PET SOUNDS

This is just so good, like a cold beer on a blistering hot day, like a beautiful woman in a summer dress, smiling at you. There have been higher highs for me as an Oilers fan, but this California trip, on top of the previous 49 games, has been wonderful. Music! Cloud Nine!

CALIFORNIA IS FINE, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-3-1, goal differential +11
  • Oilers after 51, 2015-16: 20-26-5, goal differential -23
  • Oilers after 51, 2016-17: 28-15-8, goal differential +21

Edmonton reaches the All-Star break with a stunning amount of improvement. Hell boys, last year’s team won 31 games all season! 24 two years ago! 29 three years back! Crazy crazy.

GOALS FOR—AGAINST, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • After 51, 2015-16: 127-150 (-23) Source
  • After 51, 2016-17: 149-128 (+21) Source

The Oilers have improved by 22 goals for and 22 goals against so far this year. Balance! This is like two seasons (or more) of improvement rolled into one. How much of this is luck? Man, I cannot say and even the experts probably want to wait until spring to parse these things. One of the best things about the current Oilers? The holes are obvious, and that should make fixing them easier.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • On the road to: Columbus, Boston, New Jersey, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-1) (Actual: 2-2-0)
  • At home to: San Jose, New Jersey, Calgary, Arizona, Florida, Nashville (Expected Result: 3-1-2) (Actual: 4-1-1)
  • On the road to: Calgary, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected Result: 2-1-0) (So Far: 3-0-0)
  • At home to: Minnesota (Expected Result: 0-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-3, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current Results: 9-3-1, 19 points in 13 games

January is now a rival of October for the best month of this season—and most of us (certainly me) felt Edmonton would need to work hard all year just to give themselves a chance. At this point? Well, this blog is not going to be tricked into crazy talk, but the Oilers have given themselves an enormous chance to make the playoffs as one of the top three teams in the Pacific Division.

PIKES PEAK

Edmonton leads the division in goal differential, in goals for and are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. This is marvelous, too marvelous for words.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera—Russell were 10-13 in 16:22, including 3-5 with McDavid. Edmonton ran this pairing a little less than the Swedish duo but lordy all four men slept well last night. Went 2-2 against Hertl—Thornton—Pavelski and 3-4 against Marleau—Couture—Boedker. I liked this pairing more last night than I have in several games, but do hope we see Matt Benning with Sekera next season. There is chem there.
  • Klefbom—Larsson went 16-25 in 18:27, a monumental total for one pairing at 5×5 in an evening. Todd McLellan trusts his top two pairings a helluva lot, or his third pairing not at all. Went 8-6 with 97, 2-10 with the Nuge. That is a range of performance. Went 6-7 against the Thornton trio, 5-7 against the Couture line. Klefbom hammered a post senseless in the third period (I believe).
  • Davidson—Benning are not playing a lot, and Davidson had a poor game. I really like this player, and catching up dozens of games after the season starts has to be tough. And of course, you have to play him in order to get him up to speed. Catch-22. Went 5-11 together, 3-4 with McDavid and 0-4 with 93. Went 1-7 against the Thornton line and 1-3 against Couture. The Oilers need to fix this, and it is a damn shame they can’t send Brandon Davidson down for conditioning.
  • Cam Talbot was brilliant again, stopping 32 of 33, .970
  • Stats via NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick and HockeyStats.ca.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl went 9-12 against Vlasic, 9-7 against the Marleau trio. McDavid is the difference maker, Vlasic did as well as he could but there is no answer. McDavid’s assist showed his creativity, I imagine a lot of forwards would have turned around and hammered it.
  • Lucic—Caggiula—Slepyshev. Caggiula scored a fabulous goal in an important part of the game. Slepyshev had lots of jump. Milan Lucic needs a veteran center, and I wonder if Pouliot’s recent (better) play means ML will be on the 3line for the rest of the season. Lucic had a 5×5/60 number of 2.04 last year, and is at 1.09/60 this season. David Krecji, anyone?
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian got caved in possession, I thought Mr. Hendricks struggled. 3-10 against Brent Burns and Paul Martin, this line might benefit from fewer special teams minutes from Letestu. Anton Lander was available, and I do think Hendricks playing over him last night is a clear indication about how the coach feels about both men. If Todd McLellan prefers a tired Hendricks over a fresh Lander, that is a tell.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle chased the puck all night, just two shots for the entire line (both Eberle). 3-6 against Thornton and 0-5 against Couture. I like this line, but they could make life easier by getting the puck into the opposition end. Not to pick on them, and San Jose is a very good team, but if Edmonton is going to get anywhere in the playoffs, this line needs to hum. I thought Nuge made some grand defensive plays, including a late one in which he got crumpled along the boards.

CAM TALBOT UPDATE

  • Talbot overall SP: .922 (No. 6 overall)
  • Talbot Evens SP: .926 (No. 13 overall, tied)
  • Talbot PP SP: .900 (No. 5 overall)

Good numbers for Talbot, who had to be strongly considered for the All-Star game. I am fine with giving him the rest though, his 45 games (in 51) and 26 wins (No. 3) represent one helluva lot of work. Find a beach, brother!

OILERS IN THE SCORING RACE

  • No. 1—C Connor McDavid 51gp, 17-42-59
  • No. 11—C-R Leon Draisaitl 51gp, 19-27-46
  • No. 72—R Jordan Eberle 51gp, 11-21-32
  • No. 105—L Milan Lucic 51gp, 11-18-29
  • No. 138—L Patrick Maroon 51gp, 18-8-26
  • No. 138—C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 51gp, 11-15-26

Some nice recoveries going on in here, Nuge and Ebs had some dark moments in the first half of the year but have righted the ship a little. The totals for these men in the last 10 games is here, with only Lucic struggling among the top six scoring forwards at this time.

LORE

I have noticed some verbal sneaking in to the framework of the Oilers day to day, and want to address it. I want you to know that I am a Milan Lucic fan, and remain pleased Edmonton signed him. I also want you to know that I am indifferent about Kris Russell, but am hopeful he can continue to be on the right side of the score till kingdom come.

I keep hearing about important hits and vital blocks, and understand those things to be big parts of specific games. Nonetheless, we cannot overlook the higher view, the elevated evidence, with these players. Milan Lucic is scoring at a 1.09/60 clip, that is real evidence of things not working. Again, I am onside with Lucic, cheer like hell for him. Facts are facts, and that number has to be better, no matter his center.

Kris Russell can defend, he really can, but his possession numbers are not good. I heard folks yesterday talking about Russell really helping Andrej Sekera’s game, and have to point out some facts:

  • Andrej Sekera with Kris Russell: 46.3 Corsi for 5×5 in 513 minutes.
  • Andrej Sekera w/o Kris Russell: 56.5 Corsi for 5×5 in 294 minutes.
  • Source

I love telling stories as much as anyone, and remain hopeful both men can be part of this team’s success moving forward. My hopes mean jack squat. Facts matter. Our stories need to reflect facts, or we are pissing in the wind.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Friday! Beginning at 10 this morning, TSN1260:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. The Oilers at the All-Star break.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Frank is in LA for the All-Star game, we will get the latest news.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Does Edmonton’s success change the deadline priorities?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Oilers who need to be replaced before the playoffs.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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360 Responses to "PET SOUNDS"

« Older Comments
  1. Younger Oil says:

    If people could stop actively driving away some of the people that make this blog so good, that would be great.

    If people like Woodguy are driven out, like GMoney was, the comments section would be just like any other comments section on the internet. People posting their stream of consciousness of unsubstantiated opinions which creates the same generic arguments time after time after time.

    People like Woodguy brings something that few people on blogs other than LT bring: Discussion. Fact based, civilized discussion.

    Most of us just post for our own benefit, to pat ourselves on the back for putting our two cents in. Woodguy is one of the main sources of giving us something worth putting our two cents in for.

    You’re allowed to disagree with him, like you are with anyone else, but do it in a way that promotes interesting discussion. Personal attacks or making false claims only reflects badly on you, and all it does is derail what could be a friendly debate that encourages people to read and add their input to.

    If you go out of your way to target ANYONE on this blog in a mean way, it does 3 things:

    1. Makes the person you targeted less likely to post.
    2. Makes others less likely to read or post on this blog, which ultimately
    3. Causes LT’s incredible content be visited by fewer people, or costs him opportunities to expand, which is an awful thing to do to someone providing you with incredible free content and a forum to post your thoughts.

    All because one person gets their jollies off from being a jerk to others on the internet.

    This post wasn’t targeting one specific person, but just addressing a problem that has been persistent for much longer than it should be on this forum.

  2. CrazyCoach says:

    “Oh California I’m coming home
    Oh make me feel good rock ‘n’ roll band
    I’m your biggest fan
    California I’m coming home!”
    -Joni Mitchell

    Whenever I think of California, that song always pops into my head.

    I cannot believe this team is tied for first in the Pacific with the almighty hockey teams from the Golden State.

    Call it the McDavid effect.

    Simply wonderful!

    I’m going to enjoy this ride as long as it lasts.

    I think it’s time to drive over the Rockies, and get those scalper tickets to let my daughter see MCDavid play. The cycle needs to continue.

    Go Oilers Go!

  3. Zennyth says:

    There was a question posed here that asked what was the biggest hole in the roster that PC could try and address this deadline, without sacrificing too much of the future. IMO, I think it’s the center position, especially a right shot.

    Sure, the D would be a nice upgrade but nearly every team in the league could say the same thing. Since the Oil run their D with more of a committee approach, I think that leaves us a little less vulnerable to injury than other clubs, since we don’t have a No. 1 man that is irreplaceable. If a guy like Larsson goes down, that would hurt, but this season has shown we have enough second pairing caliber guys to pick up the slack and enough depth guys to plug in and play and get by. In fact, this is the first year in a while that it looks like we haven’t had too many steaming tire fire periods, regardless of who is in the line up. Also, we get deeper when Nurse returns.

    A winger like Vrbata would be great to have, but I think there may be a chance we can fix our wing issue internally by upgrading center. How much more effective might the Drake be if he could go back on wing and focus more on speed and offence instead? If JP is back up and confident later this year, he may be of help on the wing. Maybe an experienced two-way type TMac could trust would give RNH more offensive breathing room.

    Of cousre, the trick would be finding the right guy for the price. (If it’s Hanzel, I really hope they don’t overpay. On paper he seems to be an ideal fit, but I just have a bad feeling he won’t fit the bill. I’ve no stats to back that up, but just a gut feeling he might be Belanger 2.0) Personally, I’d like to shoot for Strome from NY.

    Picking up just a winger wouldn’t help fix the 3C slot (don’t want to split Leon from Connor). I doubt Drake can ideally handle the role in a playoff grind. The third line shouldn’t be sheltered if we want to attack stronger with the 2nd line and make gains with our 4th (because we’ve got good players there).

    Maybe Lander could be the right 3C guy if he plays with some offence, but I like the idea of Anton and Jujhar gaining experience as depth guys for a playoff run, and you can always play your extra C’s on the wing.

    I’d really hope if a guy comes in, he’d be a right shot as well that could play some PP. Sure would be nice to have a set-up where Connor or Nuge could play off the half wall and have that one-timer option. I really can’t wait until JP fills that void.

  4. OilSafety says:

    haters:
    My fault guys.
    He egged me on and I went for it.
    My bad

    My fault guys.
    His fault though
    My bad…. (but passive aggressively), not really….

    I am going to dig up that image an appreciative poster did for Alan of the gorgeous girl on the bed surrounded with sayings/themes from Lowetide.ca and reminisce.

  5. Hope is a good thing says:

    I love it that Talbot can steal games for us. I hate it when Talbot has to steal games for us.

