G40 2016-17: OILERS AT BRUINS

The Edmonton Oilers are still in a good spot currently, but there are dark clouds in the distance. The team has real roster issues, and the coach is having trouble dealing with them. Every hour is marked by the chime of the clock, and for Edmonton we are reaching a troubling point in the season: Casting about for badly needed help, and finding none available, the chosen path appears to be inertia. Losing Tyler Pitlick should not be such a major issue, there are wingers with speed and some offense available routinely.

PISS IN THE LIFTS, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 0-1-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers after 39, 2015-16: 15-21-3, goal differential -24
  • Oilers after 39, 2016-17: 19-13-7, goal differential +8

G40 a year ago was the first one of the new year, and Edmonton won 4-3 in a shootout with the Arizona Coyotes. The Oilers had two lines going (Hall—Leon—Purcell and Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle), something Todd McLellan badly needs right now. Where is Teddy Purcell nowadays, anyway?

DEFENSE, 2016-17

  • This is mostly WoodMoney, and as I get my head around this there is real value here in my opinion. I will let the giant brains drill down to middle earth, but I am really liking the format and the reality of these numbers. The only thing that isn’t WoodMoney is 5×5/60, I ran them off Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.
  • First column: 5×5 minutes. The Woodmoney is slightly different than Stats.HockeyAnalysis, but not enough to make you worry. Seconds here and there. Adam Larsson leads the team by miles in straight 5×5 TOI, with his partner Oscar the dreamy coming in second place.
  • Second column: 5×5/60. Simple. I think Oscar and Andrej are the most legit offensive players, but defense is tough to measure in this 5×5 offense area. For instance, Darnell Nurse is 0.47/60, but I miss his transporting ability—that gave a different look to the opposition. Anyway, Matt Benning is going to save the world so don’t worry.
  • Third Column: Elite minutes against plus percentage of overall. Dynamite stuff from WoodMoney, this is the good stuff (sledge      hammer). Andrej Sekera spends 39 percent of his overall 5×5 TOI against the elite, but three other men are not far behind (Russell, Larsson, Klefbom, in order). And, look here, Matt Benning is also at 30 percent. Edmonton has no real top pairing, but the third pairing is much better than the past. Example: Sekera—Benning, which we could see tonight.
  • Fourth Column: DFF. This is Dangerous Fenwick For, expressed in a percentage. So, Benning the Younger leads the pack with a 54.7 percent DFF. Fabulistick!
  • Fifth Column: The Rel. Many of you won’t see this as being extremely valuable, but for me, this column—combined with the percentage of total minutes against elite—is going to be a giant help in discovering blue. Folks, Matt Benning is the real thing if Woodmoney have this straight (and I believe they do). I loved Brandon Davidson as a rookie, this guy might be better! Music!!

FORWARDS, 2016-17

  • First column: 5×5 minutes. There are five forwards over 500 minutes, and a sixth (Nuge) close enough for jimmy jazz. That is your top 6F, led by Connor McDavid—turns 20 in eight days—and then a big, big fall in minutes to the de facto 3line (Pouliot—Letestu—Kassian). And now, coach Todd McLellan has lost some trust (based on usage) in Jordan Eberle and is even less trusting of Benoit Pouliot. Can you do me a favor? Tell me which of the men listed here, who have played less than 300 minutes at 5×5, who you would run instead of Jordan Eberle? Instead of Benoit Pouliot? Please and thanks.
  • Second column: 5×5/60. The second column for forwards is alarming. Why? Back on November 27, Connor McDavid was at 3.22/60 at 5×5. He was 22gp, 8-11-19 on that day. Since then, he is 17gp, 2-5-7. That, my friends, is a problem. Coach Todd McLellan is moving Leon Draisaitl back on to the 97 line tonight, in an effort to re-start the fire. Does he have any dry kindling? We wait.
  • Third Column: Elite minutes against plus percentage of overall. Three men are over 200 minutes (Nuge, Eberle, McDavid) and RNH has the highest percentage of minutes against the elites. I think McLellan has been trying to get 97 away from the elites, and the overall percentage seems to be lower than the last time I looked in. That said, it would be nice to have a RW to share the land with Jordan Eberle (as is kind of the case on LW with Lucic, Maroon and even Pouliot).
  • Fourth Column: DFF. Dangerous Fenwick, and, despite his struggles over the last 17 games, McDavid remains a killer against the elites.
  • Fifth Column: The Rel. The most striking number is probably Caggiula. Todd McLellan is moving up Zack Kassian based on yesterday’s practice, and the rel suggests that is wise.

WOODMONEY

I like to digest new ideas and statistics over time, idea being the more time I have to mull the better chance I can understand it and allow my imagination to incorporate it. WoodMoney, in theory, is a fairly easy concept—create more slices of the pie in order to hone in on the vital game states—but we all take our own due time to arrive at our conclusions. I want to publicly thank both G and WG for sharing their work, and you for listening to me ramble. This is adult education in action! Exciting, or what?

MILT SCHMIDT

I learned about Milt Schmidt during my formative years as a Bruins fan. He was the general manager during the build toward the 1970 Stanley Cup, and then remained in the chair for the 1972 Stanley. Schmidt is one of only three Bruins GMs to win a Stanley (Art Ross, Schmidt, Peter Chiarelli) and I have forgiven him for not protecting Bernie Parent in the 1967 draft and then failing to protect Daniel Bouchard in 1972.

The best part of the Schmidt story is as a player, winner of the 1939 and 1941 Stanleys as a Bruin—but much more. Schmidt played on the Kraut line with Woody Dumart and Bobby Bauer, so named because all three men grew up in the city of Kitchener, Ontario, a heavily German community in our country.

  • John Bishop, Boston Bruins.com: Milt Schmidt, Woody Dumart and Bobby Bauer led the Black & Gold to the 1940-41 Stanley Cup final win over the Detroit Red Wings — and were poised to do so again. They returned to Boston from Kitchener in the autumn of 1941 expecting to continue their dominance but the Japanese attack on December 7th, changed their world, and THE world, forever. The Kraut line and goalie Frank “Mr. Zero” Brimsek, a future hockey Hall of Famer himself, would exchange their jerseys for military issued fatigues. Dumart, Bauer and Schmidt, all Canadians, joined the Royal Canadian Air Force and Brimsek, an American from Minnesota, would eventually find himself in the South Pacific. Source

That generation of men and women lived in difficult and trying times, and answered a call my generation never had to—thanks to them. That whole generation is passing now, and it is the job of their children to remind the world of their sacrifice. Your family and mine were touched by the two great wars, we should pray to any God who will listen that our children and their children won’t have to answer that call. Milt Schmidt passed away yesterday, one of the last of a generation who sacrificed so much in the name of God and country, did it willingly and with brave hearts. RIP.

This is probably about Brandon Davidson, who is having a difficult season. Interesting that it is Oesterle this time, Edmonton’s recall rotation is difficult to suss out this winter.

Fascinating shakeup there, Jordan Eberle gets a clear demotion and the Nuge line could be right out of the 2008-15 Bruins. I will tell you this: If you make a list of RWs in the NHL today who resemble Nathan Horton in his prime, you probably have at least one list on Peter Chiarelli’s laptop. I am not at all surprised that Zack Kassian gets the push tonight.

The defense (via Jack Michaels) tonight may be Sekera—Benning, Klefbom—Larsson and Russell—Gryba. We may also see Matt Hendricks in the Pouliot slot on the 3line according to Mr. Michaels.

TYLER BENSON

Tyler Benson was held out of last night’s game against the Edmonton Oil Kings. Disappointing to say the least, I had planned on heading down to the rink (ended up watching Canada-Sweden instead). He went in the shootout of the previous game played by the Vancouver Giants, so we will see if there is an alternate ending to this (trade, etc).

WAIVERS

I think the game is afoot. Matt Nieto probably gets claimed by a team behind Edmonton in the standings, but the Oesterle recall suggests to me there is another shoe to drop. As of this morning, with Oesterle recalled as above, we are here:

  • Goalie (2): Cam Talbot, Jonas Gustavsson
  • Defense (8): Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Kris Russell, Matt Benning, Brandon Davidson, Eric Gryba, Jordan Oesterle.
  • Center (6): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Letestu, Anton Lander, Drake Caggiula.
  • Left Wing (4): Milan Lucic, Patrick Maroon, Benoit Pouliot, Matt Hendricks.
  • Right Wing: (3): Jordan Eberle, Zack Kassian, Jesse Puljujarvi.

I think we may see some activity today. Edmonton needs a forward, schnell.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Connor McDavid in a funk, or just learning to deal with hooks and slashes and what is the new normal? Plus Sekera—Benning and the possibilities.
  • Jake Sundstrom, Fear the Fin. If Nieto ends up being claimed, we will talk about his new home. If not, we will discuss the Sharks and the system that allows them to be big, slower, yet remain effective.
  • Corey Graham, TSN1260 Oil Kings PBP. The OK and the Giants played last night, without Aaron Irving and Tyler Benson. We will investigate.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. The major stories of the season are coming into view, and the Toronto Maple Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets are two of them.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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365 Responses to "G40 2016-17: OILERS AT BRUINS"

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  1. linkfromhyrule says:

    It’s difficult to imagine the upheaval and uncertainty that would come with a war like that. Nothing but respect for those who left the comfort of their lives to serve overseas. Glad I haven’t had to do the same.

    Wow that lineup actually makes sense. Kassian isn’t necessarily ideal, but I see the idea behind giving RNH some heavier linemates. Maybe he is just a placeholder until 14 gets the message. 14 has been invisible these last few games, save for a few times where he is visible long enough to lose possession or miss the net.

    Nice to see Lander in and Hendricks sitting. About time.

    That entire 2nd line from last season’s G40 is struggling. Need them to straighten it out quick. It’s looking more and more unlikely that they turn it around every day.

    Those D pairs are great for two reasons, L-R for all three pairings, and KR is slotted correctly (3rd pair LS).

    Now lets see if McLellan can resist the urge to McBlender his lines before the end of the first period. One of the most irritating things about him as coach.

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    ***SPAM WARNING***

    I took a stab at some humour this morning: A Guide to Being a Negative Fan Even When the Oilers Are Winning.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/01/guide-negative-fan-even-oilers-winning/

  3. frjohnk says:

    jonrmcleod:
    ***SPAM WARNING***

    I took a stab at some humour this morning: A Guide to Being a Negative Fan Even When the Oilers Are Winning.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/01/guide-negative-fan-even-oilers-winning/

    “And don’t be afraid to call people names and question their intelligence”

    You dumb dumb. Did you write that in crayon? 🙂

    Great article.

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    So, a lot of people should be happy that Eberle is demoted. Strangely, or ironically, depending on how you look at it, these are the same people that said Yak had to play with skill to get the most from him and he shouldn’t play with 3rd line plugs.

    I don’t like that 3rd line. Three guys having tough years for different reasons. Ebs is usually money, but is on the other end of the PDO scale (more on that in a bit), Pou’s play hasn’t been good enough to excuse his bad and Caggs is a winger playing 3rd line C in his rookie year.

    On the PDO. There are a few ‘cake and eat it posters here’. If you suppose that teams in the past such as COL, CAL and this year, Columbus, are riding the PDO bus to the playoffs, as in, they’re ‘lucky’, then you also have to accept that teams and/or individual players can be ‘unlucky’. So, when it is said that Saad, for instance, is really hot at the moment, but his PDO is through the roof, so is he really that good, when looking at Eberle, you can’t then say “he’s a lazy bum, always has been.” Especially seeing as he’s usually one of the most consistent players out there. He can be unlucky, just as another player can be lucky.

