KEITH GRETZKY’S WHITEBOARD, VOLUME 1

I will be honest with you, it is not certain to me who should be named as the owner of the whiteboard in procurement at this time. Of course the buck stops at Peter Chiarelli, but I think Keith Gretzky, Duane Sutter and Bob Green may all have input into this area of the organization at some level. Edmonton is officially difficult to read from the outside at this time. Last year, I suggested it was Bob Green, this year we will give it to Gretzky and apologize if we are wrong.

In today’s post, I am going to detail players who are UFA, RFA and signed to current minor league deals. The idea is this: Teams are always in fluid motion, so some of the youngsters signed to deals are no longer considered part of the future—and some of the kids who are currently free agents are being evaluated by the NHL team at this time. Constant motion.

CURRENT UFA’S

The NHL free agents—Kris Russell, Matt Hendricks, Eric Gryba, Andrew Ference, Jonas Gustavsson, Tyler Pitlick—are surely under the purview of the general manager, so we will discuss those things at a later time. Here are the minor league UFAs:

  • LD Mark Fraser. I think the Oilers have to move on from him, based only on the sheer number of LH blue on the pro roster—and the lefties who are coming from the amateur side. Caleb Jones is already signed, while Ziyat Paigin and William Lagesson could get contracts over the summer. I would guess that Fraser is unlikely to return.

CURRENT RFA’S

The NHL RFAs—Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian, Anton Lander, Iiro Pakarinen, Taylor Beck—would be in the Chiarelli wing of the conversation and we will get to them in due time.

  • C-L Jujhar Khaira. This young man could be a useful value contract next season, as his entry-level deal expires and the club looks to replace Matt Hendricks on the port side. Todd McLellan has other options, including Anton Lander, so NHL employment is not assured. I will guess he receives a one-way deal for something less than $1 million a year. Should be an Oiler opening night 2016-17.
  • LD Griffin Reinhart. He will get signed, and I think it is reasonable to suggest Reinhart will be part of the NHL team this fall—or in another NHL town. Not a chance in hell a former No. 4 overall selection passes through waivers, and I do think there is at least a chance the Vegas Golden Knights take him in expansion.
  • LD Dillon Simpson. I expect he gets extended, but (unlike Khaira and Reinhart) my feeling is that Simpson is offered a two-way NHL deal. He showed well enough, but probably ranks No. 9 or No. 10 on the NHL depth chart when everyone is healthy.
  • LD Jordan Oesterle. The hits just keep on coming. I think he could go either way, but his foot speed is damned intriguing.
  • LD David Musil. It is time to let him go, there is no future here and Musil may have better luck in another organization—preferably one with fewer than 20 left-handed defensemen.
  • L Joey Laleggia. His position change is perhaps a tell, and could indicate the Oilers see some potential for him at this position. I will guess an AHL deal is offered, but it may be close. Peter Chiarelli employed undersized skill wingers in Boston, but they were very productive.
  • L Mitch Moroz. The progress of Jujhar Khaira (chosen one round behind Moroz in 2012) is an example of a smooth transition to pro hockey. Moroz has had a tougher time, as his checking role in junior (which blossomed to a feature role as he became more senior) has eluded the young man in the AHL. He was a high pick, so Edmonton may decide to extend him, but the numbers suggest the team may move on or offer a minor league deal.
  • LC Bogdan Yakimov. I think he is done. Edmonton needs room on the 50-man, and the young center left them hamstrung for the entire season.
  • LC Jere Sallinen. Easy call. He will not be back.
  • RC Zachary Pochiro. He is in a difficult spot, roster player dealt for NHL player to make the 50-man work. I do not believe he is offered an NHL or AHL deal this offseason.
  • G Eetu Laurikainen. He will not return, Oilers will move on.

MINOR LEAGUE FREE AGENTS

  • L Scott Allen. I think the Oilers like him a lot. This is a player who is getting the Moroz minutes, and he is a big winger (6.03, 200) who fits the Chiarelli style. I suspect he gets an NHL deal.
  • C Josh Currie. It depends on how things roll, but he could get an NHL deal, too. I am usually wrong on the skill guys, but Currie is a very good AHL player and signing him may require an NHL contract.
  • L Joey Benik. His trip to the ECHL probably means he won’t be back, but he has AHL skill for sure.
  • RD Bryce Aneloski. He is a righty, and that alone makes him a player of interest. I will guess there is discussion of an AHL deal.
  • R Jaedon Descheneau. I like his speed a lot and he does have skill. I always love these players and the Oilers never ever sign them. I will guess they pass on him.

GRADUATING JUNIOR FREE AGENTS

  • RD Ryan Mantha, Niagra IceDogs. He was drafted by the NY Rangers, but they chose not to sign him. Mantha has performed very well as an overager (1996) and someone will sign him.
  • RD Aaron Irving, Everett Silvertips. It may be just an AHL deal, but I believe he can play pro and he addresses an extreme area of need for the organization.
  • L Ryan Graham, Swift Current Broncos. Fast winger with a terrific shot, Oilers need a bunch of these guys, maybe one will cash.
  • RD Darren Raddysh, Erie Otters. Former teammate of Connor McDavid, he is a steady defender with two-way ability. Nothing flashy, but he can play.
  • RC Austin Glover, Red Deer Rebels. He has good size and speed, enough skill to project to the pro level if he can stay healthy.
  • L Dawson Leedahl, Regina Pats. Big winger, good speed, skill and plays a responsible game.
  • L Dominic Zwerger, Spokane Chiefs. Fast and skilled winger blossomed this season.

Next time we chat about the whiteboard, I will throw in some college names and a few other CHL players who have been performing well this winter.

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131 Responses to "KEITH GRETZKY’S WHITEBOARD, VOLUME 1"

  1. Diesel says:

    I’m really hoping Lander is not a casualty of our fluid motion. He will be useful in the wars to come.

  2. Moose says:

    LT,

    Isn’t Pitlick scheduled to become a Group VI UFA now because of the lack of games played?

    Unfortunate, but organization has been so loyal to him, I can see him wanting to return the favor.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Moose:
    LT,

    Isn’t Pitlick scheduled to become a Group VI UFA now because of the lack of games played?

    Unfortunate, but organization has been so loyal to him, I can see him wanting to return the favor.

    Yeah, I suspect something gets done. We are invested in him after all those years. 🙂

  4. Westchester Oil says:

    Any news on Sekera? Is he injured?

    Also, if everyone is healthy when Nurse comes back, we will have 7 legit NHL dmen – Sekera, Klef, Larsson, Russell, Davy, Benning + Nurse. Imagine that and compare that to the sad situation just from a couple years ago.

    Once everyone is healthy – who sits out??

  5. Lowetide says:

    Westchester Oil:
    Any news on Sekera? Is he injured?

    Also, if everyone is healthy when Nurse comes back, we will have 7 legit NHL dmen – Sekera, Klef, Larsson, Russel, Davy, Bennington + Nurse. Imagine that and compare that to the sad situation just from a couple years ago.

    Once everyone is healthy – who sits out??

    Sekera will play tomorrow night according to Todd McLellan. You never know, Andrej Sekera could wake up at 2am with pain, but so far so good. I would go:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Benning
    Nurse-Davidson

  6. cc says:

    My bet is they replace Russell and Gryba.

    On a selfish note; I’m coming to Edmonton (St. Albert) this weekend for the John Reid Memorial Tournament and hoping to land a single ticket or two for Friday nights game if anyone has a source. You can text me direct 306.737.1077

  7. DBO says:

    Lowetide: Sekera will play tomorrow night according to Todd McLellan. You never know, Andrej Sekera could wake up at 2am with pain, but so far so good. I would go:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Benning
    Nurse-Davidson

    They seem to have a lot of time for Russell. So no way he sits.

    Knowing the leftorium is in full swing on both the NHL and AHL teams, would a lefty for righty swap for a run make sense. Could or would anyone do a Shattenkirk for Davidson and a combo of picks and prospects? With a high probablility that we could lose Davidson for nothing in the expansion draft, it seems to make sense that we deal him for an asset that balances us out.

  8. TeeVee says:

    Does Nurse plus a draft pick get you Duchene?

  9. DBO says:

    TeeVee:
    Does Nurse plus a draft pick get you Duchene?

    I think they love Nurse and he doesn’t need to be protected. Would take something huge to pry him away, and while I like Duchene, with his contract and protected status he doesn’t fit our cap structure and protected list.

  10. spoiler says:

    DBO,

    IMO there’s a very good chance Davidson is not an Oiler after the deadline. My opinion makes me sad though.

    I doubt Shattenkirk is a target as it sounds like he wants to play in the NY area. Gord knows the Devils could use his offense. Be tough to give up value when there’s no chance of an extension.

