THE VALUE OF A FINN IN BAKERSFIELD

The Bakersfield Condors play host to the Stockton Heat tonight, it is a home game for the Oilers’ farm team. Oilers fans have renewed interest in the minor league club, as first-round pick Jesse Puljujarvi prepares to play his second AHL game tonight.

The Condors are not an especially strong team, but could also make the playoffs with a good finish. Trying to figure out the AHL standings (not all teams play the same number of games) is a fool’s folly unless you have a great deal of experience, and of course our interest in the team does not extend to playoff chances.

One area I find very important is points-per-60, or in the case of the AHL, estimated points per 60. Here is the latest from Prospect-Stats in estimated points per 60.

FORWARDS, 2016-17 EST POINTS PER 60 (EVENS)

  • The numbers for men like Anton Lander, Taylor Beck and Ryan Hamilton aren’t terribly important, we know they can post offense at this level. We are worrying about the prospects.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi had a good first game, as indicated here. Now, we should expect this to continue, but his boxcars should also include power-play numbers, so he might not score at 3.00+ for the entire time in the minors.
  • Anton Slepyshev and Jujhar Khaira are both in the majors tonight, and their minor league even-strength offense suggests they earned the jobs on merit.
  • The progression for Khaira is exactly what we want to see from the minors, improvements year over year and the offense showing growth. Khaira is not projected to be a top 6F, but he has to show some offense in the AHL in order for us to project him onto a secondary NHL role. He has shown it.
  • Mitchell Moroz is the next prospect of note, his 1.16/60 is about what we might expect for him—his journey to the NHL will not be on a skill line.
  • Any prospect in the 1.00-1.40 area who brings an offensive reputation of any sort—Greg Chase, Kyle Platzer, Patrick Russell—is not progressing in a way we associate with future NHL players.
  • Joey Laleggia is listed as a forward on my list, but much of his season has been on defense. Impossible to properly dissect his season.

DEFENSE, 2016-17 EST POINTS PER 60 (EVENS)

  • Stats via Prospect-Stats.
  • Mark Fayne appears to be having a good time.
  • Matt Benning spent two games in the AHL, but even in a short sample size he showed something.
  • David Musil is having his best offensive season. Doesn’t mean a thing. There isn’t much we can take from 5×5 D scoring if the player is a defensive type. Luck is the likeliest explanation of the Musil surge, and that is unfair but true.
  • Jordan Oesterle probably runs this number past 1.00/60 by the end of the year. I hope he makes it.
  • Griffin Reinhart and Dillon Simpson, like Musil, are not likely to be substantial contributors at 5×5 offense during their respective careers.

I talk about all these kids, and cheer for them. The cold hard truth is that very few of them will skate in an NHL game, and even fewer will contribute to wins. The Finn is the one to watch, from tonight until the moment he leaves town.

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97 Responses to "THE VALUE OF A FINN IN BAKERSFIELD"

  1. mujidog says:

    I hope Chia trades Griffin Reinhart soon so that I don’t need to hear about him anymore because hearing/reading his name makes me a little angry and sad (and to be clear, no fault to him).

  2. N64 says:

    mujidog:
    I hope Chia trades Griffin Reinhart soon so that I don’t need to hear about him anymore because hearing/reading his name makes me a little angry and sad (and to be clear, no fault to him).

    Fans are generally happiest ignoring the back burner. Otherwise they are trading every D that doesn’t force their way in without slow cooking, Davey and most D.

  3. spoiler says:

    That’s an interesting number for Betker, although at 15 games what do we really know for sure? Still, arrows… ti-i-i-nnyyy arrows…

  4. Lowetide says:

    One thing about playoffs, is that these AHL guys come in handy if the run goes deep. Not suggesting it will happen this year, but a guy like Reinhart has value even if we don’t see him in the NHL. I have been waiting to write a post, basically ‘Reinhart ready to help but cap penalty punishes’ but I have not seen or heard evidence suggesting he is standing out from the defensive crowd in Bakersfield.

  5. N64 says:

    Lowetide:
    One thing about playoffs, is that these AHL guys come in handy if the run goes deep. Not suggesting it will happen this year, but a guy like Reinhart has value even if we don’t see him in the NHL. I have been waiting to write a post, basically ‘Reinhart ready to help but cap penalty punishes’ but I have not seen or heard evidence suggesting he is standing out from the defensive crowd in Bakersfield.

    Next fall he emerges from the pot nicely cooked or half-baked and onto the waiver wire.

  6. fifthcartel says:

    David Staples ‏@dstaples 1h1 hour ago
    Puljujarvi not on Condors’ top line with Anton Lander.

    Sheesh!

    Terry JonesVerified account
    ‏@sunterryjones
    @dstaples @KurtLeavins Of course he’s not on the first line. Make him earn it.

    Not putting Puljujarvi with Lander seems strange, but you’d have to think Puljujarvi plays huge minutes regardless of his line. Making him ‘earn it’ in the AHL is pointless in a development league, or at least I’d hope the Oilers don’t think like this.

  7. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    David Staples ‏@dstaples1h1 hour ago
    Puljujarvi not on Condors’ top line with Anton Lander.

    Sheesh!

