G58 2016-17: FLYERS AT OILERS

Chemistry. It’s the real thing. I remember Bobby Clarke driving in across the blue line, curling inside, and sending a soft back pass to an area. Split seconds later, the Riverton Rifle (Reggie Leach) would enter the zone and drill the puck so hard the goalie (usually nicknamed Suitcase or Smokey) crumbled. Years later, Gretzky to Kurri would employ a more innovative version, but the elements of the play remained the same. The chemistry brought the patented move, and the whole damned bunch rode it all the way to Stanley.

Connor McDavid has chemistry with seemingly everyone on the roster, but we await his Reggie, his Jari, his volume shooter. Hurry, Mr. Leach! Todd McLellan needs you!

  • Todd McLellan: “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”

HAMMER AND TONGS, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 2-3-0, goal differential -4
  • Oilers after 57, 2015-16: 22-29-6, goal differential -30
  • Oilers after 57, 2016-17: 30-19-8, goal differential +14

G58 a year ago was a weird one. Cam Talbot let in three goals, and then Edmonton, down a goal, pulled the goalie. Anaheim scored an EN (Cogliano of course) to make it 4-2—and 24 seconds later Benoit Pouliot scored the damned goalie they needed 30 seconds before! Bah! Corey Perry scored another EN because why not, and it was a 5-3 final. How in hell did we survive these winters?

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: Nashville, Carolina, Montreal (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Chicago, Arizona, Philadelphia (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Tampa Bay, Florida, Washington, Nashville, St. Louis (2-3-1)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-3, 11 points in 12 games
  • Overall current results: 2-3-0, 4 points in 5 games

Tonight is an important game, but I am not sure it has the same importance of the Tuesday contest. In the Arizona game, Edmonton was chasing redemption for a subpar Saturday tilt that marked the end of the five-day layoff. Oilers fans have a right to expect a solid effort this evening, but a well played loss is unlikely to draw ire from the home fans.

OILERS FORWARDS, SHOT VOLUME 5X5

  • 5X560: Connor McDavid is enjoying a fantastic season in the discipline (ranks No. 7 among forwards with 400 or more minutes). Tyler Pitlick is the only other forward over 2.00, and the list of men under 1.50 is pretty devastating. Anton Slepyshev seems to be busting a move, that is a nice development.
  • 5×4/60: Some excellent numbers here, led by Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic and Connor McDavid. Even Jordan Eberle is doing well, and Drake Caggiula is showing signs of life.
  • Shots/60: I am increasingly interested in seeing who might be the Duke Nukem (first-person shooter) for CMD, there are some roster options there. Leon has chem with 97, but he doesn’t shoot much. During the period those two are apart, Jordan Eberle and Anton Slepyshev may get a real shot. Maybe Nuge gets one too. Jesse Puljujarvi is shooting more in the AHL (2.8 shots per game) and he likely gets another chance with McDavid this or next season.

WOODMONEY BINS

  • This is sorted by percentage of TOI against elites.
  • This is the WoodMoney, and I think this is drilling down on the really good stuff. If you read Woodguy’s posts and G’s postgame runs, the totals may be familiar to you. In the coming days, when their site goes live, there will be an enormous number of questions from all ranges. That said, I think this is the best way to rank the bundles (or bins), with percentages.
  • GMoney was part of a brilliant Lunchalytics yesterday, it is here. Highly recommended, and it gives us a chance to get some foundation information about G’s philosophy on these things. G and Darcy and Michael and Zsolt are pushing a giant boulder up the hill, and we appreciate it. Cannot wait to begin to understand!
  • I remember Darcy saying the top two pairings end up playing most of the elite and middle, and that appears to be true. By the time we get to Davidson, Gryba, Nurse, the heart of the order has been tamed.
  • Notice Matt Benning is climbing past Oscar Klefbom in percentage against elites. A reflection of playing with Andrej Sekera surely, but it also goes to show that the capabilities of Benning may be closer than we think to Klefbom at this time. Klefbom and Benning are about a year apart in age, and their minutes reflect it. Our familiarity with Oscar and the newness of Benning should not cloud the quality of their performances. We need to see more track.
  • Oilers have some nice young blue. Oscar, Larsson, Benning, Davidson and Nurse is a pretty damned good cluster.

MCDAVID—MANNING

The health of CMD and two points are more important, but Manning seems to have struck a nerve with the local superstar in their last meeting. I think it important for Mr. Maroon to be hanging around in the vicinity, not to fight Manning, but to make sure McDavid doesn’t drop his gloves. If 97 is agitated enough, suspect that could happen (he is no wallflower) and that would be just about the worst outcome. Manning is a third pairing defender, McDavid is the franchise. I don’t believe in the announce your presence with authority stuff, but do want a healthy McDavid on the plane to Chicago.