    I would propose that if a team has to have a career year from over 50% of the roster to make the playoffs, that this is not a good thing. Similarly, having a disproportionate special teams number. Get them all together and you have a perfect storm. If Columbus wins the President’s trophy but goes out in the 1st round, what will it tell us?

  5. Woodguy says:

    Thanks for pimping WoodMoney LT.

    Folks, Matt Benning is the real thing if Woodmoney have this straight (and I believe they do). I loved Brandon Davidson as a rookie, this guy might be better! Music!!

    True.

    Benning vs Elite
    TOI % – 30
    DFF% – 54.7%
    DFF RelComp – 10.1%

    Davidson vs Elite last year
    TOI% – 35%
    DFF% – 50.3%
    DFF RelComp – 1.0%

    Now Davidson had lesser partners imo, but Benning is seriously knocking it out the park.

    Fun Fact:

    Among Dpairs that have played at least 120 min together (2-83 have 132min) 2-83 rank 4th in the NHL in terms of Score Adjusted Corsi.

    I honestly think that Benning might be as good (or better) than Zach Werenski this year.

    Now Werenski is only 19 and doing very well with Jones on CBJ’s top 4 (they run a top 4 like McLellan with Werenksi-Jones, and Johnson-Savard getting close to the same TOI% vs Elite, then Murray-Nutivaara seeing about 25% TOI vs Elite) and what he is doing is fantastic, but Benning has better results than him vs each level of WoodMoney comp.

    No shit.

    Werenski also does well on the best PP1 in the NHL and is racking up points and he’s in the conversation for the Calder, but I *know* that Benning’s results 5v5 in terms of shot share and location are better.

    McLellan needs to make 2-83 his 2nd pair and I look forward to seeing how they are deployed tonight.

    Big ups to Chiarelli for landing Benning.

    Go Oilers!!

    *clap,clap*

  6. Woodguy says:

    5. SAY TO THOSE ANNOYED WITH YOU, “DON’T TELL ME HOW TO FEEL!”

    I gotta say this one is real though.

    Try having over 4000 follows on twitter with half of them telling you how to feel.

    DON’T TELL ME HOW TO FELL GODDAMIT, IF YOU DON’T LIKE IT DON’T BLOODY WELL FOLLOW ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  7. Woodguy says:

    I think we may see some activity today. Edmonton needs a forward, schnell.

    They have a perfectly good Sleppy in Cali and he doesn’t get killed vs Elite comp.

    Schnell!!

  8. Oddspell says:

    At the risk of starting something less than pleasant, is there any recent word on Griffin? He’s been passed over for every recall this season. Granted, of the prospect D, only Simpson and Benning have actually played so far when recalled. Is he having trouble finding his footing or is this part of a strategy?

  9. supernova says:

    I think an important factor of Woodmoney is also the most common Teammates

    If someone is posting excellent numbers and isn’t playing with the best mates it’s even more impressive.

    Who are Benning’s most common mates?

    Drake is getting shredded.

    It’s a huge jump to move from College to NHL another to go from Wing To Center

    He should be sent to the AHL to learn

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    frjohnk: “And don’t be afraid to call people names and question their intelligence”

    You dumb dumb.Did you write that in crayon?

    Great article.

    Remember that time I was right and you were wrong?

    Good article, but your prose could use a little work. Just like that article you effed up a few weeks ago. Its was bound to happen again. Still, get over it, it’s not like you traded Hall for Larsson.

    😉

  11. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy:
    5. SAY TO THOSE ANNOYED WITH YOU, “DON’T TELL ME HOW TO FEEL!”

    I gotta say this one is real though.

    Try having over 4000 follows on twitter with half of them telling you how to feel.

    DON’T TELL ME HOW TO FELL GODDAMIT, IF YOU DON’T LIKE IT DON’T BLOODY WELL FOLLOW ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    True. But I was going for an alleged intelligent person using a self-defeating statement. Perhaps a bit too academic for this type of post. 😉

  12. Woodguy says:

    Just looked at this.

    Another fun fact.

    Now Benning has only played 20 minutes of 5v4 so let’s not get carried away…..but………

    5v5 pts/60
    Benning 0.60
    Werenski 0.71

    5v4 pts/60
    Benning 6.29
    Werenski 7.90

    I posit that if Benning was playing top 4 and PP1, he’d be damn close to Werenski here too and he’s already close.

  13. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: I honestly think that Benning might be as good (or better) than Zach Werenski this year.

    By the on ice metrics yes.

    Eye test, not close.

    Not that I watch a bunch of Columbus games, but the ones I have, Werenski stood out by his skating and skating with the puck. Both are elite. Heads up in the offensive zone and he makes plays that usually only the elite offensive Dmen make.

    I like Benning fine, a great signing by Chiarelli, but Werenski is a way better hockey player.

  14. Woodguy says:

    jonrmcleod: True. But I was going for an alleged intelligent person using a self-defeating statement. Perhaps a bit too academic for this type of post.

    Ah, I thought all of your bullets could be taken on their own.

    Everyone is far too concerned with changing how everyone else feels.

    Be happy.

    If someone is not making you happy, eliminate them from your life, or in this sense, from your twitter timeline.

  15. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: By the on ice metrics yes.

    Eye test, not close.

    Not that I watch a bunch of Columbus games, but the ones I have, Werenski stood out by his skating and skating with the puck.Both are elite.Heads up in the offensive zone and he makes plays that usually only the elite offensive Dmen make.

    I like Benning fine, a great signing by Chiarelli, but Werenski is a way better hockey player.

    WRONG!

  16. Lloyd B. says:

    It’s great that Benning is doing so well. That 30% elite number will be getting a serious bump up now that he is with Sekera.

    I hope he is ready to take the next step up in competition. Otherwise we are back to playing guys one level above their established level of play. McLellan hasn’t many options though.

    Cheering for the kid. The Oilers need a break on the defencemen side of things. The right side of things to boot.

  17. russ99 says:

    Those Woodmoney numbers are really interesting, but I’d like to see HDSC for defensemen instead of DFF.

    Seems there’s a correlation between more tough minutes and a lower DFF, and HDSC would shine more light.

    IMO, Benning’s numbers may be due to better play outside the D-zone than better play inside the D-zone.

  18. dustrock says:

    I wonder if Chiarelli would make a minor deal with a team behind in the standings – pick up Nieto for us, we’ll trade you….Oesterle, etc.

  19. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Slow golf clap and raises glass of wine

    Woodguy,

    News of the year so far!l (get it because the year is only five days old hehe)

    Jokes aside I’m very happy to see the numbers back up the eye test. Calm is the word I’d use to describe his play. Looking forward to more eye tests now that he may be up with Sekera.

    Also prospect cupboard is running dry, Chia signs two College free agents who get major minutes with one of them knocking it out of the park. Big Big story now that the ship has turned North if the Oilers can keep raiding the NCAA

  20. Chachi says:

    jonrmcleod:
    ***SPAM WARNING***

    I took a stab at some humour this morning: A Guide to Being a Negative Fan Even When the Oilers Are Winning.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/01/guide-negative-fan-even-oilers-winning/

    You nailed it.

  21. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    Werenski looks Elite. Benning while pretty good but nowhere near that level.
    Curious how the numbers look if you erase Russell who we have come to realize is an extreme advanced stats variant.

  22. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’n starting to get tired of the line juggling. Maroon-Drai-RNH was absolutely dominating the competition. Why break it up? There’s nothing wrong with some healthy line changes, but it just looks like TMac has no confidence in anyone. Can’t see that being great. And ya, put on your big boy pants and send down JP and the Drake already.

  23. Philosophil says:

    A few thoughts (Not NYCOil few thoughts, however 🙂

    RE: Benson – saw him good at Canada-Russia game at Rogers Place in November. Strong on the puck, good on ice awareness, and gritty. Maybe a 1/2 step slower at elite level, aka Caggiula. Hoping he is traded to a WHL contender soon.

    Benning – amen. Is Benning=>Schultz? Would seem so. Win for PC.

    Today’s thread reminds me of the “Canadian Sorry” discussion from awhile back, i.e. “Don’t worry, I won’t tell you how to feel..sorry”

  24. DocFan says:

    Taking a page from the Trump Debate Handbook?

    Woodguy: WRONG!

  25. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    jonrmcleod,

    Well written and you succeeded in your intention. 🙂

  26. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    Points by D are not everything, but they mean a lot.

    Benning has 0 goals 6 assists in 25 games
    Benning is running at a 18 point pace over a full season.

    Werenski has 6 goals 19 assists in 36 games
    Werenski is running at a 57 point pace over a full season.

    I like Benning alot, but he is no Noah Hanifan 🙂

    ***************************
    On another point regarding JP, is it possible the template for his first year is the same template that Chia had for Seguin in his first year as a Bruin? If I remember correctly, in his first year, Seguin was sheltered on the 3rd line, was scratched for a few games over the season, and over all did not play much per game.

  27. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Jimmy, maybe have a read of JonRMcLeod’s article. 😉

  28. frjohnk says:

    DocFan:
    Taking a page from the Trump Debate Handbook?

    Woodguy has said “MAKE THE OILERS GREAT AGAIN” a few times, so you are probably not far off.

  29. Woodguy says:

    russ99:
    Those Woodmoney numbers are really interesting, but I’d like to see HDSC for defensemen instead of DFF.

    Seems there’s a correlation between more tough minutes and a lower DFF, and HDSC would shine more light.

    IMO, Benning’s numbers may be due to better play outside the D-zone than better play inside the D-zone.

    I understand what you are saying and I used to feel the same way.

    I prefer DFF (or xGF) now because it takes into account all shots against.

    When we use micro-stats like HDSC, it only looks at certain shots and that can obscure the picture.

    A good rule of thumb is more data > less data.

  30. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    DocFan:
    Taking a page from the Trump Debate Handbook?

    Hey worked for him!
    Now we are on to #DrainTheCore

    Out: Gagner and Hall
    In: Kassian

    That’s how DJT does it, right? 😉

  31. JJS says:

    dustrock:
    I wonder if Chiarelli would make a minor deal with a team behind in the standings – pick up Nieto for us, we’ll trade you….Oesterle, etc.

    I may be mistaken but believe there is a freeze/certain timeframe on a team’s ability to trade a newly acquired waiver pick up.

    This would prevent a team from claiming someone and immediately trading him

  32. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    frjohnk:
    Woodguy,

    Points by D are not everything, but they mean a lot.

    Benning has 0 goals 6 assists in 25 games
    Benning is running at a 18 point pace over a full season.

    Werenski has 6 goals 19 assists in 36 games
    Werenski is running at a 57 point pace over a full season.

    I like Benning alot, but he is no Noah Hanifan

    ***************************
    On another point regarding JP, is it possible the template for his first year is the same template that Chia had for Seguin in his first year as a Bruin?If I remember correctly, in his first year, Seguin was sheltered on the 3rd line, was scratched for a few games over the season, and over all did not play much per game.

    I think when it comes down to it, Chia trusts McLellan more than his AHL staff.

    He is aware of the option. He mentioned Pastrnak by name.

  33. Revolved says:

    It is looking a bit grim offensively. I cannot understand why Slepyshev was not called up the moment Pitlick went down.

    I do hope that Chia and TMac have a plan for Puljujarvi contributing in the playoffs. Unfortunately, that WM DFF% number suggests he needs serious shelter. Fortunately, given shelter he crushes it with an overall 5×5 SACF% of 54%.

    The same cannot be said of Cagguila, who is sheltered and still has a SACF% below 50%. Why will Chia not let him enjoy the Cali sun?

  34. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    Woodguy,

    Points by D are not everything, but they mean a lot.

