THREADS

There are several threads of ideas running around my brain tonight, so I thought it might be an idea to write them down. None of these is obvious, or will happen, but circumstances have collected them and we are here. Let’s consider a few items of note and a pressure point or two:

  • Anton Slepyshev has been in the minors for 20 days now. He has played in eight games, and gone 7-3-10 for the Bakersfield Condors. I think the Oilers miss his speed, and the current RWs are not posting offense at this time.
  • Benoit Pouliot is probably deeper in the doghouse today than he was this time yesterday, courtesy the pass that lead to a goal in Columbus (Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to play off-wing).
  • Jesse Puljujarvi is about to spend the day of Game 40 on the NHL roster, thus burning a year of RFA rights. If Peter Chiarelli plans to Leon JP, he has to do it in the coming hours.
  • Matt Nieto was placed on waivers by the San Jose Sharks this morning.
  • Anton Khudobin was placed on waivers by the Boston Bruins this morning.

There are real and logical reasons to expect nothing happens tomorrow, but it is also possible we see Puljujarvi and Slepyshev change location, Benoit Pouliot sees waivers and Nieto or Khudobin claimed off waivers.

  • I think the least likely is the Slepyshev-Puljujarvi switch—because it could/should have happened today if it was going to happen at all.
  • The Pouliot issue has no pressure point at all, no reason to waive him beyond a fit of pique. That said, if the coach has had it, perhaps we do see a break in the coming days and a transaction. I am not suggesting this is a good idea, by the way, just reading the tea leaves.
  • Matt Nieto is a two-way winger who got his NHL start under Todd McLellan in San Jose. He is not a big winger, but has some offensive ability and defensive acumen. He has posted good possession numbers, does not have a big contract, and can help on the PK.
  • Anton Khudobin is not having an especially good season, doubt there is a tremendous difference between him and Jonas Gustavsson in terms of performance this season.

WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

I would keep Pouliot in the lineup, send JP down, recall Slepyshev and God help me ride the wild Gustavsson until Brossoit is ready. What about you?

 

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82 Responses to "THREADS"

  1. stevezie says:

    I don’t like the Hall trade one bit, but i get what he was doing.

    I have no idea what is going on with the rw this season. JP, the waivers not traveled, all of it. What is the upside? What is the goal?

  2. Bruce Wayne says:

    stevezie:
    I don’t like the Hall trade one bit, but i get what he was doing.

    I have no idea what is going on with the rw this season. JP, the waivers not traveled, all of it. What is the upside? What is the goal?

    It means they don’t care about, or are even thinking about, the future.

  3. haters says:

    Claim Neito, assign pou and gusto to minors, recall slepy and LB, and start looking for a trade partner for Ebs but don’t trade unless getting decent value back.

    Kick tires on Trouba again, see what it would take .

  4. square_wheels says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Wait, what ? We wildly agreed this summer that we go hard now before Connor gets 100M. Now we’re hedging for some distant future ?

  5. who says:

    Bruce Wayne: It means they don’t care about, or are even thinking about, the future.

    My sense is the opposite. It almost seems to me that they are more focused on next year than this year. I think they will take the wins this year but they are being very careful about exposing first or second year players too high up in the batting order. Even if some of those players look like the best option to us.
    Also the constant juggling of lines makes this season look like one big lab experiment. I think Chia is still making decisions on some veterans and tmac is going out of his way to really ease some guys into the lineup ,but at the nhl level. Very difficult balancing act in my opinion.

  6. Centre of attention says:

    Benson hurt. Not playing tonight.

    Not good. Hopefully its not long term.

  7. anjinsan says:

    Getting very tired of…
    1) McLellan’s not know what lines to play, his endless churning, his snap judgments
    2) Not seeing Puljujarvi playing somewhere….WTF!

    LT — you’ve worried about RNH and Eberle…consider that the Hall trade broke their espirit de corps.
    I don’t know whether this is true, but where is the fire in those two? I think Chiarelli has had desperate pressure to win now with McDavid being Katz’s coveted golden goose.

  8. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m wondering what’s up with the Drew Remenda hate expressed here and other sites. What does he do that is so annoying? I don’t think it’s fair to say he doesn’t provide insightful commentary because virtually none of the broadcasters do. The panel in between periods offers zero insight and I don’t see people calling for their heads. Even the analysts we here on radio are blah. In fact, Ray Ferraro is the only guy I hear who consistently says interesting and enlightening things. Maguire, Friedman, Kypreos, Spector et al rarely say anything interesting and they all pull the party line. Remenda is no better but I hardly think he’s so bad that I would actively advocate he be fired.

  9. square_wheels says:

    And we also agreed that players like Sleppy needed to kick out the jams in the AHL. So he’s had a 10 game run, great.

    He’ll be up at the deadline, if not sooner. This is the first run he’s had when healthy and scoring regularly. Bringing him up to play 8min – no, no, no.

  10. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    This thread is all over the place already. Should be an interesting off night! 🙂

  11. Younger Oil says:

    I always try my best not to create drama on this site because I believe it is one of the most civil, intellectual places on the internet, certainly pertaining to Oilers hockey. What I’m about to say will likely come across as dramatic, unproductive, and argumentative but I feel like it needs to be said.

    LT just wrote a great article about what is on his mind, laying the ground for some great discussion topics this evening that are current and up to the date.

    Seemingly without even reading the article, people immediately start talking about the Taylor Hall trade.

