UNKNOWN PLEASURES

I scored my first NHL goal when I was 10, Bobby Orr sent me a brilliant pass and I drove into the Montreal zone and went shelf. It wasn’t at the Forum, or the Garden, but it was sweet all the same. There is something about a first NHL goal that speaks to all of us—the one hockey dream shared universally—no matter your team allegiance. Welcome, Jujhar Khaira, to a very exclusive club. It was a nice one, too.

DISORDER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 5-3-0, goal differential -1
  • Oilers after 46, 2015-16: 18-23-5, goal differential -27
  • Oilers after 46, 2016-17: 24-15-7, goal differential +9

The Oilers are accomplishing what we set out for them in January, and I think we should acknowledge what has been a solid two weeks for the team. Here is the original expectation, updated for games already in the books.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • On the road to: Columbus, Boston, New Jersey, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-1) (Actual: 2-2-0)
  • At home to: San Jose, New Jersey, Calgary, Arizona, Florida, Nashville (Expected Result: 3-1-2) (So Far: 3-1-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected Result: 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected Result: 0-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-3, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current Results: 5-3-0, 10 points in eight games

They are slightly behind my projection, but there is time and winning five of eight games to start the month gives Edmonton a chance to get some real clearance between themselves and the Flames/Kings. Whatever happens from here, we reached mid-January with a full tank of gas and good winter driving conditions.

PIKES PEAK

There is some clean air now for Edmonton, the Flames really needed that game on Saturday. Of course, a win in the Saddledome this weekend makes things better, but at this point the northern town is looking good. The Los Angeles Kings keep stumbling, and Vancouver is just going to have a terrible time keeping this pace.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera—Russell went 13-10 together, had some difficult moments but also used veteran savvy to wiggle out of trouble. Each man was +1, and Sekera is so good in the offensive end it is one of my favorite parts of the team. Sekera blocked a shot off his wrist/arm/groin area depending on who you listen to, and that could be very bad news for Edmonton. Light a candle. Went 6-6 in 5:43 against the Hanzal line.
  • Davidson—Benning went 9-8 together and were definitely the third pairing. I like the duo, and wonder how much of the task this tandem could fill when Davidson is healthy. Very mobile, a little undersized, but smart and great passers. Interesting pairing. Went 2-2 in 1:28 against the Hanzal line.
  • Klefbom—Larsson went 7-12 together in 16:28, a very large slice of the game. Larsson got an assist and Klefbom hit the post, and they blocked six shots between them. They played well to my eye, a late wobble might have cost them but the Coyote couldn’t cash. Went 4-4 in 4:37 against the Hanzal line.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 20 of 21, .952.
  • Numbers via HockeyStats.ca, NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Khaira—Letestu—Kassian went 7-3 together and got lots of good things done. Kassian had his good boots on, and Khaira is faster than Hendricks, so the No. 4 train was rolling down the tracks faster than we have seen most times this season. All three men were involved in Khaira’s goal, one of the nice moments this season. This went went 3-4 in 2:58 against the Martin Hanzal line.
  • Lucic—Caggiula—Slepyshev went 10-8 together and I thought they were close to clicking a few times. This is a tough line for ML, he is working with two rookies. Still, you would think there would be some offense for a line that faces softer oppositon, but just two shots. Slepyshev had some looks but passed on shooting at least once, and Lucic ran out of gas on a promising sortie.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle looked like last year’s trio, some really promising shifts from this line. Nuge scored, Eberle had an assist and Pouliot back checked like a demon. Huge positive arrow. A monster. Line went 12-10 together, 5-5 in 6:09 against the Hanzal line.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl had a tough time in possession, Leon scoring on a nice pass from 97 but that was one sweet move by the big man. Went 1-4 in 1:36 against the Hanzal line, but for me it looked like there were plenty of promising moments but the finish was lacking compared to normal. This line remains golden in my eyes.

That was a nice goal. Jesse Puljujarvi is now 4gp, 1-3-4 and continues on his merry way in the minors. I think we will see him again this season, possibly around the trade deadline. His PP usage will be something worth following for the next six weeks, and of course we can discuss where he will play upon return. Right now, the 1R and 2R slots appear to be occupied by productive players.

BROSSOIT OR GO SHOPPING?

I think there are members of Oilers management who want to give Laurent Brossoit a chance, but I wonder if the head coach does. Also, LB is not a Peter Chiarelli guy, and my experience in watching general managers is that does make a difference. Let’s compare Brossoit to a readily available goalie also playing in the AHL:

  • Laurent Brossoit: 21gp, 2.67 .908 with the Bakersfield Condors
  • Reta Berra: 19gp, 2.15 .921 with the Springfield Falcons

Brossoit is having a good season save for three poor outings around Christmas, but if you are Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan, maybe you wait on the prospect until the fall and grab a backup with NHL experience. Fair? I think it is probably worth consideration. Adding to the decision? A decidedly uneven NHL audition last year, suspect there is a hesitancy to trust such an important season to an inexperienced hand.

An extremely frustrating situation for all involved, especially considering Benson is having a solid year. Steve Ewen from the Vancouver Province discusses possible connections to last year’s injury here, including a quote from the player. Benson is an excellent prospect, and plays in an area of need, but he must remain healthy.

OILERS FORWARD PROSPECTS NHLE 2016-17

Benson’s good year is encouraging for the Oilers depth chart, and that LW situation badly needs him to come through for the club. Here are NHLEs (junior, college, minor, Euro) for all substantial Oilers forward prospects at this time.

  1. R Anton Slepyshev 13-30-43
  2. R Jesse Puljujarvi 10-29-39
  3. C Tyler Vesel 21-17-38
  4. C-L Jujhar Khaira 11-18-29
  5. L Tyler Benson 6-22-28
  6. C Aapeli Rasanen 4-14-18
  7. C Bogdan Yakimov 5-8-13

For me, the only lock for successful NHL employment on this list is Jesse Puljujarvi, but the Oilers need many more prospects pushing. There are basically five men in the entire system who we can reasonably suggest are on track this season as NHL prospects. One of them (Vesel) may not be signed (we haven’t seen or heard much on him), Benson has injury issues, and as much as I like Anton Slepyshev the numbers may not rhyme for him once JP is here and producing. That leaves Khaira, who looks NHL-ready, and Benson. Razor thin, ladies and men. Razor thin.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

Three things:

  • The 2013 draft, MacT’s first, looked like a very intelligent selection at the time. The scouts told him trading down and adding more picks was the right thing to do, and that’s what he did. Unfortunately, the second rounder (Marco Roy) did not take the next step offensively, and Bogdan Yakimov balked at AHL time and took off for the Russian Riviera. Only Anton Slepyshev, a pretty good prospect, looks like he could land. Added to first-round selection Darnell Nurse, the 2013 draft looks (we still have some track) like a slightly below average trip for Edmonton.
  • The 2014 draft, MacT’s last, is the most curious edition of the century. It looks like the Oilers felt their prospect cupboard was teeming with talent, and they chose to pick prospects who would not turn pro in 2016. After Leon Draisaitl, William Lagesson and Zach Nagelvoort, the Oilers spent the back half of the draft going walkabout. There are four NHL players already chosen after Nagelvoort, all of whom played in the CHL, Sweden or Czech leagues considered fertile ground. It was a weird draft.
  • The 2015 draft, while offering Connor McDavid and several promising defenders, also purchased Griffin Reinhart, Cam Talbot and Eric Gryba for the big league team. In other words, having no trade-worthy assets in the AHL or fringe NHL, PC was forced to trade strong picks in a golden draft to get where he wanted to go in the rebuild.
  • The 2016 draft looks good, but is also developing a worry a week. Jesse Puljujarvi is in the minors, Tyler Benson isn’t playing currently.

The NHLE list above has to be of concern to Peter Chiarelli. He added college men by the score last spring and may be forced to do it again—just to keep pace with other NHL teams who will be graduating enormous talents from the 2015 selection. I think it too early to judge that draft, or the 2016, but the last truly strong draft by Edmonton was 2011 (Nuge, Klefbom, Rieder) and even that one was flawed because the club couldn’t sign Rieder.

All of which is to say the following: Entering the trade deadline, Peter Chiarelli must add draft picks, because this team is in dire need of improved depth in the prospect area. I am not as down on his performance in Edmonton as many are, and will give credit for Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula and even Matt Ellis (although who knows what they have there), but the procurement of amateur talent must continue unabated. Miles and miles to go for the Edmonton Oilers, the mistakes of the last decade—no minor league team, second-round black hole, challenging Petry, not signing Rieder—all contributing to the current situation.

On the want side, I would love to see Duchene, Hanzal, Vanek, Landeskog, Vrbata and even Shattenkirk as Oilers, but overpaying for a rental is insane, so the defender is off the list. The presence of Eberle is interesting, it may indicate Peter Chiarelli has his eye on a free agent or highly priced RW currently on another roster. I did a 20 for the Oilers post at New Years, it is here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A list of guests still coming together, it all starts at 10 on TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from Oilers Nation will be live at 10:20, and Scott Cullen of TSN will join us at 11:05. The rest is out in the ether, will update as I am able.

 

 

 

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169 Responses to "UNKNOWN PLEASURES"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    Eberle isn’t going anywhere. You would have to bet against him returning to form and he is still a veteran that is useful in the playoffs. His value is low at the moment, rumblings of needing surgery and the Oilers are looking to add pieces via prospects and picks and duplicated players for a playoff run (that sounds weird, quick LT, do a prospect piece!).

    Hendricks could be gone, but I suspect Ebs would be dealt in the summer, if at all.

  2. N64 says:

    LT, 3 pts out of Florida and Nashville and they’ll be right at your expectations for the first 10.

  3. N64 says:

    First game Benson was held back was against the Oil Kings. Hope the Oil staff are following up whatever they saw.

    For anyone wondering why the trajectory around pubis injuries get so darn complicated:

    http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/dr-william-meyers-gets-right-to-the-core-of-athletes-injuries-120215

    “We saw that the anatomy down there in the pelvis was a lot different from the way we’d been taught, and there was a lot more to it,” Meyers said, detailing one particular experiment where his team discovered that the rectus abdominus muscle (abs) and adductor muscles (inner thigh) are connected via the pubic bone, which essentially acted as a joint.

    …”It’s your transmission, and that’s what helps keeps the pressure off your arms and legs,” Meyers said. “It’s really key to how your extremities work, and when you analyze it more, the muscles that attach to the pubic bone are sort of your harness, your bridle, your reins. Your athleticism comes from shifting from one side to the other, and the way you move is directly connected to that mechanism. That’s where you harness your power from all the big muscles, so there’s a lot to it.”

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings via games above or below the last playoff spot:

    MIN 15
    CHI 9
    ANA 7
    SJS 5
    EDM 4
    STL 3
    LAK 1
    NSH 0
    —————
    CGY -1
    VAN -3
    DAL -4
    WPG -6
    ARI -14
    COL -18

    Games tonight:

    DAL @ NYR
    OTT @ STL
    NJD @ MIN
    CHI @ COL
    FLA @ CGY
    NSH @ VAN
    TBY @ ANA

    TBY did us a favour beating LAK last night, hopefully they can do it again tonight against ANA.

    I’m also a FLA (computer boys!! Demers!!) fan and a Dys (*hack*) fan tonight as well.

    Would be nice to see OTT take down STL as well.

    Need more clean air below EDM.

  5. Diesel says:

    Who on this earth watched that Puljujarvi goal and characterized it as flipping? That was a flipping bullet.

  6. khildahl says:

    Something caught my eye at the game last night that I haven’t seen mentioned… The team was all over the Coyotes in the neutral zone, forcing turnovers and transitioning really quickly.

    There was a stretch in the third where the Oilers had three two-on-ones without the puck ever reaching their own blue line.

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ran the Dman CF% numbers with and without McDavid this morning.

    Nice to see my boys Klef and Benning leading the charge.

    Oilers DMen have come a loooooooong way without McDavid compared to Nov when NO ONE was about 50% without him.

    I think that speaks to McLellan finding 3-4 lines that can win the CF% battle now.

    WITHOUT MCDAVID (5v5)

    Benning – 311min – 53.27%
    Klefbom – 489min – 52.28%
    Larsson – 507min – 50.56%
    Sekera – 448min – 49.94%
    Nurse – 269min – 49.22%
    Gryba – 237min – 49.19%
    Russell – 428min – 46.33%

    WITH MCDAVID

    I think the results here are driven by McDavid feasting on the guys the 3rd pairing Dmen usually see

    Gryba – 109min – 65.24%
    Nurse – 111min – 63.05%
    Benning – 156min – 59.08%
    Klefbom – 231min – 53.49%
    Sekera – 250min – 53.35%
    Larsson – 250min – 51.63%
    Russell – 241min – 48.51%

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    khildahl:
    Something caught my eye at the game last night that I haven’t seen mentioned…The team was all over the Coyotes in the neutral zone, forcing turnovers and transitioning really quickly.

    There was a stretch in the third where the Oilers had three two-on-ones without the puck ever reaching their own blue line.

    I noticed that too.

    I’m liking McLellan’s break out and neutral zone play more lately.