    Benning has 0 goals 6 assists in 25 games
    Benning is running at a 18 point pace over a full season.

    Werenski has 6 goals 19 assists in 36 games
    Werenski is running at a 57 point pace over a full season.

    I like Benning alot, but he is no Noah Hanifan

    ***************************
    On another point regarding JP, is it possible the template for his first year is the same template that Chia had for Seguin in his first year as a Bruin?If I remember correctly, in his first year, Seguin was sheltered on the 3rd line, was scratched for a few games over the season, and over all did not play much per game.

    I am of the opinion that points are not offense.

    I did not come up with this, but was convinced of it by Tyler Dellow over time.

    When evaluating a player it is much, much more important to see if THE TEAM gets more goals or less goals for than who gets the points on those goals.

    When you look at some Dmen, the team doesn’t score more when they are on the ice compared to off, so its like they are just taking points that would have gone to a forward.

    A good data points supporting this position is the fact that Dmen do not drive ONSH% at all.

    Dmen ONSH% (that’s team SH% when a player is on the ice) is pretty random and doesn’t predict itself well from year to year.

    Forwards ONSH%, on the other hand, does predict itself and is correlated from year to year.

    Ergo, Forwards drive goals and Dmen don’t.

    What do Dmen drive?

    Well Dmen can drive CF% and have a pretty large effect on it.

    So it boils down to:

    1) A good offensive Dman will help drive the puck to the offensive zone
    2) Once the puck is in the offensive zone, the forwards are the ones who drive turning that possession into a goal.

    This is all 5v5, 5v4 is way different.

    There are some outliers on this, but on the whole that’s how it seems to work.

  35. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: I understand what you are saying and I used to feel the same way.

    I prefer DFF (or xGF) now because it takes into account all shots against.

    When we use micro-stats like HDSC, it only looks at certain shots and that can obscure the picture.

    A good rule of thumb is more data > less data.

    Also HDSC are not actual shots against on net. They are usually just corsi attempts from the high danger area. IIRC, the amount of HD corsi attempts that hit the net varied from 67% to 78% depending on the team.

    HDSC used to be my favorite.

    Now its DSF.

  36. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    Woodguy,

    Points by D are not everything, but they mean a lot.

    Benning has 0 goals 6 assists in 25 games
    Benning is running at a 18 point pace over a full season.

    Werenski has 6 goals 19 assists in 36 games
    Werenski is running at a 57 point pace over a full season.

    I like Benning alot, but he is no Noah Hanifan

    ***************************
    On another point regarding JP, is it possible the template for his first year is the same template that Chia had for Seguin in his first year as a Bruin?If I remember correctly, in his first year, Seguin was sheltered on the 3rd line, was scratched for a few games over the season, and over all did not play much per game.

    Also,

    5v5 Werenski only has 7 points.

    He’s great on the PP, but playing on the best PP1 in the NHL has its benefits.

  37. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Also HDSC are not actual shots against on net.They are usually just corsi attempts from the high danger area. IIRC, the amount of HD corsi attempts that hit the net varied from 67% to 78% depending on the team.

    HDSC used to be my favorite.

    Now its DSF.

    When I say “shots” I didn’t mean “shots on goal”, but “shots at the goal”

    Corsi is best described as “shots”

    If the shot has to be saved or goes in then they are “shots on goal”

    I’ll be more clear next time.

  38. Revolved says:

    LT, I recall that one of your summer missions was to screw the bruins out of something. Matt Benning must qualify!

  39. Woodguy says:

    supernova,

    Who are Benning’s most common mates?

    Right now G has the site pumping out the 5 most common line mates vs the 3 levels of comp.

    Vs. Elite Bennings are (in order): Andrej Sekera, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid

    Werenski’s are: Seth Jones, Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson

    Caggulia’s are: Kris Russell, Matthew Benning, Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Tyler Pitlick

  40. Woodguy says:

    DocFan:
    Taking a page from the Trump Debate Handbook?

    I have the best stats.

    Just ask anyone and they’ll tell you

    I was talking to someone high up in a NHL organization, very high up, Top Cheese, brilliant guy, very smart, and he told me I had the best stats.

    Phenomenal stats. Great stats.

    They tell me this all the time.

  41. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy,

    Well, I am always leery of small sample sizes, especially with young D. As you pointed out, Werenski is 19, Benning 22. Ghost is having an uneven year. Ekblad struggling with injuries and without Campbell.

    Patience is key (see Klefbom, Oscar and Larsson, Adam), but if the early indications hold up it will be great to have been on the finder’s end of a hidden gem. Godspeed, Matthew!

    P.s. we were hoping for a Krug type college signing when Chia came aboard weren’t we?

    P.P.S. This could be Yuge! #MOGA

  42. Mattaklap says:

    jonrmcleod:
    ***SPAM WARNING***

    I took a stab at some humour this morning: A Guide to Being a Negative Fan Even When the Oilers Are Winning.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/01/guide-negative-fan-even-oilers-winning/

    Not a stab in the dark, it seems; this is comedy platinum.

    Except when you mentioned Staples. When his name is uttered the room goes dark and I start chanting in the Black Speech of Mordor.

  43. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: When I say “shots” I didn’t mean “shots on goal”, but “shots at the goal”

    Corsi is best described as “shots”

    If the shot has to be saved or goes inthen they are “shots on goal”

    I’ll be more clear next time.

    Was just adding to the conversation about why like DFF better than HDSC.

    Also realise that I pretty much implied that I like “DSF”

    Man.

  44. linkfromhyrule says:

    frjohnk: Also realise that I pretty much implied that I like “DSF”

    Freudian slip? 🙂

  45. frjohnk says:

    linkfromhyrule: Freudian slip?

    Yes.

    Using laptop so I cant blame my phone.

  46. dustrock says:

    Nieto to Avs.

  47. Roughneck says:

    Milt Schmidt stories inspire the good part of my being. What a legacy he left, a world class life lived with suave dignity.

  48. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    So we want the next Benning with more offense.

    How about Ian Brady:

    RHD
    University of Nebraska-Omaha
    Senior free agent
    6’0″. 205 on his college page 198 on hockeydb (Benning 6′ 0″ 203)
    17 points in 16 games
    +6 (slightly above average for the team)

    Same team as Tyler Vessel but with higher P/G and +/-

  49. frjohnk says:

    Oiler game and WJ game are half hour apart. Which isnt too bad. WJ game should just before 1st intermission of Oiler game, so during each intermission, there should be hockey to watch.

    Will have laptop and TV on at same time.

    Wifey and kids should be happy with me.

    Except for the boy. No Paw Patrol for him tonight.

  50. Clay says:

    Woodguy: I have the best stats.

    Just ask anyone and they’ll tell you

    I was talking to someone high up in a NHL organization, very high up,Top Cheese, brilliant guy, very smart,and he told me I had the best stats.

    Phenomenal stats. Great stats.

    They tell me this all the time.

    I lol’d.

  51. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    Might have thrown in a “tremendous,” but excellent. A+!

  52. godot10 says:

    Oddspell:
    At the risk of starting something less than pleasant, is there any recent word on Griffin? He’s been passed over for every recall this season. Granted, of the prospect D, only Simpson and Benning have actually played so far when recalled. Is he having trouble finding his footing or is this part of a strategy?

    1) He was injured early in the season.
    2) He needs to play a lot, so he should be in the AHL.
    3) His cap number because of potential bonuses keeps him in the AHL.
    4) Chiarelli is making it difficult for Vegas to evaluate him, by keeping him in the AHL.
    5) Musil and Oesterle’s 2nd contract were structured to encourage them to get NHL tryouts this year. The OIlers “prepaid” for their call-ups.

  53. Mr. D. says:

    Remember blogs are always pumping up someone’s tires and deflating others. Add shot based stats and that just makes it worse.

  54. Pink Socks says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Woodguy,

    Might have thrown in a “tremendous,” but excellent. A+!

    I would add in a “the stats are huge yuge.”

  55. Pink Socks says:

    I have always like TMac. Had season tickets to the Houston Aeros (Wild AHL) until they moved to Iowa. He was the coach for 4 years and the team was always good, won one championship, and overall it was very clear that he was going to end up with an NHL job. That being said, some of the current decision making is completely baffling to me. Player usage and the blender is beyond frustrating to watch. I know he is a good coach, and I know he is above average, and I am the first to admit that while I hated his loyalty to Woodcroft, the PP has made great strides. All I want is for him to stick with a lineup for a few games and develop some chemistry.

  56. Hope is a good thing says:

    LT: Given the Boston game tonight, the Chiarelli connection, and your conjecture of an upcoming trade, would you:

    Trade a 23 year old RNH ($6.0 M through ’20/’21) who you fear might not be or become what you thought, for:

    31 year old Patrice Bergeron ($6.875 M through ’21/’22) who is what you hoped RNH would be?

    Plenty of pro’s and con’s and obstacles involved (not the least of which is PB’s NMC, but Chiarelli’s powers of persuasion and the allure of McDavid and Lucic could influence). Neither are scoring to their salary expectation. You never want to trade your future for the present…but an experienced defensive wizard and face-off specialist could be just what the MOGA needs to make a run for it for a few years.

  57. GCW_69 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    ***SPAM WARNING***

    I took a stab at some humour this morning: A Guide to Being a Negative Fan Even When the Oilers Are Winning.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/01/guide-negative-fan-even-oilers-winning/

    With the Oilers being 7-8 in thier last 15, does this even apply? ; )

  58. OilClog says:

    Benning, comparing him to Werenski… Absolute madness.

    Midst well compare Sekera to that guy in Ottawa.. Seriously, makes about as much sense.

    Benning is going above and beyond expectations, let’s just swim in that gravy bowl shall we.

  59. OilClog says:

    GCW_69: With the Oilers being 7-8 in thier last 15, does this even apply? ; )

    Yeah, but

  60. Bruce Wayne says:

    Woodguy: I am of the opinion that points are not offense.

    I did not come up with this, but was convinced of it by Tyler Dellow over time.

    When evaluating a player it is much, much more important to see if THE TEAM gets more goals or less goals for than who gets the points on those goals.

    When you look at some Dmen, the team doesn’t score more when they are on the ice compared to off, so its like they are just taking points that would have gone to a forward.

    A good data points supporting this position is the fact that Dmen do not drive ONSH% at all.

    Dmen ONSH% (that’s team SH% when a player is on the ice) is pretty random and doesn’t predict itself well from year to year.

    Forwards ONSH%, on the other hand, does predict itself and is correlated from year to year.

    Ergo, Forwards drive goals and Dmen don’t.

    What do Dmen drive?

    Well Dmen can drive CF% and have a pretty large effect on it.

    So it boils down to:

    1) A good offensive Dman will help drive the puck to the offensive zone
    2) Once the puck is in the offensive zone, the forwards are the ones who drive turning that possession into a goal.

    This is all 5v5, 5v4 is way different.

    There are some outliers on this, but on the whole that’s how it seems to work.

    I don’t agree with this at all. The perennial problem with shot metrics is isolating individual contributions to what is fundamentally a team stat. Points help isolate the individual contributions to goals in a way that is representative of their individual contributions to goals for, thereby helping to isolate the drivers from the passengers.

    Take Klefbom and Larsson for example.

    They have similar GF/60 and xGF/60. By your reasoning this means that their contribution to the offense is the same.

    If you break it down individually, however, Klefbom has 3 more goals and has taken 37 more shots (more than twice as many) in slightly less ice time, driven largely, I would suggest, by Klefbom being much better at joining the play.

