CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS?

When I came into hockey as a fan, the Toronto Maple Leafs were on my television every hockey night. They had old guys on defense, and the adjectives people used to describe them were decidedly unattractive. Grizzled, hard-nosed, dependable, reliable. Not sexy at all. Why not play like Bobby Orr? Man, that was the good stuff. On Toronto, I liked Jim McKenny. My Dad didn’t think much of McKenny, but did like Jim Dorey, even though he was young. For those not old enough to remember, McKenny was a heartthrob hockey player (my sister-in-law still blushes when I bring his name up) but  Dorey was a half bubble off plumb. He was an early version of Behn Wilson. For those who don’t remember Behn Wilson, well, they don’t make them like that anymore. Imagine a good defenseman with a wire loose and a coach who enjoys mayhem.

I have been looking at, talking about, yelling at, pleading with and giving up on defensemen for more than 50 years. And slowly, like sands through the hourglass, I have come to a conclusion about defensemen. When you have a choice, look for grizzled, hard-nosed, dependable, reliable. Not sexy at all. I think Bobby Orr ruined me for the position.

NOT THE ONLY ONE

In the completion of our post-deadline look at the Oilers depth chart at the pro level, we will look at left defense, right defense and the goalies.

LEFT DEFENSE (8)

  • Oscar Klefbom. His emergence this year with the puck on his stick has been nothing short of fantastic. I think being paired with Justin Schultz may have retarded his offensive game, but with Larsson he can wheel and that appears to be his real strength. He is a bona fide two-way NHL player, and should be a bargain for the rest of the decade. DFF v. Elite: 44.9 percent; DFF Rel Comp -1.3 percent; 34 percent of his 5×5 time is against elites. 
  • Andrej Sekera. He could be listed first but I decided to do the NHL D like pairs. Calm veteran who can pass or carry and he is an absolute demon in extra time. The one thing I wonder is this: What if he played an entire season with a defenseman as good as he is? Signed through 2021 summer so we are going to see some erosion. DFF v. Elite: 45.7 percent; DFF Rel Comp -0.4 percent; 37 percent of his 5×5 time is against elites. 
  • Darnell Nurse. With Brandon Davidson gone, Nurse will settle in on the third pairing and look to continue what was a solid season of maturation. He is not playing the tough competition (both Sekera and Klefbom play significant tough minutes) but has improved a lot season over season. DFF v. Elite: 48 percent; DFF Rel Comp 3.2 percent; 25 percent of his 5×5 time is against elites. 
  • Andrew Ference. The final days of his last NHL season are winding down.
  • Griffin Reinhart. In the final year of his entry-level deal, and it will be a crossroads summer. Reinhart starts slowly every year and that may be due to conditioning. I expect the Oilers will keep tabs on him this summer and one assumes GR doesn’t want the minor leagues any more. He could also be in Vegas by Canada Day. Estimated AHL 5×5 TOI: 16:06. Source
  • David Musil. Musil is another good candidate for Las Vegas and I hope he gets the chance to compete there this fall. It’s easy to regard him as an NP but he can play. Musil needs a break for sure, but maybe expansion is it. If he could catch on as 7D somewhere and work his way up? Well hell, everyone has guys like that in their system. Estimated AHL 5×5 TOI: 16:59.
  • Mark Fraser. He is a UFA this summer and it makes as much sense to bring him back next season as it did this time around—so it could happen. Estimated AHL 5×5 TOI: 12:11.
  • Ben Betker. He is fairly mobile for a giant and the scouting reports I read early this season were positive. Miles to go and we may never see him here in Edmonton but he is working hard and making progress. Estimated AHL 5×5 TOI: 13:19.
  • Likely to return: Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart, Ben Betker
  • Too soon to know:
  • Likely to go: David Musil, Andrew Ference, Mark Fraser
  • Summary: Sekera the veteran is a rock, and two first-round picks in Klefbom and Nurse maturing and taking on more of the load. The Davidson trade may open up an opportunity for Reinhart this fall.
  • Summer Headlines: Klefbom receives votes for Byng and Norris; Nurse’s year over year progress is impressive; Sekera gets no headlines; Reinhart trains like a demon and arrives in camp fearsome; Andrew Ference retires with a Stanley Cup ring and an idea about how he wants to change the world.

RIGHT DEFENSE (7)

  • Adam Larsson. He has adapted quickly and his game is a nice fit for the Oilers. Larsson has helped calm down his pairing and I think his defensive acumen allows Klefbom to jump up with the puck and try his luck. The Swedish pairing is settling in, hopefully for a long run. DFF v. Elite: 46.2 percent; DFF Rel Comp -0.5 percent; 35 percent of his 5×5 time is against elites.
  • LD Kris Russell. Each and every day produces a howling wind across twitter about Russell, who goes about his business and answers every bell required (although he missed practice today). I think the coach really likes him and I also think the general manager may not be able to afford him. We are going to talk about this a lot over the summer. He is UFA. DFF v. Elite: 46.6 percent; DFF Rel Comp -0.7 percent; 36 percent of his 5×5 time is against elites.
  • Matt Benning. A tremendous addition by Peter Chiarelli, if you counted this as the 2014 second rounder it would still be a bargain. A perfect fit signed while falling down the elevator shaft. Lordy what a stroke of good fortune. No wonder the Bruins are pissed. DFF v. Elite: 48.3 percent; DFF Rel Comp 2.7 percent; 34 percent of his 5×5 time is against elites.
  • Eric Gryba. Big man is a UFA and someone the coach values as a 7D. We often dismiss the role as a part-time type, but 7D is basically a third pairing guy and will probably play 50+ games a year via injury, slumps, et cetera. Hard-nosed blue. DFF v. Elite: 47.8 percent; DFF Rel Comp 1.5 percent; 28 percent of his 5×5 time is against elites.
  • LD Jordan Oesterle. The Davidson trade offers a slight opening for Oesterle, who may be the first recall if there is an injury. That is a big deal (No. 8D) and with his speed, there is a chance this player grabs the opportunity and runs with it. He is UFA this summer, but as is the case with Tyler Pitlick, I think Edmonton probably has interest in retaining him. Estimated AHL 5×5 TOI: 17:24.
  • LD Dillon Simpson. He got into his first NHL games this year, looked good and I suspect he is probably just behind Reinhart and Oesterle on the recall list. He is RFA and my guess is that the Oilers sign him and have Simpson in a role similar to the one he has now. Estimated AHL 5×5 TOI: 13:50.
  • Mark Fayne. One of dozens of NHL players who are still drawing their big league salaries while playing in the minors. Edmonton would need to lose (I think) at least two defensemen for him to be considered, and both of them would have to be righties. He may be bought out if Edmonton cannot trade him. Estimated AHL 5×5 TOI: 16:37.
  • Likely to return: Adam Larsson, Matt Benning, Dillon Simpson
  • Too soon to know: Kris Russell, Eric Gryba, Jordan Oesterle
  • Likely to go: Mark Fayne
  • Summary: The Oilers three regular RHD this season were all procured after the end of the 2015-16 season. All three men play more than 33 percent of their 5×5 icetime against elites, and all three men boast a DFF percentage 5×5 that is -1.0 or better.
  • Summer Headlines: Larsson’s solid year has Oilers fans impressed; Benning receives votes for the Calder Trophy; Kris Russell’s ask is too much for the Oilers, so Flames swoop in and sign him long term; Mark Fayne is bought out.

Photo by Mark Williams, all rights reserved

GOALIE

  • Cam Talbot. If you sat down and wrote a script for his success, it wouldn’t look any better than this season. He has a .920 save percentage and is a workhorse to boot. The Oilers MVP is a two man race and Talbot is deserving of the honor (as is McDavid). Maybe they can cut the trophy in half.
  • Laurent Brossoit. It has been a tough season in some ways, but his AHL time was consistent with his career—save three poor games around Christmas. The Oilers did talk goalie at the deadline (see Elliott’s 30 Thoughts), but held back their water and now the youngster gets a window of opportunity. Poised to be an inexpensive backup next season, RFA 2018.
  • Jonas Gustavsson. It was a curious signing and it has been an alarming experience. Gustavsson had an .878SP in the NHL and is now .901 in the AHL. Both numbers are shy. He is UFA this summer.
  • Nick Ellis. Another college signing who has done very well in year one with the Oilers, his .924 SP ranks him No. 3 among AHL goalies. One more year before RFA, if he continues to shoot lights out we must begin talking about him as competition for Brossoit.
  • Eetu Laurikainen. He is RFA after the season and hasn’t played in a long time. I doubt we see him in North America next season.
  • Likely to return: Cam Talbot, Laurent Brossoit, Nick Ellis
  • Too soon to know:
  • Likely to go: Jonas Gustavsson, Eetu Laurikainen
  • Summary: Cam Talbot. Beginning, middle, end. What a year! Laurent Brossoit had some wobble in the same season Nick Ellis emerged as a bona fide prospect.
  • Summer Headlines: Cam Talbot receives Vezina votes; the Oilers draft a quality goalie prospect; Nick Ellis gets some love as a possible future solution in net.

FORWARD MARCH

One thing that came out of PCs media avail was confirmation that the back end has been shored up handsomely. If you look at the current state of the forwards in Edmonton’s system, it is reasonable to expect a lot of college signings and draft picks to be forwards.

If we are honest, this is close to a crisis. Top amateur prospect Tyler Benson has some real issues two winters in a row, and that is a concern for this young man and the organization. I sincerely hope he can overcome the difficulties and his two winter injuries are not related, but counting on him to have a healthy career is probably a bad idea at this point in time.

Among the pro forwards who are under 24 as of last fall, Connor McDavid is all world, Leon Draisaitl is setting the woods on fire, and Jesse Puljujarvi should have a bright future. After that? Drake Caggiula, Anton Slepyshev and Jujhar Khaira, three interesting names but not a one of them is certain to move the needle offensively in the NHL.