FERENCE TALKS

I have not read it, decided against it. My memories of those years leads me to believe the team was ill conceived and addled in the boardroom. You could run every game from 2010 fall through 2015 spring and count the effective outlet passes without taking off your socks. Someone should write that story, about a defense who found it easier to hammer the puck square than get it to Taylor Hall on the fly.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are back with a vengeance today, beginning at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. A WoodMoney update, and a rundown of trade deadline options.
  • Anthony Mingioni, CenterIcePhilly. Flyers in town tonight, played well enough to win in Calgary last night but could not cash.
  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. We are trying a Thursday guest appearance with Bruce to change the luck. Appears to be working so far!
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Trade deadline two weeks away, how many sellers?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Can’t wait to be back in the chair!

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460 Responses to "G58 2016-17: FLYERS AT OILERS"

« Older Comments
  1. Pouzar says:

    YES!

  2. russ99 says:

    Connor!

    I see your three points Crosby. Maybe he can raise a few.

  3. Ben says:

    THE KING IN THE NORTH!

  4. Oil2Oilers says:

    I hope they send Nurse to California for conditioning than drag him on the road trip. A healthy up to speed Nurse is a decent deadline pickup.

  5. OilClog says:

    Wooooo Chia may like his team and give them more of a chance then he’s letting on.

  6. theDjdj says:

    tbh a lot of our concerns around finding a shooting RW would subside if McDavid shot more often

  7. Side says:

    God the Oilers play such boring hockey. How can a team with McDavid be so boring?

  8. russ99 says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    I hope they send Nurse to California for conditioning than drag him on the road trip. A healthy up to speed Nurse is a decent deadline pickup.

    He really does need a conditioning assignment at least.

  9. Ice Sage says:

    Side:
    God the Oilers play such boring hockey. How can a team with McDavid be so boring?

    U R hilarious

  10. spoiler says:

    russ99: He really does need a conditioning assignment at least.

    He doesn’t get to go through waivers, so I think they’ll just send him down, but the general idea isn’t a bad one.

  11. russ99 says:

    Nice win, let’s continue to roll on the road.

  12. Gerta Rauss says:

    2 more points in the bank

    6 game roadie on the horizon

    God speed boys

  13. spoiler says:

    Looks like they need to update their Gryba photo.

  14. Ice Sage says:

    Oilers in control all the way. Titrating the level of thrust like a confident, dare I say veteran, team.
    70 points in February… the mind boggles

  15. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    2 more points in the bank

    6 game roadie on the horizon

    God speed boys

    They’re back on LT’s track, but having never been this far down the road before, there’s always the danger of the losing streak.

    These last two games weren’t painted by Caravaggio, but it was key to see the offense return. The way Eberle was framing things in his little stint with Puncipe, their confidence is still a bit fragile.

  16. spoiler says:

    russ99:
    Nice win, let’s continue to roll on the road.

    Hope you get to see them win on the weekend.

  17. theDjdj says:

    Yotes 2-0 against the kings halfway through the second.

    Not a great game by the Oilers. They let the drama with Manning distract them from crushing the Flyers. Too many giveaways. But when they needed to they arose to the occasion.

    That win should put us back on your point prediction track, Lowetide.

  18. spoiler says:

    Ice Sage:
    Oilers in control all the way.Titrating the level of thrust like a confident, dare I say veteran, team.
    70 points in February… the mind boggles

    Lol… I think this is the first time in my life I have seen titration used in this manner lol. Nice metaphor.

  19. Pouzar says:

    Stauffer thinks Nurse is in at NSH “at the latest”.

  20. Pouzar says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 46s46 seconds ago
    More
    “I’m a guy who’s going to stick up for his teammates… We had our fight, it’s over & it’s done with.” @patmaroon

  21. The Hermit says:

    Side: God the Oilers play such boring hockey. How can a team with McDavid be so boring?

    Check it.

    https://youtu.be/t0hK1wyrrAU

  22. marchmentsknee says:

    treevojo: Lol

    Unless you really are marchment’s knee what the fuck do you know about being a professional hockey player.

    There is a pecking order in hockey.

    People need to know there place.

    I remember a rookie laying out Gretzky in his first game.

    How did that turn out for him?

    Seriously, why are you cussing at me? No need to have your hair standing up. If you need my resume with pro athletics unfortunately it’s in a different sport. My first name is Matt and I work for the guy who caught the first pitch of the World Series after 9-11. With some googling I’m not hard to find.