    Its more like PIT with the back pressure and “getting pucks to areas for the forwards to get it”

    I wasn’t digging it before, but the team seems to play it much better now.

    EDM is 7th in the NHL with a Score/Venue adjusted CF% of 51.87

    That’s pretty damn good.

  9. OilClog says:

    Ebs assisted on a Nuge shot that finally hit the net. That’s not producing in a manner that says your top6 RW position is secured.

    Ebs is a useful veteran for the playoffs? He’s never seen the playoffs, nor has his season inspired anything that should be putting that belief out there.

  10. stush18 says:

    I think we have enough depth right now that players will be moved, and we will protect 4-4-1 rather than 7-3-1.

    Nuge, drai, lucic, ebs, Klef, Larsson, sekera, Davidson. Talbot.

    Does it suck to lose maroon? Yes. He’s my fave oiler right now. But our current depth chart (by actual position) looks like

    Maroon-mcdavid-eberle
    Lucic-drai-JP
    Pouliot-nuge-pitlick
    Hendricks-letestu-kassian
    Cags-lander-slepy
    -JJ
    our defensive depth chart looks like

    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-benning
    Nurse-Davidson
    Reinhart-gryba

    IMHO our forward ranks can take a hit much easier than our defensive depth can. I wouldn’t consider any of our current d-prospects to be NHL ready or capable, save for musil or Simpson. And projecting them onto the current roster would be a mistake imo.

    Now this all depends on what happens at and leading up to the expansion draft. Perhaps pouliot is dealt, we protect 7-3-1, and this post was for nothing lol

    As it stands right now, I still value our defense over the forwards that need protecting

  11. Whatif says:

    When considering possible additions to the Oilers I really like the idea of Vrbata as a shooter.

    I also like the idea of adding either Montour or Barrie. To me, they would further strengthen our D corps. I’m just not sure what the price tag might be.

  12. fuzzy muppet says:

    Vrbata is the guy (at least for me) that the Oilers should be looking at. He’s inexpensive, can score goals and is a right handed shot.

    Doubtful he costs much to acquire and would likely fit in well on one of the PP units. They sorely lack that one-timer on the off wing.

  13. Scungilli says:

    Hey Woodguy, have you looked at Barrie this year? Corsica says he’s highest TOI on the Avs. I wonder if they could find a deal around Duchene and Barrie. My assumption is the Av’s looking for more two way types, although Landeskog rumours are out there.

    With so many players struggling and teams with expectations on the playoff bubble it seems like a good year to try and acquire some talent not always available. I’d be poking around Florida as well.

  14. fuzzy muppet says:

    Beat me to it.

    Montour is s intriguing. At one point this year he was leading the AHL in shots, as a defnseman. He could be exactly what they need. I have no idea what he would cost.

    Maybe Pouliot keeps gaining steam and becomes attractive again. He’s played very well the last two weeks. When he’s going, he is a forechecking demon. He’s actually more valuable in the playoffs but if he can bring in a Montour you’d think they have to do that.

    Whatif:
    When considering possible additions to the Oilers I really like the idea of Vrbata as a shooter.

    I also like the idea of adding either Montour or Barrie. To me, they would further strengthen our D corps. I’m just not sure what the price tag might be.

  15. Ducey says:

    Could not agree more that the Oilers need to keep stockpiling prospects.

    Most young teams get into the playoffs and get gonged the first time anyway. No need to trade future for present this year.

    Losing the 2nd for an executive who was fired is BS.

    Hopefully the experience of Benning and Caggiula will help recruit similar college players next year, as they will see they likely will get NHL time quickly.

  16. Ducey says:

    OilClog:
    Ebs assisted on a Nuge shot that finally hit the net. That’s not producing in a manner that says your top6 RW position is secured.

    Ebs is a useful veteran for the playoffs? He’s never seen the playoffs, nor has his season inspired anything that should be putting that belief out there.

    Ebs also rang one off the post, and got robbed by Smith on a breakaway.

    He is playing well and the goals will start coming soon.

  17. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Some Thoughts (the list will be brief but each entry a bit longer)

    1) I believe we are seeing the team mature at a very rapid pace right before our eyes. Now I know this seems like a strong statement but hear me out here. Going back two weeks to the game in Jersey, I would say this was the 6th straight game that the Oilers “managed,” varying their style of play at different times, being patient in others and of course bending but not breaking in a few of those games. Yes there were a couple of warts in the San Jose game but the team fought back hard and Dadbot had a tough night in between the pipes. I expect the reigning W Conference champs to play well, and they did, but that shouldn’t distract from a solid effort after a tough 1st in that game. The ottawa game was a loss but look at the numbers and some of Condon’s saves and I’m sure everyone else who frequents this blog but lives out in Ottawa and went to the game will confirm the score was indicative of play.

    2) Now some will say, “all these teams suck/or the Oilers should be beating them so who cares?” Fair point except the Oilers haven’t been beating said teams for a decade. By using the term maturation its important we don’t substitute “perfection” if something goes slightly off kilter (case in point the Dogs PP goal last night or the loss to San Jose). There are so many subtle positive arrows that I actually find myself less excited/nervous at the start of each game these days. I suppose this is what happens when one finally begins to expect their team to do well, instead of being surprised when they do well. Again subtle change but one that Oilers fans have been waiting 10 years for.

    3) Dmen are starting to round into form in unison. Larsson seems to have gotten a bit more confident on his outlet passes and jumping up into plays. My guess is that he’s gotten the hang of TMac’s system at this point and the coach himself may have loosened the reigns with Nurse out for another month. Klef is seeing red goal lights these days, really liking his play in the o-zone of late and am loving the shooting barrage. Benning is magic, however he’s now had three straight games with what I would call a major brain fart leading to a HDSC or outright goal against. This is nitpicking, and I’m not trying to slag the guy in the least because this is a helluva rookie season he’s putting together, however I’d like to see a little bit more urgency in his play. Nothing extreme, no reinventing the wheel. but there are times when he seems to be channeling his inner Orr by “slowing the game down” which doesn’t exactly work unless you are Orr. Tiny details yes but if he can iron them out he’ll be a better dman for it.

    4) Nuge-Ebs-Poo: Now that is more like it! Moar, Moar, Moar Please! When the levy breaks with this line shit is going to hit the fan (in a good way).

    5) Penalty kill: I have been clamouring for a few weeks that they up the pressure on puck-carriers on the PK, honestly gentlemen that doesn’t mean all four guys chase the carrier for crying out loud! Brainfart on that one aside, I’ve liked to mobility the PK has shown for late, specifically Nuge-Poo who are the faster/quicker of the two main kill lines. They’ll have to be vigilant when they play a team that can really sling it around (San Jose in the near future) but i like the urgency, much better.

    6) Confidence, confidence, confidence is seeping into everyone on this team. I can’t be the only one that senses it am I? Once Eberle can shake that snake there’s only one big project left on the team to up the confidence level and thats Milan. I’m excited here, very excited. Still lots of blacktop to go but this is shaping up to be a pretty good hockey team. Here’s hoping they can get on a bit of a role here and keep the W’s flowing

  18. Ice Sage says:

    So strange to be looking over our collective shoulder at this time of year…

  19. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I noticed that too.

    I’m liking McLellan’s break out and neutral zone play more lately.

    Its more like PIT with the back pressure and “getting pucks to areas for the forwards to get it”

    I wasn’t digging it before, but the team seems to play it much better now.

    EDM is 7th in the NHL with a Score/Venue adjusted CF% of 51.87

    That’s pretty damn good.

    This is more how I felt they were playing in October. Then it became dump-and-chase ad nauseum.

    I wonder if there was more going on than we know in November and December, beyond fatigue, which was my theory.

    One of the things it’s hard to really quantify is how much roster turnover hurts a team. Chiarelli really has transformed this team. Who is actually left from the last few years?

    Eberle, RNH, arguably Pouliot, Klefbom but he was hurt all the time.

    Plus this team is still playing so many young players: McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Slepyshev, RNH (still Baby Nuge!), Larsson, Klefbom, Khaira, Davidson, Nurse, Benning.

    It takes time to figure out systems and I wonder if McLellan dialed things back until he felt the players could handle it. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of actual practice time during the season, and McLellan a couple of times has given them rest instead of practice.

    For all the comments about him being harsh to the players in his remarks to the media, he probably has the best idea where their heads are at, at any given time.

  20. Jethro Tull says:

    OilClog:
    Ebs assisted on a Nuge shot that finally hit the net. That’s not producing in a manner that says your top6 RW position is secured.

    Ebs is a useful veteran for the playoffs? He’s never seen the playoffs, nor has his season inspired anything that should be putting that belief out there.

    This post suggests the you do not understand the ebbs (hah!) and flows of a player, nor regression to the norm. For every Maroon, I can show you an Eberle.

    Ebs has never seen the playoffs? Not the NHL ones, but do you think as a kid he any less emotional commitment to whatever playoffs he was participating in? Or do you think he simply beamed in from Planet Zog and straight into the NHL without ever playing hockey. Next you’ll be saying a player is no good because he’s never won a cup.

    Yes, if we reach the playoffs and Ebs starts regressing to being a goal scorer, he will be useful in the playoffs. His time in the MHL denotes him as a veteran. Ergo, he would be a useful veteran in the playoffs.

    You are correct in that he is not producing like a top 6 fwd, though I think WG may have something to say about that, but posters here refused to drop Yak down the line up when he had worse numbers, stating that he needed to play with skill, not grind on the 3rd line.

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    stush18:
    I think we have enough depth right now that players will be moved, and we will protect 4-4-1 rather than 7-3-1.

    Nuge, drai, lucic, ebs, Klef, Larsson, sekera, Davidson. Talbot.

    Does it suck to lose maroon? Yes. He’s my fave oiler right now. But our current depth chart (by actual position) looks like

    Maroon-mcdavid-eberle
    Lucic-drai-JP
    Pouliot-nuge-pitlick
    Hendricks-letestu-kassian
    Cags-lander-slepy-JJ
    our defensive depth chart looks like

    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-benning
    Nurse-Davidson
    Reinhart-gryba

    IMHO our forward ranks can take a hit much easier than our defensive depth can. I wouldn’t consider any of our current d-prospects to be NHL ready or capable, save for musil or Simpson. And projecting them onto the current roster would be a mistake imo.

    Now this all depends on what happens at and leading up to the expansion draft. Perhaps pouliot is dealt, we protect 7-3-1, and this post was for nothing lol

    As it stands right now, I still value our defense over the forwards that need protecting

    There is zero chance Maroon is left unprotected. Not sure if I want to sign him to huge deal either so maybe you trade him. Would love to sign him to 4 at $4 mill. Not sure if that gets it done though.

  22. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I noticed that too.

    I’m liking McLellan’s break out and neutral zone play more lately.

    Its more like PIT with the back pressure and “getting pucks to areas for the forwards to get it”

    I wasn’t digging it before, but the team seems to play it much better now.

    EDM is 7th in the NHL with a Score/Venue adjusted CF% of 51.87

    That’s pretty damn good.

    The question is whether this is what TMac has been coaching all along, only now he’s getting execution from the players, or he was visited by a Hockey angel and 3 wise men?

  23. Jethro Tull says:

    JimmyV1965: There is zero chance Maroon is left unprotected. Not sure if I want to sign him to huge deal either so maybe you trade him. Would love to sign him to 4 at $4 mill. Not sure if that gets it done though.

    Beware streaking players. Happy for Paddy, of course, but is the smart money on him staying hot?

    I hope he does, sincerely I do. Just as I hope Poo-Nuge-Ebs can give us what they gave us when they were our top line.

  24. dustrock says:

    Also LT, couple of points on your comments:

    (1) Benson’s injuries are a bad sign, but can we really say the 2016 draft is anything but great at this point? We have Puljujarvi (an unlooked for gift), Benson, which was a risk but at least we know is a substantial prospect, Dylan Wells who is defying expectations and having one heck of a D+1 season, Rasanen played extremely well on a poor Finnish WJHC team.

    I’d say right now (early days, obviously) the 2016 draft looks like the best overall since 2011. Much will depend on Benson though.

    (2) I am not sure whether TSN is listing Eberle as trade bait in general, or for the deadline. Unless, knock on wood, God is good, there is a terrible injury and the team nosedives, the Oilers should be in the thick of things for the rest of the season.

    Even if they are not technically in the playoffs but are within striking distance at the deadline, it’s hard to see Chiarelli being a seller, especially for a piece like Eberle.

    That seems like an offseason move to me. Gone are the days of risky trade deadline acquisitions.

    Still: Chiarelli needs to somehow achieve balance without getting rid of existing pieces OR mortgaging the future.

    I think he may have to trade at least one of Klefbom/Nurse/Davidson, and possibly Eberle, Maroon as well. Pouliot if anyone is interested.

    Otherwise, we have our mid-first round pick, and then nothing until the 3rd round.

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jethro Tull: This post suggests the you do not understand the ebbs (hah!) and flows of a player, nor regression to the norm.For every Maroon, I can show you an Eberle.

