SHOOT THE MOON

The Edmonton Oilers have played games like last night for a long time, really since the beginning of the franchise. No matter how well coached the team, no matter how talented, poor luck married to lack of execution simply does not work. Back in 1982, or 1984 or 1988, or hell even 1997 and 2006, the Oilers could outscore addled games with enough consistency for the viewer to hang in even when it looked like the town team was about to cough up two points. Since fall 2006, this team has not had that gear, but this season, they have the firepower (McDavid) and the goaltending (Talbot) to win some of them. Last night was such a game.

NEW GIRL NOW, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 6-3-0, goal differential 0
  • Oilers after 47, 2015-16: 19-23-5, goal differential -25
  • Oilers after 47, 2016-17: 25-15-7, goal differential +10

That was a big game, make no mistake. Edmonton went up early, Jigglypuff put everyone to sleep and Florida—a good hockey team, even with all those injuries—came flying back and put the Oilers on their heels. It was a tough game to watch, because it is difficult to yell at the television for three full hours. Edmonton received grand goaltending from Cam Talbot, the Nuge line continues to recover, and Connor McDavid is a true savior. Strong word, but it fits.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom—Larsson went 19-8 in 18:25, I really think these two will form a great pairing in time. Larsson is a tough bugger, he really is, he must come from the Borje Salming province of Sweden. The pairing was 10-3 with Nuge and 8-4 with McDavid, while going 11-6 against Jagr/Marchessault and 11-4 against Trochek. A nice game by a strong tandem.
  • Sekera—Russell went 19-21 in 16:42, I liked both defenders in regular time and in extra time. Russell is never going to be a fancy stats dream, but he was excellent on the defensive tight rope in OT a couple of times. Went 8-10 with McDavid and 5-9 with Nuge, 5-6 against Trochek and 5-14 against Jagr/Marchessault.
  • Davidson—Gryba went 7-11 in 11:49, and I liked only one defenseman on the pairing. I don’t think it is fair to either man to judge them on last night, but if the coach decided to sit Benning because he felt Gryba was a better option in any way, well, I think that was a bad decision.
  • Cam Talbot went 28 of 31, .903.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Khaira—Letestu—Kassian went 3-0, and then when Khaira went down the other two went 8-6 together. Kassian and Letestu scored a goal, Khaira didn’t play a lot and we worry about his injury. ML was 82 percent on the dot, that is a fantastic number. 7-3 against Marchessault/Jagr, 1-3 against Trochek.
  • Lucic—Caggiula—Slepyshev went 7-10, and I thought they had some good looks. I don’t think this line will be on the ice together Friday (more in a minute), Kassian got onto a line with Lucic for a time, too. Caggiula went 0-3 against both feature line (Marchessault, Trochek) and that is somewhat expected.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle went 18-15 and looked mostly like the rock and roll trio we have come to love (ZZ Top? No, too rocking. Air Supply? Come on, this trio has some jam!). Eberle scored a nice goal and RNH sent one of those dandy passes, loved watching it happen even though it crashed my site.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl are actual fire. This line brought it big time in the third period and of course in overtime. Went 4-2 against Trochek, but 6-12 against Marchessault and 1-9 against Ekblad who was effective, physical and filthy against McDavid. Matt Hendricks, where are you?

GROOVY KIND OF LOVE

A little more than two minutes were left, as Connor McDavid lined up for the faceoff (RW side) in his own zone. It was overtime, another precious point on the line and Edmonton looking to push to 25 wins in 47 games—a mindbending proposition. In the early moments after the faceoff, Edmonton grabbed possession and sent 97 away, but Reimer sent the puck to the corner. OT settled in to the usual dance—strong chance one end, good chance at the other, and vice versa—and Russell eventually headed to the bench. Giant Leon and The One stayed out there, defending mostly but waiting for that one chance.

It came two minutes into the shift—TWO MINUTES—and Connor McDavid was a rocket anyway. Reimer stopped the puck, but the game was done and all he caught was a post-game souvenir. Enjoy it, Mr. Reimer, might be worth money someday.

YOU’RE RUNNING WILD

I talked about this with Lt_Eric and Bruce McCurdy yesterday, but would you shoot the moon, right now? Would you? If Peter Chiarelli could:

  • Trade Brandon Davidson and a conditional 2018 pick (1st if he signed) for Kevin Shattenkirk.
  • Trade 2017 1st and Caleb Jones for Martin Hanzal.
  • Trade not much for Reto Berra.

Would you shoot the moon, or more accurately, could you get behind PC doing it?

  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle
  • Lucic—Hanzal—Caggiula/Slepyshev/Puljujarvi
  • Khaira/Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian
  • Klefbom—Larsson
  • Sekera—Shattenkirk
  • Nurse—Benning
  • Talbot (Berra)

Can that team push deep into the playoffs, deep enough to warrant the asset cost? You would need to sign another bushel of college men, and there is no guarantee there. If Chiarelli does all this, and then signs another Benning and Caggiula, would you consider this worthwhile, or folly? What if he could get Shattenkirk signed?

I am still uncertain about it, but it does appeal to me. Winning during Connor McDavid’s entry-level deal, especially in year two, would make the team both more experienced and more famous—giving the youngsters an idea about how much it takes to climb high upon that mountain, and giving potential free agents an idea about just how close this team is to winning it all. There is some iron in this idea.

CHIARELLI TRADE RECORD

I have a feeling we may be seeing a very active trade deadline, with players coming in and leaving at a fairly rapid clip. If Peter Chiarelli is fishing in the deep end, this could get crazy—and the scouts may be burning miles in their Cadillac Eldorado’s for no good reason if some of these summer picks are deal. Fun times ahead!

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy day and a fun one, beginning at 10 this morning on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. What should the Oilers do at the deadline? I also want to take the pulse of New England, on the Bruins woes and the Patriots chances.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Raines to the Hall, Bautista is back baby, and pubis injuries.
  • Rob Soria, The Hockey Writers. An Italian guest and a Dutch/Irish host are going to have a good cry over Tim Raines making it to the Hall.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Oilers needs, this Shattenkirk smoke, deadline heating up.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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182 Responses to "SHOOT THE MOON"

  1. Woodguy says:

    WC standings via games. Last Wildcard spot set to 0.

    MIN 15
    CHI 11
    ANA 9
    SJS 8
    EDM 7
    STL 3
    CGY 1
    NSH 0
    —————
    LAK 0
    VAN -1
    DAL -3
    WPG -5
    ARI -15
    COL -18

    NSH gets the tie break over LAK today due to one less game played.

    Good to see the Oilers get a little air between them and the Wildcard fight.

    I said at the beginning of the homestand that they needed 8/10 for it to be a success after the SJS loss and they banked that last night.

    Its important because the next 6 weeks are pretty tough.

    Mostly road game, lots of playoff teams.

    They need the air now because they will come back to the pack (hopefully only a bit) from now to the end of February.

    I’m also going to post the pts% standings because for the first time since the 90’s (I think), the Oilers have a pts% over .600 after at least half the season has been played.

    Crazy, but true.

    MIN 0.709
    CHI 0.649
    ANA 0.628
    SJS 0.622
    EDM 0.606
    STL 0.567
    CGY 0.543
    NSH 0.534
    —————–
    LAK 0.533
    VAN 0.522
    DAL 0.5
    WPG 0.479
    ARI 0.364
    COL 0.321

    McDavid.

    We are sooooo lucky.

    GOILERS!

    *clap,clap*

  2. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide,
    “but if the coach decided to sit Benning because he felt Gryba was a better option in any way, well, I think that was a bad decision.”

    Actually, McLellan said that Benning was not feeling well and so they gave him a rest.

  3. jooks says:

    “Trade 2017 1st and Caleb Jones for Martin Hanzal.”

    Is Hanzal really worth this much? For a 3C pending UFA?

  4. N64 says:

    “Trade Brandon Davidson and a conditional 2018 pick (1st if he signed) for Kevin Shattenkirk.”

    Not without an extension.(Friedman still believes he’d only be a rental to the WC.)

  5. dcsj says:

    As to shooting the moon, no, I’d rather build a winner patiently, looking for longer staying power. I don’t think Shattenkirk would stay long term so I don’t think he is a reliable solution.

  6. Woogie63 says:

    We have 3 back to back series in the next 15 days, we might see LB Friday night.

  7. Lowetide says:

    jooks:
    “Trade 2017 1st and Caleb Jones for Martin Hanzal.”

    Is Hanzal really worth this much?For a 3C pending UFA?

    He isn’t really a 3C.

  8. Clay says:

    Am I the only one who had to google “Jigglypuff”?

  9. slopitch says:

    I would make both trades. Keep fishing the college free agents and building through later rounds in the draft. Its not just year 2 McDavid ELC, the Drai contract is coming too. I do think the 1st with Hanzal would be conditional as well though.

  10. Clarkenstein says:

    Past the half way mark and a few things are becoming very apparent. Gryba is regressing. A lot.
    I know they want him as a banger but I’d rather have Dillon Simpson for a longer look.
    We’ve seen some bad teams here obviously over the past years but none, NONE, of them have been his inept at clearing the puck out of their own end! They’re bad and getting worse.
    And Connor as brilliant as he is HAS to shoot the damn puck! A couple times last night I might have yelled at the TV too LT!!
    But did I expect them to be 4th in the Conf.? Uh, no.

  11. Thorin says:

    Clay:
    Am I the only one who had to google “Jigglypuff”?

    I thought it was an excellently-placed reference for those growing up with pokemon or super smash bros.

    Too bad I didn’t watch the game last night 🙁

    Woodguy:
    WC standings via games.Last Wildcard spot set to 0.

    MIN15
    CHI11
    ANA9
    SJS8
    EDM7
    STL3
    CGY1
    NSH0
    —————
    LAK0
    VAN-1
    DAL-3
    WPG-5
    ARI-15
    COL-18

    This is indeed incredible. They’re getting to that point where they’ve built enough of a buffer that they could lose a couple that they should have won, and still be in the running.

  12. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk: if the coach decided to sit Benning because he felt Gryba was a better option in any way, well, I think that was a bad decision.

    – and if you are trying to package up players for an updgrade on our D, it’s good to have him play every once in awhile.

    – I like this negociating: “We like Gryba, he’s a RD, he just can’t play enough, he doens’t get enough reps or he’d be better, but we would put him in a deal if you wanted him”

  13. bendelson says:

    Without a reasonable extension, I’d pass on Shattenkirk.
    At that acquisition cost, I’d definitely pass on Hanzal.
    I have far more time for a Strome type trade (player under control) for that 1st Rd pick.

    Interesting thoughts in Chia’s trade record…
    If the Schultz trade is trending down (due to his improved performance in Pitt?), then in which category does the Yak trade belong?

  14. Hall Awaits says:

    I think asset cost for Vrbata would be cheaper then Hanzal, though not as sexy of a pick up.

    Shattenkirk? Davidson and a conditiinal first all day long!

    Go Oilers!

  15. Dino says:

    In my opinion the Oilers are 2 competent RW’s away from a pretty good playoff team. Sure adding Hanzal and or Shattenkirk would be nice too but the price tag to acquire them might be a little too hefty especially considering they might not sign with the team come offseason.

    Maroon McD ???
    Pou RNH Ebs
    Loo Drai ???
    Khaira/Cagg Letes Kass

    Fill those ??? with good enough RW’s, let’s say Vrbata and Parenteau (or Sharp, or Eaves) for argument sake, and the lineup looks like this:

    Maroon Mcd Parenteau
    Pou RNH Ebs
    Loo Drai Vrbata
    Khaira/Cagg Letes Kass

    Not a bad cluster of forwards, plus Parenteau and Vrbata can still skate and add some speed to the wings. Then use any remaining asset to get a capable backup if LB isn’t enough and you’ve got yourself a good enough playoff team to compete.

  16. frjohnk says:


    Trade Brandon Davidson and a conditional 2018 pick (1st if he signed) for Kevin Shattenkirk.
    Trade 2017 1st and Caleb Jones for Martin Hanzal.
    Trade not much for Reto Berra.

    -If Shattenkirk is up for auction, it will only be as a rental and Davidson and a 1st probably is not a winning bid,
    -the 2017 1st and Jones is too much for the rental of Hanzal.
    -Yes, trade not much for Reto Berra.

    I dont believe we have the assets to pay for rentals.

  17. northof51 says:

    RE McDavid reaching 100 pts (102 actually!) in 92 games:

    Ovie hit 100 pts in 77 games, and Sid hit 100 pts in 80 games. If you adjust this year’s league average scoring up to 05-06 levels, Connor’s pace is akin to 100 pts in 82 games.

    We know what we have but with lower scoring over the ages, the average NHL fan and the record books will never be able to appreciate how good he really is.

    Instead you actually have people (from the dark, dark world of Leaf fandom) making public claims that Matthews is a superior player.

  18. remlap says:

    1) Amazing Jigglypuff reference. I did a double-take when I first read it. “Lowetide.. Referencing Pokémon..”.. We live in interesting times indeed.

    2) It’s obvious that the ice at Rogers is awful. I watched most of the game on my iPad and I could tell.

    3) McDavid. Unreal.

    4) What are peoples thoughts on all the OT games we’ve played this year? I saw a stat on the Panthers broadcast feed that showed the teams who have played the most OT games this year. Florida was #1. Close behind, tied for 2nd (if I recall) was Edmonton. Do we look at this as, we’re letting too many teams stick around? Or as, we’re clawing our way back into games that we have no business being in?

  19. Clay says:

    RE: Shooting the Moon…

    I think it’s one year too early. There’s just a bit too much wobble in the current group. The Larsson-Klefbom pairing is a good example; you can see it being a really solid pairing from here, but isn’t there yet. Davidson is having (we hope) an off year, Benning is green, Lucic is lost in the wilderness, etc.

