RUST NEVER SLEEPS

That was one ugly baby. The Edmonton Oilers were not sharp—again—in their first outing after a long layoff, and now Pikes Peak looks even more daunting. The club can’t make the playoffs in February, but they can give back all that hard work if the losing continues. In a season that has been full of full frontal good news, February is beginning to look like a giant piece of bad news.

WELL THAT HAPPENED, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 1-3-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers after 56, 2015-16: 22-29-5, goal differential -30
  • Oilers after 56, 2016-17: 29-19-8, goal differential +11
The record this season remains impressive, and if Edmonton wins the two upcoming home games against Arizona and Philadelphia, the worries of February will perhaps begin to fade. The team is running some incredible luck in their own division, where no one seems overly able to put together a strong 10-game run.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: Nashville, Carolina, Montreal (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Chicago, Arizona, Philadelphia (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Tampa Bay, Florida, Washington, Nashville, St. Louis (2-3-1)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-3, 11 points in 12 games
  • Overall current results: 1-3-0, 2 points in 4 games

Edmonton is doing the one thing they cannot do so far in February: Gather no points. In the Bettman league, a team with a solid lead in the standings merely needs to pick up a Bettman once in awhile in order to maintain the lead. Had the Oilers lost in a shootout last night, the team would be following the pattern of playoff teams since the Bettman point was implemented. However, three actual losses in four games is Coyote ugly and cannot stand. I imagine that message will be passed along in the coming days, and we will likely see a much stronger effort on Tuesday.

ABOUT LAST NIGHT

I am going to dispense with the usual number crunch, suffice to say score effects were in play during a 5-1 loss in which Edmonton won the 5×5 Corsi battle 62-37. The home team started well, pushed in the third period, but in the heart of the game turned the puck over with seeming glee, and looked rusty and addled. I don’t think there is much to learn from drilling down, the issues are obvious and one expects Todd McLellan will have plenty of ammo when the team gets together for their next practice. Milan Lucic (4 giveaways) and Oscar Klefbom (3 giveaways) may want to brace themselves for the video session. Lordy.

MATT DUCHENE

  • Bruce Garrioch: GM Joe Sakic has made it clear to every team that has called him that he wants a young, established blueliner, a high-end prospect and a first-round pick as part of any package if Duchene is to be moved. Source

The Oilers have those things (Oscar Klefbom/Darnell Nurse, Jesse Puljujarvi, first rounder) and it is becoming increasingly obvious they need another forward to push the river. Connor McDavid, who sits first in league scoring, is the single biggest element in any game he is in. Edmonton is having a lot of trouble finding a second line that can get much done, and I think we will see enormous change in the coming months. What is becoming obvious here is that Leon, Nuge, Milan Lucic and Jordan Eberle cannot play tough opposition while also delivering anything resembling consistent offense. Changes will be made, and Matt Duchene’s come available rarely. Perhaps there is a match.

KRIS RUSSELL

Last night, among other things, was a walking advertisement for Kris Russell. I evaluate defensemen via Corsi (along with quality of competition) and Russell does not score well in this metric. However, he is a veteran defender who has delivered excellent GA results this season, and luck has a way of running in one direction long enough to make untrue things appear to be facts. I think we were heading that way before last night, and last night’s game may contribute to signing Russell. Anecdotal evidence is still evidence.

JESSE PULJUJARVI

The big Finn winger is finding the range now in Bakersfield, now sits at 14gp, 5-6-11. That works out to 82gp, 16-18-34 NHLE, and the goals are coming (3-1-4 in his last three games). I think keeping JP down in Bakersfield until the deadline makes sense, but if the plan is to keep him there, the club needs to get him a veteran AHL center who can post offense.

BRIAN BOYLE

  • Joe Smith, Tampa Bay Times: Yzerman chatted with Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli during Friday’s game in Minnesota. You wonder if the young Edmonton team could use a veteran like forward Brian Boyle, 32, a pending unrestricted free agent. The Oilers inquired about Boyle, but Yzerman’s asking price was too high, Canada’s Sportsnet TV network reported. Source

I approve of this plan of action. I spoke with Travis Yost on SSE yesterday, he mentioned Boyle is a player who is fading, and I had the feeling we are looking at a 4C as opposed to the 3C Edmonton needs.

 

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169 Responses to "RUST NEVER SLEEPS"

  1. dcsj says:

    Rustiness was exactly what I was afraid of with this long mid-season layoff. I get the impression that the layoff also compresses the rest of the schedule, which would increase the risk of injury and fatigue. Is that impression correct? In any case, I think the idea of time off in the middle of the season is a bad idea. It’s one of the reasons I oppose the Olympics, but that’s probably another issue. In any case I hope they rethink this one. And I hope the Oilers get it together for the next one.

  2. npanciroli says:

    Can’t believe how frustrating a team that is third in the division can be. Eberle, Pouliot, Lucic, RNH really doing their best to make sure this team misses the playoffs.

    I also feared this would happen, it’s like more ammunition to 4×4 Russell.

  3. J-Bo says:

    A Russell signing makes sense if Klefbomb is traded out for Duchene. Otherwise it appears folly based on the 4 million per talk. I would think a Duchene trade would include one of the 6 million men plus Dreamy. Not sure I make that trade…

  4. Lowetide says:

    J-Bo:
    A Russell signing makes sense if Klefbomb is traded out for Duchene. Otherwise it appears folly based on the 4 million per talk. I would think a Duchene trade would include one of the 6 million men plus Dreamy. Not sure I make that trade…

    I would not sign Russell, no matter the other parts moving out. He doesn’t bring enough offense to be considered a two-way type at this point in his career.

  5. J-Bo says:

    Lowetide: I would not sign Russell, no matter the other parts moving out. He doesn’t bring enough offense to be considered a two-way type at this point in his career.

    I agree with you generally. It’s just that if Klefbomb were dealt and you don’t sign Russell it may push Nurse onto the second pair next year. I would bet a hundred dollars Russell is back in a Flames sweater next year anyways. Word on the street down here in Red Deer is that the Flames were going to sign him but needed to wait for Johnny’s contract to be signed. That took too long and so he signed in Edmonton. I don’t think Edmonton will trade for Duchene and Calgary will outbid for Russell.

  6. frjohnk says:

    Really not surprised we lost last night. The layoff has not helped produce good results for teams. Somebody mentioned last night only 3 teams out of 10 have won their game coming back from the layoff. Now its 3 out of 11.

    Should be interesting to see next Saturdays game between these two teams. Oilers should be closer to top form while the Hawks will have their 1st game after the 5 day layoff.

  7. russ99 says:

    I’m with McLellan on the break effects, sure there were some issues, but emotion and desire aren’t them.

    Too many players defer on this team. The best example is Eberle in the third getting the puck 5 feet away from the net with time and then passing it.

    Need a shakeup to get these guys to work. You can bet McLelllan and Chiarelli are still evaluating who will be here for the Cup run, and half-assing it with the puck won’t win any favors.

    Any word on a Russell’s injury? He took a Subban slapper to the lower leg, so being out still after a week off is a bit of a concern that it could be considerable.

  8. russ99 says:

    Lowetide,

    Nobody ever confused Russell as a two way player.

    We would only have Larsson as a tough own-zone defender, and that won’t win many playoff series.

    You know, balance.

    Our young defense isn’t there yet, we shouldn’t trade a defenseman for a forward. McLellan has shown that we can win the 3-2 games and get Bettman points, so trading for a Duchene to fix the offense and break the defense, seems foolish.

  9. pells says:

    I have been tossing around a Nuge, Davidson, first round pick for Duchene trade for over a month now to family and friends and I have been met mostly with wincing and gut churning. If Davidson turns into Klefbom I would not mind. This teams needs another option. We are not going to get there with Mcdavid allown. Nuge just seems to be treading water and I am more convinced every day that he has reached his ceiling. To me there are only four untouchables – Nurse, Larson, Dria, Mcjesus. As a foot note for any of you out there that still can’t see the value in Russel you are blind and I would have to doubt your hockey sense. Second footnote. Lucic wtf.

  10. franksterra says:

    J-Bo,

    Hmm, I would have thought for cap reasons the Avs would explicitly not want a Steve Austin (and that’s before their collective slumpitude). Klef/Nurse+Jesse+1st seems more like it.

  11. Bruce Wayne says:

    There is a certain irony to the Matt Duchene speculation. It would be just like Chiarelli to trade that kind of price for a worse version of Taylor Hall. The truly sad thing about it is that it would still be a good trade.

    Now if he could get Palat or Johnson from Tampa Bay for a smaller price that would be even better.

  12. Bruce Wayne says:

    franksterra:
    J-Bo,

    Hmm, I would have thought for cap reasons the Avs would explicitly not want a Steve Austin (and that’s before their collective slumpitude). Klef/Nurse+Jesse+1st seems more like it.

    Please. No one would trade that much for Duchene, that is absurd. If the Oilers trade for Duchene it won’t involve a “high end” prospect because the Oilers don’t have any high end prospects (Puljujarvi has more value than a prospect).

  13. Woogie63 says:

    This 5 day break concept is costing teams games. I thought they would have 5 days of practices and team bonding. Then you hear all these players are in warm locations and your starting goalie misses the first practice?

    Did the rules say they could not practice? Could the players held there own practices?

  14. npanciroli says:

    Duchene probably worth more than Hall due to perception and position as well. Not saying that is fair but it is the reality. He’s been taken ahead of Hall internationally before too I think.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    There is a certain irony to the Matt Duchene speculation.It would be just like Chiarelli to trade that kind of price for a worse version of Taylor Hall.The truly sad thing about it is that it would still be a good trade.

    Now if he could get Palat or Johnson from Tampa Bay for a smaller price that would be even better.

    Matt Duchene a poorer version of Taylor Hall? Interesting take. Can you elaborate?

  16. Soup Fascist says:

    How many teams have one forward that truly drive offence on their own – let alone two?

    I really can’t find one “guy” on Minnesota, yet they forechecked the Oilers and many other teams
    Into oblivion.

    There are just too many talented guys right now that are simply not expending enough effort or intelligence to get it done. The names are not a surprise and these individuals are not hard to spot. To paraphrase the coach in Bull Durham:

    “They lollygag up the ice”

    “They lollygag down the ice”

    “Do you what that makes them? ….. That’s Right ….. Lollygaggers”

    Another river pusher to supplement 97 will only help marginally unless the usual suspects decide to get to the tough spots in the ice, stop handing away the puck and pick up the opposition defensively.

    Way WAY too many lollygaggers on this team right now.

  17. Lowetide says:

    russ99:
    Lowetide,

    Nobody ever confused Russell as a two way player.

    Sure they did. Russell brought some offense earlier in his career. He posted over 30 points in 2014-15
    http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/r/russekr01.html

  18. frjohnk says:

    Bruce Wayne: There is a certain irony to the Matt Duchene speculation. It would be just like Chiarelli to trade that kind of price for a worse version of Taylor Hall.

    Im not sure Duchene is a “worse version of Taylor Hall”. Duchene can play both wing and center and both have put up similar numbers box car and possesion stats wise ( Hall may an edge here)

    But with two years to UFA, I do think Duchene has less value, where as Hall has 4 years left at the same contract.

  19. Bruce Wayne says:

    Lowetide: Matt Duchene a poorer version of Taylor Hall? Interesting take. Can you elaborate?

    Is this even a controversial opinion?

