FINDING JARI

Let’s go back to July—sunshine, summertime, hockey at rest. In those weeks (through mid-August) I compiled my RE (reasonable expectations), creating a line in the sand for performance. REs project players into specific roles and then project the boxcars based on previous seasons, by player. How is everyone doing so far? Let’s have a look, beginning with the skill forwards.

CONNOR MCDAVID

McDavid is a little shy (6.5 points) and I will blame the lack of quality linemates. If you look at the men who have played alongside CMD, the number of 5×5 minutes spent with ineffectives is significant. Want proof? McDavid is scoring 2.67 with Leon Draisaitl, 1.43 with Jordan Eberle. And this is in over 335 minutes with each man. If you are wondering why Leon is playing on RW, wonder no more. The missing 6.5 points are back there during the Eberle period.

LEON DRAISAITL

Leon blew my projection out of the water (by 18 points, so far), but there were good reasons to slow play projected progress. I didn’t see Leon and CMD spending as much time together as we have seen so far, and guessed low on his power play. The main point is this: Leon Draisaitl is off the grid compared to what would have been a reasonable projection based on his own history. He could hit 30 goals!

JORDAN EBERLE

It has been a struggle for most of this season for Eberle, who is off my projection by 11 points so far this year. It isn’t just bad luck, because I can’t think of a litany of examples where he has been robbed by the goaltender. Jordan Eberle is 27 in May, and my RE for next year is going to run about 8-10 points lower than this season. We may have seen the best of him.

MILAN LUCIC

He is off the pace by more than any Oilers skill forward (12 points) and ML’s even-strength troubles are even more pronounced. Chemistry is a thing, and Lucic doesn’t seem to have any with other roster players. I think Leon is a reasonable partner, perhaps we will see that for a time. As it is, Jesse Puljujarvi has been his only effective linemate 5×5, and that in a very small sample size. Power-play numbers are strong.

RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS

Nuge is well below par (my RE would have him with 37 points now, so he is 11 points off) and is struggling badly. Facing the tough opposition and scoring at evens should be his role by now, and the only real defense I can offer is his lack of quality linemates (at times) this year. Much younger than Eberle, his career scoring is in the ditch over the last two seasons.

PATRICK MAROON

Maroon, like Draisaitl, has busted the RE with his 97 time. My projection would have him at 21 points, so he is five to the better, including nine additional goals. He is cooling off now, but has enjoyed a very strong season and could be in for a major pay increase based on this current run. Edmonton has to temper their enthusiasm, 97 is going to turn a lot of wingers into millionaires.

BENOIT POULIOT

The most devastating fall from what RE projected comes from Mr. Pouliot. He is 21 points off what I would have projected through 50 games, and is having such a difficult season it is doubtful BP has trade value at this time. Which might be a blessing, since he was a damned good hockey player not so long ago.

JESSE PULJUJARVI

He is off by four points (or was, at the time of demotion) and that isn’t anything to go crazy about. What we should be monitoring is his AHL performance (11gp, 2-5-7) over the coming weeks. He needs to post 1/1 AHL in my opinion, in order to be seriously considered for a recall this season.

Tomorrow: the rest of the forwards.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

  • C Connor McDavid—I think Peter Chiarelli should be making a list of possible hires who can play on CMD’s wing. Maybe look for talented centers who can play wing and make under $4 million, who are also under control through the end of the decade. We are still looking for his Kurri.
  • R Leon Draisaitl—At this point, we might want to start talking about how much money LD’s season is costing the Oilers. Man, it would have been nice to sign him after a 45-point season. As it is, there is no way to move him from the CMD line, unless something drastic happens. The Oilers simply don’t have an effective scoring RW.
  • R Jordan Eberle—He has two years left on his deal after this one, and I have a growing sense Eberle will spend the last two years in another NHL city. If a man ever needed a hot streak, it is this player. This team badly needs 14 more goals from Eberle in the final 27 games. Seriously.
  • L Milan Lucic—It is important to make the distinction between players who were and were not brought into the plan by the current general manager. Put simply, Milan Lucic is a made man. He needs to be better, but his future on this club is certain.
  • C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—In 55 games last season, he scored 34 points. This year, in 55 games, has 26 points. Nuge!!!?? Wake up!!!! His shooting percentage is way down (he should have four more goals even using 10 percent as the line in the sand), but the still young Nuge is a shadow of his former self. He will be here in the fall, but may not complete his contract in Edmonton.
  • L Patrick Maroon—He hasn’t scored in 10 games, and will probably be moved from the McDavid line soon. Doesn’t matter. He is going to be here longer than the Steve Austin’s.
  • L Benoit Pouliot—At this point, best guess is probably right back here in the fall, 3L. Jujhar Khaira might push him to 4L at some point in 2017-18.
  • R Jesse Puljujarvi—He will be in the starting lineup come the fall, and is a big part of the future. The only real question left is his offensive outer marker.

TRADE DEADLINE

  • Brandon Davidson is in play, in my opinion. Does he get you that needed second-round pick? Suspect the return will be something in the 75-90 range, we will see.
  • Jordan Eberle has moved down the TSN trade list, from No. 7 to No. 11. I don’t think Edmonton moves him until summer, but the idea of a less expensive, less proven, C-R who shoots the puck a lot in exchange may have appeal. Eberle could end the speculation with a strong conclusion to the season and we may in fact see it.
  • Radim Vrbata heads a list of reasonably affordable deadline names for RW. Adding a vet to play alongside on of the big three C’s opens up all kinds of possibilities on this roster. Lee Stempniak and P.A. Parenteau are also in the Have Gun, Will Travel category.
  • Centers are on the wish list, don’t know that the Oilers have enough to get Martin Hanzal, but Brian Boyle would be interesting and Tyler Johnson would be thrilling.

It is tough to gauge this trade deadline, PC seems to have another buy and sell fortnight on his hands. I will guess three trades (Davidson out for a third-round pick, Reto Berra in for a sixth-round pick, the rights to Bogdan Yakimov and a fifth-round pick out for Shawn Matthias) this time.

MCDAVID’S KURRI

We are now 100 games in the Connor McDavid’s NHL career, and we can reach some conclusions. Although CMD can play with anyone, Leon Draisaitl seems to be the best match. His LWs seem to run hot and cold, and that includes current winger Patrick Maroon. What does it all mean? Peter Chiarelli is still looking. I reached out Brock Otten this morning, and asked him for the names of CMDs wingers in Erie.

  • Brock Otten: Played a lot with Debrincat and Nick Betz, and with Remi Elie after the Otters acquired him. And 2014, (had to do a bit of research because I couldn’t remember), he played a lot with Andre Burakovsky.

Okay, that gives us four names to look at as possible style matches for 97. DeBrincat is well known to us, a 5.07 scorer who is a brilliant offensive player. Nick Betz (6.04, 220) is a power winger whose offense appears to occur in front of the net. Speed is mentioned as average in scouting reports and that is probably what is holding him back (he is currently on his second ECHL team at this time).

Remi Elie is a good skater with some PF elements to his game, although size (6.01, 210) is only average for a Chiarelli winger. He is currently plodding along (42gp, 6-14-20) in his second AHL season. Andre Burakovsky is perhaps the most interesting name, he is a burner who stands 6.03, 200. He can play either wing and has a fantastic set of hands.

That’s your match, ladies and germs. Size, speed, skill. I think the Oilers will draft that player in the first round this summer, and pursue that player via trade at the deadline and in summer again. If they can find someone who has real chem with Connor McDavid, sky’s the limit. Young 97 is already leading the league in scoring, can you imagine what happens when he finds his Kurri?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning with some of my favorite guests! Beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Is Brandon Davidson heading out of town? To make room for Kris Russell?
  • Don Landry, CFL.ca. One week from CFL free agency, some big names remain available.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Claude Julien’s firing, Power rankings, trade deadline.
  • Kirk Luedeke, Red Line Report. Patriots dynasty, Bruins fire Julien, checking out top end USHL kids for the 2017 draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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146 Responses to "FINDING JARI"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    YAMAMOTO

  2. theres oil in virginia says:

    Puljujarvi scored 1 goal in 28 games. He’s off your RE by way more that 4 pts.

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    LT, you were right about the importance of 2nd round picks, I apologise for my stance that they’re a crap shoot that can be replaced with astute NCAA and undrafted signings.

    My epiphany came this morning when your beloved Bruins fired Julien, prompting me to realise that the Bruins also value the 2nd rounder they have coming as ‘compensation’ when Julien is announced HC of the Golden Ker-niggets.

    That Sweeney and Neely – two cunning foxes if ever there were.

    Also, anybody else think Nylander looks like Joffrey Baratheon? Yet another reason to despise the Leafs. As if we needed one.

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    Jethro Tull,

    PS, I hope Neely is named interim coach.

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    Vrbata
    Vanek
    Jagr
    Iginla
    Johnson
    Duchene

    Some interesting names out there.

  6. Woogie63 says:

    Brandon Davidson is in play, in my opinion. Does he get you that needed second-round pick? Suspect the return will be something in the 75-90 range, we will see.

    I hope we don’t trade our 5th best dman for middle second round pick, just before we go to the play-offs

  7. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    LT, you were right about the importance of 2nd round picks, I apologise for my stance that they’re a crap shoot that can be replaced with astute NCAA and undrafted signings.

    My epiphany came this morning when your beloved Bruins fired Julien, prompting me to realise that the Bruins also value the 2nd rounder they have coming as ‘compensation’ when Julien is announced HC of the Golden Ker-niggets.

    That Sweeney and Neely – two cunning foxes if ever there were.

