teams still cycle, alot. This years group is much better at winning more of these 2 v. 1 contest.

    We have three very good cycling lines and right now 19, 93, 29 might be the best in the league.

    on the defensive side

    each of our defensemen pairings is strong enough to win the 1 v. 2 battles

    This year the weak side winger seem to be more responsible to get to the front of the net.

    Last year Yak, Hall, Purcell and Eberle were 3-6 feet out of position too often

  72. Frank the dog says:

    Lowetide:
    That Dog: Please be respectful of all posters, including the blog author, please and thanks.

    Just for the record, That Dog has absolutely nothing to do with This Dog aka Frank.
    All the best for the New Year, LT!

  73. Muletrain97 says:

    LT, I saw the Condors game the other night where Lander did Not play. I can tell you Khaira was a BEAST! He was def the best on the ice that game by a mile. Controlled the boards, had a goal, and for the most part was dangerous every shift. Def ready for the NHL as a bottom pairing center or winger. Sleep looked good also, you can tell he has played in the NHL already and he looks good as well. Good to finally see depth in our organization! Going to the outdoor game next weekend, and got a holiday pack of games and will try to keep updating on the farm team. Fun to look at! Happy New Year all! Go Oil!

  74. New Improved Darkness says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    I may have misunderstood but I don’t think it said Vlasic was average. It said he made so few errors defensively he was elite on that side, but his lack of contributions to offense make him in that tier below the elite D, (but better than average).

    Staples managed to be clear as muddled.

    In comparison, a player like Vlasic of San Jose makes his share of positive defensive plays and vaults to the top of the defensive d-man pile (at least in the 15/16 season) by making very, very few defensive mistakes, Werenka says.

    The problem with the word “share” is that its one of the few words in English that pretty mandate a relative frame of reference. For example, we like to talk about lions “sharing the kill”, meaning that one or two bear-shouldered lions were first to the slurpy organ tree, most got at least one bite of a choice morsel, and one or two agile buckworms were left to grind fleshy residue off of bumpy bone ends—until moonlight fetched the hyenas (hence the paucity of feline buckworms who are not agile).

    This reads to me as Vlasic not being so deficient in positive skills that he couldn’t (perhaps) have developed this side of his game into his meal ticket, except that he’s already got an A+ meal ticket elsewhere in the mix, which, if deployed against the right opposition, wins hockey games, no need to overextend the proficiency envelope.

    Economics tends to teach comparative advantage in the large frame as if it’s one nation against another, but it actually applies at all scales, all the way down to internal decisions over skillset refinement.

    ———

    Staples does one other thing, which is distressingly common in this article type.

    Of course, Corsi data is public, so its own mild correlation to winning can be tested, while Werenka’s data is private, so it can’t be tested by public analytics enthusiasts. This is problematic for public discourse. NHL teams, of course, have full access to all TruPerformance’s data and studies and will make their own decisions.

    Great. Never lays out TruPerformance’s business model at the outset, but slides it in by implication in the closing paragraph.

    “Of course” experienced readers of this kind of thing never fail to infer the correct business model.

    ———

    Zenph was one of these outfits that spent a lot of time talking up the secret sauce, while rarely commenting on mass commercial appeal (turns out there wasn’t much, and now Zenph is no more.)

    Art Tatum plays "Humouresque" – w/Zenph dubbing

    So now we’re left with a lot of old, muddy audio touched by God.

    Clint Eastwood and Ray Charles on Art Tatum, Oscar Peterson & Nat King Cole

    Nat at 8m15 is a real eye-opener. Damn. Here we have—with Nat’s legacy—one A+ (his singing) drowning out another A+ (his piano playing).

    Also, for today’s trivia, the working title of “unforgettable” was “uncomparable”.

    Kris Russell, come on down.

    ———

    Afterthought:

    Somehow, I don’t think that song would have been quite so unforgettable, if they hadn’t changed its title.

  75. Chachi says:

    stush18: I can’t see him getting anywhere that much.

    He couldn’t get 4 mill last year. I can’t see it climbing.

    The Oilers and he agreed that 3.1 million was a fair number for a one year deal. Much more than that on a multi-year deal will be too much.

  76. Ryan says:

    Chachi: The Oilers and he agreed that 3.1 million was a fair number for a one year deal. Much more than that on a multi-year deal will be too much.

    Well, Russell’s on par with Vlassic (per TruPerformance), so you’re looking more at $4.25 m plus adjusting the cap change from 2013.

    Let’s just say about $5.2 m.

    🙂

  77. JimmyV1965 says:

    pocession charge: You are coming across as inflammatory here.This is the kind of disrespect that causes LT to think about closing the commentary.Cut it out.

    I didn’t find this inflammatory at all. He questioned LT’s comments on something. He didn’t criticize him as a person or anything like that. It’s sad that we’re so thinned skinned now that we can’t even question someone or hold them to account. I would be shocked if LT was offended.

  78. tsg says:

    I’ve seen a few commenter’s remark on Larsson’s value contract, and it was one of the positives I took out of the Hall deal as well. Being able to build a cost effective defense moving forward would have great value to the team. Based on his performance thus far I was questioning my assumption that it was a good contract so I went digging into cap hits for defensemen.

    This is nothing complex. I simply ranked each teams defensemen by time on ice using Corsica.hockey adjusting one or two manually for injury time, and then assigned the cap hit each had based on numbers out of cap friendly. Taking an average cap hit for defensemen playing in each category I received the following data:

    1st in TOI: $4.9 million average cap hit
    2nd in TOI: $3.8 million average cap hit
    3rd in TOI: $3.9 million average cap hit
    4th in TOI: $3.1 million average cap hit

    Larsson gets paid $4.16 million per season. This compares reasonably well to the $3.8 million average in the league for defensemen playing the third most TOI for their respective teams, although it’s not a bargain by any stretch. Unfortunately, I would slot Larsson as the secondary defender in a pairing he is on, and thus consider him a better fit in the four slot. In this case his cap hit is no bargain, but instead a bit of a drag to the tune of $1 million relative to league average defense salaries. This could hurt somewhat on a team paying McDavid and Drai soon, although it is by no means catastrophic.

    This look at Larsson’s cap hit is by no means rigorous. You could go through and further attempt to rank where Larsson fits in terms of capability in each slot relative to cap hit, but I believe this gives a broad overview of Larsson’s cap impact relative to league average cap hits for defensemen. Based on his current performance to date as an Oiler, I would be reasonably confident saying the contract is not great and perhaps on the poor side relative to league average.

  79. JimmyV1965 says:

    I really find it sad to see ThatDog taking so much heat from posters. He did tell LT not to be a camel. On the offensive scale that ranks about 1 out of 10. He did encourage LT to have an open mind, which is good advice. We are allowed to disagree with people and we should all be big boys and accept the criticism. Even if it’s said in a way we don’t like. As long as it’s not vindictive or hurtful.

  80. Pastor of Disaster says:

    Pescador: Nice post, you had me until 8) Beck album & “legendary”
    Lordy

    Thanks! But you don’t think Beck is Where It’s At? That’s like “Wow”. Now I feel like a Loser, baby. Although I guess it’s Nobody’s Fault But My Own.

    At least we can both look forward to The Golden Age approaching our beloved Oilers.

  81. Side says:

    JimmyV1965: I didn’t find this inflammatory at all. He questioned LT’s comments on something. He didn’t criticize him as a person or anything like that.It’s sad that we’re so thinned skinned now that we can’t even question someone or hold them to account.I would be shocked if LT was offended.

    Guess it depends on your opinion of camels.

    If I was looking to have a reasonable discussion I probably wouldn’t lead by calling the person an animal.

    Not sure if it has anything to do with being thin skinned “nowadays” either. Calling someone a pig, cow, camel, dog, whatever animal has been an insult since the beginning of time.

    It’s just disrespectful.