    This came up a while back so I looked it up. Hall has better numbers than Duchene across the board. Both played on bad teams over their careers but Hall has scored more in the context of giving up fewer shots.

    He’s a better offensive player for sure, and the numbers indicate he is a better defensive player.

  20. Woogie63 says:

    Sakic’s ask for Duchene is opening too extreme, imo this is a mistake if he wants to trade the guy. Why is Duchene worth three times what Hall got?

    Sakic is making a lot of pretty basic mistakes with this team. Maybe your old star players can’t run a $120M business in a cap league.

    Hires his buddy to coach, then hires is (ex) buddy’s replacement in July. Loads up on forwards has has no depth on defence. Has a culture of losing, wait a minute…..

  21. Bruce Wayne says:

    To elaborate since 2011 Hall has scored more points per game, more pts/60, has a better xGF%, has a better actual GF%, has better Fenwick, and has better relative numbers in all categories.

    Matt Duchene is a very good player, but he is the definition of a weaker version of Taylor Hall (i.e. good enough to be plausibly compared to him but clearly inferior in every way).

  22. teddyturnbuckle says:

    “What is becoming obvious here is that Leon, Nuge, Milan Lucic and Jordan Eberle cannot play tough opposition while also delivering anything resembling consistent offense. Changes will be made, and Matt Duchene’s come available rarely. Perhaps there is a match.”

    Glad to see you are coming around to this idea. I’m not concerned at all about trading Nuge , Eberle or Pouliout for 10 cents on the dollar. That’s 16 million dollars a season that gets you roughly 38 goals between all of them!!!!! You could literally replace all three with better options at free agency for less money!!

  23. Centre of attention says:

    How much better would this team be if we traded Russel for a second round pick and never broke up Sekera-Benning allowing them to fully develop chemistry?

    As for Boyle, he can chip in a few goals while winning face offs. That does have value.

    We already have this player in Mark Letestu. Even better, Letestu is a right shot.

    Unless we get Boyle for relatively little, I pass. Knowing Chiarelli he’s definitely trading Davidson. *sigh*

  24. frjohnk says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    To elaborate since 2011 Hall has scored more points per game, more pts/60, has a better xGF%, has a better actual GF%, has better Fenwick, and has better relative numbers in all categories.

    Matt Duchene is a very good player, but he is the definition of a weaker version of Taylor Hall (i.e. good enough to be plausibly compared to him but clearly inferior in every way).

    Thanks for that. Also as I said earlier, Duchene only has 2 years left on his contract. And while we need a guy like Duchene, blowing a bunch of assets on him with the possibility of losing Duchene in two years would not be good asset management. Going for Duchene would be a good idea if we were close to contending, but we are not.

  25. Lowetide says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    “What is becoming obvious here is that Leon, Nuge, Milan Lucic and Jordan Eberle cannot play tough opposition while also delivering anything resembling consistent offense. Changes will be made, and Matt Duchene’s come available rarely. Perhaps there is a match.”

    Glad to see you are coming around to this idea. I’m not concerned at all about trading Nuge , Eberle or Pouliout for 10 cents on the dollar.That’s 16 million dollars a season that gets you roughly 38 goals between all of them!!!!!You could literally replace all three with better options at free agency for less money!!

    Well, so we are clear, I do not agree with your idea of trading Nuge, Eberle or Pouliuot for 10 cents on the dollar.

  26. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce Wayne: Is this even a controversial opinion?

    This came up a while back so I looked it up.Hall has better numbers than Duchene across the board.Both played on bad teams over their careers but Hall has scored more in the context of giving up fewer shots.

    He’s a better offensive player for sure, and the numbers indicate he is a better defensive player.

    Nobody said it was controversial. You said something that piqued the interest and has been deemed worthy of debate by the group.

    Can you elaborate how an individual player, particularly a forward can ‘give up’ shots. He can certainly take them and somewhat control when he takes them, but i would say the ability to give up shots or shots against is both a team stat and quantitive game stat.

  27. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    To elaborate since 2011 Hall has scored more points per game, more pts/60, has a better xGF%, has a better actual GF%, has better Fenwick, and has better relative numbers in all categories.

    Matt Duchene is a very good player, but he is the definition of a weaker version of Taylor Hall (i.e. good enough to be plausibly compared to him but clearly inferior in every way).

    I agree. Hall is better, unfortunately the people running NHL teams do not see it the same way. How did you like last night’s game? 6 goals! Super exciting!

  28. Lowetide says:

    Bruce Wayne: Is this even a controversial opinion?

    I don’t know, I was interested in your view, not about it being controversial. How much import do you put on Duchene being a center. I know that wasn’t part of your original post, but am interested in your view on this player.

  29. Scungilli says:

    I am not disappointed with the expected loss, but with the poor team play. IT has really been bad the last while.

    I can’t analyze systems to give specifics, but what I see is the Oilers are paying the perimeter all over the ice. In the O zone they try to cycle but support is weak and nobody seems to know how to get open or how to make that set up.

    They seems to give up central ice in the N zone toward their line and top of the D zone meaning easy time for the enemy getting in. They break the cycle fairly well, but have issues with players right on the edge of the paint getting position on them, exactly what they can’t do at the other end.

    They also let players get shots off from the slot too much. It’s all middle ice stuff.

    The smaller D are the ones that seem to struggle wit net front coverage. I don’t want Sekera, Russell and Benning all playing together. Sekera and Benning can move the puck at least and could be paired to minimize their weakness

    Sekera Larsson
    Nurse Benning
    Klefbom NotASmallGuy
    Davidson X

    I have commented before that while players and especially D do have learning curves, we should always be able to see the progression forward underlying the wobbles. Klefbom is a fine player, he has the tools to be anything he wants, but don’t let that cloud what he is actually doing.

    He’s got some offense, can pass and has speed, but he struggles in his own end and is not physical. As I see it at his age this is it folks. He will get more refined, but his on ice character has formed. Davidson settled in later, but is only a year older and last year was a better D zone player than Klef is now.

    My point is that for my taste, if I could get a top line centre for a lower first and a wobbly offense oriented D when I have 17 lefties in the system I’d do it in a heartbeat. Duchene is better than Klef, and the first wont’t be better likely. They might even take Eberle at 4M to replace the old guys on the way out to help replace offense lost. Or Nuge.

  30. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Lowetide: Well, so we are clear, I do not agree with your idea of trading Nuge, Eberle or Pouliuot for 10 cents on the dollar.

    Fair enough but I don’t think you can come back with any of those 3 players next year and the problem is they have no trade value. So how do you move them to improve your team?

  31. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: Well, so we are clear, I do not agree with your idea of trading Nuge, Eberle or Pouliuot for 10 cents on the dollar.

    how bout 32 cents?

    EBERLE for Dustin Brown. We retain half of EBERLE’s contract.
    Nuge for Matt Moulson. We can throw in Bear and Jones to tilt it even more!
    Pouliot for Andrew MacDonald. Hey!, We can add to the leftorium…..in the AHL for 4 more years at $5M!

  32. Scungilli says:

    Russell is fine at Gryba money, which is what he’s worth. If he’s much over a million it’s poor cap usage. He also struggles with net front coverage which I think is size again and losing position.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Is this even a controversial opinion?

    No one said it was.

    You posited something and were asked politely to extrapolate.

    You don’t always need to have your back up.

  34. Bruce Wayne says:

    Lowetide: I don’t know, I was interested in your view, not about it being controversial. How much import do you put on Duchene being a center. I know that wasn’t part of your original post, but am interested in your view on this player.

    Sorry for the testiness. My fault.

    Honestly, being a center doesn’t come into it for me, other than the small value to the team positional flexibility gives a coach. For it to be a significant factor it would have to be demonstrated that a) there was a short supply of centers and/or b) it was harder to score while playing center. I don’t believe either is true.

    Draisatl doesn’t suddenly lose value if he plays the wing.

  35. Bruce Wayne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bruce Wayne,

    Is this even a controversial opinion?

    No one said it was.

    You posited something and were asked politely to extrapolate.

    You don’t always need to have your back up.

    You are correct. I do always have my back up. And I shouldn’t. Old habits.

  36. Lowetide says:

    teddyturnbuckle: Fair enough but I don’t think you can come back with any of those 3 players next year and the problem is they have no trade value. So how do you move them to improve your team?

    Well, they are going to come back with Milan Lucic, the other two may not return. I would not trade Nuge at a low ebb, and Eberle may not go until the trade deadline next year. Getting out from under contracts is a tough thing to do.

  37. Bruce Wayne says:

    Chachi: I agree. Hall is better, unfortunately the people running NHL teams do not see it the same way. How did you like last night’s game? 6 goals! Super exciting!

    I detect a note of sarcasm, but as a friendly jibe, which I appreciate.

  38. Scungilli says:

    Each trade that is made is unique. The league is constantly in flux depending on many influences. Hall may be a little better than Duchene, but centre is a more important position and harder to acquire. The cost will be higher than Hall.

    Really Sakic is trading for futures which has risk associated. Duchene is a young first line centre. The only issues is his contract. A prospect and draft pick are gambles, one that Sather cashed many times in his favour. The established young D is the only up front cost and still isn’t a given.

    I don’t see him play enough to know if he is Gagner at the D side of things, but if he isn’t I think it would be worth the cost, and his re-signing could be discussed before the trade.

  39. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne: I detect a note of sarcasm, but as a friendly jibe, which I appreciate.

    That is exactly how it was intended to be received Mr. Wayne.

  40. Snowman says:

    You know what my biggest concern is with the secondary scoring.

    Why in the hell does Maclellan continue to run 14 and 27 on the same line? Even after all the lines got the MacBlender yesterday they were still together.

    They didn’t work at the start of the year with McDavid. They didn’t work in the middle of the year with Nuge. They didn’t work last night in the third period with McDavid. Why are those two a pair that never gets moved apart?

    I am somewhat concerned with the coaching staff identifying effective pairings.

    I don’t understand why you wouldn’t try running:

    19-97-14
    27-93-29

    It seems obvious. Blatantly obvious. Hasn’t happened.

    McDavid and Maroon produce together. McDavid and Eberle produce together when not with Lucic. Nuge needs a driver…give him Leon. Lucic has chem with Leon.

    Or flip Mcdavid and Nuge. Just please for the love of all that is Oilers stop forcing Ebs and Lucic together.

  41. Snowman says:

    Also why does it matter if Duchene is a worse version of Taylor Hall?

    I’m pretty sure if you trade Nuge-Nurse and whatever and you get Duchene you are a better team.

    I’m pretty sure if you trade Eberle-Davidson and whatever you are a better team.

    Hall trade is finit. This is a different trade. Duchene makes the Oilers better basically as long as you don’t give up Leon or Connor.

    It will never happen.

  42. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Lowetide: Well, they are going to come back with Milan Lucic, the other two may not return. I would not trade Nuge at a low ebb, and Eberle may not go until the trade deadline next year. Getting out from under contracts is a tough thing to do.

    I’m not sure you can hang on to Ebs for that long. I heard a few boo birds last night when he turned the puck over in the third. Reminded me of what happened to Justin Schultz when he was booed constantly and the G.M. was forced to move him immediately.

  43. Lowetide says:

    Bruce Wayne: Sorry for the testiness.My fault.

    Honestly, being a center doesn’t come into it for me, other than the small value to the team positional flexibility gives a coach.For it to be a significant factor it would have to be demonstrated that a) there was a short supply of centers and/or b) it was harder to score while playing center.I don’t believe either is true.

    Draisatl doesn’t suddenly lose value if he plays the wing.

