KEITH GRETZKY’S WHITEBOARD, VOLUME 2

In our last episode, we discussed the minor-league free agents (RFA and UFA) and also threw out some names of possible free agent signings via CHL options. That post is here. I have a few things to discuss tonight.

GERRY FLEMING

There was lots of reaction to Jesse Puljujarvi playing on Bakersfield’s second line when he went down to the AHL. JP played with Josh Currie instead of Joey Laleggia, while Tyler Beck ran with Ryan Hamilton and Anton Lander on the 1line. In the one game I tracked, it looked like the Lander line ran well past 20 minutes and the Currie line around 14 or 15.

Now, you and I can discuss the wisdom of using the Oilers top prospect in this manner, but if this is the plan set out by management there is no story here. I have long since given up on the Oilers using their talent in what we might be consider a rational way, and we await the Finn’s return to Edmonton.

If Gerry Fleming isn’t deploying Jesse Puljujarvi as Peter Chiarelli wishes, then I imagine the Condors have a new coach this summer. We have no evidence of a fracture, so I don’t think discussion of same should cause major upset. The Oilers endorse the slotting. Right?

FREE-AGENT LIST

I started a list in volume one, kind of a quick trip around the CHL, but wanted to expand on it today. These men are not listed in any specific order, but all are players of interest.

  • C-R Zack Aston-Reese, Northeastern University. He is 6.0, 190 and plays a heavy game. Certainly a Chiarelli—McLellan type and has skill.
  • LD Daniel Brickley, Minnesota State-Mankato. Oilers have been mentioned in regard to Brickley in the past, and he would certainly merit a roster spot. Can he break through the Leftorium?
  • LD Gavin Bayreuther, St. Lawrence University. He has been a player of interest for some time and was having a strong season year (more than a point per game) before his injury. Should have a lot of interest.
  • G Parker Cahagen, Army. I honestly didn’t know Army had a team, but this guy has a .938SP so he can play.
  • C Mike Vecchione, Union. Complete center who may be the most valuable player on this list. He is in his senior year and ripping it up.
  • R Tyler Kelleher, New Hampshire. A 5.06 senior is only a prospect if he is leading the world in points. Kelleher has 40 points in 22 games and someone will sign him.
  • RD Ryan Mantha, Niagra IceDogs. He was drafted by the NY Rangers, but they chose not to sign him. Mantha has performed very well as an overager (1996) and someone will sign him.
  • RD Aaron Irving, Everett Silvertips. It may be just an AHL deal, but I believe he can play pro and he addresses an extreme area of need for the organization.
  • L Ryan Graham, Swift Current Broncos. Fast winger with a terrific shot, Oilers need a bunch of these guys, maybe one will cash.
  • RD Darren Raddysh, Erie Otters. Former teammate of Connor McDavid, he is a steady defender with two-way ability. Nothing flashy, but he can play.
  • RC Austin Glover, Red Deer Rebels. He has good size and speed, enough skill to project to the pro level if he can stay healthy.
  • L Dawson Leedahl, Regina Pats. Big winger, good speed, skill and plays a responsible game.
  • L Dominic Zwerger, Spokane Chiefs. Fast and skilled winger blossomed this season.
  • R Zach Zborosky, Lethbridge Hurricanes. He might be eligible for the 2017 draft (October 15, 1996) so I may have him in the wrong spot. Impressive offense two years in a row, has good speed and has blossomed offensively the last two seasons.
  • L Scott Eansor, Seattle Thunderbirds. Small (5.09) two-way forward who has progressed through his junior career.
  • L Evan Polei, Red Deer Rebels. Big winger with skill and a very good shot. I bet the Oilers rate him.

50-MAN LIST

Here is the current 50-man list as I know it. My guess is that Laleggia, Moroz, Yakimov, Pochiro, Sallinen and Laurikainen may not return among the RFAs. Among UFA? Ference, Gryba, Fraser, Hendricks is my current guess, but we have a long way to go.

