HOME PLATE

My fascination with Bonnie Raitt began in about 1975. My friend Terry used to buy a magazine called Stereo Review. A man named Julian Hirsch (sp?) would write a monthly tome about new stereo equipment that was so full of high fidelity only dogs knew it existed, and Terry loved that stuff. I liked their album reviews (Noel someone, do not recall his name now, was I believe the writer) because they were straight to the point and tended not to frown on country twang or lyrics that landed on this side of Bob Dylan. Stereo Review loved Bonnie Raitt, and so I bought her music beginning middle 1970s. I gave up Stereo Review about 1978, but Bonnie Raitt still sings to me to this day.

Here’s the thing: Not many of us loved Bonnie Raitt in 1975. She had a cover hit of Del Shannon’s Runaway in the late 1970s (it was not my favorite song of hers) and then she drifted and lost a record deal or two along the way. She would show up from time to time on Austin City Limits and I would always watch, those great vocals and guitar still sounding good.

When Bonnie Raitt hit—and folks, she hit—I had been listening to her music for about 15 years. I thought it was pretty cool, kind of like I was part of an inside secret and the world finally caught up to it. That feeling, watching something grow and build and then find greatness, is what we may be witnessing now. There are no guarantees, the Oilers could let it slip through their fingers (although I am not sure how), but that feeling of being a part of the beginning is here now, today. We are here. Home plate.

NICK OF TIME

I always like to take a few minutes after the deadline to have a good long look at each remaining player and their situation with the team. As we have a couple of mornings this week to do it, I am going to discuss the forwards today and the rest of the roster tomorrow.

CENTER (10)

  • Connor McDavid. Finishing his second year and this summer will no doubt see a contract extension. I think we can agree that year one was a flash, but this season we are seeing the enormity of this player. This is an historic player, in real time, full stop. Not just the franchise, he is the league. He came out of the sky, people. And he landed here. 2.63 5×5/60.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. A year ago, I feared the Oilers would trade him away because of his subpar season. Now, we are looking at whatever they call a two-year slump and one wonders how much offense Edmonton’s tough minutes center can bring. He is on pace for 41 points this year after a fairly strong recent run. I wonder if he is here in the fall. 1.36 5×5/60.
  • David Desharnais. I am still surprised by Chiarelli’s adding a skill center. Lots of comments on his lack of size, but that isn’t a big thing for me. Rich Peverley wasn’t a big player, and Desharnais is no wallflower. No, this seems to be a genuine effort to right the ship and re-create an offensive line to hammer the soft parade. I cannot wait for Saturday night to see the alignment and do wonder about a possible future in Edmonton (should things go well). Then again, they passed on Derek Roy after a nice run. 1.35 5×5/60.
  • Mark Letestu. He is one of the truly unique Oilers role players in recent history, playing big PP and PK roles while also being a 4C through and through. He may play even less at evens in the coming days. Another year at $1.8M and is a bargain based on this season. 1.59 5×5/60.
  • Anton Lander. He is an RFA and based on Edmonton’s trade deadline activity one suspects he will not be a part of the team moving forward. His AHL boxcars may have appeal to Vegas, they will be looking for helpers making under $1M with some NHL experience. AHL estimate 3.68 5×5/60. Source
  • Henrik Samuelsson. He is RFA and hasn’t done a lot in a short space of time, it would be unfair to suggest he has had enough time to show what he can do in five games. Still, that may not save him for getting walked this summer. AHL estimate 0.24 5×5/60.
  • Jere Sallinen. He is RFA with arb. rights according to CapFriendly, there isn’t much offense (seven points in 46 games) and he may not return. AHL estimate 0.77 5×5/60.
  • Kyle Platzer. A player like Platzer should hope for a change in the weather and a real chance to show what he can do with 15 minutes a night at the AHL level. I don’t think he has received a full shot so far in his entry-level deal. AHL estimate 0.86 5×5/60.
  • Zach Pochiro. RFA who was part of the Nail Yakupov deal, a late spike (and a recall to the AHL) shows a pulse. Likely gone next year. AHL estimate 3.22 5×5/60.
  • Bogdan Yakimov. A team so low on pro prospects up front may not be able to afford to cut him loose, but if he wants to stay in Russia probably best to move on. He did not have a good season.
  • Likely to return: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Letestu, Kyle Platzer
  • Too soon to know: David Desharnais, Henrik Samuelsson
  • Likely to go: Anton Lander, Jere Sallinen, Zach Pochiro, Bogdan Yakimov
  • Summary: Fantastic at the top, Nuge struggling, Letestu Swiss Army knife.
  • Summer Headlines: McDavid signs deal for eight times maximum the law will allow; Oilers examine possibility of life without Nuge; Letestu’s groove requires a strong 3C; leaving Leon on RW.

LEFT WING (8)

  • Patrick Maroon. The first of dozens of feelgood stories that begin ‘well, they put me on a line with McDavid…’ he is at 20 goals and could end up with 25 or more. Has another year on his deal, not quite a stranglehold on the 1L job. He isn’t going anywhere. 1.74 5×5/60.
  • Milan Lucic. His first Edmonton season has been a worry, as chemistry and the forward pass have been found wanting. He is on pace for 45 points, so is still producing offense, and his contract guarantees several more seasons, but he will need to be better in areas he has flourished in the past—like passing and protecting the puck. 1.07 5×5/60.
  • Benoit Pouliot. I am mildly encouraged by the addition of David Desharnais as it relates to Pouliot. Although it is ancient history (2009-11) the two men did have some success back then, maybe there is some goodness left in the pairing. It is important for BP to get going, Edmonton is extremely unlikely to get lucky and offload this $4M contract that expires in 2019. 0.98 5×5/60.
  • Matt Hendricks. He is UFA at the end of the year and those $1.85M dollars are headed elsewhere. I imagine there is a chance of a TC invite but the Oilers have other, less expensive, options. 1.37 5×5/60.
  • Drake Caggiula. The key for him is offense. I like his speed and he has an edge, plus (so far) enough elusiveness to avoid thundering crashes not of his choosing. I don’t know that we know about his bat yet, but do believe wing is probably his future. 0.74 5×5/60.
  • Jujhar Khaira. If he survives the expansion draft, I think Khaira could have a solid career with the Oilers. He is fast enough and he is dogged on the check, and basically a vice-grip in a board battle. Does he have enough offense? I think he does for a 4L job. He is RFA but the contract would not be an issue. 1.07 5×5/60.
  • Joey Laleggia. RFA after the season, his Oilers career may be getting a reprieve from the governor with his position change. He has 14 goals now and may get a contract this summer and a cup of coffee in this calendar year. AHL estimate 1.11/60. Includes time as a defenseman. 
  • Braden Christoffer. He has another year left on his deal after this one, and there isn’t much offense at the AHL level. He will return. AHL estimate 0.50/60.
  • Likely to return: Patrick Maroon, Milan Lucic, Benoit Pouliot, Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira, Joey Laleggia, Braden Christoffer
  • Too soon to know:
  • Likely to go: Matt Hendricks
  • Summary: The position is covered for next season, but there is at least some worry about all of the characters in the plot. Are there two 20-goal men here? If so, who are they?
  • Summer Headlines: Milan Lucic trains with Patrick Maroon; Khaira remains an Oiler after expansion; Can Caggiula score enough to play in the top 9F?

RIGHT WING (10)

  • Leon Draisaitl. We all want him at center, but the Desharnais trade makes it less likely—at least for this season. Leon is an RFA this season and his contract number is going to be interesting. On pace for 69 points in his second full season. 1.72 5×5/60.
  • Jordan Eberle. He is at 1.56/60 in scoring 5×5 and that represents a giant leap forward over his number in the metric earlier this season. That is very good news, as Edmonton needs him to be a productive player on one of the top two lines. UFA 2019 summer. 1.56 5×5/60.
  • Zack Kassian. He has earned a new contract and the tea leaves suggest he will get one soon. On pace for 22 points and he can play up the depth chart in spurts. RFA this summer, my bet is he is signed before heading home for the summer. 1.57 5×5/60.
  • Anton Slepyshev. Size and speed are there, the worry (there is a trend among the young wingers) is about offense. Although he has one year left on his entry-level deal, I find myself thinking the time is now if Slepyshev is going to make it as an Oiler. Scoring a few goals down the stretch could make a world of difference for him. 1.31 5×5/60.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi. I said before the season that the one good thing about 2016-17 is that we would have JPs offensive potential surrounded by April. Well, we are here, and the answer is not yet completely known to us. Like the player, suspect 50-point seasons are out there, but would like some proof. 1.45 5×5/60 and AHL estimate 2.22 5×5/60. 
  • Iiro Pakarinen. RFA Pakarinen is probably going to lose a battle with this group of RWs in the race to a job as a regular. The coach likes him, that could help. 2.81 5×5/60.
  • Tyler Pitlick. He has been out of the lineup for a long time now, but the numbers and performance were impressive. Pitlick and his agent may decide he should take advantage of that free-agent opportunity and find a more promising landing spot. I hope he stays, because when healthy Pitlick brings a lot to the table, including 5×5 goal scoring. 2.22 5×5/60.
  • Justin Fontaine. UFA this summer and likely to fill a two-way role in Bakersfield. He has NHL speed and is a good checker, so could fill an NHL role if necessary. AHL estimate 1.79/60.
  • Patrick Russell. The forgotten man in the NCAA free-agent flurry last season, he has skill but the speed is not great. Has one more year before RFA status. AHL estimate 0.91 5×5/60.
  • Greg Chase. He played his first year pro in Norfolk, with the idea of coming to Bakersfield this year and establishing himself at that level. Didn’t happen. Chase has one more year on his entry-level deal, I would like to see him in the lineup on one of the top three lines for 40 games in a row. He may not be an NHL player, but give the man his at-bats and let him show what he can do at the AHL level. AHL estimate 0.84 5×5/60.
  • Likely to return: Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle, Zack Kassian, Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Tyler Pitlick, Patrick Russell, Greg Chase.
  • Too soon to know: Justin Fontaine.
  • Likely to go: Iiro Pakarinen.
  • Summary: If Leon stays at RW, the position has real strength. Jordan Eberle seems to be recovering his 5×5 offense, and Jesse Puljujarvi is posting some good numbers in Bakersfield. The club has plenty of depth below those three men at this position, with Zack Kassian a bottom 6F Godsend for fine work done on both sides of the puck.
  • Summer Headlines: Oilers commit to Leon as RW, bloggers weep; Oilers contemplate life without Eberle; Jesse Puljujarvi ready for challenge of 2R role and increased expectations; Kassian signs three-year deal with Oilers.

CHIARELLI AT THE DEADLINE

  1. Acquire Kevin Shattenkirk as a rental if the price isn’t too dear (No)
  2. Acquire a two-way center who can play also play wing (Desharnais is an offensive C)
  3. Added to the list: RW who shoots right and can score goals (No)
  4. Acquire a backup goalie (No)
  5. Get real value for Brandon Davidson at the deadline, by procuring a forward under control and worth protecting (may happen after season) (Rental instead)
  6. Laying groundwork for deal with Golden Knights that could be tied into point No. 4 (No)
  7. Grab a mittful of 2017 draft picks (signed Ryan Mantha)

This was a weird trade deadline for Edmonton. The club sent away Brandon Davidson, who was signed to an excellent contract, at a low value ebb. The return is a rental, but I am reminded of so many Bruins deadlines where the rental ended up staying for a longer term.

I am fine with PC giving his young wingers a chance to shine this spring, and do think we will see enough in names like Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev and Jesse Puljujarvi to be heartened about the future.

The decision to pass on acquiring a backup goalie is curious to me. If the Oilers felt Laurent Brossoit was their backup man, then acquiring Jhonas Enroth for Bakersfield (and injury protection) could have been a solution. As it is, Cam Talbot will likely play all but two games between now and the moment Edmonton clinches. Great news for Brossoit, who has a clear chance to establish himself as the de facto NHL backup beginning this fall.