At the AHL level, most of the under 24 set doesn’t play much. Kyle Platzer and Greg Chase (both 21) would best be described as fringe players, the organization isn’t investing much playing time and that is a tell. Khaira and Slepyshev (both 22) did receive real playing time and should be considered solid NHL prospects, but after that we are looking at Patrick Russell, Henrik Samuelsson and Braden Christoffer in the under 24 set.

Aapeli Rasanen is worth mentioning but is years away from turning pro. I suspect we will see a strong push to procure amateur forwards into the Oilers system this spring and summer, via free agency and the draft. I also think young Ryan Mantha may be the last defensive addition for some time.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, TSN1260 beginning at 10. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouth Sports. Tweaks for trade deadline shows, did Canadian teams do enough, Argos publicity machine not effective.
  • Eric Fawcett, Press Basketball. We will talk about the Raptors performance after the deadline and NCAA Final Four preview some of the big name teams (and little ones) who might make a splash.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Did the Oilers do enough?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Could Desharnais be the answer long term at 3C?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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141 Responses to "CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS?"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    I like this break after the trade deadline. Let Desharnais get here and have a couple practices.

  2. nvan97 says:

    It’s a strange feeling to project the summer for this team and not trying to imagine the big free agent that they might be able to sign. There’s no wishful thinking in those terms at this point. Sure they could use a #4 dman for the right side, and a backup goalie and some scoring depth but realistically none of those things should be that difficult to fulfill. There’s no need for the 2nd line C, or top pairing dman or starting goalie, it’s very strange.

  3. dustrock says:

    First we got “Even in the Quietest Moments”, and now “Crisis? What Crisis?”

    My parents were big Supertramp fans so I grew up listening to them, Cat Stevens, Fleetwood Mac, Neil Young. Good stuff.

    2 favorites from this album are “Sister Moonshine” and “A Soapbox Opera”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCBX6J5VUso

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJwMrUM-0N0&index=1&list=PL5fY0etwvOIeDw1W4OlhoN0Gj46uIpSL-

  4. fifthcartel says:

    I’m curious to see how Ryan Hamilton and Taylor Beck are developing as prospects. They’re racking up points and receiving tonnes of ice time so I can only assume these are young prospects in their early twenties. As long as they’re in the system the Oilers should be ok!

  5. Lloyd B. says:

    leadfarmer:
    I like this break after the trade deadline.Let Desharnais get here and have a couple practices.

    It would be OK if they hadn’t the All star break, then the week off then another 3 days off. Now this long break. Rust has not been their friend.

    All these extended breaks after playing what seems like every other day since the beginning of the year. Weird schedule.

  6. Ducey says:

    Whats up with Oesterle and Simpson listed as RHD?

    As far as the forwards go, it would be nice to have more prospects there, but the reality is that with the Cap now, there are multiple options on the UFA market that are cheap and can be effective.

    Guys like Maroon, or even Eric Staal, are increasingly becoming an option.

  7. Oddspell says:

    fifthcartel:
    …Taylor Beck… As long as they’re in the system the Oilers should be ok!

    I have some bad (good) news for you.

  8. dustrock says:

    The other thing with Benson is that you don’t get to take a shift off in the bigs. Players are stronger and faster and heavier.

    He plays a great game, I’m just not sure his body is willing.

    I honestly don’t mind looking at overagers, honestly, I get that we want players to be ready to go or close to pro at age 17/18, but that’s certainly not the case in other pro sports, except for the very elite.

    Why not try a home run pick on a later pick who might have some NHL deficiencies (“size”) but looks to have a lot of skill?

  9. Georges says:

    Among the pro forwards who are under 24 as of last fall, Connor McDavid is all world, Leon Draisaitl is setting the woods on fire, and Jesse Puljujarvi should have a bright future. After that? Drake Caggiula, Anton Slepyshev and Jujhar Khaira, three interesting names but not a one of them is certain to move the needle offensively in the NHL.

    Good point, LT.

    Can any or all of Drake, Slep, and Khaira score 10 goals for us at 5v5?

    If they can’t, we need to find other players in the lineup who can.

    And if they can’t score 10 goals at 5v5, what exactly will these 3 young forwards be doing?

  10. speeds says:

    NHL teams with easiest remaining schedule (by opponents' points pct.): STL .482, EDM .529, DET .545, ARI .549, MIN .549, CHI .550 https://t.co/BqtmQ1SbY9— Bob Waterman (@esbbob) March 3, 2017

  11. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!: I think you are being a little alarmist however with the crisis bit

    – Drai and MacD are under 21 and bonafide. Nurse as 3LHD is great. Benning great.

    – That’s 4 roster spots right there from development/draft in last 36 months. No teams have a boat-load of guys waiting in AHL that are so good they are blocked by NHL players. Your reaching IMO

    – Graduate 1 AHL next year (pool-party), continue to develop another AHL’er (Griff, with more bats), make 1 roster trade upgrade, sign a FA, dump bad contracts, don’t resign under-performers, have your core grow together, draft well, sign 1 good college prospect: that’s what good teams do year over year. Rinse Repeat.

  12. npanciroli says:

    “Summary: The Oilers three regular RHD this season were all procured after the end of the 2015-16 season. All three men play more than 33 percent of their 5×5 icetime against elites, and all three men boast a DFF percentage 5×5 that is -1.0 or better.”

    Chiarelli did an incredible job shoring up the defence.

    “Summer Headlines: Larsson’s solid year has Oilers fans impressed; Benning receives votes for the Calder Trophy; Kris Russell’s ask is too much for the Oilers, so Flames swoop in and sign him long term;”

    What dreams are made of.

  13. npanciroli says:

    9 hour layover in Seattle today, would have been a perfect trade deadline day!

  14. N64 says:

    “Griffin Reinhart. In the final year of his entry-level deal, and it will be a crossroads summer. Reinhart starts slowly every year and that may be due to conditioning.”

    Some games missed have been due to back. So some of his slow starts may be back related. The issue could be getting the right conditioning not failure to get conditioning. His Dad’s chronic back issues retired him at 30 and almost retired him at 24. At least there is more help now.

    http://canuckslegends.blogspot.ca/2006/05/paul-reinhart.html

    “I sincerely hope [Benson] can overcome the difficulties and his two winter injuries are not related”

    Strongly suspect they are related:

    http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/dr-william-meyers-gets-right-to-the-core-of-athletes-injuries-120215

    Benson’s issues are far more serious and he needs the best help that can be found to have a career. But Reinhart also needs the best possible advise to maximize his career.

  15. fifthcartel says:

    Reinhart’s waiver situation makes things interesting. Capfriendly has him waiver eligible next year so the Oilers would have to keep him up or waive him in order to get him to Bakersfield. There’s already 3 guaranteed LHD on the roster and I doubt he plays over Benning at this point.

    The Oilers would probably best to let Vegas take him or move him for a forward prospect.

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standing this morning using points percentage.Shown as “games over .500” to see spreads.8th place set to 0 games.

    MIN 21
    CHI 17
    SJS 15
    EDM 7
    ANA 6
    NSH 4
    CGY 3
    STL 0
    ————–
    LAK -1
    WPG -7
    DAL -9
    VAN -9
    ARI -17
    COL -30

    LAK goes from -3 to -1 as soon as I fade them. Standard. Imma gonna hold firm and still pick STL to finish in the post-season.

    WC games tonight:

    ARI at CAR – whatever
    STL at WPG – Go Blues!! *clap,clap*
    NYI at CHI – NYI in a fight, but played last night and CHI is steamrolling
    DET at CGY – Go DET! We want DET to beat CGY soundly about the head and genital regions
    TOR at ANA – TOR on 2nd of B2B in 3 in 4 Cali trip. Almost no chance they win. Damn.

    Some interesting viewing for sure, or at least games worth keeping tabs on.

    I hope Carlyle plays Bieksa *spits* 25 minutes and he goes -4

  17. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Reinhart trains like a demon and arrives in camp fearsome

    So expect the same tripe we heard last 2 summers from the rights holders which turned out not to be even being close to true.

  18. Georges says:

    A couple of days ago, some of us had a discussion around faceoffs.

    I posted that for teams in 2016-17, the correlation between SH FOW% and PK% was .091. This shows there’s no relationship between winning faceoffs and killing penalties.

    WG posted a tweet from Tyler Dellow that suggested something different:

    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/836447956609941504

    Dellow’s chart shows every team (with weird exceptions) puts up a lower CA60 when it wins the first faceoff than when it loses the first faceoff.

    Lower CA60 is associated with lower GA60, so, presumably, each team’s PK does better when it wins the first faceoff than when it loses the first faceoff. It’s plausible that this holds for other SH faceoffs, not just the first.

    So we have these two seemingly contradictory facts:

    1) there is no relationship between winning faceoffs and killing penalties
    2) teams do better at killing penalties when they win the first faceoff

    How is this possible?

    Winning a SH faceoff on the PK means (most likely) winning possession and clearing the zone. This limits the amount of penalty time the opposing PP unit has to generate CA events, or, equivalently, creates a stretch of penalty time with zero CA events. All other things being equal, winning a SH faceoff improves your ability to kill a penalty.

    According to Dellow’s chart, the average NHL team does about 17 shot attempts better on CA60 on average when it wins the first faceoff. The standard deviation for CA60 in SH situations is about 8. So the difference between winning and losing a single faceoff is worth 2 standard deviations in CA60 performance. That’s big.

    Now with one faceoff, the outcome is binary: you win or you lose. Your expectation is either the bar on Dellow’s chart that wins or the bar on the chart that loses. With one faceoff, you experience the full difference between the two bars, which is on average 17 shot attempts.

    But when you zoom out and look at all the SH faceoffs teams take, the effect of winning faceoffs diminishes. Teams don’t win or lose 100% of their SH faceoffs. Their CA60 expectation is somewhere in between the winning and losing bars. Let’s look at the arithmetic involved.

    Let’s say xCA60 is the average shot attempts the average team gives up when it wins the first faceoff. Then xCA60 + 17 is the average shot attempts it gives up when it lose the first faceoff.

    In the 2016-17 data, teams win 45% of their SH faceoffs on average, so your average CA60 is going to be:

    average = .45 * xCA60 + .55 * (xCA60 + 17) = xCA60 + 9.35

    Between the two bars and a little closer to the lower bar.

