FARM PRODUCE

Among the comments from this morning’s blog came an interesting item from Younger Oil:

  • Younger Oil: When was the last time an Oilers prospect playing in the AHL came up and hit their NHLE? I’m guessing it doesn’t happen very often due to the fact that a player getting Top 6 time in the AHL usually gets Bottom 6 time in the NHL, but even so, most of the time the NHLE is noticeably different from the actual results.

Quite true. With the exception of Jesse Puljujarvi, who is going to spend a lot of time on a skill line in Edmonton barring a major plot twist, prospects playing in the top 6F AHL are likely headed for support jobs in the NHL—if they get there. The real answer to the question is contained in the Farm Workers post I pass along on April fool’s each year. The pertinent item is No. 9:

  • Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study.

Future NHL skill forwards don’t spend much time in the AHL, unless they have some specific malady (Edward Purcell: foot speed) to overcome in the eyes of the high foreheads. Example: Daniel Cleary. He scored 115 points for the Belleville Bulls at age 16 (1995-96) but he was unable to establish himself as an NHL player with his first team (Chicago Blackhawks). By the time Cleary became a productive NHLer, he was a hard-working winger, a man who accepted a role, worked hard to play in a tight-checking system, and used his God given talent to score 20 goals a season in aid of his team. That is a very useful player, but he had to adjust and become something other than the kid who ran circles around other teenagers at age 16.

The NHL is populated by men who were dominant at 16 in their various junior leagues, owning the puck for shifts at a time. But at 22 or 25, in the NHL, the player database (save a precious few) is filled with men who pressure and cut off lanes and force opposition from puck—without ever having the puck and controlling it as they did long ago. Learning that trade, and then learning to post some offense while being so disciplined, is the key to NHL success for AHL players. Let’s look at the last several AHL seasons for Oilers forwards. I am identifying prospects who posted .500 points-per-game or more, and looking for men who have played substantial time inside the Top 6F in Edmonton:

2010-11

  • Linus Omark 28gp, 14-17-31 1.11
  • Liam Reddox 37gp, 18-15-33 .892
  • Mark Arcobello 26gp, 11-11-22 .846
  • Colin McDonald 80gp, 42-16-58 .725
  • Teemu Hartikainen 66gp, 17-25-42 .636

All of these men got at least a shot in the NHL, none of them spent extended time in a feature role. Omark is the one player in this group who really did display exceptional offensive talent, in my opinion.

2011-12

  • Linus Omark 18gp, 6-10-16 .889
  • Magnus Paajarvi 34gp, 7-18-25 .735
  • Teemu Hartikainen 51gp, 14-18-32 .627
  • Mark Arcobello 73gp, 17-26-43 .589
  • Phil Cornet 67gp, 24-13-37 .552

Paajarvi had a fast start to his NHL career, and is still trying to get back there (encouraging game last night). None of these men spent extended time on an NHL scoring line.

2012-13

  • Toni Rajala 46gp, 17-28-45 .978
  • Mark Arcobello 74gp, 22-46-68 .919
  • Teemu Hartikainen 47gp, 14-23-37 .787
  • Phil Cornet 46gp, 15-18-33 .717
  • Magnus Paajarvi 36gp, 4-16-20 .526

This is the lockout year, so the numbers are spiked a little. Marcobello was a nice success story, that was Bill Scott if I recall, good job on finding a player in the hinterlands. No top NHL 6F here.

2013-14

  • Mark Arcobello 15gp, 10-18-28 1.87
  • Anton Lander 46gp, 18-34-52 1.13
  • Linus Omark 29gp, 14-15-29 1.00
  • Roman Horak 53gp, 21-27-48 .906
  • Andrew Miller 52gp, 8-26-34 .654
  • Tyler Pitlick 39gp, 8-14-22 .564

Arcobello was too good for the AHL by this time, Lander and Omark showed well and Horak probably could have helped had he stayed. Pitlick showed signs of life. None of these men has spent a lot of time on an NHL scoring line.

2014-15

  • Anton Lander 29gp, 9-22-31 1.07
  • Andrew Miller 63gp, 27-33-60 .952
  • Iiro Pakarinen 39gp, 17-11-28 .718
  • Curtis Hamilton 63gp, 12-20-32 .508

Lots of track to go for Lander and Pakarinen in their respective careers, but I don’t think we can project them as likely to spend a bunch of time on a skill line.