    This topic has been discussed to death, it happened almost half a year ago, and people are still arguing about it in over half of the posts that LT writes. We already know everybody’s position on it, nothing is going to change, and everything that could be talked about pertaining to the trade has been talked about. This has been true for months, yet people feel compelled to talk about it to show how smart they are thinking that the Hall trade was a failure on a daily basis.

    Get over yourselves, seriously. It’s turning the comments section into a dreary, repetitive cesspool. Not even discussing the article that LT worked hard to get out to repeat your opinion for the 376th time is downright disrespectful. If you want to talk about the Taylor Hall trade daily, make your own blog, or create a subreddit.

    The Oilers are the highest they have been in the standings in a decade. Let’s talk about that.

    You want to be negative? Since December 8th, McDavid has only put up 0.5 points per game. Let’s talk about that. Something new for once.

    Be current. Be original. Be respectful to the owner of this blog. That’s all I ask.

    Now, having said that…

    ________________________________________________________

    -Slepyshev and Lander should definitely be on the NHL roster, Caggiula and Puljujarvi desperately need AHL time to gain more experience in professional hockey. Khaira in for Hendricks would also likely be a positive move.

    -Pouliot shouldn’t be waived, but he also shouldn’t be gifted top 6 ice time when he has been consistently bad.

    -I’d pass on Nieto and Khudobin, but believe that this team does need a trade or waiver claim soon to shake things up a bit.

  12. Georges says:

    Eric Tulsky wrote an article in 2013 on shooting percentage:

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/13/4427522/shooting-percentage-regression

    He selected players who played at least 2500 minutes from 07-08 to 09-10 and 2500 minutes from 10-11 to 12-13. He determined that the correlation of their shooting percentage in the first 3 years with the shooting percentage in the next 3 years was only 0.33. Here’s how he interpreted that:

    So there is no groundbreaking news here. The laws of arithmetic apply to hockey. In any measurement where the repeatability is not extremely high, predictions can be improved by regressing to the mean — that’s pretty much what a low repeatability means, after all.

    Here’s what I see:

    1. When you’re making inferences from a sample to a population, you need to be sure that the sample represents the population. In this case, based on TOI and an average 2.4 GF60, the sample is made up of top-tier players who played consistently high minutes for 6 years. Whatever you discover about this group may not apply to the majority of NHL players.

    2. The correlation of 0.33 is low but it’s also statistically significant given the number of players included in the sample. Tulsky takes away that shooting percentage has low repeatability. I take away that even in this group of top players, there appears to be some detectable difference in shooting percentage results (talent) over large stretches of time.

    3. Does shooting percentage vary by time on ice? Do players that are not in this sample have the same average shooting percentage? Let’s look at 5v5 sh% for forwards in this season so far. Let’s group the forwards based on 100-minute blocks of TOI. So Group 0 has played 0-99 minutes, Group 1 has played 100-199 minutes, etc.

    Group, average sh%
    0 6.47
    1 5.90
    2 6.76
    3 7.11
    4 7.87
    5+ 8.36

    This pattern in shooting percentage doesn’t quite seem random. Either sh% gets rewarded with ice time or coaches seem to be doing a pretty good job of assigning ice time according to sh%, that is, they’re pretty good at chasing PDO. Also, the numbers suggest the players left out of Tulsky’s sample may have had a lower average shooting percentage, i.e., they had less talent.

    The NHL seems to sort out talent through TOI (or TOI through talent). In his article, Tulsky looked at the top end of TOI and concluded that there are no significant differences in talent.

    There’s a lot to learn from TOI. Anyone who’s interested should check how other metrics (CF60, CF%, GF60, sv% etc.) do with this analysis over different time periods.

    ———————————–

    *edit: By this, Anton Lander has been unjustly banished. He was running hot. Although that might have had a lot to do with playing with Pitlick, who was running even hotter.

  13. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I’m trying to watch this 18yr old rec hockey game. God this is a hard tournament to get excited about now.

    Somethings changed for me when it comes to the World Jr’s, maybe the analysis to death is causing it .

    Don’t know, but have no emotional investment in these tournaments.

    This summers was no different.

    Best of 7 or nothing for this guy.

  14. Bruce Wayne says:

    Younger Oil,

    The only person to make a comment about the Hall trade (and yes I read steviezie’s post, which was not about the Hall trade) was you.

    But just for you, I promise to bring it up tomorrow.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Questions in the previous thread about blog history, here goes:

    1998: Lowetide finds hfboards, meets Kim Gernack and forms an online relationship with a bunch of fun people.
    2004: Lowetide finds out blogger is free, begins blogging
    2007: Lowetide thinks he is deleting one post (about Ales Hemsky), deletes blog.
    2007: Lowetide starts new blog, which is here.

  16. square_wheels says:

    Thomas Chabot is one of the best skating D I’ve seen in a while.

    Ottawa has a beauty, too bad he’s left handed 😃

  17. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    2017 : Lowetide starts talking in the 3rd person and wears a cape at work !!!

  18. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Younger Oil,

    Woah. That was a tad unexpected. I think the first post was the only one up there that was actually relevant to LT’s post. And stevezie seemed to just be his usual somewhat sarcastic self in alluding to the Hall talk. I thought it was clever, even if not super funny, and not really disrespectful to the host.

    The great thing about this place is people coming in to tell us about their Russell post that does not relate to Pouliot or JP or someone has a new whisky he or she likes. I sometimes talk about markets or photography and lord knows that is not relevant to LT’s posts at all.