    Haha. No worries. Words hit us all differently, depending on mood. Like beer. 🙂 I went off on poor Woodguy not long ago, poor bastard had no idea it was coming. 🙂

    I think your point about position not being germane is an interesting one. Maybe we have been fixated on center so long we have forgotten the value of a great winger. Wish we had one!

  44. Woogie63 says:

    This little stretch of games has provided me with more clarity on the teams make up.

    Changes I would make;

    McDavid needs a shooter on his right wing.
    Draisaitl is ready to be our 2C…2C>1RW
    Nuge is a great 3C
    Sekera-Larrson 25 minutes a night against to toughest as the others develop
    We need to trust a back goalie can get you points- going with Talbot without a practice was very telling
    We are missing Nurse’s size and game

  45. anjinsan says:

    Folly:
    1) Terrible asset management of Schultz (Pittsburgh says thanks a million) and now scrounging for a RHD who can QB the powerplay. Right now in 2 fewer games Schultz has the same number of points as Shattenkirk but is +29 while Shatty is -10.
    2) Trading Hall and now scrounging for a driver for the 2nd line! For sure Larsson is a value-added but losing Hall is a much larger value-subtracted. And given RNH’s, Eberle’s, and Pouliot’s fall off it’s not hard to sense the Hall trade had ripple effects.
    3) Lucic looks fat and happy.

    Desperation:
    In line with Reinhart and Hall, Chiarelli is to be fully expected to pull another flagrant overspend.

  46. ashley says:

    I don’t usually get too excited about the trade possibilities floated here, but Duchene is a tantalizing option. An elite center with versatility to play wing would give this team quite the boost in the CMD value contract years.

    There is no way I would trade Larsson or Klefbom though. Whac a mole.

    I think it could be done for Nurse (or Davidson), Puljujarvi, and our first. I would do that. Two years of Duchene plus a strong option for an extension playing on CMD’s team.

    Even better would be Nurse, Davidson and our first. And I like Nurse and Davidson.

    I wouldn’t do Larsson for Duchene 1 for 1 and I doubt Chia would consider it either. Larsson is more valuable to THIS team than a scoring forward, IMO. Not to mention his value contract.

    Trading either Larsson or Klefbom creates too much of a hole.

  47. Pouzar says:

    Vaughn Woodruff ‏@conkanen 23h23 hours ago
    Got money on the Hawks tonight. Just a feelin.

    Vaughn Woodruff ‏@conkanen Feb 11
    The TMcBlender will be in full effect tonight.

    Smart guy. 😛

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    In regards to Hall vs. Duchene.

    Data from 11/12-today

    INDIVIDUAL 5v5 SCORING: (and NHL rank over that time – 3000+ min)

    Goals/60
    MD 0.97 – tied 21st
    TH 0.77 – tied 83rd

    1st Assists/60
    MD 0.83 – tied 19th
    TH 1.08 – 2nd

    Primary Pts/60
    MD 1.80 – tied 12th
    TH 1.85 – 10th

    So if you’re looking at individual scoring, the saying “Duchene is a worse of Taylor Hall” that’s like saying a 16″ Pecan Pie is a worse version of a 16.25″ Pecan Pie”

    You get a very nice player or pie in each scenario.

    The difference over all is minimal with Hall bringing elite play making and Duchene bringing more high end scoring and overall game (scoring + play making)

    SHOT METRICS:

    Same 11/12-today time frame.

    You need to use rel metrics to compare across teams

    COL and EDM are almost equally as shitty over this time period with EDM having a 5v5 CF of 47.36 (27th) and COL having 46.75 (29th)

    RelCF%
    MD +1.41
    TH +4.32

    Rel CF/60
    MD +4.88
    TH + 8.30

    Rel CA/60
    MD +2.88
    TH -0.99
    (a negative is a good thing here, less shots against)

    So here’s the evidence for Mr. Wayne’s assertion that Hall is a better possession player.

    That certainly is true.

    That said, Duchene is a positive possession player as well, just not at Hall’s level and he does leak chances against comparatively.

    So maybe a 16″ Pecan pie to a 12″ in terms of shot metrics.

    Both are fine Pecan Pie, but one is clearly superior.

    All this being said, I trade 93 + 88 + 1st/Caleb Jones if that gets it done.

    Oilers sorely miss Hall driving a 2nd line.

    All the elite teams have 2 drivers.

    Oilers need one back.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce Wayne: You are correct.I do always have my back up.And I shouldn’t.Old habits.

    I appreciate that.

    I’ve felt “under fire” as well and they you read negativity into every post directed your way.

    Cheers.

  50. npanciroli says:

    I don’t think we would be worried about having a second driver if Lucic, RNH, Eberle, Pouliot posted even close to career average numbers. Really all our woes surround that. McLellan needs to figure out what the issue is.

  51. Lowetide says:

    npanciroli:
    I don’t think we would be worried about having a second driver if Lucic, RNH, Eberle, Pouliot posted even close to career average numbers. Really all our woes surround that. McLellan needs to figure out what the issue is.

    The issue might be Taylor Hall in New Jersey. I swear I saw Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle do good works, but they cannot catch a bus this year. I think they need another impact F, or at least I am beginning to lean that way.

  52. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: I swear I saw Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle do good works

    You did see it. You also saw Nuge score 56 pts sawing off the best of the West on a shitty Oiler team just a couple years ago. That player has been beat out of Nuge. Some team is going to get a helluva player for 40 cents on the dollar.

  53. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    In regards to Hall vs. Duchene.

    Data from 11/12-today

    INDIVIDUAL 5v5 SCORING: (and NHL rank over that time – 3000+ min)

    Goals/60
    MD 0.97 – tied 21st
    TH 0.77 – tied 83rd

    1st Assists/60
    MD 0.83 –tied 19th
    TH 1.08 – 2nd

    Primary Pts/60
    MD 1.80 – tied 12th
    TH 1.85 –10th

    So if you’re looking at individual scoring, the saying “Duchene is a worse of Taylor Hall” that’s like saying a 16″ Pecan Pie is a worse version of a 16.25″ Pecan Pie”

    You get a very nice player or pie in each scenario.

    The difference over all is minimal with Hall bringing elite play making and Duchene bringing more high end scoring and overall game (scoring + play making)

    SHOT METRICS:

    Same 11/12-today time frame.

    You need to use rel metrics to compare across teams

    COL and EDM are almost equally as shitty over this time period with EDM having a 5v5 CF of 47.36(27th) and COL having 46.75 (29th)

    RelCF%
    MD +1.41
    TH+4.32

    Rel CF/60
    MD +4.88
    TH + 8.30

    Rel CA/60
    MD +2.88
    TH -0.99
    (a negative is a good thing here, less shots against)

    So here’s the evidence for Mr. Wayne’s assertion that Hall is a better possession player.

    That certainly is true.

    That said, Duchene is a positive possession player as well, just not at Hall’s level and he does leak chances against comparatively.

    So maybe a 16″ Pecan pie to a 12″ in terms of shot metrics.

    Both are fine Pecan Pie, but one is clearly superior.

    All this being said, I trade 93 + 88 + 1st/Caleb Jonesif that gets it done.

    Oilers sorely miss Hall driving a 2nd line.

    All the elite teams have 2 drivers.

    Oilers need one back.

    Taylor will be UFA 2020-21. Time heals. I feel he wants to come back here.

  54. Lowetide says:

    Lander down, Pakarinen up. ALAS, Puljujarvi has his center. Good Christ LV, please grab Lander.

  55. Pouzar says:

    You can’t make this stupid shit up.

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 11m11 minutes ago
    More
    The #Oilers have recalled Iiro Pakarinen from the @Condors; he remains on Injured Reserve. Anton Lander has been assigned to Bakersfield.

  56. Chachi says:

    anjinsan:
    Folly:
    1) Terrible asset management of Schultz (Pittsburgh says thanks a million) and now scrounging for a RHD who can QB the powerplay.Right now in 2 fewer games Schultz has the same number of points as Shattenkirk but is +29 while Shatty is -10.

    This is just my opinion, but anyone who brings Justin Schultz up as some kind of shot against Chiarelli should be forced to watch every single one of Schultz’s shifts from his last two years as an Oiler “A Clockwork Orange” style until their eyes bleed.

  57. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide:
    Lander down, Pakarinen up. ALAS, Puljujarvi has his center. Good Christ LV, please grab Lander.

    I hope they take him, too. For whatever reason, Anton’s sideburns are longer and more flowing than Joe Namath’s real and Don Mattingly’s imagined combined.

    He was one of very few Oilers who looked engaged last night, no doubt due to not having the time off during the week.

    Oh well. I’m not quite ready to turn in my Lander fan club president badge just yet.

  58. oscarmike says:

    Wow Joe Sakic needs to give his head a shake.

    Klefbom is younger than Davidson and is more establish than him and Nurse.

    Puljujarvi is the next high-End prospect.

    Klefbom+Puljujarvi+2017 1st pick for Duchene

    Hahahahaha. Good luck Joe! Smoke another one

    Joe wanted Hamonic+Brazel+NYI 1st pick for Duchene

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Snowman:
    You know what my biggest concern is with the secondary scoring.

    Why in the hell does Maclellan continue to run 14 and 27 on the same line? Even after all the lines got the MacBlender yesterday they were still together.

    They didn’t work at the start of the year with McDavid. They didn’t work in the middle of the year with Nuge. They didn’t work last night in the third period with McDavid.Why are those two a pair that never gets moved apart?

    I am somewhat concerned with the coaching staff identifying effective pairings.

    I don’t understand why you wouldn’t try running:

    19-97-14
    27-93-29

    It seems obvious. Blatantly obvious. Hasn’t happened.

    McDavid and Maroon produce together. McDavid and Eberle produce together when not with Lucic. Nuge needs a driver…give him Leon. Lucic has chem with Leon.

    Or flip Mcdavid and Nuge. Just please for the love of all that is Oilers stop forcing Ebs and Lucic together.

    I agree with this.

    Here’s some data on it:

    McDavid at center
    27 – 97 – 14 = 217 minutes; 1.65 GF/60
    Not 27- 97 – 14 = 124 minutes; 2.89 GF/60
    27 – 97 – Not 14 = 205 minutes; 3.50 GF/60

    You can see that its not that Eberle doesn’t score well with McDavid or that Lucic doesn’t, but the combination of the two.

    Nugent-Hopkins at center
    27 – 93 – 14 = 80 minutes; 0.00 GF/60 (Holy Moley Kaboley!)
    Not 27 – 93 – 14 = 282 minutes; 2.34 GF/60
    27 – 93 – Not 14 = 87 minutes; 1.37 GF/60

    Again, the combination of Lucic and Eberle is toxic for goal scoring, they shouldn’t play together.

    Overall
    27-14 together 306 minutes; 1.37 GF/60
    27 without 24 = 478 minutes; 2.38 GF/60
    14 without 27 = 470 minutes 2.30 GF/60

    Overall without 97
    27-14 without 97 = 88 min; 0.68 GF/60
    27- without 14 & 97 = 272 min; 1.54 GF/60
    14 without 27 & 97 = 345 min; 2.08 GF/60

  60. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Do you think TMac looks at these numbers?
    Or does he just notice that Eberle hasn’t won a board battle the past two years, so he keeps plugging Lucic out there with Ebs hoping that Lucic helps the line win the odd board battle?

