TORN AND FRAYED

We are starting to see some of the European invasion trickle in now, as we get more substantial scouting reports from across the pond. This is probably a good time for me to remind you about what this lists attempts to do, and why it is not meant to be a scouting list, but rather a math list filtered through scouting reports.

  • I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. Christian Roatis has my current conversation calculator here.
  • My list list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top.
  • Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a checking future. I think teams spend a lot of first-round picks on future checkers, this list tries to send them into the second round.
  • The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game. Some of the names who appear as first-round selections on other lists are not inside my top 100.
  • Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, although success over more than one season has terrific value. Prevailing  wisdom counts as well.
  • I view Bob McKenzie’s list as the draft Bible, but my list does not factor in any scouts input beyond the obvious.
  • My list does not attempt in any way to predict the draft (BMs does it very well) and does not take his list into account.
  • Craig Button’s list has high value for me, I like the fact he has the courage of his convictions. My list does not factor in Button’s list.
  • I pay attention to Red Line Report, Corey Pronman, Kirk Luedeke (also Red Line), McKeen’s and Steve Kournianos. I do not copy their rankings (this should be fairly obvious if you look at the rankings of the scouting services) and don’t actively pursue their rankings until early June, when Red Line is released—my list will be complete by that time.
  • I have found Simon Boisvert (frequent guest on Lowdown) to be an increasingly valuable resource and his input has impacted this list.
  • Mark Edwards Black Book is a brilliant reference. His release last year has been very useful for this year’s draft.
  • My list is unique, but in some cases I will reference other resources. Some of those sources may seem obscure—Brock Otten, Cody Nickolet, Adam Sherren, Simon Boisvert—but are invaluable.
  • Scott Wheeler delivers great information in this area.
  • It is very rare for me to rank a defenseman No. 1 overall. Last time? Victor Hedman, 2009.
  • My list is not designed to compete with, or copy any of the sources mentioned above. Organizations like Red Line, ISS, McKeens, Future Considerations and others employ actual scouts who observe, evaluate and project. None of their work is contained here. In fact, there are no claims here in regard to scouting—or saw him good—it is merely a labor of love. Beware of fascinations that begin in childhood.
  • This list uses math, previous draft trends (the CHL delivers enormous talent to the NHL), various pieces of anecdotal information volunteered by scouts and observers along the way, and an educated guess based on watching these things unfold since 1971.