The Brandon Davidson trade was coming, we saw it from miles away. My preference would have been to acquire a piece that might be useful for the future, but Chiarelli decided to give the current team a little push and I can understand the concept. The state of the Oilers forward depth suggests to me that Desharnais has a real chance at another Oilers contract if he plays well down the stretch. Derek Roy was 1.53/60 at 5×5 in 2014-15 as an Oiler, if Desharnais can hit that number my guess is he gets the contract offer Roy never received.

Chiarelli may have contacted Vegas with a trade idea, I think George McPhee will be focused on Griffin Reinhart, Jujhar Khaira and Benoit Pouliot. It seems reasonable to me that the two men might be able to agree on a deal (select Benoit Pouliot in the expansion draft, Oilers deal the rights to Ziyat Paigin, as an example).

Although the mittful of draft picks did not appear, signing Ryan Mantha was a nice get and we will examine this young player and his potential in the days to come.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning filled with hockey talk and deadline reviews. TSN1260, beginning at 10, and scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Brandon Davidson outer marker, David Desharnais deployment.
  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Did the Oilers do enough at the deadline?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Who won the deadline? Were the Oilers close on anything else?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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172 Responses to "HOME PLATE"

  1. Dominoiler says:

    Is there no way to sign McD for less than a bazillion dollars a year (max), any arguments that could made about how this could handcuff the team moving forward?.. what about the possibility of bridging to get a discount for a couple years.. or just get over it, better to have this problem than not, and just pay the man?..

  2. Lloyd B. says:

    You scooped me. I was going to suggest Ms. Raitt for the next RE series.

    Actually I still will. First in line sets the high bar.

  3. TO10801 says:

    I had a thought about expansion, what if they did not qualify Kassian and did not sign pitlick until after expansion is complete. So you would protect Lucic, Maroon, Draisaitl, Eberle, Nuge, Letestu and Khaira. Kassian and Pitlick could have an agreed upon contract for after expansion and you could either trade Reinhart or make a deal with Vegas to stay away from him. Essentially you could force Vegas to take Pouliot, or let them take a depth prospect.

  4. Edmonton_fan says:

    The theory is that regular season games get more difficult near the end – they are closer checking & lower scoring. Playoff games are much, much more difficult as teams play each other until one gets knocked off.

    The Oilers have way too many players without playoff experience; the odds of getting to the Stanley Cup finals this season are slim to none. I am happy that we are “dancing with the ones that brung us” – giving the kids an opportunity to show they are able to shine in the playoffs.

    Enjoy the show…

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standing this morning using points percentage.Shown as “games over .500” to see spreads.8th place set to 0 games.

    MIN 22
    CHI 17
    SJS 14
    EDM 7
    ANA 6
    NSH 5
    CGY 3
    STL 0
    ——————
    LAK -2
    WPG -7
    DAL -8
    VAN -8
    ARI -16
    COL -29

    I don’t think adding Bishop and Iginla will help LAK, they need to hope STL falls.

    CHI is back to being CHI. Bastards.

    On December 29th they had a score adjusted CF% of about 48% and were riding hot goalering to a big chunk of their points.

    Now they have a score adjusted CF% of 55% in their rolling average and that puts them near the top of the leauge.

    Their goalering has come down to reality a bit, but its still good.

    Darling looks like he has starter potential.

    Looks like CHI and NSH will play in the first round and imo that’s two of the top 4 teams in the West (MIN and SJS being the others)

    Poor NSH will probably lose unless they don’t play Rinne, but how do you sit a goalie you pay $7MM/yr and has 2 years left?

    Not sure, but they should ask Rutherford/Sullivan who finally sat Fleury after Shero/Bylsma/Johnston wouldn’t and they won the Cup again.

    Also,

    WC games tonight:

    ARI at BUF *yawn*
    MIN at CBJ should be fun to watch
    NSH at MTL PK back! Does Davidson play?
    COL at OTT paint drying
    NYI at DAL matters to NYI
    TOR at LAK hope the Leafs can stick a dagger in em
    VAN at SJS shouldn’t be close

  6. JDï™ says:

    No, let’s not go after a backup goaler. That’ll give them something to talk about.

  7. Woogie63 says:

    DD is an interesting pick up, who saw that coming?

    It does upgrade our 3C position,
    It does push Caggulia back to the wing, where the rookie can re-establish his game ,
    It does push Letestu back to 4C where I believe he is better suited,
    It does allow Leon to play with Connor ,
    It does give JP a veteran to help him in the NHL,
    It should provide some more scoring from our third line,
    It does give us a good look at a player we may resign to keep Leon and/or Drake on the wing for one more year.

    And all we gave up was a 7th or 8th dman on our depth chart

  8. SoCaloil says:

    Great post LT. You were a hipster before there were hipsters 🙂

    Would someone be so kind and explain to me the logic behind the fontain vs beck trade
    Wasn’t beck putting up good numbers in AHL n signed to longer term?

  9. GCW_69 says:

    I still struggle to see how giving up Davidson and probably Reinhart for two months of DD is better than doing nothing and calling up lander, losing Davidson and keeping Reinhart as his replacement.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standing this morning using points percentage.Shown as “games over .500” to see spreads.8th place set to 0 games.

    WSH 22
    CBJ 16
    PIT 15
    NYR 12
    MTL 5
    OTT 4
    BOS 2
    NYI 0
    ——————-
    TOR 0
    FLA -1
    TBY -3
    PHI -4
    CAR -7
    NJD -7
    BUF -7
    DET -8

    Turning into a 4 horse race for 2 spots,but TBY has strung together wins. They were -7 not too long ago.

    I’m pulling for Weight and NYI to make it and for TOR to *just* miss Because Comedy.

    Looks like both MTL and BOS have benefited from Julien moving on.

    OTT is trap happy enigma and they were +7 not that long ago and could fall all the way out.

  11. Woogie63 says:

    GCW_69:
    I still struggle to see how giving up Davidson and probably Reinhart for two months of DD is better than doing nothing and calling up lander, losing Davidson and keeping Reinhart as his replacement.

    Why would LV want our 7th and/or 10th best defensemen?

  12. doritogrande says:

    “Oh God! It’s the day after trade deadline. WHAT’S OUR CLEAR-DAY ROSTER?!?!”

    – Oilers Fans (2007-2016)

  13. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Reinhart might be getting better (he is) but it’s fair to say a few things.

    1. He won’t be better than Nurse, Sekera, or Klefbom next year, or the year after that
    2. While he might be good enough to play 3LD next year, his lack of speed makes him a very bad candidate to play his off side.

    So Reinhart will, at very best, be a 7D on the main roster next year. At very best. I’m not sure he’s better than Oesterle or any number of guys we’ll be able to get in the UFA market for $1million.

    So, in order to get over this trade, since we all seem to be absolutely sure that LV would have taken Davidson and absolutely sure that they will now take Reinhart, let’s pretend we traded Reinhart for Desharnais instead. Does that make everyone feel better? Because it amounts to pretty much the same thing from that perspective.

  14. TO10801 says:

    GCW_69,

    I do think Chia might see DD as a 3c for next season as well if he takes a discount. As for Davidson and Reinhart, say you lose Reinhart to expansion. THe only reason it hurts is how much you gave up to get him but that’s over nothing you can do to change that. Even if you keep Davy he is #7 D next year. I would rather have a guy like Gryba who is half a million cheaper and has experience being in and out of the lineup. Honestly, the deal really doesn’t change anything for our NHL roster beyond this year, and we got better now.

  15. raventalon40 says:

    SoCaloil:
    Great post LT. You were a hipster before there were hipsters

    Would someone be so kind and explain to me the logic behind the fontain vs beck trade
    Wasn’t beck putting up good numbers in AHL n signed to longer term?

    Feels like he is erring on the side of experience as Fontaine has NHL speed and experience that Beck doesn’t.

  16. Pouzar says:

    I am getting sick thinking about what the lineup will be Saturday. It’s going to be a tell going forward.
    Enough clowning around TMc. Put the best frickin lineup out there.

  17. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: CHI is back to being CHI. Bastards.
    On December 29th they had a score adjusted CF% of about 48% and were riding hot goalering to a big chunk of their points.
    Now they have a score adjusted CF% of 55% in their rolling average and that puts them near the top of the leauge

    And Kane has passed Crosby in the Connor chase.

  18. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    N64,

    He won’t be denied.

  19. Mr. D. says:

    I think Davey’s health history had a ton to do with the trade. His healthy/injured ratio is not good. Add to that Benning/Russell and Nurse healthy. Had to go.

  20. Chachi says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    N64,

    He won’t be denied.

    He won’t take “no” for an answer?

  21. ntrprtr says:

    In 2003, as a volunteer at Edmonton’s Blues Festival, I had the great pleasure of being Ruth Brown’s driver/liaison for the weekend, and was lucky enough hang out and chat with her for a couple of days. Ruth often spoke glowingly about Bonnie Raitt. After establishing herself as an R&B icon in the 40s and 50s Ruth’s career came to a grinding halt in the 60s, as did many Blues and R&B stars of that time, and Ruth had to take jobs as a cleaning lady to support her family. In the 80s and 90s, however, Bonnie Raitt took Ruth under her wing, had Ruth tour with her, and almost single handedly resurrected Ruth’s career. Bonnie Raitt is a fabulous musician and, by all accounts, an even better person.

  22. dustrock says:

    TO10801:
    GCW_69,

    I do think Chia might see DD as a 3c for next season as well if he takes a discount. As for Davidson and Reinhart, say you lose Reinhart to expansion. THe only reason it hurts is how much you gave up to get him but that’s over nothing you can do to change that. Even if you keep Davy he is #7 D next year. I would rather have a guy like Gryba who is half a million cheaper and has experience being in and out of the lineup. Honestly, the deal really doesn’t change anything for our NHL roster beyond this year, and we got better now.

    I’m not convinced Gryba will return, still think Chia will look to improve RHD, maybe grabbing someone like Vatanen.

    Desharnais is a UFA. So is Hanzal, etc. Chia is certainly going to look at playoff performance and see who fades down the stretch.

    They certainly seem to like Drai on McDavid’s wing, but it’s interesting to me that Eberle has the same track record as Draisaitl there. You’d think the team would be aware of that.

  23. Lloyd B. says:

    dustrock: I’m not convinced Gryba will return, still think Chia will look to improve RHD, maybe grabbing someone like Vatanen.

    Desharnais is a UFA.So is Hanzal, etc.Chia is certainly going to look at playoff performance and see who fades down the stretch.

    They certainly seem to like Drai on McDavid’s wing, but it’s interesting to me that Eberle has the same track record as Draisaitl there.You’d think the team would be aware of that.

    They may not be aware of that. Perhaps you should send them an email.

  24. TO10801 says:

    dustrock,

    I think you can grab Vatanen and still have Gryba as your 7D. He’s kind of the perfect fit for that role as long as he is cheap.

    Agree on everything else though. I think either Nuge or Eberle will be gone this summer and based on TMac’s love of centres I think it will be Eberle. I’m concerned the return on Eberle more than anything will be cap space with some good picks and prospects coming back. They will need the space in 2018/19.

  25. Dino says:

    DD as 3c allows our 3 best centres and players to be in the top 6. I think they’ll alternate Drai with RNH and McD depending on how their lines flow. That kind of flexibility is important.

  26. dustrock says:

    Lloyd B.: They may not be aware of that.Perhaps you should send them an email.

    ha ha ha maybe I will. I’ll tweet at Drai and Eberle to tell T-Mac to put Eberle back up with McDavid.

  27. N64 says:

    dustrock: ha ha ha maybe I will.I’ll tweet at Drai and Eberle to tell T-Mac to put Eberle back up with McDavid.

    ~ Yes. They might not have noticed either. Or they might be too shy to talk to coach and just need a little encouragement. ~

  28. unca miltie says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    My experienced eye says LA gets in and St. Louis is out. Hope I am wrong and the flames are out..

