ONE MORE MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB

I always pick favorites, and that is the truth. When the late 1960s Leafs started bringing in young defensemen by the dozen, I chose Jim Dorey as my favorite. Habs? Serge Savard, and Larry Robinson too (even though I hated the Habs, and liked Guy Lapointe quite a bit too. It was a confusing time). My favorite young blue for the Oilers is Oscar the Dreamy, with his complete skill set and his skating ability. Man, this guy could be very good. Pull up a chair, we are just getting started.

SHARKS ATE OUR LUNCH, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 2-3-0, goal differential -4
  • Oilers after 43, 2015-16: 17-23-3, goal differential -25
  • Oilers after 43, 2016-17: 21-15-7, goal differential +6

The key item to look at is January—it is beginning to look like November, and that is February’s job. Edmonton badly needs to post a strong January, or the rope is snapped and we are looking at a seller in our town one more time. Oilers played well in the second half of the game, but needed a couple of extra stops to have a chance. If this is a trend—slow starts and a couple of wobble goals is now two games old—this team is about to slide.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • On the road to: Columbus, Boston, New Jersey, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-1) (Actual: 2-2-0)
  • At home to: San Jose, New Jersey, Calgary, Arizona, Florida, Nashville (Expected Result: 3-1-2) (So Far: 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected Result: 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected Result: 0-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-3, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current Results: 2-3-0, four points in five games

This is not good enough, ladies. Now, for the good news. In the next several days, Edmonton faces five teams and the club needs eight points. That is four wins, or three wins and two Bettman points, something. Last night was an unsuccessful sortie, but the really important work is straight ahead. Edmonton needs five more wins this month. Giddyup.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera—Benning went 14-11 together, Sekera also spent time with Russell (6-1), Larsson and Klefbom (2-0). Not quite sure why the went away from Sekera—Benning—who were effective—but things were going in a good direction from Sekera. 12-3 against the Tierney line.
  • Russell—Larsson went 13-10 together, I thought, as I always do, the pairing lacks an effective way to get the puck up the ice consistently. That said, Russell was 11-4 with McDavid on the ice and 6-5 with the Nuge. 7-6 against the Thornton line. 9-3 against Marleau, 1-8 against Lebanc.
  • Klefbom—Gryba went 7-11 together, McLellan moved Oscar to Larsson (7-4) and Benning as the game rolled along. I think Oscar can play capably with all the RHD, but Gryba is my least favorite match for him. Oscar has range, needs to be in the top 4D. Oscar was 9-3 against Pavelski.
  • Cam Talbot had the yips, although not all GA were on him. Caught 23 of 28, .821.
  • HockeyStats.ca, NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl did not score, but hammered the Vlasic pairing (22-10). Did not dominate the Thornton line (8-4) as much as last time, but only a hot goalie and luck kept this trio from scoring. Ladies and men, a giant walks among us—and he turns 20 in two days.
  • Pouliot—Caggiula—Kassian scored a goal, the young center getting his third of the season. On a night when I thought three of the LWs played quite well, for me Pouliot ranks behind only Maroon among them. Kassian doesn’t always have his feet going as he did last night, I know not why.
  • Lucic—Nuge—Eberle had a good night, especially by their own recent standards. When Eberle breaks out, he may carry this team for 10 days. Perhaps we see that begin on Thursday. Pouliot moved up to this line for a time, thought he looked good there, as always.
  • Hendricks—Lestestu—Lander didn’t play well, but I also feel Mr. McLellan might have played them a little more. Shortening the bench may not be as effective as we (I) think it is.
  • I hope we see Slepyshev on a line with Letestu and Lander on Thursday. That is what I would do.

JESSE ON THE ROAD

Jesse Puljujarvi picked up an assist in his first AHL game, we have a line in the sand of 1/1 AHLGP-Points and so we are on track. He played with Jujhar Khaira and Joey Laleggia on what looks like a 2line but I cannot be sure. One thing I wanted to remind you of: JP had some good things going in the NHL this season, age 18.

JESSE PULJUJARVI 2016-17, EDMONTON

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.45 (No. 6 among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.66 (one point in 22 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 53.2
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 1.1 (No. 5 among regular forwards)
  • Dangerous Fenwick (all opponents) for 5×5%: 49.7
  • Most Common Linemates: Leon Draisaitl, Patrick Maroon, Connor McDavid, Benoit Pouliot
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 41/2.4
  • Boxcars: 28GP, 1-7-8
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, WoodMoney and hockey-reference.

If JP had a normal (10 percent) shooting percentage, his boxcars would read 4-7-11 and we might be singing a different tune. I think his shot is good enough to score in the NHL, we should look for a strong 20-game run in the AHL, and then a return to the regular NHL lineup. This is what I would do.

2017 NHL DRAFT

I have to tell you this is shaping up to be a strange draft in terms of consensus. I pay attention to all kinds of lists—not as a guide, but as a curio—and it is rare to reach January and have this range even inside a top 10.

I have a great deal of respect for Craig Button, always pay close attention to his new lists. Red Line for me is the industry standard. As I mentioned, my list is mostly math so doesn’t really associate in terms of compilation with these two scouting lists. That said, RLR and Button don’t agree on six of the top 10, and the lists part after No. 1 overall. Hold on, this might be one of those drafts where really good prospects fall to No. 20 or later.

ANTON SLEPYSHEV

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.45 (No. 7 among forwards with >100 minutes)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 50.3
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -1.0
  • Dangerous Fenwick (all opponents) for 5×5%: 47.0
  • Most Common Linemates: Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian, Tyler Pitlick, Drake Caggiula
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 22/9.1
  • Boxcars: 15GP, 2-2-4
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, WoodMoney and hockey-reference.

Once again, sincere thanks to Wood Guy and G Money for access to this, I am sure it drives them nuts to see me plod along in the slow adult learner lane. But, this is how I learn, and I am thrilled to bring you the information in my 1960s style. 🙂

Slepyshev is building a decent resume here, and since he has size (6.02, 187) and speed, this is a player who has a chance to hang around for some time. We shouldn’t project too much, even a Marc Habscheid (345 NHL games) is a distant bell, but this is a recall the young man did not receive in January one year ago. At the trade deadline, at least one winger could be gone. There is an opportunity here. I am cheering for him.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It is a cold Wednesday but better weather is on the way (actually here, just taking time to warm up). At 10 this morning, we hit the air on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Wednesday’s with Bruce haven’t changed much this season, despite the Oilers better overall record. My word the hockey Gods have it in for McCurdy. We will try to make him smile at 10:20.
  • Corey Graham, TSN1260 Oil Kings PBP. The trade deadline is over, and the Oil Kings were extremely active. We will check in with Corey.
  • Brad Gagnon, Bleacher Report. A look at the big NFL weekend coming up, and some coaching rumors.

A few more irons in the fire, we will update you at 10. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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143 Responses to "ONE MORE MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB"

  1. Bruce McCurdy says:

    EIGHT straight losses on Tuesdays now.

    EIGHT in a row.

    EIGHT.

  2. p3rsonman says:

    When Eberle breaks out, he may carry this team for 10 days.

    I think at this point, it’s fair to fix this sentence to say “IF” Eberle breaks out. The man should ask for a refund from his shooting coach, and maybe sue – I’m not sure.

  3. Clarkenstein says:

    In hindsight the day after there was no reason to expect an Oil win. ANOTHER third game in four nights after a continent wide flight home after Sunday’s game. Pro bettors know that the first game back after a four game or more road trip against a top contender always favors the road team who were fairly rested. I remember Slats talking about that first game back. Get home to the wife and kids and the last thing on your mind is another game. Bills to pay, errands to run and the young single players who haven’t seen their ladies for a week or more.. well… ahem… need I say more?
    Take Talbot for example. Probably didn’t get a decent sleep with new twins in the house. Most of us have been there. It’s tough. That first period is one we’ve seen dozens of times over the past ten or fifteen years. And it continues. I think the Oil rack up more airmiles than any team. They’ve been on the road a lot this year. Fatigue is real. BUT now is the time to make up for some of these issues over the next five games. No excuses.

  4. russ99 says:

    Our home record (9-8-2) is a bit worrisome. We need to start playing our best hockey at home against the West instead of on the road in the East.

  5. Dino says:

    Slow starts and lack of urgency early is killing us. They showed us all what they’re capable of in the 3rd period, why couldn’t they play that way from puck drop?

    This team has a lot more to give and I hope they choose this homestand to finally give it.

    PS: PLEASE PUT BENNING ON A PP UNIT ASAP

  6. Aitch says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    EIGHT straight losses on Tuesdays now.

    EIGHT in a row.

    EIGHT.

    That’s Enough

  7. Aitch says:

    Dino,

    Dino:
    Slow starts and lack of urgency early is killing us. They showed us all what they’re capable of in the 3rd period, why couldn’t they play that way from puck drop?

    Because no team in the history of sports dominates every minute of every game*. You realize that the other team is out there trying too, right?

    * (Edit) Even the Washington Generals outscore the Globetrotters for portions of games.

  8. dustrock says:

    Larsson seems much improved in the last 5 games or so to me. He has the calmness again.

    No offence to Gryba and Hendricks, but I’d be a happy man if we never see them in the lineup again.

    Davidson, Davidson, wherefore art thou, Davidson?

  9. Aitch says:

    russ99,

    I think we play our best hockey on the road in the West. Have you seen the record of the Oilers out East? It’s only 4-5-2 on the Road in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, they’re 8-2-3 on the road in the West.

  10. JDï™ says:

    Aitch: trying too

    That’s similar to what I was going to say. As much as the Oilers looked like toddlers who haven’t had their nap-time, the Sharks looked like… uh… sharks?

  11. SoCaloil says:

    Any update on Nurse, Davey and backup G?

  12. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    dustrock,

    This right here!

    A Couple Thoughts

    1) Larsson. I disagree with LT in regards to puck mobility with this player. I’m of the belief (along with another poster here) that Larsson is being coached to play a very specific way and I believe that includes a deference on zone exits. The last few games (with less back pressure) he’s stepped up and started firing passes, and there have been a few great ones to wingers way way up the ice. Now at this point its still an exception, not a rule, but I’m in agreement with Dustrock, I think Larsson got tuckered out from the brutal travel before the holidays and has needed time to adjust to TMac’s system. I think he starts to take more of a leadership role on the ice as the season wears on.

    2) Klefbom. Happy to see that he’s almost back in form again. The time away from the toughs has done him well by the eye test and he seems to have some confidence back.

