OILERS ACQUIRE HENRIK SAMUELSSON

The Edmonton Oilers made a trade today, adding a name that we discussed at length back in 2012 leading up to the draft. In what is clearly an unusual deal, the Oilers traded 2012 second-round selection Mitchell Moroz for the man they hoped would fall to them—power forward Henrik Samuelsson. I ranked him No. 23 on draft day:

  • R Henrik Samuelsson NHLE 6-14-20. PF and a player whose draft stock rose through the spring as he helped power the Oil Kings to the Memorial Cup. Size/skill combination makes him a terrific prospect, and he’s right in the wheelhouse for a team like Edmonton. He might be a perfect fit. Source

Samuelsson has had an unusual pro career, derailed by injuries (concussion, ankle) after his junior career. If we compare the two men at the AHL level, Samuelsson is clearly the better offensive prospect.

  • Henrik Samuelsson 2014-15 (20) 68gp, 18-22-40 (NHLE: 23)
  • Henrik Samuelsson 2015-16 (21) 43gp, 3-9-12 (NHLE: 11)
  • Henrik Samuelsson 2016-17 (22) 20gp, 2-1-3 (NHLE: 6)

Year one looked good, the last Oilers F prospect to have an NHLE of 23 at age 20 was Teemu Hartikainen, and the Finn’s 20-year old season is a really good comparable for Samuelsson at the same age.

  • Mitchell Moroz 2014-15 (20) 66gp, 5-4-9 (NHLE: 5)
  • Mitchell Moroz 2015-16 (21) 40gp, 5-5-10 (NHLE: 10)
  • Mitchell Moroz 2016-17 (22) 17gp, 1-2-3 (NHLE: 7)

As was the case with the Oil Kings, Samuelsson and Moroz were never going to apply for the same job in pro hockey. Samuelsson has (had) more offensive ability, while Moroz has (had) utility as a checking winger although we have not seen evidence he brought it with him to pro hockey.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

This trade is a Billy Preston. Now, it may be a different story two years from now, but at this point giving each of these young men a fresh start is likely the strongest reason to make the deal. I think the Oilers got the better player, but have no real idea about his health and that could be the major story in his resume. His issues this year have not be disclosed (that I have seen), so this is a mystery train as it leaves the station. Samuelsson last played January 28 and AHL Stats suggests he is playing a little over 11 minutes a night. He has played center and wing in his career. I believe he is only the second man to play for the Oilers after being born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (Bob Beers). Both men involved in the deal are RFAs after the season, one suspects their performances will impact the possibility of a new deal with each new club.

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103 Responses to "OILERS ACQUIRE HENRIK SAMUELSSON"

  1. StixMalone says:

    Bob Green must’ve been involved in this one….

  2. meanashell11 says:

    Very dirty player, I hope he can get his act together in Bakersfield.

  3. Rondo says:

    StixMalone,

    They have a crush on that Oil king team. Don’t know if there are any NHL players on that team.

  4. N64 says:

    Won’t bother posting any of the hysteria when the Oil took Moroz early, but it is funny how found money and cosmic disaster top of the 2nd washed out to equal trade value.

    http://lowetide.ca/2012/06/22/draft-2012-day-one-all-will-be-revealed/comment-page-1/#comment-177819

    WOODGUY says:
    June 22, 2012 at 6:24 am
    Article in Boston Globe this morning has BOS looking hard at Samuelsson at 24.
    From the article:
    “He had a real strong playoff,’’ Chiarelli said. “I really like his strength. I like his shot. I like the way he protects the puck. He’s a prototypical power forward.’’

    LMHF#1 says:
    June 22, 2012 at 2:16 pm
    In the next 10 days, anything less than Yakupov, Samuelsson, a trade from strength for a good defenseman and signing Justin Schultz should be considered a failure. This isn’t rocket surgery, it is there for the taking.

    GODOT10 says:
    June 22, 2012 at 1:30 pm
    I think the Oilers are trying to decide between Murray and Reinhart, taking Murray at #1, or trading down to #3 or #4 to take Reinhart. I think the Oilers might be safisfied with an extra 2nd, which they can package with their own second to back into the first to get Samuelsson.

    GCW_ROCKS says:
    June 22, 2012 at 9:01 am
    Woodguy,
    Well that ius damn depressing. I was hoping Bobbie Mac was right and Samuelsson would fall to the second round so the Oilers could pick him.

  5. N64 says:

    Rondo:
    StixMalone,

    They have a crush on that Oil king team. Don’t know if there are any NHL players on that team.

    Oil King Parity Conservation on that trade. Next up? Musil for Lazar.

  6. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Haha, my friend skyped me while I was writing up this swap for for CoH, and I actually sang to him that opening line of the Billy Preston song. Great minds. 🙂

  7. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Will just repost my in-person scouting report (8games in Tucson) here

    Henrik Samuelsson, Tucson Roadrunners scouting report (from home games I have witnessed).

    He was my most disappointing player on the Roadrunners to watch. Now before you decide that I hate the Oilers and I piss on everything, just consider that I mentioned that here on LT’s comments section before we traded for him.

    Why? Because I expected more, given his storied junior career.
    In watching him, at the AHL level, he was always a step behind the play where the puck was concerned. Always chasing. He is not fast enough, and by that I mean both quickness in reaction as well as speed to be on a scoring line at the AHL level. He is a 3rd liner type.
    He has going for him decent size and great work ethic. But he does not have the skill, even at the AHL level to play a feature role on a scoring line. A guy like Christian Fischer on the same team, for example, can skate much better and has more skill, while bringing the size and grit.

    Is Samuelsson a bad player? No. And I have not watched Moroz enough this year to say conclusively whether he is better than Moroz, but if I had to guess based on earlier viewings of Moroz, yes, an upgrade.