    At this point, we have a chance to be a Bernie Parent Flyers Stanley Cup winner; lights out goaltending with timely scoring and a couple stars. I sincerely hope we can become a Ken Dryden Canadiens Stanley Cup winner; so strong defensively and offensively he retires after multiple Stanley Cups due to feeling unnecessary for the team to succeed.

  6. OilSafety says:

    This

    mattwatt:
    ——————————-NARRATIVE CHANGE————————–

    Oilers are in 1st place!!! They are going to be playing meaningful games in March and likely April!

    This decade of darkness has been depressing, and I have always said that unless a cup arrives in YEG, it was not worth it.Yet, here I am, on a random Friday in January, beyond excited about this team and where they are at.I don’t come to Lowetide to see stories about the draft, no siree, I come here to see stories about wins and roster make-up.What alternate universe is this?!?!

    Today is a great day, probably the best I have had as an Oiler fan in some time. Yes, I have quibbles about the roster.It is full of actual NHL-ers though, which is night and day from the past.

    OILERS ARE FIRST IN THE PACIFIC!!! HELLS TO THE YEAH!!! LETS ALL REJOICE IN SONG AND DANCE!!

    ————————–END OF NARRATIVE CHANGE——————

  7. treevojo says:

    classict:
    treevojo,

    It’s mildly worrying that we were hearing about a Russell extension back in December though that may have been brought about by Russell’s agent. And players riding a big SV% or SH% high tend to be prime overpay candidates. I think most here agree that it’s good to have D depth and Russell does provide that. But the Oil can’t go over pay for depth it’s available for low cost low term every summer.

    Only slightly related – I get the feeling it’s that same people who be happy if Russell signed 3x4million tomorrow who think we need to let Eberle go for draft picks because of his cap hit

    I know why people were worried about it.

    It made sense back when the msm was trying to drum up a story.

    But why today?

    Did new info come out that no one here has mentioned.

    Has anything Chia said or did recently give the impression a signing is imminent.

    I think Chia is pretty smart and has absolutely no reason to sign Russell today or before the summer.

    If he does then he certainly opens himself up to the corresponding criticism.

    Russell is riding a season long wave so far.

    Why would the coach knock him off it or the Gm pay him early for it?

  8. Bag of Pucks says:

    Zennyth:
    There was a question posed here that asked what was the biggest hole in the roster that PC could try and address this deadline, without sacrificing too much of the future. IMO, I think it’s the center position, especially a right shot.

    I think it’s 1RW. Right now we’re having to play our legitimate 2C there, so if the org were able to plug in a RW for McDavid that could kick out the jams, the domino effect is significant. Drai moves to 2C. RNH to 3C and Caggiula is marinating on the 4th line instead of the 3rd. Or you could move RNH to 2LW and push Pouliot down the depth chart.

    The good news is JP is likely the longterm fix here, but until he’s ready, the club is going to be top heavy.

    Dated reference, but the Oilers are a Triple Crown Line team right now. Top heavy.

  9. CrazyCoach says:

    Good words Younger Oil!

    People are free to disagree in here, but when you are mean about it and disrespectful, then you need to really do a re-evaluation of your life and scrutinize where you are in life.

    Anyone who has coached kids, knows all too well about how some parents are so free to give you their opinions, no matter how deluded and illogical they are. However, my experience in the rink after thousands of cups of bad coffee and regrettably too many hot dogs is this.

    My one hard fast rule, among many others, in regards to parents is this. Be cautious of those who praise you and put you on a pedestal when things are going well, because those who do, are often the first to knock you off and stick a knife in your back and twist it hard when things go south.

    Now, where does this motivation come from? Pure jealousy, plain and simple.

    Some of you who are mean and disrespectful, really show me and others, what petty and jealous types you are. You think you are fooling people, but you aren’t.

    My advice to you? Chill out and open your mind. Try to learn from others.

    I know that my skills as a coach have increased since reading this blog. It has totally changed the way I view the game and evaluate talent and has answered questions about why some players just aren’t effective.

    My two cents.

  10. --hudson-- says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Shot metrics cannot be wrong.It is just counting shots.There is nothing fancy about them

    Now any individual can misunderstand what they mean, but that is an entirely different thing.

    Privatemicro-tracking stats, on the other hand, is everything that is wrong about statistical analysis.It does no good to count zone exits or passes completed, or whatever dumb thing they are tracking, if you have no way to measure the value of the thing you are tracking.

    Regarding the micro stats, it seems the sportlogiq team are trying to analyze the game as a poisson process, with a series of conversion factors. Looking at a screenshot on their website you see player stats such as carry-in/dump-in ratio, ozone offensive plays, events engaged in, ‘competitiveness’, hitting, strength, energy…. It’s doubtful they can really extract all of that meaning using computer vision but good for them for trying. (source: http://sportlogiq.com/)

    However if they were able to abstract conversions for loose puck situations to clean possession to transporting the puck to the offensive zone to generating shots to goals (shooting percentage), it would be possible to assign value to the microstats in goals.

    Not sure if this is a good approach or even if those conversion factors should be attributed to an individual player as a skill. The Oilers may look at Russell as a good puck retriever, first passer and attribute his low corsi to being paired with players who are poor at converting possession into shots.

    Anyway, your post made me think of my time in app development where we put a big chunk of our revenue into marketing and watched the conversion from various ad networks into app installs into daily use into sales (or more likely uninstalls).

  11. delooper says:

    Regarding Sekera/Russell: It’s remains unclear to me that Corsi matters all that much. I had the impression this winning Oilers team’s corsis don’t always compare well with the losing oilers corsis over the past decade.

  12. Bruce Wayne says:

    classict:
    OilClog,

    RUSSELL DOESN’T MAGICALLY MAKE GOALIES BETTER!!!
    RUSSELL DOESN’T MAGICALLY MAKE GOALIES BETTER!!!
    RUSSELL DOESN’T MAGICALLY MAKE GOALIES BETTER!!!

    He has NEVER done it in his entire career. He’s not doing some amazing new thing this year at 29 years old. He’s riding a string games where the goalie is playing fantastic behind him. It happens to some players every year. And every year they come down to normal by the end of the year or by the next year.

    It’s exactly the same as guys who go on a crazy high % shooting spree and jump from 15 goals scorers to 30 goal scorers for one year.

    Until this is acknowledged, this conversation is going to happen, again, and again, and again, and again.

    And again.

    Indeed, it was the justification for the Larsson trade this summer. And what we’ve found is that Larsson does not have a magical ability to make goalies play better. Or, alternatively, he had it, but then Russell stole it when he wasn’t looking.

    Now the good news is that Larsson is a good player even without magical abilities.

    Not as good as Taylor Hall though. I would undo that trade in a nano second.

  13. OilSafety says:

    Younger Oil,

    +1

    Well articulated.

  14. classict says:

    treevojo,

    Ah ok I get what your saying. I didn’t notice that earlier debate was brought about by a new contract necessarily (unless I totally missed a post somewhere), it just ends up being part of the discussion. I guess when people disagree about what a player brings to the team it inevitably ends up being what’s he worth as a $ value?

    Bit of an aside – To me a huge part of what looking at shot counts as a measurement initially brought was helping to know if a player was riding something unsustainable and what there actual value might be. GM’s were, and still do, overpay for it every year (mostly with high SH% forwards imo) so it’s definitely still a concern.

  15. Woogie63 says:

    Josh Anderson in CBJ is my steal pick up at the trade deadline.

    CBJ needs to be proactive or will lose players at the expansion draft
    6-4, 221 lb, puck protecting, that can score abit winger, reminds me of Maroon

    Nurse, Reinhart will help the defence.
    Puliarjarvi and Kahaira will add depth at forward
    If Caggulia can’t be successful at three 3C all night, double shift McDavid or Driasaitl

  16. Scungilli says:

    bendelson: Well, he doesn’t have a great track record when placing bets with Bendelson…so, there’s that.

    Woot!Woot!

    So your his bookie? Book¡e?

  17. haters says:

    All I’m saying is using CF/A GF SF stats are a flawed way of rating a defensmens contributions to a game.
    Micro stats track things like successful shit tips, pass deflections and shot fronts or blocks.

  18. Yeti says:

    haters: My fault guys.
    He egged me on and I went for it.
    My bad

    Good to leave this here. I would respectfully suggest you re-read your first post and perhaps think about who egged on who. But aside from the personal shots, the discussion about Russell is actually productive.

  19. haters says:

    Bruce Wayne: Until this is acknowledged, this conversation is going to happen, again, and again, and again, and again.

    And again.

    Indeed, it was the justification for the Larsson trade this summer.And what we’ve found is that Larsson does not have a magical ability to make goalies play better.Or, alternatively, he had it, but then Russell stole it when he wasn’t looking.

    Now the good news is that Larsson is a good player even without magical abilities.

    Not as good as Taylor Hall though.I would undo that trade in a nano second.

    Then you are the definition of insanity

  20. Yeti says:

    haters: Then you are the definition of insanity

    No! Please don’t! For the love of god, no!!!

  21. frjohnk says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Good words Younger Oil!

    People are free to disagree in here, but when you are mean about it and disrespectful, then you need to really do a re-evaluation of your life and scrutinize where you are in life.

    Anyone who has coached kids, knows all too well about how some parents are so free to give you their opinions, no matter how deluded and illogical they are.However, my experience in the rink after thousands of cups of bad coffee and regrettably too many hot dogs is this.

    My one hard fast rule, among many others, in regards to parents is this.Be cautious of those who praise you and put you on a pedestal when things are going well, because those who do, are often the first to knock you off and stick a knife in your back and twist it hard when things go south.

    Now, where does this motivation come from? Pure jealousy, plain and simple.

    Some of you who are mean and disrespectful, really show me and others, what petty and jealous types you are.You think you are fooling people, but you aren’t.

    My advice to you?Chill out and open your mind.Try to learn from others.

    I know that my skills as a coach have increased since reading this blog.It has totally changed the way I view the game and evaluate talent and has answered questions about why some players just aren’t effective.

    My two cents.

    I think you should change your name to “wise coach”

  22. treevojo says:

    Bruce Wayne: Until this is acknowledged, this conversation is going to happen, again, and again, and again, and again.

    And again.

    Indeed, it was the justification for the Larsson trade this summer.And what we’ve found is that Larsson does not have a magical ability to make goalies play better.Or, alternatively, he had it, but then Russell stole it when he wasn’t looking.

    Now the good news is that Larsson is a good player even without magical abilities.

    Not as good as Taylor Hall though.I would undo that trade in a nano second.

    I always wait for the last line in your posts.

    They make me chuckle.

    How’s life treating you minus the whole Oiler fandom thing?

  23. frjohnk says:

    https://www.nhl.com/news/2017-nhl-skills-competition-list/c-286186836

    Bridgestone NHL Fastest Skater

    Central Division vs. Pacific Division

    MacKinnon vs. McDavid

    That, I want to watch.

  24. bendelson says:

    Fixated on the Oilers being a growth team, the impression I’ve been getting from Stauffer is to
    not expect much come the trade deadline. I’m OK with this…

    Add a back-up goaler or allow Brossiot to stick around and grow…
    Add a 3C or let The Drake play and continue to develop…

    I can see the desire to add a few pieces and find a greater degree of balance heading down the stretch but…

    Maybe the team is better off standing pat, keeping all their draft picks, and allowing the youngsters to continue to learn and grow with the big club.

    This somewhat controversial approach seems to have paid off for Pitlick and Sleppy, who could have been shelved for the likes of Versteeg or Parenteau…

  25. classict says:

    haters:
    All I’m saying is using CF/A GF SF stats are a flawed way of rating a defensmens contributions to a game.
    Micro stats track things like successful shit tips, pass deflections and shot fronts or blocks.