  23. Professor Q says:

    Pouzar: I did

    I really love that tune. Man, I love That Song.

  24. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    SHOTS FIRED

  25. GMB3 says:

    marchmentsknee: Seriously, why are you cussing at me? No need to have your hair standing up. If you need my resume with pro athletics unfortunately it’s in a different sport. My first name is Matt and I work for the guy who caught the first pitch of the World Series after 9-11. With some googling I’m not hard to find.

    I read this as you caught the first pitch after 9-11, and I was like there is no chance Jorge Posada is an oilers fan..

    Was really hoping you were Jorge

  26. treevojo says:

    marchmentsknee,

    Sorry

    I didn’t need to swear.

    I read your comment.

    I thought it had an arrogant tone.

  27. theDjdj says:

    marchmentsknee: Seriously, why are you cussing at me? No need to have your hair standing up. If you need my resume with pro athletics unfortunately it’s in a different sport. My first name is Matt and I work for the guy who caught the first pitch of the World Series after 9-11. With some googling I’m not hard to find.

    In Virginia?

  28. marchmentsknee says:

    treevojo,

    I guess it should be a little arrogant. Listen to pro athletes and you realize what separates them. There’s plenty of guys with good stuff in AAA.

  29. marchmentsknee says:

    theDjdj,

    georgia

  30. marchmentsknee says:

    Jorge was warming up Rocket

  31. theDjdj says:

    marchmentsknee:
    theDjdj,

    georgia

    hmm. You do video?

  32. treevojo says:

    marchmentsknee,

    Ya I think with most players I expect that.

    But I think mcdavid at a young age has a tonne of respect around the league.

    He obviously found manning disrespectful and by the reaction of his teammates it was justified.

    I think it could have easily been avoided.

    I wouldn’t even of remembered who manning was if it wasn’t for Connor.

    I doubt this was how he wanted to become part of a trivia question.

  33. marchmentsknee says:

    treevojo,

    sorry for creating mystery. i’m no one special, just a guy who lucked into a pretty cool job. i feel embarrassed for running my drunk mouth. I think you’re opinion on the Manning thing is awesome. Every fan sticks up for their team. I just liked the way Manning had to face the big bully when he knew it was coming and he knew he’d probably lose. Social media screws things up. We’d never talk to each other so arrogantly in person.

  34. Southern Oil says:

    marchmentsknee:
    theDjdj,

    georgia

    More Oil fans in Georgia! Love it. Representing Cumming, GA.

  35. Jethro Tull says:

    I live near Manning.

  36. treevojo says:

    marchmentsknee:
    treevojo,

    sorry for creating mystery. i’m no one special, just a guy who lucked into a pretty cool job. i feel embarrassed for running my drunk mouth. I think you’re opinion on the Manning thing is awesome. Every fan sticks up for there team. I just liked the way Manning had to face the big bully when he knew it was coming and he knew he’d probably lose. Social media screws things up. We’d never talk to each other so arrogantly in person.

    Haha.

    That’s alright.

    I will give you some mystery.

    My old defence partner every second year from novice to peewee was drafted first overall in the nhl.

    That’s my claim to fame.

  37. marchmentsknee says:

    Southern Oil,

    i’m in atlanta but i’ll be working near Cumming a few days per week this spring. I try to mix in some pick up hockey at the Cooler when i get a chance to if you still play.

  38. rickithebear says:

    oilers first 16gm:
    Mcdavid
    16gm 5G 19A 24P +5
    .313 gpg 1.500 ppg

    Draisaitl
    16gm 3G 5a 8P -6
    .188 gpg .500 ppg

    Last 42gm
    Mcdavid
    42gm 14G 28A 42P +13
    .333 gpg 1.000 ppg

    Draisatl
    42gm 19G 24A 43P +11
    .452 GPG 1.02 ppg

  39. OF17 says:

    That was a satisfying win. Few were great, but almost everyone was good, and it showed in the score card. Feels like the team is back on track. Perfect timing with the road trip coming up.

  40. dangilitis says:

    McDavid is +20. Maroon +15.
    I know +/- is more of a team stat, associated goal differential, etc.
    But holy shit, isn’t it nice to see an Oiler sporting +20?!

  41. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo,

    Say hi to “The Hammer” next time you speak to him. Always liked him. P.S. your English is pretty good for a Czech guy. And the women over there. Beautiful.
    😉

  42. GMB3 says:

    I just saw the video of Draisaitls interference penalty.. holy shit Manning got targeted

  43. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    Try again!

    Edit* I guess that means my English isn’t that great considering it is my first language. Lol

    I do everything on my phone so if there is mistakes it’s my phones fault.

