THE WEIGHT

The job of goaltender is wildly unfair. In my town, the kid who played goalie was both loved and maligned, loved because when he stopped pucks the town team won—and maligned when he didn’t stop anything. The only thing worse than being the goalie? The time one of the forwards ripped a shot off the back of the goalie (Kenny Meier was the goalie) during warmup and the stopper landed in a heap, unable to play. Now who is going to play net? My goodness that shooter was unpopular, I think he went to school in Lashburn after that incident. (I kid, but barely).

Goaltenders at the NHL level generally have an established level of ability. When they don’t play a lot, and are struggling, or done, it makes for some very uneasy and sleepless nights. I have all kinds of time for Jonas Gustavsson today, he was in a tough spot and it did not go well. I am honestly less patient with the general manager, today.

Maybe he got some of that advanced statery that doesn’t tell the truth, or maybe he had a feeling it would work or had a plan for that position to cost a certain amount of cap space. Whatever the reason, enough. Fix it now. Make the call. You owe it to your team.

HOW DID THAT GO IN? YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 2-2-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers after 42, 2015-16: 17-22-3, goal differential -24
  • Oilers after 42, 2016-17: 21-14-7, goal differential +8

It was a weird night, from Leon’s reaction to his goal (hilarious) to the fourth goal against (not hilarious) in a night where the team had enough to grab a point despite it being their third game in four nights. It was a successful road trip, but if this team misses the playoffs by a point or two, this is one of the games I will remember as opportunity missed.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Russell—Larsson went 19-6 in 14:31, second night in a row where the numbers were strong. Russell made a big mistake on the PK, Larsson had an assist and was more effective to my eye. Got back with Klefbom for 3:13 (1-1), too. Went 9-1 against Hoffman—Pageau—Pyatt, 7-1 against Smith—Brassard—Stone, 8-5 versus Dzingel—Turris—Ryan.
  • Klefbom—Gryba went 20-8 in 13:49 together. I keep mentioning this, but Oscar moves up the ice exactly like Serge Savard. It is uncanny. The long and winding road sortie. I love them, and as he gets older Oscar is going to say to hell with this noise and drive to the net, too, I bet. Anyway, they were 9-1 with McDavid. Went 6-1 against Hoffman—Pageau—Pyatt, 2-5 against Smith—Brassard—Stone, 5-3 versus Dzingel—Turris—Ryan.
  • Sekera—Benning were 17-11 in 13:04 together, so much puck moving ability here it is amazing. They went 13-4 with McDavid, I think this pairing might be the best duo to run with the 97 line. Thoughts? Went 8-5 against Hoffman—Pageau—Pyatt, 11-8 against Smith—Brassard—Stone, 3-0 versus Dzingel—Turris—Ryan.
  • Jonas Gustavsson was not good, but it is unfair to expect him to play once a month and be at his best. The Oilers have to find a solution that works.
  • HockeyStats.ca, NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • The real reason to remember this period might be the Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl line emerging. Another fabulous evening, three goals, five points and a complete nightmare all evening for the Sens. Connor McDavid was 25-3 against Erik Karlsson at 5×5, while also going 25-3 against Erik Karlsson at 5×5! Biblical.
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Lander had a good night to my eye, important they could be used 5×5 two nights in a row. I am not against this line staying together until the trade deadline.
  • Lucic—Nuge—Kassian went 15-14 (Lucic) and 9-14 (Kassian) with Nuge. I like 93 a ton, but the trio went -3 and RNH got knocked down a bunch again. I think maybe the WHC robbed him of some energy, hope the break helps him. This is not a checking line, not really, and they played the Brassard line straight up (12-12), but minus three is not acceptable.
  • Pouliot—Caggiula—Eberle went 16-8, I thought Eberle had his best chance in ages (breakaway) but could not cash. This line won the Corsi battle, but posted just two shots on goal. Lots of things not happening, Edmonton needs another center if Leon stays on RW.

LAST 10 GAMES

  1. Connor McDavid 10gp, 2-7-9
  2. Leon Draisaitl 10gp, 2-7-9
  3. Patrick Maroon 1gp, 8-1-9
  4. Andrej Sekera 8gp, 0-6-6
  5. Mark Letestu 10gp, 2-3-5
  6. Matt Benning 7gp, 1-3-4
  7. Milan Lucic 10gp, 2-2-4
  8. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 10gp, 3-1-4
  9. Jordan Eberle 10gp, 0-3-3
  10. Eric Gryba 10gp, 1-2-3
  11. Matt Hendricks 9gp, 1-1-2
  12. Zack Kassian 10gp, 0-2-2
  13. Oscar Klefbom 10gp, 1-1-2
  14. Anton Lander 3gp, 0-2-2
  15. Tyler Pitlick 2gp, 1-0-1
  16. Adam Larsson 10gp, 0-1-1
  17. Drake Caggiula 10gp, 0-1-1
  18. Brandon Davidson 7gp, 0-1-1
  19. Taylor Beck 2gp, 0-0-0
  20. Benoit Pouliot 9gp, 0-0-0
  21. Jesse Puljujarvi 5gp, 0-0-0
  22. Kris Russell 10gp, 0-0-0
  23. Cam Talbot 9gp, 2.04 .932
  24. Jonas Gustavsson 1gp, 4.01 .765
  25. Source

The Oilers have been a one line team during much of these 10 games, while going 6-2-2 (and that is a terrific record, despite leaving a point on the table last night).

LOOCH

Milan Lucic has been consistent offensively this year compared to last, although (as we have discussed) the offense is coming from the power play this year. Here are his splits from last year, in terms of boxcars, and what he has posted so far in 2016-17:

  • 2015-16 Pre All Star: 48gp, 12-17-29 (.604 points-per-game)
  • 2016-17 Pre All Star: 42gp, 10-16-26 (.619 points-per-game)

One of the things I see quite often about Lucic is that he is being gifted opportunities, with McDavid and on the power play. It took quite a long time for Todd McLellan to move off the McDavid—Lucic tandem, but as a duo they were solid (McDavid scored 5×5 2.19/60 with Lucic, and they were 54.2 Corsi for 5×5 together). McDavid way from Lucic is even better (3.44/60 at 5×5 and a Corsi for 5×5 of 55.2), but I think we can agree it is likely we see them back together at some point in the season. Ebbs and flows folks.

  • 2015-16 Post All Star: 33gp, 8-16-24 (.727 points-per-game)
  • 2016-17 Post All Star:

Lucic played with Anze Kopitar much of last season, and should be able to perform well with RNH if he isn’t with McDavid. That said, and we have discussed this before, the big man must improve his 1.09 5×5/60 scoring total. That meager output ranks Lucic No. 277 out of 375 NHL forwards who have played 200 or more minutes.

I am not anti-Lucic, in fact this blog was happy when he signed, and from where I sit the only one that consistently points out things like his strong Corsi with or without McDavid. However, the big man needs to fix the 5×5 scoring.

Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved

THE GOALIE SITUATION

I think we have reached a point where Peter Chiarelli has to address this issue. Surely the only reason to delay it is pure stubbornness by the general manager. The coach rarely plays him, the fans are openly worried on his gameday starts, this is not good. I think Mr. Gustavsson is suffering from not playing, and it is unfair to send him out there once a month to be fed to the lions. We can never really know if a coach and general manager disagree on specific things, but the backup goalie handling has been mighty curious this year.

Peter Chiarelli solved that situation very well in year one, grabbing Anders Nilsson in a small but important trade. I may be the only one who has confidence he can do it again, but I have confidence he can do it again.

In the meantime, bringing up Laurent Brossoit makes sense to me. He has struggled lately, but the sheer number of AHL sorties flown by this player (114 AHL games) makes him qualified to be the backup goalie. Give the AHL net to Gustavsson and Nick Ellis until the deadline, and give some starts to Brossoit as required until a replacement can be found.

I think we all can agree that a coach getting stubborn on a player is one thing, but a general manager getting stubborn on a goalie the coach rarely plays is another. Peter Chiarelli must fix this, losing a playoff spring because of the backup goalie is noxious on the face of it.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A full boat on the show today, as everyone gets rolling after the Christmas holidays. 10 this morning, TSN1260 and scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. The playoff race in the Eastern Conference is as tight as a drum, and the Pacific Division could send five battalions to the front this spring.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. The home teams won, and now we are on to the magical weekend in the NFL where New England finds out who they play in the AFC final.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN 1260. The backup goalie and the Jesse Puljujarvi questions surely have an answer soon.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue plus The SuperFan. We will chat about the week gone by and the one to come, and about Lucic and the hottest Oiler line in many moons. Does it need a nickname? McML? MCD? Don’t know.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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187 Responses to "THE WEIGHT"

  1. papa96 says:

    Hi Lowetide. At least in minor hockey, the only job harder than goaltender may be being the goalie’s dad. What comes close? Being the pitcher’s dad.

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    9 shots or so against the last two periods is hardly “being fed to the lions.” I recognize shot quality, in fact am a huge proponent of it, but man, oh man.

    We knew he wasn’t good enough the day he was signed. One wonders if a deal fell through, as it seemed awfully hurried.

    If we’re playoff bound, there’s no way he’s the backup in April. If Pete doesn’t deal, expect LB to be here. And MA Bergeron to be on an all expenses paid trip to Mars or as far as possible from Talbot. Just in case.

    Was that the half way game? Are you doing a State of the Union, LT?

  3. dessert1111 says:

    I think Chia might have been trying to buy time until the trade deadline to see what shakes loose, avoiding taking on more contracts, etc, but after last night I bet he feels more urgency.

    Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s Gus’ last game in the NHL.

    I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Ellis get the call ahead of Brossoit. Chia signed him and has shown a propensity to give opportunities to his college signings. And his numbers are better this season and they’re about the same age.

  4. Woogie63 says:

    There is no risk to bringing LB up to play 2 of our next 10 games, its time for him to put the cap and gown on and walk across the stage.

  5. papa96 says:

    I wonder if McLellan’s comment “mixed emotions” after last night’s game was a recognition that the loss will force Chiarelli’s hand.

  6. Eastern Oil says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I think this is the oddest part (the numbers in the summer) as the signing was widely panned considering both his track record and the options left out there.

    Someone mentioned that perhaps it was a hedging of bets due to a potential change in goalie equipment? Maybe, but still inexcusable. Go with what has worked and then adapt if needed.

    Cam is getting us wins right now, but I would hate to see him rolling into the first playoffs in 10 years with no gas in the tank.

  7. russ99 says:

    I’m still against bringing up Broissoit, as he’s been up and down in the minors and if he put in 10-15 NHL games with good results, he’d vastly be more appealing to Vegas than Reinhart, and maybe even Davidson, as Brandon hits RFA after next season and will cease to be cheap.

    We”ll need a backup goalie again in 11 days with the back to back at home against Nashville and at Calgary, then again the following midweek at Anaheim and at San Jose, all of which will be tougher competition than the Sens last night.

    We better have another NHL goalie by then.

  8. Generational Poster says:

    Completely agree that the backup G situation needs to be addressed. I wouldn’t be surprised if it isn’t immediate though, given that the Oilers don’t play back to back again until Jan 20/21 and Jan 25/26…and both of those b2b’s are followed by three day breaks.

    Given the goalie deployment this year so far, it wouldn’t shock me if the next game Talbot doesn’t start is Feb 3rd @ CAR (middle game in a 3 in 4 stretch).

    That being said, curious you think are the chances Chia trades for a goalie (for a late pick or something) rather than a call-up, LT? Or does that just awkwardly create a situation of too many goalies in the system?

    Thanks for another great post (as usual)!

  9. Jethro Tull says:

    I think Halak, though his numbers are bad this year, would have been ideal. I’d bet on him rebounding before betting on Gustavsson becoming a goalie in the NHL.

  10. Aitch says:

    I think it’s fair to split the blame between Jonas and Chia. Both of them failed.

    It’s not like Edmonton is the only team running with a true #1 and a back-up that doesn’t see much ice. Columbus has Officer Bobrovsky in the top spot, but his backup, McElhinney has a .926 sv% and a 2.39 GAA and has only played 7 games. the Sharks back-up has only seen the ice 6 times and has a .936 sv% and a 1.98 GAA. Grubauer in Washington also has good numbers despite only starting 8 games thus far. Yes, I’m cherry picking, but to blame the numbers on lack of playing time isn’t necessarily putting the blame where it belongs.

    So, as much as I’m sure Gus is trying his best, his best just isn’t close enough anymore. (…and I could’ve been talked into supporting him after his first couple of appearances.) Last night the team gave him a game on a silver platter and he threw it away.

  11. Woodguy says:

    Peter Chiarelli solved that situation very well in year one, grabbing Anders Nilsson in a small but important trade. I may be the only one who has confidence he can do it again, but I have confidence he can do it again.

    Even Chiarelli’s biggest detractors like Hbomb admit that he’s been very good on the small deals, like the one needed here.

  12. LMHF#1 says:

    The Oilers get a pass for only scoring 5 in two games where they dominated possession? No way.