    What conclusion are we to draw from this information? My conclusion is that Klefbom is driving much of the offense when they are on the ice together, so that while they have the same team numbers that is because Larsson is playing with Klefbom and not the other way around. If Larsson played with a Larsson clone, those 3 goals and 37 shots are shots that would not have happened.

    Doing it your way is going to systematically overate defense defenders who have their team offensive numbers inflated by their partners. Klefbom’s additional 3 goals over Larsson are not points that would have otherwise gone to a forward, they are goals that never would have happened in the first place.

    What you are suggesting might be true about second assists, but I can’t see it being true about goals, and I doubt it is true about primary assists. Unless you think that Sekera’s five primary assists to Larsson’s one primary assist at 5×5 has not resulted in any additional goals?

  61. Bag of Pucks says:

    Hope is a good thing:
    LT: Given the Boston game tonight, the Chiarelli connection, and your conjecture of an upcoming trade, would you:

    Trade a 23 year old RNH ($6.0 M through ’20/’21) who you fear might not be or become what you thought, for:

    31 year old Patrice Bergeron ($6.875 M through ’21/’22) who is what you hoped RNH would be?

    Plenty of pro’s and con’s and obstacles involved (not the least of which is PB’s NMC, but Chiarelli’s powers of persuasion and the allure of McDavid and Lucic could influence). Neither are scoring to their salary expectation.You never want to trade your future for the present…but an experienced defensive wizard and face-off specialist could be just what the MOGA needs to make a run for it for a few years.

    This upgrades the roster immediately, but in my opinion, you can’t make this trade because A) you’re essentially trading for Bergeron’s past and not his present and future & B) the key to maintaining a Cup contention window throughout McDavid’s tenure is sourcing and acquiring value contracts. Bergeron won’t qualify as a value contract in 2 years time.

    RNH may no longer be a value contract, so imo, your proposal is the right idea but the wrong execution.

    Chiarelli needs to acquire the next Bergeron-esque player to emerge, not the current model who’s past his best buy date.

    Finally, you’re going to get a ton of people likely saying ‘things like RNH is only 23’ Patience, patience, patience.

    The question I have for those folks is how do you then account for Leon’s performance/production at 21?

    Coming out of junior, RNH was never a dominant EV outscorer. He was a PP witch with some two way play concerns. And that’s who he is today.

    People comparing him to Datsyuk or Keon were projecting EV offense that didn’t exist.

    If you can acquire a plug n play RW for $6mil per that can keep up with McDavid and consisently cash his chances, you take that over RNH all day and twice on Sundays.

  62. Spoils says:

    I’d attack that Caggiula line.

  63. Spoils says:

    i was liking the idea of Nuge and Drai on line two. stacking line two basically… because mcdavid can play with anyone.

  64. Bruce Wayne says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I agree with you on Bergeron, however I disagree on what this team needs. This team doesn’t need to spend 6 million to find someone to play with McDavid, that’s what veteran scorers on cheapish contracts are for, they need to spend six million to find someone to drive another line.

    I wonder who that could have been?

  65. StixMalone says:

    If you can acquire a plug n play RW for $6mil per that can keep up with McDavid and consisently cash his chances, you take that over RNH all day and twice on Sundays.

    Agreed 1000%! We need a finisher for Connor. Ala Kurri was to Gretz. I don’t think Ebs is that guy….

  66. Woodguy says:

    Stauffer just said on his show that if they didn’t do the Reinhart trade the Oilers would have taken Ek with the 16th and wanted Samsonov with the 32nd, if he was gone, next on their list was Brandon Carlo (6’5″ RHD)

    Samsonov was gone, so they would have taken Carlo.

    The trade was ostensibly so they could have a NHL Dman faster than the pick.

    Reinhart has 0 NHL games this year and Carlo has 40 NHL GP mostly playing 1st pair with Chara.

    Man.

  67. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    P.s. we were hoping for a Krug type college signing when Chia came aboard weren’t we?

    P.P.S. This could be Yuge! #MOGA

    Yup, Yup.

    *knocks on wood*

  68. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Was just adding to the conversation about why like DFF better than HDSC.

    Also realise that I pretty much implied that I like “DSF”

    Man.

    Andrew’s a fine man when he’s not moving the goalposts for fun.

  69. Woodguy says:

    Mr. D.:
    Remember blogs are always pumping up someone’s tires anddeflating others. Add shot based stats and that just makes it worse.

    I find random negative comments with no evidence make it worse.

  70. Woodguy says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan: Ian Brady

    Nice find!

    If he can skate like Benning I’m sold!

  71. Woodguy says:

    GCW_69: With the Oilers being 7-8 in thier last 15, does this even apply? ; )

    Or 7 regulation wins in the last 30 games.

  72. Oddspell says:

    Woodguy,

    That’s a bitter pill.

    Brandon Carlo has 3 more NHL games than Griffin Reinhart, 2 more goals and 6 more points.

    …And he shoots right.

  73. Woodguy says:

    OilClog:
    Benning, comparing him to Werenski… Absolute madness.

    Midst well compare Sekera to that guy in Ottawa.. Seriously, makes about as much sense.

    Benning is going above and beyond expectations, let’s just swim in that gravy bowl shall we.

    Why do you hate fun?

  74. Woodguy says:

    Bruce Wayne: I don’t agree with this at all.The perennial problem with shot metrics is isolating individual contributions to what is fundamentally a team stat.Points help isolate the individual contributions to goals in a way that is representative of their individual contributions to goals for, thereby helping to isolate the drivers from the passengers.

    Take Klefbom and Larsson for example.

    They have similar GF/60 and xGF/60.By your reasoning this means that their contribution to the offense is the same.

    If you break it down individually, however, Klefbom has 3 more goals and has taken 37 more shots (more than twice as many) in slightly less ice time, driven largely, I would suggest, by Klefbom being much better at joining the play.

    What conclusion are we to draw from this information?My conclusion is that Klefbom is driving much of the offense when they are on the ice together, so that while they have the same team numbers that is because Larsson is playing with Klefbom and not the other way around.If Larsson played with a Larsson clone, those 3 goals and 37 shots are shots that would not have happened.

    Doing it your way is going to systematically overate defense defenders who have their team offensive numbers inflated by their partners.Klefbom’s additional 3 goals over Larsson are not points that would have otherwise gone to a forward, they are goals that never would have happened in the first place.

    What you are suggesting might be true about second assists, but I can’t see it being true about goals, and I doubt it is true about primary assists.Unless you think that Sekera’s five primary assists to Larsson’s one primary assist at 5×5 has not resulted in any additional goals?

    But all fancystats agree on everything, didn’t you read that in the manual?

    Did you not go to the last meeting?

  75. oscarmike says:

    I think Nuge and Eberle are missing their buddy Taylor Hall.

    It’s a no brainer Oilers are going to win. They have Kassian on the 2nd line. See, Oilers can take any player and develop him into a top 6 forward.

    I guess the Oilers are going to develops JP as a bottom 6 forward. Maybe he will get 5 minutes of Ice time. Laine and Auston both play in the top 6 with twice as much ice time and on the PP.

    So I see that Todd had an experiment and after his experiment he decied to put Mcd-Drai.

    Eberle and Nuge really need to grow a pair and hit the net.

    I haven’t seen Eberle play his style of hockey since the Pittsburgh game. He use to have good poise.
    He doesn’t toe drag or deke and take the puck to the net anymore. Sometimes he takes himself out of a passing lane because he rather go for a rebound off the net. Maybe the coach his telling him to forget the passing lanes and go for the rebounds The guy has to get more creative with the puck.

    I hate shots on net just for the sake of getting a shot on the net. Shooting more pucks at the net gives the other teams goalie a higher SV%.

    Evidence Todd is over coaching the offensive:
    Only 5 forwards weren’t scratched.
    JP isn’t playing a posistion he was drafted for.
    Lack of production and creativity from the forwards.

    I’m a big JP fan. I really think he has what it takes but needs to play top line minutes. All Maroon is going to do is stand in front of the net. JP is strong and big enough to do that. Oilers have to play him to his strengths. Like Jets did with Laine. JP was the first guy this year to score on the PP and then they take him off. Tmac is forcing playoffs to much he’s going to jinx himself.

    Puljujarvi-Drai-Mcdavid.
    Lucic-Nuge-Slepy
    Maroon-Drake-Ebs
    Lander-Letestu-Kassian.

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I agree with you on Bergeron, however I disagree on what this team needs.This team doesn’t need to spend 6 million to find someone to play with McDavid, that’s what veteran scorers on cheapish contracts are for, they need to spend six million to find someone to drive another line.

    I wonder who that could have been?

    1RW is the glaring need in the Top 6 now, especially if you desire to keep Leon at C. Great if we can find a cheaper solution, but if not, I’m simply reinforcing that the org could reallocate resource in that direction from RNH’s contract should they decide that Connor merits having a better winger than Eberle or Kassian,

    Hall doesn’t play RW. I’m not sure how him still being here solves the McDavid RW issue, particularly in view of the lack of chemistry evidenced in their small sample size together. They’re both puck transporters. McDavid is better suited to play with someone who can keep up on the give and go’s and drive the net physically to cash garbage rebounds.

    I’m not a Hall trade defender, but you dismiss what Lucic is capable of doing in the playoffs at your own peril imo. At this point in history, he’s got an established track record in that regard while Hall does not.

  77. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Couldn’t you just move RNH to the wing negating the need to find that 6 million dollar man?
    (Ducks)

    Also lines tonight have been confirmed

    Maroon-CmD-Drai
    Lucic-RNH-Kassian
    Pouliot-Cagguila-Eberle
    Lander-Letestu-PJ

    Sekera-Benning
    Klef-Larsson
    Russell-Gryba

    Don’t know about you all but I’m almost satisfied with that setup and would have time for a Davidson-Russell 3rd pairing once Davidson is healthy again.

  78. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    JP is the most likely candidate “long term” for that position no?

  79. oscarmike says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    It could be Tavares after next season.

  80. Bag of Pucks says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Couldn’t you just move RNH to the wing negating the need to find that 6 million dollar man?
    (Ducks)

    Yes you can, IF RNH can produce consistently in that role. Yet to be established.

    I, for one, would like to see him on McDavid’s wing to see if it’s a possibility.

  81. Bag of Pucks says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Bag of Pucks,

    JP is the most likely candidate “long term” for that position no?

    You would think and hope so. But they shouldn’t construct their depth chart now assuming that for the start of next season. That rushing to anoint prospects as ready made NHL producers is the kind of wishful thinking that killed this team and many of their prospects in the past.

    There’s a good argument to be made for acquiring a vet RW soonish on a short-term deal to better setup JP and the team as a whole for success.

  82. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    And he drives possession at the same rate as Taylor hall. Possibly better. His stats are certainly better, but you have to account for the good teams he played for.

    Pretty happy with lucic.

  83. sliderule says:

    Haven’t seen any comments on play of Caleb Jones in WJC
    In the semifinal he played 28.41 which was only second to McAvoy.He doesn’t get power play time so 5×5 and PK they were equal.
    Couple of nervous minutes on opening shift but from there on lots of calm play and good passing.
    Just surprised how there is no commentary on one of best defencemen in WJC

  84. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I completely agree with that line of thinking yup, especially given the choice to slow play JP in the bigs like they have this year. Though to be fair Seguin spiked in his second year and Pastrnak is delivering the goods in his 3rd NHL season.

    Stop gap, yes I agree, inking another $6 million winger for more than a stop gap and I’d need to be convinced.

  85. stush18 says:

    Also woodguy is killing it today. Good work amigo

  86. Skeeziks says:

    With the recent injury to the Canadiens RW Brendan Gallagher, does this open up a window of opportunity for the Oilers?