 DRAFT TOP 93, 2017

  1. (1) RC Nolan Patrick, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Healthy again, and pushing. Complete talent.
  2. (2) L Nico Hischier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Scouts are waxing poetic. This could be close.
  3. (3) R Owen Tippett, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Size, speed, sniper. Might be best player.
  4. (4) RD Timothy Liljegren, Rogle (Swe Jr). Mobile 2-way D, complete range of skills. How much offense?
  5. (6) LD Juuso Valimaki, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Big two-way D, smart, creative, responsible.
  6. (9) L Elias Pettersson, Timra (Swe-1). High skill, rail thin. Watch for late spring scouting reports.
  7. (7) RC Nick Suzuki, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Speedy, creative, range of skills.
  8. (5) RC Gabriel Vilardi, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Creative center with size. Skating has been mentioned.
  9. (8) LC Casey Mittelstadt, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). High skill, quick hands, extra gear.
  10. (10) RC Cody Glass, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Complete skills, he is improving in-season.
  11. (11) L Eeli Tolvanen, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Plus skater, NHL shot and release.
  12. (12) LD Nicholas Hague, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Rangy, aggressive, emerging offense.
  13. (13) C Michael Rasmussem, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Big C, dominant physically, good skater. Oiler?
  14. (16) C Mason Shaw, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Small skill C, terrific skills. Should be more famous.
  15. (21) RC Robert Thomas, London Knights (OHL). Speedy forward, creative offensive player. Trending.
  16. (18) R Kailer Yamamoto, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart player, elusive, offensive. Lacks top gear.
  17. (14) RD Cale Makar, Brooks Bandits (AJHL). Fast defender with exceptional puck-moving acumen.
  18. (15) L Nikita Popugaev, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Big winger, good skater, plus shot, passer.
  19. (19) LC Lias Andersson, Linkoping (SHL). Throwback 2-way C, aggressive, quick. 5.11, 200.
  20. (22) R Klim Kostin, Balashikha (MHL). Giant W with ability to bull his way, good offense. Injured.
  21. (24) R Kole Lind, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Speedy winger with skill. Has to be on Oilers list.
  22. (20) R Martin Necas, Brno (Czech). High speed skill W, just 5.11. Can go 0-60 in a heartbeat.
  23. (17) L Kristian Vesalainen, Frolunda (SHL). Big W, skilled, strong, good shot can play L or R.
  24. (30) RC Morgan Geekie, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Tall thin C with 2-way rep and emerging offense.
  25. (32) RD Conor Timmins, SSE Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, reads plays well, excellent passer.
  26. (25) G Mike DiPietro, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). 40gp, 2.14 .926, is on a very good run.
  27. (29) R Aleksi Heponiemi, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Cerebral winger with skill, anticipation.
  28. (23) RD Cal Foote, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Huge D, awkward skater, good passer, tough.
  29. (26) RC Ivan Lodnia, Erie Otters (OHL). Small skill C, great skater. Can gain the zone effectively.
  30. (35) LD Miro Heiskanen, HIFK (Sm-Liiga). Puck-moving defender with excellent vision and speed.
  31. (27) L Matthew Strome, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Strong 2-way W, offensive potential.
  32. (28) G Jake Oettinger, Boston University (NCAA). 25gp, 1.80 .935. Fabulous numbers.
  33. (31) L Isaac Ratcliffe, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big winger, great skater, some skill.
  34. (33) LD Uro Vaakanainen, JYP (Sm-Liiga). Fast two-way blue with a good shot.
  35. (34) LC Jake Leschyshyn, Regina Pats (WHL). Quality two-way C. Just shy of 1st rd due to offense.
  36. (40) LC Ryan Poehling, St. Cloude State (NCAA). Big skill C with an offensive reputation.
  37. (36) LC Evan Barratt, USNDTP (USHL). Small finesse center with substantial skills.
  38. (38) LC Jaret-Anderson Dolan, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Small, very quick skater and plus skill.
  39. (39) RC Joni Ikonen, Frolunda (Swe SuperElite). Small skill center with good speed.
  40. (56) LC Alexei Lipanov, Dyanmo Balashikha (VHL). Simon Boisvert loves his skill.
  41. (37) R Nicholas Henry, Regina Pats (WHL). Emerging scorer making a move up the list. Not fast
  42. (41) LD Noel Hoefenmeyer, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Fairly complete defender, good D and some offense.
  43. (44) LC Morgan Frost, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, skilled, and emerging.
  44. (42) RD Henri Jokiharju, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Smooth skating Finn OD, needs defensive work.
  45. (43) R Stelio Mattheos, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Excellent skater, heavy shot.