  82. lynn says:

    Muletrain97:
    LT, I saw the Condors game the other night where Lander did Not play.I can tell you Khaira was a BEAST! He was def the best on the ice that game by a mile.Controlled the boards, had a goal, and for the most part was dangerous every shift.Def ready for the NHL as a bottom pairing center or winger.Sleep looked good also, you can tell he has played in the NHL already and he looks good as well.Good to finally see depth in our organization! Going to the outdoor game next weekend, and got a holiday pack of games and will try to keep updating on the farm team.Fun to look at!Happy New Year all!Go Oil!

    Jujhar Khaira has been my favorite prospect. Khaira has come from far back in the pack: Prince George Spruce Kings (the team from whom he was drafted), a year at Michigan Tech, a year at Everett (WHL), and now he is in his third season in the AHL. This is a pivotal season for Khaira.

    I think Khaira can have a good NHL career as a bottom-six player, if not with Oilers, with another team. If the Oilers are in trade discussions, I’m guessing Khaira’s name comes up in a multi-player proposal. I’m hoping Khaira is with Oilers next season, though–a good young player on a value contract.

  83. The Hermit says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I recommend that you read the thread again as our host has commented on the issue. 🙂

  84. bendelson says:

    Well, if I may…

    That V2Hero tweet is just plain silly.

    Larsson may not have the offensive some had hoped for…
    He may not have the speed some had hoped for…

    But he is a young, solid, 20 min/night defenceman that can handle life in the top 4 and there is (obviously) significant value in that. He uses his stick very well (punishing, at times) and does a very good job eliminating the ‘heavy team’ cycle that handicapped this team for years.

    He is tenacious like the Eurasian Beaver.
    He is more than welcome on my team.

    ______

    I will be attending the game tonight.
    I expect an entertaining affair and another victory.
    I can get used to this…

    Happy New Year to one and all.
    Best in 2017.

    Woot! Woot!

  85. JimmyV1965 says:

    The Hermit:
    JimmyV1965,

    I recommend that you read the thread again as our host has commented on the issue. 🙂

    I saw that LT commented on it after I wrote my post. I was diappointed.

  86. Soup Fascist says:

    In the US on vacation. Anyone have a link to watch the WJ game?

  87. Lowetide says:

    Canada vs. USA. Lets go men!!

  88. frjohnk says:

    A Canada win this afternoon and an Oiler win tonight would be a great way to end 2016.

    Let’s go boys.

  89. The Hermit says:

    JimmyV1965: I saw that LT commented on it after I wrote my post. I was diappointed.

    I just want everyone here to get along (most of the time). 😉

  90. Lowetide says:

    Caleb Jones with a fairly hard cross check there against barzal, no call.

  91. Soup Fascist says:

    JDï™:
    Soup Fascist,

    Should be something here:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLStreams/comments/5lba84/iihf_world_juniors_canada_vs_usa_330_est/

    Thank you kind, sir. Works like a charm.

    May your 2017 be filled with health, wealth and an Oiler playoff appearance.

  92. Jethro Tull says:

    Got called a camel, eh? What i wouldn’t give to be called a camel! Jailer’s pet.

    (Marvellous race, the Romans.)

  93. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    Caleb Jones with a fairly hard cross check there against barzal, no call.

    Jones has played a bunch so far.
    Surprised as he is noted as an offensive Dman but he played on the PK 5on4 and 5on3 1st unit both times.

  94. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    Caleb Jones with a fairly hard cross check there against barzal, no call.

    USA getting away with quite a bit of “heavy hockey” to my eye.

  95. kinger_OIL says:

    Westchester Oil:
    LT – thanks for another year of great writing. Happy New Year to you and all of your readers.

    Apologies for going off-topic. I know there was some discussion of David Staples at the Cult of Hockey, recently. He has written an excellent piece on TruPerformance, the analytics company of Brad Werenka. I think this is required reading for anybody interested in analytics.

    Some highlights of the piece: TruPerformance utilizes 17 analysts who track every game and rate every event by each player. Each game takes 9 hours, on average, to analyze. Werenka claims that TruPerformance has a 0.81 correlation to winning, compared to about 0.33 for Corsi.

    TruPerformance also likes Kris Russell. (But I hope Chiarelli does not use this data to justify paying him $4 million x 5 years, or something silly like that – especially given our need to resign Draisaitl and McDavid in the near future).

    – This is awesome stuff: Back to my Snowie development with BackGammon: this is exactly what we did.: Now BG is more static than hockey, but in a freeze frame, you have the exact position of each player, and the roll of the dice: so you can analysis move by move what is optimal in each situation.

    – If you took a freeze-frame of hockey and everytime there was a decision to be made (in BG thatès the roll, and or the doubles cube), in hockey its the position of each player, and how they react to each decision: meaning when the opponent has the puck, loses the puck, puck goes into board, etc.

    – You then are able to gather enough data so that the exact same position repeats itself over and over: just like in BG. You then are able once you have gathered enough data, be able to assign a value to each move that each player on the ice does in reaction to every decison.

    – Then over many years and gathering much data, you can figure out what the optimal position and reaction is to every position and outcome. This is exactly how we were able to create an evaluation tool for backgammon. Itès the same principle that was applied to Chess, and all board games

    – That is it holy-grail for Hockey: a real-time analysis of what each player on the ice is doing in relation to what is happening. This would allow you to evaluate each player on metrics way more dynamically than a primitive corsi, shot, etc…

    – Eventually, with enough computer power and data analysis, you will be able to determine exactly how a team does.

    – For instance in Backgammon, with JellyFish and other applications, each game can be broken down into what percent you played an optimal game, what percent the opponent played vs optimal, and hat percen of the outcome was attributatble to the dice luck, or in hockey puck-luck. You can also analysis move by move the same thing.

    – The best backgammon player in the world would beat someone who knows all the rules approximately 63% of the time in a single game. In hockey, they say that over 50% of the result of a hockey is luck.

    – One day we will have these numbers for hockey: a real time analysis of each player, team, luck and opponents play…

  96. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: Jones has played a bunch so far.
    Surprised as he is noted as an offensive Dman but he played on the PK 5on4 and 5on3 1st unit both times.

    Yeah, he is out there a lot already tonight. Let all USA players the other day, too.

  97. jfry says:

    i have a friend that worked for tru performance doing game analysis. i’m not going to talk too much about their method as i don’t want to speak out of turn, but ….

    his background is as a junior coach who wants to be a “pro coach”. it’s interesting because he has no interest in analytics …has no interest in tlusky’s work on zone entries, etc.

    he hated working for tru performance. thought it was really a ridiculous platform. he loves players like lucic and hates players like eberle, and with how they rate things, it’s really easy to be subjective on everything. he was supposed to rank things on “aggression” levels. ie, player could have been more aggressive on that play, which is completely outside of system play. he said, “it’s all about assigning blame.” so in that sense, i’ll bet staples has interest because of his error stats. who knows.

    it was glorified video analysis, but to say it had anything to do with analytics, is a really big stretch. I was shocked at how “lo-fi” their process and thinking was on hockey, systems and individual players contributions.

    “be stronger” was probably 50% of the take aways from his reports! 🙂

  98. Westchester Oil says:

    meanashell11,

    Yes, I’m from the thriving village of Larchmont, NY.

  99. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, he is out there a lot already tonight. Let all USA players the other day, too.

    First time I have watched him.

    He looks bigger than listed. Skates well, is aggressive when defending. Skates with his head up with puck looking for a pass or play.

    Definitely a player here.

  100. meanashell11 says:

    Westchester Oil,

    My kids went to FASNY when we first moved down.

    We should get together and watch a game some time.

