TRADE WINDS

We are now five weeks from the trade deadline and have a general idea about what Edmonton might be looking for this deadline. I had a lash at the possible assets out over at Oilers Nation, and will re-list the top 10:

  1. 2017 first-round pick—No. 23 or so this year. Appears to be enough talent to get a good prospect there.
  2. 2018 first-round pick—No. 23? Seems like a reasonable estimate.
  3. Brandon Davidson—He has good value, reasonable contract has one more year.
  4. 2018 second-round pick—No. 54?
  5. Caleb Jones—He has good speed, some offense, and is one of Edmonton’s more famous prospects.
  6. Jujhar Khaira—I think NHL teams would like his size and future contract.
  7. Ethan Bear—RH defender with a big shot from the point.
  8. Anton Slepyshev—Unsure if he should be higher (N0. 5?) have him here.
  9. Griffin Reinhart—Famous prospect with high draft pedigree.
  10. 2017 third-round pick (No. 82)—No idea if the draft stretches this deep.

Any others? Agree with the list? Speak now or forever hold your peace. At the beginning of the year, I wrote about possible assets who might be of interest to Edmonton (it is here). Today, I will give it another try. First, this.

OILERS PAIRINGS, 2016-17

  • Klefbom—Larsson have played a lot together, delivered over 50 percent in possession and their goals for percentage should be better based on what we know.
  • Sekera—Russell are the second most common pairing this season, and their 46 percent possession number tells me the Oilers should split them (and run Sekera with Matt Benning). The pairing’s goals-for percentage is dynamite, though, and I think the Oilers value this kind of metric more than Corsi (or, as they like to call it, shot volume).
  • No one talks about Darnell Nurse anymore, but if the Oilers had a third pairing rotation of Nurse, Brandon Davidson and Matt Benning, I think the top 7D (two pairings above, plus these three) looks pretty good for the playoff run. With the high price of defensemen, maybe Peter Chiarelli looks elsewhere?
  • I think goaltending is on the table. Laurent Brossoit won on Saturday, but if Edmonton is serious about winning a playoff round, then getting a more capable option makes sense. Goalies cost less than defensemen.

FORWARDS, 2016-17

  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl are running well currently, and as shown here there are other wingers who can work well with 97. I think the one line we shouldn’t worry about is McDavid’s, he can mix and match well with the entire group.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle have played over 100 minutes, and things are going better now. I think Todd McLellan may be able to count on this line for the rest of the year.
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian have played almost 100 minutes together, and have had success. Edmonton could run Anton Lander or Jujhar Khaira there, but McLellan appears to prefer the veteran. If that is the 4line, can you live with it?
  • So, we are left with a need on the 3line. Milan Lucic, Drake Caggiula and Anton Slepyshev are currently there, where do you want to see them upgrade? I think 3C is ideal, depending on price. Fair? So, we go to market looking for a backup goalie and a 3C, with the list above as bait.
  • All stats via Corsica.Hockey.

POSSIBLE ACQUISITIONS

  • Anaheim Ducks: RHD Brandon Montour. He is a nice player. I know we just talked about not having a need specifically for a power-play quarterback, but this guy would be worth going walkabout at the deadline imo.
  • Arizona Coyotes: C Martin Hanzal is coming up on free agency, but I think Chiarelli would look long and hard at this player—with an eye to re-signing him. RHD Mark Stone is also an interesting name, and he could help the Oilers in the future, but I am uncertain if he is completely healthy based on his numbers this year.
  • Arizona Coyotes: R Radim Vrbata is also a rental, but he would be a perfect fit for Edmonton this season. In 37 games, he has 113 shots. Excellent match for the Oilers.
  • Boston Bruins: C-L Ryan Spooner is coming on now, but there was a time not long ago when his name appeared on several rumor sites of note. More winger than center, he has actual skill and could be a useful addition. Edmonton could use his skill and PC would know him. A clear upgrade on Drake Caggiula for this season, possibly beyond. Bruins might be convinced of Davidson.
  • Buffalo Sabres: G Anders Nilsson. Owns a .925 SP and knows the terrain.
  • Calgary Flames: RHD Dennis Wideman is probably a player of interest, if available.
  • Colorado Avalanche: C Matt Duchene has a $6M cap and would take a village to acquire, but hell boys he might be worth it. Fantastic player. RHD Tyson Barrie is not having a fantastic season, but would help out the offense, and if the Oilers placed him with Sekera, that might be a nice fit.
  • Dallas Stars: R Ales Hemsky is out long term, I would love to see him back here for another playoff run. R Patrick Eaves is a UFA and having a strong year (17 goals), he might be a good fit.
  • Detroit Red Wings: R Thomas Vanek is having a good year and would be a solid addition. I have always liked RHD Ryan Sproul (21gp, 1-5-6) and he might be an interesting acquisition.
  • Florida Panthers: RC Nick Bjugstad is a player who intrigues, despite the low boxcars this year and the cap price. G Reto Berra is a solid choice for backup goalie. R Jaromir Jagr could be dealt, but I doubt he would be coming to Edmonton—more likely, he lands on a Stanley Cup favorite.
  • Los Angeles Kings: R Teddy Purcell played well for these Oilers a year ago, and would not break the bank in terms of assets required to acquire. Unlikely, but worth a mention.
  • New Jersey Devils: LHD Yohann Auvitu is unknown but has good numbers. Worth a try. R P.A. Parenteau is having a good season (again) and might help on RW.
  • Ottawa Senators: R Bobby Ryan has a major cap number ($7.25M) and middling results (39gp, 10-8-18) but he is a bigger winger with scoring ability and that matches the PC template. I don’t think this happens, but will list him just in case. C-R Curtis Lazar is an interesting player, mono has ravaged his season and his value is low. Played with Connor McDavid at WJs and might be available at this time due to struggles.
  • Philadelphia Flyers: R Matt Read is making big coin ($3.625M for this and next season) while shooting and scoring less this year. Edmonton could probably acquire him for less than 100 cents on the dollar and he could help on RW. LHD Mark Streit (35gp, 5-12-17) is just back from injury and would be a help for the PP. A lefty, he is not ideal but would shore up the 5×4.
  • St. Louis Blues: RD Kevin Shattenkirk may be available and would represent a perfect for for Edmonton. The price is probably too dear for a rental, but acquiring him will be tempting all the same.
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: L James VanRiemsdyk is a bigger winger with skill, certainly has been in the rumor mill from time to time this year. No idea of price, but he would be a help this season and beyond for Edmonton.
  • Winnipeg Jets: R Drew Stafford is having a putrid season, and makes a lot of coin. That said, he is 31 and should have lots of miles left. RD Jacob Trouba is out of reach, but a very nice fit.

INJURIES

The Oilers, like all sports organizations, have become less forthcoming about injuries over the years. Understandable on many levels, it can be galling for fans. In the last 24 hours, I have been asked publicly and privately about the state of Iiro Pakarinen’s injury. I will also tell you I have (in past weeks) been told Mr. Pakarinen has been spotted in Europe and in downtown Edmonton on back-to-back days, so would suggest the range is large in terms of what we all believe and think to be true. In regard to his injury and others, perhaps it is worthwhile listing what the Oilers website tells us:

  • Jujhar Khaira—Upper body, day-to-day
  • Matt Benning—Illness, day-to-day (he has since played)
  • Iiro Pakarinen—Lower body, out week-to-week
  • Darnell Nurse—IR, ankle, ligament and bone damage, out up to 12 weeks (as of December 12)
  • Tyler Pitlick—IR, torn ACL in left knee, out for season
  • Andrew Ference—LTIR, lower body, out for season
  • Source

Nurse should be coming around in the days leading up to Valentines, although a rehab assignment to Bakersfield is possible and he may not be 100 percent for some time. Anyone who saw the Pakarinen play knew it could be severe, and his recovery has been a long one. If he were able, I expect Pakarinen would be in Bakersfield on rehab while Jesse Puljujarvi is doing his AHL stint. It is a shame, as Pakarinen could be part of that RW solution at this time.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun, busy show with lots of Oilers content today. At 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Trouble in Boston, the fantastic scoring race, and Edmonton Oilers emerging as a playoff team and deadline buyer.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. A disappointing NFL Sunday has given us a pretty interesting Super Bowl.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers over Flames times four, NFL weekend.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue plus The SuperFan. We will talk deadline, protected list, and review Sunil’s prediction from one week ago).

10-1260 text, @Lowetide. Let’s get this week going!

 

 

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140 Responses to "TRADE WINDS"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    I would be delighted to get two points out of the next two games.

    Would usually have them circled on the calendar as ones to maybe ignore, but I think they could be the measuring stick of the team. Not expecting to beat them, but would like to see us compete with them.

    And you know something? SJ and ANA will bring their A game. They also would circle these games, but for different reasons; two guaranteed points. But now? We want their lunch, and we might not go away if they score early….

    Lordy, we’ve climbed a hill, and the view is amazing half way up already.

  2. Aitch says:

    Did you throw that NJ LHD in there just to check if we’re paying attention? Is he really that much better than the half-dozen LHD the team already has that want to play bottom 6 minutes?

  3. Oil2Oilers says:

    A deadline shopping list;

    Ryan Strome for Brandon Davidson

    Ryan Sproul for LHD Prospect (Reinhart)

    And a rental Jarome Iginla for roughly the same round of pick acquired for sending Matt Hendricks down the road.

    Age appropriate Right Handed balance and a playoff warrior.

  4. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I would add Hendricks and Pouliot to possible trade assets.

    I think Chia manages a good trade deadline, unlike the more mixed record at the draft, and I could see him being both buyer and seller at the same time, which is what you want to see.

    Would the Rangers be looking to go deep this year before the Lundqvist window closes and offer a 2nd for Pouliot, for example? Not that I want to trade Benny, but I could see some salary moving out in order to create room to add a Hanzal type.

  5. John Chambers says:

    Depending on how well or poorly Dallas plays over the next month, an ideal pickup for RW would be Patrick Sharp.

    I also like RW Jannik Hansen from the Canucks for the Pisani role.

  6. N64 says:

    Jethro Tull: I would be delighted to get two points out of the next two games.

    Would be extremely delighted to get seven points out of the next seven games.

    Long steep 7 game climb ahead. The over/under would be 5½ pts based on our .389 against the top 15:

    9th Anaheim .620
    8th San Jose .640
    3rd Minnesota .720
    13th Nashville .555
    15th Carolina .535
    5th Montreal .655
    6th Chicago .655

  7. npanciroli says:

    I think my targets would be RH shots only to be honest.

    Vrbata seems like the best fit in my opinion and probably doesn’t cost an arm and a leg like Hanzal who I have concerns about.

    I think the lines are starting to come around, even the third line, but would be interested to see something like:

    Maroon McDavid Vrbata
    Lucic Draisaitl Eberle
    Pouliot RNH Slepyshev
    Cagguila Letestu Kassian

    Use that center depth while you can afford it (before McDavid and Drai’s raises)

  8. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!: This post kind of read my mind from wrap-up of last one

    – I’m of the view that trade deadline won’t have many meaningful trades, given the Vegas draft.

    – If Davidson is traded for new D: the new team is likely to protect him, and we now protect 4 D

    – I hope I’m wrong, because trades are fun..

  9. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    On your potential targets list maybe add Sharp to the Dallas list?

  10. jm363561 says:

    There have been numerous comments over the years that it invariably takes D men time to settle into a new system, most recently when discussing Sekera and Larsson. Why would you go out and rent one for a few weeks (unless they are called Justin, or Jeff).

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    N64: Would be extremely delighted to get seven points out of the next seven games.

    Long steep 7 game climb ahead. The over/under would be 5½ pts based on our .389 against the top 15:

    3rd Minnesota .720
    5th Montreal .655
    6th Chicago .655
    8th San Jose .640
    9th Anaheim .620
    13th Nashville .555
    15th Carolina .535

    Meh. We, more than any other team, know that in this hockey era, you have to destroy your division.