    Serious lack of execution and scoring depth right now. They clearly threw a ton of pucks away on weak shots especially in the last 2 games. Need to be better when you have control. Create situations that lead to high percentage chances.

  13. Clarkenstein says:

    Rare that a GM costs his team points in the standings but it happened last night. This whole affair has been a cluster and hopefully Chia has more sense than Klowe would have had under these circumstances. I’d give LB a shot to see if he can deliver. If not, then it’s time to move on from him too.

  14. hags9k says:

    Woogie63,

    Is there a risk of him becoming a Golden Knight if he comes up and plays well?

    I wonder if this factors in for PC. It shouldn’t but…

  15. Clarkenstein says:

    LMHF#1:
    The Oilers get a pass for only scoring 5 in two games where they dominated possession? No way.

    Serious lack of execution and scoring depth right now. They clearly threw a ton of pucks away on weak shots especially in the last 2 games. Need to be better when you have control. Create situations that lead to high percentage chances.

    Completely agree with this!!

  16. frjohnk says:

    Aitch:
    I think it’s fair to split the blame between Jonas and Chia. Both of them failed.

    It’s not like Edmonton is the only team running with a true #1 and a back-up that doesn’t see much ice. Columbus has Officer Bobrovsky in the top spot, but his backup, McElhinney has a .926 sv% and a 2.39 GAA and has only played 7 games. the Sharks back-up has only seen the ice 6 times and has a .936 sv% and a 1.98 GAA. Grubauer in Washington also has good numbers despite only starting 8 games thus far. Yes, I’m cherry picking, but to blame the numbers on lack of playing time isn’t necessarily putting the blame where it belongs.

    So, as much as I’m sure Gus is trying his best, his best just isn’t close enough anymore. (…and I could’ve been talked into supporting him after his first couple of appearances.) Last night the team gave him a gave on a silver platter and he threw it away.

    Gus is fucking junk.

    A career save % of .901.

    His goals saved above average for his career is -45.84 FUUUUUUCCCCCCCKKKKKK!!!!!

    He is below a “below replacement goalie.”

    I played with a goalie a few years ago who didnt wear skates, but steel toe boots cause he never tried skating. He allowed juicy rebounds, overcommitted when he went side to side, flopped around, got lit up like a Christmas tree.

    I will forward his number to Chia so Oilers can get an upgrade in the backup spot.

  17. Bruce Wayne says:

    Lucic is playing terribly. That first goal against was at the end of a endless shift in which he stood around and did nothing the entire time and then when the puck finally came to him he aimlessly swatted it right back to the Senators. Meanwhile RNH was working his ass off trying to get the puck back.

    The second goal, he worked hard to get his clay feet back and finally made it (being slow as molasses) and then didn’t cover anyone.

    He’s just awful right now. Adds nothing on offense and terrible on defense. I know he has a track record, but he’s a shadow of the player I remember.

    Larsson, on the other hand, looked good. It helps a lot that the team around him (Lucic excepted) was playing well. He is the kind of player who is going to struggle when the team struggles, but when the team is playing well he won’t hold them back. Solid player. (Now no sane person trades Taylor Hall for a solid player but that is a different story).

  18. frjohnk says:

    Talbot was a fantastic get by Chia. Great job.

    Gus is the opposite. Terrible job by Chia.

    I wonder if the guy who told Chia that Russell was second in the league in controlled zone exits by a Dman, also told Chia that Gus would be a servicable backup.

  19. frjohnk says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    I dont mean to add and pile on Lucic, as I like that he have him ( terrible contract but…..)

    I think I saw on twitter that Lucic has 1 EV point in the last month.

    A second assist on the Gryba goal.

  20. Bruce Wayne says:

    There is no chance Las Vegas takes Broissoit. There will be players with better track records available.

    That said, the Oilers should be hoping Las Vegas takes a goalie. Backup goalie is the only position on the team that doesn’t play, and can be filled easily and almost freely if needed. That Chiarelli managed to screw it up is yet another mark in his growing record.

    On balance the expansion draft is talent neutral, every team is going to lose a player. The teams that lose a goalie win in comparison to the rest of the league. It will be a big win talent wise if Broissoit is taken by Las Vegas.

  21. Woodguy says:

    A shoe may be dropping:

    ‏@Aportzline
    #CBJ recall G Anton Forsberg from @monstershockey. Told G Curtis McElhinney will be placed on waivers at noon today.

    Craig Custance
    ‏@CraigCustance
    If I’m Edmonton I’m taking a long hard look at McElhinney. He’s at .924 this season. $800K salary, UFA after this season.

  22. zatch says:

    Observations from the Canadian Tire Centre last night:
    Gus is bad.
    Lucic needs to be better.
    Loved Benning both as a player and sticking up for Lander, who was being crosschecked repeatedly while down as retaliation for, as far as I can tell, bumping into Wideman. Wideman got destroyed and he deserved it.
    Nuge looked good.
    That top line is amazing.
    Lander did his job well.
    Hendricks is done. Looked slow and old and completely ineffective.
    Russel made me sigh a few times. He’s not…awful, but he’s not good either.
    Sekera deserves so much more love than he gets.
    I am not sold on Caligula. He was ok sometimes, poor others. I would have liked for him to do some time in the A.

    Fun time, Oilers generally dominated outside the first period. Frustrating way to lose.

  23. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy:
    A shoe may be dropping:

    ‏@Aportzline
    #CBJ recall G Anton Forsberg from @monstershockey. Told G Curtis McElhinney will be placed on waivers at noon today.

    Craig Custance
    ‏@CraigCustance
    If I’m Edmonton I’m taking a long hard look at McElhinney. He’s at .924 this season. $800K salary, UFA after this season.

    Nice set of goalies there in Columbus.

    They still have Korpisalo on the farm as well.

  24. Bruce McCurdy says:

    From a goalie’s perspective I hated all four goals against last night. Gus’s lateral movement is poor and when he does get across he’s a leaky boat. First goal went right though him, on the second he just lay on the far side of the net & waved his glove at it, on the third he couldn’t get over in time to cover a 60-foot cross-ice pass, and the fourth went right through him again. The latter two were particularly frustrating in that the team had fought back into a winning position and couldn’t hold the lead for 40 seconds. Similar as what happened in Philly.

    That said, the team had a terrible first period, and a few breakdowns at other times. I can only imagine the hue and cry if that had been Eberle instead of Kassian who stopped skating on the backcheck on the 3-3 goal, Kelly Hrudey would have made a special appearance in the intermission to nail him to the cross, but Kass is a fan favourite (how’d that happen, anyway?) and Gary Galley is an oblivious analyst so nothing much got said. Similarly nothing got said about Hendricks slow clear from right in front on the PP goal, or getting burned in the corner on the game winner. (Mind you I haven’t read the game day thread here, perhaps those things came up in this group.)

    Funny after how cheaply the goals came at both ends in the first two periods, how the Oilers couldn’t buy one in the third. That one sequence where the puck sailed from Condon’s blocker to his catcher and stayed out without him ever having a clue where it was was the moment I knew this wasn’t gonna be our night. Draisaitl in particular had an unbelievable third period but couldn’t cash, and neither could the guys he was setting up with great frequency. That line was unreal: LT lists the Corsi above, but the Fenwick was even more impressive at 23-2 and shots 17-1 for McDavid & Maroon, 2 fewer in each case for Drai.

    Bottom line: 2 points were there for the taking, and the Oilers left both on the table. A very painful loss.

  25. Mattaklap says:

    papa96:
    Hi Lowetide.At least in minor hockey, the only job harder than goaltender may be being the goalie’s dad.What comes close?Being the pitcher’s dad.

    My mom absolutely refused to watch me pitch at any level; she was certain that she was going to have to watch her boy get decapitated (I told her not to worry as she had like 5 other male heirs) so she would pace back and forth under the stands smoking and listening for ambulance sirens. One day she happened to peek out and watch a comebacker rattle bits of bone from my adolescent clavicle.

    Good thing I was tall enough to play first base.

  26. Oddspell says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting move. I can’t help but wonder if Curtis is a product of his team though to be honest.

    Also, what do we do with Gus? Don’t want him taking games from Ellis or Brossoit.

  27. Scungilli says:

    The only way to take the next step is to fill the three holes and begin improving on players whenever possible. And as McLellan keeps saying for the guys getting top cheddar to step up.

    I try to be reasonable when judging players and what their expected outcomes should be given their pay grade, but I can’t settle with players that continually make weak plays. A bottom tier player should still be competent in skating and puck handling, the difference being offensive ability, which is a combo of skill, creativity, vision and daring. The offense is the rare thing.

    JG is not an NHL level goalie. He’ll do great in Europe I’m sure. Gryba is not good enough, and as much as his hits are really top notch, continually giving the puck back in the O zone and his skating just aren’t NHL level on a good team. I also thought Russel puck watching on the 4th goal isn’t acceptable for a veteran who is getting paid pretty well for a defensive type. He needs to be a rock to justify paying him that, and he isn’t to my eye. That Benning is far better speaks loud and clear for me.

    Lucic, Eberle and Nuge need to get some fire. They is no passion in their games. They need to be far more aggressive/assertive attacking. It’s the difference between them and Leon and Connor. Even Caggiula is harder on the puck and causing more issues for the opponent. Pouliot was good for a third line winger, but he also needs to get his mojo back, I think his wings got clipped a bit too much.

    The games are far better and actually watchable this year, and these are good team issues. Not much to do, I am at the point that it is fair to say the time is now. There is no reason this team has to wait another season to get it together. Everyone has had enough time, so if we start next season with issues we can suss out here, that’s it for me and Pete. Makes me nervous thinking about it, I hope he makes some good decisions on the big things too. This could be a really special team.

  28. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    A shoe may be dropping:

    ‏@Aportzline
    #CBJ recall G Anton Forsberg from @monstershockey. Told G Curtis McElhinney will be placed on waivers at noon today.

    Craig Custance
    ‏@CraigCustance
    If I’m Edmonton I’m taking a long hard look at McElhinney. He’s at .924 this season. $800K salary, UFA after this season.

    I’d trade a 7th round pick for him before 10 o’clock.

    Related: WTF is Columbus doing?? Unhappy with how things are going?

  29. Primetime says:

    Woodguy,

    ColumbusBlueJackets ‏@BlueJacketsNHL 43m43 minutes ago
    Curtis McElhinney has been placed on waivers by #CBJ. Markus Hannikainen is reassigned to Cleveland.

    There you go…wonder if Chia called about a trade and CBJ trying to see if they can open up a space on the 50 man first…

  30. Woodguy says:

    Like Custance said, McElhinney has a .924 (all situations) this year.

    McElhinney had a bad game on Saturday, 5 goals against and a 0.853 SV

    If Gus put up a .0853 yesterday then that’s 2.5 GA, not 4.

    Also,

    Goals Saved Above Average/60 using this season and the last two seasons worth of shots, saves and goals (all situations, 1940+ min)

    Player GSAA/60
    CAM.TALBOT +0.291 – rank 8/62
    CURTIS.MCELHINNEY -0.019 – rank 37/62
    JONAS.GUSTAVSSON -0.323 – rank 60/62 (only Lindback and Scrivens lower)

    Certainly an ungrade on Gus.

    I guess we’ll see if Peter engineered this.

  31. Woogie63 says:

    Rominiuk and Cole were very hard to list to this weekend, neither seemed to know the Oiler players. Benning and Hopkins and Lander and Letestu were messing with these announcers.

  32. Bruce Wayne says:

    McElhinney’s career save percentage is .905, which isn’t good but is better than Jonas.

    However, going back ten years is not measuring the player.

    The past four years on Columbus, both good and not good teams, his save percentage is .909. That’s what you should expect. It is below average but above replacement. A reasonable number for a backup to have.

  33. linkfromhyrule says:

    Woodguy: Like Custance said, McElhinney has a .924 (all situations) this year.
    McElhinney had a bad game on Saturday, 5 goals against and a 0.853 SV
    If Gus put up a .0853 yesterday then that’s 2.5 GA, not 4.

    You have to think TOR takes a long look at him. Oil are not in a good position for waiver pickups unfortunately..

  34. LMHF#1 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’d trade a 7th round pick for him before 10 o’clock.

    Related: WTF is Columbus doing?? Unhappy with how things are going?

    They have 4 NHL-capable (backup at minimum) goalies, and are getting rid of the 1 old one. Why is that surprising?

  35. Woodguy says:

    Oddspell:
    Woodguy,

    Interesting move. I can’t help but wonder if Curtis is a product of his team though to be honest.

    Also, what do we do with Gus? Don’t want him taking games from Ellis or Brossoit.

    I posted his GSAA – Goals Saved About Average.

    That takes into account shot quality as far as Manny Elk figures it, from Corsica.Hockey

    Takes the league average SV% on the same quality of shot on each goal and save the goalie makes and then adds them all up and compares the goalie to “10 year league average”

    Best tool we have to remove “team effect” on SV%, and superior to 5v5 SV% imo for rating goalies.