  11. DBO says:

    spoiler,

    I would also hate to lose him, but the reason I went to Shattenkirk is it fills a huge need, doesn’t mess with our protected list and uses an asset we probably lose for nothing. So seemed like an intriguing idea if we plan on making a real run.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Benning
    Russell-Shattenkirk

    Thats pretty solid. And balanced, although I expect Nurse to force his way into the lineup, and that is an awesome problem to have.

  12. spoiler says:

    spoiler,

    I should add that it would surprise me to see Shattenkirk moved at the deadline. I think it would take a perfect deal… one of the NY teams willing to give up an actual NHL defenseman in return

  13. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I would go:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Benning
    Nurse-Davidson

    The coach wont’t

    Russell is well liked by the coaching staff.

    He has averaged 21:35 minutes a game. Plays all situations. Only Sekera with 21:55 averages more a game. Klefbom averages 21:19, while Larsson averages 20:09. The rest average in the teens.

    Woodguy has mentioned the Oilers like goal metrics, and the list below shows that when Russell is on the ice, the opposition does not score much. Yeah, he is riding the PDO wave, but just like Maroon, he a player is hot, the coach will ride him until he isnt hot.

    Player GA/60
    Oscar Klefbom 2.95
    Eric Gryba 2.58
    Adam Larsson 2.48
    Brandon Davidson 2.3
    Matthew Benning 1.98
    Andrej Sekera 1.53
    Kris Russell 1.5

    Id be very surprised if Russell does not end the season with the Oilers.

  14. spoiler says:

    DBO,

    Oh, he’s damn near ideal for us. But Nurse won’t be moving unless Shatty is on an extension (and even then likely not), or willing to sign one, and the extension is the problem. Not to mention the added complication of Expansion draft this summer.

  15. kinger_OIL says:

    Westchester Oil:
    Any news on Sekera? Is he injured?

    Also, if everyone is healthy when Nurse comes back, we will have 7 legit NHL dmen – Sekera, Klef, Larsson, Russell, Davy, Benning + Nurse. Imagine that and compare that to the sad situation just from a couple years ago.

    Once everyone is healthy – who sits out??

    – That’s the thing that I think many who criticize Chia fail to appreciate.

    – Cha wasn’t “all-in,it has to work” with Griff for instance. He made a number of acquistions to shore up the D: Sek, Larsson, Benning, Russell. Kept Davidson, etc

    – Contrast that with MacT, he of “I’m reasonably confident in our D”

    – Looking for more heavy forwards to play: he gets Lucic, Maroon, Kassian (had Verseeg)

    -To me, this is prudent management. Many tend to pounce on :”man that Griff trade was bad”, or “Man they paid too much for Lucic: Chia is sh#t

    – He has made a series of investments that as a whole have made the team a lot better

    – Rarely do most recognize that Chia set up plan A, B and C in positions of weakness

    – MacT was so bad at having a plan B if Nikitin didn’t work out as an example. He chased DD out of town and had noone to replace him…

    – Sure Chia’s not perfect. He “lost” some trade. If you don’t agree with a trade, you have to recognize the redundancies that he built in: that’s a sign of a good manager in any industry

    – So I say: “Chia is awesome, look at the D depth he created in 18 months” Others say: “Chia is sh$t, he got hosed on that Griff trade”

  16. spoiler says:

    frjohnk,

    At seeing those numbers… is Sekera also riding the PDO wave? Honest question.

  17. Centre of attention says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-trading-duchene-headlines-first-trade-bait-list~1037249

    Sounds like the Oilers are in deep on Shattenkirk. Oilers were only real destination discussed by Bob McKenzie & the panel.

    Bob McKenzie quote: “We do know this, the Oilers and Shattenkirk talked last summer. The word was at the time he didn’t look favorably at Edmonton. But because how things have changed there, and because the Blues maybe aren’t as good maybe he looks at things differently.”

    Combine this with Bob Stauffer’s interview with Talbot:

    Bob Stauffer quote: “Would you try and sell this team to other players, possible free agents now that you’ve seen whats going on here?”

    Talbot: “Yes of course”

    Stauffer immediately after the interview ends: “Cam Talbot shares the same agency as Kevin Shattenkirk”

    Sooooo 7 years 49 million sound like the most likely extension? Yikes that’s a lot of cheddar. He turns 28 years old on the 29th of this month.

    Hmmmmmmmmmm.

    Really the first question to answer here is what would St Louis want? Lets say the 7 x 7 contract gets agreed too and St Louis is notified. What do they ask for knowing they are giving up a player with term? Eberle + ? First rounder + LHD?

    Again, its the kind of question that makes you go hmmmmmmmm.

    Would love to hear everyone’s opinions (any other rumors?) on the Shattenkirk sweepstakes.

  18. kinger_OIL says:

    Centre of attention,

    Klef-Larsson
    Sek-Shattenkirk
    Davidson-Benning

    – That’s why you do it. You worry about 4 years in 4 years.

    – Shattenkirk costs less Ferrence and Russell this year: That’s called an upgrade

  19. treevojo says:

    spoiler,

    Sekera 102

    Russell 101.5

    Benning101.5

    The rest are under 100

  20. PunjabiOil says:

    If you are serious about Shattenkirk this year as a rental and possibly more, then I think the play is to move Russell for a second round pick to recoup some of your acquisition cost.

    Shattenkirk fits the bill because you don’t have to protect him for the expansion draft.

    Would assume Sekera then gets moved after year 3 when his NMC expires.

  21. treevojo says:

    kinger_OIL,

    What did you do with nurse?

  22. PunjabiOil says:

    treevojo:
    kinger_OIL,

    What did you do with nurse?

    Or you move Davidson before the expansion draft for a forward that you want to protect.

    Ryan spooner

  23. Centre of attention says:

    PunjabiOil:
    If you are serious about Shattenkirk this year as a rental and possibly more, then I think the play is to move Russell for a second round pick to recoup some of your acquisition cost.

    Shattenkirk fits the bill because you don’t have to protect him for the expansion draft.

    Would assume Sekera then gets moved after year 3 when his NMC expires.

    Maybe you let the Blues talk to Russel while you talk to Shattenkirk, and do Russel (extension agreed too in St Louis) + Lottery protected first for Shattenkirk (with contract agreed)

    Agree that Sekera probably doesn’t finish his contract here, especially if they are digging deep to pay Shatty and then Nurse.

  24. frjohnk says:

    spoiler:
    frjohnk,

    At seeing those numbers… is Sekera also riding the PDO wave?Honest question.

    Yup.
    This year
    PDO Sv%
    99.47 ADAM.LARSSON 91.43
    102.03 ANDREJ.SEKERA 94.1
    101.79 KRIS.RUSSELL 94.17
    97.42 OSCAR.KLEFBOM 89.89

    14-15 and 15-16 together.
    PDO Player Sv%
    101.69 ADAM.LARSSON 94.18
    98.18 ANDREJ.SEKERA 91.47
    102.44 KRIS.RUSSELL 91.77
    96.47 OSCAR.KLEFBOM 89.04

  25. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    kinger_OIL,

    You have made this point several times but I have to say I totally disagree with you on this one.

    It is not binary.

    I, and many others belong to a 3rd camp you fail to mention.

    Chia is an okay/middle-of-the-pack GM. He does well on small trades and acquisitions: Russell, Benning, Kassian, Talbot. He has done a little worse on some bigger trades.
    Overall he has been okay, which is far better than past 10 years.

  26. frjohnk says:

    EBERLE + for Shattenkirk and YAK!!!

  27. who says:

    Centre of attention:
    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-trading-duchene-headlines-first-trade-bait-list~1037249

    Sounds like the Oilers are in deep on Shattenkirk. Oilers were only real destination discussed by Bob McKenzie & the panel.

    Bob McKenzie quote: “We do know this, the Oilers and Shattenkirk talked last summer. The word was at the time he didn’t look favorably at Edmonton. But because how things have changed there, and because the Blues maybe aren’t as good maybe he looks at things differently.”

    Combine this with Bob Stauffer’s interview with Talbot:

    Bob Stauffer quote: “Would you try and sell this team to other players, possible free agents now that you’ve seen whats going on here?”

    Talbot: “Yes of course”

    Stauffer immediately after the interview ends: “Cam Talbot shares the same agency as Kevin Shattenkirk”

    Sooooo 7 years 49 million sound like the most likely extension? Yikes that’s a lot of cheddar. He turns 28 years old on the 29th of this month.

    Hmmmmmmmmmm.

    Really the first question to answer here is what would St Louis want? Lets say the 7 x 7 contract gets agreed too and St Louis is notified. What do they ask for knowing they are giving up a player with term? Eberle + ? First rounder + LHD?