    Then do very well against your conference. Then you just have to nibble at the soft underbelly of the East. Blam! Playoffs.

    LOL, a little glib I know, but my point is now there’s other teams and their fans now making lists like your fine one and not looking forward to playing the Oilers. Some teams used to get two or three 5 day breaks a year, depending on when they played us.

  12. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    N64,

    I think they can get 8-9.
    4-2-1 or 3-2-2
    Something like that. For every smaller sample size stat like points pct vs top teams there is also one like their record vs. Central Division, etc.
    So long as they can get some points out of the Anaheim and San Jose games they should be okay.

  13. PhrankLee says:

    I absolutely love that every game is the most important game of the year!!

  14. N64 says:

    Jethro Tull: Meh.We, more than any other team,know that in this hockey era, you have to destroy your division.

    Then do very well against your conference.Then you just have to nibble at the soft underbelly of the East.Blam!Playoffs.

    LOL, a little glib I know, but my point is now there’s other teams and their fans now making lists like your fine one and not looking forward to playing the Oilers. Some teams used to get two or three 5 day breaks a year, depending on when they played us.

    7 points out of these 7 games would be fantastic. Including some regulation wins against the Sharks and Ducks would be extra profitable. (By the way the .389 is our average against the top 15 this year and these are all top 15 teams)

  15. bbf_iii says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!: This post kind of read my mind from wrap-up of last one

    – I’m of the view that trade deadline won’t have many meaningful trades, given the Vegas draft.

    – If Davidson is traded for new D: the new team is likely to protect him, and we now protect 4 D

    – I hope I’m wrong, because trades are fun..

    I don’t think the Oilers trading Davidson for a rental D means they now protect 4D in the expansion. I think the idea is that they assume they lose Davidson in the expansion draft anyway, so might as well use him to get a temporary upgrade for the playoffs. If it’s Shattenkirk, they trade for him not planning on protecting him.

  16. jm363561 says:

    N64: Would be extremely delighted to get seven points out of the next seven games.

    Long steep 7 game climb ahead. The over/under would be 5½ pts based on our .389 against the top 15:

    9th Anaheim .620
    8th San Jose .640
    3rd Minnesota .720
    13th Nashville .555
    15th Carolina .535
    5th Montreal .655
    6th Chicago .655

    As of January 19:
    vs. playoff teams: 10-11-4
    vs. non-playoff teams: 15-4-3

    Anything above 7 points would be really good.

  17. N64 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: For every smaller sample size stat like points pct vs top teams there is also one like their record vs. Central Division, etc

    top 15 is half of the league. in the bettman point era being in every game moves you out of the bottom tier. i *suspect* beating top teams correlates to moving out of the middle pack.

  18. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    jm363561:
    There have been numerous comments over the years that it invariably takes D men time to settle into a new system, most recently when discussing Sekera and Larsson. Why would you go out and rent one for a few weeks (unless they are called Justin)?

    If Bobby McKenzie is right and Shattenkirk is reconsidering his desire to play near NY, and you think you can sign him then you do it because he is a good fit. That’s why.

    Davidson is a great story but if the price is him plus a late 1st in a weak draft to get Shatty for this playoff run in a year the West is bad and the team could go all the way to the SCF if the chips fall right (if they can avoid Minny/Chicago by not falling into the Wild Card), plus you can re-sign him, you do it.

    Protect Nuge, Eberle, Leon, Lucic / Sekera, Klef, Larsson, Shatty

    Lose one of: Maroon, Khaira, Kassian, Reinhart (every team will lose someone decent…no way around it).

    Clear out Pouliot and Hendricks for cap room to help pay for Shattenkirk’s new deal.

    Sekera-Shattenkirk
    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning

    Yes please.
    It also shows McDavid this team is serious about winning, both in the future and right now. Makes re-signing him to a team-friendly deal easier if he sees the team is going for it.

    If 1st + Davey gets it done and Bobby McK is right about this, I do it and I don’t think twice.

  19. N64 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: If Bobby McKenzie is right and Shattenkirk is reconsidering his desire to play near NY, and you think you can sign him then you do it because he is a good fit. That’s why.

    Though Bobby Mac was only referring to short term interest in WC?

  20. marchmentsknee says:

    Regarding Montour, I’m not sure a division rival will trade their best prospect to the McOilers.

    This is a major development year and I don’t see Chia trading away any major players at the deadline. If the Oil keep a similar place and finish 90-100pts what are next season’s expectations if there’s no player turnover? Are we expecting to challenge for the Stanley just by getting older? This core could compete for years if we keep them together.

  21. Woodguy says:

    The biggest need is 3C imo.

    27-36-42 have only played 52 minutes together, but are scoring at a dismal 1.12 GF/60

    Oilers score 1.44/60 with Caggulia on the ice, and that’s the worst on the team:

    MCDAVID, CONNOR 3.06
    MAROON, PATRICK 2.95
    KASSIAN, ZACK 2.83
    LANDER, ANTON 2.81
    DRAISAITL, LEON 2.67
    PITLICK, TYLER 2.62
    LETESTU, MARK 2.41
    PULJUJARVI, JESSE 2.29
    EBERLE, JORDAN 2.21
    LUCIC, MILAN 2.08
    POULIOT, BENOIT 1.94
    HENDRICKS, MATT 1.91
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 1.71
    SLEPYSHEV, ANTON 1.58
    CAGGIULA, DRAKE 1.44

    He is not a NHLer at this time and if he was making his NHL salary while on the Non-Roster IR, then he should go down to the AHL.

    At the very least rotate Lander in there and see what he can do.

    Btw:

    Oilers score 2.18 GF/60 when Sleppy is away from The Drake and 0.67 when he’s with The Drake.

    I don’t hate The Drake, but he’s not a NHLer today.

  22. Bruce Wayne says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!: This post kind of read my mind from wrap-up of last one

    – I’m of the view that trade deadline won’t have many meaningful trades, given the Vegas draft.

    – If Davidson is traded for new D: the new team is likely to protect him, and we now protect 4 D

    – I hope I’m wrong, because trades are fun..

    St. Louis doesn’t have three defenders worth protecting right now, so there is no downside to them acquiring Davidson in terms of the expansion draft.

    You are right however that a Davidson + draft pick for Shattenkirk deal either means protecting 4 D and losing a good forward (Maroon) or letting Shattenkirk go.

    But I’m not sure the expansion draft will make the trade deadline less liquid, on balance.

  23. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    N64: top 15 is half of the league. in the bettman point era being in every game moves you out of the bottom tire. i *suspect* beating top teams is what moves you out of the pack in the middle.

    No need to be snide about it I think *most* people here can divide 15/30. “Past performance is not a guarantee of future results” is another canned comment I can direct back. We both have opinions, and are entitled to offer disagreeing ones. 🙂 Posting a points percentage stat does not make your opinion more valid than mine, just like mine is no more valid than yours.

  24. russ99 says:

    jm363561:
    There have been numerous comments over the years that it invariably takes D men time to settle into a new system, most recently when discussing Sekera and Larsson. Why would you go out and rent one for a few weeks (unless they are called Justin, or Jeff).

    Agreed, a D trade could be disruptive, especially someone that is weak on the defensive side, messing with our defensive balance, and putting more pressure on Talbot.

    Defense wins in the playoffs, and other than the game changing talent of McDavid and to a lesser extent Talbot, better team defense is behind our improvement.

    Do we really want to mess with that just to have a prettier offense or a better point shot?

  25. N64 says:

    Bruce Wayne: But I’m not sure the expansion draft will make the trade deadline less liquid, on balance.

    Values of players right at the protection boundary will be depressed. The GM code seems to be to get full discount on a forced trade and walk away from win wins. If so those players won’t be very liquid.

  26. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree with you that 3C is a need. Ironic because the Oilers have McDavid-Leon-Nuge.

  27. N64 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: No need to be snide about it I think *most* people here can divide 15/30.

    Did not mean to come across harshly. Your specific counter example was to a division i.e. 1/4. Also wanted to explain why I think performance against top 15 is an interesting progress bar. Apologies and cheers!

  28. Chachi says:

    N64: Would be extremely delighted to get seven points out of the next seven games.

    Long steep 7 game climb ahead. The over/under would be 5½ pts based on our .389 against the top 15:

    9th Anaheim .620
    8th San Jose .640
    3rd Minnesota .720
    13th Nashville .555
    15th Carolina .535
    5th Montreal .655
    6th Chicago .655

    Oilers record so far against:
    Anaheim 1-1-0
    San Jose 0-1-1
    Minnesota 0-0-2
    Nashville 0-0-1
    Carolina 1-0-0
    Montreal NA
    Chicago 1-0-0

    That is a record of 3-2-4 for a total of 10 points in 9 games against these teams so far. 7 points would be a reasonable number against these teams.

  29. Bruce Wayne says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: If Bobby McKenzie is right and Shattenkirk is reconsidering his desire to play near NY, and you think you can sign him then you do it because he is a good fit. That’s why.

    Davidson is a great story but if the price is him plus a late 1st in a weak draft to get Shatty for this playoff run in a year the West is bad and the team could go all the way to the SCF if the chips fall right (if they can avoid Minny/Chicago by not falling into the Wild Card), plus you can re-sign him, you do it.

    Protect Nuge, Eberle, Leon, Lucic / Sekera, Klef, Larsson, Shatty

    Lose one of: Maroon, Khaira, Kassian, Reinhart (every team will lose someone decent…no way around it).

    Clear out Pouliot and Hendricks for cap room to help pay for Shattenkirk’s new deal.

    Sekera-Shattenkirk
    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning

    Yes please.
    It also shows McDavid this team is serious about winning, both in the future and right now. Makes re-signing him to a team-friendly deal easier if he sees the team is going for it.

    If 1st + Davey gets it done and Bobby McK is right about this, I do it and I don’t think twice.

    I would consider this as well. It is even better if the rumour that Shattenkirk would sign a short term deal to wait until the Rangers cleared cap space.

    If he keeps playing well you could easily trade Maroon before the expansion draft to recoup some of the cost, and then you lose Kassian or someone in the expansion draft. Add it all up and it looks like this long term

    Davidson, 1st round pick, Maroon, Kassian for Shattenkirk + high second round pick or low first round pick.

    The picks almost cancel out, and someone like Kassian was gone anyway in the expansion draft, so that becomes Davidson + one year of Maroon before contract time for Shattenkirk. That’s a great deal.

  30. bbf_iii says:

    Bruce Wayne: St. Louis doesn’t have three defenders worth protecting right now, so there is no downside to them acquiring Davidson in terms of the expansion draft.

    You are right however that a Davidson + draft pick for Shattenkirk deal either means protecting 4 D and losing a good forward (Maroon) or letting Shattenkirk go.

    But I’m not sure the expansion draft will make the trade deadline less liquid, on balance.

    I think they definitely let Shattenkirk go. Also, in relation to your first point, St. Louis is helped greatly by Parayko being expansion draft exempt.

  31. N64 says:

    Chachi: Oilers record so far against:
    Anaheim 1-1-0
    San Jose0-1-1
    Minnesota0-0-2
    Nashville0-0-1
    Carolina 1-0-0
    MontrealNA
    Chicago1-0-0

    That isa record of 3-2-4 for a total of 10 points in 9 games against these teams so far. 7 points would be a reasonable number against these teams.

    Yes. That highlights the variability of samples. Agree that 7 in 7 would be good.

  32. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    N64: Though Bobby Mac was only referring to short term interest in WC?

    At the risk of upsetting LT, but since the comments were on a video and are a week old, here is the quote: (and nothing is firm about time frame but there is nothing saying just short-term for these playoffs, or long-term, for that matter). Unless I missed something else, which is possible.