    I think the majority of us appreciates very much what he does and also the way this place is like Cheers in that everyone knows your name and you get to be you (or whoever you want to pretend to be) so long as you don’t offend others.

    With refernece to your post, I, too would pass on Nieto and Khudhobin. I think there are better internal options without going there.

    I would not be averse to a Gustavsson plus pick trade to upgrade the G spot by dealing with a team that is out of the race.

  19. Oil Fan 99 says:

    With rumours that the Avalanche may trade MacKinnon could/should the Oilers build a package based around JP?

  20. JDï™ says:

    Oil Fan 99: Avalanche may trade MacKinnon

    The last I heard from Friedmann was that their big Finn and MacK were off limits, but they would listen to offers for Duchene and were not going to give him away.

  21. Bruce Wayne says:

    Georges,

    Good stuff. Another way of saying what you’ve said is that NHL players are, by and large, already selected for shooting ability and hence we shouldn’t be surprised that there is low variance in the ability. Moreover, despite being selected for the ability that there is nonetheless evidence for the contrary hypothesis, that the skill is real.

    I agree with all of this. The caveat is that a) even high shooting % players regress beyond a certain point and b) when we talk about PDO we are talking at the team level, and by and large high shooting percentage teams are not doing it with players with a history of high shooting percentage, if you break it down player by player.

  22. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    There is a Co-op liquor store that just popped up beside the Petroleum Club in downtown Calgary, but it’s 100% whiskey.

    I was Buddy the Elf when he finds Santa !!!!

    And the youngsters at work asked – “Co-op sells booze ?”

    My response – “Co-op sells not only booze they sell cattle squeezes, 22 shells, work clothes, groceries, lumber, diapers……pretty much anything a guy really needs”.

  23. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: 2007: Lowetide thinks he is deleting one post (about Ales Hemsky), deletes blog.

    Oh boy can I relate – I once copied my backup file over my working file for a very large test report (~200 pages), losing several days work. I put in two long days, and didn’t bill the hours because I felt like a dolt.

  24. MrEd says:

    Lowetide,

    Weird. I found your blog because of Curtis Glencross (GlenX).

  25. Zelepukin says:

    square_wheels:
    Thomas Chabot is one of the best skating D I’ve seen in a while.

    Ottawa has a beauty, too bad he’s left handed

    Man, going from watching what it takes to be the best team in the NHL with Columbus, to watching World Juniors, is night and day. It’s like every puck decision with the Juniors is high risk. It’s highly entertaining but wow, non-stop turn-overs, open coverage and no-look passes. It’s not sloppy hockey but you can see how making the jump from junior to the NHL is so much harder nowadays.

  26. MrEd says:

    GlenX earned himself more from the Edmonton Oilers:)

  27. Centre of attention says:

    Oil Fan 99:
    With rumours that the Avalanche may trade MacKinnon could/should the Oilers build a package based around JP?

    yes. I would add to JP. This years first and any LHD you want.

    Mackinnon is a once-in-a-life-time type of opportunity.

    You run Mackinnon with McDavid and you profit. End of story.

    (Knowing our luck Calgary will trade an underperforming Monahan for Mackinnon, lol)

  28. square_wheels says:

    Zelepukin,

    I mentioned to someone tonight that this is glorified red hockey with a lot of body contact.

  29. Jaxon says:

    Send PJ down, bring Slepyshev up. Put Pouliot on McDavid’s line (yup). Sign Nieto. Ride Gustavsson until Ellis is ready. Try like hell to pry Kyle Wood out of Arizona.

    Arizona pending UFAs: Hanzal, Vrbata, Doan, Stone, White.

    Pouliot, Reinhart, Davidson, Fayne and a 3rd Round Pick for Wood, 4th Round pick, and 2 or 3 of their pending UFAs??

  30. kinger_OIL says:

    – You know LT this is a great post. We are at a time of the season that the team is what it is pretty much is (save trades), which is a possible seeded team or a dangerous 1st round opponent

    – The most encouraging thing of your post is that we are finally again a team where we can actually call out bona-fide NHL players on the roster.

    – We can point our AHLers that we might think are for real more deserving than NHLers

    – We finally have a 1st rounder who isn’t being played a lot, and rather than worry about his production, we are fretting about optimal development (and not whether he is boom or bust)

    – We aren’t looking at the waiver seeing guys who are for sure better than ours

    – We are talking in your posts about trades where we are the team getting immediately better

    – Now ALL we have to do is replace and find better NHL players (and/or more effective players and/or better contracts), lather, rinse repeat untill we finally get to a Cup-roster. 1-2 years out?

    – We aren’t that far, and with some luck/trades/improvement do a lot of damage this season

    * we are a better team by far than the pre-Pronger trade season Oilers… It could happen…

  31. JDï™ says:

    square_wheels:
    Zelepukin,

    I mentioned to someone tonight that this is glorified red hockey with a lot of body contact.

    Yeah, jeez – why can’t these teenagers execute like Patrice Bergeron and Jere Lehtinen?

  32. MrEd says:

    JP is something. This organization has to get this right.

  33. MrEd says:

    Jari Kurri.
    Born to hockey.

  34. Scungilli says:

    Oil Fan 99:
    With rumours that the Avalanche may trade MacKinnon could/should the Oilers build a package based around JP?

    Anybody but McDavid wins that trade for the Oilers, no brainer.

  35. theDjdj says:

    Pouliot is so far in the doghouse they’ve built in a basement. I find it surprising given the type of player he is.

    If he were playing with another team I’d be reading a random thought about how we should trade for him.