    3) Sekera – Benning. Mr. Benning had a rookie moment last night on the Couture goal and his face looked like someone killed his puppy on the bench afterwards. Both of these are good things. Mistakes happen, but if you feel like shit about them and learn form it that is all I can ask for. Excellent rookie season so far and if he’s comfortable with the TOI I’d give him a rotation on the PP when Davidson is back in the lineup. If I had one improvement area for Sekera its to shoot quicker. He’s like Eberle in a way, in trying to pick his spots. Works in overtime, but leads to clogged lanes in 5v5, get that shot away Reg! It doesn’t need to travel 100mph it just needs to get through.

    4)Russel and Partner – Work in progress. Starting to see Russell activate from the backend more, he’s quick and can get up the ice and seems able to control the puck when he moves so I’m ok with it.

    5) Overall I think i’m starting to see more offensive interest from the defence. This will be a big factor going forward. If the Oilers can find away to make their attack work through 5 men instead of 3 that will have ramifications for other teams and their coverage issues.

    Onto last nights game

    6) I wrote most of my pieces last night and won’t rehash, but something that was very exciting was the amount of back pressure being created from the 2nd period onward. McD-Drai-Maroon created multiple turnovers due to hard forechecking and hard back checking. I saw Eberle really well in that regard as well as some other supporting folk. This is important, the Oilers need to establish multiple ways to score goals, turnover quick strike goals are there for the taking (see the Puliot turnover’s in multiple games for examples), this could really help bolster 5v5 scoring if they can keep it up.

    7) McD-Drai-Maroon… What can one say? This line will eat souls for dinner if a hot goalie doesn’t get in the way.

    8) Penally kill looked better last night. More pressure, more movement however a bit of a tire fire on the 1st kill. Sharks are a long established unit so I expect them to be able to sling the puck rather well and it showed on that first PP. The teams the Oilers have upcoming are not nearly as well established and I would like to see the PK units keep up the pressure and polish it before the Pacific slog begins in March.

    9) Overall I’m not too too worried. Some shaky goaltending in the last few games but I really really like the team’s play in Ottawa and even though they got buried in the first 28 minutes last night the push back is something that has been missing from the Oilers during the Decade of Darkness. Lots of positives, some definite yip moments but the last week has shown more positives than negatives IMO.

    10) Columbus has lost 3 of its last 4 and just ditched their very stable backup for nothing… Curious decisions being made in Ohio right now.

  13. kinger_OIL says:

    SoCaloil,

    – Are you in SolCal?

    – between Sek/Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Davidson/Benning: that’s 6 “top-4” D.

    Could we go into next year with:
    Klef-Larsson
    Sek-Benning
    Nurse-Davidson

    – I can’t imagine they are all here next year: need a different mix because you can’t have 50% of your corps with so little experience. Too much “upside” not enough “bona-fide”

    – that’s why I see Russell being signed: and you have:
    Klef-Larsson
    Sek-Russell (or a better than Russell)
    Nurse-Benning

    – We are almost a top-end D. Trade Davidson/Nurse in a package and/or get a “better” Russell.

  14. Woodguy says:

    Baseball style standings for WC and Pacific.

    Cut off for 8th place (last playoff spot) will be set to 0 games.

    MIN +13
    CHI +12
    SJS +8
    ANA +6
    STL +3
    EDM +3
    LAK 0
    CGY 0
    ——————-
    NSH -1
    VAN -2
    WPG -3
    DAL -3
    ARI -13
    COL -15

    SJS and ANA are pulling away from the pack in the Pacific and with two losses in a row, EDM is not a part of their conversation.

    That said, I think yesterday’s loss will result in some positive changes to the roster.

    I can’t see McLellan keeping Hendricks and Gryba in the line up. Neither of them can keep up in a game with speed like we saw last night.

    Davidson and Sleppy should draw in (if Davidson is healthy) and McLellan is making decisions based on winning hockey games.

    Also,

    2 games in a row where a slow start doomed the game.

    Maybe they get that they need to come out hard now?

    Also,

    The next 5 games are very, very, very winnable.

    I think it was mentioned on the Drew Remenda Shark Appreciation Show last night that the Oiler’s have 3 games coming up vs opponents who played the night before in a different city.

    The other two opponents are lesser opponents.

    Thurs vs NJD (Oilers should win)
    Sat vs CGY (who play NJD in Calgary the Friday night)
    Mon vs ARI (Oilers should win)
    Wed vs FLA (who play CGY in Calgary Tuesday night)
    Fri vs NSH (who play CGY in Calgary Thursday night)

    Remember last year when we whined about how many 2nd games CGY got when EDM got the first game of B2B vs team’s travelling through Alberta?

    Yeah, its opposite now and why some consider EDM’s schedule one of the easiest in the NHL this year.

    Recap:

    Oilers should be able to win the next 5 games if:

    1) McLellan ices his best roster
    2) Oilers get it through their head to play hard from the drop of the puck (Maybe Leader Lucic can lead from the front on this one?)
    3) Oiler’s don’t play down to their opponent vs NJD and ARI
    4) Oilers take advantage of 3 teams who played the night before and had to travel

    They should get 8/10 points in the next 5 game.

    If they get 6/10 it should be considered a bad stretch.

  15. Truth says:

    I admit I was wrong about Klefbom’s previous foot/ankle injury. I thought it would be much more of a hindrance. He’ll be really good eventually.

    Nice to see Pouliot back in form for the last two games. Hope he keeps it up, he’s a really good player when he wants to be. Was at fault for a bad goal against last night, but those whiffs happen to everyone.

  16. IAGTTAYM says:

    Klefbom now T-2 among d-men with six 5v5 goals. 5th in iFF/60 (500 minutes minimum). If he can sort out his d-zone play, we’ll have one hell of a player for a long time (on a good contract).

  17. JDï™ says:

    SoCaloil:
    Any update on Nurse, Davey and backup G?

    If they release any news, it will be after LT’s show 😉

    The AHL transactions page has been several hours behind the Oilers’ twit account, so I would keep an eye on that for updates on the BUG: https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers

  18. Kepler62 says:

    Slepyshev honestly looks like an NHL player whenever he gets in a game – hope management sees it too (the recall would say they do). I think he’s been handled really well so far. As a more mature player at the start of last season he was given a quick look at the NHL then sent to the AHL for the rest of the season. This season he’s gotten more NHL action while also more time to hone his skills and boost his confidence in the AHL.

    Development done right in my opinion.

  19. Chachi says:

    Woodguy: If they get 6/10 it should be considered a bad stretch.

    Agreed. A playoff team wins at least 4 of those 5 games.

  20. Chachi says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!: 4)Russel and Partner – Work in progress. Starting to see Russell activate from the backend more, he’s quick and can get up the ice and seems able to control the puck when he moves so I’m ok with it.

    On one shift, I believe it was in the second period, Russell got the puck in the Oilers’ zone, scooted up the left wing with great speed and lobbed a soft wrister right into the un-screened goalie’s bread basket. For a tiny moment it was like Taylor Hall was back playing with the Oilers.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Clarkenstein:
    In hindsight the day after there was no reason to expect an Oil win.ANOTHER third game in four nights after a continent wide flight home after Sunday’s game.Pro bettors know that the first game back after a four game or more road trip against a top contender always favors the road team who were fairly rested.I remember Slats talking about that first game back. Get home to the wife and kids and the last thing on your mind is another game. Bills to pay, errands to run and the young single players who haven’t seen their ladies for a week or more.. well… ahem… need I say more?
    Take Talbot for example.Probably didn’t get a decent sleep with new twins in the house.Most of us have been there.It’s tough.That first period is one we’ve seen dozens of times over the past ten or fifteen years. And it continues.I think the Oil rack up more airmiles than any team. They’ve been on the road a lot this year.Fatigue is real. BUT now is the time to make up for some of these issues over the next five games.No excuses.

    Lots of truth in this post

  22. Woodguy says:

    Aitch: That’s Enough

    Well done.

  23. Jaxon says:

    Note on Slepyshev and Puljujarvi re: 5×5 Primary Pts/60.

    Puljujarvi is 4th on the Oilers with 1.45
    Slepyshev is 6th on the Oilers with 1.09

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    Here’s an interesting thought experiment to test yourself as an armchair GM. In other words, think you’re smarter than Chiarelli, then here’s a nice conundrum for you : )

    If RNH and Eberle continue to produce below expectations, what should Chiarelli do with those players/contracts as the trade deadline approaches and heading into the offseason?

    Much like the Hall return, I’m becoming increasingly convinced that how Pete maximizes those two assets, in conjunction with how these moves impact the salary structure for the ‘core reboot’ will determine how many Cups this group wins (if any).

    The previous regime almost ALWAYS waited until their players bottomed out before they traded them for pennies on the dollar. The recent exceptions (Smid, Perron) are so rare that it defies belief on how truly bad this organization has been at asset management.

    And now we have two large contract players trending in the wrong direction again. For RNH, he’s midway through his second underwhelming season in a row. Eberle’s slump may just be a short-term trend but his inability to make hay alongside McDavid puts an added spotlight on his cap hit imo.

    If I’m Chia, I’m looking for youngish players in other orgs that have displayed top end offensive skills but are possibly having an off year and may benefit from a change of venue. Players like Lindholm in CAR, Landeskog in COL, Theodore in ANA, Ceci in OTT.

    If RNH can’t produce goals as a Top 6 W, I deal him. $6mil is too much of a luxury for a 3C with FO% deficiencies. If Eberle, doesn’t produce Gs at an elite rate over the back half of this season, I deal him. Too much cap hit for streaky scorer with defensive and boardwork issues. The roster gaps I’d like to fill in return are 1RW and RH PP QB

    Eberle, I would trade at the deadline to a team in contention with a surplus of defensive depth but lacking in top end scoring that’s hoping to make a playoff push (e.g. Panthers, Kings, Canes, Flames, etc.). Add a sweetener if need be to land the PP QB. RNH I would deal at the draft to move up the board into a top lottery pick. Money saved from both would be used to land a premium RW in free agency to slot alongside McDavid.

  25. spoiler says:

    I put some of that loss on Chia.

    He waives his backup goalie, essentially telling the whole world that he lacks confidence in his abilities after the backup lays a stinker in the previous game, and then…

    Leaves him in the line-up. For the SCF Finalists and Division Leaders.

    I’m sure Talbot was grateful for the extra pressure. Sure looked like it.