    Terry JonesVerified account
    ‏@sunterryjones
    @dstaples @KurtLeavins Of course he’s not on the first line. Make him earn it.

    Not putting Puljujarvi with Lander seems strange, but you’d have to think Puljujarvi plays huge minutes regardless of his line. Making him ‘earn it’ in the AHL is pointless in a development league, or at least I’d hope the Oilers don’t think like this.

    Lines change about every 10 minutes, and I am pretty sure Puljujarvi is going to get a push. There is no controversy here.

  8. frjohnk says:

    anybody watching this game tonight and gotta link?

  9. bendelson says:

    N64: Next fall he emerges from the pot nicely cooked or half-baked and onto the waiver wire.

    Sous vide?

  10. Eastern Oil says:

    Lowetide: Lines change about every 10 minutes, and I am pretty sure Puljujarvi is going to geta push. There is no controversy here.

    But the pitch forks I bought cannot be returned! I discovered that after we all met on Woodguys front lawn that one time due to that one thing he said.

  11. Bruce Wayne says:

    I mentioned this the last time estimated time-on-ice came up but didn’t get a chance to clarify. We should be skeptical of estimated times-on-ice because they select on the dependent variable.

    Other points, from the last thread.

    Steviezie is my spirit brother.

    For all those who think I am upset because all of my predictions have come wrong, all I will say is that I made no claims concerning the team. I said that Adam Larsson is not a first pairing defenseman and that Milan Lucic would be a bad signing.

    To those points, is there a single person, anywhere in the world, who thinks that either Larsson or Lucic has played up to their offseason hype?

    Now, I happen to think that Larsson will be better, but so far he is nowhere near the player we were sold in the summer. How is this evidence that I was wrong? Indeed, every single thing that has happened has confirmed the critics of the trade and the signing. It is bizarro world when things turn out exactly as you say, and then people turn around and shout “see!”

    It could not be more obvious that the Oilers are succeeding in spite of trading Taylor Hall and signing Milan Lucic.

  12. Bruce Wayne says:

    NYoil’s post on the Hall–Kassian relationship are interesting. If he is right, this sets up a subtext for the trade, not that Hall is a bad teammate, but rather that the specific members of the team had prior history.

    Now consider that Maroon has named Kassian as his best friend on the team.

    I think it is plausible that Chiarelli chose them over Hall, and intentionally traded him. This would explain the horrific return, but it doesn’t justify the trade.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Eastern Oil: But the pitch forks I bought cannot be returned! I discovered that after we all met on Woodguys front lawn that one time due to that one thing he said.

    I am saving my pitch forks for the next villain. Who could it be?

  14. Dominoiler says:

    Larsson is a top 4 RD, so it can’t just be about hall and lucic.. better D depth is significant, especially since that was last years team’s greatest weakness.. not to say that you are wrong, but in the results Larsson moves the needle more than your non-mention..

    For the record, i expected larsson to be a better puck mover.. maybe it develops, but we’ll see..

  15. OF17 says:

    Eastern Oil: But the pitch forks I bought cannot be returned! I discovered that after we all met on Woodguys front lawn that one time due to that one thing he said.

    That one time? Pffffft. We’ve practically colonized it.

  16. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Lines change about every 10 minutes, and I am pretty sure Puljujarvi is going to geta push. There is no controversy here.

    What about the Oilers so called development plans for thier young players suggest we should give them the benefit of the doubt?

    Other than Davidson and JK, almost every other young prospect has made it in spite of the Oilers management, not because of them.

    Oh yeah, and yeah but….

  17. treevojo says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    I mentioned this the last time estimated time-on-ice came up but didn’t get a chance to clarify.We should be skeptical of estimated times-on-ice because they select on the dependent variable.

    Other points, from the last thread.

    Steviezie is my spirit brother.

    For all those who think I am upset because all of my predictions have come wrong, all I will say is that I made no claims concerning the team.I said that Adam Larsson is not a first pairing defenseman and that Milan Lucic would be a bad signing.

    To those points, is there a single person, anywhere in the world, who thinks that either Larsson or Lucic has played up to their offseason hype?

    Now, I happen to think that Larsson will be better, but so far he is nowhere near the player we were sold in the summer.How is this evidence that I was wrong?Indeed, every single thing that hashappened has confirmed the critics of the trade and the signing.It is bizarro world when things turn out exactly as you say, and then people turn around and shout “see!”

    It could not be more obvious that the Oilers are succeeding in spite of trading Taylor Hall and signing Milan Lucic.

    Does that make Steviezie a circus boy that is partial to tights?

  18. stevezie says:

    Bruce Wayne: Steviezie is my spirit brother.

    Word up, homie.

    Also, I’ve been saying for months that Hall’s personality was big factor in both his availability and his market value.

    I don’t like to make a big deal of it, because i don’t want to make it seem like I’m blaming hall or saying chia was right. or that Hall is right. I don’t know enough to know. But i sure would bet Hall isn’t personally beloved in hockey circles.

    I don’t think it’s wise to prioritize this stuff over hockey factors.

  19. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69: What about the Oilers so called development plans for thier young players suggest we should give them the benefit of the doubt?

    Other than Davidson and JK, almost every other young prospect has made it in spite of the Oilers management, not because of them.

    Oh yeah, and yeah but….