    Also, anybody else think Nylander looks like Joffrey Baratheon?Yet another reason to despise the Leafs.As if we needed one.

    The NHL changed the rule, compensation no longer required.

  8. monsterbater says:

    Completely off today’s topic, but i am still catching up on yesterday’s threads (daily morning ritual). Regarding the expansion draft, how much time is there between when teams must submit their protected/unprotected lists and when Las Vegas must make their picks?

    – Is it a few hours, few days? I am curious how much time they will have to fully analyze their choices. They can plan all they want but projected vs actual protection lists will differ.
    – This will also impact how much time LV has to assess potential deals that keep unprotected players from being selected.
    – Is there a trade freeze during this time? Could a team leave someone unprotected, but trade this person before Las Vegas makes their picks? That would be awkward.
    – Are LV’s non 23 man roster players going to be on a shared AHL team? That sucks for development so maybe that impacts the types of bottom roster players they select

  9. JJS says:

    The wish list for a RW for the first line: one who can keep up with McD on transitions and keep the defense backing up into the high slot, has a quick release/one timer, and doesn’t mind driving to the slot without the puck.

    LW: A heavier body to win some board battles and stand in the paint. Relatively good feet.

    It really is easy when you don’t actually have to name names or make real trades!!!

  10. Lloyd B. says:

    My epiphany came this morning when your beloved Bruins fired Julien, prompting me to realise that the Bruins also value the 2nd rounder they have coming as ‘compensation’ when Julien is announced HC of the Golden Ker-niggets.

    Agree that McPhee probably has an offer in front of Julien already.

    *edit* What LT said.

  11. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Puljujarvi scored 1 goal in 28 games.He’s off your RE by way more that 4 pts.

    .431 in 28 games is 6-6-12, JP went 1-7-8. I don’t think his season was off my much, to be honest. They had to send him down, but Puljujarvi did a lot of good things with Edmonton early.

  12. Aitch says:

    I think we’re seeing a couple of effects going on with some of the forwards this year.
    1) Some of them defer to McDavid so much, I wonder if they’re not losing confidence in their own skills. Even Draisaitl at times looks like he’s in a rush to just throw the puck in 97s direction to see what will happen.
    2) I feel like Nuge and Ebs are probably feeling the pressure a little more with Hall gone. Those three were the key cogs to the main rebuild, and I think Hall being the one traded, rattled the other two. Rather than being relaxed and confident, they’re trying to hard to impress and it’s just not working.
    3) Lucic is the classic case of a player signing a big contract in a new city and under-performing.

    But if this team is going to do anything the rest of this year, those mentioned in 2 & 3 better get better. Not going anywhere with only one line doing most of the heavy lifting.

  13. Lowetide says:

    monsterbater:
    Completely off today’s topic, but i am still catching up on yesterday’s threads (daily morning ritual). Regarding the expansion draft, how much time is there between when teams must submit their protected/unprotected lists and when Las Vegas must make their picks?

    – Is it a few hours, few days? I am curious how much time they will have to fully analyze their choices. They can plan all they want but projected vs actual protection lists will differ.
    – This will also impact how much time LV has to assess potential deals that keep unprotected players from being selected.
    – Is there a trade freeze during this time? Could a team leave someone unprotected, but trade this person before Las Vegas makes their picks? That would be awkward.
    – Are LV’s non 23 man roster players going to be on a shared AHL team? That sucks for development so maybe that impacts the types of bottom roster players they select

    1. I think it is a couple of days, will check later if someone doesn’t come along.
    2. The window to talk trades with other teams may be open as early as March 1.
    3. No trade freeze, something I suggested go into force right after the trade deadline ended. NHL protects established teams.
    4. They should have enough to post their own AHL team, perhaps a shared ECHL club will be the way to go.

  14. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: The NHL changed the rule, compensation no longer required.

    Good. I hated that rule. Imagine being let go from one job, a common occurrence in the oil patch when projects are finished, receiving your pink slip, going to work for another company and your old employer demanding compensation from the new one!

  15. Jethro Tull says:

    Aitch: 3) Lucic is the classic case of a player signing a big contract in a new city and under-performing.

    Andrew Ladd says “Hi.”

  16. DBO says:

    IN: Vanek. then Nilsson and Franson from Buffalo.
    OUT: Davidson, 3rd round pick, leftorium prospect

    No long term fix, but if Vanek fits, maybe a 2 year deal for around $4 mill or so to play with McDavid. Winning makes everything better and cheaper, so if they go on a run and Vanek fits with McDavid, perhaps he solves the 1 RW need. Makes it easier to move Eberle in off season as well if needed to fill long term 2 RD PP need.

    I have faith (have to I suppose) that both Lucic and Eberle will shine in the playoffs. No idea why, just faith. And if we add Vanek and Franson, then we have some depth, added skill and improved PP and the ability to play Draisatl at C, and move him up when needed (unicorns!). And also means JP comes back for playoff run, allowing for the possibility of his skill adding to the team just in time.

    Gonna be a hell of a Ride!

  17. PhrankLee says:

    Jethro Tull: Andrew Ladd says “Hi.”

    It was a big decision and it’s a long contract. I am not willing to write the biggest free agent signing since an eternity off after 2/3 of one season.

    I want him to work out and believe he has added to the legitimacy of the Oilers, on the whole, more than he has hurt them on the ice.

    He has been to war and we need more of that. That stuff rubs off on young players.

    Bryan Trottier.

    **edit It looks like I am quoting Bryan Trottier here and I am not. Sorry for any confusion!

  18. who says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Vrbata
    Vanek
    Jagr
    Iginla
    Johnson
    Duchene

    Some interesting names out there.

    As a rental, I would prefer Vrbata or Vanek. Maybe Vrbata more because he is definitely a shoot first player, which this team and McDavid really needs. He may have lost a step or two but he is smart and skilled.
    Long term, Tyler Johnson would be an interesting add. Just don’t know if the Oilers can afford the assets to acquire him or his next contract. He is versatile enough to play right wing with McDavid or center a second scoring line.

  19. who says:

    JJS:
    The wish list for a RW for the first line:one who can keep up with McD on transitions and keep the defense backing up into the high slot, has a quick release/one timer, and doesn’t mind driving to the slot without the puck.

    LW:A heavier body to win some board battles and stand in the paint.Relatively good feet.

    It really is easy when you don’t actually have to name names or make real trades!!!

    Oilers are still looking for that right winger, IF they want to move Drai back to center. Seems to me they have plenty of left wingers on the roster right now that fit your description.

  20. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: .431 in 28 games is 6-6-12, JP went 1-7-8. I don’t think his season was off my much, to be honest. They had to send him down, but Puljujarvi did a lot of good things with Edmonton early.

    Yeah, I’m not overly concerned, but 1 goal in 28 games does give me pause. I’m not willing to condemn a rookie (who’s also a foreigner) getting tossed into the NHL over his first 28 games, but 1 goal isn’t what I hoped for.

    (BTW, that comment wasn’t intended as an attack on you or your RE.)

  21. theres oil in virginia says:

    Aitch,

    I think they’re very focused on their defensive games as well.

  22. jm363561 says:

    Davidson out for a third-round pick,
    ====

    If that is all Davidson gets then I would keep him and take my chances on the expansion draft (or go 4-4-1 and expose Eberle if he has not been traded).

    We can agree to differ on whether restocking the prospect cupboard is a “big damn deal”. We can agree value contracts are vital. Not sure if we agree that 2017 / 18 sees our 5 – 7 year SC window open. We need value contracts like Maroon, Kassian, Letestu, Benning, at a push Caggiula, who are plug and play. Waiting 3 – 5 years for the prospects to ripen is wasting the window. If the deal is there use the picks to get players who can help now. Same applies to Davidson (who I really like and hope we can find a way to keep).

  23. digger50 says:

    I was banging the drum for third line center in August. Today….. sure,still huge help but versatility should e considered as next year will allow another summer of tuning and much more likely to have our three centres back in position.

    Nuge, just do t know what to say but rooting for him. As is he goes third line center next season.

    Jessie P comes on strong at right wing. Now who would be our best trade target? Lt I like your consideration of someone who can go center or wing.

    Eberle – love him but but but. Maybe the only thing wrong with him is his salary? Change that to 4m and change expectations and suddenly he’s doing great. Why can’t contracts for players contain base plus bonus. Onsuderations? Protect both parties.

  24. doritogrande says:

    Why is Patrick Sharp not being considered as a rental? Sure, he’s a LHS but he’s a cup winner and can score. Unsure about his speed, but could he be an option to spell Maroon on McDavid’s LW?

    Regarding the Kurri: We have the 6’3, 200lbs plus speed type. He just needs more time, and even likes blue and white. Burakovski would be a coup, but Washington’s no slouch.

    It might be effective to take a look at who played D with 97 in Erie, and figure out if they were the ones getting the puck to him, or possibly if McDavid was feeding a cannon on the power-play.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Bohologo:
    LT, just so I understand clearly: finding Jari means someone who can put the puck in the net quickly and accurately, correct? To keep blueliners and goalmen honest when facing a 2 on 1?

    Or does finding Jari mean finding a defensive conscience to allow 97 to cheat a bit for offense?

    Or both?

    Or something I’ve missed, viz., someone to head-punch Tikkanen on the bench when his yapping gets to be too much, even for his own team-mates?

    I meant more thinking the game along with 97. In what might have been the biggest game in franchise history (they were handed the Stanley for the first time after the game), Edmonton got the first goal because chemistry
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8GIsX26Stw

  26. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide,

    “Trust. It’s what friends do.”
    Either that or when life gets you down, you “just keep swimming.”