  26. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy,

    I wouldn’t count on it being Hendricks that sits. Lander played a total of one second on the PK when there’s an argument to be made that he’s our best forward on the PK (him or Letestu I’d say, look ar the way he kills lanes), if he’s in the lineup that’s where he could make his main contribution, if the coach uses Pouliot and Kassian over him when the PK has gone down the toilet the last few weeks it’s pretty clear Lander isn’t held in high regard by the coach and seen as a warm body and not really a useful player. He also took 1 draw on a night where Oilers struggled on the dot. I think Lander burned so many bridges with his struggles last season that McLellan has a hard time trusting him at all. I hope I’m wrong as I think Lander can be a solid cog as a 4th liner and PKer. And a far more efficient player than Hendricks at this moment in time.

  27. dustrock says:

    Woodguy: Lots of truth in this post

    I agree. Don’t think the players would ever admit to it, but it makes sense to me.

    I do like the push-back the team seems to have this season, honestly, there have only been a few games that are absolute stinkers, and every team has those.

    I like the approach that LT is taking, looking at the games in blocks. It’s the only way to maintain sanity this season. Quite frankly, it’s been so long, I’m not used to checking the standings in January and for the first time in 10 years, I haven’t even looked at the draft boards for 2017.

  28. Dennis King says:

    I would like to believe some lineup changes are made but the Oilers have fallen in love with Heavy Hockey and whereas I once laughed at the Oilers for trying to play run-and-gun in a non-capped world, now I’m wondering why they won’t take a look back to that style

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    If Leon is proving himself as a line ‘driver’ does anyone else wonder why TMac is playing him alongside McDavid while RNH continues to slump?

    Why not give it a look for a couple games to see if Nuge as Connor’s wing could be lightning in a bottle?

    I get that Maroon is lighting it up as Connor’s LW atm, but Patrick would still have Leon as a running mate on the 2L in this scenario.

    in terms of pairs, McDavid/Nuge & Leon/Maroon could get it done.

    Why do I get the sense that the team will have to get shutout before MacLellan rethinks his ‘all of the eggs in one basket’ strategy?

    The Oil seem very reluctant to consider the possibilities of RNH as a W. Not sure why that is when he’s underperforming as a C. Have they learned nothing from Sam Gagner?

  30. kinger_OIL says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – I like this “thought problem”

    – I don’t see how he goes into next year with these two Steve Austins at this production

    – How that $12MM is spent going forward is going to be very interesting

    – Another way to think about the whole package:

    Before:
    3 Steve Austins @ $18MM.

    Now:
    + (Larsson + $1.8MM) – (Hall)
    2 Steve Austins @ $12MM

    2017, I’d guess:
    + (Larsson + $1.8MM) – (Hall)
    + (new cheaper guy + cash relief) – (Eberle)
    RNH @ $6MM

    2018:
    RNH is gone, McDavid and Drai are your 2 centres, for long-term total cost < 3 Steve Austins

  31. JDï™ says:

    Here’s the transaction you weren’t expecting:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 2m2 minutes ago

    #Oilers recall Jujhar Khaira from @Condors & assign Anton Lander. Khaira has 18 points (8G, 10A) in 24 @TheAHL games this season.

  32. Chachi says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Woodguy,

    I wouldn’t count on it being Hendricks that sits. Lander played a total of one second on the PK when there’s an argument to be made that he’s our best forward on the PK (him or Letestu I’d say, look ar the way he kills lanes), if he’s in the lineup that’s where he could make his main contribution, if the coach uses Pouliot and Kassian over him when the PK has gone down the toilet the last few weeks it’s pretty clear Lander isn’t held in high regard by the coach and seen as a warm body and not really a useful player. He also took 1 draw on a night where Oilers struggled on the dot. I think Lander burned so many bridges with his struggles last season that McLellan has a hard time trusting him at all. I hope I’m wrong as I think Lander can be a solid cog as a 4th liner and PKer. And a far more efficient player than Hendricks at this moment in time.

    Right on cue Lander to AHL and Khaira up.

  33. Dennis King says:

    Oilers hanging onto Matt Hendricks for dear life

  34. Chachi says:

    Dennis King:
    Oilers hanging onto Matt Hendricks for dear life

    Yup. I would be shocked if they take him out for Khaira or Slepyshev next game.

  35. Bag of Pucks says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Bag of Pucks,

    – I like this “thought problem”

    – I don’t see how he goes into next year with these two Steve Austins at this production

    – How that $12MM is spent going forward is going to be very interesting

    – Another way to think about the whole package:

    Before:
    3 Steve Austins @ $18MM.

    Now:
    + (Larsson + $1.8MM) – (Hall)
    2 Steve Austins @ $12MM

    2017, I’d guess:
    + (Larsson + $1.8MM) – (Hall)
    + (new cheaper guy + cash relief) – (Eberle)
    RNH @ $6MM

    2018:
    RNH is gone, McDavid and Drai are your 2 centres, for long-term total cost < 3 Steve Austins

    Agree. In terms of the math and roster spots, I kind of look at it as follows

    OUT
    Hall LW
    Eberle RW
    RNH C
    $18 MM per

    IN
    Larsson 1RD $4.2 MM
    Lucic 1LW $6 MM
    RH PP QB (est. $6.5 MM)
    1RW in FA (est. $5.5 MM)

    I replace the C depth lost in dealing RNH with a lottery pick C on an ELC

    In many ways, you’re getting a ‘do over’ on the RNH pick/contract, freeing up monies for FA in the short-term.

  36. digger50 says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Does Lucic count as as a new Steve Austin? Where does his 5×5 production sit in comparison?

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    digger50:
    kinger_OIL,

    Does Lucic count as as a new Steve Austin? Where does his 5×5 production sit in comparison?

    I would consider him as one but wouldn’t make any hasty judgements on him until we see him in the playoffs. Judging Lucic on his regular season is a bit like evaluating a demolition derby car in the quarter mile imo.

    Right now, we’re questioning the contract value. See him in a 7 game series against LA or SJ and we’ll likely want to give him a raise!

  38. Bruce Wayne says:

    RNH and Eberle aren’t problems. They make plays even when they aren’t scoring.

    Lucic is the six million dollar anchor.

    This means, of course, that it will be Eberle and RNH out the door. That said, I doubt any of them have much trade value right now.

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    Sad thought for today. If Tambi had simply drafted Larsson over RNH, 90% of what ails this roster today is likely moot.

  40. kinger_OIL says:

    digger50:
    kinger_OIL,

    Does Lucic count as as a new Steve Austin? Where does his 5×5 production sit in comparison?

    – I don’t think I’ve ever articulated this before but to me the trade was Larsson for Hall and 30% rebate in salary (Difference between salaries)

    – Lucic therefore, @ $6MM, really only has to “produce” @ 70% of Hall’s performance

    – Dollars in and Dollars out, that’s how I saw the trade and sign.

  41. JDï™ says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Sad thought for today. If Tambi had simply drafted Larsson over RNH, 90% of what ails this roster today is likely moot.

    Adam, this is Andrew. He’s going to be your partner on the top pairing, and will show you the ropes of playing in the NHL.

  42. doritogrande says:

    LT: is there a chance you have RLR’s current Top-10? I’m curious to see which 10 skaters they have ahead of Hishier, and then laugh all the way home.

  43. Chachi says:

    JDï™: Adam, this is Andrew. He’s going to be your partner on the top pairing, and will show you the ropes of playing in the NHL.

    LOL

  44. Professor Q says:

    Isn’t it great that our two Swedish D have marvelous hair? Well, Neon Leon, too.

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    RNH and Eberle aren’t problems.They make plays even when they aren’t scoring.

    Lucic is the six million dollar anchor.

    This means, of course, that it will be Eberle and RNH out the door.That said, I doubt any of them have much trade value right now.

    The key to thriving in a Cap system is to stop looking at your own org’s internal valuations on players and instead look at market value for roster spots. Are you getting the best bang for your buck at each position?

    Given their development investment, the Oil will likely always over-value RNH and Eberle and thus if you start with the preconception that ‘you have to get what they’re alleged worth is in trade return’ you will likely never pull the trigger on a deal until the asset is completely worthless. This has been the Oilers’ asset management history time and time again.

    How can you better spend $12 million in the market to upgrade? That is the question. Not who do we have to trade for to win a RNH or Eberle trade?

    With McDavid, the OIlers are a desirable FA destination now. That’s HUGE. It means we don’t have to WIN every trade. Simply moving out players underperforming their cap hit and replacing them with better value contracts and production via FA is the win.

    Especially when you consider that RNH and Eberle are not scoring like top end talent this season NOR are they driving the play. For that reason, paying them $6 mil per is a drain on your economic efficiencies.

    The key is to be like the NE Patriots. When in doubt, they always trade their highest salaried players one season too early as opposed to one season too late. The only constants are Brady and Gronk, and I suspect that McDavid and Leon will be this team’s constants ala Kane and Toews.

  46. Professor Q says:

    The most pressing question:

    Did Lowetide manage to get Bruce to smile?

  47. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Sad thought for today. If Tambi had simply drafted Larsson over RNH, 90% of what ails this roster today is likely moot.

    Explain how.

    If we’d had drafted Crosby, Ovechkin, Doughty etc, we would have probably won a cup. If we’d won a few more games, then we wouldn’t have McDavid. Thinking like this is a nail in the coffin of results based analysis.

    It’s not a sad thought. It just is. And do you really think that our problems would not be here? No, we’d have other problems. Different problems. Maybe Burke is GM, Torts is the coach and we’ve just sat Larsson for the 6th straight game. He had his warts. Still does.

    It’s not so much that there’s a pivotal moment where one can say “THEN, that was the moment that screwed us.” No. It’s been death by a thousand cuts for years. And as we slowly sunk, so must we slowly rise. That’s what Chia and Nicholson know. No short cut to success, even with McDavid. We have nearly a decade of gross mismanagement to overcome, and that doesn’t happen in two seasons, let alone one. The brand has to be rebuilt, our standing amongst the other teams also, so that when someone wants the deal of the century, the Oiler’s number is on speed dial. We need GRAVITAS.

    I rarely agree with Dustin Neilsen in the morning TSN show, but he brought up a good point this morning: Why, after just one year, were we expecting to win last night’s game? What gives us that right, seeing as last year, it would have been not only a scheduled loss, but cricket score to boot? And maybe Jumbo Joe makes a few jokes at our expense too.

    Let me tell you, I bet big and little Joe took last night’s game VERY seriously, seeing as we were only a point behind them.

    We as fans have a bad case of reset windup. We’re either riding the highs and projecting playoff rosters, or running guys out of town for unacceptable performances on and off the ice. There appears to be no middle ground.

