ADDITIONS AT THE DEADLINE

Peter Chiarelli has his NHL team in a very good spot at the All-Star break. Now what? Well, that is the question. What can PC do to make this team better, without sacrificing needed draft picks and prospects? Remember our look at the prospects back in December? There is a real need at LW, RW and RHD. Who might be leaving, and who might be coming in during the next six weeks? Let’s have a look.

LEAVING

  1. 2017 first-round pick—No. 23 or so this year. Appears to be enough talent to get a good prospect there.
  2. 2018 first-round pick—No. 23? Seems like a reasonable estimate.
  3. Brandon Davidson—He has good value, reasonable contract has one more year. I am uncertain as to his value, but if healthy BD can play an effective top 6D role.
  4. Benoit Pouliot—He has been rumored to be on the block for some time, it is uncertain how much value he will bring. May end up being a ‘salary match’ in a deal for another veteran (Hanzal, et cetera).
  5. 2018 second-round pick—No. 54?
  6. Caleb Jones—He has good speed, some offense, and is one of Edmonton’s more famous prospects.
  7. Jujhar Khaira—I think NHL teams would like his size and future contract.
  8. Ethan Bear—RH defender with a big shot from the point.
  9. Anton Slepyshev—He may have a future in Edmonton, but plans change.
  10. Griffin Reinhart—Famous prospect with high draft pedigree, play is improving.
  11. 2017 third-round pick (No. 82)—No idea if the draft stretches this deep.

ARRIVING?

  • LD Daniel Brickley was mentioned as a player of interest back in October, we are a little over one month away from the college signing season opening. He is a bigger defender (6.03, 205) and has some substantial offense in his game. His NHLE is rocking around 40 points this season and you can read more about him here.
  • I posted a large list of possibles yesterday. Probables for the NHL roster after the deadline? Cannot say.
  • I think there is at least a chance Laurent Brossoit will be on this roster March 2, with no goalie acquired.
  • I think there is at least a chance the Oilers retain all of their current defenders, including IR, and run with 8D through the end of the season and into the playoffs.
  • I think there is a chance Edmonton trades Benoit Pouliot for a pick.
  • I think the Oilers will acquire a forward, and he will be a center (or can play center).

NEW VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER, D

The Vollman is back in business! I love this chart, it helps me view the defense on a line and makes sense to me. Rob’s graph tells us (and we know this, but it helps to view this way) Kris Russell and Adam Larsson are facing tough opposition and zone starts (via NaturalStatTrick). Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Matt Benning and Darnell Nurse are close behind, and the blue bubbles tell us they are having real success (and the CorsiforRel graph at the bottom is an excellent addition).

Seeing this graph, I am more encouraged about the idea of running the current group, adding Nurse and running through the end of the season. Injuries and slumps change things, but this blue has been holding up pretty well over the season.

NEW VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER, F

Here are the forwards, and again it is what we might expect (but still good to see it). Todd McLellan is giving the McDavid line as much of a push as he can, and the opposition is trying to run him through the slicer dicer. The top two lines (and friends) are all in the same quadrant, and all but Nuge have a nice healthy blue bubble. I imagine RNH will turn blue as time goes. Credit to McLellan, he is getting clean air for the Caggiula line, expect that is the trio that gets some repair at the deadline. More on these charts tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

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33 Responses to "ADDITIONS AT THE DEADLINE"

  1. TO10801 says:

    If they trade Pouliot does that not mean we need a couple F’s at the deadline. So say you trade Poo for Read and say you trade picks to get Boyle. Is this lineup better than what we could have if we just got BOyle for the third line?

    Maroon-McD-Drai
    Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    Caggiula-Boyle-Read
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    Personally I would rather have Pouliot and see what can be done in the summer.

  2. Lowetide says:

    TO10801:
    If they trade Pouliot does that not mean we need a couple F’s at the deadline. So say you trade Poo for Read and say you trade picks to get Boyle. Is this lineup better than what we could have if we just got BOyle for the third line?