  46. (48) L Alex Formenton, London Knights (OHL). An absolute burner, has some skill.
  47. (45) LC Joshua Norris, USNDTP (USHL). Two-way C showing good offense.
  48. (46) RD Kale Fleury, Kootenay Ice (WHL). Fascinating prospect. Haydn’s brother. Range of skills.
  49. (52) LC Shane Bowers, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Impressive two-way C, plus skill.
  50. (47) RC Alexander Chmelevski, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Impressive skills, outststanding TP game.
  51. (49) RD Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL). Two-way D, some nice boxcars.
  52. (50) R Adam Ruzicka, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Big (6.04, 202) forward who plays intelligent game.
  53. (51) L Jason Roberstson, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Big (6.02, 196), skilled. Oiler. Speed average.
  54. (53) RD Artyom Minulin, Swfit Current Broncos (WHL). Big defender with emerging skills.
  55. (57) L Ostap Safin, Sparta Praha (Cze). Big forward, good skater, has plus skills. Nice range.
  56. (60) R Lukas Elvenes, Rogle (SuperElite). Highly skilled winger, terrific hands.
  57. (54) L Mackenzie Entwistle, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Big winger, who can skate, check, some skill.
  58. (55) L Maxime Comtois, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Skilled, good size, skating average.
  59. (58) LC Marcus Davidsson, Djurgardens (SHL). Two-way center has some offense, nice range of skills.
  60. (59) RD Eemeli Rasanen, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Giant defender with skill, mobility.
  61. (61) LD Patrick Brannstrom, HV71 (SHL). Undersized skill defender, outstanding skater.
  62. (67) G Keith Petruzzeli, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). An actual giant goalie. Luedeke is on him.
  63. (62) C Jesper Boqvist, Brynas (SHL). Average size, good speed and skill.
  64. (63) L Zach Gallant, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Fast skater, intelligent player, boxcars moving.
  65. (64) RC Scott Reedy, USNDTP (USHL). Center with speed, range of skills, dynamic.
  66. (65) L Jacob Tortora, USNDTP (USHL). He is a burner and he is skilled and he is small.
  67. (66) L Grant Mismash, USNDTP (USHL). Physical winger with some skill. 16
  68. (68) L Jason Robertson, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Big winger with a good shot. Speed hurts him.
  69. (69) G Daniil Tarasov, Ufa (MHL). Tall thin goalie impressed at U18s.
  70. (70) RC Nathan Schnarr, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big center with speed, a little shy offensively.
  71. (71) RD Ian Mitchell, Spruce Grove Saints (AJHL). Undersized, mobile two-way defender.
  72. (72) LD Dylan Samberg, Hermantown High (USHS). Big (6.03, 190) mobile blue. Offense a mystery.
  73. (79) LC Jordy Bellerive, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Undersized, nifty and aggressive F with skill.
  74. (73) LD Robin Salo, Sport Vaasa (SML). Two-way defender, mature.
  75. (74) RD Josh Brook, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Mobile, dependable, emerging. Could be a find.
  76. (75) LD Cameron Crotty, Brockville Braves (CCHL). Intelligent two-way defender, great passer.
  77. (76) LC Antoine Morand, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Very small, very skilled.
  78. (77) LD David Farrance, USNDTP (USHL). Great skater, good passer, shy on boxcars for OD.
  79. (78) L Pavel Koltygin, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL). Two-way winger.
  80. (80) G Olle Eriksson Ek, Farjestads (SuperElite). Big goalie with a good track record.
  81. (81) LC Austen Keating, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Offensive center, more consistent this season.
  82. (82) RD Brady Lyle, Brampton Battalion (OHL). Good size, speed two-way defender.
  83. (83) RC Greg Meireles, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Smaller forward, speedy, responsible.
  84. (87) G Stuart Skinner, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Strong showing at TP game.
  85. (84) W Jonas Rondberg, Vaxjo (Swe Jrs). Smart offensive winger with plus skills, lacks top end finish.
  86. (85) LD Scott Walford, Victoria Royals (WHL). Mobile defender who can close gaps.
  87. (86) LD Jonathan Smart, Regina Pats (WHL). Great outlet passer, is a good defender. Trade helped.
  88. (88) L David Noel, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL). Strong winger with an excellent shot.
  89. (89) L Georgi Ivanov, Loko Yaroslavl (MHL). Skill F with some elements associated with a PF.
  90. (91) LC Joseph Garreffa, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Small speed merchant with skill.
  91. (93) RC Fabian Zetterlund, Farjestands (SuperElite). High skill, intelligent forward. Inconsistent.
  92. (NR) LC Ivan Chekhovich, Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL). Undersized skill forward.
  93. (NR) RC Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). 1998 born, too much skill to pass on.