    “Shattenkirk is an interesting name because we know last summer that he and the Edmonton Oilers had permission to talk to each other at that time. But he basically did not look favorably on going to Edmonton and signing a long-term deal there, so that one was shelved at the time. But because the Blues aren’t as good, and because he’s on an expiring contract situation, our Frank Seravalli is reporting the sense seems to be out there that Shattenkirk might look more favorably on a lot of different options – perhaps including the Edmonton one.”

  33. Woodguy says:

    WC standings this morning using games. 8th place set to 0. Tie-break given to better pts% (games in hand)

    MIN 17
    CHI 14
    SJS 11
    ANA 10
    EDM 9
    NSH 4
    STL 2
    LAK 0
    —————–
    VAN 0
    CGY 0
    WPG -3
    DAL -3
    ARI -14
    COL -18

    VAN lost last night in reg so back to a 3 way tie for last spot

    NSH has now won 7 in a row, including 5 straight on the road.

    I mentioned 2 days ago I put long $ on them at +1600 to win the WC and +3300 to win The Cup

    This morning they are down to: +1400 to win the WC and +2500 to win The Cup.

    Bet it while there is still value.

    WC games tonight:

    LAK at NYR
    CGY at TOR
    ANA at WPG
    SJS at COL
    FLA at ARI

    Go Home Teams!!

    *clap,clap*

  34. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    N64: Did not mean to come across harshly. Your specific counter example was to a division i.e. 1/4. Also wanted to explain why I think performance against top 15 is an interesting progress bar. Apologies and cheers!

    Ah. Understood. My apologies as well. Sometimes hard to decipher intent in text. And I fully agree that the step to becoming a great team is beating good teams.

    Right now I would say Edmonton is a good team (I like to think to go from awful to great you have to pass through good.)

    Bad teams: lose to all
    Middling teams: Beat most bad teams, occassionally steal a point or two from good teams, lose to great teams.
    Good teams: Beat bad teams consistently, beat middling teams most of the time, 50-50 vs. good teams, lose to great teams and occasionally steal one.
    Great teams: Beat bad teams and middling teams consistently, beat good teams most of the time, 50-50 vs. other great teams.

    Oilers are rising up from bad team last year and have risen to top of the middle pack quickly. They are moving into good territory and their way through is to get to 50-50 vs., say teams ranked 8-16. Since Oilers are right around 8th in the standings, a way to look at that would be to see their record vs. the 8 or 9 teama below them.

    Agree they have more work to do to get to the top of the good pile and aim for great.

  35. Oddspell says:

    With regards to acquiring PA Parenteau, I was under the impression you could not trade a player you had picked up on waivers until the following year. Is there a game threshold or some sort of CBA trickery I’m unaware of?

  36. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Woodguy,

    I agree with you that 3C is a need. Ironic because the Oilers have McDavid-Leon-Nuge.

    Here’s something to chew on:

    27-29 together get a reasonable 2.37 GF/60

    97 with 29 get 3.16
    97 without 29 get 3.01

    Not a big loss for 97 is 29 is swapped out (I guess for 42 or 54 hahaha, yeah McLellan will do that…)

    Then run:

    19-97-42/54
    67-93-14
    27-29-42/54
    23/51-55-44

    54 played well with 93-14 last year, I bet he’s be OK with 97 as well.

    If McLellan wants to play the 4th line more than 5 min, then he needs 29 in the top 6 or else he won’t get enough TOI.

    Lots of options and decisions.

  37. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: If Bobby McKenzie is right and Shattenkirk is reconsidering his desire to play near NY, and you think you can sign him then you do it because he is a good fit. That’s why.

    Davidson is a great story but if the price is him plus a late 1st in a weak draft to get Shatty for this playoff run in a year the West is bad and the team could go all the way to the SCF if the chips fall right (if they can avoid Minny/Chicago by not falling into the Wild Card), plus you can re-sign him, you do it.

    Protect Nuge, Eberle, Leon, Lucic / Sekera, Klef, Larsson, Shatty

    Lose one of: Maroon, Khaira, Kassian, Reinhart (every team will lose someone decent…no way around it).

    Clear out Pouliot and Hendricks for cap room to help pay for Shattenkirk’s new deal.

    Sekera-Shattenkirk
    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning

    Yes please.
    It also shows McDavid this team is serious about winning, both in the future and right now. Makes re-signing him to a team-friendly deal easier if he sees the team is going for it.

    If 1st + Davey gets it done and Bobby McK is right about this, I do it and I don’t think twice.

    I wouldn’t t do 1st + Davidson for Shattenkirk. That’s way too much for a rental. Then again, I have zero interest in signing him long term because the cost can easily be $6.5 over seven. I would much rather have Barrie, who might cost a little more in assets but has a more reasonable salary.

  38. John Chambers says:

    Bizarre that San Jose has a home-and-home with Colorado, and soon Oilers also have a home n home with the Avs.

    Neither team is particularly close geographically nor do the teams play in the same div.

    As a side note I always thought a good travel-reducing idea for the NHL would be to have a visiting team play twice in an opponents barn over a weekend, similar to how they do with CIS hockey. The implication for teams playing within conference is that you’d only travel to a rival’s city once a year while playing two road games against them. Builds an entertaining rivalry over a feisty weekend too.

  39. stephen sheps says:

    Dallas Stars: R Ales Hemsky is out long term, I would love to see him back here for another playoff run.

    I kinda love the idea of Hemsky coming back for one last victory lap, but does Dallas do that trade, especially since the trade rumours have reported Sharp going back to Chicago. I doubt Hemsky is in their long term plans, but they can’t consider trading both Sharp and Hemmer, can they?

    If Hemmer does come back, I wonder how the conversation with Benning w.r.t. #83 would go?

  40. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy,

    27-29-54?! That line would be a behemoth!
    I like the look of your lineup but I could see them going out and getting Vrbata to run with 97 in your scenario–that veteran right shot who has played with cerebral playmakers (Sedins) before and knows where to go to get open and get a good shot. He just showed us the other night on the PP. Went to the open ice, not where the puck was, and got rewarded. Think he would be a great fit, like others have said.

    Maroon-CMD-Vrbata
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepy/Khaira
    Hendricks/Lander-Letestu-Kassian

    Looks pretty darn solid to me.

  41. N64 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: At the risk of upsetting LT, but since the comments were on a video and are a week old, here is the quote: (and nothing is firm about time frame but there is nothing saying just short-term for these playoffs, or long-term, for that matter). Unless I missed something else, which is possible.

    “Shattenkirk is an interesting name because we know last summer that he and the Edmonton Oilers had permission to talk to each other at that time. But he basically did not look favorably on going to Edmonton and signing a long-term deal there, so that one was shelved at the time. But because the Blues aren’t as good, and because he’s on an expiring contract situation, our Frank Seravalli is reporting the sense seems to be out there that Shattenkirk might look more favorably on a lot of different options – perhaps including the Edmonton one.”

    Got my wires crossed. Was actually recalling Friedman on Shattenkirk being short term.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-canadian-team-land-kevin-shattenkirk/

    Seravelli had some thoughts as well.
    .
    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/all-kinds-of-buzz-but-does-kevin-shattenkirk-of-st-louis-blues-really-make-sense-for-edmonton-oilers

    Would only pay rental prices without an extension. Anything above that should be conditional

  42. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    JimmyV1965: I wouldn’t t do 1st + Davidson for Shattenkirk.That’s way too much for a rental. Then again, I have zero interest in signing him long term because the cost can easily be $6.5 over seven. I would much rather have Barrie, who might cost a little more in assets but has a more reasonable salary.

    The scenario was a conditional first, and only if Shattenkirk was sincerely willing to come here with an open mind about re-signing if he likes the city/rink/dishing to McDavid.

    I think I prefer Shattenkirk to Barrie quite easily. Your mileage may vary.

  43. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    N64,

    Thanks. Agree that the 1st should be conditional on re-signing.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Oddspell:
    With regards to acquiring PA Parenteau, I was under the impression you could not trade a player you had picked up on waivers until the following year. Is there a game threshold or some sort of CBA trickery I’m unaware of?

    Yessir, but there’s a way:

    13.20 (b) – A Player who has been acquired by Waiver claim shall not be Traded to another Club until the termination of Playoffs of the season in which he was acquired unless he is first offered on the same terms to the Club(s) that entered a claim when Waivers were requested originally and the offer has been refused.

    So in order for NJD to trade PAP, they first need to offer him up to any other team that put a claim in on him.

    I am not sure exactly what “offered on the same terms” means.

    I think it means they have to give them a chance to match whatever deal NJD has cooking.

    If no one else put in a claim they are clear to trade.

  45. N64 says:

    John Chambers: As a side note I always thought a good travel-reducing idea for the NHL would be to have a visiting team play twice in an opponents barn over a weekend, similar to how they do with CIS hockey. The implication for teams playing within conference is that you’d only travel to a rival’s city once a year while playing two road games against them. Builds an entertaining rivalry over a feisty weekend too.

    Anyone recall if the modern NHL has ever scheduled consecutive games with same 2 teams in same city?

  46. LMHF#1 says:

    Going down the stretch and to the playoffs, it would be a huge benefit to be able to roll 4 lines.

    Hanzal and Jagr. Dream big.

    I’d say Hemsky because he’s perfect both as a 5on5 and RH on the powerplay, but believe he’s out for the year.

  47. John Chambers says:

    N64: Anyone recall if the modern NHL has ever scheduled consecutive games with same 2 teams in same city?

    This past December Winnipeg played two consecutive games in Vancouver.

    Of course there were many Jets fans who parlayed into a pre-Christmas ski trip.

  48. Cooldude says:

    I don’t think we need a new RW, Puljujärvi is NHL ready now! And with Puljujärvi on RW we can move Draistaitl back to center.

  49. Jaxon says:

    I’d remove Bear and Slepyshev from the list. Bear has great upside potential. His playoff performance last season was amazing (22pts in 18 games!!). Slepyshev has looked better every game. Speed and some edge to his game. He was quite the sniper in junior age hockey and a former KHL 1st overall. If he rediscovers some scoring at the NHL level he could be a huge, cheap asset.

    I would also be very averse to giving up 1st round picks for most of the names floating around in rumours unless it’s a Trouba like player. Those 1st rounders and their cheap 3 year entry level contracts may be necessary once the top players (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, etc) get new contracts.

    I would add Simpson, Vesel and Oesterle to the asset list.

  50. Jaxon says:

    How could they get some rental players AND Kyle Wood out of Arizona? What assets would Arizona require to let Wood go? That’s what I want to see.

    They have Stone, Vrbata, Hanzal and Doan who would all be interesting rentals with the hopes that Stone could be re-signed in the summer. But Wood is the prize they should be looking at. I’m sure Arizona isn’t keen on giving him up. But he’s just going to get more expensive as he gets closer to the NHL.

  51. speeds says:

    LT: What about both moving and shaking?

    What about trading a guy like Russell out to create the currency to add other, different players?

  52. SoCaloil says:

    Anaheim will either loose a D or Silfverberg to the expansion draft
    If they loose a D, they backfill with Montour.
    I don’t see them letting Montour go…unless
    They get a 1L in return that fits with Getz. A piece the oil does not have.

  53. magneto says:

    Carolina has room to protect another D and maybe not enough room to protect all of their young forwards.

    Would Davidson (or Reinhart)+1st get you in the door for Elias Lindholm?
    6’1″ RHC that has back to back 39 pt seasons.
    Would you do Davidson+Caggiula for Lindholm and a lesser prospect? Cost savings for Carolina and means they would lose a lesser player in expansion.

    Oilers leave a Russell extension until after the expansion (and he wants to stay in Edmonton) and the Oil still go 7-3-1 for protection.