    That’s only if they can actually count them properly. We know from the data they’ve posted publicly they aren’t able to correctly count the number of passes out of the zone for some players. And that’s because there basically training computers to know and differentiate between all of those things. The data they’re tracking can’t be manually verified because there’s just too much.

    But we know their system isn’t getting the some of the counts right since we can compare them to people (like WheatNOil) who are manually tracking some those same counts by eye.

    So how, if they can’t even get the count right (yet, it will come eventually I’m sure) can they possibly know how to figure out the impact of those micro stats.

  26. Dino says:

    I can’t believe Russel is still such a controversial conversation point. I’m not a fancy-stat person, not because I disagree with them but because I suck at math. But I will say this, even to the eye test, Russell is not that great of a defender. I’d also go as far as saying this, if you have Russell in your top 4 d-men, chances are you aren’t a cup contending team.

    Now don’t get me wrong, Russell is still an NHL calibre defender and he does a lot of good things. I like his skating abilities, he blocks shots with courage and he’s good at defending a one on one play. As a 3rd pairing defender I think he could add a lot of value.

    The weaknesses in his game that are most glaring to me are these:

    1. His gap control at his own blue line is seriously bad. It allows the opposition to enter the zone too easily and make plays on the rush way too easily. He backs up and gives them several feet of space to either take a shot or make a play. And it makes no sense because he skates well enough to be able to confront a player at the blue line and still be able to back up if it fails. But it seems he’s more comfortable to allow them to set up and try to block their shots instead. Even if it doesn’t result in goals against it results in chances against and eventually those turn to goals.

    2. He lacks the vision/ability to make an outlet pass to an open forward. He rather shoot the puck into an open space and hope for the best. Often times those pucks come right back into our zone and cycles are started along the boards. Last night I saw him opt out of making a 5 foot pass to an open forward and he shot the puck into the bench instead under very little pressure. I’ve seen him do this even with an open Mcdavid in the neutral zone. I can’t stand it.

    3. He rarely breaks up the cycle in his own zone. Once it gets started it goes on for a long time, even if he eventually gets the puck on his stick, he makes poor decisions under pressure and often throws it to nowhere or gives it away. When the opposition is in our zone with Russell they’re in there for a long long time unfortunately. I think our best defenders at breaking up cycles are Klef and Larsson.

    Those 3 flaws I listed have nothing to do with fancy stats and Corsi, these are strictly based off of eye tests. Sure when Russell blocks a shot with a lot of heart or does a pretty skating trick it might take your mind off of his deficiencies, but look at the whole play next time. Why did he have to block that shot in the first place? What had to happen for the opposition to get such a good scoring chance? After he did a fancy figure skating trick with the puck, who did he pass it to? Did he even pass it at all? Look at the whole story next time and you’ll find that the eye test isn’t so far from the story that statistics tell on this player.

  27. leadfarmer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Sorry your comment went way over my head. Good luck on your portfolio!! Post a pic or two for the rest of us. Internet definitely stimulates the I know everything and everyone around me is an idiot level of thought.

    Being in the science field I question people’s studies so second guessing people’s conclusions is what I do.

  28. sliderule says:

    ASkoreyko: Honest question. Why do you feel it is necessary for you to come to a stats-based blog and vigorously defend a player who looks poor by statistical measurement. I mean I understand you can be a fan of the game and the team, but surely you would be happier if were not trying to be a modern Sisyphus on this blog.

    If you honestly feel like these ‘stats guys’ fooled you perhaps you should again reconsider coming here and posting. I am saying this in all honesty and without hostility. Why subject yourself and others here to an argument thatwill clearly never be won by either side. It is like going to a Trump rally and yelling at the other side, it accomplishes nothing and instead everyone leaves thinking that the other guy was such an asshole. You are free to enjoy the Oilers (and they are truly enjoyable now) wherever you want, but if you insist on posting here and even attacking one of the main contributors I have to wonder about your motive and intentions. The internet is a big and wonderful place, I am sure you could find another spot where you would be happier.

    You are not the first to make this statement .

    Does this mean those of us that take statistics with a grain of salt are unwelcome?

    I have been coming here since 2010 and I don’t remember Alan telling us this blog is for stats gurus only and if you don’t feel that way shut your yap.

    There is too much shouting down of assessments that folks don’t agree with in the world without seeing it on my favorite blog

  29. treevojo says:

    haters:
    All I’m saying is using CF/A GF SF stats are a flawed way of rating a defensmens contributions to a game.
    Micro stats track things like successful shit tips, pass deflections and shot fronts or blocks.

    Tell me more about these shit tips!

    Seems like something a 3rd pairing grinder would excel at.

  30. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    haters:

    Micro stats track things like successful shit tips

    !!!
    I thought toilets (vs. underwear tracking unsuccessful ones) track successful shit tips just fine.

  31. Scungilli says:

    haters: All I’m saying is using CF/A GF SF stats are a flawed way of rating a defensmens contributions to a game.

    As everyone admits.

    I would like to remind you that your gracious host has asked that the tone and what comes across as lack of respect for others that we are reading from you is not what he wants here and negatively affects his blog.

    Very few here appreciate the drop in discussion when bombastic and aggressive writing is used. Please choose a higher level and come across like you give a shit about this appreciated community as much as yourself.

  32. dustrock says:

    Guys, we won back-to-back games in California, in regulation, with the same goalie, and the opposition scored 1 goal in 2 games.

    We are tied for first in points in the Pacific.

    I was going to copy and paste this into a page-long post, but you get the idea. What a day. What a feeling as an Oilers fan.

  33. LadiesloveSmid says:

    For me, I think to the playoffs and if the oilers play the sharks and are doubled in shot attempts (or CORSIS) for the whole series. Shotblocking isn’t going to save you. Talbot running like he has of late and a high SH% (also of late) would hopefully get you through the series. Through 4 series? not a chance in hell

    I think Russell is good 3v3 and isn’t a bad bottom pairing Dman, he shouldn’t be any higher or on his off side. I probably like the Sekera-Fayne pair over Sekera-Russell

  34. bendelson says:

    dustrock,

    Woot! Woot!

  35. frjohnk says:

    Completely off topic.

    Anybody go to a Ducks game lately? Taking the fam to Disneyland, want to catch a game. ( I wanted to go this past week to fit in the Oiler game, but it didnt work. Grrrr!

    Whats the best way to get tickets? On the website? Anybody just walk up and buy at the box office? Pros cons.

    3 Tier fan here.

  36. dustrock says:

    Guys, not a Right-handed shot, but what do you think about targeting Patrik Berglund as a 3C?

    He’s an expiring contract this year and I’m guessing St. Louis won’t be resigning him.

    Thought the cost might be less than for Shattenkirk.

  37. haters says:

    classict,

    Iirc I think the line I heard is the Russell has one of the cleanest own zone exits in the league ? I might be wrong.

    That said, there is a lot of money in this business of tracking stats and I respect that people here have vested interest in supporting their respective models.

    I’m just saying the ones I’ve seen posted here seem flawed and incomplete at the moment. It’s asking a lot but we need more info.

  38. Professor Q says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: No, the Oilers should not have taken Scheifele over RNH. That’s called hindsight trading. The TSN panel was astounded and shocked, and so was most of the hockey world, when Winnipeg took Scheifele where they did.

    Look, here is the NHL Central Scouting NORTH AMERICA Pre-Draft final ranking:
    Mark Scheifele was the 16th ranked North American skater.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=68892

    That’s like saying the Oilers should have taken Gaudreau, or Tarasenko instead of Hall, etc.

    This place would have gone up in flames if the Oilers had taken Scheifele first overall. These kinds of hindsight arguments are not helpful!

    Scheifele isn’t even the 2nd Best player of that draft.

  39. classict says:

    frjohnk,

    I’ve always had a decent experience with StubHub though not for Anaheim…Down there it might be just as cheap to go the website/boxoffice route. Web site probably gives you digital copies?

  40. dustrock says:

    One last point before I finally go for a haircut:

    I’m not sure it’s possible to track this, but when a team has turned over so many players over 2-3 years, how long does it take the team to gel, acquire chemistry, and learn a system?

    It’s not like an established team like Chicago or St. Louis where the vets all know the system and can show the rookies and new hires how to play.

    This was basically a top-to-bottom rebuild, including the head coach and GM.

    Not that I expect the Oilers to be 1st in the Pacific at the end of the year, but I wonder how much of the perceived weaknesses we saw in the roster were due to those exact issues?

    People were complaining (heck, I did this a few times myself) about T-Mac’s “dump-and-chase” system not generating offence, and yet look at their GF.

  41. haters says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: !!!
    I thought toilets (vs. underwear tracking unsuccessful ones) track successful shit tips just fine.

    Quoted for truth !! Lol

  42. OilSafety says:

    Looks like the Oilers have added a leather vest with logo to their player of the game helmet schtick.

    https://twitter.com/grybes02/status/824861817251852288

    great to see this team forging its own identity and coming together as a group. Oh, and there winning too! Woot!

  43. classict says:

    haters:
    classict,

    Iirc I think the line I heard is the Russell has one of the cleanest own zone exits in the league ? I might be wrong.

    That said, there is a lot of money in this business of tracking stats and I respect that people here have vested interest in supporting their respective models.

    I’m just saying the ones I’ve seen posted here seem flawed and incomplete at the moment. It’s asking a lot but we need more info.

    Sure we do, agreed. But at least with most of stuff that’s being done publicly we know that the counts they are using for analysis are correct. Even if the conclusions they are coming to are potentially flawed.

    When you start to look at black box stats companies you have two things to worry about instead of one. Are they actually getting the counts right? In this case they seem to be having some issues. And then you get the same question as the other stats. Are they actually doing good analysis on whatever they’re counting. Or put another way does what they’re counting mean anything. But to even get to step 2 you have to have step 1 figured out 100%. And we haven’t seen any evidence yet that those counts are correct.

    Edit: I’m pretty sure this was one of GMoneys issues with the whole black box thing too. It’s actually ridiculous to pay for something like that where they can’t show how they came to a conclusion. Where they won’t even show the data that was used to motivate the conclusion.

    Hide your process of analysis sure (still not great) but you at least need to show the data used is correct…

  44. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Professor Q: Scheifele isn’t even the 2nd Best player of that draft.

    shoulda taken that Kucherov guy 1st overall. 😉

  45. Lowetide says:

    haters:
    Did we watch the same game ? Benning was aweful last night, dreadful 12 mins. Russell played against the top line for 24 mins and gave up next to nothing. What do people here have against defenseman that can play actual defense. Even Gretzky sees Russell value ffs. But because there isn’t a stat tracked that fully incorporates everything player types like Russell brings every night he’s irrelevant ??

    Question
    If Nj called today and said they want to trade back Hall for Larsson would you do it ?

    The way this humble observer of hockey sees it is you can’t play 100% of the time in the offensive zone so when the puck does manage to get to your end you need defenseman that are a pain in the ass and frustrating to play against. I see Larsson as the former and Russell the later.

    Lowetide you need to stop listeningto WG so much.
    He’s silly. He thinks RyJo and Hopkins are equals because of some bs stats over a 5 year period and he also said on your show that Chia set this team back by trading Hall and limited their potential..

    Crazy
    Not an attack on him.
    I respect him as a poster and all the work him a G have done is amazing
    But man he’s stubborn on some stuff. 🙂

    Cheers

    A few things here:

    1. I didn’t see a massive defense of Benning in comments (or my blog post above), so not sure who you are talking to when you say this.
    2. I love defensemen who can play defense, but am also fond of playing defensemen at their established level.
    3. I love Wayne Gretzky, but his legend comes from on-ice performance.
    4. WG and I disgree on all kinds of things, that is the fun of it. We each have our own opinions, and we use math and words to defend them.
    5. We are all stubborn on some stuff.

