ROOKIE CROPS, THEN AND NOW

Beginning today, we are launching a new series (unless you hate it) on previous Oilers rookie seasons. I think many of you may not know the impact of first-year men on this organization over the years. So, today, I will do two seasons: 1979-80, and this year, which we can update from time to time throughout the rest of the regular year. Let’s get started:

1979-80

  • Total Rookies of Interest: 14
  • 1979 Draft Notes: No. 21 overall Kevin Lowe was ranked No. 12 among 1959-born draft eligible players. The Oilers had him rated ‘anywhere from No. 10 to No. 13 overall’ on draft day.
  • Best Player as a Rookie: Wayne Gretzky. He was the best player in the league. Although not technically a rookie, because the NHL decided it one day, the young man from Brantford, Ontario was beyond ridiculous from the start. Bruce McCurdy knew he was the best player who ever lived early on, and the rest of us caught up by the first NHL spring in Edmonton.
  • Second Best Player as a Rookie: Blair MacDonald. A WHA veteran, this was his first NHL season at 25. He scored 46 goals and 94 points riding shotgun with 99. Not a fast skater, he had a great shot and fell ass over tea kettle into the grandest luck this side of Rob Brown. Like Brown, it would be a mistake to discount the natural talent of MacDonald.
  • Oldest Rookie: RD Bryon Baltimore was 27, and played his only two NHL games in this season. Another WHA vet, Baltimore hung around the minors for a little while afterward. He was well regarded by his teammates as a tough-as-nails defender and had a wicked sense of humor. Must have been smart, too.
  • Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: MacDonald.
  • Most Unusual Story: Mark Messier. Not Messier per se, but Punch Imlach about Mark Messier. In his book about his career with Toronto and Buffalo in the 1970s, Imlach wrote about the 1979 draft. He blamed his scouts (Imlach always blamed someone) for taking Laurie Boschman and not Brian Propp (both Brandon Wheat Kings) in the first round, and then threw his scouts under the bus again for sins not even committed in the third round. He wrote that he asked about Messier being available, and was told by scouts that 11 would not be taken in 1979. Only two picks before the Toronto turn, Edmonton called the Moose. That meant Imlach didn’t have a story, but the bugger used it in his book anyway. Lordy.
  • Another Unusual Story: When the Indianapolis Racers sold Gretzky to Edmonton, part of the money procured was used to sign Mark Messier just three days after the 99 sale.
  • Yet Another Unusual Story: Kevin Lowe was told the 1979 draft (via telephone) was to start at 10am. He expected a call from Alan Eagleson around 10:15 to tell him which team had selected him in the first round. Lowe waited, and waited, and waited. By 10:45am the phone hadn’t rung and Lowe’s mom said “My God, they’re not drafting him.” A mixup in the phone lines caused a one hour delay, but the Lowe household was not aware of it. At 11:10, Eagleson’s secretary called with the news Edmonton had chosen Lowe—21st overall.
  • Here’s One: Glen Sather was impressed by Mark Messier as he played AGAINST the Oilers in the 78-79 season (WHA). Edmonton’s Dennis Sobchuk was a pretty good player and legend has it he thought he could take the kid in the Cincinnati Stinger uniform. Messier apparently had a slight edge in punches. 12-0. Sather noticed and picked him 48th overall in the deepest draft in history.
  • Confusing but true: Many of the kids I count as rookies had some WHA experience. Dave Hunter was acquired by the WHA Oilers and spent some time in their minor league system. When he finally saw Edmonton, Hunter showed he belonged. Here is a passage from a December 1978 edition of The Hockey News: The rookie left winger, an accomplished checker despite his inexperience, moved into a position beside Gretzky and Flett and made sound contributions on almost every shift. It was clear that Hunter’s two weeks in Dallas (CHL) had restored his confidence. In that regard, his first pro goal helped too. “I was beginning to think I’d never score,” he said after beating Mike Liut with a high shot. “The longer you go, the harder it seems to get.”
  • Longest NHL careers. There were a load of lengthy careers in here. Mark Messier (1756), Wayne Gretzky (1487), Kevin Lowe (1254), Dave Hunter (746), Dave Semenko (575) and Risto Siltanen (562) represent the best one-year congregation of rookie NHL players in the game’s history.
  • Anything Else? Ron Chipperfield isn’t included, but he was a rookie that year too. He was sent to Quebec for Ron Low at the deadline, during trying circumstances detailed in the Gzowski book.
  • Hall of Fame Careers: Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier.
  • Careers Worthy of Consideration: Kevin Lowe. I have long felt Lowe should receive strong consideration, and in the last several years there is a building verbal. We will see. I think he makes it.

2016-17

  • Total Rookies of Interest: 7
  • 2016 Draft Notes: Edmonton picked Jesse Puljujarvi at No. 4 overall. He was an ideal selection for the team, as his position (RW) was an area of need and his style was ideal. In the words of Red Line Report big horse looks and plays like a Mats Sundin clone.
  • Best Player as a Rookie: Matt Benning. He is a strong two-way defender, and a perfect fit on the right side for Edmonton. He can wheel, gives the opposition a different look and makes clever plays. He can defend, and he can hit and fight. This is an ideal college player for the city of Edmonton.
  • Second Best Player as a Rookie: Jesse Puljujarvi. He has played less than half a season in Edmonton, but the big Finn and his rambunctious style had an impact early and will again later in the year. He is not the best rookie on the team, but his career arc is very likely to be splendid.
  • Oldest Rookie: LD Dillon Simpson is just a little older than Laurent Brossoit, both are 23.
  • Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: Matt Benning will turn 23 in May.
  • Most Unusual Story: Nothing major yet. Forced to choose, I would pick Jesse Puljujarvi falling on draft day. Truly weird.
  • Longest NHL careers. Whoever inherits this blog will have to tell you.
  • Anything Else? Like most Oilers rookie clusters this century, it isn’t what these rookies will do as rookies, it is what their peak levels will look like.

CORSI REL FOR BLUE

Every once in a long time (not as much recently) I am asked my method of evaluation for defensemen. This often (these days) comes out of my stubborn defense of Mark Fayne. Allow me to make my point, and then we can go back to arguing about errors in the mist. A few points, all of them in 5×5 game state:

  • Generally speaking, offense from defensemen is mostly equal across dozens and dozens of men at 5×5. There are very few difference makers. There are four defenders who are scoring 1.40/60 5×5 or more this season, 41 men over 1.00/60. There are 100 more between 0.50/60 and 0.99/60. I don’t really rate most of these players as having special powers, beyond Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, a few others, that is it. Dougie Hamilton is having a really good year in this discipline, if he can do it over a few years, then we add him to the list.
  • Quality competition has a lot to do with game state, so we have to factor it in. Qual Comp is one damned elusive thing, though, I am really warming up to the WoodMoney buckets of elite, middle and gritensity. A moving target surely, but valuable if you can find top dead center.
  • Zone starts have faded in importance, you rarely hear them mentioned. I still pay attention to them, but don’t post them here because, well, we are trying to build a consensus and this blog attempts to be that in its day to day. Important, I believe, zone starts, we can’t surround them yet. They will come into view up the road apiece.

So, with all of this as backdrop, I like CorsiRel. You have to consider the offense, the quality of competition, throw salt over your shoulder and say an Our Father, but for me CorsiRel is as tight a rhythm section as we can manage without kidnapping Bill Wyman and Charlie Watts. That said, I am willing to adapt. Ladies and gentleman, time on ice at 5×5 versus elites (via WoodMoney).

TOI V. ELITES AT 5X5, 2016-17

  • The second and third columns are via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, first one is WoodMoney elite minutes divided by games played. I am not absolutely certain if WM was updated, so it may have one extra game in there.
  • Kris Russell plays (by my ciphering) the most elite minutes per game, and his possession numbers reflect it might be wise to back him off a little. Plenty of heavy on Russell, but as is the case so very often, it is usage that we should be shaking our fists at this morning.
  • Andrej Sekera is in the same range in terms of minutes, and shows much better in possession. This matches the eye test, where we see the puck moving up north often.
  • Adam Larsson trails the first pairing but just a hair, and his possession numbers are solid good. It is very encouraging to see him performing this well, while facing a full six minutes of gale force winds. This is good.
  • Oscar Klefbom is the first of the young draft kids to come up and play the giants, just a little shy of the big three but his possession numbers are excellent. Credit to Todd McLellan, who has pulled him back a time or two, and to the player, who is looking like a complete defenseman.
  • Matt Benning is a flat out rookie, but his TOI against elites has been increasing all year, and his possession numbers keep climbing. This is breaking news! We have a bulletin bulletin bulletin!
  • Mark Fayne, he of the four games in the NHL this season, has a good possession set but played the least amount of TOI against elites. I often get folks sending me tweets about how crazy I am, and you know that could be true. My family has no corner on clarity, and maybe I don’t understand this stuff very well. That said, I think it is possible to say (and I am) that Todd McLellan might be better off switching the top name and the bottom on my graph. Call me crazy, but I believe it.
  • That doesn’t mean that I think Todd McLellan is a bad, bad man, or that I think you should hook up your pickup to a trailer with a sign on it. No sir. Todd McLellan has access to all kinds of information I do not, and he knows what he wants from his players. I think he prefers more speed, and Kris Russell is certainly faster than Mark Fayne.
  • That doesn’t mean Mark Fayne cannot play in the NHL, it just means he is not playing for Todd McLellan.
  • Much of what I receive in regard to Fayne revolves around my sanity. People cannot believe I still hang on to the idea that Mark Fayne is an NHL defenseman. I will tell you, honestly, my stance is not an effort to piss you off, or endure the slings and arrows of your tweets in a crazy attempt to be blogger Jesus. I find myself defending minor leaguer Mark Fayne because the player has given me no reason to abandon him. I believe he is still a good player. So what would you have me do? Agree with you in an effort to keep some strange peace? Mark Fayne may never play another game in the NHL, but this blog still believes in him. George McPhee, if you are reading this, call Peter Chiarelli and tell him you will draft Mark Fayne in expansion but he has to trade you Caleb Jones. You might be surprised by his answer. And also by Mark Fayne, next season.