    Ebs has never seen the playoffs?Not the NHL ones, but do you think as a kid he any less emotional commitment to whatever playoffs he was participating in?Or do you think he simply beamed in from Planet Zog and straight into the NHL without ever playing hockey.Next you’ll be saying a player is no good because he’s never won a cup.

    Yes, if we reach the playoffs and Ebs starts regressing to being a goal scorer, he will be useful in the playoffs.His time in the MHL denotes him as a veteran.Ergo, he would be a useful veteran in the playoffs.

    You are correct in that he is not producing like a top 6 fwd, though I think WG may have something to say about that, but posters here refused to drop Yak down the line up when he had worse numbers, stating that he needed to play with skill, not grind on the 3rd line.

    I’m definitely an Eberle supporter. I’ve defended him many times on this blog, but the truth is he has virtually no playoff experience. His junior team was hot garbage too and may have never made the playoffs. Maybe in midget but that’s a long time ago.

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jethro Tull: Beware streaking players.Happy for Paddy, of course, but is the smart money on him staying hot?

    I hope he does, sincerely I do.Just as I hope Poo-Nuge-Ebs can give us what they gave us when they were our top line.

    He will regress of course, but he’s a virtual lock for 25 goals. If he’s left unprotected you can guarantee no one else would have that many goals. He has to be protected or traded and he will.

  27. Scungilli says:

    JimmyV1965: There is zero chance Maroon is left unprotected. Not sure if I want to sign him to huge deal either so maybe you trade him. Would love to sign him to 4 at $4 mill. Not sure if that gets it done though.

    If he rips next season up maybe. I’m concerned still as he’s 29 in April. He’s probably peaking now. With his speed issues if he’s not scoring he’s a marginal NHL’er. At least Pouliot can skate and could be an effective checker at the right price. Love Maroon, but maybe you trade him while he’s hot for a D if you can’t deal Eberle or Pouliot. In the summer.

  28. Clay says:

    I am unsure how to feel about the move of Benning from playing with Sekera to playing with Davidson. I honestly like Sekera – Benning better than Sekera – Russell, but I sort of get why coach would move him to play with Davidson, as that pairing could be a prototypical modern NHL pairing if Davidson ever gets his game-legs back. Smarts, speed, and passing trumping moar biggar, as it were.

    Another thought from the PHX game – and I know this is unoriginal – McDavid needs to develop some selfishness. My god man, that 2-on-1 where he tried to force it across to Draisaitl… Mike Smith was cheating across pretty hard (relatively speaking), and The One wasn’t even a threat to shoot. I heard on TSN 1260 a few days ago (don’t remember who said it) that McDavid’s expected goals for is even higher than his assist total. I believe it.

    Regarding the 2013 and 2014 holes in draft procurement, if I’m playing devil’s advocate here, the last two off-seasons have shown that NHL GMs are very focused on cheap young talent, and this means very good veteran free agents are left available late into summer (Russell, Versteeg, etc). So for the years when the Oilers should be graduating players like Barzal, they should be able to find some stop-gaps that won’t blow the payroll. But they do need to stop the outflow of draft picks, and start being smart with D&D, for sure.

    Finally, our former favourite whipping-boy, Justin Norris, with 4 points last night, and now has 30 pts in 43 games. I was as frustrated with him as anyone, but am happy he’s found a good home (in the other conference). Seems to be taking a step forward – before Dec. 16th, he played 21+ minutes only once, and since then has played less than 21+ minutes only once, while going 2-11-13 in 13 games.

  29. khildahl says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m definitely an Eberle supporter.I’ve defended him many times on this blog, but the truth is he has virtually no playoff experience. His junior team was hot garbage too and may have never made the playoffs.Maybe in midget but that’s a long time ago.

    He’s played and performed very well in many international tournaments, which certainly aren’t lacking in intensity.

  30. Jethro Tull says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m definitely an Eberle supporter.I’ve defended him many times on this blog, but the truth is he has virtually no playoff experience. His junior team was hot garbage too and may have never made the playoffs.Maybe in midget but that’s a long time ago.

    What is playoff experience?

    That’s like saying your boss never picks you for the important jobs on overtime because you have no experience at it when for the last 6 years you’ve been one of his/her most consistent workers.

    Ben Eager
    Dan Carcillo
    Dan Hinote

    To name a few, but these players have Stanley Cup rings…..

  31. The Trade Guy says:

    Eberle’s biggest stage games were the World Juniors and maybe the World Championships.

    Not a lot there but he was great at the juniors. Personally, I think playoff experience is overated for individual players. He could be lights out.

  32. LMHF#1 says:

    People need to start working up an understanding of the Brent Burns body/player type. These guys exist – peak late and last despite being large and taking a beating. The question is whether Maroon is this player type. Surely not at a PPG level – but indications are there.

    I’m hoping they sign him for 4 years in short order.

  33. Louis Levasseur says:

    Solid game last night, but that coverage on the Arizona PP goal was confusing. I suppose it’s too old school to play the box on the PK, but what the hell was that? Not sure if that was the swarm, but I’d call it something else. To me, any defensive system that doesn’t call for one defenseman (or at least one player) to be in front of the net is crazy.

  34. Woogie63 says:

    Does the player development plan for McDavid, Driasaitl, Nurse, Klefblom, Benning, Davidson, Pitlick, Slepyshev, Khaira, ‘Reinhart, LB, JP look more thoughtful to more than just me?

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli:
    Hey Woodguy, have you looked at Barrie this year? Corsica says he’s highest TOI on the Avs. I wonder if they could find a deal around Duchene and Barrie. My assumption is the Av’s looking for more two way types, although Landeskog rumours are out there.

    With so many players struggling and teams with expectations on the playoff bubble it seems like a good year to try and acquire some talent not always available. I’d be poking around Florida as well.

    I’m not a Barrie guy much anymore.

    I think teams really overpay for Dman points and often they team isn’t scoring much more with them on the ice, so they are just cannibalizing points from forwards.

    He’s been playing the toughs with Tyutin and getting their head kicked in since Johnson went down.

    Also,

    To that end I think paying Shattenkirk $7MM is not money well spent either.

    His 5v5 play is uneven from year to year and he plays the toughs (31%) as often as Benning and Benning has superior results.

    The EDM powerplay is one of the better ones so they really don’t need to add him to help.

    Try Benning there first.

    $7MM for a 2nd pair Dman who is “ok” 5v5 and good on the PP isn’t wise cap management.

  36. Protagonist says:

    Was at the game last night, and I have some thoughts:

    People are sleeping on the Old Spaghetti Factory as a pre-game meal. Bread with Garlic Butter, 2 starter salads, 2 Entrees (Lasagna and Seafood Fettucine) and Spumoni ice-cream for desert for just less than $40, served up quickly and with prompt service. There was a bunch of Oiler fans in attendance, but less than should be for that price. It’s the Swiss Chalet of Italian food and that’s not a bad thing.

    Eberle: has clearly done something very wrong to a Buddha in a past life, (or this life, I don’t judge). That breakaway should have been money but he made it easier for Smith than he should have, directly shooting it into the glove. He clearly thought it was in, and 19,000 people hoped along with him. But what he did do was backcheck fiercely, and several good defensive plays were directly as a result of his backchecking. He wasn’t as good on the forecheck as some of the Oilers, but he was involved defensively which should be something we all celebrate. Even after the post, the breakaway, and the phantom penalty, he seemed lighter on his feet. Body language warning, but he seemed less bothered by his misses than he has in other games. Previously, every single goal that didn’t go in was the worst thing in the world, and you could see it really bothered him. I think he’s now trended into the “it’ll happen eventually” stage, where he doesn’t let it bother him as much. Probably still weighs on him, but he’s doing the little (defensive) things better.

    Slepyshev: Didn’t play many minutes, but always impacted the play in a positive direction. Whenever I noticed him, it was always for a good maneuver or play in the offensive zone. Didn’t notice him a wink in the defensive zone but on offense he was making strong moves with the puck, separating defender and disc effectively, and using positioning and size to try and establish good possession. The rest of his linemates didn’t seem to be as effective as he was, and that line dearly needs to score to get some confidence. Slepy was always creating, but it looked last night like he was saddled with a few passengers, other than a few creative Kassian sequences. That line looks like three players playing an individual game rather than a line that clicks and has chemistry. With time they might get there.

    Davidson: Saw him bad several times, saw him good once. He quietly played a decent game, and his offensive chance was good. Every other time I saw him, it was usually a result of a sloppy defensive play. When challenged, he sometimes stops his feet moving and gets beat as a result. Happened a few times. Might be conditioning related given that he’s missed some time. Seemed to be thinking the game quicker than he was playing it at times, but that might just be an adjustment period.

    Khaira: Limited work, great goal (right in front of us) and always physical. He can skate, and as he gets more experienced, should get stronger on the puck. His line other than him is slow, and once he’s got younger players might fit really well on a physical, fast and effective fourth line. If we ever have the horses to run Sleppy, Khaira and Letestu on our 4th, that line could be fire for some time. Really impressed in the limited viewings.

    Nugent-Hopkins: Really found his touch the past few games, and made some great plays this game. Was very impressed with his shot, and wish he got more time on the PP. Put in yeomans work on the PK and had the kind of smooth defensive game we just expect now. Legitimately a great player already. Hope he eventually hits 50 points for the first time in his career, he deserves it.

    Larsson: Nasty bugger. Has a tendency to get in a shot or two after the whistle, but is always a clean agitator. I like him plenty, and he provides a good steady influence on our blue-line. I hope to be seeing him for the next 10 years in orange and blue. Picked up an assist for a fine defensive play, but didn’t contribute much offensively.

    Draisaitl: In contrast to Davidson who was caught flat footed a bunch, Draisaitl has this interesting habit of conserving effort in a game. Might have grown from being out of gas last year, but if he can’t affect a play, he usually won’t try. Unlike say, Lucic who might try and fail because he’s too slow, Draisaitl picks his spots and is usually effective. Good forechecker, had pressure the entire night and what puck battles he decided to engage in, he usually won. Dandy move to score, just a sick little move and a shot that beat Smith cleanly. Is already the second best player on this team (offensively). Has a tendency to “return fire” much like Benoit Pouliout. Can’t resist giving a shot back when he takes one, which may turn into penalty trouble in the future.

    Hanzal: I’ve seen Hanzal a handful of times live, but given that he’s probably on the block this year, I watched him extra intently. What he does is win every puck battle. Period. If you engage with Martin Hanzal you are losing the puck, 100% of the time. He uses a combination of strength, positioning and opportunism to routinely separate players from the puck in the offensive and defensive zone. It resulted in a few easy shots on net, and more than a few busted plays in the defensive zone for the Oilers. He’s exactly the kind of player that you pair with more singular and explosive offensive players, like a Slepyshev or a Puljujarvi, players who can create and score if you give them the puck. If he’s up on the block, you go get this guy. Didn’t look slow, but didn’t look fast.

    Tippet: The best coach in the NHL by far. Oilers had an absolutely stifling forecheck and turned the neutral zone into quicksand in what might have been their best performance of the year defensively. During the second, Tippet must have made adjustments because the ‘Yotes breakout shifted dramatically, especially on the PP. Instead of just rushing through the neutral zone, they’d make a medium speed foray up ice, draw defenders, then pass back to a streaking winger or defenseman who would target the areas freed up by the initial player and gain a quick and easy zone entry. They got lots more dangerous after they made this quick change, and were able to gain entry much easier. During the first and second, there wasn’t much going that wasn’t caused by an Oilers penalty for the Coyotes, but they looked much more dangerous once adjustments were made.

  37. leadfarmer says:

    How different does that prospect cupboard look without the Reinhart trade. We instantly go from pretty bare to decent.

  38. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jethro Tull: What is playoff experience?

    That’s like saying your boss never picks you for the important jobs on overtime because you have no experience at it when for the last 6 years you’ve been one of his/her most consistent workers.

    Ben Eager
    Dan Carcillo
    Dan Hinote

    To name a few, but these players have Stanley Cup rings…..

    You moved the goal posts. I’m simply saying he has very very little playoff experience even at the junior level. I’m not saying he won’t be fire in the playoffs and I’m not saying he doesn’t have a great track record in international play, although he doesn’t have a lot of experience there either. I was simply replying to a post where you implied he has playoff experience outside the NHL.

  39. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m not a Barrie guy much anymore.

    I think teams really overpay for Dman points and often they team isn’t scoring much more with them on the ice, so they are just cannibalizing points from forwards.

    The EDM powerplay is one of the better ones so they really don’t need to add him to help.

    Try Benning there first.

    You feeling okay this morning WG?

    Edmonton is 11th with Connor McDavid on the team. You’ve watched that powerplay. It’s not good.

    Benning has shown no ability to score goals – much less from the point which is the threat the Oilers are missing. I like the guy, but where’s the PP QB in him?

    How are defencemen who score goals (especially from the point) “cannibalizing” points? I don’t agree with the premise to begin with, but that’s a broader debate so let’s keep it to goals.

    Getting a Dman capable of putting pucks in the net would add a big threat for this team. Something they’ve lacked for a good while now.