  101. Lowetide says:

    jfry:
    i have a friend that worked for tru performance doing game analysis. i’m not going to talk too much about their method as i don’t want to speak out of turn, but ….

    his background is as a junior coach who wants to be a “pro coach”. it’s interesting because he has no interest in analytics …has no interest in tlusky’s work on zone entries, etc.

    he hated working for tru performance. thought it was really a ridiculous platform. he loves players like lucic and hates players like eberle, and with how they rate things, it’s really easy to be subjective on everything. he was supposed to rank things on “aggression” levels. ie, player could have been more aggressive on that play, which is completely outside of system play. he said, “it’s all about assigning blame.” so in that sense, i’ll bet staples has interest because of his error stats. who knows.

    it was glorified video analysis, but to say it had anything to do with analytics, is a really big stretch. I was shocked at how “lo-fi” their process and thinking was on hockey, systems and individual players contributions.

    “be stronger” was probably 50% of the take aways from his reports! 🙂

    Haha. Be stronger. Damn. Stupid kids! 🙂

  102. 99266in87 says:

    US def protecting middle of the ice. Wide with speed and make the cut to the net, this will be a different game.

  103. spoiler says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I don’t know if he’s ever posted before but leading with calling the host a camel and then following that by calling him close-minded, calling his (our) friend an embarrassment, and equating LT’s preference for Corsi “worship” is not going to get your points respected or even heard in any conversation.

    It’s over-the-top, inflammatory, and condescending. JMHO.

  104. Lowetide says:

    Kunin gets five and a game, looks like he elevated and it was a head hit. Fair call imo, but I am not a ref, only cut them off in traffic whenever I can.

  105. VOR says:

    I am going to inflame both sides in the argument over David Staples latest article on tracking metrics. Let’s start with my initial response:

    “Brad, I know you are talking your book but cherry pick much?” Many of you have rightly pointed out that raw corsi is a straw man. That nobody uses raw corsi to rate players. But what you seem to have missed is that then he picks a small subset of a single partial season to prove his approach is superior. There is small sample size and then their is ludicrously small sample size. That just makes both Mr. Staples and Mr. Werenka look like they either flunked out of first year university stats after the first quiz or never took any stats in the first place.

    Every year, when the year is over, I rank all NHL players on every metric I can lay my hands on and by combining various metrics. I am planning to publish the entire data set at the end of this year which will be my year 10 and give me enough data to assure me the stats mean something. I hope to keep going for years to come. I can’t say I have made any great discoveries. There is a stunning amount of noise in all the data sets, and even nine years in statistical analysis is tricky. If any of you look at the data and see something obvious I will both delighted and of course embarrassed.

    That said, the limited amounts I posted here, the early parts of the dataset, convinced me corsi relative doesn’t work really well for ranking defencemen (though it ain’t bad at the very top end). It does, however, work stunningly well for ranking forwards. I am with our host 100% on that one.

    That was just based on my own impression of who the top players in the NHL are. Given that is preposterously subjective, with the help of some friends this year I am data mining and building a data base of who the MSM and the blogosphere saw good in the 2016-2017 NHL season. It will be a raw score this year (saw him good and said so on the Internet – saw him bad and said so the Internet). Well on a small subset of the Internet because of limitations of time, technology, and some wildly popular but unminable sites.

    This is meant to be a companion piece to my work on an AI approach to drafting. I am hoping to go live with both within a week of the end of the 2016-2017 season. Both are meant to be open source. Data wants to be free. Which is my biggest single problem with Tru-Performance’s business model. If you are going to do this sort of project you need a better monetization model.

    You all get that he is talking to the media to try and find new clients. Makes you wonder if the analytics department of many NHL teams are saying no thanks to Mr. Werenka’s amazing elixir. That would explain the sudden flurry of articles promoting tracking technology and trashing fancy stats.

    Now comes the part that will get me fire bombed. As recently as this summer smart people here were saying you could never track everything that happens in every NHL game. Well, obviously you can track a whack of it. Coming soon, open source, universally available tracking stats. Followed by every analytics department in the NHL struggling to remain relevant as computers analyze the data from tracking and put it in the hands of GMs and coaches without any highly paid mediators adding their input. That open source data tracking may well be provided by Mr. Werenka’s company. If he stops being a camel.

  106. Lowetide says:

    Canada scores a very big goal. 2-1 USA.

  107. Jethro Tull says:

    LT, love Looch in the retro England top. Had one myself with Lineker on the back growing up. Most of my friends had Gascoigne.

  108. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Perhaps unsurprisingly Can Looks like a bunch of nervous kids out there. Barzal suddenly has the worst hands and Strome can’t catch a pass. Now they get a fortunate goal off an endless PP the momentum swings and the Americans are chasing. Junior hockey is great

  109. Georges says:

    Read the Staples article. Very quickly:

    Werenka says the plays they focus on — their raw data — have an .81 correlation to winning, which is far superior to Corsi, which has a .33 correlation to winning.

    I also have a stat that has a .89 correlation to winning, if winning is GF%. That stat is the player’s PDO. Werenka’s company and Stathletes and anyone else that’s hiring people to do this type of video analysis and assign credit or blame is coming up with a proxy for PDO. The value they’re adding is providing reasons for how a player generated his PDO so that GM’s can justify PDO-driven decisions.

    That’s why they like Russell while Corsi hates Russell. Werenka is notably not quoted on the reproducibility of his stat. David Staples could really help his readers by asking that question.

    (I’m not in the PDO is luck camp. But tracking companies like this are trying to assign a reason for everything. That’s going way over in the other direction. Teams that have capable in-house analysts should be able to call that for what it is.)

    This kind of work comes down to dozens and dozens of decisions and judgements made by TruPerformance game analysts on every player every game. The decisions are subjective, but Werenka says training, guidelines and auditing is in place to make sure that the raters are reliable, that one rater will watch the same game and make almost all the same calls on the same plays and players.

    That screams quality control issues. That sounds like horrible, grinding work. Werenka claims it takes 9 hours to produce the data for a game. Imagine doing that work. What do you think your error rate would be when you were actually trying? That’s why you get software to do this, like SportsVU in basketball.

  110. Jethro Tull says:

    If i had something with an 81% correlation to winning, i sure wouldn’t be telling you schmucks. I’d be Dan Balzerian.

  111. kooler says:

    So we only have 2 prospects in the WJ…should we worried with how bare our cupboards are?

    Gagner 28pts, that would be 3rd on the Oil I think…..Dubnyk killing it…is it coaching or did these players just need the right situation to excel, are there guys out there Oil should be looking at?

  112. Lowetide says:

    kooler:
    So we only have 2 prospects in the WJ…should we worried with how bare our cupboards are?

    Gagner 28pts, that would be 3rd on the Oil I think…..Dubnyk killing it…is it coaching or did these players just need the right situation to excel, are there guys out there Oil should be looking at?

    Short answer on DD and Samwise is that this organization was the wayward wind. Good for them for finding their way, I give them immense credit.

    As for the Oilers prospects at WJs, Tyler Benson and Ethan Bear could easily have made Team Canada imo, but the men they chose are certainly bona fide. Thats Canada. Edmonton had no second or third round pick in 2015, and this is a 19-year old tournament. Chances are Benson makes the team next year, along with EDMs first-round pick in 2017.

    McDavid and JP are the two first rounders from the last two draft years and they weren’t going back after dominating at that level.

  113. Georges says:

    VOR:

    That said, the limited amounts I posted here, the early parts of the dataset, convinced me corsi relative doesn’t work really well for ranking defencemen (though it ain’t bad at the very top end). It does, however, work stunningly well for ranking forwards. I am with our host 100% on that one.

    I’m very much looking forward to seeing the dataset and any conclusions you’ve drawn from it, VOR.

    The statement I quoted above lines up with where I’m at with my thinking right now, too. The variance in defensemen’s corsi seems to be more dependent than forwards on team corsi. Forwards seem to own more of their results. One of the simple reasons I can come up with is that there are more forwards than defensemen on the ice. Forwards have more of an impact on where the puck goes and stays (which is what corsi is really measuring) simply because there are more of them on the ice.