    What would the reaction be to a trade of Jordan Eberle ($6.0) to MTL for C Plekanec ($6.0) and D Sergachev ($925,000)? Is this a trade that works for both teams? Is the potential of Sergachev plus 1.5 years of Plekanec adequate return for Eberle or is it too much?

    The Oiloers would still have 1 roster spot open and the cap space to seek out a decent to good RW to replace Eberele.

    This would also help to solve the scoring problems which seem to plague the Canadiens while giving the Oilers a short term 3C.

  87. spoiler says:

    jonrmcleod:
    ***SPAM WARNING***

    I took a stab at some humour this morning: A Guide to Being a Negative Fan Even When the Oilers Are Winning.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/01/guide-negative-fan-even-oilers-winning/

    Awesome! Good work and a great idea. Well done!

  88. Truth says:

    Woodguy:
    Stauffer just said on his show that if they didn’t do the Reinhart trade the Oilers would have taken Ek with the 16th and wanted Samsonov with the 32nd, if he was gone, next on their list was Brandon Carlo (6’5″ RHD)

    Samsonov was gone, so they would have taken Carlo.

    The trade was ostensibly so they could have a NHL Dman faster than the pick.

    Reinhart has 0 NHL games this year and Carlo has 40 NHL GP mostly playing 1st pair with Chara.

    Man.

    Yuck. The worst part of that trade is Reinhart was somewhere between failing prospect to a “project” player at the time, at least in my opinion. If he was a legit prospect and had fallen off a cliff after getting here I wouldn’t hold so much resentment towards it.

    Other players available at 14:
    – Barzal
    – Connor
    – Chabot (yes, that one)
    – White
    – Boeser
    – Konecny
    – Beauvillier
    – Aho (available at 14 and 33)

    Edit: Obviously, as Stauffer mentioned, they would have taken Ek and then Carlo. I believe the names available at the time should be mentioned, especially with some of them doing excellent work at the WJC (and some not made available due to playing in the NHL).

  89. frjohnk says:

    sliderule:
    Haven’t seen any comments on play of Caleb Jones in WJC
    In the semifinal he played 28.41 which was only second to McAvoy.He doesn’t get power play timeso 5×5 and PK they were equal.
    Couple of nervous minutes on opening shift but from there on lots of calm play and good passing.
    Just surprised how there is no commentary on one of best defencemen in WJC

    There was some talk of him a few days ago between LT, me and maybe 1 other poster.

    My thoughts:
    He looks bigger than listed. ( 6 foot 1, 190 pounds). Skating if not elite, is damn close. Good with the puck. Heads up player who sees the ice well. Is very aggressive when defending in his own zone. And by aggressive, I dont mean physical, ( should be noted he is not shy at all) but he gets to the opponent very quickly trying to eliminate their time and space.

    Definitely a player here.

  90. Georges says:

    Bruce Wayne,
    Woodguy,

    Bruce, I think you’re talking about variance in the ability of defensemen to generate offense and using the individual points data to suss that out. I think WG is talking about the relative importance of forwards in generating offense and the secondary role played by defensemen.

    I haven’t looked too closely at the data on your point. Usually we see similar names at the top of the scoring race (almost all forwards); I’d expect a similar result if we looked just at defensemen, suggesting that producing offense is a talent for defensemen as well as forwards. I know defensemen scoring is dependent on PP time. I’ll do the legwork.

    WG’s position is easy to verify. Let’s look at the proportion of 5v5 points going to defensemen for the past few seasons. Because there are 3 forwards and 2 defensemen at 5v5, if we assume that all players are equally responsible for generating offense, then defensemen should get 40% of the points. Now we know this assumption is going to be false for goals because more goals are scored the closer you get to the net and forwards are closer to the opposing net than defensemen. Let’s see how off it is for each of the points categories (G, A1, A2, A, P, P1):

    Season, % of G going to defensemen
    13-14 14.7
    14-15 15.5
    15-16 14.8
    16-17 14.9

    Season, % of A1 going to defensemen
    13-14 23.4
    14-15 23.1
    15-16 25.2
    16-17 27.7

    Season, % of A2 going to defensemen
    13-14 36.8
    14-15 36.9
    15-16 34.7
    16-17 35.9

    Season, % of A going to defensemen
    13-14 29.4
    14-15 29.3
    15-16 29.4
    16-17 31.3

    Season, % of P1 going to defensemen
    13-14 18.9
    14-15 19.2
    15-16 19.8
    16-17 21.1

    Season, % of P going to defensemen
    13-14 23.9
    14-15 24.2
    15-16 23.9
    16-17 25.1

    We can say that defensemen don’t generate offense the way that forwards do. The closest they get to 40% is on second assists. But there is also a little trend here. Defensemen are picking up a greater share of primary assists (A1) and primary points (P1) recently. So we can also say that defensemen are generating a little bit more offense than they used to.

  91. spoiler says:

    Woodguy & GMoney,

    Is there any chance of including a volatility stat in your work?

    I mean I can look at the population sizes and their stats and have an idea of how volatile the numbers are, but I don’t think the average layman necessarily does.

    For eg… what is the effect on Davidson’s stats if he’s on for 5 more shots against or 5 more for? …essentially attempting to represent one really bad or really good shift.

    Same for scoring stats… how much does 5×5 rate change if we had one more or one less goal-on-for?

    I don’t think these things are critical to our analyses, but I think they would go a long way to giving the numbers more value to the Joe Sixpacks that neither have the time or inclination to drill down.

  92. Woogie63 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’n starting to get tired of the line juggling.Maroon-Drai-RNH was absolutely dominating the competition. Why break it up? There’s nothing wrong with some healthy line changes, but it just looks like TMac has no confidence in anyone.Can’t see that being great.And ya, put on your big boy pants and send down JP and the Drake already.

    With the amount of time reviewing the others team’s film, the detail the coaching is now at, I think most team’s need to blend the lines.

  93. Hope is a good thing says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Thank you for the response and review. Part of my reasoning was based upon LT’s contention that Chiarelli had to be committed to winning now once he traded Hall. Additionally, the $6M winger you referenced would be Duchene in a larger package involving Eberle and Klefbom and Barrie – and only if you are trying to push the envelope. Thanks again.

  94. Truth says:

    The mishandling of JP is getting awful tiresome. He’s played in 5 of the last 10 games at an average of 9.5 mins in those he did play. Now they have him on the 4th line.

    Seriously, what is the harm in going down to the AHL? Has his agent threatened a return to the Finish League for a few seasons? Getting more minutes and being relied upon every night to produce cannot be looked at as a negative, no matter if it’s in the AHL.

  95. frjohnk says:

    Truth: Yuck.The worst part of that trade is Reinhart was somewhere between failing prospect to a “project” player at the time, at least in my opinion.If he was a legit prospect and had fallen off a cliff after getting here I wouldn’t hold so much resentment towards it.

    Other players available at 14:
    – Barzal
    – Connor
    – Chabot (yes, that one)
    – White
    – Boeser
    – Konecny
    – Beauvillier
    – Aho (available at 14 and 33)

    Edit:Obviously, as Stauffer mentioned, they would have taken Ek and then Carlo.I believe the names available at the time should be mentioned, especially with some of them doing excellent work at the WJC (and some not made available due to playing in the NHL).

    I loved the idea of trading the 16th overall pick along with the 33rd for a young Dmen who was not far away from being a good top 4 option.

    Heck on the day of the trade, I liked the move Chia made for Reinhart. Spent many posts defending Chia and Reinhart. Anybody can go back and check it out.

    Fuck, were Chia, the Oilers and I ever wrong.

    On the day of the trade, the Islanders bloggers, were dancing. They knew that Reinharts JR game had not translated to the AHL, nevermind the NHL. And the Oilers gave up a two very good assets in a deep draft.

    Today, the trade stings in many ways.

    – Reinhart is still nowhere near an NHL job, nevermind a top 4 option.

    – He wont be protected in the expansion draft and next year, if still not good enough for the NHL, he will have to pass through waivers.

    -He has very little value in a trade.

    -those two picks, if they were EK and Carlo would be substantial value for the Oilers, either as players, prospects or even trade chips, as they dont need to be protected for the expansion draft.

    * Now it should be noted that when the trade was made, the expansion of Vegas was not a guarantee, and one can not be shy to try and improve ones team for things that might happen.

    Also, the trade has not really affected the Oilers lineup much this year, but moving forward it will.

    Those 2 prospects would also be great value if the team was looking to bolster the lineup.

    LTs 3 for 1 including lets say EK, our 2017 1st plus a roster player would probably bring something back very decent from a team that is out of the playoffs and looking at protecting more assets in expansion.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Doing it your way is going to systematically overate defense defenders who have their team offensive numbers inflated by their partners

    I can see why you’d say this and you have to use the same techniques that you use for any other WOWY to suss out individual contribution, but Dmen will always be susceptible to the “partner effect”

    That said, are you sure that Klef’s points are “created” offence, or “taken” offence?

    If we quickly look at Talbot (760min) as a good proxy for “off/on” we see this:

    With Klefbom 2.21 GF/60
    Without Klefbom 2.29GF/60

    So if Klefbom creating any goals for or is he just taking points that would have been there?

    Here’s another example:

    2014-2017

    Brent Burns (far right end of the curve of Dman points) over the last 3 years wowy with main goalie:

    With Burns 2.62 GF/60
    Without Burns 1.92 GF/60

    So it looks like Burns creates offence.

    BUT WAIT!!

    Look at his WOWY with Thornton (all GF/60)

    With Burns 3.23
    Without Burns 2.46
    Burns without Thornton 2.20

    Huh.

    So the combo of Burns/Thornton creates more goals than each apart, but when we look at Burns’s overall number of 2.54 GF/60, we *must* credit Thornton with a lot of that.

    Even then, we see Burns getting $7MM/yr at an advanced NHL age and have to ask – is he creating enough offence to justify that?

    What about Burns’ defensive deficiencies?

    Is he creating enough offence to make up for his defensive deficiency?

    GF%
    Burns overall 52.2%
    With Thornton 58.7%
    Without Thornton 48.4%
    Thornton without Burns 60.4%

    Wow.

    So it looks like Burns away from Thorton doesn’t create enough offence to cover for his defensive deficiency, and even Thornton gets a better GF% away from him.

    Is Burns creating offence? Yes, some and he’s one of the best.

    Is he creating enough offence to drive wins (GF%)? Doesn’t look like it.

    Again, this is all 5v5 and Burns is a 5v4 killer (with Thornton) so you have to factor some of that in, but its not as easy as “well he has points, so he creates offence”

  97. Woodguy says:

    stush18:
    Also woodguy is killing it today. Good work amigo

    Thanks

  98. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    WG’s position is easy to verify. Let’s look at the proportion of 5v5 points going to defensemen for the past few seasons.

    I think you missed what I was saying.

    My position is that points are not offence.

    You cannot look at points and immediately attribute offence to a Dman.

    Dmen do not affect ONSH% like forwards do, and besided creating more shots, the next way to create more offence is to score on more of those shots.

    Since Dman do not, as a group, affect ONSH%, their main (only?) contribution to offence is to create more shots.

  99. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I wood love to know what happens when this fired up, awesome version of Wouldguy shows up. Good coffee, a tasty scotch, a big sale (of would of course), getting lucky with Mrs. Wouldguy?

    Haha. Please keep it up.

    P.S. I would be fine with adding Nuge to the wing on a McDavid line at some point. Guys with brains who can keep up:

    Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi anyone?

  100. Rondo says:

    Interesting article.

    “WHL/OHL/QMJHL Does Your Birthdate Matter”

    http://www.dubnetwork.ca/insight/whlohlqmjhl-birthdate-matter/

  101. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy & GMoney,

    Is there any chance of including a volatility stat in your work?