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Wonder what the price tag on Colin Miller would be in the off-season, wonder if Boston would protect him

  41. Diesel says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    To that end I think paying Shattenkirk $7MM is not money well spent either.

    Agreed. Acquiring a Burns or Karlsson in his prime is essentially impossible and I don’t see how blowing your brains out on a knockoff model ie. Shattenkirk is the next best plan.

    Deploy a cheap specialist properly, such as Orlov, and pray you have the parts and knowledge to build your own Burns.

    Build-a-Burns™

  42. Scungilli says:

    LMHF#1:
    People need to start working up an understanding of the Brent Burns body/player type. These guys exist – peak late and last despite being large and taking a beating. The question is whether Maroon is this player type. Surely not at a PPG level – but indications would seem to indicate he may be.

    I’m hoping they sign him for 4 years in short order.

    Burns is a great skater, especially at that size. Not many long careers for slow old guys that don’t have exceptional ability. Love Maroon, but he’s not exceptional.

  43. npanciroli says:

    Chiarelli has done an incredible job procuring defencemen.

    I think the play now is to find a few more cheaper wingers.

    See if you can fit Benning or Larsson on the PP. LHD for RW or a RHC or two.

  44. stush18 says:

    JimmyV1965: He will regress of course, but he’s a virtual lock for 25 goals. If he’s left unprotected you can guarantee no one else would have that many goals. He has to be protected or traded and he will.

    Sure but then you’re going to have to protect 7-3-1.

    I just realized I forgot to add Russell into the expansion equation. Going 7-3-1 is probably the best choice. I forgot about him completely.

    Nuge-drai-lucic-ebs-maroon-letestu-pitlick(whoever)-sekera-Klef-Larsson

  45. stush18 says:

    LMHF#1: You feeling okay this morning WG?

    Edmonton is 11th with Connor McDavid on the team. You’ve watched that powerplay. It’s not good.

    Benning has shown no ability to score goals – much less from the point which is the threat the Oilers are missing. I like the guy, but where’s the PP QB in him?

    How are defencemen who score goals (especially from the point) “cannibalizing” points? I don’t agree with the premise to begin with, but that’s a broader debate so let’s keep it to goals.

    Getting a Dman capable of putting pucks in the net would add a big threat for this team. Something they’ve lacked for a good while now.

    This is V2.0. He’s more upbeat. Or maybe it’s the other way around. I’m not sure anymore.

    I think benning on the powerplay is a good idea. He had a 97 mph slap shot in the skills comp. he can clearly pass and make plays. I think it’s a good idea before we try for someone expensive

  46. Scungilli says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m not a Barrie guy much anymore.

    I think teams really overpay for Dman points and often they team isn’t scoring much more with them on the ice, so they are just cannibalizing points from forwards.

    He’s been playing the toughs with Tyutin and getting their head kicked in since Johnson went down.

    Also,

    To that end I think paying Shattenkirk $7MM is not money well spent either.

    His 5v5 play is uneven from year to year and he plays the toughs (31%) as often as Benning and Benning has superior results.

    The EDM powerplay is one of the better ones so they really don’t need to add him to help.

    Try Benning there first.

    $7MM for a 2nd pair Dman who is “ok” 5v5 and good on the PP isn’t wise cap management.

    I think the same way about paying a lot for players that need shelter. I do think they need another RD, I’m not sold on Russell. A vet might be a good idea to cover Benning for a while.

  47. Mattaklap says:

    The Team made a game against the Coyotes relatively entertaining yesterday. Forget Pike’s Peak, that’s Everest, man.

  48. Scungilli says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m not a Barrie guy much anymore.

    I think teams really overpay for Dman points and often they team isn’t scoring much more with them on the ice, so they are just cannibalizing points from forwards.

    He’s been playing the toughs with Tyutin and getting their head kicked in since Johnson went down.

    Also,

    To that end I think paying Shattenkirk $7MM is not money well spent either.

    His 5v5 play is uneven from year to year and he plays the toughs (31%) as often as Benning and Benning has superior results.

    The EDM powerplay is one of the better ones so they really don’t need to add him to help.

    Try Benning there first.

    $7MM for a 2nd pair Dman who is “ok” 5v5 and good on the PP isn’t wise cap management.

    I know you aren’t answer monkey, but have you looked at Michael Stone?

  49. N64 says:

    stush18: This is V2.0. He’s more upbeat.

    That woodguy. Completely different player home and away. 😉

  50. Whatif says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    It seems that he is fairly well rounded as a young D man. The fact that he seems to generate a lot of shots and has some scoring success as a RHD is interesting to me.

    While Pouliot would be a good trade piece, would we have to add someone from the leftorium or potentially have to take something else from Anaheim to balance the cap issues?

  51. Glass says:

    I’m all for picking up Vrbata & one of Montour/Sproul. We sorely lack RHD prospects in the farm system at the moment. Ethan Bear and Marino are a ways away.

    Next season we’re going to have Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, and Ziyat Paigin coming into a system that lacks RHD and is overflowing with LHD. Room needs to be made. Out of Benik, Oesterle, Reinhart, Musil, and Simpson, we’ve got to at least trade a couple guys.

    Musil is almost a given. I would hold out hope for Reinhart for at least another season before I dangle him as trade bait. To fetch a decent return, one of Oesterle/Simpson have got to go. I would also trade Benik for a depth pick.

    Interesting trade targets:

    Kyle Wood of Arizona. He appears to be doing very well for a rookie in the AHL, has the size at 6’5″ 210. He was sold as a defensive d, but has an underrated offensive game. Currently tied for league lead in 6PPG, and has 77 shots in 32 games played as a rookie. Additionally he is the leading rookie scorer in the AHL with 30 points in 32 gp. He may be difficult to acquire due to the fact that he is Arizona’s leading D prospect in the AHL system and does not need to be protected.

    Ryan Sproul of Detroit. He has a history of being solid on the PP in the AHL. Could slot into our 3rd pair and try him at the 2nd PP unit.

    Brandon Montour of Anaheim. Perhaps NHL ready as of this moment. He has 126 shots in 28 GP. Has 11 goals (1 shy of the league leader) who has 4 more GP. He also had a very strong rookie season in the AHL as well. Anaheim can’t protect him, even if they protect 4D; they are too deep. If he is acquired however, is he then taken away to Vegas?

    These targets likely don’t share the price tag of Dumba, Trouba, and Barrie which is why I mentioned them.

    Arizona was already a trade partner seeing as how they had Hanzal & Vrbata available as rentals. I’d probably look to acquire Vrbata & Wood in a package. I want Montour, but just as quick as we acquire him, we probably lose him to expansion.

  52. leadfarmer says:

    LMHF#1,

    Points from defensemen is the most expensive way to get points. Its great if the player is pretty good in his own end but Barrie is a tire fire in his own end. While Barrie would be great to have on the pp, 5.5 mil is a lot of money for a guy that needs to be sheltered in his own end and is a second pairing pp specialist

    Defenseman that drive the play but dont put up a lot of points is the new value contract. Defenseman that put up a lot of points but don’t drive the play is the new money pit

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LMHF#1,

    Edmonton is 11th with Connor McDavid on the team. You’ve watched that powerplay. It’s not good.

    11th by the NHL’s count right?

    That’s a terrible way to judge a powerplay.

    They equate a 20 second powerplay to a 2 minutes power play and it skews the numbers.

    I like goals/60

    Team GF/60
    Columbus 9.67
    Pittsburgh 8.58
    NY Rangers 8.19
    Tampa Bay 7.95
    Buffalo 7.84
    Toronto 7.71
    Edmonton 7.66
    Anaheim 7.63
    Montreal 7.53
    Philadelphia 7.43
    St. Louis 7.27
    Calgary 6.86

    There is no doubt in my mind that if they added another RHS to PP1 and PP2, they’d be over 8.00.

    They run a very good powerplay and just don’t quite deploy enough right shots.

    CBJ is perfect – RS bumper (Drai spot), RH Shooter (Letestu’s spot), LHD (Sekera’s spot), LHQB (McDavid’s spot)

    I like Drai on PP1, so changing the bumper to a RHS isn’t feasible with this line up so maybe if they added Benning in the Sekera spot and he slid down the middle more it would work.

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: The question is whether this is what TMac has been coaching all along, only now he’s getting execution from the players, or he was visited by a Hockey angel and 3 wise men?

    McLellan has not been shy in the last 6 weeks to move under performing F’s down the roster and performing F’s up the roster.

    Pou and Ebs move down. Perhaps get told “play the fucking system”, turn it around and move back up.

    Lucic is down the roster now, but not sure where he’s at.

    Maroon moves up the roster and kills it at every spot along the way.

    I think the system hasn’t changed, I think the players are responding to the coach’s carrot/stick more.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli: I know you aren’t answer monkey, but have you looked at Michael Stone?

    Yes.

    Ok 3rd pair Dman who struggles above 3rd pair and is “ok” on the PP.

    Pass

  56. Confused says:

    Saw JJ taking faceoffs last night.

    Any thoughts on playing the following by March

    Looch. Test JP

    Cags JJ Kass

  57. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0: His 5v5 play is uneven from year to year and he plays the toughs (31%) as often as Benning and Benning has superior results.

    I love your new Woodmoney stats, but I think we have to be very careful about making comparisons like this across teams, no?

  58. Younger Oil says:

    I thought Eberle was our best forward last night, he had a great game. The goals will come.

    Also think McDavid is deferring to the pass way, way too much. Teams are really starting to pick up on it. He is passing on an odd man rush upwards of 90% of the time, and really should shoot at least a third of the time, probably more. Sure, if the pass connects it’s a better scoring chance, but in the past month or so, way less of those passes are getting through, and the goalie can anticipate the pass much easier.

    Obviously McDavid is still an elite player, but still has lots he could improve on, as any young player does, which is scary in a good way.

  59. Melman says:

    Re; Benson – it sounds a lot like he has osteitis pubis for which there is no quick fix. Given where the Giants are in the standings the best thing is to shut him down now for the remainder of the season.

    TMac alluded to it in his post-game, but the recent improvement in home ice play and settling into his system has I’m sure much to do with the team finally being at home for an extended stretch which started around Christmas. There is very little practice time available on the road and most of their home games have been short stops between road trips.

  60. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Has there been any update on the Sekera injury?

  61. GBandQ says:

    Crazy Pedestrian,

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 13m13 minutes ago
    “He blocked a shot but he should be fine for tomorrow. We’re counting on him.” Coach McLellan on Sekera’s status after #ARIvsEDM last night

  62. spoiler says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m definitely an Eberle supporter.I’ve defended him many times on this blog, but the truth is he has virtually no playoff experience. His junior team was hot garbage too and may have never made the playoffs.Maybe in midget but that’s a long time ago.

    In other words, you’re telling Jethro he’s wrong, but you don’t actually know?

    1. Made the playoffs twice as a Regine Pat
    2. Made the playoffs in Canada Games
    4. Made the playoffs in World U18s
    4. Made the playoffs (medal round) twice as a National Team Junior. Named MVP of the Tournament one of those years. Canada’s 2nd all-time scorer in the Juniors. Named by TSN as the Best WJC Player of All Time
    5. Made the playoffs twice in the WHCs, winning gold once (2nd leading scorer).

    Not to mention your comment is a pile-on of Jethro bizarrely being forced to defend his statement “Eberle would be a useful veteran in the Playoffs” from the very first post in this thread. This is almost at the level of a truism and yet it is being criticized.

  63. oscarmike says:

    Good for Pou-Nuge-Ebs

    They had a good game against one
    of the worst teams in the NHL.

    They should have a good couple of
    games against FLA and NSH.

    With Back to Back games coming
    up will Todd the back up against NSH
    or FLA

    Here a trade deadline move
    swap Puljujarvi with Pou. Lol

  64. Woogie63 says:

    Does the league allow you to trade retained salary? Could the Oilers trade a lower salary left handed dman and the Maroon retained salary to the Ducks for. RHD?

  65. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    I like Drai onPP1, so changing the bumper to a RHS isn’t feasible with this line up somaybe if they added Benning in the Sekera spot and he slid down the middle more it would work.

    Fair enough. Would still rather see them add a guy like Barrie and lose Russell at the end of the season.

    As for PP1 – run: McDavid, Draisaitl, Maroon, Slepyshev, Sekera.

    Combines the forward unit that works, the OT unit that works, and a shooter/puck carrier that has experience running a powerplay. He’s also right handed.

    Leaves you with options for your second unit as well, which would include Benning.

  66. LMHF#1 says:

    leadfarmer:

    Defenseman that drive the play but dont put up a lot of points is the new value contract.

    Who are these mutants? And why can’t they make a stretch pass?

  67. spoiler says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Eberle isn’t going anywhere.You would have to bet against him returning to form and he is still a veteran that is useful in the playoffs.His value is low at the moment, rumblings of needing surgery and the Oilers are looking to add pieces via prospects and picks and duplicated players for a playoff run (that sounds weird, quick LT, do a prospect piece!).

    Hendricks could be gone, but I suspect Ebs would be dealt in the summer, if at all.

    I’m surprised that LT gave The TSN Shameless Click Bait Board any cred whatsoever.