  114. Georges says:

    jfry,

    “be stronger” was probably 50% of the take aways from his reports!

    Beautiful! What does the data say? Well, what do you want it to say?

  115. Lowetide says:

    Jones is a dandy player, smart and quick and fast. Man he has the tools.

  116. Georges says:

    I’d like to throw some love out there for Jay Woodcroft and the PP units this year. Our GF60 rate at 5v4 is 7.86 which puts us at 12th out of 300 team results over the past 10 years. There are 3 teams ahead of us this year: CBJ, led by the first unit juggernaut, ANA, and PIT. Our first unit is doing really well and our second unit, led by Nuge and Sekera, is not too shabby. Yayy!

  117. --hudson-- says:

    VOR,

    Very interesting! What type of AI will you use?

  118. sliderule says:

    Caleb Jones looks better than all the Canadian defencemen .

    Would you trade JP for Dubois

    No!!!

  119. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    The fretting about Gagner is ridiculous. He burned through half the organizations in the league before he figured it out. It’s not like he left the Oil and turned into a real NHLer overnight.

  120. Chachi says:

    Ryan: Well, Russell’s on par with Vlassic (per TruPerformance), so you’re looking more at $4.25 m plus adjusting the cap change from 2013.

    Let’s just say about $5.2 m.

    🙂

    Honestly no number would surprise me at this point and not because I think the GM is an idiot or anything like that. I think that smart people on both sides of the statspocalypse can watch the same game and look at the same numbers and come up with widely varying opinions on players and I guess that is a source of fun and frustration when watching a hockey team you are emotionally invested in. All I know is that I want the Oilers to destroy the Canucks tonight.

  121. haters says:

    What in the heaven do people have against defenseman who can play defense here … I’ve stopped coming to read this blog because of these insane stands that people are taking on Russel and Larsson. Not the author mind you, I think LT is taking it exactly how I am, both players are fried gold in their end, both are human and make mistakes that either their frame or foot speed can’t correct.. but make no mistake these are the best 2 defensive defenseman since Jason Smith. Just miserable to play against.

    I’m not in the camp of let’s sign Russel to 5×5 but I think it’s reasonable to offer 4x2years. As for Larsson and the Hall debate, we got what we needed. We stole their best Defenman aside from Greene and it wasn’t even close. Look at NJ’s save % and overall goals against. Only one thing changed. Also Hall has as many points as ebs or even one less now and he’s missed a lot of playing time. So when he’s off rehabbing his injurys it puts the devils at a distinct disadvantage.

    I enjoy reading the work of fancy stat people but I trust my eyes 10 times out of 10 and quite frankly the arguments and name calling is making both sides look very immature and pig headed. The proof of who is right is always up on the scoreboard. Numbers don’t lie check the scoreboard as Jayz once so elequintly said, look at the splits of games with Russel in lineup as opposed to out. Look at last years split compared to this year .

    It’s not hard to see who has the better info..

  122. godot10 says:

    Tracking stats analysis and possession/shot analysis actually sort of agree on Russell.

    Russell is good at defending (tracking stats analysis) but spends far to much time defending (possession/shot analysis). Go back to those Sutter and Tippett quotes about defending.

    Tha ability of a defensemen to block shots is a good thing. Blocking too many shots is a bad thing, because it means on is defending too much.

    I was for signing Russell to a one-year deal, and am for signing him to another one-year deal, a one-year ONLY.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr0JaXfKj68

    TruPerformance is really glorified see-him good. I want machine (camera or chip) player and puck tracking data from the NHL, and it should be public, so the data analysis can be crowd sourced.

    TruPerformance doesn’t seem to be collecting time in the D zone or time in the O zone, which would seem to be a pretty important statistic for a defensemen. Doing good things in the D zone is good, but not if one is spending all one’s time in the D zone defending.

    And since the OIlers have McDavid, any advanced stats analysis of a player has to look at data with and more importantly data without McDavid.

  123. spoiler says:

    VOR: That said, the limited amounts I posted here, the early parts of the dataset, convinced me corsi relative doesn’t work really well for ranking defencemen (though it ain’t bad at the very top end). It does, however, work stunningly well for ranking forwards. I am with our host 100% on that one.

    Totally agree with this. I always look at it for forwards, almost never for defensemen.

    Looking forward to your work next summer!

  124. haters says:

    Also
    GO OILERS !!!!!!
    And
    If the canucks are in full rebuild mode at tradedeadline day would any of you people offer a package of picks/prospects to acquire the Sedins ?
    They still got it and that would be legit Unicorns.
    Not sure about the cap or if their contracts would restrict signing anyone but this is the kinda stuff we should be debating instead of running existing players under the bus daily 🙂

  125. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    Jones is a dandy player, smart and quick and fast. Man he has the tools.

    Yup.

    As for the Oiler vs Canucks tonight, an Oiler win puts them 11 points ahead of the Canucks. An oiler loss and only 7 points ahead. Canucks r one of the worst teams in the league,oilers need to step on there throats and never let up.

  126. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Short answer on DD and Samwise is that this organization was the wayward wind. Good for them for finding their way, I give them immense credit.

    As for the Oilers prospects at WJs, Tyler Benson and Ethan Bear could easily have made Team Canada imo, but the men they chose are certainly bona fide. Thats Canada. Edmonton had no second or third round pick in 2015, and this is a 19-year old tournament. Chances are Benson makes the team next year, along with EDMs first-round pick in 2017.

    McDavid and JP are the two first rounders from the last two draft years and they weren’t going back after dominating at that level.

    But would you rather have Raddysh or Benson, based on performances thus far this year and tournament?

    Hopefully we prevail in the end after all.

  127. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    George do you have that spread sheet with all the correlations that you ran?

  128. kgo says:

    haters:

    “If the canucks are in full rebuild mode at tradedeadline day would any of you people offer a package of picks/prospects to acquire the Sedins ?”

    Hells no! Even if they took back Fayne and Pou we would still be carrying an extra $6.7MM into next year….

    Even if their contracts expired I wouldn’t want those soccer style wimps in Oilers silks. They’re reg season players, hardly effective during the playoffs even during their prime, let alone in their golden years.

  129. VOR says:

    Georges,

    I have always thought that GMs, coaches and fans make things too complicated when it comes to the powerplay. Great powerplays, and CBJ will be in their number if they keep it up for the rest of the season, are explained by just two things; the presence of great powerplay players and those players having, even for them, great years.

    I tried once looking at the top fifty power plays of all time in each of two categories. One category was most power play goals by a team in a season, and highest team powerplay scoring % (conversion) in a season. If I remember correctly and it has been a while, Buffalo led in one category and Montreal in the other. The two lists of course had overlap. I am guessing you would find the same thing with GF per 60. As I found with the first two categories.

    Top fifty power plays feature one or more players from 1 or more of the following 4 lists. Top fifty most powerplay goals in a single season (duh obviously), Top fifty most points in a single season (big whoop). Top fifty in powerplay goals in a career or powerplay points in a career. That is only a little more of a suprise than the single season correlation.

    Where it gets interesting is when you look in depth at those career leaders. Turns out being good on the powerplay is a highly reproducible skill and a highly transferable one. Great powerplay performers have many seasons far above league average and they can do it on all manner of different teams. Dave Andreychuk is sort of the poster boy. He rips it up with Dale Hawrechuk in Buffalo. The next year he, Hawrechuk, and Patty LaFontaine light it up. In the middle of which Andreychuk gets traded to Toronto and turns out to have magic chemistry with Doug Gilmour. Or you could use Teemu Selanne or my personal favourite Ray Borque. They both had repeated great seasons on different teams and playing for different coaches.

    I would go as far as to suggest your power play reflects on your GM more than it does your coach.

  130. geowal says:

    Sekera is just sick, wouldn’t get too bothered about it

  131. Woodguy says:

    Re: Fans not feeling joy.