    🙂

  46. frjohnk says:

    classict,

    thanks

  47. haters says:

    Scungilli,

    I don’t think I said anything that inflammatory. Just having a difference of opinion with a person.

  48. ashley says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Good words Younger Oil!

    My one hard fast rule, among many others, in regards to parents is this.Be cautious of those who praise you and put you on a pedestal when things are going well, because those who do, are often the first to knock you off and stick a knife in your back and twist it hard when things go south.

    Interesting. I’ve coached for many years and have had a different experience. The parents that have caused the most problems for me are the ones that a) have coached kids at lower levels themselves, b) coach their kids on the way to and back from the game in the car, often telling them to ignore their coaches instructions c) Scream instructions at their kids from the sideline, sometimes contradicting what the coaching staff is trying to do. Usually all three of these go together.

    I had a girl last year who refused to take the ice at the provincial championships. She sat there and cried because her dad brought her to the game (instead of her grandparents) and she couldn’t bear the pressure of him watching and then picking apart her game all the way home in the car. Sad.

    What should we say to our kids after a game? Not much. How about “Did you have fun?” and “I like watching you play”. Then move on to something else because the child already has and they don’t care nearly as much about winning as you do.

    The other group of parents I find challenging are the ones that have never coached before and treat you like the hired help at a fast food restaurant. Like they signed up and paid their entry fee, and now want a superb customer experience.

    Fortunately, the majority of parents are grateful for the volunteer effort and tell me as much. I appreciate the feedback and have never found these parents to get down on me or the team when the victories are not as plentiful as they had hoped.

    Every coach who volunteers year after year will spend a season with a team in the basement of the standings. Somebody has to end up there, but it doesn’t matter much since the focus is long term player development.

  49. haters says:

    Lowetide,

    My brain has a LT appetite but a Stauffer budget lol.

    Please have Bruce in more. You guys should have your own 2 hour show. Great chemistry even if he is always late 😂

  50. haters says:

    Lowetide,

    You didn’t answer the Hall question btw 🙂

  51. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    ashley,

    Parents! My mother still does that to me even though I have been an adult longer than I have been a kid. A simple “I am proud of you,” would go a long way to offsetting the constant picking apart of my life. I am sure most people have the same experience.

    The Oilers are like our baby, too. So here it is, “Good job this year, Oilers. I am proud of you. Every last one of you guys.”

    Now I would like to carry on with my nit-picking and general bad parenting behaviour. 😉

  52. Bruce Wayne says:

    haters:
    All I’m saying is using CF/A GF SF stats are a flawed way of rating a defensmens contributions to a game.
    Micro stats track things like successful shit tips, pass deflections and shot fronts or blocks.

    This post wins for unintentional hilarity.

    “All I’m saying is that counting shots is a flawed way of rating a defenseman’s contributions to a game.” Now let me list a number of things, all of which directly lead to, or take away from, shots that are not counted by shots.

    The mind boggles.

  53. Lowetide says:

    haters:
    Lowetide,

    You didn’t answer the Hall question btw 🙂

    I try not to repeat myself. 🙂
    http://lowetide.ca/2016/06/29/breaking-hall-to-new-jersey/

  54. Georges says:

    If you’re going to argue the limitations of Corsi, bring numbers.

    numbers + words > words

    Here’s one.

    The correlation between 5v5 CF% and P% at the all-star break: .25

    With a number like that, you need fewer words.

    Corsi bad!

  55. haters says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Don’t let it boggle to much.

    Do the splits with him in the lineup as opposed to out and chew on that a bit.

    I’ll just say him since it’s obvious who I’m talking about lol
    Don’t let it bother you to much though, those same stats likes Fayne more.
    If that doesn’t keep you up at night I’m not sure what will

  56. ASkoreyko says:

    haters: I come to read Alan’s post and infuriate WG
    What you come for bruh ? Tryna sound smart eh ? Hoser…

    Don’t tell me how to live please.
    It’s not like I’m full of it.
    I just enjoy when people that can’t be wrong are wrong.
    Especially bully’s
    I don’t like bully’s

    So you state you don’t like Bully’s but then take several personal shots at me while answering none of my questions.

    Your not full of it, but you are arguing a point that no one ever really made and trying to change someones world view by attacking them directly. Your aggressive response to my post further demonstrates your preferred method of engagement, which given what LT even wrote in this very blog post seems to be counter to what the author would like to have happen here.

    To quote a famous poster here, “I don’t think bully means what you think it means”.

  57. classict says:

    haters,

    Why would it? The idea is to show that he’s the one causing that difference. And he’s missed so few games in what’s already a small sample it’s impossible to show that.

    It’s way more likely that Cam Talbot had a poor couple game stretch when Russell was hurt than it is that at 29 years old all of a sudden having Kris Russell in the line up, even when he’s not on the ice, makes the goalie way better

  58. Scungilli says:

    haters:
    Scungilli,

    I don’t think I said anything that inflammatory. Just having a difference of opinion with a person.

    Fair enough, but perhaps you are not aware of how some of your comments come across.

    I’m not saying I haven’t been there or don’t cross the line at times, now I make a concerted effort to express my opinion less forcefully in hope that someone will discuss it with me, or hear my point when I think they are off base.

  59. digger50 says:

    In regards to Milan.

    I don’t think they are worried about his offence right now. It appears as though he’s been asked to hold that third line together until the cavalry can arrive. It is a solid veteran task, and Todd needs someone who can do it while the other lines pot some goals. I don’t see anyone else who can do it so it’s a sacrifice that benefits the team.

    As stated “the holes are obvious”. And though Drai is a good centre, he’s not leaving that wing for a while. (IMO) The edge of having one oh so dominating line has been critical.

    The upcoming UFA’s I feel we will pass on. More likely someone who shakes loose due to upcoming expansion, I have no idea who.

    Assuming Chia and Todd are on the same page. Last summer Chia liked Drai at center and was looking to boost RW. While Todd stated he intended to try Drai at wing and would rather Chia was hunting a center.

  60. classict says:

    Could Luc/Pou – Lander – Vanek score in a soft minutes role?

    Then JJ – Letestu – Kassian as the 4th

  61. Lowetide says:

    At this point, I suspect everyone has tired of each other, and the subject at hand. I have not deleted anything to this point, but reserve the right to from now on. If you want to discuss things respectfully, please proceed. Beyond that, I think this is a bit of a waste of time.

  62. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I was thinking last night that Lucic looked like a nice fit on the port side with Nuge and Eberle. Thoughts?

    Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-Caggiula-Slepyshev
    Lander/Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    What say you?

  63. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    classict:
    Could Luc/Pou – Lander – Vanek score in a soft minutes role?

    Then JJ – Letestu – Kassian as the 4th

    On your first question, I think the answer is yes. But I don’t think the coaches see Lander as being a fit in that type of scoring role. And what would Vanek cost? I’d imagine the Wings would ask for a lot for him.

  64. classict says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    I was thinking last night that Lucic looked like a nice fit on the port side with Nuge and Eberle. Thoughts?

    Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-Caggiula-Slepyshev
    Lander/Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    What say you?

    I don’t think you can swap Lucic/Pouliot unless you upgrade that 3C spot. Pouliot will struggle with the two rookies. But I think that could be a good fit for him eventually.

  65. classict says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    No idea the cost, he’s a UFA though so I guess it just depends on the demand. If I’m them I’m trying to load up on some picks for now.

  66. Ducey says:

    Just noticed something:

    Yak city 28 3 3 6
    Sleepy 23 3 3 6

  67. oscarmike says:

    Drake on the wing with Letestu and Lucic going up against Burns, Pavelski and Thorton. He breaks up a pass and scores on the breakaway.

    It’s no secret Drake struggles at face-offs and playing center but the last few games he was up against Getzlaf and Monahan. I don’t think Drake is good at center because he’s bad at face-offs. He didn’t take any face offs last night.

  68. oscarmike says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    I was thinking last night that Lucic looked like a nice fit on the port side with Nuge and Eberle. Thoughts?

    Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-Caggiula-Slepyshev
    Lander/Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    What say you?

    Drake didn’t take any Face offs last night. I think he’s done at Center.

  69. Bruce McCurdy says:

    … and here I was hopeful/expectant to find a happy comments section today.

    Same thing on Twitter, I got more @ mentions with “but Hall!” or “but Reinhart!!” references than anything. And one good-hearted fellow who was inconsolable about Oilers’ inevitable cap hell in 2 years.

    I choose to enjoy this moment. Savour it, even. Only way this road trip could have been better was to be longer, with similar results in LA and Vancouver. As it stands, consecutive convincing wins in Calgary, Anaheim and San Jose to move into a share of first in the division is as good as things can get. (In the regular season, at least.)

  70. Younger Oil says:

    Ducey:
    Just noticed something:

    Yak city 28 3 3 6
    Sleepy 23 3 3 6

    Yeah, but Yakupov is putting up those numbers on a worse team 😀

  71. A'bunadh says:

    haters:
    Bruce Wayne,

    Don’t let it boggle to much.

    Do the splits with him in the lineup as opposed to out and chew on that a bit.

    I’ll just say him since it’s obvious who I’m talking about lol
    Don’t let it bother you to much though, those same stats likes Fayne more.
    If that doesn’t keep you up at night I’m not sure what will

    You’ve aggressively and arrogantly attacked and criticized fancy stats that directly relate to the player and what happens during that player’s 20 minutes on the ice and then you want to fall back to a team record that is created by that players 20 minutes + the rest of the team’s 340+ minutes on the ice? How does that work?

    A lot of teams have better records short term while missing high end players. They also lose when weak players are out of the lineup. Short term blips are just that. If the teams record is better with Hendricks in the lineup does that mean we shouldn’t look for an upgrade because we are obviously better with him?

    And yes, you’ve been an aggressive, dick towards WG. You said you can’t see it so I thought I’d point it out for you.

  72. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    … and here I was hopeful/expectant to find a happy comments section today.

    Same thing on Twitter, I got more @ mentions with “but Hall!” or “but Reinhart!!” references than anything. And one good-hearted fellow who was inconsolable about Oilers’ inevitable cap hell in 2 years.

    I choose to enjoy this moment. Savour it, even. Only way this road trip could have been better was to be longer, with similar results in LA and Vancouver. As it stands, consecutive convincing wins in Calgary, Anaheim and San Jose to move into a share of first in the division is as good as things can get. (In the regular season, at least.)

    Haha. I had the same experience not long ago. Seems success does not solve all things.

  73. Bruce McCurdy says:

    classict: When you start to look at black box stats companies you have two things to worry about instead of one. Are they actually getting the counts right? In this case they seem to be having some issues. And then you get the same question as the other stats. Are they actually doing good analysis on whatever they’re counting. Or put another way does what they’re counting mean anything. But to even get to step 2 you have to have step 1 figured out 100%. And we haven’t seen any evidence yet that those counts are correct.

    …or if those dudes in Bangalore they hired to break down the video have figured out what the blueline is for yet.

  74. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Haha. I had the same experience not long ago. Seems success does not solve all things.

    It seems that the pitchforks come out after losses OR during any period of sustained success. It’s odd how that happens.

  75. Georges says:

    Russell’s fine. Corsi makes him look bad (46.3 5v5 CF%). But he’s a shot blocker so opponents have a harder time converting attempts to shots. Shots are closer to goals than shot attempts.

    I like 5v5 SF% and GF%.

    SF% 49.1
    GF% 56.5

    He saws off on shots and wins on goals. Some PDO happiness then.

    Russell’s a competitor and he plays with heart. So does the rest of our team.

  76. stevezie says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    … and here I was hopeful/expectant to find a happy comments section today.

    Same thing on Twitter, I got more @ mentions with “but Hall!” or “but Reinhart!!” references than anything. And one good-hearted fellow who was inconsolable about Oilers’ inevitable cap hell in 2 years.