    Again, its the kind of question that makes you go hmmmmmmmm.

    Would love to hear everyone’s opinions (any other rumors?) on the Shattenkirk sweepstakes.

    Don’t do it. Not as a rental and not with a long term deal. He is the blues third best righty dman. If they are that desperate for a righty power play guy they could probably get green out of Detroit for a lot less.
    Personally I think they just let the dmen they have continue to develop. They are not winning the cup this year but they are going to make the playoffs. Every significant player on this roster should be as good or better 80 games from now. And 160 games from now. Don’t blow your load before you are actually ready to compete for a cup.

  28. Alpine says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    kinger_OIL,

    You have made this point several times but I have to say I totally disagree with you on this one.

    It is not binary.

    I, and many others belong to a 3rd camp you fail to mention.

    Chia is an okay/middle-of-the-pack GM. He does well on small trades and acquisitions: Russell, Benning, Kassian, Talbot. He has done a little worse on some bigger trades.
    Overall he has been okay, which is far better than past 10 years.

    I’ve considered Chia for a while to be a less-abrasive, and slightly less creative Brian Burke. There’s some real parallels between their Cup wins in BOS and ANA respectively. They both have mediocre drafting records. They both have pulled off some nice trades and some prettty controversial ones. Chiarelli made big FA signings and trades that led to his Cup in BOS and inherited Bergeron, Krejci etc where Burke did similar while inheriting Perry, Getzlaf.

  29. oscarmike says:

    This is the Oilers(Stanley Cup Contenders)
    If Shattenkirk wants to win the Cup with Edmonton
    he’s signs for no more than $6milliom/yr. That’s
    a fair price. Shattenkirk isn’t elite and really
    not that much better than Sekera

    Than Oilers offer Russel 3yr@$2.5mil next year
    Nurse can start at the #7 D

    Sekera-Shattenkirk
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russel-Benning
    Nurse

    Davidson is traded or lost at the expansion draft

  30. Centre of attention says:

    who,

    Valid points and I’m kind of on the fence my self.

    Just think about how f*cking good this powerplay would be with McDavid feeding Shattenkirk? I giggle like a 5 year old just thinking about it.

  31. Oilanderp says:

    frjohnk:
    EBERLE + for Shattenkirk and YAK!!!

    I love you 🙂

  32. dustrock says:

    Sorry, Hitchcock is gone after this season and they are still in the playoffs.

    Why does St Louis deal Shattenkirk to a playoff rival?

    And if the Oilers are that confident about a UFA contract for Shattenkirk why would they give much for a rental?

  33. El Duderino says:

    In the 2011 draft blog. there were a number of people poo-pooing the Musil pick. I recall support for Jenner, Kucherov and Saad. That team of commenters should be charged with the 2017 draft for they are smarter than the people who were paid good bucks to do the job. The poor drafting has been going on for about 30 years now. So like WTF.

  34. Centre of attention says:

    dustrock:
    Sorry, Hitchcock is gone after this season and they are still in the playoffs.

    Why does St Louis deal Shattenkirk to a playoff rival?

    And if the Oilers are that confident about a UFA contract for Shattenkirk why would they give much for a rental?

    I was with you and then Bob McKenzie spent a good part of TSN’s trade bait segment talking specifically about the Oilers and Shattenkirk.

    When that kind of thing happens, among other things, you at least start paying attention.

    Something to watch, but of course no deal is imminent and there is always a good chance nothing happens at all.

  35. spoiler says:

    Centre of attention,

    Did Bob state whether these discussions happened before or after the trade for Larsson?

  36. kinger_OIL says:

    treevojo,

    – I left Nurse out to see who would notice: Chia has done an outstanding job with the D in 18 months that we can even contemplate: “what about Nurse” because we’ve got 6-7 as good or better now…

  37. Centre of attention says:

    dustrock,

    I also didn’t quote the entire Bob McKenzie segment, I recommend giving it a listen yourself.

    But he does talk about how the Blues might “view their situation differently than maybe they did when they made the western conference final last year” so perhaps they try and cash him out rather than seeing him walk for nothing like Backes and Brower?

  38. Centre of attention says:

    spoiler:
    Centre of attention,

    Did Bob state whether these discussions happened before or after the trade for Larsson?

    He just said “Last summer”.

    According to Chiarelli himself, he had been talking to Shero since they had both taken over in their organizations in 2015. The Larsson deal was probably talked about for quite some time.

    I think Chiarelli wants to add Shattenkirk and maybe flip a separate blue liner (Klefbom possibly) in return for a significant RW addition. That might let them deal Eberle in the off season for cap relief without leaving a major hole.

    I’m way off on a tangent now, this is all just speculation, remember that haha. Definitely interesting to think about.

  39. kinger_OIL says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    – If you don’t agree that the sum of the acquisitions of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Griff, keeping Davidson, punting the Actons, etc isn’t an excellent job in terms of in and out then for sure we won’t agree

    – One can point to what we see as short-comings in individual trades, but on a sum-of-the-parts, he has changed the D and its potential from bottom of league to potentially elite, and certainly play-off calibre in 18 months.

    – Depth matters, and he has made enough moves that he was not reliant on one trade or one move to knock it out of the park. That’s what a bad manager does: “all-in one or two moves”. This was the Oil when they were whale hunting when they sucked, or getting Nikitin and thinking we are all good

    – I guess I’m in the minority but I don’t focus on the individual moves: I look at the big picture. Maybe one day I will do a “debit/credit” on all the meaningful roster moves, factoring term, control, positional depth, redundancy built in, giving chance to fail, rather than needing to succeed

    – I think he’s created great value, is in a position now to make some defining moves in this trade season, the Vegas draft, and summer free-agency.

  40. who says:

    Centre of attention: He just said “Last summer”.

    According to Chiarelli himself, he had been talking to Shero since they had both taken over in their organizations in 2015. The Larsson deal was probably talked about for quite some time.

    I think Chiarelli wants to add Shattenkirk and maybe flip a separate blue liner (Klefbom possibly) in return for a significant RW addition. That might let them deal Eberle in the off season for cap relief without leaving a major hole.

    I’m way off on a tangent now, this is all just speculation, remember that haha. Definitely interesting to think about.

    I could see them trading for Shattenkirk and then trading either Russell or Davidson to recoup some of what they gave up.
    Don’t see them trading Klefbom. Too much cost certainty to give up that contract. Plus Klefbom still has the highest ceiling of the three.

  41. kgo says:

    Lowetide: Sekera will play tomorrow night according to Todd McLellan. You never know, Andrej Sekera could wake up at 2am with pain, but so far so good. I would go:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Benning
    Nurse-Davidson

    I’m quite sure Sekera’s arm is causing him pain, and will hurt for a few days…that won’t stop him from playing.

  42. flyfish1168 says:

    phlegms are playing pretty good hockey tonight. Dominant so far in all 3 zones. Backlund line is their best line. This is going to be a telling week for us. We get 2 teams that would have played the phlegms night before and they will be rested against us for the HNC rematch.

  43. kgo says:

    who: I could see them trading for Shattenkirk and then trading either Russell or Davidson to recoup some of what they gave up.
    Don’t see them trading Klefbom. Too much cost certainty to give up that contract. Plus Klefbom still has the highest ceiling of the three.

    IMO Klefbom has been pushed to last place in the top 4, behind Sekera, Larsson and Russel, a deadline acquisition could knock him to fifth. Nurse and Benning makes things even more interesting next year…I’m not so sure Klef will be an Oiler for long….He’s having a good season offensively, he’s been healthy all year (knocking on wood repeatedly), and as you said he’s cost controlled….might be the time to sell high

  44. Centre of attention says:

    who: I could see them trading for Shattenkirk and then trading either Russell or Davidson to recoup some of what they gave up.
    Don’t see them trading Klefbom. Too much cost certainty to give up that contract. Plus Klefbom still has the highest ceiling of the three.

    To be clear, if I am GM I do everything I can to keep Klefbom.

    I’m speculating on what the Oilers will do whenever I talk about these crazy trade scenarios.

  45. Melman says:

    Getzlaf during 1st period interview vs. TB on Fox:

    Q: …not a lot of offense generated, what can you guys do to change that?
    A: “We’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing. It’s going to be a boring game, were playing a high flying team…”

    Ouch. Way to make the fans want to watch hockey Ryan. Keep cashing those cheques.

  46. treevojo says:

    kinger_OIL:
    treevojo,

    – I left Nurse out to see who would notice: Chia has done an outstanding job with the D in 18 months that we can even contemplate: “what about Nurse” because we’ve got 6-7 as good or better now…

    I always notice when someone leaves out or tries to trade nurse.