    I don’t see it.

    Everyone who gets accused of not enjoying the winning are the same people I see living and dying with each goal and going away from Twitter happy after wins and talk is starting about playoffs.

    The problem is people who read their bitching about specific players and conflate this with not being happy with the team’s results.

    Those are not the same things.

    The problem is people who see people like me discussing things we like and don’t like and tell us “OMGBBQ WHY CAN’T YOU BE HAPPY!!???!?”

    1) We’re very happy with the wins and where the team is, we think they could be better, but we’re happy.

    2) We’ll be like this even if they win two Cups in a row. We’ll be sweating over the next set of roster moves.

    This is us and it’s how we enjoy hockey.

    I’m not going to change and I’m not going to apologize for it either.

    You can mute us on twitter and skip my posts here or ask LT to ask me to stop posting.

  132. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    The fretting about Gagner is ridiculous. He burned through half the organizations in the league before he figured it out. It’s not like he left the Oil and turned into a real NHLer overnight.

    I haven’t seen a lot of fretting about it, mostly a recognition of a decade of forcing kids into roles they could not handle. The Oilers 2006-16 will be a reminder of same rolling out this century as far as the eye can see, and Gagner, Dubnyk and others will enjoy careers that will be offered as proof.

  133. Woodguy says:

    Re: Truperformance

    David mis-represented corsi analysis again and that was my biggest issue with the piece.

    Werenka said two things that made me raise a Spockian eyebrow:

    1) Vlasic is a 2nd tier Dman. By eye and by numbers he’s been elite for years. Team Canada 3 Olys in a row I think.

    Anyone who rates Vlasic as 2nd tier immediately doesn’t pass the smell test

    2) His metrics are correlated 81% with winning hockey games. Individual games are chaotic and subject to a ridiculous amount of variance. Some smarter than me have figured that hockey has a theoretical limit of 62% correlation with total events on the ice.

    Someone claiming 81% should set off sirens like Homer trying to purchase the Ultimate Behemoth at Bob’s RV Round Up.

  134. Woodguy says:

    Re: Truperformance

    I like data gathering and more discret events that are logged the better.

    I look forward to when high speed cameras catch every piece of player and puck movement and that data is available to everyone.

    I bet it takes 2 years just to figure out what info is useful and what info is not.

    Werenka is probably doing the best he can with what he has, but I haven’t seen the data, nor the residuals on his correlations (and have someone explain them to me) so I can’t comment.

    The little he let out in the Staples piece isn’t encouraging though.

    Yes, Russell defends very well. I agree with that.

    Where is the fact that the Oilers have to defend more when he’s on the ice than when he’s on?

    If they are the ones who told Peter that Russell’s passes result in a higher sh%, why isn’t that happening this year? (only Letestu is higher among Centers, which are proxies for lines)

    I’d be wary based on what he has made public and I’m not Werenka’s competitor so I don’t have a dog in the fight.

  135. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    100% aligned – Judge a man by his questions and not his answers.

    Its fundamental to why this place is special. I will never be content with this team, especially in the era of the salary cap.

  136. Georges says:

    Woodguy:
    Georges,

    George do you have that spread sheet with all the correlations that you ran?

    stats.hockeyanalysis.com

    2015-16
    Forwards
    5v5
    On-ice goal stats
    All Teams
    Min 50 minutes played

    519 players
    Correlation of PDO with GF%: 0.89

    Happy to provide spreadsheet but it’s always good if someone else verifies. Let me know and I’ll upload and post a link.

  137. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    I’ve been privy to some interesting PP data recently.

    The QB(s) being opposite handed to the 2 main shooters seems to have a high correlation with high sh%.

    I’m sure puck movement/screens/tips also play a roll, but if you look at the best in the NHL right now, they follow this.

    Oilers PP1 was 10th-ish until RHS Letestu, who is a quick release shooter, joined that unit, then it’s vaulted to 2nd.

    CBJ has RHS Gagner as the bumper/shooter in the middle with RHS Atkinson being the main shooter while LHD Werenksi dictates the play.

    The only outlier at the top is ANA who has 4(!!) RHS on PP1.

    A few people have suggested that RHS score more on the PP in the NHL since a cross ice pass involves the goalies moving towards his blocker side (most goalies are left gloved) which effectively covers almost 1/2 of the area a goalie’s glove does.

    Agreed that PP is a skill and very transferable, but disagree on coaching. The best PP’s have off handed shooter from the QB and that’s up to the coach (PHI has LHS as main shooters becuase Giroux is a RHS QB)

    McLellan had 15, 42, 98 and 83 at his disposal to add as PP shooters when 14 wasn’t releasing shots fast enough and getting to the front of the net and didn’t.

    That Gord he added 55.

  138. Woodguy says:

    Georges: stats.hockeyanalysis.com

    2015-16
    Forwards
    5v5
    On-ice goal stats
    All Teams
    Min 50 minutes played

    519 players
    Correlation of PDO with GF%: 0.89

    Happy to provide spreadsheet but it’s always good if someone else verifies. Let me know and I’ll upload and post a link.

    it was the data from multiple years and correlation of various metrics to future GF%

    Would love a link, I know people who will verify

  139. wheatnoil says:

    godot10:
    Tracking stats analysis and possession/shot analysis actually sort of agree on Russell.

    Russell is good at defending (tracking stats analysis) but spends far to much time defending (possession/shot analysis).

    I’m going to pick on this one part of your post simply because it’s a type of statement I’ve seen repeated. It’s not reasonable to make a declaration that tracking stats like Russell. The point of tracking stats is to break down specific important skill sets. You can’t look good via “tracking stats”, you can only look good in certain skill sets and poor in others.

    So when I track zone exits, it’s not to replace result based analysis. It’s to take a look at one important skill set and see how that might drive a player’s results. Larsson, being poor at zone exits this year, is a problem but I wouldn’t say he looks poor via tracking stats. He’s poor at zone exits. That’s one input he is poor at. There are other inputs he does very well at. However, he’ll probably get better results if he’s not paired with another defender who is also poor at zone exits. The puck’s got to get out of the zone some how and if neither are very good at it, then the team will need to shift tactics to compensate for this or they have to be excellent at enough other inputs to make up for this deficiency. This might be one reason why Larsson’s generally done well with Klefbom but seemed to look poor with Russell this year. This year, Klefbom has done well with zone exits while Russell has been slightly below team average.

    It’s that kind of analysis where I think tracking has a role. In coaching tactics, ‘chemistry’, and in trying to drill down in to what specific inputs are more repeatable and which are more noise.

  140. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    spoiler: Totally agree with this.I always look at it for forwards, almost never for defensemen.

    Looking forward to your work next summer!

    I have found that looking at how Dmen effects Shots/corsi/fenwick for each Center to be informative.

    The overall RelCor is good, but it varies with each center which speaks to QoC and QoT.

    Vor’s right that it works best at the top because the very best Dman make everyone better, but the majority have spots/players that work better with what they do well.

    I try to break the key metrics per Center and that gives us a better feel for what a Dman does or doesn’t do well.

    Here’s an example: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/12/an-in-depth-look-at-oiler-dmen-at-23.html?m=1

    Also,

    It’s impossible with shot metrics to remove partner effects (one of the key reasons that micro-tracking is so interesting vis a vi Dmen)

  141. Woodguy says:

    Receptor Antagonist:
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    Halal is good enough to be a starter on half the teams in the NHL.

    I don’t think the Oilers can fit him under the cap though.

    Wonder if Peter would work out a swap involving Fayne though as both Halal and Fayne have 1 year left on term.

  142. VOR says:

    Hudson,

    I tried explaining this to GMoney once and completely. My partners gave me such a hard time. My AI program is building and testing an algorithm. It is teaching itself what is predictive of career outcomes for drafted players. I and all the other hockey fans I know are suggesting possible predictors and I and my team are trying to figure out how to make data on that variable available to the program.