  27. digger50 says:

    jm363561:
    Davidson out for a third-round pick,
    ====

    If that is all Davidson gets then I would keep him and take my chances on the expansion draft (or go 4-4-1 and expose Eberle if he has not been traded).

    We can agree to differ on whether restocking the prospect cupboard is a “big damn deal”. We can agree value contracts are vital. Not sure if we agree that 2017 / 18 sees our 5 – 7 year SC window open. We need value contracts like Maroon, Kassian, Letestu, Benning, at a push Caggiula, who are plug and play. Waiting 3 – 5 years for the prospects to ripen is wasting the window. If the deal is there use the picks to get players who can help now. Same applies to Davidson (who I really like and hope we can find a way to keep).

    I second this opinion.

    Preface by saying I am far from an expert on draft and develop. However

    With the low perecentages of finding NHL players in later rounds and even lower percentage of those players actually being good, why trade in a good player for another long shot?

    Seems you should ride the horse right in front of you.

  28. digger50 says:

    Bohologo:
    LT, just so I understand clearly: finding Jari means someone who can put the puck in the net quickly and accurately, correct? To keep blueliners and goalmen honest when facing a 2 on 1?

    Or does finding Jari mean finding a defensive conscience to allow 97 to cheat a bit for offense?

    Or both?

    Or something I’ve missed, viz., someone to head-punch Tikkanen on the bench when his yapping gets to be too much, even for his own team-mates?

    Lol…..head punching Tikkanen when he gets yapping too much would have been a full time job!

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    Gino Reda @GinoRedaTSN 15m “I believe that we have a better team than our results to date show.”- Cam Neely on Julien’s firing. @NHLBruins

    You believe incorrectly.

    Bruins are starting to eerily become like the Oilers in the last decade. Shame, they’re my favourite EC team.

    Fading stars……check
    One or Two good players carrying the rest…..check
    Fat, overpaid, disinterested UFAs……check
    Bat-shit crazy ‘Old Boys’ management…..check
    Interfering ownership…..check
    Strange timings of major organisational decisions…..check

    Ok, lets get this baby off the ground!

  30. Ribs says:

    I really dislike the idea of trading Davidson for not much in return. It’s so hard to find size and skill like that. I realise there is a logjam back there, but losing him after watching him start to blossom will sting. I really like how he helps direct traffic in the defensive zone. A guy like Benning is a better player because of him.

  31. Lloyd B. says:

    It is becoming increasingly difficult to continue to be a Boston Bruins fan. 2nd of course.

    Listening to the Sweeny presser. He clearly states that Julien was a Chiarelli hire and he had to work with him.

    The interim guy he hired, Sweeny worked with in the minors. Considers him a candidate for the full time head coaching job.

    He says Julien wasn’t delivering enough wins and he wasn’t prepared to ride out the rest of the season with Julien as they weren’t likely to make the playoffs.

    Then he says the new guys opportunity to be the head coach isn’t going to be connected to the amount of wins and making the playoffs!

    Talking out of both sides of his mouth at the same time. Good grief !

  32. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lloyd B.,

    The second we owed them a 2nd for hiring their fired GM you should have quit being a fan of their team. Fuck the Bruins. Sorry, LT, but you, too. *spits*

    😉

  33. classict says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Really? I think they are far better than their results show. Not that it’s Julien’s fault by any means. Rask happens to be having the worst year of his entire career.

    The checklist seems accurate though ha

  34. dustrock says:

    Lloyd B.:
    It is becoming increasingly difficult to continue to be a Boston Bruins fan.2nd of course.

    Listening to the Sweeny presser. He clearly states that Julien was a Chiarelli hire and he had to work with him.

    The interim guy he hired, Sweeny worked with in the minors.Considers him a candidate for the full time head coaching job.

    He says Julien wasn’t delivering enough wins and he wasn’t prepared to ride out the rest of the season with Julien as they weren’t likely to make the playoffs.

    Then he says the new guys opportunity to be the head coach isn’t going to be connected to the amount of wins and making the playoffs!

    Talking out of both sides of his mouth at the same time.Good grief !

    So aggravating. But I maintain Chiarelli trading Seguin came first from Jacobs and Neely. I suspect this is the same issue. Certainly Sweeney would have had to get Jacobs’ blessing to fire Julien with 2 years remaining on his contract.

  35. dustrock says:

    Regarding Davidson, I guess if Chia is getting indications from McPhee that he’s interested in Davidson, maybe he tries to move him for a 2nd.

    But I would hope Davidson, as an actual NHL defenceman, would get you more than a 2nd round pick. Since cheap, effective d-men seem hard to come by these days.

    Maybe I’ll just keep reaching for that rainbow.

  36. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    dustrock:
    Regarding Davidson, I guess if Chia is getting indications from McPhee that he’s interested in Davidson, maybe he tries to move him for a 2nd.

    But I would hope Davidson, as an actual NHL defenceman, would get you more than a 2nd round pick.Since cheap, effective d-men seem hard to come by these days.

    Maybe I’ll just keep reaching for that rainbow.

    Moving a player for a pick because he might get claimed by LV is a fool’s errand. It does not solve the problem. Just means losing Davidson and Reinhart and only getting back whatever your return was for Davidson.

  37. russ99 says:

    IMO, the lack of any reasonable levels of offense 5×5 playing without Connor (and I suspect Draisaitl coming back to earth if taken off the McDavid line) is cause for real concern.

    Many players are well off their established paces as well.

    So it would behoove our coaching staff to take the time during the break and adjust the offensive systems that seems to work only when the opposition defense is over-covering our generational player.

    We’ve assured a playoff spot if we play .500 the rest of the way, so why not take some chances to increase offense, and enough of the safe two-man cycle behind the net and the safe play back to the point.

  38. russ99 says:

    dustrock:
    Regarding Davidson, I guess if Chia is getting indications from McPhee that he’s interested in Davidson, maybe he tries to move him for a 2nd.

    But I would hope Davidson, as an actual NHL defenceman, would get you more than a 2nd round pick.Since cheap, effective d-men seem hard to come by these days.

    Maybe I’ll just keep reaching for that rainbow.

    He’s only cheap for one more year, and he’s been not as effective, though I suspect that has much to do with his injury.

    Trade value in the NHL is a lot of what have you done for me lately.

    Hence, we also can’t get decent offers for a proven 30 goal scorer

  39. Georges says:

    – the Oilers have the 4th best GA/GP since Jan. 1; a lot to do with Talbot, but that’s still very encouraging

    – CMD’s overall offense with Eberle is skewed by the time given to the failed CMD-Lucic-Eberle combination

    – CMD-Maroon-Eberle produced a higher GF60 than CMD-Maroon-Draisaitl

    – Lucic and Eberle don’t mix; with CMD, GF60 is 1.71; with Nuge, GF60 is 0 (they played 6 minutes with Drai and scored a goal but I’ll leave that out given they’ve played 280 minutes with the other two centers)

    – Lucic and Nuge don’t mix; with Eberle (71 minutes), they’ve gone 0 GF, 4 GA; with Kassian (44 minutes), they’ve gone 1 GF, 3 GA

    – Lucic and Drai have shown they can score together

    – keeping the top 3 scorers on the top line hurts team scoring; the strategy also draws the toughest defensive matchups for all 3 top producers

    – one option based on the data from line combinations used so far:

    CMD-Maroon-Eberle
    Drai-Lucic-Slep
    Nuge-Pouliot-Kass

    – might be time to move Maroon down; he hasn’t been producing at a first line rate and first line minutes over the long haul are tough

    – he’s shown he can score from different places in the lineup; right now, if you move him down, you’re not going to hurt first line scoring and you’re likely to help secondary scoring

    – but that would mean giving Pouliot a shot with CMD; that’s not going to happen but it should because it would look like this:

    CMD-Pouliot-Eberle
    Drai-Lucic-Slep
    Nuge-Maroon-Kass

    – after all this offense talk, once again, the Oilers have the 4th best GA/GP since Jan. 1; yay!

  40. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    russ99,

    It is ironic that a team that drafted three forwards other than McDavid first overall, hit a home run with Eberle and another big fly with Draisaitl, and only drafted Klefbom and Nurse as D-men in the first round over the past decade lacks secondary scoring, isn’t it? I wish it were otherwise, too.

  41. matt says:

    None of Eberle/RNH/Lucic/Pouliot make sense to me. Questions follow.

    Eberle: whenever I watch him, he gets chances. Does not cash. Is there a corsi-esque metric to support the idea that he is snakebit? Shoulder/knee injury affecting his shooting ability?

    RNH: Likewise, is a lingering should injury hampering shooting ability? Penalty-kill skills dwarfing past power play expertise?

    Pouliot: Personal issues and perhaps age affecting focus/conditioning so that his judgment and ability to contribute offensively are hampered?

    Lucic: I can think of nothing other than he plays at a slower pace than some of the supporting cast, but looked good with Draisaitl and Puljujarvi.

    Hopefully the 5-day break helps heal any lingering wounds. I like the idea of Vrbata as a 1R silver bullet. Frees up Draisaitl to fire up Lucic and reunite the BP/RNH/JE line that has gelled in the past.

  42. Truth says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Moving a player for a pick because he might get claimed by LV is a fool’s errand.It does not solve the problem. Just means losing Davidson and Reinhart and only getting back whatever your return was for Davidson.

    I don’t know. If we say the value of Davidson is a 2nd round pick and Reinhart is a 4th round pick, then trading Davidson for the 2nd and losing Reinhart is a net loss of a 4th round pick in asset value. Letting Davidson be exposed and losing him is a net loss of a 2nd round pick in asset value.

