HELP IS ON THE WAY!

No matter what Peter Chiarelli does at the deadline, there are going to be reinforcements arriving soon. The infirmary will have two fewer occupants in the coming days.

  • Edmonton Oilers: Coach McLellan says d-men Kris Russell & Darnell Nurse are both likely to be available to the on this road trip. Source

We will no doubt spend the next two weeks arguing about who goes where, but eight defenders for the playoffs—and Mark Fayne below—is a vast improvement over previous seasons.

SUGGESTED TOP EIGHT USAGE

  • Klefbom—Larsson
  • Sekera—Benning
  • Nurse—Russell
  • Davidson—Gryba

I very much doubt we see that set, but for me Sekera-Benning is a really good pairing despite the inexperience of Benning. I also prefer splitting up the young players and this does it well. Thoughts?

JESSE PULJUJARVI COMPARABLE UPDATE

Jesse Puljujarvi gets another game with the Bakersfield Condors tonight, and I continue to wonder about his handling. This is important stuff, and so despite the fact I have hammered on this subject at length, it is going to come back time and again until it makes sense to me.

Jesse Puljujarvi is not playing with center Anton Lander at even strength, and he is not playing heavy minutes overall. Consider the estimates for playing time compared to my comp (Mikko Rantanen) in their AHL seasons. Rantanen’s numbers come from 2015-16 San Antonio Rampage, JP from the Condors this year. Notice especially the Estimated time on ice (all disciplines):

The boxcars clearly favor Rantanen (this is in all disciplines, evens, power play, penalty kill) but the TOI estimates suggest a major skew. The gap in estimated minutes from AHL stats is jaw dropping, and I am genuinely curious (if true) about why Peter Chiarelli would choose to play his phenom so little (compared to Rantanen’s handling by the Colorado organization).

  • Peter Chiarelli on Jesse Puljujarvi: “I was down there a couple weeks ago and watched two games. He is getting a lot of touches and you could see his confidence is coming back. The defensive side of his game is getting better, and he’s made a lot of progress down there and he’s playing a lot of minutes. He’s going to be in the conversation come the deadline. He’s a dangerous player down there. He was far and above the most dangerous player I saw in both the games down there.”

Based on these comments from Mr. Chiarelli, we would have to assume one of two things:

  • Puljujarvi playing secondary minutes is exactly where he should be at this time.
  • These TOI estimates are badly out of time with reality.

The AHL time-on-ice numbers are not publicly available, making these kinds of comparisons very difficult. I have seen a few of JPs AHL games and would estimate he is in the 15-17 minute range, with Taylor Beck getting well over 20 minutes per game. If we assume Peter Chiarelli saw the same games, then the handling of JP (second-line minutes with a lesser center) must be the preferred usage at this time. Interesting to compare his deployment with what Colorado apparently did with Rantanen, but we are early days and things may change.

One thing that we should monitor, and it has nothing to do with linemates or time on ice estimates: Shooting percentage. A 12 percent success rate in the AHL makes Puljujarvi a poor comparable to Rantanen in this area. Early days, but the canvas is on the easel and the image is coming into view. We wait.

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72 Responses to "HELP IS ON THE WAY!"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Puljujarvi playing secondary minutes is exactly where he should be at this time.
    These TOI estimates are badly out of time with reality.

    c) Peter was talking out his ass as GMs are wont to do.

  2. 36 percent body fat says:

    Leave him there and call him up when the season is done.

    Keep increasing his minutes and quality of line mates .

  3. Brantford Boy says:

    “The AHL time-on-ice numbers are not publicly available, making these kinds of comparisons very difficult.”

    Bummer… I was going to suggest having a look at how Chiarelli/coaches deployed their rookie minutes for Boston’s affiliate AHL team. I do wonder if we are in uncharted territory here assuming where and how our ‘young guns’ should be playing based on years previous management. Could this be the start of a complete culture shift (ie: how Detroit handles youth, earning minutes etc.)?

    Lastly, I agree with your D pairings suggestions, but I do fear both players coming back from injury on the same pairing. I would assume that they would probably not return on the same night. In this case presumably Davidson is there to be the 6th with whom ever draws short straw.

  4. spoiler says:

    I believe estimated TOI needs a decent sample size to have any sort of accuracy. Pujo’s number is going to wobble for a while.

    I’d also bet that Rantanen’s beauty shooting percentage is skewing his own number upwards.

    And we can’t know by how much, so I tend to not give a lot of weight to these sorts of metrics if I’m critiquing something. Might just be a tempest in an imaginary teapot.