    Is there anybody in the building bundling into Chiarelli’s office with spreadsheets, explaining the broader view?

  36. YKOil says:

    Agreed re: keep Pouliot in the lineup, send JP down, recall Slepyshev. Would also send down Caggiula.

    Okay with Gustavsson but would trade him for Khudobin. Cash and cap win for the Bruins so I think they could/would be interested.

    Nieto would be a decent pick-up and the 50 man limit doesn’t mean much right now as the trade deadline is when Chia should clean up a bit (Hendricks, et al) regardless. Would rather they bring up Slepyshev or Khaira though.

    Remain skeptical of what I would want from Colorado’s roster – given the price points of the usual suspects – and remain tied to my push for an Iggy/Meloche pick-up BUT, depending on what my analytics and pro-scouts said, could be interested in Blake Comeau.

    RH player who plays LW (?: would want to know more about this) and, from what I have looked at, player tough(er) opposition so the thinking is Comeau could maybe take a spot on the RW for us. May be room for a Pouliot for Comeau deal here though, to my mind, I don’t like it.

    [Edit to add] .. The future right wing for McDavid is JP in my mind but if Arizona starts selling I want Reider – I think he has the speed and smarts to play with McDavid right now and think he would make the best superstar-paired-with-non-superstar centre-wing combo the Oilers have had since the days for Gretzky/Tikkanen… just be looking for a ‘Kurri’ to finish the set.

  37. dustrock says:

    Send down Puljujarvi.

    Claim Nieto (he won’t make it to Edmonton).

    Play Pouliot with McDavid even if it’s just a Las Vegas Prestige.

    See which d-man you can get from Anaheim. They have Bieksa who ain’t going nowhere, Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen, Manson, and Montour and Theodore. We thought Fowler would be the one to go but could we circle back to Vatanen as a 2nd pairing and PP 1 option? Surely Anaheim doesn’t want to lose any of these D prospects for nothing to LV.

  38. YKOil says:

    dustrock:
    See which d-man you can get from Anaheim. They have Bieksa who ain’t going nowhere, Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen, Manson, and Montour and Theodore. We thought Fowler would be the one to go but could we circle back to Vatanen as a 2nd pairing and PP 1 option? Surely Anaheim doesn’t want to lose any of these D prospects for nothing to LV.

    The road to Montour, or Vatanen, has always led through Stoner imo. Pick up that salary as well and the doors open in Anaheim (imo).

    Vatanen/Stoner represents $8.125 million for the next two years. They liked Pouliot at one point so maybe Pouliot and the 1st and…

  39. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention: yes. I would add to JP. This years first and any LHD you want.

    Mackinnon is a once-in-a-life-time type of opportunity.

    You run Mackinnon with McDavid and you profit. End of story.

    (Knowing our luck Calgary will trade an underperforming Monahan for Mackinnon, lol)

    I thought it was Duchene and possibly Landeskog, not MacKinnon? I believe they ruled MacKinnon out, full-stop.

    I’d try for trading Eberle for Duchene, maybe. As has been discussed lately. Try to get Iginla, Duchene, and Barrie for Eberle, Pouliot, Klefbom (I hesitate to trade Klefbom though)?

  40. Georges says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Georges,

    Good stuff.Another way of saying what you’ve said is that NHL players are, by and large, already selected for shooting ability and hence we shouldn’t be surprised that there is low variance in the ability.Moreover, despite being selected for the ability that there is nonetheless evidence for the contrary hypothesis, that the skill is real.

    I agree with all of this.The caveat is that a) even high shooting % players regress beyond a certain point and b) when we talk about PDO we are talking at the team level, and by and large high shooting percentage teams are not doing it with players with a history of high shooting percentage, if you break it down player by player.

    Appreciate it, Bruce. A friend of mine told me he once played a recreational game with Raffi Torres. Raffi made everyone else on the ice look foolish. His hockey talents seemed immense. In the NHL, Raffi had to employ a different skill set (giving people concussions) to keep playing.

    It seems obvious that there is a skill distribution in the NHL. When someone is talking about a player regressing to the mean, you have to ask which mean: the global mean or the player’s mean? How do you know a player’s mean? Very tricky. But when you see coaches assigning time rationally in the aggregate, maybe not so tricky. I haven’t drilled down too much. Maybe this is an artifact of winning, i.e., winning teams = stable lines.

    a) Again, the problem here is determining a player’s skill distribution from limited data. Compounding the problem is that the distribution isn’t stationary. It’ll be affected by the player’s age, usage, teammates, and opponents. But, yes, when you see a very high number, you should predict that the subsequent number will be lower. When you see a very low number, you should predict that the player won’t play as much in the future. Because there are always newer players.

    b) That’s very interesting. Hunch?

  41. Georges says:

    Lowetide:
    Questions in the previous thread about blog history, here goes:

    1998: Lowetide finds hfboards, meets Kim Gernack and forms an online relationship with a bunch of fun people.
    2004: Lowetide finds out blogger is free, begins blogging
    2007: Lowetide thinks he is deleting one post (about Ales Hemsky), deletes blog.
    2007: Lowetide starts new blog, which is here.

    That’s what you get for trying to delete Hemsky.

    The oldest post I can find on this blog is from 2009. I commented a few weeks back that you’ve yet to post a playoff game day thread. I’m assuming that’s wrong?

  42. treevojo says:

    Younger Oil:
    I always try my best not to create drama on this site because I believe it is one of the most civil, intellectual places on the internet, certainly pertaining to Oilers hockey. What I’m about to say will likely come across as dramatic, unproductive, and argumentative but I feel like it needs to be said.