    Notice there’s only one player from the East on the list?

    Shameless.

  68. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Glass,

    I watch Wood play here in Tucson. He is not a good skater. He has great size, nice hands, nice pass.

    I believe his stats will be difficult to translate to the NHL without primo PP minutes He does not have the footspeed.

    And I bet the asking price is high due to size and boxcars. If he could be had for a song, sure, but I would not overpay for him.

  69. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LMHF#1,

    11th by the NHL’s count right?

    That’s a terrible way to judge a powerplay.

    They equate a 20 second powerplay to a 2 minutes power play and it skews the numbers.

    I like goals/60

    PP% and GF60 measure the same thing. Correlation is something like 0.98.

    PP% = GF / # of PP situations

    GF60 = (GF * 60) / TOI in PP situations

    Numerators are the same and an increase in one of the denominators corresponds to an increase in the other. A little bit of a difference in the two rankings should be ignored. I’d focus on are we far enough away from the middle for it to matter.

    (I think you used 5v4 GF60 numbers instead of all PP GF60 numbers. NHL would use all PP.)

  70. N64 says:

    Melman:
    Re; Benson – it sounds a lot like he has osteitis pubis for which there is no quick fix.Given where the Giants are in the standings the best thing is to shut him down now for the remainder of the season.

    TMac alluded to it in his post-game, but the recent improvement in home ice play and settling into his system has I’m sure much to do with the team finally being at home for an extended stretch which started around Christmas.There is very little practice time available on the road and most of their home games have been short stops between road trips.

    Yes. Coincidence or no. First scratch was in Edmonton. Hope Oil are making needed referrals.

    http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/87420-overview

  71. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Notice all the chatter this month about a new deal for Russell? Me neither. Maroon is having a great run but careful for hot streaks. Give him Pouliot money and term and you could well regret it. I am all for finding and keeping gems but don’t overpay for career best years with little track record of sustainability. 3m x 3? sure. Push term beyond that and money beyond 4m and I am not going to like that deal.

    I said I loved Pouliot before signing but was not a fan of the term and money. First 2 years I looked wrong. This year he is way overpaid. The true ability of Pou? Somewhere in between. at 3mx 4 years we would not be so upset.

    And before you say Maroon> Pou, they actually had very similar circumstances and career arc before Pou signed here.

  72. Jethro Tull says:

    spoiler: In other words, you’re telling Jethro he’s wrong, but you don’t actually know?

    1. Made the playoffs twice as a Regine Pat
    2. Made the playoffs in Canada Games
    4. Made the playoffs in World U18s
    4. Made the playoffs (medal round) twice as a National Team Junior. Named MVP of the Tournament one of those years.Canada’s 2nd all-time scorer in the Juniors.Named by TSN as the Best WJC Player of All Time
    5. Made the playoffs twice in the WHCs, winning gold once (2nd leading scorer).

    Not to mention your comment is a pile-on of Jethro bizarrely being forced to defend his statement “Eberle would be a useful veteran in the Playoffs” from the very first post in this thread.This is almost at the level of a truism and yet it is being criticized.

    No worries Spoiler, I didn’t take offense.

    spoiler: I’m surprised that LT gave The TSN Shameless Click Bait Board any cred whatsoever.

    Notice there’s only one player from the East on the list?

    Shameless.

    That’s because every team in the East is making the playoffs! 😉

  73. Wolfpack says:

    I can’t believe I am admitting this, but a small part of me felt sorry for the opposition last night. As an Oilers fan I have been in that same place so many times over the past decade that it is impossible for me not to feel some empathy. That team is not good.

    Over the last few games I have seen much better positioning and support in the defensive end. I have seen a lot less situations where I give the old “uh-oh”. To my eye the Oilers have just gotten better at being able to out-man the opposition in most of those own-zone battles.

    One thing I will not take for granted is Cam Talbot and what he has brought to this team this year. I seem to recall that Dubnyk’s struggles as an Oiler coincided with becoming a Dad. Getting tossed under the bus by the GM probably didn’t help. But knowing that Cam Talbot has twin infants at home and is still managing to bring his A-game almost every night and carrying the workload that he has – wow. This guy is really, really good.

  74. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: I’m surprised that LT gave The TSN Shameless Click Bait Board any cred whatsoever.

    Notice there’s only one player from the East on the list?

    Shameless.

    Frank Seravalli is on my show every Thursday, I work for TSN. I had him on last deadline and through the summer and he had a board which included players who left Edmonton. I am surprised you are surprised I would quote Frank Seravalli.

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LMHF#1,

    Getting a Dman capable of putting pucks in the net would add a big threat for this team. Something they’ve lacked for a good while now.

    Dmen shots are also vastly over rated on the PP.

    League wide only 15% of PP goals come from point shots and point shot rebounds.

    The middle of the ice is where they are all scored.

    I’ve been examining the better powerplays and the Oilers set up is the same as the best ones, and they are producing.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    spoiler: I love your new Woodmoney stats, but I think we have to be very careful about making comparisons like this across teams, no?

    No.

    Its TOI vs the same set of 60 players.

    Its very transferable.

    Who they play with during those minutes and their results is where you need to be careful, but the raw TOI% is very equatable.

  77. jonrmcleod says:

    New York Islanders
    @NYIslanders
    #Isles News: Jack Capuano has been relieved of his duties as Head Coach. Assistant GM Doug Weight will serve as interim Head Coach.

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LMHF#1: Who are these mutants? And why can’t they make a stretch pass?

    They exist, and they pass very well.

    Poster boy is Stralman on TBY.

    Petry was a poster boy, but the points started to come for him.

    Petry has 1.18/60 and is 17th in the NHL among DMen with > 200 5v5 minutes.

    My next little project is to identify more of these guys.

    I wish I had kept of list of every poster and twitter handle that hated on Petry.

    Rishaug and Gregor seemed to have a contest on who could call him “soft” the most.

    Man.

  79. spoiler says:

    Let’s look at the TSN Clickbait Board…

    Duchene
    Vanek
    Hanzal
    Landeskog
    Vrbata
    Eberle
    Shattenkirk

    For some reason his list is missing #4 and #7. Further emphasizing the baiting nature of the tweet.

    Does anyone really believe trade value can be maxed on Duchene, Landeskog, Eberle and Shattenkirk at the deadline?

    Does anyone really believe the Blues would trade Shatty at the TD without a player of the same or near quality coming back?

    The Avs are much more likely to trade Iginla, Bourque, Mitchell, Wiercoch and/or Tyutin than they are Duchene or Landy.

    Eberle would make the Oil sellers… have no idea what TSN is thinking here.

    That leaves:

    Vanek
    Hanzal
    Vrbata

    Doan has added his name to the list and I think we can add Burrows too. Likely Drew Stafford as well.

    Out of these guys who is gonna generate the most demand from other GMs?

    Coz that’s where the overpays lie.

    I suspect the 3 above… Vanek, Hanzal, Vrbata… will be in the greatest demand.

    Chia’s been burned by the Kaberle addition in the past. I think he might go 2nd tier here.

  80. spoiler says:

    jonrmcleod,

    Wow. Sad for Capuano, but good on Doug Weight.

  81. oscarmike says:

    Trade deadline moves

    Nuge for Toffoli

    Eberle for Cody Eakins+DAL 2017 1st round pick

    EDM 2017 1st pick+DAL 2017 1st round for Shattenkirk

    EDM 2017 3rd round+JJ+Davidson+2018 conditional for Sivlferberg( ANA will protect 4-4-1 at the expansion draft)

    Maroon-Mcdavid-Draisaitle
    Lucic-Toffoli-Silverberg
    Drake-Eakins-Pujujarvi
    Pou-Letestu-Kassian

    Sekera-Shattenkirk
    Klef-Larsson
    Russel-Benning

  82. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No.

    Its TOI vs the same set of 60 players.

    Its very transferable.

    Who they play with during those minutes and their results is where you need to be careful, but the raw TOI% is very equatable.

    How are you controlling for linemates and systems?

  83. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Frank Seravalli is on my show every Thursday, I work for TSN. I had him on last deadline and through the summer and he had a board which included players who left Edmonton. I am surprised you are surprised I would quote Frank Seravalli.

    Dammit! I keep forgetting the TSN connection. I’m down south so the radio presence and the guests don’t click in my head. Apologies.

    However, aren’t you quoting Chris Nichols?

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: PP% and GF60 measure the same thing. Correlation is something like 0.98.

    PP% = GF / # of PP situations

    GF60 = (GF * 60) / TOI in PP situations

    Numerators are the same and an increase in one of the denominators corresponds to an increase in the other. A little bit of a difference in the two rankings should be ignored. I’d focus on are we far enough away from the middle for it to matter.

    (I think you used 5v4 GF60 numbers instead of all PP GF60 numbers. NHL would use all PP.)

    Yes, I used 5v4.

    Numerators are not the same though, but you’re right that they are close.

    Another reason I like GF/60 is because it “boosts” the number when you score quickly.

    The best powerplays often do not take long to score.

  85. OilClog says:

    Lol Ebs seen the playoffs as a kid Lordy.. The pats played 5 and 6 games.. He scored a point per game, yet came away empty handed. Severely.

    Understand the Ebs and flow of a player.. he hit a goal post and got robbed!… Sure looks like the league has figured out how to contain Ebs.. Sure looks like goalies know they have set up time when Ebs is shooting.. He could of with momentum alone pushed that puck across the line last night instead of trying to be pretty in the top shelf, Smith gambled on the bet, Ebs walked away broke.

    8 goals in 46 games.. 27 points. That’s playing majority along the most explosive player in the league.. Or with Nuge, or with Drai… With a huge LW no matter the line… If you’re not seeing a player that has checked himself out.. Talk to me about Ebs and flows.. Maybe if his underlying #’s provided some rest easy.. But they don’t! 11 shots in the last 5 games, that’s not a player trying to shoot himself out of it, when you’re labelled as the teams defacto shooter.

    I’m not sure imo there’s a $6million player here to help you in the playoffs against the Anahiems, Sharks, etc. This season he’s a shell of his former self with the puck, that some of the experts saying needs a sheltered 3rd line role. That’s unacceptable for this team. He’s an offensive specialist that was starting to show cracks last season, never sees a moment of PK, and is on the 2nd PP watching the 4th line C take up his spot on the half boards.

    Replacing him for Gagner doesn’t seem all that ridiculous and would improve the team if this is the new Eberle.

    Oilers sorely need Eberle to roll back the clock, or an upgrade.

  86. Ducey says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LMHF#1,

    Edmonton is 11th with Connor McDavid on the team. You’ve watched that powerplay. It’s not good.

    11th by the NHL’s count right?

    That’s a terrible way to judge a powerplay.

    They equate a 20 second powerplay to a 2 minutes power play and it skews the numbers.

    I like goals/60

    TeamGF/60
    Columbus9.67
    Pittsburgh8.58
    NY Rangers8.19
    Tampa Bay7.95
    Buffalo7.84
    Toronto7.71
    Edmonton7.66
    Anaheim7.63
    Montreal7.53
    Philadelphia7.43
    St. Louis7.27
    Calgary6.86

    There is no doubt in my mind that if they added another RHS to PP1 and PP2, they’d be over 8.00.

    They run a very good powerplay and just don’t quite deploy enough right shots.

    CBJ is perfect – RS bumper (Drai spot), RH Shooter (Letestu’s spot), LHD (Sekera’s spot), LHQB (McDavid’s spot)

    I like Drai onPP1, so changing the bumper to a RHS isn’t feasible with this line up somaybe if they added Benning in the Sekera spot and he slid down the middle more it would work.

    Excuse my limited math skills but isn’t an improvement from 7.5 (or so) to 8.0 goals/60 on the PP equivalent to one goal every 12 games (assuming 5 min of clear PP per game)?

    Not sure its worth getting excited about 3 extra goals the rest of the way out. Eberle is likely to improve his shooting % to cover that off just by himself.

  87. treevojo says:

    LMHF#1: Who are these mutants? And why can’t they make a stretch pass?

    We already traded for him.

    2.42 GF60 5on5

    Larsson ranks 9th out of 39 dmen who qualify at over 750mins 5on5

    9 pts all sit

    He is tied for 108th amongst dmen in the league

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    spoiler: How are you controlling for linemates and systems?

    Why do I need to control for anything for TOI?

  89. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Dammit! I keep forgetting the TSN connection.I’m down south so the radio presence and the guests don’t click in my head. Apologies.

    However, aren’t you quoting Chris Nichols?

    Sure, but I didn’t hear it live and it came up when I was writing. There was nothing sinister about it, merely trying to get the latest information out there. I did have the list available to me at the time of posting, but didn’t realize it (didn’t check my email until getting to work). No attempt at click bait on my part, just passing along what everyone would have found curious anyway. Imo. 🙂

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ducey: Excuse my limited math skills but isn’t an improvement from 7.5 (or so) to 8.0 goals/60 on the PP equivalent to one goal every 12 games (assuming 5 min of clear PP per game)?

    Not sure its worth getting excited about 3 extra goals the rest of the way out.Eberle is likely to improve his shooting % to cover that off just by himself.