    My biggest concerns would be “is he getting a regular shift?” and “is he a regular on the powerplay?” If the answer is “yes” to both, then I’m okay with it.

    But, assuming there is some slow-playing of the Puljujarvi flush…

    Part of Management’s thinking might be the yuuugeness of this season compared to his prior seasons. Especially if the plan is to play him in the playoffs. Minimize the wear and tear while giving him enough time to learn how to get things done.

    As to linemates, Lander rips the cover off the ball in Triple A, so playing the two together might make it tough to gauge The Kärpät Kid’s development. Also would Pujo learn his own methods of success as well as he might? Maybe they want him to take charge of the line he’s on and be the bus driver.

  5. Centre of attention says:

    The title of this post is actually a pretty great song, too (if you’re into a bit of newer stuff) :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHiqGqoIGII

  6. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT: I’m not fussed with pool-partys development, given this management’s success:

    1) come to Edmonton, we give you world-class training, Learn how far you are from a NHL game, train like a pro, play against the best, and burn off a year. We will pay you that to not stay in SHL

    2) Go to the AHL, and you will get time on merit: at 18 years old, you aren’t the best player: earn it

    3) We are doing this because we have a plan, this group knows how to develop players, we are building a Cup team for many years and your a part of it: work hard, you will not be gifted anything

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Am I the only one that sees 25 min a night for a winger and says those numbers are a bunch of crap. Centers don’t play more than 21 min a night let alone wingers

  8. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Am I the only one that sees 25 min a night for a winger and says those numbers are a bunch of crap.Centers don’t play more than 21 min a night let alone wingers

    In junior, the best players (forwards) play upwards of 30 minutes a game. Although we do not know the AHL numbers, Beck is way over 20 minutes by my estimate, 25 plausible in games with multiple power plays.

  9. Scungilli says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Puljujarvi playing secondary minutes is exactly where he should be at this time.
    These TOI estimates are badly out of time with reality.

    c) Peter was talking out his ass as GMs are wont to do.

    I was going to say Dirty White Liar

  10. Scungilli says:

    spoiler: Also would Pujo learn his own methods of success as well as he might? Maybe they want him to take charge of the line he’s on and be the bus driver.

    This is what I think as well. If I remember JP likes to carry the puck, so he may not mesh with Connor as well as Nuge or Leon. Perhaps he’s the second or third play driver. Or maybe they want him to earn it.

  11. kinger_OIL says:

    Scungilli,

    – This is what I believe: they are making him earn it. I have not problem with that approach,

  12. --hudson-- says:

    Lowetide: In junior, the best players (forwards) play upwards of 30 minutes a game. Although we do not know the AHL numbers, Beck is way over 20 minutes by my estimate, 25 plausible in games with multiple power plays.

    If I understand the methodology for the time estimate, they take the number of goals the player is on the ice for (because that is all that is tracked by the AHL), divide it by the total number of goals scored, and then multiply that number by 60 (or however long the game goes into OT).

    I could see how this methodology would be biased towards players that lead their team in scoring (like Rantanen). In this way, having Beck and Lander on a different line from JP will hurt his ESTOI, all of the scoring they do will eat up minutes. On the flipside, a lower ESTOI for JP should boost his points/60

    Pretty interesting methodology, much better than nothing, and I enjoyed thinking about how it influences the player stats. Thanks for sharing the sources!

    Just looking at both teams on hockeydb and last year San Antonio scored 223 goals (about average); this year Bakersfield will be lucky to break 190 goals for (bottom third of the league). Disappointing to see.

  13. Jaxon says:

    I agree with your top 6 mix on D. With Klefbom-Larsson, Sekera-Benning, Nurse-Russell. I would still like to see a RHD move into Benning’s or Russell’s spot next year, so I hope they don’t sign Russell as I think he’ll get paid too much.

  14. Centre of attention says:

    Look at Becks numbers and tell me you wouldn’t play that guy half an hour a night if possible and you were coaching an AHL team.

    It’s up to the GM to take that option away. If Peter traded Beck for literally nothing he wouldn’t be making a mistake. He would be clearing a contract better used else where as well as providing Puljujarvi a better chance at developing.

    Instead the organization seems content paying Beck a relatively large AHL salary and eat up minutes without ever being a prospect. All the while Platzer, who can also play RW and is signed to an entry level contract, sits on the bench and watches. Sad!

    *edit* Chase is another guy who could use a couple more minutes a night. It’s easy to look at the boxcars and say “He’s not earning it” but what do you expect him to do playing the 4th line in the AHL? He was a right shot 35 goal / 85 point scorer in junior and you want to play Beck instead? Give me a break.