    I mean I can look at the population sizes and their stats and have an idea of how volatile the numbers are, but I don’t think the average layman necessarily does.

    For eg… what is the effect on Davidson’s stats if he’s on for 5 more shots against or 5 more for?…essentially attempting to represent one really bad or really good shift.

    Same for scoring stats… how much does 5×5 rate change if we had one more or one less goal-on-for?

    I don’t think these things are critical to our analyses, but I think they would go a long way to giving the numbers more value to the Joe Sixpacks that neither have the time or inclination to drill down.

    Good idea and I’ll run it by Gmoney.

    I like at least 300 minutes together in each segment to believe it, others (who’s opinion I respect) want more and even don’t believe whole year results.

    Mind you, for some players 300 minutes IS a year’s results in a segment (i.e. TOI vs Elite)

  102. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    I wood love to know what happens when this fired up, awesome version of Wouldguy shows up. Good coffee, a tasty scotch, a big sale (of would of course), getting lucky with Mrs. Wouldguy?

    Haha. Please keep it up.

    P.S. I would be fine with adding Nuge to the wing on a McDavid line at some point. Guys with brains who can keep up:

    Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi anyone?

    Heh.

    The spirit moves me, I do not ask why.

    Also,

    Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi anyone?

    Yes please.

  103. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    On your correlations page that you linked me to the other day, how many times did your run the regression to get the correlations for each metric in each year?

  104. Bag of Pucks says:

    Hope is a good thing:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Thank you for the response and review. Part of my reasoning was based upon LT’s contention that Chiarelli had to be committed to winning now once he traded Hall.

    First off, I think your GM has to be committed to winning 24/7 regardless : )

    That said, I understand the arguments behind that rationale but it’s not one that i heartily subscribe to. It’s the same reason I diverged with those in this community that stated Reinhart had to start in the Top 4 the season he was acquired for that trade to be deemed a success.

    I think assigning arbitrary maturation dates or timelines to asset management practices in a professional hockey environment is a mug’s game, primarily because GMs can simply not prognosticate all the variables with a high degree of certainty to justify underselling assets to fast track success. The only time that seems justifiable is when an org is in that classic ‘missing link’ territory where they are one glaring roster gap away from winning it all.

    Reason being is all it takes is one unexpected injury or one bad season from a key contributor and now your ‘win now at all costs’ house of cards gambit goes up in smoke and all you accomplished is trading your assets for less than optimal market value.

    In short, if Griffin Reinhart were to suddenly trend into Drew Doughty territory, no one would be suggesting that the trade was a failure cos he underperformed in his initial seasons as an Oiler. That very fact undermines the credibility of the ‘Reinhart had to play immediately for the trade to be a success’ argument. It’s always about the quality of what you get vs what you gave up. Everything else is smoke, mirrors and bias.

    The same will hold true for the Hall vs Larsson trade. Any short terms gains the team has realized by better balancing the D may help the case for Adam now, but ultimately he has to become a dominant top pairing shutdown D for the trade to be a wash or win for the Oil (incidentally, this is Chiarelli’s criterion for success not mine – see below for explanation). From an asset management pov, the only aspect of ‘timing’ that should really factor in is the player age and length of term on the players’ contracts.

    It’s why I suspect that history will ultimately judge the Hall/Larsson deal as an overpay by the Oil as the asset they acquired (top pairing defensive defenceman) already potentially existed in the system with Nurse and/or Klefbom. The old saw is you only trade elite offensive talent for elite offensive talent. With that in mind, the return for Hall had to be a D with substantial offensive upside. Anything less was an overpay. You don’t trade Mike Modano for Ken Daneyko with wheels.

  105. trencan says:

    Truth: Yuck.The worst part of that trade is Reinhart was somewhere between failing prospect to a “project” player at the time, at least in my opinion.If he was a legit prospect and had fallen off a cliff after getting here I wouldn’t hold so much resentment towards it.

    Other players available at 14:
    – Barzal
    – Connor
    – Chabot (yes, that one)
    – White
    – Boeser
    – Konecny
    – Beauvillier
    – Aho (available at 14 and 33)

    Edit:Obviously, as Stauffer mentioned, they would have taken Ek and then Carlo.I believe the names available at the time should be mentioned, especially with some of them doing excellent work at the WJC (and some not made available due to playing in the NHL).

    Heh, funny that Oilers signed this year 2 free players on positions mentioned above: Caggiulla (Ek), Benning (Carlo).

  106. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    I know you are not my answer monkey sir, but could you run correlations for Dmen ONSH% year over year for a 5 year sample?

    I was told about some results of something similar but did not see the data.

    I was told there was essentially no correlation.

    If Dmen cannot drive SH%, then they can only drive offense by driving shot attempts.

  107. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy & GMoney,

    Is there any chance of including a volatility stat in your work?

    I mean I can look at the population sizes and their stats and have an idea of how volatile the numbers are, but I don’t think the average layman necessarily does.

    For eg… what is the effect on Davidson’s stats if he’s on for 5 more shots against or 5 more for?…essentially attempting to represent one really bad or really good shift.

    Same for scoring stats… how much does 5×5 rate change if we had one more or one less goal-on-for?

    I don’t think these things are critical to our analyses, but I think they would go a long way to giving the numbers more value to the Joe Sixpacks that neither have the time or inclination to drill down.

    Here’s Trouba from last year and his TOI vs each segment:

    456:35 Elite
    484:21 Middle
    452:53 Gritensity

    If you put a gun to my head and asked “can I bet on his results these repeating?” the quick answer is no.

    I want 2 years of data and then 3+ to look for trends.

    In the meantime we can watch the small samples grow into big samples and discuss the early returns.

  108. rickithebear says:

    Since the start of last season:

    There are 66 players who have 30G 70P top 90

    1 team Has 5 Forwards
    WSH: Ovechkin; Backstrom; Oshie; Williams; Johansson; Avg 40G 43A 83P

    5 teams have 4 forwards:
    CHI: Toews; Kane; Panarin; Anisimov; Avg 43G 59A 102P
    PIT: Crosby; Malkin; Kessel; Hornquist; Avg 44G 56A 100P
    EDM: Mcdavid, Lucic; Draisatl; Eberle: Avg 32G 51A 82P
    NYR: Stepan; Miller; Krieder; Zuccarello; Avg 34G 46A 80P
    OTT: Hoffman; Stone; Ryan; Brassard; Avg 34G 45A 79P

    6 Teams Have 3 Forwards
    DAL: Benn; Seguin; Spezza; Avg 46G 61A 107P
    PHI: Giroux; Voracek; Schenn; Avg 39G 52A 92P
    CGY: Gaudreau; Monohan; Backlun; Avg 37G 50A 87P
    FLD: Barkov; Trochek; Jagr; Avg 36G 48A 84P
    CBJ: Atkinson; Saad; Hartnell; Avg 41G 42A 83P
    NJD: Hall; Palmieri; Henrique; Avg 38G 43A 81P

    Top end Talent?

  109. stevezie says:

    Woodguy: That said, are you sure that Klef’s points are “created” offence, or “taken” offence?…

    So if Klefbom creating any goals for or is he just taking points that would have been there?

    Yeah… but there is still a lot of value to someone who is better at taking what is there. “Anyone” can play with McDavid and look good, but some people will look better and help McDavid look good too. Maybe Burns is picking low hanging fruit left there by Thornton, but at the end of the day his baskets have more peaches than anyone else.

    It looks like you’re debating “creating”, and that’s a good conversation, but it still feels to me you and Tyler are underrating actual goals, aberrant events though they be.

  110. Lowetide says:

    I heard Georges is WGs answer monkey, pass it on!

  111. Georges says:

    Woodguy:
    Georges,

    WG’s position is easy to verify. Let’s look at the proportion of 5v5 points going to defensemen for the past few seasons.

    I think you missed what I was saying.

    Yep. Looks like I did. I like what the % numbers showed on defensemen, though. Simple. To the point. Forwards generate more of the offense than defensemen.

    My position is that points are not offence.

    You cannot look at points and immediately attribute offence to a Dman.

    That’s a tough one. Not a hill to die on. What’s offense? What are points? How can I attribute offense to anybody? By looking at GF60 while they’re on the ice? Isn’t that going to correlate pretty well with P60? Does a player own his on-ice GF60 but not his point production? Confused.

    Dmen do not affect ONSH% like forwards do, and besided creating more shots, the next way to create more offence is to score on more of those shots.

    Since Dman do not, as a group, affect ONSH%, their main (only?) contribution to offence is to create more shots.

    I’m pretty close to this view right now too. True, as a group, as far as I can see.

    Haven’t done enough work on exceptions. Exceptions are cool.

  112. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Since Dman do not, as a group, affect ONSH%, their main (only?) contribution to offence is to create more shots.

    Chicken or the Egg?

    If the avg high chance shot goes in 5 times more than the avg Low chance shot.

    Is it better to shoot 5 avg perimeter shots by the D or 2 avg High Chance shots from the forwards?
    Probability says 2 High Chance/ Danger shots.

    The answer is whichever yeilds the most shots on net that do not hit the goalie in the Chest; shoulders; glove; Blocker; Pads.
    Ie. 0% chance of going in!

    0 chance shots have zero goal data value.
    all the variance in goals you see from Shot by Distance comes from the small data set of shots that target the open area of the net.
    the closer you are;
    the better targeting.;
    the better the chance of hitting an open area.
    once you get too close to the net;
    the targeting ability reduceses.

    Part of the open hole Affect is also reaction time for a goalie.
    the quicker the : release time and Velocity.
    the less time for goalie movement.
    But sacrificing Open targeting for these other factors are a waste of pocession.

    I have over the years looked at the process of goalie movement; from side to side.
    blocker and glove movement.
    The key is to target areas that require an unnatural physical movement of Legs; Arma and hands to further expose open hole options.

    Try moving your hand like a goalie and figure out which positions allow for wrist rotation versus arm movement.

    PS. try the unorthodox glove position that came from Sweden.

  113. stevezie says:

    I caught Gregor talking about the Reinhart trade the other day. He said that while it was a bad trade, but it hasn’t affected the Oilers on the ice this year so it’s easier to forgive.

    I started yelling at my windshield, who is much wiser now.


    It has affected us on the ice profoundly. Conversations that focus on Barzal miss the point (and not just because of Carlo). We were in a gunfight, surrounded and desperately low on ammo, and we spent two bullets shooting at a bird. The reason Hall for Larsson happened is we desperate as drowning for a rhD and everyone knew it. Even people who like the trade admit it was an overpay made from weakness.

    Trading those picks was the smart play because the pipeline could take the hit and we had a need. When it was a complete and total miss we suddenly had no more pieces we didn’t need. Any trade would hurt. Moreover, the need was exacerbated- every potential trade partner walked into the negotiations to find us over a barrel and waiting.

    It fucked the season and put us in the loser’s seat in any trade negotiation (“Sorry Peter, I’m holding firm at 1 for 1 because I don’t think you can afford to say no.”) That shows up on the ice Gregor you maniac what the hell are you talking about I thought you were smarter than this and now I’ve just rear-ended an unmarked Crown Vic sonovabitchGodblessedcussinsonofabitch!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHY GOD?????????

    By trading for Reinhart, we didn’t trade for the guy we needed.

    Parents, teach your children about opportunity cost- especially when it comes to jobs, tv shows and lovers. It’s a life-changing concept, and it could prevent you from saying something stupid on the radio.

  114. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    I heard Georges is WGs answer monkey, pass it on!