    I heard that is a legit excuse for mistakes.

  44. Diablo says:

    Really fun game to watch tonight – lots of nice goals, and a terrific beating thrown down by Maroon.
    A few defensive miscues, but that’s to be expected when the emotions are riding high like they were tonight.

    Lucic’s timing isl off – looks slow out there. He’ll need to commit heavily to improving his fitness level over the off-season – have him do whatever Maroon did last summer. Its concerning, but I’m not going to get hysterical about it – good players can have down years – there’s just as good a chance that he rebounds next season, as there is that he continues to decline. Wait and see.

    Manning deserves some respect for staying upright and facing Maroon’s fists head on.

    Giroux seemed to be quiet tonight – barely noticed he was on the ice. Was that because of something the Oilers were doing, or is has Giroux lost a step?

  45. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo,

    yeah, I was joking, but wasn’t very funny.

  46. pocession charge says:

    treevojo: Haha.

    That’s alright.

    I will give you some mystery.

    My old defence partner every second year from novice to peewee was drafted first overall in the nhl.

    That’s my claim to fame.

    A guy in my high school graduating class was drafted first overall. That man child was Chris Phillips.

  47. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Said McLellan about Klefbom: “He hasn’t reached his ceiling yet. He’s still a very young defenceman that’s learning how and when to do things on the ice… I think he’s a tremendous player that we’re going to be happy with for many years.” (Source: Post game comments)

    I hope this puts to bed the single most irksome (at least to me) trade rumor that has been floating around this place for a few months.

  48. Gino says:

    Who is this Kris Russell guy you keep talking about.

  49. treevojo says:

    pocession charge: A guy in my high school graduating class was drafted first overall.That man child was Chris Phillips.

    Ding ding!

  50. jake70 says:

    Best moment last night for me was 97’s goal. More please. If he develops and starts to really trust his shot, boy look out.

  51. npanciroli says:

    GMB3,

    I loved that. Been dying for this team to play really nasty.

  52. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo,

    Yeah, believe it or not it was acrually pretty easy to guess. Era, not too many D go 1st, etc. I was being silly with the Hamrlik comment.

  53. JDï™ says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    I hope they send Nurse to California for conditioning than drag him on the road trip. A healthy up to speed Nurse is a decent deadline pickup.

    I hear you, but given Nurse’s athleticism and skating ability, he might not need to take his chances on a big jet plane.

  54. treevojo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    treevojo,

    Yeah, believe it or not it was acrually pretty easy to guess. Era, not too many D go 1st, etc. I was being silly with the Hamrlik comment.

    Haha.

    Ya I was thinking that as well and then you said Roman so I went and looked and I think there were 7 or 8 Dmen within a somewhat reasonable time frame.

    But given the team I cheer for I thought it was pretty easy.

  55. Pouzar says:

    jake70:
    Best moment last night for me was 97’s goal.More please. If he develops and starts toreally trust his shot, boy look out.

    Last year he made a play where he rushed on his off wing, stopped, used the d-man as a screen and ripped one home from mid circle. Was looking forward to a lot more of those but he hasn’t replicated that play since. That snipe last night was encouraging for sure.

  56. Professor Q says:

    marchmentsknee:
    treevojo,

    sorry for creating mystery. i’m no one special, just a guy who lucked into a pretty cool job. i feel embarrassed for running my drunk mouth. I think you’re opinion on the Manning thing is awesome. Every fan sticks up for their team. I just liked the way Manning had to face the big bully when he knew it was coming and he knew he’d probably lose. Social media screws things up. We’d never talk to each other so arrogantly in person.

    Yet he could have fought McDavid last game when Connor asked him and had an even easier time, facing his adversary directly. Or, well, who knows? Maybe Connor would surprise everyone.

    Instead he was “very disappointed” that McDavid called him out for his cowardice and and taunting (and potentially real malice and intentional injury).

  57. DBO says:

    treevojo,

    pocession charge,

    Fort Mac in the house! I head back next week for work.

  58. Scungilli says:

    If McDavid develops a dangerous shot, he’ll’ be unstoppable. Mwaahahahaha.

  59. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    treevojo,

    Yes, and eliminating unlikely due to region..Hamrlik, Berard etc, so looking west was pretty easy. Eliminate Jovo Cop due to being from out east and there was only one choice.

    But it would have also been cool if you played with Hamrlik. The guy always seemed a bit of a nutter. Probably some good stories. Probably some good stories regardless. haha.

    Lots of interesting people here.

  60. Pouzar says:

    DBO:
    treevojo,

    pocession charge,

    Fort Mac in the house! I head back next week for work.

    I need a career change, any mobile crane work up there?

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