    Davidson, Pitlick, Slepyshev, Khaira, since McLellan arrived the minor leaguers seem to be getting a real chance. Puljujarvi is on the Currie line, and if that doesn’t work then they need to try something else. Taylor Beck’s AHL success means nothing, the Oilers know this.

  20. GMB3 says:

    Anyone with a link to watch the bako game?

  21. frjohnk says:

    Bruce Wayne: It could not be more obvious that the Oilers are succeeding in spite of trading Taylor Hall and signing Milan Lucic.

    I agree with you quite a bit on here.

    Yes, Chia had the Korpse experiment blow up in his face, the Reinhart trade looks worse daily, Hall vs Larsson trade was an overpay, Lucic signing ( how bad will it be?) and Gus is junk,

    But looking at this whole situation from a different angle by taking away the Hall/Larsson trade and Lucic signing, Chia has done a good to very good job in taking this team out of the basement.

    Traded for and then signed a good goalie;Talbot. We had shit goaltending before.

    Added depth in the form of actual NHL players. Maroon, Kassian, Letestu, Sekera, Russell, Benning, Gryba. We had a bunch of AHL players on D and forward in our depth positions.

    While Davidson may have had an inside supporter, we had 8 Dmen last fall and Davidson could have been put on waivers, but Chia did not want to risk it. Resigning Pitlick also turned out well. Chia should get credit for these two.

    He added size, we have 6 actual Dmen every night, we are closer to balance and if Hendricks is the only player playing with Oilers that should be in the AHL, then thats not too bad.

    Could this team be better if Chia would have gone a different direction. Yes, it could, but it could also be worse. No GM bats 100% in every deal.

    Im not writing this post to defend Chia ( I’m actually wary of him if he swings for the fence) but writing this post because at some point we need to let go of the past and look to the future. And its bright. There are alot of great pieces here that will only get better.

    We got McDavid, and as crazy coach says, we need to enjoy every second he is an Oiler because one day he wont be, and if you didnt enjoy every second, you have missed out. This guy is a treasure ( McDavid, CC isnt too shabby either :)) Enjoy watching him.

    We have Draisaitl, how good is he and how good will he get? Top 20 player in the league in a couple years is not a stretch. Maybe higher and sooner. Klefbom at times is pushing the river from the backend. With these 3 are very good complimentary players in EBERLE, Sekera, Nuge, Larsson and company.

    Just cheer for the Oilers. They are worth cheering for.

  22. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I am saving my pitch forks for the next villain. Who could it be?

    Woodguy.

    He is our “Rowdy” Roddy Piper

  23. stevezie says:

    treevojo: Does that make Steviezie a circus boy that is partial to tights?

    Pure coincidence.

  24. Younger Oil says:

    Just realized that Calgary for their second game in a row gets a team that was in Edmonton the night before.

    They get to face the backup goalie both times.

    Too lazy to look it up, but I wonder if the Oilers get equal treatment when it comes to that. It can make a potential 2-4 point swing between the two teams for every time it happens, which is huge.

    I guess Calgary comes north tomorrow, but still seems a bit weird.

  25. DaveWatchesHockey says:

    Hall scores. Attaboy.

    Devils lead 2-0

    Dave

  26. Suntory Hanzo says:

    onhockey.tv

    feed is up already with countdown to puck drop. 13 minutes. Commentators talking standings

  27. treevojo says:

    I am liking Taylor Hall way more tonight.

    Fuck Calgary.

  28. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Tonight only we should all be united behind Hall. Fuck the Flames. Fuck those guys.

  29. treevojo says:

    stevezie,

    Hilarious

  30. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Please don’t leap to a conclusion like that from my comment.

    P.s. am watching DeAngelo play tonight here in Tucson. I know a few wanted Chia to grab him.

  31. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Slow night tonight on here!

    60 seconds on the countdown!

  32. Todd Macallan says:

    Gonch Toss Friday, broken pane from hit on Puju. Hockey night in Bakersfield, grab your whiskey!

  33. godot10 says:

    My 2 cents on Hall-Kassian:

    Hall DIDN’t turtle. Kassian clocked him with a left to the face knocking Hall off balance, and there was no way Hall was going to try to recover after having lost his balance. At that point he was in a vulnerable position and nothing good would be the result.

    So it was an eye for an eye, an elbow/(buttend)? for a wicked left hand to the noggin from Kassian.

    It was a one punch fight…which is typical for a heavyweight fighter vs. a skilled non-fighter.

    Hall isn’t Messier or Orr when it comes to fighting. He is lousy at it.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Puljujarvi is having a good game early.

  35. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Gonch Toss Friday, broken pane from hit on Puju. Hockey night in Bakersfield, grab your whiskey!

    LOL. Sounds not unlike this Tucson crowd. I think hockey works here. Downtown arena not far from the university helps. That is where Glendale has it all wrong with the Coyotes.

  36. Todd Macallan says:

    Lowetide:
    Puljujarvi is having a good game early.

    He is everywhere out there, but in a good way. 2nd youngest player in AHL history, neat.

  37. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Todd Macallan: He is everywhere out there, but in a good way. 2nd youngest player in AHL history, neat.

    Is that right? wow.