THE OILERS IN THE 2017 DRAFT

  • First Round: No. 22 overall
  • Third Round: No. 82 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overall
  • Fifth Round: No. 130 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overall
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overall
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall

MOCK DRAFT (THIRD EDITION)

  • First Round: No. 22 overall—L Nikita Popugaev, Prince George Cougars (WHL). He is a Chiarelli-type, offering very good speed along with size (6.06, 217). He is a righty shooter and his current NHLE is 82gp, 10-14-24 (Jordan Eberle’s NHLE was 13-11-24 in his draft year, using the same metric as I am using for Popugaev). I am not sure about how the organization feels about Russians, but if he is still there at No. 22—not a certainty—I expect the Oilers will grab him.
  • Third Round: No. 82 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)—R Jonas Rondberg, Vaxjo (Swe Jrs). He is a left shooter, who plays RW but I have seen him listed as playing both sides. He is scoring well in his league, has speed and intelligence. If you are looking for guys who can skate and think with McDavid, that is a good place to start.
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall— L Samuel Bucek, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL). Big power winger who can protect the puck well and impose his will on smaller players. Good passer, an unusual item for a player of his type. Good, not great, skater.
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overallR Emil Oksanen, Espoo Blues (Fin Jrs). Skill winger who is quick and possesses a great shot. He is 6.01, 190 and is described as a great skater. He is EURO No. 112 skater, if his scouting report is close to accurate, I imagine he is going to climb in a quick hurry.
  • Fifth Round: No. 130 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)—RC Liam Hawel, Guelph Storm (OHL). Giant center (6.05, 179) who is a good skater and has spiked some offensively after being dealt to the Storm (14gp, 1-7-8). We are probably looking at a dump and chase grinder, but that fits the Oilers current template.
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overall—G Alex D’Orio, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL). Big goalie (6.02, 205) is an April 1999 so may have more room to grow than some other goalies. He has a .903SP and has solid mechanics including a good glove and quick movement. Goalies. Who knows?
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overallRC Kristian Reichel. Tall, rangy center with two-way skills, he passed through the draft a year ago. He has a plus shot, and is playing pro, so he might be a good fit for an organization that needs some fast development.
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall—LC Alexander True, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Danish center (6.04, 176) has good speed and some skill. He is not a bruiser, but possesses great balance and is impossible to move when he is planted.

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44 Responses to "TORN AND FRAYED"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Evaluating Oiler D-pairs with centers Part 2

    Part 1 used goals, Part 2 uses shots

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/02/a-look-at-how-oilers-d-pairs-have-done_12.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  2. Pescador says:

    Klefbom, Davidson, Nuge & 2018 1st for
    Tyson Barrie & Matt Dushane.
    This is not my wish, just a random thought.
    Please remember this when lighting pitchforks & sharpening torches.
    Thank you

  3. Rondo says:

    I hope Oilers don’t take Nikita Popugaev not much of a skater.

  4. stevezie says:

    Pescador,

    I assume the Avs will look to trade with the East, but if we somehow are involved I expect it will be for an MD/Barrie combo.

  5. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Unrelated to this post, but related to your points standings from the previous entry,

    Do you think Ottawa is for real? Is their playoff spot in any peril?

    To me, they don’t scream a solid club, yet somehow they’re hanging in there thus far.

  6. russ99 says:

    I can’t imagine the massive amount of assets it would cost us to acquire Barrie and Duchene, probably Drai would need to be involved.

    No thanks.

    Job 1 of this year’s draft, fill up the skill forward ranks.

    Since Vegas is probably going to be very active at NCAA signings and can make playing time promises that the Oilers either can’t or shouldn’t, I suspect Chia will be less successful this year, and we’ll need to keep our picks.

  7. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sekera – Russell only shows poor when you combine goals for and goals against.

    They’re head and shoulders above everyone when considering goals against.

    That’s why the Oilers run that pair, since their lack of goals for are offset by preventing goals, which they place a high value on, and we should have enough talent to score enough goals regardless if that pair isn’t so great at it.