  54. Glass says:

    I think we really only need a RW rental, and Vrbata makes the most sense. What does he go for, a 3rd? I would keep Slepyshev, I think the guy has potential, we have another cheap year of him. If Pitlick is either not ready or needs time in the AHL, you have Slepyshev in his place. Then you have Puljujari, who at least gets a good long look with both McDavid & Draisaitl lines next season.

    Maroon/McDavid/Vrbata
    Pouliot/Nuge/Eberle
    Lucic/Draisaitl/Slepyshev
    Khaira/Letestu/Kassian

  55. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Jaxon,

    I watch Wood play here in Tucson. Nice boxcars and size but he lacks footspeed…sound familiar? I see that being an issue at the next level, whereas guys like DeAngelo (when he is focused–he has issues with effort and mentally checking out), Honka, etc. not only have the playmaking but they are great skaters.

    I don’t understand your infatuation with KW. And like you say, why would Arizona, a rebuilding team, trade away a D prospect? Pipe dream, I think.

  56. Scungilli says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Woodguy,

    I agree with you that 3C is a need. Ironic because the Oilers have McDavid-Leon-Nuge.

    That is a talented group but 2 of those guys are pretty green. I think you can go three good experienced centres and younger wingers, for the playoffs I am not sure the young centres take you deep. Especially with a weakness in the back end.

    A good points percentage in the reg season will get you in the playoffs even if you lose more of the hard games. The ability in the regular season to hold your own against anybody means you have the strength to have a playoff run.

  57. slopitch says:

    Back after a week of work in London. LT, my days just aren’t the same having to wait till 3:30pm to get my morning Lowetide article. So in some ways, glad to be back.

    I really like targeting Silfverberg and Hanzal. Depth up front is a real thing. I remember in 2006 when we acquired Samsonov thinking we had too many forwards. There is no such thing in a playoff run. And depth at any position is an advantage.

    Shattenkirk Im not a huge fan of – Id have to dive into the numbers more but isnt he sheltered on STL? Sheltered and ufa is a bad combo. He’d be a decent replacement for Russell but overall Id almost rather buy low on Stone.

  58. magneto says:

    slopitch:
    Back after a week of work in London. LT, my days just aren’t the same having to wait till 3:30pm to get my morning Lowetide article. So in some ways, glad to be back.

    I really like targeting Silfverberg and Hanzal. Depth up front is a real thing. I remember in 2006 when we acquired Samsonov thinking we had too many forwards. There is no such thing in a playoff run. And depth at any position is an advantage.

    Shattenkirk Im not a huge fan of – Id have to dive into the numbers more but isnt he sheltered on STL? Sheltered and ufa is a bad combo. He’d be a decent replacement for Russell but overall Id almost rather buy low on Stone.

    I like the idea of buying low on Stone, you wish Arz didn’t pay him 4m. That is tough to live up to, and you wonder if there is a Schultz type expectation on him to produce and it hurt his confidence.

    What would that trade look like? Arz wants a young forward for Hanzel/Vrbata, would the cap difference make Davidson straight up a bad deal for Edmonton?

  59. Gino says:

    The Oilers will have 4 games to evaluate Brossoit. The recent Calgary game and 3 back to backs upcoming before the trade deadline. Jonas Gustavsson started 5 games the whole season and the Oilers have already made their decision on him. They have moved on Gustavsson already if you go to http://oilers.ice.nhl.com/club/roster.htm?type=prospect his name doesn’t even show up, the guy is in the nether world.
    If Brossoit continues to play in his next starts in the way he did against Calgary our backup needs are complete (jury is still out till then) but in my opinion they have to give him a chance to prove if he can do it. I’ve also noticed with the McDavid-Maroon-Draisaitl line a discontinuation of past success and poor zone exits. It might be time to switch Maroon with Lucic again as Lucic has awakened lately and Maroon seems kind of flat. I agree with WOODGUY the biggest need is the 3rd line C and the cost shouldn’t be higher than a 3rd round pick which we have 2 of this year. Also in my opinion we can survive moving on Russell and getting a 2nd round pick for him (but this won’t happen) as they seem to respect what he currently brings to the team. Top D without Russell (Sekera, Larsson, Klefbom, Benning, Davidson, Nurse (injured due back mid-March) Gryba, Fayne, Reinhart and Simpson.

  60. who says:

    Looks more and more like the oilers protect 7 3 1.
    Dmen protected. Sekera, Larsson, Klefbom
    Dmen exempt. Nurse, Benning
    UFA. Russell, Gryba
    Available. Davidson, Reinhart, fayne
    Right now the oilers depth on d is their biggest asset. But if they don’t resign their 2 UFA s and lose Davidson to expansion it takes a significant hit. If they trade Davidson and lose Reinhart to expansion they are down to 6 nhl dmen and the coach doesn’t want to play one of them.
    For this reason I hang on to Davidson. If you lose him to expansion it will save another player. This point seems to be forgotten by most people endorsing a trade. Don’t think Shattenkirk makes a big enough difference as a rental to give up the asset.

  61. magneto says:

    slopitch,

    Stone’s deal this year is a lot like Schultz’s last deal with EDM, 1yr 3.9m

    Schultz had a bad year, wasn’t qualified but resigned with PIT for 1.4Mx1yr

    Stone could see a similar situation, get traded at the deadline and resign for ~2 or 3m over 2 years

  62. slopitch says:

    magneto,

    Tough to say without hearing the conversations. ARZ is gonna lose some money this year. Saving 1.5m the rest of the year must have some value for them.

  63. Bag of Pucks says:

    Glass:
    I think we really only need a RW rental, and Vrbata makes the most sense. What does he go for, a 3rd? I would keep Slepyshev, I think the guy has potential, we have another cheap year of him. If Pitlick is either not ready or needs time in the AHL, you have Slepyshev in his place. Then you have Puljujari, who at least gets a good long look with both McDavid & Draisaitl lines next season.

    Maroon/McDavid/Vrbata
    Pouliot/Nuge/Eberle
    Lucic/Draisaitl/Slepyshev
    Khaira/Letestu/Kassian

    Agree. I think the more immediate need is RW and not 3C.

    A plug and play rental RW provides JP with more a development cushion and if you can slot the RW in alongside McDavid (who LT acknowledges can play with anyone), than it empowers the big move towards overall scoring depth which is Leon at 2C.

    If you’re a big RNH fan, this is likely not the way you build the team long-term as RNH as a $6mil 3C is likely not a tenable option. But that’s the reality of pro sports. Leon’s ascension as an offensive driver has to threaten someone’s spot on the roster, and I would suggest that 2C slot will be a very contentious roster spot this offseason.

    Long-term, you have to think the org. is projecting JP as 1RW and Leon as 2C. Where that leaves RNH in the mix is a very big question for Chiareli I’m sure.

  64. oscarmike says:

    SoCaloil:
    Anaheim will either loose a D or Silfverberg to the expansion draft
    If they loose a D, they backfill with Montour.
    I don’t see them letting Montour go…unless
    They get a 1L in return that fits with Getz.A piece the oil does not have.

    ANA will probably buy out Bieksa contract to protect 7-3-1.

  65. Ducey says:

    Any others? Agree with the list? Speak now or forever hold your peace.

    Not keen on trading any pick above a third.

    I think other chips could include

    Lagesson – is tracking well. Good size. Plays hard. Turns 21 next month. I bet someone has their eye on him.
    Yak 2 – he has size and some offense, and is a C. A team looking to rebuild may want to take him for a test drive next year
    Paigin – big defenders who can skate are always in vogue
    Nagelvoort – .917 in college. Could be the exchange if they trade for a backup.
    Dillon Simpson – he has to clear waivers next year, so Chia could want to move him.

  66. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:

    Woodguy says:

    January 23, 2017 at 9:30 am

    WC standings this morning using games. 8th place set to 0. Tie-break given to better pts% (games in hand)
    MIN 17
    CHI 14
    SJS 11
    ANA 10
    EDM 9
    NSH 4
    STL 2
    LAK 0
    —————–
    VAN 0
    CGY 0
    WPG -3
    DAL -3
    ARI -14
    COL -18

    the nice thing is top 3 pacific make playoffs.
    SJS 11
    ANA 10
    EDM 9 31gm left

    LAK 0 36gm left
    VAN 0 34 gm left
    CGY 0 31gm left

    if the oilers go 16-16-1 .500 the rest of the way.
    we get to 93 points.

    LAK needs to go 22-13-1 .625 to get to 93 points. A 103 pt season pace.
    VAN needs to go 21-12-1 .633 to get to 93 points. A 104 pt season pace
    CGY needs to go 20-10-3 .652 to get to 93 or 21-12-1 .652 to get to 94 points. A 107 pt season pace.

    Achieved in
    15-16 by DAL 109; STL 107; CHI 103; ANA 103
    14-15 by STL 109; ANA 109; NSH 104
    13-14 by ANA 116; COL 112; STL 111; SJS 111; CHI 107

    All three have to play like the one of the top 4 Teams in WC for the rest of the year.

  67. magneto says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Draisaitl has more value with McDavid than apart don’t you think? Where he plays determines where the need is, but I think him at RW solves more cap questions going forward.
    RNH is the defacto 2C and has been playing a lot better offensively lately, and takes more defensive responsibilities. Draisaitl becomes 1RW with Eberle hanging on until next offseason (McDavid extension), when Eberle is gone Puljujarvi becomes 2RW. Fill in the bottom wingers with cheaper guys like Khaira/Slepyshev/Pitlick/Caggiula until you can’t afford them

  68. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    Get a RW to move Drai back to centre, or a centre to keep him at RW.

    I’d like to see Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi honestly. Maybe Vrbata or Sharp in that spot instead.

    Think Lucic might be well served with a scoring centre, wonder about Bjugstad’s pricetag.

  69. Jethro Tull says:

    Russell for Versteeg?

    *Site explodes*

  70. Ducey says:

    Just noticed that each team has to expose 1 D who has played 40 games this year, or 70 over the last two, and has a contract next year.

    The Oilers only have two guys that fit that description right now that they might want to expose – Mark Fayne and Davidson.

    If they want to protect Davidson, they will need to keep Fayne.

  71. russ99 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Russell for Versteeg?

    *Site explodes*

    Lol.

    Versteeg has a limited NMC when he signed with Calgary, and you can bet Edmonton is one of the teams on the no trade list.

  72. N64 says:

    John Chambers: This past December Winnipeg played two consecutive games in Vancouver.

    Of course there were many Jets fans who parlayed into a pre-Christmas ski trip.

    Interesting. It would be a relief to the highest mileage teams to throw them some of that on their schedules. Double homes and/or double aways. Except double aways in Vegas might be too wearing.

  73. magneto says:

    Ducey,

    I don’t think they could trade Fayne for a 7th rounder right now, buyout period is before or after the expansion draft?

    Fayne only has one more year, and is having a good year in the AHL. I think they could trade him in the offseason for something equally unwanted.

  74. New Improved Darkness says:

    N64: top 15 is half of the league

    And that’s why it’s a useless split. You’re cutting the bell curve right down the center, where its value is high and its derivative is zero, then serving it up with a long, one-sided tail where the value is low and the derivative is high.

    Like chocolate and peanut butter to a dog with a peanut allergy. Like dividing the Canadian prairie into highlands and lowlands at the meridian that passes through Saskatoon (hint: 100% of the surveyors involved upgraded their theodolites with the magnetic compass option, because if the sun goes behind a cloud, they completely gap out on the “high” side).

    ———

    [*] If the cradle of humanity had been sunny Saskatoon, human history would have achieved non-Euclidean geometry a thousand years before first suspecting the earth was round. What? are you kidding? we’ve already found the rim on one side; the great prevailing mystery would be to measure the circumference of the mountain rim. Detailed measurements from Tycho Brahe’s great theodolite in the Sangre de Cristo would have Kepler desperately trying to fit an ellipse to the rim of a flat earth and enormously troubled by the implication that the earth—now modelled as a flat, elliptic disk—had a major elliptic diameter of over a million miles; what was God thinking to have made such a ludicrously large earthly creation?

