G53 2016-17: OILERS AT PREDATORS

When we review this season in April (or May, or June!) one of the themes I will bring to you is just how much this team accomplished on the road. The home record looks fine now, but that came later. The road is where this team found itself, and the road is where they will spend February. Giddyup.

CRAZY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 0-0-0, goal differential nil
  • Oilers after 52, 2015-16: 21-26-5, goal differential -18
  • Oilers after 52, 2016-17: 28-16-8, goal differential +18

January is in the books, and it was a helluva month for the Edmonton Oilers. A year previous, the club gathered only 10 points in 11 games, and were outscored by five goals. This past month? Edmonton grabbed 19 points in 14 games, and put themselves in a brilliant position to grab a playoff spot for the first time since the spring of 2006. G53 was a 5-1 loss to Montreal. Have a boo at February last year—this is what Edmonton must avoid over the next 26 days.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: Nashville, Carolina, Montreal (Expected: 1-1-1)
  • At home to: Chicago, Arizona, Philadelphia (Expected: 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Tampa Bay, Florida, Washington, Nashville, St. Louis (2-3-1)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-3, 11 points in 12 games

This is a big damned month. I have Edmonton grabbing 4 wins and three Bettmans in 12 games, and that is going to be difficult without at least a win from this week.

EARLY TRADES?

  • Elliotte Friedman: One GM on Tuesday night: “Someone is going to set the trade market. Not every GM feels they can wait. There are guys who like to go early, and one of them will.” So many teams are so close that someone is going to decide they won’t lose a playoff spot because they waited.  Source

We are now inside 30 days for the deadline, and the Oilers are going to be active on some level. I think we see both buying and selling from Edmonton again this time. As you may recall, the Oilers dealt Justin Schultz and Teddy Purcell on the Saturday, and then grabbed Patrick Maroon on deadline day. Colorado may break early, will the Oilers be part of it? More in a minute.

Detroit looks like they may end up being a seller, I think the Oilers should stay away from most of their veterans—especially Mike Green, who owns a dear contract. Perhaps Darren Helm or Thomas Vanek come available, Detroit may decide to reboot over the summer.

FILIP BERGLUND’S PROGRESS

  • 2015-16—5gp, 0-0-0 (3SOG) (10:00 a night)
  • 2016-17—35gp, 0-7-7 (25SOG) (9:03 a night)

Filip Berglund has been having a little success in the last while (two assists in three games) and we always look for progress beginning in January. Berglund has survived most of the season in the SHL, and he is 1.33 points-per-60 based on the above numbers (via SHL.se). Good arrows, keeping him in Sweden for another year is probably wise if there is a sense he will emerge as a full time regular.

THE NEW MAROON

Centre of Attention was all over this last night in the comments section, he mentioned Joe Colborne and that would be an interesting addition. He is a big (6.05, 221) and he has NHL experience. Remind you of anyone?

  • Joe Colborne (27)—37gp, 3-1-4 and 270 career NHL games
  • Patrick Maroon (27)—56gp, 4-9-13 and 204 career NHL games at the deadline last year.

Maybe the Oilers were looking at Matt Duchene or Tyson Barrie, but Joe Colborne—who makes $2.5 million this and next season—could be on the shopping list. He would fit the Patrick Maroon buy low template from last deadline.

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST

The acquisition of Samuelsson may give Jesse Puljujarvi the AHL center he needs, and at the same time allows the new hire to salvage something from a trying season. I remain convinced Peter Chiarelli has more to do before we can give the balance check mark, but a good summer that includes strong drafting and one more lash at the defense and we may be able to unveil the balance photo.

EBERLE ON THE TRADE DEADLINE LIST

Frank Seravalli of TSN will join me this morning to talk about trade deadline targets currently on the TSN deadline list. It is here. Jordan Eberle is on the list, so perhaps there is something there. We haven’t discussed Eberle as a trade option, mostly because there are no clear replacements. If I were forced to cobble together a sensible scenario, it might be:

  • The Oilers plan to run their top line with two centers (McDavid—Leon) until the end of time.
  • The Oilers want to make room for Jesse Puljujarvi before March.
  • The Oilers want someone closer to Nathan Horton in style to play on the Lucic—Nuge line.

Those are my guesses, but it is not clear to me the Oilers have enough in-house to replace Eberle and address another position. Perhaps a RW for RW deal that gets Peter Chiarelli a player he is more comfortable deploying? We wait.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER, BLUE

  • Todd McLellan is running his veterans (Kris Russell, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera) in the hell zone, and that is allowing the younger set (Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning) a chance to flourish against (slightly) lesser competition.
  • Two things to watch: Brandon Davidson should move up this depth chart as he continues to get back into the swing of things at the deadline. Also, we might want to prepare for an alignment that includes 8D after the deadline.
  • Matt Benning is getting a nice push in terms of zone starts, he is the new Justin Schultz. His defensive acumen makes him a more complete blue, and is one reason we are observing one of the finest rookie seasons by an Oilers blue this century. He is terrific!