  48. Timeisnow says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    EIGHT straight losses on Tuesdays now.

    EIGHT in a row.

    EIGHT.

    Bruce and LT. I’m not normally a superstitious but, I’m a wondering about this Wed. morning gig you two have going on?!?!

  49. Alpine says:

    Eberle’s replacements in FA this year aren’t likely to be better value than he is. Radulov would be ideal but MTL isn’t gonna let him go unsigned. Vanek and Williams are into their 30s and probably aren’t trustworthy on LT deals, Vanek especially. Oshie is three years older than 14 and has averaged worse production over the last few years.

    So there’s pretty slim pickings out there, and with a potential bidding war for Oshie as the only potentially youngish available option, I’d rather not add to the Lucic collection of non-elite forwards being paid into their mid-30s.

  50. Professor Q says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Although Gronk came late. They’ll probably trade him soon, too, due to resurgence of other TEs this season. Like you’ve said, they’ve done this with almost every position

    They’ve been incredibly lucky in the draft (and a few xGates) but they do seem to have a successful drafting, development, and trading system; as well as being a fan hub.

    Could the Oilers do the same? They’d almost have to become a merger of the Columbus/Minnesota and Detroit/Chicago systems in order to do the same as New England on NHL terms.

  51. russ99 says:

    Kind of bummed about Lander being sent down again, but if we can acquire a center or winger and send Slepyshev back down, then that means we finally have a good AHL first scoring line since before the Roadrunners.

  52. Pescador says:

    Kepler62:
    Slepyshev honestly looks like an NHL player whenever he gets in a game – hope management sees it too (the recall would say they do).I think he’s been handled really well so far. As a more mature player at the start of last season he was given a quick look at the NHL then sent to the AHL for the rest of the season. This season he’s gotten more NHL action while also more time to hone his skills and boost his confidence in the AHL.

    Development done right in my opinion.

    Agreed, as long as they don’t Lander him if he doesn’t score immediately. He looks like a player that needs to consistently be in the line up to find his NHL game, which most of us can see is there or very close. Of course he needs confidence, which he will get from scoring. But he needs to score to get that confidence which will help him score. Uhgg! Chicken or the Egg?

  53. Alpine says:

    I think the only way to really move guys who are slumping for cheaper guys who will produce is to actually have blue chip prospects in the waiting who can step in. I don’t really think the Oilers have that luxury. Replacing RNH with Drai doesn’t count because who replaces Drai? Puljujarvi is probably a year away from doing this and then they still need another RW.

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Here’s the thing with playing the ‘all roads lead to McDavid’ card. It was a freaking lottery win (i.e. a completely random occurence),

    All these people that rationalize the poor moves up to that event as if they somehow resulted in some lottery mojo? How does that hold water exactly? You’re going to have fire up the butterfly effect time machine in a big big way to ever convince me that moves like drafting Yakupov, Hall or RNH had anything to do with winning the McDavid lottery or the tea in China for that matter.

    All the Oil needed was a ticket for the lottery and then the Hockey Gods aligning in their favour. And I would suggest that simply drafting Larsson over RNH would not have been impactful enough as a single transaction to prevent them landing that ticket. They still would’ve been extremely bad.

    Where it would help now though is you don’t have to trade Hall for Larsson as you already had him and you don’t have to ponder trading RNH now as you never drafted him. For that reason, that draft was extremely pivotal in the history of the franchise. Denying otherwise is to deny reality.

  55. Professor Q says:

    russ99:
    Kind of bummed about Lander being sent down again, but if we can acquire a center or winger and send Slepyshev back down, then that means we finally have a good AHL first scoring line since before the Roadrunners.

    The Kid Line was in OKC. 😉

  56. Professor Q says:

    Alpine,

    I still do love the appeal of a Kovalchuk signing. Not as an Eberle replacement, though, but as an accent.

  57. Dennis King says:

    I think the Tuesday streak perseveres because LT and Bruce continue to practice Sex Magic on Monday nights.

    That’s just a hunch, tho

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    Professor Q:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Although Gronk came late. They’ll probably trade him soon, too, due to resurgence of other TEs this season. Like you’ve said, they’ve done this with almost every position

    They’ve been incredibly lucky in the draft (and a few xGates) but they do seem to have a successful drafting, development, and trading system; as well as being a fan hub.

    Could the Oilers do the same? They’d almost have to become a merger of the Columbus/Minnesota and Detroit/Chicago systems in order to do the same as New England on NHL terms.

    Absolutely. Drafting and development is key to winning in a Cap system. That’s your key pipeline for cap efficient contracts.

    Longterm, moving out the high priced vets for the emerging prospects (ala Chi-town) has to be the model.

    But right now, the top priority is achieving maximum cap efficiency out of the roster, and RNH and Eberle are two notable inefficiencies.

    JP may fix the Eberle problem by himself. But man, if they could get a good vet on a 1 or 2 year deal to bridge the development timeline. Even better.

  59. Georges says:

    The TMac era has been bad for Nuge. With CMD, Nuge is no longer 1C. Leon takes Nuge’s spot on the first unit PP. Leon can play 2C minutes if necessary and TMac prefers that option. Nuge is out killing penalties nearly as much as Letestu and Hendricks. He’s now a defensive specialist when he’s not that special at defense. He’s shown a lower offensive ceiling than other first overalls. (It’s lower than Eberle’s.) His usage right now is only going to lower that ceiling. TMac has criticized Nuge’s faceoff results. He compared Nuge to Leon on faceoffs and said Leon works harder at getting better. Nuge’s rookie year was so promising. He got paid on that promise. The league catches up fast. And the coach has lost some confidence. Maybe it ends well. Who knows?

  60. JDï™ says:

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/practice-updates-0111/c-285561798?tid=281885062

    Iiro Pakarinen is skating with the team.

    Lines at practice are:

    Maroon – McDavid – Draisaitl

    Pouliot – Nugent-Hopkins – Eberle

    Lucic – Caggiula – Slepyshev

    Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian

  61. Bruce Wayne says:

    I don’t agree that Eberle and RNH can be easily replaced in free agency. Just this past year we signed a noted unrestricted free agent, who is playing worse, who is signed for eternity, and has a
    NMC.

    If you look at the scoring leaders, you don’t see unrestricted free agents. You see young players and superstars. You can’t get the superstars so you have to find the hidden gems. Guys like Cam Atkinson or Panarin.

    That is easier said than done. Trading Eberle or RNH for salary cap space only works if you have something good to use that salary space on. Moreover, if you trade them you are taking a player back, so you aren’t saving as much as you think.

  62. JDï™ says:

    Yes!

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 58s59 seconds ago

    There’s a “good chance” Slepyshev & Davidson will be in the #Oilers lineup against New Jersey tomorrow, says Coach McLellan.

  63. SVR says:

    Lander demotion could turn out to be just what the doctor ordered for JP development in Bakersfield. Get him up and running with an elite AHL center to play with

  64. oscarmike says:

    Nuge and Eberle are to soft.
    Lucic has more points on the year then both these guys.
    Lucic needs to play with the men that can cycle the puck.
    Lucic-Letestu-Kassain. (Grind line that can cycle)

    Put the soft kids together
    Drake-Nuge-Eberle. ( the suppose skilled line)
    Drake needs to play with skilled players to make an impact.
    He got 25 goals in 39 games last year but he was playing the wing.
    Drake is a better skater than Pou and Lucic.

    The expandable line.
    Pou/hendy-JJ-slepy( least ice time and offensive zones starts.)

    Maroon-Mcdavid-Drai
    Drake-Nuge-Eberle
    Lucic-Letestu-Kass
    Pou-JJ-Slepy

  65. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Jethro Tull,

    Here’s the thing with playing the ‘all roads lead to McDavid’ card. It was a freaking lottery win (i.e. a completely random occurence),

    All these people that rationalize the poor moves up to that event as if they somehow resulted in some lottery mojo? How does that hold water exactly? You’re going to have fire up the butterfly effect time machine in a big big way to ever convince me that moves like drafting Yakupov, Hall or RNH had anything to do with winning the McDavid lottery or the tea in China for that matter.

    All the Oil needed was a ticket for the lottery and then the Hockey Gods aligning in their favour. And I would suggest that simply drafting Larsson over RNH would not have been impactful enough as a single transaction to prevent them landing that ticket. They still would’ve been extremely bad.

    1) It was a lottery we were in only because we sucked due to horrible management and terrible players.

    2) It was you who has to fire up the Butterfly Effect time machine to prove that drafting Larsson would have produced better results than drafting RNH because you proposed it. You have burden of proof.

    3) Where did I say that drafting those players got us McDavid?

    4) I was trying to highlight the complexities of causality.

    Bag of Pucks: Where it would help now though is you don’t have to trade Hall for Larsson as you already had him and you don’t have to ponder trading RNH now as you never drafted him. For that reason, that draft was extremely pivotal in the history of the franchise. Denying otherwise is to deny reality.

    5) We also don’t have to ponder trading PK Subban. Or Shea Weber. Or Sidney Crosby. Or Strawy McStrawman.

    6) Who say’s we drafted Hall? Maybe we drafted Seguin instead. Now, would we be trading Seguin for Larsson?

    7) your last sentence: Really man? I mean c’mon, really?

  66. fifthcartel says:

    How long until Matt Benning is their best RHD?

  67. JDï™ says:

    fifthcartel:
    How long until Matt Benning is their best RHD?

    What time is it?

  68. Aron_S says:

    JDï™:
    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/practice-updates-0111/c-285561798?tid=281885062


    Iiro Pakarinen is skating with the team.

    Lines at practice are:

    Maroon – McDavid – Draisaitl

    Pouliot – Nugent-Hopkins – Eberle

    Lucic – Caggiula – Slepyshev

    Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian

    If they would swap Hendricks for Khaira or Lander, that’s about as good of a forward line up as the Oilers can ice right now.

  69. SoCaloil says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Work in San Diego, Live in Carlsbad, CA

  70. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    The player that falls farther than he should in this draft, and subsequently makes a lot of teams look silly, this year will be Kailer Yamamoto.

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    I don’t agree that Eberle and RNH can be easily replaced in free agency.

    For $12MM this season, Eberle and RNH have collectively scored 16 goals.
    For the league minimum, UFA Sam Gagner has scored 14 goals.

    The minute you’re able to wrap your head around this concept is the minute you stop thinking of your roster players as names and histories and start of thinking of them as cap hits and production outputs.