  15. Jaxon says:

    KHL Regular Season finishes tomorrow. Paigin’s Ak Bar team has made the playoffs so the soonest we may see him come over is in a week or so if they lose in the 1st round of the playoffs. I hope they get swept and Edmonton signs him and brings him over to get some time in the AHL asap. Can’t wait to see how he looks on North American ice. I know he hasn’t had a great year (injury and back to his old team that wasn’t using him optimally), but last season and his size and scouting reports are just too good to ignore and not be excited.

  16. wheatnoil says:

    I agree with your pairings LT, but I doubt that McLellan moves away from his Sekera – Russell preference. I suspect we’ll see a Nurse – Benning 3rd pairing.

  17. Jaxon says:

    Scungilli: This is what I think as well. If I remember JP likes to carry the puck, so he may not mesh with Connor as well as Nuge or Leon. Perhaps he’s the second or third play driver. Or maybe they want him to earn it.

    Hmmm, I thought I witnessed the opposite. I thought I saw a defensively smart, sometimes fast player (didn’t consistently keep his feet moving, but when he did he was very fast) who made a lot of quick touches and passes similar to McDavid and Pouliot. That is why I see their games meshing well and would like to see them get a chance together. Now, Pouliot’s season has been atrocious, and I wonder if he has been completely healthy all season, but I would like to see him get a few looks with McDavid. Has he earned it, or does he deserve it? Hell no. But I don’t really care about earned, or deserve at this point. If that unlocks 2 more players, then the other lines can be much stronger and would make Edmonton’s forwards possibly the best in the league.

    Pouliot / McDavid / Puljujarvi
    Maroon / Draisaitl / Slepyshev
    Lucic / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle
    Caggiula / Letestu / Kassian

  18. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Personally I have always looked askance at estimated TOI because the basic assumption is that all players are on the ice for an equivalent number of goals per 60. That is a very sweeping not to mention incorrect assumption. Agree they are better than nothing but they will Always overestimate first line minutes (more shots + higher on-ice shooting percentage + more powerplay time, all of which mean more on ice goals per 60). By making that a flat rate the difference will show up in Est.TOI instead.

    Put another way, imagine a fourth line that plays ten minutes, scores no goals and allows none. Happens a lot, right? The adjustment would suggest they didn’t play at all while other players Est TOI would collectively be inflated by a factor of 60/50.

    Which probably isn’t too much different from what Leadfarmer & Hudson already said. Suffice to say I don’t trust the derived ice time numbers are within 20% of reality.

  19. Bruce McCurdy says:

    It would be interesting to use the exact same methodology to estimate TOI in the NHL, but then to
    compare those figures to Real TOI. I’d bet anything you’d find a consistent skew with a wider range of ice time from top to bottom line players in the estimates vs the actual logs. Perhaps this has been done already.

  20. Jaxon says:

    I would like to see

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Stone
    Russell-Benning
    Nurse-Gryba

    for the final 20 games and playoffs. It would be a good combination of offence/defence and youth/experience from top to bottom. Stone isn’t an offensive D but pairing him with Sekera makes some good sense. I think there would be a good possibility of re-signing him to a decent contract in the summer, too.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    It would be interesting to use the exact same methodology to estimate TOI in the NHL, but then to
    compare those figures to Real TOI. I’d bet anything you’d find a consistent skew with a wider range of ice time from top to bottom line players in the estimates vs the actual logs. Perhaps this has been done already.

    That is what it is based on, if these sites are using the original article as their template.
    http://hockeyhistorysis.blogspot.ca/2014/06/puckerings-archive-estimating-ice-time.html

  22. Centre of attention says:

    Via Matty:

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/oilers-might-already-have-the-offensive-defenceman-they-need-oscar-klefbom

    “I concur that he can be a 40-point player. He has the vision and the shot and the legs to put himself in those offensive situations. It’s just experience for him now. Coming back from his injury, the tendency is to play conservatively, trying to not make mistakes, but now he’s doing a better job of that and the offence is coming.” – Todd McLellan

    Beautiful quote by McLellan and I agree completely. Klefbom actually scoring 40 points in a season would depend on Klefbom continuing to get these types of minutes and deployment, but all signs point to more offense than maybe we all thought.

    If he keeps getting first unit PP time with Connor, surely we can all agree 40 points is within reach? Anyone disagree? Reasoning?

    PS: Man. That contract is glorious.

  23. adamjames says:

    For the majority of the season I have been convinced the gentle minutes for JP were a product of easing his injured knee in. But we can see March from here and its still limited minutes.