    He’s my favourite style of defenseman.

    Agree with you about the defense.

    Chia has done an outstanding job in 18 months addressing that black hole.

    I would like to see what our current depth chart on defence can do in the playoffs before overpaying for and offence first defenseman.

    Add a couple of vet forwards that have high shooting pct at the deadline.

    Make caggulia, sleppy, hendy, kaira, and the poos earn their mins.

  47. Chachi says:

    flyfish1168:
    phlegms are playing pretty good hockey tonight. Dominant so far in all 3 zones. Backlund line is their best line. This is going to be a telling week for us. We get 2 teams that would have played the phlegms night before and they will be rested against us for the HNC rematch.

    I sure hope Florida plays just like this tomorrow night. They are awful tonight.

  48. flyfish1168 says:

    Chachi: I sure hope Florida plays just like this tomorrow night. They are awful tonight.

    Panthers lucky, 2 phlegm goals called back for off side.

  49. Chachi says:

    flyfish1168: Panthers lucky, 2 phlegm goals called back for off side.

    Yup.

  50. Georges says:

    I’m looking at Shattenkirk’s playoff numbers and I can’t see anything outstanding about this player. Are we expecting him to make a Pronger-like leap once he comes over? If anyone can point out an outstanding quality about Shattenkirk, I’d know what to look for.

  51. Scungilli says:

    Centre of attention: Maybe you let the Blues talk to Russel while you talk to Shattenkirk, and do Russel (extension agreed too in St Louis) + Lottery protected first for Shattenkirk (with contract agreed)

    Agree that Sekera probably doesn’t finish his contract here, especially if they are digging deep to pay Shatty and then Nurse.

    No need for a pick. Ufa status and the cap diff next year cover everything. But, are they rebuilding on the fly? If so Russell doesn’t help.

  52. Chachi says:

    Georges:
    I’m looking at Shattenkirk’s playoff numbers and I can’t see anything outstanding about this player. Are we expecting him to make a Pronger-like leap once he comes over? If anyone can point out an outstanding quality about Shattenkirk, I’d know what to look for.

    His last name is a combination of William Shatner’s last name and the last name of the character he is most famous for portraying…sort of anyways?

  53. Scungilli says:

    Georges:
    I’m looking at Shattenkirk’s playoff numbers and I can’t see anything outstanding about this player. Are we expecting him to make a Pronger-like leap once he comes over? If anyone can point out an outstanding quality about Shattenkirk, I’d know what to look for.

    Woodguy and me and Ricki have posted many times about the relative value of offense from D.

    There are a few guys who truly drive the bus. They are worth the coin. Most do not. Two way guys are better options (like Sekera) because they play the whole game. The team is insulated from injuries more if everyone can play 5v5 and special teams even if they aren’t elite. Competence keeps the system going, costs less, and is less defendable because one guy isn’t the whole shoe. Given D dominate TOI, a very good group of 6 does more to win the battle than great forwards and weak D.

    I think our fair Oilers bear this out, as do the Hawks Habs Minnesota and Nashville. Bring in a guy like Trouba for Klefbom and run

    Sekera Larsson
    Nurse Trouba
    Davie/? Benning

    and you’re laffin’. A mobile skilled all game states D, all with good weight and 5 physical.

  54. spoiler says:

    Melman:
    Getzlaf during 1st period interview vs. TB on Fox:

    Q: …not a lot of offense generated, what can you guys do to change that?
    A: “We’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing.It’s going to be a boring game, were playing a high flying team…”

    Ouch.Way to make the fans want to watch hockey Ryan. Keep cashing those cheques.

    That made me go look for the Preds-Nucks instead.

  55. Georges says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    kinger_OIL,

    You have made this point several times but I have to say I totally disagree with you on this one.

    It is not binary.

    I, and many others belong to a 3rd camp you fail to mention.

    Chia is an okay/middle-of-the-pack GM. He does well on small trades and acquisitions: Russell, Benning, Kassian, Talbot. He has done a little worse on some bigger trades.
    Overall he has been okay, which is far better than past 10 years.

    I’d go with Talbot as a big acquisition in terms of impact. Talbot was a very good bet that, after some worry, has paid off in a big way. You have to not lose before you can win. I’d give Chia full marks for knowing his goaltenders. But then he went and got Gus even though Gus showed him what he was capable of in Boston. Hmm. But getting Talbot is a very big plus and Gus is a minor minus, so Chia wins big here. I wish Toronto wasn’t sharp enough to pick up that Mcil-whatshisname. That would’ve been a good test for our GM.

    The Reinhart stuff I read on here I don’t know what to make of it. He’s young, right? You said yourself defensemen take time. Does he have no shot at all? Is that Barzal fella a can’t miss? Does Reinhart count as a big deal?

    As for the other big transaction… is it OK to say I like Larsson a lot? He’s pretty good and he’s getting better. I know you liked him from way back.

  56. Georges says:

    Chachi: His last name is a combination of William Shatner’s last name and the last name of the character he is most famous for portraying…sort of anyways?

    ShatnerHooker?

  57. Georges says:

    Scungilli,

    I like that too. Can’t we keep Klef? Is it that left-right thing?

  58. Chachi says:

    Georges: ShatnerHooker?

    Ah yes, Heather Locklear at the height of her powers.

  59. Scungilli says:

    Georges:
    Scungilli,

    I like that too. Can’t we keep Klef? Is it that left-right thing?

    Yes it’s a handed thing. Klef gets Trouba straight up. I’m not sold on Klef’s defensive work, he has more offensive upside at this point IMO, I think it is a good deal for both teams. Two good young players exchanged. The Jets have 3 top 4 RHD, weak on the left, it makes sense.

  60. Younger Oil says:

    Lightning blow a lead to the Ducks, Panthers blow a lead to the Flames, Sabres blow a lead to the Leafs.

    Bah Humbug.

  61. GMB3 says:

    What do you guys think of Sharp as a deadline acquisition?

  62. spoiler says:

    GMB3,

    I think the Hawks would love it.
    😉

  63. GMB3 says:

    Checks a few boxes, not sure if he can play right wing though, or if he works under the cap.

  64. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Georges,

    Yes, of course it is okay to say you like Larsson a lot. So do I.

    And I explained Talbot poorly. Great move (same with Maroon). Did not move a highly publicized, well known asset to get him (v.s. a Hall or Yak deal or a 1st in a very deep draft).

    As for Reinhart, yes, never said he would not make it. The issue was the price paid and also that these gentlemen justified it by saying he would be NHL ready or close to ready soon. There is still time but if they leave him exposed this summer that tells you they acknowledge things have not worked out.

    That’s all.

    My point to kinger was that there is a third camp…one that can criticize Chia for some things and give him kudos for others and conclude he is doing okay, and not necessarily hate him or love him.

  65. spoiler says:

    Don’t know if this has been suggested on the Canucks boards, but I can see a Miller for Fleury trade happening.

    Solves a problem for both teams. Fleury gets to start again. Pitt gets out from the contract. Miller gets to finish out his career going forward as a backup to a Cup contender if he so desires.

  66. oscarmike says:

    Scungilli: Woodguy and me and Ricki have posted many times about the relative value of offense from D.

    There are a few guys who truly drive the bus. They are worth the coin. Most do not. Two way guys are better options (like Sekera) because they play the whole game. The team is insulated from injuries more if everyone can play 5v5 and special teams even if they aren’t elite. Competence keeps the system going, costs less, and is less defendable because one guy isn’t the whole shoe. Given D dominate TOI, a very good group of 6 does more to win the battle than great forwards and weak D.

    I think our fair Oilers bear this out, as do the Hawks Habs Minnesota and Nashville. Bring in a guy like Trouba for Klefbom and run

    Sekera Larsson
    Nurse Trouba
    Davie/? Benning

    and you’re laffin’. A mobile skilled all game states D, all with good weight and 5 physical.

    There’s no way Jets keep Myers over Trouba.
    Trouba isn’t perfect. He makes some bad mistakes.

    Oscar for Myers

  67. oscarmike says:

    oscarmike,

    That’s what a Winnipeg fan told me

  68. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    kinger_OIL:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    – If you don’t agree that the sum of the acquisitions of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Griff, keeping Davidson, punting the Actons, etc isn’t an excellent job in terms of in and out then for sure we won’t agree

    – One can point to what we see as short-comings in individual trades, but on a sum-of-the-parts, he has changed the D and its potential from bottom of league to potentially elite, and certainly play-off calibre in 18 months.