  29. Truth says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    I’m pulling for Weight and NYI to make it and for TOR to *just* miss Because Comedy.

    I second this.

    I also hope CGY is in the same position. I would prefer the Oilers to play them in the 1st round and sweep them handily, but I don’t know if I could handle an Oilers loss to them in the playoffs. Actually, I know I wouldn’t be able to.

  30. kinger_OIL says:

    Woogie63,

    – Great post LT! Woogie: you can join my club of reason for this trade if you’d like!

    – You forgot to add that trading Davdison spot for Mantha, a RHD with some promise: smart

  31. Bank Shot says:

    A Flames meltdown would be perfect.

    I’m excited to see what Desharnais does down the stretch. Chiarelli has been good with his reclamation projects. Maybe he’s the secondary scoring boost that the Oilers have been missing.most of the season.

    If he plays really well into the playoffs maybe he’s the guy that Las Vegas circles for their pick. I still think it could be Russell as well.

    You have to figure Vegas isn’t going to spend more than say 10-15 of their picks on young unestablished players. They need to fill up an NHL roster that won’t get embarrased nightly.

    Are guys like Reinhart and Khaira going to be top 15 among young, unprotected players? I have to think not. Khaira who I think is a great story has 4th line upside at best. Reinhart might have some more upside, but he’ll need to be on the NHL roster and I think there are going to be way more options for Vegas on defence.

    I can’t see Vegas touching Pouliot with a ten foot pole. Edmonton should put up a statue of Chiarelli if he gets Vegas to take that contract.

    That’s why I think Vegas might just take one of Edmonton’s vets. Either way it’s going to be pretty painless.

  32. Truth says:

    It’s also my first time I was able to be on this site since the Mantha signing. Props to whoever it was that had the inside track on that!

  33. T0ML says:

    GCW_69:
    I still struggle to see how giving up Davidson and probably Reinhart for two months of DD is better than doing nothing and calling up lander, losing Davidson and keeping Reinhart as his replacement.

    Maybe because Lander has proven w/o the Pirate beard (Maybe it was Hall zooming him?) That he can produce and be much more than a PK’er? Our largest issue has been lack of secondary scoring, which if you listen to people here Lander would solve. Yet when the rubber hits the road he freezes on the NHL level and forgets how to do all that at the NHL level.

  34. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    T0ML,

    Bingo.

    I’m just going to cut and paste what I wrote earlier.

    Reinhart might be getting better (he is) but it’s fair to say a few things.
    1. He won’t be better than Nurse, Sekera, or Klefbom next year, or the year after that
    2. While he might be good enough to play 3LD next year, his lack of speed makes him a very bad candidate to play his off side.
    So Reinhart will, at very best, be a 7D on the main roster next year. At very best. I’m not sure he’s better than Oesterle or any number of guys we’ll be able to get in the UFA market for $1million.
    So, in order to get over this trade, since we all seem to be absolutely sure that LV would have taken Davidson and absolutely sure that they will now take Reinhart, let’s pretend we traded Reinhart for Desharnais instead. Does that make everyone feel better? Because it amounts to pretty much the same thing from that perspective.

  35. N64 says:

    Bank Shot: If he plays really well into the playoffs maybe he’s the guy that Las Vegas circles for their pick

    Picking a UFA and trying to sign him before July 1 is an expensive way to get negotiating rights on a non-elite player.

    In line with your idea Vegas could try to sign him in the 48 hours before the draft and have him count as their pick.

  36. kinger_OIL says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    – No!!! Griff was a bad trade, he is a bad player. Get with the narrative.

    – I don’t get the sucking in blowing: he can’t be terrible, if on the other side it would be catastrophic to lose a guy who isn’t a NHL D. At least 10 teams have better D than Griff in AHL

    *I pulled 10 teams out of ass: but there are lots.

  37. frjohnk says:

    Mantha is a nice get. A late bloomer, kinda like…..Davidson.

    Took a lot of work and some major obstacles but Davidson made it as an NHL player.

    If Mantha is going to make it, he will have to put alot of work in, as skating is mentioned as his weakness ( though it has improved). If he can duplicate Davidsons road as an NHLer that would be sweet. But we should be patient with this kid.

  38. leadfarmer says:

    I would bet Florida leapfrogs several teams.

  39. N64 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: So Reinhart will, at very best, be a 7D on the main roster next year. At very best.

    ~ Very best may not very well mean what you think it very much means. Verily ~

  40. v4ance says:

    Take this info with a grain of salt but my co-worker played with Ty Rattie in Airdrie when they were younger and gave me some thoughts about his play.

    Slow in hockey sense and in straight line speed. Good enough acceleration for WHL but subpar for NHL. Good on his pivots/agility, good shooter. Carried by Ryan Johansen and Sven Baertshi on a powerhouse Portland team during his draft year.

    To me, it sounds like he’s a much slower version of Nail Yakupov but I haven’t personally seen him play.

    My co-worker likened Rattie to Greg Nemisz who was carried by Hall and Henrique on the Windsor Spitfires

  41. leadfarmer says:

    leadfarmer,

    Woof just looked at their schedule. Maybe not.

  42. leadfarmer says:

    v4ance:
    Take this info with a grain of salt but my co-worker played with Ty Rattie in Airdrie when they were younger and gave me some thoughts about his play.

    Slow in hockey sense and in straight line speed. Good enough acceleration for WHL but subpar for NHL.Good on his pivots/agility, good shooter.Carried by Ryan Johansen and Sven Baertshi on a powerhouse Portland team during his draft year.

    To me, it sounds like he’s a much slower version of Nail Yakupov but I haven’t personally seen him play.

    And Joe Pavelski was a terrible skater. Probably the worst skaters of the better players on the team. Crazy good shot. Some players can overcome their deficiencies and some can’t

  43. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Matthews is still winning the Calder. It’s been decided months ago.

  44. Ducey says:

    I was looking at Mantha. Hopefully he can skate, because he has some impressive stats.

    He leads his team in points. He is 6th in the league for points by a defenseman.

    He leads the OHL in shots by a defenseman with 281. The next closest defenseman has 203. There are only 4 defensemen with more than 180. He has 3 games where he had 10 shots or more. One game he had 12.

    Further, he leads the entire OHL in shots. The next closest player has 262. Alex Debrincat has 242.

    The WHL and QMJHL don’t list shots in their summary, but there is a decent chance he leads the CHL in shots. Incredible.

    It would seem that his team is lousy, and perhaps they simply pass it back to the point for the bomb all the time, but still that is a lot of shots.

  45. Bank Shot says:

    N64: Picking a UFA and trying to sign him before July 1 is an expensive way to get negotiating rights on a non-elite player.

    In line with your idea Vegas could try to sign him in the 48 hours before the draft and have him count as their pick.

    Sure.

    I think it could go either way with Edmonton. Vegas isn’t necessarily going to want youth.

    I think as it stands now, McPhee probably has more than a few guys he really wants. Once those guys are gone he looks at what he has for holes in his roster and picks a player from Edmonton based on that.

    I think he probably doesn’t have any of the flotsam and Jetsam availible circled in red pen at this point.

  46. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Not so much that, actually.
    If Chia leaves Reinhart exposed and makes no deal with Vegas to have them select someone else instead I will be pleasantly surprised.

    I think Reinhart still has room to improve so it isn’t that I want to lose him.

    We will find out this June what Chia’s plans are.

    The way I see it, Chia fetched a 3rd for Davidson and then used that 3rd to grab Desharnais as a rental. It is the most pro-Chia way to frame this trade.

    One possibility is that McPhee was interested in Davidson with his year at 1.4m. He wasn’t interested in gambling on AHL RFA Reinhart. Chia knew this and moved Davidson for something, leaving McPhee to choose from Reinhart, Pouliot, Fayne, Letestu etc. But it is impossible to prove. All we have is a comment from a reliable source in Friedman, that the Oilers were putting Davidson on the block because they were afraid of losing him for nothing.

    Still not proof.

  47. russ99 says:

    For me a deadline big win is not trading any more picks, that will help fill the barren forward ranks in the system.

    I also think it’s foolish to assume Eberle and RNH are both likely to return.

    I’d expect one to be moved this summer, if only to clear cap room for our salary increases, a little more bonus cushion and the player(s) we’d get in return.

  48. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ducey,

    Yup, but he is 21. A man in a boy’s league. You would want his numbers to jump off the page in this scenario.

    Like the signing, don’t get me wrong. but huge leaps lie ahead with the AHL.

  49. russ99 says:

    N64: Picking a UFA and trying to sign him before July 1 is an expensive way to get negotiating rights on a non-elite player.

    In line with your idea Vegas could try to sign him in the 48 hours before the draft and have him count as their pick.

    Putting the Vegas GM hat on, unless we’re talking about impact FAs, I don’t see Vegas doing that.

    They can get two assets by taking one in the expansion draft and signing a FA after the exclusive period.

    Vegas will need to outbid by a large amount to get players to refuse offers from competitive teams anyway.

    Why limit it to one player both as a pick and a UFA, especially for a UFA who’s a mid-to-bottom roster player?

    Let’s not forget they need to fill an AHL roster too.

  50. JustWatt says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:

    So, in order to get over this trade, since we all seem to be absolutely sure that LV would have taken Davidson and absolutely sure that they will now take Reinhart, let’s pretend we traded Reinhart for Desharnais instead.Does that make everyone feel better?Because it amounts to pretty much the same thing from that perspective.

    Thanks for sharing this, it’s a smart way to view things.

    The Oil were already losing something for nothing and that something was either going to be Davidson or one of Pouliot/Reinhart/Fayne/Lander/Letestu/Khaira depending on how they protect.

    Even if they could have paid LV to protect Davidson they still would have had to lose 2+ assets to keep him around as a 7D.

    So the smart thing to do here was cash in Davidson for an asset because he brings the greatest return and lose a lesser asset to LV.

    No one else on the list could have brought back an offensive 3C this deadline.

    If any of them could have then that would have been smarter but since they likely couldn’t, go ahead spend the more valuable asset for the highest return available and lose the lesser asset for nothing.

    There was no perfect answer here and this small tweak balances the team well for the post-season without selling the farm.

  51. Ducey says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Ducey,

    Yup, but he is 21. A man in a boy’s league. You would want his numbers to jump off the page in this scenario.

    Like the signing, don’t get me wrong. but huge leaps lie ahead with the AHL.

    He is 20 and in his draft +3, but he was drafted out of the USHL, and this is only his third OHL year. That would seem to indicate he is the late bloomer. There may be more development, still.

    I agree though, he (as all prospects) has a long ways to go.

    I am kind of expecting something like Ben Betker, though a touch of Colton Parayko would be nice 🙂

  52. digger50 says:

    Here is why I get upset with Chiarrelli. Rant warning alert

    The Oil are god this year, doing exceptionally well. They are a few pieces away from moving to elite. We can see this. They are also exposed to injury in key positions.

    Peter says “we are not contenders the year”. “We’ll just get some playoff experience” so number one you know the roster needs to improve. Who’s job is to make the improvements?

    Second, if the players coast though playoffs with a lack of compete, don’t complain Peter. You set the tone, stating they are just thereto get some experience.

    You want players to play hard, they want a GM who is all in.

    You spent a million dollars scouting for this deadline and were reportedly in on numerous deals. I find this encouraging. Unfortunately You basically struck out and now have to report you are happy with the team as is. That’s the political side sure.

    Fact is you were unable to substantially improve. You missed or passed on opportunity. I dont think Peter as a bad GM, I just get disappointed when I see the team close and needing a little push to be great.

    Need to get it done Peter, the hard trades, not just the easy to ones. Get us to the next level
    Please.

  53. Lloyd B. says:

    russ99: Putting the Vegas GM hat on, unless we’re talking about impact FAs, I don’t see Vegas doing that.

    They can get two assets by taking one in the expansion draft and signing a FA after the exclusive period.