    My other rebuttal, is blocks are included in your shot counts, and Russell is now second behind Hjalmarsson in the league in blocks so you’re grading him on a negative curve for shots the goalie doesn’t need to save. If we’re talking strictly defense, this is where CF% gives us contradicting information.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Braden Christoffer just ran over the San Diego goalie, Gulls PP. Eakins has the SD team humming.

  9. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Interesting item on the oilers and their SCF%. I didn’t realize they were that poor without mcdavid. And Although if you ever watch nuge and ebs together, there is no penetration into the slot ever, unless it’s off the rush. I agree though that they need to increase their 5v5 scoring.

    I think that increase will happen, and it will come from nuge, ebs, lucic, and pouliot. For whatever reason, these four have stoppped scoring, and they need to start to take some pressure off of mcdavid.

    Ive really started believing in scoring chances more than possession stats. Both are great, but I think ones better than the other imo. Those for need to start attacking the triangle.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Very Strong shift by JP, Sallinen got a post off a nifty feed from Puljujarvi. The kid is good, seems faster these recent games.

  11. Stud Muffin says:

    Popugaev is a bad skater, also plays for Prince George and has 9 points in 16 games.

  12. stush18 says:

    russ99,

    Good point.

  13. stush18 says:

    If there was a player from the draft I’d hope falls to third round, it’s Stelio matheos.

    He was a first overall pick in the bantam draft, and I think he appears to be another classic case of a forward having less boxcars because he plays on a deep junior team (Brandon)

    Also interested in Maxime comtois. Kinda reminds me of benson.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Nick Ellis had a strong period, stopping all 12 shots. I would call him the best player for Bakersfield that period, Puljujarvi had a good 20 minutes too.

  15. JDï™ says:

    Popu and Pulju – 13 feet and over 400 lbs of right-shooting winger?

    I know it moved.

  16. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: Eakins has the SD team humming.

    That’s the thing about coaching an AHL roster – it works better in the AHL.

  17. JDï™ says:

    Puljs really loaded up his stick on that shot that caught Tokarski up high.

    The Condors’ stream – it sounds like the announcers are sitting in the emergency generator room – and it’s running.

  18. Centre of attention says:

    http://recrutes.ca/

    Interesting new draft sight by a now free-lance CHL scout, used to work for different organizations and is going solo.

    Has an interesting mock draft, with the Oilers taking Nicolas Hauge in the first round at #22.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    http://recrutes.ca/

    Interesting new draft sight by a now free-lance CHL scout, used to work for different organizations and is going solo.

    Has an interesting mock draft, has us taking Hauge in the first round at #22.

    Fun site. Thanks for the link!

  20. leadfarmer says:

    How good are the guys at the top? How do they compare to years past

  21. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    How good are the guys at the top?How do they compare to years past

    NHLE at the top this year is under 40. Taylor Hall NHLE was 46, CMD was 67. Not the best way do judge it, but I think it fits.

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Unrelated to this post, but related to your points standings from the previous entry,

    Do you think Ottawa is for real?Is their playoff spot in any peril?

    To me, they don’t scream a solid club, yet somehow they’re hanging in there thus far.

    Ottawa is the new New Jersey.

    They trap with a 1 goal lead in the first and collapse in around their net at every opportunity.

    If they manage to make the playoffs I can’t see them winning a round.

    I expect them to be on the edge of a playoff spot near the end of the year.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sekera – Russell only shows poor when you combine goals for and goals against.

    They’re head and shoulders above everyone when considering goals against.

    That’s why the Oilers run that pair, since their lack of goals for are offset by preventing goals, which they place a high value on, and we should have enough talent to score enough goals regardless if that pair isn’t so great at it.

    My other rebuttal, is blocks are included in your shot counts, and Russell is now second behind Hjalmarsson in the league in blocks so you’re grading him on a negative curve for shots the goalie doesn’t need to save. If we’re talking strictly defense, this is where CF% gives us contradicting information.