    And it’s pointless to discuss Lucic with you cos your personal bias towards that player knows no limits.

  72. JDï™ says:

    Jumpstart ‏@CTJumpstart 12m12 minutes ago

    Jumpstart Retweeted Edmonton Oilers

    We’re helping @EdmontonOilers get kids active for 60mins a day by challenging classrooms to the #EnergizeOilCountry initiative!

    Maybe they can help the Oilers get active for 60 minutes per game?

  73. russ99 says:

    Professor Q: The Kid Line was in OKC.

    The lockout Barons don’t count. 🙂

  74. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Here’s an interesting thought experiment to test yourself as an armchair GM. In other words, think you’re smarter than Chiarelli, then here’s a nice conundrum for you : )

    If RNH and Eberle continue to produce below expectations, what should Chiarelli do with those players/contracts as the trade deadline approaches and heading into the offseason?

    Much like the Hall return, I’m becoming increasingly convinced that how Pete maximizes those two assets, in conjunction with how these moves impact the salary structure for the ‘core reboot’ will determine how many Cups this group wins (if any).

    The previous regime almost ALWAYS waited until their players bottomed out before they traded them for pennies on the dollar. The recent exceptions (Smid, Perron) are so rare that it defies belief on how truly bad this organization has been at asset management.

    And now we have two large contract players trending in the wrong direction again. For RNH, he’s midway through his second underwhelming season in a row. Eberle’s slump may just be a short-term trend but his inability to make hay alongside McDavid puts an added spotlight on his cap hit imo.

    If I’m Chia, I’m looking for youngish players in other orgs that have displayed top end offensive skills but are possibly having an off year and may benefit from a change of venue. Players like Lindholm in CAR, Landeskog in COL, Theodore in ANA, Ceci in OTT.

    If RNH can’t produce goals as a Top 6 W, I deal him. $6mil is too much of a luxury for a 3C with FO% deficiencies. If Eberle, doesn’t produce Gs at an elite rate over the back half of this season, I deal him. Too much cap hit for streaky scorer with defensive and boardwork issues. The roster gaps I’d like to fill in return are 1RW and RH PP QB

    Eberle, I would trade at the deadline to a team in contention with a surplus of defensive depth but lacking in top end scoring that’s hoping to make a playoff push (e.g. Panthers, Kings, Canes, Flames, etc.). Add a sweetener if need be to land the PP QB. RNH I would deal at the draft to move up the board into a top lottery pick. Money saved from both would be used to land a premium RW in free agency to slot alongside McDavid.

    Just to be clear, you want Chia to get full value when trading Eberle and RNH, yet you want them traded at the deadline. You can’t get full value for those guys if you trade them in the next couple months.

  75. jimmers2 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    EIGHT straight losses on Tuesdays now.

    EIGHT in a row.

    EIGHT.

    Tabarnac Tuesday!

    Criss de calice de tabarnak d’osti, et Remeda aussi, maudit!

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jethro Tull,

    The problem with your argument imo is your desire to conflate an RNH vs Larsson decision with infinite variables.

    In fact, it was a considered A/B choice at that point in history and thus the merits of it can still be evaluated accordingly.

    Let’s say the decision instead was a company considering the acquisition of two potential companies, and how said acquisitions would impact their market viability and performance going forward, Yes, there’s a million other potential companies they could have purchased, but that doesn’t prevent them for re-assessing the two they were considering and ultimately how that decision impacted their asset base both present day and for the forseeable future.

  77. Bruce Wayne says:

    Bag of Pucks: For $12MM this season, Eberle and RNH have collectively scored 16 goals.
    For the league minimum, UFA Sam Gagner has scored 14 goals.

    The minute you’re able to wrap your head around this concept is the minute you stop thinking of your roster players as names and histories and start of thinking of them as cap hits and production outputs.

    You need to wrap your head around the concept of probabilities. You don’t pay for production output, you pay for the probability of production output.

    It is not knowable in advance which NHL players are going to exceed their probably output in any given season, and so you should acquire, keep, and dispose, players solely on their probability of success.

    What you are suggesting is that a random league minimum scorer has a higher probable production output than Jordan Eberle. That is demonstrably false.

    Also, Lucic sucks.

  78. Pink Socks says:

    Bag of Pucks: The key to thriving in a Cap system is to stop looking at your own org’s internal valuations on players and instead look at market value for roster spots. Are you getting the best bang for your buck at each position?

    Given their development investment, the Oil will likely always over-value RNH and Eberle and thus if you start with the preconception that ‘you have to get what they’re alleged worth is in trade return’ you will likely never pull the trigger on a deal until the asset is completely worthless. This has been the Oilers’ asset management history time and time again.

    How can you better spend $12 million in the market to upgrade? That is the question. Not who do we have to trade for to win a RNH or Eberle trade?

    With McDavid, the OIlers are a desirable FA destination now. That’s HUGE. It means we don’t have to WIN every trade. Simply moving out players underperforming their cap hit and replacing them with better value contracts and production via FA is the win.

    This is a terrific post. It isn’t about necessarily winning a trade based on face value, it’s about maximizing the value for every dollar spent.

  79. JDï™ says:

    Bruce McCurdy: EIGHT straight losses on Tuesdays now.

    Just found a site for situation stats: http://www.shrpsports.com/nhl/result.htm

    It lists the results of every game on that day, and then gives a summary of their record. The Oilers are 193 wins, 208 losses, 32 ties, 14 OTL and 10 SOL on Tuesdays.

  80. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965: Just to be clear, you want Chia to get full value when trading Eberle and RNH, yet you want them traded at the deadline. You can’t get full value for those guys if you trade them in the next couple months.

    No. I’m not particularly fussed if the trades themselves yield ‘full value’ (whatever the definition of that may be) precisely because that value is completely subjective, and orgs have been shown to greatly overvalue their own players.

    I believe Chiarelli needs to get optimal value for his cap expenditures as expressed by production output (i.e. goals).

    I would suggest Chia headed into the season projecting 20 goals for RNH and 30 goals for Eberle. In other words, 50 goals for $12 million. Can the GM achieve that by spending his money elsewhere? I suspect he can, and in fact, can likely exceed that production output for that cap outlay.

  81. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I would simply label that what it is.

    Fluke

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    RNH and Eberle aren’t problems.They make plays even when they aren’t scoring.

    Lucic is the six million dollar anchor.

    This means, of course, that it will be Eberle and RNH out the door.That said, I doubt any of them have much trade value right now.

    I still have faith in RNH and Eberle, but I would like to see them produce more. What I do know for 100% certainty is that you are not replacing them with free agents. The only half decent free agent is TJ Oshie and he will command $6 milli for 7 years. No thanks.

  83. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce Wayne: You need to wrap your head around the concept of probabilities.You don’t pay for production output, you pay for the probability of production output.

    It is not knowable inadvance which NHL players are going to exceed their probably output in any given season, and so you should acquire, keep, and dispose, players solely on their probability of success.

    What you are suggesting is that a random league minimum scorer has a higher probable production output than Jordan Eberle.That is demonstrably false.

    Also, Lucic sucks.

    I understood probabilities implicitly and in essence, identifying those ‘good bets’ and making them is Chia’s core function.

    What’s clear is thus far this season, Eberle and RNH have returns equatable to bad bets.

    Doubling down until the % rolls in their favour is certainly an option AND that has been standard operating procedure for this org.

    But RNH’s is having his second poor season in a row and Eberle stunk alongside McDavid. Sometimes the smarter play is to clear out the dead money on the roster and bring in some fresh bodies with the possibilities for high probability production return – which is precisely the type of player I endorsed in the original post on this subject.

  84. tsg says:

    kinger_OIL: – I don’t think I’ve ever articulated this before but to me the trade was Larsson for Hall and 30% rebate in salary (Difference between salaries)

    – Lucic therefore, @ $6MM, really only has to “produce” @ 70% of Hall’s performance

    – Dollars in and Dollars out, that’s how I saw the trade and sign.

    This doesn’t jive with your argument made further down, in establishing value at each position in a cap world. Lucic as a support player at $6 million is not value. Hall as a driver of play at $6 million is value. Larsson at $4.1 million as a number 4 defenseman is not value relative to league average. If he becomes a legit, quality number 2 in terms of performance he will be paid in line with league average for the position.

    The swap you’re describing can not be justified on a salary cap efficiency basis as you are losing cap efficiency (breaking even on Larsson if I’m being generous), relative to league average at each position you just described with the changes in personnel made.

  85. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    But why would a capable and smart GM weigh a body of evidence found in 3 months of hockey vs the previous 5 years? Yes Nuge isn’t playing great, fair point. Eberle put up good to great numbers with McDavid last year but didn’t fare as well this year. Mixed results I’d say.

    If you want these two guys flushed just say it. No need to try and drum up a justification that doesn’t meet the smell test if you go back a few more months.

  86. Bag of Pucks says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I would simply label that what it is.

    Fluke

    And that’s fair, but the key is to establish which direction the players are trending in and plan accordingly.

    For example, Cam Atkinson is having a breakout year. You can absolutely trade for a player like that we’re they’re still trending in that direction (say last season) and the best way to do it is by dealing a player trending in the opposite direction.

    CBJ had a disappointing year last season. Would they have entertained an Eberle for Atkinson deal at the deadline to change up their mix? I think it’s possible.

    It takes the balls of a pirate to sell an established ‘name’ player trending downward for an relatively unknown emerging player trending upward but that’s precisely how you win in a Cap world.

    Again, the NE Patriots. They drop players like Wes Welker before the rest of the world thinks it’s the right time to trade him, not after. That’s how you outperform the competition.

  87. Georges says:

    Woodguy:

    SJS and ANA are pulling away from the pack in the Pacific and with two losses in a row, EDM is not a part of their conversation.

    That was fast. SJS and ANA haven’t shown anything so far to suggest they’re great teams or we’re out of the running. They’re OK. We’re OK. They’ve got problems. We’ve got problems. I’m going to wait a bit before calling that one.

  88. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks: The key to thriving in a Cap system is to stop looking at your own org’s internal valuations on players and instead look at market value for roster spots. Are you getting the best bang for your buck at each position?

    Given their development investment, the Oil will likely always over-value RNH and Eberle and thus if you start with the preconception that ‘you have to get what they’re alleged worth is in trade return’ you will likely never pull the trigger on a deal until the asset is completely worthless. This has been the Oilers’ asset management history time and time again.

    How can you better spend $12 million in the market to upgrade? That is the question. Not who do we have to trade for to win a RNH or Eberle trade?