    The standard deviation of SH FOW% is about 3.5%, so 2 standard deviations is around 7%. What would happen to your average CA60 if you managed to improve your SH FOW% by 2 standard deviations, e.g., go from a 45% team to a 52% team?

    average = .52 * xCA60 + .48 * (xCA60 + 17) = xCA60 + 8.16

    Between the two bars and now a little closer to the higher bar.

    You improved your FOW% by 2 standard deviations and, by doing so, you reduced your average CA60 by 1.19, which works out to about 1/8 of a standard deviation in CA60.

    This is why there is no correlation between winning faceoffs and killing penalties when viewed in the aggregate. The effect of faceoffs is just noise in the context of how the team plays defense, how the goalie performs, and how the other team’s shooters perform AFTER the faceoff occurs.

    Not only is there no correlation between SH FOW% and PK% this season, there is no correlation between SH FOW% and CA60. Knowing a team’s SH FOW% gives you no information on a team’s SH CA60.

    So, yes, it’s important to win the faceoff that’s happening right now. You’ll improve your odds.

    But over the course of this season’s worth of penalty kills, winning faceoffs is just noise in relation to the real factors driving PK performance.

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standing this morning using points percentage.Shown as “games over .500” to see spreads.8th place set to 0 games.

    WSH 22
    CBJ 16
    PIT 14
    NYR 12-1st wildcard
    MON 7
    OTT 4
    NYI 0
    BOS 0
    ————-
    TOR -1
    FLA -2
    TBY -4
    PHI -4
    BUF -7
    CAR -8
    DET -9
    NJD -9

    TOR was +3 not long ago but gives away leads like Bieksa *spits* gives away the puck.

    They’re up against it tonight and probably won’t win again.

    Computer boys went offline for a while but maybe Vanek at the disco can help. They got him practicing on the 3rd line with Bjugstad and Marchessault.

    Fun race to watch.

  20. Litke 94 says:

    I feel awful for Tyler Benson. As someone who was initially diagnosed with a sports hernia, but later was revealed to have been suffering from a severe strain in my pubic joint (pubic symphysis), I can say that his injury is extremely frustrating.

    It may not be exactly the same injury, but from everything I have read, it is pretty damn similar. Any tears in the groin/core area are just so damn hard to heal.

    For months, everything below my hips would alternate in nagging, heavy, disabling pain. Then it would feel good for a week. Then pain again. Then good. And so on. It took close to a year before I “recovered” and that involved dropping almost all physical activity, other than walking, to get there.I can still feel it tingle in the background during some hockey games.

    Now imagine you’re a kid trying to break into the NHL. Awful situation and challenging to gauge when you are truly “ready” to get back in the game. I am sure his body has deceived him more than once, ultimately delaying his recovery.

    Thank you Dr. Randy Gregg for being the only one who properly diagnosed me. He was literally a saviour. I hope Mr. Benson can find the same treatment and advice that I did.

  21. npanciroli says:

    Really hope Toronto misses. Would be so awesome. Calgary too.

  22. square_wheels says:

    Remember when the Oilers used to scoop players out of the Hinterlands ? I could see the college route being one avenue, but outside round 1&2 I would like to see Chia and Co look to Europe for Fwd’s.

    -Skating must be +
    -ideally shoot first “pure” wingers
    -offhand Russian shooters are fine (Leon with an RS/LW when he pulls up and makes those wicked hard lazer passes to the high man…..)
    -MORE FINNS

  23. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Reinhart trains like a demon and arrives in camp fearsome

    So expect the same tripe we heard last 2 summers from the rights holders which turned out not to be even being close to true.

    With his games missed to back and genetics, training smarter might be the ticket, not training like a demon. Team should focus on ensuring he’s doing it right before trumpeting how hard he’s worked.

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Reinhart trains like a demon and arrives in camp fearsome

    So expect the same tripe we heard last 2 summers from the rights holders which turned out not to be even being close to true.

    That is some great misdirection by the organization. Completely take the focus off a player.

  25. N64 says:

    Litke 94:
    I feel awful for Tyler Benson. As someone who was initially diagnosed with a sports hernia, but later was revealed to have been suffering from a severe strain in my pubic joint (pubic symphysis), I can say that his injury is extremely frustrating.

    It may not be exactly the same injury, but from everything I have read, it is pretty damn similar. Any tears in the groin/core area are just so damn hard to heal.

    For months, everything below my hips would alternate in nagging, heavy, disabling pain. Then it would feel good for a week. Then pain again. Then good. And so on. It took close to a year before I “recovered” and that involved dropping almost all physical activity, other than walking, to get there.I can still feel it tingle in the background during some hockey games.

    Now imagine you’re a kid trying to break into the NHL. Awful situation and challenging to gauge when you are truly “ready” to get back in the game. I am sure his body has deceived him more than once, ultimately delaying his recovery.

    Thank you Dr. Randy Gregg for being the only one who properly diagnosed me. He was literally a saviour. I hope Mr. Benson can find the same treatment and advice that I did.

    We do know that he got shut down just before a WHL game in Edmonton. One hopes that that was the team intervening to escalate things to the widest possible view with no rush to do anything other than pursue the fullest possible solution.

    The link I posted here tracks your experience. The lead sentence is “If William Meyers could get one message across to the sports world at large it would be this: Stop calling everything a sports hernia.” And it ends with “Twenty years ago, they would only say a guy had a knee injury and they wondered when he was going to come back…Now they know what the anterior cruciate and the medial collateral ligaments are, and hopefully at some point they’ll appreciate what the fibrocartilage is around the pubic bone, too.”

    http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/dr-william-meyers-gets-right-to-the-core-of-athletes-injuries-120215

  26. Pescador says:

    Lloyd B.: It would be OK if they hadn’t the All star break, then the week off then another 3 days off. Now this long break.Rust has not been their friend.

    All these extended breaks after playing what seems like every other day since the beginning of the year.Weird schedule.

    Rested v. Rusted

  27. Soup Fascist says:

    I suspect Russell may be out a bit more than day to day. If that is the case who gets the call up?

    Oesterle is my guess. If not, Reinhart or Fayne may get their chance back with the big club.

    Is there enough bonus money pending, that the Fayne or Reinhart contracts could be problematic and push some bonus $ into next year?

  28. speeds says:

    Georges:

    According to Dellow’s chart, the average NHL team does about 17 shot attempts better on CA60 on average when it wins the first faceoff. The standard deviation for CA60 in SH situations is about 8. So the difference between winning and losing a single faceoff is worth 2 standard deviations in CA60 performance. That’s big.

    Now with one faceoff, the outcome is binary: you win or you lose. Your expectation is either the bar on Dellow’s chart that wins or the bar on the chart that loses. With one faceoff, you experience the full difference between the two bars, which is on average 17 shot attempts.

    Faceoff wins on special teams are kind of interesting, I’d be curious to see them broken down a bit more to see if that gives any more information. The stat is recorded in a binary fashion, but that doesn’t mean all faceoff wins or losses are equal. Maybe a clear faceoff win has an enormous impact, but the difference between a muddled faceoff win and a muddled faceoff loss isn’t all that big?

  29. JDï™ says:

    Pescador: Rested v. Rusted

    And on HNIC, playing against a team lower in the standings… WCGW?

  30. nvan97 says:

    Georges:
    A couple of days ago, some of us had a discussion around faceoffs.

    I posted that for teams in 2016-17, the correlation between SH FOW% and PK% was .091. This shows there’s no relationship between winning faceoffs and killing penalties.

    WG posted a tweet from Tyler Dellow that suggested something different:

    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/836447956609941504

    Dellow’s chart shows every team (with weird exceptions) puts up a lower CA60 when it wins the first faceoff than when it loses the first faceoff.

    Lower CA60 is associated with lower GA60, so, presumably, each team’s PK does better when it wins the first faceoff than when it loses the first faceoff. It’s plausible that this holds for other SH faceoffs, not just the first.

    So we have these two seemingly contradictory facts:

    1) there is no relationship between winning faceoffs and killing penalties
    2) teams do better at killing penalties when they win the first faceoff

    How is this possible?

    Winning a SH faceoff on the PK means (most likely) winning possession and clearing the zone. This limits the amount of penalty time the opposing PP unit has to generate CA events, or, equivalently, creates a stretch of penalty time with zero CA events. All other things being equal, winning a SH faceoff improves your ability to kill a penalty.

    According to Dellow’s chart, the average NHL team does about 17 shot attempts better on CA60 on average when it wins the first faceoff. The standard deviation for CA60 in SH situations is about 8. So the difference between winning and losing a single faceoff is worth 2 standard deviations in CA60 performance. That’s big.

    Now with one faceoff, the outcome is binary: you win or you lose. Your expectation is either the bar on Dellow’s chart that wins or the bar on the chart that loses. With one faceoff, you experience the full difference between the two bars, which is on average 17 shot attempts.

    But when you zoom out and look at all the SH faceoffs teams take, the effect of winning faceoffs diminishes. Teams don’t win or lose 100% of their SH faceoffs. Their CA60 expectation is somewhere in between the winning and losing bars. Let’s look at the arithmetic involved.

    Let’s say xCA60 is the average shot attempts the average team gives up when it wins the first faceoff. Then xCA60 + 17 is the average shot attempts it gives up when it lose the first faceoff.

    In the 2016-17 data, teams win 45% of their SH faceoffs on average, so your average CA60 is going to be:

    average = .45 * xCA60 + .55 * (xCA60 + 17) = xCA60 + 9.35

    Between the two bars and a little closer to the lower bar.

    The standard deviation of SH FOW% is about 3.5%, so 2 standard deviations is around 7%. What would happen to your average CA60 if you managed to improve your SH FOW% by 2 standard deviations, e.g., go from a 45% team to a 52% team?

    average = .52 * xCA60 + .48 * (xCA60 + 17) = xCA60 + 8.16

    Between the two bars and now a little closer to the higher bar.

    You improved your FOW% by 2 standard deviations and, by doing so, you reduced your average CA60 by 1.19, which works out to about 1/8 of a standard deviation in CA60.

