LOOSE CHANGE

If your team doesn’t win a game that includes Kris Russell and Eric Gryba scoring, get another hobby. In truth, the Oilers played a solid even-strength game for two periods and then the wheels came off and fatigue set in during the third period. Alas, this team is made or sterner stuff than the last batch, and your Edmonton Oilers can overcome well enough to win. A big one, too. Now, how many defensemen are healthy? Bueller? Bueller?

MIAMI VICE GRIP, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 5-4-0, goal differential -1
  • Oilers after 61, 2015-16: 22-33-6, goal differential -39
  • Oilers after 61, 2016-17: 33-20-8, goal differential +17
The Oilers are now officially a likely playoff team. We can worry and fret, but the March schedule should be much easier, lord willing and six defensemen available.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: Nashville, Carolina, Montreal (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Chicago, Arizona, Philadelphia (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Tampa Bay, Florida, Washington, Nashville, St. Louis (Expected: 2-3-1) (Actual: 2-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-3, 11 points in 12 games
  • Overall current results: 5-4-0, 10 points in 9 games

We are basically at a point where we can say the Oilers delivered at expected levels, but with three games remaining it would be nice to grab another win on this suddenly successful road trip. Damn this Oilers team reminds me of very little about their predecessors.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Davidson—Gryba went 3-2 in 9:28, Davidson—Benning went 12-3 in 4:28—it was that kind of night.  Davidson also spent time with Russell (2-5) and Klefbom (0-0). I felt this pairing had some trouble with Old Man Jagr (Davidson went 6-4 in 5:55, Benning went 9-11 in 8:33) but they battled hard and the numbers showed well. Benning went 15-6 against Bjugjstad—Sgarbossa—Marchessault, Davidson was 5-1. Effective together and apart, depth is a wonderful thing.
  • Klefbom—Benning went 13-16 in 17 minutes together, Oscar also 5-6 with Gryba and 1-4 with Russell. Oscar is really starting to grow offensively, needs to tighten the defense a little more, but we are young, we are heartache to heartache. Benning is too good to be true. I loved his effort on Mount Jagr.
  • Sekera—Russell went 4-8 in 6:04, and then Russell went 4-2 with Gryba, 3-4 with Benning, 2-5 with Davidson and 1-4 with Klefbom.
  • Jaromir Jagr went 16-8 against Klefbom,  11-9 against Benning, 6-4 against Russell, 4-6 against Davidson, 5-7 against Gryba, 0-0 against Sekera. Interesting.
  • Cam Talbot is a key, key element to this team’s success and stopped 31 of 34, .912.
  • Numbers via NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick and HockeyStats.ca.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Hendricks—Khaira—Pakarinen went 6-5 in 9:27 and fought hard in their part of the game. Went 3-1 against Huberdeau—Barkov—Jagr and that is haha funny. Went 3-3 in five minutes against Thornton—MacKenzie—Sceviour. I really like Khaira, you can see his speed and strength being an effective skill set next season, although I always worry at this time of year when players are inserted with lots of scouts in town.
  • Lucic—Nuge—Eberle went 14-15 in 13:40 together, these men played a lot last night. Ten shots in total for the trio, a goal by the center and assists for the wings, 53 percent in the dot. Nice. Lucic had some snarl, Nuge looked a little desperate and Jordan Eberle keeps going to his patented move that ends up with the puck in the corner. Trio went 2-5 against Reilly Smith—Trochek—Jokinen in five minutes, but dominated Bjugjstad—Sgarbossa—Marchessault 8-4. Happy for Nuge that he crammed that puck in the net, need more of that down the stretch from this group.
  • Caggiula—Letestu—Kassian went 8-9 in 9:30 and if you tell me you saw a difference between this line and the Khaira group I will call you a liar. They changed the Gryba goal (I reported it above) to a Kassian marker after the game, so this line did in fact score, along with an assist for Letestu. I like Caggiula’s speed.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl authored the winning goal, a gorgeous piece of hockey offense that showed two guys with great chemistry. I don’t think they can break these two up, honestly. It’s like of like Mick and Keith at this point, maybe around Between the Buttons. Now they need Mick Taylor to make this thing fly high to the sky.
  • Connor McDavid has 68 points. Leon Draisaitl (53) has posted 15 fewer points, but ranks second in team scoring. Jordan Eberle (36) has 17 fewer points than Leon. No real reason I am posting, it just seems weird.