    I feel that blowing yer brains out on rentals this year would be a waste, as it’s likely that what prevents a deep playoff run is not enough stability in the core group, not the lack of complementary pieces.

    I think, one year from now, with all the arrows pointing in good directions (especially on defense), Connor given another year to adjust to the “Connor Rules” the other 29 teams have adopted, the good Lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise and all that – the team will be in a much better place. Not to mention, it will give Chia one more summer to maybe find the 3C and some other parts on the cheap, rather than at the deadline premium.

    From a pure fan standpoint, there’s also something to be said for letting this group, as is, enjoy whatever success they have for the remainder of the year, without bringing in hired guns. I (for one) will hold this team up with the 1996-98 and 2006 teams, regardless of how they do in the playoffs, as the little engine that could. They’ve pulled this franchise out of a decade of Toronto-Maple-Leafs-level ineptitude, and I almost don’t want Chia to fiddle with it.

  20. TheGreatMutato says:

    Lowetide: Reimer stopped the puck, but the game was done and all he caught was a post-game souvenir. Enjoy it, Mr. Reimer, might be worth money someday.

    I sure hope he didn’t keep it – that 100 pt puck belongs to our dear Leon!

  21. Dustylegnd says:

    LT,

    Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle went 18-15 and looked mostly like the rock and roll trio we have come to love (ZZ Top? No, too rocking. Air Supply? Come on, this trio has some jam!). Eberle scored a nice goal and RNH sent one of those dandy passes, loved watching it happen even though it crashed my site.

    Think Duran Duran, Nuge like Simon LeBon having trouble hitting the high notes and some real pitch problems but talented in a deficient way.

    Pouliiot, like John Taylor lead guitar not really a new wave musician has a hard edge cast with very soft Bandmates,

    Eberle, like Nick Rhodes synthesized keyboards, very enjoyable to listen/watch but at the end of the day not a key member in the real success of the team

  22. N64 says:

    remlap: 4) What are peoples thoughts on all the OT games we’ve played this year? I saw a stat on the Panthers broadcast feed that showed the teams who have played the most OT games this year. Florida was #1. Close behind, tied for 2nd (if I recall) was Edmonton. Do we look at this as, we’re letting too many teams stick around? Or as, we’re clawing our way back into games that we have no business being in?

    Or Coach is gaming the Bettman point system. There are 3 tiers in the NHL.

    3. Can’t make the playoffs.
    2. Can’t make the playoffs without Bettman points
    1. Can make the playoffs without Bettman points

    Oil have moved up into the 2nd tier.

  23. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Hall Awaits,

    Nah, I’ve been thinking about this since yesterday after floating a similar transaction. The Conditional is too much of a sweetener for Davidson who is already cost controlled and will slot in offensively behind Parayko and Pietrangelo on the St Louis d which means his cost upside will likely be significantly less.

    Actually the more i think about it Russell will probably be the trade chip heading out. The coaching staff moved Russell back up with Sekera during the San Jose game and haven’t moved him off since. My guess is that putting Benning and/or Larsson down with Davidson was intended to get him back up to game speed before having him play his off wing. Russell while playing well with Larsson didn’t look as good as he does playing with Sekera due to just how friggin subtly good Sekera is.

    I could be reading way too much into this but if you could turn a one year rental who put up excellent yeoman’s work into a deadline asset that snags you Shattenkirk, who would solve the Lefty-righty (as well as vet-rookie) issue for a stretch drive, just as Nurse returns to the fold, without having to part with a potential medium term asset who covers the same points spread (i.e. Davidson) that is excellent asset management IMO.

    I like the idea of Hanzal and or Vrbata but would need to see the acquisition cost. I think LTs transaction is too high, no need to throw Jones in on that one unless Vrbata is part of the package (even then I don’t know if I’d trade Jones).

  24. jm363561 says:

    If the Oilers had conceded the goals that the Panthers gave up there would be lynch mobs downtown – three of the Oilers four goals came from brutal turnovers. Just shows we are not alone!

    Loved Ebs and Poo’s reaction on the equalising goal. Both players can occasionally give the impression they are not that interested but not last night at least as they crashed into an excellent hugfest.

    Another PP goal conceded. Sigh.

    Two crucial B2B games coming up against teams on the fringe of the Conference playoffs. Brossoit in goal Friday?

  25. Durag says:

    remlap:

    4) What are peoples thoughts on all the OT games we’ve played this year? I saw a stat on the Panthers broadcast feed that showed the teams who have played the most OT games this year. Florida was #1. Close behind, tied for 2nd (if I recall) was Edmonton. Do we look at this as, we’re letting too many teams stick around? Or as, we’re clawing our way back into games that we have no business being in?

    I think it’s a product of us not quite having the offense to put teams away right now. The defence and Talbot are strong enough to keep us in any game, and we seem to be able to get the “next goal” often enough, but when we’re up 1 or 2 goals and in control of the game we never seem to be able to get that extra goal.

    Last night was a perfect example. We were running riot and up 2-0, if we make it 3-0 there the Panthers close up shop and start thinking about who gets the window seat on the flight out of here. Instead, we can’t cash, they get a late one and we’ve got a game on our hands.

    Hopefully the resurgence of Nuge and Ebs is underway and that will go a long way towards alleviating that problem. If we can go to market and get a 3C that can jive with Lucic, so much the better.

  26. Scungilli says:

    Dustylegnd:
    LT,

    Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle went 18-15 and looked mostly like the rock and roll trio we have come to love (ZZ Top? No, too rocking. Air Supply? Come on, this trio has some jam!). Eberle scored a nice goal and RNH sent one of those dandy passes, loved watching it happen even though it crashed my site.

    Think Duran Duran, Nuge like Simon LeBon having trouble hitting the high notes and some real pitch problems but talented in a deficient way.

    Pouliiot, like John Taylor lead guitar not really a new wave musician has a hard edge cast with very soft Bandmates,

    Eberle, like Nick Rhodes synthesized keyboards, very enjoyable to listen/watch but at the end of the day not a key member in the real success of the team

    I like the analogy. There were two Taylors, John was bass.

  27. digger50 says:

    I’d pass on Shattenkirk, but look hard for another centre. Go easy with acquisition costs. With the exception of Lucic / Larson this team is mostly built on reasonable costs and finding players with “potential”

    Another talented centre would allow so many options in bottom six, and even if we move enters around, they would not go to waste. I feel this would be a huge difference maker and worth the cost.

    Defence think younger, like Montour.

    Rentals I like Iginla.

    Last year all I heard was “we are still not a good team” even with results obscured by injuries and youth. This year it has been “we are mediocre” and now finally the dawn has come and you can see it – the team is good, very good. Happening right in front of our eyes.

    Yes, definitely look for a boost at the deadline, but carefully.

  28. frjohnk says:

    N64: 2. Can’t make the playoffs without Bettman points

    Have you run the numbers to see where the Oilers would place without Bettman points?

  29. remlap says:

    N64: Or Coach is gaming the Bettman point system. There are 3 tiers in the NHL.

    3. Can’t make the playoffs.
    2. Can’t make the playoffs without Bettman points
    1. Can make the playoffs without Bettman points

    Oil have moved up into the 2nd tier.

    It’s funny you mention the gaming aspect to it. I thought about that a few days ago, possibly after the Flames game.

    A running “joke” of sorts around here is Eakins gaming for Corsi.. What if TMac has been gaming for Bettman points? I think you’d be stupid not to, to an extent. Tie game with 15min left? Lock er down, let’s get to OT.

  30. Scungilli says:

    Hanzal has injury issues, is 30 in two weeks and not exactly shredding this year. Fork in him.

    If we had to pay through the nose for Larsson and cap was mentioned as a factor in that deal, Davidson has a lot of value. Other teams have seen his quality, he’s a cheap top 4 D. The only drawback with him is health.

    Yesterday’s game to me was about poor puck management and the lack of a centre to help Nuge out. He needs a break. Russell has his moments but I’m not convinced when the other team has the puck. His breakouts are pretty good against low pressure teams, but first you need the puck back, or not in your end at all.

    For me, if the Leafs and Jets crap out of the playoffs, and the Oilers could acquire Trouba for Davidson + and Bozak from the Leafs for a fair price, and a back up, they maight have a shot at a run.

    Without the centre and another strong right side defender to help Benning the issues run too deep to put down a more balanced team in a series. One and done, keep your powder dry, finish the project completely in the off season.

  31. Oilin4 says:

    Seems Benning and Lucic got that bug flying through Edmonton (any parent of young children knows what I’m talking about). Let Benning rest for this critical weekend. Prolly should have let Lucic rest just to keep it away from everyone else, but I imagine it’s hard to tell Lucic to go home.

    This week is all about setting up for this weekend, including resting Benning. 3 points (2 in regulation), and we’re still in the same spot. 0, 1 or 2 points, and we start to sweat the out of town scoreboard. 4 points (all in regulation), cancel your plans in April.

    Don’t make those trades. We’re playoff, not cup ready. Save those moves for when we are.

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hey LT. I think you’re really overestimating the price of rentals at the deadline. I may be wrong about this, but I believe not a single first round pick was traded at the deadline last year. I remember there was a lot of commentary about that; teams finally smartening up and not wasting 1 st round picks. Anyway, no way do I spend first round pick on any UFA.

  33. blainer says:

    If I am trading a 1st rounder I would like it tot be next years where we have no 2nd this year.

    I am ok with next years 1st first and a prospect for three months of Shatts. Then trade at the draft for a 6the rounder.

    I think we should hang onto Caleb Jones he looks like a keeper but would also be a very valuable asset to trade to colombus to play with his brother on a top pair.

    I would like to see us pick up the best penalty filling forward available as well for maybe a third rounder.

    A backup Goalies is a must.

  34. Oilin4 says:

    remlap: It’s funny you mention the gaming aspect to it. I thought about that a few days ago, possibly after the Flames game.

    A running “joke” of sorts around here is Eakins gaming for Corsi.. What if TMac has been gaming for Bettman points? I think you’d be stupid not to, to an extent. Tie game with 15min left? Lock er down, let’s get to OT.

    remlap,

    https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/818531753451286529

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    I think all this Shattenkirk rumour crap is just that – crap. The Blues will never ever trade a player to a team they might meet in the playoffs. Heads would roll if they traded him to any team in the west and were beaten by said team in the first round.

  36. magneto says:

    If Tampa can’t get their game together I would be all over a move with them.

    You would think a 3rd and a prospect could get you Brian Boyle, lots of cup experience and is very good at limiting shots against in a 3rd line center role. Over 50% in faceoffs as well, 11 goals, and he would satisfy the local media’s “BIGGER” fascination.

  37. bendelson says:

    Interesting/difficult stretch of games over the next couple weeks. A tough 4 game set, followed by a break, than another very challenging 4 game set (then another break).
    Very curious to see if they remain in the chase for the division with SJ and AHM at the 55 game mark.

  38. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    magneto,

    Shoots left and 1/3 of his points are on the PP. The Left shot is the only reason I’m hesitant otherwise I like the suggestion

  39. classict says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Hey LT.I think you’re really overestimating the price of rentals at the deadline. I may be wrong about this, but I believe not a single first round pick was traded at the deadline last year. I remember there was a lot of commentary about that; teams finally smartening up and not wasting 1 st round picks. Anyway, no way do I spend first round pick on any UFA.

    Teams do seem to be smartening up but Russel still got a player, prospect and a 2nd round pick for him last year.

    I can’t see any way Shattenkirk goes to an in conference team without at least a conditional 1st included.

  40. jonrmcleod says:

    During the last minute of OT, the Florida TV crew was saying, “MCDAVID AND DRAISAITL ARE STUCK ON THE ICE! THEY’RE DEAD TIRED!” Little did they know.

  41. YKOil says:

    … Trade Brandon Davidson and a conditional 2018 pick (1st if he signed) for Kevin Shattenkirk.
    … Trade 2017 1st and Caleb Jones for Martin Hanzal.

    The first trade only works (to my mind) if the conditional spread is wide enough (1st if signed and 4th if not).

    The second trade – please no. Caleb Jones on his own would be more than enough and the Oilers would still be overpaying at that.

    Stay patient, build assets and depth. Pick up some value players at this deadline, maybe PC gets lucky with Maroon 2.0, and call it even. Stempniak the Great could be of interest if Carolina is out of it by the deadline, Pysyk perhaps from Florida or maybe a smaller bit like trading a piece of the Leftorium for Ville Pokka in Chicago. Also like Jarnkrok in Nashville.

    IF there is an absolute requirement to go for it then target long-term excellence and pay what Anaheim would need for Rackell or Silfverberg or what the Rangers need for Zibanejad (maybe they blink!).

  42. frjohnk says:

    Here is how the Western Conference looks when taking away points for OTL

    Minnesota 56
    Chicago 56
    San Jose 54
    Anaheim 50
    Edmonton 50**********
    Calgary 48
    St. Louis 46
    Los Angeles 44
    Vancouver 42
    Winnipeg 42
    Nashville 40
    Dallas 38
    Arizona 26
    Colorado 26

    Same criteria as above but take away shootout wins
    Minnesota 54
    Chicago 52
    San Jose 50
    Anaheim 46
    Edmonton 44*********
    St. Louis 44
    Calgary 44
    Los Angeles 42
    Nashville 38
    Dallas 38
    Winnipeg 38
    Vancouver 34
    Colorado 26
    Arizona 18************************************ This is a bad team!!!! Anybody who picked them to be above the Oilers,,,,, holy sheeeeet!!!!!!

    While the Oilers have gained 13 points from OTL and shootout wins, which is above conference average (8.7) they are still pretty good at winning in regulation that places them firmly in a playoff spot if we got back to pre Bettman points era.

  43. Lois Lowe says:

    The Marincin trade isn’t trending down. He’s a depth D man on one of the youngest D corps in the league. His team is also doing a lot of winning without him in the line up.