    I choose to enjoy this moment. Savour it, even. Only way this road trip could have been better was to be longer, with similar results in LA and Vancouver. As it stands, consecutive convincing wins in Calgary, Anaheim and San Jose to move into a share of first in the division is as good as things can get. (In the regular season, at least.)

    I don’t think the problem is critics can’t enjoy a win. From my perspective, what happens looks like this

    Fade in. The Oilers have just won

    Joyless Critics: Hmm, that was nice.

    True Fans: Hahaha! Look, you stupid assholes! Everything you said has been proven wrong! Are you willing to admit you are a stupid asshole now are you too obsessed with being right and furthering your own agenda? The moves you criticized have all been worked out! We’re winning!

    Joyless Critics: Looks like most of the moves we criticized still look bad. We think the improvement is happening for other reasons. Also, we feel the team could be doing even better than it is now. So, no, we don’t think we’re a bunch of stupid assholes.

    True Fans: Holy good mercy, can you go a day without bringing up the moves you criticized? You just want to be right!

    end scene

    Maybe there really are people who can’t enjoy happiness on twitter. I may be wrong, but I doubt that place is good for humanity.

  77. CrazyCoach says:

    ashley: What should we say to our kids after a game? Not much. How about “Did you have fun?” and “I like watching you play”. Then move on to something else because the child already has and they don’t care nearly as much about winning as you do.
    The other group of parents I find challenging are the ones that have never coached before and treat you like the hired help at a fast food restaurant. Like they signed up and paid their entry fee, and now want a superb customer experience.
    Fortunately, the majority of parents are grateful for the volunteer effort and tell me as much. I appreciate the feedback and have never found these parents to get down on me or the team when the victories are not as plentiful as they had hoped.
    Every coach who volunteers year after year will spend a season with a team in the basement of the standings. Somebody has to end up there, but it doesn’t matter much since the focus is long term player development.

    Dynomite stuff Ashley. Not the content, but you’ve shared some of the frustrations many coaches have.

    As far as the car ride home, I actually make it a point to tell parents (first), and my players, that if they want to have a silent car ride home with the ear buds in and not talk about the game, then that should be allowed. No exceptions. I’m sure most parents aren’t as crazy at Patrick O’Sullivan’s, but there’s really nothing to be gained from a car ride discussion. I’ve found that the reality is that 20 minutes after the game, most kids have forgotten about it and are more concerned about where they’re going to eat while the adults agonize about the game for hours/days/weeks/months on end.

    I totally agree with you on the fast food type of parents. Yes, I know hockey is expensive, but the amount of money you pay is not equal to the amount of abuse you can heap on me due to unrealistic expectations.

    Long ago, one exercise I started was measuring expectations. I first would take a pile of index cards into the dressing room and give one to each player and tell them to write their name at the top and write three reasons they play hockey. I do a quick review, then store the cards. At the first parent meeting, I take another set of blank cards and get the parents to write the top three reasons their kids play hockey. After that is done, I slide their kids card towards them and ask them to compare (sometimes contrast) their reasons with their kids. I never ask the parents for their cards and ask them to keep those cards together and in a handy place for their reference. It’s interesting to see the reactions.

    Most parents get into hockey for the right reasons (for their kids to have fun, etc), but the old adage is that 10% of the parents cause 90% of the problems.

    Glad that you coach Ashley. I know the time and dedication it takes.

  78. Generational Poster says:

    First off, man is it nice to have watchable / meaningful hockey again!

    One of the things that comes to my mind when people question the validity / impact of Corsi is a poker player that doesn’t account for variance, i.e. after a run of bad beats “I always lose with pocket aces” kinda thing, which can drive poor decision making.

    However, over a large enough sample size playing enough hands properly will yield positive results, provided the player manages their bankroll well enough to ride out their “PDO” (variance).

    Similarly, applied to hockey I respectfully feel as though some people dismiss stats / counts that don’t agree with a small sample size.

    A few questions for those (much) more knowledgeable than I in this realm:

    1. How does Corsi account for quality? Or is there another metric that does? Is this HDSC? If so, why is it not readily used – too subjective?

    2. Is there / has anyone attempted to apply a margin of error for Corsi? (i.e. losing the Corsi battle by x points drives down win % by ___ amount, etc.)

    3. (More fun) Does Davidson for Tyler Bozak make any sense? Who says no?

    TB does have a partial NTC and makes 4.2 million through next season, however.

  79. böök¡je says:

    Be Happy!

  80. N64 says:

    treevojo: I think Chia is pretty smart and has absolutely no reason to sign Russell today or before the summer.

    Yes. Believe he’s on record as anything would be after the expansion draft.

  81. VanIsleOil says:

    CrazyCoach and Ashley:

    ASHLEY: What should we say to our kids after a game? Not much. How about “Did you have fun?” and “I like watching you play”. Then move on to something else because the child already has and they don’t care nearly as much about winning as you do.
    The other group of parents I find challenging are the ones that have never coached before and treat you like the hired help at a fast food restaurant. Like they signed up and paid their entry fee, and now want a superb customer experience.
    Fortunately, the majority of parents are grateful for the volunteer effort and tell me as much. I appreciate the feedback and have never found these parents to get down on me or the team when the victories are not as plentiful as they had hoped.
    Every coach who volunteers year after year will spend a season with a team in the basement of the standings. Somebody has to end up there, but it doesn’t matter much since the focus is long term player development.

    CRAZYCOACH:Dynomite stuff Ashley. Not the content, but you’ve shared some of the frustrations many coaches have.

    As far as the car ride home, I actually make it a point to tell parents (first), and my players, that if they want to have a silent car ride home with the ear buds in and not talk about the game, then that should be allowed. No exceptions. I’m sure most parents aren’t as crazy at Patrick O’Sullivan’s, but there’s really nothing to be gained from a car ride discussion. I’ve found that the reality is that 20 minutes after the game, most kids have forgotten about it and are more concerned about where they’re going to eat while the adults agonize about the game for hours/days/weeks/months on end.

    I totally agree with you on the fast food type of parents. Yes, I know hockey is expensive, but the amount of money you pay is not equal to the amount of abuse you can heap on me due to unrealistic expectations.

    Long ago, one exercise I started was measuring expectations. I first would take a pile of index cards into the dressing room and give one to each player and tell them to write their name at the top and write three reasons they play hockey. I do a quick review, then store the cards. At the first parent meeting, I take another set of blank cards and get the parents to write the top three reasons their kids play hockey. After that is done, I slide their kids card towards them and ask them to compare (sometimes contrast) their reasons with their kids. I never ask the parents for their cards and ask them to keep those cards together and in a handy place for their reference. It’s interesting to see the reactions.

    Most parents get into hockey for the right reasons (for their kids to have fun, etc), but the old adage is that 10% of the parents cause 90% of the problems.

    Glad that you coach Ashley. I know the time and dedication it takes.

    THANK YOU gentlemen for the sage words. Excellent advice for parents and coaches of young hockey players. As a person who was heavily involved in minor hockey, I love your perspectives and I’m sure your hockey communities do too.

  82. stevezie says:

    böök¡je:
    Be Happy!

    You holding?

  83. McSorley33 says:

    Pouzar,

    Not aimed at anyone but when I hear “Horrible” to describe our D at any point in time I am reminded of this quote from 2 years ago:
    “I’m reasonably comfortable going forward with Oscar and Justin and Nikita and Andrew and Mark Fayne. Nikita was playing better. He started off slowly, I don’t think he was in the best shape he could have been and we have to get that rectified next year but he was getting into shape. He’s a top-four NHL defenceman.”
    *****************************************************************************
    Well said…..slow golf clap, and a tip of the cap.

  84. Lucinius says:

    Lowetide: Haha. I had the same experience not long ago. Seems success does not solve all things.

    Honestly, some of the Oiler fans are acting in a way that doesn’t surprise me; they’ve suffered long and now that the team is finding success they are terrified of losing it, somehow, someway and as such are quick to lash out at anything remotely threatening the rough out-line of the status-quo that seems to be working well enough (ignoring that things can always be improved further).

    Personally.. I like Russel. He’s been a great addition to the team that has played far too high in the batting order. Roster decisions and deployment remain one of my biggest gripes with the coaching staff.

    But hey, nothing is ever perfect and the team doesn’t suck. Other than the whole anti-Lander bias in the organization I’ll quietly just nod my head and smile while the team continues to do well.

    Until they screw it all up by doing something stupid (like say.. giving Russel a long term extension at 3.5+ mil/year).

    I mean hell.. we’re ahead of Calgary and Vancouver in the standings. That alone is worth a lot to me. My big hope for this season was meaningful games into February. Now we’re talking about a fight for divisional lead into February.

    For this long time Oiler fan.. that is amazing.

  85. Bruce McCurdy says:

    stevezie,

    Interesting, however your version has the True Fan as the instigator.

    In my own case, I don’t recall saying “Hahaha! Look, you stupid assholes! Everything you said has been proven wrong! Are you willing to admit you are a stupid asshole now are you too obsessed with being right and furthering your own agenda? The moves you criticized have all been worked out! We’re winning!” but maybe I did & forgot, or maybe someone else did.

  86. McSorley33 says:

    Can I change the subject….

    I would like to discuss Kris Russell now….

  87. Bruce McCurdy says:

    CrazyCoach: Long ago, one exercise I started was measuring expectations. I first would take a pile of index cards into the dressing room and give one to each player and tell them to write their name at the top and write three reasons they play hockey. I do a quick review, then store the cards. At the first parent meeting, I take another set of blank cards and get the parents to write the top three reasons their kids play hockey. After that is done, I slide their kids card towards them and ask them to compare (sometimes contrast) their reasons with their kids. I never ask the parents for their cards and ask them to keep those cards together and in a handy place for their reference. It’s interesting to see the reactions.

    This is terrific stuff. I especially like the part where you Don’t ask to see the parents’ cards but simply give them the new information and the opportunity to compare & contrast & ponder for themselves. Brilliant.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide:
    At this point, I suspect everyone has tired of each other Beyond that, I think this is a bit of a waste of time.

    So you may call it an all star weekend worthy thread

  89. classict says:

    treevojo,

    Interesting that Stauffer today (just saw from Twitter I didn’t have a chance to listen) brought up that 3.5 x 3 would likely not be enough to sign Russell. He’s been pretty close to the last few Oilers moves I think.

  90. Timeisnow says:

    Kris Russell and Andrej Sekera. It’s a funny coincidence, Andrej Sekera is having the best season of his career in my mind. This guy is a very good defenseman, any way you slice it or dice it, he’s our top defenseman.

    I know people were talking about Russell playing with Sekera is helping AS out. I know the corsi numbers suggest this isn’t true. I think it’s possible that these two defensemen have very good chem.

    and understand how the other plays and where the other is going to be most of the time. Russell and Sekera play the position differently and they compliment each other so it’s working. Maybe it isn’t a coincidence.

    I like Russell, so does management, they like his compete and his character, when they reup him I hope it’s for less than 4×4. Russell generally makes the safest play, if the pass isn’t there it’s going off the glass and out, and that is what a dman is suppose to do. He will sacrifice anything to prevent a goal against, I like that in a dman. Not the most talented but he has a lot of heart and that counts.

  91. frjohnk says:

    Today this blog gets heated just talking about Russell.

    Wait until the Oilers sign him to term and then trade Klefbom.

    Its not so far fetched.

    Sekera has a NMC and is their best Dman
    Oilers love Nurse.

    Oilers like Russell, so they may feel keeping those 3 on the left side and trading for help to the right side is the way to go for next year.

    Our D next year IF THEY SIGN RUSSELL

    Sekera-New guy
    Nurse-Larsson
    Russell-Benning
    Reinhart ( cause we lose Davidson to expansion and because Reinhart has to clear waivers, the Oilers will not be sending him down)

  92. Lowetide says:

    McSorley33:
    Can I change the subject….