    LT just wrote a great article about what is on his mind, laying the ground for some great discussion topics this evening that are current and up to the date.

    Seemingly without even reading the article, people immediately start talking about the Taylor Hall trade.

    This topic has been discussed to death, it happened almost half a year ago, and people are still arguing about it in over half of the posts that LT writes. We already know everybody’s position on it, nothing is going to change, and everything that could be talked about pertaining to the trade has been talked about. This has been true for months, yet people feel compelled to talk about it to show how smart they are thinking that the Hall trade was a failure on a daily basis.

    Get over yourselves, seriously. It’s turning the comments section into a dreary, repetitive cesspool. Not even discussing the article that LT worked hard to get out to repeat your opinion for the 376th time is downright disrespectful. If you want to talk about the Taylor Hall trade daily, make your own blog, or create a subreddit.

    The Oilers are the highest they have been in the standings in a decade. Let’s talk about that.

    You want to be negative? Since December 8th, McDavid has only put up 0.5 points per game. Let’s talk about that. Something new for once.

    Be current. Be original. Be respectful to the owner of this blog. That’s all I ask.

    Now, having said that…

    ________________________________________________________

    -Slepyshev and Lander should definitely be on the NHL roster, Caggiula and Puljujarvi desperately need AHL time to gain more experience in professional hockey. Khaira in for Hendricks would also likely be a positive move.

    -Pouliot shouldn’t be waived, but he also shouldn’t be gifted top 6 ice time when he has been consistently bad.

    -I’d pass on Nieto and Khudobin, but believe that this team does need a trade or waiver claim soon to shake things up a bit.

    I get the point of your rant.

    Next time you might want to wait till there are a string of posts gloating about Taylor Hall’s beautiful assist in a 3-1 loss before you put your rant to print.

    Time and place.

    Last night was the third game I haven’t been able to watch all season.

    Which is pretty good for someone in the Atlantic time zone.

    After catching up on all the comments during and following the game including today’s threads you would have thought that we lost to Colorado and not Colombus( the hottest team in the NHL)

    When the fuck did a 19 year old phenom Mcdavid become a problem.

    I’m still shaking my head.

    Little disappointed boys and gals.

  43. YKOil says:

    Here is another thought.

    Anaheim loses one of Rackell or (probably) Silfverberg or a defenseman.

    On a 7/3/1 split the Oilers have space for a forward.

    So what do you send Anaheim for Silfverberg?

    Would you send them JP and Klefbom for Silfverberg and Vatanen.

    Protecting:

    – Lucic, Drai, Eberle, RNH, Maroon, Silfverberg and one other (Kassian?)
    – Sekera, Vatanen and Larsson
    – Talbot

    Interesting stuff.

  44. Clay says:

    Georges: That’s what you get for trying to delete Hemsky.

    The oldest post I can find on this blog is from 2009. I commented a few weeks back that you’ve yet to post a playoff game day thread. I’m assuming that’s wrong?

    Man, you should’ve been around here for the ’06 run. It was magic.

    (And by “here”, I mean LT’s old place, of course.)

  45. Georges says:

    Clay: Man, you should’ve been around here for the ’06 run.It was magic.

    I can imagine and I can’t imagine.

  46. treevojo says:

    YKOil:
    Here is another thought.

    Anaheim loses one of Rackell or (probably) Silfverberg or a defenseman.

    On a 7/3/1 split the Oilers have space for a forward.

    So what do you send Anaheim for Silfverberg?

    Would you send them JP and Klefbom for Silfverberg and Vatanen.

    Protecting:

    – Lucic, Drai, Eberle, RNH, Maroon, Silfverberg and one other (Kassian?)
    – Sekera, Vatanen and Larsson
    – Talbot

    Interesting stuff.

    I am pretty sure that trade would have “Bruce Wayne” standing for murder charges or in a straight jacket.

    Maybe both

  47. treevojo says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’m wondering what’s up with the Drew Remenda hate expressed here and other sites.What does he do that is so annoying? I don’t think it’s fair to say he doesn’t provide insightful commentary because virtually none of the broadcasters do.The panel in between periods offers zero insight and I don’t see people calling for their heads. Even the analysts we here on radio are blah. In fact, Ray Ferraro is the only guy I hear who consistently says interesting and enlightening things.Maguire, Friedman, Kypreos, Spector et al rarely say anything interesting and they all pull the party line. Remenda is no better but I hardly think he’s so bad that I would actively advocate he be fired.

    I can’t answer for everyone.

    For me it is the inner hatred he can’t help but display towards the Oilers.

    I think it has something to do with him losing his San Jose gig after the Oilers upset the sharks in 2006.

    *edit*

    I forgot to mention he also loss that position to ex Oiler Marty McSorley.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Georges: That’s what you get for trying to delete Hemsky.

    The oldest post I can find on this blog is from 2009. I commented a few weeks back that you’ve yet to post a playoff game day thread. I’m assuming that’s wrong?

    Yes. My playoff GDTs had some fairly wild verbal imagery that included the Bible, Williams S, Bob Dylan and actual blood. 🙂

    I have parked about two years of the old posts (2007-09) just want to freshen them a little before releasing back into the wild.

  49. YKOil says:

    treevojo:

    So what do you send Anaheim for Silfverberg?
    Would you send them JP and Klefbom for Silfverberg and Vatanen.