    The program which we are calling Homer then runs a mock draft with that variable. Homer redrafts every year from 1979 to 2016 and looks for patterns against the box cars of drafted players. Then Homer runs the variable with a known predictor, say goals scored in the CHL in the draft eligible year and looks to see if the inclusion of the addition variable improves the known predictors effectiveness.

    As an example, one of the first hits, and believe me we call him Homer for a reason was that size as measured in weight listed at time of draft (which I think you get is seriously unreliable) significantly improved goals scored in the Q as a predictor of NHL games played goals scored, points scored, and penalty minutes, though not assists. The odd thing was that the effect washed out in the CHL as a whole and went negative in the WHL.

    We now have a list of predictors and what we are calling promoters. We are still looking for new predictive terms and statistics to test. If you have any ideas feel free to suggest them.

  143. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy: Halal is good enough to be a starter on half the teams in the NHL.

    I don’t think the Oilers can fit him under the cap though.

    Wonder if Peter would work out a swap involving Fayne though as both Halal and Fayne have 1 year left on term.

    I do love shawarma, after all.

  144. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: Davis Staples himself spent years lost at sea telling us how great of a winger Ryan Jones was based upon his contributions to scoring chance plus minus…because he had no way of acknowledging or factoring in QOC.

    Don’t forget that because Jones was on his ass in the ozone he wasn’t available to get a negative mark on the goal against.

  145. Lowetide says:

    Rasanen scored again for Finland, terrible tournament for the team but he has played well when I have been watching.

  146. Georges says:

    Woodguy: it was the data from multiple years and correlation of various metrics to future GF%

    Would love a link, I know people who will verify

    Here you go:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BzS6NFWIPv2tMGpqRXdTT1FiWG8

    I have notes in there to help people figure things out and recreate the data. Let me know if anything is confusing.

  147. Bling says:

    ashley,

    I find Larsson to be absolutely superb at making that 10-15 foot pass either after separating his man from the puck or when under duress. He does it extremely well against top opposition, which is something we haven’t had here for quite some time.

    He seems to be less effective, though, when he has time and space. I find that in those situations he tends to defer to his partner or dump it out. Is that a confidence thing?

    Wonderful player. I suspect there’s more to him, but we’ll see.

  148. Lowetide says:

    Bling:
    ashley,

    I find Larsson to be absolutely superb at making that 10-15 foot pass either after separating his man from the puck or when under duress. He does it extremely well against top opposition, which is something we haven’t had here for quite some time.

    He seems to be less effective, though, when he has time and space. I find that in those situations he tends to defer to his partner or dump it out. Is that a confidence thing?

    Wonderful player. I suspect there’s more to him, but we’ll see.

    As much as I liked Andrej Sekera in his first yearin Edmonton, he is markedly better this year. Suspect the same thing will happen with Larsson, as it often does when a player has more time to adjust. Someone mentioned Larsson looks better since the Christmas break, I had not noticed that, but maybe it is there.

    Either way, I think that kind of speaks to your confidence point.

  149. CrazyCoach says:

    Greetings Lowetideans near and far,

    I am excited about tonight.

    I finally get to see 97 live and I’m as giddy as seeing my first NHL game in March of 1980 when Gretzky was battling for the Art Ross with Marcel Dionne. My dad got me that ticket. Dad never was much of a hockey fan, but he loved me greatly and bought me a scalped ticket for a cost I imagine cost him an extra days work in the bush. However, as a dad now, I understand it more.

    Much has changed since then. This has been a great time after so many seasons of horrible management and long seasons. My wife and I were at last years new years game, with no 97 in the lineup, and the consolation was the busker in the LRT car singing, “Ring of Fire”. My wife and I have seen many meaningless games the last while.

    The last meaningful Oilers game I seen was March of 1988 when my uncle took me to PNE Coliseum to see the Oilers Vs Canucks, and those same Canucks break that streak.

    I’ve said countless times that I am going to enjoy every minute 97 plays in an Oilers uniform, and I am going to enjoy tonight.

    Stop by Section 222 and look for me in row 5 and say hi if you want.

    Happy New Year to you LT, and to everyone who makes this the best hockey blog, period!

  150. Georges says:

    Woodguy:

    You can mute us on twitter and skip my posts here or ask LT to ask me to stop posting.

    I’m going to assume this is drama. Please don’t stop posting. I look in on you on Twitter. I have no idea how you maintain level-headedness with the random and constant jostling that goes on there. Although, you do keep your elbows up too.

  151. Lowetide says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Greetings Lowetideans near and far,

    I am excited about tonight.

    I finally get to see 97 live and I’m as giddy as seeing my first NHL game in March of 1980 when Gretzky was battling for the Art Ross with Marcel Dionne.My dad got me that ticket.Dad never was much of a hockey fan, but he loved me greatly and bought me a scalped ticket for a cost I imagine cost him an extra days work in the bush.However, as a dad now, I understand it more.

    Much has changed since then.This has been a great time after so many seasons of horrible management and long seasons.My wife and I were at last years new years game, with no 97 in the lineup, and the consolation was the busker in the LRT car singing, “Ring of Fire”.My wife and I have seen many meaningless games the last while.

    The last meaningful Oilers game I seen was March of 1988 when my uncle took me to PNE Coliseum to see the Oilers Vs Canucks, and those same Canucks break that streak.

    I’ve said countless times that I am going to enjoy every minute 97 plays in an Oilers uniform, and I am going to enjoy tonight.

    Stop by Section 222 and look for me in row 5 and say hi if you want.

    Happy New Year to you LT, and to everyone who makes this the best hockey blog, period!

    You too, CC. Your Dad had his priorities just right, as I know you know. 🙂

  152. Woodguy says:

    ThatDog:
    Don’t be a camel, LT.

    I don’t agree with Staples on most anything, but his article makes some points that, as a man kneeling unapologetically at the throne of CorsiRel, you should read… He is saying nothing about your idol, only its distant cousin, Raw Corsi… Your guy Woodguy is, in my opinion, embarrassing himself on the tweet machine today.

    I’m an agnostic on a family vacation with my pastor brother-in-law.Exposing yourself to other points of view that directly contradict your own is uncomfortable but essential.

    I know you’re a pro. I’d suggest that you try to read the article, take some value, strengthen your argument, and see how your point of view comes out the other side.

    2 things

    1) I am not LT’s guy. I am my wife and daughter’s guy.

    2) Ok, I’ll bite:

    Here is every tweet I put out today in regards to the Staples thing. Tell me where I embarrassed myself.

    @dstaples David, No one uses raw corsi as a rating. No one except you. Why do you say that this is how people rate players using corsi?

    @dstaples What does this mean? Data captures everything that happened so it doesn’t have a correlation to winning at all, its just data.

    @madeincanada83 @tsnscottcullen Most analytics types (myself included) say he’s an above average 3rd pairing Dman & below average 2nd pair

    @madeincanada83 @tsnscottcullen No, because I value Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson and Nurse above him and they are all LHS.

    @madeincanada83 @tsnscottcullen depends on what you are looking at. Helps at some stuff, hurts at other stuff

    @madeincanada83 @tsnscottcullen overall he’s not helping as 2RD. May help at 2LD, would help at 3LD.

    @IbBK @Archaeologuy I even posted a screen shot of the section I was referring to. No one uses raw corsi as a rating.

    @IbBK @Archaeologuy I was pointing out something David wrote which is not representative of corsi analysis.

    @IbBK @Archaeologuy I don’t tell David how to enjoy hockey. I will point out errors and falsehoods when he publishes them and he did.

    @IbBK @Archaeologuy He characterized corsi analysis incorrectly and quite maliciously (imo). I don’t care if he uses it, but be honest.

    @dstaples @LOIL99 David, you are writing things that simply are not true. No on uses raw corsi to rate players.