If the Islanders are looking for a scoring winger for John Tavares, Eberle makes sense. If they are looking for some help down the middle (NYI depth chart is Tavares, Brock Nelson, Casey Cizikas, Alan Quine) then Nuge would be a grand addition. Both men make $6 million large per season, so it is one or the other.

Among Islanders who I imagine the Oilers would have interest in: C-R Ryan Strome (56, 11-14-25), RD Johnny Boychuk (55, 6-15-21, 288 shot attempts) and I will throw Josh Ho-Sang and Michael Dal Colle from the minors in just for fun.

CURRENT STANDINGS

  • We have been spending this entire year looking at the point totals and the ranking, but it is finally time to scan the GP aisle and frame that against the points total.
  • Calgary has 22 games left, potentially 44 points. The Flames are 10 points behind Edmonton. At this point, catching the Oilers is damned difficult. Let’s say they go 12-7-3 in their final 22 games. Calgary would finish 42-33-7, 91 points. That would represent a strong finish for them.
  • For Edmonton to beat Calgary for No. 3 in the Pacific Division, they need to go something 8-10-3 over their final 21 games. That would put the Oilers at 41-30-11, 93 points.
  • I like their chances.
  • I think the most impressive month of the season is a close race between October and January (above). However, February might be the grittiest, love the effort and endurance of this hockey club.

MOREBERLE

  • Bergevin était là pour Eberle (Bergevin was there for Eberle) Source

So that is two teams scouting Eberle. I have heard Eberle linked to the Islanders from time to time (Strome, Hamonic, Boychuk), but this Habs thought is new to me. Montreal has zero cap space, so it would have to be one for one, leaving Tomas Plekanec, maybe Andrew Shaw because faceoffs and agitation. Not a lot that fits, to be honest. Alex Galchenyuk has appeal, doubt he would be available for Eberle. Montreal is going for it, so whatever they give up would not be considered a key piece (I don’t think).

Honestly? I could see Brandon Davidson being of great interest, and Jujhar Khaira was in the game last night and again that makes me think there could be some showcasing going on. If it is one of those men, R Michael McCarron could be in play. He is a giant RW and a big-time prospect for the Habs, but he isn’t scoring in pro. The Oilers might like his size.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are back! With an All-Star cast! 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. What (if anything) is wrong with the Nuge? Plus, Oilers last night.
  • Josh Lewenberg, TSN. Raptors may not be done, as trade deadline approaches.
  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Bruce gets to talk about an Oilers win AND seven new planets! Lordy.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Trade deadline, Shattenkirk, Islanders-Habs connection to Oilers/Eberle.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

TODD MCLELLAN ON SEKERA

  • “I think it’s more of a soft-tissue, muscle thing than anything else, but we’ll see how he is tomorrow.”

Light more candles. I am running out! Hopefully good news on Larsson for Friday.

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235 Responses to "LOOSE CHANGE"

« Older Comments
  1. Georges says:

    stevezie,

    Stevezie:

    Here’s the argument I’m making with the on/off the ice numbers for Hall and Larsson I posted the other night. Again, I’m interpreting the results so far.

    The Devils traded Larsson minutes for Hall minutes. They also traded Larsson off the ice minutes for Hall off the ice minutes.

    They won the first trade by a little bit but badly lost the second trade.

    The Devils weren’t good enough to trade Larsson for Hall. Larsson was probably their #1D, and, if not, definitely their #2D. They didn’t have enough defensive talent and experience to make up for the lost Larsson minutes. Everyone is playing up in the order. We used to do that when we didn’t have enough skilled and experienced defensemen who could play minutes.

    Another team that had the depth to lose a top defenseman would have done well with Hall. The Devils weren’t that team.

    Given the results so far, they got the better player and ended up with a worse team.

    Meanwhile, Larsson lets us shift all of our other defensemen down in the lineup. Sekera is no longer our #1D. He’s one of 4 defensemen taking around 20 minutes a night, along with Larsson, Klefbom and Russell. And we get to bring Benning and Nurse and Davidson along. This is how a defenseman like Larsson makes the rest of the team better: by keeping it close while he’s on the ice and letting the rest of the team play in spots where they’re more likely to succeed

    CMD more than replaces Hall at the top of the lineup. And his on-ice results are better with Larsson on the ice. And the rest of the lineup does just enough to keep it close because we have more talent and depth on defense with Larsson on our team.

    In the seasons where Hall played the other team to a standstill and the rest of our team lost horrendously, the Oilers lacked balance in the results throughout the lineup. By trading for Larsson, we didn’t get closer to balance but we got better. The gap between the on-ice results for our best player and the rest of the team is still big. But the results have improved in both situations.