  44. frjohnk says:

    Iron Maiden to start the show.

    LT rocking it today!!!!

  45. Esa10 says:

    Since LT is throwing around trade ideas. I like the framework that LT used, just the wrong player.

    1. Davidson and Reinhart for Hanzel, Vrbata, (conditional pick if neither is signed)

    2. Gustavsson and a pick (2018 1st?) for Montour and Bernier.

    my 2 cents…

  46. Kepler62 says:

    No idea how you can justify “Clear Loss – Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson” — That’s a trade you can’t really begin to analyze for several more years, both players are still so young and so different that you might never be able to nail down a clear “winner”, One player has significantly improved his teams defence and adds a physical presence, the other still has elite individual stats but no supporting cast. One team is in a playoff spot, the other is not. Tough to say how much of that is due to either player.

    At the time of the deal everyone called it a “clear win” for NJ, now that the dust has settled I think the people (Flames Fans, rest of the league) who were quick to mock Chiarelli have shut their mouths and the picture is a little murkier right now, “I guess that Larsson deal is working out pretty good for the Oilers, I didn’t know he was that good – but still, they traded Hall” seems to be the verbal around the trade right now.

  47. jonrmcleod says:

    For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t do either of those first two trades. I don’t think Shattenkirk is enough of an upgrade to give away a first round pick. And I definitely wouldn’t trade a first round pick for Hanzal. And I for sure wouldn’t want to trade the next two Oilers’ first round picks. And I’d want to hang on to Caleb Jones.

    I’d prefer a win now and win later strategy. Trading Jones, Davidson, and two first round picks really empties the “win later” cupboard.

  48. Gret99zky says:

    Clay: Am I the only one who had to google “Jigglypuff”?

    Yes. There is no need to google.

    Just go back as see how the word is used in context: ” Jigglypuff put everyone to sleep…”

    Therefore, a Jigglypuff is either too much demon liquor or a typical Saturday night TML pre-game ceremony honouring….somebody.

  49. oscarmike says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Hey LT.I think you’re really overestimating the price of rentals at the deadline. I may be wrong about this, but I believe not a single first round pick was traded at the deadline last year. I remember there was a lot of commentary about that; teams finally smartening up and not wasting 1 st round picks. Anyway, no way do I spend first round pick on any UFA.

    Jets traded Andrew Ladd for Marko Danilo a 2016 1st round pick and a 2018 conditional.
    Andrew Ladd is the biggest UFA bust this year

  50. Woogie63 says:

    Scungilli:
    Hanzal has injury issues, is 30 in two weeks and not exactly shredding this year. Fork in him.

    If we had to pay through the nose for Larsson and cap was mentioned as a factor in that deal, Davidson hasa lot of value. Other teams have seen his quality, he’s a cheap top 4 D. The only drawback with him is health.

    Yesterday’s game to me was about poor puck management and the lack of a centre to help Nuge out. He needs a break. Russell has his moments but I’m not convinced when the other team has the puck. His breakouts are pretty good against low pressure teams, but first you need the puck back, or not in your end at all.

    For me, if the Leafs and Jets crap out of the playoffs, and the Oilers could acquire Trouba for Davidson + and Bozak from the Leafs for a fair price, and a back up, they maight have a shot at a run.

    Without the centre and another strong right side defender to help Benning the issues run too deep to put down a more balanced team in a series. One and done, keep your powder dry, finish the project completely in the off season.

    Why do you see Davidson as a top 4 dman?

    Last year he played 63 games and showed good promise in 20 of them; 12 points
    This year he had played 13 games and to my eye is ok as a 5/6 role; 1 point

  51. Melman says:

    With Nash and the Phlems coming up, perhaps rolling out a stinker while still grabbing the 2 points isn’t entirely horrible. Ebs got rid of the anvil and TMac should have everyone’s attention at practice.

    10 years of PTOD (post traumatic Oilers disorder) though still has me worried this is the “winning games you shouldn’t just before you go on a losing streak “

  52. N64 says:

    frjohnk: Have you run the numbers to see where the Oilers would place without Bettman points?

    What I had in mind was if they had fewer overtime appearances than average instead of being an overtime appearance leader. Their probability of being in the playoffs is heavily affected by playing for extra time.

    Coaches with 2nd tier rosters have to accept that the average tie game is worth .750 instead of .500.

    I do realize where they would be if there were no Bettman points in the NHL. But they are in the tier where Coach HAS to chase Bettman points.

    Hope that clears up what I was trying to say.

  53. dustrock says:

    I don’t want to turn this into another argument about Kris Russell, but I just don’t get it.

    He was named 3rd star on a night when Klefbom and Larsson destroyed the opposition.

    Russell was -1 and was on with Sekera for the PP goal against. Thought it was a poor night for Sekera and an average (leaning: poor) for Russell besides overtime.

    People talk about his hustle but then I ask why Sekera, Klefa and Larsson don’t seem to have to hustle quite as much?

    I also haven’t really been a fan of Sekera and Russell together on the PK – because you’re hemmed in the DZ so much, neither of them is great at net-front presence, and that was very obvious on the goal Florida scored.

  54. oscarmike says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I think all this Shattenkirk rumour crap is just that – crap. The Blues will never ever trade a player to a team they might meet in the playoffs. Heads would roll if they traded him to any team in the west and were beaten by said team in the first round.

    I think you’re right
    Blues don’t have a problem with letting their
    UFA walk for nothing. Blues want to win as
    much as the Oilers so unless it’s a return that
    can replace Shatty it’s not happening.

    Why would all these years of missing playoff
    and not selling off Ebs would Oilers now sell
    Eberle. That would be like a Maple Leafs fan
    “what if we trade the Leafs 2017 1st round pick+
    Marincin for Jordan Eberle. ”

    Buying at the deadline doesn’t mean you sell off
    assets for picks and prospects
    when you’re deep in the payoff race. Lol

  55. New Improved Darkness says:

    The three Italian Rs: rabbit, rag-doll, and rodeo.

    Sitting Too Much Ages You By 8 Years

    They took blood samples from nearly 1,500 older women enrolled in the Women’s Health Initiative, a long-term study of chronic diseases in post-menopausal women, and focused on the telomeres: the tips of the tightly packed DNA in every cell.

    There’s the problem right there. Women don’t rage enough.

    It was a tough game to watch, because it is difficult to yell at the television for three full hours.

    There’s the problem right there. Canadians are too vocal.

    Proper technique: slide forward, lean into television, levitate butt cheeks, lock thighs, rock the three Italian Rs.

    Lather, wince, rebuke[*], recline.

    ———

    [*] Rejoice sold separately. May not be available in some areas. While supplies last.

    ———

    Pro tip: remember to release the seat pan jammer (if your chair has one; if it doesn’t, that’s fine, too).

    * too restrained
    * where’s my prune juice!
    * enough prune juice!

    ———

    Do click on “doesn’t”. [*]

    ———

    [*] Mud flaps sold separately.

  56. magneto says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    magneto,

    Shoots left and 1/3 of his points are on the PP. The Left shot is the only reason I’m hesitant otherwise I like the suggestion

    I think he would be a cheaper option than Hanzal, although I think Boyle is what a lot of people think Hanzal is (if that makes sense)

  57. Pescador says:

    dustrock:
    I don’t want to turn this into another argument about Kris Russell, but I just don’t get it.

    He was named 3rd star on a night when Klefbom and Larsson destroyed the opposition.

    Russell was -1 and was on with Sekera for the PP goal against.Thought it was a poor night for Sekera and an average (leaning: poor) for Russell besides overtime.

    People talk about his hustle but then I ask why Sekera, Klefa and Larsson don’t seem to have to hustle quite as much?

    Hey Dust,
    You’re focused on who was named the star, your beef is with who was naming the stars.
    I thought Rusty was decent last night & has played fairly well recently (hot take alert!! haha). He has his flaws that is well documented, what I like about him is his quickness perfect example of a play I noticed him make a lot this year is last nights overtime 2 on 1. He played the pass, saw Ekblad load the stick & drop his head, then he was very fast at getting over to interfere with the shot. Great defensive play.
    Try to watch for the little things he does well & think 3rd pairing on a talent rich blue line next season or even better this one. Have a great day, mr. Rock

  58. DBO says:

    As LT has mentioned since McDavid was gifted to us, his entry level deal is window one to run for a cup. Once he gets major money, it changes our situation immensely. We have to make a real run right now, not eventually. No holding back, stop hoarding bottom 6 dmen and prospects only we love.

    We need a 2 RD QB PP and a better 3C and ideally 3RW.

    RD
    SHATTENKIRK
    GREEN

    Cost will be less for Green, and he may be our best bet.. But regardless you don’t hold back our 5th LD (if Nurse is healthy) in Davidson. If he needs to go, he goes. Sorry but the coach and GM like Russell. Get over it. He is here all year and likely re-signed. Deal with it. Davidson has no spot on this roster going forward. So you move him if you can fill a need like RD.

    3C and 3RW is another issue. I’m not sold on Caggs, and if we are keeping Pouliot then Lucic needs some veteran players to make it work.
    3C
    Hanzal
    Bozak
    Someone else’s overpaid someone that maybe we get them to keep money aka Maroon.

    3RW i actually believe will be filled internally. Puljujarvi , like Seguin in his rookie year, if filled with confidence after 20 in the AHL may be our best fit. Maybe that’s why they kept him so long, they knew he’d be back for last stretch and playoff run. A confident Jesse with Hanzal and Lucic is a pretty great 3rd line and provides scoring potential and a ton of size and heavy skill that is so desperately needed come playoff time, especially when we play either San Jose or Anaheim.

    Maroon. McDavid. Draisatl
    Pouliot. Nuge. Eberle
    Lucic. Hanzal. Puljujarvi
    Caggulia/Khaira/Hendricks. Letestu. Kassian

    Klefbom. Larsson
    Sekera. Green/Shattenkirk
    Russell. Benning
    Nurse

    That is a playoff team and has the balance and horses to make a cup run. .

  59. dustrock says:

    Pescador: Hey Dust,
    You’re focused on who was named the star, your beef is with who was naming the stars.
    I thought Rusty was decent last night & has played fairly well recently (hot take alert!! haha). He has his flaws that is well documented, what I like about him is his quickness perfect example of a play I noticed him make a lot this year is last nights overtime 2 on 1. He played the pass saw Ekblad load the stick & drop his head, then he was very fast at getting over to interfere with the shot. Great defensive play.
    Try to watch for the little things he does well & think 3rd pairing on a talent rich blue line next season or even better this one. Have a great day, mr. Rock

    Fair comment. I’m not saying he’s not an NHL defenceman, I just don’t get the love.

    Recency bias for his admittedly great block in OT, I suppose. Just funny when Klefbom and Larsson tune up the opposition and neither of them would get consideration for a star.

    Russell is great at blocking shots. He is really good at that.

  60. TheGreatMutato says:

    dustrock,

    Baseball fans are familiar with the type – usually white, has some facial stubble, struggles to put up replacement level numbers. Buuuut, they are labelled as ‘scrappy’ and become popular with the fans and coaches who herald “hard work” over “talent” even if the hard work is only in services of making up for bad decisions and poor positional play.

    Russell is the NHL version. I’ve had Oilers fans tell me that he is the #1 (!!!) reason they are winning this year. Holy hell. Narrative is a thing.

  61. Scungilli says:

    Woogie63: Why do you see Davidson as a top 4 dman?

    Last year he played 63 games and showed good promise in 20 of them; 12 points
    This year he had played 13 games and to my eye is ok as a 5/6 role; 1 point

    Like Benning he is very mobile, retrieves quickly, has enough size, makes well chosen good passes. He covers well. He’s at least as good as Russell overall and he’s not up to speed yet. A lot of people said last year he’s a top 4 on most teams.

    Scoring is a different issue for me with D. Like Woodguy I have never felt most D drive offense. Some can jump in well, but the main job is get the puck back and put it somewhere good so the forwards can do something. Keep the puck in at the point, disrupt zone entries. Davidson also has a pretty good slapper as well. If he gets a run of health I can see him emerging.

    I would prefer to keep Klef and Nurse. So my scenario hopes others have seen the cheap diamond in the rough Davidson is. They have all seen him play well.

  62. frjohnk says:

    Kepler62: No idea how you can justify “Clear Loss – Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson” — That’s a trade you can’t really begin to analyze for several more years

    You can start analyzing it before the ink is dry.

    Hall has been elite in many scoring categories over the last few years.
    To name a few
    -Points per 60
    -shot attempts ( a volume shooter)
    -shot attempts from the slot

    micro stats have Hall as elite
    -loose puck recoveries
    -rebound recoveries
    -successful zone entries per 60 ( This year he is 1st in the league, McDavid is 2nd)

    Lowetide and many others see Hall as an elite left winger.

    Hall does have an injury history and Larsson’s contract is cheaper.

    Larsson does not have any stats that show him elite in defensive, offensive or passing stats, but he is good in his own way.

    I think at the moment, the Devils got the better player, but it does not mean the trade verdict is over. I think Larsson is getting more comfortable with the Oilers system. I like how physical he is, would like him passing the puck and skating with puck with more consistency. How much more offense does he have?

    -should be mentioned that some expect Benning to pass Larsson on the depth chart as Benning is more mobile and more of two way Dman at the moment.

    -some see the trade as Hall for Larsson + Lucic, but it should also be noted that if by looking at trading for Dmen, it took Hall, the 16th and 33rd picks to bring in 1 top 4 Dman.