TOP 10 OILERS SCORING, LAST 10 GAMES

  1. Connor McDavid, 10gp, 2-11-13. He is a machine. Even in games where clean air is an issue, 97 finds a way to get on the scoresheet. Very few players in NHL history have this ability, even fewer at age 20. He has 33 shots in the last 10 games, shooting percentage is just 6.1. That will improve and goal production will increase.
  2. Leon Draisaitl, 10gp, 3-6-9. Most encouraging is his even-strength number in this 10-game set (3-5-8) and that bodes well for him. Leon is posting back to back strong seasons.
  3. Patrick Maroon, 10gp, 7-0-7. Remains an even-strength scoring demon, I am a little concerned that opponents are getting him to fight (and keeping him off the ice). In the last 10 games, he has 18 pims. Too many. Sad!
  4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 10gp, 3-4-7. Music! Plus he is shooting more (28 shots) and is 3-2-5 at even strength. Having a second line that can score anywhere close to a goal a game is going to be massive. Big deal. Big damned deal.
  5. Jordan Eberle, 10gp, 3-3-6. All but one assist is at evens, 24 shots represents a healthy total but there is room for improvement. He looks like a completely different player in these recent games. On pace for 82gp, 18-35-53, which looks like a Jordan Eberle season (although the goals total remains a little shy).
  6. Adam Larsson, 9gp, 0-6-6. The biggest surprise in the last 10 games, this is not an offensive defender. He is also +10 in these games, showing his defensive skills to great effect.
  7. Zack Kassian, 10gp, 1-4-5. The numbers are fine, but what has really impressed me about Kassian recently is his foot speed. I think the penalty killing might be keeping him in the game, but that is a guess.
  8. Oscar Klefbom, 10gp, 2-3-5. Has 34 shots in these last 10 games, meaning he has more shots on goal than any other Oilers player. Also lugging the puck more these days, really coming into his own.
  9. Mark Letestu, 10gp, 3-2-5. The second fourth liner in the top 10 scorers, Letestu plays on both special teams and has made himself valuable in all areas.
  10. Matt Benning, 9gp, 2-2-4. The young man is involved in good things basically every shift, and his scoring totals are very good for a rookie getting his minutes. What a find!
  11. Source

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show, beginning this morning at 10, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Heading into the All-Star break, what has been the best story for the Oilers? Benning? Maroon? Also, I will ask Jon for his current expansion draft protected list for the Oilers.
  • Colin Miller, FC Edmonton. The Eddies are announcing some roster returnees and it should be an interesting year for the side. Some defections, but stout goaltending and increased offense should be part of the 2017 formula.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Is the Leafs current crop of rookies the best of this century? Plus, the joy of watching your team play against Matt Tkachuk and the Oilers at the deadline.
  • Simon Boisvert, Prospect Insider. How long should Jesse Puljujarvi be in Bakersfield, Tyler Benson injury, more on Oilers prospects.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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145 Responses to "ROOKIE CROPS, THEN AND NOW"

  1. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!: I think you have 3 posts worth of material in this post: GOLD….

  2. Scungilli says:

    I wonder if at this point like the early NHL Oilers there are roster spots for guys willing to drop the gloves and stand up for the team. Once the team matures it matters less.

    I see Fayne as a better player than Gryba, and you’d have to think he would be a better right hand option than Russell given the 6 point drop off for playing wrong side.

  3. OilClog says:

    Fayne is not a top6 D on a playoff team, could he go to an expansion team and be top 6.. Probably not because of all the other players available. Vegas will be loaded with 4/5 spot defenders, Fayne is a 6/7 on a team decimated by injuries.

    When Russell gets his side of the blue line attacked, he can skate with the attacker all the way to behind the net… Fayne, immediate breakaways.

  4. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Two unfortunate W’s for the team ahead of the Oil last night, but given the competition it wasn’t exactly a surprise. Oilers just need to keep pace, San Jose has a tough March schedule and ground can be made up there. I see the Oil Kings only have four games at Rogers Place in March, hopefully that means the ice will get a bit of a breather for the NHL squad.

    Hehe oh Calgary. Loving the hysteria over the Komarov-Gaudreau hit. Gulultzan was rather surprised there was no penalty while I was surprised he was that mad about a clean hit. Oh well.

    LA is starting to fade pretty far into the distance, Oilers need to increase the blacktop between the two ASAP.

    Opening comment on yesterday’s thread mentioned the idea of Klefbom for Barrie (the poster was not in favour of that deal). Given Klef’s shot, goal and point totals this year I would consider that asset swap along the lines of trading Draisaitl for Curtis Lazar, sure you could do it, but why? There has been a feeling of dealing Klef since before the holidays and really rankled me. Maybe its being discussed inside the GM office and people are picking up on the vibes but needless to say I’m not a fan of this idea one iota.

    Woodguy’s list yesterday for team rankings was interesting. I don’t agree that Columbus and Nashville are ahead of Chicago and Pittsburgh, actually I’m kind of surprised that those two were placed there. I think Columbus’ play since the end of the 16 game winning streak is more indicative of their overall ability than the streak itself. Also Nashville gives up roughly as many goals as the Oilers, scores slightly less, and have a brutal road record but are considered elite? Not seeing it but will gladly admit my options on both are strictly opinion, no stats to back it up other than W-L-OTL and goals for/against.

    Everything else seems to be in line though.

  5. Scott Reynolds says:

    Kevin Lowe was, in fact, 10th overall on Edmonton’s list. Kevin Lowe showed the 1979 draft list to Taylor Hall in an episode of Oil Spill sometime in 2010. You can see almost the whole thing. I transcribed the list and wrote about it that summer. The formatting of that post is a bit messy now (SBN made some changes to their layout and old posts go a bit wonky), but here it is if you’d like to take a gander:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/8/21/1635027/the-draft-list

    Worth noting: Lowe was ranked 12th by The Hockey News among the 1959 guys, but that draft had two years worth of players eligible for the first time (1959 and 1960) so they probably had Lowe somewhere in the 20s overall.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    I’m almost finished with a different model that uses:

    1) only starting goalie data
    2) a little bit of shooting % data

    PIT got dinged heavily in my other model for Fleury, but when trying to divine “better playoff teams” it’s probably best to use the starter only.

    Also,

    CHI isn’t that good. Honest.

  7. dustrock says:

    Most unusual story this season may be playing Puljujarvi just enough to burn an RFA year and then immediately sending him to the A.

  8. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I look forward to the updated results!

  9. Diesel says:

    Allan Mitchell, blogger Jesus.

  10. JimmyV1965 says:

    Predators beat the Wild the other night and were simply the better team. I see them regaining form in the second half and going on a roll. I would also prefer playing the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs than either the Ducks or the Sharks. That would require fallng to the wild card spot though so I’m not super keen on the notion. I really think the Hawks are doing it with mirrors. They have zero depth and are getting old.

  11. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Scott Reynolds,

    Great to see you posting here lately, Scott. I hope all is well.

  12. Oddspell says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    I’m almost finished with a different model that uses:

    1) only starting goalie data
    2) a little bit of shooting % data

    PIT got dinged heavily in my other model for Fleury, but when trying to divine “better playoff teams” it’s probably best to use the starter only.

    Also,

    CHI isn’t that good.Honest.

    Would it be possible to see the rankings of teams in previous years for reference?

  13. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    CHI isn’t that good.Honest.

    I hear you.

    The two teams that were ranked higher than I expected in your model were Florida and Buffalo. NYR was lower than expected.

  14. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, Watts + Wyman = sublime

    Very unique band in that the rhythm guitarist dictates the pocket with Charlie taking his cue from Keef on tempo. Wyman marched in lockstep with Watts.

    But what you essentially had is Wyman reading off Watts who’s reading off Richards. Now, they’re all playing the same song they’ve played hundreds of times so those response delays are infinitesimal, but you can hear it in the tracks and especially off the stage. It’s that infamous swampy groove that only the best blues combos can conjure. Sloppy in all the right ways.

    Would imagine we have quite a few posters who took in the lads when they were here on the Voodoo and Babylon tours. An indelible memory for me was the Brown Sugar encore on the latter set. Keef shambles out to center stage and with a big flourish promptly nails the wrong chord. Seriously Keef? Better living through chemistry….

  15. hunter1909 says:

    I’d just written post so dynamic, so HUGE that I’m sure everyone would have been singing hunter1909’s praises for the rest of the season – sadly the server told me to go away until later, lol

  16. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Very unique band in that the rhythm guitarist dictates the pocket with Charlie taking his cue from Keef on tempo. Wyman marched in lockstep with Watts.

    You might actually be referring to ACDC.

  17. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: You might actually be referring to ACDC.

    Nice. Good example of another band that follows that template. Malcolm Young was a human metronome.

  18. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Nice. Good example of another band that follows that template. Malcolm Young was a human metronome.

    I never could stand that jerk with the school uniform. Public perceptions aside, Malcolm ran that band 100%

  19. Woogie63 says:

    Post the All Star break is going to be busy for GMs.

    Several teams have more NHL talent than they can protect for the upcoming expansion draft.

    And

    Trade deadline rentals will be quite interesting this year (as an Oiler fan)

  20. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: But what you essentially had is Wyman reading off Watts who’s reading off Richards.

    I’m not all that well versed in discussing music. What I do understand is, the difference between the Rolling Stones playing one of their songs and a bar band thinking they’re getting close is, as Bruce might say, astronomical.

  21. OilClog says:

    Hmmm 65 points, 30 wins tied for the conference lead. Starting goalie with 18 wins, back up with 12.

    Two legit scoring lines, a legit top 4. Underperforming PK but 5th in the league in GAA.

    A coach that still has his team buying in.

    Yes, not that good at all lol

    Still has their cup winners together, last years art Ross champ, and 4 guys nearing 20goals.

    Not a single month of games played where they’ve lost more then they’ve won.

    Tied with San Jose in the west with only 14 games not recording at least 1 point. Minnesota at 11.

    Yup, not very good lol.

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: I’m not all that well versed in discussing music. What I do understand is, the difference between the Rolling Stones playing one of their songs and a bar band thinking they’re getting close is, as Bruce might say, astronomical.

    100% agree. Saw an amazing bar band in San Fran at a club called ‘Johnny Love’s’ and they were the only group that I saw even come close. They had the whole guitar ‘weaving’ bit down pat.

    Country blues rhythm player. Jazz rhythm section. Hyperactive lead singer.

    Now, why would that be so hard to duplicate? lol

  23. doritogrande says:

    Fayne is not a top6 D on a playoff team,

    Respectfully disagree. The Oilers do this to good defensemen with stunning regularity. You want another example of someone who wasn’t good enough to play a Top-6 role for the Oilers, see what Nick Schultz has done in the past two years.

    Coaching staff got stubborn on a guy that couldn’t trim his sideburns anymore. He’s effective in what he brings, but McLellan doesn’t think he can use what Fayne brings, or believe he’s capable of playing within his scheme (he can).

  24. kinger_OIL says:

    hunter1909:
    I’d just written post so dynamic, so HUGE that I’m sure everyone would have been singing hunter1909’s praises for the rest of the season – sadly the server told me to go away until later, lol

    Hunter says: I’m a very big person when it comes to posting. I have received awards on my posts
    People tell me
    You are gonna be great with that post
    Smart people
    Really clever people
    It’s gonna be Huuuge

  25. hunter1909 says:

    kinger_OIL: Hunter says: I’m a very big person when it comes to posting. I have received awards on my posts
    People tell me
    You are gonna be great with that post
    Smart people
    Really clever people
    It’s gonna be Huuuge

    I’m looking for a Press Secretary. You’re on the short list.