    I saw the same thing and wrote this in the goals post:

    ” Not too many goals against happen when they are on the ice so that makes up for some of the lack of offence, but it looks like it doesn’t make up nearly enough. Coaches tend to default to preferring a less goals compared to more goals so maybe that’s why McLellan sees them as his best pair even though they have a net negative effect?”

    As for using CF% and not FF%, that’s simply due to FF% for trios (2 dmen and a center) isn’t available and CF% is. They’re usually fairly close.

    Also,

    They’re head and shoulders above everyone when considering goals against.

    They are the best regular pair, but Davidson/Benning have them beat in their smaller sample (87min)

    OIler Dpairs GA/60

    BENNING/DAVIDSON 0.65
    SEKERA/RUSSELL 1.33
    RUSSELL/LARSSON 1.77
    NURSE/GRYBA 2.05
    SEKERA/BENNING 2.13
    GRYBA/DAVIDSON 2.13
    NURSE/BENNING 2.13
    KLEFBOM/LARSSON 2.33


    Sekera – Russell only shows poor when you combine goals for and goals against.

    This is where we’ll disagree because hockey is what you create minus what you give up.

    Yes, they are the best at goals against, but because goals for die, their GF% suffers:

    PAIR GF%
    BENNING/DAVIDSON 84.44
    GRYBA/DAVIDSON 61.24
    NURSE/BENNING 60.77
    SEKERA/BENNING 59.00
    SEKERA/RUSSELL 57.26
    RUSSELL/LARSSON 53.99
    KLEFBOM/LARSSON 52.79
    NURSE/GRYBA 24.38

    I understand why coaches are very conservative.

    Its easier to coach against giving up the next goal than getting the next goal.

    The thing is that they are equally important though.

    Also,

    Its nice to quibble about GF% in the 50’s and some 60’s instead of 40’s and some 30’s.

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Interesting item on the oilers and their SCF%. I didn’t realize they were that poor without mcdavid. AndAlthough if you ever watch nuge and ebs together, there is no penetration into the slot ever, unless it’s off the rush. I agree though that they need to increase their 5v5 scoring.

    I think that increase will happen, and it will come from nuge, ebs, lucic, and pouliot. For whatever reason, these four have stoppped scoring, and they need to start to take some pressure off of mcdavid.

    Ive really started believing in scoring chances more than possession stats. Both are great, but I think ones better than the other imo. Those for need to start attacking the triangle.

    I was getting into SCF% more and more until I saw it wasn’t predicting future GF% as well as CF%

    I think both are useful.

    I think Georges said SCF% was correlating with wins more than CF% this year, but I’m not positive on that.

    I do know that historically it doesn’t predict future GF% as well as CF%.

    Useful information though.

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Unrelated to this post, but related to your points standings from the previous entry,

    Do you think Ottawa is for real?Is their playoff spot in any peril?

    To me, they don’t scream a solid club, yet somehow they’re hanging in there thus far.

    A few key OTT metrics and where they rank in the league:

    CF% 48.04 – 21st

    GF% 47.62 – 20th

    SCF% 49.92 – 17th

    PDO 99.66 – 18th

    Pts% .604 – 9th

    One of the things is not like the other, one of things just doesn’t belong……

  26. npanciroli says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    From a logic perspective how does scoring chances not predict goals for more than corsi. I believe you, but it makes no sense.

  27. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks!

    I hope the Computer Boys can get hot and take out the boring Sens.

  28. kinger_OIL says:

    JDï™: That’s the thing about coaching an AHL roster – it works better in the AHL.

    – This is just such an awesome line!

    – I called Eakins crap from day 1, but he was sold a bag of goods. He had so much hubris though, and thought he was god’s gift to coaching that he was alone going to turn it around.

  29. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I was getting into SCF% more and more until I saw it wasn’t predicting future GF% as well as CF%

    I think both are useful.