    I would like to discuss Kris Russell now….

    I think the Oilers sign him in the days after the expansion draft.

  93. Ronald Chevalier says:

    Yeti: Did you read his post above, where he specifically mentions where he was wrong on his predictive analysis of Rusell?

    But lets cut to the chase. No-one here ‘hates’ Russell. That’s just a silly word that people fling out there to help them be dismissive of analysis.

    What a number of people are saying – and they’re using statistical evidence to back up their argument – is that Russell does some things well but is playing too high up the order on his off-side to be truly effective. They are saying this because, moving forward, they would prefer to see a different playing in that 2RHD spot. They hope that Russell isn’t given a contract that locks him into that spot because, statistically, he’s likely to fall short of delivering results and value in that spot over the medium term.

    Is that difficult to comprehend? It has nothing to do with ‘hate’.

    I’m going to quote this for truth and beg the people looking to pick a fight to read it and consider it.

  94. stevezie says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Definitely not directed at you. More a general defence of those of us who seems so curiously lacking in exuberance.

    Yes, in my own experience, the “true fans” are usually the instigators. After the Nashville game, for example, myself and the other two Chia critics I know all agreed it was Lucic’s best game. Our pro-Chia friends asked if we were now finally willing to withdraw our reservations about the contract. When we said no, we were accused of being negative and unwilling to enjoy the winning. (Willing to be some of you have bumped into a couple of them on twitter. I apologize.)

    For once the internet is actually nicer than real life- it is IRL (as the kids say) that I am told the Oilers being in 4th is evidence that I’m a moron. Yes, this dampens my joy.

    I’m very willing to admit this might reflect my experience more than the larger reality.

    P.S For what it’s worth I am a moron, but the proof is unrelated. I’m right about the hockey stuff.

  95. spoiler says:

    Bruce McCurdy: … and here I was hopeful/expectant to find a happy comments section today.

    Wouldn’t it be nice?

    😉

  96. Offside says:

    ashley: Interesting.I’ve coached for many years and have had a different experience.The parents that have caused the most problems for me are the ones that a) have coached kids at lower levels themselves, b) coach their kids on the way to and back from the game in the car, often telling them to ignore their coaches instructions c) Scream instructions at their kids from the sideline, sometimes contradicting what the coaching staff is trying to do. Usually all three of these go together.

    I had a girl last year who refused to take the ice at the provincial championships.She sat there and cried because her dad brought her to the game (instead of her grandparents) and she couldn’t bear the pressure of him watching and then picking apart her game all the way home in the car.Sad.

    What should we say to our kids after a game?Not much.How about “Did you have fun?” and “I like watching you play”.Then move on to something else because the child already has and they don’t care nearly as much about winning as you do.

    The other group of parents I find challenging are the ones that have never coached before and treat you like the hired help at a fast food restaurant.Like they signed up and paid their entry fee, and now want a superb customer experience.

    Fortunately, the majority of parents are grateful for the volunteer effort and tell me as much.I appreciate the feedback and have never found these parents to get down on me or the team when the victories are not as plentiful as they had hoped.

    Every coach who volunteers year after year will spend a season with a team in the basement of the standings.Somebody has to end up there, but it doesn’t matter much since the focus is long term player development.

    Your identification of problem parents is bang on. But at a premier level (as opposed to community) the kids care alot about winning even though it is usually still less than the parents do. If you don’t win as a coach, you risk losing your star players to better teams which sends everyone into a downward spiral. Trying to balance development with wins to keep everyone happy is more stressful than any volunteer sports commitment should be

  97. Frank the dog says:

    I have an honest question about Russell that I hope doesn’t contravene LT’s directive:
    How has the team fared in terms of wins/losses for games with and without Russell in the lineup?
    I’m seeing comments that the Oilers win more games with him in the lineup than without him in the lineup.
    If that is true then perhaps there is something he is doing that does contribute to the wins.
    If not, then the data correlates with the stats being thrown around.
    Now I am not disputing that there is an overwhelming correlation between possession in the OZ, shots for, and GF, but the point is, if the Oil in fact went on a losing streak when Russell was out of the lineup, wouldn’t that mean that the current stats are missing something?

  98. stevezie says:

    frjohnk,

    As a big Klefbom fan who was (I think) the only person open to trading him for Hamonic, I agree. Probably my biggest ever disagreement with our host. That I doubt he remembers it is probably proof of… something. I’m not sure what.

    Anyone can be traded for the right price.

  99. Confused says:

    With the expansion draft very few Landing spots for defenseman hops only Detroit genuinely has space for such a Defender W Brandon Davidson

    coming back Tomas Tatar

  100. spoiler says:

    stevezie: Anyone can be traded for the right price.

    Apparently for the wrong price too…

  101. ashley says:

    Offside: Your identification of problem parents is bang on. But at a premier level (as opposed to community) the kids care alot about winning even though it is usually still less than the parents do. If you don’t win as a coach, you risk losing your star players to better teams which sends everyone into a downward spiral. Trying to balance development with wins to keep everyone happy is more stressful than any volunteer sports commitment should be

    I coach premier/elite level athletes age 10-17. I think win-at-all-costs misses the point. The attrition at this level is atrocious and the majority quit due the enormous amount of pressure from their parents: “It’s not fun anymore”.

    Close to none of these athletes are ever going to play professional hockey, olympic hockey, or play for team Canada. Yet every parent thinks that is what they have before them.

    This is the essence of the problem.

    These are kids. It’s a game. It’s supposed to be fun.

  102. McSorley33 says:

    Lowetide,

    I think the Oilers sign him in the days after the expansion draft.
    ************************************************************************
    I think you are right…and I think he may get some love offers from some other teams….

    It will be very interesting…

  103. Professor Q says:

    spoiler: Apparently for the wrong price too…

    Carey Price?

  104. Ducey says:

    CrazyCoach: Dynomite stuff Ashley.Not the content, but you’ve shared some of the frustrations many coaches have.

    As far as the car ride home, I actually make it a point to tell parents (first), and my players, that if they want to have a silent car ride home with the ear buds in and not talk about the game, then that should be allowed.No exceptions.I’m sure most parents aren’t as crazy at Patrick O’Sullivan’s, but there’s really nothing to be gained from a car ride discussion.I’ve found that the reality is that 20 minutes after the game, most kids have forgotten about it and are more concerned about where they’re going to eat while the adults agonize about the game for hours/days/weeks/months on end.

    I totally agree with you on the fast food type of parents.Yes, I know hockey is expensive, but the amount of money you pay is not equal to the amount of abuse you can heap on me due to unrealistic expectations.

    Long ago, one exercise I started was measuring expectations.I first would take a pile of index cards into the dressing room and give one to each player and tell them to write their name at the top and write three reasons they play hockey.I do a quick review, then store the cards.At the first parent meeting, I take another set of blank cards and get the parents to write the top three reasons their kids play hockey.After that is done, I slide their kids card towards them and ask them to compare (sometimes contrast) their reasons with their kids.I never ask the parents for their cards and ask them to keep those cards together and in a handy place for their reference.It’s interesting to see the reactions.

    Most parents get into hockey for the right reasons (for their kids to have fun, etc), but the old adage is that 10% of the parents cause 90% of the problems.

    Glad that you coach Ashley.I know the time and dedication it takes.

    Yeah, I have been coaching for 12 years. I keep hoping they change the policy to keep parents from entering the rink. They can watch the game on an app or CCTV.

    For some reason they have decided that if we don’t win todays Div 5 pee wee game, that their kid’s chance at making the NHL will be diminished.

    I especially hate the parents that yell at ~15 yr old refs. They should make the parents grab a whistle and see how they do. They would shut up quick. Its tough.

    I had one grandpa from our team start yelling at the ref last year. The 15 yr old stopped the game and made it clear the game was not going to continue until gramps left the area. He gave us a penalty for unsportsmanlike. I called him over because I had not heard gramps and didn’t know why we had a penalty. He was surprised when I offered congratulations on a good call.

    Gramps was as embarrassed as hell for the rest of the season. To his credit, at least he had the good sense to be. That’s more than some parents.

  105. stevezie says:

    spoiler: Apparently for the wrong price too…

    You win this round.

  106. Frank the dog says:

    I sometimes wonder if we are witnessing PTSD among the fans who have endure 10 long years of losing. For me, the nadir was when fans started throwing Oil jerseys on the ice.

    I no longer care about the past. Not whether Katz intentionally sacrificed Rexall to satisfy some grudge against Northlands for opposing him, or even intentionally tanked the team to get where they got over the last 2 days. I don’t care how good a coach Renney, Krueger, and Todd Nelson were, nor how bad the dementor was. Nor how badly managed Taylor Hall, Naheel Yakupov, and Jeff Petry were managed, nor whether Taylor had off-ice issues.

    All that matters to me right now is that we took on the two leading teams in the Pacific zone and took 2 points off each of them with 0 Bettman points to either team.

    I care that this team is now very likely to make at least a wild card spot in the playoffs, and at their present rate could even make the 2nd round.

    Carpe diem!

  107. classict says:

    Frank the dog:
    I have an honest question about Russell that I hope doesn’t contravene LT’s directive:
    How has the team fared in terms of wins/losses for games with and without Russell in the lineup?
    I’m seeing comments that the Oilers win more games with him in the lineup than without him in the lineup.
    If that is true then perhaps there is something he is doing that does contribute to the wins.
    If not, then the data correlates with the stats being thrown around.
    Now I am not disputing that there is an overwhelming correlation between possession in the OZ, shots for, and GF, but the point is, if the Oil in fact went on a losing streak when Russell was out of the lineup, wouldn’t that mean that the current stats are missing something?

    The problem with that is it was only 7 games. Plenty of things, that are entirely random variance can affect that. A few off games by Talbot, a tough bit of scheduling, it’s impossible to attribute all to one player.

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jesse:
    I believe there is a difference between saying “Kris Russell is playing too high up the batting order, on his offside, and is not in a position to be as effective as you need a defensemen in that spot to be” and “Kris Russell is garbage”.

    Nuance. It’s a thing.

    Used to be.

  109. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    Completely off topic.
    Anybody go to a Ducks game lately? Taking the fam to Disneyland, want to catch a game. ( I wanted to go this past week to fit in the Oiler game, but it didnt work. Grrrr!
    Whats the best way to get tickets? On the website? Anybody just walk up and buy at the box office? Pros cons.
    3 Tier fan here.
    ***********************************************************
    Went last year…glad you are going.

    Just my two cents, but Stubhub has always been good to me….yes, there is the mark up. But they deliver it right to my hotel.

    Centre Ice with Parking pass ( worth it ) – $199 USD plus dumb fees.

    You can have blue line for only $115 USD – plus fees

    Let us know how the trip goes…March 22nd.

  110. treevojo says:

    classict:
    treevojo,

    Interesting that Stauffer today (just saw from Twitter I didn’t have a chance to listen) brought up that 3.5 x 3 would likely not be enough to sign Russell. He’s been pretty close to the last few Oilers moves I think.

    With all the Russell talk on the web today why wouldn’t he chime in.

    Misery sells.

  111. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    So, in attempting to frame it a different way, what do you feel is fair to pay your #5 D-man on a multi-year deal? What do you feel is fair to pay your #3LW?

    Russell, Maroon are found money. Found money is very useful until you decide to pay them above their pay grade.

    Chia has not done anything yet so he deserves kudos for finding both these guys. What do you pay them on their next deals?

    If you pay Maroon like a #1/#2LW or pay Russell like a #3D (ie, Petry money) then I think you are in cap trouble, real quick, and also will wind up with a whole bunch of people crapping on these guys for getting paid a lot (exhibit A, Benoit Pouliot) when they are in fact useful players, just overpaid. So what would be fair on extensions for these guys?