    But this is an AHL level move. If Samuelsson is to make it as an NHL-er he needs to find another gear that I have not yet seen. His shot is not good enough, speed not good enough, head for the game not fast enough right now to contribute in a scoring role at the NHL level. If he makes it, it would be as a 4th line RW.

    And no, he does not play C for Tucson.

    This is shuffling the deck chairs among older prospects. I think the Coyotes were disappointed in Samuelsson’s development. He has not been very good and likely they wanted to hit the reset button.
    I do not have a magic 8-ball so I don’t know if Samuelsson will ever find the next level, but at the fringes an upgrade, so nothing to complain about with regards to the price paid to get him.

    I just want everyone to temper their expectations if the last they saw Henrik was as an Oil King. The bloom is off the rose with him–don’t be plugging him into your NHL lineup above Kassian, for example, in your 2017-2018 roster predictions.

    That’s my $0.02

    and for a penny more–it’s likely that the various injuries he has sustained just mean he may not ever find that next gear in skating/quickness, which would be a shame.

  8. geowal says:

    N64: Oil King Parity Conservation on that trade. Next up? Musil for Lazar.

    Reinhardt (++?) for Pysyk

  9. N64 says:

    Rondo:
    StixMalone,

    They have a crush on that Oil king team. Don’t know if there are any NHL players on that team.

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/pysykma01.html

  10. Westchester Oil says:

    meanashell11,

    Meanashell – email me at flugelsunited2@yahoo.ca if you want to watch a game sometime (somewhere between Larchmont + Greenwich).

  11. fifthcartel says:

    Seems like a low-risk low-reward move.

  12. meanashell11 says:

    Westchester Oil,

    Just emailed you! Sorry, LT sent me your detes but I have been completely swamped!

    edit! Screwed up your email, just resent!

  13. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I hope this works out like the Rieder for Kessy deal.
    With the Oilers being on the better end this time.

  14. Lowetide says:

    One area this might impact is RW next year. Pakarinen, Pitlick, Beck, et cetera, may have to deal with this young man for playing time. He does have PF pedigree (6.03, 210), so it may impact one of these men.

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I was really hoping Samuelsson would fall to the Oilers at the draft.

    Interesting bookends to what might be the end of both players’ AHL careers.

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    geowal: Reinhardt (++?) for Pysyk

    That’s actually reasonable.

    FLA is short on LHD.

  17. Alpine says:

    Samuelsson won’t likely turn out like Rieder but Slepyshev has a good chance to do that.

  18. Alpine says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s actually reasonable.

    FLA is short on LHD.

    If I were them I’d ask for Davidson. And they would because they got the statz over there.

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Alpine: If I were them I’d ask for Davidson. And they would because they got the statz over there.

    Griff’s fancies were decent last year with Oesterle playing 2nd pair.

    I’d ask for Davidson as well.

    Since none of the 3 players mentioned will probably be protected I doubt it would get done before the expansion draft.

  20. meanashell11 says:

    I honestly have a problem with Samuelsson. I guess there is a chance a tiger can change its stripes like Kassian has but this kid was a dirty player.

  21. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I was really hoping Samuelsson would fall to the Oilers at the draft.

    Interesting bookends to what might be the end of both players’ AHL careers.

    Bonus if it somehow ends with promotion.

  22. Professor Q says:

    Rondo:
    StixMalone,

    They have a crush on that Oil king team. Don’t know if there are any NHL players on that team.

    Brossoit, Jarry, Pysyk?

  23. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide:
    One area this might impact is RW next year. Pakarinen, Pitlick, Beck, et cetera, may have to deal with this young man for playing time. He does have PF pedigree (6.03, 210), so it may impact one of these men.

    I don’t think Samuelsson has any realistic hope of eclipsing Pitlick in the pecking order, even as injured as Pitlick is, he has speed and a shot that Samuelsson does not have.

  24. Diablo says:

    Samuelsson is exhibit A why we shouldn’t get too worked up over late 1st round picks – pretty much everyone here thought this kid was a can’t miss prospect. The amount of vitriol that was subsequently tossed at the Oilers for selecting Moroz since that day could fill volumes. And what did it actually amount to? Today these kids find themselves traded for one another – both are barely clinging to pro careers at the AHL level. If a pick in the 20’s can be used to get an actual NHL player, you do that trade every time. Because after the first 10 picks the draft is a complete crapshoot.

  25. Lloyd B. says:

    Diablo:
    If a pick in the 20’s can be used to get an actual NHL player, you do that trade every time.

    Because the draft is a complete crapshoot.

    FTFY

  26. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Diablo,

    I disagree a little with your statement, which seems sweeping. It is not like the Oilers chose to draft Moroz over Samuelsson.

    You can still criticize the reasoning behind choosing Moroz so early in the draft without that being disproved by Samuelsson’s results.

    i.e. Samuelsson struggling is a separate issue from drafting Moroz, in my opinion.

    Also, Samuelsson showed well his first pro year. Injuries have taken their toll.

    I don’t think this means the draft after pick 10 is a complete crapshoot.

  27. Timeisnow says:

    N64:
    Won’t bother posting any of the hysteria when the Oil took Moroz early, but it is funny how found money and cosmic disaster top of the 2nd washed out to equal trade value.

    http://lowetide.ca/2012/06/22/draft-2012-day-one-all-will-be-revealed/comment-page-1/#comment-177819

    WOODGUY says:
    June 22, 2012 at 6:24 am
    Article in Boston Globe this morning has BOS looking hard at Samuelsson at 24.
    From the article:
    “He had a real strong playoff,’’ Chiarelli said. “I really like his strength. I like his shot. I like the way he protects the puck. He’s a prototypical power forward.’’

    LMHF#1 says:
    June 22, 2012 at 2:16 pm
    In the next 10 days, anything less than Yakupov, Samuelsson, a trade from strength for a good defenseman and signing Justin Schultz should be considered a failure. This isn’t rocket surgery, it is there for the taking.