    I can’t help but chuckle at the irony of us fans, who have screamed for management to slowplay rookies, now worried about having a rookie played too slow. I guess thats probably a product of the inmates running the asylum for a decade? Call it OEG PTSD if you will.

    I still firmly believe the kid is gonna be a killer. I dream of Hossa.. But if he’s 75% of Hossa its still a homerun

  24. Jaxon says:

    Centre of attention:
    Via Matty:

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/oilers-might-already-have-the-offensive-defenceman-they-need-oscar-klefbom

    “I concur that he can be a 40-point player. He has the vision and the shot and the legs to put himself in those offensive situations. It’s just experience for him now. Coming back from his injury, the tendency is to play conservatively, trying to not make mistakes, but now he’s doing a better job of that and the offence is coming.” – Todd McLellan

    Beautiful quote by McLellan and I agree completely. Klefbom actually scoring 40 points in a season would depend on Klefbom continuing to get these types of minutes and deployment, but all signs point to more offense than maybe we all thought.

    If he keeps getting first unit PP time with Connor, surely we can all agree 40 points is within reach? Anyone disagree? Reasoning?

    PS: Man. That contract is glorious.

    Dug up a comment from the summer re: Klefbom’s promising offence last season, and what it might mean this season:

    “JAXON says:
    August 12, 2016 at 10:23 am
    ***Optimist Post Trigger Warning***
    Klefbom had the 4th highest 5-on-5 primary pts per 60 in the NHL. Only behind Karlsson, Burns and Byfuglien, and the team was racked with injuries during his 30 games. He played 17 (57%) of those without McDavid, 13 (43%) without Eberle, 10 (33%) without Draisaitl, 9 (30%) without Davidson, 8 (27%) without Yakupov and 6 (20%) without Pouliot. I think he’ll also get a big PP boost p[laying with McDavid, Lucic and Eberle in front of him. Scoring at the 4th highest rate in the NHL while missing those players is no small feat. I think, if he and the Oilers stay relatively healthy this season, he will break out in a very big way.”

  25. Scungilli says:

    Jaxon: Hmmm, I thought I witnessed the opposite. I thought I saw a defensively smart, sometimes fast player (didn’t consistently keep his feet moving, but when he did he was very fast) who made a lot of quick touches and passes similar to McDavid and Pouliot. That is why I see their games meshing well and would like to see them get a chance together. Now, Pouliot’s season has been atrocious, and I wonder if he has been completely healthy all season, but I would like to see him get a few looks with McDavid. Has he earned it, or does he deserve it? Hell no. But I don’t really care about earned, or deserve at this point. If that unlocks 2 more players, then the other lines can be much stronger and would make Edmonton’s forwards possibly the best in the league.

    Pouliot / McDavid / Puljujarvi
    Maroon / Draisaitl / Slepyshev
    Lucic / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle
    Caggiula / Letestu / Kassian

    True, I was thinking more of his pre NHL play. Good hockey players can usually play with other good players. What’s up with Lucic then?

  26. Lowetide says:

    John Marino scored for Harvard tonight.

  27. Lowetide says:

    Aidan Muir has an assist tonight.

  28. Centre of attention says:

    If Klefbom actually turns out to be that beastly 25 minute a night 40 point stud during the prime of his career, he would end up being the best Oilers d-man drafted since when?

    Screw it, even just right now forget projecting into his prime years of mid-to-late 20’s. Evaluating him right now as is, Klefbom is the best Oilers D-man drafted since when? Klef’s ahead of where Petry was when he was 23 IMO so where would that put Oscar?

  29. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    John Marino scored for Harvard tonight.

    Even strength?

    It seems Fox is eating up a lot of the 5 on 4 time at Harvard so that puts Marino in a good light IMO.

  30. Mustard Tiger says:

    Centre of attention:
    The title of this post is actually a pretty great song, too (if you’re into a bit of newer stuff) :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHiqGqoIGII

    I put this song on as soon as I saw the title! Haha

  31. Centre of attention says:

    Mustard Tiger: I put this song on as soon as I saw the title! Haha

    well you know, great minds think alike and all 🙂

  32. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide:
    John Marino scored for Harvard tonight.

    PP goal too. Is Fox injured or is Marino getting 2PP time? Interesting the two freshman getting PP minutes

  33. digger50 says:

    You know the only proble with picking up Boyle?

    When I see his picture with that moustache I think of this guy:

    “My name is Indigo Montoya”
    “You killed my father”
    “Prepare to die”

    And every time Boyle getsk a shift I don’t think I’m prepared for this going through my head, over and over…

  34. Centre of attention says:

    Seattle Thunderbirds ‏@SeattleTbirds 7m7 minutes ago
    More
    BEAR! Slapper for mid point. T-Birds lead 1-0.