    I think the Oilers would benefit from keeping as much value as possible “protected” from being plucked at the expansion draft. If the Oilers could get a 2018 2nd from a weaker team they could theoretically flip it for a Davidson equivalent next year at the deadline and that player would not be exposed to any expansion draft.

  43. stush18 says:

    Ebs and nuges struggles are directly linked to each other.

    I just can’t figure out how pouliot, ebs, and nuge all went this cold. It’s the second year with the same coach.

  44. Btrain says:

    Honestly, with all respect to lowetide, there is far too much made of Eberle’s season. I think the only thing that really makes him stand out so much is that he is one of several underperforming wingers and therefore his offense is missed even more so than it would normally be. Otherwise its not unheard of for high paid offensive guys to have set back seasons. There are literally a dozen examples of high profile players right now, across the league, that have similar production to Eberle or worse (Kopitar, Bergeron, Ladd, Duchene, O’Rielly, Ryan, Sedin x 2, Parise, Okposo, Thornton, Hossa, Statsny, Forsberg, etc, etc, etc).

    How many of those names are in trade rumors because of underperformance? How many get ripped apart daily because there is concern that they have nothing to contribute to their teams any longer? Only for Canadian teams and, dare I say, especially in Edmonton, do we see such panic for individual players. The media then feeds off this panic and puts a guy no more likely to be traded than any of the above names on a top 10 trade deadline list. They also strongly contribute to the devaluing of the player as an asset on the open market.

    The team is winning despite the lack of production from key guys. We can look at this and pick it apart as a problem that needs to be fixed immediately, or we can look how much more this team actually has to give. That despite being one of the better teams in the Western Conference, we haven’t witnessed the best this team has to offer. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, if these guys are still ghosts of their former selves, then I will be worried.

  45. kinger_OIL says:

    Btrain,

    – Great post LT!. BT says: ” Down the stretch and into the playoffs, if these guys are still ghosts of their former selves, then I will be worried”

    – Yes this is the rub. The Oil are comfortably a top-10 team by most metrics: GF/GA/Points/+/-.

    – Their D is also top-10, given the depth and ability to play a Gryba/Osterle/Benning/Nurse/Davidson, and not all of them at once: good D development, decent goal production from D. Russel + Larsson have helped enormously

    – So we can “afford” to wait and see if Ebs/RNH/Pou round into firm

    – As the games get tighter/faster/harder: don’t see Pou and Ebs stepping it up.

    – For Chia, the ideal is some tinkering, then playoffs and see how the players react, and you get rid of those that underwelm.

  46. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Truth,

    Does this math account for the factor that Davidson’s acquisition cost is lower because of the expansion draft? If Davidson fetches a 2nd now, there is reason to think a player of his ilk would be worth more next year.

    Also, you are saying

    Davidson = 2nd rounder
    Reinhart = 4th rounder? His value has dropped since 16th overall and 33rd were paid for him, but I wouldn’t say his value has fallen that much…a 4th?

    But let’s play along…
    Oilers could protect:
    Drai, Lucic, Eberle, Nuge
    Klef, Larsson, Sekera, Davidson

    Lose Reinhart (equivalent of a 4th) or Maroon (equivalent of??)

    But it seems Oilers’ brass prefer to move Davidson and give Reinhart a chance. At least it seems that is what they might be thinking.

  47. Bank Shot says:

    stush18:
    Ebs and nuges struggles are directly linked to each other.

    I just can’t figure out how pouliot, ebs, and nuge all went this cold. It’s the second year with the same coach.

    They aren’t being gifted the best ice time any longer. That’s the problem.

    RNH is a guy that hasn’t hit 60 points in a season despite being one of the league leaders in ice time for centers the two seasons before Connor arrived.

    I saw a lot of blame towards the bottom of the roster in those years buts it’s become more and more clear that the Oilers top guys during that time aren’t the guys that can carry a hockey team. That’s a big part of the reason the team continued to finish in last place.

  48. stush18 says:

    Bank Shot: They aren’t being gifted the best ice time any longer. That’s the problem.

    RNH is a guy that hasn’t hit 60 points in a season despite being one of the league leaders in ice time for centers the two seasons before Connor arrived.

    I saw a lot of blame towards the bottom of the roster in those years buts it’s become more and more clear that the Oilers top guys during that time aren’t the guys that can carry a hockey team. That’s a big part of the reason the team continued to finish in last place.

    So RNH eberle and pouliot start struggling more with less elite ice time than usual? And nuge was dynamite at the World Cup, with the same coach.

    I have more faith in nuge than the other two, but their dropoff in play is a little ridiculous.

  49. JimmyV1965 says:

    Sorry LT, but Davidson demands way better than a 75-90 pick. What are the odds of drafting a legit NHL dman with a pick in that range? Let alone a 25 year old with more upside and a great contract. We need a legit forward for Davidson.

  50. raventalon40 says:

    doritogrande:
    Why is Patrick Sharp not being considered as a rental? Sure, he’s a LHS but he’s a cup winner and can score. Unsure about his speed, but could he be an option to spell Maroon on McDavid’s LW?

    Regarding the Kurri: We have the 6’3, 200lbs plus speed type. He just needs more time, and even likes blue and white. Burakovski would be a coup, but Washington’s no slouch.

    It might be effective to take a look at who played D with 97 in Erie, and figure out if they were the ones getting the puck to him, or possibly if McDavid was feeding a cannon on the power-play.

    Sharp is s RHS?

    And no?

  51. Tapdog says:

    Just a thought and maybe someone can chime in on the skating of Brett Connolly? He is signed to a one year deal in Washington and he always seem to have to abiity to put the puck in the net. Yea the NHL goals have come slowly but is he a shoot first guy? His lack of apples may support that?
    He had a hip injury in junior correct? Is his skating NHL caliber?
    Could he possibly be plucked with him playing down the line up in Wash?
    He seems to be getting it together?

  52. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stush18,

    I think Woodguy addressed the elephant in the room the other day when he posted WoWYs for 4-93-14.

    I think that we may have to face the possibility that 93 and 14 are complementary offensive players. They do not drive offense on their own.

    They need to ride shotgun to a strong offensive player to score at the rates we are used to. They miss Hall.

    If my theory is right then they need to play with McDavid now, possibly Leon in the future.

    Nuge-McDavid-Eberle
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Maroon (try to stop that cycle)
    Pouliot-3C-Puljujarvi
    Lander-Letestu-Kassian

    Nuge at least brings a lot of other facets to the game when he is not scoring. Eberle does not.

    But if McLellan really wants to get more scoring than just 97 and 29 then perhaps he needs to face the music and accept that 93 and 14 are complementary scorers, they miss having an offensive force on their line, but when they are given one, they can excel in that role. So put them in position to succeed.

    We also get to see if Draisaitl can drive his own line away from McDavid. If we really believe in him, which I think we all do then he should be up for the task with a couple of big vets with good hands and offensive instincts.

  53. CrazyCoach says:

    Tapdog: He had a hip injury in junior correct? Is his skating NHL caliber?
    Could he possibly be plucked with him playing down the line up in Wash?
    He seems to be getting it together?

    He had a very unusual hip injury in junior if memory serves me right. It was something that required a specialist not easily found in Prince George. That was my memory of that. It didn’t seem to affect his draft rating as he went 6th overall.

    I know this was Yzerman’s first pick as a GM, so he reluctantly traded him away.

    I honestly remember seeing this kid in bantam and then his first year with the Cougars, and post second WHL season after the hip injuries. I really think that hip injury affected him quite a bit. He just didn’t have that long stride I remember from before.

    He would be a good waiver pickup and now that Julien is gone in Boston, maybe he gets a shot.

  54. who says:

    stush18: So RNH eberle and pouliot start struggling more with less elite ice time than usual? And nuge was dynamite at the World Cup, with the same coach.

    I have more faith in nuge than the other two, but their dropoff in play is a little ridiculous.

    Don’t really think Nuge was dominant at the World Cup. I would call him solid. He spent most of his time between Gaudreau and McKinnon and I think his job was to be the defensive conscience on that line. I think TMac gave him a push on that line because he was an Oiler. There were other guys there who could have filled the same role. His wingers on the Oilers have been a pretty big step down from the ones he had in the World Cup.

  55. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Sorry LT, but Davidson demands way better than a 75-90 pick. What are the odds of drafting a legit NHL dman with a pick in that range? Let alone a 25 year old with more upside and a great contract. We need a legit forward for Davidson.

    No need to be sorry, we are just giving our opinions. Davidson’s contract certainly makes him attractive, but his injury history is a concern, and of course teams trading for him need to have room on their protected list (or be willing to expose him).

  56. delooper says:

    I think perhaps there can be no Jari. The style of the game and the market for players does not allow it. Elite centres play with replacement-level players. The wingers perform well and either their market value forces them off the team, or they sign a value contract.

  57. JDï™ says:

    Dang – Vegas will have the choice of two good coaches now – CJ and Gallant. Dang.

  58. dustrock says:

    JDï™:
    Dang – Vegas will have the choice of two good coaches now – CJ and Gallant. Dang.

    You don’t rate Hitchcock?

  59. Younger Oil says:

    Trading Davidson for a 3rd then signing Russell would be laughably bad.

    I won’t be surprised when it happens, though.

    Then Vegas would presumably take Reinhart in the expansion draft, making the overall “trade”:

    Davidson, 2015 1st and 2nd round picks

    for

    2017 3rd round pick.

    Great asset management.

    What I would do:

    Trade Eberle and our 2017 1st round pick (~#22) to Vegas for:

    Vegas 2017 1st (~#3) and the guarantee they will take Pouliot in the expansion draft.