    GODOT10 says:
    June 22, 2012 at 1:30 pm
    I think the Oilers are trying to decide between Murray and Reinhart, taking Murray at #1, or trading down to #3 or #4 to take Reinhart. I think the Oilers might be safisfied with an extra 2nd, which they can package with their own second to back into the first to get Samuelsson.

    GCW_ROCKS says:
    June 22, 2012 at 9:01 am
    Woodguy,
    Well that ius damn depressing. I was hoping Bobbie Mac was right and Samuelsson would fall to the second round so the Oilers could pick him.

    I like this one

    CAPTAIN OBVIOUS says:
    June 22, 2012 at 2:23 pm
    The good news is that at least we aren’t the Jets. No matter how bad we screw this up it is still better than drafting Mark Scheifele ahead of Couturier.

    Goes to show sometimes we think we know, but we really have no idea.

    Interesting reading some of those old comments

    Just to be fair here’s a good trade suggestion from same guy
    CAPTAIN OBVIOUS says:
    June 22, 2012 at 3:26 pm

    Ducey:
    There is no way MTL would trade Subban and #3 for #1.Is the difference between Nail and Alex Galchenyukworth Subban?No way.

    I agree completely. The question is what else the Oilers would have to give in addition to the #1. If it’s Paajarvi I do it. If it is Paajarvi and Musil, I do it. If it is almost anything I do it.

  28. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I don’t think Samuelsson has any realistic hope of eclipsing Pitlick in the pecking order, even as injured as Pitlick is, he has speed and a shot that Samuelsson does not have.

    Pitlick might not be here in the fall, if we are to believe the rumored UFA trigger. Samuelsson has a window, not a big one, and we will see.

  29. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide,

    Ah. I was not aware of said UFA trigger.
    My apologies. Will educate myself.

  30. Lloyd B. says:

    if we are to believe the rumored UFA trigger.

    Please explain this.

  31. Centre of attention says:

    Lloyd B.,

    He has X years of pro experience with less than Y number of NHL games played, so it triggers an early UFA window.

    I don’t know what the magic number of games played/years of pro are, but Pitlick hasn’t met the criteria.

    Don’t quote me on this, its a rough explanation 😛

  32. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Lowetide,

    Ah. I was not aware of said UFA trigger.
    My apologies. Will educate myself.

    Well, I have been unable to confirm, so cannot send you anywhere. However, there is a clause that allows him to opt out of RFA because he didn’t play a certain number of games in the NHL. I have been trying to track down.

  33. Centre of attention says:

    Sounds like Oilers are recognizing their speed/skill issue in the bottom 6.

    Yesterday and today Bob talked about “changing the dynamic” of their forward group to add more speed. Added that he sees Khaira as a regular NHLer when back from injury due to skating / puck protection. Slepyshev has been “making believers out of people” in the organization according to Bob too. All good arrows.

    I’m glad they are realizing the times are changing and speed is all the rage, but damn that Lucic contract is looming large.

    Man. This team.

  34. stevezie says:

    Timeisnow,

    I was begging them to trade Yak straight up for Subban! Begging them!

    (made sense at the time too. He was about to holdout.)

  35. Confused says:

    Centre of attention,

    Yeah and yesterday Bob was banging on how great we are.

    Think people give Bob too much credit for having the scoop.

    He flip flops like the weathet

  36. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: Well, I have been unable to confirm, so cannot send you anywhere. However, there is a clause that allows him to opt out of RFA because he didn’t play a certain number of games in the NHL. I have been trying to track down.

    Here you go:

    10.1(c) Group 6 Free Agents.
    (i) Means any Player who is age 25 or older who has completed three (3) or more professional seasons, whose SPC has expired and: (i) in the case of a Player other than a goaltender, has played less than 80 NHL Games, or (ii) in the case of a goaltender, has played less than 28 NHL Games (for the purpose of this definition, a goaltender must have played a minimum of thirty (30) minutes in an NHL Game to register a game played). For the purposes of the foregoing, the term professional season shall: (A) for a Player aged 18 or 19, mean any season in which such Player plays in eleven (11) or more Professional Games (including NHL Regular Season and Playoff Games, minor league regular season and playoff games, and games played in any European professional league, while under an SPC), and (B) for a Player aged 20 or older, mean any season in which such Player plays in one or more Professional Games (including NHL Regular Season and Playoff Games, minor league regular season and playoff games, and games played in any European professional league, while under an SPC).
    (ii) Any Group 6 Player shall, at the expiration of his SPC, become an Unrestricted Free Agent and shall be completely free to negotiate and sign an SPC with any Club, and any Club shall be completely free to negotiate and sign an SPC with such Player, without penalty or restriction, or being subject to any Right of First Refusal, Draft Choice Compensation or any other compensation or equalization obligation of any kind.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Well, I have been unable to confirm, so cannot send you anywhere. However, there is a clause that allows him to opt out of RFA because he didn’t play a certain number of games in the NHL. I have been trying to track down.

    He’ll be a Group 6 Free Agent.

    CBA 10.1 (c)(i) and (ii)

    (c) Group 6 Free Agents.

    (i) Means any Player who is age 25 or older who has completed three (3) or
    more professional seasons, whose SPC has expired and: (i) in the case of a
    Player other than a goaltender, has played less than 80 NHL Games, or (ii)
    in the case of a goaltender, has played less than 28 NHL Games (for the
    purpose of this definition, a goaltender must have played a minimum of
    thirty (30) minutes in an NHL Game to register a game played). For the
    purposes of the foregoing, the term professional season shall: (A) for a
    Player aged 18 or 19, mean any season in which such Player plays in
    eleven (11) or more Professional Games (including NHL Regular Season
    and Playoff Games, minor league regular season and playoff games, and
    games played in any European professional league, while under an SPC),
    and (B) for a Player aged 20 or older, mean any season in which such
    Player plays in one or more Professional Games (including NHL Regular
    Season and Playoff Games, minor league regular season and playoff
    games, and games played in any European professional league, while
    under an SPC).