    Vegas will need to outbid by a large amount to get players to refuse offers fromcompetitive teams anyway.

    Why limit it to one player both as a pick and a UFA, especially for a UFA who’s a mid-to-bottom roster player?

    Let’s not forget they need to fill an AHL roster too.

    I can’t recall who it was on Gregors show last week but they suggested LV will go without an AHL team for a few years. Cost is a huge factor. Especially after dropping $500M.

    Loan out their players until they have enough to round out a squad. We all know how that works out.

  54. nvan97 says:

    russ99,

    What do you mean by “exclusive period”?

  55. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    digger50,

    If you’re talking about moving this team into “elite” territory, you’re talking about getting a big deal done. A Duchene/Shattenkirk type deal. You’re not talking about Lee Stempniak here.

    How does one party in a two party trade “get a trade done” unilaterally, exactly? The answer is “keep offering more until it’s enough”. I’m not sure I agree that he should have paid litterally any price to acquire an elite player. I want the team to succeed this year, but not at any cost. I think a fair number of fans agree with my take on that, though to each his own.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Still wouldn’t like it. Davidson for a 3rd, fine. A small center with a significant recent injury that has been HS for a month shouldn’t have cost more than a 6th like Stafford did.

  57. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    leadfarmer,

    maybe.

    But the difference in value between a 3rd round pick and a 6th round pick is pretty marginal. Hardly anything to lose sleep over.

  58. meanashell11 says:

    digger50:
    Here is why I get upset with Chiarrelli. Rant warning alert

    The Oil are god this year, doing exceptionally well. They are a few pieces away from moving to elite. We can see this. They are also exposed to injury in key positions.

    Peter says “we are not contenders the year”. “We’ll just get some playoff experience” so number one you know the roster needs to improve. Who’s job is to make the improvements?

    Second, if the players coast though playoffs with a lack of compete, don’t complain Peter. You set the tone, stating they are just thereto get some experience.

    You want players to play hard, they want a GM who is all in.

    You spent a million dollars scouting for this deadline and were reportedly in on numerous deals. I find this encouraging. Unfortunately You basically struck out and now have to report you are happy with the team as is. That’s the political side sure.

    Fact is you were unable to substantially improve. You missed or passed on opportunity. I dont think Peter as a bad GM, I just get disappointed when I see the team close and needing a little push to be great.

    Need to get it done Peter, the hard trades, not just the easy to ones. Get us to the next level
    Please.

    The key think to remember is the LV draft. Given you have to protect what you like and only have so many slots, unless you are ready to go all in, this is not the year. Let’s say we wanted Duchene, even if you offered RNH and Ebs ++, Colorado would be hesitant because then they have to protect two instead of one. Only those willing to mortgage the future and go all in had a reason to make a splash at the deadline. This summer is when the fireworks happen.

  59. Bank Shot says:

    russ99: Putting the Vegas GM hat on, unless we’re talking about impact FAs, I don’t see Vegas doing that.

    They can get two assets by taking one in the expansion draft and signing a FA after the exclusive period.

    Vegas will need to outbid by a large amount to get players to refuse offers fromcompetitive teams anyway.

    Why limit it to one player both as a pick and a UFA, especially for a UFA who’s a mid-to-bottom roster player?

    Let’s not forget they need to fill an AHL roster too.

    At the same time if they are even a little serious about icing a competitive team they can’t leave like 10 roster spots on their NHL roster open with the idea to fill them in later during UFA period.

    They are going to have to spend a certain amount of money and that means targeting some older mid level guys that can chew up a few million each.

    I think Vegas is going to target more older players than what we have been thinking so far. Do you really want a team made up almost entirely of under 25 year olds running amok in Vegas anyway?

  60. Irish says:

    Woogie63,

    Woogie63:
    DD is an interesting pick up, who saw that coming?

    It does upgrade our 3C position,
    It does push Caggulia back to the wing, where the rookie can re-establish his game ,
    It does push Letestu back to 4C where I believe he is better suited,
    It does allow Leon to play with Connor ,
    It does give JP a veteran to help him in the NHL,
    It should provide some more scoring from our third line,
    It does give us a good look at a player we may resign to keep Leon and/or Drake on the wing for one more year.

    And all we gave up was a 7th or 8th dman on our depth chart

    This is the best analysis of the DD acquisition I have read.

  61. 106 and 106 says:

    “There are no guarantees, the Oilers could let it slip through their fingers (although I am not sure how), but that feeling of being a part of the beginning is here now, today. We are here. Home plate.”

    I once read this blog everyday during a long stint with Doctors without Borders in South Sudan. This was during the nadir of the team, but this site was an oasis for me.

    Those awful oilers years were the beginning. This is the beginning of the good times.

    In the battle to getting to the beginning, good members were lost – like ROM or DSF.

    To the new good times – thanks for being a great leader, LT.

  62. treevojo says:

    leadfarmer:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Still wouldn’t like it.Davidson for a 3rd, fine. A small center with a significant recent injury that has been HS for a month shouldn’t have cost more than a 6th like Stafford did.

    Victor stalberg who is starting on ottawa’s 4th line as a winger went for a 3rd round pick.

    Kulikov and Franson out of buffalo couldn’t fetch anything.

    Weird deadline this year.

  63. Side says:

    digger50:
    Here is why I get upset with Chiarrelli. Rant warning alert

    The Oil are god this year, doing exceptionally well. They are a few pieces away from moving to elite. We can see this. They are also exposed to injury in key positions.

    Peter says “we are not contenders the year”. “We’ll just get some playoff experience” so number one you know the roster needs to improve. Who’s job is to make the improvements?

    Second, if the players coast though playoffs with a lack of compete, don’t complain Peter. You set the tone, stating they are just thereto get some experience.

    You want players to play hard, they want a GM who is all in.

    You spent a million dollars scouting for this deadline and were reportedly in on numerous deals. I find this encouraging. Unfortunately You basically struck out and now have to report you are happy with the team as is. That’s the political side sure.

    Fact is you were unable to substantially improve. You missed or passed on opportunity. I dont think Peter as a bad GM, I just get disappointed when I see the team close and needing a little push to be great.

    Need to get it done Peter, the hard trades, not just the easy to ones. Get us to the next level
    Please.

    The Oilers have a bunch of players who haven’t been in the playoffs before. A lot of the Oilers also have a low price tag attached to them simply because they are Oilers. It makes a lot of sense to me for Pete to see what his current players can do in the playoffs before deciding what to do with them. If Nuge and Eberle for example, tear up the playoffs, their value significantly increases and now Pete has more ability to make big trades to build up an elite team. Why would Pete trade even more good pieces with low value for peanuts when he, and the rest of the league can see what these pieces do in the playoffs first?

    I really don’t know why people are freaking out or acting like Pete isn’t doing enough, quickly enough. He said from the get go he would see what his players are capable of in season 1 in the regular season. Then he built a team for season 2 which is now heading to the playoffs. It only makes sense he will see what they can do in the playoffs and build off that in season 3, knowing that the team he has built in season 2 can make the playoffs and what their deficiencies are.


    Fact is you were unable to substantially improve. ”

    This is hilarious, given the Oilers year over year improvement that LT posts pretty much every single thread which demonstrates that the team has been substantially improved.

    The big deals will come in the summer and next trade deadline. I guarantee it.

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Man do I wish some of the posters here could be the GM for a day.

    The downside is they’d drive the team in the ditch for another decade.

    But it might almost be worth it to reduce the amount of bleating about what a horrible job Chiarelli does and/or how they could do so much better. Almost.

  65. Woogie63 says:

    Irish,

    Thanks

  66. rickithebear says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Yup, but he is 21. A man in a boy’s league. You would want his numbers to jump off the page in this scenario.

    they Do not track Low danger and high danger shots to have his Defensive numbers jump out.

    You know Defence for a defenceman.

    Since the top 15 offensive Dmen in the NHL score at a #10 fwd (4th line) rate. Dman’s even offence has as much affect and value as say Hendricks.

    Mantha’s draft +3 Age NHLE
    suggests:
    3EVG 10 EVA 13 EVP top 90 Even Off D.
    4PPG 8 PPA 12 PPP

    I like me some Stick and Body length to Protect the HD.

  67. classict says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    So there’s no such thing as a bad GM? I’m not saying Chia is one, but just because the average poster couldn’t be a GM doesn’t mean there aren’t bad GM’s

    It also doesn’t mean people can’t recognize when a GM makes a mistake or mean GMs shouldn’t be criticized for those mistakes.

    I couldn’t play in the NHL but I can pretty easily recognize McDavid is better than Lander.

  68. Side says:

    classict:
    Bag of Pucks,

    So there’s no such thing as a bad GM? I’m not saying Chia is one, but just because the average poster couldn’t be a GM doesn’t mean there aren’t bad GM’s

    It also doesn’t mean people can’t recognize when a GM makes a mistake or mean GMs shouldn’t be criticized for those mistakes.

    I couldn’t play in the NHL but I can pretty easily recognize McDavid is better than Lander.

    But you can see visually how McDavid is better than Lander. There are also statistics to show that McDavid is better than Lander.

    You can’t do that for a GM because 90% of what a GM does is behind the scenes. The problem I’ve seen with a lot of people lately is “why didn’t Chia trade ‘x’ player for ‘y’ and ‘z’! it’s so obvious and it would work, he’s such an idiot!”.

    Well, what if Chia DID try to trade ‘x’ player for ‘y’ and ‘z’???? People don’t know, but they go on huge, long rants and act as if they know better than the GM.

    I still see people blame Chia for not landing Dougie Hamilton, even though it was reported that Chia offered Boston MORE for Dougie than what the Flames gave Boston. How is this the GM’s fault?

    I’m not saying Pete is a perfect GM and doesn’t make mistakes, because he does, but there are posters that are getting to the point where they are fantasizing about trades that would only happen in a video game and bashing Pete for not making it happen.

  69. dustrock says:

    digger50:
    Here is why I get upset with Chiarrelli. Rant warning alert

    The Oil are god this year, doing exceptionally well. They are a few pieces away from moving to elite. We can see this. They are also exposed to injury in key positions.

    Peter says “we are not contenders the year”. “We’ll just get some playoff experience” so number one you know the roster needs to improve. Who’s job is to make the improvements?

    Second, if the players coast though playoffs with a lack of compete, don’t complain Peter. You set the tone, stating they are just thereto get some experience.

    You want players to play hard, they want a GM who is all in.

    You spent a million dollars scouting for this deadline and were reportedly in on numerous deals. I find this encouraging. Unfortunately You basically struck out and now have to report you are happy with the team as is. That’s the political side sure.

    Fact is you were unable to substantially improve. You missed or passed on opportunity. I dont think Peter as a bad GM, I just get disappointed when I see the team close and needing a little push to be great.

    Need to get it done Peter, the hard trades, not just the easy to ones. Get us to the next level
    Please.

    This is unfair. He made one of the hardest Oilers trades of all time (non-Gretzky category) in trading Hall for Larsson. The amount of shit he continues to take for that trade, with the Oilers in 2nd place in the Pacific Division, is outstanding.

    We previously had Mr. Dithers and Mr. MBA as general managers who wouldn’t know a tough trade if it came up and introduced itself by name.

    He has replaced a huge percentage of the roster in 2 years – who is left from the Die-Nasty Era besides Eberle, RNH, and Klefbom?

    People were pressuring him to trade RNH or Eberle at the deadline. He did not do that.

    People were saying “our prospect cupboards are bare!”. He did not trade any draft picks. My one criticism is that he might have tried to add draft picks by dumping Hendricks or Russell.

    He added another RHD orospect in Mantha. I would almost certainly expect the Oilers to draft only forwards in this year’s draft.

    The one thing we keep hearing about this entire year is how well the team gets along and how bonded they are.

    Rather than doing an Alex Anthopoulous “let’s bring in the ringers and go for it”, he’s telling the team, “you can do it yourselves, show me what you can do.”