    This is why there is no correlation between winning faceoffs and killing penalties when viewed in the aggregate. The effect of faceoffs is just noise in the context of how the team plays defense, how the goalie performs, and how the other team’s shooters perform AFTER the faceoff occurs.

    Not only is there no correlation between SH FOW% and PK% this season, there is no correlation between SH FOW% and CA60. Knowing a team’s SH FOW% gives you no information on a team’s SH CA60.

    So, yes, it’s important to win the faceoff that’s happening right now. You’ll improve your odds.

    But over the course of this season’s worth of penalty kills, winning faceoffs is just noise in relation to the real factors driving PK performance.

    This is exceptional work. Thanks.
    One thing I would like to shine a light on is that little bit where you said SH FO% is 45%. That’s an unreal number and suggests that FOs are more a product of the wingers (or lack of one while SH) than the centreman especially considering I would assume that most teams run out their best FO% Cs while SH.
    Do you know the difference among elite FO% Cs at 5v5 vs SH? Has anyone ever looked at FO% of wingers to see if they are influencing their C to a greater degree than most?

  31. Lloyd B. says:

    Pescador: Rested v. Rusted

    I hope so. After this 3 games in 11 day stretch they pretty much go every other night to the end of the year with a few back to backs thrown in.

  32. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909 Oilers Death March Update for 3.3.17:

    With tonight being another off night for the Oilers, the team remains on a 97 point pace.

    Currently there are 12 Death March players who predicted 97 points. All of these players have bragging rights which mean they basically win all hockey based online arguments until the start of the next Oilers game which will be Saturday, March 4th with the Detroit Red Wings:

    Say it ain’t so, Gretz, Say it ain’t so!
    Country Girl
    Soup Fascist
    Oil2Oilers
    Water fire
    Yak Efron
    Ozzie Oiler
    PTSZPNDR
    Genjutsu
    Book;je
    Kashirat
    Lodog

  33. N64 says:

    Soup Fascist:
    I suspect Russell may be out a bit more than day to day. If that is the case who gets the call up?

    Oesterle is my guess. If not, Reinhart or Fayne may get their chance back with the big club.

    Is there enough bonus money pending, that the Fayne or Reinhart contracts could be problematic and push some bonus $ into next year?

    Depends on whether you have to have to make room for the specific bonuses that are technically impossible once 42 NHL games have been missed. Who knows how the NHL interprets the CBA.

  34. kinger_OIL says:

    Georges,

    – Great George! The methodology you present your stats here is also very helpful. We might have similar education backgrounds because this is how I go through stats for wrok as well

    – I’ve long felt this, and when Tyler posted his stuff, its what I said. You have demonstrated it empirically: “yes, it’s important to win the faceoff that’s happening right now. You’ll improve your odds. But over the course of this season’s worth of penalty kills, winning faceoffs is just noise”

    – It makes for good TV for the commentator to set the stage, and it gives GM’s the old: “plus he’s good on the face-off so there was that”.

    – Look at the FO% table, and the points table on NHL.com site. Don’t need to run a regression to realize there is no correlation. For fun, you can go YoY: it’s not a team repeatable skill either

  35. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Reinhart trains like a demon and arrives in camp fearsome

    So expect the same tripe we heard last 2 summers from the rights holders which turned out not to be even being close to true.

    So many tiresome GM cliches
    Real Pro.
    High Character.
    Competes Hard.
    Good in the room.
    Great shape.
    Snazzy dresser.

  36. kinger_OIL says:

    N64: If we are honest, this is close to a crisis.

    – It’s a great title, and a great reference. I was referring to when LT says: “If we are honest, this is close to a crisis.”

    – I don’t believe it is anywhere remotely close to a crisis, relative to any other organization

  37. N64 says:

    Pescador: So many tiresome GM cliches
    Real Pro.
    High Character.
    Competes Hard.
    Good in the room.
    Great shape.
    Snazzy dresser.

    …needs to train MOAR.

  38. N64 says:

    kinger_OIL: – It’s a great title, and a great reference.I was referring to when LT says: “If we are honest, this is close to a crisis.”

    – I don’t believe it is anywhere remotely close to a crisis, relative to any other organization

    Missed that line. It’s specifically about the state of Forward prospects. Not a general crisis. Just one dashboard indicator to deal with.

  39. kinger_OIL says:

    Pescador,

    – “Strong on Face-offs”

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    A couple of days ago, some of us had a discussion around faceoffs.

    I posted that for teams in 2016-17, the correlation between SH FOW% and PK% was .091. This shows there’s no relationship between winning faceoffs and killing penalties.

    WG posted a tweet from Tyler Dellow that suggested something different:

    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/836447956609941504

    Dellow’s chart shows every team (with weird exceptions) puts up a lower CA60 when it wins the first faceoff than when it loses the first faceoff.

    Lower CA60 is associated with lower GA60, so, presumably, each team’s PK does better when it wins the first faceoff than when it loses the first faceoff. It’s plausible that this holds for other SH faceoffs, not just the first.

    So we have these two seemingly contradictory facts:

    1) there is no relationship between winning faceoffs and killing penalties
    2) teams do better at killing penalties when they win the first faceoff

    How is this possible?

    Winning a SH faceoff on the PK means (most likely) winning possession and clearing the zone. This limits the amount of penalty time the opposing PP unit has to generate CA events, or, equivalently, creates a stretch of penalty time with zero CA events. All other things being equal, winning a SH faceoff improves your ability to kill a penalty.

    According to Dellow’s chart, the average NHL team does about 17 shot attempts better on CA60 on average when it wins the first faceoff. The standard deviation for CA60 in SH situations is about 8. So the difference between winning and losing a single faceoff is worth 2 standard deviations in CA60 performance. That’s big.

    Now with one faceoff, the outcome is binary: you win or you lose. Your expectation is either the bar on Dellow’s chart that wins or the bar on the chart that loses. With one faceoff, you experience the full difference between the two bars, which is on average 17 shot attempts.

    But when you zoom out and look at all the SH faceoffs teams take, the effect of winning faceoffs diminishes. Teams don’t win or lose 100% of their SH faceoffs. Their CA60 expectation is somewhere in between the winning and losing bars. Let’s look at the arithmetic involved.

    Let’s say xCA60 is the average shot attempts the average team gives up when it wins the first faceoff. Then xCA60 + 17 is the average shot attempts it gives up when it lose the first faceoff.

    In the 2016-17 data, teams win 45% of their SH faceoffs on average, so your average CA60 is going to be:

    average = .45 * xCA60 + .55 * (xCA60 + 17) = xCA60 + 9.35

    Between the two bars and a little closer to the lower bar.

    The standard deviation of SH FOW% is about 3.5%, so 2 standard deviations is around 7%. What would happen to your average CA60 if you managed to improve your SH FOW% by 2 standard deviations, e.g., go from a 45% team to a 52% team?

    average = .52 * xCA60 + .48 * (xCA60 + 17) = xCA60 + 8.16

    Between the two bars and now a little closer to the higher bar.

    You improved your FOW% by 2 standard deviations and, by doing so, you reduced your average CA60 by 1.19, which works out to about 1/8 of a standard deviation in CA60.

    This is why there is no correlation between winning faceoffs and killing penalties when viewed in the aggregate. The effect of faceoffs is just noise in the context of how the team plays defense, how the goalie performs, and how the other team’s shooters perform AFTER the faceoff occurs.

    Not only is there no correlation between SH FOW% and PK% this season, there is no correlation between SH FOW% and CA60. Knowing a team’s SH FOW% gives you no information on a team’s SH CA60.

    So, yes, it’s important to win the faceoff that’s happening right now. You’ll improve your odds.

    But over the course of this season’s worth of penalty kills, winning faceoffs is just noise in relation to the real factors driving PK performance.

    Excellent.

    Thanks for sharing that.

  41. Pescador says:

    JDï™: And on HNIC, playing against a team lower in the standings… WCGW?

    I can hear TMac in the post game presser already “took us too long to get our legs going”.
    “I would say yes, we are guilty of playing down to their level”
    Hopefully I’m just being a Dougie Downer.
    Although some of the pre-game line up cards have been infuriating, hard to argue the coach hasn’t done an excellent job overall.

  42. kinger_OIL says:

    N64,

    – Your right! I re-read it, he was talking about the F’s. Anyway, still disagree: top-6 is set, pool-party in AHL, a trade for an upgrade/different feel of the Steve Austins, lots of guys available every year. Not team has multiple top-6 guys brewing in AHL…Anyway, LT is the man, I’m just some dude: I respect LT’s opinion a lot more than mine, so I will shut up: I got nuthin’ but words!

  43. Litke 94 says:

    N64,

    Great article and very relieving, thank you for sharing… Good to know that people in the future that get struck with this injury will hopefully have more options and information.

    After having 4 Doctors tell me that the hernia was too small to be causing pain and that I should be better soon, the innovative thoughts and practice of Dr. Gregg was like an oasis. The only one to push further.

    Love the knee comparison as well. Knowledge is power!

  44. Glass says:

    Seems like we may want to draft a right handed forward in the first round who is a shoot first type. Would be nice to find that player via NCAA or KHL signings, even if it is just a stop gap. I’m not THAT worried about left wing for the time being. You could run Drai on LW on either McDavid or Nuge’s line, and have Eberle & Puljujarvi play on the other side.

    Next Year:
    Maroon/McDavid/Eberle
    Lucic/Drai/Puljujarvi
    Pouliot/Nuge/Slepyshev
    Khaira/Letestu/Kassian/Pitlick

    Or you can bump Lucic down to 3LW, Drai to 2LW, and Nuge to 2C, but then we have a massive gap at C.

  45. McSorley33 says:

    If we are honest, this is close to a crisis. Top amateur prospect Tyler Benson has some real issues two winters in a row, and that is a concern for this young man and the organization. I sincerely hope he can overcome the difficulties and his two winter injuries are not related, but counting on him to have a healthy career is probably a bad idea at this point in time.