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER, FORWARDS

  • The top three lines are all in the right spot, Edmonton starts far less in its own zone in the modern era (since 2016!).
  • Jesse Puljujarvi’s offense wasn’t grand but I did like him along the wall and without the puck. It will be interesting to see how he is deployed upon return.
  • Connor McDavid really helps.
  • Drake Caggiula is getting the soft parade, a key to this final stretch may be his line starting to cash at even strength. It may also come to pass that the Oilers bring in a veteran center.
  • Anton Slepyshev is in an good spot with an interesting hue. If the Oilers have one here, that would help immensely and give that crazy trade a victory. Slepyshev has moved ahead of Nail Yakupov in scoring.
  • Anton Lander is in the gulag. Same as it ever was.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10, TSN1260, big brains, wood, leather and old lace. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Trade deadline, February uphill both ways, expansion list.
  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. Alex has excellent insight about Henrik Samuelsson during his minor league days on the right coast, and we will discuss the Super Bowl.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Trade deadline, Golden Knights at the deadline, Blues really blue.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you in 90 minutes!

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315 Responses to "G53 2016-17: OILERS AT PREDATORS"

« Older Comments
  1. spoiler says:

    Oh Pouls, ya gotta trust your shot there.

  2. JDï™ says:

    delooper,

    Well he’s big, and he’s German. At least he didn’t march into Poland.

  3. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: DO NOT post less. I enjoy your posts very much.

    Agreed.

  4. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Drai having a piss poor game so far

  5. Centre of attention says:

    The powerplay is on the fritz again.

    Somebody adjust the bunny ears.

  6. Oil2Oilers says:

    I am concerned that Caggiula is becoming a triangle

  7. Centre of attention says:

    That scrap was straight out of 1989

  8. Centre of attention says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    I am concerned that Caggiula is becoming a triangle

    Belanger couldn’t piss a drop at even strength, never mind the power play.

    Cagguila can at least whip a wrist shot home every now and then.

  9. spoiler says:

    That might be one of the more epic fights of the season.

  10. Centre of attention says:

    Centre of attention:
    That scrap was straight out of 1989

    Blood all over the glass.

    Maroon caught him with the change up left. McLeod is a gamer though and popped Maroon back with a clean uppercut.

  11. JDï™ says:

    Could really use an opportunistic goal here.

  12. Centre of attention says:

    No hooking on Draisaitl there?!

    Are you kidding?!

  13. Oil2Oilers says:

    Centre of attention: Belanger couldn’t piss a drop at even strength, never mind the power play.

    Cagguila can at least whip a wrist shot home every now and then.

    Only an ellipses so far then 😄

  14. spoiler says:

    Well other than Drai trying to do too much with that bad giveaway, this was a pretty decent first half of a period.

  15. spoiler says:

    Oil2Oilers: Only an ellipses so far then

    That was ovoidable…
    😉

  16. Centre of attention says:

    That was onside.

    This make up call is going to suck for us.

  17. Zelepukin says:

    I don’t know how much longer I can stand the patented Oilers break-out strategy of ‘a funny bounce.’

  18. Lowetide says:

    The Oilers sure forget how to play hockey sometimes.

  19. Centre of attention says:

    Talbot is going to go full Tim Thomas and win Peter a cup and make him look like a genius despite some poor choices a long the way.

  20. Pouzar says:

    Lucic. Maaaan.

  21. Oil2Oilers says:

    spoiler: That was ovoidable…
    😉

    Your a good egg

  22. spoiler says:

    Making stupid passes again..

  23. spoiler says:

    Oil2Oilers: Your a good egg

    Meh, small egg sample size.

  24. Centre of attention says:

    McDavid looking really engaged. You really notice the shifts he goes 110%.

    It’s usually when his teammates have the brilliant idea of putting the puck in 97’s general area.

  25. Oil2Oilers says:

    Maroon’s fight has sure energized one of the teams

  26. Zelepukin says:

    not many ‘good plays’ happening on the Oilers side. Need a NSH mistake to happen if we’re going to win this.

  27. spoiler says:

    STOP PASSING AND START SHOOTING FFS!!

  28. Lowetide says:

    Men, shoot the puck. Please and thanks.