  36. kinger_OIL says:

    – This is a great post LT: LT says: “Jonas Gustavsson was not good, but it is unfair to expect him to play once a month and be at his best”

    – Indeed. Take a look at all the goalies that have played less than 10 games (and exclude the one that have played a game). Guess what: they are most likely going to suck.

    – Sure the Monster hasn’t been great this year. But all his games are 2nd’s of B2B’s. He let in 2 power play goals in 1st period: hardly a way to ease into game after not playing for weeks

    – The issue is by far skewed to not playing the back-up very much (as goalies who play less than once every 10 days are more likely to suck than not).

    – The issue is not putting the back-up in a position to succeed, far more than whether he is good or not. So the next back-up, I would assume he will play more games, and there is a correlation between games played and quality starts.

    – I’d love to get the SV% of 2nd of B2B’s: suspect the Monster is in the range.

    – I blame coaching as much as Monster for performance.

  37. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LMHF#1: They have 4 NHL-capable(backup at minimum) goalies, and are getting rid of the 1 old one. Why is that surprising?

    Just seems odd a team sailing along in first place would waive their long-time backup after 1 bad game, while here in Good Old Ourtown it’s just business as usual.

  38. Woodguy says:

    Jethro Tull:
    I think Halak, though his numbers are bad this year, would have been ideal.I’d bet on him rebounding before betting on Gustavsson becoming a goalie in the NHL.

    Halak is 7/62 in the GSAA over the last 3 years.

    If it wasn’t for his price tag someone would have grabbed him.

    Very tough for any team to shoehorn in a $4.5MM goalie in the middle of the season via waivers.

    I think is a very, very good bet that LAS takes him in the expansion draft if he’s not dealt before that.

    A good goalie can be the reason a middling to lower end team makes the playoffs.

    Halak once took a meh MTL team to the conference finals…..

  39. frjohnk says:

    I fired up today with the backup goaltending situation.

    Oilers dominated the Sens last night.

    Sens goalie played well, but he did not stand on his head.

    Our goalie let in 4 goals on 17 shots.

    Yikes.

    Here is another stat from corsica looking at “goals saved above average”.

    Out of the 116 goalies who have played more than 1000 minutes since 2009.

    Gus is 114th with a – 59.85 goals saved above average.

    If we play this guy again, might as well put Ference back on the ice too.

  40. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    There is no chance Las Vegas takes Broissoit.There will be players with better track records available.

    That said, the Oilers should be hoping Las Vegas takes a goalie.Backup goalie is the only position on the team that doesn’t play, and can be filled easily and almost freely if needed.That Chiarelli managed to screw it up is yet another mark in his growing record.

    On balance the expansion draft is talent neutral, every team is going to lose a player.The teams that lose a goalie win in comparison to the rest of the league.It will be a big win talent wise if Broissoit is taken by Las Vegas.

    Agreed. Would love it if Vegas took LB but the chances of that happening are almost zero. There will be real, experienced NHL goalies available.

  41. Woodguy says:

    hags9k:
    Woogie63,

    Is there a risk of him becoming a Golden Knight if he comes up and plays well?

    I wonder if this factors in for PC.It shouldn’t but…

    Seeing as Ellis is putting up a .923 while Broisssoit puts up a .909 is it much of a loss?

    I know Talbot put up a .902 in the AHL one year (22gp), but he played 93 more AHL games after that season and was putting up a .924 when he got called up by NYR.

    The only worry I have about Broissoit is whether or not he’s capable of being a back up for the Oilers.

    He’d be way, way, way, way down the list of goalies LAS takes in the expansion draft given how many goalies with much better track records will be exposed.

    Yes LAS need to pick up 2 AHL goalies too, but Brossoit will require waivers next year to get sent to the AHL.

    I just don’t see it.

  42. frjohnk says:

    kinger_OIL: The issue is not putting the back-up in a position to succeed

    The issue is not putting the team in a position to succeed.

    Gus has a history of being at replacement or below replacement.

    0.902
    0.89
    0.902
    0.879
    0.907
    0.911
    0.908
    0.878

    Those are his save % stats per season since 2009.

    Just to get to league average save % since 2009, he would have allowed 59 less goals.

    Wow!

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’d trade a 7th round pick for him before 10 o’clock.

    Related: WTF is Columbus doing?? Unhappy with how things are going?

    The blue jackets have ridiculous goaltending depth. Not sure why they’re doing this now, but he’s simply not in their long term plans.

  44. knighttown says:

    In all my life I have never seen a poorer game production than CBC/SN put on last night with Bob Cole and Garry Galley. Let me preface this by saying I’m 41 and Bob Cole was the voice of my youth. I LOVE his voice. But there’s a professional standard that must be met to be a national televisor.

    Back to Cole. He can’t do it anymore and more importantly, doesn’t want to do it. He spent the first half of the game mumbling about how “nothing is happening” and “they just keep dumping it in and clearing it out”. He clearly hates what has happened to the game (as do I frankly) but it certainly doesn’t make it more enjoyable for the listener.

    Secondly, he clearly did NO homework and had simply terrible recognition of the Oilers players. He wasn’t just getting Letestu and Eberle mixed up it was getting Lucic and Benning mixed up. And most of the time he didn’t even try. “And McDavid passes it to the Oiler”.

    If you watch enough games there is a signature (the way they stand, skate, carry the puck etc) with each player and in addition, there are patterns with the lines. My internal radar goes off instantly when i see someone that isn’t where he’s supposed to be (with his line etc). And the Oilers signatures are very clear.

    The only two mixups I can understand are McDavid and Pouliot as their signatures are quite similar. Maaaybe Ebs and Letestu. And Davidson and Benning are still a bit generic so it can take a second to recognize them. But if you don’t know Lucic, Kassian, Nuge (bent over), Drai, Klefbom and Sekera you just aren’t watching enough. I get it. I’m like that with a team like the Sens. They all look the same. That’s why professional announcers must look at a ton of video. And he clearly didn’t.

    And then there was Galley (and his producers). I totally get calling Chris Wideman Dennis once. He’s just more well known. Like Lance Pitlick…it’s forgivable. But when it goes on for 5 minutes a) you know Galley thinks it is Dennis and b) his producers or whomever is in his ear piece are fast asleep and obviously don’t care.

    And the Lead stories in the intermission were just the cherry on top.

  45. frjohnk says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 49s50 seconds ago

    The #Oilers have assigned Jesse Puljujärvi to the @Condors, recalled Anton Slepyshev & placed Jonas Gustavsson on waivers.

    3 good moves in one day.

  46. LMHF#1 says:

    frjohnk:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 49s50 seconds ago

    The #Oilers have assigned Jesse Puljujärvi to the @Condors, recalled Anton Slepyshev & placed Jonas Gustavsson on waivers.

    3 good moves in one day.

    I can hear the heads exploding from here. What a waste the first half of the season has been contract-wise.

    Glad to see Slepyshev back with the club though, and a goalie likely incoming.

  47. Diablo says:

    I have no problem with any of the moves that Chia has made, except Gus – he sucks, full stop. He has always sucked. He has never been a good goalie at the NHL level, not once, ever. I don’t buy this excuse that because he was put in a tough spot because he hasn’t played since December – then what exactly is he doing in practice – picking his nose? Driving the zamboni? Cleaning out Talbot’s jock?

    For a guy his size, leaves a lot of the net uncovered. He plays too deep in the net, and then compensates with a bizarre tendency to drop down and reach forward for the puck, almost like a baseball player. It would be comical, if it wasn’t for the fact that he plays net for us. He can’t move laterally at all – whoever told Chia that Gus could handle the backup duties should be fired for incompetence. I don’t feel bad for the guy at all – he has made a lot of money in NHL for a long time by being tall, with absolutely no talent to play goal at all.

    Gus was abysmal last night. He was just as bad in Philly. No more excuses, lets call a spade a spade shall we? He sucks and Chia needs to fix a problem which he created. McElhiney is on waivers – he’s better than Gus. Ask NYI to recall Halak, and pick him up on recall waivers. Ask Winnipeg to do the same with Pavelec, if NYI doesn’t want to play ball. He have the cap space. Or simply recall one of Brossoit or Ellis when a B2B is on the schedule. Any one of these options is better than starting Gus again.

    If Gus hasn’t played his last game in the NHL, then this management team just doesn’t care about winning.

  48. Diablo says:

    frjohnk:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 49s50 seconds ago

    The #Oilers have assigned Jesse Puljujärvi to the @Condors, recalled Anton Slepyshev & placed Jonas Gustavsson on waivers.

    3 good moves in one day.

    Finally.

  49. Roughneck says:

    “and Gary Galley is an oblivious analyst so nothing much got said.”

    I agree with Bruce. Galley is compounding levels of clueless. Painful even.

    The backup gig in Edmonton reminds me of several Flames seasons. Ride Kipper to the show, Kipper is exhausted, lose in round one. Rinse, repeat… for years. One of the compelling conundrums in it all is that Kipper thrived on a ton of work, when he sat around a bit in favour of an adequate backup his game somewhat vanished, others may see it differently, but rust finds the workhorse an easy mark in some cases.

  50. jonrmcleod says:

    There’s speculation that the Oilers will try to claim Curtis McElhinney, who is also on waivers.

  51. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Was at the game last night. Putrid 1st period, dominant 2nd and 3rd. Even my wife, who doesn’t watch hockey, noticed that they were dominating everything but the score.

    83 looks really good. Good skater, seems to have good vision/puck decision-making skills. Great/lucky signing.

    Had a great view of 29’s between the legs pass (unreal; so close to being finished by 97). Also had the pleasure of sitting in front of two francophone Oiler fans (they DO exist!) whose commentary was delightful. “Osti, Pouliot!” when he failed to clear the zone, and “Ben oui DRY-SAI-tal!” stand out.

    Great moves today. Something must be brewing on the goalering front, but I suppose it could just be that LB is called up tomorrow.

  52. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    – Indeed. Take a look at all the goalies that have played less than 10 games (and exclude the one that have played a game). Guess what: they are most likely going to suck.

    I took all goalies who played 4-10 (inclusive) games this year.

    There are 17 of them. Gus ranks 11th.

    Juuse Saros 7gp 0.955
    Anthony Stolarz 4gp 0.938
    Aaron Dell 6gp 0.936
    Philipp Grubauer 9gp 0.929
    Curtis McElhinney 7gp 0.924
    Jared Coreau 6gp 0.903
    Darcy Kuemper 8gp 0.902
    Jean-Francois Berube 4gp 0.901
    Anton Khudobin 8gp 0.885
    Jeff Zatkoff 10gp 0.884
    Jonas Gustavsson 7gp 0.878
    Jhonas Enroth 6gp 0.872
    Michal Neuvirth 10gp 0.867
    Zane McIntyre 4gp 0.861
    Eddie Lack 5gp 0.856
    Andrew Hammond 4gp 0.855
    Marek Mazanec 4gp 0.839

    Fun Fact: Saros is 5’10” and pretty much the opposite of the standard NHL goalie in terms of size.

  53. Tapdog says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    How about a 7th with Gustavsson? Keeps our 50 man limit the same.
    They can waive Gustavsson, contracts are the same.

  54. Jethro Tull says:

    frjohnk,

    Sleppy for Goalie!

    (Well, he couldn’t do any worse.)

  55. Jethro Tull says:

    Coffeys_Messy_eh: 83 looks really good. Good skater, seems to have good vision/puck decision-making skills.

    Too many fly-bys and he’s always first off the ice.

  56. linkfromhyrule says:

    frjohnk:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 49s50 seconds ago

    The #Oilers have assigned Jesse Puljujärvi to the @Condors, recalled Anton Slepyshev & placed Jonas Gustavsson on waivers.

    3 good moves in one day.

    These are moves that should have been done a month ago. Better late than never though.

  57. Eastern Oil says:

    zatch,

    Thank you for the quick recap, much appreciated. A few on Twitter mentioned that they did not see RNH good, but you were live and saw something else. The numbers for his line were not great but it sounds like he’s looked good over the past few games.

  58. theres oil in virginia says:

    Goaltenders at the NHL level generally have an established level of ability. When they don’t play a lot, and are struggling, or done, it makes for some very uneasy and sleepless nights. I have all kinds of time for Jonas Gustavsson today, he was in a tough spot and it did not go well. I am honestly less patient with the general manager, today.

    I’m very much in agreement with you here. At the start of the season, I was not too concerned about it (I’m generally a “let things play out before getting bothered by them” type), but as the season has rolled along, I’ve felt like they should have played Gustavsson more, or replaced him. If you have faith in him as your guy, then let him get some at bats, if not…cut him loose…and if he fails…cut him loose.

  59. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk: The issue is not putting the team in a position to succeed.

    Gus has a history of being at replacement or below replacement.

    0.902
    0.89
    0.902
    0.879
    0.907
    0.911
    0.908
    0.878

    Those are his save % stats per season since 2009.

    Just to get to league average save % since 2009, he would have allowed 59 less goals.

    Wow!