    Maybe that backfires badly, but I think it’s at least justifiable.

    Next year is the year where we get to bring out the pitchforks if he hasn’t added at the deadline.

  70. Spengler says:

    One thing that complicates things for the Vegas team that I’ve not seen mentioned (I’d be happy if someone points me in the right direction if it has) is the contract status of players selected after next year. Too many UFAs selected at one position risks them all walking away at the same time. A bigger issue would be RFAs though. I’d assume (I know, I know…) that most teams with RFAs have ongoing discussions with agents regarding contracts and as such a rough idea what they are looking for in the coming year. I’m assuming Vegas will only have the 3 day window between the release of he lists and the submission of their selections to get a feel for that.

    While RFAs have appeal due to the years of control available, budgeting for them could be difficult. Taking on longer contracts can provide a greater degree of cost certainty for them.

    Then there’s the issue of playing time for everyone. Either they have an AHL team and will need to sign another 15-20 free agents to fill their roster, or they won’t and they’ll have 30 guys for 23 active roster spots.

    I do not envy McPhee and his team.

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    classict:
    Bag of Pucks,

    So there’s no such thing as a bad GM?

    Not. What. I. Wrote.

  72. --hudson-- says:

    Looks like Davidson is a scratch for Montreal versus Nashville.

    Montreal now has quite a leftorium: Emelin, Beaulieu, Nesterov, Benn, Markov and Davidson
    I wonder if they are doing the Bruce Wayne strategy of taking advantage of other GMs loss aversion in order to load up their roster.

    Anyway I think it helps to take the Montreal perspective on this – while Davidson may be a top 4 defensemen for us, he’s not perceived at that level in Montreal. That explains why we couldn’t get more from Montreal and keep in mind they have a stock pile of 2nd round picks, 5 in the next two drafts.

    I wonder which other eastern conference teams would have been interested – NYR, Pitts, CBJ all picked up LD yesterday.
    – Streit was dealt for a 4th rounder
    – Quincey was dealt for Prout
    – Brendan Smith for a 2nd + 3rd

    Detroit got nice value for Smith but the other two deals appear underwhelming.

  73. Bruce Wayne says:

    You guys are overthinking Mcphee’s position. He should take the best player available from every team within the constraints of the draft rules (at least 20 have to have contracts, so only 10 guys on RFA contracts), ideally taking 30 NHL quality players. Then he should trade the excess to the highest bidder to avoid losing these players on waivers.

    If you run the draft simulator at cap friendly you’ll see that the Las Vegas team could actually have excellent depth, with a fourth line that is better than most teams third lines. The problem is they won’t have any top flight players. If they play their cards right they should have a lot of surplus value to get future draft picks without actually hurting their on ice product because their 15th best player will be the best 15th best player in the entire league.

  74. Bruce Wayne says:

    The one defense of the trade that is somewhat true is that the Oilers are now guaranteed to not lose anyone of value. If you do the cap friendly exercise you find the Oilers are one of only a few teams which after protecting players there is no player left over which you would actually want.

    The good news is this means the expansion draft is going to be a big relative gain for the Oilers. Most of their competitors are going to lose someone useful but the Oilers have no one useful to lose.

    The bad news is the Oilers have no one useful to lose.

    In this respect the best trade of the day was by Steve Yzerman, easily the best GM in the league, who not only saved money by trading Filpula but, because Filpula has a NMC, also freed up a spot to protect Alex Killorn.

  75. GCW_69 says:

    Woogie63: Why would LV want our 7th and/or 10th best defensemen?

    I would not underestimate the pull of draft pedigree on GM decision making.

    That said, of you take your view, then the oilers lose Davidson and someone better than Reinhart for two months of DD.

  76. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce Wayne: Steve Yzerman, easily the best GM in the league

    Stan Bowman, Dean Lombardi, Doug Armstrong, Ken Holland, Dave Poille, Chuck Fletcher, etc, etc, all say “Hi!”

    Yzerman had a good day yesterday. But “easily the best GM in the league” is stretching it.

  77. N64 says:

    Bruce Wayne: You guys are overthinking Mcphee’s position. He should take the best player available from every team within the constraints of the draft rules (at least 20 have to have contracts, so only 10 guys on RFA contracts), ideally taking 30 NHL quality players. Then he should trade the excess to the highest bidder to avoid losing these players on waivers.

    Pick and peddle is the reference value. But a direct deal can skip pick and peddle for draft picks or prospects. That can mean less overthinking for him. 😉

  78. GCW_69 says:

    TO10801:
    GCW_69,

    I do think Chia might see DD as a 3c for next season as well if he takes a discount. As for Davidson and Reinhart, say you lose Reinhart to expansion. THe only reason it hurts is how much you gave up to get him but that’s over nothing you can do to change that. Even if you keep Davy he is #7 D next year. I would rather have a guy like Gryba who is half a million cheaper and has experience being in and out of the lineup. Honestly, the deal really doesn’t change anything for our NHL roster beyond this year, and we got better now.

    I guess we well see. I have lots of Hab fans as friends and none of them think DD is a great loss.

    DD is on the wrong side of thirty, and tending down. I would hope he would aim higher.

  79. Mike says:

    dustrock,

    What is unfair? PC didn’t make the hardest trade since Gretzky. What he did was loose a tone of value in the trade. Just like when he moved another elite player in Seguin. Is the Kessel trade a wash because Toronto nose dived in the standing ultimately giving a second place lottery pick. I really like Larsson and have followed him since his draft. PC seems better suited for smaller trades where he has alot of success.

    Completely agree with you regarding Russell, Hendrix and the Mantha signing. I also agree that he shouldn’t be trying to trade Nuge EBS ect.

    I think that it’s unfair that just because Larsson is a Success, that means the value lost doesn’t matter?

    Just like Chicago and the other top teams,, they rarely make moves where they instantly take a hit and loose value in the trade.

    So Edmonton player’s will be worth a whole bunch more if they rip it in the playoffs. However that doesn’t matter if your GM still makes trades that they loose. Leading to other teams continued line of thinking that you can get players from the Oilers for less than market value.

  80. frjohnk says:

    GCW_69: I guess we well see. I have lots of Hab fans as friends and none of them think DD is a great loss.

    Most Habs fans like the trade. They got rid of a guy that was injured and healthy scratched for half of the year and didnt put up many points in the games he did play. And they received a guy who provides depth, is cheap and can be used as an asset for the expansion draft.

    But if DD is healthy, he will be given a chance by the Oilers to see if he has anything left (something he wasnt given by the Habs)

    From an asset management view we lost the trade, but the amount we lost, isnt much and we never know, maybe he knocks it out of the park and we end up with unicorns going into playoffs. Worst case scenario is that he is not 100%, doesnt gain traction and is replaced by someone else on the roster heading into the playoffs. But then he is UFA and we let him go.

    Whatever happens from here on in, DD is an Oiler, I’ll be cheering for him.

  81. Melvis says:

    Mike,

    Mike…was that a long tone or a short tone? I suspect he gained a semitone on the trade…imho.

    This is, of course, a two glass lunch kind of comment on a practice day;-)

  82. N64 says:

    Bohologo: what if Vegas uses the BPA approach and winds up with 22 third line RWs

    They can only take 18 RW. ;).

    The Las Vegas franchise must select the following number of players at each position: 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goaltenders

  83. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne: In this respect the best trade of the day was by Steve Yzerman, easily the best GM in the league, who not only saved money by trading Filpula but, because Filpula has a NMC, also freed up a spot to protect Alex Killorn.

    Hilariously this is the common sentiment out in the MSM. Pats on the back galore for Stevie Y trading a crappy contract he gave to Filppula in the first place. On the bright side he still has Ryan Callahan’s awful contract for which he is also responsible left to offload so he can pick up more GM of the year votes in the future.

  84. Bank Shot says:

    I think if you are Vegas you are going to be tempted to go after guys in the AHL that are poised to make the leap and will be effective players for years.

    Your Boychuk/Sharp type players. Guys on the verge of putting it all together but that the parent club won’t be able to justify protecting.

    Guys like that are a reason you don’t just select the 30 guys that are the best right in the moment. And let’s face it there are going to be some moves made and I think nearly half of the NHL won’t have a guy left unprotected that is a solid NHL player without age or contract warts.

    Even right now in the Pacific you’ve got Edmonton, Calgary, Arizona, LA, and San Jose that aren’t going to lose anything of real significance to the expansion draft.

    Vegas can try and wheel and deal but their team is going to suck out loud the first season without question.

  85. classict says:

    Chachi: Hilariously this is the common sentiment out in the MSM. Pats on the back galore for Stevie Y trading a crappy contract he gave to Filppula in the first place. On the bright side he still has Ryan Callahan’s awful contract for which he is also responsible left to offload so he can pick up more GM of the year votes in the future.

    Well I mean losing a fourth to clear cap space is better that giving up something like Teravainen (for example).

  86. kinger_OIL says:

    Mike,

    – The souffle sucked. Chef Chia, examined the recipe, replaced the expensive high quality truffles

    – In this years souflle, the truffle, a rare and beautiful ingredient, but sometimes finicky, and not always available, was replaced with a good, but less quality oil: a clearly lesser ingredient

    – This new souffle: without the truffle:it’s so much better, puffier, and patrons like it more. They don’t miss the truffles

  87. Chachi says:

    classict: Well I mean losing a fourth to clear cap space is better that giving up something like Teravainen (for example).

    Yes it is better. Is it deserving of praise? Meh.

  88. Bruce Wayne says:

    It is true that Chiarelli did much better than actively ruining his team a la Doiron. The Burrows trade is genuinely inexplicable.

    Benning did great at the trade deadling. Which is strange. The NHL trade market is nothing if not inefficient.

  89. Melvis says:

    Don’t get over excited about minor trades. This year it’s a first round playoff loss. Maybe, with luck we go two. Next year, two…maybe three. In three years we’ll be crapping our drawers game 7 in the finals. Moar patience…but I’m willin’.

    Willin’ has something to do with Little Feet and Bonnie Rait. In ’75, she was a 20 feet from stardom type…and showed up for a Richie Hayward birthday/kitchen party somewhere in the Hollywood Hills. It was a hell of a night. Lowell George was still alive. There were many others of note in the house, and somehow…I don’t remember the circumstances – i ended up walking in with Linda Ronstadt – having done a few dates with her, Jackson Browne and the Eagles.

    Now, one weeps at life’s weird turns and circumstance. It starts to make sense in one’s third act.

    So like I said, relax. We love the Oilers, but just a game.

  90. JDï™ says:

    Desharnais took centre ice to lead the stretch for the Oilers.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/oilers-practice-updates-0302/c-287297960

    Intangibles, other than a ready playoff beard?

  91. Bruce Wayne says:

    Bohologo: Are you the guy down at the alley saying Smokey, this is not ‘Nam. This is bowling. There are rules?

    Because yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.

    Seriously though! Thanks for pointing out the fine print. But I think the idea mostly stands; BPA only expansion drafting presents limitations, ultimately.

    Try the exercise for yourself. It is interesting. To take your example, you have to take 9 D, and you have to take 3 goalies, so BPA has already been mitigated by the rules. So if BPA takes you down the extreme route of 18 forwards it is exceedingly likely that you will get at least 4 centers and 4 LW, leaving you with only 10 RW, so the worst case scenario is a surplus of 6 RW.

    In any case, if you go draft a roster using BPA I think you will find that you also have a useable roster that requires only a few tweaks, mostly to conform to the 20 contract rule.

  92. Bruce Wayne says:

    Melvis:
    Don’t get over excited about minor trades. This year it’s a first round playoff loss. Maybe, with luck we go two. Next year, two…maybe three. In three years we’ll be crapping our drawers game 7 in the finals. Moar patience…but I’m willin’.