    – Depth matters, and he has made enough moves that he was not reliant on one trade or one move to knock it out of the park.That’s what a bad manager does: “all-in one or two moves”.This was the Oil when they were whale hunting when they sucked, or getting Nikitin and thinking we are all good

    – I guess I’m in the minority but I don’t focus on the individual moves: I look at the big picture.Maybe one day I will do a “debit/credit” on all the meaningful roster moves, factoring term, control, positional depth, redundancy built in, giving chance to fail, rather than needing to succeed

    – I think he’s created great value, is in a position now to make some defining moves in this trade season, the Vegas draft, and summer free-agency.

    All of this is missing my point. All of it.
    You keep painting it as one of two outcomes: you judge Chia for all his moves and conclude he is great. Or you judge Chia for individual moves and decide he is bad.

    There is a third option. On the whole he has done okay with some good individual moves and some bad ones. Is he better than MacT/Tambellini? You bet! Does that make him a great GM? Nope. For me he is an average GM. And that is better than what we have had.

    Why does it have to be one of your two outcomes? That is what I thoroughly and completely disagree with you on, not your assessment of the various moves.

    p.s. I have said numerous times how Chia has taken a chicken scratch D and slowly improved it via acquiring depth we never had before. But if I am trading Yak, a 1st, a high 2nd, paying top dollar for a UFA and trading Taylor Hall I would expect no less. If you have 10k worth of Facebook (growth stock) and you already own 30k worth of Amazon, Google, Netflix, but you have zero defensive stocks…and you sell your facebook and buy Burlington Northern and Pfizer…you have a more balanced, safer portfolio. Does that make you a great asset manager? You tell me? Maybe Facebook doubles in value while Pfizer and Burlington Northern barely move. But you can sleep better at night. Tough to judge all Chia’s moves fully just yet.

  69. stevezie says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Let’s just say that he’s ahead big picture. Is he ahead by enough?

    He inherited an amazing crisitunity. I don’t think the bar for success is playoff team, I think it’s perennial cup contender (with a couple of wins).

    I consider the Reinhart and Hall trades disastrous, have since they were made. Everyone but Mrs Reinhart has come around to my side on the first, battle lines remain entrenched on the second. Where we agree, however, is that what matters is the big picture.

    If Chia can pull off some home runs in the near future he can salvage his Oiler career. The Hall trade will remain a clear and obvious loss to people like me, but if we win a bunch of cups we’ll look at it the same way Pens fans look at the second Neal trade, Kings fans view the Dustin Brown contract, Avalanche fans view the Sundin trade etc.

    I suppose the middle ground would be the way Flames fans view the Hull trade- helped get them one cup but probably cost them several more. Would you call that a win?

    So you’re right- Chia’s still got plenty of time to be a smashing success even in the eyes of his critics.

    He’s not there yet, however, and based on his record to date I’m not full of faith. Who knows with Connor McDavid though. Who the hell knows?

  70. oscarmike says:

    Jets will want Draisaitl for Trouba.
    Jets aren’t stupid. They know all
    Edmonton needs is a Top 4D and they’re
    set for a long time on D. In, fact every team
    Knows that. Exactly why Hall got Larsson.

    Why do you think Boston gave up Hamilton
    for 3 draft picks but ask EDM for 2 picks and
    Nurse.

    When it come to trading for Top 4RD EDM
    will loose that trade every time.

  71. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",
    Totally.

    (IMO no, that hypothetical fella or dame is not a great asset manager, but I don’t know so much as all that)

  72. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I think we should judge Oilers’ entire season based on the Buffalo game, & therefore that Chia, McLellan, Woodcroft, Johnson, Herbers, Green, MacTavish, Lowe, Nicholson & Katz should all be fired.

  73. stevezie says:

    oscarmike: In, fact every team
    Knows that. Exactly why Hall got Larsson.

    I’ve heard several times that the Hall trade proves how valuable D are compared to wingers. I disagree. I think, taken in concert with Hall’s inability to get even close to an Olympic team, the teammates who have taken minor shots at him, and the lack of teammates rushing to his defence, that the better conclusion is Hall’s trade value is lower than his hockey ability would dictate.

    Plus we were desperate with a capital D for a D and every D in the league knew it.

    I do not expect Trouba could get Hall right now. Or that the equivalent of Larsson would require the equivalent of Hockey Hall to acquire.

    It was a specific set of circumstances.

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I think we should judge Oilers’ entire season based on the Buffalo game, & therefore that Chia, McLellan, Woodcroft, Johnson, Herbers, Green, MacTavish, Lowe, Nicholson & Katz should all be fired.

    Huh? Did I miss something?

  75. stevezie says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I know what you’re doing, but if I could I would fire Katz in a heartbeat. I’ll consider forgiving him for that Seattle stunt the second he gives me the smallest reason to.

  76. OilClog says:

    Would prefer it if Chia would look for a short term 1-2 year offensive PP specialist to run the point, fair to say that this season has been a bit of a over expectations, let’s not cater out the talent we have that hasn’t riped yet unless it’s for a game changer.

    Neither Star Trek nor Trouba would qualify as that, they’re good not great.

    Allow Klef, Nurse, Benning to develop watching a proven performer wih some go left but a setting sun.

    Islanders, Panthers, Flyers, they’re probably who Chia is talking to most.

    Maybe he is in talks with St.Louis but the price will be too dear when the Oilers chips are only gaining currency around the league as this team legitimizes itself.

    Shattenkirk for the first and Bogdan, or tell them to fuck off and see you in free agency, or for Kirk’s case whatever team he signs to when the Oilers kick their head in. Walk away doing the Sam Cassell ball dance. (Nba)

    Slepy, Fayne – Jagr

    1st, Eberle, Davidson, Fayne – Simmons, Goat. .. Ebs and Flows!

    Woodcroft – Weight

  77. spoiler says:

    stevezie,

    What I’ve heard recently is that COL was offering Landeskog. Hall was the only chip we had that NJ valued more than Landeskog.

  78. kgo says:

    stevezie:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I know what you’re doing, but if I could I would fire Katz in a heartbeat. I’ll consider forgiving him for that Seattle stunt the second he gives me the smallest reason to.

    Without a new arena Katz would have sold the team …Possibly before we won the lottery…He divested the Rexall conglomerate in the blink of an eye as far as billion dollar deals go…And there was no Cal Nichols and friends stepping in to save the city a second time. The stunt was harsh, but he wasn’t bluffing

  79. stevezie says:

    spoiler,

    I think there’s a pretty big difference between Landeskog and Hall. I’m open to being corrected.

    kgo: Without a new arena Katz would have sold the team

    This is not an argument in his favour. He didn’t make EIG an offer they couldn’t refuse to be nice. He saw a chance to make millions and he took it. Which is kind of fair, but does not make him sympathetic.

  80. kgo says:

    I would be going after Green in Detroit, one more year left at $6MM…Det is very tight to the cap without much coming off the books next year…If they fall out of the playoff picture and break the quarter century they’ll probably sell off aging assets..his skill set is exactly what we need for the stretch drive..He doesnt screw up our long-term plans…Edmonton can handle 6MM for one more year, or Vegas might even snag him…if the price is reasonable, and he’s willing to waive his NTC I can see a fit…Does our 1st and a 3rd get it done?…Did I mention he’s an Alberta boy with 70+ games of playoff exp.

  81. kgo says:

    stevezie:
    spoiler,

    I think there’s a pretty big difference between Landeskog and Hall. I’m open to being corrected.

    This is not an argument in his favour. He didn’t make EIG an offer they couldn’t refuse to be nice. He saw a chance to make millions and he took it. Which is kind of fair, but does not make him sympathetic.

    True, I’m not arguing for sympathy, just empathy

  82. stevezie says:

    kgo,

    My empathy tells me he was leveraging the city’s emotional connection to a sports team that’s been around for decades in an effort to squeeze them for every dime he could get.

    “Nice team you’ve got here. Shame if something were to…. “happen” to it.”

  83. kgo says:

    stevezie,

    Katz and every member of the EIG had emotional connections to the oil, they wouldn’t have sunk millions, or fractions of a billion otherwise. But..Members of EIG all expected to take a loss when they bought in…Katz could have invested his money in many more lucrative and less risky, less public places…He wasn’t trying to get every dime, damn him for investing so much in Edmonton and hopefully making a healthy return…Look at Calgary and how they’ve handled this ongoing recession….Do you realize how much the arena and surrounding development is keeping this city afloat, its not the only factor but a large one nonetheless…As far as the Seattle stunt, it’s like showing a group of smokers the black lungs of a dead person…And then offering to sell them all nicorette gum…Katz profits off the gum, but everyone quits smoking and has an improved quality of life…Then it turns out, by pure fluke, the nicorette cures the emphysima, COPD, and lung cancer already present in the long time hardcore smokers (that’s the mcdavid part of the analogy)

  84. spoiler says:

    stevezie:
    spoiler,

    I think there’s a pretty big difference between Landeskog and Hall. I’m open to being corrected.