  29. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    The oilers look like their collective brains are just rubbing slightly slow tonight

  30. Younger Oil says:

    Yes, McDavid is an elite player, but if he shot on even a third of his odd man rushes he’d generate even more offence.

    He is way, way too predictable, the defenders and goalies are picking up on it way too easily.

  31. Professor Q says:

    Younger Oil:
    Yes, McDavid is an elite player, but if he shot on even a third of his odd man rushes he’d generate even more offence.

    He is way, way too predictable, the defenders and goalies are picking up on it way too easily.

    He’ll work on it. Is working on it, in fact.

  32. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention:
    No hooking on Draisaitl there?!

    Are you kidding?!

    Edmonton can never seem to get a proper call to stick…

  33. Centre of attention says:

    Welp.

  34. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Well that’s the end

  35. Oil2Oilers says:

    Bending and Davidson have returned from the All Star break full of piss n’ vinegar. Shame about the rest of the side.

  36. Lowetide says:

    The Oilers have lost the script. February is going to be difficult even if they play well enough, and the last game of January and this one have to be a concern. Plus there is a game tomorrow. Pikes Peak.

  37. Younger Oil says:

    There were at least two uncalled hooks/holds in that sequence leading up to that goal.

  38. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    The preds have the best 2nd period goal differential in the league.

  39. Zelepukin says:

    time to go do other things, check the phone in 30mins and hope something might have changed.

  40. russ99 says:

    We better get our act together quickly or we could fall off.

    Forget trades, the players on the ice need to stop making dumb mistakes and play their game.

    This league gets real tough once you think you have everything under control.

  41. MadLurker70 says:

    ugly, ugly performance tonight

  42. spoiler says:

    Drai was also in picture on that play. That’s two rookie-ish errors this period.

  43. russ99 says:

    Younger Oil:
    Yes, McDavid is an elite player, but if he shot on even a third of his odd man rushes he’d generate even more offence.

    He is way, way too predictable, the defenders and goalies are picking up on it way too easily.

    Our whole offense is too predictable, try to rush, dump at the first sign of pressure, 2 forward cycle behind the net, wing it to the point, miss the net with the shot, lose possession.

  44. verite says:

    Fire Chiarelli
    The team is SHIT
    ADMIT IT REALLY
    Flush the forage test us RNH and Eberle
    To give up goals to Johansen is shit

  45. Lowetide says:

    2-0 NAS on the scoreboard, 23-18 in shots, 33-24 STL in Corsi for 5×5. A good first half of the second, but other than that they are still on vacation. McLellan is currently spitting at the back wall from the front wall, I expect.

  46. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: McLellan is currently spitting at the back wall from the front wall, I expect.

    Lol! Great line.

  47. russ99 says:

    That 1PM eastern game in Montreal could be downright ugly if we don’t start putting it together,

    Remember last year?

  48. spoiler says:

    Lowetide,

    Rinne was pretty lucky on the paddle stop. We probably should have a goal.

  49. --hudson-- says:

    russ99: Our whole offense is too predictable, try to rush, dump at the first sign of pressure, 2 forward cycle behind the net, wing it to the point, miss the net with the shot, lose possession.

    Unable to watch the game tonight… is this basically the opposite to how Woodguy described the pace the Wild plays at? Quick decisions and quick passing that makes the opponent look a step behind.

    Not sure the Oilers have the horses to play with teams that play that way, although they have done well against the Blackhawks this year. Unfortunately I think Carolina is another one of those teams that can play a fast paced game.

  50. russ99 says:

    We just can’t seem to put two good passes together to get someone a good chance.

    And the few times we do get to a good shooting area, the shot misses the net.

    Just off tonight, neee to see more gumption in the 3rd.

  51. JDï™ says:

    Boy does Kass have some jump.

  52. russ99 says:

    That was a nice shift, still we didn’t make Rinne work too hard.

    Need to score on the powerplay.

  53. Younger Oil says:

    Even though the Oilers allegedly have an ~97% of making the playoffs, I think it’s going to be VERY close whether they do or not.

  54. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Brutal non call

  55. JDï™ says:

    Looks like Rinne is going to need a Kypreos offensive.

  56. godot10 says:

    Four games against good western conference teams. Four games clearly outplayed by good western conference teams. Fortunately, Talbot won two of those games singlehandedly.

  57. russ99 says:

    Younger Oil:
    Even though the Oilers allegedly have an ~97% of making the playoffs, I think it’s going to be VERY close whether they do or not.

    Yeah, last 12…

  58. spoiler says:

    First lead in SOG the whole game.