    ———

    That’s enough lampooning, I hope, of the futility of slicing a bell cake with thick white icing along the flat, flat, flat top of the extreme middle.

    What makes sense statistically is to segregate out the top or bottom quartile. At the very worst, categorize good and bad teams after setting aside the buck-toothed middle quintile of March madness.

    Not all splits are created equal. Some are stillborn at birth.

    ———

    Does not resemble Saskatoon. The key thing here is to at least bite the head off the bat, before hauling out the poultry shears.

    Also funny if viewed upside down. Move over bell curve, what we have in Bettman’s NHL is actually a steeple curve.

    Or you can leave it right side up, and treat the bottom edge as the utility curve for drafting 1-8, 9-16, 17-24, 25-30 (if for some reason home ice advantage in the first round had an almost infinite upside—at $500/barrel, perhaps home ice in the round of sixteen becomes all seven games.)

    Implied number on the bat’s crest: sweet suck-it seventeen.

  75. Ducey says:

    magneto:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Draisaitl has more value with McDavid than apart don’t you think? Where he plays determines where the need is, but I think him at RW solves more cap questions going forward.
    RNH is the defacto 2C and has been playing a lot better offensively lately, and takes more defensive responsibilities. Draisaitl becomes 1RW with Eberle hanging on until next offseason (McDavid extension), when Eberle is gone Puljujarvi becomes 2RW. Fill in the bottom wingers with cheaper guys like Khaira/Slepyshev/Pitlick/Caggiula until you can’t afford them

    People get too excited about line combos.

    Leon will play sometimes with Connor, sometimes without.

    See Crosby/Malkin, Benn/ Seguin, Toews/ Kane, etc.

    The key is to give the coach as flexibility as possible. That likely involves getting a 3C, as Letestu can move to wing when they want Leon at C.

  76. --hudson-- says:

    Funny that the ‘needs’ list this year is less than the 2006 version.

  77. N64 says:

    New Improved Darkness: And that’s why it’s a useless split. You’re cutting the bell curve right down the center, where its value is high and its derivative is zero, then serving it up with a long, one-sided tail where the value is low and the derivative is high.

    Guilty as charged. Monthly I’ve been splitting into 3 cohorts (.500-.599 being the middle group). Only broke out the top half because the next 7 games were against the top half. lol.

    e.g.

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/01/01/new-day-dawning/#comment-598036

  78. magneto says:

    Ducey: People get too excited about line combos.

    Leon will play sometimes with Connor, sometimes without.

    See Crosby/Malkin, Benn/ Seguin, Toews/ Kane, etc.

    The key is to give the coach as flexibility as possible. That likely involves getting a 3C, as Letestu can move to wing when they want Leon at C.

    Totally, I think a better C than Caggiula is more important than a RW, this year and beyond. Draisaitl can be a 2C or 1RW, but 2W can’t be a 3C.

    Eberle is less important than RNH, same principle

  79. Bag of Pucks says:

    magneto:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Draisaitl has more value with McDavid than apart don’t you think? Where he plays determines where the need is, but I think him at RW solves more cap questions going forward.
    RNH is the defacto 2C and has been playing a lot better offensively lately, and takes more defensive responsibilities. Draisaitl becomes 1RW with Eberle hanging on until next offseason (McDavid extension), when Eberle is gone Puljujarvi becomes 2RW. Fill in the bottom wingers with cheaper guys like Khaira/Slepyshev/Pitlick/Caggiula until you can’t afford them

    Cs have a bigger impact on the game than Ws. Hence why clubs build down the middle.

    For that reason, I think the club is well served having the best possible player in the 2C spot behind McDavid, with the definition for ‘best’ being an offensive outscorer/line driver.

    RNH is playing better lately, but this team is far from an offensive juggernaut. I think their best option to achieve that is Connor and Leon each ‘driving’ a line.

    Leon is bigger than Nuge, is posting more points, and is already better on the dot than RNH. In short, he’s the better C, Unfortunately, he has to be played at RW because of current RW depth issues. That doesn’t mean it should be a longterm solution.

    Messier started out with the Oil on the LW. But eventually he took his rightful spot at C. The same will hold true for Draisaitl imo.

  80. Glass says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    We can run with the majority of what we have until 2018 off-season. By that time we’ll have a better idea of who makes better sense long-term, Nuge or Eberle. You probably package Nuge for a top 4 RHD or offload his salary for a more cost effective 3C + prospect or draft pick. We’d also need to offload Pouliot’s salary to make room for McDavid + Nurse’s contracts, so he either fetches a depth piece or picks.

    Heading into 2018-19
    Maroon/McDavid/Eberle
    Lucic/Draisaitl/Puljujarvi
    Caggulia/Unknown/Pitlick/Slepyshev
    Khaira/Letestu/Kassian

    Down the road, one of Pitlick/Slepyshev is expendable. Who knows if Pitlick regains his form? You probably package one of those for a 3C, and trade Nuge for a RHD. Will Benning be good enough at 2nd pairing, capable of filling if Larsson is injured? That will be taken into consideration. Caggulia is a more cost effective 3rd pairing LW, who knows, maybe Khaira takes the job by then. They are likely stop gaps for when Benson eventually makes the team.

  81. Bruce Wayne says:

    Ducey:
    Just noticed that each team has to expose 1 D who has played 40 games this year, or 70 over the last two, and has a contract next year.

    The Oilers only have two guys that fit that description right now that they might want to expose – Mark Fayne and Davidson.

    If they want to protect Davidson, they will need to keep Fayne.

    I don’t understand this comment. Fayne meets the requirements and will be exposed. Davidson doesn’t play into it at all.

  82. N64 says:

    Bruce Wayne: I don’t understand this comment.Fayne meets the requirements and will be exposed.Davidson doesn’t play into it at all.

    Unless they change it the expansion draft is in the middle of the buyout window. So no issue as per BW. Can expose him and buy him out.

    “The buyout period begins the later of June 15 or 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final ends. It concludes on June 30 at 5 pm EST.”

    Note: unlike goalers even qualified RFAs don’t count to the exposed quota. so definitely fayne or davidson. tough choice. 😉

  83. kinger_OIL says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – BoP says: “his team is far from an offensive juggernaut”

    – The Oil tied for 6th in GF. Maybe not juggernaut, but putting biscuit into basket is not the issue.

    – they are closer to being an offensive juggernaut than an average offensive team

  84. rickithebear says:

    Looking at our roster for Expansion draft.
    last 2/3 full seasons or games with oilers
    Protected Fwds 7:
    Lucic NMC (6@6M) 81gm 19G 49P
    Eberle (2@6M) 77gm 23G 55P
    RNH (4@6M) 69gm 18G 44P
    Draisatl (RFA) 81gm 23G 59P
    Maroon (1@1.5M) 80gm 32G 48P
    Kassian (RFA) 77gm 6G 22P; #3 PK forward in league.
    XXX

    Exempt:
    Mcdavid, Slepyshev, Caggulia, Puljujarvi,
    Benson, Chase, Platzer, Russell, Christopher

    Exposed?
    Pouliot (2@4M) 60gm 15G 31P
    Letestu (1@1.8M) 80gm 13G 30P
    Khaira (RFA); Lander (RFA); Beck (RFA); Yakimov (RFA); Moroz (RFA)

    Pitlick (UFA)

    Protected Defence:
    Sekera NMC (4@5.5M); top 30 HD/60 D this year.
    Larson (4@4.167M) top 30 HD/60 D last 2/3 of season
    Klefbom (6@4.167M) bottom 30 HD/60 D.

    Exempt:
    Nurse; Benning; Betker; Bear; Jones

    Exposed:
    Davidson (1@1.425M)
    Fayne (1@ 3.625)
    Reinhart (RFA)
    Simpson; Musil; Oesterle; Laleggia (RFA)

    Russel; Gryba; Ference; Fraser (UFA)

    Talbot Protected;

    Exempt:
    Ellis

    Exposed:
    Broisoit (1@.75M)
    Laurekainen (RFA)

    Gustavsson UFA

  85. Bag of Pucks says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Bag of Pucks,

    – BoP says: “his team is far from an offensive juggernaut”

    – The Oil tied for 6th in GF.Maybe not juggernaut, but putting biscuit into basket is not the issue.

    – they are closer to being an offensive juggernaut than an average offensive team

    Fully agree. This is why I was careful to select that precise term (juggernaut), as I think it conveys the potential path ahead (i.e. evolving from good to great).

    Team is pretty top heavy in terms of goal production. Is that a good thing or bad thing?

    Is it too late to trade the 2012 lottery ‘win’ (Yakupov) for the 2016 lottery ‘loss’ (Laine)?

  86. Melman says:

    John Chambers:
    Bizarre that San Jose has a home-and-home with Colorado, and soon Oilers also have a home n home with the Avs.

    Neither team is particularly close geographically nor do the teams play in the same div.

    As a side note I always thought a good travel-reducing idea for the NHL would be to have a visiting team play twice in an opponents barn over a weekend, similar to how they do with CIS hockey. The implication for teams playing within conference is that you’d only travel to a rival’s city once a year while playing two road games against them. Builds an entertaining rivalry over a feisty weekend too.

    I brought this up a couple weeks back. Win. played in Van on a Wed. then Friday and I think it’s a very good idea. It reduces travel for the players and builds up a little in season mini-match rivalry which can add some drama during a long season.

  87. Bag of Pucks says:

    Glass:
    Bag of Pucks,

    We can run with the majority of what we have until 2018 off-season. By that time we’ll have a better idea of who makes better sense long-term, Nuge or Eberle. You probably package Nuge for a top 4 RHD or offload his salary for a more cost effective 3C + prospect or draft pick. We’d also need to offload Pouliot’s salary to make room for McDavid + Nurse’s contracts, so he either fetches a depth piece or picks.

    Heading into 2018-19
    Maroon/McDavid/Eberle
    Lucic/Draisaitl/Puljujarvi
    Caggulia/Unknown/Pitlick/Slepyshev
    Khaira/Letestu/Kassian

    Down the road, one of Pitlick/Slepyshev is expendable. Who knows if Pitlick regains his form? You probably package one of those for a 3C, and trade Nuge for a RHD. Will Benning be good enough at 2nd pairing, capable of filling if Larsson is injured? That will be taken into consideration. Caggulia is a more cost effective 3rd pairing LW, who knows, maybe Khaira takes the job by then. They are likely stop gaps for when Benson eventually makes the team.

    Quite possible that a playoff appearance will help to answer some of these decisions as well. Who elevates their game in the second season? Who disappears quietly into the night?

    Those answers will likely have the biggest impact on whom Chiarelli keeps in his hand and who he discards.

  88. Profit says:

    As we move closer to the playoffs, I figured I’d share with you all my morning ritual.
    – Grab a seat at my desk.
    – Open up sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Edmonton
    – Look at the Oilers model for *if* they play .500 for the rest of the season, how many points would they have and what is the percentage chance will they get into the playoffs. The Oilers have hovered at around 85/86 points for most of the year, and had a chance of making the playoffs of between 65% and 85% fairly consistently.

    This morning it was:

    93 15- 15-3 99.3

    So that’s 93 points, with a record of 15-15-3 and a 99.3% shot at getting in. That’s the highest it’s ever been, in the history of me looking at the site (a long long time).

    For those who are saying we’ll take 7 points in 7 games up thread, I’d just chip in and say that if they do that, they Oilers are extraordinarily likely to make the playoffs.

    For what it is worth, the highest probability of a finish, based only on schedule/games to date is 100 18-11-4 100.0%

    I for one did not have 100 points in the Hunter Death March pool, but I sure am enjoying this ride.

  89. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy,

    Get a RW to move Drai back to centre, or a centre to keep him at RW.

    I’d like to see Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi honestly. Maybe Vrbata or Sharp in that spot instead.