    With McDavid, the OIlers are a desirable FA destination now. That’s HUGE. It means we don’t have to WIN every trade. Simply moving out players underperforming their cap hit and replacing them with better value contracts and production via FA is the win.

    Especially when you consider that RNH and Eberle are not scoring like top end talent this season NOR are they driving the play. For that reason, paying them $6 mil per is a drain on your economic efficiencies.

    The key is to be like the NE Patriots. When in doubt, they always trade their highest salaried players one season too early as opposed to one season too late. The only constants are Brady and Gronk, and I suspect that McDavid and Leon will be this team’s constants ala Kane and Toews.

    No offence dude, but signing free agents is not a winning solution. Good teams simply don’t sign high-priced free agents. The Oilers will be a good team when they no longer need to fill gaping holes with expensive, aging free agents. And I think we are getting close to that now.

    Trading RNH and Eberle is fine, but replacing them in free agency will not happen. You can sign 30 year old TJ Oshie for $6 mill over seven years, but who the hell wants to do that? Radulov is 30 as well and he will command even more money. In most cases, the only good free-agent signings are the small deals for lesser guys like Russell.

    I do agree with trading guys while they still have value, especially if you can get young guys with upside. However, you’re simply not replacing them with free agents.

  89. Bruce Wayne says:

    Bag of Pucks: No. I’m not particularly fussed if the trades themselves yield ‘full value’ (whatever the definition of that may be) precisely because that value is completely subjective, and orgs have been shown to greatly overvalue their own players.

    I believe Chiarelli needs to get optimal value for his cap expenditures as expressed by production output (i.e. goals).

    I would suggest Chia headed into the season projecting 20 goals for RNH and 30 goals for Eberle. In other words, 50 goals for $12 million. Can the GM achieve that by spending his money elsewhere? I suspect he can, and in fact, can likely exceed that production output for that cap outlay.

    Interesting. I think you are wrong on both counts.

    50 goals out of RNH and Eberle as a probable production is wildly optimistic. Their 3 yr running average is 44 goals, and that is without baking in the risk of longterm injury, attrition, etc. 50 goals is a highly unreasonable expectation.

    If you think you can get a probable 50 goals for 12 million elsewhere, you have a very skewed sense of the cost of goals. And that is without costing in the longterm nature of these contracts.

  90. Bag of Pucks says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
    Bag of Pucks,

    But why would a capable and smart GM weigh a body of evidence found in 3 months of hockey vs the previous 5 years? Yes Nuge isn’t playing great, fair point. Eberle put up good to great numbers with McDavid last year but didn’t fare as well this year. Mixed results I’d say.

    If you want these two guys flushed just say it. No need to try and drum up a justification that doesn’t meet the smell test if you go back a few more months.

    I want Chiarelli to spend his cap efficiently. If you equate that to ‘flushing,’ fill your boots. The larger point is you don’t win Cups in this league without cap efficiency and those players are currently cap inefficient, as is Lucic, The difference is you can still make a market value argument for Lucic’s contract. You likely can’t for RNH or Eberle. And you’re paying Lucic for what he does in the postseason because of the type of player he is. He’s more Claude Lemieux than Marcel Dionne.

  91. Bruce Wayne says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    In the past three years prior to this one, Cam Atkinson scored 70 goals to Eberle’s 77, for 3.5 million dollars.

    Your example presupposes the other guy doing something stupid. What you are actually talking about is trading Jordan Eberle for William Karlson, or something like that.

  92. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce Wayne: Interesting.I think you are wrong on both counts.

    50 goals out of RNH and Eberle as a probable production is wildly optimistic.Their 3 yr running average is 44 goals, and that is without baking in the risk of longterm injury, attrition, etc.50 goals is a highly unreasonable expectation.

    If you think you can get a probable 50 goals for 12 million elsewhere, you have a very skewed sense of the cost of goals.And that is without costing in the longterm nature of these contracts.

    The Oilers set their salary structure so that RNH, Eberle and Hall established the upper marker. They did so projecting all three as the eventual top line, for which they would be a bargain if they became outscorers at that level. In other words, they expected them to eventually elevate their play and not stay at their baseline production output in perpetuity. Now, not only are they no longer hitting the historically established baseline, they’re trending downward.

    Both of these players were expected to take a step up this season with a more balanced roster. 30Gs is a reasonable ask for Eberle playing alongside McDavid. Nuge has scored 20 before. These are hardly stratospheric expectations.

  93. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965: No offence dude, but signing free agents is not a winning solution. Good teams simply don’t sign high-priced free agents.

    Are you sure? You might want to look at the Washington Capitals.

  94. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Jethro Tull,

    The problem with your argument imo is your desire to conflate an RNH vs Larsson decision with infinite variables.

    In fact, it was a considered A/B choice at that point in history and thus the merits of it can still be evaluated accordingly.

    Let’s say the decision instead was a company considering the acquisition of two potential companies, and how said acquisitions would impact their market viability and performance going forward, Yes, there’s a million other potential companies they could have purchased, but that doesn’t prevent them for re-assessing the two they were considering and ultimately how that decision impacted their asset base both present day and for the forseeable future.

    But there are infinite variables.

    For funsies, let’s evaluate (wrong word, as evaluation is based on known facts) so instead let’s best guess:

    1) Edmonton draft Larsson, a consensus #4 pick (actually picked #4 OV). RNH falls to Colorado, Huberdeau to NJ. Shit, let’s make it really fun and say Larsson and RNH swap places, even though RNH was ahead by a country mile as #1 OV. (Neglecting the fact that EDM was sorely in need of centers at the time.)

    2) RNH goes to a very defense minded team. Nothing wrong there, he’s behind quite a few people, Zajac, Elias and Henrique. This is the year they make the final. Good team.

    3) Larsson comes to Edmonton where he’s behind Jeff Petry in a system that wouldn’t know what to do with a good young D man if their life depended on it, He is also blamed when management realize that once again, another talented young d man refuses to be Chris Pronger in his prime.

    4) Larsson surpasses Petry, playing 25mins a night. Oilers marginally better. Then in comes the swarm. Goes through his sophomore slump, then consequently is challenged with a one year contract. For some reason, he and his agent don’t like this. He now plays for St. Louis and has won two cups.

    5) 2015/16, RNH is now ready to assume 3rd line center role with NJD. Yet to break 50pts.

    6) In 2012 season, Edmonton traded Taylor Hall for a Eric Staal, as they had no-one at center, because they didn’t draft one. He puts up 53pts.

    Your mistake is faith in the people in charge at the time. If we’d have drafted Larsson, he would have been developed and asset managed by the same people who brought you the Souray saga, the Petry Chronicles and the Schultz Affair. But, yeah, we wouldn’t have ever traded Hall.

  95. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    How long until Matt Benning is their best RHD?

    What time is it?

  96. Woodguy says:

    JDï™: What time is it?

    Well shit.

    Great minds and all…..

  97. Alpine says:

    Bag of Pucks: Are you sure? You might want to look at the Washington Capitals.

    Yeah we should definitely go waste 5 mil of our cap on Brooks Orpik.

  98. Woodguy says:

    Dennis King:
    I think the Tuesday streak perseveres because LT and Bruce continue to practice Sex Magic on Monday nights.

    That’s just a hunch, tho

    Ha!

    Well, well, well, look who the cat dragged in.

    Just have to get Riv, Pat and few others to post and it will be like Old Home Week.

    Good to see you post again.

  99. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    How do you get around the illlogical loop of brushing aside Lucic’s lacklustre 5v5 scoring levels so far this season (while playing a big chunk of it with McDavid) while using past playoff performance to justify his high value while at the same time deriding RNH and Eberle value using the same metrics you’ve given Lucic a pass on?

    Full Disclosure: I am hugely disappointed in the seasons that Eberle and RNH are having offensively this season. But much like the Oilers patented “around the board and out” breakout system I also don’t believe Eberle has forgotten that he gets paid to score. Sometimes you go through a slump, shit happens and with a marriage on the way and his best man getting traded away who knows maybe thats weighing on him a tad. Not an excuse, again I’m not happy that he isn’t scoring, but a justification perhaps.

  100. JimmyV1965 says:

    If we are to truly follow your strategy Bag of Pucks it’s not Eberle and RNH we should be trading. It’s Maroon. I love this guy, maybe my favourtie Oiler, but his production today is way off the norm. He will also be due for a huge spike in salary. And imagine what kind of return you get for him right now. A truly contending team would give up the moon for Maroon at the deadline.

  101. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Assuming everything you say is true, in this hypothetical scenario what if Larsson is still on the roster when Chiarelli takes over? Are you suggesting the new regime couldn’t sort out his development? Kind of like they’re doing with Klefbom and Nurse?

    And if all of what you suggest is true, why did Hall become a star. Was he simply the outlier/fluke in the whole experiment?

  102. Woodguy says:

    Re: Lander down and Khaira up

    I look forward to seeing Khaira up, thought he was very good with 93-14 last year.

    Lander is a high end AHL center (100pts in last 80 games or so)

    They may have asked Lander to be their Crash Davis and hold the high end prospect’s hand and help him score in the AHL.

  103. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965:
    If we are to truly follow your strategy Bag of Pucks it’s not Eberle and RNH we should be trading. It’s Maroon. I love this guy, maybe my favourtie Oiler, but his production today is way off the norm. He will also be due for a huge spike in salary. And imagine what kind of return you get for him right now. A truly contending team would give up the moon for Maroon at the deadline.

    True, if you see Maroon’s trend line as a one and done. What if he’s an emerging ‘Lucic in his prime’ with 3 stellar seasons ahead of him?

    But you’re right, he could be incredibly attractive on the trade market. Parakyo for Maroon? I’d do that deal and I LOVE Patty as a player.

  104. Bag of Pucks says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
    Bag of Pucks,

    How do you get around the illlogical loop of brushing aside Lucic’s lacklustre 5v5 scoring levels so far this season (while playing a big chunk of it with McDavid) while using past playoff performance to justify his high value while at the same time deriding RNH and Eberle value using the same metrics you’ve given Lucic a pass on?

    Full Disclosure: I am hugely disappointed in the seasons that Eberle and RNH are having offensively this season. But much like the Oilers patented “around the board and out” breakout system I also don’t believe Eberle has forgotten that he gets paid to score. Sometimes you go through a slump, shit happens and with a marriage on the way and his best man getting traded away who knows maybe thats weighing on him a tad. Not an excuse, again I’m not happy that he isn’t scoring, but a justification perhaps.