    That’s a bit of hyperbole. (Eberle)

    If your math is right (didn’t check) then that’s another 7 goals or so a year.

    I think its just under 3.5 goals/per, so that’s two wins more.

    That’s pretty huge.

  91. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They exist.

    Poster boy is Stralman on TBY.

    Petry was a poster boy, but the points started to come for him.

    Petry has 1.18/60 and is 17th in the NHL among DMen with > 200 5v5 minutes.

    My next little project is to identify more of these guys.

    I wish I had kept of list of every poster and twitter handle that hated on Petry.

    Rishaug and Gregor seemed to have a contest on who could call him “soft” the most.

    Man.

    I call it the NYCOil 8 year rule. You know how LT says 5 years after a draft for prospects.

    Mine is 8 years for non-elite D prospects. Age 26 is when they break out and you can say what you have.

    Stralman, Petry, but even look at Schultz this year.

    This is why you do not move Larsson or Klef.

    And you want to prey on 23 and 24 yr old D with the toolkit but who have struggled. Teams get impatient like the Oilers did and you pounce. I mean, Montreal and Pittsburgh got good top 4D for a song. Larsson himself was a candidate for this but the deal came too late. In 2014/2015 he was a healthy scratch, in DeBoer’s doghouse and even went down to the AHL.

    Non-elite D take 8 years.

  92. spoiler says:

    Lowetide,

    Oh dear, not saying click bait on your part at all, but on Nichols. Which is partly their job, but sometimes blatantly obvious. Sorry for the misconception.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Frank Seravalli is on my show every Thursday, I work for TSN. I had him on last deadline and through the summer and he had a board which included players who left Edmonton. I am surprised you are surprised I would quote Frank Seravalli.

    Saravalli is a professional & (occasional) click bait articles are part of the biz.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo: We already traded for him.

    2.42 GF60 5on5

    Larsson ranks 9th out of 39 dmen who qualify at over 750mins 5on5

    9 pts all sit

    He is tied for 108th amongst dmen in the league

    That’s not a bad one to pick.

    Need to mind the WOWYs too

    GF/60 3.20 w/ Connor
    GF/60 2.04 w/o Connor

    Connor sees a slight boost with 6 of 0.16 GF/60.

    Interesting that 6 is has bettter GF/60 away from 77 than with.

    MInd you, with these sample sizes a lot of this is noise.

  95. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LMHF#1,

    Getting a Dman capable of putting pucks in the net would add a big threat for this team. Something they’ve lacked for a good while now.

    Dmen shots are also vastly over rated on the PP.

    League wide only 15% of PP goals come from point shots and point shot rebounds.

    The middle of the ice is where they are all scored.

    I’ve been examining the better powerplays and the Oilers set up is the same as the best ones, and they are producing.

    How do you account for the amount of goals scored as the result of needing to defend the point shot?

  96. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Saravalli is a professional & (occasional) click bait articles are part of the biz.

    Clicks are how you make money. I can’t stand the shameless 10 page slideshows but I can’t hate on a reporter for trying to get clicks/views.

  97. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Wolfpack:
    I can’t believe I am admitting this, but a small part of me felt sorry for the opposition last night. As an Oilers fan I have been in that same place so many times over the past decade that it is impossible for me not to feel some empathy. That team is not good.

    I would agree if the opposition wasn’t Shane Doan, Mike Smith & the rest of Dave Tippett’s motley Coyotes. Because fuck those guys.

  98. Jesse says:

    Hey Woodguy,

    Do you have a list of d-men that play the toughs somewhere, as per your WoodMoney data? I’d like to do some digging into those numbers and I’ve got your “List of QoC Player Names by Category 2016-07-17” but would rather not go through and see which d-men have played the most minutes with each of those Centres if it’s already been done.

  99. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They exist, and they pass very well.

    Poster boy is Stralman on TBY.

    Petry was a poster boy, but the points started to come for him.

    The ability to make the stretch pass (the ‘Lubomir’, if you will) would lead to assists with this Oilers squad – no?

    Even Stralman got 39 and 34 points in recent years. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LMHF#1: How do you account for the amount of goals scored as the result of needing to defend the point shot?

    Teams defend the Oilers point shot now.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LMHF#1: The ability to make the stretch pass (the ‘Lubomir’, if you will) would lead to assists with this Oilers squad – no?

    Even Stralman got 39 and 34 points in recent years. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

    I will lead to some assists for sure.

    The goal is to get the puck into the hands of the F’s in the ozone.

    I think they’d most get points off rush goals in regards to the stretch pass.

    Also,

    Oilers seem to be working the puck back to the point to open up the ice a bit on the cycle, that will lead to more points too

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I would agree if the opposition wasn’t Shane Doan, Mike Smith & the rest of Dave Tippett’s motley Coyotes. Because fuck those guys.

    Exactly.

    Fuck em.

  103. Bruce McCurdy says:

    First clean win over that kill-the-game crew on home ice since 2009 FFS. I looked it up & it was Ethan Moreau with the game winner (from Ryan Potulny & Lubo Visnovsky) with Souray, Hemsky & Horcoff also solving Ilya Bryzgalov in the Phoenix cage. Jeff Deslauriers (!) delivered a 36-save shutout in a 4-0 Oilers beat down. Oh, & Zack Stortini threw down with Paul Bissonnette. It’s been a while, 15 mostly frustrating, largely boring games. No clean wins, or even OT wins, a couple in the shootout but that isn’t the same as actually beating the other team in my admittedly old-world view.

    Maybe if Oilers beat them 10 or 20 times in a row I’ll start feeling sorry for them, though I doubt it.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jesse:
    Hey Woodguy,

    Do you have a list of d-men that play the toughs somewhere, as per your WoodMoney data? I’d like to do some digging into those numbers and I’ve got your “List of QoC Player Names by Category 2016-07-17” but would rather not go through and see which d-men have played the most minutes with each of those Centres if it’s already been done.

    You need to do it manually.

    Sorry.

    Eta on a website that will do this for you is probably under 60 days or so.

    Here’s the link to do it manually: https://woodmoney-test-2.herokuapp.com/playernames/nick%20bjugstad

    Just change the name at the end, make sure to leave the %20 in there.

    Here’s a link to last year’s results: https://app.box.com/s/0wa8nk4v1o4teh3tv7rkjekcwoayzbmn

    The one you want to look at is “Elite Both”

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Fist clean win over that kill-the-game crew on home ice since 2009 FFS. I looked it up & it was Ethan Moreau with the game winner (from Ryan Potulny & Lubo Visnovsky) with Souray, Hemsky & Horcoff also solving Ilya Bryzgalov in the Phoenix cage. Jeff Deslauriers (!) delivered a 36-save shutout in a 4-0 Oilers beat down. Oh, & Zack Stortini threw down with Paul Bissonnette. It’s been a while, 15 mostly frustrating, largely boring games.No clean wins, or even OT wins, a couple in the shootout but that isn’t the same as epactually beating the other team in my admittedly old-world view.

    Maybe if Oilers beat them 10 or 20 times in a row I’ll start feeling sorry for them, though I doubt it.

    Haha!

    We got no quarter.

    Have none to give back.

  106. Jethro Tull says:

    oscarmike: EDM 2017 1st pick+DAL 2017 1st round for Shattenkirk

    Two 1st rounders for renting Shattenkirk. Nope, not even a signed Shattenkirk, unless it’s the mother of all value contracts. And he’s already indicated he wants to stay state side.

  107. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Clicks are how you make money. I can’t stand the shameless 10 page slideshows but I can’t hate on a reporter for trying to get clicks/views.

    Gord, I hate slideshows.

    Agreed, as I stated above, click “baiting” is part of their jobs. But it also calls into question the legitimacy of an opinion (etc)… if the opinion/argument/etc. seems beyond the level of what appears to be reasonable/historical/etc.

    The list above didn’t pass the smell test for me. But I certainly didn’t mean to imply LT himself was click-baiting. Never even crossed my mind as there is no obvious benefit to him. His own list is offered above in his typical low key style.

  108. Bruce McCurdy says:

    oscarmike:

    Maroon-Mcdavid-Draisaitle
    Lucic-Toffoli-Silverberg
    Drake-Eakins-Pujujarvi
    Pou-Letestu-Kassian

    I certainly agree that right side would be hard to spell.

  109. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Lowetide,

    Oh dear, not saying click bait on your part at all, but on Nichols.Which is partly their job, but sometimes blatantly obvious.Sorry for the misconception.

    Oh good grief. Yes, I misunderstood. I only use Nichols when only source available. Haha. Man. I am going to be murder when I am 70. 🙂

  110. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ducey: Excuse my limited math skills but isn’t an improvement from 7.5 (or so) to 8.0 goals/60 on the PP equivalent to one goal every 12 games (assuming 5 min of clear PP per game)?

    Not sure its worth getting excited about 3 extra goals the rest of the way out.Eberle is likely to improve his shooting % to cover that off just by himself.

    It’s actually 1 goal every 24 games. At 0.5 G/60 you’d need 120 minutes to add a goal. At 5 mins a game on the PP that’s 24 games. At 6, it’s 20. Call it 4 goals a season.

  111. Chachi says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Clicks are how you make money. I can’t stand the shameless 10 page slideshows but I can’t hate on a reporter for trying to get clicks/views.

    Why not combine hockey discussion and the sleazy clickbait slideshows? For example: You’ll NEVER guess what Tommy Salo’s wife looks like now!

  112. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Why do I need to control for anything for TOI?

    Well that’s the second big WHOOSH over my head today. Gonna go back to bed now. Thought the number in brackets in the original post was FF percentage or CF.

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Matt Cane tweeted a thread about using Fenwick SV% instead of SV% to evaluate goalies.

    Really interesting stuff, read all his tweets on it: https://twitter.com/Cane_Matt/status/821443131400978435

  114. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Haha!

    We got no quarter.

    Have none to give back.

    None whatsoever. Fuckem.

    Can you fill me in on V2.0, as I was out f the loop for a few threads & appear to have missed it. A kinder, gentler Woodguy? Not going all softwood on us now, are you?

  115. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Benning has superior results.

    Actually, WG, this is the part that was bothering me. Not the TOI part. I take back my WHOOSH, lol.

    I may have to add the WHOOSH back in later depending on your response.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    spoiler: Well that’s the second big WHOOSH over my head today.Gonna go back to bed now.Thought the number in brackets in the original post was FF percentage or CF.

    Ah ha!

    That’s the disconnect.

    My number was just TOI% vs the Elite Forwards, nothing more than that.

    Very useful when figuring out QoC that a Dman sees.

    Benning and Shattenkirk see the Elite Forwards of the league an identical percentage of their TOI so they are very comparable (to start with)

    You’re right that once you start looking at results you need to be very, very careful on your conclusions due to team/team mate effects, and of course sample size.

    I post the Relative CF% and Relative DFF% vs Elite Forwards sometimes because its interesting to look at, but just using TOI% vs Elites we can couch most of their regular fancystats with more meaning via QoC.

    Hope that clears it up.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: None whatsoever. Fuckem.

    Can you fill me in on V2.0, as I was out f the loop for a few threads & appear to have missed it. A kinder, gentler Woodguy? Not going all softwood on us now, are you?

    No, sometimes my original account doesn’t work, but this one seems to.

    Yesterday both worked, so I had the v2.0 going on my phone and my original one going on my desktop.

    My home desktop browsers don’t seem to like my original login. My phone, as always, is variable.

  118. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes, I used 5v4.

    Numerators are not the same though, but you’re right that they are close.

    Another reason I like GF/60 is because it “boosts” the number when you score quickly.

    The best powerplays often do not take long to score.

    This is going to come off as pedantic. I like to keep things clear in my own head and that means getting small details right. So this is me thinking out loud about what you said.

    – scaling one set of numbers by a constant will not affect correlation with another set of numbers; that’s why I said the numerators are the same

    – a correlation of 0.98 means that the two measurements are measuring the same thing, not that one is right and the other is close; you’re thinking one way of measuring PP effectiveness is telling you more than the other way; I’m saying they’re equally good because that’s how the arithmetic works

    – most power plays end in failure; CBJ scores on a little over 1 in 4 of their opportunities; if 2 teams have the same number of PP opportunities and they score the same number of goals, the team that scored its goals faster will have a slightly higher GF60 and the difference will decrease as the number of opportunities increase; that difference will be swamped by any difference in actual PP goals scored by the two teams

    – “the best powerplays often do not take long to score” probably means that the first unit is doing most of the scoring because they get the upfront time of a PP; but this is to be expected; it’s not rational for a coach to give less of the PP time opportunity to the unit that does worse in converting that time to a goal;

    – teams aren’t favored to score on the PP (only 1 in 4 for the best); when they score, they don’t take long to score because it’s the first unit that’s scoring and they get the first shot at the PP

  119. Ducey says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s a bit of hyperbole. (Eberle)

    If your math is right (didn’t check) then that’s another 7 goals or so a year.

    I think its just under 3.5 goals/per, so that’s two wins more.

    That’s pretty huge.

    2 wins per season.1 the rest of the way.

