G50 2016-17 OILERS AT DUCKS

The Edmonton Oilers are enjoying a strong season, and have passed several teams year over year. No one I know is suggesting the club belongs at the elite level, and few are suggesting Edmonton will make the final four. Could the Oilers win a playoff round? As it stands now, the team is likely to face a California team in the first round, and will face the top two candidates in the next 48 hours. What are reasonable expectations? That my friends is a moving target.

SLOOP JOHN B, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 7-3-1, goal differential +4
  • Oilers after 49, 2015-16: 19-25-5, goal differential -28
  • Oilers after 49, 2016-17: 26-15-8, goal differential +14

The Oilers lost G50 a year ago (4-1) and reached the 50 game mark with a total of 43 points. If Edmonton wins tonight, the club will reach G50 with 62 points, representing a substantial year over year improvement. If the Oilers continue along their current winning path, 100 points and 44 wins are within reach. February is a big mountain, and February starts tonight.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • On the road to: Columbus, Boston, New Jersey, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-1) (Actual: 2-2-0)
  • At home to: San Jose, New Jersey, Calgary, Arizona, Florida, Nashville (Expected Result: 3-1-2) (Actual: 4-1-1)
  • On the road to: Calgary, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected Result: 2-1-0) (So Far: 1-0-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected Result: 0-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-3, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current Results: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games

We agreed (we SO did NOT agree) that 17 points was reasonable, and Edmonton needs just a win and a tie in the final three games to reach the peak.

PIKES PEAK

The Calgary Flames have 31 games left in the season, and it is going to be extremely difficult for them to reach 95 points. That is my estimate, it may in fact take fewer points to make the postseason this year. I can tell you the Oilers have a 98.9 percent chance of making the postseason according to one site, and that same site says the Flames are at less than 25 percent to play extra games.

BUTCH TRUCKS

Passed away. RIP. Here is on stage September 23, 1970.

OILERS PAIRINGS, 2016-17

  • The column on the left is Woodmoney, the rest is Corsica.Hockey. By the way, we are possibly two weeks from WoodMoney going live. Both G and Darcy will be appearing on Jimmy Kimmel, Jimmy Fallon, Seth Meyers, Conan O’Brien, Stephen Colbert and Mr. Dressup to promote it. I am going to try to get both men on my show as well, but don’t tell them.
  • Sekera—Benning is a helluva combination. Corsi tells is it is a better duo than Sekera—Russell, and both combinations have had 200 minutes (or more). NHL coaching staffs rarely run rookies high, especially those without pedigree, but the numbers suggest it would be wise in this case. We could give a lot of credit to Sekera, and that is correct, but the rookie clearly has a positive impact as well. Overlooked part of this season’s success.
  • Klefbom—Larsson play almost six minutes a night against elite competition, and still manage to get their possession number over 50 percent. Given their lack of familiarity with each other at the beginning of the season, and the strong showing in recent games, I think this pairing may be a big part of the team beginning this fall. Or right now.
  • Nurse—Gryba and Davidson—Gryba are about the same success rate, I think the Oilers may tweak the third pairing depending on Nurse’s return. Other than that, unless a puck mover comes available, I am uncertain how much movement we see in aid of the blue.
  • There is at least a chance Brandon Davidson gets moved, not necessarily at the deadline but possibly before the expansion draft.

FORWARD LINES, 2016-17

  • The surprise for me in this graph (Corsica.hockey) is how few minutes some of these combinations have played. I do think three lines are obvious.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl have played 165 minutes together and the possession plus scoring rates are quality. Keep them together, chemistry is a thing.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle is almost 50 percent in possession and scoring 2.64/60 at 5×5. I think there is room for this trio to grow in the second half, it is reasonable to expect it.
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian works well and has from the start. That pass from Kassian to Letestu the other night is insanity for a 4line.
  • The fact there is no 3line representation here, and the line in the sand was 60 minutes, tells us everything we need to know about that third line. Pick three men, keep them together.

JEFF JACKSON

John Shannon has his Top 25 Power Brokers article up, it is here. The list is interesting and a worthwhile read. Here is a portion of what Mr. Shannon wrote about Connor McDavid’s agent, Jeff Jackson:

  • On July 1, the first possible day to renew McDavid’s contract, Jackson has a chance to recalibrate the pay scale in the NHL.  Jackson’s relationship with the Oilers is excellent (as is McDavid’s), so there is no reason to think he would hold the team hostage. But business is business and players’ careers are not infinite.

Shannon is a smart guy, and his article is designed to examine and uncover all the angles. I think his wording is spot on, this is a chance to both reset the cap at the high end and business is business. I have read elsewhere that this contract will be a test for Peter Chiarelli and the Oilers, but for me the player is the real issue.