    @IbBK @Archaeologuy Its this section that I disputed. No one using corsi analysis uses raw corsi to rate players. David made that up.

    “old ideas” – David, you know that you justify your error counting because Neilson did it 40 years ago right?

    @Jthompson2380 I don’t think any one stat does a good job. Even Truperformance’s number is an amalgamation of different metrics.

    @MacSapintosh @Archaeologuy @Jthompson2380 í explained it to him in detail why CF% isn’t a rating when I met him. I’d say he’s baiting us.

    @dstaples I read a ton of this stuff David and no one does.

    @dstaples Its information and what happened, not a grade.

    @dstaples Ok, can you point me to those who say Nic Shore is the best center in the NHL?

    @dstaples There is value in the information David. It is not a rating of the player.

    @dstaples there is a world of difference in tweets and analytical articles

    @dstaples í read a lot of fancystats articles. No one does that

    And I also posted a screen shot of this because 140 characters is too short:
    .
    .

    Micro-stats tracker: “Kris Russell makes a lot of positive defensive plays”

    Me: “I agree, when in the position to defend, he’s a good defender”

    MST: “We therefore rate him highly as a defender”

    Me: “What about the fact that when he’s on the ice his teams defend more because they are in the defensive zone more than when he’s off the ice, and despite his good defensive play the opposition teams scores more when he’s on the ice because they have the puck more?”

    MST: “Corsi is dumb”

    Which is the embarrassing part?

  153. Lowetide says:

    Bakersfield is in San Jose tonight to play the Barracuda. Lander, Khaira, Slepyshev are having terrific runs.

    http://theahl.com/player-stats?team=402&season=54&statsType=standard&position=skaters

  154. Woodguy says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Greetings Lowetideans near and far,

    I am excited about tonight.

    I finally get to see 97 live and I’m as giddy as seeing my first NHL game in March of 1980 when Gretzky was battling for the Art Ross with Marcel Dionne.My dad got me that ticket.Dad never was much of a hockey fan, but he loved me greatly and bought me a scalped ticket for a cost I imagine cost him an extra days work in the bush.However, as a dad now, I understand it more.

    Much has changed since then.This has been a great time after so many seasons of horrible management and long seasons.My wife and I were at last years new years game, with no 97 in the lineup, and the consolation was the busker in the LRT car singing, “Ring of Fire”.My wife and I have seen many meaningless games the last while.

    The last meaningful Oilers game I seen was March of 1988 when my uncle took me to PNE Coliseum to see the Oilers Vs Canucks, and those same Canucks break that streak.

    I’ve said countless times that I am going to enjoy every minute 97 plays in an Oilers uniform, and I am going to enjoy tonight.

    Stop by Section 222 and look for me in row 5 and say hi if you want.

    Happy New Year to you LT, and to everyone who makes this the best hockey blog, period!

    Have fun CC!

  155. Lowetide says:

    The Penguins are teaching Montreal’s coach about the value of the forward pass. Fun times!

  156. Woodguy says:

    Georges: I’m going to assume this is drama. Please don’t stop posting. I look in on you on Twitter. I have no idea how you maintain level-headedness with the random and constant jostling that goes on there. Although, you do keep your elbows up too.

    Ha!

    What’s your handle on twitter?

    Yeah, twitter is funny.

    You have to have thick skin if you take an unpopular stand.

    I don’t think LT will ask me to quit posting, he allows all kinds of opinions here as long as its respectful, so its not a “drama post”

    I’m just tired of people telling me how to enjoy hockey.

    This is the way I enjoy it.

    If its not your bag, that’s fine, but don’t whine at me for it.

    No one is forcing anyone to listen or read.

  157. Lowetide says:

    Tyler Vesel went 1-1-2 tonight for Omaha (NCAA). He is now 20gp, 9-14-23 in what is easily his best college season (this is his junior year).

  158. Woodguy says:

    Georges: Here you go:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BzS6NFWIPv2tMGpqRXdTT1FiWG8

    I have notes in there to help people figure things out and recreate the data. Let me know if anything is confusing.

    Awesome!

    Thanks!

  159. The Hermit says:

    Woodguy: Halal is good enough to be a starter

    Halal, I don’t know if that’s kosher.

  160. frjohnk says:

    CrazyCoach: I’ve said countless times that I am going to enjoy every minute 97 plays in an Oilers uniform, and I am going to enjoy tonight.

    Awesome. You say this more than most and you are definitely right.

    Enjoy the game.

  161. Woodguy says:

    Andrew Berkshire, who has a dog in the fight (he works for a a competing mirco-stats firm) :

    Andrew Berkshire ‏@AndrewBerkshire 1m1 minute ago
    @alanhull @Woodguy55 Obviously I have a bias on this subject so I try not to talk much about competing stat companies. But they’re snake oil

  162. Woodguy says:

    The Hermit: Halal, I don’t know if that’s kosher.

    Its funny because I read that and thought I’d make a similar comment or mention how much I like kafta, but I didn’t say that.

    Weird that its attributed to me.

  163. prairieschooner says:

    I read “Thatdog”s post and found it an unnecessary attack on LT
    He used a number of writing techniques to try and suggest that he was not attacking but he was.
    Starting out with a camel reference ….why?
    then a “with all due respect ” type comment, which we all know means…..
    Then a bunch of “clever” words to attempt to soften or disguise his attacks
    An attack on Woodguy? There are a number of frequent posters on this site that we all enjoy and appreciate.Why slam Woodguy in a post to LT ?
    Lowetide is not responsible for Woodguy

    Go Oilers

  164. CrazyCoach says:

    frjohnk: Awesome.You say this more than most and you are definitely right.

    Enjoy the game.

    Thank you. Mrs. CC and I will enjoy. Can see the rink now from my room and getting excited to go

  165. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy: Its funny because I read that and thought I’d make a similar comment or mention how much I like kafta, but I didn’t say that.

    Weird that its attributed to me.

    I did try with the shawarma comment, at least. 😉

    Although you do seem to miss my plays. 😛

  166. Professor Q says:

    Jets are being outworked by the Islanders tonight, and the Islanders only just now got a PP.

    Enjoying a quiet night on New Year’s Eve, watching the game later on; so glad it’s on Sportsnet! Verrrry slow Internet out here in Rural Ontario (don’t worry, I watch GameCentre – nothing against ye scurvy dogs, of course).

  167. Bling says:

    Lowetide,

    Not sure if you have checked out Sean Tierny’s work (Charting Hockey), but he has a stat called expected plus minus. If you haven’t, I suggest checking out Wheat’s twitter account, it’s somewhere on there in chart form.

    Klef and Larsson show very well by this metric. Klef is actually spectacular (close to tops in the NHL; 2nd if memory serves), but Larsson is also a legit top pairing D.

    How crazy is it that we’re talking about them getting better, when they are already a legit top pairing right now?

    This whole having good defencemen thing is fun 🙂

  168. The Hermit says:

    Woodguy,

    This website has a few bugs 😗

  169. Professor Q says:

    Bling,

    This is why I worry about trading Klefbom for Duchene or Landeskog.

  170. frjohnk says:

    Bling:
    Lowetide,

    Not sure if you have checked out Sean Tierny’s work (Charting Hockey), but he has a stat called expected plus minus. If you haven’t, I suggest checking out Wheat’s twitter account, it’s somewhere on there in chart form.

    Klef and Larsson show very well by this metric. Klef is actually spectacular (close to tops in the NHL; 2nd if memory serves), but Larsson is also a legit top pairing D.

    How crazy is it that we’re talking about them getting better, when they are already a legit top pairing right now?

    This whole having good defencemen thing is fun

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/2017.html
    has the same thing. You will have to scroll down to “skater advanced stats” chart and you will find E+- 3rd last stat on the right

    Guess the Dman at the bottom of the Oilers list.

  171. McSorley33 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Adam is now 24 years old and has been in the NHL since 2011.