    Maroon for the Pisani post-2006 deal? 4 x $2.5m? We have cap inflation since then so $2.5M likely becomes $3m. Do we want to pay 4 x $3M to 20% shooting percentage Maroon? Again, remember Pouliot? What about Russell? If 3 x $3.5M is not enough then what?

  112. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stevezie: You win this round.

    There was a Happy Gilmore joke opportunity in there that got missed.

  113. Offside says:

    ashley: I coach premier/elite level athletes age 10-17.I think win-at-all-costs misses the point.The attrition at this level is atrocious and the majority quit due the enormous amount of pressure from their parents: “It’s not fun anymore”.

    Close to none of these athletes are ever going to play professional hockey, olympic hockey, or play for team Canada.Yet every parent thinks that is what they have before them.

    This is the essence of the problem.

    These are kids.It’s a game.It’s supposed to be fun.

    I hope you did not take me as saying “win-at-all-costs” was defensible. But I have had kids leave for better teams for a chance to win a provincial championship. And I have it on good authority many times it was their own choice. Now that we have a provincial championship team, no kids leave after the season is over
    All I am saying is elite kids are highly competitive and its best to recognize that fact without creating the conditions that lead to burnout. It is a huge responsibility

  114. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    haters,

    Russell spends time in his own zone on purpose

    Russell allowing the opposition more shots than any other Dman is a part of his greatness!!!

    Now LT’s is home of Alternative Facts.

    I lol’d at this.

  115. Professor Q says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: There was a Happy Gilmore joke opportunity in there that got missed.

    Bob Barker?

  116. CrazyCoach says:

    Offside: Your identification of problem parents is bang on. But at a premier level (as opposed to community) the kids care alot about winning even though it is usually still less than the parents do. If you don’t win as a coach, you risk losing your star players to better teams which sends everyone into a downward spiral. Trying to balance development with wins to keep everyone happy is more stressful than any volunteer sports commitment should be

    Any program that focuses on winning as the only measuring stick, is a program that is doomed to fail.

    Kids in premier programs (I’m assuming rep) still play for fun, and friendship as well as for the excellence aspect of the sport.

    Parents, even at the “Best Ever” level and rep, soon come to realize that their kid will make it in this sport, in spite of any coach they ever have. That is, the cream will truly rise to the top, in spite of all the extra time and money spent on a kid. It’s why kids like Cam Neely play house league till midget then magically appear on a WHL roster, then a 1st round pick.

    Wise parents know that their time with their kids is limited, so it’s just best to sit back and be an encouraging parent to all the kids and their coaches.

    It’s always supposed to be fun.

  117. CrazyCoach says:

    Ducey: Yeah, I have been coaching for 12 years. I keep hoping they change the policy to keep parents from entering the rink. They can watch the game on an app or CCTV.
    For some reason they have decided that if we don’t win todays Div 5 pee wee game, that their kid’s chance at making the NHL will be diminished.
    I especially hate the parents that yell at ~15 yr old refs. They should make the parents grab a whistle and see how they do. They would shut up quick. Its tough.
    I had one grandpa from our team start yelling at the ref last year. The 15 yr old stopped the game and made it clear the game was not going to continue until gramps left the area. He gave us a penalty for unsportsmanlike. I called him over because I had not heard gramps and didn’t know why we had a penalty. He was surprised when I offered congratulations on a good call.
    Gramps was as embarrassed as hell for the rest of the season. To his credit, at least he had the good sense to be. That’s more than some parents.

    Good on that official. He has guts, but his head is in the right place.

    One guy I was doing evaluations with me once asked me that the ideal rep team was 17 orphans.

  118. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Hopefully Chia has learned his lesson from overpaying complimentary players.

    Pay your core.

    Let the other players decide if they would like a few extra dollars or continue riding the mcdavid 🚂 at less then market value.

    If they don’t want to keep riding there will be a lineup of players like them ready to jump on.

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness: Possession isn’t the be all end all, and defensemen need to defend against the best teams like the top 4 did last night more than they need to generate shots for on the other end,

    See, that’s the problem.

    More moving parts, more problems.

    Best machines are simple.

  120. Nate780 says:

    texmex,

    Schultz is on pace for 60 points, just saying

  121. Offside says:

    CrazyCoach: Any program that focuses on winning as the only measuring stick, is a program that is doomed to fail.

    Kids in premier programs (I’m assuming rep) still play for fun, and friendship as well as for the excellence aspect of the sport.

    Parents, even at the “Best Ever” level and rep, soon come to realize that their kid will make it in this sport, in spite of any coach they ever have.That is, the cream will truly rise to the top, in spite of all the extra time and money spent on a kid.It’s why kids like Cam Neely play house league till midget then magically appear on a WHL roster, then a 1st round pick.

    Wise parents know that their time with their kids is limited, so it’s just best to sit back and be an encouraging parent to all the kids and their coaches.

    It’s always supposed to be fun.

    Philosophically, I agree with you but its not so cut and dry. I’ve seen other clubs use tactics that are shocking in attempts to win and show no signs of failing. I really wish they did. I’ve seen coaches scream at goalies so hard that the kid leaves the field and other coaches encouraging the injury of other players. It is deplorable.
    It is always supposed to be fun but losing takes its toll too. I won’t get into the talent vs hard work but considering how much time and effort kids put into sports these days, Cam Neely types will be the rare exception

  122. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo,

    Yup. I agree 100%. That’s really the only reason why I caution on Russell and Maroon. Chia already paid one complementary player $6M x 7 years. (Right now that is what Lucic is–he is not driving offense by himself)

    Can’t afford any more.

    There should be a host of Vrbatas and Vaneks and other UFAs looking to play with McDavid for a year and cash in the following year.

  123. Lowetide says:

    Nate780:
    texmex,

    Schultz is on pace for 60 points, just saying

    If only the Oilers had the maturity as an organization and a team, to bring him along at pace. Schultz is a cautionary tale for all teams in that regard. I am happy he is doing so well.

  124. frjohnk says:

    McSorley33: Went last year…glad you are going.
    Just my two cents, but Stubhub has always been good to me….yes, there is the mark up. But they deliver it right to my hotel.
    Centre Ice with Parking pass ( worth it ) – $199 USD plus dumb fees.
    You can have blue line for only $115 USD – plus fees
    Let us know how the trip goes

    thanks….will do.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson: Well, he doesn’t have a great track record when placing bets with Bendelson…so, there’s that.

    Woot!Woot!

    Fuck you Bendelson

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    But assigning value to those shots you change quantitative data into qualitative data therefore what you are saying isn’t quite 100% true

    You’re right if you are assigning value to the shot.

    I haven’t used on “expected” metrics here or on my blog for a while now though.

  127. blainer says:

    N64:
    Ok. Hands up all of you who predicted tied for first in points in the Pacific at the All Star Break?
    Or leading the Pacific in goal differential?

    And look at the company 1 pt ahead and behind:

    Pittsburgh 65
    Montreal 65
    Chicago65

    San Jose 64
    Edmonton 64

    NY Rangers 63
    Anaheim63

    It’s almost enough to lose all faith in their ability to fall out of a playoff spot.

    Oh and remind me again why California teams have 7 of the 11 All Star spots.

    Me !!

    I predicted that the OIL will win their division and possibly the conference..

    My prediction was for 109 points. We are gonna have to really haul ass to make that number.. it is still possible but unlikely. Suspect we come in around 104 points to win the division.

    We are riding the hottest goalie in hockey right now I believe.

    Corsi took a bit of hit on the road but I believe it comes back in March big time with all those home games.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    haters,

    Micro stats or wtvr you want to call them are being tracked. They directly threaten the foothold other stat sites have by undermining the conclusions their numbers imply.
    It’s a big battle for relevancy and money and quite frankly I could care less.
    I’m just enjoying my team winning.

    This shows that you know nothing about either side.

    Any metric is only useful for predicting the future if it shows it predicts the future.

    This is the difference between descriptive metrics and predictive metrics.

    Shot metric’s predictive ability of goal share is well established. It can vary from year to year but is established.

    There is no established predictive ability of most of these mircro stats.

    Russell’s passes are hailed as goal makers by micro stat people. Then the next year every single center he plays with gets less goals when with him than without.

    That’s not your side winning. Its your side being show as irrelevant.

    Its also shows you have an axe to grind as you have “a side”

    I just pay attention to everything and try to value things that show they can predict future goal share.

    If someone opens up a black micro stats box and show it can predicts goals I’ll value that as well.


    True things
    You said RNH and RyJo are equal in ability and used stats to defend your position.

    We can all agree that RNH is having an awful year.

    5v5 pts/60 this year:
    RNH – 1.36
    RyJo – 1.51

    There’s a very good argument that RyJo’s most common wingers of Forsberg and Arvidsson are much better than Eberle and Pouliot as well.

    Are you sure I was wrong?


    I think a month ago or so you came on Alan’s show and pontificated for about 3 mins about Hall for Larsson. From this I derived you do not value the defensive side of the game as much as offense.
    Would you trade him back for Hall

    You derive incorrectly.

    Any impact, offensive or defensive has to move the needle in total Goal Share % (GF%)

    Historically Hall moves that needle and Larsson much less so.

    I trade him back in a heartbeat.

    You may have noticed that the Oilers wins come fast and furious when they have secondary scoring.

    I predicted before the Hall trade that the Oilers would be a top 5 team because they could ice two 1st lines with Hall-RNH-Eberle as the 2nd line.

    They had been a reasonable 1st line with shit D, so they would be better with decent D.

    The Oilers have been full value in January as finally the have some semblance of a 2nd line. Imagine that 2nd line being better and being better starting Oct 1st. They’d be a top 5 team in the league.

    Do the splits with Russell in the lineup opposed to out.
    * drops mic *
    ^^

    Oilers haven’t lost a game in which Slepeshev has played.

    Does that mean Sleppy is the key to everything?

    Pick that mic up, it must have slipped.

  129. Georges says:

    frjohnk:
    Today this blog gets heated just talking about Russell.

    Wait until the Oilers sign him to term and then trade Klefbom.

    Its not so far fetched.

    Sekera has a NMC and is their best Dman
    Oilers love Nurse.

    Oilers like Russell, so they may feel keeping those 3 on the left side and trading for help to the right side is the way to go for next year.

    Our D next year IF THEY SIGN RUSSELL

    Sekera-New guy
    Nurse-Larsson
    Russell-Benning
    Reinhart( cause we lose Davidson to expansion and because Reinhart has to clear waivers, the Oilers will not be sending him down)

    Keeping Russell and trading Klefbom? Wow.

    Luckily they have the stretch run and multiple (fingers crossed) playoff rounds to see if these two players are who they think they are.

  130. Georges says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    treevojo,

    Yup. I agree 100%. That’s really the only reason why I caution on Russell and Maroon. Chia already paid one complementary player $6M x 7 years. (Right now that is what Lucic is–he is not driving offense by himself)

    Can’t afford any more.

    There should be a host of Vrbatas and Vaneks and other UFAs looking to play with McDavid for a year and cash in the following year.

    I agree 33%.

    I’m guessing Maroon is part of Chia’s core. He has more than his shooting percentage going for him. Lately sh% hasn’t been going for him. He still does stuff you’d want from your core players (see last night’s first goal). Nuge and Ebs are probably not part of Chia’s current core. Playoffs will tell him what he needs to know about those two.

    Lucic is a Cup winner and two time finalist. He’s been a valuable part of winning programs. This year, he gets paid $2M to be in the dressing room and on the team bus. He gets paid $2M to reduce runs taken at our players per 60. And then he gets $2M to score. At that price, he’s a great deal for the scoring he’s produced.