    Maroon-McD-Drai
    Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    Caggiula-Boyle-Read
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    Personally I would rather have Pouliot and see what can be done in the summer.

    I think the Oilers will add a center for the 3line, move Lucic up and then run the 4line with more speed:

    Maroon—McDavid—Leon
    Lucic—Nuge—Eberle
    Slepyshev—Hanzal—Puljujarvi
    Caggiula/Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian

    Something like that.

  3. Pouzar says:

    I vote for Brian Boyle (courtesy of Supernova).
    Cheap expiring contract with good Wood$$ stats.

  4. lynn says:

    I hope Jujhar Khaira remains in the Oilers’ organization beyond this season, but as you wrote, LT, Khaira may be an attractive player in trade talks–young, big, emerging NHL-level skills, low-cost contract.

    I want Khaira to prosper at the NHL level. I hope it is with the Oilers.

  5. TO10801 says:

    Lowetide,

    I see. I don’t necessarily think that is a great idea. That 3line will have a tough time finding clean air on the road, and at home it would be nice to have Hanzel take on the tough opposition. I don’t think he is suited for a soft-minutes line as well as he is to be on a “checking” line. You probably want him taking on Getzlaf/Perry in the playoffs.

    The one positive would be Hanzel coming off the books next year and not having pouliot for 2 years. I think you still need another veteran W in this scenario though

  6. D says:

    Pouliot was clutch for the Rangers in the playoffs a few years back. Not saying he shouldn’t be traded, but if he is still on the Oilers roster at the end of the regular season, don’t be surprised if he pulls a Pisani in the post season.

  7. Lowetide says:

    TO10801:
    Lowetide,

    I see. I don’t necessarily think that is a great idea. That 3line will have a tough time finding clean air on the road, and at home it would be nice to have Hanzel take on the tough opposition. I don’t think he is suited for a soft-minutes line as well as he is to be on a “checking” line. You probably want him taking on Getzlaf/Perry in the playoffs.

    The one positive would be Hanzel coming off the books next year and not having pouliot for 2 years. I think you still need another veteran W in this scenario though

    Yes. Ideally, you keep Pouliot and add Hanzal, allowing coach McLellan to run a young winger like Slepyshev or Puljujarvi on the other side.

  8. TO10801 says:

    D,

    That’s kind of my thought with him. He has no value this year after a terrible first half. How much worse could it possibly get by the offseason. If he has a great playoff run then great cash him in and if he doesnt then maybe your stuck with him. I don’t see Arizona taking him for Hanzal unless we offer a better package of picks/prospects than a team who just offers futures.

  9. TO10801 says:

    Lowetide,

    Your Berglund idea is probably more realistic though. I think ARI is going to want a lot for Hanzel, but the Blues might be interested in moving Berglund especially if they want to hold onto Shattenkirk. I am very interested to see the direction Chia chooses though. He is very hard to predict.

  10. go_oil says:

    Should be an interesting month ahead… how do you balance keeping current chemistry/mix of players winning, while adding depth and picks? Do you sacrifice one for the other? Can you do both? Has Chiarelli done all of his heavy lifting? I can see them adding a veteran goalie and depth on the wing/centre and putting the 3rd round Yakupov pick in play.

    I could see them trying to upgrade from Pouliot, Hendricks and Lander (would love to see
    Poullot break out of his offensive slump instead) and putting Caggulia on the wing with a veteran centre. Would love to see Boyle, Berglund or Hanzal but the cost may be too dear. I think Draisaitl stays on McDavid’s wing.

    I don’t mind the defensive depth when everyone gets healthy…

  11. go_oil says:

    lynn,

    I agree, I hope Khaira sticks around – I think he’s ready to replace Hendricks on the 4th line.

  12. TO10801 says:

    go_oil,

    I think what the deadline will tell us is whether Chia thinks this team can contend now or if he thinks they are a year away. I think he probably adds someone like Vrbata and Berra for cheap and calls it a day.