    So, given the results so far, we got the “worse” player and ended up with the better team. (Quoted because I’m not yet sure how to trade off forward minutes for defenseman minutes. On 5v5 goal differential with the player on the ice, Larsson is a “better” player.)

    This won’t be true for other teams (teams with defensive depth), but I think between Hall and Larsson, Larsson is the more valuable player for both the Oilers and the Devils.

    That’s why I think the Oilers won the trade.

  2. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Chachi: I like them both. I also believe Lucic stores his ring in one of his ears a la Patrick Roy.

    Yes, all three are valid, as is to say that the current debate around Lucic is two rings short of a circus, but only your post incorporated the poster’s handle into the equation.

    So I stand by my kudos tl you.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    You’re pretty awesome.

    When I was waiting to go on LT’s show today, Bruce was in studio and he and LT were discussing a game (maybe a series?) that happened 50 years ago.

    So much fun.

  4. Chachi says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Yes, all three are valid, as is to say that the current debate around Lucic is two rings short of a circus, but only your post incorporated the poster’s handle into the equation.

    So I stand by my kudos tl you.

    I will take it and run.

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce Wayne: Lucic looks bad compared to everyone on the roster.It is like having Eric Gryba play the wing.

    ***WARNING*** DECEASED EQUINE FLAGELLATION DETECTED ***WARNING, WILL ROBINSON***

    *Much flailing of dryer vent tube arms*

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    classict:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    No definitely not. The money would have to be more than the player reasonably expects they’ll get as a UFA.

    Russell waited all summer to get 1yr/3mil. In that position if you’re offered 4/4 (and Edmonton made a lower one or not at all) is it worth waiting to find out if that will happen again.

    Ah, got it.

    I still don’t think he signs without expansion protection.

    I could be wrong.

  7. Louis Levasseur says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    That is an awesome history lesson. I consider myself a pretty good Oiler historian, but you take it to a whole new level. I love references to those “one hit wonders” of yesterday.

    Thanks for that!

  8. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Memo to all: we (meaning “I”) decided late in last night’s game thread that since yesterday’s Nuge bashing resulted in a goal for Nugey, we would do the same for Lucic and Eberle in the hopes that we may have a similar effect.

    Please get with the program. Thank you.

    😉

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: It might be my fault. I gave Matt Benning a 6 star rating on Yelp.

    I gave him 7, but he gave away my soup to the table next to me.

    Last bowl too.

    Bastard.

  10. Truth says:

    digger50: Yeaaa, a little love for Mr Grubs!Lol

    Gryba is one of the hardest hitters in the league, finishes every check, and is a difference
    maker in slowing down those fast teams and standing up to the tough ones.

    He owns the corners and front of the net. He can fill in as needed, and doesn’t mind a night in the press box.

    According to woodmoney stats, he and Nurse were pretty effective. Players know, it’s not fun getting your face plastered into the glass, and having one of those guys on your team feels great.

    I don’t have him down as MVP. But I love what he adds to the overall team game.

    For a 1m contract, I keep this guy.

    I keep Gryba over Russell any day. Even at the same contract amount.

    Also, what is up with the Oilers’ D gap control the last two games? Can’t help but notice they give the opposition free ice from center all the way to below the top of the circles. This is very atypical of the rest of the season.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah I really like GSAA for goalie metric it really helps to delineate who is a mediocre starter on a good team *cough Jones cough* from a good starter on a bad team, when healthy its Smith but he’s about healthy as Letang.There’s some wide variances in some starters year to year but some like Ward are consistenly poor

    Agreed.

    The whole “but he plays on a shit team, that’s why his SV% is bad” can finally be quantified.

    I don’t think corsica’s xG metric is perfect, but it’s better than straight shots for sure.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OilSafety:
    I always envisioned you watching hockey on your puter, you know…. the wooden one.

    https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/3f/bc/73/3fbc738d3e65b3804dd799e12e76809d.jpg

    I save that one for playoffs.

    It’s pretty dusty.

  13. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I gave him 7, but he gave away my soup to the table next to me.

    Last bowl too.

    Bastard.

    Overrated!

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    stevezie,

    Stevezie:

    Here’s the argument I’m making with the on/off the ice numbers for Hall and Larsson I posted the other night. Again, I’m interpreting the results so far.

    The Devils traded Larsson minutes for Hall minutes. They also traded Larsson off the ice minutes for Hall off the ice minutes.