    – yeah : he’s a career average .900 goaler: not good to be sure

    – In the last 5 years he averages a start every 6 games.

    – I would like to know what % of games he plays that are 2nds of B2B’s, and what the average is for those goalers. Suspect he is in the range.

    – He’s not good (which is why he’s a back-up), but back-ups are more likely than not going to suck anyways, and little correlation y-o-y for back-ups results

    – Unless our next back-up get to play more games, you are relying on luck for next one to be better.

  60. theres oil in virginia says:

    frjohnk:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 49s50 seconds ago

    The #Oilers have assigned Jesse Puljujärvi to the @Condors, recalled Anton Slepyshev & placed Jonas Gustavsson on waivers.

    3 good moves in one day.

    Well, there you go.

  61. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: Too many fly-bys and he’s always first off the ice.

    Bad body language, doesn’t like to talk to the media…

  62. frjohnk says:

    Bohologo: Huzzah!So, uh, who’s the backup golman now?

    That goalie who cant stop a beach ball would be a step in the right direction

  63. who says:

    Ok someone needs to explain the whole JP saga to me. They kept him around for the 40 games and NOW are sending him down? WTF.? They have either put him in the press box or played him less than 10 minutes for the last month and a half. Tmac was saying the other day that it looks like JP has lost some confidence. Well DUH!
    The only thing I can think of is Chia gave him some assurance he would get 40 games before they signed him. Anyone else got any ideas?

  64. OilFanInYOW says:

    I have to admit, I was excited to have Lucic come to Edm. Wasn’t crazy about the term, but those were the realities we were dealing with if we wanted to contend in the sweepstakes. He just isn’t the player he was in Boston – and that’s understandable, he’s older, there’s tons of mileage on that body with much wear and tear, but boy, this could look like one bad contract. He’s doing ok, but I don’t think we expected “ok” in year 1. He looks to be struggling in keeping up with the pace of his linemates (not just Connor), and at times looks lost out there.

    He’s good on the PP and can level hard hits, as well as act as a deterrent. Perhaps this is another example of an overpay for a power forward. Really hope we can at least get another 2 or 3 solid yrs from him.

  65. theres oil in virginia says:

    kinger_OIL: Unless our next back-up get to play more games, you are relying on luck for next one to be better.

    I agree, but if they get a guy they have more confidence in, presumably they’ll play him more. Yes-no?

  66. hags9k says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes there will be a lot of goalie options for VGK. The most important thing is wins and playoffs. If LB did get claimed then you dodged a bullet on a Davidson or a Pouliot.

    Sounds now like we may be air lifting a new tender into the backup spot today.

  67. frjohnk says:

    who:
    Ok someone needs to explain the whole JP saga to me. They kept him around for the 40 games and NOW are sending him down? WTF.? They have either put him in the press box or played him less than 10 minutes for the last month and a half. Tmac was saying the other day that it looks like JP has lost some confidence. Well DUH!
    The only thing I can think of is Chia gave him some assurance he would get 40 games before they signed him. Anyone else got any ideas?

    Was the 4 or 5 extra minutes of playing time actually worth burning a year of RFA status?

    Geez. MacT sent Draisaitl down before Drai burnt up a year of RFA status.

  68. jfry says:

    i think that we have to look at the coach, as well as the gm. his use of gus has put gus in a position to fail.

    “It was a successful road trip, but if this team misses the playoffs by a point or two, this is one of the games I will remember as opportunity missed.”

    how can you make that claim in a woodguy “scheduled loss” game? and to think that brossoit is the answer? he’s had a really miserable last two months in the ahl after putting up really poor numbers last year in the show. Gus hasn’t helped himself, but i’m really surprised how little people are talking about him being set up to fail. and that people aren’t talking more about the reality that talbot might be viewed as a 70-75 game goalie.

    in boston, chia’s main goalies played a lot. thomas average 56 games a season (with two decent injuries in there) so was probably scheduled to play around 60-65 a year — he topped out at 66.

    rask started 58, 70, 64 games the last three years (and had some injuries in the 58 and 64 game years.

    the plan is to play talbot a lot. full stop. i’m guessing chia liked gus’ performance last year in the first half of the season where he helped float the b’s while rask was struggling – similar to nilsson.

    sure we could have a better backup, and he could also be played with more regularity, but if he’s going to be chucked in once a month in a scheduled loss, what do we really expect from anyone? if gus could have a .400 record, wouldn’t we consider that in the realm of acceptable (possibly miraculous)? seems beyond reasonable to me if he’s playing all those scheduled losses on the road especially. i just don’t see how bringing up brossoit to play scheduled losses helps anyone? it will just repeat this same gus narrative.

    His deployment is on the coach. i like tmac plenty, but i’m a little surprised how poor he’s been at dealing with veteran’s like pouliot, gus, etc. vs. the hendrick’s of the world.

  69. Bruce Wayne says:

    knighttown,

    Great post. It should be required reading for all hockey producers

    I’ve become numb to the terrible quality of play-by-play guys, but even with that numbness the horror of last night’s game shone (Saturday’s as well). There was no correlation to the words being said and what was happening on the ice. Worse, there didn’t seem to be any shame about it. They couldn’t have cared less that they were aimlessly going through the motions.

    It was humiliating. Everyone, and their families, involved in that production should be ashamed of themselves.

  70. oscarmike says:

    The great thing about this road trip is the emergence of the Mcd line and Benning as a 4RD.

    That line is so entertaining to watch.

    Drai sweet pass with his stick between his legs.

    Lucic and RNH have no chemistry and Eberle still can’t score. RNH and Ebs are soft players that don’t like cycling the puck.

    They should try cycling Lucic with Letestu and Kassain for a few shifts.

    Maroon-Mcd-Drai
    Drake-RNH-Ebs
    Lucic-Letestu- Kassian
    Hendricks-Lander-Slepy

  71. Woodguy says:

    Here’s a list of all 62 goalies who have played 1920+ min (all situations) from 14/15 – yesterday

    The list is sorted by GSAA/60

    I will start the goalies who might be available (although the twin waives sure makes it look like Peter is getting McElihenny and couldn’t convince Kekolainen to take a contract back)

    CAREY.PRICE 0.517
    ANTTI.RAANTA 0.495
    SCOTT.DARLING 0.377
    THOMAS.GREISS 0.345
    COREY.CRAWFORD 0.341
    CORY.SCHNEIDER 0.341
    JAROSLAV.HALAK 0.301
    CAM.TALBOT 0.291
    BRADEN.HOLTBY 0.286
    HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.285
    ANDREW.HAMMOND 0.279 **** don’t let this fool you, 1 good run followed by not good at all
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 0.229 **** I bet you can get WPG to take a contract back
    MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 0.205
    JOHN.GIBSON 0.184
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 0.176
    JACOB.MARKSTROM 0.153
    FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 0.135
    SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 0.131
    ROBERTO.LUONGO 0.131
    JONATHAN.QUICK 0.126
    MARTIN.JONES 0.120
    BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.116
    RYAN.MILLER 0.097
    CALVIN.PICKARD 0.094
    STEVE.MASON 0.092
    BEN.BISHOP 0.070
    PETER.BUDAJ 0.070
    PETR.MRAZEK 0.057
    JAKE.ALLEN 0.055
    SEMYON.VARLAMOV 0.040
    EDDIE.LACK 0.011 **** another goalie who’s trending down
    CRAIG.ANDERSON 0.010
    CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK 0.002
    TUUKKA.RASK -0.004
    MICHAL.NEUVIRTH -0.005 **** not having a good year at all
    CHAD.JOHNSON -0.007
    CURTIS.MCELHINNEY -0.019 **** this might be the best one available……
    JAMES.REIMER -0.038
    MIKE.SMITH -0.067
    JIMMY.HOWARD -0.069
    CAM.WARD -0.084
    ANDERS.NILSSON -0.097 *****who knew?
    MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON -0.120
    PEKKA.RINNE -0.125
    ANTTI.NIEMI -0.134
    AL.MONTOYA -0.137
    KARRI.RAMO -0.140 *** very available, in AHL right now
    ANTON.KHUDOBIN -0.151 ***available and trending down
    KEITH.KINKAID -0.155
    MIKE.CONDON -0.174
    ROBIN.LEHNER -0.185 (not available, but much much better this year after 2 tough years)
    ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY -0.201
    KARI.LEHTONEN -0.211
    LOUIS.DOMINGUE -0.232
    JONAS.HILLER -0.235
    JONATHAN.BERNIER -0.243
    CARTER.HUTTON -0.267
    JHONAS.ENROTH -0.275 ****available
    DARCY.KUEMPER -0.288
    JONAS.GUSTAVSSON -0.383 **** Hi Gus
    ANDERS.LINDBACK -0.498
    BEN.SCRIVENS -0.616 ****BEN!

  72. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I guess I “saw him good”. Seems like he’s doing well given he’s a rookie d-man in the best league in the world?

    EDIT: Maybe I missed some sarcasm? I am confuse.

  73. theres oil in virginia says:

    knighttown,

    Great post.

  74. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    frjohnk,

    Music! Music! Music!

    Couple thoughts:

    1) CmD-Drai-Maroon, as I said last night, they owned Karlsson and more broadly Ottawa’s soul and not in the way the angel on the right shoulder more often than not beats out the devil on the left, no no, this was more like Woland playing tricks with the crowd at the Moscow theatre in the Master and Margherita, pure pure bliss. When Drai made that between the legs pass to Maroon even the nice little old lady sitting next to me at the game said “holy shit how did he do that?” Also McDavid has his mojo back, Supernova to follow

    2) Eye test last night saw the Cagguilla-Eberle-Pouliot line good. Poo was moving his feet, crashing and winning puck battles and came within two inches of scoring early in the first there. Eberle did some fine work down low, great cycles, good covers when the d activated. Cagguilla was good but not great, man needs to hit the gym to pack on a few pounds, he gets pushed around a bit but is also very tenacious and likes to give it back just as often as he takes it. Some time with Larsson to learn how to use his stick as an equalizer would be a good idea.

    3) During the first intermission I was a tad peeved at Benning and LT took me to task for it. I was wrong, LT was right and my goodness did Benning put on a clinic to make me eat crow. No need to say anything else, this kid is found gold and i hope he can keep it up.

    4) No need to pile on Nuge-Looch-Kassian, actually I’ll take the opposite approach, the last few games they’ve started to show a decent bit of chemistry down low once in the offensive zone, good cycles, lots of heads up play and Looch’s ability to hold off attackers is apparent. Defensively its been a bit of a circus, no question but I’d like this line to stay together for the homestand. Aside from tomorrows game I think the matchups are favourable for this line to do some damage offensively and there are more sparks here.

    5) Gyrba needs a rest, draw in Davidson to play 3rd pair with Russell and I think you have a quick upgrade.

    6) Happy to see the defence activating a bit more in the last few games. Klefbom has the wheels and I agree with LT if he can get his confidence up a bit I can see him taking it to the house a bit more often. Also Larsson can pass and he can pass well, something is being coached to him on this front, because he can step up and make a pass. saw more than a few over the last couple of games.

    7) Along with the activation we’re seeing more shots from the point as well. I know the popular line is “no hammer” but its not the hammer part bugging me lately its the time it takes to get that shot away. Only Shea Weber has Shea Weber’s shot, no point being miffed at not having it. Our d hold on to the puck for too long IMO which leads to lanes clogging up. Klef has been effective lately at getting the puck and then getting rid of it quickly. Sekera is great but if he could shoot just a bit quicker I think he’d see more of his shots getting through.

    8) Net front presence was better last night but not great. This needs to come full-circle and when it does the one-line team mantra will start to die. Condon was coughing up rebounds left and right and for the most part there weren’t many Oilers around to make his life tough. This has been improving over the last few games and I hope it continues to do so.

    9) The PK needs to die by fire. The passivity of it is absolutely galling. I understand wanting to clog up passing lanes but holy crap there is zero puck carrier pressure out there and giving guys time to start whipping it around is asking for trouble. More specifically the Oilers PK gets more and more idle as the shift goes on. Unless they get a clear the guys stop moving their damn feet outside of their little 10ft lane. Down low they’ve abandoned all effort to clear the screen in front which is fine but you better be damn sure you either a) block those point shots and/or b) you block that passing option. b) failed last night and Hoffman found twine. I really really hope they add some pressure to this over the next two weeks, it would go a long way in helping the special teams.

  75. npanciroli says:

    Anyone know where I can get stats on Benning/Werenski?

    Looking for 5v5 pts/60 and 5v4 pts/60

    I remember Woodguy was comparing him to Werenski and wanted to check for myself because I can’t find his post.

  76. Woodguy says:

    LT asked an interesting question in the main post, so here is some data:

    Sekera—Benning were 17-11 in 13:04 together, so much puck moving ability here it is amazing. They went 13-4 with McDavid, I think this pairing might be the best duo to run with the 97 line. Thoughts?