  26. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: 100% agree. Saw an amazing bar band in San Fran at a club called ‘Johnny Love’s’ and they were the only group that I saw even come close. They had the whole guitar ‘weaving’ bit down pat.

    Country blues rhythm player. Jazz rhythm section. Hyperactive lead singer.

    Now, why would that be so hard to duplicate? lol

    Tribute bands come the closest.

    The weird thing for me is the way jazz giants have all but died out. Zero replacements, rendering the form not dead exactly, something more akin to what happened between Beethoven performing gigs in Vienna back in the day and Klemperer’s earnest yet still cover band status renditions, lol.

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    doritogrande:
    Fayne is not a top6 D on a playoff team,

    Respectfully disagree. The Oilers do this to good defensemen with stunning regularity. You want another example of someone who wasn’t good enough to play a Top-6 role for the Oilers, see what Nick Schultz has done in the past two years.

    Coaching staff got stubborn on a guy that couldn’t trim his sideburns anymore. He’s effective in what he brings, but McLellan doesn’t think he can use what Fayne brings, or believe he’s capable of playing within his scheme (he can).

    I don’t think Fayne’s usage is an indictment on the player as much as it is an embracing of a youth movement. Chia and TMac have decided that those mins are better spent developing mobile young D like Benning, Nurse, Klefbom and Davidson as opposed to a slow vet who doesn’t project in the club’s long-term plans.

    Now, I guess a gripe can be made if Gryba plays over Fayne, and you feel Fayne is the superior player. But in keeping with today’s ’79 theme, this is a bit like arguing the merits of Bryon Baltimore over Poul Popiel. Neither player figures to be more than footnote by the time this club is competing for Cups.

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: Tribute bands come the closest.

    The weird thing for me is the way jazz giants have all but died out. Zero replacements, rendering the form not dead exactly, something more akin to what happened between Beethoven performing gigs in Vienna back in the day and Klemperer’s earnest yet still cover band status renditions, lol.

    I think it comes back to songs. Not enough jazz cats today writing material that will capture the public’s imagination. Shame, cos youtube should be an amazing outlet for this genre.

    Guys like Brubeck, Miles and Marsalis understood that you’ve got to give the public some form of melody to latch onto.

    Jazz musicians nowadays are either retreading the standards or bebop blowing material that’s completely inaccessible to a mainstream audience.

    Someone will blow it out of the water with a new song with amazing crossover potential, but in the meantime, we wait….

  29. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    For JAXON on Kyle Wood. I did some digging last night:

    Kyle Wood at Evens:
    2G-8A
    Kyle Wood on the PP:
    6G-14A
    Needs primo PP minutes to put up the numbers that he does. Will he get that at the NHL level?

  30. Bruce Wayne says:

    Las Vegas drafting Fayne in exchange for Caleb Jones is a brilliant idea for them, but is it brilliant for the Oilers?

  31. Hope is a good thing says:

    Enjoyed the entire post LT. The Sobchuk/Messier tilt reminded me of another the year before that I had an ice level view of… One of our smaller skill defencemen (18) gave Messier the stick and in a flurry of punches got his clock cleaned by the 16-year old. Our 20 year-old enforcer promptly jumped in to settle the score. In no time our two players were laid out on the ice – boom, boom, out go the lights! Maybe because they were both douches it didn’t ignite yet another bench clearing brawl…It was obvious pretty early Messier was going places.

  32. Timeisnow says:

    LT: I admire your ability to keep believing in Fayne(and MAP) most disagree with you but you keep the faith, I wonder if he believes in himself as much as you do. I do think he’s a NHL dman on the Avs or Knights, just not the Oilers.The biggest problem with him is the $ he makes. That’s not his fault, we all would have signed that contract.

    Cheers

  33. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Timeisnow,

    Funny thing is Fayne was target #1 that year in terms of the UFA crop. Fans online were generally very happy with the contract.

  34. doritogrande says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Agree, we’re probably debating a moot point as early as next year. My take home from it was that the Oilers have a history of beating to their own drum, and useful players get cast off for reasons that would make most people question the decision-making authority of those in charge. They have a history of maximizing their assets (Smid, Perron come to mind), but the hits outweigh the misses.

    I could get on-board with your youth movement suggestion, but it runs counter to normal veteran coaching strategies – namely, don’t trust rookies. Without the evidence that Fayne isn’t trusted by McLellan, his usage of Benning/Davidson/Nurse/even Klefbom and Larsson doesn’t hold water. BUT, if speed is the name of this game from the blueline, McLellan’s usage of Fayne might be justified.

  35. Shane says:

    On a related note. Mick Jagger turned 73 today.

  36. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: I never could stand that jerk with the school uniform. Public perceptions aside, Malcolm ran that band 100%

    Speaking of who really runs the band. Always loved this clip.

    https://youtu.be/5E3Z_dvkVcs

    Check out the sequence from 2:00 to 2:10

    That is Mick moving an obviously drunken Keef off the microphone. And Richards doesn’t hesitate. He knows who’s running the show.

    Btw, I feel like the phrase ‘drunken Keef’ is probably unnecessary duplication?

  37. Scungilli says:

    My biggest issue around Fayne is he is a prime age right shot D who is better than many on rosters. The true Oilering would be to get nothing for him because of sideburns after trading Hall for a high end version of Fayne. It ‘s crap asset management. His contract isn’t horrible.

  38. Bag of Pucks says:

    doritogrande:
    Bag of Pucks:

    Agree, we’re probably debating a moot point as early as next year. My take home from it was that the Oilers have a history of beating to their own drum, and useful players get cast off for reasons that would make most people question the decision-making authority of those in charge. They have a history of maximizing their assets (Smid, Perron come to mind), but the hits outweigh the misses.

    I could get on-board with your youth movement suggestion, but it runs counter to normal veteran coaching strategies – namely, don’t trust rookies. Without the evidence that Fayne isn’t trusted by McLellan, his usage of Benning/Davidson/Nurse/even Klefbom and Larsson doesn’t hold water. BUT, if speed is the name of this game from the blueline, McLellan’s usage of Fayne might be justified.

    As soon as Slats had Lowe, Coffey, Huddy, etc. he started plugging them in. And good vets like Price, Hicks and Campbell started losing their spots.

    Youth will be served.

    And you’re absolutely right, the Oil don’t have a strong track record in this regard. I would suggest that’s more the OBC than Chia?

  39. stush18 says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Las Vegas drafting Fayne in exchange for Caleb Jones is a brilliant idea for them, but is it brilliant for the Oilers?

    No.

  40. russ99 says:

    Using CF% for defensemen as a comparison tool truly frustrates me, since it for the most part disregards what the primary purpose of defensemen are: to defend.

    It’s akin to OPS in baseball where home run hitters are judged much more valuable than non-power hitters who get on base frequently.

    I’m looking forward to the next two games this week, but even more to All Star Weekend. Connor will probably put on a show for the ages with that much skating room and minimal checking,

  41. stush18 says:

    doritogrande:
    Bag of Pucks:

    Agree, we’re probably debating a moot point as early as next year. My take home from it was that the Oilers have a history of beating to their own drum, and useful players get cast off for reasons that would make most people question the decision-making authority of those in charge. They have a history of maximizing their assets (Smid, Perron come to mind), but the hits outweigh the misses.

    I could get on-board with your youth movement suggestion, but it runs counter to normal veteran coaching strategies – namely, don’t trust rookies. Without the evidence that Fayne isn’t trusted by McLellan, his usage of Benning/Davidson/Nurse/even Klefbom and Larsson doesn’t hold water. BUT, if speed is the name of this game from the blueline, McLellan’s usage of Fayne might be justified.

    Also, exposing fayne to waivers rather than gryba means you don’t lose gryba. I expect he would be picks off of waivers fairly quickly

  42. leadfarmer says:

    Mark fayne might still find a job out there but he’s really is overpayed by about 2- 3 times more than he should be. A team out there might give him 1.2 mil per in a Gryba role.

  43. stush18 says:

    russ99:
    Using CF% for defensemen as a comparison tool truly frustrates me, since it for the most part disregards what the primary purpose of defensemen are: to defend.

    It’s akin to OPS in baseball where home run hitters are judged much more valuable than any other kind of hitter.

    I’m looking forward to the next two games this week, but even more to All Star Weekend. Connor will probably put on a show for the ages with that much skating room and minimal checking,

    Agreed. People will say good dmen drive shots or eliminate shots, but for the majority of dmen, they fall somewhere in between either grouping.

    I don’t think many people use one stat, aka corsi or hdsc to measure players anymore. It’s a combination of both

  44. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Jazz musicians nowadays are either retreading the standards or bebop blowing material that’s completely inaccessible to a mainstream audience.
    Someone will blow it out of the water with a new song with amazing crossover potential, but in the meantime, we wait….

    With respect, I remember old people nagging me constantly about the return of Big Bands.

    Big Bands today are like watching 99 try to play in NHL “Events”.

    Oilers should bring back Messier for a playoff series. Katz surely has got a few back room combination/”energy” boosters up his crafty sleeve. Maybe that’s why Kevin Lowe is kept around – he’s the guinea pig.

  45. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Mark fayne might still find a job out there but he’s really is overpayed by about 2- 3 times more than he should be.A team out there might give him 1.2 mil per in a Gryba role.

    Fayne and Gryba will make fantastic playoff emergency defenders. Aside from that, they’re redundant in the face of the youth movement. I can’t even bother to notice them, given the dazzle of the 1st line and Larsson laying everyone out(I like his board work best : p).

  46. Wolfpack says:

    I recall watching an all star game where Kevin Lowe, early on, might even have been the first shift, hit a guy with an open ice check. Do any of the other old farts here remember that? Maybe my memory is foggy but I am sure that happened. The announcers didn’t know what to say.

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: I hear you.

    The two teams that were ranked higher than I expected in your model were Florida and Buffalo.NYR was lower than expected.

    Lunqvuist has had a slow start

  48. hunter1909 says:

    It appears many criticize Lucic. I prefer reading the game reports from enemy fans(who all fear him).

    Kassian’s another beauty.

    I also want to see Nurse return in time to tune up a few opposition skulls for the playoffs.

  49. hunter1909 says:

    Wolfpack:
    I recall watching an all star game where Kevin Lowe, early on, might even have been the first shift, hit a guy with an open ice check. Do any of the other old farts here remember that? Maybe my memory is foggy but I am sure that happened. The announcers didn’t know what to say.

    I used to think Steve Smith and Kevin Lowe were the same player.