    *****************************************************************************************

    Yeah, but there was no way for the Oilers to know about the long injury history of Tyler Benson.

    Further, Right Winger Alex DeBrincat continues to struggle, badly, in the OHL.

  46. Lloyd B. says:

    Glass:
    Seems like we may want to draft a right handed forward in the first round who is a shoot first type. Would be nice to find that player via NCAA or KHL signings, even if it is just a stop gap. I’m not THAT worried about left wing for the time being. You could run Drai on LW on either McDavid or Nuge’s line, and have Eberle & Puljujarvi play on the other side.

    Next Year:
    Maroon/McDavid/Eberle
    Lucic/Drai/Puljujarvi
    Pouliot/Nuge/Slepyshev
    Khaira/Letestu/Kassian/Pitlick

    Or you can bump Lucic down to 3LW, Drai to 2LW, and Nuge to 2C, but then we have a massive gap at C.

    You are writing off Desharnais? WG has posted some interesting information that shows we may need to reserve judgement.

  47. Georges says:

    speeds: Faceoff wins on special teams are kind of interesting, I’d be curious to see them broken down a bit more to see if that gives any more information.The stat is recorded in a binary fashion, but that doesn’t mean all faceoff wins or losses are equal.Maybe a clear faceoff win has an enormous impact, but the difference between a muddled faceoff win and a muddled faceoff loss isn’t all that big?

    A faceoff win means you start the play with possession. A clear win would mean that you get that extra second or two to really take advantage of that start.

    But the numbers show that there’s still a long road to walk from starting a play with possession and goals. You improve your odds by winning a faceoff but I think you can only improve them slightly. I don’t think a clear win could have an enormous impact.

  48. Mr. D. says:

    In the last 10 games I thing 62 is playing better than 83. Much more valuable in the D zone.

  49. Georges says:

    nvan97: This is exceptional work. Thanks.
    One thing I would like to shine a light on is that little bit where you said SH FO% is 45%. That’s an unreal number and suggests that FOs are more a product of the wingers (or lack of one while SH) than the centreman especially considering I would assume that most teams run out their best FO% Cs while SH.
    Do you know the difference among elite FO% Cs at 5v5 vs SH? Has anyone ever looked at FO% of wingers to see if they are influencing their C to a greater degree than most?

    I posted on this topic the other night:

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/03/01/even-in-the-quietest-moments/

    A C’s SH FO% is almost always lower than his PP FO%. The difference is statistically significant.

    Having one fewer teammate on the ice decreases the win rate for faceoffs.

    This supports the idea that winning faceoffs is a mix of team (winger) play as well as individual C skill.

  50. Glass says:

    Lloyd B.,

    I’m not, but I’m also not including him into the long term plans.

    That lineup is for next season, assuming minimal changes, which is likely not the case.

  51. Kepler62 says:

    With Jones and Bear coming in to Bakersfield next season along with Mantha I see no reason for them to add another Mark Fraser type at the minor league level. Get those guys some playing time. I’d like to see a mix of F and D at the draft as you always need both coming into the system each year, more emphasis of F this year – but not drafting any D would be a mistake in my opinion.

  52. Lloyd B. says:

    Georges: A faceoff win means you start the play with possession. A clear win would mean that you get that extra second or two to really take advantage of that start.

    But the numbers show that there’s still a long road to walk from starting a play with possession and goals. You improve your odds by winning a faceoff but I think you can only improve them slightly. I don’t think a clear win could have an enormous impact.

    I am so not a numbers guy but it occurs to me that the best PPs hover around 20% . FOW% is 50%.

    So 50% of 20% a face off matters? Or is it 20% of 50% it matters. ( I told you I wasn’t a math guy)

  53. Georges says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Georges,

    – Great George!The methodology you present your stats here is also very helpful.We might have similar education backgrounds because this is how I go through stats for wrok as well

    – I’ve long felt this, and when Tyler posted his stuff, its what I said.You have demonstrated it empirically: “yes, it’s important to win the faceoff that’s happening right now. You’ll improve your odds. But over the course of this season’s worth of penalty kills, winning faceoffs is just noise”

    – It makes for good TV for the commentator to set the stage, and it gives GM’s the old: “plus he’s good on the face-off so there was that”.

    – Look at the FO% table, and the points table on NHL.com site.Don’t need to run a regression to realize there is no correlation.For fun, you can go YoY: it’s not a team repeatable skill either

    Thanks, k_o. I haven’t looked at YoY for FO%. I’ll do that at some point for team and players and let you know what I find. But it sounds like you already know what I’m going to find: bupkis.

  54. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thank you, sir. And thank you also for posting the link to the tweet.

  55. 106 and 106 says:

    Summer Headlines: Cam Talbot receives Vezina votes; the Oilers draft a quality goalie prospect; Nick Ellis gets some love as a possible future solution in net.

    Added: Can LB be a capable backup?

  56. leadfarmer says:

    Lloyd B.: You are writing off Desharnais?WG has posted some interesting information that shows we may need to reserve judgement.

    Those numbers are before a significant injury. It takes a long time to get back to 100% from a significant injury.

  57. blainer says:

    speeds: Faceoff wins on special teams are kind of interesting, I’d be curious to see them broken down a bit more to see if that gives any more information.The stat is recorded in a binary fashion, but that doesn’t mean all faceoff wins or losses are equal.Maybe a clear faceoff win has an enormous impact, but the difference between a muddled faceoff win and a muddled faceoff loss isn’t all that big?

    Now this makes a lot of sense to me. Faceoffs matter IMO. Especially on special teams and is one of the reasons Tester is on both special teams plus the fact he is a RT shot.

    Winning the faceoff cleanly often sets up a HDSA. The coach has mentioned the faceoffs quite a bit and they know it needs to improve. DD will help in this area I hope.

    I think it is even more important this time of year when things tighten up. Any extra time you possess the puck matters.

    The one thing I will also bring up. Losing way more draws than you are winning will increase your fatigue/60. For me when losing a lot of draws you will be working harder to get the puck back. When you possess the puck I find you don’t burn near the amount of energy as when you are trying to get it back.

    Now these are Pro’s and in great shape but any and all factors that give you an advantage are important. JMHO.

  58. Dino says:

    RE: Benson

    I can understand the logic that caused the Oilers to take a gamble on the kid. He was a bonafide talent projected to go somewhere in the middle of the first round and he fell to them in the 2nd. If everything worked out they would’ve drafted two 1st rounders in one draft (Puljujarvi and Benson) and that would be a steal.

    However this team hasn’t hit on a 2nd rounder in ages and when they do they trade them so this team was in no position to take a risk of that size on a player with serious injury history with their 2nd round pick, especially considering they won’t have one this season either. That’s the kind of risk a prospect loaded team can afford to take, NOT a team with an anemic prospect pool like Edmonton has. That was poor asset management and the reason the prospect cupboard remains bare.

    Can you imagine if they drafted Eriksson-Ek and Carlo in 2015 like they originally wanted to and then picked up Raddysh last season in the 2nd round? We probably could’ve had a more eventful trade deadline this year because they wouldn’t be afraid to trade their 1st round pick for immediate help. I hope they do better moving forward and I hope Benson makes a full recovery and has good health the rest of his career.

  59. Glass says:

    Anyone read the scouting report on Nicholas Suzuki? He is tailor made for our needs.
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=300436

    Robert Thomas & Kole Lind are also strong choices.

  60. 106 and 106 says:

    To go along with the injury talk above:
    Man-Games Lost to Injury (2016-2017):

    1. Det – 354
    2. EDM – 336 (Ference contributes 50 games)
    3. Buf – 296
    4. Tor – 269
    5. Dal – 268
    7. Wpg – 267
    8. Van – 266
    9. Ari – 243
    10. Bos – 234

    EDM and BOS only members on list to be in playoff spots.
    Links with Chia and his comments on needing depth.

    Still impressive though considering the teams around them and their relative standings.

  61. Georges says:

    Lloyd B.: I am so not a numbers guy but it occurs to me that the best PPs hover around 20% .FOW% is 50%.

    So 50% of 20% a face off matters?Or is it 20% of 50% it matters.( I told you I wasn’t a math guy)

    Every faceoff matters but all faceoffs taken together don’t matter.

    I agree with you. It’s a little what the what. Here’s how I’d look at it.

    Winning any one faceoff will make you better off because you’ll have the puck and you have the initiative over your opponent.

    But teams aren’t able to consistently convert this initiative advantage to favorable results.

    That’s because the faceoff just starts the play, and there’s a lot of play left after the faceoff.

    Teams differ in their ability to defend, break up passes, recover pucks, stop pucks, prevent shots, etc. And running all through that innate team ability is luck.

    The faceoff is layered on top of that. You could be a good faceoff team and play horrible defense, or a bad faceoff team and play great defense. We don’t know. We don’t know what kind of PP and PK team you are by looking at your FO%. We only know you’re a good or bad FO% team.

  62. Melvis says:

    Getting single seats in the lower bowl (section 102 – 103…or the opposite side) – for a preferred game like the 2 Kings games later in March or Ducks on Apr 1… is proving to be a pain in the butt. And a pair chokes me since I don’t know anybody particularly interested in Oilers for the price.

    Unless I’m looking in all the wrong places. Ticketmaster at the moment.

    What I’m considering right now in a roundabout way…is section 103 – row 14 or 22 – seats 3&4…or something like it. More or less for any of those 3 games. About $300. I’ll suck up the service charge. Maybe more, unless you show up in $2k worth of casual under the home silks, and a Tag on your wrist – all draped over $800 shoes. Although I’m not averse to 3 carats on a finger if the fairer sex.

    I’m going in whatever I can dig out from the back of the van down by the river – but I promise well bathed out of a sink at any nearby gas station.

    So if anybody is willing to join me…

  63. Dino says:

    Glass,

    Personally I’m hoping for Lind, Glass, Makar or Yamamoto

  64. blainer says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909 Oilers Death March Update for 3.3.17:

    With tonight being another off night for the Oilers, the team remains on a 97 point pace.