    Seattle Thunderbirds ‏@SeattleTbirds 3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Bear has a seven-game point streak with goal.

    Nice to see Ethan Bear doing well 🙂

  35. Centre of attention says:

    wheatnoil: PP goal too. Is Fox injured or is Marino getting 2PP time? Interesting the two freshman getting PP minutes

    Thanks for answering my question! I was wondering if it was even strength or not.

    You have to think Fox is getting the majority of PP time when healthy.

  36. Pescador says:

    Centre of attention:
    Via Matty:

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/oilers-might-already-have-the-offensive-defenceman-they-need-oscar-klefbom

    “I concur that he can be a 40-point player. He has the vision and the shot and the legs to put himself in those offensive situations. It’s just experience for him now. Coming back from his injury, the tendency is to play conservatively, trying to not make mistakes, but now he’s doing a better job of that and the offence is coming.” – Todd McLellan

    Beautiful quote by McLellan and I agree completely. Klefbom actually scoring 40 points in a season would depend on Klefbom continuing to get these types of minutes and deployment, but all signs point to more offense than maybe we all thought.

    If he keeps getting first unit PP time with Connor, surely we can all agree 40 points is within reach? Anyone disagree? Reasoning?

    PS: Man. That contract is glorious.

    Look at that goal he scored last, he has scored similar type goals this season. Jump into the play as the 3rd or 4th attacker & that finish, Lordy!! The day will come where we see that almost nightly, ala Drew Doughty. More experience & encouragement from his coaches will breed a level of confidence that isn’t quite there yet. This type of offensive rover is always paired best with a defensive minded Dman. Larrson has yet to reveal his true value as well.
    I mean he will be virtually un-defendable, opposing players will be blinded by his speed and natural beauty.

  37. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: That is what it is based on, if these sites are using the original article as their template.
    http://hockeyhistorysis.blogspot.ca/2014/06/puckerings-archive-estimating-ice-time.html

    Good stuff. A “normalizing factor” is certainly needed, do you know if one is actually applied to these AHL numbers?

  38. Pescador says:

    Jägr & Ekblad doing their best to help the Oiler cause 3-1 Panthers 7 mins left in the 2nd.
    Ducks looking like a team that just got back from a long roadie.
    I’ll be aright with 2nd in the Pacific, Sharks can have the target.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Puljuarvi scores from Lander and Fayne. At even strength. Lowetide is happy. 🙂

  40. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Good stuff. A “normalizing factor” is certainly needed, do you know if one is actually applied to these AHL numbers?

    I haven’t spoken to any of the folks involved, don’t know them to be honest. Eric Rodgers does it, I will reach out and ask him.

  41. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Good stuff. A “normalizing factor” is certainly needed, do you know if one is actually applied to these AHL numbers?

    Wonder if Stephen Burtch has a write up for it? Never did find one when I looked for it last year, though I never did the obvious and ask him directly.

  42. VanIsleOil says:

    I think we could use one more big body on RW for when the going gets tough in the playoffs.

    http://tinyurl.com/haxbn4m

    Note: As per LT’s player comparison in tonight’s
    blog, both Puljujarvi and Rantanen score tonight.

  43. Ryan says:

    Read this at your own peril. Some good info. A knife to the gut for Oilers fans…

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/rental-player-cost-nhl-trade-deadline/

  44. Chachi says:

    Ryan:
    Read this at your own peril. Some good info. A knife to the gut for Oilers fans…

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/rental-player-cost-nhl-trade-deadline/

    In what way is that a “knife to the gut” for Oilers fans? Did you mean to link to the Willis article?

  45. wheatnoil says:

    wheatnoil: Wonder if Stephen Burtch has a write up for it? Never did find one when I looked for it last year, though I never did the obvious and ask him directly.

    Link to thread: https://twitter.com/wheatnoil/status/832810881826185216

    Essentially, there’s no write up of the formula Burtch uses but he describes it as a linear regression of the on-ice goal events vs TOI. So it’s not just straight goal share but I don’t have the stat skills to describe what he means beyond that. He states an R of 0.8 and that the larger the sample the better, probably a half season+ being more accurate.

    So it’s still early days for JP’s numbers but every passing game should get us closer.

  46. Professor Q says:

    I thought that Puljüjarvi has been getting Top-Line minutes the past few games, as far as I saw?