  61. Scungilli says:

    I know I go on about it, but what makes Hall and Duchene better than Nuge and Eberle is explosiveness. They can separate from tight checking players. Like Drouin’s great set up last night, just pulled away and it opened the D up. I think it is becoming more important the tighter D systems get.

    I see it as what is hurting the slumpers this year except Pouliot. Lucic, Nuge and Eberle don’t separate and keeps lanes closed and they have no space and time. It’s what hurts Gryba and Fayne, it’s why young Benning can do what they can’t IMO. It’s usually a part of elite player’s games.

    Running CMD Duchene brings a lot of attack. Curious why the Avs can’t make that work.

  62. JDï™ says:


    theScore ‏@theScore 35s35 seconds ago

    Kings place Devin Setoguchi on waivers. http://thesco.re/2lDqGpI

    There’s your Eberle replacement.

    /s

  63. Richard S.S. says:

    What is Draisaitl from this point on for the rest of his career? Is he McDavid’s winger for the rest of his career or is he a 1A Center for the rest of his career? I don’t think he can be both unless he’s just McDavid’s temporary replacement when needed. If he’s a winger, you need Duchene or someone better. If he’s a Center, you need much better Wingers. It really just that simple.

  64. Scungilli says:

    Chachi: This is just my opinion, but anyone who brings Justin Schultz up as some kind of shot against Chiarelli should be forced to watch every single one of Schultz’s shifts from his last two years as an Oiler “A Clockwork Orange” style until their eyes bleed.

    Amen.

    Good for him a team wants to set him up perfectly to succeed and has the elite forward talent to do it. Let’s see how far down the depth chart he falls in the playoffs. Maybe he turned into Leetch, I doubt it.

  65. Pouzar says:

    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack 31s31 seconds ago
    More
    EDM lines today: Maroon-McD-Eberle, Lucic-Draisaitl-Slep, Caggiula-RNH-Kassian, Hendricks-Letestu-Pouliot.

  66. Centre of attention says:

    Lucic McD Eberle
    Maroon Draisaitl Slepyshev
    Caggiula RNH Kassian
    Pouliot Letestu Hendricks

    Nice to see Slepyshev getting a boost.

    I would flip Lucic and Maroon but that’s just me. I do believe there is a disconnect between 14 and 27.

    You would have to think that when/if he’s activated, Pakarinen would take Hendo’s spot.

    *edit* it appears the tweet I copied had Maroon and Lucic flipped. If it’s the other way I agree with the coach!

  67. stephen sheps says:

    JDï™:

    theScore ‏@theScore 35s35 seconds ago


    Kings place Devin Setoguchi on waivers. http://thesco.re/2lDqGpI

    There’s your Eberle replacement.

    /s

    interesting.

    He’s an Alberta-born player (Taber, in fact), and he’s overcome quite a bit to make it back to the NHL. He’d be a reclamation project similar to Kassian (similar struggles with alcoholism), but at this stage in his career, he’s not an Eberle replacement. In fact, he’s barely above a replacement level winger, sadly. The Kings are a goal-starved team but still saw fit to send him down to the farm.

    I wish him nothing but good luck and success, but other than the connection to TMac (his best scoring years were on the Sharks after all), I don’t think he’s a great fit for the Oilers at this time.

    That said, on a more personal level, he and I have a couple of mutual friends. Because of those friends I know he has, Edmonton sure would be a soft place for him to land.

  68. HT Joe says:

    anjinsan:
    1) Terrible asset management of Schultz (Pittsburgh says thanks a million) and now scrounging for a RHD who can QB the powerplay.Right now in 2 fewer games Schultz has the same number of points as Shattenkirk but is +29 while Shatty is -10.

    Whenever any struggling hockey player leaves an organization and flourishes, the entire management and coaching team should be forced to perform a full-scale evaluation. What went wrong? What did WE do wrong, and what is this new organization doing better? etc.

    To have Jultz have such a stellar year, I certainly hope that Chia and TMac have watched a lot of Jultz’s game tape this year to figure out what they missed. Justin clearly had it in him to contribute positively, but the Oilers clearly never unlocked this.

    I suspect that RNH’s failing offence could really benefit from TMac looking inwards and adjusting his systems to optimize the current roster (instead of expecting a metamorphosis of the roster to optimize his systems).

  69. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack31s31 seconds ago
    MoreEDM lines today: Maroon-McD-Eberle, Lucic-Draisaitl-Slep, Caggiula-RNH-Kassian, Hendricks-Letestu-Pouliot.

    Huzzah!

  70. Snowman says:

    Pouzar:
    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack31s31 seconds ago
    MoreEDM lines today: Maroon-McD-Eberle, Lucic-Draisaitl-Slep, Caggiula-RNH-Kassian, Hendricks-Letestu-Pouliot.

    I am taking credit for this. Although I don’t like the 3rd or 4th lines.

  71. verite says:

    RNH is pure hockey garbage
    Chiarelli is an abject. Abpppject incompetent
    Arizona is a team of me ,Oilers. It
    Expect total collapse
    Gut this teami

  72. Pouzar says:

    Snowman: I am taking credit for this. Although I don’t like the 3rd or 4th lines.

    Hendricks/Pak over Lander. Jezzuz H this org.

  73. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar,

    Pakarinen is still on IR. They have not activated him yet.

    Another shoe to drop?

  74. JDï™ says:

    stephen sheps,

    I think you missed my /s – it’s quicker to type than 😉

  75. npanciroli says:

    Pouzar,

    Maybe they want Lander with JP since the minutes are limited on the 4th line? (not that I agree with this I would run Lander 3C for a bit).

  76. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Did anyone else notice how many of Chicago’s wingers played on their off-hand?
    Got some Sergei Berezin flashbacks.

  77. Snowman says:

    Pouzar,

    I’ve really given up on the Oilers using Lander as anything other than 13F. Doesn’t even phase me anymore.

    He spit on somebody’s mother in law one time I’m pretty sure. Or he kicked somebody’s dog. Or he has long sideburns.

    Pretty sure.

  78. New Improved Darkness says:

    Man, did I drink the Krueger Kool-Aid the last time we experienced an almost magical half-season (looking back, it wasn’t magical by any stretch, but still I saw the light).

    March 1–8, 2013 we gained 1 standing point with a -14 GD over five games. (On our next outing, we parlayed a four-goal explosion in the opening 12 minutes against Chicago into Yann Danis’s first Oiler W, on roughly ten saves, which was also to hold up as his last-ever NHL W.)

    January 31–February 5, 2017 we gained 2 standing points with a -9 GD over five games.

    That’s exactly how much better this season feels right now.

  79. stephen sheps says:

    JDï™:
    stephen sheps,

    I think you missed my /s – it’s quicker to type than

    Oh don’t worry – I knew it was your typical sarcastic self in action… but there are elements of truth in all good satire.

    I genuinely do hope he gets claimed by someone, just not the Oilers…

  80. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pouzar:
    You can’t make this stupid shit up.

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers11m11 minutes ago
    MoreThe #Oilers have recalled Iiro Pakarinen from the @Condors; he remains on Injured Reserve. Anton Lander has been assigned to Bakersfield.

    Sidebar – what’s going on with Iiro anyway? his situation almost reminds me of the curious case of Philip Larsen years ago – missing for a long stretch with no real explanation and not important enough for the media to properly check it out…

    Pouzar:
    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack31s31 seconds ago
    MoreEDM lines today: Maroon-McD-Eberle, Lucic-Draisaitl-Slep, Caggiula-RNH-Kassian, Hendricks-Letestu-Pouliot.

    For a coach that loves vets, he sure appears to have immense and unplaced confidence in Caggiula

  81. Pouzar says:

    npanciroli:
    Pouzar,

    Maybe they want Lander with JP since the minutes are limited on the 4th line? (not that I agree with this I would run Lander 3C for a bit).

    Then why didn’t they do it first thing?

  82. Centre of attention says:

    My understanding is that the Oilers were forced to call up Pakarinen due to his AHL conditioning stint being over. They got the full 5 days, including the 2 day extension on his conditioning stint.

    He now needs to clear waivers if they want to assign him back to the minors.

    If I was Chia I would waive him right now. Little chance he is picked up because of time off due to injury.

  83. Johnny Larue says:

    I was at the game last night and other than Connor McDavid, Anton Lander was the best Oiler on the ice. So the team sending him down is a real head scratcher. He goes down and rips up the AHL gets called up plays great in his role and for this is rewarded by being sent down WTF?

  84. Pouzar says:

    Centre of attention:
    My understand is that the Oilers were forced to call up Pakarinen due to his AHL conditioning stint being over. They got the full 5 days, including the 2 day extension on his conditioning stint.

    He now needs to clear waivers if they want to assign him back to the minors.

    If I was Chia I would waive him right now. Little chance he is picked up because of time off due to injury.

    Thx for this. Makes perfect sense.

  85. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    I don’t think we would be worried about having a second driver if Lucic, RNH, Eberle, Pouliot posted even close to career average numbers. Really all our woes surround that. McLellan needs to figure out what the issue is.

    The issue is that none of those players are drivers.

    Here’s Lucic’s most common partners in BOS for his last 5 years there and his GF/60:

    LUCIC, MILAN 3.05
    KREJCI, DAVID 3.19
    HORTON, NATHAN 3.5
    IGINLA, JAROME 3.09
    SEGUIN, TYLER 4.27
    PASTRNAK, DAVID 3.8
    KELLY, CHRIS 2.4
    BERGERON, PATRICE 3.16

    Notice that when with Kelly, scoring drops significantly. The rest of the time, he’s with very good players.

    Lucic’s year with LAK
    LUCIC, MILAN 3.15
    TOFFOLI, TYLER 3.54
    KOPITAR, ANZE 3.76
    CARTER, JEFF 2.59
    BROWN, DUSTIN 2.41

    Same thing. Puck goes in more often when he’s with the better drivers

    RNH and Eberle since 2012:

    WIth Hall 2.84 GF/60
    Without Hall 2.51 GF/60

    Much less of a drop in volume, but the key drop is in GF%

    With Hall 54.5%
    Without Hall 45.2%

    The goals against dropped a ton (probably due to Oilers having the puck more)

    GA/60
    With Hall 2.38/60
    WIthout Hall 3.04/60

    So the player who people (not saying it was anyone here) called out for “Not have a 200ft game) apparently was a key driver in dropping goals against.

    Its almost like narratives get created on opinion and not facts.

  86. Johnny Larue says:

    verite:
    RNH is pure hockey garbage
    Chiarelli is an abject. Abpppject incompetent
    Arizona is a team of me ,Oilers. It
    Expect total collapse
    Gut this

    Ah a ray of Sunshine on a cloudy day anyways you are consistent

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Did anyone else notice how many of Chicago’s wingers played on their off-hand?
    Got some Sergei Berezin flashbacks.

    Playing off hand isn’t nearly a big of deal for wingers as it is for Dmen.

    Some data shows that off-wingers score more too, but that could be selection bias as well

  88. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Agreed, I think more teams need to use this to their advantage.
    Especially when time is limited in the O-zone.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Do you think TMac looks at these numbers?
    Or does he just notice that Eberle hasn’t won a board battle the past two years, so he keeps plugging Lucic out there with Ebs hoping that Lucic helps the line win the odd board battle?

    Given how often McLellan has run 14 and 17 together I’d have to say that no one in the org is giving him this data.

    Just saw the lines today are:

    19-97-14
    27-29-42
    36-93-44
    23-51-67

    Maybe someone slipped him the data this morning?

    Hehe.