    Gives us $10M in cap space, Owen Tippett, and allows us to keep our D corps intact.

    Gives Vegas a bonafide first line player with a league wide reputation, as well as more wiggle room to draft cheaper young players without having to worry about the cap floor as much.

  60. OilClog says:

    Davidson moved for a pick in the 75-90 range.. What in the batshit. If that’s the return, keep him for the playoffs.

    Davidson or Osterle+ for Vanek or Vrbata or keep the powder dry.

    Keep Davy, ship Russell to Florida for a 75-90 pick and their goalie buried in the AHL.

    Ship Reinhart to Dallas for a recovering Hemmer that will be ready to go at somepoint in March.

    Maroon/McD/Vanek
    Lucic/Drai/Hemmer.. The old dreams lives for a few dollars cheaper.
    Pou/Nuge/Ebs
    Lander/Letestu/Kassian
    Hendricks

    Lars/Klef
    Sekera/Benning
    Nurse/Davidson
    Gryba

    Depending on injury recovery of the youngers maybe you can ship Pou for a third somewhere.

    If Vegas is left choosing between Pou, Hemmer, Kass, Fayne.. That’d feel a lot more comfortable then losing valuable D assets for absolutely nothing.

    Hemmer biased

  61. ashley says:

    In general, I think the organization that acquires actual NHL players with non first round picks ends up better off than the organization that gets to pull another name out of the hat and hope that they turn into something useful.

    I wouldn’t let the expansion draft govern this decision, personally. Everyone will lose someone useful. If we trade away one of our useful players in fear of losing him at the expansion draft it just means that a different useful player will get taken.

    I think the Knights will take Reinhart anyway.

  62. JDï™ says:

    dustrock: You don’t rate Hitchcock?

    Good point – maybe it’s my bias from his time in Dallas spits ?

  63. Ray says:

    If traded, does Davidson fetch more of a return then Petry?

  64. Lowetide says:

    Ray:
    If traded, does Davidson fetch more of a return then Petry?

    Not close. Petry was far more established (and expensive), fetched a second and a fourth in the deepest draft in a decade.

  65. Side says:

    dustrock: You don’t rate Hitchcock?

    I thought Hitchcock was on short term contracts because he planned to retire from coaching at the NHL level after this year. I don’t imagine he would be interested in signing another short term contract with Vegas and I think Vegas would only want him for a short period if they were desperate, knowing his desire to retire.

    Seems like there’s enough quality coaches out there to be signed for longer.

  66. Ducey says:

    The possibility exists that some of the Oiler’s forwards’ numbers are down because for the first time in their lives they are actually playing defense.

    The Oilers system play has improved substantially, but at a cost to those Ryan Jones “leave the zone early” moments.

  67. Ducey says:

    Side: I thought Hitchcock was on short term contracts because he plans to retire from coaching at the NHL level.I don’t imagine he would be interested in signing another short term contract with Vegas and I think Vegas would only want him for a short period if they were desperate, knowing his desire to retire.

    Seems like there’s enough quality coaches out there to be signed for longer.

    I wouldn’t think Hitch is a guy you bring in for a young team destined for near last place. He is a guy you bring in to bust balls and reset things. BOS would be a good fit this season if he was interested.

  68. RedArmy says:

    His Jari is in St.Louis. His name is Jaden.

  69. Gordies Elbow says:

    ashley:

    I think the Knights will take Reinhart anyway.

    I think that you’re right.

    Davidson’s NHL career as a 23 year old: 12gp – 1g – 0a – 1pts – 0PIM
    Reinhart’s NHL career as a 23 year old: 37gp – 0g – 2a – 2pts – 26PIM

    Davidson’s season as a 23 year old in the AHL: 55gp – 4g – 6a – 10pts – 43PIM
    Reinhart’s season as a 23 year old in the AHL: 29gp – 5g – 6a – 11pts – 26PIM

    Roughly the same player at the same stage of development. Reinhart’s younger, bigger, and RFA, with a qualifying offer of $874,125. Davidson’s signed for next season at $1.55m, with a cap hit of $1.425m.

    Davidson now has 47 more games of experience than GR at the NHL level. I think McPhee goes for the younger option.

  70. stush18 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I don’t understand why pouliot-nuge-ebs worked so well then.

    Ducey might be correct. They might finally be focusing on defense, and are sacrificing a bit of offense to do so. Although my eye says that they started the year unlucky and haven’t been able to get any momentum going since.

    I love nuge with mcdavid. What about

    Nuge-mcdavid-JP
    Lucic-drai-ebs
    Maroon-3c-pouliot
    JJ-letestu-kass

  71. JDï™ says:

    Gerry Fleming scheduled to be on that ‘other’ Oiler radio show at 1:35 pm.

  72. Professor Q says:

    dustrock: You don’t rate Hitchcock?

    Isn’t he retiring?

  73. stush18 says:

    I can’t see Tmac putting nuge with mcdavid, because nuge is still one of our best defensive players.

    I think something like

    Maroon-mcdavid-ebs
    Lucic-nuge-drai
    Pou-cags-slepy
    JJ-letestu-kass

    Is more likely. I think they are giving this year to cags at centre, and are willing to invest at bats at centre for him.

    Even with ebs being our only point producing rw, I can’t see him lasting as an oiled.

  74. vinotintazo says:

    Gordies Elbow: I think that you’re right.

    Davidson’s NHL career as a 23 year old: 12gp– 1g – 0a – 1pts – 0PIM
    Reinhart’s NHL career as a 23 year old: 37gp– 0g – 2a – 2pts – 26PIM

    Davidson’s season as a 23 year old in the AHL: 55gp– 4g – 6a – 10pts – 43PIM
    Reinhart’s season as a 23 year old in the AHL: 29gp – 5g – 6a – 11pts – 26PIM

    Roughly the same player at the same stage of development. Reinhart’s younger, bigger, and RFA, with a qualifying offer of $874,125. Davidson’s signed for next season at $1.55m, with a cap hit of $1.425m.

    Davidson now has 47 more games of experience than GR at the NHL level. I think McPhee goes for the younger option.

    This is why I’m not too worried we’re gonna lose someone regardless, Las Vegas will take one of these. Opinion might change depending on how the Oil perform in the Playoffs.

  75. Dominoiler says:

    LT, with all due respect, What the Heck! are you trading Davidson away for a 2nd round scratch n lose?!.. If this draft is weak then how the heck is a 2nd rounder going to help the club.. sure, davey may be a golden knight in the fall, but let the dominos fall before fretting it.. what happened to keeping the powder dry?..

    Only way im trading Davey out is if its for another player (likely older) with some term (prob only 1 year), or maybe shatts (but i dont think the oilers scoring depth is good enough to warrant expensive rentals).. if its just for peanuts, then whats the point?!..

  76. LMHF#1 says:

    Debrincat just hit 44-48-92 in 45 games.

    RHS, clicked with McDavid, was available for nothing.

    It’s not a guarantee, but man does that Benson-focus have the potential of costing them here.

    There are times when you just let the computer pick (or me, or LT, or anyone who can read a stats sheet). This was one of those times.

  77. npanciroli says:

    Trading Davidson only makes sense if you want a better forward to protect that you can get for him or as a piece for a great playoff rental (I like this less). Trading him for a 3rd as others have said is really awful.

  78. N64 says:

    Dominoiler: LT, with all due respect, What the Heck! are you trading Davidson away for a 2nd round scratch n lose?!..

    This way they lose Davidson AND Reinhart rather than one of them. Why would they do that?

  79. Truth says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I admittedly value Reinhart low. Today’s NHL is about speed. Size is great, but it’s nothing without speed. I just don’t see Reinhart ever being more than a softer LH Gryba.

    I don’t think he was worth a single 2nd round pick when the Oilers traded for him. With his contract structure I don’t know if he would be worth much more than a 4th at this time, but who knows.

    Davidson is now looking like a shadow of himself last year, but he is coming off significant injury so I cut him some slack. It seems there are some here that think Reinhart gets taken over Davidson in expansion. If they are both left unprotected I sure hope that is the case!

  80. LadiesloveSmid says:

    With Klef, Sekera on the left side and Nurse exempt from expansion, I think I trade Davidson at the deadline if there’s enough value.

    I think I protect Maroon at this point over him, wouldn’t have heard me say that in the summer

  81. commonfan14 says:

    I think they should go with Nuge-McDavid-Drai on the first line.

    Centre depth is stupid.

  82. v4ance says:

    As a thought experiment, let’s say Davidson was on another team and we could acquire him for a 2nd round pick. I feel most on the board would agree to that deal.

    So if we treat Davidson like a rental for the playoffs and assume he is lost at the expansion draft, is that still a deal breaker or not?

  83. Dominoiler says:

    umm.. you’re kinda leaving out the distinct moment when hall was traded for larsson.. of course you know this, but imo your paragraph kinda requires this inclusion..

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    russ99,

    It is ironic that a team that drafted three forwards other than McDavid first overall, hit a home run with Eberle and another big fly with Draisaitl, and only drafted Klefbom and Nurse as D-men in the first round over the past decade lacks secondary scoring, isn’t it? I wish it were otherwise, too.

  84. Lloyd B. says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Lloyd B.,

    The second we owed them a 2nd for hiring their fired GM you should have quit being a fan of their team. Fuck the Bruins. Sorry, LT, but you, too. *spits*

    The payment for Chiarelli was an NHL rule not a Bruins rule.

    Not so easy to quit them. When I was selecting my team to cheer for that Big B won the day. You’ll notice my last name starts with a B. Not to mention the outstanding jerseys.