  38. Todd Macallan says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Announcers just mentioned it actually. 11 days older than Kylington, the youngest ever.

    Continues to be all over the ice, what an absolute joy to watch.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Patrick Russell with a SH breakaway, far better speed than he showed in TC.

  40. gogliano says:

    This is the greatest intermission event for a hockey game I’ve seen. (Condors game)

  41. PunkInDrublic says:

    frjohnk: I agree with you quite a bit on here.

    Yes, Chia had the Korpse experiment blow up in his face, the Reinhart trade looks worse daily, Hall vs Larsson trade was an overpay, Lucic signing ( how bad will it be?) and Gus is junk,

    But looking at this whole situation from a different angle by taking away the Hall/Larsson trade and Lucic signing, Chia has done a good to very good job in taking this team out of the basement.

    Traded for and then signed a good goalie;Talbot.We had shit goaltending before.

    Added depth in the form of actual NHL players.Maroon, Kassian, Letestu, Sekera, Russell, Benning, Gryba.We had a bunch of AHL players on D and forward in our depth positions.

    While Davidson may have had an inside supporter, we had 8 Dmen last fall and Davidson could have been put on waivers, but Chia did not want to risk it.Resigning Pitlick also turned out well.Chia should get credit for these two.

    He added size, we have 6 actual Dmen every night, we are closer to balance and if Hendricks is the only player playing with Oilers that should be in the AHL, then thats not too bad.

    Could this team be better if Chia would have gone a different direction.Yes, it could, but it could also be worse.No GM bats 100% in every deal.

    Im not writing this post to defend Chia ( I’m actually wary of him if he swings for the fence) but writing this post because at some point we need to let go of the past and look to the future.And its bright.There are alot of great pieces here that will only get better.

    We got McDavid, and as crazy coach says, we need to enjoy every second he is an Oiler because one day he wont be, and if you didnt enjoy every second, you have missed out.This guy is a treasure ( McDavid, CC isnt too shabby either :)) Enjoy watching him.

    We have Draisaitl, how good is he and how good will he get? Top 20 player in the league in a couple years is not a stretch.Maybe higher and sooner.Klefbom at times is pushing the river from the backend.With these 3 are very good complimentary players in EBERLE, Sekera, Nuge, Larsson and company.

    Just cheer for the Oilers.They are worth cheering for.

    A glass half full of your finest, thank you.

    Cheers.

  42. N64 says:

    PunkInDrublic: A glass half full of your finest, thank you.

    Cheers.

    A dedicated oil fan would order a glass half empty.

  43. kinger_OIL says:

    – I’m getting a kick out of some of the revionsit backtraking re: Hall.

    – Seems rich to state the trade was awful, but the team was going to be a lot better (despite?) anyways

    Basically 3 camps on trade:
    1) Chia is sh%t, the sky is falling
    2) We had to get better on RHD, this moves all the other D down the ladder. Hurts short term maybe
    3) 1+2 combo

  44. spoiler says:

    The Devs better not blow this…

  45. kooler says:

    Did folks throw diapers out on the ice in bakersfield?

    By the way….nice goal Lander.

  46. Chachi says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Bruce Wayne,

    Please don’t leap to a conclusion like that from my comment.

    He can’t help if that’s where he landed on his “Jump to Conclusions Mat”

  47. Lowetide says:

    Fayne with a major defensive play for Bakersfield who are up 1-0 in the second on a Lander goal.

  48. spoiler says:

    Chachi: He can’t help if that’s where he landed on his “Jump to Conclusions Mat”

    Always thought he was more of a Magic 8 ball kinda guy.

  49. spoiler says:

    Twelve and a half seconds…

  50. spoiler says:

    Whew. Thank you, New Jersey, all is forgiven!

  51. tcho says:

    Hahaha! Suck it, Phlegms!

  52. Derek says:

    Man.

    NJ outplayed Calgary in the same fashion they got out played by the Oilers on the second night of a back to back. What the hell was that all about, they (Calgary) looked like ass!

  53. JDï™ says:

    tcho: Phlegms!

    I thought it was fLames. ?

  54. spoiler says:

    Derek,

    36 shots against by the Devs. Hopefully the Flames spend a whole 6 months in that leaky boat.

  55. spoiler says:

    Pujo sure likes to set up for that one-timer. Nice, Lander..

  56. spoiler says:

    I’m not sure about the whole chimp thing in Bakersfield. Planet of the Apes still scares me after all these years.

  57. frjohnk says:

    Flames lose

    Let’s make it two in a row tomorrow for them.

  58. Lowetide says:

    Nick Ellis needs more seasoning. Maybe a cooking bag, too.

  59. spoiler says:

    Ellis pretty shaky handling that one. Luckily there was no goal.

  60. --hudson-- says:

    spoiler: Always thought he was more of a Magic 8 ball kinda guy.

    I enjoy reading Bruce Wayne’s posts, please don’t make this a hostile forum for them.

  61. StixMalone says:

    godot10:
    My 2 cents on Hall-Kassian:

    Hall DIDN’t turtle.Kassian clocked him with a left to the face knocking Hall off balance, and there was no way Hall was going to try to recover after having lost his balance.At that point he was in a vulnerable position and nothing good would be the result.

    So it was an eye for an eye, an elbow/(buttend)? for a wicked left hand to the noggin from Kassian.