    I actually don’t hate those lines at all.

    I’d swap 36 and 67 as 67-93-44 is 93’s most productive line this year, but I’m not sure you can get 67 from the dog house.

  90. JDï™ says:

    stephen sheps: I genuinely do hope he gets claimed by someone

    Agreed.

  91. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Lucic – Draisaitl – Slepyshev!

    Been waiting weeks for that, we won’t see a weak cycle from that group. Need one in the crease most of the time.

  92. Scungilli says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Sidebar – what’s going on with Iiro anyway? his situation almost reminds me of the curious case of Philip Larsen years ago – missing for a long stretch with no real explanation and not important enough for the media to properly check it out…

    For a coach that loves vets, he sure appears to have immense and unplaced confidence in Caggiula

    Could be the agreement, but it could be his style. He is fast and assertive and gets into the D fast. Not many others not called CMD are doing that every night. Well maybe
    Leon.

    I’ve noticed it seems they want the centres to have speed. That could be why Lander has sideburns. He is also not big. Chia seems to want aggressive wingers who are either big or fast. Anton is falling through the cracks.

  93. bendelson says:

    frjohnk:
    Really not surprised we lost last night.The layoff has not helped produce good results for teams.Somebody mentioned last night only 3 teams out of 10 have won their game coming back from the layoff.Now its 3 out of 11.

    Should be interesting to see next Saturdays game between these two teams.Oilers should be closer to top form while the Hawks will have their 1st game after the 5 day layoff.

    Perhaps we are looking at a new and improved version of the ‘scheduled loss’?

  94. who says:

    Scungilli:
    I know I go on about it, but what makes Hall and Duchene better than Nuge and Eberle is explosiveness. They can separate from tight checking players. Like Drouin’s great set up last night, just pulled away and it opened the D up. I think it is becoming more important the tighter D systems get.

    I see it as what is hurting the slumpers this year except Pouliot. Lucic, Nuge and Eberle don’t separate and keeps lanes closed and they have no space and time. It’s what hurts Gryba and Fayne, it’s why young Benning can do what they can’t IMO. It’s usually a part of elite player’s games.

    Running CMD Duchene brings a lot of attack. Curious why the Avs can’t make that work.

    I can see Lucic, Eberle and maybe even Pouliot lacking separation speed but nuge has it. Not sure Benning does. Like the new lines but man they really don’t like lander do they

  95. Jethro Tull says:

    verite:
    RNH is pure hockey garbage
    Chiarelli is an abject. Abpppject incompetent
    Arizona is a team of me ,Oilers. It
    Expect total collapse
    Gut this teami

    Instructions unclear. Junk stuck in toaster. Please advise.

  96. npanciroli says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Why is it Lucic is with very good players and not they are with a very good player with Lucic.

    What were RNH and Eberle numbers with Pouliot before this year?

  97. Centre of attention says:

    I’m re-watching the game last night and is it just me, or did the Oilers actually play not that bad for the most part 5 on 5?

    Their penalty kill looked junior level but at even strength the Oilers had their fair share of zone time and chances threw out the game.

    Just watched a sequence where twice in the same shift Draisaitl was looking at an empty net but the puck was flouncing about. Every other day he snaps one of those boat-oar wrist shots into the back of the net.

    Talbot would probably like 1 or even 2 of the even strength GAA back, with only one of them being a major defensive break down IMO. Paniks wrister from afar will happen a lot during the season, the goaler must make a save there.

    After taking all that in, the Oilers probably deserved a point out of what looked like a thrashing. (5-1 is still technically a thrashing, my reasoning aside)

    Talbot will come up with those saves next time and if our soldiers can right their aim, we’ll be in good shape moving forwards.

    PS: When does Brossoit get his next start?

  98. Chris says:

    Lucic has been terrible on that line with Nuge and Eberle. He’s standing around flat footed defensively and bobbling pucks in the neutral zone. I’m hesitant to put too much stock in my subjective viewing experience but the numbers have said that Lucic has been a black hole at 5 x 5, so it seems that the visual is confirming the numbers. Pouliot being on that line appears to result in stronger play from Nuge and Eberle, even though Pouliot has not been all that productive this year. I suspect it has to do with his possession numbers.

  99. Chris says:

    Also the last three years of that Lucic contract are going to be a real treat aren’t they? You might as well put a neon stamp screaming buyout in year six.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    Man, did I drink the Krueger Kool-Aid the last time we experienced an almost magical half-season (looking back, it wasn’t magical by any stretch, but still I saw the light).

    March 1–8, 2013 we gained 1 standing point with a -14 GD over five games.(On our next outing, we parlayed a four-goal explosion in the opening 12 minutes against Chicago into Yann Danis’s first Oiler W, on roughly ten saves, which was also to hold up as his last-ever NHL W.)

    January 31–February 5, 2017 we gained 2 standing points with a -9 GD over give games.

    That’s exactly how much better this season feels right now.

    Naw, here’s that team up until the trade deadline April 3, 2013

    All 5v5
    CF% 44.37
    GF% 46.72
    GD -8

    This year’s team
    CF%50.76
    GF% 51.74
    GD +7

    Objects in your mirror are closer than they appear, but they do not include Jerrod Smithson.

  101. godot10 says:

    russ99:

    Need a shakeup to get these guys to work. You can bet McLelllan and Chiarelli are still evaluating who will be here for the Cup run, and half-assing it with the puck won’t win any favors.

    A Cup run under McLellan is not likely to happen. #PastIsPrologue There isn’t a Joe Thornton in the room to counteract and ameliorate some of the weaker aspects of McLellan’s coaching.

    #MediocrityIsADifferentKindOfHell

    It will be interesting to see what Chiarelli does when the OIlers are stilled mired in the mediocrity next season. Whether he will double down after three seasons, or cut bait.

    P.S. Signing Russell with duration will be a debilitating mistake with a flat cap #FerenceAllOverAgain

    P.S. Matt Duschene is two years away from being a $9 million dollar man. With what the Oilers are going to have to pay McDavid and Draisaitl and Lucic, Duschene just isn’t a fit cap wise. Two years of Duschene vs. 7 years of Klefbom (not to mention the top propect and the draft pick)…I choose Klefbom.

  102. Centre of attention says:

    Chris:
    Also the last three years of that Lucic contract are going to be a real treat aren’t they? You might as well put a neon stamp screaming buyout in year six.

    His contract is paid in mostly signing bonus money.

    When you buy out a player, you can only buy out their NHL salary. His bonus is guaranteed, along with the cap hit.

    We would save less than a million against the cap if we bought out Lucic.

    I’ll pay the million and take what little he will give at that point. Or find someone to take the contract completely off your hands, probably costing you an arm if not a leg as well. (Lucic would also have to approve, because he has a full NMC)

  103. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Centre of attention:
    I’m re-watching the game last night and is it just me, or did the Oilers actually play not that bad for the most part 5 on 5?

    Their penalty kill looked junior level but at even strength the Oilers had their fair share of zone time and chances threw out the game.

    Just watched a sequence where twice in the same shift Draisaitl was looking at an empty net but the puck was flouncing about. Every other day he snaps one of those boat-oar wrist shots into the back of the net.

    Talbot would probably like 1 or even 2 of the even strength GAA back, with only one of them being a major defensive break down IMO. Paniks wrister from afar will happen a lot during the season, the goaler must make a save there.

    After taking all that in, the Oilers probably deserved a point out of what looked like a thrashing. (5-1 is still technically a thrashing, my reasoning aside)

    Talbot will come up with those saves next time and if our soldiers can right their aim, we’ll be in good shape moving forwards.

    PS: When does Brossoit get his next start?

    You’re right, other than the stinky penalty killing, the stinky goaltending and the forwards being unable to hit the broad side of a barn the Oilers probably did deserve a point!

  104. Ryan says:

    Bruce Wayne: Sorry for the testiness.My fault.

    Honestly, being a center doesn’t come into it for me, other than the small value to the team positional flexibility gives a coach.For it to be a significant factor it would have to be demonstrated that a) there was a short supply of centers and/or b) it was harder to score while playing center.I don’t believe either is true.

    Draisatl doesn’t suddenly lose value if he plays the wing.

    Draisatl is a poor analogy in my opinion in that he’s demonstrated that he can play centre. I don’t think that there’s any question that teams place a positional value of centres over wingers.

    Top six and potential number one centres are always in short supply.

    Until McDavid, we didn’t have a 1c for years… sort of one year of Horcoff.

    Nuge when paired with Hall served as a poor man’s 1c for awhile.

  105. Centre of attention says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You’re right, other than the stinky penalty killing, the stinky goaltending and the forwards being unable to hit the broad side of a barn the Oilers probably did deserve a point!

    Thats a lot of “other than’s” I admit, and some of the forwards lack of accuracy has been a trend all season.

    I’m probably stretching it by saying a 3-3 tie into OT would have been a better representation, but it definitely should have been closer.

    They need to figure out that third line. IMO if they figure out the third line, it will go a long way to helping the second line. I don’t know if sliding Nuge to 3C is the answer, I would have liked to see Nuge and Leon together but then again Cagguila hasn’t been making the grade at center either so it’s a tough call either way.

    I think Todd McLellans philosophy of “you can never have too many centers” rings true in this situation. They need to slide Cagguila to the wing or even possibly an AHL stint once Khaira gets healthy. Another center option wouldn’t hurt at all.

  106. npanciroli says:

    Looking at some Lucic stats with other teammates throughout his career and he looks like the driver on most lines to me especially Boston. Will do some more digging and post when I’m on a computer.

  107. godot10 says:

    npanciroli:
    I don’t think we would be worried about having a second driver if Lucic, RNH, Eberle, Pouliot posted even close to career average numbers. Really all our woes surround that. McLellan needs to figure out what the issue is.

    McLellan has been looking around the poker table for 30 minutes and can’t figure out who the mark is.

  108. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Had a look at Duchene’s numbers in Colorado. Was expecting to see more time in the penalty kill but it really was minimal until the current season and even now is just over a minute per game. Surprising since he has seen lots of PK duty at the World Championships where I have seen quite a bit of him. Will never forget that tourney where he played between Hall & Eberle at evens and played on both special teams while they played on neither, & never got the shift after either cuz their centre was sucking wind on the bench. That was Lindy Ruff who in my view was The Worst coach of Team Canada in recent memory but he’s hardly alone in the Hockey Canada hierarchy for preferring Duchene over Hall. Not saying it’s right, just that it is.

    One area where Duchene is vastlly superior is in the faceoff circle where he’s rocking a 61.5% win rate this year after 58% a year ago. I had no idea he was so good on the drop.

  109. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The issue is that none of those players are drivers.

    Here’s Lucic’s most common partners in BOS for his last 5 years there and his GF/60:

    LUCIC, MILAN3.05
    KREJCI, DAVID3.19
    HORTON, NATHAN3.5
    IGINLA, JAROME3.09
    SEGUIN, TYLER4.27
    PASTRNAK, DAVID3.8
    KELLY, CHRIS2.4
    BERGERON, PATRICE3.16

    Notice that when with Kelly, scoring drops significantly.The rest of the time, he’s with very good players.