2015-16

  • Tyler Pitlick 37gp, 7-13-21 .568
  • Jujhar Khaira 49gp, 10-17-27 .551

Both men have a chance at a career with the Oilers (or elsewhere), but we can agree that they will be role players, third and fourth liners, as NHL forwards.

2016-17

  • Anton Slepyshev 9gp, 3-7-10 1.11
  • Jujhar Khaira 24gp, 8-10-18 .750
  • Jesse Puljujarv 9gp, 3-6-8 .750

This is an interesting group, and it will be disappointing if JP doesn’t spend many years on a scoring line—that is the expectation. I think Slepyshev has a slight chance too, and Khaira’s offense has been such a difficult target, but I think he will have a career as an NHL checker. Puljujarvi is 18, that’s really young to be here, and we have to factor that into this conversation. It is also true that he was coming off knee surgery this past summer—he looks fast as lightning now, as displayed by that breakaway last night. I don’t see a top 6F from 2010-16, but the 2016-17 Condors have Puljujarvi, and maybe Slepyshev. I wonder what the future holds.

TONIGHT’S PROJECTED LINEUP

  • Iiro Pakarinen—Anton Lander—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Joey Laleggia—Josh Currie—Taylor Becl
  • Ryan Hamilton—Jere Sallinen—Patrick Russell
  • Scott Allen—Kyle Platzer—Joel Reichlicz
  • Jordan Oesterle—Mark Fayne
  • Dillon Simpson—David Musil
  • Mark Fraser—Bryce Aneloski
  • Jonas Gustavsson (Nick Ellis)

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43 Responses to "FARM PRODUCE"

  1. judgedrude says:

    Can I repost this question from the previous thread as it is still relevant, and I’m interested in the answer?

    ————

    Question for LT (or somebody else) regarding NHLe values.

    These are values for players coming out of a league and into the NHL, and LT has shown in the past that there are age variations, particularly for AHL players. For instance, a 1 ppg 20 year old will perform better than a 27 year old.

    That said, how good are the statistics on an 18 year old, such as our good Finn. Most comparable players would stay in Europe, the CHL, or go to college. I’m concerned that the AHL Draft +1 number would not be sufficiently accurate because of a lack of prior players as comparables.

  2. Lowetide says:

    judgedrude:
    Can I repost this question from the previous thread as it is still relevant, and I’m interested in the answer?

    ————

    Question for LT (or somebody else) regarding NHLe values.

    These are values for players coming out of a league and into the NHL, and LT has shown in the past that there are age variations, particularly for AHL players. For instance, a 1 ppg 20 year old will perform better than a 27 year old.

    That said, how good are the statistics on an 18 year old, such as our good Finn. Most comparable players would stay in Europe, the CHL, or go to college. I’m concerned that the AHL Draft +1 number would not be sufficiently accurate because of a lack of prior players as comparables.

    Rob Vollman, who runs the NHLE that I use, suggests 19-22 year olds should have a multiplier of .53 instead of .45. Although I don’t have an 18-year old NHLE, the article yesterday used .53 for JP and others of this age group.

  3. Pouzar says:

    Ryan Holt ‏@CondorsHolty 1m1 minute ago
    More
    Ryan Holt Retweeted Bakersfield Condors
    Rechlicz back in. He fought MacDermid twice last time. Reinhart is out with an injury.

  4. Centre of attention says:

    Sounds like Puljujarvi will be on a line with Lander tonight.

  5. Centre of attention says:

    Pretty sure the Oilers are attempting to acquire forward Derek Ryan from the Carolina Hurricanes.

  6. jfry says:

    Why would they want Ryan? He’s basically beck.

  7. judgedrude says:

    Lowetide: Rob Vollman, who runs the NHLE that I use, suggests 19-22 year olds should have a multiplier of .53 instead of .45. Although I don’t have an 18-year old NHLE, the article yesterday used .53 for JP and others of this age group.

    That sounds reasonable. But I can’t help but think there should be a little bit of a handicap given to 18 year Olds. Drai’s year seems to be an example of that, where his NHL production didn’t match his WHL points. I look forward to similar goodness from JP.

  8. Centre of attention says:

    jfry:
    Why would they want Ryan? He’s basically beck.

    Ryan can play center and shoots right. That’s enough to be on the Oilers radar.