  13. Scungilli says:

    With so may teams technically in the hunt for a wildcard at least it’s hard to figure who’ll be the sellers. A GM probably has to wait until the fan base would see the race as over for them.

    To me it makes sense that an established team (meaning with a full roster and spending to their cash budget) can only pay one player to fill one position, in other words the cap doesn’t leave room to have 6 top 4 D after ELC’s are done, generally speaking. Especially if one contract is heavy. Same with forwards, to my reckoning teams carry 7-8 bigger forward contracts. One goalie.

    St Louis has 3 top 4 RD. The Jets are in the same position. There will be 2 top RD available from those teams at some point, unless they play them wrong side which seems like a bad idea as the rarity of top RD means that they can fill that LD position with a lesser contract and save cap, not to mention the loss of effectiveness. Trouba has said he doesn’t like playing LD because it makes him less effective.

    http://www.metronews.ca/news/winnipeg/2016/09/25/coach-weighs-in-on-jacob-trouba-trade-request.html

    I suppose at the end of the day if players are added it depends on cost. I think there is a track record of Chia keeping his powder dry. If he can get Vanek/Vrbata cheap enough Leon plays centre. If he gets a centre, so be it. I don’t think they are looking for short term help at D. TOI suggests they trust Russell, and counting on Nurse would be risky, look how wobbly Davidson is still.

  14. DBO says:

    Wonder if Buffalo could be an interesting answer for a few needs. No centre that fits, but Gionta at RW as the vet Pisani style and for the third straight year of rumours at RD, Cody Franson. Could be interesting in regards to moving Draisatl back to C, and balancing out the lines out, then allowing McClellan to stack top 2 or 3 lines if needed with Draisatl on RW with McDavid. ALa San Jose for many years.

  15. Gino says:

    When looking at the ages of the players on the AHL team in comparison to the competition very few 20 & 21 year old’s. This team needs it’s future picks or requires to add more. Last year’s moves of adding College free agent’s addressed the teams shortcomings. For this team to move forward C.Jones, Bear, Benson and others need to play a prominent rule in the AHL.

  16. Lowetide says:

    I think Franson is an interesting name, but only if they decide to include him and exit Eric Gryba. I like Larsson and Benning a lot as RHDs, and McLellan uses the Sekera—Russell pairing heavily. I think at this point it is a lot about what the coach is comfortable running.

  17. DBO says:

    Lowetide,

    True. I guess that would be dependent on if they moved Russell for something else and felt Benning was ready for 2RD work, and balancing out the back end with Franson and adding a bomb from the Point for the PP. More about asset use.

    Trade Russell for a 2nd/3rd.
    Trade a 4/5th and prospect (from Leftorium) for Franson.

    With Nurse healthy and Benning improving, it would make sense to balance it out and add a missing PP option. Also would mean they keep Davidson as the 6/7th dman until Nurse is back and then, as per above, they can run with 8 dman down the stretch.

  18. Lowetide says:

    DBO:
    Lowetide,

    True. I guess that would be dependent on if they moved Russell for something else and felt Benning was ready for 2RD work, and balancing out the back end with Franson and adding a bomb from the Point for the PP. More about asset use.

    Trade Russell for a 2nd/3rd.
    Trade a 4/5th and prospect (from Leftorium) for Franson.

    With Nurse healthy and Benning improving, it would make sense to balance it out and add a missing PP option. Also would mean they keep Davidson as the 6/7th dman until Nurse is back and then, as per above, they can run with 8 dman down the stretch.

    If I had to guess:

    1. Pouliot traded for apick
    2. A pick/prospect dealt for a veteran center
    3. Russell signed in the offseason

  19. Scungilli says:

    LT do you know what counts as a CHL season? I can’t find it anywhere, I suppose Benson’s first WHL season doesn’t count as one given it was 7 games, or he’d be eligible for AHL next year having 4 CHL seasons.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Scungilli:
    LT do you know what counts as a CHL season? I can’t find it anywhere, I suppose Benson’s first WHL season doesn’t count as one given it was 7 games, or he’d be eligible for AHL next year having 4 CHL seasons.