    Willin’ has something to do with Little Feet and Bonnie Rait. In ’75, she was a 20 feet from stardom type…and showed up for a Richie Hayward birthday/kitchen party somewhere in the Hollywood Hills. It was a hell of a night. Lowell George was still alive. There were many others of note in the house, and somehow…I don’t remember the circumstances – i ended up walking in with Linda Ronstadt – having done a few dates with her, Jackson Browne and the Eagles.

    Now, one weeps at life’s weird turns and circumstance. It starts to make sense in one’s third act.

    So like I said, relax. We love the Oilers, but just a game.

    I think I can safely say that you have lived the most interesting life of anyone I do not know.

  93. Mike says:

    Noo my little pig, Mcdavid is the biggest difference in team’s success. Not because PC is a world class GM. Get real

  94. Pouzar says:

    JDï™: a ready playoff beard

    Aren’t those just REALLY LONG sideburns?

  95. Rocknrolla says:

    Dominoiler:
    Is there no way to sign McD for less than a bazillion dollars a year (max), any arguments that could made about how this could handcuff the team moving forward?.. what about the possibility of bridging to get a discount for a couple years.. or just get over it, better to have this problem than not, and just pay the man?..

    This!

    I also agree, He knows he can handicap the team, his endorsements alone make his salary less of a thing for him. I can see him taking a fair but friendly contract, whether bridge or 8 year, because he wants to win…similar to Sid.

  96. JDï™ says:

    Pouzar: REALLY LONG sideburns?

    Depends if ass hair is involved.

  97. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce Wayne: I think I can safely say that you have lived the most interesting life of anyone I do not know.

    Melvis doesn’t always post stories, but when he does…….they’re amazing.

    Anybody else read Melvis’ awesome posts as the Dos Equis guy?

  98. Melvis says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Frankly, I’m not entirely certain if you’re for us or agin us half the time, but if that’s a compliment – thanks.

    And I have to admit to burning cells for an hour or two over some of your comments….which, I suspect, is kinda the point. Although it pisses me off;-)

    There’s something to be said for Gabriel García Márquez, magic realism – and working one’s personal goals back to front. It’s a thing….although illogical.

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    For the record I think Desharnais will be an excellent addition.

    Everyone is underestimating his offence and I think he’ll bring a real scoring dimension to the 3rd line.

    I see a 67-Desharnais-98 line in the not to distant future and think it will score well.

    He is also usually a slight plus relative corsi player and that is a huge upgrade on 36,55 for the 3C spot.

    Here something to chew on.

    Desharnais 335 minutes this year 2.19GF/60

    Desharnais + Emelin 117 min 0.51 GF/60
    Desharnais w/o Emelin 237 min 3.03 GF/60

    3.03 is more than 97 is scoring/60 btw…Desharnais offence might still be there…..

    Maybe Emelin is just the GF/60 black hole? He’s been playing toughs with Weber and goals for go to die when those two are together.

    Check this out:

    MTL centers GF/60 with and without Emelin + Weber

    Plekanec 1.51 with; 2.24 without
    Danult 2.43 with; 2.20 without
    Mitchell 1.23 with; 2.05 without
    Galchenyuk 1.59 with; 3.09 without
    Shaw 1.15 with; 2.68 without

    Oilers don’t have a black hole that deep. Russell is the worst at being a GF/60 drag, but Emelin-Weber make him look like Karlsson in comparison.

    Desharnais looks to still have some offence and he’ll get reasonable wingers in front of a reasonable Dcorps.

    I bet the Oilers score 2.5+/60 when he’s on the ice and win or tie the possession battle.

  100. JDï™ says:

    Melvis: ended up walking in with Linda Ronstadt

    I suppose that’s better than 2nd runner up for Sunshine Girl of the year…

  101. PhrankLee says:

    JDï™: Depends if ass hair is involved.

    Don’t forget eyeglow.

  102. spoiler says:

    digger50: Rant

    I think this word means exactly what you think it means lol.

  103. N64 says:

    Bohologo: Are you the guy down at the alley saying Smokey, this is not ‘Nam. This is bowling. There are rules?

    Because yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.

    Seriously though! Thanks for pointing out the fine print. But I think the idea mostly stands; BPA only expansion drafting presents limitations, ultimately.

    In line with that can take up to 13D and peddle the excess. Or leverage that with deals not to pick exposed BPA

  104. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record I think Desharnais will be an excellent addition.

    Everyone is underestimating his offence and I think he’ll bring a real scoring dimension to the 3rd line.

    I see a 67-Desharnais-98 line in the not to distant future and think it will score well.

    He is also usually a slight plus relative corsi player and that is a huge upgrade on 36,55 for the 3C spot.

    Here something to chew on.

    Desharnais 335 minutes this year 2.19GF/60

    Desharnais + Emelin 117 min 0.51 GF/60
    Desharnais w/o Emelin 237 min 3.03 GF/60

    3.03 is more than 97 is scoring/60 btw…Desharnais offence might still be there…..

    Maybe Emelin is just the GF/60 black hole?He’s been playing toughs with Weber and goals for go to die when those two are together.

    Check this out:

    MTL centers GF/60with and without Emelin + Weber

    Plekanec 1.51 with; 2.24 without
    Danult 2.43 with; 2.20 without
    Mitchell 1.23 with; 2.05 without
    Galchenyuk 1.59 with; 3.09 without
    Shaw 1.15 with; 2.68 without

    Oilers don’t have a black hole that deep.Russell is the worst at being a GF/60 drag, but Emelin-Weber make him look like Karlsson in comparison.

    Desharnais looks to still have some offence and he’ll get reasonable wingers in front of a reasonable Dcorps.

    I bet the Oilers score 2.5+/60 when he’s on the ice and win or tie the possession battle.

    Good stuff!

  105. Bag of Pucks says:

    Thought experiment: Let’s assume for the sake of this experiment that Chia will trade one of either RNH or Eberle to make room for McDavid and Drai contracts.

    If, assuming no late charge, Nuge and RNH both enter the playoffs with both their seasons officially being subpar, what do you do in the offseason if one of them then lights it up in the playoffs and the other continues their slump through to eventual elimination?

    Do you sell high on the player who lit it up, or keep him assuming the strong playoff as proof of regression to the mean and value for dollar going forward? As as result, you’re selling the other at a discount following both a disappointing regular season AND playoff.

    Or, do you fully commit to regression and keep the long slumper so you can sell high on the player who had the short sample size playoff run of succeess?

    Traditionally, under the OBC, the Oil have always opted for the first option.

  106. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne: The NHL trade market is nothing if not inefficient.

    This is the key to not losing (or “loosing” as the kids without a good spell check might say) your mind trying to figure out why a trade was, or was not made.

  107. fifthcartel says:

    I don’t think RNH goes this summer, I’ve heard they quite like him still. I think Eberle goes for a cheaper RW like Strome and something, although wouldn’t surprise me if it was straight up, Chiarelli has shown he doesn’t really care to give away/lose value in a trade.

  108. Bruce Wayne says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I, personally, have nothing against Deshairnais. Indeed, he is the kind of player I usually like and thnk are undervalued (small, skilled, etc.). The problem is trading a good player signed long term for 20 inconsequential games.

    The evaluation of Davidson as a #6 or #7 defender is what is so off.

  109. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I posted the other night that the move to me looked like a “unicorn move” towards three scoring lines.. riffing off a similar note by LT. NYCoil pointed out that Chia said “two way” in his presser, but that might just be GM smoke. Nice to see more evidence that this strat is possible.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    unca miltie:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    My experienced eye says LA gets in and St. Louis is out. Hope I am wrong and the flames are out..

    I *hate* discounting LAK, but STL has the easiest schedule in the NHL in terms of points% of their remaining opponents.

    EDM has the second easiest……

  111. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Just my opinion, we have done all we can to litigate the BD for DD trade as far as this stage goes.

    DD is here to make a difference in the bottom 6. I want him to grab the 3C role and run with it and free up Nuge to bat higher up the order. If the result of this isn’t unicorns, (3 scoring lines) as spoiler hopes, but it is TWO scoring lines (let’s walk before we run) to me it is a successful move.

    We will have plenty of time in June to re-litigate this trade when we see the other shoe to drop– i.e. what, if any deal gets made with Vegas and who gets picked. We can judge it more fully then.

    As far as this trade is concerned otherwise, it is nothing at all like Hall for Larsson (duh) and if DD can bring more offense (I admit fully I have probably been underrating what he might be able to bring based on his recent history) then it will be okay.

    Did I hope to keep Davidson until at least the expansion draft? yes.
    If he was dealt, did I hope for a good pick, exempt asset or quality forward to protect in the top 7 coming back? Yes.

    Could I live with the deal if DD shores up line 3 and the top two lines can get scoring, then DD does not have to be protected, but re-signs here before July 1 a la Kris Russell? Absolutely.

    Again, welcome, David to the Edmonton fishbowl. Good news is it’s not worse than the Montreal fishbowl. Good luck and I hope you succeed.

    Davey was a good soldier and a great story. Wish him well in Montreal or Vegas or wherever he winds up. Thank you for your time in the organization.

  112. digger50 says:

    spoiler: I think this word means exactly what you think it means lol.

    Yes, unfortunately I could not discuss further as work gets in the way, but enjoyed the feedback.

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ducey:
    I was looking at Mantha. Hopefully he can skate, because he has some impressive stats.

    He leads his team in points. He is 6th in the league for points by a defenseman.

    He leads the OHL in shots by a defenseman with 281. The next closest defenseman has 203. There are only 4 defensemen with more than 180. He has 3 games where he had 10 shots or more. One game he had 12.

    Further, he leads the entire OHL in shots. The next closest player has 262. Alex Debrincat has 242.

    The WHL and QMJHL don’t list shots in their summary, but there is a decent chance he leads the CHL in shots. Incredible.

    It would seem that his team is lousy, and perhaps they simply pass it back to the point for the bomb all the time, but still that is a lot of shots.

    I’m certainly not saying that Mantha could turn into Parayko, but it was at this age that Parayko (who was passed over in the draft his first year of eligibility) blossomed with U of Alaska.

    19 year old year 17pts in 33 games. (.51/gm)
    20 year old year 26pts in 37 games (.70/gm)

    He was another gangly 6’5″ kid who needed to grow into his frame.

    Mantha 19 year old year 25pts in 65 games (0.38/gm)
    Mantha 20 year old year 51 in 58 games (0.88/gm)

    Now Mantha is playing against teenageers and Parayko was playing against young men, but the similarity in size and slow development is interesting.

    Parayko’s knock was skating as was Mantha’s.

    Word is that Mantha worked like a dog at his skating and his shot, and Parayko did the exact same thing.

    Not that I think he can be Parayko.

    No sir.

    Nope.

    *whistles and walks lightly pass the graveyard*

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    106 and 106,

    I once read this blog everyday during a long stint with Doctors without Borders in South Sudan.

    My hat off to you sir.

    Thank you for making the world a better place.

    *strong clapping*

  115. Confused says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    How does Mantha compare against Bear?

  116. Melvis says:

    OK…nuff’ already. Here it is – for the record. I held down Costanza’s gig from about ’73 into the mid 80’s.

    There are 30 of those guys in the bigs – x 4…if one includes all four of the major league sports. They are, in fact, the keepers of the stories and the flame and occasionally, the scribblers on the cave walls.

    Or as Steven Soderbergh once said, there are four basic necessities, not three :

    “Food, clothing, shelter, and story telling”

    And why did I dump it…or piss away the opportunities at millions?

    Because It gets old…because one’s soul, one’s ethical and existential dilemnas get in the way…because I wasn’t producing anything of lasting value.

    I was merely augmenting …riding the coat tails of the princes’ and princesses’ who were producing something of value for the ages.

    And now one hears that stuff.. overhead at the fuckin mall or box store. And I was there for a lot of it. In those studios and those sessions….as luck would have it. Luck…that miserable turd.

    Steve Lukather once said we played on half the stuff on the charts through those years. He wasn’t exaggerating.