Is there anything, and I mean anything, about Connor McDavid that indicates to you this young man is going to hesitate signing a second, long-term contract? The Edmonton Oilers and this fanbase were blessed in two ways with Connor McDavid. In winning the lottery, they won a gigantic prize, biggest available in at least a decade. And in having Connor McDavid come to our city, forge relationships with Leon and Darnell and Patrick and the fans, we have come to know him as genuine and real. Connor McDavid is going to win his first Stanley Cup as an Edmonton Oiler, and I expect he will win more than one. This is a man of great talent and character. What an amazing stroke of luck for Oilers ownership and fans.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260.  Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Oilers have a mountain to climb tonight.
  • Dean Millard, SportsNight on TSN1260. Bell Let’s Talk and the game tonight.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. A preview of the Top Prospects game next week, and we share memories of past games in this series.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide and Bell Let’s Talk!

 

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429 Responses to "G50 2016-17 OILERS AT DUCKS"

« Older Comments
  1. digger50 says:

    Ducks couldn’t buy a goal, boo hoo….they are still a good team which makes the win tonight even sweeter. And I have no sympathy for them as they are dirty buggers, some wicked spearing going on.

  2. dangilitis says:

    Soup Fascist:
    Feel bad that such a classy player like Bieksa got turned into a snow angel by McDraisaitl.

    Not a lot of guys to love on this Anaheim team. Ducks did a lot of shopping at the “jerk store”.

    Well the jerk store called to remind them that had run out of Pronger…

  3. Pescador says:

    hunter1909:
    Letestu = Pisani.

    Lowetide’s White Whale! Where’s that gold piece!?

    He made himself a new tooth

  4. oscarmike says:

    delooper:
    It’s interesting how little interest the Ducks get from their fans.They’re a good team. Are the Ducks okay financially?Is Edmonton such a bad draw? Weird.

    Oilers win 4-0
    Wh cares about the Ducks and their fans.
    Weird.

  5. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Oilers 4-0 shutout of Ducks on the road and ScarJo is splitting up with her hubby. It’s Christmas in LT land! (not that we ever wish ill or heartbreak on anyone).

  6. oscarmike says:

    oscarmike,

    *who

  7. Chachi says:

    treevojo: Lol

    I had to look up BOHICA.

    At 39 I feel old.

    Maybe Fehr has something really creative up his sleeve.

    I just have a hard time believing the owners are going to back off 50/50.

    I think I read you are a lawyer.

    Labour?

    No labour work for a long time now, but in my experience weird things happen sometimes. I hope the status quo works for both sides and there is no lockout, but if there is one it could be long and ugly. With the NHL trying to establish a franchise in Las Vegas the NHLPA might see it as an opening to get some concessions from the owners, especially if the cap doesn’t go way up. Anyhow it is years away yet, no need to worry about it too much right now.

  8. Gerta Rauss says:

    The topper on the evening is we didn’t have to listen to that fucking Anaheim goal horn

    Hate that thing

    Lots to like tonight, Sleppy looked good, Drai is terrific, I saw Sekera good and Tal-bot

  9. Professor Q says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Is it a duck call?

  10. Chachi says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    The topper on the evening is we didn’t have to listen to that fucking Anaheim goal horn

    Hate that thing

    Lots to like tonight, Sleppy looked good, Drai is terrific, I saw Sekera good and Tal-bot

    And Pouzar is back posting!

  11. Gerta Rauss says:

    -Oilers +17 in goal differential now

    -I’d start Talbot tomorrow

  12. Pescador says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Oilers 4-0 shutout of Ducks on the road and ScarJo is splitting up with her hubby. It’s Christmas in LT land! (not that we ever wish ill or heartbreak on anyone).

    I told her she had to break it off with him if she wanted to keep seeing me.

  13. oscarmike says:

    Pouloit is such an anchor on the Nuge line.

  14. Lloyd B. says:

    Chachi: No labour work for a long time now, but in my experience weird things happen sometimes. I hope the status quo works for both sides and there is no lockout, but if there is one it could be long and ugly. With the NHL trying to establish a franchise in Las Vegas the NHLPA might see it as an opening to get some concessions from the owners, especially if the cap doesn’t go way up. Anyhow it is years away yet, no need to worry about it too much right now.

    The players will never get major concessions from the owners. Ever !! Not without giving up concessions that are greater in other areas.

    To quote a game show. They are the weakest link!

    I will have to disagree with you. The Vegas franchise IS established. Anything the players could have got from the owners besides 23 new jobs is done.

    The Las Vegas owner is the weakest link of the ownership group.
    As new as he is, he is already stronger than all the players. And he doesn’t have any yet.

  15. Chachi says:

    Lloyd B.: The players will never get major concessions from the owners.Ever !!Not without giving up concessions that are greater in other areas.

    To quote a game show. They are the weakest link!

    I will have to disagree with you. The Vegas franchise IS established. Anything the players could have got from the owners besides 23 new jobs is done.

    The Las Vegas owner is the weakest link of the ownership group. They just took him for to half a billion dollars.

    As new as he is, he is already stronger than all the players. And he doesn’t have any yet.

    I understand what you are saying. Owners do have most of the power and the players have the most to lose in a lockout (it might have been cheaper for Anaheim’s owners to lock the doors and cancel the game tonight instead of playing in a half empty rink). However, I think anyone who underestimates the NHLPA under Donald Fehr does so at their own peril.