    He should be increasing those now. Maybe they just wanted an adjustment period. I know Fleming isn’t popular, and I agree, but I don’t think he’s being Eakins-On-Yakupov on Puljüjarvi.

  47. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention:
    Seattle Thunderbirds ‏@SeattleTbirds7m7 minutes ago
    MoreBEAR! Slapper for mid point. T-Birds lead 1-0.

    Seattle Thunderbirds ‏@SeattleTbirds3m3 minutes ago
    MoreBear has a seven-game point streak with goal.

    Nice to see Ethan Bear doing well

    He definitely doesn’t get a lot of deserved respect outside of us here Oilers fans (and Seattle fans, I suppose).

  48. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention:
    If Klefbom actually turns out to be that beastly 25 minute a night 40 point stud during the prime of his career, he would end up being the best Oilers d-man drafted since when?

    Screw it, even just right now forget projecting into his prime years of mid-to-late 20’s. Evaluating him right now as is, Klefbom is the best Oilers D-man drafted since when? Klef’s ahead of where Petry was when he was 23 IMO so where would that put Oscar?

    Maybe he becomes Burns at 28?

  49. flyfish1168 says:

    Hi LT

    Just wondering how many shifts JP is getting? Some players tend to take much shorter shifts then their linemates. I tend to always be 1st off when I played. By the time the game was over it lead to sometimes close to 2 minutes difference TOI

  50. Centre of attention says:

    Anaheim loss tonight is just beautiful.

    Gives us a game in hand and for now, a slight bit of breathing room from being completely passed. We also have the opportunity to gain sole possession of 2nd tomorrow night.

    Man is it just me or is the Pacfic division a whole bunch of “meh” aside from the Sharks? Even the Sharks are not invincible, considering our last 4-1 thumping of them dastardly sea creatures.

  51. Centre of attention says:

    Professor Q: Maybe he becomes Burns at 28?

    I think we are going a bit far there. I’m talking a 40 point ceiling (if given top unit time consistently) , give or take a few points. Plus the solid defensive game we’ve come to love from Klefbom. Starting from the beginning he has always seemed capable in his own zone despite the odd rookie gaffe’. Just a lovely complete player IMO.

    Burns is more in the pure-offense category and Burns does have his defensive flaws. Most statistical models put him in the “fun” category, meaning lots of shots for but plenty against as well.

  52. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Centre of attention,

    Pacific is meh. You are right. Sharks are better than “meh.” The “Thumping” was a game we were outplayed by a lot and Talbot stole one for us.

  53. GMB3 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Centre of attention,

    Pacific is meh. You are right. Sharks are better than “meh.” The “Thumping” was a game we were outplayed by a lot and Talbot stole one for us.

    Yeah I didn’t see that game as a thumping either.

  54. Revolved says:

    This was likely already mentioned, but Filip Berglund put up two assists in 7 minutes against the SHL leading Växjö Lakers a couple nights ago. The three games previous he was over 15 minutes TOI, so I would say he is becoming more and more relied upon. A very good sign. I believe he is now 39-0-9 this season. What was Klef doing at that age?

  55. GMB3 says:

    Revolved:
    This was likely already mentioned, but Filip Berglund put up two assists in 7 minutes against the SHL leading Växjö Lakers a couple nights ago. The three games previous he was over 15 minutes TOI, so I would say he is becoming more and more relied upon. A very good sign. I believe he is now 39-0-9 this season. What was Klef doing at that age?

    2 goals in 33 games for Farjestad of the SEL I believe, according to hockeydb

  56. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    GMB3: Yeah I didn’t see that game as a thumping either.

    I saw no thumping either, but it may have mentally broke the Sharks. Since that game they are 3-1-3, with losses against Arizona, Buffalo and Philly.

    They have a back to back against the Dogs and Bruins this weekend and then hit their 5 day. After that they have a very busy March. Play Dallas 3 times, Minnesota twice, Nashville twice, and the Rangers and Capitals once each. They also have 3 back to backs from the 20th to 31st, two of which are on the road.

    The Sharks are good but they have been wobbly lately and their schedule isn’t friendly after this weekend. Man if the Oilers could make some hay on this road trip they’d be in territory that hasn’t been seen in 30 years.

  57. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Also don’t know if anyone mentioned it already this is a pretty decent interview article with Reinhart.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/future-watch-big-cat-breaking-through/c-286802976

    Sounds like he had to do a bit of soul-searching and back rehab earlier this year after his showing in the Oilers training camp.

  58. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention: I think we are going a bit far there. I’m talking a 40 point ceiling (if given top unit time consistently) , give or take a few points. Plus the solid defensive game we’ve come to love from Klefbom. Starting from the beginning he has always seemed capable in his own zone despite the odd rookie gaffe’. Just a lovely complete player IMO.