    And if Eberle gets another 80 shots and improves from 7% to 11% in shooting that’s 3 goals right there. Not hyperbole. Math.

    Certainly if they can improve the PP great, but to bring in two RH shooters to do it to get one win they might get anyway from an Ebs improvement. Not worth it.

  120. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No, sometimes my original account doesn’t work, but this one seems to.

    Yesterday both worked, so I had the v2.0 going on my phone and my original one going on my desktop.

    My home desktop browsers don’t seem to like my original login.My phone, as always, is variable.

    Yeah. Sure.

  121. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No, sometimes my original account doesn’t work, but this one seems to.

    Yesterday both worked, so I had the v2.0 going on my phone and my original one going on my desktop.

    My home desktop browsers don’t seem to like my original login.My phone, as always, is variable.

    Your phone swings both ways. Or should I say, shoots left AND right.

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    You’re right.

    It did come off as pedantic.

    🙂

    Its also correct.

    Top 15 via GF/60 (used all PP so I would match the NHL better)

    Columbus 9.74
    Pittsburgh 8.92
    Toronto 8.75
    Tampa Bay 8.32
    Buffalo 8.11
    NY Rangers 8.02
    Montreal 7.91
    St. Louis 7.9
    Anaheim 7.6
    Edmonton 7.59
    Philadelphia 7.55
    Calgary 7.12
    Washington 6.86
    Minnesota 6.72
    Chicago 6.38

    Top 15 via NHL metric (PP%)
    Columbus Blue Jackets 26
    Toronto Maple Leafs 23.8
    Pittsburgh Penguins 23.3
    Tampa Bay Lightning 23.3
    Philadelphia Flyers 22.6
    New York Rangers 22.4
    Buffalo Sabres 22.3
    St. Louis Blues 21.8
    Montréal Canadiens 21.7
    Anaheim Ducks 21.4
    Edmonton Oilers 20.4
    Calgary Flames 20.3
    Minnesota Wild 20.2
    Washington Capitals 18.6
    Chicago Blackhawks 18.6

    That’s pretty close

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ducey: 2 wins per season.1 the rest of the way.

    And if Eberle gets another 80 shots and improves from 7% to 11% in shooting that’s 3 goals right there. Not hyperbole. Math.

    Certainly if they can improve the PP great, but to bring in two RH shooters to do it to get one win they might get anyway from an Ebs improvement. Not worth it.

    You’re still minimizing the impact on a season.

    Wins are pretty huge.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Yeah. Sure.

    Button it old man, its the truth.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Your phone swings both ways. Or should I say, shoots left AND right.

    Ha!

    I wouldn’t doubt either with that damn thing.

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    All right, off to Vegas.

    Cheers all.

  127. Aron_S says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Now that I know that 2.0 is WG posting from his phone, I kind of feel like the account’s name should actually be WoodGuy’s Phone. Someone should photoshop a phone into your profile pic’s hand. It writes (or lefts) itself!

    Also can someone point me to where you can find Fenwick Save Percentage for goalies? I read the Cane piece WG posted and am intrigued.

  128. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ha!

    I wouldn’t doubt either with that damn thing.

    never gp full 2.0. just ask verdad

  129. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think teams really overpay for Dman points and often they team isn’t scoring much more with them on the ice, so they are just cannibalizing points from forwards.

    Amen:

    Canibalizing is the perfect word.

    Welcome to the club!
    It took 8 years!
    But welcome.

    I really love when you discover the points I argued years ago!

    Your data base is really a reflection of Desjardins Behind the net.
    I credit him with accelerating the analytics community. quite quickly after it came out.

    I realized you could generate a situational x,y,z graph based on Comp/Team/ZS
    as I stated many years in the past.

    I broke down my groups in
    1. upper, mid, lower,
    2. 1st , 2nd, 3rd, 4th line 4 levels from elite to dregs.
    3. ZS structured into Standard deviations from the mean.
    Behind the net provided all the data for Goal dif; Shot Dif; Corsi dif.
    It allowed me to establish differentials means and ranges for a given Players situation.
    Mean GF/60 +/- GF/60
    My favourite:
    Horcoff’s bad +/- year actually being right at the mean for that given situation. People spouting off when they had no f….. clue that for what he was asked to do. he was swimming nicely!

    I went on and on for years to try to have you guys get it.

    Their are still 3 pahses of analytic theory that you guys do not get yet.

    As such I will be trying to get a basic Post Diploma Bach of Science at Univ. of Athabasca.
    concentrating on Applied Math and comp database development.

    I have believed that a cap friendly Dman is a
    1. Strong Even HD Defence (top 60 HDSH/60)
    2. Good EVA/60 (.50-.65) and quick transition reads.
    Here is a list of HD Dmen withEVA/60 close to the range
    Manson .52
    Lindholm .65
    Vatanen .60

    Hjarlmasson .60
    Timonen .58
    Campbell .49

    Chara .53
    K. Miller .51
    C. Miller .54

    Brodie .87

    Sarich .67

    Deykeyser .70
    B. Smith .51 UFA
    Marchenko .48

    Larsson .58
    Benning .58
    Sekera (2nd comp) .61

    Ekblad .57
    Kindl .48 UFA

    Voynov .66
    Doughty .52
    Martinez .53
    Reghr .49

    Suter .67
    Brodin .45
    Scandella .55
    Spurgeon .54

    S. Weber .66
    Beaulieu .55

    M. Irwin .58
    Ekholm .65

    A. Greene .47

    Boychuk .65

    Methot .48

    Cole .67
    Matta .66

    Vlasic .66
    Martin .58

    Shattenkirk .54 UFA
    Parayko .95

    Stralman .57
    Hedman .92

    Polak .61

    Tanev .53
    Sbisa .59 his game has gotten better the last 2 seasons.

    Niskanen .60
    Alzner .53 UFA
    Carlson .92
    Orpik .76

    Meyers .63

    3. Strong PKGA Dmen

    Dmen that cover/covered 1; 2; 3.
    Manson
    Lindholm
    Campbell
    K. Miller
    Marchenko
    Larsson
    Ekblad
    Brodin
    Ekholm
    A. Greene
    Matta
    Polak
    Parayko
    Sbisa
    Niskanen
    Alzner
    Orpik
    Carlson

    Strong HD and PK D that do not get EVA/60 rate.
    Stoner .41
    J. Johnson .43
    Davidson .38
    Lovejoy .23
    Staal .42
    Dillon .42
    Gunnarsson .30

    You see a lot of the names I like to bring up!

    A dman generating .70 PKGA/60 less than League average 6.00
    Manson ELC
    Davidson 1.43M
    Cole 2.1M
    polka 2.25M
    Lovejoy 2.67M
    Alzner 2.8M UFA
    Gunnarsson 2.9M
    Sbisa 3.6M
    Ekholm 3.75M
    Carlson 3.97M
    Larsson 4.167M
    Lindholm 4.8M
    Greene 5.0M
    Orpik 5.5M

    costs a lot less capwise
    than a Dman who generates .70 GF more than league average 6.00
    Josi 4.0M
    Klingberg 4.25M
    Vatanen 4.8M
    Lindholm 4.8M
    Striet 5.25M
    Barrie 5.5M
    Sekera 5.5M
    Leddy 5.5M
    Keith 5.54M
    Hamilton 5.75M
    Niskanen 5.75M
    Boychuk 6.0M
    Yandle 6.35M
    Giordano 6.75M
    Seabrook 6.87M
    Chara 6.92M
    Doughty 7.0M
    Letang 7.25M
    ByFuglien 7.6M
    S. Weber 7.86M
    Burns 8.0M
    Subban 9.0M
    Shattenkirk UFA
    Kindl UFA
    Yet they achieve the same Special teams Goal differential relative to league average.

  130. Cahoon says:

    Woodguy saying guys like Shat and Barrie are overrated, where is Mr.Thebear? He needs to hear people moving further towards his views.

  131. Cahoon says:

    Hahaha ask and you shall receive.

  132. Cahoon says:

    rickithebear,

    Your post makes Lindholm look godlike as he is on both lists at 4.8mill

  133. Android says:

    Given that things in Anaheim are going to be a mess come expansion time, what do the informed folks here think it would take to pry away Jakob Silfverberg?
    Seeing as you would probably have to send back expansion protected assets, would it even be worth doing?

  134. Pechetr says:

    Such a fickle fanbase. How can anyone be down on Chiarelli? The team is competitive and not the laughing stock of the league for the first time in 10 years. We are in the playoffs currently people. My god what more does this fanbase want? You wanted bold moves, you wanted change at the top and you wanted a competitive team iced. You have received all of it! Are you all still sulking about Taylor Hall? Give me a break! The team is the best it has been in over a decade. If this team makes the playoffs, Chiarelli should be given the keys to the city. What does it take? Wow….just wow!

  135. rickithebear says:

    Cahoon:
    rickithebear,

    Your post makes Lindholm look godlike as he is on both lists at 4.8mill

    Remember last Summer:
    Lindholm (1st comp)
    K. Miller (2nd comp)
    Brodin (1st/2nd comp)
    Lovejoy (1st comp)

    Their is a reason!

  136. Lowetide says:

    Pechetr:
    Such a fickle fanbase. How can anyone be down on Chiarelli? The team is competitive and not the laughing stock of the league for the first time in 10 years. We are in the playoffs currently people. My god what more does this fanbase want? You wanted bold moves, you wanted change at the top and you wanted a competitive team iced. You have received all of it! Are you all still sulking about Taylor Hall? Give me a break! The team is the best it has been in over a decade. If this team makes the playoffs, Chiarelli should be given the keys to the city. What does it take? Wow….just wow!

    Well, he has paid severe prices to fix the defense, and in the case of Reinhart, we don’t even see what needed to be immediate results. There should be and must be a price paid by the general manager imo. Should he be fired? Many feel the answer is yes. I think he could and would have been fired with a poor start to the season.

    I would have approached the reconstruction from a different angle, but this is his chosen path. Whitey Herzog won a WS with jackrabbits in 1982, and the next year the Orioles won with an Earl Weaver style roster that was the exact opposite kind—walks and three-run homers.

    I don’t like much of what Peter Chiarelli has done, but am also not in his chair. I would have signed Jason Demers and kept Taylor Hall, he chose to acquire Adam Larsson and sign Milan Lucic. That does not look like a better bet from here, but again, and I do think we have the capacity to discuss this without yelling ‘apologist’ or ‘appeal to authority’ across the keyboard, we don’t know what we don’t know.

  137. Oilin4 says:

    Patrick Maroon 16-17 25 points; 17.2SH%. Career SH% 11.5
    Jordan Eberle 16-17 27 points; 7% SH%. Career SH% 13.5

    Jordan Eberle is in the worst slump of his career
    Patrick Maroon is on the best streak of his career

    Jordan Eberle still has more points this season.

  138. NativeNotFrench says:

    Aron_S,

    Agreed. That seems like a very interesting way to look at goalers. Would love to read more about it

  139. rickithebear says:

    Cahoon:

    I have seen a clear regression in performance from Klefbom
    and yet to see
    A hint of Def Resposibility from Nurse.

    But I stated last year that Tmac has developed Dmen’s HD ability in the past.

    Vlasic
    Braun……

  140. spoiler says:

    Cody Franson will likely be available this deadline.

    *runs for the hills*

  141. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: Remember last Summer:
    Lindholm (1st comp)
    K. Miller (2nd comp)
    Brodin (1st/2nd comp)
    Lovejoy (1st comp)

    Their is a reason!

    Lovejoy looks done.

    Under-rated for years, but he fell off the cliff.

    I like Manson a lot but be careful of Lindholm zooming him. Fun fact is that Lindholm is much better with Manson than any other partner.

    That’s a first pair for 10 years.

  142. russ99 says:

    Meh, you guys put too much value on offense, especially considered that offense is somewhat constrained under McLellan’s rush then cycle/volume shot systems.

    The defense corps is playing well together in our zone, anything else is bonus after the D-zone wasteland the last 10 years.

    RW and C are much bigger needs and will be cheaper to acquire than the prototypical RH point shot D.

  143. Woodguy says:

    Android:
    Given that things in Anaheim are going to be a mess come expansion time, what do the informed folks here think it would take to pry away Jakob Silfverberg?
    Seeing as you would probably have to send back expansion protected assets, would it even be worth doing?

    He’s a top 20 RW imo.

    2 more years at 3.75MM.

    I’d pay quite a bit for him.

    Not sure what ANA would want.

    Probably a good young F who doesn’t need to be protected.

  144. Woodguy says:

    Aron_S:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Now that I know that 2.0 is WG posting from his phone, I kind of feel like the account’s name should actually be WoodGuy’s Phone. Someone should photoshop a phone into your profile pic’s hand. It writes (or lefts) itself!

    Also can someone point me to where you can find Fenwick Save Percentage for goalies? I read the Cane piece WG posted and am intrigued.

    I like it except my home PC is the machine that hates my normal login the most.

    I’m able to use it now on my phone.

    I like the idea though, may change it to Woodguy’s phone.

    Also,

    corsica.hockey —> Goalies

    FSV%

  145. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    you still shouldn’t use goals against to rate Dmen.