    Then along came Orr, Esposito, etal. I was hooked. Agree with Jethro though. The similarities of my two favorites are eerily similar.

  85. bendelson says:

    Lloyd B.,

    B for Braun, right Lloyd?

  86. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ducey:
    The possibility exists that some of the Oiler’s forwards’ numbers are down because for the first time in their lives they are actually playing defense.

    The Oilers system play has improved substantially, but at a cost to those Ryan Jones “leave the zone early” moments.

    Yes. Even if they aren’t executing defensively particularly well, and I’m not sure if they are or aren’t, they seem to be focused on defense. Hopefully the offense will come. Although, I would like to see if Maroon-CMD-Eberle can bust a few goals out over the next few games.

  87. Lloyd B. says:

    bendelson:
    Lloyd B.,

    B for Braun, right Lloyd?

    Brawn Brains Beauty. ( Well Beauty not so much )

  88. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide: No need to be sorry, we are just giving our opinions. Davidson’s contract certainly makes him attractive, but his injury history is a concern, and of course teams trading for him need to have room on their protected list (or be willing to expose him).

    – This is exactly right IMO. I doubt a team trades for Davidson to protect him.

    – So his value in a trade now isn’t much: If Oil think he’s going to get picked in expansion draft, I doubt other teams don’t see it the same way.

    – Losing a “Davidson” is what is supposed to happen. He’s a solid bottom pairing, but at 26 no way his ceiling gets him to top-pairing. He has no offence. Good expansion player. C’est la Vie

  89. godot10 says:

    stush18:
    Ebs and nuges struggles are directly linked to each other.

    I just can’t figure out how pouliot, ebs, and nuge all went this cold. It’s the second year with the same coach.

    “Simple”! -). The more they play McLellan’s systems, the worse they become. McLellan is “telling” them how to play offense. McLellan also has favourites.

  90. JimmyV1965 says:

    LMHF#1:
    Debrincat just hit 44-48-92 in 45 games.

    RHS, clicked with McDavid, was available for nothing.

    It’s not a guarantee, but man does that Benson-focus have the potential of costing them here.

    There are times when you just let the computer pick (or me, or LT, or anyone who can read a stats sheet). This was one of those times.

    A tad early to be trumpeting Debrincat. Anyone with doubts about Debrincat will not be swayed by junior numbers. The big test will be in the pros. Both picks were high risk, high reward and the story for both hasnt even started .

  91. Melman says:

    Lowetide,

    It’s remarkable how bad the goaltending was back then. PU

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Not close. Petry was far more established (and expensive), fetched a second and a fourth in the deepest draft in a decade.

    It won’t be at the Petry level, but it might be closer as Petry was a rental and Davidson is under contract and a RFA when that contact expires.

  93. spoiler says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Going off memory here but pretty sure the Avs could find a way to protect Davidson.

  94. Gordies Elbow says:

    I could see another option when it comes to George McPhee and the LGK draft.

    Players that are exempt (in no order): McDavid, Nurse, Benning, Puljujarvi, Caggiula, Slepyshev, Bear, Jones, Russell, Platzer, Chase, Christoffer, Betker, Ellis, Sallinen, Laleggia, Laurikainen
    – Thank the gords that this draft is in 2017.

    Players that Edmonton has to protect: Talbot, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Lucic, Draisaitl, Sekera, Klefbom, Larsson (1G-4F-3D)
    – Fair list?

    UFA at the end of the season: Fraser, Hendricks, Gustavsson, Russell, Gryba, Ference
    – Until Russell signs with his NMC just before the draft, I won’t worry about it, and leave the hand-wringing to others.

    Older players (28-31) with no more than 2 seasons before UFA: Pouliot, Fayne, Letestu, Maroon
    – If GMGM wants players like this, he can generally get them as free agents. Older, not having many years of control detracts from most of the players on this list. I can’t see him taking any of them (including Maroon, which shocks me a little bit.)

    Young unprotected players (22-25): Khaira, Simpson, Musil, Oesterle, Lander, Samuelsson, Yakimov, Pakarinen, Pochiro, Beck
    – Not enough experience or upside from this list for GMGM, replacement level players.

    Leaves the following players available: Brossoit, Pitlick, Kassian, and Reinhart.
    – Looking at the list of available goalies, I can’t see Brossoit getting picked. LGK could end up with 3 better goalies than Calgary.

    Reinhart is liked by Chiarelli – “has been the Condors best D” quote from last week.

    I didn’t get it when Elliotte Friedman was commenting on Davidson on HNIC, but Chiarelli and co. may have decided on the approach for the upcoming draft.

    Is Chiarelli’s plan to move Davidson for a 2nd or 3rd in 2017, go 4-4-1 and protect Reinhart for next season, and lose Pitlick or Kassian?

  95. kinger_OIL says:

    spoiler:
    kinger_OIL,

    Going off memory here but pretty sure the Avs could find a way to protect Davidson.

    – Maybe they are so bad on D that he would be the 3rd D you’d protect, but you have to be pretty bad, or really really constructive on an injury-prone minimal offence 26 year old with a small sample size of being a competent, with selective fancy-stats.

    – Hey I’m not saying you can’t find a partner, but I find it doubtful, because you are down Davidson then another guy on your roster, and your not going to get a lot for Davidson IMO…

  96. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    stush18,

    I think Woodguy addressed the elephant in the room the other day when he posted WoWYs for 4-93-14.

    I think that we may have to face the possibility that 93 and 14 are complementary offensive players. They do not drive offense on their own.

    They need to ride shotgun to a strong offensive player to score at the rates we are used to. They miss Hall.

    Woodguy didn’t do the analysis of RNH and Eberle without Hall with and without Eakins.

    i.e. There is an Eakins distortion factor.

    Plus, one is making a big deal out of a small sample size this season when Eberle’s shooting percentage has gone to pot. Eberle, I think, is mostly just an extended cold streak.

    Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t fit McLellan’s systems. They are telling him to dump the puck in. Here I think there is a fundamental mismatch with the way Nugent-Hopkins should play and the way the coach wants him to play. And the poor results have gotten him on the non-favourite list, and when one has been “blacklisted”, one knows it. He is one of the couple of players that McLellan has publicly shamed.

  97. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: “Simple”! -). The more they play McLellan’s systems, the worse they become.McLellan is “telling” them how to play offense.McLellan also has favourites.

    TMac is telling RNH and Ebs to miss the net when they shoot?

    I don’t know why I didn’t think of that sooner.

    This Occam’s Razor stuff is really quite impactful once you fully commit to it.

  98. Gordies Elbow says:

    godot10
    Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t fit McLellan’s systems.They are telling him to dump the puck in.Here I think there is a fundamental mismatch with the say Nugent-Hopkins should play and the way the coach wants him to play.And the poor results have gotten him on the non-favourite list, and when one has been “blacklisted”, one knows it.He is one of the couple of players that McLellan has publicly shamed.

    I’m not convinced that McLellan has blacklisted him – he sure gives him a great deal of ice time – 3rd on the team for forwards, behind McDavid (21:16) and Draisaitl (18:47,) and the 2nd most for forwards on the penalty kill (103 minutes to Letestu’s 118.)

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I think Woodguy addressed the elephant in the room the other day when he posted WoWYs for 4-93-14.
    I think that we may have to face the possibility that 93 and 14 are complementary offensive players. They do not drive offense on their own.

    Here’s those numbers and a bit more:

    Last 6 years, not including this year:

    4-93-14
    GF/60 2.84
    GF% 54.5
    CF% 51.0

    Not 4-93-14
    GF/60 2.51
    GF% 45.2
    CF% 48.8

    This year:
    x-93-14
    GF/60 1.87
    GF% 45.8
    CF% 50.1

    While their “non-Hall” scoring has slipped, their GF% is about the same as before and the CF% is up marginally.

    I don’t think they are a 1.87 GF/60 duo, but not sure if they’ll be a 2.51 under this coach. Notice that while the GF/60 has slipped, the GF% has not, mean less against as well (better goalering is the biggest driver of that)

    Given their PDO I expect the GF/60 and GF% to go up a bit.

    Miles away from the Hall “with Hall” numbers.

    Here something:

    Remember when Hall had the best IPP in the league? IPP means Individual Points Percentage. That means the percentage of points a player has for all the goals scored while he was on the ice.

    The big goal drivers have big IPP.

    Here’s the top 5 IPP over the last 5 years (3000+ min)

    HALL, TAYLOR 85.7
    ELIAS, PATRIK 83.3
    DUCHENE, MATT 81.6
    CROSBY, SIDNEY 81.2
    MALKIN, EVGENI 80.7

    That got me to thinking about when Rob Vollman came out with his passing data and declared that Hall was the best passer in the NHL.

    A higher percentage of his passes turned into goals than any other player..

    So I looked at 1st assists for the Oilers since the 11/12 season.

    Here’s the top 15 player seasons for 5v5 1st assists/60:

    Player Season A160
    TAYLOR.HALL 12/13 1.51
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 16/17 1.31
    TAYLOR.HALL 15/16 1.17
    JORDAN.EBERLE 11/12 1.15
    JORDAN.EBERLE 12/13 1.04
    TAYLOR.HALL 13/14 0.97
    BENOIT.POULIOT 15/16 0.94
    TAYLOR.HALL 11/12 0.91
    TAYLOR.HALL 14/15 0.89
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 15/16 0.86
    JORDAN.EBERLE 14/15 0.83
    SAM.GAGNER 11/12 0.81
    LEON.DRAISAITL 16/17 0.71
    DAVID.PERRON 13/14 0.69
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 15/16 0.69

    Hall has 5 of the top 10 seasons.