  59. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Drai should fight someone tonight

    edit: or score a goal whichever works

  60. npanciroli says:

    I think McLellan holding this team back a little. I know it’s crazy to say in the spot they currently sit, but they have systems issues. It also might be a lack of game planning versus top teams.

  61. delooper says:

    Fake hockey!

  62. delooper says:

    If the Oilers don’t win they at least need to get some alternative points.

  63. Zelepukin says:

    delooper:
    If the Oilers don’t win they at least need to get some alternative points.

    Alternative break-outs. Only the best.

  64. godot10 says:

    Half of the Oilers forwards are not suited to play McLellan’s system, including many significant players….Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Lucic, Pouliot.

    Chiarelli is going to have to turnover half the forwards and he is stuck with Lucic.

    McDavid’s entry level contract is officially wasted.

    The defense, as long as they don’t sign Russell to a deal longer than one year, is set up pretty well going forward.

    Turnover, though, means mediocrity. And well McLellan is a #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach…so it is going to be extremely difficult for Chiarelli to make further progress with this coach and churning the forwards looking for fits with the coach.

    Mediocrity has arrived. It is a different kind of hell than the hell of being horridly bad.

  65. russ99 says:

    godot10:
    Half of the Oilers forwards are not suited to play McLellan’s system, including many significant players….Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Lucic, Pouliot.

    Chiarelli is going to have to turnover half the forwards and he is stuck with Lucic.

    McDavid’s entry level contract is officially wasted.

    The defense, as long as they don’t sign Russell to a deal longer than one year, is set up pretty well going forward.

    Turnover, though, means mediocrity. And well McLellan is a #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach…so it is going to be extremely difficult for Chiarelli to make further progress with this coach and churning the forwards looking for fits with the coach.

    Mediocrity has arrived.It is a different kind of hell than the hell of being horridly bad.

    Often the systems work, but there seems to be no variation home or road or who we play and how they forecheck and backcheck.

    Even a little adjustment would go a along way, but it doesn’t seem to happen here.

  66. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    godot10,

    Please stop it’s the same schtick every time, which is why you weren’t too active in January.

    Very similar to Minnesota game. Couple bum mistakes and that’s all she wrote.

    They’ll pick up on this style, Oilers still growing it takes time.

    Russell and Drai need to shake the cobwebs. I’m hoping Benning gets bumped up with Sekera here. Pull Russell back, hell he can even play LD with Davidson on 3rd.

    Drai took a beat this game and got nothing from the refs. I hope he is angry tomorrow.

    Didn’t see Sleppy good tonight. Lots of turnovers in places you can’t turn the puck over.

    Powerplay is discombobulated, they need a lucky goal and it’ll start rolling.

    Still not worried

  67. delooper says:

    This forum swings between irrational depressions and irrational exuberance. I think it would pay for everyone to relax a little. The Oilers are a middle-of-the-pack NHL team at the end of a hot streak. Nothing to worry about.

  68. Chachi says:

    godot10:
    Half of the Oilers forwards are not suited to play McLellan’s system, including many significant players….Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Lucic, Pouliot.

    Chiarelli is going to have to turnover half the forwards and he is stuck with Lucic.

    McDavid’s entry level contract is officially wasted.

    The defense, as long as they don’t sign Russell to a deal longer than one year, is set up pretty well going forward.

    Turnover, though, means mediocrity. And well McLellan is a #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach…so it is going to be extremely difficult for Chiarelli to make further progress with this coach and churning the forwards looking for fits with the coach.

    Mediocrity has arrived.It is a different kind of hell than the hell of being horridly bad.

    You must be fun at parties.

  69. spoiler says:

    Very poor mental game.

  70. Lowetide says:

    delooper:
    This forum swings between irrational depressions and irrational exuberance.I think it would pay for everyone to relax a little.The Oilers are a middle-of-the-pack NHL team at the end of a hot streak. Nothing to worry about.

    Fans are fans, it has always been thus.

  71. spoiler says:

    Four shutouts for Pekka in his last eight starts against the Oil.

    I blame JDï™ for comparing Caggiula to him.

  72. russ99 says:

    delooper,

    Good point, nobody can be unhappy with the run we were on, and two losses aren’t the end of the world, just don’t make it 4 before rhe bye week.

    It’s just frustrating when nothing works and we still do the exact same things, like yeah the 50th time we do that it will click.

  73. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Well, we officially suck against super-defense teams…
    AKA trap teams..

    We score first in that game, (probably) a much different outcome…

  74. Scungilli says:

    godot10:
    Half of the Oilers forwards are not suited to play McLellan’s system, including many significant players….Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Lucic, Pouliot.

    Chiarelli is going to have to turnover half the forwards and he is stuck with Lucic.

    McDavid’s entry level contract is officially wasted.