    Here are the CF%, GF%, GF/60, GA.60 and TOI w/ 97 of the most common pairs lately (didn’t include Nurse or Davidson)

    I’ll start with the TOI to show the sample sizes. 77&62 is tiny with 4/6 and 2/83 not being much more.

    TOI w/ McDavid
    77 & 6 167min
    2 & 4 141min
    2 & 83 66min
    4 & 6 42min
    77 & 62 16min

    CF% w/ McDavid
    77 & 62 75.8%
    2 & 83 62.2%
    4 & 6 53.9%
    77 & 6 48.7%
    2 & 4 47.1%

    GF% w/ McDavid
    2 & 4 87.5% – PDO Gords giveth!
    2 & 83 71.4%
    77 & 6 50.0%
    77 & 62 50.0%
    4 & 6 0.0% – PDO Gords taketh away.

    Goals For/60 w/ McDavid
    2 & 83 4.51
    77 & 62 3.67
    2 & 4 2.97
    77 & 6 2.86
    4 & 6 0.00

    Goals Against/60 w/ McDavid
    2 & 4 0.42
    2 & 83 1.80
    77 & 6 2.86
    77 & 62 3.67
    4 & 6 4.30

    Yes, it looks like 2 & 83 is an excellent pair with McDavid. He scores the most and except for the 16min samples with 77/62, the get the best percentage of shots

  77. kinger_OIL says:

    theres oil in virginia: I agree, but if they get a guy they have more confidence in, presumably they’ll play him more.Yes-no?

    – As far as the numbers i have run, if you are playing less than 15 or 20 games a year, there is nothing predictive about your results from one year to another.

    – Our back-up last year is a perfect example: it was a miracle that we got a pick for Nillson. This year, on a worst team, he’s putting up the numbers we hoped from our back-up

    – If your back-up is playing less than 15 games, its just luck what they do year-year. Some play good, some play bad, some stay the same: no ryhme or reason

    – So sure the Monster sucked, but if he was the .908 guy from the Wings, 3 less goals in 6 starts, and we would be talking about how great he is as a back-up

    – I bet he’s average G for 2nd of B2B’s over last 5 years….

  78. leadfarmer says:

    Man that Gustavsson signing was a crappy bet. It’s sad whe the casual commenter can make a better scouting decision and there’s been a lot of casual commenters that hated this signing.

  79. Jethro Tull says:

    Coffeys_Messy_eh:
    Jethro Tull,

    I guess I “saw him good”.Seems like he’s doing well given he’s a rookie d-man in the best league in the world?

    EDIT: Maybe I missed some sarcasm?I am confuse.

    Look up the history of #83 in Oilers history there, good buddy!

  80. oscarmike says:

    I think the reason they kept JP around for so long is because he couldn’t speak English.

    So what if it burned a year off his ELC. Next time we see this kid he will be lights out.

    AHL is a rougher league. They like to scrap. Maybe this will be the last time anyone sees him smile.

    His Puck handling and decision making at high speed needs to improve.

    See you in playoff Puljujarvi

    Oilers just have to be better than Dal,Van,Wpg,Nsh

  81. Scungilli says:

    Now why would they do that with JP? The only reason I can think of is something to do with his agent. Leniency in the future for an earlier payday?

    Maybe CBJ and Oilers swap backups via waivers?

  82. Woodguy says:

    NPANCIROLI,

    stats.hockeyanalysis.com

    Pts/60 is under the “individual stats” tab

    Change from 5v5 to 5v4 under the “situation tab”

    Here they are:

    5v5
    Benning 0.79
    Werenski 0.66

    5v4
    Benning 6.01 (in a tiny 20 minute sample….McLellan needs to play him 5v4 more)
    Werenski 7.18

  83. Jethro Tull says:

    knighttown,

    My father-in-law doesn’t watch much hockey, but was very confused by “Hometown Hockey”. He thought it should include someone from either team playing, and then actually a piece on said team. When I mentioned it’s mostly in the east, he then understood. Here’s what he said:

    40yrs ago yesterday, I travelled from Whitby, ON to Edmonton, AB with ten bucks in my pocket. I had a wife and child I left there until I could get set up. I went to the local freight depot and talked to the truck drivers. One made a phone call, then I was travelling north to Peace River, where I stayed with the trucking company owner until I got a place. I then sent money for my wife a kid to join me. The moral of the story is that Eastern Canada thought they were the center of the universe then, and nothing has changed.

    A little paraphrased, for the sake of decency, but even he picked up on the “McDavid should be a leaf” vibe. Every time he goes back, he is a little taken aback about how ignorant people over that way are about anything west of the ‘Peg. Then he says he remembers where he is.

    People know about McDavid, because he’s leading the scoring race. They’re dimly aware of the Oilers, because he has to play for some team or other, and it ain’t the Leafs, so go figure.

  84. Lowetide says:

    Test.

  85. npanciroli says:

    Woodguy,

    Appreciate it thanks.

  86. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: LT asked an interesting question in the main post, so here is some data:

    The posters here have worked tirelessly towards crafting a tradition, and in one belligerent moment you throw it all away.

    🙂

  87. --hudson-- says:

    Lowetide:
    Test.

    ing

  88. Professor Q says:

    Odd decision by Oilers with Puljüjarvi. Totally called it though.

  89. Eastern Oil says:

    oscarmike,

    I get what your saying, but did his English change that much in the past 5 days from game 39 to game 41? That’s what makes no sense to me.

  90. Chachi says:

    Coffeys_Messy_eh:
    Jethro Tull,

    I guess I “saw him good”.Seems like he’s doing well given he’s a rookie d-man in the best league in the world?

    EDIT: Maybe I missed some sarcasm?I am confuse.

    Every time I see the number 83 I think of Hemsky.

  91. Pink Socks says:

    Happy with Puljüjarvi going to the minors. At this point I think it’s fairly clear there was a handshake agreement to keep him through 40. If this is the case I have no issue with it, keep the young man and his agent happy. Now hopefully he tears it up in the AHL.

  92. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk: Was the 4 or 5 extra minutes of playing time actually worth burning a year of RFA status?

    Geez.MacT sent Draisaitl down before Drai burnt up a year of RFA status.

    – The handling of pool-party is entirely attributable to only the following 3 factors:
    1) a promise to pay him a NHL salary to come over (this is by far the biggest reason)
    2) a promise to burn-off a year of UFA (almost as big as #1)
    3) best way to acclimatize him was in NHL

    – #1 and #2 happen a lot when negociating with players, both college, and overseas, because this is the only time those players have the hammer before being “owned”.

  93. Pink Socks says:

    Chachi: Every time I see the number 83 I think of Hemsky.

    Surprised Bob Cole didn’t think the same.

  94. hodgkins says:

    Scungilli:
    Now why would they do that with JP? The only reason I can think of is something to do with his agent. Leniency in the future for an earlier payday?

    My guess is that it was the only way to get JP over here this year instead of playing in Europe. It would be a stunning coincidence that it just happened to be after the game threshold.

  95. Bruce Wayne says:

    oscarmike:
    I think the reason they kept JP around for so long is because he couldn’t speak English.

    So what if it burned a year off his ELC. Next time we see this kid he will be lights out.

    AHL is a rougher league. They like to scrap.Maybe this will be the last time anyone sees him smile.

    His Puck handling and decision making at high speed needs to improve.

    See you in playoff Puljujarvi

    Oilers just have to be better than Dal,Van,Wpg,Nsh

    I may be mistaken, but I believe we lost the year of ELC when Puljujarvi played his 10th game. What has happened now is that the Oilers have lost a year of RFA status, which means that Puljujarvi will be an unrestricted free agent one year sooner than if had played the year in Finland or been sent down to the AHL a couple of weeks ago.

    That’s a big deal. What is one year worth? A lot, millions of dollars on the cap, any way you slice it, and a great deal of flexibility.

    What did the Oilers buy with that money?

  96. Woodguy says:

    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec 29m
    29 minutes ago

    Expect Laurent Brossoit to be called by up by #Oilers tmw or Wednesday, once Gustavsson clears.
    McElhinney claim unlikely, I am told.

  97. Pink Socks says:

    Bruce Wayne: I may be mistaken, but I believe we lost the year of ELC when Puljujarvi played his 10th game.What has happened now is that the Oilers have lost a year of RFA status, which means that Puljujarvi will be an unrestricted free agent one year sooner than if had played the year in Finland or been sent down to the AHL a couple of weeks ago.

    That’s a big deal.What is one year worth?A lot, millions of dollars on the cap, any way you slice it, and a great deal of flexibility.

    What did the Oilers buy with that money?

    Correct, the ELC is burned at game 10. I agree that it is unfortunate losing the year of control, but as to “What did the Oilers buy with that money?”, I think it’s a happy player and agent, he got his NHL paycheck for half a season, and I do believe in loyalty to players and agent. They may have bought a future discount, they definitely bought a happy player, and overall, I’m not sure it really is millions of dollars on the cap. It will be a bridge deal regardless, and if he turns into the player we all hope, overall I’m not sure it is that big of a deal.

  98. Chachi says:

    Pink Socks: Surprised Bob Cole didn’t think the same.

    Poor Bob is starting to remind me of the last days of Don Wittman doing play by play. One of the last games I heard him do he confused a player for Moe Mantha who had retired about a dozen years before the game I was watching.

  99. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    – As far as the numbers i have run, if you are playing less than 15 or 20 games a year, there is nothing predictive about your results from one year to another.

    That’s not true.

    Less predictive? Sure.

    Nothing predictive? That’s incorrect.

  100. Pink Socks says:

    Chachi: Poor Bob is starting to remind me of the last days of Don Wittman doing play by play. One of the last games I heard him do he confused a player for Moe Mantha who had retired about a dozen years before the game I was watching.

    I thought the exact thing. And I have always loved Cole, but man that was rough. Best Bob Cole of all time, and I still will play it from time to time, was Game 7 CuJo save and Marchant scoring the OT winner. Chills.

  101. leadfarmer says:

    Still would have been happier if the left Pulju overseas this year and hired him an Englishtutor

  102. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: The posters here have worked tirelessly towards crafting a tradition, and in one belligerent moment you throw it all away.

    I’m a Monster.

    Well, maybe I’m not that bad….

    🙂

  103. Chachi says:

    Pink Socks: I thought the exact thing.And I have always loved Cole, but man that was rough.Best Bob Cole of all time, and I still will play it from time to time, was Game 7 CuJo save and Marchant scoring the OT winner.Chills.

    If I close my eyes I can picture Grant Ledyard flailing hopelessly at Marchant as he flies by him.

  104. Pink Socks says:

    Woodguy,

    I keep meaning to ask when I involve myself in the comments section rather than creeping them, are there any advanced stats being generated for the KHL? I have been fairly regular watching Kazan to keep up with Paigin’s development, and as he has started to see 7th D-man duties since his early season injury, I’m wondering what fancies are saying about his deployment and actual performance.

  105. Pink Socks says:

    Chachi: If I close my eyes I can picture Grant Ledyard flailing hopelessly at Marchant as he flies by him.

    And shortly thereafter the Ron Low CuJo “what a fucking save” embrace.

  106. Chachi says:

    Pink Socks:
    Woodguy,

    I keep meaning to ask when I involve myself in the comments section rather than creeping them, are there any advanced stats being generated for the KHL?I have been fairly regular watching Kazan to keep up with Paigin’s development, and as he has started to see 7th D-man duties since his early season injury, I’m wondering what fancies are saying about his deployment and actual performance.

    In Russia advanced stats generate YOU! Apologies to Yakov Smirnoff.

  107. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    – well everything has some r-value. But when I ran it, goalies less than 20 games y-o-y, sv% r-squared not something I hang hat on.

    – Fill your boots though if you want to assign a confidence interval to any goalie playing less than 20 games to repeat.

    – Sure we could do better than the Monster, but that guy has to play more full-stop.

    – Assign much more value to games played than sv% on y-o-y predictions for back-ups

  108. jimmers2 says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy,

    Many thanks for taking the time to compile and post two interesting tables of timely data. I hope they generate some useful discussion.

    And thanks to LT for yet another super post!

  109. Scungilli says:

    If losing is a likely given, I’d play someone who might benefit in the future they might be a part of rather than a guy who has a fork in him.

  110. Spoils says:

    ok ok ok – alright

    i thought the caggiula ebs line looked great. controlled the puck, dangled and danced, couldn’t cash. I’d keep them together for a while.

    but… with RNH line struggling, maybe a shuffle is in order.

    if you trust the minds behind the last two golds and the wch win – best of best – you can’t have enough centers.

  111. doritogrande says:

    Knighttown: Re: play-by-play.

    I think the thing that bothered me the most about last night, moreso that anything quasi-hockey-related was that I believe that Bob Cole believes in his own mind that the Ottawa hockey club is actually called the “Sens”. Given how many times he referred to them as such last night, I think it’s time to put him out to pasture.

    And let’s not forget the random one-word comment of “McDavid” about mid-way through the first period, when Mark Letestu took the draw. Did he have to reach a certain quota and was betting on the under?