  63. Melman says:

    DBO,

    With TO in the playoffs right now I don’t see them moving Bozak. Green has 1 more year at $6 – unless Det wants to pay a good chunk of that I’d pass, and I don’t see Holland doing that unless there’s an overpay in assets headed to Det. A guy like Vrbata or Vanek may improve the PP just as much as getting a D without the added cost

  64. Scungilli says:

    frjohnk: -some see the trade as Hall for Larsson + Lucic, but it should also be noted that if by looking at trading for Dmen, it took Hall, the 16th and 33rd picks to bring in 1 top 4 Dman.

    Chiarelli needs to win a few to even that out. Quite a bloodletting. Can’t have anymore of that.

  65. kinger_OIL says:

    DBO,

    – I get what you are saying about the entry-level deal, but the reality is that the Conner McDavid in 4 years is likely going to be a lot better than he is now

    – And he’s going to cost a lot more money because he is a lot better.

    – We all would love to see a Cup run ASAP (and I think is not crazy-talk), but knowing that he’s going to get paid sick in a few years, you have to balance that with filling up roster with guys to win

    – Not that easy to do. You could get Green for nuthin’ I’m sure, but St-Louis isn’t trading Shattenkirk for nuthin’

    – They need to get into the Playoffs with this team, see where they are, and/or get lucky, pool-party comes back for cup run.

    – Sure add bodies, but I disagree: Cup or bust during McD’s entry-level

  66. Melman says:

    Healthy they can start the playoffs WITHOUT trading a 1ST

    Klef – Larsson
    Sekera – Benning
    Davidson-Russell
    Nurse
    Gryba

    I’d focus on 3C, vet RW and G2. They aren’t winning the cup this year and giving up a 1st so you can ‘maybe” get into the second round is too expensive.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    dustrock,

    So Shattenkirk says he’d be ok playing the rest of a season in another town other then his desired location on the east coast preferably the Rags and people are going all crazy about acquiring him to come to Edmonton. Despite points this team really plays some of the ugliest hockey since Lemaires Wild and our one scoring line is not enough to win a playoff series. Too many holes to fix.

    This cold streak might be the best thing to happen to Eberle. He actually has been coming out of the corners with the puck

  68. kgo says:

    frjohnk,

    Benning has slight skating limitations but they are masked by other attributes such as positioning, passing, and he seems to be able to predict how plays are developing at an elite level…If he follows draisatles lead over the offseason and improves his skating dramatically then watch out…

  69. --hudson-- says:

    jonrmcleod:
    During the last minute of OT, the Florida TV crew was saying, “MCDAVID AND DRAISAITL ARE STUCK ON THE ICE! THEY’RE DEAD TIRED!” Little did they know.

    I got a good chuckle watching Drai hunched over on the Panthers final sortie. He had his lead boots on but had the confidence to make a really nice play. Great to see, hope he never makes the same mistake again.

  70. dessert1111 says:

    I’d much, much prefer Vrbata to Hanzal.

    Ideally we have someone who is versatile but Vrbata will cost less and he shoots a lot.

    If they are open to moving Draisalt back to C for the year, Vrbata would be a great add. Buys JP time and creates scoring depth our stretch run.

    Can he be had for a 3rd and a B level prospect (I’d say Reinhart is the high end of what I’d give up and probably wouldn’t give up Jones who I rate higher than Reinhart ATM)?

    Or could we trade down for 2 2nd rounders and use that for Vrbata?

  71. rstahl says:

    Team A trades a young defenseman drafted in the top 5, who’s career best offensive season prorates to 31 points over an 82 game season. This defenseman is known for his nasty streak.

    Team B gives up a veteran winger who didn’t quite average 1 PPG the previous season, but has had some big offensive seasons in his past.

    Question – did Team A or Team B win that trade?

  72. kinger_OIL says:

    frjohnk,

    FR says: “some see the trade as Hall for Larsson + Lucic, but it should also be noted that if by looking at trading for Dmen, it took Hall, the 16th and 33rd picks to bring in 1 top 4 Dman.”

    – I see it as Hall, the 16th, 33rd and cash to bring in/sign:
    1) Larsson
    2) Sek
    3) Russel
    4) Benning
    5) Gryba
    6) Griff

    – That’s making 6 “bets” to improve the weakest part of this roster: Defense

    – Building in redundancies, not hoping for the best, and creating depth and alternative scenarios

    – that’s why I am not as “critical” of Chia as some are here. My analysis might be wrong, but that’s how I think Chia went about getting out of the D mess last 18 months.

    – Some “hit” better than others.

    – Chia is paying for instance less for Larsson and Benning than Hall. If the trade was Larsson + Benning (assuming Benning was on NJ), for Hall straight up, no cash: your getting 2RHD for Hall

    – Maybe NJ wanted to give back another player, and Chia be like: “no thanks, we are going to spend that money on another player we think can contribute more for cheaper”

  73. Braden28 says:

    LT, you missed the Yakupov trade. Clear win for the Oilers. Addition by subtraction.

    The Schultz trade is also a clear win when taken into context. No way the Oilers were going to qualify him at $3.9 million (he signed for $1.4) and no way he was returning to the Oilers as a free agent. Getting a 3rd for someone disappearing for free is good business.

  74. Woodguy says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I think all this Shattenkirk rumour crap is just that – crap. The Blues will never ever trade a player to a team they might meet in the playoffs. Heads would roll if they traded him to any team in the west and were beaten by said team in the first round.

    I’ve heard Armstrong has been chastised for letting FA’s Backes and Brower leave without getting anything for them.

    Armstrong kept them to go deep in the playoffs, but of course they didn’t go deep enough.

    STL played Shattenkirk on the 3rd pair for a lot of last year’s playoffs.

    Cashing him in before the trade deadline isn’t far fetched, especially if they get a young Dman who can step into the lineup back.

  75. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Well I think they realize that their goaltending issues will not get solved this year which will prevent any long playoff run so they want to move Shattenkirk

  76. Melvis says:

    LT

    Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle

    Three Dog Night…

    Although the etymology suggests otherwise – in indigenous Aussie parlance, a really cold night means sleeping ina hole in the ground with three dogs – they’re warming up.

  77. Diesel says:

    “It came two minutes into the shift—TWO MINUTES—and Connor McDavid was a rocket anyway. Reimer stopped the puck, but the game was done and all he caught was a post-game souvenir.”

    I love me some fancies, but this is why I read this blog.

  78. Scungilli says:

    kgo:
    frjohnk,

    Benning has slight skating limitations but they are masked by other attributes such as positioning, passing, and he seems to be able to predict how plays are developing at an elite level…If he follows draisatles lead over the offseason and improves his skating dramatically then watch out…

    Benning was the fastest backward skater at the skills comp (because Nurse is hurt). Davidson was fast as well. Why is he a limited skater?

  79. stephen sheps says:

    Braden28:
    LT, you missed the Yakupov trade. Clear win for the Oilers. Addition by subtraction.

    The Schultz trade is also a clear win when taken into context. No way the Oilers were going to qualify him at $3.9 million (he signed for $1.4) and no way he was returning to the Oilers as a free agent. Getting a 3rd for someone disappearing for free is good business.

    I’m not entirely convinced of either of these points, though as a charter member of Yak City (still have the sweater to prove it), please take my point of view for what it’s worth (not much)

    W.R.T Yak – he had chemistry with McDavid, and while the coach was not exactly stoked on utilizing that chemistry, it was a thing. Look, Leon in that spot is working like a charm, but it has left a hole at a different part of the roster, and at this point the team is lacking depth on the right side. I don’t call giving up depth/chemistry a clear win, but rather a net-neutral result as the player and the team had soured on each other.

    I miss Yak’s energy and exuberance on the ice quite a bit, to be honest, and keeping him for one more season (at his low cost) wouldn’t have been bad roster/asset management. Then you cut your losses if it doesn’t work and don’t qualify him at the end of the season. It’s not like the assets the team has or will receive are all that great, but there have been a number of times this season where various members of this community have thought ‘man, I wish we had another winger who could score’, or ‘I wish we had a bit of cover for JP so we could send him to Bakersfield before game 9 or game 40.’

    Schultz is a different matter altogether – his confidence was shot, the fans made him into Tom Poti 2.0 and he was asked to do far too much while he was here.

    To an extent moving on from that player and gaining an asset in return was ok, but the asset was poor and shows the perceived value of ex-Oilers from the MacTambiLowe area is/was not all that high around the league. At the time the trade was sort of like a Bettman point – it’ll do in a pinch and a point is a point, but it’s not exactly great.

    That being said, I’m thrilled that the Penguins found a way to play to his strengths and placed him in a position to rebuild his game and succeed. It’s exactly the sort of reclamation/redemption story you hope for with a player and person like him. I wish the same situation would have happened to Nail, but sadly the Blues were not the right fit (or perhaps he’s not the right fit for the NHL, as painful and sad as it is to type that sentence).

    TLDR – these trades aren’t quite as clearcut wins for P.C. as you (and others) might think they are. As you rightly said, context matters.

  80. dustrock says:

    leadfarmer:
    dustrock,

    So Shattenkirk says he’d be ok playing the rest of a season in another town other then his desired location on the east coast preferably the Rags and people are going all crazy about acquiring him to come to Edmonton.Despite points this team really plays some of the ugliest hockey since Lemaires Wild and our one scoring line is not enough to win a playoffseries.Too many holes to fix.

    This cold streak might be the best thing to happen to Eberle. He actually has been coming out of the corners with the puck

    I would be very interested in Shattenkirk depending on acquisition cost. I’m not sure it’s time to “Shoot the Moon”, one more year makes more sense, but then I’ve been whinging about Chiarelli to pull an Alex Anthopolous and make a big trade a la the Jays to have them go for it.

    https://twitter.com/MimicoHero/status/821792295024529408

    This is Dom Galamini who does the HERO Charts.

    Take a look at Player A (Pietrangelo) and Player B (Shattenkirk).

    He is a useful player. What we hoped Schultz would be, TBH.

  81. Wolfpack says:

    I know I am putting the cart before the horse here but the number of times the Oilers are going to extra time is concerning to me. I don’t really have any sense as to their ability to close out games at 5-on-5. I wonder, if they do make the playoffs, what will this look like? When it is 5-on-5 in OT and the refs have put their whistles away, what is this Oilers team made of? Maybe for some this unknown is viewed with excitement but I am a bit on the pessimistic side. Is it too much to ask for a late goal to win a game?

  82. bbf_iii says:

    Sam Bennett will be a healthy scratch tonight for Calgary. He’s had a down month.

  83. New Improved Darkness says:

    It’s a great day for the hypocrisy of the Hall of Fame voting induct all that used Peds or induct none

    Worst. Logic. Ever.

    The standard for “all” is achievable (by a blind monkey), whereas the standard for “none” is not achievable (short of a burning bush with impeccable credentials).

    False equivalence.

    If the standard for “none” were achievable, there would be 99.44% public support behind squeaky-clean sainthood, end of story.

    ———

    “Hey burning bush, who corked?”

    “On field, or off field?”

    “Really? You know that, too?”

    “Just what part of ‘omnipotent flame’ are you failing to understand, here?”

    “Would you believe ‘most of it’?”

    Ten minutes later, they’re still playing questions only.

    Burning bushes are real sticklers for precise questions.

  84. russ99 says:

    I’d prefer someone like Seidenberg over Shattenkirk.

    Someone who improves our defensive corps, not fills a specific role that only effects one side of the ice: RH point shot.

    Someone who makes us harder to play against

    Someone who we have a chance to re-sign after the test drive without blowing up the cap before we pay Draisaitl and Connor,

    Someone who we don’t have to trade too many quality assets to acquire from a team pretty much out of the playoff chase.

  85. Chachi says:

    Nobody is going to mention the Honeymoon Suite reference?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uK0AmgDGpPo

    Awesome.

  86. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Tim Rowe just said Huberdeau and Barkov will likely miss the rest of the season.

    I’d be looking at the Cats for my rental players in 3-2-1…

  87. kinger_OIL says:

    Chachi,

    What percent of people on this blog would know who Honeymoon Suite is?

    – We should conduct somekind of anon poll to get a sense of the wide demographics of the miscreants who gather in this cesspool of LT to chat and bicker (I kid!)

  88. Truth says:

    bbf_iii:
    Sam Bennett will be a healthyscratch tonight for Calgary. He’s had a down month.

    The talk of him being a better player than Draisaitl sure has quieted from my friends down south, which is nice.

  89. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: Cashing him in before the trade deadline isn’t far fetched, especially if they get a young Dman who can step into the lineup back.

    True. But cashing him in to a team that would then better placed to knock them out of the playoffs? Not sure about that. I can see them trading him East, but not West.

  90. Truth says:

    If those are the prices it would take to get Shattenkirk or Hanzal stay away. The Oilers are surprisingly high in the standings right now, no need to get in a bidding war with the true contenders for Shattenkirk. They should try to sign him once he hits FA, however.

    Hanzal is a great player and has a pretty good contract. He’d be worth the price of acquisition if it didn’t mean a first round pick. The Oilers are getting awful thin on F prospects beyond JP and Benson, they need to keep the pipeline stocked if they want to be good for a long time.

  91. doritogrande says:

    On LT’s trades posted:

    Shattenkirk: we’re not going to like the acquire cost if it happens. It’ll likely be people acquired by the previous management though. I’d speculate a conditional 2018 (1st round if resigned) and Davidson. I’d prefer to trade another expiring contract myself (Russell) and sweeten with another draft pick but we don’t have them in plentiful supply. I’d pass on the acquisition cost.

    Hanzal: Arizona is horrawful this year, but have enough D that they probably aren’t looking at a near-ready guy. I’d ideally go with Simpson/Musil and a conditional 2018 pick (it gets better with each round we go into the playoffs this year), but they’d probably want a D that’s some years away. I like Jones’ potential more than I like Paigan, so I’d be more comfortable flipping the Russian their way. I’d make that trade.

    Backup: unless they’re a clear cut upgrade (as Reimer was last year for the Sharks) I pass and keep Brossoit. Antti Raanta (who absolutely isn’t coming here) or equivalent.