    Scottish/Irish slitty eyes and all that.

    Lowe was a great player to have in I suppose the 3-4 position. I admit I was too busy watching Paul Coffey, then and still my all time fave Oiler ever.

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oddspell: Would it be possible to see the rankings of teams in previous years for reference?

    I have some historical results, but not with the changes I want to make.

    Usually picked 14/16 playoff teams.

    Usually had Pennant winners in top 5 (~75%)

    I was using entire season data though.

  51. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    leadfarmer:
    Mark fayne might still find a job out there but he’s really is overpayed by about 2- 3 times more than he should be.A team out there might give him 1.2 mil per in a Gryba role.

    No, he actually isn’t overpaid by 2-3 times. If I am Fayne I am livid with Edmonton management for torpedoing my value. $3m was fair for what he brought. He has just been deployed all wrong and is under a coach now who does not even trust him, let alone use him in the right role.

    He probably will sign somewhere for $1m and give someone a steal, but if he had been used properly, he probably could have gone on to get another multi-year deal at similar dollars. No chance of that now. Edmonton has cost him a lot of dollars and term on his next deal.

    RHD on a 2nd/3rd pairing with a good puck mover on the left side is where he would do well. Could he do that on this team now? Nope.

    Alas that ship has sailed now and the well is too poisoned to go back.

  52. Shane says:

    They’re moving the banners in Rogers Place today. Hopefully that helps.

  53. Younger Oil says:

    In case someone hasn’t seen it, no supplemental discipline will be handed out for the Leafs-Flames game last night.

    Fucking ridiculous.

    The incompetent boobery in the DOPS this year has been out of control.

  54. Scungilli says:

    Younger Oil:
    In case someone hasn’t seen it, no supplemental discipline will be handed out for the Leafs-Flames game last night.

    Fucking ridiculous.

    The incompetent boobery in the DOPS this year has been out of control.

    DOPES

  55. Shane says:

    Bohologo: July 26, no?

    Ahh yes I see that is correct now. ‘History Lovers Club’ Twitter has steared me wrong for the last time!

  56. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Alas that ship has sailed now and the well is too poisoned to go back.

    We do not know who poisoned that well though.

    This is generally a problem with well-poisoning, whereas when Sharif is coming into view out of the desert heat shimmer and shoots a well-thieving bastard, we damn well do know who did it.

  57. JDï™ says:

    hunter1909: I never could stand that jerk with the school uniform. Public perceptions aside, Malcolm ran that band 100%

    Well he didn’t write Angus’ solo parts, and really, nobody would pay to see a guy standing in the back, tapping his foot, and playing rhythm guitar. As critical as he was to the band, he needed Angus and Bon just as much as they needed him.

    Phil Rudd probably could have been replaced with Pete Best.

  58. spoiler says:

    LT said…

    •Zone starts have faded in importance, you rarely hear them mentioned. I still pay attention to them, but don’t post them here because, well, we are trying to build a consensus and this blog attempts to be that in its day to day.

    YEARS! Years I railed against this stat. Damn you’re stubborn, LT…

    Good on ya!

  59. JDï™ says:

    Shane:
    On a related note. Mick Jagger turned 73 today.

    I just found out that HBO canceled their plans for a 2nd season of Vinyl, which Jagger was co-producer of. Shame.

  60. JimmyV1965 says:

    OilClog:
    Hmmm 65 points, 30 wins tied for the conference lead. Starting goalie with 18 wins, back up with 12.

    Two legit scoring lines, a legit top 4. Underperforming PK but 5th in the league in GAA.

    A coach that still has his team buying in.

    Yes, not that good at all lol

    Still has their cup winners together, last years art Ross champ, and 4 guys nearing 20goals.

    Not a single month of games played where they’ve lost more then they’ve won.

    Tied with San Jose in the west with only 14 games not recording at least 1 point. Minnesota at 11.

    Yup, not very good lol.

    The Hawks obviously have a good team. No one said they are bad, but other than the Kane line nothing about that line up is scary. They have Kane and Panarin and the rest of the forward crew is meh.

    Hartman-Toews-Panik
    Panarin-Anisimov-Kane
    Hino0stroza-Kero-Hossa
    Desjardins-Schmaltz-Tootoo

    I would rather face this group in the playoffs then many other teams. It certainly doesn’t look like a lineup that should be leading the western conference in points. It just doesn’t.

  61. Bruce McCurdy says:

    spoiler:
    LT said…

    •Zone starts have faded in importance, you rarely hear them mentioned. I still pay attention to them, but don’t post them here because, well, we are trying to build a consensus and this blog attempts to be that in its day to day.

    YEARS!Years I railed against this stat.Damn you’re stubborn, LT…

    Good on ya!

    One person’s “consensus” is another person’s “group think”. 🙂

    I for one still value zone starts as a piece of information, even as it is far from perfect in that it doesn’t account for changes in the fly & *does* account for “earned ” faceoffs within shifts. It would be better as “shift start” but I don’t think we have that yet.

    I maintain that flawed information is (usually) better than no information, & zone start, imperfect as it may be, does speak to deployment & ultimately role.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    29 other GMs looked at him for free and said not worth it. Slow defensive dmen have no value. They played him with the best turd polisher this team has had in years and no one would take him of their hands for free including teams that are an absolute disaster defensively, looking at You Colorado.

  63. leadfarmer says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    The players that get the poor zone starts are the ones the coach will likely throw out there in the last 5 minutes protecting a lead and be the players the coach trusts to do so

  64. spoiler says:

    LT said…

    •Mark Fayne, he of the four games in the NHL this season, has a good possession set but played the least amount of TOI against elites. I often get folks sending me tweets about how crazy I am, and you know that could be true. My family has no corner on clarity, and maybe I don’t understand this stuff very well. That said, I think it is possible to say (and I am) that Todd McLellan might be better off switching the top name and the bottom on my graph. Call me crazy, but I believe it.

    All right, Crazy Horse…

    1. You’re going off an infinitesimal sample size for Fayne

    2. You’re not adjusting Russell’s numbers for playing on his off-side

    3. There are no QualTeam numbers provided

    4. Fayne would be replacing Benning or Gryba. Benning needs at-bats and Gryba does it for less while adding another element.

    5. There are no SC or HDSC numbers in your eval.

    6. Especially with small sample sizes, process has to be looked at and given some priority over results. We’ve all heard rumblings about the Oil coaching staff not liking HOW Fayne does his job. If he’s unwilling to change, do you leave that on the team?

    7. More specifically… Physical pushback has been a theme with the Chia Oilers. I’m not sure Fayne has that side to him. If that’s a strategy, you can let that inability go with a younger player, or with a scorer, but a vet defenseman?

    8. 29 other GMs passed on him at his price point, despite the league-wide righty D famine.

    Just my thoughts, and I can understand your defense of Fayne, and I’m happy we have that kind of depth. It’s a long road to Stanley’s house, I think we will see him again.

  65. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Well other than having to face Keith and Hjalmarson for half a game

  66. spoiler says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I maintain that flawed information is (usually) better than no information, & zone start, imperfect as it may be, does speak to deployment & ultimately role.

    Since we can’t see inside the numbers, they aren’t telling you anything except at the extremes, and even then we can’t say anything useful about degree. Comparing players is practically impossible

    Do I still look at them? Sure, especially to check for those extremes. But I don’t put much weight behind their narrative.

    As for consensus, the “group think” was exactly the opposite in prior years, which was why I was a lone voice here for a long time on this issue.

    Always enjoy hearing your opinion, Bruce. *tips hat*

  67. spoiler says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    The players that get the poor zone starts are the ones the coach will likely throw out there in the last 5 minutes protecting a lead and be the players the coach trusts to do so

    Players with poor zone starts are the ones who can’t get the puck to the other end of the ice and are always eating faceoffs in their own end.

    Both your statement and mine are true. Now what?

  68. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    leadfarmer:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    29 other GMs looked at him for free and said not worth it.Slow defensive dmen have no value.They played him with the best turd polisher this team has had in years and no one would take him of their hands for free including teams that are an absolute disaster defensively, looking at You Colorado.

    Now? yes. Because his value tanked thanks to the Oilers. My opinion is that at the time a lot of teams would have signed him for $3m or so per year. And he did not become that much worse instantly. He was just used in a system that does not suit him, and then not used at all.

    Remember healthy-scratching Petry to “challenge him?”

  69. JDï™ says:

    Bohologo: and I make a point of letting her know she’s aging better than Jagger.

    Is that meant to be a backhanded compliment?

  70. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    spoiler: We do not know who poisoned that well though.

    This is generally a problem with well-poisoning, whereas when Sharif is coming into view out of the desert heat shimmer and shoots a well-thieving bastard, we damn well do know who did it.

    True, we do not know who poisoned the well, but I bet Fayne is not a happy camper. What do you think?

  71. New Improved Darkness says:

    Zone starts can be rehabilitated.

    Even strength zone start excess per 60 = (total_O – total_D) / 2 / (total_mins / 60)

    This makes it commensurate with other statistics denominated per 60.

    This is such an obvious cognitive improvement that ESZSE/60 is pronounced “easy-x/60” (optional snake-lips).

    An EZ-x/60 of -3 means that if, over 60 minutes of ice time, you change three defensive draws into offensive draws, the player achieves ZS parity.

    ———

    Boyd Gordon 2015–2016

    5v5 Even Strength On Ice Stats

    TOI = 592:30
    OZFO = 117.0
    DZFO = 358.0

    (117-358)/2/(592.5/60) = -12.2

    That’s a load, man.

    Nugent-Hopkins 2015-16

    5v5 Even Strength On Ice Stats

    TOI= 795:07
    OZFO=245
    DZFO=235

    I’ll just eyeball that one at +0.4. Basically, an ozone push of fingers-of-one-hand per schedule month.

    Captain Matriculous 2015-2016

    5v5 Even Strength Individual Stats

    TOI=785:04
    OZFO=265
    DZFO=209

    EZ-x/60 = +2.14

    Definitely a small push. Two whole ozone draws per hour of even-strength playing time (which is not even one per game played).

    ———

    At the club level, we could also compute a season statistic we might perhaps call “hem length”, a team’s seasonal, aggregate EZ-x/60.

    Suppose an entire team is sucking kilt: not nearly enough tartan to reach the knees. We correct the player contributions for zone start duress, but where is the term for all the yarn dearly departed?

    Surely symmetry would demand a corresponding player correction for ending your shift with a hitch; some kind of zone stop correction.

    Saved by the glove. Out of the fire, and onto the pine.

    Of course, it might be your goalie too terrified to bumper the puck under control into a quick transition, so he simply mitts it.

    We correct for ZS because it’s easy enough to attribute, but we don’t correct for its logical corollary because it looks too much like plus/minus. Interesting. Bias, thy name is sneaky.