    So I went back to school. And now I make pictures and sculpture and landscape design. My long suit, as it turns out. Best part of all – don’t know the meaning of boredom, of ennui, of discontent.

    I like Bryz. “Just a game. Why we haff to get mad. ”

    As an aside, one should consider Anthony Bourdain. The one guy in the entire restaurant business who had the the self-discipline and where with all – to acttually write his way through the business. Of all those who “planned to”.

    We need one or two more in the hockey biz who have the balls to do so. It would save a lot of “wanna be” fly on the wall fantasy and speculation in regard to what’s what and whos’who.

  117. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Melvis,

    Well said. Tip of my cap to you.

  118. unca miltie says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Only an opinion, but I think the blues will be blue knowing their management sees them on the decline. Lost their captain last year and now a strong d-man with no replacements..

  119. Alpine says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I, personally, have nothing against Deshairnais.Indeed, he is the kind of player I usually like and thnk are undervalued (small, skilled, etc.).The problem is trading a good player signed long term for 20 inconsequential games.

    The evaluation of Davidson as a #6 or #7 defender is what is so off.

    It seems far off but to the Oilers and any team with a deep LH side he’s essentially a 6/7. Last season in 50 games he was a positive possession player usually alternating between second and third. In 28 games this year he’s a negative playing almost exclusively third pair. Rookie season probably shouldn’t count but same results as this year in 12 GP.

    It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what he is. I think he’s probably a 5 who can be a 4 with a good partner (Petry). Nurse and Benning are the same quality in addition to being younger. Russell was of similar quality when STL and CBJ correctly put him on the third pairing.

    I think I’d be more bothered losing him if he had provided solid play as Nurse’s injury replacement, and he just didn’t quite do that. Injuries have a fair amount to do with that. For me, he doesn’t have a long enough track of consistently driving play in easy minutes to have that much more value beyond what we returned for him. A mid round pick coming back for him would have had to been flipped anyways for a depth forward anyways.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I posted the other night that the move to me looked like a “unicorn move” towards three scoring lines.. riffing off a similar note by LT.NYCoil pointed out that Chia said “two way” in his presser, but that might just be GM smoke.Nice to see more evidence that this strat is possible.

    Definitely more unicorns in the line up with him.

    He seems to be good at the hockeying part of hockey.

  121. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m certainly not saying that Mantha could turn into Parayko, but it was at this age that Parayko (who was passed over in the draft his first year of eligibility) blossomed with U of Alaska.

    19 year old year 17pts in 33 games. (.51/gm)
    20 year old year 26pts in 37 games (.70/gm)

    He was another gangly 6’5″ kid who needed to grow into his frame.

    Mantha 19 year old year 25pts in 65 games (0.38/gm)
    Mantha 20 year old year51 in 58 games (0.88/gm)

    Now Mantha is playing against teenageers and Parayko was playing against young men, but the similarity in size and slow development is interesting.

    Parayko’s knock was skating as was Mantha’s.

    Word is that Mantha worked like a dog at his skating and his shot, and Parayko did the exact same thing.

    Not that I think he can be Parayko.

    No sir.

    Nope.

    *whistles and walks lightly pass the graveyard*

    Mantha turning out to be something like Parayko would be fantastic but I am tempering expectiations, so I am believing it to be highly unlikely.

    Hoping he is good enough to spend most of next year in the AHL. If he goes to Norfolk for a while thats OK too.

    Its too bad that the CHL advanced stats site is no longer online, there would have been many players like Mantha who did well in their overage season to look at and would be nice to see how many actually made it.

    EDIT: Just to add the NHLE’s ( using http://www.hockeyabstract.com/thoughts/updatedtranslationfactors) for their 19 and 20 year old seasons we get this

    19Y Colton 13 points
    19Y Ryan 10 points

    20Y Colton 25 points
    20Y Ryan 23 points

  122. unca miltie says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    106 and 106,

    I once read this blog everyday during a long stint with Doctors without Borders in South Sudan.

    My hat off to you sir.

    Thank you for making the world a better place.

    *strong clapping*

    Ditto..clap clap

  123. russ99 says:

    digger50:
    Here is why I get upset with Chiarrelli. Rant warning alert

    The Oil are god this year, doing exceptionally well. They are a few pieces away from moving to elite. We can see this. They are also exposed to injury in key positions.

    Peter says “we are not contenders the year”. “We’ll just get some playoff experience” so number one you know the roster needs to improve. Who’s job is to make the improvements?

    Second, if the players coast though playoffs with a lack of compete, don’t complain Peter. You set the tone, stating they are just thereto get some experience.

    You want players to play hard, they want a GM who is all in.

    You spent a million dollars scouting for this deadline and were reportedly in on numerous deals. I find this encouraging. Unfortunately You basically struck out and now have to report you are happy with the team as is. That’s the political side sure.

    Fact is you were unable to substantially improve. You missed or passed on opportunity. I dont think Peter as a bad GM, I just get disappointed when I see the team close and needing a little push to be great.

    Need to get it done Peter, the hard trades, not just the easy to ones. Get us to the next level
    Please.

    I understand the rant and part of me wants to see that too, but there’s also value in evaluating players in a playoff situation to see whether or not you want to keep them.

    So yes it wasn’t go for the Cup or trade away anyone who’s not going to the cup, but the middle is OK too, at least for this season.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I, personally, have nothing against Deshairnais.Indeed, he is the kind of player I usually like and thnk are undervalued (small, skilled, etc.).The problem is trading a good player signed long term for 20 inconsequential games.

    The evaluation of Davidson as a #6 or #7 defender is what is so off.

    The 20 games may not be inconsequential if Desharnais shows well and they hire him again next year for $1.25 or so.

    I’m on record as saying I liked the player and the cost was more than I would have wanted to pay.

    I think the Oilers want their Dmen to either have a big skating/offensive dimension to their game like Klef or Sekera or play rough and strong Larsson or Nurse.

    Davidson was kinda the mushy middle and while he might be the 3rd or 4th best LHD on the team today, they didn’t see him being that in the near future.

    I thought he’d make an excellent 7D next year and we all know your 7D usually plays more than everyone except your top 7 Forwards, so its an important spot.

    I understand why Peter made the trade, but wish he had paid less.

  125. Georges says:

    Melvis:
    Don’t get over excited about minor trades. This year it’s a first round playoff loss. Maybe, with luck we go two. Next year, two…maybe three. In three years we’ll be crapping our drawers game 7 in the finals. Moar patience…but I’m willin’.

    Willin’ has something to do with Little Feet and Bonnie Rait. In ’75, she was a 20 feet from stardom type…and showed up for a Richie Hayward birthday/kitchen party somewhere in the Hollywood Hills. It was a hell of a night. Lowell George was still alive. There were many others of note in the house, and somehow…I don’t remember the circumstances – i ended up walking in with Linda Ronstadt – having done a few dates with her, Jackson Browne and the Eagles.

    Now, one weeps at life’s weird turns and circumstance. It starts to make sense in one’s third act.

    So like I said, relax. We love the Oilers, but just a game.

    This reads so nicely.

    Every once in a while in the midst of talk of CF% and chip and chase, someone leaves poetry.

    I consider this to be also one of life’s weird turns and circumstance.

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Mantha turning out to be something like Parayko would be fantastic but I am tempering expectiations, so I am believing it to be highly unlikely.

    Hoping he is good enough to spend most of next year in the AHL.If he goes to Norfolk for a while thats OK too.

    Its too bad that the CHL advanced stats site is no longer online, there would have been many players like Mantha who did well in their overage season to look at and would be nice to see how many actually made it.

    I SAID CLEARLY THAT I’M NOT SAYING HE CAN BE PARAYKO!!!

    .
    ,
    ,.
    .
    NO SIR!!

    NOT SAYING IT!!!

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: This reads so nicely.

    Every once in a while in the midst of talk of CF% and chip and chase, someone leaves poetry.

    I consider this to be also one of life’s weird turns and circumstance.

    I want to come back as Melvis in my next life.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    unca miltie:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Only an opinion, but I think the blues will be blue knowing their management sees them on the decline. Lost their captain last year and now a strong d-man with no replacements..

    That’s true, but Shattenkirk’s TOI was behind Pietrangelo and Parayko (their other two big RHD) and 4th among Dmen.

    Edmunson is RH and has taken Shatts spot as 3RD and Gunnarson is playing again, this time 2nd pair with Parayko.

    They’ve got some depth on D.

    They lost a good one, but they have good ones left.

    We’ll see.

    I think it will be really close.

  129. Thor762 says:

    Something else to consider with the Vegas expansion draft is that Chiarelli drafted McPhee’s kid this past year, when no other team stepped up to do the same. This even before he became the Vegas GM. I think it is entirely possible that McPhee does Chiarelli a solid and they come to a favorable agreement.

    A sort of “you scratched my back, so I’ll scratch yours”.

  130. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Mantha turning out to be something like Parayko would be fantastic but I am tempering expectiations, so I am believing it to be highly unlikely.

    Hoping he is good enough to spend most of next year in the AHL.If he goes to Norfolk for a while thats OK too.

    Its too bad that the CHL advanced stats site is no longer online, there would have been many players like Mantha who did well in their overage season to look at and would be nice to see how many actually made it.

    EDIT: Just to add the NHLE’s ( using http://www.hockeyabstract.com/thoughts/updatedtranslationfactors) for their 19 and 20 year old seasons we get this

    19Y Colton 13 points
    19Y Ryan 10 points

    20Y Colton 25 points
    20Y Ryan 23 points

    STOP SAYING HE CAN BE PARAYKO!!!

    IMMA TELLING LT ON YOU

  131. Bruce Wayne says:

    Let’s be honest, a whole lot of things have to go right with Mantha for him to turn out as good as Davidson.

    It seems strange to be happy about Mantha at the same time as at ease with the loss of Davidson.

    But then I think Davidson is better than Nurse (right now), and not simply because of decision making. Nurse is a poor passer, with a weak shot, and no offensive instincts.

  132. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: STOP SAYING HE CAN BE PARAYKO!!!

    IMMA TELLING LT ON YOU

    YEAH?

    WELL IM TELLING LT YOU SAID MANTHA WAS LEFT HANDED!

  133. Bruce Wayne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The 20 games may not be inconsequential if Desharnais shows well and they hire him again next year for $1.25 or so.

    I’m on record as saying I liked the player and the cost was more than I would have wanted to pay.

    I think the Oilers want their Dmen to either have a big skating/offensive dimension to their game like Klef or Sekera or play rough and strong Larsson or Nurse.

    Davidson was kinda the mushy middle and while he might be the 3rd or 4th best LHD on the team today, they didn’t see him being that in the near future.

    I thought he’d make an excellent 7D next year and we all know your 7D usually plays more than everyone except your top 7 Forwards, so its an important spot.

    I understand why Peter made the trade, but wish he had paid less.

    If Desharnais plays well enough to justify the cost then he is going to cost more than 1.25 M.

    Guys like him are available off of waivers or try-out contracts every year. Is he better than Versteeg or Parenteau? If he is, the cost is more than 1.25 million to sign him. If he isn’t , why did you trade Davidson for him?

  134. Melvis says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I was thinking of you and a pin hole camera concocted out of a twenty foot Uhaul at one one end of Rogers – taking really long exposures of an Oilers practice. Sorta of like Vera Lutter in color.

    (Looch stays in focus for two hours..lol)

    And of course, there’s a market among the dudes with double height wall space and backyard double garage man caves and work spaces for big ass prints.

  135. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s true, but Shattenkirk’s TOI was behind Pietrangelo and Parayko (their other two big RHD) and 4th among Dmen.

    Edmunson is RH and has taken Shatts spot as 3RD and Gunnarson is playing again, this time 2nd pair with Parayko.

    They’ve got some depth on D.

    They lost a good one, but they have good ones left.

    We’ll see.

    I think it will be really close.

    Edmundson’s LH, but they called up Jordan Schmaltz, their 2012 1st round pick who is a RHD.