    A question about McDavid’s entry level contract. If we happen to win the Stanley Cup this year or next, how does his bonus affect our team’s cap situation? I remember that Chicago was literally in living hell after they won in Toews’ third year and he won the Conn Smythe. I’m assuming Connor has all the same bonus opportunities as Toews, and as long as we’re blue skying I’d say it’s fair to assume that if the Oilers win it all, we know McDavid is getting that MVP.

  92. Woogie63 says:

    Hall, Shultz, Yakupov, Purcell were sent away because they didn’t play enough defense for the coach.

    I think Eberle’s goal total is down this year because he playing 2-4 feet closer to his own goal this year, and not “flying” the defensive zone as much as prior years, he got the defense wins message.

  93. The Hermit says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I’m still a lonely man burning in love.

  94. SugarRay says:

    I make the Shattenkirk trade LT proposed all day. No guarantees Davidson makes it through expansion draft so why not roll the dice?

    After watching Gryba the last while, I cannot possibly see how he is a better 7D option then Fayne. I understand he is a quarter of the price, but he couldn’t catch Jagr last night which led to a horrible penalty and then couldn’t decide what to do with the puck on another. Also, maybe Fayne surprises and you can find a way to unload him at the deadline somehow.

    Too steep a payment for Hanzal IMO, but i do like the idea of adding him and/or Vrbata.

  95. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: You can start analyzing it before the ink is dry.

    Hall has been elite in many scoring categories over the last few years.
    To name a few
    -Points per 60
    -shot attempts ( a volume shooter)
    -shot attempts from the slot

    micro stats have Hall as elite
    -loose puck recoveries
    -rebound recoveries
    -successful zone entries per 60 ( This year he is 1st in the league, McDavid is 2nd)

    Lowetide and many others see Hall as an elite left winger.

    Hall does have an injury history and Larsson’s contract is cheaper.

    Larsson does not have any stats that show him elite in defensive, offensive or passing stats, but he is good in his own way.

    I think at the moment, the Devils got the better player, but it does not mean the trade verdict is over.I think Larsson is getting more comfortable with the Oilers system.I like how physical he is, would like him passing the puck and skating with puck with more consistency. How much more offense does he have?

    -should be mentioned that some expect Benning to pass Larsson on the depth chart as Benning is more mobile and more of two way Dman at the moment.

    -some see the trade as Hall for Larsson + Lucic, but it should also be noted that if by looking at trading for Dmen, it took Hall, the 16th and 33rd picks to bring in 1 top 4 Dman.

    Every one always lists Halls high danger chance creation ability but never his high danger scoring chance conversion percentage which is low for a player of his caliber. Why is that? Why don’t people talk about while he is elite at creating chances he is elite at having that chance end up in the goalies crest. He is the anti Patrick Kane who creates far less HD scoring chances but they end up in the back of the net for the most part.

  96. khildahl says:

    Melvis:
    LT

    Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle

    Three Dog Night…

    Fitting.

    Capable of making beautiful music together, authors of more classics than I can count, and woefully unappreciated.

  97. Thorin says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Chachi,
    What percent of people on this blog would know who Honeymoon Suite is?

    – We should conduct somekind of anon poll to get a sense of the wide demographics of the miscreants who gather in this cesspool of LT to chat and bicker (I kid!)

    I think there are so many knowledgeable, experienced, well-rounded people on here that we would find a majority know Honeymoon Suite. I’ve seen so many music references over the years, of various genres, I tend to believe people here are well-read (well-listened?) in regards to music.

    Same with whiskeys and steaks and cars.

  98. ashley says:

    Shoot the moon? I’m still just hoping this team can make the playoffs.

    On the right track, but miles to go.

    We might overpay for a Dman like Shat, or center like Hanzal if LT’s suggested trade costs are accurate (they often are).

    A different era, but remember when Spacek only cost us the smurf Salmelainen?

    I think a stay at home defender would be more valuable to us and cost less in transaction and salary. We already have mobility with Klefbom, Davidson, and Benning. There may be more of these D-first types available.

  99. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woogie63:
    Hall, Shultz, Yakupov, Purcell were sent away because they didn’t play enough defense for the coach.

    I think Eberle’s goal total is down this year because he playing 2-4 feet closer to his own goal this year, and not “flying” the defensive zone as much as prior years,he got the defense wins message.

    I think the message is more accurately “defence ties & then Connor & Leon win in gimmick time”

  100. treevojo says:

    Scungilli: Chiarelli needs to win a few to even that out. Quite a bloodletting. Can’t have anymore of that.

    Oilers received

    Talbot + 8% chance of 100 nhl game player

    New York Rangers received

    65.8% chance of 100 nhl game player

    Chiarelli then went on to sign this years league leader in games and minutes played to a bargain contract.

    I would chalk this up to one of the most one sided trades in the last few years

  101. hungoverman says:

    Maybe Lethal Weapon can be played when Connor steps on the ice? Or just hire Johnnie Dee to sing the anthems? Or..for next seasons RE LT can use all Honeymoon Suite songs for the players?

  102. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Hey LT.I think you’re really overestimating the price of rentals at the deadline. I may be wrong about this, but I believe not a single first round pick was traded at the deadline last year. I remember there was a lot of commentary about that; teams finally smartening up and not wasting 1 st round picks. Anyway, no way do I spend first round pick on any UFA.

    2016 draft? 11 of 30 traded at one point or another. Lots of times you will see a pick traded at the deadline two years previous (Sekera trade listed in the link), but teams trade their first round picks often
    http://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Years/2016.htm

    Nine picks traded, some multiple times, in 2015, which is generally regarded as a very deep draft
    http://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Years/2015.htm

  103. Scungilli says:

    treevojo: Oilers received

    Talbot + 8% chance of 100 nhl game player

    New York Rangers received

    65.8% chance of 100 nhl game player

    Chiarelli then went on to sign this years league leader in games and minutes played to a bargain contract.

    I would chalk this up to one of the most one sided trades in the last few years

    Yes it worked out well so far, but there was a fair amount of risk because he hadn’t been a starter. Goalies also regularly don’t cover their contracts, fingers crossed. A lot only have a couple of good years.

  104. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer: he is elite at having that chance end up in the goalies crest. He is the anti Patrick Kane who creates far less HD scoring chances but they end up in the back of the net for the most part.

    Any stats to back that up?
    or an article?
    Here is one article that says otherwise and it is not “on ice shot metric based” but based on what an individual does on the ice on how they contribute to shots on net.
    http://www.msgnetworks.com/2016/10/13/why-taylor-hall-is-an-elite-talent/

  105. who says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Hall Awaits,

    Nah, I’ve been thinking about this since yesterday after floating a similar transaction. The Conditional is too much of a sweetener for Davidson who is already cost controlled and will slot in offensively behind Parayko and Pietrangelo on the St Louis d which means his cost upside will likely be significantly less.

    Actually the more i think about it Russell will probably be the trade chip heading out. The coaching staff moved Russell back up with Sekera during the San Jose game and haven’t moved him off since. My guess is that putting Benning and/or Larsson down with Davidson was intended to get him back up to game speed before having him play his off wing. Russell while playing well with Larsson didn’t look as good as he does playing with Sekera due to just how friggin subtly good Sekera is.

    I could be reading way too much into this but if you could turn a one year rental who put up excellent yeoman’s work into a deadline asset that snags you Shattenkirk, who would solve the Lefty-righty (as well as vet-rookie) issue for a stretch drive, just as Nurse returns to the fold, without having to part with a potential medium term asset who covers the same points spread (i.e. Davidson) that is excellent asset management IMO.

    I like the idea of Hanzal and or Vrbata but would need to see the acquisition cost. I think LTs transaction is too high, no need to throw Jones in on that one unless Vrbata is part of the package (even then I don’t know if I’d trade Jones).

    Why would the blues trade their UFA for someone else’s UFA. Why would they not just keep Shattenkirk. Unless they think Russell. is an upgrade. Hard to see that when Shattenkirk is running their first power play unit.

  106. treevojo says:

    Scungilli: Yes it worked out well so far, but there was a fair amount of risk because he hadn’t been a starter. Goalies also regularly don’t cover their contracts, fingers crossed. A lot only have a couple of good years.

    There is risk involved in all trades.

    But that is not what I was responding to.

    You said chia needs to win a few to even out (bloodletting).

    I would say the Talbot trade is so one sided that it could possibly make up for the slight loss in value in the hall trade + the loss of the Reinhart trade(as it currently looks).

  107. NativeNotFrench says:

    rstahl: Team A trades a young defenseman drafted in the top 5, who’s career best offensive season prorates to 31 points over an 82 game season. This defenseman is known for his nasty streak.
    Team B gives up a veteran winger who didn’t quite average 1 PPG the previous season, but has had some big offensive seasons in his past.
    Question – did Team A or Team B win that trade?

    Assuming trades happen in a vacuum I would say team A won the trade but trades don’t happen in a vacuum, tons of other factors at play that require possibly years to fully know and understand

  108. Lowetide says:

    Melvis: The Three Dog Night reference is perfect. Ear worm warning

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnyh6i9NvmE

  109. Truth says:

    ashley:

    A different era, but remember when Spacek only cost us the smurf Salmelainen?

    From what I can recall Salmelainen wasn’t even under contract at the time either. Just his rights were traded for Spacek. You are bang on with that being the kind of trade the Oilers need to find. Too early to mortgage the future.

    I’d even be happy with the reverse Justin Schultz / Yakupov trade. Pay a modest price for a young player with high potential looking for a change of scenery. I don’t have a player in mind at the moment though.

  110. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Btw, Adam Larsson’s last minus game was on December 9. Since then he has played 16 GP, 0-3-3, +9 with all 3 of those points coming in the last 5 games. He’s really found his comfort zone in the new year.

    by way of comparison — though they really aren’t comparable, Hall is the anti-Larsson — in the same time period Hall is 17 GP, 3-6-9, -5. (Their teams aren’t comparable either.)

    Meanwhile, Damon Severson who got promoted to Larsson’s old spot in NJD as 1RD is -22 on the year, behind 792 NHLers and ahead of 1– Tyson Barrie. And yes of course I realize +/- is flawed & also situation dependent (see Justin Schultz for details) , but goal differential is a thing all the same and even a guy who can consistently saw off has value in the Bettman Point era.

  111. Bag of Pucks says:

    RE: The Schultz trade trending down for Chia

    Imagine this scenario. You have a girlfriend. She’s overweight, unemployed, smokes, isn’t particularly bright, has zero fashion sense, can’t boil an egg, etc..

    You dump her.

    Now, you’re no prize yourself (a perennial cellar dweller some might say), so getting dumped by you turns out to be the veritable game changer for her.

    When next you meet, she’s a different person. Hardbody smokeshow. She rocks the gym 5 times a week, is taking cooking classics, pursuing a degree, is reading the classics, dresses like Audrey Hepburn. In short, she’s elevated her market value substantially.

    THAT is Justin Schultz. We had to dump him. That’s the only way he gets better. He went to Pittsburgh a broken player and they broke him further (press box, fringe player, etc.). I guarantee this offseason, Jultz found Jesus, put the X-Box in the closet, trained his ass off, and came to camp actually prepared to listen to his coaches.

    Chiarelli traded a net negative player. That was a win the moment he left. Now, if that finally proved to be the motivator this player needed to turn his career around, we can hardly fault Chia for that. There were ZERO indications Schultz was moving in that direction as an Oiler.

  112. season not played says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Btw, Adam Larsson’s last minus game was on December 9. Since then he has played 16 GP, 0-3-3, +9 with all 3 of those points coming in the last 5 games. He’s really found his comfort zone in the new year.

    by way of comparison — though they really aren’t comparable, Hall is the anti-Larsson —in the same time period Hall is 17 GP, 3-6-9, -5. (Their teams aren’t comparable either.)

    Meanwhile, Damon Severson who got promoted to Larsson’s old spot in NJD as 1RD is -22 on the year, behind 792 NHLers and ahead of 1– Tyson Barrie. And yes of course I realize +/- is flawed & also situation dependent (see Justin Schultz for details) , butgoal differential is a thing all the same and even a guy who can consistently saw off has value in the Bettman Point era.

    +1

  113. Woogie63 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I think the message is more accurately “defence ties & then Connor & Leon win in gimmick time”

    Ha….

    I have been looking for the quote (can’t find it) …. did Tmac say they were targeting a +40 swing in team plus minus? Or can I add my memory to things that are not working as well.

  114. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Clap, clap, clap, clap

    Pure truth right here

  115. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer: Every one always lists Halls high danger chance creation ability but never his high danger scoring chance conversion percentage which is low for a player of his caliber.Why is that?Why don’t people talk about while he is elite at creating chances he is elite at having that chance end up in the goalies crest.He is the anti Patrick Kane who creates far less HD scoring chances but they end up in the back of the net for the most part.

    Hall is tied for 4th in the NHL in 1st assists/60 over the last 4 years (2200min+ 5v5)

    Kuznetsov 1.13
    Thornton 1.03
    Getzlaf 1.03
    Crosby 1.02
    Hall 1.02

    I’d say his high danger chance conversion rate is elite.

  116. Chachi says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Chachi,

    What percent of people on this blog would know who Honeymoon Suite is?

    – We should conduct somekind of anon poll to get a sense of the wide demographics of the miscreants who gather in this cesspool of LT to chat and bicker (I kid!)

    I expect it is a much higher percentage than the general population which is what makes this place great. Where else can you come to have a discussion about hockey and end up falling down a youtube rabbit hole of 80’s Canadian pop music.

  117. OilClog says:

    The Gryba acquisition has been spectacular, steps in plays a solid, simple game, gets burned occasionally, but did you see Sekera last night?! He was far below par for his season, a truly ugly game, passing pucks to the slot Infront of his net, turnover after turnover, off the glass and out, Sekera would admit he wasn’t good last night.