    This is not an argument in his favour. He didn’t make EIG an offer they couldn’t refuse to be nice. He saw a chance to make millions and he took it. Which is kind of fair, but does not make him sympathetic.

    I’ll take a shot…

    1. Part of the deal is do the Oil have something worth more than Landeskog other than Hall, if Larsson has value to them? According to NJ, no.

    2. There is no such thing as absolute market value, all value is subjective

    3. Diminishing marginal returns comes into play, as does shortages in critical needs. Snow to an Eskimo, water to man dying of thirst.

    4. The difference between Hall and Landeskog is what got us Larsson over the Avs

    5. A #1 vs. a #2 overall. Landy contract $500k less for a year longer. He’s missed 18 games in his career due to injury. Hall has missed 77. Since 2011 at EVs, Landy is 50.5 FF%. Hall is 49.2. Outscoring (GFON60-GAON60)… Landy is 0.53, Hall is 0.13.

    6. Hall beats Landeskog in sheer offense, and in skating. Landeskog is better in his own end and bigger, more physical. NJ is on record saying they were looking to upgrade speed and offense which is likely why Hall was chosen over Landeskog.

  85. Centre of attention says:

    stevezie:
    kgo,

    My empathy tells me he was leveraging the city’s emotional connection to a sports team that’s been around for decades in an effort to squeeze them for every dime he could get.

    “Nice team you’ve got here. Shame if something were to…. “happen” to it.”

    If / when the Oilers win a cup, we’ll be thanking the gords that Katz could spend to the cap.

    Having cash is a big damned deal in the NHL. It’s really hard to push yourself over the top without it. Obviously budget teams do have success but money makes things smoother.

    There would be no way for the Oilers to keep all of McDavid, Drai, Nurse, Lucic, Klef/Larsson, Sekera, Puljujarvi under the cap long term. Never mind everybody else those are just a few names. Money talks.

  86. kinger_OIL says:

    – I will probably post this again, because its at the end of a thread. I had been talking about in Backgammon, the use of snowie, to evalute and redefine backgammon. Snowie evaluates at the end of each game:
    1) how lucky/unlucky you were
    2) how lucky/unlucky your opponent was
    3) what % of optimal each player played
    4) how easy/hard the game was to play based on moves of opponent
    5) also highlighted each big change in equity in the game, as a result of great or terrible moves
    6) Each player gets a “rating” based on above factors

    – Staples in his most recent article refers to “major mistakes on Grade A chances”

    – I don’t know how he comes up with this, but this is the kind of thing that needs to be incorporated into analysis of a player. All corsi and fenwick don’t have the same impact. A really great move that results in a deke and a goal is the same +1 corsi as a weak wrister shot from the point.

    – Same for defence: when a D really makes a bad play, that clearly results in a goal (or awesome chance), that results in a huge swing in “equity”

    – Football has a QB rating: interceptions affect rating a lot more than an incomplete pass. A shot that hits the post isn’t even a corsi

    – We don’t have measures in hockey to differentiate between a good and bad play: they are all measured equally.

  87. treevojo says:

    The only trade that I view negatively by Chia with Edmonton is the Reinhart trade.

    It caught me off guard at the time and I wasn’t all that familiar with how he had been progressing. At this time it is looking like a loss. But you never know.

    The Hall trade caught me off guard as well and I thought there must have been a pick coming with Larsson. I was very familiar with what Hall brought (positive and negative). Hadn’t seen much of Larsson at all. So far I like what I see (as well as the length and cost of contracts) and I don’t view the trade as a loss at this time.

    Chiarelli’s worst trade by far and it’s not even close is the Seguin trade.

    He traded 5 years of Seguin for 2 years of Eriksson.

    That is laughable.

    I hope he had his arm being held behind his back and had no choice on that one. Indefensible.

  88. Lloyd B. says:

    oscarmike: There’s no way Jets keep Myers over Trouba.
    Trouba isn’t perfect. He makes some bad mistakes.

    Oscar for Myers

    That could be seen as a weenie of a trade.

  89. Bruce McCurdy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Huh? Did I miss something?

    My point was that judging a GM’s entire track record on his worst trade is like judging a team’s season on its worst game. It can’t help but be skewed to the negative, regardless of what else may have been accomplished.

  90. PhrankLee says:

    Having Shattenkirk would allow Larsson to Larsson.

    He has one of the best first passes in the game. Imagine someone good enough to hit Connor in full stride more times than not….let that sink in for those looking for zone entry with possession.

    He is an accomplished PP wizard, RHS #1-2 D.

    Haven’t looked but his I expect his primary assists to be substantial.

    He is 27. He will need a raise but he will top out at under 6.

    I would love to have him parachute into the top of the pairings.

    RHD:
    Shattenkirk
    Larsson
    Benning

    Shiny.

    Here are the articles he wrote for Players Tribune on elite D.

    http://www.theplayerstribune.com/elite-defensemen-101-kevin-shattenkirk-nhl/

  91. frjohnk says:

    PhrankLee:
    Having Shattenkirk would allow Larsson to Larsson.

    He has one of the best first passes in the game. Imagine someone good enough to hit Connor in full stride more times than not….let that sink in for those looking for zone entry with possession.

    He is an accomplished PP wizard, RHS #1-2 D.

    Haven’t looked but his I expect his primary assists to be substantial.

    He is 27. He will need a raise but he will top out at under 6.

    I would love to have him parachute into the top of the pairings.

    RHD:
    Shattenkirk
    Larsson
    Benning

    Shiny.

    Here are the articles he wrote for Players Tribune on elite D.

    http://www.theplayerstribune.com/elite-defensemen-101-kevin-shattenkirk-nhl/

    Shattenkirk would check off a lot of boxes but

    Part of the issue going for a guy like Shattenkirk is that the Oilers prospect cupboard is quite bare.

    and Shattenkirk will probably fetch a 1st, and two other pieces. If the Blues are trading Shattenkirk, it means they are “retooling” and players/prospects that are ineligible to be picked in the expansion would have more value than in previous years.
    Our prospect pool
    NHL- Benning, Sleppy, Cags
    AHL- JP ( he aint going anywhere) Reinhart ( dont think he has much value because he has to be exposed)
    CHL- Jones ( probably most value of jr prospects) Benson ( injury worries hurt his value) Bear
    Europe- Paigin ( almost 22, was last year an outlier? will he come over?)

    Blues would want something like our 1st, maybe Caleb Jones and Sleppy. Maybe its our 1st and Benning. ( Woodguy would lose it)

    Regardless, no way in hell we can afford to further deplete our prospect pool.

  92. treevojo says:

    Lloyd B.,

    I see what u did there

  93. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bruce McCurdy: My point was that judging a GM’s entire track record on his worst trade is like judging a team’s season on its worst game. It can’t help but be skewed to the negative, regardless of what else may have been accomplished.

    Understood. Thanks. I don’t think I am judging it on one trade. I was arguing for looking at the totality of the record and argued Chia is an okay GM. Not amazing. Not horrible.

    In isolation, yeah the Reinhart trade is bad but I am not judging Chia solely on any one thing.

  94. treevojo says:

    Bruce McCurdy: My point was that judging a GM’s entire track record on his worst trade is like judging a team’s season on its worst game. It can’t help but be skewed to the negative, regardless of what else may have been accomplished.

    So I’m not allowed to judge chiarelli’s tenure in Edmonton based on the Seguin trade?

    I guess I will have to put the pitch fork away until the Mcdavid trade!

  95. bbf_iii says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – I will probably post this again, because its at the end of a thread.I had been talking about in Backgammon, the use of snowie, to evalute and redefine backgammon.Snowie evaluates at the end of each game:
    1) how lucky/unlucky you were
    2) how lucky/unlucky your opponent was
    3) what % of optimal each player played
    4) how easy/hard the game was to play based on moves of opponent
    5) also highlighted each big change in equity in the game, as a result of great or terrible moves
    6) Each player gets a “rating” based on above factors

    – Staples in his most recent article refers to “major mistakes on Grade A chances”

    – I don’t know how he comes up with this, but this is the kind of thing that needs to be incorporated into analysis of a player.All corsi and fenwick don’t have the same impact.A really great move that results in a deke and a goal is the same +1 corsi as a weak wrister shot from the point.

    – Same for defence: when a D really makes a bad play, that clearly results in a goal (or awesome chance), that results in a huge swing in “equity”

    – Football has a QB rating: interceptions affect rating a lot more than an incomplete pass.A shot that hits the post isn’t even a corsi

    – We don’t have measures in hockey to differentiate between a good and bad play: they are all measured equally.