    I think Georges said SCF% was correlating with wins more than CF% this year, but I’m not positive on that.

    I do know that historically it doesn’t predict future GF% as well as CF%.

    Useful information though.

    I think it makes sense that teams will win more often when they dominate the slot. Especially defensively. I think teams are more than happy to allow shots from the outside. As we see with nuge, ebs and pouliot, they don’t score from there. Very few can.

    Maybe ricki bear wasn’t so far off

  30. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ottawa is the new New Jersey.

    They trap with a 1 goal lead in the first and collapse in around their net at every opportunity.

    If they manage to make the playoffs I can’t see them winning a round.

    I expect them to be on the edge of a playoff spot near the end of the year.

    They just got their number 1 goalie back and despite Condon playing well he is not as good as Anderson. I think the better question is what do they do that they become an advanced stats outlier. Its not like they’re riding luck. Other then Tampa and Florida the teams below have bigger issues then they do. And if Tampa cashes Bishop then they’re out. Boston has played 5 more games which in Bettman world is hard to catch up

  31. godot10 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think that increase will happen, and it will come from nuge, ebs, lucic, and pouliot. For whatever reason, these four have stoppped scoring, and they need to start to take some pressure off of mcdavid.

    Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Pouliot are all better rush players. On this Oilers team, only McDavid is allowed to rush the puck. Everyone else must dump and chase.

    It will be hard to make progress when Chiarelli has to turnover half the forwards.

    McLellan dumped on Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle (not by name, but it was clear who he meant) in his post practice presser. So basically they are there in the doghouse with Pouliot. Not exactly a healthy situation. It is not likely that incremental bit of effort is going to be there. Hard to run through walls for a coach who publicly shames you.

  32. Bruce Wayne says:

    npanciroli:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    From a logic perspective how does scoring chances not predict goals for more than corsi. I believe you,but it makes no sense.

    If the data isn’t reliable it won’t do a better job at predicting goals.

  33. Professor Q says:

    I know I’m a complete homer and love McDavid to no end and hope he wins the Richard Trophy and Hart Trophy, but Burns is gearing up to win both of those plus the Norris.

  34. Zelepukin says:

    Professor Q:
    I know I’m a complete homer and love McDavid to no end and hope he wins the Richard Trophy and Hart Trophy, but Burns is gearing up to win both of those plus the Norris.

    It pains me to say that I completely agree. He is on fire and has all the support to make it happen. Those two goals he scored the other night were ridiculously accurate wrister bullets from the point.

    Crosby will make a challenge for Richard and I think McD is going to have to do the unthinkable the rest of the season, especially if Drai is off his line, to stay on top. It’s amazing he still there given how targeted he is.

  35. Professor Q says:

    Also, with all the focus on Nyquist’s high stick, I’m still surprised that Anisimov never got called for his right before his goal.

  36. oscarmike says:

    kinger_OIL: – This is just such an awesome line!

    – I called Eakins crap from day 1, but he was sold a bag of goods. He had so much hubris though, and thought he was god’s gift to coaching that he was alone going to turn it around.

    Eakins was sold a bag of goods? How so when all the games are broadcast live. MacT was looking for an assistant coach for Krueger. Eakins told MacT exactly what he wanted to hear. Just like a used car saleman does.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    npanciroli:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    From a logic perspective how does scoring chances not predict goals for more than corsi. I believe you,but it makes no sense.

    Not entirely sure, but probably has to do with how SCF is recorded.

    They are shots from the “home plate” area only.

    If a shot is a foot outside the home plate area, it is not considered a SCF, while we *know* its pretty much identical to a SCF.

    When you make a sample smaller and by definition exclude similar events, your predictive ability should drop.

    This is also why most prefer Expected Goals as they do not exclude events, but weight every event.

    Even xGF doesn’t predict future goals as well as CF though (historically), but it’s close.