    Think Lucic might be well served with a scoring centre, wonder about Bjugstad’s pricetag.

    Yeah, 97-98 scored at a ridiculous rate in a small sample, but McLellan puts super short lease on him

  90. Profit says:

    rickithebear,

    Yeah this is very similar to the analysis I was doing.

    Interestingly, Nashville making a run essentially does nothing to the Oilers playoff chances as they passed STL and now are in the Central and as such doesn’t impact the Oilers at all. They are now effectively an Eastern Conference team (until of course they drop 5 in a row, STL climbs up and makes the points needed for the last wild card spot higher).

    Losing to Anaheim or SJ impacts the Oilers rankings and chance to get into spot 1 and 2 in the Pacific but barely moves the needle on actual playoff chances.

  91. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy: Yeah, 97-98 scored at a ridiculous rate in a small sample, but McLellan puts super short lease on him

    am I reading this right, did McDavid score at 5.7 5v5 P/60 with Pulju? 8P in 84 minutes? Pulju half of that but still.

    Really think they will be good complements long term

  92. Ducey says:

    rickithebear,

    Thanks. That’s helpful as I have never sat down and figured it out.

    It seems possible that Vegas would skip Davidson. They only need 4 or 5 D and can get the rest as UFA’s. Is it likely there are 4 or 5 better D available than Davidson? Has anyone seen a recent credible mock?

    Maybe the Oilers can sign him to a long term contract. Perhaps that scares Vegas away.

  93. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Just for fun, I looked up Chicago’s record (overall 30-14-5, good for 4th overall at the moment by total points) against “Top 15” teams.

    I got 10-11-3.

    So they are 20-3-2 vs. the bottom 15 teams.

    Good teams beat up on bad teams and saw off against other good teams.

    Like I said earlier, in my opinion:

    Bad teams: lose to all

    Middling teams: Beat most bad teams, occasionally steal a point or two from good teams, lose to great teams.

    Good teams: Beat bad teams consistently, beat middling teams most of the time, 50-50 vs. other good teams, lose to great teams and occasionally steal one.

    Great teams: Beat bad teams and middling teams consistently, beat good teams most of the time, 50-50 vs. other great teams.

    P.S. Washington? 13-5-3 vs Top 15. In my books this year they are a great team. Chicago, top of the pile of the good teams.

    Oilers are a good team, but not at Chicago’s level yet and are far from Washington level at this time.

    Seem fair?

  94. npanciroli says:

    Was Chicago getting killed early in the year by shot metrics or am I imagining that?

    I thought Crawford was winning games for them.

    I thought their depth would kill them last year and this year but they keep pulling through somehow.

  95. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    npanciroli,

    Chicago did have a shaky start, yes. And only Panarin was producing. Kane has caught up now and Anisimov got going. Toews still struggling. The team is better now but not as good as in years past. Minny looks legit but otherwise the West looks wide open for the taking this year while the juggernauts are in the East.

    My two points are thus:
    1) This is a good year to go for it in the West–why settle for just getting in the dance? It’s a good year to try to go deep. Be buyers where it makes sense (i.e, going for rentals that will cost less, a la Vrbata).

    2) Don’t discount the Oilers because their record vs good teams is not good. Chicago’s is only middle of the pack– less than .500 vs. the top 15 and yet I think most fans would say they are ahead of the Oilers at this stage. The Oilers are gaining on Chicago and I bet by next year at this time they will be even with the Blackhawks.

  96. npanciroli says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Agree completely. I was thinking earlier how now is the time were we can run really good center depth internally for cheap since Drai and McDavid still on entry level.

    Wingers generally cheaper than centers also. (Vrbata versus Hanzal).

  97. russ99 says:

    rickithebear,

    Letestu probably would be the expansion pick if the Oilers trade Davidson.

    Vegas is not picking up other team’s salary problems in the expansion draft.

  98. russ99 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    npanciroli,

    Chicago did have a shaky start, yes. And only Panarin was producing. Kane has caught up now and Anisimov got going. Toews still struggling. The team is better now but not as good as in years past. Minny looks legit but otherwise the West looks wide open for the taking this year while the juggernauts are in the East.

    My two points are thus:
    1) This is a good year to go for it in the West–why settle for just getting in the dance? It’s a good year to try to go deep. Be buyers where it makes sense (i.e, going for rentals that will cost less, a la Vrbata).

    2) Don’t discount the Oilers because their record vs good teams is not good. Chicago’s is only middle of the pack– less than .500 vs. the top 15 and yet I think most fans would say they are ahead of the Oilers at this stage. The Oilers are gaining on Chicago and I bet by next year at this time they will be even with the Blackhawks.

    This is not a good idea.

    We haven’t played a single road playoff game vs. Pacific opponents so we don’t know how the team will perform. That’s really what this season is about, finding that out, getting that experience.

    Considering our reliance on overtime to generate offense vs. physical/trap teams, probably not well.

    This week’s games will be a good test of that.

  99. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    russ99: This is not a good idea.

    We haven’t played a single road playoff game vs. Pacific opponents so we don’t know how the team will perform. That’s really what this season is about, finding that out, getting that experience.

    Considering our reliance on overtime to generate offense vs. physical/trap teams, probably not well.

    This week’s games will be a good test of that.

    Respectfully, I disagree with the assessment that this season is about finding out how the team will perform. The goal is not experimentation, it is building the best team for both the future and the present, getting McDavid and co. true and meaningful playoff experience. I am not advocating for selling the farm. But if a mid-round pick and redundant prospect (e.g. Musil) gets you a good rental, I would be fine with that. You want to find out what this team is made of? Why not give them a fighting chance to get into the 2nd round or deeper. Why stop at just making the playoffs?

    Shuffle the deck if you have to. Get a 3rd for Hendricks, ship out a 3rd and Musil for Vrbata.

    Trade becomes Hendricks and Musil for Vrbata.

    Normally I agree with you, Russ, but on this one I disagree.

  100. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    http://buffalonews.com/2017/01/17/mike-harrington-sabres-getting-left-dust-leafs-rebuild/

    “have the horses and you let them run.”
    P.S. Oilers’ fans can empathize. Remember the “Flames rebuild ahead of the Oilers” stuff…

  101. kinger_OIL says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    – I agree. Chia won’t “slow-play” : if he can make some moves that he thinks makes us a Cup team team, he will pull trigger(s).

    – For the record, I’ve said for weeks that this team “could” be a Cup team now: we aren’t far off…

    – I just think this year is harder because of Vegas draft to make big moves, but what do I know

  102. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: 1) This is a good year to go for it in the West–why settle for just getting in the dance? It’s a good year to try to go deep.

    Chia has to be at least thinking about this.

    Some of what we are is obscured by the horrific injury season last year. The improvement looks greater from year-to-year than what it really is and I think the size of the improvement makes some people reticent to go for it this year.

    If we were sneaking in as a wild card team I’d agree. But right now we have a very real chance to host a first round series.

    I think a couple astute deals are called for.

    I also think the “buyer/seller” dichotomy is false. Likely it will be a bit of both.

  103. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Remember the “Flames rebuild ahead of the Oilers” stuff…

    Yeah…. whatever happened to that?
    😉

  104. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    spoiler:
    I also think the “buyer/seller” dichotomy is false.Likely it will be a bit of both.

    Spot on.

  105. Georges says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Just for fun, I looked up Chicago’s record (overall 30-14-5, good for 4th overall at the moment by total points) against “Top 15” teams.

    I got 10-11-3.

    So they are 20-3-2 vs. the bottom 15 teams.

    Good teams beat up on bad teams and saw off against other good teams.

    Like I said earlier, in my opinion:

    Bad teams: lose to all

    Middling teams: Beat most bad teams, occasionally steal a point or two from good teams, lose to great teams.

    Good teams: Beat bad teams consistently, beat middling teams most of the time, 50-50 vs. other good teams, lose to great teams and occasionally steal one.

    Great teams: Beat bad teams and middling teams consistently, beat good teams most of the time, 50-50 vs. other great teams.

    P.S. Washington? 13-5-3 vs Top 15. In my books this year they are a great team. Chicago, top of the pile of the good teams.

    Oilers are a good team, but not at Chicago’s level yet and are far from Washington level at this time.

    Seem fair?

    I think the great teams can be expected to perform the same against other tiers and have weaker results when playing themselves. Similarly, bad teams can be expected to perform the same against other tiers and have stronger results when playing themselves. Great and bad teams own whatever makes them great or bad; that quality isn’t affected by who they’re playing, unless they play a team that’s in their tier.

    The good and middling teams are going to be the groups with results that are the most responsive to who they’re playing. Their results will get better as the quality of their opponent gets worse. The difference between good and middling teams is that the good teams will have better results across the tiers.

  106. russ99 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Respectfully, I disagree with the assessment that this season is about finding out how the team will perform. The goal is not experimentation, it is building the best team for both the future and the present, getting McDavid and co. true and meaningful playoff experience. I am not advocating for selling the farm. But if a mid-round pick and redundant prospect (e.g. Musil) gets you a good rental, I would be fine with that. You want to find out what this team is made of? Why not give them a fighting chance to get into the 2nd round or deeper. Why stop at just making the playoffs?

    Shuffle the deck if you have to. Get a 3rd for Hendricks, ship out a 3rd and Musil for Vrbata.

    Trade becomes Hendricks and Musil for Vrbata.

    Normally I agree with you, Russ, but on this one I disagree.

    I understand, I ‘d be willing to do that as well, but I don’t want to see young assets like Slepyshev or the 1st rounder moved for chasing a Cup.

    Maybe it’s the 10 years of losing, but while I’m happy where we are (and especially the win in Calgary) I feel like expectations should be tempered a just a bit.

    The playoffs aren’t a sure thing, despite our nice lead, and our roster isn’t good enough to deal with an injury to a key player that lasts more than a few weeks.

    February’s schedule looks a bit nasty and IMO, we’ll need every point we have built up beforehand for that last 12 game stretch vs. Pacific trams fighting for a playoff spot or positioning. That will be like the playoffs before the playoffs, and this group hasn’t been through that either.

  107. rickithebear says:

    –hudson–:
    Funny that the ‘needs’ list this year is less than the 2006 version.

    1. A HD sh/60 Coach MacT

    2. Top 10 HD Save% Goalie.
    2006 1st pick and cond 3rd for Dwayne Roloson (top 10 HD save%)

    That is like getting griess or Elliot.

    3. 3+ top 60 HD dmen
    having 4 of the top 15 HD sh/60 Dmen in the game in 2006 sure helped.
    Pronger; #2 HD Dman; #69 EVP
    MAB; #12 HD Dman; #40 EVP
    Staios #14 HD Dman; #18 EVP
    Smith #15 HD Dman; #63 EVP
    Decent

    End of jan. K. lowe traded for a top10 HD D.
    Samelainen for
    Spacek #6 HD Dman; #18 EVP

    That is like getting Vlasic for Slepyshev.

    Cross & Rita for
    tarnstrom

    4. having Top 180 Even scoring depth helped.
    LW Torres #20 EVG; #100 EVP
    C Horcoff #31 EVP; #58 EVG
    C Stoll #61 EVP; #156 EVG
    LW Smyth #63 EVG; #91 EVP
    RW Hemsky #72 EVP; #142 EVG
    RW Pisani #95 EVG; #137 EVP
    Dvorak #153 EVP

    K. Lowe traded for Samsanov – Reasoner; Y. Stastny and 2nd round pick (Lucic)
    LW Samsanov #95 EVG; #137 EVP

    5. +ve Goal dif Special teams.
    Horcoff
    Stoll
    Moreau
    Pisani
    Peca

    ———————————————
    Horcoff 7G 19p
    Pisani 14G 18P
    Hemsky 6g 17P
    Smyth 7G 16P
    Samsanov 4g 15P
    Peca 6G 11P
    Torres 4G 11P
    Stoll 4g 10P
    ——————–
    Murray 0G 4P
    Moreau 2G 3P
    Winchester 1G 3P
    Harvey 1G 2p
    Dvorak 0G 2P

    Pronger 5G 21P
    Spacek 3G 14p
    Staios 1G 6P
    Smith 1G 5p
    MAB 2G 3P
    ——————
    tarnstrom 0G 2p
    Greene 0G 1A

  108. Scungilli says:

    Goal Diff and playoff success are often pretty in line. The Oilers are right in it in the West, however their goals against is on the high side, not a harbinger of a playoff killer.