    Burns is more in the pure-offense category and Burns does have his defensive flaws. Most statistical models put him in the “fun” category, meaning lots of shots for but plenty against as well.

    Yes, but he wasn’t like that before. He was more defensive, then evolved.

  59. Revolved says:

    GMB3,

    I do not know who you are refering to on Färjestad, but the Oilers draft pick Filip Berglund plays for Skellefteå.

  60. russ99 says:

    I prefer one puck mover and one defensive defender on each pairing:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Russell
    Nurse-Benning

    And until Nurse is healthy and Davidson trade:
    Davidson-Gryba

    You don’t want to use Sekera as the defensive guy in his pairing, it limits him going forward, and he’s not the best behind the net and in the crease as we saw the last few games.

    I get why people want Benning to get the push, he’s been really good when we have the puck, but we need to be patient until he has a more complete skill set, same goes for Nurse, but we were seeing signs of that before he was hurt,

  61. Ryan says:

    Chachi: In what way is that a “knife to the gut” for Oilers fans? Did you mean to link to the Willis article?

    I was referring to Willis listing off the poor returns on previous Oilers traded at the deadline.

    “The principal return on James Reimer was a fourth-round pick, while current Vezina candidate Devan Dubnyk originally landed in Minnesota as a rental in exchange for a third-round selection.”

    “Chris Stewart as well cost a second-rounder in 2015. A year earlier, the superior Ales Hemsky commanded a return of third- and fifth-round picks. But Stewart crashes and bangs, while Hemsky plays a finesse game.”

  62. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Revolved:
    GMB3,

    I do not know who you are refering to on Färjestad, but the Oilers draft pick Filip Berglund plays for Skellefteå.

    Klefbom. You asked. He answered.

  63. theres oil in virginia says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Also don’t know if anyone mentioned it already this is a pretty decent interview article with Reinhart.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/future-watch-big-cat-breaking-through/c-286802976

    Sounds like he had to do a bit of soul-searching and back rehab earlier this year after his showing in the Oilers training camp.

    Thanks for posting that link. I think there are people who want Reinhart to fail, because if he doesn’t, then they are proven wrong. And that’s a terrible attitude to take, on many different levels.

    I like what Georges said here some weeks back about a different issue, “I’ve got plenty of room”, meaning he hasn’t painted himself into a corner.

    That’s why I don’t make predictions on much of anything, such as the NCAA “March Madness”, or the number of points I think the Oilers will get this year, etc. I find myself more concerned about being right than anything else.

  64. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Or more succinctly, I find it troubling to look back on the past Oilers trades since they generally reflect such poor asset management.

    Trade every asset at its nadir.

    But let’s “hit the reset button” as hockey players like to say.

  65. Jethro Tull says:

    Ryan: I was referring to Willis listing off the poor returns on previous Oilers traded at the deadline.

    “The principal return on James Reimer was a fourth-round pick, while current Vezina candidate Devan Dubnyk originally landed in Minnesota as a rental in exchange for a third-round selection.”

    “Chris Stewart as well cost a second-rounder in 2015. A year earlier, the superior Ales Hemsky commanded a return of third- and fifth-round picks. But Stewart crashes and bangs, while Hemsky plays a finesse game.”

    That article is the least ‘Jonathon Willis’ like article I’ve read. I usually enjoy his articles, but this one reads like a British tabloid one. One sentence paragraphs and half truths.

    Dubnyk was sent to NSH for Hendricks +, not Minnesota. At the time, he wasn’t playing well despite having good underlying numbers. He had admitted himself that it wasn’t working as well as he’d hoped in EDM.

    Willis’ article also ahows he does not understand the dynamics of a barter system culture that is the NHL. He speaks as if there is a price list to go off. No. There is previous history of what has been paid for similar players, but GMs have their own agendas. Like taking on anchor contracts to manipulate tje cap and so forth, so the motivations for a trade aren’t just about the roster.

    EDM’s trades in the last few years do leave a lot to be desired, but he omits the good ones like the Perron trades (both).

    This article is like he was late for deadline and asked Spector if ge had a spare ready to go.

  66. Revolved says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Thank you. I am an idiot, but that doesn’t matter if we have a right shooting Klefbom in the system!

  67. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: That article is the least ‘Jonathon Willis’ like article I’ve read. I usually enjoy his articles, but this one reads like a British tabloid one. One sentence paragraphs and half truths.