    I am pretty sure that trade would have “Bruce Wayne” standing for murder charges or in a straight jacket.

    Maybe both

    Lol, maybe, maybe. Here’s the thing – this team needs a winger that can play with McDavid (the closest to it we have right now is probably Maroon) and a d-man that can move and pass with authority.

    Calgary has as many of 3 of those d-men (Gio, Brodie and Hamilton) and we have a couple of almosts (Sekera and Klef and maybe, one day, Nurse).

    Point A to Point B – how do we get there?

    I think ‘Time’ is an option but it will be a painful 3 or 4 years waiting on Jones and/or Bear.

  50. jimmers2 says:

    Lowetide: Yes. My playoff GDTs had some fairly wild verbal imagery that included the Bible, Williams S, Bob Dylan and actual blood.

    Those were the days!

  51. treevojo says:

    YKOil,

    Personally I like Klefbom more then Vatanen right now.

    I think Jesse will be better then Silverberg as early as next year.

  52. "Steve Smith" says:

    Didn’t the blog’s Stan Weir thing get its start with the 2006 playoff GDTs? That’s how I remember it, but I also remember the Berenstein Bears from my childhood.

  53. who says:

    YKOil:
    Here is another thought.

    Anaheim loses one of Rackell or (probably) Silfverberg or a defenseman.

    On a 7/3/1 split the Oilers have space for a forward.

    So what do you send Anaheim for Silfverberg?

    Would you send them JP and Klefbom for Silfverberg and Vatanen.

    Protecting:

    – Lucic, Drai, Eberle, RNH, Maroon, Silfverberg and one other (Kassian?)
    – Sekera, Vatanen and Larsson
    – Talbot

    Interesting stuff.

    Both oilers you mention here have higher ceilings than the two guys you are bringing back. That is a crappy trade for edmonton.

  54. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Didn’t the blog’s Stan Weir thing get its start with the 2006 playoff GDTs?That’s how I remember it, but I also remember the Berenstein Bears from my childhood.

    This is correct, Fuzzbrain Noodlepuss,

  55. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide,

    You’re saying it was Weird for them to recall such trivia?

  56. GCW_69 says:

    I wonder if there is a disconnect between TMac and Chiarelli.

    TMac clearly leaked to play Leon on the wing, but Chiarelli provided no viable 3C alternative.

    Chiarelli clearly wants JP in the show, but TMac won’t play him.

    TMac seems to like veteran two way wingers but Chiarelli botches Versteeg and passes on Parenteau, leaving TMac blendering lines at a rate that would make MacT jealous.

    Chiarelli seems to like the monster, but TMac doesn’t seem to trust him (with good reason).

  57. OilClog says:

    Remenda’s Paid to add colour to the broadcast, his job is to best compliment the play by play guy, making the viewing audience feel like you’re standing right there spilling terrible beer all over yourself.

    He’s almost trying to be the story instead of relaying it, maybe he was more pleasant in Jose and his colour had some edge of your seat to it. Perhaps he’s trained to colour a sport to a less knowledgable fan base.

    Louie adds a colourful backdrop, a tie to the past with current stories and no matter how shitty it gets, he can can make you feel like you’re being wrapped by a teddy bear with a safety blanket knowing there’s going to be the next game to get them.

  58. stevezie says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I agree. I also enjoyed Remenda bragging about his role in the longest losing streak in league history.

    I’d rather have a guy who hates the Oilers than a homer. Which is not me liking Remenda, I just don’t care.

    Bruce Wayne: It means they don’t care about, or are even thinking about, the future.

    Yeah but I don’t see how these moves make sense for the present. At all.

    The rw isn’t Chia’s most egregious mistake, but it is his most baffling. I’m at a total loss.

  59. oscarmike says:

    JimmyV1965,

    He constantly talks about the right things the opposing team does and the wrong things the Oilers do. Sometimes I think he tries to hard to be the smartest guy in the room

  60. oscarmike says:

    Oil Fan 99,

    Drai for Mackinnion+Jost
    Nuge+2017 2nd round pick for Mackinnon
    Eberle+Benson for Mackinnon.

  61. The Trade Guy says:

    Trade Guy here postin trade ideas.

    Pouliot, Schlepy, and a second for Duchene
    Eberle and Benson for Mckinnon
    Pouliot and JP for Vatanen and Sliverberg
    Get the rights to Omark plus Pouliot and a Pick for Barrie

    Got the over pays and the under pays all in one.

  62. Jaxon says:

    Ziyat Paigin and 3rd Rounder for Kyle Wood and 4th Rounder?

  63. Hilmar says:

    “…the coaching staff elevated Zack Kassian to play RW with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Milan Lucic, while Leon Draisaitl skated with Connor McDavid and Patrick Maroon. Jordan Eberle was slotted on the right side of Drake Caggiula, with Benoit Pouliot on the left.”

    As per oilers.nhl.com.

    Looks like Eberle ran out of credit. I actually like these lines as I’ve wanted to see Draisaitl as a regular with McDavid since their first short taste in preseason 2015. The nuge line could do some damage on the cycle too. Seems to me like the player styles are more compatible than previous iterations.

    Eberle is expensive for a 3RW mid/long term, unless he can be our Kessel, ideas?

  64. Jaxon says:

    Depending on how far Ak Bars goes in the playoffs we could see Paigin signed and brought over sometime between March 1st (if they get swept in the first round and April 22nd if they go 7 games in the final). The AHL season wraps up on April 15th, so he could get up to 6 weeks of regular season play and playoffs in the AHL this season. It would be great to help him adjust to North American play and have an offseason to train and be ready for camp next fall knowing what he needs to do to adjust. I still have high hopes even though he’s not nearly as on fire as last season back with Ak Bars again.