    But Gryba, what more could you ask of him? He’s beginning to keep forwards honest, with their heads up, and several various partners seem to not miss a beat beside him. His heavy game will come in far more handier for this squad in the playoffs then the Thinner man.

    This is a good team the GM needs to not pull a Tambi on, get them the pieces.

    With Phoenix clearly a bottom 5 team for the foreseeable future, get on the OEL pry job. Phoenix loves draft picks and prospects, Poolparty, Two 1st’s, Caleb Jones, whatever the need is, Add the man. OEL move could put this team over the top for the next 5-7years without sacrificing anything on the currently constructed roster.

    College players aren’t going to stop salivating for a chance to play for this squad, lots of options for the Oilers to get prospects without relying on the draft alone.

  118. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: Hall is tied for 4th in the NHL in 1st assistsintocrest/60 over the last 4 years (2200min+ 5v5)

    FTFY

  119. Bruce Wayne says:

    All this trade talk presupposes a false dichotomy between going for it, and waiting for next year. It is possible to improve the team in the short term (hence going for it) without sacrificing future years so long as the price is not exorbitant in draft picks. Indeed, Chiarelli did just that last year when he traded for Maroon.

    The trade deadline is a liquid market in which teams are doing dumb things all the time. I savvy GM should be able to take advantage of this by both improving the team in the short term and, if not improving it in the long term, at least breaking even.

    In one alternate universe, Chiarelli somehow swaps out Lucic and Larsson for Hall and Demers, and in so doing both shoots the moon for a Stanley Cup run, while improving the team in the future.

  120. McJeetz says:

    frjohnk:
    ” Trade Brandon Davidson and a conditional 2018 pick (1st if he signed) for Kevin Shattenkirk. Trade 2017 1st and Caleb Jones for Martin Hanzal. Trade not much for Reto Berra.

    -If Shattenkirk is up for auction, it will only be as a rental and Davidson and a 1st probably is not a winning bid,
    -the 2017 1st and Jones is too much for the rental of Hanzal.
    -Yes, trade not much for Reto Berra.

    I dont believe we have the assets to pay for rentals.

    This.

    I think we keep the powder dry this year. Take what we can get in the playoffs with the players we have. Today, we would play SJ without home advantage. It would be nice to have a good run but even if we were bounced in the 1st round this season would be a smashing success.

    With the expansion draft we can’t protect them anyways. if we do sign them (Hanzal and Shattenkirk), then we lose someone else, so that is 2 assets per trade.

    Wait for the off season, then the expansion draft, then sign the UFAs if they want to come (i think it was TSN that said Shattenkirk could get 7×7 as a UFA, how can we afford that?).

    Protect your assets and build after this season.

  121. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide,

    “Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle went 18-15 and looked mostly like the rock and roll trio we have come to love (ZZ Top? No, too rocking. Air Supply? Come on, this trio has some jam!).”

    Triumph? A trio that can definitely play but are a tad too ‘soft’ for some tastes?

    Manage to overlook the production cheese that saturated every band of that era, and you realize that Rik Emmett was/is a phenomenal talent. Rik the Rocket. Easily one of the best guitar players this country has ever produced.

    https://youtu.be/FXIrxRYT1nQ

  122. Bruce Wayne says:

    It seems like I hear Honeymoon Suite on the radio once a month. Cancon at its finest.

  123. Oilin4 says:

    I make the Shattenkirk trade on one condition: You successfully lobby the league to convert playoff overtime to 3 on 3. Call it the McDraivid rule or the reverse-Oilers rule. This team doesn’t win the 5v5 battle against good teams enough to win in prison rules season (playoffs).

  124. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    Just ran into some more micro data

    Mike Kelly ‏@MikeKellyNHL Jan 15

    Even-strength Dzone carry out leaders..
    1) Eichel – 5.2
    2) P. Kane – 4.7
    3) Hall – 4.6
    4) Leddy – 4.5
    5) Panarin – 4.4

    Mike Kelly ‏@MikeKellyNHL Jan 15

    Even-strength controlled Ozone entry leaders..
    1) Hall – 6.7
    2) McDavid – 6.5
    3) Eichel – 6.5
    4) Gaudreau – 6.3
    5) P. Kane – 6.2
    Mike Kelly ‏@MikeKellyNHL Jan 15

    Even-strength puck possession leaders (forwards)..
    1) P. Kane – 1:35
    2) Panarin – 1:26
    3) Eichel – 1:20
    4) Hall – 1:15
    5) Getzlaf – 1:14

    Just tells me that Hall is a puck hog

  125. Oilanderp says:

    Dustylegnd:

    Think Duran Duran, Nuge like Simon LeBon having trouble hitting the high notes and some real pitch problems but talented in a deficient way.

    Pouliiot, like John Taylor lead guitar not really a new wave musician has a hard edge cast with very soft Bandmates,

    Eberle, like Nick Rhodes synthesized keyboards, very enjoyable to listen/watch but at the end of the day not a key member in the real success of the team

    If you ever compare my favourite hockey team to Duran Duran again, I will find you.
    This has been your only warning. Good day.

  126. rstahl says:

    NativeNotFrench: rstahl

    Does your answer change if I tell you Team A is the Hartford Whalers and Team B the St. Louis Blues?

    Pronger for Shanahan is a great historical comparison for Larrson for Hall. Down to the comments on how Pronger had a disappointing season, and how everyone in Hartford was unanimously in favour of the trade. http://www.courant.com/sports/hockey/hartford-whalers/hc-whalers-archive-july-28-1995-story.html.

    The biggest differences I see in the comparison on the defenseman side:
    Pronger had played fewer games (less established, perhaps more upside due to youth)
    Prongers PPG average was higher
    Larrson’s +/- was better

    I would say where the comparison falls apart is Shanahan-Hall. Yes, there are era effects, but Taylor hall has scored 20+ goals 4 times in his career. At the time of the trade, Shanahan had failed to score 20 goals only in his rookie season, and already had two 50 goal seasons, with two more 30 goal seasons.

  127. Bruce Wayne says:

    rstahl: Does your answer change if I tell you Team A is the Hartford Whalers and Team B the St. Louis Blues?

    Pronger for Shanahan is a great historical comparison for Larrson for Hall.Down to the comments on how Pronger had a disappointing season, and how everyone in Hartford was unanimously in favour of the trade.http://www.courant.com/sports/hockey/hartford-whalers/hc-whalers-archive-july-28-1995-story.html.

    The biggest differences I see in the comparison on the defenseman side:
    Pronger had played fewer games (less established, perhaps more upside due to youth)
    Prongers PPG average was higher
    Larrson’s +/- was better

    I would say where the comparison falls apart is Shanahan-Hall.Yes, there are era effects, but Taylor hall has scored 20+ goals twice in his career.At the time of the trade, Shanahan had failed to score 20 goals only in his rookie season, and already had two 50 goal seasons, with two more 30 goal seasons.

    This is both hilarious and instructive.

    The hilarity is self-evident. What is instructive is the demonstration of how fraught it is to argue by analogy.

  128. ashley says:

    Woodguy: Hall is tied for 4th in the NHL in 1st assists/60 over the last 4 years (2200min+ 5v5)

    Kuznetsov 1.13
    Thornton 1.03
    Getzlaf 1.03
    Crosby 1.02
    Hall 1.02

    I’d say his high danger chance conversion rate is elite.

    I don’t think this answer’s the question quoted. What’s the denominator?

  129. who says:

    No to both trade ideas.
    IF, and only if you are protecting 7 3 1, they might consider Davidson straight up for Shattenkirk. No draft pick. This move would probably require them to resign Shattenkirk or Russell or sign another veteran dman in the summer.
    People saying you need to win a cup or bust during McDavid ELC are basically being drama queens. The key is to make this team a perennial cup contender for the next 7 or 8 years. That will increase the odds of winning 1 or more cups during our McDavid period. Going for it all this year or next basically increases the odds of a swing and a miss.
    This team can win after McDavid, Draisaitl, nurse and JP have signed their second contracts. Fayne and poo will be off the books, unfortunately Lucic will not. The key advantage Chia has is that he has his potential first paring under contract for 8 million for the next 5 years. This is a huge ace in the hole and I am surprised more posters don’t mention this. Basically he just needs to maintain the roster he has, avoid bad contracts and flip the players he can’t afford for younger cheaper talent.
    Basically the hard part is done. I believe Chia has his core players already on the roster. He just has to make good decisions filling the holes on the edges. Simple right.

  130. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Btw, Adam Larsson’s last minus game was on December 9. Since then he has played 16 GP, 0-3-3, +9 with all 3 of those points coming in the last 5 games. He’s really found his comfort zone in the new year.

    by way of comparison — though they really aren’t comparable, Hall is the anti-Larsson —in the same time period Hall is 17 GP, 3-6-9, -5. (Their teams aren’t comparable either.)

    Meanwhile, Damon Severson who got promoted to Larsson’s old spot in NJD as 1RD is -22 on the year, behind 792 NHLers and ahead of 1– Tyson Barrie. And yes of course I realize +/- is flawed & also situation dependent (see Justin Schultz for details) , butgoal differential is a thing all the same and even a guy who can consistently saw off has value in the Bettman Point era.

    Using your same cutoff date Dec 9th, here are some of Larsson’s advanced stats splits.
    CA60 CF%
    Oct’16-Dec’16 56.53 50.26
    Dec’16-Jan’17 48.15 53.07

    SA60 SF%
    Oct’16-Dec’16 31.71 50.09
    Dec’16-Jan’17 26.01 53.28

    GA60
    Oct’16-Dec’16 3.15
    Dec’16-Jan’17 1.42

    xGA60
    Oct’16-Dec’16 2.79
    Dec’16-Jan’17 2.22

    SCA60
    Oct’16-Dec’16 9.79
    Dec’16-Jan’17 7.52

    PDO
    Oct’16-Dec’16 97.4
    Dec’16-Jan’17 104.12

    A very nice improvement

  131. Ducey says:

    Looking at that Leon, Bennett, Ekblad, Reinhart 2014 draft, Leon is the first one to 100 pts.

    Even with hindsight, it looks like the Oilers got that one right.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2014e.html

    Oh, and Connor is the first one in his draft class to hit 100 pts too.

  132. SwedishPoster says:

    While both Larsson and Salming are from the north of Sweden, Börje is from Kiruna and Larsson is from Skellefteå, Kiruna is something like 470 km further north, the part of Sweden where the real tough, cool, handsone, intelligent people come from(like me! Not Kiruna but close).

  133. Chachi says:

    ashley: What’s the denominator?

    I am going to guess it is the lowest common denominator.

  134. bendelson says:

    Oilanderp: If you ever compare my favourite hockey team to Duran Duran again, I will find you.
    This has been your only warning.Good day.

    No kidding. Duran Duran? Come on now…
    They are no Arcadia!
    (Well, that’s not entirely true now is it?)

  135. Scungilli says:

    I’m mostly interested in what will happen as opposed to what has happened. Hall Schultz and Yak are gone.

    I see a lot of potential for point shots and puck carriers already on the roster. The question is will they be allowed to grow into being better at it. Think of how many failed sorties Hall and Schultz had. How long did it take Souray and Pronger to get good manning the PP?

    If they can get balance and let guys settle into roles I think a lot of the issues with team play will resolve from within. To speed it up will take experienced players that are affordable.

  136. Oilanderp says:

    Chachi: I am going to guess it is the lowest common denominator.

    I’m going to go with 1 chilliwack of time as the denominator. I like chilliwacks, but it could be crazy talk.

  137. Chachi says:

    Oilanderp: I’m going to go with 1 chilliwack of time as the denominator.I like chilliwacks.

    Me too, but they’ve been gone so long…

  138. who says:

    Scungilli:
    I’m mostly interested in what will happen as opposed to what has happened. Hall Schultz and Yak are gone.

    I see a lot of potential for point shots and puck carriers already on the roster. The question is will they be allowed to grow into being better at it. Think of how many failed sorties Hall and Schultz had. How long did it take Souray and Pronger to get good manning the PP?

    If they can get balance and let guys settle into roles I think a lot of the issues with team play will resolve from within. To speed it up will take experienced players that are affordable.

    Souray was never good at manning a power play. He had a big shot. That is it. Markov made him a power play weapon in Montreal.

  139. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    No, that means his teammates clean up for him. I don’t have my computer in front of me to crunch numbers but he’s been consistently one of the best in creating hd scoring chances in the league and out of that you have a 25 goal scorer and 65 point producer. A guy that creates his level of scoring chances should be closer to Jamie Benn 35 goal 80 points who typically creates similar hd scoring chance levels. People always post with Hall his ability to create scoring chances but they conveniently never post a HD scoring chance conversion percentage which without it they conveniently leave out an important piece of the story.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey:
    Looking at that Leon, Bennett, Ekblad, Reinhart 2014 draft, Leon is the first one to 100 pts.

    Even with hindsight, it looks like the Oilers got that one right.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2014e.html

    Oh, and Connor is the first one in his draft class to hit 100 pts too.

    Comparing Ekblad to Fs to assess his draft value?

    That player could become a perennial Norris candidate.

    All that said, I’m extremely happy we have Leon. He’s the second coming of Joe Thornton with a better shot.

  141. Bag of Pucks says:

    rstahl: Does your answer change if I tell you Team A is the Hartford Whalers and Team B the St. Louis Blues?

    Pronger for Shanahan is a great historical comparison for Larrson for Hall.Down to the comments on how Pronger had a disappointing season, and how everyone in Hartford was unanimously in favour of the trade.http://www.courant.com/sports/hockey/hartford-whalers/hc-whalers-archive-july-28-1995-story.html.