    The Oilers might beat the Sharks or Ducks, but it would be a bigger miracle than 06 to get to the final past the Central winner this year.

    A low cost deal wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but it is wasting assets to think short term at this point. I think the East is very likely to win the cup again. The Wild don’t impress me, and they are the west’s best bet on paper. We’ll see if Jumbo has more gas in the tank than last year at a year older. Maybe he’ll go opposite and shave the beard for more speed and save energy in the playoffs.

  109. dustrock says:

    Sorry if this was already discussed, but here’s the results of Bob McKenzie asking coaches their gripes with this season, hard to argue with any of it:

    http://www.tsn.ca/coaches-sound-off-on-nhl-schedule-1.656418

    If we were to provide one response that typified the others, it would be this one: “My (expletive deleted) schedule bugs the (expletive deleted) out of me,” the coach said.

    “It’s a big problem and it’s getting worse,” one coach said.

    Other comments regarding officiating included: “it stinks”; “inconsistent and unacceptable”; “too much slashing and hooking not being called.”

    While officiating was technically second on the coaches’ hit list, myriad concerns with the coach’s challenge, on both goalie interference and offside, were notable.

    – Poor ice conditions.

    – Lack and hitting and physical play.

    – Dissatisfaction with current playoff format, with a desire to return to the one versus eight conference format.

    – Confusion on icing calls and dislike for hybrid icing.

    – Still too much diving/embellishment even though a fine system is in place.

    – NHL Player Safety needs to do a better job.

    – The game has become almost too fast: “I see a lack of hockey sense throughout the league. With the amount of talented, physical, fast specimens, who can skate and shoot, I don’t see as many cerebral, smart, well positioned, brave players as I should.”

    – Too much play in the neutral zone.

    – And last but not least, a plea for players to assume more responsibility to protect themselves “in the battle areas.

  110. Ducey says:

    Scungilli:
    Goal Diff and playoff success are often pretty in line. The Oilers are right in it in the West, however their goals against is on the high side, not a harbinger of a playoff killer.

    The Oilers might beat the Sharks or Ducks, but it would be a bigger miracle than 06 to get to the final past the Central winner this year.

    A low cost deal wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but it is wasting assets to think short term at this point. I think the East is very likely to win the cup again. The Wild don’t impress me, and they are the west’s best bet on paper. We’ll see if Jumbo has more gas in the tank than last year at a year older.Maybe he’ll go opposite and shave the beard for more speed and save energy in the playoffs.

    Yup. If your model is to make the finals like the ’06 team did, you need a new model. That team was an underdog all the way through.

  111. geowal says:

    Ethan Bear—RH defender with a big shot from the point.()

    I would think Bear would be virtually untouchable given his status as only signed RHD prospect (I think) not currently in NHL.

  112. Lowetide says:

    geowal:
    Ethan Bear—RH defender with a big shot from the point.()

    I would think Bear would be virtually untouchable given his status as only signed RHD prospect (I think) not currently in NHL.

    I think the Oilers may have to make him available because of it. These RH are so rare, I can see a scenario where Bear+ goes out for a RH who is farther along (Montour, etc).

  113. oscarmike says:

    Davidson for Dal 2017 2nd round pick. Dal can protect Davidson at the expansion draft over Hamius.

    Caleb Jones+2017 3rd pick for Boone Jenner.

    Mar-Mcd-Drai
    Drake-Nuge-Ebs
    Lucic-Jenner-Puljujarvi
    Pou-Letestu-Kass

    The future is to bright for the Oilers to trade away top picks for rentals.

    Teams that risk loosing good forwards at the expansion will buy-out their # 4 D. Oilers can sign Russell or not and a ok RHD short-term during the off season.

    Excluding pending UFA and RFA Oilers expose
    Forwards: Pouliot and Letestu
    Defence: Fayne
    Goalie: Brossoit or Ellis
    Las Vegas has to sign 20 players under contract for 2018/19.
    14 Forward-9 Defence-3 goalies

    Las Vegas can easily draft Brossoit.
    Las Vegas will be looking to add depth after the expansion draft

    Pouliot+retain $2million for Las Vegas 4th round pick.

  114. blainer says:

    russ99: Agreed, a D trade could be disruptive, especially someone that is weak on the defensive side, messing with our defensive balance, and putting more pressure on Talbot.

    Defense wins in the playoffs, and other than the game changing talent of McDavid and to a lesser extent Talbot, better team defense is behind our improvement.

    Do we really want to mess with that just to have a prettier offense or a better point shot?

    What I really want to see is a top PK forward. Carolina has the top PK in the league right now. Wonder who their top PK forward is or is it just great coaching.

    Now we may already have this player in Lander but not sure.

    The PK is vital in the playoffs and if we can find our Guy Carbonneau that would be Huge.

    If that forward is a center who can win draws even better.

    Man what a great topic as opposed to chatting about the draft !!

  115. Jethro Tull says:

    Looks like we’re back to trading the rights to Omark’s ghost for veteran help for a playoff run.

    I beg some of you to look to Chicago, who have never, ever fallen in love with their prospects in pursuit of a cup. Ask Brandon Saad.

  116. Jethro Tull says:

    East bound and down, loaded up and truckin’

    We’re gonna do what they say can’t be done…..

  117. N64 says:

    dustrock: here’s the results of Bob McKenzie asking coaches their gripes with this season

    They also asked about best player.

    Not bad for a guy with a higher sweater number than career appearances:

    Crosby 15
    McDavid 7
    Ovechkin 1
    Backstrom 1

  118. Georges says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    npanciroli,

    Chicago did have a shaky start, yes. And only Panarin was producing. Kane has caught up now and Anisimov got going. Toews still struggling. The team is better now but not as good as in years past. Minny looks legit but otherwise the West looks wide open for the taking this year while the juggernauts are in the East.

    My two points are thus:
    1) This is a good year to go for it in the West–why settle for just getting in the dance? It’s a good year to try to go deep. Be buyers where it makes sense (i.e, going for rentals that will cost less, a la Vrbata).

    2) Don’t discount the Oilers because their record vs good teams is not good. Chicago’s is only middle of the pack– less than .500 vs. the top 15 and yet I think most fans would say they are ahead of the Oilers at this stage. The Oilers are gaining on Chicago and I bet by next year at this time they will be even with the Blackhawks.

    I looked at the 4 tiers idea you had.

    My great tier includes CBJ, WAS, MIN, PIT. (above .700 P%)

    My good tier includes CHI, MTL, NYR, SJS, ANA, EDM, OTT, TOR, NSH (above .550 P%).

    Edmonton has played 18 games against teams in the top 2 tiers. They have 11 points. That’s a .306 P%.

    Chicago has played 17 games against the top 2 tiers. They have 18 points.

    Minnesota, 18 games, 32 points.

    Anaheim, 20 games, 19 points.

    San Jose, 21 games, 26 points.

    If the playoffs started today and we looked at everyone’s record against the teams that are left, the Oilers might comfortably have the worst record (assuming BOS doesn’t make it). I’m cheering just as much the rest of us for the playoffs. As you said, once you’re in, anything can happen. But, unless the Oilers hit another level, some things are more likely to happen.

  119. Scungilli says:

    dustrock: – And last but not least, a plea for players to assume more responsibility to protect themselves “in the battle areas.

    Truth for the Oilers.

  120. Woogie63 says:

    Cap Friendly has a simulator for the upcoming expansion draft … clearly some teams have more talent that will be exposed than they want. Here is a quick list (I don”t agree all these names will be available)

    Ducks
    Despres
    Stoner
    Manson
    Silfverberg

    Arizona
    Doan
    Burmistrov
    Vrbata
    Schenn

    Boston
    Hayes
    Kevan Miller
    Liles

    Buffalo
    Moulson,
    Kuilov
    Gorges
    Franson

    Carolina
    Faulk

    Black Hawks
    Kruger
    Panik
    Hartman
    Van Riemsdyk

    Columbus
    Jack Johnson
    Savard
    Karl’s son
    Anderson

    Detroit
    Smith
    Sproul

    Florida
    Pysyk

    Kings
    Nolan
    King

    Minnie
    Staal
    Stewart
    Borodin
    Scandella

    Nashville
    Wilson
    Arvidsson
    Smith
    Watson
    Jarnkrok

    NYI
    Clutterbuck
    Hickey
    Pulock

    NYR
    Hayes
    Grabner
    Lindberg

    Sens
    Mark Stone

    Sharks
    Boedker
    Ward
    Martin
    Dillon

    Bolts
    Killorn
    Boyle
    Namestnikov
    Koekkoek
    Garrison
    Viburnum
    Nesterov

    Vancouver
    Sbisa

    Caps
    Eller
    Orlov

    Jets
    Armia

  121. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    oscarmike:

    Caleb Jones+2017 3rdpick for Boone Jenner.

    This is the best season Columbus has ever had, and it’s not even close.

    There is absolutely no way they are selling at the deadline. No chance.

  122. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: I think the Oilers may have to make him available because of it. These RH are so rare, I can see a scenario where Bear+ goes out for a RH who is farther along (Montour, etc).

    That worries me. I want to cheer for these players HERE, not elsewhere.

  123. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Georges,

    Thanks for doing that.

    I think despite trying to clarify by summarizing in two points, I muddled things further

    I don’t think the Oilers are better than SJS and ANA (or Chicago) yet. In an earlier post I mentioned the Oilers are going from awful to good, making swift work of middling, but I think they are not at the top of the good group by any means. That is why I used Chicago as an example–they aren’t that good this year but are clearly better than the Oilers.

    Oilers have one more year yet (in my opinion) to get to Chicago’s tier. If you look at the Oilers’ goal differential, yeah they have probably outperformed in terms of points than what you can reasonably expect.

    All that stated, the Pacific is not a great division and it is not a stretch to see the Oilers beating Anaheim in the first round, for example. This is a tough league to win in and who knows what happens in terms of post-expansion moves. I think if you are talking about making the playoffs and getting the young guys experience, and if a couple of deals can help them get a longer run, why not?

    To summarize Billy Beane in the Michael Lewis book “Moneyball,” once you get in the playoffs it is a bit of a crapshoot.

    I am not saying to give up the farm here. I am also with spoiler in that it is not a buyer/seller either/or proposition. There are assets the Oilers should absolutely look to sell on at the same time. Also I don’t want to see deals like Slepy for Stafford.

    Hence my example: Hendricks for a 3rd, 3rd and Musil/Simpson for Vrbata. Deals like that. Vrbata solidifies the top line RW and allows Drai to move back to 2C. It is a cheaper deal that makes sense (vs. giving up a lot more for Hanzal–I talked myself out of that idea).

  124. linkfromhyrule says:

    Georges: If the playoffs started today and we looked at everyone’s record against the teams that are left, the Oilers might comfortably have the worst record (assuming BOS doesn’t make it). I’m cheering just as much the rest of us for the playoffs. As you said, once you’re in, anything can happen. But, unless the Oilers hit another level, some things are more likely to happen.

    This is a good point. Hopefully now that our second line appears to be coming out of its slump, they will help us to win more games against the “great tier.” Being a one line team is much easier against bottom feeders, but it isn’t very effective against actually good teams with depth.