 

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60 Responses to "KEITH GRETZKY’S WHITEBOARD, VOLUME 2"

  1. lacking the apathy says:

    ***REPOST FROM LAST THREAD***
    If we were to try to go for a cheap, underachieving player with the possibility of a large payoff/reward scenario, what about Curtis Lazar? In the middle of a brutal season right now (0 points in 21 gp), was in the ahl earlier this season (3 g 1a in 13gp). Maybe a change of scenery could do him some good? Decent size, not bad hands, and according to his scouting report hardworking, possessing solid leadership qualities, good defensively, and not afraid to mix it up and get physical. He’s only 21, right shot, has experience playing centre, is an rfa after this season, and I’m guessing could be had for pretty cheap. Was trending well until this year with 15 point in his rookie year followed by a 20 pt campaign last season. Any thoughts?

  2. spoiler says:

    lacking the apathy,

    It’s entirely dependent on what the Sens think of him. I doubt they’ve given up, but you never know.

  3. David says:

    lacking the apathy:
    ***REPOST FROM LAST THREAD***
    If we were to try to go for a cheap, underachieving player with the possibility of a large payoff/reward scenario, what about Curtis Lazar? In the middle of a brutal season right now (0 points in 21 gp), was in the ahl earlier this season (3 g 1a in 13gp). Maybe a change of scenery could do him some good? Decent size, not bad hands, and according to his scouting report hardworking, possessing solid leadership qualities, good defensively, and not afraid to mix it up and get physical. He’s only 21, right shot, has experience playing centre, is an rfa after this season, and I’m guessing could be had for pretty cheap. Was trending well until this year with 15 point in his rookie year followed by a 20 pt campaign last season. Any thoughts?

    After jumping on the Oil Kings bandwagon through their dominating run, I have to say I have never loved another hockey player as much as Curtis Lazar. An absolute beast at the junior level who could play the game and beat you at it any way: speed, physical forechecking and grind game, high skill pretty plays. Power play, penalty kill, all the intangibles a believer in “leadership” and “gritensity” could dream of.

    I was so sure he was going to be a solid top six player in the NHL. Hasn’t turned out that way however. Now I can and do go to the well of blaming the organization for rushing him to the NHL and stifling his offensive potential but the fact remains it has been disappointing. All that being said if Chiarelli brings Lazar to Edmonton I will love him forever.

  4. Lowetide says:

    David: After jumping on the Oil Kings bandwagon through their dominating run, I have to say I have never loved another hockey player as much as Curtis Lazar. An absolute beast at the junior level who could play the game and beat you at it any way: speed, physical forechecking and grind game, high skill pretty plays. Power play, penalty kill, all the intangibles a believer in “leadership” and “gritensity” could dream of.

    I was so sure he was going to be a solid top six player in the NHL. Hasn’t turned out that way however. Now I can and do go to the well of blaming the organization for rushing him to the NHL and stifling his offensive potential but the fact remains it has been disappointing. All that being said if Chiarelli brings Lazar to Edmonton I will love him forever.

    I met Curtis Lazar a couple of times, what a nice young man. He is going to be a success in life just based on the way he carries himself. I am sure this mono and injury stuff has him down, but my goodness he is an impressive individual.

  5. spoiler says:

    Keep in mind Lazar had mono in the fall and that shit will mess you up for months.

    Boucher on Lazar just before the Xmas break:

    “I like where he is now,” Boucher said before facing the Ducks on Thursday. “Now, we can move on slowly to more. Before that, it’s like giving steak to a baby. He’ll choke on that. You have to have the right expectations. You don’t want him to suffocate on all that.”

  6. spoiler says:

    One of the interesting tidbits in the Matty article above (I don’t want to quote it per LT’s rule, so please click thru, tons of good stuff) is that any extension for Russell will come between the expansion draft and free agency.

    Asset management. It’s actually a thing.

  7. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    One of the interesting tidbits in the Matty article above (I don’t want to quote it per LT’s rule, so please click thru, tons of good stuff) is that any extension for Russell will come between the expansion draft and free agency.

    Asset management. It’s actually a thing.

    Yep. That was a nice item to read.

  8. stush18 says:

    I’ve noticed on maybe the last five or so games, Larsson has been carrying the puck and stepping up with really noticeable passing. I actually think it started the game when gene made a comment to him during an interview about basically bombing the puck away. Larsson gave him a death stare that my girlfriend would be proud of.