    Corsi is not meant to be an all encompassing stat for hockey. It’s just that teams with a high Corsi For % tend to win more. The value of Corsi is that it is more predictive of future success than a lot of other measures (like past wins, goal differential, etc.). You are correct that in a very small sample of comparing one Corsi event to another there isn’t much value, but that was never the purpose. This flaw does not change the fact that good possession teams tend to win more, even if your analysis doesn’t account for shot/chance quality. There are definitely times where a team has good possession numbers but the issues you’ve identified sink their ability to win (think those early Dallas Eakins Oilers where they tried that aggressive swarm and left the slot open all the time). However, overall teams with good possession tend to have more quality shots too just due to the sheer number of total shot attempts.

    Also, a shot that hits the post counts as a missed shot and definitely counts as a Corsi event.

    Last, the issue that a lot of people have with Staples’ scoring error numbers is that he only calculates the errors when his idea of a Grade A chance occurs. The problem is that most errors/good plays made by players don’t actually end up in Grade A chances, making the sample size really small and potentially not reflective of a player. For example, if Player A makes one mistake all game and it ends up in a Grade A chance, but Player B makes a ton of mistakes but the opposing team can’t get it together and never gets an ensuing chance, this isn’t reflected in the analysis. Goals and Grade A scoring chances are, relative to other events, very rare over the course of a hockey game and focusing only on mistakes when those events happen doesn’t capture a lot of other things that contribute to a player’s value.

  96. PhrankLee says:

    frjohnk,

    Yup. Agreed.

    I personally think the Oilers will be sellers at the deadline and not buyers.

    We must, absolutely must get some picks.

    I can still dream about it. He has what I am looking for: elite first pass forehand to forehand pass with CMD on the fly.

    As amazing as he is we have nobody to deliver him that pass on this team.

    Entry game would change if teams knew they needed to defend the stretch because it wasn’t so much of a gamble any more. It was a stone kold killer.

    Headman pass is a weapon the Oilers do not currently have.

  97. frjohnk says:

    PhrankLee: I personally think the Oilers will be sellers at the deadline and not buyers.

    I think they use the “inhouse rentals” such as Russell, Gryba and Hendricks. They like Russell in the top 4 and Gryba and Hendricks give them depth. Also, they are the type “built for playoff hockey cause of grits” so I dont see any of our 3 UFA’s sold off.

    Unless the Oilers faceplant from here to the deadline, I dont see them being sellers. If they were in the race and become sellers, imagine the pitchforks.

  98. treevojo says:

    PhrankLee,

    If the Oilers are sellers at the deadline I will lose my shit.

    I may be in the minority but I believe this team is a couple decent deadline moves from contending this year.

    Stud goalie ☑️

    Defensive depth ☑️

    Best forward in the game☑️

    Find a couple high sh% fwds to push down under performers and give forward depth and we could make a real push this year without mortgaging the future.

  99. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Trade balance sheet (let me know if I am missing anything)

    Traded assets:
    Hall, Yakupov, Marincin, Schultz, Purcell, Scrivens, Ewanyk,16th, 33rd, 57th, 79th, 93rd, 107th,184th

    Acquired assets:
    Larsson, Talbot, Reinhart, Gryba, Maroon, Kassian, 83rd, 91st, 204th, and a third this year (roughly 73rd)

    My grade? C+

    If you add the assets going out, I think the value is greater than the value of assets coming in.

    I hear your arguments that the team has more balance and the D is better. But as far as trading asset for asset goes, if I have a Lamborghini, two Ferraris that need a bit of fixing up and a Pagani Zonda in my garage and I trade the two Ferraris for a Land Rover Defender and a Jeep Wrangler my garage has more balance. Did it take a brilliant mind to make those trades when you have that kind of assets to trade?

    Nope.

    Next I will review his signings later, but I rate them much higher:
    Sekera, Benning, Gryba, Russell to start

    That alone is B+/A- material.

    When I look at the totality of his record, that puts Chia firmly in B territory for me. Much better than MacT or Tambo, but I am not handing him the keys to trade my portfolio without checking with me first (if I am his boss).

  100. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    PhrankLee:
    frjohnk,

    Hedman pass is a weapon the Oilers do not currently have.

    FTFY

  101. PhrankLee says:

    frjohnk: Unless the Oilers faceplant from here to the deadline, I dont see them being sellers. If they were in the race and become sellers, imagine the pitchforks.

    Yes well I do not expect them to collapse. But I also do not expect them to compete for the division title this year.

    WC spot at best, imho. The upcoming gigantic home stand will decide this, I believe.

    I, for one, would not scorch the earth at the deadline but there are some guys we have that could get us what we really really need: 2nd round picks. I want 2 2nd rounder so I can trade one at the draft.

    It’s time to correct what has been an historically terrible record for the Oilers. 2nd round draft picks.

  102. stevezie says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Well, not exactly. Each game is, by definition, of equal importantance to every other. A GMs worst trade could easily be more important than every other move he makes.

    “Darling, i don’t understand why you choose to focus onthe day with the cocktail waitress. That’s just one day! Think of all the good things i did!”

    The guy’s not exactly wrong, but I’m not sure it’ll save him.

    An over the top example i know. I agree with you that it’s how he does on the balance of all his moves. This was actually the point of the post i wrote which it appears you were responding to?

  103. russ99 says:

    I don’t think we need to worry too much about who plays and sits at D, injury will allow us to utilize 8 defensemen over the course of a season, and this year has proven the worth of a Gryba and Oesterle to fill in.

    I see this for next season, assuming Russell is signed and we trade or lose Davidson to Vegas, which seems pretty firm so far:

    Sekera – Larsson
    Klefbom – Russell
    Nurse – Benning

    Cheap veteran FA – Oesterle

    I don’t see a move for that prototypical RH point shot D, since other than Shattenkirk (who’s signing East) UFA are slim pickings, and the only assets GMs will want in return are kids we need to keep.

    As for the minors, the lack of projectable skill that can help inexpensively after McDavid’s ELC could lead to a flush of many players and Chia turning to college FAs to replenish.

    From LT’s list, I’d suspect only Khaira and Oesterle are safe, and maybe LaLeggia if he can show enough in his new position – along with Reinhart, since they need to get something back when they inevitably move him, akin to what Chicago got for Cam Barker.

    Allen and Currie look to have hit their ceilings, so that’s also maybe if they can sign a two-way deal.

  104. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Trade balance sheet (let me know if I am missing anything)

    Traded assets:
    Hall, Yakupov, Marincin, Schultz, Purcell, Scrivens, Ewanyk,16th, 33rd, 57th, 79th, 93rd, 107th,184th

    Acquired assets:
    Larsson, Talbot, Reinhart, Gryba, Maroon, Kassian, 83rd, 91st, 204th, anda third this year (roughly 73rd)

    My grade?C+

    If you add the assets going out, I think the value is greater than the value of assets coming in.

    I hear your arguments that the team has more balance and the D is better. But as far as trading asset for asset goes, if I have a Lamborghini, two Ferraris that need a bit of fixing up and a Pagani Zonda in my garage and I trade the two Ferraris for a Land Rover Defender and a Jeep Wrangler my garage has more balance. Did it take a brilliant mind to make those trades when you have that kind of assets to trade?

    Nope.

    Next I will review his signings later, but I rate them much higher:
    Sekera, Benning, Gryba, Russell to start

    That alone is B+/A- material.

    When I look at the totality of his record, that puts Chia firmly in B territory for me. Much better than MacT or Tambo, but I am not handing him the keys to trade my portfolio without checking with me first (if I am his boss).

    LT,

    When it finally comes time to post the mythical balance picture, just go ahead and post a picture of this comment.

  105. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    PhrankLee,

    Chia has traded lots of picks away for sure. Attempt to accelerate the rebuild. Let’s hope his bets pan out as prospect cupboard is looking thin.

  106. PhrankLee says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    Yes. Nailbitingly so.

  107. stevezie says:

    frjohnk,

    Shattenkirk is so perfect that I suspect if he was willing to sign here the deal would already be done. I agree we can’t deplete for a rental.

    Centre of attention,

    This is certainly true, but I don’t think spending to the cap requires hollow threats of moving the team. Plus, if the Oilers ever win the cup Katz will be making money by the wheelbarrow.

    spoiler,

    You may be right.

  108. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Who exactly are the two Ferrari’s that got traded? Hall yes, but if the 2nd is Yakupov (my other guess would be the picks for GR and on that one I’m gonna fault the scouts as much as Chia) I can’t disagree more. Yak may figure it out one day (ala Mr. Schultz) but at the moment there is no reputable hockey fan/watcher/analyst that would classify him as a Ferrari.