    We are very near the halfway point in his first season with the Oilers and he has 6 points.

    At this point, He is what he is.

    Nothing wrong with that….but let’s not kid ourselves about his ceiling.

  172. frjohnk says:

    Professor Q:
    Bling,

    This is why I worry about trading Klefbom for Duchene or Landeskog.

    While Sekera has been our best Dman this year, Klefbom is our only hope to having a river pusher from the backend. He has many of the tools and one hopes with more experience he can be that guy for us on the backend.

    I have no problem trading Klefbom, just as long as the value is there. Id trade him for a young RHD with similar value.

  173. Professor Q says:

    frjohnk,

    I really don’t understand these numbers yet (I know, I know; I’ve had 11 years to learn…), but I really love how well Benning and Davidson are doing in most categories. And Fayne…

  174. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy: You can mute us on twitter and skip my posts here or ask LT to ask me to stop posting.

    I wasn’t thinking about you when I made the comment above. I can see that you have both joy in the Oilers’ successes and are also critical when moves are made that you view as bad. I’m fine with that. That’s how we should be. There are, however, a handful of people who seem to be only negative no matter what happens. Those are the people I’m thinking of. And those are the people that I should probably just mute on Twitter.

  175. frjohnk says:

    Professor Q:
    frjohnk,

    I really don’t understand these numbers yet (I know, I know; I’ve had 11 years to learn…), but I really love how well Benning and Davidson are doing in most categories. And Fayne…

    NYE advanced stats crash course.

    If its over 50 or + = good
    If its under 50 or – = bad

  176. OilClog says:

    All I know is speed doesn’t beat the Kings, helps them win cups.

  177. Georges says:

    Woodguy:
    Re: Truperformance

    David mis-represented corsi analysis again and that was my biggest issue with the piece.

    Werenka said two things that made me raise a Spockian eyebrow:

    1) Vlasic is a 2nd tier Dman.By eye and by numbers he’s been elite for years.Team Canada 3 Olys in a row I think.

    Anyone who rates Vlasic as 2nd tier immediately doesn’t pass the smell test

    2) His metrics are correlated 81% with winning hockey games.Individual games are chaotic and subject to a ridiculous amount of variance.Some smarter than me have figured that hockey has a theoretical limit of 62% correlation with total events on the ice.

    Someone claiming 81% should set off sirens like Homer trying to purchase the Ultimate Behemoth at Bob’s RV Round Up.

    Did you see my first post on this? They can have that high a correlation if their metric is a proxy for PDO. Werenka’s saying players own their PDO results, fancystats folks say they don’t.

  178. stush18 says:

    Pescador: Honestly, I think this is the best we can hope for.
    Sign Russell with a NMC then expose Maroon & Davidson?
    Are Fking kidding me?

    No I’m not fucking kidding.

    You sign Russell to something WITHOUT a NMC, and expose Russell, Davidson.

    If you go 7-3-1 you’re protecting maroon, obviously.

    So if you read my post, you’re exposing on of your 3ld and keeping the other. And I don’t know if Russell isn’t picked over Davidson. Davidson may still be a well kept secret.

  179. frjohnk says:

    McSorley33:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Adam is now 24 years old and has been in the NHL since 2011.

    We are very near the halfway point in his first season with the Oilers and he has 6 points.

    At this point, He is what he is.

    Nothing wrong with that….but let’s not kid ourselves about his ceiling.

    One way to look at Larsson so we dont get disappointed is if we look at who is an elite number 1 right handed Dman
    Drew Doughty
    and then look at right handed Dman who is a good number 6 ( I may Gryba too high here,)
    Eric Gryba

    Adam Larsson is nowhere close to Doughty so he is not a number 1 or number 2 Dman, but he is significantly better than Eric Gryba. For what he brings to the team compared to those two, he is probably in the middle of those two. Ive always( this year looking at a bunch of stats) figured he was a number 3. Some think he is a number 2, others think he is a number 4 Dman. Whatever one thinks, he is a top 4 Dmen, which in past years, seemed to evade this team.

    I love how physical and nasty he is. I believe he can better in transitioning the puck with his passes and there should be more offense ( only 6 points so far) But coming from the Devils system to the Oilers could be the equivelant of coming from a different league. OK, not that bad, but these two teams play quite differently, so there will definitely be an adjustment. I’m looking forward to him having a better second half and a great Oiler career.

  180. JDï™ says:

    Malkin – now that’s a one-timer!

  181. OilClog says:

    Friedman just called Edmonton fast, speed prevails

  182. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I just wanted to chime in from the Tucson Roadrunners game and wish all the Lowetide family a happy and safe new year tonight. If you have a few to drink tonight get a lift home.

    Any of you are welcome to come down for a bit of sun in Arizona and watch an AHL game with me, maybe even against the Condors.

    I am sitting next to my best friend since junior high who is a Canuck fan and oncologist down here…but go Oilers go!!

  183. Gerta Rauss says:

    A lot of chasing in the first few minutes

    Maybe this PP will get them into the game

  184. Lowetide says:

    Boys starting a little loose here.

  185. hunter1909 says:

    It’s New year’s Eve and the Oilers are playing good hockey.

    *climbs back on bandwagon*

  186. JonyPro says:

    I’m loving that Maroon-Nuge-Draisaitl line.

  187. Lowetide says:

    Power play is good, though.

  188. jp says:

    Holy! Those were some nice chances by the PP2.

  189. BeerMe says:

    Close call, could see it go either way

  190. Yak Efron says:

    A 50/50 call goes the Oilers way???

    The sky’s the limit now boys.

  191. Lowetide says:

    a monumentally weird play by Leon down low.

  192. JDï™ says:

    Seems like a lot of O-zone time, but not any quality chances. Meanwhile the Nucks attack with porpoise.

  193. Lowetide says:

    15-15 Corsis 5×5 after one, Edmonton with the edge in shots 14-9.

  194. Lowetide says:

    Bling:
    Lowetide,

    Not sure if you have checked out Sean Tierny’s work (Charting Hockey), but he has a stat called expected plus minus. If you haven’t, I suggest checking out Wheat’s twitter account, it’s somewhere on there in chart form.

    Klef and Larsson show very well by this metric. Klef is actually spectacular (close to tops in the NHL; 2nd if memory serves), but Larsson is also a legit top pairing D.

    How crazy is it that we’re talking about them getting better, when they are already a legit top pairing right now?

    This whole having good defencemen thing is fun 🙂

    Love the Tierny, he does brilliant work.

  195. Gerta Rauss says:

    JDï™:
    Seems like a lot of O-zone time, but not any quality chances. Meanwhile the Nucks attack with porpoise.

    They played a whale of a first period

  196. Zelepukin says:

    JDï™:
    Seems like a lot of O-zone time, but not any quality chances. Meanwhile the Nucks attack with porpoise.

    Ya could have been down 0-3 if it weren’t for some lucky bounces and Talbot.

    Really getting frustrated with our inability to get the McD line to break out with possession. It never happens. Ebs is too soft along the boards and Lucic has meat hands. McD usually flies the zone early because he is being shadowed so he is almost never an outlet for the D. I don’t know what other solution there is than just having more mobile, faster wingers.

  197. hunter1909 says:

    JDï™: Meanwhile the Nucks attack with porpoise.

    Canucks have that 2001 Oilers vs Dallas Stars look about them tonight. They will have to play a perfect game to win.

    Oilers can coast until Disraitl knocks one in from a fluke play.

  198. hunter1909 says:

    Zelepukin: Ebs is too soft along the boards and Lucic has meat hands. McD usually flies the zone early because he is being shadowed so he is almost never an outlet for the D. I don’t know what other solution there is than just having more mobile, faster wingers.

    Eberle is terrible for McDavid, but McLellan refuses to accept reality.

    Eberle needs to switch with whoever plays RW on the 2nd line. Play everyone with McDavid until something clicks. This isn’t rocket science.

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