    I haven’t seen wheatnoils passing tracking for the oilers games recently, but I really think he’s getting comfortable in the system, and Tmac has loosened the reins on how guys play.

    Hard to hate that trade, at least for me.

  9. JDï™ says:

    Funniest thing I’ve read today:

    Roadrunners call up Duclair from the Coyotes.

  10. spoiler says:

    Calgary gets Nashville’s backup.

  11. stush18 says:

    Also am I the only one to think George’s is gmoney?

    *G*money
    *G*eorges

    Both stats heavy. Good posts. Georges just started posting here recently. Or have other people noticed and decided not say anything?

  12. spoiler says:

    James Neal breaks the ice.

  13. Ryan says:

    stush18:
    Also am I the only one to think George’s is gmoney?

    *G*money
    *G*eorges

    Both stats heavy. Good posts. Georges just started posting here recently. Or have other people noticed and decided not say anything?

    You are the only one.

  14. LadiesloveSmid says:

    JDï™:
    Funniest thing I’ve read today:

    Roadrunners call up Duclair from the Coyotes.

    Oil should get in on that. Davo+2017 1st+Jones+whatever for Duclair+Hanzal. Protect both

  15. Lowetide says:

    Lander recalled.

  16. stush18 says:

    Lowetide:
    Lander recalled.

    What would you think of trying him on a scoring line with drai or mcdavid?

  17. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler:
    Sorry for the threadjack…

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-world-edmonton-oilers-still-keen-on-idea-of-trading-for-st-louis-blues-defenceman-kevin-shattenkirk

    By Matty.

    No mention of Fayne.

    We don’t need a tell in terms of how the org feels about him, but it would be interesting to get a tell in terms of what plan they might have for him.

    No mention of Nurse either when building the future top 4… hmmm I wonder if that means they’ve got him locked in as 3rd pair over the next few years.

    Odd to think that the team that took arguably the larger risk in not exposing Davidson to waivers last year, would follow up on such a successful bet by exposing him to the expansion. I know the two aren’t related… but it still strikes me as odd.

  18. Ryan says:

    Ryan: You are the only one.

    Gmoney and Woodguy are my two favorite posters in the comment threads here.

    For numbers guys, let’s just say that they’re neither stoic nor alexithymic.

    Georges is far too reserved and deferential to be Gmoney.

  19. healthyscratch says:

    spoiler:
    Calgary gets Nashville’s backup.

    That’s probably a good thing. He’s been playing better than Rinne lately.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Now, you and I can discuss the wisdom of using the Oilers top prospect in this manner, but if this is the plan set out by management there is no story here.”

    Well, there is no story in the “nothing new here” sense. But there is a story to tell in a compelling and repetitious way that this old pattern has got to go.

    And, I encourage you and everyone else to keep telling that story in the hopes that its wisdom may win the day down the road.

  21. leadfarmer says:

    spoiler:
    Calgary gets Nashville’s backup.

    That backup is close to ousting the starter. If he wasn’t under 6 foot he probably would have by now. I can’t imagine how hard it is to make it this far at his size

  22. russ99 says:

    The only thing I can think of Pulju’s usage in Bakersfield is that they want him to earn the top line minutes.

    A real head scratcher, we better figure out optimal player development planning pretty soon.

  23. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    Lander recalled.

    Doesn’t bode well for Khaira’s injury.

  24. spoiler says:

    Ellis makes it 2-0.

  25. spoiler says:

    healthyscratch,

    I’m sure that was precisely Laviolette’s reasoning.
    😉

  26. spoiler says:

    3-0 Nash on the powerplay. Huge hill for the Flames to climb now.

  27. Clay says:

    I think that if the Oilers put in the same effort against the Preds as they did against Florida, it’ll be a long night. They’re no pushover.

  28. Professor Q says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Oil should get in on that. Davo+2017 1st+Jones+whatever for Duclair+Hanzal. Protect both

    Holy that’s a lot of good D prospects being shipped out…

  29. spoiler says:

    leadfarmer: That backup is close to ousting the starter.

    He has played 8 games. He isn’t close to ousting anyone in anything yet. But he is giving the coach confidence that he has a backup that can adequately spell Rinne. Finally.