    A) I think you have to give Lucic some time to acclimate to a new team. And he is producing. It’s not like he’s posting goose eggs. Made a helluva pass last night on the Benning goal.

    B) I think what you’re seeing with RNH and Eberle are players struggling with TMac’s system. The Oilers are becoming a structured system, tight checking, cycle team. They have a rush line with McDavid but you don’t get to stay on that line unless you’re lighting the lamp consistently because the club’s fortunes are absolutely 100% tied to that line producing right now.

    Again, with these two players, I come back to the NE Patriots. They are ruthless when it comes to managing their cap. If you don’t produce, you’re gone. It’s a very tough mindset but the results speak for themselves. There are players: Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Welker, etc. that were huge parts of that team and Belichik dealt all of them early not late.

    My issue with betting on players to rebound? That’s what this club has always done and it has not served them well. Spot the players that are trending. That will lead you to keeping Curtis Glencross over Robert Nilsson.

  105. PhrankLee says:

    LT the two spots you fretted about all year so far are rearing their ugly heads.

    RW depth and 2G

    How could a team possibly trade Eberle with the current depth and injury on RW?

    Happy to see JJ get into a game.

  106. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Are you sure? You might want to look at the Washington Capitals.

    i think the Niskannen deal worked out for them. Just like the Sekera deal worked out for us. But you know those are the outliers. Right? The vast majority of high-priced signings end in tears.

  107. Oddspell says:

    Bag of Pucks: True, if you see Maroon’s trend line as a one and done. What if he’s an emerging ‘Lucic in his prime’ with 3 stellar seasons ahead of him?

    But you’re right, he could be incredibly attractive on the trade market. Parakyo for Maroon? I’d do that deal and I LOVE Patty as a player.

    Love Maroon, but he shot >20% last year and almost 17% this year. Pretty safe to say that his 30 goal pace is probably an outlier.

    That said, he’s about 10 games off of matching his career high shot total at this pace. Even if Patty regresses, I’m guessing he’s a better player for the Oilers than he ever was for the Ducks.

  108. Melman says:

    Woodguy,

    I had the same thought. The wrinkle here might be Hendricks – as in if/once Hendy gets dealt then Anton will come back and take that spot giving you a 4th made up of Lander, JJ, Letestu & Sleppy (or Kassian with Sleppy on the 3rd).

    If “we” think that Hendy, as has be talked about, will be desired as a deadline pickup b/c experience, etc. for the playoffs – do not those same reasons make the club want to hang onto him? Perhaps Hendy is part of the package solve the backup goaltending. If Chia was just planning on sending Gus down and bringing up LB why would he not have done that today along with the JJ/Lander switch? Wouldn’t having LB here getting NHL practice time and settling in is more valuable than the extra couple games he’ll pick up in the AHL, or is he better off playing down there until he’s actually going to get a start here in order to stay sharp. I seem to have more questions than i thought i did

  109. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne: If you look at the scoring leaders, you don’t see unrestricted free agents. You see young players and superstars. You can’t get the superstars so you have to find the hidden gems. Guys like Cam Atkinson or Panarin.

    Cam Atkinson is exactly 1 year younger than Milan Lucic.

    Lucic has outscored Atkinson in each of the last 5 NHL seasons.

    Atkinson is currently sporting a shooting percentage 5% higer than his career average.

    Agree with you on Panarin. That was a good bet by Chicago.

  110. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    True, if you see Maroon’s trend line as a one and done. What if he’s an emerging ‘Lucic in his prime’ with 3 stellar seasons ahead of him?

    Maroon is 45 days older than Lucic.

    Both are past the prime ages of 21-26.

    I like Maroon, just hope Chia doesn’t give out his standard “too much, too long” contract.

  111. JDï™ says:

    Hands up, everyone who predicted that Gagner would be producing like this in Columbus. Anyone? Uh huh.

    How about anyone who thought the BJs would be at the top of the league? No?

    I guess that makes the job of picking next year’s Gagner a damned bit harder now, don’t it?

  112. Chachi says:

    JDï™:
    Hands up, everyone who predicted that Gagner would be producing like this in Columbus. Anyone? Uh huh.

    How about anyone who thought the BJs would be at the top of the league? No?

    I guess that makes the job of picking next year’s Gagner a damned bit harder now, don’t it?

    I’m gonna leave this right here: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=163405

  113. JDï™ says:

    Chachi,

    I see that he’s up to 144 lbs now.

    Might be a good bet, yes. Should I mark you down for a 25 G, 30A prediction?

  114. Chachi says:

    JDï™:
    Chachi,

    I see that he’s up to 144 lbs now.

    Might be a good bet, yes. Should I mark you down for a 25 G, 30A prediction?

    In the KHL? Sure why not?

  115. JDï™ says:

    Chachi,

    Next season, in the NHL.

  116. Chachi says:

    JDï™:
    Chachi,

    Next season, in the NHL.

    Well obviously not. Don’t think Gagner will hit 25G 30A either.

  117. JDï™ says:

    So did Chia get Gus waived to facilitate a trade for another BUG who was also in the minors? And did Anaheim scoop him on that deal?

  118. JDï™ says:

    Chachi,

    39 games, 14G, 16A for Sammy. It’s not unpossible.

  119. Revolved says:

    Can anyone explain to me why Mark Fayne is in the AHL while Gryba is playing? Would Gryba get taken off waivers?

  120. Bag of Pucks says:

    JDï™:
    Hands up, everyone who predicted that Gagner would be producing like this in Columbus. Anyone? Uh huh.

    How about anyone who thought the BJs would be at the top of the league? No?

    I guess that makes the job of picking next year’s Gagner a damned bit harder now, don’t it?

    It’s especially hard if you handcuff your roster with untradeable contracts.

    One of the ways the Patriots skew the odds in their favour is by maximizing their odds of hitting more than one of their ‘good bets.’

    They don’t replace a Welker with the highest price slot receiver in free agency. They bring in numerous young players like a Hogan, Amendola, Bennett, Floyd which ensures that A) they have numerous chances to hit a home run & B) should they not hit any dingers with any of these players individually, they’ve spread out the cap in a fashion that enables them to achieve production by committee.

    The Oilers’ historic flaw in terms of asset management is in thinking they need to trade an Eberle or Nuge for a $6 mil type player that will produce what those players were supposed to deliver. This is why they hold onto players like Schultz, Gagner and Yakupov forever, because the market never offers what their perceived internal value is.

    In short, you could theoretically lose Eberle and Nuge’s $12mil in cap hit and fill 3 roster holes at $4mil each or 4 players at $3 mil each to really maximize your odds, provided you’ve done your due diligence and effectively identified players about to trend upward.

    Pittsburgh, SJ, CBJ. What is the common thread? Deep, deep rosters with cap efficient contracts throughout. Core doesn’t mean 6 guys on big contracts anymore. It means 3 true elite difference makers and then a crap ton of value contracts everywhere else.

    Dead money. It’s the enemy of Cup contention.

  121. Chachi says:

    JDï™,

    True, not unpossible at all. Good for him, I guess.

  122. Soup Fascist says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    EIGHT straight losses on Tuesdays now.

    EIGHT in a row.

    EIGHT.

    I am thinking it’s because the silicone chip inside their heads get switched to “overload” …. but I could be a bit off.

    Or maybe it is the God Awful “Creed Tuesday” down at LT’s other hangout. Could Lowetide declare a unilateral cease and desist order at TSN 1260?

  123. Bruce Wayne says:

    Bag of Pucks: It’s especially hard if you handcuff your roster with untradeable contracts.

    One of the ways the Patriots skew the odds in their favour is by maximizing their odds of hitting more than one of their ‘good bets.’

    They don’t replace a Welker with the highest price slot receiver in free agency. They bring in numerous young players like a Hogan, Amendola, Bennett, Floyd which ensures that A) they have numerous chances to hit a home run& B) should they not hit any dingers with any of these players individually, they’ve spread out the cap in a fashion that enables them to achieve production by committee.

    The Oilers’ historic flaw in terms of asset management is in thinking they need to trade an Eberle or Nuge for a $6 mil type player that will produce what those players were supposed to deliver. This is why they hold onto players like Schultz, Gagner and Yakupov forever, because the market never offers what their perceived internal value is.

    In short, you could theoretically lose Eberle and Nuge’s $12mil in cap hit and fill 3 roster holes at $4mil each or 4 players at $3 mil each to really maximize your odds, provided you’ve done your due diligence and effectively identified players about to trend upward.

    Pittsburgh, SJ, CBJ. What is the common thread? Deep, deep rosters with cap efficient contracts throughout. Core doesn’t mean 6 guys on big contracts anymore. It means 3 true elite difference makers and then a crap ton of value contracts everywhere else.

    Dead money. It’s the enemy of Cup contention.

    Your analogy with the Patriots is seriously strained.

    First, while I agree with the principle of trading a player a year too early rather than too late, the poster boy for this principle is your hero, Milan Lucic, who should never have been signed in the first place, and is a major drag on this team, for this year, and forever.

    Second, the specific example of the Patriots works because in football, and for the Patriots specifically, the system drives the success of the players, not the other way around. Do the Oilers have this kind of system?

    Third, your examples of the Penguins, Columbus, and SJ, is hilarious. SJ just signed Brett Burns for 8 million dollars from now until eternity. That is the opposite of the Patriot way. Marleau is dead money on the cap this year. Michael Boedker is a 4 million dollar failed example of exactlly what you are talking about. Columbus has an overpaid Hartnell and is succeeding because of great drafting coming to fruition at the same time.

  124. bendelson says:

    Soup Fascist: Or maybe it is the God Awful “Creed Tuesday” down at LT’s other hangout. Could Lowetide declare a unilateral cease and desist order at TSN 1260?

    That’s a fine idea regardless of the Oilers win/loss record on Tuesdays…

  125. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce Wayne: Your analogy with the Patriots is seriously strained.

    First, while I agree with the principle of trading a player a year too early rather than too late, the poster boy for this principle is your hero, Milan Lucic, whoshould never have been signed in the first place, and is a major drag on this team, for this year, and forever.

    Second, the specific example of the Patriots works because in football, and for the Patriots specifically, the system drives the success of the players, not the other way around.Do the Oilers have this kind of system?