    It was a one punch fight…which is typical for a heavyweight fighter vs. a skilled non-fighter.

    Hall isn’t Messier or Orr when it comes to fighting. He is lousy at it.

    Yeah last time he fought someone he broke a knee or ankle. A lower body injury of some sort. He really can’t fight. That’s the real reason we traded him come to think…..

  62. spoiler says:

    1 point for Gryffindor!

  63. jm363561 says:

    Lowetide: Lines change about every 10 minutes, and I am pretty sure Puljujarvi is going to geta push. There is no controversy here.

    Lines changing every 10 minutes is an extremely appropriate developmental program for Blender Todd’s Oilers.

  64. StixMalone says:

    Flames lose tonight so tomorrow we better not pick them up. Kick em when they’re down! I want a regulation win please! Kassian can go crazy on Tkachuk as well. Connor hat trick, Talbot shut out, Eberle and Nuge score. My lord this sounds like a letter to Santa. I better stop……

  65. jm363561 says:

    –hudson–: I enjoy reading Bruce Wayne’s posts, please don’t make this a hostile forum for them.

    I agree entirely. You can debate the tone but the content is always worth reading. (We intellectuals have to stick together.)

  66. Gret99zky says:

    LOL.

    Anyone watching a feed with the cracked up cameraman with a busted viewfinder?

  67. Zelepukin says:

    Lander was made for the AHL.

  68. spoiler says:

    That was pretty Finnish.

  69. Gret99zky says:

    Puju with a beauty assist.

  70. Lowetide says:

    Puljujarvi with a great assist, real power drive by the big man.

  71. Gret99zky says:

    Wow. Griffin wearing Stan Weir’s face. Cool.

  72. stevezie says:

    kinger_OIL,

    There is nothing revisionist about this. I said this all summer long. If you really want me to, I’ll find the posts. Depending on work goes.

    So I reject all your camps like they were Crystal Lake. I said it this morning, I’ll say it now: most people who were critical of Chia still didn’t think the sky was falling.

    Here’s my take: If, instead of trading him for Larsson, Chiarelli had strapped Taylor Hall to the railroad tracks in front of a steaming load fresh Alberta Oil and found out for sure just how heartless, gutless, spineless, brainless and injury-prone Hall really was (or wasn’t!), even then the Oilers still would have improved.

    Taylor Hall is a great hockey player, but if you add up a full season of a sophomore Connor McDavid, a full season of a healthy Klefbom, a full season of an adjusted-to-Edmonton Sekera, a full season of an adjusted-to-starting-in-Edmonton Talbot, a hitting-his-stride-right-out-of-the-park Draisatl (underrated one), a DRAMATICALLY improved Nurse, and a full season of Patrick Maroon you more than cover the loss of Taylor Hall.

    Really think about how long Klefbom and McDavid were hurt, how bad Talbot was the first several months, how bad Nurse was. That Eberle Changing these things alone were going to get you close, and over the summer McDavid went from great to maybe the best player in the world. That’s going to be worth a lot.

    Plus, I’m not looking to deny Chia credit where it is due. Benning is a great signing! Maroon was a great trade! Talbo has been an all-star (in my mind)! Sekera is working out well! Even Lucic- who has not blown my socks off and is not on a good contract at all- is, in the context of this year, a lot better than replacement.

    So, again, even if Taylor Hall had been separated from the puck the “ol’snidely whiplash way”, I think the Oilers still would have improved.

    Getting Adam Larsson, a fine player who is much better than a wet sack of Hall-scented railroad mush, certainly elevates us a few spots even higher than that!

    And hey, if we had done something sane with the right side we’d be even better still!

    I won’t get into if we hadn’t traded Hall for Larsson because that’s not the point. We’ve moved on from debating the Hall trade to accepting that it has happened and debating whether it is the reason for “the turnaround”. (Progress!)

    I find it hilariously obvious that it is not, and was actually a negative factor. You find it hilariously obvious that it is, or was at least a positive factor.

    Yet, despite living in these wildly different realities, we both make our way in the world.

    Fascinating.

    P.S “Bad” as Eberle aas been this year, if he played at this pace last season it would have only made a six point difference. Nug missed almost thirty games last year too. I’ll grand Pouliot is significantly worse, but Letestu comes close to making that up.

    I still think this team sans Larsson easily clears last year’s point total.

    *I’m not saying Eberle has been “good” this year, just that while he hasn’t scored, it’s not like he’s been a totally useless hack.

  73. spoiler says:

    Lander smokes one past the keeper for a hatty.

  74. Gret99zky says:

    Hatrick for Lander!

  75. Lowetide says:

    Lander scores his third of the night.

  76. stevezie says:

    N64,

    This was pretty funny.

  77. Gret99zky says:

    Wait. You get your hat back in Bakersfield? Sweet.

  78. Picturesque says:

    Happy for Lander! He gets sent down and scores 3 in his first game back. People have said he’s a character guy and I can see it in getting this hatrick – not letting this demotion put him in a funk. Really hope this offense can translate in the big league when he returns.

  79. spoiler says:

    Well there’s nothing wrong with Pujo’s vision and passing.

  80. Derek says:

    spoiler:
    Well there’s nothing wrong with Pujo’s vision and passing.