  30. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Might just be Matheson getting old and forgetful on Nurse.

    Fayne is an utter mystery.

  31. spoiler says:

    Forsberg puts it out of reach. 4-0 for tonight’s good guys.

  32. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Professor Q: Holy that’s a lot of good D prospects being shipped out…

    oil are set on LD, if Nurse was expansion eligible instead of Davidson I’d suggest trading him

  33. Rebilled says:

    and thecoachdougweight wins in his Isles debut.

    Glad he’s way over there.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    spoiler:
    Forsberg puts it out of reach. 4-0 for tonight’s good guys.

    Only score I like to tune into flames games for.

    Nashville better drop a deuce in Edmonton tomorrow. Driving up to see my first at Rogers Place.

  35. gogliano says:

    I assume Broissoit gets his first start tomorrow so Talbot is fresh for the 4 point game on Saturday?

  36. spoiler says:

    Flames score two in 17 seconds because I jinxed the Preds. 2 goal game 3:26 to play.

  37. spoiler says:

    1 goal lead Preds, 47 seconds to go.

  38. Clay says:

    Now 1 goal game. Godless fLames.

  39. Clay says:

    Phew.

  40. spoiler says:

    Clay:
    Phew.

    Quoted for truth.

  41. Chaos Magian says:

    Ryan: Gmoney and Woodguy are my two favorite posters in the comment threads here.

    For numbers guys, let’s just say that they’re neither stoic nor alexithymic.

    Georges is far too reserved and deferential to be Gmoney.

    Are you saying GMoney is opposite George?

  42. Seismic Source says:

    ooohhh…only 17 shots against and the Flames let in 4. That’s gonna sting.

  43. Georges says:

    Sorry, stush18. Just G*eorges*.

    N64 and Bruce M., if you’re around, I have a bit more to offer on our Bettman points discussion today.

    N64:

    Thanks., Unless I’m well above the churn I’m skewing everything to uncover the .750 black box instead of the .500 box as many nights as possible. Even if my approach only opens the .750 box 10% more than the mean that will average me an extra 4.1 pts. The difference between the teams that chase and never catch up and the playoff bound.

    If this is actually happening, below the churn teams should participate in a larger proportion of 3-point games. Let’s use 0.600 as a cutoff for P%. This works out to 99 points or above. That’s pretty safe for playoffs. For below the churn, let’s use the range of 82 points to 98 points. This ignores bottom feeders. Here’s what I get for points awarded per games played for the two groups over the past 3 seasons:

    PointsAwarded/GP

    2013-14
    Above, 2.25
    Below, 2.25

    2014-15
    Above, 2.25
    Below, 2.26

    2015-16
    Above, 2.23
    Below, 2.23

    As a group, below the churn teams aren’t any more successful in uncovering the 3-point game.

    This doesn’t mean individual teams aren’t employing this kind of strategy, however, so I looked for that. Only 2 teams significantly stood out as having played in a greater proportion of 3-point games over the 3-year period: DET and OTT. Were they trying to game the system?

    I’m OK with a let’s not lose strategy going into a game – that means keep GA down. I’m definitely OK with a let’s play for OT strategy in a tie game late in the 3rd – that just makes sense.

    I’m just not sure about a let’s play for OT strategy going into a game. If teams in the middle had that much control over their fate, why don’t they just play for the win like teams at the top? How is OT any easier to get to than a win if the other team is not cooperating? Also, why would you play for OT if you’re ahead?

    That brings me to what Bruce posted:

    Absofreakinglutely. That the various groups have similar P/GP percentage simply reflects the fact that all teams know how it works, so it’s in everybody’s interest to play the system for everything they can. Integrity of competition be damned, in a tie game Job One in regulation for BOTH teams is always “avoid giving up the winner” and Job Two is “go for the win”. After the 60-minute siren Job One is essentially accomplished meaning more focus can go on Job Two. Plus that crazy 3-on-3, 5-minute limit, shootout means that things will be resolved one way or another. A coin flip for a point that DID NOT EXIST at the start of the game is a desirable result.

    Let’s look at the it’s in everybody’s interest to play the system for everything they can. The year before the Bettman point was introduced, about 20% of the games went into OT. After the Bettman point, about 22% of the games went into OT. 4 seasons later, the year before the strike, about 26% of the games went into OT. That looks like teams were playing like Bruce suggested, looking to maximize points by creating more 3-point games.