    They won the first trade by a little bit but badly lost the second trade.

    The Devils weren’t good enough to trade Larsson for Hall. Larsson was probably their #1D, and, if not, definitely their #2D. They didn’t have enough defensive talent and experience to make up for the lost Larsson minutes. Everyone is playing up in the order. We used to do that when we didn’t have enough skilled and experienced defensemen who could play minutes.

    Another team that had the depth to lose a top defenseman would have done well with Hall. The Devils weren’t that team.

    Given the results so far, they got the better player and ended up with a worse team.

    Meanwhile, Larsson lets us shift all of our other defensemen down in the lineup. Sekera is no longer our #1D. He’s one of 4 defensemen taking around 20 minutes a night, along with Larsson, Klefbom and Russell. And we get to bring Benning and Nurse and Davidson along. This is how a defenseman like Larsson makes the rest of the team better: by keeping it close while he’s on the ice and letting the rest of the team play in spots where they’re more likely to succeed

    CMD more than replaces Hall at the top of the lineup. And his on-ice results are better with Larsson on the ice. And the rest of the lineup does just enough to keep it close because we have more talent and depth on defense with Larsson on our team.

    In the seasons where Hall played the other team to a standstill and the rest of our team lost horrendously, the Oilers lacked balance in the results throughout the lineup. By trading for Larsson, we didn’t get closer to balance but we got better. The gap between the on-ice results for our best player and the rest of the team is still big. But the results have improved in both situations.

    So, given the results so far, we got the “worse” player and ended up with the better team. (Quoted because I’m not yet sure how to trade off forward minutes for defenseman minutes. On 5v5 goal differential with the player on the ice, Larsson is a “better” player.)

    This won’t be true for other teams (teams with defensive depth), but I think between Hall and Larsson, Larsson is the more valuable player for both the Oilers and the Devils.

    That’s why I think the Oilers won the trade.

    That’s an interesting take.

    A couple quibbles

    -33% of Larsson’s time is with 97 so only 66% of his time is spent making “97 off” better. If Hall is deployed on a non-97 line then 100% of his boost is “97-off”

    -He doesn’t push Sekera down the chart. Sekera was 2LD when Klef was healthy last year. Basically he pushed Russell and Benning down the chart and Fayne off the team.

    I like your thinking on this though, thanks for that.

  15. Clarkenstein says:

    Georges:
    stevezie,

    Stevezie:

    Here’s the argument I’m making with the on/off the ice numbers for Hall and Larsson I posted the other night. Again, I’m interpreting the results so far.

    The Devils traded Larsson minutes for Hall minutes. They also traded Larsson off the ice minutes for Hall off the ice minutes.

    They won the first trade by a little bit but badly lost the second trade.

    The Devils weren’t good enough to trade Larsson for Hall. Larsson was probably their #1D, and, if not, definitely their #2D. They didn’t have enough defensive talent and experience to make up for the lost Larsson minutes. Everyone is playing up in the order. We used to do that when we didn’t have enough skilled and experienced defensemen who could play minutes.

    Another team that had the depth to lose a top defenseman would have done well with Hall. The Devils weren’t that team.

    Given the results so far, they got the better player and ended up with a worse team.

    Meanwhile, Larsson lets us shift all of our other defensemen down in the lineup. Sekera is no longer our #1D. He’s one of 4 defensemen taking around 20 minutes a night, along with Larsson, Klefbom and Russell. And we get to bring Benning and Nurse and Davidson along. This is how a defenseman like Larsson makes the rest of the team better: by keeping it close while he’s on the ice and letting the rest of the team play in spots where they’re more likely to succeed

    CMD more than replaces Hall at the top of the lineup. And his on-ice results are better with Larsson on the ice. And the rest of the lineup does just enough to keep it close because we have more talent and depth on defense with Larsson on our team.

    In the seasons where Hall played the other team to a standstill and the rest of our team lost horrendously, the Oilers lacked balance in the results throughout the lineup. By trading for Larsson, we didn’t get closer to balance but we got better. The gap between the on-ice results for our best player and the rest of the team is still big. But the results have improved in both situations.

    So, given the results so far, we got the “worse” player and ended up with the better team. (Quoted because I’m not yet sure how to trade off forward minutes for defenseman minutes. On 5v5 goal differential with the player on the ice, Larsson is a “better” player.)

    This won’t be true for other teams (teams with defensive depth), but I think between Hall and Larsson, Larsson is the more valuable player for both the Oilers and the Devils.