  146. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Matt Cane tweeted a thread about using Fenwick SV% instead of SV% to evaluate goalies.

    Really interesting stuff, read all his tweets on it: https://twitter.com/Cane_Matt/status/821443131400978435

    On the Matt Cane thread on FSv%:

    – FSv% is highly correlated to Sv%; 0.98 is what I get for this year’s data for goalies who’ve played at least 10 games; you’re measuring the same thing: partly defensive play, mostly the goalie’s ability to keep the puck out of the net

    – missed shots don’t just happen because shooters are aiming for spaces the goalie leaves open; they happen because shooters don’t have time to shoot or aim; that’s on the defense

    – the fact that Matt says FSv% is more repeatable year over year than Sv% should ring a bell that this is probably because of team play rather than individual play

    – in DTMAboutHeart’s article with the bar chart on split half correlations, he says the high correlations are evidence that forcing shooters to miss shots is a repeatable goalie skill; David Johnson has some nice sensible comments on that at the bottom of the article directing DTM’s attention to team play; the comments didn’t get a response from the author

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/23/xsv-is-a-better-predictor-of-goaltending-performance-than-existing-models/

  147. unca miltie says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    All right, off to Vegas.

    Cheers all.

    Enjoy..its a little cool down here..was only 4 centigrade this morning in Palm Springs

  148. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    All right, off to Vegas…

    …ninety five minutes…

    “I’m back!”

  149. Georges says:

    Lowetide: Well, he has paid severe prices to fix the defense, and in the case of Reinhart, we don’t even see what needed to be immediate results. There should be and must be a price paid by the general manager imo. Should he be fired? Many feel the answer is yes. I think he could and would have been fired with a poor start to the season.

    I would have approached the reconstruction from a different angle, but this is his chosen path. Whitey Herzog won a WS with jackrabbits in 1982, and the next year the Orioles won with an Earl Weaver style roster that was the exact opposite kind—walks and three-run homers.

    I don’t like much of what Peter Chiarelli has done, but am also not in his chair. I would have signed Jason Demers and kept Taylor Hall, he chose to acquire Adam Larsson and sign Milan Lucic. That does not look like a better bet from here, but again, and I do think we have the capacity to discuss this without yelling ‘apologist’ or ‘appeal to authority’ across the keyboard, we don’t know what we don’t know.

    LT, do you really believe Chiarelli was vulnerable after a year on the job? If the team puts up around 70 points again, is he the one in trouble or TMac? Don’t GM’s last longer than coaches? Who would do the firing? Who would the organization turn to? I think Chia probably has a lot more rope given our history and his.

    Thank goodness 70 points is a very, very low probability outcome for this season by the way.

    Also, Larsson is a different style of defender than Demers, no? It was kind of nice seeing how he snuffed out Arizona sorties last night along with the why the heck is he chasing that guy moment.

  150. Jesse says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    No apologies necessary! Thanks for the help!

  151. Georges says:

    rickithebear:
    Cahoon:

    I have seen a clear regression in performance from Klefbom
    and yet to see
    A hint of Def Resposibility from Nurse.

    But I stated last year that Tmac has developed Dmen’s HD ability in the past.

    Vlasic
    Braun……

    What do you think of our defense this year? How does it rank?

  152. Davesshop says:

    Lowetide,

    When the camera panned to Chiarelli when the Reinhart trade was announced, he looked shocked. At that moment i felt and I still believe the cost was way too high and so does he. Something stinks about the whole trade. I have no issues with any of his deals since.

  153. N64 says:

    Lowetide: we don’t know what we don’t know.

    Well there are the Known Unknown Pleasures and then there are the Unknown Unknown Pleasures. The ride North passes through interesting country.

  154. vangolf says:

    Lowetide: ….Should he be fired? Many feel the answer is yes….

    Sorry to pick out one statement (and hopefully not damage its context), but I am curious what this statement actually means. Who are the “many”? “Many” people think Elvis is still alive and the moon landing was faked.

    I either don’t believe or have reason to believe that anyone in any hockey circle (oilers internally, media, etc.) actually considered the notion of firing Chia. He is Nicholson’s guy.

  155. khildahl says:

    N64: Well there are the Known Unknown Pleasures and then there are the Unknown Unknown Pleasures. The ride North passes through interesting country.

    It’s Known that the hitherto-Unknown Pleasure of watching a winning hockey team is pretty Pleasant.

  156. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Davesshop,

    Missing out on Hamilton + Bob Green telling him Reinhart was a stud who might be just as good as Hamilton perhaps?

    Even though the quote from Green at time of trade was that he had not seen him in the AHL and I nearly blew a gasket at that because all the Isles’ bloggers were talking about how Reinhart had struggled so much, looked like a bust and that Pulock had passed him. They were ecstatic with the trade.

    That trade remains baffling to this day to me, even though I have heard all the reasoning why from other posters here

  157. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide,

    Part of assessing Chiarelli’s work is really evaluating what kind of player Larsson is and the value he brings to the team. Very difficult for a defensive D.

    Of late though I’ve really begun to take notice of Larsson’s play and have observed how skillfully he’s able to dispossess the opposing attacker of the puck. He’s really a hard player to appreciate statistically and it’s very hard to quantify his value to winning, but I’ve crossed the threshold and have become a fan. Larsson is legit, and I don’t think our GAA is as good with Demers serving as his replacement.

    With regard to Reinhart it was a bad deal and regardless of whether we would’ve selected Barzal or Conner or Chabot (my pick was Svechnikov), we’d have been better off not making that trade. In the end however, the play of Matt Benning almost makes the argument moot as the player has offered us what we would’ve hoped to get in terms of value with GR, with the added benefit of being right-handed.

    The Lucic contract will prove to be a lousy one in time, but signing Lucic signalled to the team a change in mindset and culture that can’t be overlooked. Teams need veterans and although he’s not living up to the dollar value he’s still brought something to the team.

    In all Lucic is probably Chiarelli’s worst move, but that also has to be taken into consideration with the emergence of Patty Maroon.

    Ergo, all of Chiarelli’s bad moves has a corresponding clear win (stronger defense, Benning, Maroon) that deserves a balanced assessment.

    It’s taken balls and it’s had its flaws but overall I’m appreciative of Peters work and think he deserves his share of credit for where the Oilers sit in the standings.

  158. Wonder Llama says:

    I realized watching last night’s game that I was feeling almost complete confidence that the Oilers would win. I can’t remember the last time I felt that way. Truly an unknown pleasure.

    P.S. Great album in a year (1979) of great albums: London Calling, Entertainment!, Fear Of Music, Damn the Torpedoes, Regatta de Blanc, Setting Sons, Rust Never Sleeps, The Wall…

  159. fifthcartel says:

    Interesting stuff on Insider Trading.

    Lebrun saying the Blues may not consider themselves cup contenders and may want to recoup some assets for Shattenkirk, compared to getting nothing for Backes/Brouwer last year, so they’ll listen on him.

    Then McKenzie saying Shattenkirk wasn’t interested in signing long-term in Edmonton last summer but he might be looking more favourably on other options, including Edmonton.

  160. GMB3 says:

    fifthcartel:
    Interesting stuff on Insider Trading.

    Lebrun saying the Blues may not consider themselves cup contenders and may want to recoup some assets for Shattenkirk, compared to getting nothing for Backes/Brouwer last year, so they’ll listen on him.

    Then McKenzie saying Shattenkirk wasn’t interested in signing long-term in Edmonton last summer but he might be looking more favourably on other options, including Edmonton.

    Edmonton being competitive may play a role in that

  161. kinger_OIL says:

    Georges,

    – The circle of life of all GM’s in professional sport is identical:
    1) Hire new GM
    2) GM fires existing coach (anytime from immediately to “give him time to prove himself”)
    3) GM hires new Coach. GM: “we have our guy, shares the same philosophy”
    4) Next time team struggles, GM fires coach: “need a new perspective”
    5) When team struggles again, owner fires GM: Owner: “time for new philosophy”
    6) GO TO 1

  162. Scungilli says:

    After Woodguy trashing all of my ideas 🙂 I have come to the conclusion that what the team needs to do is fill the gaps with unsung vets that are capable. There are players coming along well but should be given shelter / a challenge.

    Acquire cheap and use assets to replenish the system. Sign UFA wingers if you need them but to me is Pitlick Slepy Cag going to be worse than a lot of players if you give them 40 games to settle? I’m not sure affordable players offer an upgrade over them.

    I believe that they are also concerned with contracts with much term blocking players that they like.

  163. kgo says:

    I think Sekera took the puck on the inside of the elbow…a very painful spot but not very vulnerable…he’ll likely have some sore tendons and a nasty bruise but should be able to play at 98%

  164. admiralmark says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Davesshop,

    Missing out on Hamilton + Bob Green telling him Reinhart was a stud who might be just as good as Hamilton perhaps?

    Even though the quote from Green at time of trade was that he had not seen him in the AHL and I nearly blew a gasket at that because all the Isles’ bloggers were talking about how Reinhart had struggled so much, looked like a bust and that Pulock had passed him. They were ecstatic with the trade.

    That trade remains baffling to this day to me, even though I have heard all the reasoning why from other posters here

    Agreed. This was a Bob Green blunder in my mind. Made worse by the fact Oilers already had a propensity towards nepotism. However, Green has made some good calls since then so I’m not going to say anything more negative about him. Nevertheless it was a disappointing call by management and scout at a time when they had a great bullet(s) to use, everybody knew it, and they blew it.

  165. Lowetide says:

    vangolf: Sorry to pick out one statement (and hopefully not damage its context), but I am curious what this statement actually means.Who are the “many”?“Many” people think Elvis is still alive and the moon landing was faked.

    I either don’t believe or have reason to believe that anyone in any hockey circle (oilers internally, media, etc.)actually considered the notion of firing Chia. He is Nicholson’s guy.

    When I say many, I mean many people I talk to here and online or on the radio show. No one in organized hockey has suggested that to me at any time.

  166. JimmyV1965 says:

    OilClog:
    Lol Ebs seen the playoffs as a kid Lordy.. The pats played 5 and 6 games.. He scored a point per game, yet came away empty handed. Severely.

    Understand the Ebs and flow of a player.. he hit a goal post and got robbed!… Sure looks like the league has figured out how to contain Ebs.. Sure looks like goalies know they have set up time when Ebs is shooting.. He could of with momentum alone pushed that puck across the line last night instead of trying to be pretty in the top shelf, Smith gambled on the bet, Ebs walked away broke.

    8 goals in 46 games.. 27 points. That’s playing majority along the most explosive player in the league.. Or with Nuge, or with Drai… With a huge LW no matter the line… If you’re not seeing a player that has checked himself out.. Talk to me about Ebs and flows.. Maybe if his underlying #’s provided some rest easy.. But they don’t! 11 shots in the last 5 games, that’s not a player trying to shoot himself out of it, when you’re labelled as the teams defacto shooter.

    I’m not sure imo there’s a $6million player here to help you in the playoffs against the Anahiems, Sharks, etc. This season he’s a shell of his former self with the puck, that some of the experts saying needs a sheltered 3rd line role. That’s unacceptable for this team. He’s an offensive specialist that was starting to show cracks last season, never sees a moment of PK, and is on the 2nd PP watching the 4th line C take up his spot on the half boards.

    Replacing him for Gagner doesn’t seem all that ridiculous and would improve the team if this is the new Eberle.

    Oilers sorely need Eberle to roll back the clock, or an upgrade.

    You should probably watch the games. I would argue Ebs was our best forward last night. By the way, when you hit the post it’s not counted as a shot. He’s had three or four of those n the last two games.

  167. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pechetr:
    Such a fickle fanbase. How can anyone be down on Chiarelli? The team is competitive and not the laughing stock of the league for the first time in 10 years. We are in the playoffs currently people. My god what more does this fanbase want? You wanted bold moves, you wanted change at the top and you wanted a competitive team iced. You have received all of it! Are you all still sulking about Taylor Hall? Give me a break! The team is the best it has been in over a decade. If this team makes the playoffs, Chiarelli should be given the keys to the city. What does it take? Wow….just wow!

    I think you’re allowed to critique the GM, even if you think he’s doing a good job. I think there’s valid concern that he does not maximizer the trade value of high end players. Does that mean I think he sucks? Not at all.

  168. Oilanderp says:

    LT, you spend quite a bit of time in this article suggesting that the OIlers suck at drafting. Then you claim that Chia needs to acquire more picks. For what? To continue to suck at drafting even more?

    I know what you’re saying but… I also know what you’re saying!

  169. Scungilli says:

    admiralmark: Agreed. This was a Bob Green blunder in my mind. Made worse by the fact Oilers already had a propensity towards nepotism. However, Green has made some good calls since then so I’m not going to say anything more negative about him. Nevertheless it was a disappointing call by management and scout at a time when they had a great bullet(s) to use, everybody knew it, and they blew it.

    You’d think that essentially two first round draft picks could net an NHL ready player. I think that should net a pretty good player. IMO if that keeps up the team will be crippled as in the past. Everyone loses a trade, but we need some wins now to even out.

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