    Lucic’s year with LAK
    LUCIC, MILAN3.15
    TOFFOLI, TYLER3.54
    KOPITAR, ANZE3.76
    CARTER, JEFF2.59
    BROWN, DUSTIN2.41

    Same thing.Puck goes in more often when he’s with the better drivers

    RNH and Eberle since 2012:

    WIth Hall 2.84 GF/60
    Without Hall 2.51 GF/60

    Much less of a drop in volume, but the key drop is in GF%

    With Hall 54.5%
    Without Hall 45.2%

    The goals against dropped a ton (probably due to Oilers having the puck more)

    GA/60
    With Hall2.38/60
    WIthout Hall 3.04/60

    So the player who people (not saying it was anyone here) called out for “Not have a 200ft game) apparently was a key driver in dropping goals against.

    Its almost like narratives get created on opinion and not facts.

    Mr Woodguy, the facts you ring to this blog are brilliant. I also appreciated your analysis on Halls passing ability as part of the reason Nuge and Ebs are suffering.

    I played a lot of hockey and thus my beliefs are fairly well rooted. Good data analysis has forced me tochallenge what I previous believed to be the “right” way or the most valuable attributes. Still lots of intangibles and eye test, but I love the factual data you and others bring to this blog. Yes, data can be manipulated as well, but great info for analysis.

  110. Stelio Kontos says:

    I think this is a classic example of trying to solve a problem in too direct a way. We nee a second line RW and a third line right wing, as well as a third line center. The big boys are obviously overworked because they don’t have a third line capable of taking some minutes against higher end competition. Let’s solve some of these background issues before we start talking about selling the farm. PS, I don’t think duchene is worth what people are willing to pay.

  111. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Centre of attention,

    Thanks for taking my snark in the spirit intended. Big difference between driving 5v5 play when down 2 or 3 goals vs with the game on the line. Other than the first 10 minutes there was no time where I didn’t have the feeling the Hawks were in complete control.

  112. godot10 says:

    Scungilli:
    I know I go on about it, but what makes Hall and Duchene better than Nuge and Eberle is explosiveness. They can separate from tight checking players. Like Drouin’s great set up last night, just pulled away and it opened the D up. I think it is becoming more important the tighter D systems get.

    I see it as what is hurting the slumpers this year except Pouliot. Lucic, Nuge and Eberle don’t separate and keeps lanes closed and they have no space and time. It’s what hurts Gryba and Fayne, it’s why young Benning can do what they can’t IMO. It’s usually a part of elite player’s games.

    Running CMD Duchene brings a lot of attack. Curious why the Avs can’t make that work.

    Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle are give-and-go rush players. McLellan has them playing dump and chase.

  113. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LT: “In a season that has been full of full frontal good news, February is beginning to look like a giant piece of bad news.”

    That line was too good to leave unhighlighted.

    Andre “Red Light” Racicot approves this message.

  114. Pouzar says:

    godot10: Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle are give-and-go rush players.McLellan has them playing dump and chase.

    I agree. All Nuge does now is rush to Blue, chip, chase….lose puck. When they get it they don’t cycle it anymore. WTF happened?

  115. 99266in87 says:

    Was at the game yesterday, Hawks can tic-tak-toe really well. . Movement of their pucks are 3 passes for the general part. Passes were on another level from Oil. Whether 5 feet or 50 feet, they were just as hard. Oil have little possessions of 3 passes. Keith came off every time 97 came off. Hawks don’t rim the breakouts nealy as many times as we do. We dump, but don’t retrieve. Hawks good in the crease are.

  116. blainer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I agree with this.

    Here’s some data on it:

    McDavid at center
    27 – 97 – 14 = 217 minutes; 1.65 GF/60
    Not 27- 97 – 14 = 124 minutes; 2.89 GF/60
    27 – 97 – Not 14 = 205 minutes; 3.50 GF/60

    You can see that its not that Eberle doesn’t score well with McDavid or that Lucic doesn’t, but the combination of the two.

    Nugent-Hopkins at center
    27 – 93 – 14 = 80 minutes; 0.00 GF/60 (Holy Moley Kaboley!)
    Not 27 – 93 – 14 = 282 minutes; 2.34 GF/60
    27 – 93 – Not 14 = 87 minutes; 1.37 GF/60

    Again, the combination of Lucic and Eberle is toxic for goal scoring, they shouldn’t play together.

    Overall
    27-14 together 306 minutes; 1.37 GF/60
    27 without 24 = 478 minutes; 2.38 GF/60
    14 without 27 = 470 minutes 2.30 GF/60

    Overall without 97
    27-14 without 97 = 88 min; 0.68 GF/60
    27- without 14 & 97 = 272 min; 1.54 GF/60
    14 without 27 & 97 = 345 min; 2.08 GF/60

    Man to see theses numbers and watch our coach continue to play the two together is perplexing.

    This is a big league experienced coach with his team NOT scoring. WG shouldn’t have to do his work for him. Jeebus coach get your act together please.

    I agree that maybe try Maroon Ebs and Connor. I was also saying they needed to be split up a couple of months ago.

    The Taylor topic.

    I always found it strange that Taylor wasn’t getting picked for the big tourney’s. It is because coach’s prefer as many centers as they can get. So the coach’s hold the position much higher than the wing. So I guess that does make Duchene more valuable. His 61% winning face off percentage helps too.

    Edit : kinda what Bruce said.

    Me.. I would love to have both or either of them. But I’m not trading Larsson. I am very happy with this player. Watched a couple of players stay away from him last night.. Loved it. I wouldn’t be to quick to go in the corner after the puck with that guy either

    Would love to know other players thoughts about him. He does not look like fun to play against.

    Gonna love that Nurse Larsson pairing in the playoffs.

  117. npanciroli says:

    2010-2014 Lucic

    Krejci (3330:53 together) GF%:61.4 CF%: 55
    Lucic apart: GF:58.2 CF: 54.9
    Krejci apart: GF:44.8% CF:46.6

    Horton (1818 together) GF:62 CF:56.8
    Lucic apart: GF:59.8 CF:53.5
    Horton apart: GF: 47.1 CF: 52.5

    Iginla (1010 together) GF:66.7 CF:53.9
    Lucic apart: GF:59.2 CF:55.4
    Horton apart: GF: 52.9 CF: 48.1

    Every other forward under 400 minutes. Lucic easily the driver here.

    Will do LA next.

  118. digger50 says:

    Just building off my previous post, the stats are telling us Oilers top 4-5 defence men are better than Nurse / Gryba using most established criteria.

    Yet I would say the biggest element missing last night was a Nurse / Gryba type game.

    Chicago owned the front of the Oilers net and there was nothing Sekera, Benning, Klef could do about it. Nor would Russel have helped. Imagine the Hawks dressing room where they say “hey watch your back in front of the net, these Oilers have Sekera, Klefbom, Davidson, Benning, Osterle ….”. And then the room breaks out laughing.

    We have Larson who is physical and brings a little nasty. Good player, but in the scrum against Arizona when Doan grabbed him by the throats and took him for a skate he had no answer. Perhaps not fair as I’m not trying to be down on Larson, he is part of the solution.

    At the start of the year I felt the rugged play of Nurse / Gryba was having an affect. Keep
    Your head up, you will pay the price in front of the net, this is not going to be comfortable.

    Anyhoo, maybe a little old school, but stats aside, I think a little dose of Nurse/Gryba provides a key ingredient to the balance photo.

  119. Bruce McCurdy says:

    digger50,

    Wasn’t that Kassian that Doan grabbed? I’m not remembering any Doan-Larsson incident.

  120. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack31s31 seconds ago
    MoreEDM lines today: Maroon-McD-Eberle, Lucic-Draisaitl-Slep, Caggiula-RNH-Kassian, Hendricks-Letestu-Pouliot.

    Lol..just catching up.. Guess great minds think alike.

  121. blainer says:

    verite:
    RNH is pure hockey garbage
    Chiarelli is an abject. Abpppject incompetent
    Arizona is a team of me ,Oilers. It
    Expect total collapse
    Gut this teami

    Was wondering where you were.

    We are winning Stanley this year or next year.

    I think Chia is safe for now.

  122. digger50 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    digger50,

    Wasn’t that Kassian that Doan grabbed? I’m not remembering any Doan-Larsson incident.

    Pretty sure I it was Larson and I should not have used him as an example. Doan kept his glove on and grabbed him by the throat. Larson should be praised for not taking a stupid penalty. My point more about valuing things like number of bruises given out per 60 as well as traditional stats.

  123. Bruce McCurdy says:

    digger50: Pretty sure I it was Larson and I should not have used him as an example. Doan kept his glove on and grabbed him by the throat. Larson should be praised for not taking a stupid penalty.My point more about valuing things like number of bruises given out per 60 as well as traditional stats.

    Pretty sure Larsson leads the team in this category

  124. blainer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Given how often McLellan has run 14 and 17 together I’d have to say that no one in the org is giving him this data.

    Just saw the lines today are:

    19-97-14
    27-29-42
    36-93-44
    23-51-67

    Maybe someone slipped him the data this morning?

    Hehe.

    I actually don’t hate those lines at all.

    I’d swap 36 and 67 as 67-93-44 is 93’s most productive line this year, but I’m not sure you can get 67 from the dog house.

    Love these lines. Bring it on !!

  125. ASkoreyko says:

    digger50,

    Except Chicago themselves doesn’t have players like you are mentioning. So I don’t think it works as you are describing. Pretty sure Chicago is talking about playing their game and not cowering in fear of Gryba.

    Also Arizona is one of the worst teams in the league, so again not sure why we adjust our roster to deal with a terrible team.

  126. Centre of attention says:

    Also, via Reid Wilkins Khaira / Nurse did not skate today for what it’s worth.

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Almost forgot……..

    WC standing today using games. 8th place set to 0. Ties broken with games in hand (pts%)

    MIN 19
    CHI 13
    SJS 10
    ANA 6
    EDM 5
    STL 2
    NSH 0
    LAK 0
    ———————-
    CGY -2
    VAN -6
    DAL -7
    WPG -8
    ARI -15
    COL -25

    EDM risks sliding back into the pack of 4 who are fighting for the last 3 spots right now.

    Like LT says, sometimes they need to Bettman out a few games to keep the spread.

    WC games today:

    DET @ MIN
    DAL @ NSH
    COL @ NYI
    VAN @ BUF

    SJS beat NJD this afternoon and that is reflected in the standings.

    Also,

    The much more fun EC standing this morning using games. 8th place set to 0. Ties broken with games in hand (pts%)

    WSH 23
    CBJ 16
    PIT 16
    NYR 13 – 1st wildcard
    MON 8
    OTT 6
    TOR 2
    NYI 0
    ————————
    PHI 0
    BOS 0
    FLA -1
    CAR -3
    NJD -4
    TBY -4
    BUF -4
    DET -6

    This is going to be a riot to watch all the way down to the wire.

    BOS taking the new coach bump back into a tie for 8th and the Computer Boys only a game behind

    I think PHI’s goaltending is too variable for them to stay up there, but you never know.

    Speaking of variable goaltending, Bob has run into a cold streak and CBJ is 5-4-1 in their last 10.

    That might be a good thing for them.

    2nd or 3rd place in the Met gets the pleasure of PIT in the first round while the first wild card will get the very variable MTL who are sliding down but are in such a shitty division that they won’t lose 1st place.

    I’d aim for 4th in the Met for sure.

  128. misfit says:

    At one time, Landeskog’s name was being tossed around in addition to Duchene, and even though he’s a LW, that’s the name that interests me most on the Colorado roster (well, McKinnon and Johnson interest me more, but there has been zero talk of them being available).

    It’s true we need another driver up front, but IMO, that’s Gabe, not Matt. Someone who crunches these kinds of numbers can decide if I’m right or not, but that’s how I see it. It always seems like the best line is the one that Landeskog is on despite the fact that he doesn’t have impressive boxcars.