    That is an amazingly good question and I cannot tell you. Curtis Hamilton spent four years and moved on, but he played 68 games in year one and turned 20 in November of that year.

  21. Professor Q says:

    Or, instead of trading away all of our most talented prospects, we could keep them?

  22. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q:
    Or, instead of trading away all of our most talented prospects, we could keep them?

    This is the correct play, in my opinion.

  23. Woogie63 says:

    Maroon-McDavid – VANEK
    Lucic- Driasaitl – Eberle
    Pouilot – Hopkins – Slepyshev
    Caggulia-Letestu – Kassian

    Klefblom-Larrson
    Sekera- Russell
    Nurse- Benning

    Talbot
    LB

    Gets us past the first round…

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t see Pouliot being traded at or before the deadline.

    For the first time in many years, any moves made at the deadline would be with a view to improving the current roster for a playoff push. Notwithstanding his very poor season, trading the 2/3 LW for futures is not the type of trade the team will be looking to make this deadline (even without taking in to account his previous playoff success).

    Yes, PC may be looking to move his cap hit for next season, however, I think that’s a move more likely in the off-season.

  25. Confused says:

    Think people are getting carried away, JP will be good to go for playoffs

    Darnell and JJ wil be back, so let the youth run.

    If not this year, the experience will get things fired up for next year.

    Unless you can get a very cheap rental run with the boys that got you into the race.

    We need to be in the race for the next decade at least, do not trade away the future.

    Go oil go!

  26. go_oil says:

    TO10801,

    A nice push this year would be nice – I’d be happy if they could add a Vrbata/Vanek and a Berra.

  27. JDï™ says:

    Professor Q:
    Or, instead of trading away all of our most talented prospects, we could keep them?

    Pfft… how many Cup rings do you own?

    😉

  28. Jethro Tull says:

    Still trying to get my head around somehow keeping our blue chip prospects whilst dealing our dross and bit parts for quality NHL rentals for a playoff push and at the same time trading some vets we need for said playoff push for draft picks to restock the dross and bit parts we traded for NHL rentals. I could keep going round and round.

    It’s like the old trades saying: Good, fast, cheap. Pick any two. You won’t get the third.

  29. Yeti says:

    Jethro Tull: It’s like the old trades saying: Good, fast, cheap. Pick any two. You won’t get the third.

    What if we add ‘sexy’ to the list? Good, fast, cheap, sexy. Can we get three of those?

  30. PhrankLee says:

    As much as I’d like to strike deep into the playoffs, I believe the play should be to collect picks and not trade them.

    We are extremely shy of prospects.

    Dangerously so, imo.

  31. russ99 says:

    We need to sign Draisaitl this summer, so moving Pouliot could be imperative to free up cap room for the summer additions needed to push this roster in to balance and real contention.

    Also, that’s one less forward to protect, so we could protect a non-FA rental from Vegas.

    Maroon – McDavid – Draisaitl
    Lucic – RNH – Eberle
    Caggulia – X – Slepyshev
    X – Letestu – Kassian

    Sekera- Russell
    Klefblom – Larsson
    Davidson/Nurse- Benning

    Talbot
    X / Brossoit

  32. speeds says:

    russ99:
    We need to sign Draisaitl this summer, so moving Pouliot could be imperative to free up cap room for the summer additions needed to push this roster in to balance and real contention.

    Depends what other moves they might be looking at, whether the cap goes up, whether they give LD a 1yr deal to maximize cap room for CMD’s last ELC year, etc.

    But, Hendricks, Russell, and Ference leaving as UFA’s opens up ~8M in cap space alone, maybe 5M if you replace them with 3 – 1M players.

  33. Yeti says:

    russ99: We need to sign Draisaitl this summer, so moving Pouliot could be imperative to free up cap room for the summer additions needed to push this roster in to balance and real contention.
    Also, that’s one less forward to protect, so we could protect a non-FA rental from Vegas.

    Might they simply not protect him and hope LA takes him?

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