    This guy goes into a bar with a monkey on his shoulder and orders a beer and a whiskey, he takes a sip of Guinness and gives the monkey the whiskey. The monkey knocks back the whiskey. The guy then punches the monkey square in the face knocking it to the floor. The monkey gets up moves to the front of the guy, unzips his trousers and begins to perform oral sex on him, when finished the monkey slowly climbs back on to the guy’s shoulder.

    The Barman and another customer had been watching the whole event.

    The barman then approaches the guy and asked him if can he have a go with his monkey. The guy says no problem and places the monkey on the barman’s shoulder the barman sets up the drinks as before takes a sip of the Guinness and gives the monkey the whiskey. On finishing the whiskey the barman punches the monkey who proceeds to carry out the sexual act as before.

    At this point the other customer comes forward and says in a shy embarrassed manner “Excuse me sir, but I have been watching you and your monkey, do you think it would be possible for me to try?” Once again being an obliging chap the guy says “No Problem” the customer then says “Great but there’s just one condition,”

    “What’s that?” enquires the guy.

    The customer responds, “You must promise not to hit me as hard as you hit the monkey !”

  115. Jethro Tull says:

    stevezie: Parents, teach your children about opportunity cost- especially when it comes to jobs, tv shows and lovers. It’s a life-changing concept, and it could prevent you from saying something stupid on the radio.

    The thing about opportunity cost is that it’s largely always in hindsight.

    Pete took a swing and a miss, 3 off the tee. But his short game’s pretty good. I suspect it was the last of the old regime’s deals that wasn’t as much already made, but there for him to just say yes.

    As there is a philosophy of opportunity cost, there is one where it doesn’t really matter about the results of individual transactions. Chia makes a lot of transactions, so net result is what he’s shooting for. Lost on that, but came up big on the NCAA kids.

    I’ve posted a few times, research Chia’s deals when he first went to Boston. Lots of stepping stone players and lots of misses with some absolute home runs.

  116. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Hello Mr. TheBear,

    Hope all is well with you and your family.

    Everything you describe is true and driven by forwards.

  117. rickithebear says:

    WG:

    Had an interesting discussion with 3 WHL scouts from other teams during Xmas.
    They had their craw up cause one of them knew me from a High danger shot discussion from 6 years ago.

    I conveyed to them that analytics with out mechanics of play; thought; had no more merit than just visual.

    Stated that you can identify types of players that successful paired with other types.
    that the visual scouting and analytics said they should work together symbiotically.
    All 4 of us then said at the same time, “but they f….. don’t”
    All 4 of us laughed!

    One interesting Discussion that did occur was my belief in an NFL GM’s Comment.
    You do not draft the best of the player but the expected worst of a player.

    Having played Football; Soccer; Rugby.
    The occurance of restart play exists in all 3.
    What is refered to phase play.
    A shot with a rebound takes you to 2nd phase.

    Great teams thru fitness and physical/Mental Skill have phase repeatability.
    Canada in rugby can play tight and repeatable as a group to 4-5 phase.

    South Africa; NZ can play to 10-15 phases.
    It is about when does the ability of a player deteriorate.
    What is his repeatability.

    I talked with one of the scouts and he mentioned a young man who went undrafted.
    He was signed by a team.
    the WHL Scout asked the teams scout why they chased him.
    It was his repeatability of Play.
    No drop off!

    I think this is a very new critical analysis of players!

  118. Bag of Pucks says:

    stevezie,

    What is the opportunity cost with tv shows?

    Btw, the only reason we have an opportunity cost associated with lovers is because humans continue to cling to old fashioned cultural mores associated with monogamy and fidelity.

    In my experience, having a lover doesn’t diminish your market value with other prospects. If anything, it increases it. What separates the lothario from the henpecked is the former’s willingness to act on opportunity while the latter prefers to moan about greener grass elsewhere.

    Chris Rock summarizes it best. “A man is as faithful as his options.” I think the same holds true for the ladies. I’ve said to my wife before, ‘Hon, if Johnny Depp wants to squire you away to his island paradise, not only will I not stand in your way, I will fully support you. Just make sure my hush money payment is seven figures minimum!” : )

  119. dustrock says:

    stevezie,

    Sure, it may looks like i overpaid for these magic beans, but just you wait until I plant them! Then you’ll see! You’ll all seeeeeeeee

  120. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    rickithebear,

    Hello Mr. TheBear,

    Hope all is well with you and your family.

    Everything you describe is true and driven by forwards.

    As well as the counter attack from Block; Misses; Giveaways; that lead to A corsi against.

    Had the best Visual/analytics discussion at Xmas.

    Heard teams are taking a vary needed step in analytics.
    Cause tracking allows them to check repeatability!

    It is the next level!

  121. verite says:

    As I have consistently said, Chiarelli is an abject incompetent.
    The meltdown of the Oilers is a testimonial to that. Compare them to the ascendant Canucks, a team built on structure , goaltending and functional defenseman.
    As I have always asserted the incompetent Chiarelli did not flush the garbage out of the Oilers last summer, instead he dithered and then overpaid for mediocrity, see Hall trade.
    Watch the Oilers implode this month. One doubts they will win more than 2 or 3 games, look for another loss tonight, as the heartless and gutless still play huge roles on this team.
    But this blog defends him endlessly. And most of the posters wallow in meaningless data instead of simply watching the games. When did Eberle last win a board battle? Or when did RNH ever win a game for the Oilers win a winning goal or assist? Why is Hendricks ever allowed to dress?
    The answer is Chiarelli is an abject incompetent. Keep repeating it endlessly.

  122. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    That’s a tough one. Not a hill to die on. What’s offense? What are points? How can I attribute offense to anybody? By looking at GF60 while they’re on the ice? Isn’t that going to correlate pretty well with P60? Does a player own his on-ice GF60 but not his point production? Confused

    I’m not dying on the hill, but it think it’s crucial to player evaluation, especially in “what to pay them”

    Points get Dmen paid, and I’m not sure that’s even close to being correct or efficient.

    I don’t think offence is a mystery.

    Shots volume x sh% = goals

    You *must* effect one of the other (the elite effect both) in order to drive offense.

    The team (other 4 players) must get more goals with you than without you in order to drive offense.

    Sussing that out of the data with any amount of confidence is the key and I’m not sure I can do that, but GF/60 WOWY seems to be the easiest way to figure it out.

    Accounting for QoC and QoT inside of that which is what drives me nuts.

    I think global looks at each Dman’s WOWY with the centers is a good place to start.

    Even then GF/60 is inferior to CF/60 due to goal variance so maybe basic CF/60 is fine?

    Edit: Re: points vs GF/60

    I think a player “owns” both, but my point is “which one matters more?”

    Example (assume GA/60 is equal):

    Player X gets 1pts/60 (big for a Dman)

    Player Y gets 0.50pts/60

    When Player X is on the ice the team gets 2.19 GF/60

    When Player Y is on the ice with the same players in the same ratios, the team gets 2.63 GF/60.

    Which player is more valuable?

    We know player X makes over 5MM/yr and player Y probably makes under 4MM/yr.

    Which one is actually more valuable to the team?

  123. verite says:

    Moderation is censorship.
    Verite is truth

  124. Zelepukin says:

    rickithebear: It is the next level!

    I agree with repeatability or consistency for that matter. In a way, it’s always been there. It’s what made veterans, veterans. Repetition and reliability.

    The next level is converting that from an individual execution to the team game. This is why Columbus has been so effective. They’ve had that consistency coming from every player, in all aspects of the game. Making smart decisions, sticking to systems, tempo, effort etc. You don’t even notice which line is 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th or which d-pairing is out there.

    This is why guys like Poo and Ebs get so much flack, it’s because they are inconsistent in different areas. Some nights its passing, some nights it’s effort along the boards. How frequently are they dialled in? The game is evolving, the margin from worst to best is getting smaller and you have to do everything better.

  125. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    So, a “high, low end?”

    Interesting

  126. commonfan14 says:

    Remember when we “had” to trade Yak for nothing because he only produced with McDavid and couldn’t play there because Ebs was always going to have that spot?

    I still do.

  127. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw, don’t know how relate-able it is, but I thought a numbers/analytics crowd would get a mild kick out of this.

    My 21 year old son is, for lack of a better word, a serious ‘player.’ As his father, I’m both fascinated and more than a tad envious of his production in this arena.

    Naturally, his mother would prefer he be far more monogamous, so we’ve had some discussions with him on this (ostensibly to discourage the sleeping around). My efforts in this regard are half-hearted at best.

    What’s fascinating to me is how he perceives the ‘opportunity cost’ To him, there is none. Dating is pure and simple a number game, and the more hooks he has in the water, the more opportunities those represent to catch more fish and thus ultimately, the best fish. Rejection is meaningless to him, and in fact as an outcome, is actually useful in his mind as it reduces the ‘non-starter’ pool. As near as I can tell, he has zero fear of rejection in this setting. By stark contrast, he is absolutely paralyzed with fear of failure when it comes to making his longterm vocation choice. Figure that one out psych majors.

    Now A) he’s a good looking lad & B) 21st century millenial mores and modern tech are big boons to this lifestyle, but seriously, this kid approaches dating like Eakins embraced coaching for corsi. It’s astounding to me.

    And, naturally, the big caveat I stress with him continually is STDs. He knows if you’re going to play the field, you have to wear your glove.

    Amazing the paradigm shift to me on these behavioral predispositions in the space of a single generation. And how these things break on a nature vs nurture spectrum. His older brother is totally monogamous with his steady and would never consider a similar lifestyle to his bro.

  128. sliderule says:

    Was the Tyler Benson scratch a “healthy scratch”.

  129. kinger_OIL says:

    rickithebear,

    – All is this is true, however you donèt account for the effect that a D creates by taking a shot on goal from the blue-line: the rebound, the chaos, the subsquent opportunity for a quick pass back and forth

    – A shot from the point might not be a high percentage scoring opportunity, but every team is happy to have D take shots, as it leads to positions that make the other team uncomfortable.

  130. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Was the Tyler Benson scratch a “healthy scratch”.

    Nope. I asked Corey Graham today on the Lowdown and he said both Oilers medical and Giants doctor agreed he needed a rest day. That is all we got.

  131. Lowetide says:

    Maroon scored.

  132. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Love the mile wide smile on Maroon’s face when he scores.

    Don’t let off the damn gas, oilers

  133. OilClog says:

    Feeling good about a lead, never fear Remendas here to piss all over it.

  134. Zelepukin says:

    What’s the record for the fastest Gordie Howe hat trick?

  135. Zelepukin says:

    just a mess in our own zone since the goal.

  136. Lowetide says:

    Don’t fight Chara. Glad Maroon grabbed him and held on.

  137. Ice Sage says:

    verite:
    As I have consistently said, Chiarelli is an abject incompetent.
    The meltdown of the Oilers is a testimonial to that. Compare them to the ascendant Canucks, a team built on structure , goaltending and functional defenseman.
    As I have always asserted the incompetent Chiarelli did not flush the garbage out of the Oilers last summer, instead he dithered and then overpaid for mediocrity, see Hall trade.
    Watch the Oilers implode this month. One doubts they will win more than 2 or 3 games, look for another loss tonight, as the heartless and gutless still play huge roles on this team.
    But this blog defends him endlessly. And most of the posters wallow in meaningless data instead of simply watching the games. When did Eberle last win a board battle? Or when did RNH ever win a game for the Oilers win a winning goal or assist? Why is Hendricks ever allowed to dress?
    The answer is Chiarelli is an abject incompetent. Keep repeating it endlessly.

    Shoulda taken the blue pill, buds.
    Anything constructive?