    That’s why I think the Oilers won the trade.

    Absolutely 100% Correct! Very, very well put!

  16. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    It’s amazing how it matches well with the eyeball test, the goalies that are good by the metric are playing well the goalies that are poor by the metric are poor by eyeball.

    I thought Russell wanted to sign in Alberta, if that’s the case I doubt he would want to go to Vegas, but then again after last offseason he might just want piece of mind of a contract

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I can’t wait for Duchenne to get traded so we can finally put to rest if we got a bad deal. Man do I hate Boston for not giving us Hamilton. It would have at least taken the pressure off Chia to improve that right side

  18. norm_klassen says:

    would eberle for boychuk work?

  19. GCW_69 says:

    If you are the Oilers, would you do Eberle and Jones for Strome and Del Colle? Would the isles do it?

  20. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    GCW_69:
    If you are the Oilers, would you do Eberle and Jones for Strome and Del Colle?Would the isles do it?

    If I am the Oilers I would not.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    It’s amazing how it matches well with the eyeball test, the goalies that are good by the metric are playing well the goalies that are poor by the metric are poor by eyeball.

    I thought Russell wanted to sign in Alberta, if that’s the case I doubt he would want to go to Vegas, but then again after last offseason he might just want piece of mind of a contract

    He’s looking his “one big shot” in the eye. I think he takes the first good offer after last summer’s mistake and I think CGY makes a better offer than EDM

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    norm_klassen:
    would eberle for boychuk work?

    that contract is pretty bad. 5 more years at $6MM and he’s already 33 and his play has declined.

  23. jm363561 says:

    Russell has been discussed as much, if not more, than any other player on the roster – Corsi, speed, gap control, giving up blue line, Corsi, exits, etc. To avoid missing the wood for the trees the simple question is how many would look back and say they wished Chia had not signed him? IMHO he has contributed big time (him looking very like a LH Paul Coffey last night helps of course).

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jm363561:
    Russell has been discussed as much, if not more, than any other player on the roster – Corsi, speed, gap control, giving up blue line, Corsi, exits, etc. To avoid missing the wood for the trees the simple question is how many would look back and say they wished Chia had not signed him? IMHO he has contributed big time (him looking very like a LH Paul Coffey last night helps of course).

    Everyone is pretty happy he’s on the roster. (or should be)

    Given that he is a high end 3rd pair LHD, low end 2nd pair LHD and not a good 2nd pair RHD we all fear an extension and wish the Oilers would aim higher for 2RD.

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I can’t wait for Duchenne to get traded so we can finally put to rest if we got a bad deal.Man do I hate Boston for not giving us Hamilton.It would have at least taken the pressure off Chia to improve that right side

    I think Landeskog moves and Duchene stays.

  26. digger50 says:

    Clarkenstein: Absolutely 100% Correct! Very, very well put!

    100% disagree.

  27. stevezie says:

    Georges,

    Interesting indeed.

    Thanks for the response.

  28. misfit says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think Landeskog moves and Duchene stays.

    LW depth be damned, if Landeskog goes, I hope we get him. I’d rather we got Landeskog than Duchene, personally.

    Not that we’re likely in line for either.

  29. misfit says:

    norm_klassen:
    would eberle for boychuk work?

    Same cap hit for a player in legitimate decline for Eberle who IMO is having an off season?

    It wouldn’t work for me.

    I’d also say our RW depth without Eberle is worse than our currend RD depth (ie. without Boychuk)

  30. spoiler says:

    Okay, sorry I’m late, but let’s continue hockey’s longest and most boring argument lol.

    stevezie: 1. Obviously values are subjective, but it seems equally obvious that one can do a good or bad job of assigning value.

    Sure. I agree. One can assign value poorly if one is too lazy, poorly skilled, lacking information or new technology/insight, unlucky, too inexperienced/naïve, lacking sufficient intelligence… whatever pertinent handicap to good transacting.

    But I don’t usually go there unless I have some evidence this is the case… that a handicap exists and it is pertinent to the outcome.

    And from an external observer’s point of view, they would consider us amateur GMs likely to be the most lacking in experience, expertise, information, tools, etc over the professionals and thus poor judges.

  31. spoiler says:

    stevezie:
    […]
    This seems bizarre to me because it ignores two things:

    1. There is an objective goal: The Stanley Cup (or not getting fired, depending on how you want to looks at it.)

    Teams can and often enough do have different goals than championships. For eg. When they are fire-selling their assets to bring costs down to where they can save the franchise. Or, when they are happy with a cheaper mediocre product while the seats are full and the TV contracts are getting signed. These of course might also come under “not getting fired” hehe.