    Currently there are 12 Death March players who predicted 97 points. All of these players have bragging rights which mean they basically win all hockey based online arguments until the start of the next Oilers game which will be Saturday, March 4th with the Detroit Red Wings:

    Say it ain’t so, Gretz, Say it ain’t so!
    Countrgirl
    Soup Fascist
    Oil2Oilers
    Water fire
    Yak Efron
    Ozzie Oiler
    PTSZPNDR
    Genjutsu
    Book;je
    Kashirat
    Lodog

    Thanks for the updates Hunter. I had the most optimistic prediction. I will fall short as one of my hopes was for a big trade deadline.

    I still think we break 100 points though.

    Your Death March has been lots of fun to watch. Well done sir !!

  65. JDï™ says:

    Melvis:

    Unless I’m looking in all the wrong places. Ticketmaster at the moment.

    https://www.stubhub.com/

    And don’t eat too much of that government cheese.

  66. kinger_OIL says:

    Georges,

    – And I alluded to this before: the defending team has the opportunity to slap/hack puck down ice upon even slight possession in FO : which is not a play available in a non-penalty FO situation.

  67. Glass says:

    Dino,

    I have a feeling Glass and Makar won’t be available. If Glass is, perfect. Makar is a risky pick, but I wouldn’t mind if we picked him up. We would be set on defense for quite a while, and can prioritize forwards in the higher rounds.

    Makar seems kind of risky because he’s having a lot of success in a lower league. Who knows how well he’d compare to 1st & 2nd rounders if he was instead in the WHL for example. But if he decides to go the college route, I think that’d be really good for him.

  68. Pouzar says:

    Jack Michaels (@EdmontonJack) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonJack

    Based on practice, Desharnais centres Slepyshev/Kassian. Hendricks-Letestu-Khaira (Benning, Caggiula, & Pakarinen likely scratches vs DET).

    Just can’t stop that Hendricks itch.

  69. Melvis says:

    JDï™,

    I’ll avoid the cheese. And the garlic sausage from Mundare isn’t what it used to be either.

  70. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar:
    Jack Michaels (@EdmontonJack) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonJack

    Based on practice, Desharnais centres Slepyshev/Kassian. Hendricks-Letestu-Khaira (Benning, Caggiula, & Pakarinen likely scratches vs DET).

    Just can’t stop that Hendricks itch.

    Benning scratched again is a surprise.

  71. JDï™ says:

    Pouzar: Hendricks itch.

    Hendritch™

    At least the coach hasn’t characterized his presence in the lineup as a ‘smell that won’t go away’.

  72. doritogrande says:

    Man-Games Lost to Injury (2016-2017):

    Pakarinen also probably counts in that, for what that’s worth.

    Best part of this year, is it’s the depth that’s injured, not 1C/1LW players as in years past.

  73. N64 says:

    JDï™: https://www.stubhub.com/

    And don’t eat too much of that government cheese.

    I’ve seen posters here reference seatgeek as well.

  74. blainer says:

    I do love the competition that is finally happening in our bottom six. If you want to dress or even stay up with the team you better be working your ass off.

    This includes Hendy and DD. If you don’t show up for every shift of every game you will sit. Now the coach does like Hendy and I have to say I prefer him over caggs at this point as well.

    What separates Hendy and one of the reasons I think he still gets dressed is his ability to win a faceoff.

    He has defiantly slowed down but is still giving what he can. Depth.. it is a thing. I wonder if Pou is healthy.. if so I am surprised a little that he would sit before Hendy.

  75. N64 says:

    Melvis: Getting single seats in the lower bowl

    Just remember there are really 2 kinds of Seats. Near Bruce. And Away. Can’t recall which are Gold.

  76. Pouzar says:

    blainer: This includes Hendy

    He and Pak had one shot attempt each last game. They are horrid. Poor Khaira is 70% CF away from those guys ( Super Small Sample Size Alert).

  77. N64 says:

    blainer: Your Death March has been lots of fun to watch. Well done sir !!

    Something went gloriously wrong this year and scrambled it up.

    HERD AT MACH

  78. JDï™ says:

    N64: seatgeek

    That’s the other assonance based site name. I guess it’s not quite as effective as stub hub, bub.

  79. Melvis says:

    N64,

    I was going to ask which Bruce, but no matter. I show up in horse blinders and orange ear plugs.

  80. geowal says:

    Kepler62:
    With Jones and Bear coming in to Bakersfield next season along with Mantha I see no reason for them to add another Mark Fraser type at the minor league level.Get those guys some playing time.I’d like to see a mix of F and D at the draft as you always need both coming into the system each year, more emphasis of F this year – but not drafting any D would be a mistake in my opinion.

    Agreed, whatever remains of Musil/Simpson/Oesterle and less so Betker etc should more than qualify as the AHL vets at this point. If it turns out they’re lacking then an actual AHL veteran can be found no doubt.

  81. russ99 says:

    LT:

    Can’t believe you used the “N” word with Klefbom. After MacT’s idiotic comment, that shouldn’t be thrown around in reference to the Oilers.

    Besides, he needs to be a much better complete defenseman before he’s in that conversation.

    I can’t wait until March expectations are posted.

    Could be a lot harder than it looks, especially if we continue to lay an egg in the first period at home. Hope they did some correction to the ice surface during the road trip.

    Plus the start of the 12 game Pacific gauntlet at the end of the month, other teams call that the “playoffs before the playoffs”. They haven’t meant much to us for a while, but they’ll determine the last few playoff spots and who we’ll face in the first round.

    Those Vancouver and Colorado games could be trap games, and LA with the two-headed goalie monster won’t be pushovers.

  82. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    leadfarmer: Benning scratched again is a surprise.

    Given that he jumped from College right to a fairly significant NHL role I’m pleased as punch that the team is giving him some extra rest. That’s a big jump in playing time and physical intensity.

  83. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    leadfarmer,

    My guess is fatigue, the most games he played in a season before this year was 57 in the USHL and then 41 at Northeastern, neither of which have coast to coast travel schedules.

  84. Pouzar says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Given that he jumped from College right to a fairly significant NHL role I’m pleased as punch that the team is giving him some extra rest. That’s a big jump in playing time and physical intensity.

    Yeah I am sure this is a huge part of it. But then again…………

  85. Lloyd B. says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Given that he jumped from College right to a fairly significant NHL role I’m pleased as punch that the team is giving him some extra rest. That’s a big jump in playing time and physical intensity.

    There could also be a little nagging injury we know nothing about.

  86. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    russ99,

    On the topic of ice!

    I took a look and from here until the end of the month there is nothing but hockey being played in Rogers Place. Three Oil King games sprinkled in with all the Oiler games so hopefully a month of non-mixed use will help smooth out the bumps for this stretch drive.

  87. leadfarmer says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    leadfarmer,

    My guess is fatigue, the most games he played in a season before this year was 57 in the USHL and then 41 at Northeastern, neither of which have coast to coast travel schedules.

    He did have 6 days off and only played 13 min last game.

  88. Russian Rocket says:

    106 and 106,

    Since the 09-10 season the Oilers are worst in the league in Man Games Lost (https://www.mangameslost.com/the-most-injured-nhl-teams-since-the-2009-2010-season/)

    The main consistency in the teams structure over this time has been its Medical and Strength and Conditioning Staff…

  89. fifthcartel says:

    Detroit isn’t very good and will be on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, but Matt Benning should be there on merit.

  90. adamjames says:

    Haven’t seen it discussed much, but any indication about why Chia was trying to move Ference’s cap hit?

    On the nose of it, I’d imagine it just gives a little breathing room bonus wise. Although I wonder if Ference’s cap gets successfully moved, if we’re discussing where Vrbata slots on the roster.

  91. 106 and 106 says:

    Russian Rocket,

    Didn’t the oilers fire their medical staff (I believe it was Eakins timr) looking for a new look?

  92. 106 and 106 says:

    JDï™,

    Because they were the problem, of course.

  93. classict says:

    adamjames:
    Haven’t seen it discussed much, but any indication about why Chia was trying to move Ference’s cap hit?

    On the nose of it, I’d imagine it just gives a little breathing room bonus wise. Although I wonder if Ference’s cap gets successfully moved, if we’re discussing where Vrbata slots on the roster.

    Are teams allowed to use the overage they can create with LTIR players on bonus overages? I feel like I heard somewhere they can’t, and if not I imagine that’s possibly why they’d try and move him.

  94. JDï™ says:

    106 and 106,

    I’m not saying they were, just that injury stats based on a time frame since 09/10 (as RR posted), would be owned by the current staff.

  95. N64 says:

    Melvis:
    N64,

    I was going to ask which Bruce, but no matter. I show up in horse blinders and orange ear plugs.

    Bruce McCurdy, weekly guest on LT’s show, Edmonton Journal blogger, voice of reason at almost all times, and real time referree evaluator for nearby rows. Gold.

  96. N64 says:

    adamjames:
    Haven’t seen it discussed much, but any indication about why Chia was trying to move Ference’s cap hit?

    On the nose of it, I’d imagine it just gives a little breathing room bonus wise. Although I wonder if Ference’s cap gets successfully moved, if we’re discussing where Vrbata slots on the roster.

    You’d think they were looking for deals that would require Ferrence deal to consummate.

  97. Gerta Rauss says:

    adamjames: Haven’t seen it discussed much, but any indication about why Chia was trying to move Ference’s cap hit?

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2017/03/01/oilers-gm-had-luxury-of-staying-patient-at-trade-deadline

    -Like all of the other GMs, Chiarelli did a lot of negotiating – and the fact he was trying to free up cap space by moving Andrew Ference’s contract suggests he was prepared to do something significant.

    We kind of targeted a few areas and they didn’t happen,” he said. “You kind of pick around the edges a little bit and had a couple of thoughts in mind, and we had a little bit of traction on some things…

    Several quotes from Chia in that article

  98. Side says:

    Gerta Rauss: http://www.edmontonsun.com/2017/03/01/oilers-gm-had-luxury-of-staying-patient-at-trade-deadline

    -Like all of the other GMs, Chiarelli did a lot of negotiating – and the fact he was trying to free up cap space by moving Andrew Ference’s contract suggests he was prepared to do something significant.