    (ii) Any Group 6 Player shall, at the expiration of his SPC, become an
    Unrestricted Free Agent and shall be completely free to negotiate and sign
    an SPC with any Club, and any Club shall be completely free to negotiate
    and sign an SPC with such Player, without penalty or restriction, or being
    subject to any Right of First Refusal, Draft Choice Compensation or any
    other compensation or equalization obligation of any kind.

    Pitlick turned 25 in November, is in his 5th pro season (5 as described by the CBA, he’s actually played pro hockey for 6 years) and has a total of 58 NHL games played.

    He’d need to play 80 and then the Oilers would retain his RFA rights.

    This clause is in the CBA to keep teams from “burying” players in their system and wasting their careers without giving them a chance to make it with another NHL team.

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi,

    Great minds and all………..

  39. Chachi says:

    At the end of June Pitlick’s SPC will expire, he will be 25 or older with 3 or more seasons of pro hockey experience and he will have played less than 80 games.

    Edit- what Woodguy said.

  40. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Chachi,

    Great minds and all………..

    Speak for yourself! 🙂

  41. Confused says:

    Just read the coh article on Darnell, is this supposed to be insightful? Informative?

    Just is pure filler……Feel embarrassed to have read it.

  42. Centre of attention says:

    Duane Sutter again at Avs game.

    Duane was also at the Ducks – Avs game the other night too.

    Hmmmmmmmm.

    (Sutter is high up in Oilers scouting)

  43. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Duane Sutter again at Avs game.

    Duane was also at the Ducks – Avs game the other night too.

    Hmmmmmmmm.

    (Sutter is high up in Oilers scouting)

    That is interesting.

  44. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    Yup.

    I wonder about Tyutin or something really Oiler-y like that.

    Pick the player on the Avs you think is least likely to be traded here for what ever reason. THAT’s the guy they’re scouting.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    George wrote something interesting last thread and I wanted to respond to it here:

    Georges,

    In recent years, HDSF% and SF% were pretty highly correlated. This year and the past year, not so much. The relationship between shots and winning has weakened. But the relationship between winning and winning the shot battle in the high danger area has strengthened.

    Coaches for PIT, MIN, and CBJ have talked about placing less emphasis on shots in general and more emphasis on scoring chances or high danger shots. They’re willing to exchange 2 MD shots (or a bushel full of LD shots) for 1 HD shot because the math makes sense.

    I think the game’s changing. The leading teams are moving away from Corsi and shot volume as performance measures and looking for edges in percentages and shot quality. They’re trying to sustain these edges with systems and personnel rather than accepting that PDO measures are outside their control.

    Meanwhile, BOS and LA are still doing the old, hard core Corsi thing and find themselves just at the edge of the playoff hunt. If they finish inside the playoffs and go on a run, then I would definitely take that as vindication of the view that when it comes to shots, it’s better to focus on volume rather than quality. I’m very interested to see how this shakes out by the end of the season.

    I don’t think coaches are coaching any different.

    “Takes pucks to the net, play in the hard areas in front of the net” have been directions by coaches since the game began.

    I think what has changed is the roster make up.

    The teams you mention like PIT, MIN, CBJ no longer employ “energy players” and their “checkers” have offensive ability. (NYR and others too)

    For years and years most NHL teams ran:

    2 scoring lines
    1 checking line to minimize opponent scoring, but not score much themselves
    1 “energy line” had to put a fisher somewhere so play him with other stick optional players for 5 min/night

    Thankfully, this has changed.

    If we look at MIN from last night we see:

    Coyle-Staal-Niederreiter
    Granland-Koivu-Zucker – this is their “checking” line – lots of fire power
    Parise – Huala – Pominville

    and a 4th line with Schroeder (former 1st rounder) – Stewart (former top 6) – Graovac (prospect)

    No stick optional players, no “energy” players.

    Hockey players who can put up points on all 4 lines.

    If you look at PIT and CBJ its similar. Gagner is 4C on CBJ.

    Oilers aren’t there yet.

    23-55-44 is pretty meh in terms of offensive ability. 44 is the best there and 55 can do ok with decent wingers, but 23 is a not a player in today’s NHL.

    So I don’t think the coaches are coaching differently at all.

    I think the rosters they have changed and they have more players who can execute their game plan.

    Teams like LAK and BOS have very good coaches and game plans, but lack the finishers to score and still have too many players who made it to the NHL despite their offence and not because of it. BOS is also quite snakebite with historically very good players shooting well below their career average (like Bergeron shooting 6.5% when his career is 10% etc)

    Also,

    The reason MIN kicked EDM’s ass is the same reason PIT kicked SJS’s ass in the Cup final last year.

    EDM relies on getting pucks deep, forechecking and winning board battles in the ozone to create offence.

    MIN’s D (and PIT’s in the Cup final) simply don’t allow the forecheck to happen.

    The get back to pucks quickly, and then most importantly, make quick decisions and move the puck smartly while retaining possession.

    Its the quick and correct decision making that makes all the difference in the world.

    Its the same reason why Benning’s results are the best on the Oilers.

    He could slide into MIN or PIT’s Dcorps and not miss a beat.

  46. LMHF#1 says:

    Well, I’m happy. Hope this is what he needs. He was the player of that group.

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Also George:

    I wouldn’t trust year over year correlations using Naturalstattrick’s HDSC data.

    They changed the definition and the data is wonky.

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Speak for yourself!

    I did 🙂

  49. Lloyd B. says:

    Chachi:
    At the end of June Pitlick’s SPC will expire, he will be 25 or older with 3 or more seasons of pro hockey experience and he will have played less than 80 games.

    Edit- what Woodguy said.