    His two AHL seasons look pretty good too:

    15-16: 71 games 36 points 0.5ppg
    16–17: 42 games 25 points 0.59 ppg

    He’s also the last 2012 1st round pick to play in the NHL, but a RHD who put up solid numbers in the AHL and is only 23 seems like a possible very valuable player.

  136. JDï™ says:

    Thor762: A sort of “you scratched my back, so I’ll scratch yours”.

    So McPhee gets an ELC?

  137. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Fuck that noise. You’re going to buy me a beer at a home game in the near future…then I’ m going to buy you two…and a Nicky burger for allt he work you do. JFC.

  138. spoiler says:

    Melvis,

    Beauty post.

  139. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: YEAH?

    WELL IM TELLING LT YOU SAID MANTHA WAS LEFT HANDED!

    It is only a matter of time before that happens.

  140. bendelson says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Fuck that noise. You’re going to buy me a beer at a home game in the near future…then I’ m going to buy you two…and a Nicky burger for allt he work you do. JFC.

    Fair warning Melvis… It’s only a matter of time before the Irish Whiskey appears in full force.
    Best of luck.

  141. Thor762 says:

    JDï™,
    Graham McPhee is committed to Boston College. So no worries of an ELC needed immediately.

    I think it’s more a possibility that Chiarelli is in the good books with McPhee. This article says he teared up when his son was drafted. As a soon to be father myself, were it me, I can only imagine I’d deal with the guy that did that for my kid favorably. At least once anyhow.

    http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2016/06/25/an-emotional-george-mcphee-tears-up-after-son-graham-gets-drafted-by-edmonton-oilers/

  142. Melvis says:

    spoiler,

    Did you study film formally? I was wondering…fully enmeshed in Ugetsu last night for about the fourth or fifth time.

    Good art – and hockey – reveals itself…continues to reveal itself in different ways in different light, on different walls, and places and screens over the years.

  143. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    You guys are overthinking Mcphee’s position.He should take the best player available from every team within the constraints of the draft rules (at least 20 have to have contracts, so only 10 guys on RFA contracts), ideally taking 30 NHL quality players.Then he should trade the excess to the highest bidder to avoid losing these players on waivers.

    If you run the draft simulator at cap friendly you’ll see that the Las Vegas team could actually have excellent depth, with a fourth line that is better than most teams third lines.The problem is they won’t have any top flight players.If they play their cards right they should have a lot of surplus value to get future draft picks without actually hurting their on ice product because their 15th best player will be the best 15th best player in the entire league.

    With all the 2nd pair Dmen LGK will have to choose from its likely they could ice a better Dcorps than 10+ teams.

    They’ll also have reasonable goalering.

    Those two are the key to winning and they probably don’t finish last in the WC.

    Maybe not even 2nd worst.

    If I’m McPhee I take the best F’s I can, then all Dmen and mores G than I need and sell them back to teams.

    Hold my own mini-dispersal draft.

    McPhee has soooooo many ways to do this.

    Fun.

  144. blainer says:

    I was really hoping for more from Chia at the deadline.

    That said I do think DD may come in like Maroon did last year. Playing on a team with Connor helps me thinks.

    I also think Chia is counting on JP coming back up for playoffs or maybe even before. If that is to happen JP needs to get going down there. I was hoping he would be at least a PPG by now. Some road left but would love to see him have three or four multi point games in a row.

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Confused:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    How does Mantha compare against Bear?

    Bear is one year younger than Mantha.

    He is also 6′ shorter.

    67pts in 61gm – 1.07pts/gm

    it’s important to note that Seattle is a good team and score much more than Niagara ands % of team offence is important.

    Will dig deeper when I get off my phone

  146. spoiler says:

    Has LT posted his March expectations yet? Did I miss them? Do they come with the first game, I can’t remember.

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: YEAH?

    WELL IM TELLING LT YOU SAID MANTHA WAS LEFT HANDED!

    *shakes fist*

    *drops phone*

  148. Melvis says:

    bendelson,

    Irish whiskey. I love the stuff, but…

    My maternal great grandfather, and grandmother minded the still in the shed behind the barn on the farm, southeast of Toon Town…seven miles north of Prudhomme…where I first laced them on in childhood.

    Once, they made the mistake of feeding the mash to the pigs…

    Apparently, a whole lot of harmony going on into the wee hours. Like this blog some nights;-)

  149. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    It seems strange to be happy about Mantha at the same time as at ease with the loss of Davidson

    This makes no sense.

    The are individual moves and reviewed on their own merit.

    Peter signed a RHD, position of weakness in the org, who has promise. This is good.

    Why juxtapose it with Davidson?

    This reminds me of RiversQ shitting on the Benning signing because Chiarelli/K.Gretzky drafted him in the first place so he must be awful.

  150. Death By Misadventure says:

    Lt,

    If you do not write the definitive book of the post glory days Oilers, I will be gravely disappointed. I spend about 15 minutes per day reading your pros and the comments and I would definitely buy this book or 4 if you write it. Thanks for waking up ever day and writing about this team, this city, and your own life experience that connects as all.

    Start writing this book, I will buy it , even though I know how it turns out.

  151. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce Wayne: If Desharnais plays well enough to justify the cost then he is going to cost more than 1.25 M.

    Guys like him are available off of waivers or try-out contracts every year.Is he better than Versteeg or Parenteau?If he is, the cost is more than 1.25 million to sign him.If he isn’t , why did you trade Davidson for him?

    I didn’t trade Davidson for him.

    The other players you mentioned are 3rd/4th wingers who are a dime a dozen.

    C’s who can saw off at 3C and bring some offense, much less so.

  152. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If I’m McPhee I take the best F’s I can, then all Dmen and mores G than I need and sell them back to teams.
    Hold my own mini-dispersal draft.
    McPhee has soooooo many ways to do this

    Yes. He can build from the back end and collect assets to develop and upgrade.

    And he can pocket extra assets to switch a selection and still auction what he takes. Lots of fungible assets. No cap dumps that day

  153. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: *shakes fist*

    *drops phone*

    SURE. BLAME THE PHONE.

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    fifthcartel: Edmundson’s LH, but they called up Jordan Schmaltz, their 2012 1st round pick who is a RHD.

    His two AHL seasons look pretty good too:

    15-16: 71 games 36 points 0.5ppg
    16–17: 42 games 25 points 0.59 ppg

    He’s also the last 2012 1st round pick to play in the NHL, but a RHD who put up solid numbers in the AHL and is only 23 seems like a possible very valuable player.

    You doubt my knowledge of LH/RH?????

    Heathen!!

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130643&encode=TRUE

    Schmaltz is RH and looks like the goods.

    Rookie, but the goods.

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Fuck that noise. You’re going to buy me a beer at a home game in the near future…then I’ m going to buy you two…and a Nicky burger for allt he work you do. JFC.

    Done and goddam done.

    I’ll try not to bug the shit out you will a million questions.

  156. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: It is only a matter of time before that happens.

    Don’t you start with me!

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    bendelson,

    Irish whiskey. I love the stuff, but…

    My maternal great grandfather, and grandmother minded the still in the shed behind the barn on the farm, southeast of Toon Town…seven miles north of Prudhomme…where I first laced them on in childhood.

    Once, they made the mistake of feeding the mash to the pigs…

    Apparently, a whole lot of harmony going on into the wee hours. Like this blog some nights;-)

    awesome

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    N64: Yes. He can build from the back end and collect assets to develop and upgrade.

    And he can pocket extra assets to switch a selection and still auction what he takes. Lots of fungible assets. No cap dumps that day

    He can probably trade for better F’s with the extra D he’ll get than in the expansion draft.

  159. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Melvis:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I was thinking of you and a pin hole camera concocted out of a twenty foot Uhaul at one one end of Rogers –taking really long exposures of an Oilers practice. Sorta of like Vera Lutter in color.

    (Looch stays in focus for two hours..lol)

    And of course, there’s a market among the dudes with double height wallspace and backyarddouble garage man caves and work spaces for big ass prints.

    Ha ha. McDavid would never appear in a pinhole exposure that long. Picturing this image now.

  160. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne: If Desharnais plays well enough to justify the cost then he is going to cost more than 1.25 M.

    Just wait to see what he gets paid when he wins the Conn Smythe!!!
    Woodguy said it is a left wing lock to happen!

  161. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    OK…Game on. I’m looking for tickets for this homestand. I’ll let you know. Then ask me me no questions, and I’ll tell you no lies.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid at the max contract?

    I’m sorry but there is no player in the league, or in the history of cap era, that can take up a fifth of the team’s available salary – not if that team wants to win a championship. The organization understands this and McDavid, who wants to win, understands this. I’m hopeful the contract will come in at a cap hit under $10M/year but understand if it has to be a million higher to give him the highest cap hit in the league (although I could argue against that as the top cap hits did not get those on their 2nd contracts).

  163. spoiler says:

    Melvis:
    spoiler,

    Did you study film formally? I was wondering…fully enmeshed in Ugetsu last night for about the fourth or fifthtime.

    Good art – and hockey –reveals itself…continues to reveal itselfin different waysin different light, on different walls, and places and screens over the years.

    That’s such an important observation. The test of time is one of the biggest tests for me, especially looking at films… What is popular can often be not-Art. Art can also be hidden or unintended… and needs change to reveal itself.

    As for me, I took a couple of Int D classes at the U of A, which were Film Studies, but nothing really formal. Got into it much later, around about 2000-01, and read as much as I could and watched and wrote. My life kind of got put on pause for two years so I had the time.

    One of my philosophies is that Art, as opposed to art or artisanship, means you’ve added or annotated on what has come before. You’ve provided an innovation the future can use. Small “a” art means you’ve exhibited competence or even mastery of what has come before, but it’s nothing new. Still worthwhile obviously, especially masterful craftsmanship.

    Art also usually means taking risks and likely failing more often than not, much like a home run hitter. We should celebrate the interesting, risk-taking failures more than we do competent formula money-makers, because we’re more likely to see more home runs and push the Art forward.

    Cinema is kind of neat because it is so young as an Art. I find that very attractive. It is so much more difficult to innovate as a painter or novelist or musician.

    Ugetsu?

    It is one of the most important movies ever made and should be seen by everyone.

    Boat, lake, inky fog, the strokes of the pots…

    Christ, now I desperately want to watch it again. I think it must be ten years since I’ve seen it.

  164. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He can probably trade for better F’s with the extra D he’ll get than in the expansion draft.

    Yes. And that sets baseline price for anyone wanting him to not touch specific D. Don’t touch deals have to increase the certainty of his total value a month out.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    OK…Game on. I’m looking for tickets for this homestand. I’ll let you know.Then ask me me no questions, and I’ll tell you no lies.

    Perfect

  166. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You doubt my knowledge of LH/RH?????

    Heathen!!

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130643&encode=TRUE

    Schmaltz is RH and looks like the goods.

    Rookie, but the goods.

    If you watch St Louis you’ll know Edmonson shoots left.

  167. who says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Let’s be honest, a whole lot of things have to go right with Mantha for him to turn out as good as Davidson.

    It seems strange to be happy about Mantha at the same time as at ease with the loss of Davidson.

    But then I think Davidson is better than Nurse (right now), and not simply because of decision making.Nurse is a poor passer, with a weak shot, and no offensive instincts.

    But Nurse is a great skater (Davidson is not) in a big, aggressive body. His passing and shooting can improve, Davidsons skating will not.

  168. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Not to pile on, but:

    https://www.nhl.com/video/edmundsons-first-career-goal/t-277350912/c-42936903

    There’s slo-mo too… for your phone. 😉

  169. Bank Shot says:

    who: But Nurse is a great skater (Davidson is not) in a big, aggressive body. His passing and shooting can improve, Davidsons skating will not.

    Exactly.

    Plus,
    Nurse has a higher PPG than Davidson. Why criticize the offence of one when they both aren’t strong in that area?

    I think in 2-3 years Nurse is well ahead of Davidson.

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