    The biggest differences I see in the comparison on the defenseman side:
    Pronger had played fewer games (less established, perhaps more upside due to youth)
    Prongers PPG average was higher
    Larrson’s +/- was better

    I would say where the comparison falls apart is Shanahan-Hall.Yes, there are era effects, but Taylor hall has scored 20+ goals 4 times in his career.At the time of the trade, Shanahan had failed to score 20 goals only in his rookie season, and already had two 50 goal seasons, with two more 30 goal seasons.

    Pronger as a comp for Larsson.

    I’ve always wondered what jumping the shark would feel like.

    Now I know.

  142. gogliano says:

    If we deadline deal, I’d prefer something smaller with a team out of the playoffs. To shore up depth on the RW.

    Versteeg for a late round pick? Would that work?

    I’d say one RW or C, plus Puljujarvi and Lander calls ups, plus the subtraction of Hendricks, will give us a decent playoff roster. Long shot for the cup but it would give the kids a chance to make some noise.

  143. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks: Pronger as a comp for Larsson.

    I’ve always wondered what jumping the shark would feel like.

    Now I know.

    Hedman is a better comp for Pronger. These guys can impact the game offensively, defensively, play against top comp., PP1, PK1 and excel in all situations. Elite number 1 Dman.

    Jason Smith is more of comp for Larsson. Tough, very good defensively. Can play against top comp, PK1 and do well. Not much offense, dont play PP.

  144. delooper says:

    jonrmcleod:
    During the last minute of OT, the Florida TV crew was saying, “MCDAVID AND DRAISAITL ARE STUCK ON THE ICE! THEY’RE DEAD TIRED!” Little did they know.

    Draisaitl sure has such a clumbsy / lumbering stride. He looks tired when he’s fresh. But he moves pretty fast even when he looks like all his joints are welded together.

  145. NativeNotFrench says:

    delooper: aisaitl sure has such a clumbsy / lumbering stride. He looks tired when he’s fresh. But he moves pretty fast even when he looks like all his joints are welded together.

    Agreed! He’s a deceiving player to watch, I find he looks like he’s conserving as much energy as possible until he decides to go and then it’s on and he’s flying. Weird skater and not a skating style I recall seeing that often

  146. Woogie63 says:

    With JJ out for abit and Benning ready to play, what about playing Davidson on 4LW for 2 games. This might give us flexibility at the expansion draft. I am sure he can handle 10 sheltered shifts a game.

  147. Truth says:

    Would the Leafs consider trading Bozak for Davidson? Would the Oilers? The Leafs personal television coverage at TSN talk about their need to upgrade D constantly. Both are targets to be lost in the expansion draft for each team. They could end up swapping to help their respective new teams only to be teammates in Vegas.

    Bozak is a right shot C, same amount of pts as Eberle (28), and 57% in the faceoff dot this year.

  148. Georges says:

    N64: Or Coach is gaming the Bettman point system. There are 3 tiers in the NHL.

    3. Can’t make the playoffs.
    2. Can’t make the playoffs without Bettman points
    1. Can make the playoffs without Bettman points

    Oil have moved up into the 2nd tier.

    I don’t get this. What does without Bettman points mean? What kind of points system are we using instead? Overtime has innovations like 3v3 and shootouts. The game in overtime is not the same as the game in regulation. Why would a team that wins under overtime conditions be entitled to the same 2 points as the team that wins in regulation? And why would a team that gets to the end of regulation with a tie have to give up that point because it lost playing a game that wasn’t the same as the game as it played in regulation. We don’t change the rules for overtime in the playoffs, right?

    If you’re going to take away Bettman points to “punish” teams for overtime losses, you should also take away points to “punish” teams for overtime wins.

    When we’re ranking teams, rather than taking away Bettman points, we can treat overtime as its own special animal and just look at a team’s record in regulation. The Oilers have 57 points and they are 0.680 in regulation from the numbers I pulled from this site:

    https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-wins-by-type-regulation-overtime-and-shootout/2016/

    They rank 8th on both counts. If we go back to the old early 80’s 2-point system where there is no such thing as overtime and treat all overtime games as ties, the Oilers also rank 8th.

    Finally, if we go back to a 2-point system with 5v5 overtime where about a 1/3 of OT games were decided, we can use the team’s regulation record as an estimate of its likelihood of winning a decided game in OT. This also puts the Oilers at 8th.

    On W-L, the Oilers are 17-8 in regulation and 8-7 in OT. The correlation between regulation winning percentage and OT winning percentage this season is slightly negative. That tells you that regulation and OT are different worlds. Regular season OT is its own special animal that doesn’t exist in the playoffs.

    The Oilers don’t settle a lot of games in regulation. They’re ranked 25th on this. But settling things in regulation is just as much hallmark of a weak team as it is of a strong team. If you’re tied at the end of regulation, you haven’t won but you also haven’t lost. Losing in the OT format doesn’t give you useful information about performance in the playoffs. It’s the regulation record that gives you a sense of how good the Oilers are at winning (and not losing) the regular 5v5 games, the kind that are played in the playoffs. And they’re OK, sitting about where they would be if you looked at the plain vanilla standings today, comfortably in the playoffs.

    *** edit: Bruce pointed out a mistake I made in calculating W-L records in OT. The Oilers record in regulation is 17-15 not 17-8. The Oilers ranking drops if you look at regulation winning percentage or previous systems for awarding points. The Oilers move from 8th to 11th in regulation winning percentage and to 10th on the previous systems for awarding points. In the post, I said their ranking stayed the same. This isn’t correct.

  149. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: Using your same cutoff date Dec 9th, here are some of Larsson’s advanced stats splits.CA60CF%
    Oct’16-Dec’1656.5350.26
    Dec’16-Jan’1748.1553.07

    SA60SF%
    Oct’16-Dec’1631.7150.09
    Dec’16-Jan’1726.0153.28

    GA60
    Oct’16-Dec’163.15
    Dec’16-Jan’171.42

    xGA60
    Oct’16-Dec’162.79
    Dec’16-Jan’172.22

    SCA60
    Oct’16-Dec’169.79
    Dec’16-Jan’177.52

    PDO
    Oct’16-Dec’1697.4
    Dec’16-Jan’17104.12

    A very nice improvement

    Thanks for this, I’d meant to dig in a bit more depth & you’ve saved me the trouble while corroborating more or less what I would expect to find. Corsica, I presume?

    There was a reason I kept saying I wanted to see Larsson play 40 games before passing judgment on him. It seems to take many players a good half-year to a year to feel comfortable in their new surroundings (recent e.g.s Talbot, Sekera, Lucic [knocks on wood]), let’s just call Maroon the exception rather than the rule, perhaps because he arrived with lower expectations than those other dudes).

    Sure enough it’s really only been the last month that we’ve seen the upside of this player, hopefully it’s the new normal. Goodness knows he is helping to fill what has been a mega-hole on the back end for a while and the team is better for that, even as it paid the price elsewhere.

    Not ready to “pass judgment” on the trade even now, it was always apples for pineapples. But I don’t hate it as vociferously as some do.

  150. Georges says:

    Bruce McCurdy:

    … but goal differential is a thing all the same and even a guy who can consistently saw off has value in the Bettman Point era.

    Bruce, I’ve seen you post before about your disdain for the Bettman point. I see it as a modification Bettman had to make (extra point) to get what he was really after (more entertainment value when games have a winner and a loser). Before the Bettman point was introduced, I have that about 20% of games got to OT. Since it was introduced, about 24% of games have gone to OT. Coaches are playing to get that point but it works out to what, an extra 3 or 4 games a season. Do you dislike the point because you think it has made coaches more conservative? Or something else?

  151. N64 says:

    Georges: I don’t get this. What does without Bettman points mean? What kind of points system are we using instead? Overtime has innovations like 3v3 and shootouts. The game in overtime is not the same as the game in regulation. Why would a team that wins under overtime conditions be entitled to the same 2 points as the team that wins in regulation? And why would a team that gets to the end of regulation with a tie have to give up that point because it lost playing a game that wasn’t the same as the game as it played in regulation. We don’t change the rules for overtime in the playoffs, right?

    If you’re going to take away Bettman points to “punish” teams for overtime losses, you should also take away points to “punish” teams for overtime wins.

    When we’re ranking teams, rather than taking away Bettman points, we can treat overtime as its own special animal and just look at a team’s record in regulation. The Oilers have 57 points and they are 0.680 in regulation from the numbers I pulled from this site:

    https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-wins-by-type-regulation-overtime-and-shootout/2016/

    They rank 8th on both counts. If we go back to the old early 80’s 2-point system where there is no such thing as overtime and treat all overtime games as ties, the Oilers also rank 8th.

    Finally, if we go back to a 2-point system with 5v5 overtime where about a 1/3 of OT games were decided, we can use the team’s regulation record as an estimate of its likelihood of winning a decided game in OT. This also puts the Oilers at 8th.

    On W-L, the Oilers are 17-8 in regulation and 8-7 in OT. The correlation between regulation winning percentage and OT winning percentage this season is slightly negative. That tells you that regulation and OT are different worlds. Regular season OT is its own special animal that doesn’t exist in the playoffs.

    The Oilers don’t settle a lot of games in regulation. They’re ranked 25th on this. But settling things in regulation is just as much hallmark of a weak team as it is of a strong team. If you’re tied at the end of regulation, you haven’t won but you also haven’t lost. Losing in the OT format doesn’t give you useful information about performance in the playoffs. It’s the regulation record that gives you a sense of how good the Oilers are at winning (and not losing) the regular 5v5 games, the kind that are played in the playoffs. And they’re OK, sitting about where they would be if you looked at the plain vanilla standings today, comfortably in the playoffs.

    Georges,

    To clarify I am not referring to any changes to the current system. I’m talking about how teams at the bottom, middle and top experience the effects of the Bettman point.

    Teams in the middle need to be painfully aware that the average end result from a tied game is .750 (1.5 points per game). Whereas the average result from all other games is .500 (1 pt per game). Their route to the playoffs typically requires more tied games and their coaches need to emphasis defense over offense to ensure this.

    Top tier teams still need to manage close games (they’ll have them in the playoffs as well) but their coaches are not as dependent on the Bettman point and can take a wider view of the game.

  152. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks: Comparing Ekblad to Fs to assess his draft value?

    That player could become a perennial Norris candidate.

    All that said, I’m extremely happy we have Leon. He’s the second coming of Joe Thornton with a better shot.

    Ekblad was not available for the Oilers. Its kind of tough to blame them for not drafting him. Even for this site.

  153. N64 says:

    Georges: Coaches are playing to get that point but it works out to what, an extra 3 or 4 games a season. Do you dislike the point because you think it has made coaches more conservative? Or something else?

    They have to play to that lots of games to average a extra 3 or 4 points a season. If you tell me one target pays .750 and the other .500 I know which one I’m targeting. If I’m paid to drive scoring out of game, guess what I do.

    But the rub is the best teams get to a place where there playoff entry does not depend on this. So in theory their coaches can take a wider view of developing their teams for every style of game.

    UPDATE: Some teams spends months trying to make up 3-4 pts to reach the playoff cutoff. They never seem to get there because of 3 point games. Curious how that 24% average graphs across the season.

  154. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Corsica, I presume?

    yes.

    Bruce McCurdy: There was a reason I kept saying I wanted to see Larsson play 40 games before passing judgment on him. It seems to take many players a good half-year to a year to feel comfortable in their new surroundings (recent e.g.s Talbot, Sekera, Lucic [knocks on wood])

    Yup agree with you here. I feel that the differences in playing style ( coming from the Devils to the Oilers) is significant. Im expecting Larsson to continue to improve.
    I expect to see a Nurse Larsson shutdown nasty pairing in the near future.

    Bruce McCurdy: Not ready to “pass judgment” on the trade even now, it was always apples for pineapples. But I don’t hate it as vociferously as some do.

    I try to refrain from talking about the Hall For Larsson UNLESS the HOST of this blog mentions it in the title post. So you wont see me say anything about this trade until LT mentions it in a title post again 🙂

  155. N64 says:

    Ducey: Ekblad was not available for the Oilers. Its kind of tough to blame them for not drafting him. Even for this site.

    Even for Verdad that’s a lot of compelting. 😉

  156. Seismic Source says:

    Nick Bjugstad would be my target. He might be available.

  157. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Georges: On W-L, the Oilers are 17-8 in regulation and 8-7 in OT.

    This is incorrect. The Oilers are 17-15-15 in regulation and 8-7 in overtime. In all they have won 25 and lost 22 games, with 7 of those losses in the 1-point column.

    Georges: If you’re going to take away Bettman points to “punish” teams for overtime losses, you should also take away points to “punish” teams for overtime wins.

    There are three ways to figure Bettman points.

    — The most common is to look at the “O” column and consider that the loser got the third point.

    — A more nuanced view is that it is the winner that gets the third point, the two teams having split the 2 points in regulation and then playing a special mini-game for the third point (what I call gimmick time to incorporate both 3v3 and the shootout), which together produce a result and a 2-1 split in points in 100% of tied games.

    — The third way to figure it is as a probability within the context of the game itself, which at the end of regulation has a value of 1 point to be split between 2 teams = 0.5 points. I call it the Schrodinger’s Cat Point, it’s a black box that once opened will yield 1 or 0 points, but while closed is a probabilistic 0.5 points.

    Thus the “genius” of the Bettman Point system can be quantified this way: regulation win = 2 points; regulation loss = 0 points; regulation tie = 1.5 points. You do the math and tell me what coach in his right mind is going to play aggressively for the regulation win.

    The Oilers have 7 Bettman Points by the first measure, 8 by the second, and 7.5 by the third, meaning their results in overtime are pretty normal. What stands out is how often they have reached overtime, nearly a third of their games compared to a league average closer to one quarter.