  16. rickithebear says:

    Ther are currently 10 players top 20 in goals (19) and points (43)
    9 are forwards.
    Crosby C 8.7m
    Malkin C 9.5m
    Ovi L 9.54m
    Carter 5.27m long term
    Atkinson 3.5m
    New cotracts
    Tarasenko 8@7.5m
    Marchand 8@6.125m
    Schiefle 8@6.125m
    Draisatl 3.4m elc
    Can you guess leon,s new contract the none 30g scorer.
    Can Ihave a 8@6.125m

    Mcdavid ?

  17. LMHF#1 says:

    Hey, remember the last time we could joke and BS after games and it wasn’t to dull the pain?

    I had thicker Hair, weighed 40 less and my wife was my girlfriend.

    Damn…it’s good to be back.

  18. treevojo says:

    Chachi: I understand what you are saying. Owners do have most of the power and the players have the most to lose in a lockout (it might have been cheaper for Anaheim’s owners to lock the doors and cancel the game tonight instead of playing in a half empty rink). However, I think anyone who underestimates the NHLPA under Donald Fehr does so at their own peril.

    I don’t underestimate Fehr.

    I think he is brilliant.

    The problem is the NHLPA brought him in too late.

    He needed to be leading the NHLPA in 2004.

    That ship has sailed.

    Most private sector unions now are just trying to hold on to what they have.

    Public sector is a whole different kettle of fish.

  19. Chachi says:

    treevojo: I don’t underestimate Fehr.

    I think he is brilliant.

    The problem is the NHLPA brought him in too late.

    He needed to be leading the NHLPA in 2004.

    That ship has sailed.

    Most private sector unions now are just trying to hold on to what they have.

    Public sector is a whole different kettle of fish.

    They brought him in too late and didn’t listen to him when they did. Of course, he gets paid either way. I think there are some pretty big differences between most private sector unions and the NHLPA (mostly number of members and their financial state), but I think you have an accurate take on things.

  20. treevojo says:

    Chachi: They brought him in too late and didn’t listen to him when they did. Of course, he gets paid either way.I think there are some pretty big differences between most private sector unions and the NHLPA (mostly number of members and their financial state), but I think you have an accurate take on things.

    There certainly is differences between most private sector an the nhlpa.

    I’m not sure that it necessarily favours the NHLPA in comparison though.

    NHL players obviously make more money in comparison.

    But they have much smaller windows for nhl employment.

    Maybe 3-5 years on average.

    Most private sector workers train 0-4 years to gain employment for 30+ years in their jobs.

    NHL players train 15-20 years for 3-5 years on average of NHL employment.

    NHL players may be more comfortable during a work stoppage financially then your average employee during a work stoppage but for most they are fighting a battle for a job that won’t be theirs a few years down the road.

    It is an incredible sacrifice that Fehr or any other union leader would be asking for.

  21. Diesel says:

    Matty says Talbot will go b2b.

  22. Chachi says:

    treevojo:

    It is an incredible sacrifice that Fehr or any other union leader would be asking for.

    It certainly is an incredible sacrifice. Let’s hope the owners don’t give them any reason to make that sacrifice.

  23. BONE207 says:

    I remember this highway. There’s the Texaco up ahead where we’ve had to push our car into a few times cause we’ve run out of gas. Right now though, the gage shows full. I check the rear view and see some of those past Halloweens where there is no snow yet the Oilers are out of the playoffs. Another long winter ahead. Even the All Star Game looks like it might be fun with Connor showing off his 3 on 3 skills. Then there’s that lead in the point total he has. Watching with interest in February is a gear we blew 10 years ago yet the tranny is shifting smoothly on these mildly undulating roads. Pedal to the metal boys. Let’s see how high we can wind this crazy ride.

  24. jake70 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Draisaitl is an amazing player.

    I was worried he might pass that back to McDavid for just a moment, though!

    Didn’t watch the game. Quelle surprise waking up seeing this score. Great win. McDavid passing out of the slot to Drai on this goal I find incredibly frustrating – they got the goal this time.

  25. Hilmar says:

    Beauty by Kassian, nice to see them allowed for him.

    Awesome to see Nuge scoring fairly regularly as well, Eberle looked great in parts of the game.

    10 points up on the next Pacific division team and a chance to tie it up for the lead of the division tonight, this team is really coming together before our eyes.

    You won’t win every game in dominating fashion, but the fact that we’ve been winning so many one goal games since November is a good sign of doing what it takes. That said, it feels great to win a few games with a 4 goal cushion again.

  26. Centre of attention says:

    I thought the Oilers were for sure going to lose last night.

    Man. This team is going to get better, that’s the scary part. This is only the tip of the iceberg ladies.

  27. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: And Pouzar is back posting!

    You are too kind.

    Cheers.

  28. Pouzar says:

    One of my favorite moments from last night was how the bench mobbed Kassian after his highlight reel goal. The team seems to really love this guy. Good for him. Nice comeback story.

  29. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar:
    One of my favorite moments from last night was how the bench mobbed Kassian after his highlight reel goal. The team seems to really love this guy. Good for him. Nice comeback story.

    yup

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