    Maybe it just comes down to the maxim of “those who have the puck more, will score more” and all the extra information we try to add with SCF and/or xGF just adds description of the events, but not predictability.

    Remember, every SCF is already a CF, we are just eliminating some CFs to get to a SCF number.

    Many say “those shots wouldn’t go I anyway” and that’s true, but it forgets a crucial piece of information:

    “GF% is goals for AND against. Even if a CF has a low probability to go in the net and creat a Goal For, that same CF has zero probability to go in the player’s own net and create a Goal Against.”

  38. npanciroli says:

    Thanks for entertaining my questions everyone!

  39. JDï™ says:

    kinger_OIL: god’s gift to coaching

    The doughnut ban for the media was hilarious, as was the ‘my bad’ presser. It’s sad that the hate for him trickled down to his kids though – that was inexcusable.

    And to have a former player and NHL coach preside over that mess and give the guy 100-ish games to show improvement…

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I think the disconnect is in the words I use.

    I often say/type “predicting future goals” when I should probably say “predicting future goal share (GF%)”

  41. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Not entirely sure, but probably has to do with how SCF is recorded.

    They are shots from the “home plate” area only.

    If a shot is a foot outside the home plate area, it is not considered a SCF, while we *know* its pretty much identical to a SCF.

    When you make a sample smaller and by definition exclude similar events, your predictive ability should drop.

    This is also why most prefer Expected Goals as they do not exclude events, but weight every event.

    Even xGF doesn’t predict future goals as well as CF though (historically), but it’s close.

    Maybe it just comes down to the maxim of “those who have the puck more, will score more” and all the extra information we try to add with SCF and/or xGF just adds description of the events, but not predictability.

    Remember, every SCF is already a CF, we are just eliminating some CFs to get to a SCF number.

    Many say “those shots wouldn’t go I anyway” and that’s true, but it forgets a crucial piece of information:

    “GF% is goals for AND against. Even if a CF has a low probability to go in the net and creat a Goal For, that same CF has zero probability to go in the player’s own net and create a Goal Against.”

    Doesn’t help that a shot taken from a foot outside the top centre of home plate is both closer to the net AND has a way better shooting angle than one taken from just inside the corner of it, yet the latter is considered a “scoring chance” and the former is not. Home plate was very poorly thought out from a geometric perspective from the get go, and all the heat maps of actual goals bear this out. Surprised that old concept has survived as long as it has.

  42. kinger_OIL says:

    JDï™: The doughnut ban for the media was hilarious, as was the ‘my bad’ presser. It’s sad that the hate for him trickled down to his kids though – that was inexcusable.

    And to have a former player and NHL coach preside over that mess and give the guy 100-ish games to show improvement…

    – Yes: Babcock coached Leafs to last place hockey last year (granted that is what they wanted).

    – It’s easy to make fun of Dallas, but his roster was AHL-calibre kaka to be sure…

  43. russ99 says:

    godot10: Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Pouliot are all better rush players.On this Oilers team, only McDavid is allowed to rush the puck.Everyone else must dump and chase.

    It will be hard to make progress when Chiarelli has to turnover half the forwards.

    McLellan dumped on Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle (not by name, but it was clear who he meant) in his post practice presser.So basically they are there in the doghouse with Pouliot.Not exactly a healthy situation.It is not likely that incremental bit of effort is going to be there.Hard to run through walls for a coach who publicly shames you.

    A lot of this is McLellan’s systems emphasizing the safest possible play.

    This is what is behind the chip off the glass play, the clear it our but let the other team keep it play, the two men cycling behind the net play and all the pass it along the outside and to the point play.

    It was obviously needed when he started, but now when we have a better overall system in place and players executing better as a group without the puck, he can let out the reins a bit.

    Even though we were denied the crease in the Chicago game, I saw far less of the above, so maybe adjustments were made during the bye week review, and the new lines seem poised to take advantage.

  44. JDï™ says:

    A two day break after a five day break in the schedule?

    Question: Does rust add, or multiply?

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