    ———

    Now for the theory.

    Do doctors understand test results?

    In one session, almost half the group of 160 gynaecologists responded that the woman’s chance of having cancer was nine in ten. Only 21% said that the figure was one in ten — which is the correct answer. That’s a worse result than if the doctors had been answering at random.

    All this is well known. Unfortunately, I couldn’t track down something I read once which devotes and entire chapter to the subject. The remedy is also well known (doctors despair: not available in pill form).

    It’s a maths puzzle many of us would struggle with. That’s because, Gigerenzer says, setting probabilities out as percentages, although standard practice, is confusing. He campaigns for risks to be expressed using numbers of people instead, and if possible diagrams.

    Percentages have a tendency to enter a Heisenstate in the human mind, a Swiss superposition of p and (1-p), where the blade you don’t want hooks your cognitive fingernail first, almost every time. We think that p and (1-p) ought to be so compellingly different as corkscrews, scissors, and nail files. But no, even 0.1 and 0.9 are two almost identical standard blades, so we don’t even notice the swisseroo.

    That’s why I changed this to an event count, denominated as per comparative per sixties, and normalized to excess from par.

    ———

    I was wrong about forgetting. My brain remembered the chapter.

    Levitin on number needed to treat

    This is a little-known statistic that doctors don’t like talking about and pharmaceutical companies like even less.

    For a popular statin: 300.

    Three hundred take the drug, one person gets better. This is not unusual.

    For the same popular statin: 5% experience side-effects (e.g., nausea, muscle pain, blood in stool).

    [*] Note that 100% experience the side-effects if one includes pain in the pocket book.

    Pain in the pocket book: 300 people out of 300
    Pain in the gut/butt: 15 people out of 300
    Gain: 1 person out of 300 (aka just one person out of all the people who showed up for class during the first week of organic chemistry—in which the chemistry professor passes the liposuction collection plate to commence each class)

    [*] Back in 2011 it was USD $165 for a typical 1 month prescription.

    Gain = negative angina, so there is that, but still this is no bouquet of thornless roses.

    The book Levitin references here is his own The Organized Mind (a surprisingly disorganized book, but with some good parts). The chapter on medical decision-making walks through the p / (1-p) minefield using concrete numbers in several medical contexts.

    ———

    Zone start percentage.

    Ask your gynecologist if ZS% is right for you.

  72. Chachi says:

    doritogrande: The Oilers do this to good defensemen with stunning regularity. You want another example of someone who wasn’t good enough to play a Top-6 role for the Oilers, see what Nick Schultz has done in the past two years.

    You mean the Nick Schultz who has been used in Philadelphia as a 3rd pairing defender at evens and plays a bunch on the penalty kill while putting up terrible possession numbers? That Nick Schultz?

  73. oscarmike says:

    JimmyV1965: The Hawks obviously have a good team. No one said they are bad, but other than the Kane line nothing about that line up is scary.They have Kane and Panarin and the rest of the forward crew is meh.

    Hartman-Toews-Panik
    Panarin-Anisimov-Kane
    Hino0stroza-Kero-Hossa
    Desjardins-Schmaltz-Tootoo

    I would rather face this group in the playoffs then many other teams. It certainly doesn’t look like a lineup that should be leading the western conference in points. It just doesn’t.

    JimmyV1965: The Hawks obviously have a good team. No one said they are bad, but other than the Kane line nothing about that line up is scary.They have Kane and Panarin and the rest of the forward crew is meh.

    Hartman-Toews-Panik
    Panarin-Anisimov-Kane
    Hino0stroza-Kero-Hossa
    Desjardins-Schmaltz-Tootoo

    I would rather face this group in the playoffs then many other teams. It certainly doesn’t look like a lineup that should be leading the western conference in points. It just doesn’t.

    What about Keith, Seabrook, Crawford and the leadership of the veteran core. The years of good scouting and developing.
    You don’t think a Blackhawks fan looks at EDM rooster and says that out side of Drai and Mcd the rest of the crew is meh?
    Cause EDM has Hendricks, Pouloit, Kass, Letestu, Drake, Slepy.

    Oilers are better off finishing first in the Pacific and playing a wild card team or ANA.
    ANA- Getzlaf, Perry, Hampus, Frowler, Gibson
    CHI- Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford
    SJS- Palvaski, Coture, Burns, Vlasic, Jones

  74. Chamucks says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Different coach for Petry.

    Also, how many coaches have not played Fayne now? Is that something to be considered?

  75. classict says:

    Chamucks,

    One? He was playing top pair in NJ

  76. SwedishPoster says:

    Filip Berglund with a PP helper in 12:30 of ice time tonight. Played on the 2nd PP unit. He has slowly gotten better as the season rolls along yet has gotten less ice time and even played some games with the U20 team due to guys coming back from injuries. Tonight he got some extra ice since the teams #1D Sebastian Aho was out.
    Still a solid season of developement so far. Six points is pretty great considering the TOI.

  77. Spoils says:

    you can stop reading after the next 5 words – I was playing the EAsportsNHL17 video game and McDavid is two steps faster than 2016. Much better… That’s a nice story and all, but let me add that I was shooting with him, a ton. Get to open ice, fire a shot. Trust your speed, it will become a breakaway.

    I believe McDavid can start scoring in bunches.

    I wonder what has to happen, what the coaches have to say/do to bring about a change.

    If it ain’t broke of course….

  78. New Improved Darkness says:

    I tried to avoid certain nefarious trigger words, but my previous post on this thread wound up in the moderation queue anyway.

    After five minutes AFK, it seems to me that player usage corrections should sum to zero for each team. They really should be unbiased corrections for relative usage.

    This implies that EZ-x/60 should not be calculated relative to parity, but rather to team average EZ-x/60.

    If the whole team is -5 for the season, and everyone on the team is -5 for the whole season (no usage differential) why the heck would we correct anything upwards for any player based on usage?

    Furthermore, one can calculate ZS statistics for the goalie (and perhaps one should). It would not logically be the goalie’s fault (unless he really is tucking the puck into his mitt when he could have fed the puck into a fast break).

    Clearly, for the goalie, it’s not a usage question (he’s out there for the whole game, and most first-stringers get all the hard games across the league). But still, if he’s on a crap squad that can’t earn a fair share of stoppages at the other end, is that his fault or not?

    Mostly not.

  79. Rocknrolla says:

    dustrock:
    Most unusual story this season may be playing Puljujarvi just enough to burn an RFA year and then immediately sending him to the A.

    Interesting thoughts on this…could this be a new strategy with above average prospects?

    Here’s the thinking. They did the same with Leon. Basically by burning a year, and slow playing the prospect, the negative is you lose the year of UFA, but the positive is you get to sign the next contract after only 2 full good years.

    Imagine if Leon was sent back early and effectively had another year comin on ELD. Likely more history of good play and a larger contract. Now he has only 2, and the partial year.

    So by essentially wasting a year of the payers ELD, you can sign a longer tem lower deal earlier. Instead of waiting one more year of potentially amazing play which pushes the price up.

    Question is does it make up for losing the cheap ELD year…if the prospect is elite, I say yes

  80. Chamucks says:

    classict,

    in Fayne’s last year with NJ his most common partner was Greene so yeah that is correct but my problem with that has always been the WOWYS for Fayne. Was being zoomed very much Greene.

  81. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Rocknrolla: Interesting thoughts on this…could this be a new strategy with above average prospects?

    Here’s the thinking.They did the same with Leon.Basically by burning a year, and slow playing the prospect, the negative is you lose the year of UFA, but the positive is you get to sign the next contract after only 2 full good years.

    Imagine if Leon was sent back early and effectively had another year comin on ELD.Likely more history of good play and a larger contract. Now he has only 2, and the partial year.

    So by essentially wasting a year of the payers ELD, you can sign a longer tem lower deal earlier.Instead of waiting one more year of potentially amazing play which pushes the price up.

    Question is does it make up for losing the cheap ELD year…if the prospect is elite, I say yes

    You would be incorrect. Leon was sent down at 39 games. Therefore he burned a year of his ELC, but not a year of RFA status. With Puljujarvi they kept him up for 40+ games, therefore burning not just a year of the ELC but a year of RFA control.

    It is a very strange decision, one that makes you think there must have been a handshake agreement in place for them to do that in order to entice JP to come to North America this year instead of staying another year in Finland.

  82. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Chamucks:
    classict,

    in Fayne’s last year with NJ his most common partner was Greene so yeah that is correct but my problem with that has always been the WOWYS for Fayne. Was being zoomed very much Greene.

    Yes,which is why I was saying that he does well if 2nd/3rd pair, partnered with a puck-mover. I was not claiming he was worthy of top pairing or big minutes. Yet he came to Edmonton and found himself in the doghouse and never got a chance to recover.

    I am not saying he has lived up to his current salary. Nor am I saying he has played well. The truth is somewhere in between and I think if he had been deployed correctly he would have been fine in the Gryba role or even a bit higher up in the order, occasionally playing 2nd pair. To say he should have been signed here for ($1.2M per) which is 1/3 of his contract, per some posters is hindsight at its finest.

  83. rickithebear says:

    Someone asked who the best offensive Dman was

    So I took a simplified look at at top 60 EVP/60 Dmen.

    Depends on how you look at it.

    Most offensive Dmen score like #10 forwards (4th line) so it is not a great offensive impact.

    the primary role of a dman is to establish a low EVGA/60 to allows as many forwards to generate .25-.30 EVGF/60 more than that base EVGA/60 to be wild card competitive.

    Offensive Dmen mostly abandon the defensive of the path to their own net to chase offence. with more than half ending up with bottom 60 HD shot/60 rates and bottom 90 EVGA/60.