    I didn’t realize just how young this guy was. Second youngest guy to play in the AHL? No wonder he struggles at times with the big club. That and not knowing the language.

  81. Chachi says:

    jm363561: I agree entirely. You can debate the tone but the content is always worth reading. (We intellectuals have to stick together.)

    I agree with this; where else can you get intellectual gems like, “Edmonton fans are the worst, and this season in particular they have reached a new level of ignorant.” Why in the world would anyone take that the wrong way?

  82. hunter1909 says:

    jm363561: (We intellectuals have to stick together.)

    I can see the scene: Intellectuals, standing shoulder to shoulder against the unwashed smartphone addicts.

    Chachi: “Edmonton fans are the worst, and this season in particular they have reached a new level of ignorant.”

    Non-intellectual Oiler fans, like Trump “Deplorables” consider this to be a badge of honour.

  83. hunter1909 says:

    stevezie:
    kinger_OIL,

    There is nothing revisionist about this. I said this all summer long. If you really want me to, I’ll find the posts. Depending on work goes.

    So I reject all your camps like they were Crystal Lake. I said it this morning, I’ll say it now: most people who were critical of Chia still didn’t think the sky was falling.

    Here’s my take: If, instead of trading him for Larsson, Chiarelli had strapped Taylor Hall to the railroad tracks in front of a steaming load fresh Alberta Oil and found out for sure just how heartless, gutless, spineless, brainless and injury-prone Hall really was (or wasn’t!), even then the Oilers still would have improved.

    Taylor Hall is a great hockey player, but if you add up a full season of a sophomore Connor McDavid, a full season of a healthy Klefbom, a full season of an adjusted-to-Edmonton Sekera, a full season of an adjusted-to-starting-in-Edmonton Talbot, a hitting-his-stride-right-out-of-the-park Draisatl (underrated one), a DRAMATICALLY improved Nurse, and a full season of Patrick Maroon you more than cover the loss of Taylor Hall.

    Really think about how long Klefbom and McDavid were hurt, how bad Talbot was the first several months, how bad Nurse was. That Eberle Changing these things alone were going to get you close, and over the summer McDavid went from great to maybe the best player in the world. That’s going to be worth a lot.

    Plus, I’m not looking to deny Chia credit where it is due. Benning is a great signing! Maroon was a great trade! Talbo has been an all-star (in my mind)! Sekera is working out well! Even Lucic- who has not blown my socks off and is not on a good contract at all- is, in the context of this year, a lot better than replacement.

    So, again, even if Taylor Hall had been separated from the puck the “ol’snidely whiplash way”, I think the Oilers still would have improved.

    Getting Adam Larsson, a fine player who is much better than a wet sack of Hall-scented railroad mush, certainly elevates us a few spots even higher than that!

    And hey, if we had done something sane with the right side we’d be even better still!

    I won’t get into if we hadn’t traded Hall for Larsson because that’s not the point. We’ve moved on from debating the Hall trade to accepting that it has happened and debating whether it is the reason for “the turnaround”. (Progress!)

    I find it hilariously obvious that it is not, and was actually a negative factor. You find it hilariously obvious that it is, or was at least a positive factor.

    Yet, despite living in these wildly different realities, we both make our way in the world.

    Fascinating.

    P.S “Bad” as Eberle aas been this year, if he played at this pace last season it would have only made a six point difference. Nug missed almost thirty games last year too. I’ll grand Pouliot is significantly worse, but Letestu comes close to making that up.

    I still think this team sans Larsson easily clears last year’s point total.

    *I’m not saying Eberle has been “good” this year, just that while he hasn’t scored, it’s not like he’s been a totally useless hack.

    In other words, no need to worry you with facts.

  84. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: Hall isn’t Messier or Orr when it comes to fighting. He is lousy at it.

    That’s one of the problems with the Taylor Hall Oilers. Pampered star players who thought fighting was beneath them.

    Larsson is a tough defenseman. Maroon is a tough winger. So is Lucic. Kassian is a psycho. Nurse, he’s already trending toward Bengal tiger status. Now compare these players to Patrick O’Sullivan, Nillsson, Gagner etc.

    Chiarelli’s turned this team into a kind of Murderer’s Row. Hall, in his way, was just trying to show them he belonged.

    It’s painfully obvious that Taylor Hall loves the Edmonton Oilers.

  85. stevezie says:

    hunter1909: In other words, no need to worry you with facts.

    Just because you don’t understand ’em, that don’t mean they’re not there.

    Hall and Larsson have the same number of career fights, by the way. Unless you count Larsson getting beat by Brett Ritchie without taking his gloves off, but then you should really count Hall getting decked last night so it’s even again.

    Also, fact-master, you mentioned Gagner, Neilson and O’Sullivan as examples of fight-fearing losers of the Hall era. Two of them never played a game with Hall, and Sam Gagner averaged a fight a season with the Oil.

    Let’s hope to God Connor takes his fighting prowess to the NHL with him (he was kicking that guy’s ass in junior before he punched the glass). I’d hate for you to say a few years from now that the problem with the McDavid Oilers were more stars unable to win a fight.

    But I like Nurse a lot more than POS. I’ll give you that.