    I’m not so sure that Jim “Great Save Luongo!” Hughson is the answer either for HNIC, but aside from Gord Miller, he’s the best of the best. Bob Cole should take a page out of Vin Scully’s book and go out on his terms, rather than us eventually remarking “what happened to Bob”?

  112. russ99 says:

    IMO, much of Lucic’s 5×5 numbers fall off is systemic.

    We usually have two forwards down low, but on a shot, they’re all about puck retrieval.

    Lucic has shown on the powerplay that he can be a force as a net front presence, but we just don’t play that way 5×5. Other than players like Draisaitl trailing on a play, we really don’t get a lot of rebound chances overall.

    Milan usually gets the puck in traffic outside the crease 5×5.

    Todd would rather keep possession than keep pressure in the crease, and he’s all about more frequent shots from all over the o-zone rather than lesser but higher quality shots.

    The one extra man 5×4 reduces the need for commitment of retrieval and lets Lucic do what he does.

  113. Truth says:

    About 32 games too late for JP, but now better than never I suppose.

    Is there a minimum NHL days on the roster for goaltenders exposed to the expansion draft?

    NHL.com’s release on the expansion draft rules don’t mention anything beyond each team having to expose one goalie, and the the goalie exposed needs to be; signed beyond this season, 3 year pro or greater, free of a no-movement clause, and not injured long term. I sure hope they don’t bungle this up bad enough that Talbot is forced to be exposed.

    I realize they can protect one goalie as well. I just hope the “must expose” doesn’t trump the “protection eligible” rules if Talbot is the only one meeting the criteria to expose.

  114. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL: – The handling of pool-party is entirely attributable to onlythe following 3 factors:
    1)a promise to pay him a NHL salary to come over (this is by far the biggest reason)
    2)a promise to burn-off a year of UFA (almost as big as #1)
    3) best way to acclimatize him was in NHL

    – #1 and #2 happen a lot when negociating with players, both college, and overseas, because this is the only time those players have the hammer before being “owned”.

    I agree and too many people don’t consider what is said in private.

    JP could have earned good money in the SM-liiga and no doubt this was talked about.

  115. Woodguy says:

    Pink Socks:
    Woodguy,

    I keep meaning to ask when I involve myself in the comments section rather than creeping them, are there any advanced stats being generated for the KHL?I have been fairly regular watching Kazan to keep up with Paigin’s development, and as he has started to see 7th D-man duties since his early season injury, I’m wondering what fancies are saying about his deployment and actual performance.

    Not to my knowledge.

  116. oscarmike says:

    Who cares. It’s not my money

  117. JDï™ says:

    frjohnk: 3 good moves in one day.

    Yup, but it’s the day that puzzles me so much.

  118. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec29m
    29 minutes ago

    Expect Laurent Brossoit to be called by up by #Oilers tmw or Wednesday, once Gustavsson clears.
    McElhinney claim unlikely, I am told.

    This is the reason why I think they signed the Monstrous. Said it before the season.

    Anyone aking the Oiler backup position would be facing serious time in the minors, depending on how the keepers played there. Tough to get one of the better backups on those situations, because there are better landing spots available.

    So sign Monstrous for super-cheap, maybe he plays well, if not, go to Broissoit once he’s had a half season more.

  119. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Woodguy,

    – well everything has some r-value.But when I ran it, goalies less than 20 games y-o-y, sv% r-squared not something I hang hat on.

    – Fill your boots though if you want to assign a confidence interval to any goalie playing less than 20 games to repeat.

    – Sure we could do better than the Monster, but that guy has to play more full-stop.

    – Assign much more value to games played than sv% on y-o-y predictions for back-ups

    If you are running all situations SV%, it will show much more variance as 4v5 SV% has a ton of variance for most goalies.

    To get around that just use 5v5 SV% when using small samples.

    Usually matches the bigger all situations results when the sample gets big enough to use all situations

  120. Woodguy says:

    jimmers2:
    Woodguy,

    Woodguy,

    Many thanks for taking the time to compile and post two interesting tables of timely data.I hope they generate some useful discussion.

    And thanks to LT for yet another super post!

    You’re welcome

  121. Bruce Wayne says:

    kinger_OIL: – The handling of pool-party is entirely attributable to onlythe following 3 factors:
    1)a promise to pay him a NHL salary to come over (this is by far the biggest reason)
    2)a promise to burn-off a year of UFA (almost as big as #1)
    3) best way to acclimatize him was in NHL

    – #1 and #2 happen a lot when negociating with players, both college, and overseas, because this is the only time those players have the hammer before being “owned”.

    This must be what is happening. However, that it is intentional doesn’t make it smart.

    Just leave him in Finland for the year, and bring him over next year when he is older. There is plenty of evidence it is good for development and even if it is a wash developmentally you get more and better years of service from the player.

  122. spoiler says:

    theres oil in virginia: The posters here have worked tirelessly towards crafting a tradition, and in one belligerent moment you throw it all away.

    Ha-hahhh!

  123. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: This is the reason why I think they signed the Monstrous.Said it before the season.

    Anyone aking the Oiler backup position would be facing serious time in the minors, depending on how the keepers played there.Tough to get one of the better backups on those situations, because there are better landing spots available.

    So sign Monstrous for super-cheap, maybe he plays well, if not, go to Broissoit once he’s had a half season more.

    That may be, but I disagree with that line of thinking.

    I would sign an actual NHL back up. If injuries happen then Broissoit will get his chance.

    Broissoit is a pretty average goalie prospect and they shouldn’t be clearing any decks for him.

    For the record I had Montoya, Zatkoff and Johnson as targets.

    All of them signed after Peter signed Gustavsson.

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/748938149326315520

  124. Scungilli says:

    russ99:
    IMO, much of Lucic’s 5×5 numbers fall off is systemic.

    We usually have two forwards down low, but on a shot, they’re all about puck retrieval.

    Lucic has show shown on the powerplay that he can be a force as a net front presence, but we justdon’tplay that way 5×5. Other than players like Draisaitl trailing on a play, we really don’t get a lot of rebound chances,

    Todd would rather keep possession than pressure in the crease, and he’s all about frequent shots from all over the o-zone rather than lesser high quality shots.

    The one extra man 5×4 reduces the need commitment of retrieval and lets Lucic do what he does.

    This is a great point. A lot of players are struggling. This is reminding me of the Pens last year. So much is baffling about this season and the coach and GM. McLellan had team NA killing it and the Oilers look discombobulated. DiscomBobCole-ated. Poor guy.

  125. Woodguy says:

    russ99,

    IMO, much of Lucic’s 5×5 numbers fall off is systemic.

    Why does the same system not affect Maroon playing the same position?

  126. Johnny says:

    Does anybody else (besides me) think that Connor McDavids comments after the Jersey game ( we didn’t turn it into a “me show”, by having guys try to do it by themselves) were quite insightful as to how the team possibly felt about Mr. Hall?

    i haven’t seen anybody comment on these remarks, and for all of the questions about how Hall could be traded, look no further than the captain laying it down.

    I didn’t watch the game, but also very interesting that the Oilers seemed to have extra jump and were also quite physical with their former teammate.

    Also strange to hear Jersey doesn’t play as much of a system these days.

  127. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Would NYI retain 50% on Halak? Or just keep him as their goalie exposed in the expansion draft?

  128. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    Really wanted Johnson, now he’s salvaging CGY’s season.

    Gustavsson/Reinhart deals looked so awful the second they went down to the fanbase, concerns me that management can’t see it at the time.

  129. Woodguy says:

    Scungilli: This is a great point. A lot of players are struggling. This is reminding me of the Pens last year. So much is baffling about this season and the coach and GM. McLellan had team NA killing it and the Oilers look discombobulated. DiscomBobCole-ated. Poor guy.

    The big difference is that PIT was “struggling” (relative to where they could be) in possession and goal scoring was close to possession.

    PIT fired Johnston Dec 12

    PIT Oct 1./15 – Dec 12/15

    CF% 48.39
    GF% 50.62

    PIT Dec 13/15 – Apr 15/16

    CF% 54.61
    GF% 57.14

    Increases
    CF% +6.22%
    GF% + 6.52%

    So Johnson increase both possession and goal share (funny how that happens……)

    Edmonton isn’t struggling team wide in possession or goal share. (compared to previous years)

    CF% 51.95
    GF% 52.40

    So I don’t think you can blame the “system” for Lucic’s poor numbers, especially when Maroon is excelling in the exact same spot.

    Would a different coach increase both CF% and GF%? Maybe. I hate McLellan’s neutral zone play, but familiarity breeds contempt the numbers above are pretty good (CF% is 7th and GF% is 10th)

  130. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Would NYI retain 50% on Halak? Or just keep him as their goalie exposed in the expansion draft?

    I would say that depends on the return.

  131. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Broissoit is a pretty average goalie prospect and they shouldn’t be clearing any decks for him.
    For the record I had Montoya, Zatkoff and Johnson as targets.
    All of them signed after Peter signed Gustavsson.

    I’m not sure the Oiler brass feel the same way about Broissoit.

    Johnson was holding out for playing time and a legit shot, which the Oil weren’t really willing to give.

    Montoya wanted a stable living situation and a multi-year contract, which the Oilers weren’t willing to give.

    Zatkoff I am unsure of, but LAK looked to be a better landing spot than the Oil pre-season.

    I would’ve signed Johnson, if he would’ve been willing..

  132. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy,

    Really wanted Johnson, now he’s salvaging CGY’s season.

    Gustavsson/Reinhart deals looked so awful the second they went down to the fanbase, concerns me that management can’t see it at the time.

    That’s the frustrating part.

    People who follow hockey as a hobby seem to be able to see things coming that people immersed in NHL can’t.

    I don’t understand it.

  133. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Haha! Goddammit. I knew I was missing something.

  134. JAG-041 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    knighttown,

    My father-in-law doesn’t watch much hockey, but was very confused by “Hometown Hockey”.He thought it should include someone from either team playing, and then actually a piece on said team.When I mentioned it’s mostly in the east, he then understood.Here’s what he said:

    40yrs ago yesterday, I travelled from Whitby, ON to Edmonton, AB with ten bucks in my pocket.I had a wife and child I left there until I could get set up.I went to the local freight depot and talked to the truck drivers.One made a phone call, then I was travelling north to Peace River, where I stayed with the trucking company owner until I got a place.I then sent money for my wife a kid to join me.The moral of the story is that Eastern Canada thought they were the center of the universe then, and nothing has changed.

    A little paraphrased, for the sake of decency, but even he picked up on the “McDavid should be a leaf” vibe.Every time he goes back, he is a little taken aback about how ignorant people over that way are about anything west of the ‘Peg.Then he says he remembers where he is.

    People know about McDavid, because he’s leading the scoring race.They’re dimly aware of the Oilers, because he has to play for some team or other, and it ain’t the Leafs, so go figure.

    Man, I live out here… Got in an argument the other day with a guy because he said he’d, “take Matthews over McDavid any day of the week” because “no one can turn a game around like Matthews”
    I eventually said that I couldn’t tell him he was wrong, but that I’m sure no legitimate hockey mind would agree with him, and reminded him that McDavid is actually only a few months older than Matthews anyway.
    The media, in my mind, creates this sentiment. I’m happy to have grown up out west to be able to see that… Of course, you can’t say that to anyone out here because they’ll just call you a “typical Albertan”… Unfortunately, I feel similarly maligned (stealing your word LT) when I return to AB for being an “Ontarian” now… You just can’t win sometimes

  135. spoiler says:

    LT said…

    The job of goaltender is wildly unfair. In my town, the kid who played goalie was both loved and maligned, loved because when he stopped pucks the town team won—and maligned when he didn’t stop anything. The only thing worse than being the goalie? The time one of the forwards ripped a shot off the back of the goalie (Kenny Meier was the goalie) during warmup and the stopper landed in a heap, unable to play. Now who is going to play net? My goodness that shooter was unpopular, I think he went to school in Lashburn after that incident. (I kid, but barely).

    You know this is so true, and I don’t think anyone’s ever put it into words before, which is surprising. Well done!!!

  136. spoiler says:

    I’d like to remind everyone that the media no longer considers it to be Eastern Canada, but Central Canada. Kind of like how socialism is now the “centre” politically (actually it’s now the left, right and centre, but that’s a story for another day).

    Get with the program, Westerners!

  137. oscarmike says:

    Bruce Wayne: I may be mistaken, but I believe we lost the year of ELC when Puljujarvi played his 10th game.What has happened now is that the Oilers have lost a year of RFA status, which means that Puljujarvi will be an unrestricted free agent one year sooner than if had played the year in Finland or been sent down to the AHL a couple of weeks ago.

    That’s a big deal.What is one year worth?A lot, millions of dollars on the cap, any way you slice it, and a great deal of flexibility.

    What did the Oilers buy with that money?

    Bruce Wayne: I may be mistaken, but I believe we lost the year of ELC when Puljujarvi played his 10th game.What has happened now is that the Oilers have lost a year of RFA status, which means that Puljujarvi will be an unrestricted free agent one year sooner than if had played the year in Finland or been sent down to the AHL a couple of weeks ago.