    After the strike and the introduction of the shootout, though, OT games went down to 23%. They maxed out at 25% in 2013-14. They’re running at around 25% this season. So there seems to be an upper limit on everybody going along to get along.

    On Bruce’s Job One and Job Two comment, before the Bettman point, a loss in OT would cost a team a point. So how do you think scoring rates in OT compared to regulation? Yep, lower. Teams didn’t want to give up what they had already earned. They tightened up.

    Once the Bettman point came around and they were guaranteed the point, they started playing hockey again. Scoring rates in OT were about the same as in regulation. So the Bettman point loosened up play in OT, i.e., made the game more competitive and entertaining.

    Another thing I think happened but I can’t confirm is that the Bettman point increased ties not just because teams were playing cautious in the 3rd period when the score was tied. It was also because the extra point increased the incentive for a trailing team to tie up a game. Those extra ties aren’t just about two teams deciding not to play and dampening competition. They’re also about one team trying very hard to catch up when down, i.e., increasing competition. As I said, I can’t confirm this because I don’t have individual goal data.

    Avoid giving up the winner is a subset of avoid giving up goals. Avoid giving up goals is a winning strategy. The past few Cup winners have been exemplary on this. But, as I said before, avoid giving up goals was a proven strategy before the Bettman point. Total goals scored in a game had been trending down though the 90’s and hit a low the year before the Bettman point was introduced. After bouncing around a bit since, total goals scored per game is a little bit above that pre-Bettman mark this season.

  44. stush18 says:

    Georges,

    Exactly what a gmoney would say….

  45. frjohnk says:

    Easier said than done but win the next two games and oilers can separate themselves from the Flames by 10 points.

    Lose both and the gap is 4 points.

    Of course I’m not factoring in any Bettman points. But two wins this weekend would be beautiful.

    Might have to play smidgeon better than against Florda.

  46. geowal says:

    Just back from Flames-Preds; Flames were much better than 4-0 score implied. Predator won’t be happy with (seemingly) putting a 4-0 lead at risk. Next 2 games shouldn’t be perceived as easy.

    Also we get Rinne

  47. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I trust Chia to handle the trade deadline.

    As Bruce said, it does not have to be either/or.

    I would think the Oilers both buy and sell.

    I think Hendricks is gone, maybe Pouliot. I think they bring in a right shot forward and a goalie.

  48. JDï™ says:

    stush18:
    Georges,

    Exactly what a gmoney would say….

    Just say that you think the NSX is slow and boring. The truth will come out then.

  49. GMB3 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    I trust Chia to handle the trade deadline.

    As Bruce said, it does not have to be either/or.

    I would think the Oilers both buy and sell.

    I think Hendricks is gone, maybe Pouliot. I think they bring in a right shot forward and a goalie.

    I’d prefer them to keep Pouliot. Only left wing with any speed and imo he matches up much better than Lucic with RNH-Ebs. His ability on the forecheck suits those two nicely. He’s had a tough run of games but in my opinion he brings several things that few of our other depth forwards can over.

    I think he will be big down the stretch for us and in the playoffs.

  50. Professor Q says:

    LadiesloveSmid: oil are set on LD, if Nurse was expansion eligible instead of Davidson I’d suggest trading him

    If you are set on trading them, then I’d suggest not all in one deal, especially with that First Round Pick +.

    It’d be better asset management and of course, you trade them in lump sum and said depth goes down the drain very quickly.

  51. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Agreed, there could be a lot of moving parts.

    I’d like to see them keep Pouliot till the summer and make a decision then. He’s useful depth, could revert to the meat, and I think he’d garner more then. But if he goes for say Patrick Sharp, I can live with it.

    I’d like to hang onto to Davey but with our dearth of draft picks, he’s probably our best chip. To Red Wings for Vanek, if they like our guy?

    Hendricks I dunno if someone will take. Even if we eat salary. Might need a dire injury situation on a team for it to happen. But maybe Hendricks and a 3rd gets you Boyle out of Tampa. He has less cachet than Hanzal so shouldn’t cost as much TBL has a ton of picks this draft they might even be willing to defer the pick a year.