    Even taking position into account, if we’re giving up those kinds of assets for a player, I’d rather we set our sights on Landeskog and sort out our LW situation afterward than Duchene whose reputation and name value exceed his on-ice value.

  129. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    So I know you’ve been a proponent of having a second line “driver” since the hall trade, and since you’ve been watching Pitt.

    You say all elite teams have 2 drivers. Do you consider washington and Nash elite teams? I’ll leave out minny, Montreal, nyr, because there goaltending seems to cover off there mistakes.

    Point is all these teams are lacking more than one “elite driver” the teams that do are the ones that seem to consistently win the shot battle. I think Tmac wants four lines of strong players, like minny or Nashville.

  130. Centre of attention says:

    Nyquist almost Kassian-ed Spurgeon there. This was a two hand slash to the face rather than a one handed swing though.

    I would throw the book at him, that was difficult to watch.

    Yet Nyquist remains in the game.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    Looking at some Lucic stats with other teammates throughout his career and he looks like the driver on most lines to me especially Boston. Will do some more digging and post when I’m on a computer.

    He’s a player in the driving, but not “the” driver.

    Like 67-93-14 for those few months, it was a group effort.

    09-14 – the 5 years that he played most with Horton/Krejci and 2014 was the last of Horton’s career in BOS.

    L-K-H = 3.58 GF/60, 60.6 GF%, 57% CF

    L-K- No H = 2.83 GF/60, 49.3% GF%, 52%CF

    L- No K – H = 3.05 GF/60, 57.7 GF%, 56% CF

    No L – K – H = 2.10 GF/60, 35% GF, 49% CF

    The worst results are without Lucic, so you can make a good argument that he’s the most important player on that line.

    The parts are never as good as the sum though and that’s important.

    Looks like the Lucic-Horton combo was they key.

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Lucic – Draisaitl – Slepyshev!

    Been waiting weeks for that, we won’t see a weak cycle from that group. Need one in the crease most of the time.

    Yeah, been wanting to see that one myself.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Why is it Lucic is with very good players and not they are with a very good player with Lucic.

    What were RNH and Eberle numbers with Pouliot before this year?

    67-93-14 career together = 2.74 GF/60, 50% GF, 52% CF

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    2010-2014 Lucic

    Krejci (3330:53 together) GF%:61.4 CF%: 55
    Lucic apart: GF:58.2 CF: 54.9
    Krejci apart: GF:44.8% CF:46.6

    Horton (1818 together) GF:62 CF:56.8
    Lucic apart: GF:59.8 CF:53.5
    Horton apart: GF: 47.1 CF: 52.5

    Iginla (1010 together) GF:66.7 CF:53.9
    Lucic apart: GF:59.2 CF:55.4
    Horton apart: GF: 52.9 CF: 48.1

    Every other forward under 400 minutes. Lucic easily the driver here.

    Will do LA next.

    You need to look at lines, not pairs for this

    You specifically need to be able run “this guy” + “this guy” but not “this guy”

    The tool below allows that.

    Just looking at pairs misses a lot of the important stuff

    https://puckalytics.com/#/SuperWOWY?startyear=2016&startmonth=9&startday=1&endyear=2017&endmonth=4&endday=30&situation=5v5&notp1=false&notp2=false&notp3=false&notp4=false&notp5=false&notp6=false&notoppp1=false&notoppp2=false&notoppp3=undefined&notoppp4=false&notoppp5=false&notoppp6=false&team=0&oppteam=0

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    2010-2014 Lucic

    Krejci (3330:53 together) GF%:61.4 CF%: 55
    Lucic apart: GF:58.2 CF: 54.9
    Krejci apart: GF:44.8% CF:46.6

    Horton (1818 together) GF:62 CF:56.8
    Lucic apart: GF:59.8 CF:53.5
    Horton apart: GF: 47.1 CF: 52.5

    Iginla (1010 together) GF:66.7 CF:53.9
    Lucic apart: GF:59.2 CF:55.4
    Horton apart: GF: 52.9 CF: 48.1

    Every other forward under 400 minutes. Lucic easily the driver here.

    Will do LA next.

    Also, the whole conversation is about driving offence, not just shot share and goal share, so including GF/60 is important.

  136. npanciroli says:

    Thanks WG I’ll take a look later when at computer again. What’s the cutoff for being a driver?

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    So I know you’ve been a proponent of having a second line “driver” since the hall trade, and since you’ve been watching Pitt.

    You say all elite teams have 2 drivers. Do you consider washington and Nash elite teams? I’ll leave out minny, Montreal, nyr, because there goaltending seems to cover off there mistakes.

    Point is all these teams are lacking more than one “elite driver” the teams that do are the ones that seem to consistently win the shot battle. I think Tmac wants four lines of strong players, like minny or Nashville.

    WSH lacks two elite drivers?

    Backstrom drives line 1 – 3.27 GF/60, 61% GF, 50% CF

    Kuznetzov drives line 2 – 3.53 GF/60, 65% GF, 51% CF

    Ovie’s never been a 5v5 driver. He’s more like P.Kane in that he’s an elite finisher and elite 5v4 scorer.

    Also,

    NSH isn’t “elite” , but not too far off.

    I had them in that category briefly and it was due to overall SV%, not from offence.

    That said Johanson-Forsberg are very good, and Fisher-WIlson are very solid 2nd line.

    Don’t have the second Forsberg to drive the 2nd line, but there is high end competence there.

    This post here shows a bunch of work I did to this end: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/02/how-good-are-nhl-teams-when-their-best.html

    You’ll see that WSH is the very best team in the NHL with and without their star.

    NSH is top 10 without Forsberg on the ice.

    Oilers are about 18th without McDavid on the ice.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    Thanks WG I’ll take a look later whenatcomputer again. What’s the cutoff for being a driver?

    North of 50% CF and 50% GF away from his main line mates is my “usual” cut off while driving either elite possession (like Bergeron) or elite scoring (like Kane or Ovi) with their usual line mates.

    That’s something we should discuss and come up with a definition.

  139. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    Thanks WG I’ll take a look later whenatcomputer again. What’s the cutoff for being a driver?

    Cool convo as well.

    I love grinding through this stuff.

  140. GXL says:

    I spoke with Travis Yost on SSE yesterday, he mentioned Boyle is a player who is fading, and I had the feeling we are looking at a 4C as opposed to the 3C Edmonton needs.

    If Boyle is more 4C than 3C, it would still be an upgrade from Caggiula. Heck, put Lander or Kharia (when he returns) in the 4C role and move up Letesu into 3C vice versa. I like Caggiula in the early part of the season when he returned but, of late, the play dies on his stick. There must be some sort of agreement that he is guaranteed ice time. Even him on the PP is in effective. Would prefer a shooter like Slepyshev instead of Caggiula.

    GXL

  141. who says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    So I know you’ve been a proponent of having a second line “driver” since the hall trade, and since you’ve been watching Pitt.

    You say all elite teams have 2 drivers. Do you consider washington and Nash elite teams? I’ll leave out minny, Montreal, nyr, because there goaltending seems to cover off there mistakes.

    Point is all these teams are lacking more than one “elite driver” the teams that do are the ones that seem to consistently win the shot battle. I think Tmac wants four lines of strong players, like minny or Nashville.

    Washington definitely has two, Nashville might not have any, at least at forward. My definition of driver might be different than yours. My drivers are guys who control the play and distribute the puck. Sort of like a point guard in basketball.
    There is no way you can look at possession numbers or scoring numbers to determine a driver. And any numbers that identify Lucic as a driver should be viewed with extreme skepticism. There is no way he skates well enough or handles the puck well enough to drive a line. This year he can’t even control the puck along the boards, which was supposed to be his strength.
    By the way the two Washington drivers are Backstrom and Kuznetzov when he’s going.

  142. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide: I would not sign Russell, no matter the other parts moving out. He doesn’t bring enough offense to be considered a two-way type at this point in his career.

    – See I would. Brendon Davidson by way of example is only 4 years younger than Davidson. I’m pulling this out of my arse, but lets say you could sign Russel for 3 x 4MM, and trade Davidson and Ebs and the 1st for a Duchene: Sign me up….

    – Russel has more offence than Davidson, his game is his game, whatever luck there is

    – If the options are sign Russel, and move Davidson as part of a package, I could live with that. Davidson next year, he signs for what, 2MM+?

  143. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    who,

    who,

    Wow I didn’t realize Kuznetsov was that elite this year. Makes sense. Thanks for that. Is he taking on elite comp?

    I really don’t think the oilers are as tough off as people are making them out to be.

    Nuge, ebs, lucic, pouliot are all having there worst career years (on offense).

    Despite this, the oilers are 11th in trhe league in gf. They don’t need to worry about posting more offense. They need to focus on the defensive side of the puck.

    Honestly I think if we find a RH hammer we will be posting washington level offense. For the next decade.

  144. Scungilli says:

    who: I can see Lucic, Eberle and maybe even Pouliot lacking separation speed but nuge has it. Not sure Benning does. Like the new lines but man they really don’t like lander do they

    To me Nuge has great edges – he can stop and turn on a dime, he’s quick, but watching him muffin shots in from distance and never trying to go around defensemen I wonder about his acceleration and top speed. Eberle is similar, not as good a skater.

    Leon has a high top speed, but is a lumbering skater so not agile. Lucic and Maroon as well, slower than Leon, but pretty fast with a head of steam straight ahead. In tight the three use their strength to protect the puck instead of agility.

    Benning to me may not be really fast but he gets around the zone quickly which I think is why he’s effective defensively and can get away from the forecheck to find a pass. In the Oiler skill comp he was blazing fast backward as well (just under Nurse’s sick time) which means he can gap and not worry about getting walked all the time.

    To me it’s key these days for defense. It’s why the size of them is coming down, they have to be able to move now.

  145. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: WSH lacks two elite drivers?

    Backstrom drives line 1 – 3.27 GF/60, 61% GF, 50% CF

    Kuznetzov drives line 2 – 3.53 GF/60, 65% GF, 51% CF

    Ovie’s never been a 5v5 driver.He’s more like P.Kane in that he’s an elite finisher and elite 5v4 scorer.

    Also,

    NSH isn’t “elite” , but not too far off.

    I had them in that category briefly and it was due to overall SV%, not from offence.

    That said Johanson-Forsberg are very good, and Fisher-WIlson are very solid 2nd line.

    Don’t have the second Forsberg to drive the 2nd line, but there is high end competence there.

    This post here shows a bunch of work I did to this end:http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/02/how-good-are-nhl-teams-when-their-best.html

    You’ll see that WSH is the very best team in the NHL with and without their star.

    NSH is top 10 without Forsberg on the ice.

    Oilers are about 18th without McDavid on the ice.

    Ok we agree on Washingtons two drivers and that Ovie makes them both better by being the best finisher in the history of the games.
    BUT, I will never understand your insistence that Kane is not an elite driver. If your numbers are telling you that then you are using the wrong numbers. Patrick Kane probably had the puck on his stick in the neutral and offensive zones more than any other Hawk and this is typical of any of their games I have watched. He is also an elite passer and puck distributor.
    I am not some Patrick Kane fan boy but this should be pretty obvious to most casual hockey fans.

  146. kinger_OIL says:

    Pouzar: You did see it. You also saw Nuge score 56 pts sawing off the best of the West on a shitty Oiler team just a couple years ago. That player has been beat out of Nuge. Some team is going to get a helluva player for 40 cents on the dollar.