    He’s shown the ability to play on Carolina’s roster this year which is a big step from the AHL.

  9. JJS says:

    jfry:
    Why would they want Ryan? He’s basically beck.

    Well he does have a local connection which appears irresistible to Oiler brass…

    He actually was very noticeable when the Oil played Carolina recently. The commentators were raving about him and his contributions to the team.

    I haven’t seen much of Beck but Ryan is producing in the NHL. Beck isn’t.

  10. JJS says:

    Centre of attention: Ryan can play center and shoots right. That’s enough to be on the Oilers radar.

    He’s shown the ability to play on Carolina’s roster this year which is a big step from the AHL.

    Bam! Beat me to it

  11. npanciroli says:

    Did not know Ryan was 30. Interesting career path.

  12. Glass says:

    Ryan had a solid showing when we played Carolina.

  13. Centre of attention says:

    Stauffer has been talking about Ryan for quite some time during his golden bear rants stretching back to the fall.

    I know Stauffer’s not the gold standard but he does hear things from time to time and he mentioned Derek again during Seravalli’s bit on OilersNow. That entire conversation was actually quite interesting for what it’s worth.

  14. JDï™ says:

    Should the Oilers be importing produce from California? Isn’t that bad for their carbon footprint?

  15. jfry says:

    re: ryan

    he’s a 30yo NHL rookie who is minus ten and less than .5 pts/gm.
    we can do better!!! he’s not our pisani.

    this feels like POS and Lupul all over again. one saw him good against he oilers and everyone wants him. his body of work this year isn’t that strong. his body of work as a pro isn’t that strong.

    we have lander and khaira and beck and jp. i don’t think a fringe player is really what this team needs. he’s not going to be the answer to the 36 problem at center on the third line. he’s a 14th forward at best on a playoff team.

    i’m fine with getting him, but hope we never have to play him.

  16. dcsj says:

    I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m getting extremely bored/annoyed with the mandated week off.

  17. Scungilli says:

    jfry:
    re: ryan

    he’s a 30yo NHL rookie who is minus ten and less than .5 pts/gm.
    we can do better!!! he’s not our pisani.

    this feels like POS and Lupul all over again. one saw him good against he oilers and everyone wants him. his body of work this year isn’t that strong. his body of work as a pro isn’t that strong.

    we have lander and khaira and beck and jp. i don’t think a fringe player is really what this team needs. he’s not going to be the answer to the 36 problem at center on the third line. he’s a 14th forward at best on a playoff team.

    i’m fine with getting him, but hope we never have to play him.

    For sure. Lander is as good given everything the same. Look within and it’s free.

    Only spend for a clear advantage when victory is at hand or in the future

  18. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Anyone have a link for this game?

  19. PREDICKTER says:

    Tampa Bay are one of the teams very interested in acquiring Davidson I’m told. Not sure who or what would be coming back, but they have been talking to the Oilers about it.

  20. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Also any word on the nature/severity of the Reinhart injury?

  21. Bruce McCurdy says:

    JDï™:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    http://onhockey.tv/

    Safe to give them my credit card number mber when I sign up? Seems odd for a “free” account

  22. JimmyV1965 says:

    I doubt the Oil will be acquiring Ryan. In this case, Stauffer is just pumping up a former Bear. I think there’s some bragging going on there too because Sfauffer predicted him to make the NHL.

  23. Lowetide says:

    No feed tonight that I have found. Condors down 2-0 in the first.

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    A look at the 8 most common D-pairs and their goal for/against results with the 5 main centers.

    No shot data used at all!! I promise!!!

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/02/a-look-at-how-oilers-d-pairs-have-done.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  25. JDï™ says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Safe to give them my credit card number mber when I sign up? Seems odd for a “free” account

    I’m watching a stream from that link, and haven’t been asked for my CC number.

    Maybe they’re profiling visitors? 😉

  26. bsmart says:

    I would offer Eberle plus for Duchene, anyone think Colorado would bite?

  27. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Onhockey.tv working fine.

    2 clicks and it’s going. Even on mobile. Just tried it on the iPhone.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Puljujarvi has a goal in the third, 2-1 now.

  29. jfry says:

    why is Gus getting so many starts in Bakersfield? Feels like a bit of a waste to have him playing and both LB and Ellis sitting out.