    As an example Barrie 3.34 EVGA/60 needs forwards that can generate 3.65 EVGF/60 to have a chance at a wild card playoff spot.
    9 of 390 forwards can generate that.
    Barrie is what I refer to as a playoff killer.

    you want top pair offence results from top pair Defence results.
    groups 1-4

    1. Top 30 EVp/60 & Top 30 EVGA/60
    Niskanen
    #5 EVP/60 D
    #27 EVGA/60 D
    N. Schmidt
    #27 EVP/60
    #6 EVGA/60
    Suter
    #25 EVp/60
    #29 EVGA/60
    C. Wideman
    #22 EVp/60
    #30 EVGA/60

    2. top 60 EVP/60 & top 30 EVGA/60
    Forbort
    #43 EVP/60
    #12 EVGA/60
    Franson
    #55 EVP/60
    #30 EVGA/60
    Orpik
    #56 EVP/60
    #7 EVGA/60
    Sekera
    #59 EVP/60
    #24 EVGA/60
    Spurgeon
    #33 EVP/60
    #19 EVGA/60

    3. Top 30 EVP/60 & top 60 EVGA/60
    Burns
    #1 EVP/60
    #54 EVGA/60
    Martin
    #12 EVP/60
    #45 EVGA/60
    Seidenberg
    #19 EVP/60
    #55 EVGA/60

    4. Top 60 EVP/60 & top 60 EVGA/60
    Benning
    #53 EVP/60 D
    #40 EVGA/60 D
    Brodin
    #45 EVP/60
    #50 EVGA/60
    EKholm
    #60 EVP/60 D
    #39 EVGA/60
    Jones
    #33 EVp/60
    #57 EVGA/60
    Krug
    #49 EVP/60
    #58 EVGA/60
    Orlov
    #32 EVP/60
    #51 EVGA/60
    Savard
    #42 EVP/60
    #37 EVGA/60

    ——————————————- Above are the Dmen who have cup caliber Defence while being a top pairing Ofensive Dman.
    there are 19 dmen top 60/60

    can be hidden defensively if you want there offence.
    groups 5-6

    5. Top 30 EVP/60 & top 90 EVGA/60
    Boychuk
    #30 EVP/60
    #84 EVGA/60
    Carlson
    #17 EVP/60
    #63 EVGA/60
    Cole
    #29 EVP/60
    #64 EVGA/60
    Edmundson
    #10 EVP/60
    #69 EVGA/60
    Hunwick
    #18 EVP/60
    #79 EVGA/60
    Karlsson
    #4 EVP/60
    #74 EVGA/60
    Markov
    #3 EVP/60
    #70 EVGA/60
    J. Schultz
    #13 EVP/60
    #82 EVGA/60

    6. Top 60 EVP/60 & top 90 EVGA/60
    Ellis
    #48 EVP/60
    #67 EVGA/60
    Oullett
    #44 EVP/60
    #81 EVGA/60

    ————————————– Above Dmen, if they ae facing 1st/2nd comp, can be dropped down to sheltered 3rd comp and achieve cup caliber Defence with top pairing EVGA results.
    Another 10 Top 60/90

    Below are the start of non competitive defensive trouble
    groups 7-8

    7. Top 30 EVP/60 & bottom 90 EVGA/60
    Hedman
    #11 EVp/60
    #107 EVGA/60
    Holden
    #7 EVP/60
    #94 EVGA/60
    A. Mcdonald
    #28 EVp/60
    #103 EVGA/60
    Petry
    #14 EVP/60
    #113 EVGA/60
    Postma
    #8 EVP/60
    #95 EVGA/60
    Provorov
    #20 EVP/60
    #118 EVGA/60

    8. Top 60 EVP/60 & Bottom 90 EVGA/60
    Demers
    #54 EVP/60
    #114 EVGA/60
    Parayko
    #36 EVP/60
    #109 EVGA/60
    Pietrangelo
    #58 EVP/60
    #120 EVGA/60
    Quincey
    #60 EVP/60
    #110 EVGA/60
    Shattenkirk
    #50 EVP/60
    #117 EVGA/60
    Subban
    #46 EVP/60
    #108 EVGA/60

    Defence that drags down a teamto non playoff level.
    groups 9-10

    9. Top 30 EVP/60 & Bottom 60 EVGA/60
    Byfuglien
    #21 EVP/60
    #160 EVGA/60
    M. Green
    #9 EVP/60
    #132 EVGA/60
    Hamilton
    #2 EVP/60
    #149 EVGA/60
    Nesterov
    #26 EVP/60
    #131 EVGA/60
    Skjei
    #6 EVP/60
    #141 EVGA/60

    10. Top 60 EVP/60 & Bottom 60 EVGA/60
    Chychrun
    #34 EVP/60
    #133 EVGA/60
    Daley
    #59 EVP?60
    #150
    J. Faulk CAR
    #35 EVP/60
    #140 EVGA/60
    Gardiner
    #47 EVP/60
    #137 EVGA/60
    Severson
    #37 EVP/60
    #124 EVGA/60

    Below are playoff killers.
    groups 11-14

    11. Top 30 EVp/60 & Bottom 30 EVGA/60
    Delzotto
    #24 EVP/60
    #165 EVGA/60
    Trouba
    #16 EVp/60
    #172 EVGA/60

    12. top 60 EVP/60 & Bottom 30 EVGA/60
    Gudas
    #57 EVP/60
    #158 EVGA/60
    Letang
    #38 EVP/60
    #168 EVGA/60
    Reilly
    #51 EVP/60
    #166 EVGA/60
    Striet
    #39 EVp/60
    #176 EVGA/60
    Weircoch
    #41 EVP/60
    #163 EVGA/60

    13. Top 30 EVP/60 & #7 D EVGA/60
    Barrie
    #15 D 1.16 EVP/60
    #189 D 3.34 EVGA/60
    Hamonic
    #23 EVP/60
    #184 EVGA/60

    14. Top 30 EVP/60 & #7 D EVGA/60
    J. Moore
    #40 EVP/60
    #183 EVGA/60
    Theodore
    #52 EVp/60
    #185 EVGA/60

    Probably have to say Niskanen!

  84. JimmyV1965 says:

    oscarmike:
    JimmyV1965: The Hawks obviously have a good team. No one said they are bad, but other than the Kane line nothing about that line up is scary.They have Kane and Panarin and the rest of the forward crew is meh.

    Hartman-Toews-Panik
    Panarin-Anisimov-Kane
    Hino0stroza-Kero-Hossa
    Desjardins-Schmaltz-Tootoo

    I would rather face this group in the playoffs then many other teams. It certainly doesn’t look like a lineup that should be leading the western conference in points. It just doesn’t.

    JimmyV1965: The Hawks obviously have a good team. No one said they are bad, but other than the Kane line nothing about that line up is scary.They have Kane and Panarin and the rest of the forward crew is meh.

    Hartman-Toews-Panik
    Panarin-Anisimov-Kane
    Hino0stroza-Kero-Hossa
    Desjardins-Schmaltz-Tootoo

    I would rather face this group in the playoffs then many other teams. It certainly doesn’t look like a lineup that should be leading the western conference in points. It just doesn’t.

    What about Keith, Seabrook, Crawford and the leadership of theveteran core. The years of good scouting and developing.
    You don’t think a Blackhawks fan looks at EDM rooster and says that out side of Drai and Mcd the rest of the crew is meh?
    Cause EDM has Hendricks, Pouloit, Kass, Letestu, Drake, Slepy.

    Oilers are better off finishing first in the Pacific and playing a wild card team or ANA.
    ANA- Getzlaf, Perry, Hampus, Frowler, Gibson
    CHI- Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford
    SJS- Palvaski, Coture, Burns, Vlasic, Jones

    I love this. I say I would rather play the Hawks than many other teams and then you move the goalposts and make it into a comparison between our lineups. Let me be very clear. THE HAWKS TODAY ARE BETTER THAN THE OILERS. Who I don’t think they are better than are the Ducks and Sharks and the Preds and the Wild. Why? BECAUSE THEY HAVE ZERO DEPTH. The top of the Hawks lineup both forward and defence is amongst the best in the league. Their bottom eight forwards and bottom three dmen are not nearly as good as the the other league leaders, including the Oilers.

  85. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    rickithebear,

    Really great info and makes a lot of sense. Is your time period for this year only? Might it be helpful to include the two years before this season as well, to establish some consistency (while understanding that some young players we only have this year or this year and last year to compare with?)

    Thanks mr. thebear.

  86. Chamucks says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I was replying to Classict who said he was top pair in NJ and seemed to allude to that being a plus for Fayne.

  87. Woodguy says:

    WOODGUY’S ULTIMATE NONE MORE BLACK BOX POWER RANKINGS v2.21

    ALL CATEGORIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER SO NO ONE ASKS WHY TEAM “X” IS 3 SPOTS ABOVE TEAM “Y”

    BOS
    CBJ
    PIT – ELITE
    SJS
    WSH

    ANA
    CAR
    CGY
    EDM
    LAK
    MIN – GOOD
    MTL
    NSH
    NYI
    TOR

    BUF
    CHI
    DAL
    FLA
    NYR
    OTT
    PHI – MEH-OK
    STL
    TBY
    VAN
    WPG

    ARI
    DET – NO SIR, NOT GOOD.
    NJD

    COL – WRETCHED

  88. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Chamucks,

    Yes, got you. Just saying Fayne is probably something in between a healthy scratch and a top pair. I think he would be fine playing #4 or #5 D on a team that had some good puck-movers who could be paired with him and help his lack of footspeed. Positionally he is sound and he knows how to think the game well. He just needs a partner with mobility and playmaking ability.

    I think the Oilers signed him at the time to a fair market deal for what he brought. And then they proceeded to miscast him and now he isn’t worth a dime. But I think a team that signs him for a year at $1m will find a nice value player there.

  89. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy:
    WOODGUY’S ULTIMATE NONE MORE BLACK BOX POWER RANKINGS v2.21

    ALL CATEGORIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER SONO ONE ASKS WHY TEAM “X” IS 3 SPOTS ABOVE TEAM “Y”

    BOS
    CBJ
    PIT – ELITE
    SJS
    WSH

    ANA
    CAR
    CGY
    EDM
    LAK
    MIN – GOOD
    MTL
    NSH
    NYI
    TOR

    BUF
    CHI
    DAL
    FLA
    NYR
    OTT
    PHI– MEH-OK
    STL
    TBY
    VAN
    WPG

    ARI
    DET – NO SIR, NOT GOOD.
    NJD

    COL – WRETCHED

    So only one elite team in the West. That’s why I think there’s a chance to have a decent playoffs. The key is to have San Jose win the division and for the Oilers to face Anaheim. Home ice vs. the Ducks would be nice. That’s my goal, 2nd in the Pacific.

  90. sliderule says:

    Seeing as I have been one of the lonely voices on zone starts I figure I better get in my two bits worth.

    Oiler D 2016-17

    Corsi. Zpercent
    Fayne. 56.1. 72.7 Only 4 gms but as LT favorite had to put in
    Benning 55.1. 60.7
    Gryba 53.9. 52.3
    Nurse. 52.1. 55.3
    Klefbom 51.6. 51.3
    Sekera. 50.5. 50.7
    Larsson. 50.1. 47.1
    Davidson. 50. 54
    Russell 46.5. 47.9

    You will notice how closely the zone start percentage mirrors the Corsi.
    The only big exception is Davey which may be injury related and one of reasons ice time is down.
    I await the barrage😄

  91. classict says:

    Chamucks:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I was replying to Classict who said he was top pair in NJ and seemed to allude to that being a plus for Fayne.

    Nope it had nothing to do with whether Fayne was/is good or not. It was simply answering the question you asked “Also, how many coaches have not played Fayne now?” Which (to me) sounded like you were implying lots of coaches haven’t trusted him.