    I can read ( my understander of legaleeze is not as good as it should be) but is it 80 games played or 80 games on the roster? Huge difference in Pitlicks case.

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    Yup.

    I wonder about Tyutin or something really Oiler-y like that.

    Pick the player on the Avs you think is least likely to be traded here for what ever reason. THAT’s the guy they’re scouting.

    I keep saying they’re going to grab Colborne for 3C.

  51. Dino says:

    I have a feeling the Oilers are probably scouting a guy like Joe Colborne. He’s young, he’s big, he’s fast, he’s having a very bad year and he can play all 3 forward positions. Last year he had a 20 goal season and he has some skill. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the guy they’re looking at in Colorado.

  52. Dino says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Lol great minds Woodguy

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lloyd B.: I can read ( my understander of legaleeze is not as good as it should be) but is it 80 games played or 80 games on the roster?Huge difference in Pitlicks case.

    That clause is very specifically states “games played”

    In other areas of the CBA when its just “roster games” , they state that or “on the roster….”, so I’d go with actual games played.

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dino:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Lol great minds Woodguy

    Ha!!

    We need to come up with some lottery numbers while this weird thing is going on.

    I’ll start:

    6

  55. Chachi says:

    Lloyd B.: I can read ( my understander of legaleeze is not as good as it should be) but is it 80 games played or 80 games on the roster?Huge difference in Pitlicks case.

    Definitely reads as 80 games played to me. The fact that they clarify that to qualify as a game played a goalie has to play at least 30 minutes is a good indication that a player would actually have to skate in a game for it to count against the 80 game threshold.

    Edit- Again, what Woodguy said.

  56. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I keep saying they’re going to grab Colborne for 3C.

    I thought the Oilers already had Colborne?

  57. Chachi says:

    pocession charge: I thought the Oilers already had Colborne?

    LOL

  58. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I keep saying they’re going to grab Colborne for 3C.

    What would you say to Colborne?

    IDK about that lol. Unless they retain some salary and take almost nothing back in return?

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pocession charge: I thought the Oilers already had Colborne?

    Thanks DeeEssEff

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Centre of attention: What would you say to Colborne?

    IDK about that lol. Unless they retain some salary and take almost nothing back in return?

    Maybe Davidson, maybe a pick.

  61. Centre of attention says:

    Fluto ShinzawaVerified account
    ‏@GlobeFluto
    Tuukka Rask said he popped his groin

    Well that’s…..probably not good? Tough for the B’s to lose Rask.

  62. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Centre of attention: What would you say to Colborne?

    IDK about that lol. Unless they retain some salary and take almost nothing back in return?

    Why would we get a second Colbourne when we have Drai?

    doh got beaten to it

  63. Lloyd B. says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    George wrote something interesting last thread and I wanted to respond to it here:

    Georges,

    In recent years, HDSF% and SF% were pretty highly correlated. This year and the past year, not so much. The relationship between shots and winning has weakened. But the relationship between winning and winning the shot battle in the high danger area has strengthened.


    Coaches for PIT, MIN, and CBJ have talked about placing less emphasis on shots in general and more emphasis on scoring chances or high danger shots. They’re willing to exchange 2 MD shots (or a bushel full of LD shots) for 1 HD shot because the math makes sense.

    I think the game’s changing. The leading teams are moving away from Corsi and shot volume as performance measures and looking for edges in percentages and shot quality. They’re trying to sustain these edges with systems and personnel rather than accepting that PDO measures are outside their control.

    Meanwhile, BOS and LA are still doing the old, hard core Corsi thing and find themselves just at the edge of the playoff hunt. If they finish inside the playoffs and go on a run, then I would definitely take that as vindication of the view that when it comes to shots, it’s better to focus on volume rather than quality. I’m very interested to see how this shakes out by the end of the season.

    I don’t think coaches are coaching any different.

    “Takes pucks to the net, play in the hard areas in front of the net” have been directions by coaches since the game began.

    I think what has changed is the roster make up.

    The teams you mention like PIT, MIN, CBJ no longer employ “energy players” and their “checkers” have offensive ability. (NYR and others too)

    For years and years most NHL teams ran:

    2 scoring lines
    1 checking line to minimize opponent scoring, but not score much themselves
    1 “energy line” had to put a fisher somewhere so play him with other stick optional players for 5 min/night

    Thankfully, this has changed.

    If we look at min we saw:

    Coyle-Staal-Niederreiter
    Granland-Koivu-Zucker – this is their “checking” line – lots of fire power
    Parise – Huala – Pominville

    and a 4th line with Schroeder (former 1st rounder)– Stewart (former top 6) – Graovac (prospect)

    No stick optional players, no “energy” players.

    Hockey players who can put up points on all 4 lines.

    If you look at PIT and CBJ its similar.Gagner is 4C on CBJ.

    Oilers aren’t there yet.

    23-55-44 is pretty meh in terms of offensive ability.44 is the best there and 55 can do ok with decent wingers, but 23 is a not a player in today’s NHL.

    So I don’t think the coaches are coaching differently at all.

    I think the rosters they have changed and they have more players who can execute their game plan.

    Teams like LAK and BOS have very good coaches and game plans, but lack the finishers to score and still have too many players who made it to the NHL despite their offence and not because of it.BOS is also quite snakebite with historically very good players shooting well below their career average (like Bergeron shooting 6.5% when his career is 10% etc)

    Also,

    The reason MIN kicked EDM’s ass is the same reason PIT kicked SJS’s ass in the Cup final last year.

    EDM relies on getting pucks deep, forechecking and winning board battles in the ozone to create offence.

    MIN’s D (and PIT’s in the Cup final) simply don’t allow the forecheck to happen.

    The get back to pucks quickly, and then most importantly, make quick decisions and move the puck smartly while retaining possession.

    Its the quick and correct decision making that makes all the difference in the world.

    Its the same reason why Benning’s results are the best on the Oilers.