    That’s a big deal.What is one year worth?A lot, millions of dollars on the cap, any way you slice it, and a great deal of flexibility.

    What did the Oilers buy with that money?

    Bruce Wayne,

    So what you’re saying is money matters, lives don’t?
    Puljujarvi is a person and not a mutual fund you buy at a bank.
    Why does that matter to you. This is hockey. It doesn’t have to make sense.
    Yeah I just didn’t fall off the turnip truck I know what a RFA is.

    You make it sound like he’s getting paid for doing nothing.

    28 games and had 8 points.

    So what the Oilers are going to sign Puljujarvi a year earlier. That can also save the Oilers millions of dollars.

    What if, what if, what if

    What if Puljujarvi was sent to the AHL and his UFA status was left unchanged. What if the last year of his RFA status he has a breakthrough year. Now Oilers will be paying millions more signing him compared to his RFA status expiring a year sooner.

  138. russ99 says:

    Woodguy:
    russ99,

    IMO, much of Lucic’s 5×5 numbers fall off is systemic.

    Why does the same system not affect Maroon playing the same position?

    Maroon is shooting from the same areas Lucic is, he’s not in the crease screening the goalie, cleaning up redirects and rebounds

    Maroon is more a Pouliot-style player, and good on the rush, and not bad on the cycle either and he’s having a good run of hitting the net.

    Lucic is a beast on the cycle and in front of the net, seems odd how we have a potential game changer in that style of play yet we try to use him off the rush.

  139. fifthcartel says:

    Stauffer says recalling Brossoit is the logical move, but then went into his quiet Stuaffer whisper voice and said “unless something else happens….. we’ll see”.

  140. frjohnk says:

    I looked at all the goalies who averaged 8 to 27 starts per year in the NHL since 2009. For the most part, these are the guys that have played backup. There are a couple of outliers. This list eliminates a bunch of the “replacement level goaltenders”, but again a few outliers creep in.

    Some of them played the whole 8 years, some have just played a couple. There were 47 goalies who fit into this category.

    Save Percentage
    The average save % for these goalies was .908. Hammond with 42 starts had the best save % with a .925. The worst was Dipietro with a .885. Gus was 42nd worst out of 47 with a .901.

    Quality Starts ( which is basically if a goalie outperforms the league average save percentage, he is awarded a quality start )
    This group had a 50% success rate for a quality start. Gus had a quality start % of 40%. Again bottom of the pile.

    Really Bad Starts ( which is shitting the bed)
    This group had a 16.9% success rate of shitting the bed.
    Gus had a 15.9% success rate of shitting the bed.

    Hey!! He didnt shit the bed as bad as the average of this group. But then again this is a shitty group.

    All in all. The Gus bet has not worked out.

  141. kinger_OIL says:

    Bruce Wayne: This must be what is happening. However, that it is intentional doesn’t make it smart.

    Just leave him in Finland for the year, and bring him over next year when he is older.There is plenty of evidence it is good for development and even if it is a wash developmentally you get more and better years of service from the player.

    – You have evidence that 18 year old not fully-matured finnish wingers drafted in the first round that play a rounded game do better the next year in the finnish league than developing in the NHL and north-america? Or that at best it is a wash?

    – Glad you’ve got it figured out….

  142. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk,

    – I’d really like to see a stat of sv% of all goalers on 2nd of B2B’s, and/or 3rd in 4rth night.

    – Then see what % of those games are “sacrificed” to the back-up, and what their SV% is

    – We are just guessing that on a relative basis Monster is bad as a back-up by taking his save percentage, but as the back-up he get gets mostly the sh%itty starts. I bet he’s average vs his peers.

    – I don’t think he is a good goaler, but I bet he’s not as bad given his role….

    – The next back-up, he could be Nilsson last year, or this year, or Halak, etc: it’s mostly luck, unless you give then a chance to succeed.

  143. Mustard Tiger says:

    Just a dumb theory, but maybe part of the Puljujarvi thing is maybe Pakarinen is getting healthier, and they want him down there skating with Puljujarvi?

  144. stush18 says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    I think for a player like JP, he’s going to get paid regardless. Curious decision to wait, but I’m glad he’s been moved.

    Also most gms don’t care about 5-7 years done the road. They are either gone or have had enough success to cover any mistakes anyways

  145. Bruce Wayne says:

    kinger_OIL: – You have evidence that 18 year old not fully-matured finnish wingers drafted in the first round that play a rounded game do better the next year in the finnish league than developing in the NHL and north-america?Orthat at best it is a wash?

    – Glad you’ve got it figured out….

    We went over this in the preseason. The evidence is strongly in favour of leaving Puljujarvi in
    Europe. I was being charitable to the Oilers by calling it a wash.

  146. Bruce Wayne says:

    stush18:
    Bruce Wayne,

    Also most gms don’t care about 5-7 years done the road. They are either gone or have had enough success to cover any mistakes anyways

    You identified a big part of the problem right there.

    I disagree that he is going to be paid regardless. When, and how much, is still in play. And what if the Oilers want to move him down the road in a Ryan O’Reilly situation. One less year of control means a smaller return.

  147. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    russ99,

    IMO, much of Lucic’s 5×5 numbers fall off is systemic.

    Why does the same system not affect Maroon playing the same position?

    Oh c’mon, lol.

    For starters, they’re different players. Lucic is a passer, Maroon a shooter.

    I have no idea why Lucic has been unable to bank shots in the net off other players at the same rate as Maroon, but I’m guessing it’s a little early to be making comparisons, not to mention the RWer is different.

    That said, I’m loving the start this line has had, and who doesn’t like to see Maroon’s ear-to-ear grin?

  148. Woodguy says:

    russ99,

    Lucic is a beast on the cycle and in front of the net, seems odd how we have a potential game changer in that style of play yet we try to use him off the rush.

    The Oilers are a much more cycling team than previous years.

    I think the biggest problem is that Eberle wasn’t good on cycle and the puck turned over lots when he had it on the boards.

    Oilers Goal For/60

    Lucic + McDavid + Eberle = 1.69 – That’s about 3rd line production (212 minutes played)

    Lucic + McDavid + anyone but Eberle = 3.65 – That’s high end 1st line production (197 minutes played)

    Also,

    This supports your point a bit:

    McDavid with neither Lucic nor Eberle = 4.61 GF/60 (143 minutes)

    That’s ludicrous production.

    I think Lucic spent most of his shifts with McDavid just trying to keep up

  149. oscarmike says:

    Draisaitle suffered no harm starting in the NHL his rookie year.
    He saw first hand what it takes to play in the NHL.
    It wasn’t hard on his development.
    Now Edmonton is so lucky to have Draisaitle.

    Right now Draisaitle is the player you put with
    Other players to increase their production.

    If Nuge or Drake line can’t produce. Dria goes back
    To 2nd line center.

    And how many people were crying because Oilers burnt
    a year on Draisaitle’s ElC.

    Pay the man!! Lock him up one year sooner.

    Just like it’s not wrecking Puljujarvi career.
    Now Jesse sees exactly what it takes.

  150. stush18 says:

    Woodguy: That’s the frustrating part.

    People who follow hockey as a hobby seem to be able to see things coming that people immersed in NHL can’t.

    I don’t understand it.

    I really think we discount the relationships between agents, gms, players, etc.

    Does Montoya hate nuge? Was demers allergic to snow?

    I think personality and relationships make up for a lot of these confusing moments, and we never hear about it until after, aka commodore and Babcock

  151. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Oh c’mon, lol.

    For starters, they’re different players.Lucic is a passer, Maroon a shooter.

    I have no idea why Lucic has been unable to bank shots in the net off other players at the same rate as Maroon, but I’m guessing it’s a little early to be making comparisons, not to mention the RWer is different.

    Maroon is doing more than banking them in, he’s got 16 of em.

    I agree they are different players.

    As to “different RW”:

    Lucic + McDavid + Eberle = 1.69 GF/60 (212 min)

    Maroon + McDavid + Eberle = 3.91 GF/60 (92 min)

    Maroon + McDavid + anyone but Eberle = 4.75 GF/60 (101 minutes)

    I guess that blows my “Eberle was the problem” theory with 27-93-14

    Maybe 27 and 14 just shouldn’t play together?

  152. stush18 says:

    Bruce Wayne: You identified a big part of the problem right there.

    I disagree that he is going to be paid regardless.When, and how much, is still in play. And what if the Oilers want to move him down the road in a Ryan O’Reilly situation.One less year of control means a smaller return.

    I think most gms are told they have time, take there time, told they don’t have time, and make desperate moves.

    So In three years he will either have a long term contract, that is low money and eats his RFA years, or a bridge that is low money that keeps him RFA. And if he’s signed for a bridge deal then he struggled his entire ELC and won’t get paid big anyways.

    Lots of scenarios. I agree is strange to not preserve the year tho.

  153. frjohnk says:

    kinger_OIL:
    frjohnk,

    – I’d really like to see a stat of sv% of all goalers on 2nd of B2B’s, and/or 3rd in 4rth night.

    – Then see what % of those games are “sacrificed” to the back-up, and what their SV%is

    – We are just guessing that on a relative basis Monster is bad as a back-up by taking his save percentage, but as the back-up he get gets mostly the sh%itty starts.I bet he’s average vs his peers.

    – I don’t think he is a good goaler, but I bet he’s not as bad given his role….

    – The next back-up, he could be Nilsson last year, or this year, or Halak, etc: it’s mostly luck, unless you give then a chance to succeed.

    I dont have or dont know how to get B2B stats, but the fact that Gus is at .901 compared to the average of .908 of goalies who played on average from 2 to 4 games per month means he was below his peers. Also 40% quality starts when his peers average 50% is Scrivenslike in his last year as an Oiler. Thats not good.

    If by chance, he is like you say ” average to his peers on a B2B”, then to get a .901 when his peers average .908 overall means that he really shits the bed on the other games that are not B2B to get that lower number.

    Most of the other goalies in my sample played sporadically, just like Gus, so they were for the most part put into the same position to succeed/fail. And looking at the quality of competition, no where no top teams he played against in his losses. Maybe Philly. But he let in 6 goals that game.

    If we look at the goalie classes we have
    Elite
    Very good starter
    Average starter
    Good backup
    Average backup
    Bad backup
    Below replacement goalie

    Gus numbers throughout his career are better than “below replacement goalie” but not as good as an “average backup”

    He is a bad backup.

  154. Woodguy says:

    stush18: I really think we discount the relationships between agents, gms, players, etc.

    Does Montoya hate nuge? Was demers allergic to snow?

    I think personality and relationships make up for a lot of these confusing moments, and we never hear about it until after, aka commodore and Babcock

    Demers wanted to sign with Edmonton.

    I’ll sign that in blood if I have to. My source is pretty freaking good.

    Also,

    From what I hear that can happen, but only among players that are sought after and have a choice.

    Back up goalies usually can’t shit for a week before July 1 as there are *always* more back up goalies than jobs.

    That’s why they mostly sign for $800K-$1.25K on 1 year deals.

    Also,

    A *very good* back up like Johnson gets an offer from EDM and one from CGY.

    Looks that EDM just gave Talbot a big 4 year deal, and looks to CGY to see he’s backing up Elliotte who while received Vezina votes, is on the last year of his deal and would pick CGY due to the ability to actually win a #1 job.

    That’s reasonable.

    The non-hockey stuff isn’t reasonable for back up goalies.

  155. Jethro Tull says:

    kinger_OIL: – You have evidence that 18 year old not fully-matured finnish wingers drafted in the first round that play a rounded game do better the next year in the finnish league than developing in the NHL and north-america?Orthat at best it is a wash?

    – Glad you’ve got it figured out….

    Oh, oh, I know this!

    Teemu Selanne.

    For a bonus point, can you tell me the official reason he was returned to Finland after being drafted to the NHL?

    *Clue: The answer is in the question above!*

  156. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Maroon is doing more than banking them in, he’s got 16 of em.

    Of course, but he’s had a fair bit of goal luck recently. The point is sample size.

  157. stush18 says:

    Woodguy,

    Do you have access to goalies GSAA over the course of a few years? Or is there a way to adjust the data down to the past 2-3 yrs? I ask because i’m assuming the drop in goals over the past ten year has coincided with a rise in save %age, which could skew results.

    Asking because I’m not fully onboard with this metric. Whenever I see backups mixed in with starters, I start to wonder. Anything with price leading is a good place to start, but pavelec being that high makes me doubt. Doesn’t pass the eye test imo.

  158. JDï™ says:

    Quite the prescient title today LT – the ‘wait’ to bring back Slepy and to fix the BU goaler, is over.

  159. OF17 says:

    One thing that I’ve noticed with the Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl line is that it frees McDavid up to become puck support in the offensive zone rather than fighting battles himself. Both Maroon and Draisaitl are good enough along the wall that they usually either win the puck outright or make it a wash, at which point McDavid can swoop in and take possession. Speed and smarts mean he’s usually the 3rd guy to reach the battles. This creates chaos, as the guy covering McDavid needs to reevaluate what to do, and McDavid gets decently clean possession with space to make a move. By eye, I’ve seen more sustained pressure in the O zone since that line was put together, and I think that’s a big reason. That and how proficient Maroon and Draisaitl are at advancing breakouts under pressure.