  92. Oddspell says:

    Woodguy,

    To sort of rehash my previous question, how does this new data compare to previous years data?

  93. classict says:

    rickithebear,

    Good list Ricki, thanks. Though it really really favors the guys playing in front of good goalies. I think something like xGA/60 might be a more fair representation.

  94. Rocknrolla says:

    JDï™: used

    Agreed….liked that show. The young lead singer was Jagger’s son as well in case you didn’t know. It was a great window into late 60s NYC music scene from a drug addict record company execs perspective.

  95. frjohnk says:

    classict: Though it really really favors the guys playing in front of good goalies

    yup.

    classict: I think something like xGA/60 might be a more fair representation.

    yup.

    Maybe Ricki you could use xGA/60 instead of EVGA.

  96. frjohnk says:

    30 thoughts are out.
    Arizona asking for the moon for their UFA’s.

    “-Word is Arizona’s initial ask from Montreal for Martin Hanzal was Michael McCarron and two draft picks — one a first-rounder, the other conditional.”

  97. rickithebear says:

    Chamucks:
    classict,

    in Fayne’s last year with NJ his most common partner was Greene so yeah that is correct but my problem with that has always been the WOWYS for Fayne. Was being zoomed very much Greene.

    one of the things you look for in trending is repeatability.

    Facing 1st comp
    Klefbom-Fayne better than 2/3 rd games elite HD d play.
    fayne maintained his shot rates from NJ.

    facing 1st comp
    Sekera-Fayne better than 2/3rd above average games.
    Faynes Shot rates went up propotional to the reduction of Sekera’s career 1st comp SA rates.

  98. JDï™ says:

    frjohnk: Arizona asking for the moon for their UFA’s.

    Very few sellers, and any buyer who wants to be in ahead of the deadline frenzy will have to pay a premium for that too.

    If that’s their ask, the final price will undoubtedly be lower. Should make for an interesting deadline, either way.

  99. JDï™ says:

    Rocknrolla: The young lead singer was Jagger’s son

    Didn’t know that.

    I really liked all the behind the scenes stuff they uncovered as well. By about episode 3, they had shown payola, off-the-books printing runs, mob involvement, and the theft of royalties from black writers.

    It was like the Sopranos of the record biz, and I thought the episodes centered around famous performers back then were done very well too. I really appreciated the music behind the show.

    I really hope another media company decides to pick it up.

  100. Ducey says:

    classict: Nope it had nothing to do with whether Fayne was/is good or not. It was simply answering the question you asked “Also, how many coaches have not played Fayne now?” Which (to me) sounded like you were implying lots of coaches haven’t trusted him.

    Fayne was a fancy stats darling when the Oilers signed him.

    Personally, I think he would be playing for the Oilers if he was more physical.

  101. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: yup.

    yup.

    Maybe Ricki you could use xGA/60 instead of EVGA.

    No you have to parse out the HD affect and Partner Wowy!
    you lazy B………ds!

    The thing is you have to have taken the Comp/Team/Zs for each dman’s situation.
    then established a xGF/60 xGA/60; xGD/60 look at the performance relative to mean for that situation.

    So I said a simple look!

    might want to look at Save% of the goalie.
    It can be a reflection of the ratio of Open hole to total shots.
    though you might wan to look at
    LD Closed shots
    Hd closed shots
    LD open shots
    HD open shots.

    Tracking training has affected the LD open shot success rates.

    Chicken or Egg?

  102. frjohnk says:

    JDï™: Very few sellers, and any buyer who wants to be in ahead of the deadline frenzy will have to pay a premium for that too.

    If that’s their ask, the final price will undoubtedly be lower. Should make for an interesting deadline, either way.

    Right now, other than Arizona and Colorado, everyone believes they have a shot to make the playoffs, so only those two teams are sellers.

    Within the next 6 weeks, there will be teams falling out.

    In the West, Chicago, Minnesota, Anaheim, San Jose, and Edmonton ( YUP!!!) are almost locks
    Nashville is close to that group of 5.
    If St Louis fixes their goaltending that is 7 of the 8 playoff spots taken.

    1 of LA, Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver and Dallas fight for the last playoff spot. Im expecting Winnipeg, Vancouver and Dallas to fall away and end up being sellers.

    As for the East, nobody is out yet.

  103. hunter1909 says:

    JDï™: Well he didn’t write Angus’ solo parts, and really, nobody would pay to see a guy standing in the back, tapping his foot, and playing rhythm guitar. As critical as he was to the band, he needed Angus and Bon just as much as they needed him.

    Phil Rudd probably could have been replaced with Pete Best.

    Angus was pretty cool at the beginning – he’d climb on top of balconies while playing which is insane which makes him special. Feel free to help me think clearly anytime.

    Bon was the best – probably best R+R front man of all time imo.

  104. hunter1909 says:

    JDï™: As critical as he was to the band, he needed Angus and Bon just as much as they needed him.

    …which is why they call it a “band”.

    The bass player and drummer won the “saved from obscurity” lottery, lol.

  105. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    hunter1909:

    Bon was the best – probably best R+R front man of all time imo.

    With all due respect to Bon, most of the pros (rightly) pick Freddy Mercury for that distinction.

  106. JDï™ says:

    hunter1909: which is why they call it a “band”.

    Which is contrary to your original comment that it was 100% Malcolm.

    I suggested that Malcolm was closer to the middle…

  107. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    WOODGUY’S ULTIMATE NONE MORE BLACK BOX POWER RANKINGS v2.21

    ALL CATEGORIES IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER SONO ONE ASKS WHY TEAM “X” IS 3 SPOTS ABOVE TEAM “Y”

    BOS
    CBJ
    PIT – ELITE
    SJS
    WSH

    ANA
    CAR
    CGY
    EDM
    LAK
    MIN – GOOD
    MTL
    NSH
    NYI
    TOR

    BUF
    CHI
    DAL
    FLA
    NYR
    OTT
    PHI– MEH-OK
    STL
    TBY
    VAN
    WPG

    ARI
    DET – NO SIR, NOT GOOD.
    NJD

    COL – WRETCHED

    I’d put CGY in the MEH. They look more like WPG and VAN to me.

    VCR has 50 pts in 48 games and is -19
    WPG has 48 pts in 50 games and is -12
    CGY has 51 pts in 50 games and is -12

  108. JDï™ says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: pick Freddy Mercury for that distinction.

    A case can be made for a lot of other singers, like Jagger and the guy who stood in front of John Bonham.

    Scott wasn’t nearly as accomplished a singer as Mercury or Plant, and not nearly as engaging as Jagger, but he had a soulful voice and everything came from the heart with him. And he could roll a pair of socks like nobody else.

  109. JDï™ says:

    Sorry Pouz.

  110. hunter1909 says:

    JDï™: Scott wasn’t nearly as accomplished a singer as Mercury or Plant, and not nearly as engaging as Jagger, but he had a soulful voice and everything came from the heart with him.

    He died before he was destroyed.

    Total Rock and Roll death, which in classical R+R theory beats down 70 year old lead singers, performing in Coca-Cola Microsoft Nestle environments every day of the week.

  111. hunter1909 says:

    JDï™: Which is contrary to your original comment that it was 100% Malcolm.

    This is why I rarely try to talk music online with people.

    Music and knowing it was never a competition for me.

    I say the MUSIC was 100% Malcolm, viz them ever standing a cat’s chance in hell of making it to the top like they did.

    Obviously Bon has his share, Angus no slouch himself has his, and the rest of the band, like Fayne, I have zero interest in knowing about.

    Apologies for my being as clear as mud.

  112. hunter1909 says:

    Looking forward to two of my fave teams that wear red play later today. Calgary so remind me of 2010. Their fans are crying the same lament.

  113. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: With all due respect to Bon, most of the pros (rightly) pick Freddy Mercury for that distinction.

    There’s no ‘best’ in music. All subjective based on personal taste.

    Loved Mercury as a singer. Watching him live wearing nothing but a pair of bicycle shorts. Not so much.

  114. JDï™ says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I’ll guess that you’re not a fan of Mr Marcaille then?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glKyBYgVqIA

  115. kooler says:

    So did that Flames kid get a suspension for the slew foot last night….apparently he’s good at it.

    http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/matthew-tkachuk-earns-two-game-suspension-for-slew-foot/

  116. Doug McLachlan says:

    Hi LT,

    Sorry to see that a favourite of yours has been traded and not to the Oilers – Tommy Wingles is off to Ottawa (with the Sharks apparently retaining 30% of the salary).

    http://www.tsn.ca/senators-acquire-wingels-from-sharks-1.657131

  117. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear,

    If you use EVGA in your ranking of Dmen, you are going to get a bunch of Dmen who play in front of a good/great goalie. So this tells us nothing about whether or not the Dman is actually good at defending/limiting shots. Just tells us that this Dman plays in front of a good/great goalie. I bet in your list you have a bunch of Dmen from the Capitals and Wild.

    Conversely, a bad goalie will blow up many Dmens EVGA’s numbers. Again, this does not tell whether the Dman is good or bad at defending/limiting shots. It just tells me that the DMan plays in front of a shitty goalie.

    Expected goals against is a better stat to measure Dmen ( and even this has limitations) than EVGA or even HDSCA. I used to use HDSCA all the time, and I still do from time to time, but its yesterdays stat. HDSCA only measures scoring chances from the slot, or a better term for this is corsi attempts from the slot. Not all HDSCA end up a shot on net. Depending on the team, its about a 70% success rate of a corsi attempt from the slot hitting the net.

    Expected goals against/60 assigns a goal expectancy to shots allowed. This is a better representation of how to value a Dman as it measures what a Dman allows on his net. EVGA may have some value for valuing a Dman but its pretty low on the totem pole.

  118. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: There’s no ‘best’ in music. All subjective based on personal taste.

    If I was any smarter I’d have said this.

    The only problem is, “B” grade music students(many who rate themselves as “A” and higher) have learned how to twist this kind of statement around in a way that gives them an obtuse “advantage”. Seen this all the time, back in the day. Probably this is found in many other areas of life.

  119. classict says:

    frjohnk,

    I think he might know (agree with some of) this, but is calling us lazy bastards for not doing it ourselves 😉

  120. rickithebear says:

    classict:
    frjohnk,

    I think he might know (agree with some of) this, but is calling us lazy bastards for not doing it ourselves

    It is amazing what trending you can recognize by going thru the process in seasonal intervals as you follow the team!

    You just notice sh… uh er stuff……..
    yeah!

  121. Georges says:

    frjohnk:
    rickithebear,

    If you use EVGA in your ranking of Dmen, you are going to get a bunch of Dmen who play in front of a good/great goalie.So this tells us nothing about whether or not the Dman is actually good at defending/limiting shots.Just tells us that this Dman plays in front of a good/great goalie.I bet in your list you have a bunch of Dmen from the Capitals and Wild.