    He could slide into MIN or PIT’s Dcorps and not miss a beat.

    Does Russell getting to the puck quickly on a dump in explain some of his quirky stats then? Or why he is getting so many minutes when his fancies say he shouldn’t?

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Fluto ShinzawaVerified account
    ‏@GlobeFluto
    Tuukka Rask said he popped his groin

    Well that’s…..probably not good? Tough for the B’s to lose Rask.

    BOS is screwed.

    Hope Neely fires Julien, who is probably the best coach in the NHL or close

  65. Lloyd B. says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    McPhee is hoping so as well I would suspect.

  66. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy v2.0: BOS is screwed.

    Hope Neely fires Julien, who is probably the best coach in the NHL or close

    Apparently he’s OK.

    He just kind of casually said he “popped his groin” on a full-splits save during the game. Says he’s “fine”

  67. Dino says:

    So Woodguy basically what you’re saying about Min, Columbus And Pit strategies is if the Oilers fill their line up with more speed and skill then they can compete with these Elite teams of today’s NHL?

    When I look at the Oilers roster today I don’t see them as a particularly slow or less skilled roster but they do have what I would call areas of concern.

    Maroon Mcd Drai (good balance of speed and skill)
    Pou RNH Ebs (good balance of speed and skill)
    Luc ??? Slep (depending on the centre it could be a good enough balance of speed and skill)
    ??? Letes Kass ( ok balance of speed and skill if the LW is upgraded)

    Now that 4th line LW position can be filled by Caggiula and Khaira and they can take turns and probably do a decent enough job in the speed and skill category.

    So that leaves the 3rd line centre position as being the biggest area of weakness. The area that makes us vulnerable to the Elite teams. If this was my team to build I would go hard after Valteri Filppula in Tampa because they keep losing, he’s 5 million dollars for this year and the next and they’re going to have a tough time in the expansion draft with the way their roster is built. Maybe send back a few prospects and have TB eat $2 million of his salary for a pick.

    Lucic Filppula Slepy is a very good 3rd line with balance of size, speed and skill.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lloyd B.: Does Russell getting to the puck quickly on a dump in explain some of his quirky stats then? Or why he is getting so many minutes when his fancies say he shouldn’t?

    Russell’s biggest issue is allowing the opposition to gain the zone with possession.

    He’s has the smallest percentage of “denied zone entries” on the Oilers.

    This is the main reason why the Oilers defend more with him on the ice than any other Dman.

    By my eye (no stats to back it up) he doesn’t make good quick decisions with the puck.

    If his decisions are quick they usually end up losing possession.

    He’s better when he slows down the play to make a decision, but that’s not the way a lot of teams let you play.

    The better Dmen (Spurgeon was killer at this last night) will take a stride or two when gaining the puck to give themselves a second to make a better pass decision.

    Benning does this too.

    I see Russell not taking that stride, but playing hot potato with the puck when there is pressure.

    He’s a decent passer a lot of the times, but not too good under pressure.

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Centre of attention: Apparently he’s OK.

    He just kind of casually said he “popped his groin” on a full-splits save during the game. Says he’s “fine”

    That would have been their season

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lloyd B.:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    McPhee is hoping so as well I would suspect.

    Hoping for what?

  71. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like when Russel has the puck deep and the forcheck is coming at him, and instead of hot potato-ing it he fakes cutting back behind the net before turning the corner on guys and skating the puck out himself. At that point its an easy 10 foot pass to a forward and away we go. He’s a great skater and he should use it more often.

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dino:
    So Woodguy basically what you’re saying about Min, Columbus And Pit strategies is if the Oilers fill their line up with more speed and skill then they can compete with these Elite teams of today’s NHL?

    When I look at the Oilers roster today I don’t see them as a particularly slow or less skilled roster but they do have what I would call areas of concern.

    Maroon Mcd Drai (good balance of speed and skill)
    Pou RNH Ebs (good balance of speed and skill)
    Luc ??? Slep (depending on the centre it could be a good enough balance of speed and skill)
    ??? Letes Kass ( ok balance of speed and skill if the LW is upgraded)

    Now that 4th line LW position can be filled by Caggiula and Khaira and they can take turns and probably do a decent enough job in the speed and skill category.

    So that leaves the 3rd line centre position as being the biggest area of weakness. The area that makes us vulnerable to the Elite teams. If this was my team to build I would go hard after Valteri Filppula in Tampa because they keep losing, he’s 5 million dollars for this year and the next and they’re going to have a tough time in the expansion draft with the way their roster is built. Maybe send back a few prospects and have TB eat $2 million of his salary for a pick.

    Lucic Filppula Slepy is a very good 3rd line with balance of size, speed and skill.

    Yeah, 3C and 2LW are the biggest holes today, as is 2RD imo.

    I’m also not sure Lucic will do well vs Dcorps that move the puck quickly.

    Peter said he built this team to get out of the Pacific, but I’m not sure how many more years that will be true.

    Lucic *should* be ok vs Pacific teams, but on many nights most of his skating is behind the play.

    We’ll see

  73. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Hoping for what?

    Julien to be fired by Boston so Vegas can hire him I imagine.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Lloyd B.: Does Russell getting to the puck quickly on a dump in explain some of his quirky stats then? Or why he is getting so many minutes when his fancies say he shouldn’t?

    GA/60. I think the Oilers value that number and Russell is having a tremendous run.

    Or was.

  75. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: GA/60. I think the Oilers value that number and Russell is having a tremendous run.

    Or was.

    Sometimes when you regress to the meat it is already in a sausage grinder.

  76. Confused says:

    We apparently like JJ, so why can’t he play 3C?

  77. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, 3C and 2LW are the biggest holes today, as is 2RD imo.

    I’m also not sure Lucic will do well vs Dcorps that move the puck quickly.

    Peter said he built this team to get out of the Pacific, but I’m not sure how many more years that will be true.