    Eberle had some good seasons too, but not since 14/15

    Pou was pretty good last year.

    RNH barely registers.

    So in order to “fix” RNH-Eberle they need that passer.

    EIther leave Pou there or move Drai there.

    Also,

    McDavid doesn’t need Drai

    This year:

    McDavid with Drai
    3.03 GF/60
    GF% 56.7

    McDavid without Drai
    2.98 GF/60
    GF% 61.6

    McD is the same with and without so use Drai on a different line.

    I’d try him on LW with 93-14 to try to get that going.

    I’d play Pou on the right side to compensate.

    Wingers on their off wings isn’t nearly the issue that Dmen on their off hands are.

    There is some data showing off handed wingers actually score more, but unsure of total GF%.

  100. godot10 says:

    v4ance:
    As a thought experiment, let’s say Davidson was on another team and we could acquire him for a 2nd round pick.I feel most on the board would agree to that deal.

    So if we treat Davidson like a rental for the playoffs and assume he is lost at the expansion draft, is that still a deal breaker or not?

    At this point, Davidson SHOULD be protected. 4-4-1 or bust at the moment for me. Maroon as 30 is not going to be remotely value for money on his next contract. I think Vegas takes Reinhart over Maroon and Pouliot.

    One should certainly NOT trade Davidson for a draft pick. (Okay, maybe if it is a first round pick). If they trade him for a forward who is NOT a rental and who is good enough to protect, I can live with that.

  101. Primetime says:

    I have said it before, and others here have said it as well:

    Vegas is building for the future as well as the present. I think they take Reinhart over Davidson all day. Davidson shouldn’t be protected for that reason. What will be more interesting is if Chia does 4-4-1 and protects Reinhart….

  102. Bank Shot says:

    Here something:

    Remember when Hall had the best IPP in the league?IPP means Individual Points Percentage.That means the percentage of points a player has for all the goals scored while he was on the ice.

    The big goal drivers have big IPP.

    Here’s the top 5 IPP over the last 5 years (3000+ min)

    HALL, TAYLOR85.7
    ELIAS, PATRIK83.3
    DUCHENE, MATT81.6
    CROSBY, SIDNEY81.2
    MALKIN, EVGENI80.7

    That got me to thinking about when Rob Vollman came out with his passing data and declared that Hall was the best passer in the NHL.

    A higher percentage of his passes turned into goals than any other player..

    The problem I could see here is that people were operating on the assumption that IPP isn’t heavily influenced by luck.

    Seeing as how it’s basically a box car metric I feel like it has to be heavily luck driven.

    At one point Hall was over 100% when it came to individual contribution of on ice points. Now.if that’s just not blind luck then I don’t know what is.

    Since those two magical seasons where Hall was an outlier in IPP metric he’s been about a 65 point per year player. He’s one pace for that again this year. That’s a good player, but not anywhere close to being in Malkin/Crosby territory.

    So that he scores up with them in a metric is more luck than ability is my guess. I mean he’s still a big driver of production but if you go over his career he probably falls down a bit. If you go by last 3 seasons I bet he drops a tonne.

  103. Bank Shot says:

    Gordies Elbow: I’m not convinced that McLellan has blacklisted him – he sure gives him a great deal of ice time – 3rd on the team for forwards, behind McDavid (21:16) and Draisaitl (18:47,) and the 2nd most for forwards on the penalty kill (103 minutes to Letestu’s 118.)

    The thing about RNH is that he just isn’t a good producer at even strength. Stats guys were saying that about him in his draft year and if you look at his NHL career as a whole it’s been true.

    I think at this point expecting that to get “fixed” is more prayer based than anything.

    It wouldn’t be a problem if he was making Turris money.

  104. Bruce Wayne says:

    It is cute that people think Reinhart is going to to be a useful player. He had little to no NHL value when the Oilers traded for him and then he proceeded to underplay expectations.

    He’s a defensive defender with mobility issues (he can’t turn). Have all of you forgotten the exhibition game he played? Unless something miraculous has happened in the AHL, he makes Gryba look as agile as a cat. Las Vegas would have to be using Chiarelli’s scouting reports to take him.

  105. kinger_OIL says:

    godot10,

    – I agree about Maroon: sure he has played well with McD, but he’s not worth protecting IMO.

    – I disagree about Reinhart: they should favour D who are actual NHL players now and there are 50+ D with more promise than Griff that are going to be available (including Davidson)

  106. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10,

    If you trade Davidson for a forward who is good enough to protect then they are going 7-3-1, not 4-4-1.

    Unless you think Davidson can fetch a forward that is worth protecting over Eberle or Nuge. I don’t think that is realistic.

    So in that scenario Chia upgrades his forwards but most likely loses both Davidson and Reinhart

    This is why it makes the most sense to stay the course and lose Davidson to Vegas. It is the least bad option.

    It sounds like they are looking to trade Davidson for a pick or a rental and then going 4-4-1 to protect Reinhart, expose Maroon.

    But we wait and see.

  107. Bruce Wayne says:

    Bank Shot,

    Taylor Hall’s IPP% this year is 86.4. You’ll notice that this is even better than what Woodguy quoted.

    So like all of these numbers IPP% is subject to variance, but it is stickier than most. It is much less subject to luck than, to pick a stat at random, on-ice save percentage for defensemen.

    Hall has one of the best in the league, year in and year out. That is because Taylor Hall is one of the best players in the league.

    And captain sweatsuit traded him for a defensive defenseman.

  108. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It won’t be at the Petry level, but it might be closer as Petry was a rental and Davidson is under contract and a RFA when that contact expires.

    My guess is people will be disappointed in the return. Getting a 2 and a 4 would be terrific return, wish there was a way to keep him. Maybe if Maroon goes another 10 games without a goal. 🙂

  109. Lowetide says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Bank Shot,

    Taylor Hall’s IPP% this year is 86.4.You’ll notice that this is even better than what Woodguy quoted.

    So like all of these numbers IPP% is subject to variance, but it is stickier than most.It is much less subject to luck than, to pick a stat at random, on-ice save percentage for defensemen.

    Hall has one of the best in the league, year in and year out.That is because Taylor Hall is one of the best players in the league.

    And captain sweatsuit traded him for a defensive defenseman.

    I spoke to Jen Lute Costella a couple of years back, Hall and Pacioretty were peas in a pod in things like being the last person to touch the puck in the D zone and also making the critical pass for a goal (first assist) or scoring. Basically three-in-one players. I don’t think reasonable people would argue with your description of him.

  110. godot10 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    godot10,

    – I agree about Maroon: sure he has played well with McD, but he’s not worth protecting IMO.

    – I disagree about Reinhart: they should favour D who are actual NHL players now and there are 50+ D with more promise than Griff that are going to be available (including Davidson)

    Vegas would choose Davidson over Reinhart, but I wouldn’t give them that choice, since I would protect Davy. Reinhart or Khaira are the most likely options for Vegas to pick from the Oilers once one protects Davidson. None of the Oilers vets including Maroon are particularly attractive from a value perspective. Vegas can find better expensive vets elsewhere.

    McPhee drafted Alzner…so given the choice between Reinhart and Khaira, I think he would seriously consider Reinhart.

  111. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is an awesome post, thank you.

    But, solely on the matter of IPP… Doesn’t IPP also indicate the one-lineliness (l-oneliness?) of a team? …in other words how shitty the rest of the team is scoring in comparison?

  112. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    godot10,

    If you trade Davidson for a forward who is good enough to protect then they are going 7-3-1, not 4-4-1.

    That is my point. The decision tree. Keep Davidson and go 4-4-1. Or trade him for a non-rental forward good enough to protect and go 7-3-1. Don’t trade him for a draft pick (unless it is a 1st round pick, then maybe).

    Davidson > Maroon. Davidson > Russell.

  113. stevezie says:

    Is there not an argument to be made that we would be wise to keep Davidson specifically so we can lose him for nothing?

    We have a few good, young, left-handed defenceman. We have a shortage of forwards. I’m not sure trading Davidson and Letestu* for a 2nd and a 4th is a winning deal.

    I haven’t thought very hard on this though. Maybe I’m stupid.

    ***LV might take Reinhart? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3_ww66EeN8
    I can’t see Pouliot tempting them either. They might take Maroon over Davidson, but I doubt they get the chance. Maybe I’m missing someone, I haven’t thought this through very much, but remember: If you trade Davidson for picks you’re dealing him and whoever we lose instead.

    All that said I support trading Davidson if we get a roster player. Just makes sense. We’ve a lot of left-handers.

  114. Pink Socks says:

    Of course hindsight is genius, but as a retort to the team’s asset management in regards to Petry, if you explode that trade out with today’s results it was:

    Petry + 3rd Round Pick for: Cam Talbot, Caleb Jones, Ziyat Paigin.

    It didn’t turn out too badly. We netted a starting goaltender and two very promising D prospects.

  115. Pink Socks says:

    My concern is not that LV takes Reinhart, it’s that we protect him..

  116. Bruce Wayne says:

    Lowetide,

    The last three years Pacioretty has an IPP% of 80. Which is excellent (10th in the league, Hall is 7th). Pacioretty, like Hall, is criminally underappreciated by his own fanbase.

  117. stevezie says:

    Pink Socks,

    I’ll go on record: Peter Chiarelli is not that dumb.

    (Obviously he could change my mind next week, but it would take not a good, but an amazing run in the pros to justify protecting him. He would have to be an absolute revelation.)