    Also, (and this could be bias in the ol’ memory banks) it seems like many of these games against the teams above .550 pts% came within that time of poor performance in November/December. Maybe now that the team as a whole is playing better we will fare somewhat better in the future?

    February will certainly be an interesting month. It could be quite fortuitous for the deadline to fall at the end of one of our tougher months. It should give Chia a good idea of where we are at.

    Odd scheduling note about February though, we only have one game against a divisional opponent (ARI), and only 6 of the 12 games in the month are against opponents in our conference.

  125. geowal says:

    Lowetide: I think the Oilers may have to make him available because of it. These RH are so rare, I can see a scenario where Bear+ goes out for a RH who is farther along (Montour, etc).

    If a better one is coming back, I suppose. Seems like you’d be a lot better to sent 2-4 of the lefties away for one equal righty coming back.

  126. Woodguy says:

    Scungilli:
    Goal Diff and playoff success are often pretty in line. The Oilers are right in it in the West, however their goals against is on the high side, not a harbinger of a playoff killer.

    The Oilers might beat the Sharks or Ducks, but it would be a bigger miracle than 06 to get to the final past the Central winner this year.

    A low cost deal wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but it is wasting assets to think short term at this point. I think the East is very likely to win the cup again. The Wild don’t impress me, and they are the west’s best bet on paper. We’ll see if Jumbo has more gas in the tank than last year at a year older.Maybe he’ll go opposite and shave the beard for more speed and save energy in the playoffs.

    I disagree.

    Central fell of the map this year imo

    MIN is Al about Doobie. Run him a few times, shoot some pucks at his head and they can be beat.

    CHI is similar, mostly goaler that reflects their record.

    Don’t get me wrong, a hot goalie can a middling team a Cup or get them through a few rounds, but it’s all about the goalie and if he falters the team crumbles.

    Score adjusted corsi is a good evaluator of team ability and here’s the WC and their NHL rank:

    LAK 2
    SJS 5
    NSH 8
    EDM 10
    STL 12
    CGY 15
    CHI 16
    ANA 18
    MIN 19
    DAL 20
    WPG 21
    VAN 24
    COL 29
    ARI 30

    LAK might not make it because they can’t score or stop a puck

    Oilers would be in good shape to go deep if they can get by SJS, the good lord willing and the creek don’t rise.

  127. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Yup. If your model is to make the finals like the ’06 team did, you need a new model.That team was an underdog all the way through.

    If you used shot metrics they were a big dog to DET, even/slight dog to SJS and a fav to ANA and CAR.

    Shitty goalies until the deadline had a very good team almost miss the playoffs.

    Similar to 2012 Kings entering the playoffs as a 8th seed and the best CF% in the leauge.

  128. Georges says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I agree with your moves and the principle of holding on to key parts.

    As for it’s not a stretch that the Oilers can beat Pacific teams in the playoffs if they make it, I would feel a lot more optimistic on that front if they started beating the Pacific playoff teams here in the regular season. The Oilers are where they are right now because they’ve crushed the middling tier. Here’s to the Oilers going all next level for the games coming up.

  129. Woodguy says:

    Georges,

    You need to ding the teams on a PDO bender and pump the good CF% teams with shite PDO.

    I’ve run my simple little model I mentioned before on all season from 07 on and a combo of SV% and CF% will always give you the goods.

    Occasionally you get a 2012 NJD make the finals, but variance is fun part of it that keeps writers employed.

  130. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Chia has to be at least thinking about this.

    Some of what we are is obscured by the horrific injury season last year.The improvement looks greater from year-to-year than what it really is and I think the size of the improvement makes some people reticent to go for it this year.

    If we were sneaking in as a wild card team I’d agree.But right now we have a very real chance to host a first round series.

    I think a couple astute deals are called for.

    I also think the “buyer/seller” dichotomy is false.Likely it will be a bit of both.

    Nice post sir.

  131. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q: That worries me. I want to cheer for these players HERE, not elsewhere.

    I felt the same way about tons of Oilers kids. Marc Habscheid, Shawn Van Allen, Tyler Wright, on it went. Not all of these young men will be Oilers, and as PC gets closer to setting his roster, we will see even fewer changes year over year. There is still time, but this roster is adding talent and eventually it will be a matter of replacing the free agents and those who have fallen off from their own previous performances.

  132. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Georges:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I agree with your moves and the principle of holding on to key parts.

    As for it’s not a stretch that the Oilers can beat Pacific teams in the playoffs if they make it, I would feel a lot more optimistic on that front if they started beating the Pacific playoff teams here in the regular season. The Oilers are where they are right now because they’ve crushed the middling tier. Here’s to the Oilers going all next level for the games coming up.

    And that’s why I am okay with San Jose winning the Division and avoiding them the first round. My goal is the #2 seed and playing Anaheim with home ice advantage.

    San Jose is going to be the lower ranked of the two Division winners (just guessing but I think this is likely). And if a team like St. Louis figures out their goaltending and takes the first wild card or LA finds their mojo again (gets Quick in form, etc.) it is not inconceivable that San Jose loses the first round.

    If the GMs are disgruntled about this dumb ladder format (and I agree), it may change soon. This could be a case of a lot of things falling into place for the Oilers. First goal, though is to get #2 seed ahead of Anaheim. I think it is doable.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    For the record, here is Woodguy’s Super Amazing Black Box Power Rankings:

    WSH
    S.J
    CBJ These 5 are the elite
    NSH
    MTL

    L.A
    MIN
    BOS
    CHI
    TOR These are the good teams
    EDM
    FLA
    ANA
    PIT
    CAR
    BUF

    OTT
    NYI
    NYR
    CGY These are ok-meh teams
    VAN
    T.B
    STL
    PHI

    DET
    N.J
    DAL
    WPG These teams are not good. No sir.
    ARI
    COL

  134. Ducey says:

    Versteeg with three over reactions to supposed high sticks and slashes. Right out of the PK Subban manual. Could play for the Italian soccer team.

    Tkachuk looks good. The Flamers might have stole one there.

  135. Jaxon says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Jaxon,

    I watch Wood play here in Tucson. Nice boxcars and size but he lacks footspeed…sound familiar? I see that being an issue at the next level, whereas guys like DeAngelo (when he is focused–he has issues with effort and mentally checking out), Honka, etc. not only have the playmaking but they are great skaters.

    I don’t understand your infatuation with KW. And like you say, why would Arizona, a rebuilding team, trade away a D prospect? Pipe dream, I think.

    Sound familiar to what? His size and boxcars at that age are not comparable to anyone I can think of. I don’t think it (my infatuation) is that hard to understand. He’s 6’5″, 229lbs, right handed, 20 years old, already scoring at a fairly elite pace in the 2nd hardest league in North America, his current NHLE is 33 points. It’s also interesting to note that two of his junior seasons were derailed by injury so his development may have been delayed a bit. Your assessment is the first I’ve read about his skating issues. So that would temper my valuation, but it is still very high. All the scouting reports I’ve read didn’t mention a skating problem and some mentioned the opposite. Here are a few:

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/kyle-wood/
    “Wood’s combination of size, skating and offensive instincts suggest he can be an impact defenseman at the NHL level.”
    Read more at http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/kyle-wood/#yUk5jH8KgFQOslkc.99

    http://www.dobberprospects.com/kyle-wood/
    “It should also be noted that despite his size and defensive responsibilities, Wood does not take many penalties, which vouches well for his ability to keep up with the play despite his size. ”

    http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-draft-war-room-kyle-wood/
    “Offense – Mainly a stay-at-homer so far but he mans the point on the second unit power play. He has a nice smoothness, mobility and agility to his game. But what makes me salivate is Kyle’s occasional stretch passes – it is the creativity and vision along with the ability to make them on the fly and even off balance that makes me think there is likely to be an explosion, an absolute explosion, in this guy’s offense next year.” and… “However, I can’t see why a 6’5, 229 lb. behemoth with physicality, vision, strong passing skills and decent mobility won’t at least go third round if not a whole lot higher.”

    DRAFT+3 AHL NHLEs:
    KYLE WOOD – 33
    PK SUBBAN – 27
    TYSON BARRIE – 25
    SHEA WEBER – 23
    ADAM LARSSON – 22
    CONNOR CARRICK – 22
    NIKITA ZADOROV – 21
    DAVID SAVARD – 19
    RYAN PULOCK – 18
    CODY FRANSON – 18
    RYAN SPROUL – 17
    VILLE POKKA – 17
    MARTIN MARINCIN – 17
    JASON DEMERS – 16
    MADISON BOWEY – 16
    REECE SCARLETT – 16
    CONNOR MURPHY – 14
    ANDREJ SEKERA – 14
    GRIFFIN REINHART – 14
    ALEX PETROVIC – 12
    FRANK CORRADO – 11
    COLIN MILLER – 10
    SCOTT MAYFIELD – 10
    OSCAR KLEFBOM – 8
    DAVID MUSIL – 8
    MARK PYSYSK – 7
    MICHAEL STONE – 7
    JOHNNY BOYCHUK – 7
    MORGAN ELLIS – 4

    These are all numbers from my research last season into possible targets to acquire for RD. I was studying development curves of D. None come close to Wood’s NHLE of 33, not even Subban, Barrie, and Weber. So yes, his boxcars are a big deal this season for a 20 year old.

    I think grabbing a RD on his way up at a cheaper acquisition price and who is close in age to McDavid, but also close to making it in the NHL is pretty valuable. Plus he’s on an ELC for the next 2 years and under control for a long time.

  136. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Jaxon,

    Thanks for this. Weird about the skating. He looks sluggish out there to me in all the games I’ve seen in person. He is a good passer, as I mentioned. It could be because he is big so he looks slower than he actually is. Tucson is a good team with some talent. It seems to me a lot of his points have come on the PP from passing the puck and from making those solid stretch passes to the speedy forwards, of which there are quite a few.

    If he is as good as you say he is, no way Arizona trades him anyway. I just don’t see that kind of upside (Subban/Weber) to Wood, but I could be blind.

  137. Jaxon says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    You’re probably quite right on all fronts. Eye test certainly matters to confirm stats, but I haven’t gone through the trouble of watching any of his games at $8 a pop, although I might check one out soon. Good point about possibly PP padded stats. I haven’t researched that. That said, I’m sure many of the D on that list had plenty of PP time as well. I doubt he’ll be a Subban or a Weber, but he could be a Parayko. Wouldn’t it have been nice to try to acquire Parayko before his breakout NHL rookie season?

    This is a bit of own-horn-tootin’ but I have identified some targets in the past, in a June, 2015 comment on Lowetide, I mentioned they should target Adam Larsson, Matt Benning (I don’t think he was on many people’s radars back then), Madison Bowey (still high on him), Colton Parayko (before his rookie season), along with Pysyk, Petrovic, Pulock, and Paliotta (I was big on Paliotta, and that may be a big swing and a miss). Apparently it was the summer of “P” and “B” named right handed D.

    And you are absolutely right, Arizona may not be willing to consider trading him. I’d send a Davidson or Pouliot plus swap draft picks with them for Wood if my scouts thought his NHLE was the real deal and his skating was good enough.

    Thanks for the heads up on his skating. If his skating i weak, he’d definitely be one to be concerned about paying too much to take a flyer on him.

    EDIT: When I start bragging about a comment from over 2 years ago, I should just step away form my keyboard. Pathetic. Haha.

  138. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Jaxon,

    No, thanks for this. And kudos for identifying Parayko, Benning, etc. as targets. You were ahead of the curve. Larsson many here wanted him for a long time before 2015, but anyway…

    I will go to several more Roadrunners games live so will watch Wood more closely for you. Too bad hockeystreams went away, because I think you could watch every AHL game that was televised, too, if you wanted.

  139. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Kyle Wood at Evens:
    2G-8A

    Kyle Wood on the PP:
    6G-14A

    Needs primo PP minutes to put up the numbers that he does. Will he get that at the NHL level?

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