    Conversely, a bad goalie will blow up many Dmens EVGA’s numbers.Again, this does not tell whether the Dman is good or bad at defending/limiting shots.It just tells me that the DMan plays in front of a shitty goalie.

    Expected goals against is a better stat to measure Dmen ( and even this has limitations) than EVGA or even HDSCA. I used to use HDSCA all the time, and I still do from time to time, but its yesterdays stat.HDSCA only measures scoring chances from the slot, or a better term for this is corsi attempts from the slot.Not all HDSCA end up a shot on net. Depending on the team, its about a 70% success rate of a corsi attempt from the slot hitting the net.

    Expected goals against/60 assigns a goal expectancy to shots allowed.This is a better representation of how to value a Dman as it measures what a Dman allows on his net.EVGA may have some value for valuing a Dman but its pretty low on the totem pole.

    Valuing defensemen is tough. There are some defensemen who cycle in through a season, underperform (give up too much) and don’t get a lot of minutes. Then you have the regulars who get first, second, or third pairing minutes.

    xGA60 has its limitations. I think Emmanuel Perry publishes the xGA numbers calculated by his model rather than calculating xGA based on the mix of shots allowed and the average save percentage across the league for different types of shots. The latter way is more transparent and more useful in my opinion. Also, I think xGA60 may be more about the team than the individual because defense is a team concept first.

    When you look at xGA60 across different total TOI categories for defensemen, you see some but not a lot of variation. So, as groups, first pairing, second pairing, and even third pairing defensemen aren’t that different in the shot mix they’re allowing. Or shot volume either because they’re not that different on CA60 or SA60.

    And defensemen in different TOI categories don’t seem to affect shooting or save percentages the way that forwards do.

    The one meaningful difference (and it’s not huge) is on the stats at the other end of the ice. CF60, FF60, SF60. The explanation I can come up with is that coaches value defensemen who do a better job of keeping the play in the other end and generating more opportunities against the opposition when they’re on the ice. In every thing else, the average first pairing, second pairing, and third pairing defensemen look like the average defensemen.

    Of course, this line of thinking doesn’t speak to individual performances. Some guys might have stellar or horrible numbers that stand out. I’m just making an observation on groups of defensemen. When you look at how coaches allocate TOI to forwards, you see a rational and consistent pattern. Forwards with more ice time have better stats; forwards with better stats get more ice time. That pattern doesn’t hold for defensemen and where it does, the edges are slight.

    So, when LT uses CF% to evaluate defensemen (I don’t think he needs to use CF%Rel), I think he’s pretty close. CF% includes CF60 and CF60 seems to separate defensemen.

  122. Georges says:

    Georges,

    Actually, I think I’d start with GF% and work back from there. GF% would tell me whether I’m winning or losing when this player is on the ice. I’d then use the other stats to try to figure out why.

  123. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Seeing as I have been one of the lonely voices on zone startsI figure I better get in my two bits worth.

    Oiler D 2016-17

    Corsi.Zpercent
    Fayne.56.1.72.7 Only 4 gmsbutas LT favorite had to put in
    Benning55.1.60.7
    Gryba 53.9.52.3
    Nurse.52.1.55.3
    Klefbom 51.6.51.3
    Sekera. 50.5.50.7
    Larsson. 50.1. 47.1
    Davidson. 50. 54
    Russell 46.5. 47.9

    You will notice how closelythe zone start percentage mirrorsthe Corsi.
    The only big exception is Davey which may be injury related and one of reasons ice time is down.
    I await the barrage

    One of the reasons that CF% tends to follow zone starts is because many of those starts are “earned” starts and not new shifts.

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    That’s why they aren’t used much anymore except when they are extreme (like Larsson last year)

  124. Woodguy says:

    Oddspell:
    Woodguy,

    To sort of rehash my previous question, how does this new data compare to previous years data?

    I answered your original question.

    This is a tweaked version.

    I’d have to run every season again.

    I might, but not any time soon.

  125. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: So only one elite team in the West. That’s why I think there’s a chance to have a decent playoffs. The key is to have San Jose win the division and for the Oilers to face Anaheim. Home ice vs. the Ducks would be nice. That’s my goal, 2nd in the Pacific.

    Agreed

  126. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: No you have to parse out the HD affect and Partner Wowy!
    you lazy B………ds!

    The thing is you have to have taken the Comp/Team/Zs for each dman’s situation.
    then established a xGF/60xGA/60; xGD/60 look at the performance relative to mean for that situation.

    So I said a simple look!

    might want to look at Save% of the goalie.
    It can be a reflection of the ratio of Open hole to total shots.
    though you might wan to look at
    LD Closed shots
    Hd closed shots
    LD open shots
    HD open shots.

    Tracking training has affected the LD open shot success rates.

    Chicken or Egg?

    Chicken

  127. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Hi LT,

    Sorry to see that a favourite of yours has been traded and not to the Oilers – Tommy Wingles is off to Ottawa (with the Sharks apparently retaining 30% of the salary).

    http://www.tsn.ca/senators-acquire-wingels-from-sharks-1.657131

    Bah! He was not having a good season, and the Oilers are drunk with 4liners, but I like him all the same. Hope he does well in Ottawa.

  128. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: Hope he does well in Ottawa.

    Wilson was probably just stocking up on former Oilers before the 2 game series against us. I wish Zack Stortini all the best this NHL/AHL season.

  129. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: I’d put CGY in the MEH. They look more like WPG and VAN to me.

    VCR has 50 pts in 48 games and is -19
    WPG has 48 pts in 50 games and is -12
    CGY has 51 pts in 50 games and is -12

    This list only uses starting goalies.

    Johnson’s numbers boost them.

    If I only used Elliott they be meh.

    They’re not a bad team if they get good goalering and a better bottom 3 Dmen.

    Brodie was hot garbage to start the year and playing with Wideman hurts

  130. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    rickithebear,

    If you use EVGA in your ranking of Dmen, you are going to get a bunch of Dmen who play in front of a good/great goalie.So this tells us nothing about whether or not the Dman is actually good at defending/limiting shots.Just tells us that this Dman plays in front of a good/great goalie.I bet in your list you have a bunch of Dmen from the Capitals and Wild.

    Conversely, a bad goalie will blow up many Dmens EVGA’s numbers.Again, this does not tell whether the Dman is good or bad at defending/limiting shots.It just tells me that the DMan plays in front of a shitty goalie.

    Expected goals against is a better stat to measure Dmen ( and even this has limitations) than EVGA or even HDSCA. I used to use HDSCA all the time, and I still do from time to time, but its yesterdays stat.HDSCA only measures scoring chances from the slot, or a better term for this is corsi attempts from the slot.Not all HDSCA end up a shot on net. Depending on the team, its about a 70% success rate of a corsi attempt from the slot hitting the net.

    Expected goals against/60 assigns a goal expectancy to shots allowed.This is a better representation of how to value a Dman as it measures what a Dman allows on his net.EVGA may have some value for valuing a Dman but its pretty low on the totem pole.

    I’ve been asking Mr. The Bear not to use goals against to evaluate Dmen for 5+ years.

    Gordspeed sir.

  131. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I’ve been asking Mr. The Bear not to use goals against to evaluate Dmen for 5+ years.

    Gordspeed sir.

    If you only had something resembling endurance.

  132. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: If you only had something resembling endurance.

    I know.

    I’m like a goldfish that way.

  133. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909 Potential Playoff Winner:

    Montreal Canadiens. Adding Weber has done miracles for their poise. Great goaltending(forever), excellent heads up everyone wide awake style, when compared to the sleepy Chinook team.

    They’re playing Calgary right now. Check it out. Flames getting whored, and Petry’s maybe going to win that cup. He’s got a good point shot for another MacT Oilers reject.

    Thank you MacT. Thank you, and Mister Kevin, for McDavid.

  134. hunter1909 says:

    Montreal, Washington, Pittsburgh, the NYR means the East is going to be a dogfight next playoffs.

    Oilers, once McDavid matures will be prohibitive faves to reach the finals for 10 years straight in the new “sad sack” Western Conference.

  135. hunter1909 says:

    PS: Petry has a very good shot. Johnny Hockey is useless lately. He makes Eberle seem like Rocket Richard tonight.

  136. Oddspell says:

    Woodguy,

    No worries, thanks!

  137. Rocknrolla says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Rockn

    Thanks for the clarification….so Jesse has one year of RFA missing.

    But wouldn’t this still make sense as accelerating the ELC to get the first deal done a year earlier? Agree that you are now buying different amount of UFA years.

    But would you have an easier time negotiating if the prospect went 20, 50, 55 for points rather than 50, 55, 70?

    So maybe that’s the strategy…burn that first year for elites.

  138. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909 Potential Playoff Winner:

    Montreal Canadiens. Adding Weber has done miracles for their poise. Great goaltending(forever), excellent heads up everyone wide awake style, when compared to the sleepy Chinook team.

    They’re playing Calgary right now. Check it out. Flames getting whored, and Petry’s maybe going to win that cup. He’s got a good point shot for another MacT Oilers reject.

    Thank you MacT. Thank you, and Mister Kevin, for McDavid.

    Poise!!

    Drinkl!!

  139. sliderule says:

    Woodguy: One of the reasons that CF% tends to follow zone starts is because many of those starts are “earned” starts and not new shifts.

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    That’s why they aren’t used much anymore except when they are extreme (like Larsson last year)

    I have read that failed assessment that basically says that the majority of zone starts are earned.

    This would pass the test if coaches couldn’t make line changes .

    Of course coaches can make changes and do so to put out best defensive players in own zone and avoid putting weaker players .

    In the offensive zone they put out players who can score and perhaps protect them if they are weak defensively.

    I think you have to agree this is kind of page one of the coaching manual.

    That study by Cane that says players by their play are responsible for their zone starts doesn’t pass logic .

  140. Professor Q says:

    kooler:
    So did that Flames kid get a suspension for the slew foot last night….apparently he’s good at it.

    http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/matthew-tkachuk-earns-two-game-suspension-for-slew-foot/

    I don’t understand how he’s escaped punishment for everything. He’s gotten punished in Junior for it yet gets away with things that no rookie really would in the NHL, let alone a veteran.

  141. Jaxon says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    For JAXON on Kyle Wood. I did some digging last night:

    Kyle Wood at Evens:
    2G-8A
    Kyle Wood on the PP:
    6G-14A
    Needs primo PP minutes to put up the numbers that he does. Will he get that at the NHL level?

    Thanks for that. Will temper my enthusiasm, at least somewhat. Still think he’s worth some assets. And maybe this info makes him both more available and more affordable.

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