  65. russ99 says:

    Two issues at work here:

    1. GMs are more gunshy than ever to make a move, except ours, it seems. Which is nice for us, but not nice if we’re expecting a move.

    2. We’ve been short at forward since the Versteeg drama and Chia’s inability to grab a player on preseason waivers, and due to #1, other than shuttling in and out 4th liners and AHL players there’s not much we can do about it.

    Waiver wire is probably moot as well, as anyone who could really help would be claimed before us.

    So we have to realize there’s missing pieces and we have to be patient until the trade market loosens up a bit.

    We can throw all kinds of ideas for lines, call-ups and send-downs and trades we want. but we can’t do anything about it.

    So let’s enjoy the games with that in mind. We still have a flawed but good team, it;s just that the holiday break came at a bad time for us, momentum-wise. Hopefully this road trip gets us going again.

  66. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    The Trade Guy,

    Chia should at least buy Sakic dinner first.

  67. Mr. D. says:

    Why is it too bad? Ottawa is not letting him go anywhere. Karlsson/Chabot?

    square_wheels:
    Thomas Chabot is one of the best skating D I’ve seen in a while.

    Ottawa has a beauty, too bad he’s left handed

  68. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: 2004: Lowetide finds out blogger is free, begins blogging
    2007: Lowetide thinks he is deleting one post (about Ales Hemsky), deletes blog.

    Reading Desjardins; Vic; Ron; during this time started; the intellectual discorce.
    Every day I think of comments from the lost period!

  69. Mr. D. says:

    Lucia really can’t be with McDavid. The ideology was good early on but with his turnover rate and warp factor -2 speed he just slows everything down.
    No wonder McD looks frustrated.

    Hilmar:
    “…the coaching staff elevated Zack Kassian to play RW with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Milan Lucic, while Leon Draisaitl skated with Connor McDavid and Patrick Maroon. Jordan Eberle was slotted on the right side of Drake Caggiula, with Benoit Pouliot on the left.”

    As per oilers.nhl.com.

    Looks like Eberle ran out of credit. I actually like these lines as I’ve wanted to see Draisaitl as a regular with McDavid since their first short taste in preseason 2015. The nuge line could do some damage on the cycle too. Seems to me like the player styles are more compatible than previous iterations.

    Eberle is expensive for a 3RW mid/long term, unless he can be our Kessel, ideas?

  70. Mr. D. says:

    Problem with Ebs is he seems to have lost his “finish””. That is his Forte.

    Hilmar:
    “…the coaching staff elevated Zack Kassian to play RW with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Milan Lucic, while Leon Draisaitl skated with Connor McDavid and Patrick Maroon. Jordan Eberle was slotted on the right side of Drake Caggiula, with Benoit Pouliot on the left.”

    As per oilers.nhl.com.

    Looks like Eberle ran out of credit. I actually like these lines as I’ve wanted to see Draisaitl as a regular with McDavid since their first short taste in preseason 2015. The nuge line could do some damage on the cycle too. Seems to me like the player styles are more compatible than previous iterations.

    Eberle is expensive for a 3RW mid/long term, unless he can be our Kessel, ideas?

  71. Scungilli says:

    The Trade Guy:
    Trade Guy here postin trade ideas.

    Pouliot, Schlepy, and a second for Duchene
    Eberle and Benson for Mckinnon
    Pouliot and JP for Vatanen and Sliverberg
    Get the rights to Omark plus Pouliot and a Pick for Barrie

    Got the over pays and the under pays all in one.

    I like how Pouliot gets traded twice to them, sneaky.

  72. Scungilli says:

    Hilmar: Eberle is expensive for a 3RW mid/long term, unless he can be our Kessel, ideas?

    I think spreading top 6 talent out over 3 lines causes more stress for the opponent than loading up two lines. You can trap anybody, but if three lines have talent one of them at least will get some air. If it fits under the cap keep everybody.

  73. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli,

    And thrice away from Edmonton.

  74. rickithebear says:

    16-17:
    Centers Who are
    top 25 Fwd 14 goals
    Top 25 Fwd 33 points
    with age Jan 1

    Malkin (30) 16G 43P
    Mcdavid (19) 14G 43P
    Crosby (29) 26G 42P
    Seguin (24) 14G 39P
    Schiefle (23) 17G 36P
    Mathews (19) 20G 34P
    Kesler (32)15G 34P
    Carter (32) 21G 33P
    Draisatl (21) 14G 33P

    Centers to average .25 GPG .70 PPG
    in 15-16 and 16-17
    Barkov (21)
    Carter
    Crosby
    Draisaitl
    Duchene (25)
    Giroux (28)
    Malkin
    Mcdavid
    Pavelski (32)
    Schiefle
    Seguin
    Tavares (26)

    The Pre core (18-20yr)
    Mcdavid (19) 14G 43P
    Mathews (19) 20G 34P

    Core (21-23) centers:
    Barkov (21)
    Draisatl (21) 14G 33P
    Schiefle (23) 17G 36P

    Adult Mass (24-26yr)
    Seguin (24) 14G 39P
    Duchene (25)
    Tavares (26)

    Plateau (27-31yr)
    Giroux (28)
    Crosby (29) 26G 42P
    Malkin (30) 16G 43P

    Physical Decline (32yr+)
    Pavelski (32)
    Kesler (32)15G 34P
    Carter (32) 21G 33P

    PC and Tmac have repeatedly stated:

    Build From
    1. Back out
    2. down the middle

    I kind of want 8 more years of Mcd and Drai!