    But when the objective is the Stanley Cup, the paths to getting there are many and are preferred differently by different GMs given different starting points, market conditions etc. For eg the effect of both the expansion and flat cap on values, two pretty unique occurrences.

  32. spoiler says:

    stevezie:

    2. Some people are smarter than others. You will note O’Connell isn’t GM anymore. GMs can either do a bad job of achieving their own goals, or they can set bad goals. When this conversation started you said, “unless you think there was some bad information or irrationality at play.” Of course there was irrationality at play! We are not all working with equal information or equal brains! Is this not obvious>

    Being smarter is somewhat unimportant. It is more important to be smart enough IMO. And along with smart, experienced, informed, equipped enough etc. This is not necessarily a zero sum game. Do GMs try to take advantage of rookie GMs? Sure. But I expect 99 percent of these attempts fail.

    People can also be smarter and suffer badly in some other area, say scouting. In fact there are so many variables at play and the differences shrinking/arbitraged, that they likely offset. But critical errors can still occur, and can be made by the more intelligent person. That’s why there’s more group thought in management these days, to reduce those errors.

    Information mismatches too are far less common today, new tools and insight propagate through the industry fairly quick these days… everyone wants to be a fast adopter. And the informational imbalance between us and GMs is far greater.

    There’s probably some goings on in the odd deal, but I think in general the dealings are honest and fair… the League watches over this shit too, as do agents. And GMs won’t deal with GMs they mistrust, there are “alliances” and of course they talk/share. The market has its own rules too which constrain and enhance transactions and are well known to all participants.

    Now whether all GMs are smart etc enough, lol? Tough to say without having a lot more information. Tough frickin’ job too. Can be really good and still fail.

  33. spoiler says:

    But I really feel like we’re just talking about criteria for evaluating trades. I’m not against that, I’m against assuming every trade is a win-loss when the intent of transacting is otherwise; that different opinions/values are natural and expected and have value because they can expand or annotate context, but cannot truly determine whether a trade is won or lost unless there is evidence or egregiousness; that without evidence or egregiousness, GMs get some benefit of the doubt, rather than getting called anencephalic; and that the whole shitandkaboodle is kind of moot because the only actual judge of won or lost is whether the goals are achieved and we need time and patience to allow that to happen or not happen. (not saying you are doing any of these things above).

    To me we would be better off if rather than making win-loss judgements we start with win-win. Because its more interesting to look into how and why does the GM’s thought process/info/tools etc differ from ours. What does he value differently, why? What does he know we don’t? What risks does he avoid? What does it tell us about market conditions? What evidence can we find for and against why he has made the choices he has? yadda yadda When the future rolls into town, how did our hypotheses do?

    Because as soon as we go win-loss then we’re arguing about who’s right-wrong, and making bets on future “I told you sos”…when we’re really all kind of flailing around in the dark, not privy to soo much insider info and our mathematical tools still developing.

  34. treevojo says:

    spoiler:
    But I really feel like we’re just talking about criteria for evaluating trades.I’m not against that, I’m against assuming every trade is a win-loss when the intent of transacting is otherwise; that different opinions/values are natural and expected and have value because they can expand or annotate context, but cannot truly determine whether a trade is won or lost unless there is evidence or egregiousness; that without evidence or egregiousness, GMs get some benefit of the doubt, rather than getting called anencephalic; and that the whole shitandkaboodle is kind of moot because the only actual judge of won or lost is whether the goals are achieved and we need time and patience to allow that to happen or not happen. (not saying you are doing any of these things above).

    To me we would be better off if rather than making win-loss judgements we start with win-win. Because its more interesting to look into how and why does the GM’s thought process/info/tools etc differ from ours.What does he value differently, why?What does he know we don’t?What risks does he avoid? What does it tell us about market conditions?What evidence can we find for and against why he has made the choices he has?yadda yaddaWhen the future rolls into town, how did our hypotheses do?

    Because as soon as we go win-loss then we’re arguing about who’s right-wrong, and making bets on future “I told you sos”…when we’re really all kind of flailing around in the dark, not privy to soo much insider info and our mathematical tools still developing.

    Nice post

  35. PhrankLee says:

    So apparently Shattenkirk vetoed a sign and trade with Tampa for $6×7

    I personally feel he is the exact guy but looks like he want’s to feel the bigger summer offers.

    I also think he leaked the list earlier and we did not come up.

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