    And I agree that Hall loved the Oilers. Always a shame to lose a guy willing to re-sign here.

  86. Melman says:

    hunter1909,

    You’re 100% right. Pampered star players who don’t fight are cancers and garbage. See: Malkin, OV, Jagr, Seguin, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos

    I have full respect for his repeatedly saying he loved the City and was pissed he got traded

  87. Georges says:

    stevezie,

    I’m going to try to counter your points on why “the turnaround” was inevitable. I’ve got nothing but respect for you, man. It’s late. I can’t sleep. Weird stuff happens.

    Taylor Hall is a great hockey player, but if you add up a full season of a sophomore Connor McDavid, a full season of a healthy Klefbom, a full season of an adjusted-to-Edmonton Sekera, a full season of an adjusted-to-starting-in-Edmonton Talbot, a hitting-his-stride-right-out-of-the-park Draisatl (underrated one), a DRAMATICALLY improved Nurse, and a full season of Patrick Maroon you more than cover the loss of Taylor Hall.

    1. Taylor Hall is a great hockey player.

    CMD’s Oilers record (with Hall) in his first season: 45 GP. 17-25-3. CMD and Hall are not good enough to lift 2015-16 Oilers out of basement much less get them to contend.

    2. A full season of a sophomore Connor McDavid.

    Let’s compare 1st year CMD to 2nd year CMD:

    5v5 on-ice GF60
    1st year 3.44
    2nd year 3.28

    5v5 on-ice GA60
    1st year 3.35
    2nd year 2.07

    5v4 on-ice GF60
    1st year 7.72
    2nd year 9.39

    Sophomore CMD’s improved 5v5 results are because of a lower GA60 and not, as you suggest, a higher GF60. Credit the revamped defense. While CMD “went from great to maybe the best player in the world” his P/GP went from 1.07 to 1.14. This means he was already very close to being the best player in the world last year.

    Sophomore CMD does have a much better GF60 rate at 5v4. A big difference from this year to last on the first unit PP is add Lucic subtract Hall.

    3. A full season of healthy Klefbom.

    Klefbom’s 5v5 GF%
    15-16 46.2
    16-17 43.8

    Klefbom’s 5v4 GF60
    15-16 5.89
    16-17 7.68

    Klefbom’s 4v5 GA60
    15-16 2.93
    16-17 4.64

    So far, Klefbom’s numbers are worse this season than last. You can point out that Klefbom’s partner for the better part of the year has been Larsson.

    Larsson’s 5v5 GF% with and without Klefbom:
    With 45.0
    W/O 56.5

    Klefbom’s 5v5 GF% with and without Larsson
    With 45.0
    W/O 43.5

    Larsson has played 318 games. Klefbom has played 151. They’re both young defenders. Only one of them is a veteran. A veteran defenseman can handle his minutes. Klefbom’s still learning.

    4. A full season of an adjusted-to-Edmonton Sekera.

    Sekera’s numbers are better at 5v5 and 4v5 and about the same at 5v4. But I don’t think he gets there on his own. He has a somewhat controversial partner who boosts his results with his microstat magic. So I’ll still take issue with the idea of 2nd year Sekera improving the Oilers on his own.

    5. A full season of an adjusted-to-starting-in-Edmonton Talbot.

    Talbot’s Save %
    15-16 91.7
    16-17 91.7

    Oilers GAA
    15-16 2.95
    16-17 2.66

    Hmm, same save percentage, lower goals against. How does that happen? Only way is with lower shots against. Lowering shots against is a job for the defense. We have a few new workers in the defense department, I hear.

    6. A hitting-his-stride-right-out-of-the-park Draisatl.

    Drai’s P60
    15-16 2.35
    16-17 2.81

    Drai’s 5v5 P60
    15-16 2.22
    16-17 1.93

    Drai’s 5v4 P60
    15-16 2.89
    16-17 7.43 (!!)

    The out-of-the-park numbers come on the first unit PP, not 5v5. At 5v5, he’s not doing as well as last year. I’m trying to think of a net front presence that wasn’t around last year. Give me a second.

    7. A DRAMATICALLY improved Nurse.

    Well he’s no longer a big factor this year but let’s take a look at the dramatic improvement anyway.

    Nurse’s 5v5 GF%
    15-16 41.7
    16-17 45.1

    Nurse’s 4v5 GA60
    15-16 6.80
    16-17 5.44

    So he’s better but not dramatically better. One thing has improved for Nurse. He plays less minutes. And that’s possible because Chia brought in 3 new defensemen who, it turns out, can all play and handle minutes.

    8. A full season of Patrick Maroon.

    Maroon played 16 games with us last year. He’s played 44 so far this year.

    Maroon P60
    15/16 3.35
    16/17 2.05

    So you can see… Oh screw it. I can’t say anything bad about Maroon. Like everyone else, he does better with CMD. But he seems to do just fine with anyone. He’s great. I don’t know if a full year with him would have been enough to make the team better though.

    There you have it. The Oilers’ “turnaround” cannot be traced to the improvements of the players we already had. It can be traced to the arrival of players we didn’t have.

    Off to bed.

  88. nelson88 says:

    Zelepukin:
    Lander was made for the AHL.