    We kind of targeted a few areas and they didn’t happen,” he said. “You kind of pick around the edges a little bit and had a couple of thoughts in mind, and we had a little bit of traction on some things…

    Several quotes from Chia in that article

    But I thought Chia was an incompetent who has no plan?

    I thought any and all trades could happen at a whim? What do you mean there are other GM’s involved in making a trade decision? Sorry, I just still can’t believe Pete didn’t get a 2nd round pick + Victor Hedman + Erik Karlsson for Davidson!

  99. Melvis says:

    N64,

    Then the seat selection is irrelevant. I’m into Darcy for the beer and burger. At which point Bruce hovers into view. Err…make that three (frick).

    At which point buyer’s remorse and the notion I can get to Paris for the cost of an Oiler’s game.

  100. kinger_OIL says:

    JDï™:
    106 and 106,

    I’m not saying they were, just that injury stats based on a time frame since 09/10 (as RR posted), would be owned by the current staff.

    – You mean a training staff consisting of old-timers whose calling cards consisted of 30+ years employees with no modern sports medicine back ground, brother of the president?

    “Head trainer Ken Lowe, a 29-year employee and the brother to Oilers President of Hockey Operations Kevin Lowe, will be reassigned within the organization alongside head equipment manager Barrie Stafford and equipment manager Lyle (Sparky) Kulchisky.

    Stafford has been with the team for 29 seasons, while Kulchisky goes back 34 seasons to the old World Hockey Association.”

    – Lord what a joke, like so mickey mouse it isn’t even funny to think that the modern athlete’s health would be managed and monitored exclusively by a group with no formal training: ”

    “Hey I taped Gretz stick in the glory days”:

    “Great, here’s a 10 year extension, you know the Oiler way, now get at ‘er”

  101. JDï™ says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Let’s get this straight – I was neither implying that they were, or were not the problem. I just wanted to clarify when the swamp was drained.

    Yes it sure looks like a joke from here, but who knows – maybe they were really good at their jobs, and that’s why they were around so long?

    That the Oilers lead the league in person-games-lost since their dismissal, doesn’t exactly point to the old staff being the problem. Possibly one of the problems, but definitely not the problem.

    It could be that always being down a goal or four, might cause players to play in a manner that leads to more injuries.

  102. Ducey says:

    kinger_OIL: – You mean a training staff consisting of old-timers whose calling cards consisted of 30+ years employees with no modern sports medicine back ground, brother of the president?

    “Head trainer Ken Lowe, a 29-year employee and the brother to Oilers President of Hockey Operations Kevin Lowe, will be reassigned within the organization alongside head equipment manager Barrie Stafford and equipment manager Lyle (Sparky) Kulchisky.

    Stafford has been with the team for 29 seasons, while Kulchisky goes back 34 seasons to the old World Hockey Association.”

    – Lord what a joke, like so mickey mouse it isn’t even funny to think that the modern athlete’s health would be managed and monitored exclusively by a group with no formal training: ”

    “Hey I taped Gretz stick in the glory days”:

    “Great, here’s a 10 year extension, you know the Oiler way, now get at ‘er”

    So the trainer and equipment manager are responsible for Connors broken collarbone, Nuge trying to block a shot with his hand, Ference’s degenerative hip, Pitlick injuring his spleen (and various other things), etc?

    Need to fire all the new guys too.

    Even better. Have some clue what you are talking about.

  103. N64 says:

    Melvis:
    N64,

    Then the seat selection is irrelevant. I’m into Darcy for the beer and burger. At which point Bruce hovers into view. Err…make that three (frick).

    At which point buyer’s remorse and the notion I can get to Paris for the cost of an Oiler’s game.

    Hah. You can see LT, Darcy and Bruce most Thursdays for the price of a bus ticket on the 317.Or just visit an LRT station near the river valley. Thoughtful folk leave unexpired transfers on the ticket validators.

  104. loilty says:

    Tyler Benson is starting to look like Tyler Pitlick 2.0

    Promising 2nd rounder being derailed by injuries

  105. kinger_OIL says:

    Ducey,

    – Hey Ducey and Jdi: take a chill pill. I merely clicked on that link about those trainers, and the rage of the idiocy of previous regimes, and the OBC that for years I was in the very minor vocal group calling them out consistently: it all seeped out

    – I can see how you would read this as talking about your stuff: it wasn’t. My head got filled with white seething anger and I lost it for a moment.

    – I am not blaming these guys on our current status as high-injury.

    – And you guys are among my favourite posters: I come in peace

    – My bad: sorry to the broken posts! I’m glad I’m not in that space anymore.

  106. JDï™ says:

    kinger_OIL,

    No worries KO – I was being pulled in two different directions on my comment, and just wanted to clarify. Didn’t mean to come off sounding miffed.

    I try not to get caught up in the ‘Oilers do it, so it must be bad’ mentality, but I admit it’s not easy and can see why it happens to people.

  107. Rondo says:

    Grant McCagg on the trade David Desharnais to Edmonton for Brandon Davidson:

    “I’m trying to think back to an old deal where Peter Chiarelli owed Marc Bergevin a favour, but none popped to mind, so I’m still trying to figure out why Edmonton would make this deal. Desharnais was productive a few years ago…but those days are over. The diminutive forward has seen plenty of time on the power play the past three seasons with little or no production. He would be trotted out time and again, and it was hard to comprehend, as in his past 75 games he failed to score a power-play goal and collected just three assists despite regular shifts on the first and second units.

    What was even more concerning was his constant basket hanging. A player who gets very few points should be working hard on the backcheck, especially playing center when you are supposed to protect your own slot and the opposing center, but he was regularly the last forward back, having a disconcerting habit of standing at the opponent’s goal line hoping a teammate gets a turnover until the puck was on its way back the other way and him a line or two behind the play. When an opponent was bringing the puck out of its own zone, the majority of the time Desharnais was nowhere to be seen, and more often than not would head to the bench for a change instead of trying to backcheck, leaving the next center hopelessly out of the play and often on the hook for a goal against.”

    https://recrutes.ca/habs-beef-up-on-trade-deadline-day/

  108. Marc says:

    classict: Are teams allowed to use the overage they can create with LTIR players on bonus overages? I feel like I heard somewhere they can’t, and if not I imagine that’s possibly why they’d try and move him.

    I don’t think so. I looked into this a couple weeks ago and as far as I can tell a team’s end of year cap hit is the average of its daily cap hits for the entire season, plus the sum of all player bonuses earned over the course of the season. If bonuses take the team over the salary cap, then their cap number for the following season is reduced by the amount of the overage. LTIR can be used to extend the cap during the season, but not to reduce the final cap number at the end.

    I did a very rough calculation and worked out that for every $1M of annual salary the Oilers added at the trade deadline, their end of year cap hit would go up by approximately $50K (and vice versa), so moving Ference would lower it by $150K or so, which would have limited the damage that adding someone like Halak would have caused, or just given them more wiggle room if Drai hits all his bonuses.

  109. rickithebear says:

    George a few years back :
    I looked at ZS:
    The pre Delow puck Data for Entry (.37) and Zone started pocession was (.5)

    So I looked at a players ZS start numbers.
    OFF ZS win total X .50 = XCF
    Off ZS loss total X .37 = XCA
    NEU ZS Win X .37 = X CF
    NEU ZS loss X.37 = XCA
    DEF ZS Win X .37 = XCF
    Def ZS loss X .50 = XCA
    ———————————————-
    Off bench with Pocession X .37 = xCF
    Off bench W/o pocesion X .37 = xCF
    you will get a standard portion a players CA dictated by these numbers.

    15-16:
    Russell Played 62gm 18.96 EVTOI resulting in 19.59 60 min segments
    51.31 CF/60
    61.98 CA/60
    -10.67 Corsi Diff 60
    24.0 SF/60
    27.4 SA/60

    OFF ZS win
    174 X .50 = 87 CF
    Off ZS loss
    183 X .37 = 67.7 CA
    NEU ZS
    189 X .37 = 69.9 CF
    NEU ZS
    190 X.37 = 70.3 CA
    DEF ZS Win
    162 X .37 = 60 CF
    Def ZS loss
    207 X .50 = 103.5 CA

    CF:
    (87 + 69.9 + 60)/19.592 = 10.87CF/60
    10.87/51.31 = 21.2% of overall CF10
    51.31 – 10.87 = 40.44

    CA:
    (67.7 + 70.3 + 103.5) /19.592 = 12.33CA/60
    12.33/61.98 = 19.9% of overall CA
    61.98 – 12.33 = 49.65

    Corsi Differential:
    10.87-12.33 = -1.46
    -1.46/-10.87 = 13.43% of Russells Corsi diferential is from Zone start affect.

    THen we need to Look At the affect from Coming Off the Bench.
    Off the bench w Pocession Total DZ X .37)
    +
    Off the bench w Pocession Total NZ X .37)
    +
    off the bench w/ procession total OZ X .50
    = CF
    Cf/19.59 60 min segments = Off bench affect on CF/60

    Off the bench w/o Pocession Total DZ X .50)
    +
    Off the bench w/o Pocession Total NZ X .37)
    +
    off the bench w/o procession total OZ X .37
    = CA
    CA/19.59 60 min segments = Off bench affect on CA/60

    This will have some Affect on Corsi differential.

    then we can look at puck retrieval.
    this is an area I did not have time t invest in.
    but if we say a 75% retrieval rate from Misses and blocks
    100 % retrieval from TKA and Give aways.