  138. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: DON’T TELL ME HOW TO FELL

    If anybody knows how to fell it’s a woodguy!

  139. Centre of attention says:

    Oilers need to wake the f*ck up. It’s not just the D now. All 5 skaters just super passive. Nobody challenges puck carrier. Wake up.

  140. Centre of attention says:

    Ugh.

  141. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Oil really rolling over again, flu bug going around? Early but seems like 2 garbage efforts in a row

  142. Centre of attention says:

    I saw that coming from a million miles away. Oilers playing terrible. They seriously parked the bus 3 minutes in after Maroon scored.

  143. jake70 says:

    Bruins playing keep away.

  144. stevezie says:

    Jethro Tull,

    My point about opportunity cost was directed at Gregor, not Chia.

  145. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Looks like men against boys for the second game in a row, this might be a short one

  146. Centre of attention says:

    Its not just one whipping boy tonight.

    I don’t know if there’s something in the Gatorade or what but the whole damn team needs to wake up.

  147. Lowetide says:

    Oilers took about 10 minutes off this period, absolutely amazing. Maroon to the box, and they simply got nothing done until around the 11 minute mark. The club needs some more NHL forwards.

  148. Centre of attention says:

    Couple decent shifts in a row now.

  149. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Corsi numbers should look worse than the 20-8 first period Columbus beat into them. Dunno, must be Sekera’s flu spreading.

  150. stevezie says:

    Bag of Pucks: What is the opportunity cost with tv shows?

    When i was a boy i thought That 70s Show was okay. Nothing revolutionary, but a perfectly passable way to spend half an hour. At some point i realised there was enough brilliant, beautiful art out there that i could spend the rest of my life on it- that every episode of That 70s Show was an episode of Seinfeld, Community, or Twilight Zone i wasn’t watching (and might never get to see). Not to mention it could have been a new favourite movie, or album, or book, not to mention the millions of amazing active experiences i was giving up.

    Mediocre (or even pretty good) tv is a good way to kill time. That is not an endorsement.

    I agree with you completely on the other thing. But even then, only so many hours in a day…

  151. nelson88 says:

    Bruins must have won 16 in a row while I wasn’t paying attention. Only elite teams make the Oil look this bad

  152. russ99 says:

    Man, a little fire from this group would be nice.

    IMO, the players had a really nice holiday break, since we’ve been butter soft since.

    I don’t envy Todd.

  153. Lowetide says:

    Oilers were 4-18 at one point Corsi 5×5, now at 10-23—meaning the Oilers have been about 6-5 since the 11 minute mark or so. Still not great, but holy man that 10 minute sleep was amazing.

    Oilers are terrible in the neutral zone tonight, they are not moving the puck quickly enough, or under control.

  154. Lowetide says:

    Well, if you are Peter Chiarelli there isn’t much about that period that can be a mystery. We know the eastern conference is far better this year, but the club isn’t giving itself a chance. The neutral zone is the dead zone for Edmonton tonight. Lucky to be in the game, need to smarten up. 8-13 shots, 11-26 5×5 Corsi. That is a kicking.

  155. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Zero urgency

    That is all

  156. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I wish Talbot would have covered that puck moments before the B’s scored instead of slapping it away to nobody when the Oilers were running around off a lost face-off.
    Moments later, Bruins score.

    Still happy to get out of that period tied.

  157. Minister D- says:

    Oil looking real bad, again. The breakout is atrocious right now; slow, easily defended.

  158. Zelepukin says:

    They looked like a team of players who have never played with each other before… oh wait.

  159. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Was the Tyler Benson scratch a “healthy scratch”.

    No.

    Core issues.

    Not good

  160. stevezie says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Wildly off topic so I’ll try to keep it brief- your boy is very wise to embrace rejection. Anyone who can master this concept will have success in any field. Plus 90% of the “that guy was a jerk/something much worse” situations in bars come from dicks who can’t handle someone not liking them (I made that number up, but it’s close).

    That said, there is ALWAYS opportunity cost. Both in the small sense and in the large. By going home with Sally he is not even talking to Sue, hope Sally’s worth it. This is actually amplified for good looking charmers, not diminished. Plus his current lifestyle precludes having the kind of relationship his big brother enjoys- possibly ever. How to assess that loss is a question for another venue, I expect.

    This who conversation might be better suited for another venue, but it does explain why only a fool would game for Corsi and why “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” is such a stupid saying. Yes, you need to shoot to score, but obviously not every shot is a good one because you are always choosing that over another option, which is sometimes Jari Kurri alone in the slot.

  161. Woodguy says:

    verite:
    Moderation is censorship.
    Verite is truth

    yeah, you’re whole “this bog defends Chiarelli” is far from truth.

  162. Dino says:

    Love Todd as a coach. I think he’s a very intelligent man. But his breakout strategies are killing me and have been all year. They need to switch it up because it’s obviously not working and too easily thwarted.

    I’ve seen Sekera, a very mobile and good passing defender ring the puck around the boards 3 times in the first period under NO pressure. You can’t tell me this isn’t a coaching strategy.

  163. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy: No.

    Core issues.

    Not good

    Re-aggravation of his previous pelvic injury. I’d almost bet money on it.

  164. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,
    Georges,
    Bruce Wayne,

    This sounds like the perfect place to apply WG’s distinction between scoring (blueline in) and offence (driving possession). Am I remembering that right? I always liked it.

    Sounds like you don’t think Dmen can influence scoring much, even if they can help drive offence. Okay, the Dmen can’t make the forwards better shooters, but they can influence the number/quality of shots the forwards take. If a D-man is good at this, the coach will put him with the good forwards, who will get more/better shots, which will mean more scoring, which will mean more points for the defenceman. So it sounds like while a lack of points might not be damning evidence against a Dman’s offence, an excess of them is still a meaningful positive.

    You can get bad lucked out of points, but the worst you can say about someone who has them is he is good at taking what’s available/setting up skill forwards. That Scott Neidermayer never broke scoring records is not an argument against him, but Erik Karlsson is definitely doing something right.

    Of course, everyone knows Dmen do most of their scoring on the powerplay. Maybe players like Burns might be such outliers it’s barely worth discussing them?

  165. New Improved Darkness says:

    Lucic imposing his personality on Oilers

    “It’s easy to blend in, it’s hard to be the Alpha right off the bat,” said McLellan. “You have to find your own way, you have to find your game. It’s not easy to bark when you’ve got your B game.

    It’s also hard to bark when you’re working Andrew Ference’s old locker … no wait, that’s why they got the new rink.

    So that’s why Tychkowski never mentions Ference even once in the entire piece. Not even his name tag remains.

    What isn’t hard to judge are the attributes that the Oilers saw in Ference, the ones that led them to sign him and later to sew the ‘C’ on his jersey. (source)

    Call me cynical, but I think this medicine has been tried before. Same brand. Probably the same elder-spokesman endgame, too (B/B/B/C/D/F).

  166. Centre of attention says:

    Oilers powerplay.

    Aaaaaaaand Bergeron gets a 2-on-1.

  167. Professor Q says:

    What worries me is that when we see all these new HiRISE GS of people who delve into analytics, like Florida, Toronto, Montréal, Arizona, etc., we also see Edmonton going away from that (seemingly) with some of their firings, even if they use the lingo here and there in public.

  168. Lowetide says:

    2-1 Bruins on some terrible coverage by Edmonton.

  169. Centre of attention says:

    Oilers aren’t even pretending to try right now.

    I would say Peter needs to make a trade but the thought terrifies me.

  170. spoiler says:

    Well that GA might explain why Kassian gets a lot of breakaways.

  171. Lowetide says:

    Maroon scored..

  172. Centre of attention says:

    Maroon is a dandy hockey player,.

    Oilers don’t deserve to be in this game.

    Maroon and Talbot get free dinners for the rest of the season.

  173. verite says:

    Can we just fire Chiarelli between Periods?
    And have take his wretched coach with him?
    These two are incompetent.
    And can the first order of business be to simply release the gutless and heartless core of this team out the door before Becton Tuesday.
    Scorched earth.

  174. verite says:

    Moderation is cegsorship

  175. spoiler says:

    Nice to see there was no chance of a hooking call before Maroon scored.

    That said, we’re damn lucky to be tied.

  176. spoiler says:

    Stupid BJs losing a game late…

  177. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Just tuned in – why are the oilers playing like they are skating on sand?

  178. Gret99zky says:

    Vegas would be crazy not to take Maroon.

  179. Centre of attention says:

    Maroon has 21 goals in 56 games as an Oiler.

    4th round pick and Gernat. Lol.

  180. Centre of attention says:

    Gret99zky:
    Vegas would be crazy not to take Maroon.

    The Oilers will trade Eberle and expose Davidson before letting Maroon get taken.

  181. spoiler says:

    I like how property tax dollars go towards advertising the City of Edmonton to Edmonton Oiler fans. They probably know nothing about the place. Thank your government, people.

  182. Professor Q says:

    How in the Hades was that a penalty?!

  183. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    I like how property tax dollars go towards advertising the City of Edmonton to Edmonton Oiler fans.They probably know nothing about the place.Thank your government, people.

    Haha!! I know. Incredible. At least show us summer videos of the river valley.

  184. spoiler says:

    Lowetide,

    Somebody should probably send a note to their crack corporate branding team.

  185. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide,

    Two words, LT: IP ban.

    Just do it.

  186. Gret99zky says:

    Centre of attention: The Oilers will trade Eberle and expose Davidson before letting Maroon get taken.

    Meh.

    Some will argue Chia should trade Maroon for full value rather than Eberle at fifty cents on the dollar.

  187. spoiler says:

    verite: Can we just fire Chiarelli between Periods?

    I’m pretty sure we can’t even fire him after the game.

    verite:
    Moderation is cegsorship

    Do you really think you have the right to ignore the guidelines for communication and mutual respect in someone else’s living room? You don’t pay for this place, or supply any content other than bilious remarks. What makes you think you get to set the rules? Or that this place is somehow the equivalent of the town square?

  188. Centre of attention says:

    Gret99zky,

    Not saying what I would do, was just speculating on what Chia Pete & company would probably do.

  189. Ice Sage says:

    Looks like the Oilers softened up the CBJ’s and Caps have taken advantage (4-0 Wash after 2).

  190. Bag of Pucks says:

    stevezie,

    Great reply. It may be true that there is always an opportunity cost. But it can also be true that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. AND life doesn’t have to be chocolate or peanut butter choices only? It can be both.

  191. spoiler says:

    JDï™: Just do it.

    lol

  192. Centre of attention says:

    Nuuuuuuuuuuugeeee

  193. Centre of attention says:

    I don’t understand how you can take this one away…

  194. spoiler says:

    The Nuge is Yuuuuuuuuge!

  195. Lowetide says:

    Nuge scores. 3-2 Edmonton.

  196. frjohnk says:

    Centre of attention: Re-aggravation of his previous pelvic injury. I’d almost bet money on it.

    I have dealt with same injury.

    First hurt it in October 2013.
    Took about 20 months to heal. Then I was 100% healthy. Running stairs, playing hockey, lifting weights with regularity. Stretching daily.

    Then hurt it again this fall.

    Back to the drawing board.

    Playing hockey increases a reoccurance big time.

    I’m only 37, but I may need to quit playing hockey. Or take a year off.

    It’s a son of a bitch of an injury.

    I hope Benson did not injury it again.

  197. Lowetide says:

    Kassian is cheating more than any role player since Robert Nilsson tonight. Good lord man.

  198. russ99 says:

    Nice to see Nuge get a garbage goal, considering how hard he’s worked all year and the times when it wouldn’t go in the net,

    Come on boys, bring it home.

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