    Please don’t overpay Russell.

  131. classict says:

    Georges,

    4 million to be tough and good in the locker room? Better lock Hendricks up for a few more years.

  132. Younger Oil says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Oilers haven’t lost a game in which Slepeshev has played.

    I know this isn’t the main takeaway from your points, but that is actually remarkable.

    That must be a huge boost to his confidence.

    Though it must be super frustrating as a player being taken out of the lineup when the team has won literally every game you’ve played in.

    Especially when the team (assumedly) is 5-15-8 without you in the lineup.

  133. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Pick that mic up, it must have slipped.

    Better yet, just put it down…

  134. OF17 says:

    My favorite thing about Andrej Sekera might be his freaky ability to keep pucks in at the line. It’s incredible. It’s a huge part of what makes him such a good PP defenseman IMO.

    Klefbom though appears to be beating Sekera in every part of 5v4. Those two are the only two with 100+ mins of PP time, and neither has hit 120, so SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT. These are the only two guys we can even begin to analyze by shot counts 5v4. Nonetheless,

    TOI: 115 vs 115
    CF%: 92.00 vs 86.16
    FF%: 90.97 vs 82.66
    xGF%: 91.32 vs 85.88
    GF%: 93.75 vs 87.50

    Oddities in the stats include Klefbom having a 5% higher on-ice FO% 5v4. Klef’s PDO is a half a point higher as well. Might explain some of the difference, but still. Sekera is a good PP defenseman. How good might Klef be?

  135. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Georges,

    Chia should overpay neither one. I am just asking him to not do that when he re-signs them. I guess we disagree on Lucic’s value. I don’t think he is bad, just that so far he has not been worth his contract.

  136. Georges says:

    WG,

    Weird dynamic here today, instigated by one unreasonable post that should have been ALL CAPS. Then all kinds of reasonable posts in response. It’s a well-lit corner of the internet, LT’s place, with haters over there and coach over here and the Bruces and stevezie and treevojo and chachi and oscarmike and nycoil and everyone else wandering in and out.

    I enjoy our exchanges on here. I can see the thinking and effort that went in to what you say. This provokes thinking and effort on my end. You regularly teach me things about the game. I’m hoping the Oilers win 3 cups with CMD and the next day, you’ll post that they could’ve won 4 with CMD+Hall.

    Cheers, sir!

  137. Georges says:

    classict:
    Georges,

    4 million to be tough and good in the locker room? Better lock Hendricks up for a few more years.

    Classic.

  138. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Georges,

    Chia should overpay neither one. I am just asking him to not do that when he re-signs them. I guess we disagree on Lucic’s value. I don’t think he is bad, just that so far he has not been worth his contract.

    I thought the lucic contract was given for more then just his 5v5 production.

    I took it as Chia’s signal to the media, fans, rest of the league and more importantly the players in the dressing room that Edmonton is no longer an old boys club that will tolerate being the laughing stock of the league.

    I’m glad he is one of the core Oiler players.

  139. jimmers2 says:

    CrazyCoach,

    CrazyCoach,

    I read your comment last night, my sympathies regarding your father. I always look forward to seeing a post from you when I come here, I seem to always find something to learn in them. One is supposed to learn wisdom from one’s elders, I bet your father was worth listening very closely to as well.

    All the best

  140. treevojo says:

    Georges: I agree 33%.

    I’m guessing Maroon is part of Chia’s core. He has more than his shooting percentage going for him. Lately sh% hasn’t been going for him. He still does stuff you’d want from your core players (see last night’s first goal). Nuge and Ebs are probably not part of Chia’s current core. Playoffs will tell him what he needs to know about those two.

    Lucic is a Cup winner and two time finalist. He’s been a valuable part of winning programs. This year, he gets paid $2M to be in the dressing room and on the team bus. He gets paid $2M to reduce runs taken at our players per 60. And then he get $2M to score. At that price, he’s a great deal for the scoring he’s produced.

    Please don’t overpay Russell.

    Maroon has been gold since the first day he donned an oiler uniform.

    With another year on his contract I see no reason why Chia would sign him before the trade deadline next year.

    If I was the gm I would give him my offer before free agency next summer based on his 2 full years as an oiler and let him decide if he would rather take a ufa offer from another team.

    The oilers no longer have to give out sweetheart deals or beg players to stay.

  141. Georges says:

    OF17:
    My favorite thing about Andrej Sekera might be his freaky ability to keep pucks in at the line. It’s incredible. It’s a huge part of what makes him such a good PP defenseman IMO.

    Klefbom though appears to be beating Sekera in every part of 5v4. Those two are the only two with 100+ mins of PP time, and neither has hit 120, so SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT. These are the only two guys we can even begin to analyze by shot counts 5v4. Nonetheless,

    TOI: 115 vs 115
    CF%: 92.00 vs 86.16
    FF%: 90.97 vs 82.66
    xGF%: 91.32 vs 85.88
    GF%: 93.75 vs 87.50

    Oddities in the stats include Klefbom having a 5% higher on-ice FO% 5v4. Klef’s PDO is a half a point higher as well. Might explain some of the difference, but still. Sekera is a good PP defenseman. How good might Klef be?

    I think coaches give more ice time to defensemen who generate more shots. SF60 is the metric on which high ice-time defensemen distinguish themselves at 5v5. Keeping pucks in clearly contributes to SF60. I’m going to have to pay more attention to Sekera now that you’ve pointed this out.

  142. jm363561 says:

    Good Saturday morning from Manila. Read half the thread – not cool folks, just not fucking cool at all. Going back to zzzzzzzzz.

  143. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo,

    Man, I seem to have such difficulty communicating with people I almost want to give up.

    I did not say that Lucic was signed only for his point production.

    What I AM saying is that if you are paying someone 6 million x 7 years I bet you are hoping for last year’s LA Kings Lucic. So far this season he has only had a handful of games of that calibre. Otherwise he has been a bit behind the play.

    Culture change is good and all that and important but I don’t think Lucic has been full value for his pay so far, do you?

    Perhaps we also define core slightly differently. Mine is more narrow. McDavid, Leon, Puljujarvi. Perhaps Talbot. Most likely Klefbom and Larsson. That is the current core.

    Lucic, Maroon, Eberle, Nuge right now are what I would call important support pieces. They are not so essential that you could not see them being replaced.

    I am glad Lucic is an Oiler. Just not a fan of the contract and I really hope he can pick up his points soon. I bet that come playoffs time I will be eating my words and he will be worth every penny. But not so far to this point.

    Is that a better explanation?

    As for Maroon, I am singing his praises. I am just saying to be cautious about paying him like Pouliot. I see the two of them in similar circumstances (when Pouliot signed here).

    I wanted Pouliot signed. I was happy we did. I was unhappy with the price. First two years I ate crow. Now not so much. If he made 2.5m per no one would complain quite so much. I just wonder if Maroon could live up to a 5x 4m per deal if he signed here. Now I know we don’t know the numbers yet but if he puts up 30…that is not far-fetched.

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    haters: Dramatic much ?
    Get real

    I was told by both fancy stats types and seen em good types that I was wrong.

    I lived it.

    Gmoney did a whole lot of work to prove me wrong, but found out I had a good point.

    Again, your skewed memory of something you weren’t really involved with has nothing in common with what actually happened or was said/written.

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryder,

    Thank you.

    I really appreciate that.

  146. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I quoted you not to disagree with anything you said.

    I just wanted to give my opinion on the subject.

    I don’t think we are having a breakdown in communication unless you take my comments as direct contrast to what you have wrote.

  147. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I quoted you not to disagree with anything you said.

    I just wanted to give my opinion on the subject.

    I don’t think we are having a breakdown in communication unless you take my comments as direct contrast to what you have wrote.

    Understood. I thought you were referencing me so I thought I failed to articulate clearly.

  148. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    You did well. I cautioned on Talbot’s sample size. Saw him good in MSG and I was a fan. Just did not know if he was capable of a starter’s workload. Happy to see he is. Kudos for believing in him.

    Not that I was unhappy we got him. His stats were better than Lundqvist’s. Just was not as sure as you were on the workload thing.

  149. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Understood. I thought you were referencing me so I thought I failed to articulate clearly.

    No not at all.

    I just like to link people into the comment I am making if it has some relation to a subject they were talking about.

    That way it doesn’t feel like I am just having a conversation with myself.

    If I feel like you have said something I disagree with I will start off with. “NYCOIL I disagree with you because……..”

    Maybe this will clear up some of our conversations from now on and hopefully you won’t immediately go on the defensive. Cool 😎

  150. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bruce Wayne,

    Shot metrics cannot be wrong. It is just counting shots. There is nothing fancy about them

    This is key.

    They are not even stats.

    They are counts.

    To clarify aren’t counts stats though? Like we count goals to make stats?

  151. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer,

    GMoney is doing the number crunching and Woodguy the enforcer will make sure there is strict obedience to this new metric and anyone who questions it will be ridiculed.

    This is the single most bizarre thing I’ve read on the internet.

  152. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    leadfarmer,

    GMoney is doing the number crunching and Woodguy the enforcer will make sure there is strict obedience to this new metric and anyone who questions it will be ridiculed.

    This is the single most bizarre thing I’ve read on the internet.

    That almost sounded like ridicule.

    LOL

  153. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: and

    You don’t get around much then

  154. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    leadfarmer,

    GMoney is doing the number crunching and Woodguy the enforcer will make sure there is strict obedience to this new metric and anyone who questions it will be ridiculed.

    This is the single most bizarre thing I’ve read on the internet.

  155. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    leadfarmer,

    GMoney is doing the number crunching and Woodguy the enforcer will make sure there is strict obedience to this new metric and anyone who questions it will be ridiculed.

    This is the single most bizarre thing I’ve read on the internet.

    Please don’t take any of this madness seriously. Please.

  156. Gerta Rauss says:

    spoiler: Wouldn’t it be nice?

    I see what you did there…well done

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    haters:
    HATERS says:
    January 27, 2017 at 12:03 pm
    My fault guys.
    He egged me on and I went for it.
    My bad

    You took two hard shots at me early in the thread before I even engaged you.

    That is not me “egging you on”

    That’s you “inviting me to fight”

  158. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    I love how fast Slepychev gets that puck off his stick!

  159. russ99 says:

    Jesse: This represents an interesting perspective that was contested by Dellow a while back when he was discussing Anton Stralman’s effect on his team’s offence.

    There’s a difference between an “offensive defenseman” and a puck moving defenseman who gets the play going the right way.

    The difference is the same difference you see when you compare Justin Schultz to Jeff Petry.

    I don’t know many people who are advocating for a justin schultz/MA Bergeron type to go beside Sekera. The general train of thought seems to be that someone like Petry, Stralman, or Benning would be effective there. Obviously those three differ in terms of talent level, but the model is the same.

    It’s like Daryll Sutter says, if you’re effectively getting the puck out of your zone, you don’t have to play as much Kris Russell style defense. If you can’t do that very effectively (and Kris Russell can’t), then you have lots of opportunity to show the world how effective you are at playing inside your own zone.

    So it really has nothing to do with “offensive defensemen” and it has everything to do with playing the game on your own terms.

    There is just a staggering amount of evidence for this, I’m not really sure what grounds someone has to disagree. Anyone is obviously welcome to disagree, but I have to ask, what are you basing this on?

    The Daryl Sutter quote is opinion and not fact. Defense exists, watch any playoff game.

    No matter how hard you try to stop at the line or try to get the puck out and going the other way, the opposition will be getting shots in on your goaltender. There has to be value to players that contest these shots thus making the load easier on your goaltender, and giving him a better chance of success,

    We scored 4 goals last night, and our goaltender helped by his defenders made that stick. How many more extra goals do we really need due to doing a better job of stopping the opposition on entry and fast breakouts?

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