  118. Bruce Wayne says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is an awesome post, thank you.

    But, solely on the matter of IPP… Doesn’t IPP also indicate the one-lineliness (l-oneliness?) of a team? …in other words how shitty the rest of the team is scoring in comparison?

    IPP% is the percentage of points while the player is on the ice. It says nothing about what happens when the player is not on the ice.

    So what it says is how responsible the player is for what happens on the ice, i.e. it identifies who is driving the offense.

    For instance Patrick Hornquist this year has a very respectable 1.9 pts/60 but an IPP% of only 51%.
    Phil Kessel pts/60 is only slightly higher (2.18) but his IPP% is 78. This likely tells us that Hornquist plays with better linemates which is driving his points whereas Kessel is responsible for his own production.

    As an aside Conor Sheary is having quite a season. Is he better than we think?

  119. Pink Socks says:

    stevezie,

    I don’t think it would be a measure of his intelligence, but rather a protection of a poor move. In essence he is protecting those two valuable picks that we gave up for him.

  120. Bruce Wayne says:

    Interesting, and I did not know this before I looked it up, here are the Oiler numbers.

    Not surprisingly McDavid has the best IPP% on the team at 84%.

    This is followed by, in order, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Draisatl. These are the Oilers best forwards.

    I’ll give everyone one guess who is last.

  121. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10,
    Oh, we are in agreement, shocking I know.

    This is most preferable.

    4-4-1
    Lucic, Drai, Nuge, Ebs, Klef, Sekera, Larsson, Davidson

    The verbal suggests Oilers are worried they lose Davidson for free. So protect him then. Let Vegas choose one out of Khaira, Maroon, Reinhart.

    Someone has to go. No way around it. Maybe give them a 3rd round pick to take someone other than those three.

    If we are saying Davidson is worth more than a 3rd, then why don’t we feel okay about giving up a 3rd and keeping all the pieces we want then?

  122. dustrock says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Interesting, and I did not know this before I looked it up, here are the Oiler numbers.

    Not surprisingly McDavid has the best IPP% on the team at 84%.

    This is followed by, in order, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Draisatl.These are the Oilers best forwards.

    I’ll give everyone one guess who is last.

    Looooooooooooch

  123. Ducey says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Interesting, and I did not know this before I looked it up, here are the Oiler numbers.

    Not surprisingly McDavid has the best IPP% on the team at 84%.

    This is followed by, in order, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Draisatl.These are the Oilers best forwards.

    I’ll give everyone one guess who is last.

    Hopefully he will do even worse, then you can start enjoying yourself again.

  124. Pink Socks says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Hall?

  125. Side says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Interesting, and I did not know this before I looked it up, here are the Oiler numbers.

    Not surprisingly McDavid has the best IPP% on the team at 84%.

    This is followed by, in order, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Draisatl.These are the Oilers best forwards.

    I’ll give everyone one guess who is last.

    For someone who’s no longer a fan of the team, you sure do like to hang out here a lot and complain about stuff.

    And now Chia’s wearing a sweatsuit? I thought he wore a tracksuit? Or did he wear both at the same time?

    The plot thickens.

  126. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Side,

    Hahaha. The sweatsuit/tracksuit talk is hilarious. Kim Jong Il would be proud.

  127. Georges says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Bank Shot,

    Taylor Hall’s IPP% this year is 86.4.You’ll notice that this is even better than what Woodguy quoted.

    So like all of these numbers IPP% is subject to variance, but it is stickier than most.It is much less subject to luck than, to pick a stat at random, on-ice save percentage for defensemen.

    Hall has one of the best in the league, year in and year out.That is because Taylor Hall is one of the best players in the league.

    And captain sweatsuit traded him for a defensive defenseman.

    Folks say sh% is primarily luck.

    Year over year correlation of 5v5 sh% for forwards playing over 450 minutes in 2014-15 and 2015-16 is 0.26.

    Year over year correlation of 5v5 IPP? 0.25.

  128. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    godot10,
    Oh, we are in agreement, shocking I know.

    This is most preferable.

    4-4-1
    Lucic, Drai, Nuge, Ebs, Klef, Sekera, Larsson, Davidson

    The verbal suggests Oilers are worried they lose Davidson for free. So protect him then. Let Vegas choose one out of Khaira, Maroon, Reinhart.

    Someone has to go. No way around it. Maybe give them a 3rd round pick to take someone other than those three.

    If we are saying Davidson is worth more than a 3rd, then why don’t we feel okay about giving up a 3rd and keeping all the pieces we want then?

    Plus, Davidson will have much more trade value AFTER the expansion draft, after eight to 10 other teams have lost a defensemen.

    Protecting Davidson, unless one gets an incredible offer for him, is the RIGHT move. It means one bargain Russell down.

    It is silly to worry about losing Maroon, or Kassian. Davidson has far more value than either of them do.

  129. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is an awesome post, thank you.

    But, solely on the matter of IPP… Doesn’t IPP also indicate the one-lineliness (l-oneliness?) of a team? …in other words how shitty the rest of the team is scoring in comparison?

    No, its just the percentage of points a player gets when he is on the ice and the team scores.

    “When his team scores and the player is on the ice, what percentage of those goals does he get a point?”

  130. Mr. D. says:

    Reinhart will not go at the expansion draft unless he agrees to a two-way. He hasn’t proved anything except in the AHL. WHY THE FK do you think Chia is pumping his tires.
    Russell signing big is a mistake of Lucic proportions.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    Folks say sh% is primarily luck.

    I’m not sure who says that.

    The fluctuations from their career number can be described as “luck”, but most shooters have a baseline and that baseline can vary quite a bit from player to player and that’s universally known as a skill.

  132. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    P.S. Darcy, thank you for providing the 4-93-14 data. Thank you very much.

  133. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No, its just the percentage of points a player gets when he is on the ice and the team scores.

    “When his team scores and the player is on the ice, what percentage of those goals does he get a point?”

    Perfect. Thank you, always get that confused and was too busy today to look it up.

    Any idea where the mean lies, and what the standard deviation is? Or a website that does? Checked your OP but didn’t see a reference.

  134. Melman says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    reading this are if you were king of the bench would you run:

    27-97-67
    29/93-14
    19-36-42

    or would you simply swap Dr. Drai and Poo from what they’ve been running?

  135. classict says:

    Woodguy v2.0: No, its just the percentage of points a player gets when he is on the ice and the team scores.

    “When his team scores and the player is on the ice, what percentage of those goals does he get a point?”

    There was somewhere, months ago, that I was seeing IPP listed as a percentage of the entire team’s points, regardless of if the player was on the ice. Which may lead to some of that confusion.

    Your definition is the one I first heard and the one that is actually somewhat useful.

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: The problem I could see here is that people were operating on the assumption that IPP isn’t heavily influenced by luck.
    Seeing as how it’s basically a box car metric I feel like it has to be heavily luck driven.

    Like every counting stat is subject to significant variation in smaller samples which is why I posted a 5 year number, which is big enough to show talent.

  137. Jethro Tull says:

    IPP seems to be a glorified +/-

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    classict: There was somewhere, months ago, that I was seeing IPP listed as a percentage of the entire team’s points, regardless of if the player was on the ice. Which may lead to some of that confusion.

    Your definition is the one I first heard and the one that is actually somewhat useful.

    Yeah, THAT IPP was in regards to evaluation Junior Dmen.

    “What percentage of a teams goals was the player involved in”

    It wasn’t a NHL metric at that time, but David Johnson add his definition of IPP to his site (percentage of points/goal ON ICE) and that’s become the defacto definition for NHL purposes.

  139. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    IPP seems to be a glorified +/-

    No, it has nothing to do with goals against.

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melman:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    reading this are if you were king of the bench would you run:

    27-97-67
    29/93-14
    19-36-42

    or would you simply swap Dr. Drai and Poo from what they’ve been running?

    With the current roster I like:

    27/19 – 97 – 42/67
    29 – 93 – 14
    27/19 – 51 – 67/42
    54 – 55 – 44

    Sleppy is good at what 97 needs his wingers to do:

    1) Pass him the puck in the nzone
    2) Get the puck back on the boards and give it to him again
    3) Get to a shooting area
    4) Shoot

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    P.S. Darcy, thank you for providing the 4-93-14 data. Thank you very much.

    No worries

  142. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    spoiler: Perfect. Thank you, always get that confused and was too busy today to look it up.

    Any idea where the mean lies, and what the standard deviation is?Or a website that does?Checked your OP but didn’t see a reference.

    check it out at stats.hockeyanalysis.com far right column in “Individual stats”

  143. Bank Shot says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Interesting, and I did not know this before I looked it up, here are the Oiler numbers.

    Not surprisingly McDavid has the best IPP% on the team at 84%.

    This is followed by, in order, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Draisatl.These are the Oilers best forwards.

    I’ll give everyone one guess who is last.

    2013-2017 RNH-65.8
    Lucic- 63.8

    Doesn’t look too far off.

    Anyway when you look at the four year spread and you have guys like Hudler, Stafford, and Schwartz in your top 20 we can see its not a perfect metric for judging player ability.

  144. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Like every counting stat is subject to significant variation in smaller samples which is why I posted a 5 year number, which is big enough to show talent.

    I just looked up 9 years of data. 2007-2016. 5000 minutes played requirement.

    Hall is 2nd. Jordin Tootoo is 15th.

    Granted most of the names in the top 40 are very good hockey players but there are a few real wonky ones even in a very large sample size.

    Now of course Taylor Hall is a great hockey player but saying he’s on a level with say Crosby when it comes to generating offence because of this one stat is a dangerous claim to make IMO.

    He’s a guy that has benefited from two outlier seasons.

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