    Third, your examples of the Penguins, Columbus, and SJ, is hilarious.SJ just signed Brett Burns for 8 million dollars from now until eternity.That is the opposite of the Patriot way.Marleau is dead money on the cap this year.Michael Boedker is a 4 million dollar failed example of exactlly what you are talking about.Columbus has an overpaid Hartnell and is succeeding because of great drafting coming to fruition at the same time.

    i think the key reason you’re interested in diminishing this thought experiment is because you don’t have any better ideas than Chiarelli.

    If that’s not the case, then take up the challenge. What exactly would you do with Nuge and Eberle this offseason?

    Here’s your chance to prove you’re smarter than Chiarelli by illuminating a better path to success BEFORE his moves that you’ll inevitably criticize after the fact.

    If my approach sucks, what is the right way to deal with those two contracts specifically?

    Btw, what’s seriously strained is your never-ending obsession with making everything about the Hall trade. This Patriots comparison has gone on for a few posts. Your Hall obsession? It’s reaching John Hinckley Jr. / Jodie Foster level proportions.

    I think Batman will actually come to grips with the death of his parents before you let the Hall trade go.

  126. JDï™ says:


    Edmonton Oilers Verified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers

    #Oilers recall Laurent Brossoit from @Condors & assign Jonas Gustavsson. Brossoit: 9-8-3 record, 2.67 GAA, .908 save percentage, 2 shutouts.

  127. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    I agree with this. but am more optimistic on Lucic. I haven’t been impressed but I’m willing to allow more time for him to settle in.

    This is a much younger and much faster team than he has played on before and he’s not sitting behind (rather he’s beside) another locker room giant. And the Oilers are still figuring out their roster.

    I have good vibes about this homestead.

  128. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    In your world, do the Patriots not pay Tom Brady or Gronkowski big money (ala Brent Burns) or is that just not convenient to your argument?

    The true difference makers always get paid. No one is suggesting otherwise.

  129. Professor Q says:

    Finally. J. K. and Brossoit called up officially.

  130. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks: It’s especially hard if you handcuff your roster with untradeable contracts.

    One of the ways the Patriots skew the odds in their favour is by maximizing their odds of hitting more than one of their ‘good bets.’

    They don’t replace a Welker with the highest price slot receiver in free agency. They bring in numerous young players like a Hogan, Amendola, Bennett, Floyd which ensures that A) they have numerous chances to hit a home run& B) should they not hit any dingers with any of these players individually, they’ve spread out the cap in a fashion that enables them to achieve production by committee.

    The Oilers’ historic flaw in terms of asset management is in thinking they need to trade an Eberle or Nuge for a $6 mil type player that will produce what those players were supposed to deliver. This is why they hold onto players like Schultz, Gagner and Yakupov forever, because the market never offers what their perceived internal value is.

    In short, you could theoretically lose Eberle and Nuge’s $12mil in cap hit and fill 3 roster holes at $4mil each or 4 players at $3 mil each to really maximize your odds, provided you’ve done your due diligence and effectively identified players about to trend upward.

    Pittsburgh, SJ, CBJ. What is the common thread? Deep, deep rosters with cap efficient contracts throughout. Core doesn’t mean 6 guys on big contracts anymore. It means 3 true elite difference makers and then a crap ton of value contracts everywhere else.

    Dead money. It’s the enemy of Cup contention.

    Not to make a whole big thing here, but your strategy appears to be trade Eberle and RNH for younger cheaper players with upside. That’s fine. So who would you trade them for? And please don’t mention free agency because we know free agency in the NHL doesn’t solve problems. Also I’m not super familiar with the NFL, but I certainly know contracts and cap space and free agency are not comparable in the NHL to the MLB and NBA.

  131. Timeisnow says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Sad thought for today. If Tambi had simply drafted Larsson over RNH, 90% of what ails this roster today is likely moot.

    Ha, would like to think that but I’m thinking there’s a very good chance his development would be botched. We are talking about Tambi and Lowe

  132. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965: Not to make a whole big thing here, but your strategy appears to be trade Eberle and RNH for younger cheaper players with upside.That’s fine.So who would you trade them for? And please don’t mention free agency because we know free agency in the NHL doesn’t solve problems.Also I’m not super familiar with the NFL, but I certainly know contracts and cap space and free agency are not comparable in the NHL to the MLB and NBA.

    When I kicked off this topic, I provided my proposed approach in terms of how/where/when, and provided some examples of the young players I would target. Take a look up the thread. But that’s just off the top of my head, because you know…I’m not paid to do this.

    This may come as a surprise but I don’t have an extended staff of analysts, capologists, scouts, etc. to provide me with mounds of data to vet potential player acquisition targets. Chiarelli gets paid millions of dollars to manage that process and given the likes of Benning. Caggiula, Maroon, Russell, etc. I think he’s doing excellent work in that regard.

    For that reason, I would very much like him to clear out his dead money, as he’s shown a talent for making the most of low cost bullets.

    Not only do I think he would get far better returns out of the approach I’m endorsing than I, I suspect it’s the path he’ll pursue and I look forward to watching how it plays out.

  133. Bag of Pucks says:

    As an aside that may help to clarify my take on most of these matters, dedicated critics of Peter Chiarelli kind of remind me of Nickelback haters.

    It’s the easiest thing in the world to join these herds that are legion on the interwebs and suggest you could do better.

    It’s another thing entirely to actually do it.

    Now, you can subjectively not like Nickelback. It’s a free world.

    But, in all but the rarest instances, what you likely cannot do is better their job performance. These are professional caliber musicians that have figured out how to sell millions of records and sell out hundreds of concert dates. And hobby musicians who’s sole contribution to the historical music canon is that 3 chord acoustic cover they posted to youtube, have the hubris to suggest they can do better.

    In short, you don’t have to like someone to respect what they do and what they’ve achieved.

    Hating is not a talent. This doesn’t get emphasized enough in our modern society imo.

  134. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy: Well done.

    Hey WoodGuy, I recently started following you on twitter (great follow for anyone here who isn’t following him). I’ve seen you tweet a fair bit about having speed and skill on all 4 lines.

    With keeping that in mind, what do you think of a fourth line along the lines of Caggiula-Khaira-Slepy. Some size, speed, skill, and Khaira may be an improvement over Caggiula in the dot. I feel this is a line that could provide energy and offense, and would be a tough match up for teams with less depth.

  135. GMB3 says:

    Bag of Pucks: When I kicked off this topic, I provided my proposed approach in terms of how/where/when, and provided some examples of the young players I would target. Take a look up the thread. But that’s just off the top of my head, because you know…I’m not paid to do this.

    This may come as a surprise but I don’t have an extended staff of analysts, capologists, scouts, etc. to provide me with mounds of data to vet potential player acquisition targets. Chiarelli gets paid millions of dollars to manage that process and given the likes of Benning. Caggiula, Maroon, Russell, etc. I think he’s doing excellent work in that regard.

    For that reason, I would very much like him to clear out his dead money, as he’s shown a talent for making the most of low cost bullets.

    Not only do I think he would get far better returns out of the approach I’m endorsing than I, I suspect it’s the path he’ll pursue and I look forward to watching how it plays out.

    I feel like acquiring low cost bullets can be a fair bit of luck and IMO the low cost bullets who exceed expectations like Patty Maroon are moves that he should obviously emulate, but when trading the 6 million dollar guys there is a lot more pressure for that move to pay off so more risk. If Maroon was just an average depth player for us, that trade is still a good move. There is a much higher chance that trading RNH and Ebs backfires and finding low-cost bullets is easier said than done.

  136. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    As an aside that may help to clarify my take on most of these matters, dedicated critics of Peter Chiarelli kind of remind me of Nickelback haters.

    It’s the easiest thing in the world to join these herds that are legion on the interwebs and suggest you could do better.

    It’s another thing entirely to actually do it.

    Now, you can subjectively not like Nickelback. It’s a free world.

    But, in all but the rarest instances, what you likely cannot do is better their job performance. These are professional caliber musicians that have figured out how to sell millions of records and sell out hundreds of concert dates. And hobby musicians who’s sole contribution to the historical music canon is that 3 chord acoustic cover they posted to youtube, have the hubris to suggest they can do better.

    In short, you don’t have to like someone to respect what they do and what they’ve achieved.

    Hating is not a talent. This doesn’t get emphasized enough in our modern society imo.

    If you’re referring to me you have grossly misrepresentsented my position. I’m not a hater and I never once mentioned Chia. I simply think it’s flawed logic to think you can make up for their production with free agents. You can take a gamble and trade RNH or Eberle for someone like Lindholm, but you’re certainly not covering the downside of that bet with free agents.

  137. GMB3 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Sad thought for today. If Tambi had simply drafted Larsson over RNH, 90% of what ails this roster today is likely moot.

    is Adam Larsson as good defensively if he isn’t learning from Scott Stevens in NJ though..?

  138. Professor Q says:

    GMB3,

    Maybe we’d have kept Huddy?

  139. classict says:

    Bag of Pucks: True, if you see Maroon’s trend line as a one and done. What if he’s an emerging ‘Lucic in his prime’ with 3 stellar seasons ahead of him?

    But you’re right, he could be incredibly attractive on the trade market. Parakyo for Maroon? I’d do that deal and I LOVE Patty as a player.

    Yes it would be very easy to trade away Oilers players if every other GM was dumb enough to make trades like this. I think if Chia tried to bring up Maroon for Parayko the phone call wouldn’t last 10 seconds.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965: If you’re referring to me you have grossly misrepresentsented my position. I’m not a hater and I never once mentioned Chia.I simply think it’s flawed logic to think you can make up for their production with free agents.You can take a gamble and trade RNH or Eberle for someone like Lindholm, but you’re certainly not covering the downside of that bet with free agents.

    I’m not directly referring to anyone. Hence why no names. Just providing background/context on my rules of engagement.

    Indirectly, it could apply to anyone who self identifies as a dedicated critic/hater of Chiarelli’s job performance.

  141. Bag of Pucks says:

    GMB3: is Adam Larsson as good defensively if he isn’t learning from Scott Stevens in NJ though..?

    We’ll never know.

  142. Bag of Puck says:

    GMB3…but when trading the 6 million dollar guys there is a lot more pressure for that move to pay off so more risk… There is a much higher chance that trading RNH and Ebs backfires and finding low-cost bullets is easier said than done.

    You think this because you’re equating the cost of the player’s salary with the value of the player. In fact, the player’s value is their production output. And based on current levels of production, the value is not nearly as high as their cap hit (ie they’re cap inefficient).

    This is the kind of logic that drives holding onto Yak and Schultz too long: confusing perceived value with actual market value.

    The greater risk is doing nothing and potentially ending up with an untradeable contract in return for modest production.

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