    Lucic *should* be ok vs Pacific teams, but on many nights most of his skating is behind the play.

    We’ll see

    The NHL has changed in many subtle ways, when Lucic is having an off night it’s not just his skating that is noticeably slower. It’s also his decision making with the puck, fast opposition players seem to check him at will while he is trying to make a play. It looks like the game it’s moving forward and backward to fast for his brain, he’ll either make an errant pass or the puck gets knocked off his stick. Those are the moments that he looks the most frustrated by, bench the stick slams. As you have stated in the past, speed is not just about fast skating

  78. Pescador says:

    Confused:
    We apparently like JJ, so why can’t he play 3C?

    Hopefully he can, when he is ready, in a year or 2
    Love JJ

  79. Confused says:

    Pescador,

    Why would he need another couple of years, he is not 18.

  80. HT Joe says:

    Chachi: Julien to be fired by Boston so Vegas can hire him I imagine.

    So, is that bullshit rule still in play where Boston will get a draft pick for firing their coach?

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: The NHL has changed in many subtle ways, when Lucic is having an off night it’s not just his skating that is noticeably slower. It’s also his decision making with the puck, fast opposition players seem to check him at will while he is trying to make a play. It looks like the game it’s moving forward and backward to fast for his brain, he’ll either make an errant pass or the puck gets knocked off his stick. Those are the moments that he looks the most frustrated by, bench the stick slams. As you have stated in the past, speed is not just about fast skating

    Good point.

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Sometimes when you regress to the meat it is already in a sausage grinder.

    Yeah, posted this in the AM thread today.

    Whatever bloom Russell had vis a vis GF% due to the hot start is long gone:

    Oilers Dmen from Nov 1 – Feb 1 (to remove the magical run in Oct)

    Shots % and Goal % , nothing too fancy here.

    GF%
    Player GF%
    MATTHEW.BENNING 61.0
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 55.3
    ADAM.LARSSON 54.2
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 46.8
    KRIS.RUSSELL 46.2
    DARNELL.NURSE 45.5
    ERIC.GRYBA 36.4

    GF% is pretty PDO dependent in a small sample so:

    PDO
    Player PDO
    MATTHEW.BENNING 102.4
    ADAM.LARSSON 101.4
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 101.2
    KRIS.RUSSELL 99.4
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 98.7
    DARNELL.NURSE 97.8
    ERIC.GRYBA 94.6

    SF%
    Player SF%
    MATTHEW.BENNING 54.0
    ERIC.GRYBA 53.4
    DARNELL.NURSE 52.6
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 51.3
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 50.7
    ADAM.LARSSON 49.7
    KRIS.RUSSELL 48.5

  83. russ99 says:

    Can we keep Bob Green away from the pro decision makers already before he talks Chia into giving up real assets for Lazar.

    Inside information TM…

    Put Lucic on a cycle line and he’ll do OK, he’s does well enough getting in the crease on the powerplay.

    But run him on the rush and expect him to take and make passes, and get off quality shots at speed, he’s just not that kind of player.

    What’s really odd is the way the Oilers played offense last year was right in Lucic’s wheelhouse. I have no clue what changed McLellan’s mind to be so over-reliant on the rush this year, and when we do cycle we’re most often only committing two forwards on the wall and the puck is most often behind the goal line. Look how the Kings and Bruins played with Lucic on the roster, it’s a whole different ballgame.

    I’m getting a bit tired of assuming players are of low worth because they don’t stop entries, make breakout passes or play well on the rush. There’s more than one way to play hockey successfully. Maroon is a perfect example of why we shouldn’t write off players who don’t fit the fast breakout, rush assassin “Oilers hockey” mold.

  84. Centre of attention says:

    These glazed chocolate striped croissants I got today are so good they should be illegal.

  85. Glass says:

    russ99,

    Do you think it would cost much to acquire him? I don’t know if it would be a terrible pick-up, maybe he comes back much better after another off-season.

  86. russ99 says:

    Glass:
    russ99,

    Do you think it would cost much to acquire him? I don’t know if it would be a terrible pick-up, maybe he comes back much better after another off-season.

    Draft pedigree and potential value. It won’t be a dud for a dud change of scene move like Moroz – Samuelsson.

  87. Chachi says:

    HT Joe: So, is that bullshit rule still in play where Boston will get a draft pick for firing their coach?

    Nope, the NHL realized it was bullshit and changed it, but refused to grandfather the rule change to allow the Oilers to keep their pick. Absolute bush league move, but also not surprising at all.

  88. Diablo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Diablo,

    I disagree a little with your statement, which seems sweeping. It is not like the Oilers chose to draft Moroz over Samuelsson.

    You can still criticize the reasoning behind choosing Moroz so early in the draft without that being disproved by Samuelsson’s results.

    i.e. Samuelsson struggling is a separate issue from drafting Moroz, in my opinion.

    Also, Samuelsson showed well his first pro year. Injuries have taken their toll.

    I don’t think this means the draft after pick 10 is a complete crapshoot.

    Didn’t mean to make it sound like all or nothing – of course the value has to be there to trade away a 1st. What I’m talking about is getting a
    – a 2nd pairing RD
    – or a RH 3C
    – or fast 2nd line winger who likes to shoot

    In their mid to late 20’s, with term on their contract that doesn’t significantly impact the pending extensions to Drai or Connor … and the cost is a pick in the 20’s + B level prospects. Basically good magic beans for a sure thing that can help you be competitive right now.

    More often than not, those picks in the late 20’s turn out to be a Samuelsson – men among boys at their respective junior levels, but once they reach the pros they don’t develop much further. Sometimes you get lucky, and stumble upon a pot of gold, but in mosts cases you look back and realize that you should have sold high on your magic beans.

    This is how the Montreal Canadiens get Petry for 2 2nd round picks.