    LT, since you’ve seen more of Lucic than pretty much all of us here, what types of linemates did he work best with? Were they centers that liked to get into the battles themselves, was it with another winger that could win battles for the C like 19-97-29 are doing? It’s a shame we don’t have two Draisaitls, since 27-93-29 sounds to me like it could work with Nuge playing the 97 role in the offensive zone described above.

  160. stush18 says:

    Woodguy,

    I dunno.

    You think Montoya, Hutton, raanta, enroth or khudobin were really that worried? I think we could have made bets they were all going to get deals.

    These “backup” goalies usually stick around till there early to mid thirties.

    I agree their are a lot of goalies availible on the market every year, but most of these teams need replacements too.

    I think chia could have done better than gus tho. I’m not sure how much chia and Tmac are on the same page.

  161. blainer says:

    Great news today for sure.

    Don’t need to say much more about Gus but I was getting frustrated that all we needed was an injury to Talbot and we’re screwed.

    Not sure LB is the answer either but he has to be better than Gus IMO.

    The move for Slepy to the farm for a few weeks probably helped him a bit. I’m a big beliver in this player. Really would like to see him in the top six for a bit. His shot and size are big league.

    JP… Finally off to the A.

    Would love to see a few sorties at the center position for JP. He has all the tools for both the wing and the center position.

    Kris Russell is surprising at times with my eye. Man he really hangs on to the puck and waits for the right play. I am beginning to like what I am seeing from him lately.. except for that bonehead clearing attempt last night.

    Man I am very optimistic for the second half the way this team has been playing.

    Time for Bob Cole to retire. It seems like he might have a bit of dementia going on there. It’s getting too painful to listen to him now. He’s had a good run but it’s time.

  162. Professor Q says:

    Furthermore, why not send down Caggiula and bring Khaira up as well? Do a full rotation of rookies (able to be rotated)?

  163. N64 says:

    Truth: Is there a minimum NHL days on the roster for goaltenders exposed to the expansion draft

    Not for G. (The 40/1 or 70/2 NHL played rule is only for skaters).

    LB meets the exposure requirement.

    JG does not because UFA.

  164. Professor Q says:

    N64: Not for G. 40/1 or 70/2 NHL played
    rule is only for skaters.

    LB meets exposure requirement.

    JG does not because UFA.

    If I remember correctly, if Vegas signs a UFA in their early slot period, it counts as their pick from that team.

    Although I could be misremembering and it might be if they accept a trade prior to the draft…Or both.

  165. Woodguy says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy,

    Do you have access to goalies GSAA over the course of a few years? Or is there a way to adjust the data down to the past 2-3 yrs? I ask because i’m assuming the drop in goals over the past ten year has coincided with a rise in save %age, which could skew results.

    Asking because I’m not fully onboard with this metric. Whenever I see backups mixed in with starters, I start to wonder. Anything with price leading is a good place to start, but pavelec being that high makes me doubt. Doesn’t pass the eye test imo.

    Shot volume doesn’t matter though.

    The increased scoring in the year right after the lock out was almost exclusively driven by more penalties and more 5v4 scoring.

    Saves per type of shot wouldn’t be affected by this at all.

    There are also about 36,000 shots per year in the NHL, so the sample is 360,000 shots.

    I can’t link right to Manny’s article but goto corsica.hockey –> click the goalie icon –> click glossary on right hand side –> type gsaa into search function.

    Also,

    Some back ups are really good, and Pavelec hasn’t been bad every year.

    Here’s Pavelec GSAA/60 over a few years:

    Player Season GSAA/60
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20102011 0.406
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20112012 0.214
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20122013 -0.066
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20132014 -0.148
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20142015 0.427
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20152016 0.171

    I looked at 14/15-16/17 so his sample was dominated by his 14/15 (not coincidentally the last time WPG made the playoffs)

    Here’s Pavelec’s High Danger SV% over those periods (5v5)

    Player Season HDSv%
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20102011 81.01
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20112012 80.15
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20122013 78.42
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20132014 78.66
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20142015 82.97
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 20152016 80.90

    You can see his GSAA was driven by years of good HDSV%, which makes sense as a key take away from Manny’s piece on GSAA is this:

    Additionally, it appears the skill-driven component of Sv% is almost entirely contained in a goalie’s ability to stop shots of the High-Danger variety.

    Also,

    As for some backups ranking high, it doesn’t surprise me.

    Best 60 goalies in the world (give or take) play in the NHL.

    Some starters stay starters due to contracts (see Fleury for many years, although his last 3 have been very good) and goalies have always been very tough to evaluate.

    Many, many people who vote for NHL awards still insist that “Wins” is the most important goalie stats.

    Its not an exact science.

    I also found Talbot’s great numbers when he was a back up and was told it was “all NYR Dcorps”

    The most I dug the less I believed that.

    We are seeing Talbot is at the very least an average NHL starter and probably a little better than that, but it was his back up numbers that showed this first.

  166. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Of course, but he’s had a fair bit of goal luck recently.The point is sample size.

    I get that.

    I’ve included samples sizes with all the data.

  167. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: We are seeing Talbot is at the very least an average NHL starter and probably a little better than that

    The latter at least.

    In the 40 top goalies in goalie starts this year.

    -Talbot is 14th in save % with a .920. Average for this group is .916.
    -Talbot is 16th in Quality Start % with 57%.

    All we wanted the last 3 Christmas’s was league average goaltending.

    We got that, and more. ( a great Chia pickup and then a great signing)

    Woot!!!!

  168. squeezboks says:

    Late to the party but had a good view of the game last night.

    1) It’s been beat to death, but that rim around breakout play has got to go.

    2) Our forwards need to come down lower on the breakouts when our D are behind the net. There was a sequence where the Senators forechecker in front of the net took away the stretch pass and our D just held the puck for what seemed like a minute.

    3) The Monster is terrible.

    4) Eberle needs to go back to his old stick, everything is off target these days.

  169. --hudson-- says:

    Might be late on this one, but given that the Oilers haven’t recalled LB as yet, it seems plan A for them is to claim McElhinney.

    My reasoning is if plan A was for LB, we would have heard about it already, similar to how CBJ announced the recall of Anton Forsberg the same time McElhinney was waived. Of course it could also be the Oilers looking to make a trade or just having a different PR protocol.

    The Oilers would get great value if they hired Woodguy to just be a goalie scout/consultant. Outstanding work!!

  170. JDï™ says:

    –hudson–: My reasoning is if plan A was for LB…

    Gus has to clear waivers first, I think.

    Stauffer suggested it’s LB, but also added ‘unless something else transpires…’

    The problem with claiming McElheinousey, aside from that nobody can spell his name, is that Pete’s at 48 contracts already.

  171. N64 says:

    Professor Q: If I remember correctly, if Vegas signs a UFA in their early slot period, it counts as their pick from that team.

    Although I could be misremembering and it might be if they accept a trade prior to the draft…Or both.

    Chia needed to sign Gus on 7/1 before he signed anywhere else. Too much to ask for Vegas to sign him before 7/1? 😉

  172. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: I get that.

    I’ve included samples sizes with all the data.

    Yes, you’re welcome for the prompt. 😉

  173. New Improved Darkness says:

    I’m kind of wondering where, precisely, to slot “the weight” into the Donner Party hierarchy of needs.

    * The Load
    * The Millstone
    * Just Eat Gilligan

  174. Scungilli says:

    Woodguy re Demers

    Thank Gord they didn’t sign Demers! They couldn’t sign Russell then and the shot blocking would sukk! And Demers wears pink suits.

    Demers Larsson Benning, close call.

    Also then they couldn’t trade another forward for a RHD

  175. GMB3 says:

    Well does anyone have a link for somewhere I can watch Bakersfield games online?? I’m excited to see him on the ice for more than 8 minutes a game somewhere.

  176. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Yes, you’re welcome for the prompt.

    ?

    TOI were in the original posts

    I changed nothing

  177. Woodguy says:

    Scungilli:
    Woodguy re Demers

    Thank Gord they didn’t sign Demers! They couldn’t sign Russell then and the shot blocking would sukk! And Demers wears pink suits.

    Demers Larsson Benning, close call.

    Also then they couldn’t trade another forward for a RHD

    I don’t understand this at all.

    Are you rolling me or agreeing with me?

  178. Professor Q says:

    Lots of trades today in the OHL.

    London has acquired forward Dante Salituro from the Ottawa 67’s as well as defenseman Mitchell Vande Sompel from the Oshawa Generals. They’ve also acquired forward Mitchell Stephens from Saginaw Spirit (and gave up A LOT for him; all of them, really).

    Damn. I was hoping for Niemeläinen…

    Maybe this is around the time where we finally see where Oilers prospects end up?

  179. Lowetide says:

    OF17:
    One thing that I’ve noticed with the Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl line is that it frees McDavid up to become puck support in the offensive zone rather than fighting battles himself. Both Maroon and Draisaitl are good enough along the wall that they usually either win the puck outright or make it a wash, at which point McDavid can swoop in and take possession. Speed and smarts mean he’s usually the 3rd guy to reach the battles. This creates chaos, as the guy covering McDavid needs to reevaluate what to do, and McDavid gets decently clean possession with space to make a move. By eye, I’ve seen more sustained pressure in the O zone since that line was put together, and I think that’s a big reason. That and how proficient Maroon and Draisaitl are at advancing breakouts under pressure.

    LT, since you’ve seen more of Lucic than pretty much all of us here, what types of linemates did he work best with? Were they centers that liked to get into the battles themselves, was it with another winger that could win battles for the C like 19-97-29 are doing? It’s a shame we don’t have two Draisaitls, since 27-93-29 sounds to me like it could work with Nuge playing the 97 role in the offensive zone described above.

    Always a really good two-way center with offensive ability, and a winger who could shoot and had some jam. Krejci was his center mostly, and the shooters on the line were RWs like Nathan Horton and Jarome Iginla.

  180. N64 says:

    Woodguy: ?

    TOI were in the original posts

    I changed nothing

    The smiley suggests he was playing ya.

  181. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Always a really good two-way center with offensive ability, and a winger who could shoot and had some jam. Krejci was his center mostly, and the shooters on the line were RWs like Nathan Horton and Jarome Iginla.

    Possibly why he might do better with Nuge?

  182. rickithebear says:

    Frojohnk:

    Sather told NYR reporters that a trade for Talbot was arranged at the 14-15 deadline.
    It centered around the Hemsky asset and an asset to be acquired in a petry trade.
    Lundquists injury issues prevented the trade.
    MacT completed the petry trade acquiring the other asset needed.

    Setting in motion the trade to be completed at the draft.

    Mact was replaced but retained in the org.
    Sather sought better asset count for Talbot at the draft.
    Only similar offers showed up.
    Sather stated that since MacT was still with the org.
    MacT made the asset commitment.
    Sather offered PC the deal before he moved from the Gm position.

    On HF board the NYR fans were pissed.

    I will never give PC credit for MCdavid
    MacT won the lottery!
    person would have to be the biggest Cl……. F….. not to select him.

    and

    I sure as heck am not crediting PC for Talbot!

    When NYR Media and Sather have presented this narrative.

    No Petry trade!
    No Talbot!
    No Brainer!

    In a media availability PC credited MacT and Bucky for the Caggulia and Benning acquisition!

    KLowe recently stated that the inability to retain great offensive players (EIG) drove the belief that good young forwards was the way to go under Katz.

    He stated in hind sight that the old perspective held by PC and Tmac was the way to Go.

    1. Build from the Net out
    2. down the middle:
    3. Speed on Every line
    4. Add size

    1.Talbot (MacT)

    Russell (PC) – Larsson (PC)
    Sekera (PC) – Benning ( MacT)
    Davidson (Tambo) – Klefbom ( Tambo)
    Nurse ( MacT)

    2. Mcdavid ( MacT)
    Draisatl (MacT)
    RNH (Tambo)
    Letestu (PC)

    RW Kassian (PC) 6’3″ 217
    top 20 PK Fwd
    LW Maroon (PC) 6’3″ 230
    top 75 fwd 22 EVG last 2 seasons; w/ Marleau; Backlund; Hartnell; Backes; kopitar; Ryan
    LW Lucic (PC) 6’4′ 233
    Top 60 Fwd 24 EVG

  183. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy,

    I think your estimate of 36,000 shots per season is off by a factor of 2. There are 1230 games per year featuring about 60 shots each, or if you prefer, 2460 team-games times ~30. Either way, something approaching 75,000 shots.

  184. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q: Possibly why he might do better with Nuge?

    Yes, I think so. Need Nathan Horton, though. 🙂

  185. stevezie says:

    The idea that the oil would be screwing either JP’s life or his development by sending him to Finland is baffling and baseless.

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