    In the last 22 games that has been more than one HALF of games, where 7 gimmick-time wins have transmogrified a 5-5-12 record in regulation into a 12-5-5 mark in #BettmanMath. Seems elite, eh? But a true record of .500 within the 60-minute games, and a net goal differential of exactly zero (57 GF, 57 GA, including OT but not SO).

  158. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy: In the last 22 games that has been more than one HALF of games, where 7 gimmick-time wins have transmogrified a 5-5-12 record in regulation into a 12-5-5 mark in #BettmanMath. Seems elite, eh? But a true record of .500 within the 60-minute games, and a net goal differential of exactly zero (57 GF, 57 GA, including OT but not SO).

    Dave Tippett just read this and will now have to hold a pillow over his lap for the next half hour to hide how excited it makes him.

  159. Stelio Kontos says:

    I don’t see chicago making those trades. Pittsburgh probably would have when they were at this stage. We need a decent forward (RW or C), and a little faith.

  160. Georges says:

    N64: Georges,

    To clarify I am not referring to any changes to the current system. I’m talking about how teams at the bottom, middle and top experience the effects of the Bettman point.

    Teams in the middle need to be painfully aware that the average end result from a tied game is .750 (1.5 points per game). Whereas the average result from all other games is .500 (1 pt per game). Their route to the playoffs typically requires more tied games and their coaches need to emphasis defense over offense to ensure this.

    Top tier teams still need to manage close games (they’ll have them in the playoffs as well) but their coaches are not as dependent on the Bettman point and can take a wider view of the game.

    I sorted teams on their winning percentage and grouped them into groups of 5. For each group, I calculated the average of points awarded in the games that they’ve played. Here’s what I get:

    Group, PointsAwarded/GP

    1, 2.25
    2, 2.23
    3, 2.28
    4, 2.24
    5, 2.29
    6, 2.23

    I wouldn’t argue that those averages are very different.

    Here’s the raw data:

    Team, PointsAwarded/GP

    CBJ 2.26
    WAS 2.27
    MIN 2.21
    PIT 2.25
    MTL 2.24
    CHI 2.30
    NYR 2.09
    ANA 2.28
    SJS 2.18
    EDM 2.32
    OTT 2.24
    TOR 2.31
    STL 2.24
    CAR 2.27
    PHI 2.33
    CGY 2.17
    BOS 2.21
    NSH 2.20
    LAK 2.31
    VAN 2.33
    FLA 2.36
    DET 2.33
    NJD 2.37
    TAM 2.17
    DAL 2.22
    NYI 2.26
    BUF 2.27
    WPG 2.19
    ARI 2.27
    COL 2.14

    *** edited out win%

  161. Woodguy says:

    ashley: I don’t think this answer’s the question quoted.What’s the denominator?

    Well seeing as he’s 4th in 1A/60 and top 20 in Primary points/60 we can assume:

    1) His team converts a high percentage of chances

    or

    2) If his team doesn’t convert a high percentage of his created chances then he creates a metric shit-ton of chances, given his primary points/60

    Either is good

  162. Adam Wu says:

    An OT win is not a Bettman point! Teams were getting 2 points for winning in OT long before Bettman, since 1983.

    A SO loss is also not a Bettman point! Teams have been getting 1 point for being tied after 5 min of OT since 1983 as well.

    Bettman points are for SO wins and OT losses. These are the situations where a team gets an extra point they otherwise would not have had before Bettman’s changes to the rules.

  163. spoiler says:

    Georges,

    I think the Bettman point is in place because Gate receipts are the primary form of revenue for owners and the point keeps the revenues up for longer on a seasonal basis. Which is why it is here to stay. No owner would ever want to see it gone.

  164. Professor Q says:

    frjohnk: Have you run the numbers to see where the Oilers would place without Bettman points?

    You’d have to take out not only points from OT Ws AND Ls and switch them to 1 T point each, but also change up the GF/GA (which could also impact standings position).

  165. rstahl says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    You forgot to strengthen your argument by also pointing out how ridiculous it is to use Shanahan as a comp for Hall.

    Pronger in 1995 wasn’t guaranteed to become 1998-2010 Pronger. It is not reasonable to project 2016 Larsson into a first ballet hall of famer; this is not my argument.

    My argument is the apparent value of a trade can change with time. Looking back at both Shanahan’s and Pronger’s careers, valid cases can be made on both sides for each player having the more impactful career.

    That is not how the pundits called it in 1995 though. In 1995, Shanahan was “one of the elite power forwards in the game” and Chris Pronger “was disappointing, but he has the size and skill to develop into a fine defenseman”.

  166. Georges says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This is incorrect. The Oilers are 17-15-15 in regulation and 8-7 in overtime. In all they have won 25 and lost 22 games, with 7 of those losses in the 1-point column.

    Dammit! Always look at the formulas in the damn spreadsheet. And know your numbers! Why the heck did I think the Oilers were 17-8 in regulation?? So, OK, this pulls the Oilers back to 11th instead of 8th. The Oilers regulation record is about the same as their OT record. And they’re not the same caliber of regulation team as the teams out in front of them.

    Thank you, Bruce.

  167. spoiler says:

    frjohnk: Hedman is a better comp for Pronger.These guys can impact the game offensively, defensively, play against top comp., PP1, PK1 and excel in all situations.Elite number 1 Dman.

    Jason Smith is more of comp for Larsson.Tough, very good defensively.Can play against top comp, PK1 and do well.Not much offense, dont play PP.

    I’m not sure I buy Hall as a comp for Shanny either. These are both lesser pieces than what was involved in that trade by GM perceptions.

  168. commonfan14 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Thus the “genius” of the Bettman Point system can be quantified this way: regulation win = 2 points; regulation loss = 0 points; regulation tie = 1.5 points. You do the math and tell me what coach in his right mind is going to play aggressively for the regulation win.

    Indeed.

    To really encourage coaches to go for it in Regulation, one would have to remove the Regulation Loss as the worst-case scenario.

    I don’t know that there’s a good way to do that, but a fairly crazy one that occurred to me the other day would be to go to the 3 point system, but not in the way most people talk about it:

    3 points for a Regulation Win
    2 points for a Regulation Loss
    1 point for an OT or Shootout Win
    0 points for an OT or Shootout Loss

    That would make for some crazy endings to tied games, but would be really bad at encouraging teams to try to come back if they get down a goal or two.

    Can anyone think of a good way to get coaches to like Regulation Losses more?

  169. spoiler says:

    It seems to me that when we discuss the Hall trade in particular, and trades in general, that people think there is some sort of absolute value we can measure these players by. That we can drop them onto a giant set of scales that will tilt one way or the other and tell us who won the trade. This is obviously not true and we know from Economics that absolute value is a fallacy. Things have subjective value.

    In the case of Hall deal, I don’t think either GM is unhappy with the way things have worked out, which is really what a trade should be. Both players brought things their old teams now miss, but both players also bring things their new teams lacked. As is to be expected.

    Also trades seem to be judged primarily by recency bias.

    I’d guess both fanbases, in general, are happier with the trade now than they were at the time.

  170. Ducey says:

    Adam Wu:
    An OT win is not a Bettman point! Teams were getting 2 points for winning in OT long before Bettman, since 1983.

    A SO loss is also not a Bettman point! Teams have been getting 1 point for being tied after 5 min of OT since 1983 as well.

    Bettman points are for SO wins and OT losses. These are the situations where a team gets an extra point they otherwise would not have had before Bettman’s changes to the rules.

    Good “points”

  171. Ducey says:

    spoiler:
    It seems to me that when we discuss the Hall trade in particular, and trades in general, that people think there is some sort of absolute value we can measure these players by.That we can drop them onto a giant set of scales that will tilt one way or the other and tell us who won the trade.

    In the case of Hall deal, I don’t think either GM is unhappy with the way things have worked out, which is really what a trade should be.Both players brought things their old teams now miss, but both players also bring things their new teams lacked.As is to be expected.

    Also trades seem to be judged primarily by recency bias.

    I’d guess both fanbases, in general, are happier with the trade now than they were at the time.

    Think so? I would think NJ fans are less happy given their team is exactly on the same pace as last year and will miss the playoffs again.

  172. spoiler says:

    frjohnk: Jason Smith is more of comp for Larsson. Tough, very good defensively. Can play against top comp, PK1 and do well. Not much offense, dont play PP.

    Style-wise I agree, this might be a better comp. Although I am going to argue that Larsson is a better version of Smith, who didn’t show the same level of ability till an older age.

  173. spoiler says:

    Ducey,

    Less happy with the season? Sure. I don’t see any evidence they’ve as a whole grown unhappy with the trade, given Hall’s play/production. Maybe you’ve seen something to the contrary? Where they’ve expected more from Hall than what he has brought?

  174. N64 says:

    Thanks., Unless I’m well above the churn I’m skewing everything to uncover the .750 black box instead of the .500 box as many nights as possible. Even if my approach only opens the .750 box 10% more than the mean that will average me an extra 4.1 pts. The difference between the teams that chase and never catch up and the playoff bound.

  175. spoiler says:

    Ducey,

    Lol… and shouldn’t some of the blame go on the GM? Why didn’t NJD sign Demers as a UFA to replace Larsson? At least the Oilers went out and got Lucic.
    😉

  176. lacking the apathy says:

    If we were to try to go for a cheap, underachieving player with the possibility of a large payoff/reward scenario, what about Curtis Lazar? In the middle of a brutal season right now (0 points in 21 gp), was in the ahl earlier this season (3 g 1a in 13gp). Maybe a change of scenery could do him some good? Decent size, not bad hands, and according to his scouting report hardworking, possessing solid leadership qualities, good defensively, and not afraid to mix it up and get physical. He’s only 21, right shot, has experience playing centre, is an rfa after this season, and I’m guessing could be had for pretty cheap. Was trending well until this year with 15 point in his rookie year followed by a 20 pt campaign last season. Any thoughts?

  177. Bruce McCurdy says:

    N64:
    Thanks., Unless I’m well above the churn I’m skewing everything to uncover the .750 black box instead of the .500 box as many nights as possible. Even if my approach only opens the .750 box 10% more than the mean that will average me an extra 4.1 pts. The difference between the teams that chase and never catch up and the playoff bound.

    Absofreakinglutely. That the various groups have similar P/GP percentage simply reflects the fact that all teams know how it works, so it’s in everybody’s interest to play the system for everything they can. Integrity of competition be damned, in a tie game Job One in regulation for BOTH teams is always “avoid giving up the winner” and Job Two is “go for the win”. After the 60-minute siren Job One is essentially accomplished meaning more focus can go on Job Two. Plus that crazy 3-on-3, 5-minute limit, shootout means that things will be resolved one way or another. A coin flip for a point that DID NOT EXIST at the start of the game is a desirable result.

  178. Georges says:

    N64:
    Thanks., Unless I’m well above the churn I’m skewing everything to uncover the .750 black box instead of the .500 box as many nights as possible. Even if my approach only opens the .750 box 10% more than the mean that will average me an extra 4.1 pts. The difference between the teams that chase and never catch up and the playoff bound.

    After recovering from my brain cramp on the Oilers regulation record, I agree that you’re right to view them as a squarely in the woods team as opposed to an out of the woods team. Your explanation is intuitive and that’s how I view them as well. I guess what the numbers on points awarded show is that there’s a limit to how much control a coach has. The teams just on the outside looking in (LAK, VCR, NJD, FLA, DET) really play not to lose. But playing not to lose was a good strategy before the Bettman point too.

  179. rstahl says:

    I would like to clarify my position on Taylor Hall – he is an elite winger. Where he stands depends on what stat you believe best reflects a wingers utility – points, or goals.

    From Corsica Hockey, 2013-2017, 5v5, score and venue adjusted, minimimum 2000 min TOI , only L/R wingers.

    Player, rank in : rel Corsi%, rel xGF%, rel GF% — Points Per Game, Goals Per Game — Total Points, Total Goals

    Alex Ovechkin – 39, 86, 101 — 16, 1 — 10, 1
    Patrick Kane – 76, 114, 45 — 1, 3 — 2, 4
    Jamie Benn – 45, 42, 33 — 3, 9 — 1, 6
    Vladimir Tarasenko – 18, 14, 3 — 4, 7 — 3, 5
    Rick Nash – 66, 41, 48 — 18 ,4 — 26, 9
    Max Pacioretty –6, 16, 23 — 18, 6 — 9, 3
    Jaromir Jagr – 5, 2, 1 — 6, 37 — 6, 20

    Taylor Hall – 27, 9, 7 — 2, 29 — 6, 32
    Milan Lucic – 55, 94, 18 — 29, 26 — 15, 13

    A few observations:

    Using relative shot measures to rank wingers across teams does not accurately reflect a wingers value, unless you think Alex Ovechkin is at best the 39th best winger in the NHL over the past 5 seasons.

    If I had to choose one ranking – Total Goals. However, even this list unfairly penalizes wingers with great play making skills like Kane and Hall.

    Jarmoir Jagr is unreal.

    Concerns over Taylor Hall’s injury and/or lack of elite hands are overblown. The man has scored the 6th most points for wingers in the past 5 years.

    Oilers fans may be undervaluing Lucic. Yes, there are concerns over the length of his contract, but as of today I would rank him just outside of the elite group of wings, is a solid first line option.

  180. rstahl says:

    spoiler,
    I agree with Spoiler this is selling Larsson’s offense short, but in terms of style Gator is a great comp for Larsson.

  181. russ99 says:

    Seismic Source:
    Nick Bjugstad would be my target. He might be available.

    He’s hurt, groin injury.

  182. Oilspill says:

    Wasnt Gryba traded for Ewanyk. Marcinin was a different transaction.
    Now chance Shatty comes here. He’s an eastern kid who will give a discount to stay in the east with a competitive team. The best chance is a sole rental with no commitment.

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