    The defense, as long as they don’t sign Russell to a deal longer than one year, is set up pretty well going forward.

    Turnover, though, means mediocrity. And well McLellan is a #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach…so it is going to be extremely difficult for Chiarelli to make further progress with this coach and churning the forwards looking for fits with the coach.

    Mediocrity has arrived.It is a different kind of hell than the hell of being horridly bad.

    I think if you are going to post opinions so strong you should back them up somehow. Just being strongly negative without a specific point drags the whole thing down. Not everybody wants to be down for no reason. Most people. If you don’t get the difference perhaps you should ponder that.

  75. godot10 says:

    russ99: Often the systems work, but there seems to be no variation home or road or who we play and how they forecheck and backcheck.

    Even a little adjustment would go a along way, but it doesn’t seem to happen here.

    McLellan is not good at in-game adjustments. He is a sub-par bench coach. He doesn’t have a feel for the game from there. He is a coach that has to look at the video.

    One can tell by his frequent random trial-and-error line combinations. 50 games in and the 2nd and 3rd lines have no chemistry, and he is not playing his best 12 forwards.

    I have a feeling that “the cheese has moved” in the NHL, and McLellan (because he is surrounded by the same coaches, and is seemingly adverse to new blood) has not kept pace the adaptations that are happening in Pittsburgh, Columbus, Toronto, New York, and Chicago.

  76. --hudson-- says:

    If you want to cool off, NFL pro bowlers are playing dodgeball on TSN. Would love to see NHL players do this during all star weekend

  77. BONE207 says:

    I don’t know why after watching the game, I felt the urge to watch something more uplifting…on the Forensic File channel. A good 3rd period but not too taxing on Rinne. Maroon’s chance being the best but overall outside shots and lots of blocks by Nashville. It’s going to be tougher than I thought. 2-1 for the trip is still possible. C’mon Oilers…giddy up…

  78. delooper says:

    –hudson–:
    If you want to cool off, NFL pro bowlers are playing dodgeball on TSN. Would love to see NHL players do this during all star weekend

    Back in 3rd grade I was like the Connor McDavid of dodgeball.

  79. Ben says:

    I once slammed my Pekka Rinne car door.

  80. Chachi says:

    delooper: Back in 3rd grade I was like the Connor McDavid of dodgeball.

    I was mediocre in dodgeball; just couldn’t make the adjustments the other kids could until I watched the video tape. I wasted all of grade 4 gym class taking dodgeball shots off the noggin using old school murder ball tactics. The horror, the horror, the horror!

  81. Scungilli says:

    When looking at other teams with lust in your eyes, remember to look for hot streaks that aren’t sustainable. For the team and players.

    The good thing is Oily doesn’t have a team PDO heater (WG!) or hot streaks. They aren’t hot and can win any game. Ees goood.

    No bad contracts!!

  82. JDï™ says:

    spoiler: I blame JDï™ for comparing Caggiula to him.

    I feel shame.

  83. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    They wouldn’t be our Oilers if they were an elite team.

    Think of these two losses as the two they shouldn’t have won over San Jose and Anaheim. If we reversed the order and lost those two justifiably and won these two, we’d be happy.

    The issues remain the same: when the McDavid line is shut down, no one else is consistently bringing the offense. We miss a third gamebreaker and the second is still young and inconsistent at times (plus is playing on the McDavid line anyway).

  84. fifthcartel says:

    I am sad!

  85. spoiler says:

    JDï™: I feel shame.

    Well granted, they have about the same stifling effect on offense.

  86. spoiler says:

    This was the worst game for decision-making that I’ve seen Dr. Drai play in a long, long time.

    #growingpains #hesearnedalittleslack

  87. spoiler says:

    And Ellis was a monster against the top line. I want him.

  88. Glass says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    That is why we should have Draisaitl get more experience driving his own line now, and find a suitable RW for McDavid sooner rather than later. Spread out the damn scoring. Slepyshev has worked hard, throw him on a scoring line and see what happens.

  89. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:

    The issues remain the same: when the McDavid line is shut down, no one else is consistently bringing the offense. We miss a third gamebreaker and the second is still young and inconsistent at times (plus is playing on the McDavid line anyway).

    I don’t think the Oilers are missing the third gamebreaker. The third gamebreaker is just doing what the coach wants him to do instead of the coach adapting his systems so the third gamebreaker can gamebreak.

  90. spoiler says:

    TMac Post-game…

    “I’ll be poking a few guys in the ribs tomorrow.” (One on one interviews with some players he expects more from).