    Strongly suspect he was also made for the NHL. Hope to see it soon with another NHL team willing to give him a legitimate shot.

    Another Kyle Brodziak situation. Ass hats

  89. hunter1909 says:

    Melman: You’re 100% right. Pampered star players who don’t fight are cancers and garbage. See: Malkin, OV, Jagr, Seguin, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos

    Sigh.

    Reading comprehension class cancelled this week?

    How about if I put it this way?: Fuck up the tail end of a DYNASTY through incredible mismanagement over a 15 year period(sorry if my 15 years timeline is a year or two off). Draft 1st overall multiple times, without managing to draft a single defencman in any of these generational opportunity situations…just keep drafting physically undersized types to name one example RNH. Tell these players(not named Yakupov) they’re all “special” in true millennial participation medal fashion – while the other 29 NHL teams look on angrily/jealously. Have a rotating coaching carousel that includes Dallas “The Snake” Eakins, plus the ridiculous sight of MacT standing at the bench for that 10 game(forgive me if it was a few games less) stint which helped no one aside from further proving the absolute level of stupidity that is MacT. Miss the playoffs 11 years running, tying the NHL record.

    Hire Chiarelli, who after a few teething problems *cough Reinhart cough* has the team in 5th in the Western Conference, well in the hunt for 3rd place as soon as tonight possibly – provided they beat Calgary Saturday night.

  90. hunter1909 says:

    Melman:
    hunter1909,

    You’re 100% right. Pampered star players who don’t fight are cancers and garbage.See: Malkin, OV, Jagr, Seguin, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos

    I have full respect for his repeatedly saying he loved the City and was pissed he got traded

    Try this: I used to watch the Dynasty. The Dynasty had 5 types of players:

    Skill – Gretzky, Kurri, Coffey, Simpson

    Killers with skill – Messier, Anderson

    Killers + Rats – McSorely, Semenko, Linseman, Tikkannen

    Foot Soldiers(with quality) – MacT, Huddy, Lowe

    Great Goalies – Fuhr, Moog, Ranford

    Compare this to the recent Oilers:

    Skill – Hall, Eberle, RNH, Yakupov

    Killers with Skill – Maroon, Lucic, Nurse

    Killers + Rats – Kassian, Gribya

    Foot Soldiers(with quality) – n/a

    Great Goalies – n/a

    Basically, the pre-Chiarelli Oilers were built like a pre-Civil War Alabama plantation bird bath.

  91. treevojo says:

    Georges,

    Georges who can’t sleep brings the heat.

    Apparently not all the intellectuals got the memo of sticking together.

  92. frjohnk says:

    I said this yesterday afternoon. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 🙂

    &;:
    frjohnk says:
    January 13, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    And speaking of tomorrows game,
    we win, 5 points up on the Flames
    we lose, 1 point up on the Flames

    EDIT: And I should add that I expect NJ to beat the Flames tonight because Hall and Kassian are best of friends and Hall will win this one for his BFF Kassian. Pretty sure I read something along those lines today.

    Hall with the game winner for his BFF.

    If we make the playoffs over Calgary by a point, then we can say Hall helped us make the playoffs.

  93. Diablo says:

    Just reading over the shift-by-shift summary of Jesse’s game last night – sounds like he dominated the game playing on the 2nd line. Perhaps this is why Chia resisted sending him to the minors – they didn’t feel like he’d be challenged enough? Now he goes down to get his timing and confidence back, then comes back up after the deadline for the stretch run.

    Or they didn’t know about the 39 game thing. Nah – its probably the latter.

    Looking forward to tonights BOA – we get Calgary on the second night of a B2B for them, with a chance to create some separation in the standings with a win.

  94. raventalon40 says:

    hunter1909: That’s one of the problems with the Taylor Hall Oilers. Pampered star players who thought fighting was beneath them.

    Larsson is a tough defenseman. Maroon is a tough winger. So is Lucic. Kassian is a psycho. Nurse, he’s already trending toward Bengal tiger status. Now compare these players to Patrick O’Sullivan, Nillsson, Gagner etc.

    Chiarelli’s turned this team into a kind of Murderer’s Row. Hall, in his way, was just trying to show them he belonged.

    It’s painfully obvious that Taylor Hall loves the Edmonton Oilers.

    http://imgur.com/tLHtbrR

  95. Muletrain97 says:

    Going to the Condors-Reign game tonight and will post a review of Pool Party and the game later. Deuces!

  96. Jaxon says:

    Lander’s AHL season is pretty impressive. Highest PPG since 2005-2006 season:

    1. Ryan Getzlaf 2005-06 – 1.94
    2. Brandon Bochenski 2006-07 – 1.89
    3. Mark Arcobello 2013-14 – 1.87
    4. Jason Krog 2006-07 – 1.82
    5. Corey Perry 2005-06 – 1.79
    6. Anton Lander 2016-17 – 1.79

    Note about Getzlaf and Perry. Their 2005-06 team was stacked with 7 future NHL scorers in Dustin Penner, PA Parenteau, Curtis Glencross, Chris Kunitz and Bobby Ryan (for the playoffs). That is a lot of firepower on one AHL team. Lander doesn’t have near the support this season.

  97. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Rogers place recommendations?

    I guess I’ll see Subban, hope he is rusty though.

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