    I know the keeper of this fine establishment loves to follow prospects (and I love to read his take about them) but I’ve become more sober when it comes to evaluating these kids – over the years there have been so many overhyped prospects on this team – Schremp, MAP, Rita, Paajarvi …. the list goes on and on. There is so much that affects their development – psychiatric stability and social support, further physical development, “hockey sense”, injuries etc. that predicting who’s going to be a “sure thing” after the first 10 picks or so trends more and more towards pure luck.

    So I bring up the comparison of Moroz and Samuelsson, as instructive to this mindset:
    – everyone here thought Arizona got great value and a future NHLer in Samuelsson at #27. We all wanted him drop to us at #32, the Oilers included. If that had happened, everyone would have rejoiced.
    – all the online GMs absolutely hated the Moroz pick at #32; the comments section here for years has lambasted the Oilers for making a reach pick for a “coke machine”, having a fetish regarding former Oil Kings, and for not adhering to a strict analytics approach.

    Maybe Moroz was a bad pick, but today he has the same value as Samuelsson – despite the very different perceived value of these two players 4 years ago.

    Another example – today Anton Slepyshev is making a solid contribution to an NHL team, unlike a much more heralded Russian player who used to play for us.

    If that late 1st rounder gets us a player who can fill a major role on this team for several years (as outlined above), then those are deals that I want to see Chia make. I’m not advocating for trading away all of our picks, just saying that we shouldn’t overestimate the value of a pick in the 20’s.

  89. Pescador says:

    Confused:
    Pescador,

    Why would he need another couple of years, he is not 18.

    Because we’re not talking about an NHL debut here, I’m thinking about a push & then hopefully playoffs-this year.
    JJ is progressing nice and slowly, not a bad thing. Lot of players just like him never progress past the AHL. See Moroz or Samuelson.
    There will be better veteran options, preferably with playoff experience.
    I feal like JJ will get there (3C) just not quite yet.
    If you disagree with me, I can respect that.

  90. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, 3C and 2LW are the biggest holes today, as is 2RD imo.

    I’m also not sure Lucic will do well vs Dcorps that move the puck quickly.

    Peter said he built this team to get out of the Pacific, but I’m not sure how many more years that will be true.

    Lucic *should* be ok vs Pacific teams, but on many nights most of his skating is behind the play.

    We’ll see

    2 lw?

    Surely one of pouliot, lucic, or maroon can fill that hole?

  91. Roughneck says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’ve Noticed his odd propensity for pivoting and skating forward with the attacker into his own zone. He appears at times to not trust his own ability to skate backwards. It’s odd to see him do it as very few dmen employ that technique.

  92. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Diablo,

    I see. I was never a big Samuelsson guy so I did not think akong the lines you were suggesting “everyone” thiught I did dislike the process that led to the Moroz pick that early That is all.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18: 2 lw?

    Surely one of pouliot, lucic, or maroon can fill that hole?

    4LW, sorry

  94. Professor Q says:

    Chachi: Nope, the NHL realized it was bullshit and changed it, but refused to grandfather the rule change to allow the Oilers to keep their pick. Absolute bush league move, but also not surprising at all.

    But didn’t they grandfather it in for Toronto and Lou, which happened at the same time as Chiarelli?

  95. russ99 says:

    All your Oil King are belong to us.

  96. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Is anyone else aggravated that the Oilers lost to Minnesota when they were playing their backup goalie only to see Calgary destroy them the next day when they were playing Dubnyk?

  97. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Professor Q,

    Yeah I’m pretty sure we all know that the league (and the media) all cater to Toronto.

    Even during the McDavid draft, did you notice how much the media was going on about How much Toronto got hosed when the Oilers won (who had better odds and did not play the dive game like the other bottle feeders did). Even Bettman seemed “surprised” that the Oilers won the lottery. Almost like he was thinking: “dammit they screwed up that last ball!”

  98. PhrankLee says:

    AHL upgrade.

    Good trade. You don’t trade Moroz expecting an NHL player in return.

    Depending on health, this guy can help the Condors.

  99. Soup Fascist says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Is anyone else aggravated that the Oilers lost to Minnesota when they were playing their backup goalie only to see Calgary destroy them the next day when they were playing Dubnyk?

    No. Pretty predictable.

    Dubey got lit up in the AS game. Kuemper was under the gun a bit. It seems like teams step up playing in front of their back up. Calgary playing a team on back to back. The Minny team last night was a shadow of the team that forechecked the Oilers into the ground Tuesday.

    I have seen the Oilers lose to a backup far too many times.

    It was a predictable as the geniuses at the NHL picking a cheap shot artist trying to maim competitors as a “player of the month”. Or since we are talking about Marchand – as plain as the nose on your face.

  100. Jethro Tull says:

    russ99:
    All your Oil King are belong to us.

    A winner is you!

  101. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Pescador: Because we’re not talking about an NHL debut here, I’m thinking about a push & then hopefully playoffs-this year.
    JJ is progressing nice and slowly, not a bad thing. Lot of players just like him never progress past the AHL. See Moroz or Samuelson.
    There will be better veteran options, preferably with playoff experience.
    I feal like JJ will get there (3C) just not quite yet.
    If you disagree with me, I can respect that.

    You’re interneting wrong.

    Should have said “I feel like JJ will get there (3C) just not quite yet. If you disagree with me you’re a f*&%ing idiot”.

    At which point you would need to take off your shirt and pace around your home/office beating your fist and your chest yelling “THIS IS MY HOUSE” or “DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM” or “I OWN THIS TOWN”. The choice is yours.

  102. rickithebear says:

    WG: earlier this year I posted that I had talked to div 2 coaches at the salmon arm hockey festival.
    They said that my Hd theory had made many believe that there should be an emphasis on he shots.

    So I expected there may be a shift in the Hd shot rates. I wondered if there would be compression or expansion of range or change in the shape of overall save% curve.
    I was hoping for a more direct relationship between wins and hd shots.

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