  75. stephen sheps says:

    rickithebear,

    welcome back Ricki! You’ve been missed

  76. OwenCooper says:

    Centre of attention,

    According to the Giants website – “In consultation with the Edmonton Oilers, we’ve decided that it would be best for Tyler to miss tonight’s game due to a minor injury,” said Giants General Manager Glen Hanlon. “Tyler has been assessed by both our staff and the Oilers’ medical team, and we’ll take his status day-by-day. Tyler is very disappointed that he won’t be able to play in his home town and help our team continue its winning road trip tonight.”

  77. Dominoiler says:

    MrEd:
    GlenX earned himself more from the Edmonton Oilers:)

    Quoted for emphasis..

    I found lowetide in the pronger aftermath..

  78. Ribs says:

    OwenCooper:
    Centre of attention,

    According to the Giants website – “In consultation with the Edmonton Oilers, we’ve decided that it would be best for Tyler to miss tonight’s game due to a minor injury,” said Giants General Manager Glen Hanlon. “Tyler has been assessed by both our staff and the Oilers’ medical team, and we’ll take his status day-by-day. Tyler is very disappointed that he won’t be able to play in his home town and help our team continue its winning road trip tonight.”

    I found this kind of silly. The owners of the Oil Kings get to decide that the Giants have to sit their best player when they play against them?

  79. Truth says:

    Lowetide:
    Questions in the previous thread about blog history, here goes:

    1998: Lowetide finds hfboards, meets Kim Gernack and forms an online relationship with a bunch of fun people.
    2004: Lowetide finds out blogger is free, begins blogging
    2007: Lowetide thinks he is deleting one post (about Ales Hemsky), deletes blog.
    2007: Lowetide starts new blog, which is here.

    And here I thought this blog was the continuation of the infamous Tops Off for Horcoff.

  80. rickithebear says:

    stephen sheps:
    rickithebear,

    welcome back Ricki! You’ve been missed

    Oficially been diagnosed as high functioning autistic!
    and
    Anxiety Disorder!

    Anxiety meds and LT’s restrictions let me step back from my Math!
    and
    Spend time with my family full time!

    Was freaky to see “the Acountant!”
    The scene were he is laying out 15 years of budgets on the Glass.
    or
    Methodical Daily structure.

    That was me on the white boards at work:
    1. Technical Break down/requirements for Coal plant Life Expectancy/Carbon tax modeling!
    and
    Deteriming buy out asset value for none hold PPA.

    Or on paper at home starting in 05-06 to 09-10

    Expected GA/60; EVP/60; GA/60; Goal DIF/60 for any given player in a Comp/Team/ZS situation.
    to establish a mean/comparative range for any given player.

    Horcoff 09-10
    77gm -29
    Upper 1st comp
    mid 4th teammates
    2nd toughest grouped ZS.

    getting
    1. Expected GF production
    2. Expected GA production
    3. Expected Goal differential.

    the Data suggested a range of -24 to -32
    and a
    mean of -28.

    I remember all those saying .
    Not enough Data this does not make sense!

    Simple regression?
    -minimal data leads to initial larger range and approximate mean.
    -but Data overlap of the 1728 player situations possible
    establishes a mid point in overlap and a tighter range and more accurate Median for the 1728 situations.
    As more Data comes Available there is a regression to the ranges and a more accurate definition of the mean for each Situation.

    The ranges seem to repeat!
    Year to year!
    these groups regress to the mean.
    Remember I have argued this for almost 9 years!
    10 years of data now exist.

    Imagine!

    Breaking Down:
    the upper-mid- bottom (3) X 1st/2nd/3rd/4th comp (4) = 12 groups

    Times

    the upper-mid- bottom (3) X 1st/2nd/3rd/4th teamates (4) = 12 groups

    Times

    The upper-Mid-Bottom (3) X 1st/2nd/3rd/4th Zonestart (4) = 12 groups

    (3X4) X (3X4) X (3X4) = 1728 Comp/team/ZS situations.

    You get an
    1. Expected GF/60 and EVP/60 Range/Median
    2. Expected GA/60 range Median
    3. Expected Goal Dif/60 Range/Median.

    Now were have I seen that lately?
    Now to go back to Desjardins from 07-08 to 15-16
    and
    look at
    the expected groupings for Goals/Shots/Fenwick/Corsi for the situations.

    To see which ranges hold the best?

    To all those at the start who stated not enough Data and argued what I was doing did not make sense.
    It made me not continue the establishing expected situational results.

    Instead I jumped to Shot Density. Low-Med- High Chance shots. (The box) now refered to as the home plate.
    Then reverted it to low and High shot density. understanding that the average High chance shot went in 5 times more than the average low chance shot.
    Bringing into Question Shot Volume versus High danger Shot penetration in game play.

    I have yet to fully present open and closed hole theory!
    That will be later.

    LT?

    May I take
    all my personal discorce and individuals related responses to said Discorce in this blog.

  81. jm363561 says:

    Melman: Are we really complaining about an 11-6-5 road record!?!Talk about picking the pepper out of fly shit.It doesn’t need to be a Michelangelo on the road – let’s enjoy the heady air of being above the cut line.Get your points, 2 or 1, pack your bags and on to the next town.

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