    A backup goalie has to be a primary concern, although I guess we’ll know a little more after this weekend. One of the 2017 3rds for Neuvirth/Nilsson type. I’d actually like Miller, but doubt the Nucks do us any favours.

    Not saying all of these things, but there are options out there without either blowing up the future, or present depth. and I trust Chia too.

  52. seanjohn667 says:

    what? no Tim Raines column? I was all pumped about talking the ‘Spos.

    My favourite expo was probably Andre Dawson, tho Raines (and Carter) next. that was one heck of a team.

    I saw them in 1980, Raines in Left. Ron Laflour at Centre and Ellis Valentine in Right. never forget it.

  53. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    seanjohn667:
    what? no Tim Raines column? I was all pumped about talking the ‘Spos.

    My favourite expo was probably Andre Dawson, tho Raines (and Carter) next.that was one heck of a team.

    I saw them in 1980,Raines in Left.Ron Laflour at Centre and Ellis Valentine in Right.never forget it.

    Good call.
    Happy for Raines. Good example of statsguys convincing old school talking heads to wake up.

    P.s. I am not advocating for trading Pouliot. Just saying I could see it happening.

  54. Yeti says:

    Georges: Avoid giving up the winner is a subset of avoid giving up goals. Avoid giving up goals is a winning strategy. The past few Cup winners have been exemplary on this. But, as I said before, avoid giving up goals was a proven strategy before the Bettman point. Total goals scored in a game had been trending down though the 90’s and hit a low the year before the Bettman point was introduced. After bouncing around a bit since, total goals scored per game is a little bit above that pre-Bettman mark this season.

    Very nice post.
    So is the best solution simply to award 3 points for a win in regulation? Would that be the extra incentive to encourage teams not to adopt a risk-adverse strategy in the third period?

  55. Oilspill says:

    7 points out of 17th place overall. We can’t afford to have weak games.

  56. frjohnk says:

    Oilspill:
    7 points out of 17th place overall. We can’t afford to have weak games.

    9 points out of 1st place overall. We can afford to have strong games.

  57. Scungilli says:

    Pouliot’s brain farts BF/60 and 0 offense have cooked his goose I would bet for sure. Add in the injuries and this very likely was his last big contract. Too bad, he has all the tools to be good.

    CEO’s and hockey players – screw up your career and retire a millionaire!

  58. Ice Sage says:

    Oilers are really in uncharted territory: they will actually HELP Vancouver and Calgary’s playoff chances by beating Preds tonight.
    I’ll still be cheering for them but they’re looking like a team at the end of a winning streak. Rinne hasn’t been super-consistent this year so there’s a chance…

  59. Georges says:

    Yeti: Very nice post.
    So is the best solution simply to award 3 points for a win in regulation? Would that be the extra incentive to encourage teams not to adopt a risk-adverse strategy in the third period?

    I believe others have looked at this and concluded that it wouldn’t affect the standings much. The better teams would still be the better teams.

    Would the extra point increase competition and encourage teams to play a less conservative style?

    When teams were at risk of losing a point in OT in the pre-Bettman point era, OT scoring rates were a fair bit lower than regulation scoring rates. Winning a potential point had less value than losing an actual point. Makes sense.

    Now, in a late third period tie, teams are close to picking up a point with a let’s say a 50-50 chance of picking up an extra point. So their expectation is 1.5 if the game goes to OT.

    If teams push to decide a game in regulation because of the 3 points and their odds of picking up or giving up a goal in regulation are even, then their expectation is still 1.5. If they feel the odds are even slightly in their favor, then the math says they should go for it. So, in general, better teams are more likely to go for it than weaker teams. This wouldn’t affect standings but it would make the late stages of tied games more exciting. See ANA winning 2-1 last night by scoring late in the 3rd.

    But I think that would come at a price. Teams that have the lead would have more at risk in giving up a goal while team that are trailing have the same to gain as before. This would put a bigger premium on leads. Teams would lock it down even more once they get ahead meaning less exciting games when the game is not tied. See SJS winning 2-1 last night by allowing just 5 shots on goal after they got the lead early in the 3rd.

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