  91. CrazyCoach says:

    Woodguy remarked on Twitter, that it’s hard to play chip and chase against teams with good D, and I totally agree, especially against teams that have D-men that can skate like the wind. It probably goes without saying that good D corps not only guard the slot well, but also the entire zone from the blueline in.

    Stop or delay a team entry at the blueline and you’ve won half the battle.

  92. treevojo says:

    Missed the game tonight because of old man soccer.

    Glad to see we are back firing the coach.

    Watch out Connor.

    Tomorrow it will be a lack of leadership.

    Good teams never lose two games in a row.

  93. bassguy says:

    Godot10….I am sorry to say this to you…but you never fail to show up when the oilers lose..I have lost all faith in your acumen and smarts as you only show up and mention”ThoroughlyMediocreCoach” blablabla…it smacks of being a coward actually…show up sometimes when they win and I might feel differently…does that make any sense to any one else on here?, bassguy

  94. stevezie says:

    godot10,

    If you had to name (or design) an ideal TMac player, who would you say is the guy? What are the traits of a player well-suited to his style?

    I agree a good coach adapts to his teams rather than making his team adapt to him. I’m curious who you think TMac might get lucky and flourish with.

    Genuine question.

  95. stevezie says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Woodguy remarked on Twitter, that it’s hard to play chip and chase against teams with good D, and I totally agree, especially against teams that have D-men that can skate like the wind.It probably goes without saying that good D corps not only guard the slot well, but also the entire zone from the blueline in.

    Stop or delay a team entry at the blueline and you’ve won half the battle.

    I looked at Nashville’s roster in the summer and declared them the only “balanced” team in the West. I put money on them to make the cup finals.

    The bet isn’t looking great right now, but if they make the playoffs I feel fine about it. That D-corps looks mighty fine.

  96. Ryan says:

    stevezie:
    godot10,

    If you had to name (or design) an ideal TMac player, who would you say is the guy? What are the traits of a player well-suited to his style?

    I agree a good coach adapts to his teams rather than making his team adapt to him. I’m curious who you think TMac might get lucky and flourish with.

    Genuine question.

    Joe Thornton a few years ago. Brent Burns. Joe Pavelski. Vlassic…

  97. CrazyCoach says:

    stevezie: The bet isn’t looking great right now, but if they make the playoffs I feel fine about it. That D-corps looks mighty fine.

    David Poile has always had an eye on defensemen and he seems to have that philosophy of building the D corp first and foremost. Goes way back to his days with Caps when he heisted Langway and Engblom from the Habs, drafted guys like Scott Stevens, and continued into his work with the Preds, where he could trade away a guy like Seth Jones.

    Course the flip side is that he’s always looking for forwards.

  98. Zelepukin says:

    treevojo:
    Missed the game tonight because of old man soccer.

    Glad to see we are back firing the coach.

    Watch out Connor.

    Tomorrow it will be a lack of leadership.

    Good teams never lose two games in a row.

    You mean 3 games in a row.

  99. godot10 says:

    stevezie:
    godot10,

    If you had to name (or design) an ideal TMac player, who would you say is the guy? What are the traits of a player well-suited to his style?

    I agree a good coach adapts to his teams rather than making his team adapt to him. I’m curious who you think TMac might get lucky and flourish with.

    Genuine question.

    Lucic, if he was a better skater, and if he shot the puck. i.e. Big wingers who can skate, cycle, and shoot first (and who don’t take bad offensive zone penalties).

    Prototypical power forwards, shooters rather than passers. McLellan is a straight lines, ground and pound, chip and chase, volume shooting coach. Any subtlety is frowned upon except maybe for one centre or two. “More” obviates the need for “smarter” or “adaptable.”

    i.e. nearly perfectly round polished pegs.

    Chiarelli with have a hard time finding enough of them.

  100. BONE207 says:

    When Lowetidians cave in upon themselves, things sure get interesting around here as the chaos takes over. I however, have found the cure for nights like tonight. Watch the Four Falls of the Buffalo Bills. Well done documentary of the four in a row losses for the Bills in the early 90’s. That my friends is disheartening. 2 regular season losses by a growing team…not so much.

  101. stevezie says:

    Ryan,

    godot10,

    I basically agree but was just surprised when you described Lucic as not fitting the mold. I see your reasoning.

  102. spoiler says:

    CrazyCoach: David Poile has always had an eye on defensemen and he seems to have that philosophy of building the D corp first and foremost.Goes way back to his days with Caps when he heisted Langway and Engblom from the Habs, drafted guys like Scott Stevens, and continued into his work with the Preds, where he could trade away a guy like Seth Jones.

    Course the flip side is that he’s always looking for forwards.

    True story. Great post.