    – That may be true, and I hope he turns it around, but do you think it is wise for Chia to just keep him next year and hope he turns it around? Like how confident are you that he does?

  147. BONE207 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Also, via Reid Wilkins Khaira / Nurse did not skate today for what it’s worth.

    Those 2 don’t need the bag skating that TMac might have in store for the rest of last night’s lollygaggers.

  148. who says:

    Scungilli: To me Nuge has great edges – he can stop and turn on a dime, he’s quick, but watching him muffin shots in from distance and never trying to go around defensemen I wonder about his acceleration and top speed. Eberle is similar, not as good a skater.

    Leon has a high top speed, but is a lumbering skater so not agile. Lucic and Maroon as well, slower than Leon, but pretty fast with a head of steam straight ahead. In tight the three use their strength to protect the puck instead of agility.

    Benning to me may not be really fast but he gets around the zone quickly which I think is why he’s effective defensively and can get away from the forecheck to find a pass. In the Oiler skill comp he was blazing fast backward as well (just under Nurse’s sick time) which means he can gap and not worry about getting walked all the time.

    To me it’s key these days for defense. It’s why the size of them is coming down, they have to be able to move now.

    I agree with most of what you are saying but I think nuge has a higher gear or two than Eberle. And I think Drai is considerably faster than Lucic or Maroon but he does lumber. Good chance he declines in his late twenties as he starts to lose some youthful energy. Takes a lot of effort to move that big body.

  149. PhrankLee says:

    Well the normally eventful 2nd period finally let us down this year.

    Love Nuge for his spirit. Absolute gem.

    Now is the point in the season where we need to play for shape on the cue ball, boys.

    Start sawing off, man for man, and play for Betmans the rest of the month.

    Get some clean air in March.

  150. dustrock says:

    Centre of attention:
    Nyquist almost Kassian-ed Spurgeon there. This was a two hand slash to the face rather than a one handed swing though.

    I would throw the book at him, that was difficult to watch.

    Yet Nyquist remains in the game.

    I’d suspend him for 40 games, but I don’t care for the players as much as the NHLPA does.

  151. Scungilli says:

    who: I agree with most of what you are saying but I think nuge has a higher gear or two than Eberle. And I think Drai is considerably faster than Lucic or Maroon but he does lumber. Good chance he declines in his late twenties as he starts to lose some youthful energy. Takes a lot of effort to move that big body.

    I think Leon is faster as well, thing is he’s big, but not that big. Lots of players are 215. He’s 15 pounds lighter than the other two. Just a really weird skater. Pakarinen is the same size, much lighter on his skates.

  152. Scungilli says:

    blainer: But I’m not trading Larsson. I am very happy with this player. Watched a couple of players stay away from him last night.. Loved it. I wouldn’t be to quick to go in the corner after the puck with that guy either

    In terms of overall contribution I see him as the team’s second best player. His edge is great, but his control of the D zone is approaching elite IMO. He is also moving the puck well, better all the time.

    He is also showing the offense that is in him. He’s not Doughty and won’t rush the puck a lot but he has been put in shut down roles and in his draft year was though to be in Hedman’s class. He has a good shot and if given enough bats at PP I think he’d be good – he gets them through with some heat. I think he’s been designated PK though.

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50,

    I appreciate that.

    I like to post the data so smarter people than me can look at it and improve upon my opinions.

  154. 99 now 97 says:

    No mention of Landeskog , its all M.D. I would take Landeskog in a heartbeat if the price is right.
    No..not you Carey Price,. Sakic is going to have to sell for 70 cents on the dollar , or he will be fired,
    Come on Sakic,, tough being last and the vultures circling isn’t it.. Gotta make a move Joe !!

  155. Lightgestalt says:

    verite:
    RNH is pure hockey garbage
    Chiarelli is an abject. Abpppject incompetent
    Arizona is a team of me ,Oilers. It
    Expect total collapse
    Gut this teami

    It is art. Sounds like a piece from a poetry slam or a poetry machine to me. Definitely elements of Dadaism.

  156. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who,

    There is no way you can look at possession numbers or scoring numbers to determine a driver.

    What would you use to determine it?

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    who,

    who,

    Wow I didn’t realize Kuznetsov was that elite this year. Makes sense. Thanks for that. Is he taking on elite comp?

    I really don’t think the oilers are as tough off as people are making them out to be.

    Nuge, ebs, lucic, pouliot are all having there worst career years (on offense).

    Despite this, the oilers are 11th in trhe league in gf. They don’t need to worry about posting more offense. They need to focus on the defensive side of the puck.

    Honestly I think if we find a RH hammer we will be posting washington level offense. For the next decade.

    I’m of two minds on this.

    In the piece I linked to, I showed that without McDavid on the ice the Oilers were:

    17th in GF%
    17th in GF/60
    17th in CF%
    27th in SCF% (!!) – shots from homeplate for/against

    So I don’t think they have enough offence as that’s not good enough to win in the playoffs.

    I agree that no one could have foreseen all of Lucic, RNH, Eberle, and Pouliot would be terrible this year.

    The results are the results though and that’s what we have to work with.

    I don’t know about a RH hammer, but someone needs to start scoring well 5v5 without McDavid because right now nobody is.

  158. Johnny Larue says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Given how often McLellan has run 14 and 17 together I’d have to say that no one in the org is giving him this data.

    Just saw the lines today are:

    19-97-14
    27-29-42
    36-93-44
    23-51-67

    Maybe someone slipped him the data this morning?

    Hehe.

    I actually don’t hate those lines at all.

    I’d swap 36 and 67 as 67-93-44 is 93’s most productive line this year, but I’m not sure you can get 67 from the dog house.

    51 is going to need a long stick to be on that line from Bakersfield. I would move 51 to 23 with 55 in the middle

  159. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    There is no way you can look at possession numbers or scoring numbers to determine a driver.

    What would you use to determine it?

    My eyes.
    Look I’m not disputing the numbers. I just think you are attaching way too much significance to them.
    There seems to be a lot of people on this blog who take these numbers, and your interpretation of them, as gospel. But when your interpretation doesn’t pass the eye test, and in my opinion is obviously wrong, it makes me question the value of some of your other opinions that are based on these same analytics.
    Maybe I’m nitpicking on this one topic, and maybe our interpretations of drivers is different. I dunno.

  160. npanciroli says:

    who,

    There’s so many little things that happen in hockey that stats can’t cover. Larsson is a great example of that type of player.

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Evaluating Oiler D-pairs with centers Part 2

    Part 1 used goals, Part 2 uses shots

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/02/a-look-at-how-oilers-d-pairs-have-done_12.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  162. OilClog says:

    Is it in Eberle contract that he gets top 6 no matter how awful the game or games before.

    Last nights performance deserves a benching.

  163. stevezie says:

    This Duchene situation is so fascinating because- no matter where he goes (but double especially if it’s here)- is it possible to not see the Duchene deal as an audit of the Hall deal?

    Great discussion today on how Hall looks next to MD, and I’ll play it conservative and say that they are highly comparable players and Hall’s on-ice results are at least as good. Is that fair?

    So whatever Duchene goes for, it doesn’t seem crazy to compare it to Larson (who I think we all like as a player).

    Let’s just say Sakic gets what he is asking for. Does that show we underrated Larsson’s trade value? That we underrate the centre position? That Hall’s rep is low for other reasons? That CHia is a bad negotiator?

    These last two are especially salient because not only is Hall pretty comparable to Duchene, but Colorado stacks up well to Edmonton. Both players are “losers”, and both teams are dealing from weakness (desperate for D/change in general). Of course, Hall has a better ontract than MD.

    I’m genuinely excited. And I say that very aware that I might be proven wrong about the Hall trade (sort of).

    Lowetide:
    Lander down, Pakarinen up. ALAS, Puljujarvi has his center. Good Christ LV, please grab Lander.

    Right????

    I stand firm on this: Lander will hit 400 games.

    Somewhere.

  164. digger50 says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Lucic – Draisaitl – Slepyshev!

    Been waiting weeks for that, we won’t see a weak cycle from that group. Need one in the crease most of the time.

    And a defenceman sneaking into the high slot. They have a strong cycle but no
    Output except back to point for a perimeter shot. A potential cycle output is defenceman getting to high slot and he should be open.

    Also interesting. Those hawks parked two forwards in front of the net for PP and successfully hammered in rebounds. Effective idea.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: My eyes.
    Look I’m not disputing the numbers. I just think you are attaching way too much significance to them.
    There seems to be a lot of people on this blog who take these numbers,and your interpretation of them,as gospel. But when your interpretation doesn’t pass the eye test, and in my opinion is obviously wrong,it makes me question the value of some of your other opinions that are based on these same analytics.
    Maybe I’m nitpicking on this one topic, and maybe our interpretations of drivers is different. I dunno.

    I can’t watch 1230 games a years or remember what I saw.

    Also,

    They are not “numbers”

    They are “counts”

    Count all the goals

    Count all the shots.

    Then compare.

    I can’t tell with my eyes that McDavid scores much less with Sekera/Russell than with Sekera/Benning, I just can’t.

    I don’t think any can see “what doesn’t happen” (i.e. change in goal for/against rates for lines with different d-pairs)

    Every business examines results data to try to figure out where they are good and where they can be better. All of them.

    I don’t know why the hockey business would be any different.

  166. digger50 says:

    ASkoreyko:
    digger50,

    Except Chicago themselves doesn’t have players like you are mentioning. So I don’t think it works as you are describing. Pretty sure Chicago is talking about playing their game and not cowering in fear of Gryba.

    Also Arizona is one of the worst teams in the league, so again not sure why we adjust our roster to deal with a terrible team.

    Just catching up.

    I think Hawks do have some d that will Make you pay, keep you honest at least.

    The Oil have adjusted thier roster to play tougher across the league, just not Arizona- and it is working. Thus my point about needing to be tougher, play stronger in front of thier net.

    As you know. Any team can win on a given night so even Arizona needs thier full attention.

  167. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I can’t watch 1230 games a years or remember what I saw.

    Also,

    They are not “numbers”

    They are “counts”

    Count all the goals

    Count all the shots.

    Then compare.

    I can’t tell with my eyes that McDavid scores much less with Sekera/Russell than with Sekera/Benning, I just can’t.

    I don’t think any can see “what doesn’t happen” (i.e. change in goal for/against rates for lines with different d-pairs)

    Every business examines results data to try to figure out where they are good and where they can be better.All of them.

    I don’t know why the hockey business would be any different.

    Not saying your counts are wrong. I am not disputing that at all.
    Maybe I should get you to clarify what you think makes a player a line driver cause the impression I am getting is whoever has the best possession count or scoring count is the line driver in your opinion. Do I have this right.

  168. russ99 says:

    digger50: And a defenceman sneaking into the high slot. They have a strong cycle but no
    Output except back to point for a perimeter shot. A potential cycle output is defenceman getting to high slot and he should be open.

    Also interesting. Those hawks parked two forwards in front of the net for PP and successfully hammered in rebounds. Effective idea.

    They won’t need to go back to the point so much, just rotate it to a guy in front.

    Going back to the point so much is the problem, not the solution.

    McLellan made some subtle changes to the cycle during the break, I didn’t see two guys behind the goal line very much, when it was a constant issue beforehand,

  169. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    kinger_OIL,
    “only” 4 years younger? 4 years is a lot in sports terms!

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