    Dubnyk was sent to NSH for Hendricks +, not Minnesota. At the time, he wasn’t playing well despite having good underlying numbers. He had admitted himself that it wasn’t working as well as he’d hoped in EDM.

    Willis’ article also ahows he does not understand the dynamics of a barter system culture that is the NHL. He speaks as if there is a price list to go off. No. There is previous history of what has been paid for similar players, but GMs have their own agendas. Like taking on anchor contracts to manipulate tje cap and so forth, so the motivations for a trade aren’t just about the roster.

    EDM’s trades in the last few years do leave a lot to be desired, but he omits the good ones like the Perron trades (both).

    This article is like he was late for deadline and asked Spector if ge had a spare ready to go.

    I agree with every word of this post.

  68. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ryan: I was referring to Willis listing off the poor returns on previous Oilers traded at the deadline.

    “The principal return on James Reimer was a fourth-round pick, while current Vezina candidate Devan Dubnyk originally landed in Minnesota as a rental in exchange for a third-round selection.

    Jethro Tull:

    Dubnyk was sent to NSH for Hendricks +, not Minnesota. At the time, he wasn’t playing well despite having good underlying numbers. He had admitted himself that it wasn’t working as well as he’d hoped in EDM.

    I think you are misreading what Young Willis wrote. He said what Minnesota paid for Dubnyk, which is a fact. What he did NOT say is that Minny got Dubnyk directly from Edmonton. They got him from Arizona for a third round pick a year after Edmonton dealt DD to Nashville. Read that paragraph again and tell me what he said was wrong, or that it somehow slagged the Oilers. .

  69. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I think you are misreading what Young Willis wrote. He said what Minnesota paid for Dubnyk, which is a fact. What he did NOT say is that Minny got Dubnyk directly from Edmonton. They got him from Arizona for a third round pick a year after Edmonton dealt DD to Nashville. Read that paragraph again and tell me what he said was wrong, or that it somehow slagged the Oilers. .

    The whole article was set up to highlight the poor returns EDM has received compared to other teams. I did not say he slagged EDM per se, but the underlying tone is one of criticism, which I’m ok with. It’s a little hypocritical to bring me to task about what was written and what wasn’t when you have been inaccurate as well. I didn’t say he was wrong, or that he slagged the Oilers, if we’re playing that game. What i did say is that he is selective with the facts he presents.

    And Bruce, you valiant old warhorse, you know as well as i do that omission is not proof. He insinuated and left himself easily defensible, an old tabloid trick. And once again, i draw your attention to the omission of other deals such as the Perron one. Wax on should always followed by wax off.

    You seem to have taken a little mild criticism a little personally. My point is that this really didn’t read like one of Willis’ articles.

    It’s ok to criticize and in turn be critiqued without having to rev up the outrage bus.

  70. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    And he highlights the “principal return” for Reimer, ergo, the principal return for Dubnyk must be presented, not three trades down the line.

  71. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Jethro Tull: The whole article was set up to highlight the poor returns EDM has received compared to other teams. I did not say he slagged EDM per se, but the underlying tone is one of criticism, which I’m ok with.It’s a little hypocritical to bring me to task about what was written and what wasn’t when you have been inaccurate as well. I didn’t say he was wrong, or that he slagged the Oilers, if we’re playing that game. What i did say is that he is selective with the facts he presents.

    And Bruce, you valiant old warhorse, you know as well as i do that omission is not proof. He insinuated and left himself easily defensible, an old tabloid trick. And once again, i draw your attention to the omission of other deals such as the Perron one. Wax on should always followed by wax off.

    You seem to have taken a little mild criticism a little personally. My point is that this really didn’t read like one of Willis’ articles.

    It’s ok to criticize and in turn be critiqued without having to rev up the outrage bus.

    Interesting.

    I read the article as information about what prices may be at the deadline.

    If anything I thought about us getting Hendricks who has been a warrior vs. a draft pick, not that either is fair compensation for what Dubnyk has achieved but that is another kettle of fish.

    I think “criticism” of the oilers is in the sensitivity of the reader.

  72. marchmentsknee says:

    I sent this to my edmontonian bro at the start of the period.

    “Fans will complain about the mcblender but watch what he does. The Oilers sucked the first two periods against a Stanley cup favorite he’s rotating his top 6 instead of 3 or 4 lines.

    We can’t help it that Lucic, RNH and eberle suck this year. They’re still top 6. You start your dudes when the ace is on the hill so you don’t screw him over. Talbot has stood on his head. If theyre going to lose, the coach has to play the accountable players”.

    I dont enjoy defending 3 of those names. This team is close to special.

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