  109. stevezie says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: LT,

    When it finally comes time to post the mythical balance picture, just go ahead and post a picture of this comment.

    Your comment implies you don’t understand his- or are at least not giving it much consideration. “Balance” is good, not god.

  110. stevezie says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Schultz is one area in which I am willing to cut Chia all kinds of slack. I’m kind of surprised more peple aren’t angry about that trade in light of the season he is having now. I guess we all remember watching him play too clearly.

  111. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    It was not meant as one Ferrari equals one player. Generally speaking.

    So I was not even saying Hall = a Ferrari. Just high pedigree assets (1st, Schultz, Yak, Hall as a collective)

    Sports cars for SUVs.

  112. russ99 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    It was not meant as one Ferrari equals one player. Generally speaking.

    So I was not even saying Hall = a Ferrari. Just high pedigree assets (1st, Schultz, Yak, Hall as a collective)

    Sports cars for SUVs.

    You can’t blame Chiarelli when previous regimes’ mismanagement devalued our Ferrari’s down to the level of a beat up old Dodge.

  113. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Trade balance sheet (let me know if I am missing anything)

    Traded assets:
    Hall, Yakupov, Marincin, Schultz, Purcell, Scrivens, Ewanyk,16th, 33rd, 57th, 79th, 93rd, 107th,184th

    Acquired assets:
    Larsson, Talbot, Reinhart, Gryba, Maroon, Kassian, 83rd, 91st, 204th, anda third this year (roughly 73rd)

    My grade?C+

    If you add the assets going out, I think the value is greater than the value of assets coming in.

    I hear your arguments that the team has more balance and the D is better. But as far as trading asset for asset goes, if I have a Lamborghini, two Ferraris that need a bit of fixing up and a Pagani Zonda in my garage and I trade the two Ferraris for a Land Rover Defender and a Jeep Wrangler my garage has more balance. Did it take a brilliant mind to make those trades when you have that kind of assets to trade?

    Nope.

    Next I will review his signings later, but I rate them much higher:
    Sekera, Benning, Gryba, Russell to start

    That alone is B+/A- material.

    When I look at the totality of his record, that puts Chia firmly in B territory for me. Much better than MacT or Tambo, but I am not handing him the keys to trade my portfolio without checking with me first (if I am his boss).

    Balance sheet so far

    2 NHL players going out

    5 NHL players coming in

  114. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    russ99: You can’t blame Chiarelli when previous regimes’ mismanagement devalued our Ferrari’s down to the level of a beat up old Dodge.

    Hmm. Point me to where I blamed Chia for that? I did say he was miles better than MacT and Tambo. I also said in a prior post that a lot of the responsibility for this lies with his predecessors. Chia inherited a decimated D group and got to work on fixing it. I gave him a nod for acknowledging a problem MacT did not recognize.

    Man, it is not like I am even giving Chia a bad grade. He gets a B so far from me. Why is it that you all make it out to be like “you’re either with him or against him.”

    There is a middle ground here. I am in the middle.

  115. who says:

    I love how everyone wants to spend our 1st round pick AND prospects for a three month rental of Shattenkirk, a third pairing Dman with a good power play resume.
    Oh, and apparently he would be the only dman on our team who can make a stretch pass. PLEASE!

  116. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo: Balance sheet so far

    2 NHL players going out

    5 NHL players coming in

    Well that is not helpful. Come on. Quantity is not the name of the game.

    You have to look at both quality and quantity.

    Otherwise I could trade my first overall pick for the next ten 7th rounders of the Pittsuburgh Penguins.

    One pick going out.

    10 picks coming in.

    I am a hero?

    Come on now.

  117. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I would argue that it has been helpful to the teams record this year.

  118. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    stevezie,

    Nah, I’m not in any way regretful for that move. It was time to move on for both parties. Good for him that he found an excellent spot to ply his trade and I’m glad that he has turned it around but the team and the division weren’t right for him and that happens. No tear here, same with Marincin.

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Fair enough and I generally agree

  119. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    It was not meant as one Ferrari equals one player. Generally speaking.

    So I was not even saying Hall = a Ferrari. Just high pedigree assets (1st, Schultz, Yak, Hall as a collective)

    Sports cars for SUVs.

    Yak and Shultz were extremely diminished assets at the time chia got his hands on them.

    Hard to blame him for that.

    Ferraris that had been T-boned by 18 wheelers.

  120. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I would argue that it has been helpful to the teams record this year.

    And you could well be right.

    If you just want to look at one year and count the number of NHL players in the lineup now then sure.

    But if you are looking at the totality of the record you can’t just look at this year alone.

    I could improve by that metric if I traded our 1st rounder right now for Brouwwr. He is an NHL player. Might improve our 4th line this year.

    Is that how you want to assess my abilities as GM?

    And for crying out loud I am calling Chia an average GM. What is wrong with that? In my opinion he has done well on signings and not well on trades. Drafting remains to be seen but he has spent a lot of his picks.

  121. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo: Yak and Shultz were extremely diminished assets at the time chia got his hands on them.

    Hard to blame him for that.

    Ferraris that had been T-boned by a 18 wheelers.

    Point me to where I blamed Chia for the trainwreck he inherited? I never have done so.

  122. frjohnk says:

    who: I love how everyone wants to spend our 1st round pick AND prospects for a three month rental of Shattenkirk,

    yes EVERYONE

  123. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Easy.

    I am just commenting on the now.

    Not trying to come at you personally.

    Not making any grand statements.

  124. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo,

    No worries. I didn’t think you were coming at me personally.

    Just trying to make the point that there is a 3rd option beyond:

    Chia is amazing or Chia sucks, as Kinger and others suggest.

    Can we not like some Chia moves, hate others and conclude he is an okay GM, much better than his predecessors but not without his flaws, too?

  125. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Ya absolutely

    That’s what this place is for.

    Healthy debate.

    How about this?

    Talbot has more value to an NHL team then Taylor Hall.

    What does that do to the balance sheet?

  126. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo,

    I am at work now so can’t respond as thoroughly but I would say that is a very nuanced, interesting take that makes a much more compelling discussion than a quanitity for quantity argument. Kudos.

    Let me get back to you.

  127. spoiler says:

    I wrote several hours ago that we know from Economics that value is subjective.

    The end of this thread is excellent proof of that statement.

  128. YKOil says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    kinger_OIL,
    You have made this point several times but I have to say I totally disagree with you on this one.

    It is not binary.

    I, and many others belong to a 3rd camp you fail to mention.

    Chia is an okay/middle-of-the-pack GM. He does well on small trades and acquisitions: Russell, Benning, Kassian, Talbot. He has done a little worse on some bigger trades.
    Overall he has been okay, which is far better than past 10 years.

    My read is much the same with the twist that I think PC loses the deal (whatever that is) when he feels he HAS to do something. No pressure on the smaller deals means he makes better deals but when the pressure is applied (from PC’s own end of it) other GM’s know he will work to close a deal, almost any deal, and that is when the better ones take advantage.

    The signing of Gus and Korpiskoski is really, to my mind, just the work of a GM – and they all do these small deal things – who signs one of ‘their’ guys or a ‘guy they have always liked’ every now and then. Wish it hurt less but they all do it so its hard for me to get too worked up about it.

    Still a far better GM than anything we have had since Sather and Lowe-pre-2007.

    10 effing years. I had to completely disengage at one point or grown man tears.

    Shattenkirk… not a fan of craziness in terms of either assets to secure or cap space to pay out. Here’s hoping PC doesn’t feel like he HAS to do this one.

  129. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    spoiler:
    I wrote several hours ago thatwe know from Economics that value is subjective.

    The end of this thread is excellent proof of that statement.

    This sums it up nicely. If you feel Talbot is more valuable to this team than Hall it is hard to argue that. If that is the trade in question then that is one thing, but my whole point was not to judge Chia on one trade but to judge the whole as best I can.

    Is my process flawed? Yup. Not perfect But I neither blindly praise nor blindly hate Chia.

    He inherited an awful D group and he has improved it. In order to do so he traded away some pretty good chips. Is that his “fault?” No. Definitely not.

    But he had to get those right, especially considering the value he gave up. Otherwise, as LT says, his job would have been in jeopardy. Not that I have ever called for Chia to be fired.

    Like I said, for me his trading is a C+, his drafting is still incomplete but his signings are A-. And yeah, agree I really like the Talbot deal and liked it from the start. I love the Sekera signing too. A lot.

    I thought a B was not a bad grade. Anyway my whole point was to dispel Kinger’s notion that there are only two camps/viewpoints on Chiarelli. I don’t think that is giving credit to this fanbase.

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