  30. leadfarmer says:

    PREDICKTER:
    Tampa Bay are one of the teams very interested in acquiring Davidson I’m told. Not sure who or what would be coming back, but they have been talking to the Oilers about it.

    I don’t get this. Don’t Hedman stralman, garrison and Coburn have anywhere from limited NTC to NMC. I don’t get why they’d go after him. They also have no trades clauses for Killorn, Callaghan, stamkos and Filpula. I don’t see how Davidson gets them out of trouble. They could buy someone out but that is hard with their cap issues with Drouin, Johnson and Palat not only needing new contracts but also raises. Icould see Colorado who desperately needs a dman or New Jersey but These lightning rumors including the Shattenkirk one make little sense

  31. leadfarmer says:

    bsmart:
    I would offer Eberle plus for Duchene, anyone think Colorado would bite?

    No. they need dmen and those trade chips will be used for D men.

  32. Centre of attention says:

    It appears Pakarinen and Puljujarvi have developed a little bit of chemistry. Took a little bit but they looked dangerous tonight. Connected for Puljujarvi’s goal. A nice quick snipe after receiving a pass in stride.

  33. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Centre of attention:
    It appears Pakarinen and Puljujarvi have developed a little bit of chemistry. Took a little bit but they looked dangerous tonight. Connected for Puljujarvi’s goal. A nice quick snipe after receiving a pass in stride.

    11 shots between the 2 of them, JP 6 IP 5 no other Condor more than 3.

  34. GMB3 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 11 shots between the 2 of them, JP 6 IP 5 no other Condor more than 3.

    Did Lander play between them?

  35. GMB3 says:

    PLD has really turned it on with 12 goals in 12 games since being traded. Sam Steel is tearing up the WHL.

    Alex Nylander has I think 19 points in 40 some games in the AHL if we would like to compare with another draft+1 in the AHL right now.

    I question why Michael McLeod got drafted as high as he did. Seems to be shy offensively to me.

  36. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    A look at the 8 most common D-pairs and their goal for/against results with the 5 main centers.

    No shot data used at all!!I promise!!!

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/02/a-look-at-how-oilers-d-pairs-have-done.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Good post.

    Kind of surprised that Sekera’s good play in the offensive zone isn’t really showing up in the numbers.

    One question, would breaking up Russell – Sekera visibly increase our overall goals against? That pair is leading the others across the board in goals against by a fairly wide margin.

    Sure, the offensie isn’t especially clicking right now, so maybe it would help, but that demoralized thing when we’re down two or more from last year was back during our road trip, so keeping the D stout has some importance.

    Also Caggiula’s line needs to do a better job in the D-zone, but I’m not going to be too hard on two rookies and Lucic with his frequent giveaways.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99,

    Thanks Russ.

    I think the overall effect of making 2-83 the 2nd pair would be a slight increase in overall GF%

    If the future follow the first 54 games the goals against would increase slightly, but the goals for would increase even more.

    I didn’t mention it in the post, but 2-4 pairing’s GA/60 has been increasing as the season has progressed so the increase in GF% might be even more than it looks like on the surface.

  38. Pouzar says:

    Just waiting for the Oil to swap Slepy for Pakarinen.

  39. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Great post WG – very nicely laid out. One minor request would be nice to wrap it up would be the sums of the numbers before the binary better worse analysis… The skip to binary better or worse seems like a way to form a narrative instead of illuminating the facts.

    Strongly agree with your suggestion to protect Davison. A #4 d has way more impact on the season due to toi, injuries, lack of replacements than a winger.

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar:
    Just waiting for the Oil to swap Slepy for Pakarinen.

    I’ll lose my shit

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    till_horcoff_is_coach: reat post WG – very nicely laid out. One minor request would be nice to wrap it up would be the sums of the numbers before the binary better worse analysis… The skip to binary better or worse seems like a way to form a narrative instead of illuminating the facts

    Not sure what you are saying.

    A table of total help/hurt for both Goals For and Goals Against?

  42. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Not sure what you are saying.

    A table of total help/hurt for both Goals For and Goals Against?

    Yes, by each center. Just trying to point out you could help by reducing GA by .1 and hurt by reducing GF by 1 but the net result seems off to say 1 good, 1 bad. You highlighted it in your comments but the cherry would be welcome imo.

    That’s a lot of text when really my main sentiment is to say thank you, it was a great read.

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