  103. spoiler says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Woodguy remarked on Twitter, that it’s hard to play chip and chase against teams with good D, and I totally agree, especially against teams that have D-men that can skate like the wind.It probably goes without saying that good D corps not only guard the slot well, but also the entire zone from the blueline in.

    Stop or delay a team entry at the blueline and you’ve won half the battle.

    Agreed. But I would add that the Preds were trapping to the walls. Plenty of out-numbered situations at both the red and the blue line.

    One play that was driving me nuts was when a Dman was behind the net, he’d wait for the set up and then take two steps towards the F just up from the corner, staring at him, and then make the short pass. Of course by this time there is pressure–an easy read for the one forechecker–and the F then throws it up the wall to the guy at the center line, who is supposed to tip or relay the puck to the o-zone corner.

    This exit/entry plan failed multiple times, largely because of the initial telegraph. Twice initiated by Benning alone.

  104. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Looked at G’s spreadsheet.

    The distinction between during shift faceoffs and start of shift faceoffs is clear. But are you saying that during shift faceoffs are forced on the coach? And that unlike true start of shift faceoffs, during shift faceoffs can’t tell us what the coach is thinking?

    The only faceoffs where the coach can’t deploy players are those following an icing committed by his team. Own icings must represent some fraction of during shift faceoffs. G can determine what it is because he has the data. I’m going to use this guy’s estimate

    http://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2017/1/9/14209560/icings-new-jersey-devils-first-half-2016-17-season-faceoffs-goals-timeouts

    and assume that teams commit about 4-5 icings per game. Based on TOI at evens, Russell’s share should be a little more than 1/3 of those icings and Benning’s share should be a little less than 1/3. Again, I’m eyeballing. That’s 1 or 2 forced during shift faceoffs in the defensive zone for each player per game.

    This tells me that the during shift faceoffs probably contain a fair bit of information on what the coach is thinking and it would be a mistake to exclude that data when you’re checking for coaching preferences on deployment.

    To test this, I added up OZ faceoffs for both shift categories in your spreadsheet and divided by the total OZ and DZ faceoffs for each category, i.e., OZ/(OZ+DZ). I checked the correlation for defensemen between the totals ratio vs. the true shift ratio. Limiting it to defensemen with over 100 shifts, I get a correlation of 0.88. For centers, I get a correlation of 0.94.

    Based on this, I would include during shift faceoffs in assessing coaches’ preferences on how to deploy their players.

    Finally, checking the correlation of the OZ/(OZ+DZ) ratio to CF% for defensemen, I get a correlation of around 0.4. Not a lot, but I’d say on that number and the argument above, the coach’s decisions on how to deploy his players affect their CF%.

  105. stevezie says:

    CrazyCoach: Course the flip side is that he’s always looking for forwards.

    I’m not the world’s biggest RyJo believer, but he certainly fits that team and looks like he should bring a lot of what they need. I’ve always thought James Neal was the goods too, though (like most of the team) he has stumbled this year. Dirty player though.

    I’d love to pry Ellis away from them and think we have what they need, but why would they break up that top 4? Unless they have yet another good rhD that I haven’t even heard of yet…

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Looked at G’s spreadsheet.

    The distinction between during shift faceoffs and start of shift faceoffs is clear. But are you saying that during shift faceoffs are forced on the coach? And that unlike true start of shift faceoffs, during shift faceoffs can’t tell us what the coach is thinking?

    The only faceoffs where the coach can’t deploy players are those following an icing committed by his team. Own icings must represent some fraction of during shift faceoffs. G can determine what it is because he has the data. I’m going to use this guy’s estimate

    http://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2017/1/9/14209560/icings-new-jersey-devils-first-half-2016-17-season-faceoffs-goals-timeouts

    and assume that teams commit about 4-5 icings per game. Based on TOI at evens, Russell’s share should be a little more than 1/3 of those icings and Benning’s share should be a little less than 1/3. Again, I’m eyeballing. That’s 1 or 2 forced during shift faceoffs in the defensive zone for each player per game.

    This tells me that the during shift faceoffs probably contain a fair bit of information on what the coach is thinking and it would be a mistake to exclude that data when you’re checking for coaching preferences on deployment.

    To test this, I added up OZ faceoffs for both shift categories in your spreadsheet and divided by the total OZ and DZ faceoffs for each category, i.e., OZ/(OZ+DZ). I checked the correlation for defensemen between the totals ratio vs. the true shift ratio. Limiting it to defensemen with over 100 shifts, I get a correlation of 0.88. For centers, I get a correlation of 0.94.

    Based on this, I would include during shift faceoffs in assessing coaches’ preferences on how to deploy their players.

    Finally, checking the correlation of the OZ/(OZ+DZ) ratio to CF% for defensemen, I get a correlation of around 0.4. Not a lot, but I’d say on that number and the argument above, the coach’s decisions on how to deploy his players affect their CF%.

    While I agree in theory that in-shift faceoffs could also be a preference of the coach, its seem to be a bit of a stretch for me.

    Shift lengths don’t vary that much and its more of just leaving the players on the ice who are already there and have not played a full shift.

  107. auzy11 says:

    Take a run at Ryan Pullok all predictions say he will be a PP guy,young and might cost a little but theres a time Nurse just might have to go,he is NOT the PP guy the Oil need,go for the unproven in NHL but in AHL guy with all kinds of upside,,,,,I think this is better than paying big for a guy like Shattenkirk,get this kid in there with a shot they say is very very heavy and hockey smarts galore…Take a run at him

  108. auzy11 says:

    What Lucic brings in the dressing room you just cant count….This guy can score a few but the respect he demands they will never find in too many players…Can only help this young team….Period

  109. auzy11 says:

    Good Lord stay away from these guys like Vanek and such……go after a young PP guy….Pullok,Pokka,and a couple others they are not going to win the cup this year,,lets get real make a trade and make it help the future….Go Oil…..Neal who would say such a stupid thing,,my god…dont need under performing players have had too many in past…..Its the young guys that will get you there next year…..unless you can say get Duchene,,Throw Nurse out….Bear and Jones are really looking like they could be serious good players

  110. Timeisnow says:

    godot10:
    Half of the Oilers forwards are not suited to play McLellan’s system, including many significant players….Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Lucic, Pouliot.

    Chiarelli is going to have to turnover half the forwards and he is stuck with Lucic.

    McDavid’s entry level contract is officially wasted.

    The defense, as long as they don’t sign Russell to a deal longer than one year, is set up pretty well going forward.

    Turnover, though, means mediocrity. And well McLellan is a #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach…so it is going to be extremely difficult for Chiarelli to make further progress with this coach and churning the forwards looking for fits with the coach.

    Mediocrity has arrived.It is a different kind of hell than the hell of being horridly bad.

    Well, these players are good they have demonstrated this in the past. It’s time for some guys to put on their big boy pants and man up.

  111. treevojo says:

    Zelepukin: You mean 3 games in a row.

    Nope

    I meant 2.

    There is a whole day for things to escalate before they play tonight.

  112. godot10 says:

    auzy11:
    Take a run at Ryan Pullok all predictions say he will be a PP guy,young and might cost a little but theres a time Nurse just might have to go,he is NOT the PP guy the Oil need,go for the unproven in NHL but in AHL guy with all kinds of upside,,,,,I think this is better than paying big for a guy like Shattenkirk,get this kid in there with a shot they say is very very heavy and hockey smarts galore…Take a run at him

    By the same logic and reasoning used by those who said Reinhart was a bust last year, Ryan Pulock should be considered a bust. i.e. basically…He has NOT established himself as a regular NHL D in his draft plus 4 season for a a relatively high 1st round draft pick. Therefore, he, like Reinhart, is tracking to be a bust or at best at marginal NHL D.

    Relatively high 1st round drafted D who don’t establish themselves as NHL D by their draft plus 4 season almost never become top 4D.

  113. godot10 says:

    Timeisnow: Well, these players are good they have demonstrated this in the past. It’s time for some guys to put on their big boy pants and man up.

    McLellan is asking/telling Nugent-Hopkins to give up the puck, dump the puck in, and then go retrieve it. I think if Nugent-Hopkins already has the puck, that he is better off keeping it.

    And if Nugent-Hopkins is dumping the puck in, he is not playing give-and-go with Eberle.

    One is asking Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle to play a puck retrieval game…and their offense goes to s$%^. Why should one be surprised.

    They are doing what the coach is telling them to do.

  114. Scungilli says:

    Woodguy v2.0: While I agree in theory that in-shift faceoffs could also be a preference of the coach, its seem to be a bit of a stretch for me.

    Shift lengths don’t vary that much and its more of just leaving the players on the ice who are already there and have not played a full shift.

    I think coaches are looking as much for match ups as anything else, well at least a lot of them. So less OZ/DZ tactics and more about who the opponent chooses to play.

  115. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    auzy11:
    What Lucic brings in the dressing room you just cant count….This guy can score a few but the respect he demands they will never find in too many players…Can only help this young team….Period

    Actually, somone did count it. He gets paid 2m to score/play hockey, 2m to protect McDavid and 2m to command respect in the lockerroom, apparently. We got a bargain at 2m for his production.

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