    CF affect Russell on the Ice:
    20.0 BF/60:
    75% BF retrieval 15.0 BF /60 X .37 = 5.55 CF/60
    25% BF lost 5 BF lost/60 X .50 = 2.5 CA/60
    12.2 MA/60:
    75% retrieval 9.2 MA/60 X .37 = 3.4 CF/60
    25% MA lost 3.0 MA/60 X .50 = 1.5 CA/60
    6.1 TKA/60 X .50 = 3.05 CF/60

    CA affect Russell:
    13.3 BA/60:
    75% BA retrieval 10.0 BA /60 X .37 = 3.70CA/60
    25% BA lost 3.3 BA lost/60 X .50 = 1.65 CF/60
    11.6 MF/60:
    75% retrieval 8.7 MF/60 X .37 = 3.22 CA.60
    25% MA lost 2.9 MF/60 X .50 = 1.45 CF/60
    7.52 GVA/60 X .5- = 3.76 CA/60

    CF russel affect
    5.55 + 3.4 + 3.05 + 1.65 + 1.45 = 15.1 CF/60
    40.44 ADJZS – 15.1 = 25.34 CF/60
    15.1/40.44 = 37.3% is retrieval off of Def Affect.

  110. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    rickithebear,

    And in summary, you find…. what?

  111. Marc says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    rickithebear,

    And in summary, you find…. what?

    Tasty, tasty honey. 🙂

  112. countrygirl says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909 Oilers Death March Update for 3.3.17:

    With tonight being another off night for the Oilers, the team remains on a 97 point pace.

    Currently there are 12 Death March players who predicted 97 points. All of these players have bragging rights which mean they basically win all hockey based online arguments until the start of the next Oilers game which will be Saturday, March 4th with the Detroit Red Wings:

    Say it ain’t so, Gretz, Say it ain’t so!
    Countrgirl
    Soup Fascist
    Oil2Oilers
    Water fire
    Yak Efron
    Ozzie Oiler
    PTSZPNDR
    Genjutsu
    Book;je
    Kashirat
    Lodog

    hunter1909,

    Thanks for the bragging rights Hunter1909. I am a die had optimistic Oilers fan and enjoy coming to this site to learn and to be entertained. Thank you to all of the contributors who know a lot more about hockey than I do and thanks also to LT for providing and monitoring this discussion space. I stick by my original prediction of 97 points! Go Oilers.

  113. Ducey says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Ducey,

    – Hey Ducey and Jdi: take a chill pill.I merely clicked on that link about those trainers, and the rage of the idiocy of previous regimes, and the OBC that for years I was in the very minor vocal group calling them out consistently: it all seeped out

    – I can see how you would read this as talking about your stuff: it wasn’t.My head got filled with white seething anger and I lost it for a moment.

    –I am not blaming these guys on our current status as high-injury.

    – And you guys are among my favourite posters: I come in peace

    – My bad: sorry to the broken posts!I’m glad I’m not in that space anymore.

    All good, Oilers brother.

  114. Chachi says:

    Rondo:
    Grant McCagg on the trade David Desharnais to Edmonton for Brandon Davidson:

    “I’m trying to think back to an old deal where Peter Chiarelli owed Marc Bergevin a favour, but none popped to mind, so I’m still trying to figure out why Edmonton would make this deal. Desharnais was productive a few years ago…but those days are over. The diminutive forward has seen plenty of time on the power play the past three seasons with little or no production. He would be trotted out time and again, and it was hard to comprehend, as in his past 75 games he failed to score a power-play goal and collected just three assists despite regular shifts on the first and second units.

    What was even more concerning was his constant basket hanging. A player who gets very few points should be working hard on the backcheck, especially playing center when you are supposed to protect your own slot and the opposing center, but he was regularly the last forward back, having a disconcerting habit of standing at the opponent’s goal line hoping a teammate gets a turnover until the puck was on its way back the other way and him a line or two behind the play. When an opponent was bringing the puck out of its own zone, the majority of the time Desharnais was nowhere to be seen, and more often than not would head to the bench for a change instead of trying to backcheck, leaving the next center hopelessly out of the play and often on the hook for a goal against.”

    https://recrutes.ca/habs-beef-up-on-trade-deadline-day/

    Easy, I’m a supporter.

  115. spoiler says:

    Good article by young Willis on Yzerman’s deadline moves. Perfect example of why one should NEVER consider a single trade on its own merits without good reason. JW doesn’t and brings some solid analysis because of his holistic approach.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/tampa-bay-needed-refit-trade-deadline/

    Brief Oiler mention in Friedman’s 30 (Ference)::

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-trades-left-table-deadline-day/

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    countrygirl,

    . I am a die had optimistic Oilers

    I didn’t know you’re from Boston.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    adamjames:
    Haven’t seen it discussed much, but any indication about why Chia was trying to move Ference’s cap hit?

    On the nose of it, I’d imagine it just gives a little breathing room bonus wise. Although I wonder if Ference’s cap gets successfully moved, if we’re discussing where Vrbata slots on the roster.

    Friedman had them hunting for Halak.

    #5 in his 30 thoughts – Fayne for Halak deal with some machinations: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-trades-left-table-deadline-day/

  118. JDï™ says:

    Chachi,

    I’m wondering if that will ever get old… and I just can’t see it happening.

  119. Chachi says:

    spoiler:
    Good article by young Willis on Yzerman’s deadline moves.Perfect example of why one should NEVER consider a single trade on its own merits without good reason. JW doesn’t and brings some solid analysis because of his holistic approach.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/tampa-bay-needed-refit-trade-deadline/

    Brief Oiler mention in Friedman’s 30 (Ference)::

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-trades-left-table-deadline-day/

    No mention that Yzerman’s salary cap issues were self inflicted? Fail.

  120. N64 says:

    Marc: LTIR can be used to extend the cap during the season, but not to reduce the final cap number at the end.

    Here’s a take similar to yours:

    http://www.fearthefin.com/2010/9/18/1697231/hockey-101-long-term-injury

    Bonuses also have in year and end year effects. End of season only ACTUAL team performance bonuses count to the cap. In year there must be room for ALL potential ELC bonuses. LTIR can help in season by raising the cap max limit. Also CBA 5.5(h)(ii) adds a cushion of up to 7.5% of max cap in season for ALL potential ELC performance bonuses. This lifts in season cap room like LTIR does.

  121. Chachi says:

    JDï™:
    Chachi,

    I’m wondering if that will ever get old… and I just can’t see it happening.

    It won’t ever stop being funny for me. I apologize in advance for those annoyed by its continued usage. I will apologize later too.

  122. Ducey says:

    Rondo:
    Grant McCagg on the trade David Desharnais to Edmonton for Brandon Davidson:

    “I’m trying to think back to an old deal where Peter Chiarelli owed Marc Bergevin a favour, but none popped to mind, so I’m still trying to figure out why Edmonton would make this deal. Desharnais was productive a few years ago…but those days are over. The diminutive forward has seen plenty of time on the power play the past three seasons with little or no production. He would be trotted out time and again, and it was hard to comprehend, as in his past 75 games he failed to score a power-play goal and collected just three assists despite regular shifts on the first and second units.

    What was even more concerning was his constant basket hanging. A player who gets very few points should be working hard on the backcheck, especially playing center when you are supposed to protect your own slot and the opposing center, but he was regularly the last forward back, having a disconcerting habit of standing at the opponent’s goal line hoping a teammate gets a turnover until the puck was on its way back the other way and him a line or two behind the play. When an opponent was bringing the puck out of its own zone, the majority of the time Desharnais was nowhere to be seen, and more often than not would head to the bench for a change instead of trying to backcheck, leaving the next center hopelessly out of the play and often on the hook for a goal against.”

    https://recrutes.ca/habs-beef-up-on-trade-deadline-day/

    I guess we will see. I never saw him bad or good, in fact, not at all.

    I would note that he played 42 minutes on the PP this year, and had 0 shots, and 2 assists. He was 7th in 5 x 4 PP time among MTL forwards. Not sure that qualifies as being trotted out again and again.

    Last year he was 5th in PP time among MTL forwards with 144 minutes. He only had 11 shots and 5 points. Not real great.

    I am not sure why he doesn’t generate more shots. Maybe he is a half wall guy. Maybe he is just a faceoff guy?

    Last year he was 8th in CF% among MTL forwards. This year he is 12th.

    I think Woodguy showed he might be a useful part in the bottom 6.

    We will see. With UFA looming and a new team, you have to think he might stop hanging baskets.

  123. Jethro Tull says:

    Oilers to finish woth 97pts with 97 winning the Art Ross with 97pts.

    Book it.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s an interesting graph that places Eberle at the cusp of being an “elite” NHLer

    https://twitter.com/OrgSixAnalytics/status/837670886140444672

    For the record, Eberle passed the 4 qualifications that GMoney and I put in place to determine “Elite Forwards” and is among the 60 NHL forwards WM considers “elite”

  125. Georges says:

    rickithebear,

    I’m trying to follow. Two questions:

    OFF ZS win
    174 X .50 = 87 CF
    Off ZS loss
    183 X .37 = 67.7 CA
    NEU ZS
    189 X .37 = 69.9 CF
    NEU ZS
    190 X.37 = 70.3 CA
    DEF ZS Win
    162 X .37 = 60 CF
    Def ZS loss
    207 X .50 = 103.5 CA

    1. Where are these numbers coming from: 174, 183, 189, 190, 162, 207?

    The pre Delow puck Data for Entry (.37) and Zone started pocession was (.5)

    2. What are .37 and .5?

  126. spoiler says:

    Rondo: The diminutive forward has seen plenty of time on the power play the past three seasons with little or no production. He would be trotted out time and again, and it was hard to comprehend, as in his past 75 games he failed to score a power-play goal and collected just three assists despite regular shifts on the first and second units.

    According to the numbers, Desharnais’ PP GF60 is incredibly consistent and has scarcely changed over the years. It has never been a great number nor a bad number, hovering in the mid 5 point Ohs.

    According to the numbers, his TOI on PPs is severely down this year, so he is no longer taking a “regular shift on the first and second units.”

    I would say McCagg, in getting his new venture going, is catering to his audience. and being somewhat sensationalist or over-the-top.

  127. Rondo says:

    spoiler,

    He is definitely opinionated and a bit of an ass.

  128. spoiler says:

    Chachi: No mention that Yzerman’s salary cap issues were self inflicted? Fail.

    You brought your own agenda and goals to someone else’s article? Seems like a funny way to read.

  129. hunter1909 says:

    countrygirl: hunter1909,

    Thanks for the bragging rights Hunter1909. I am a die had optimistic Oilers fan and enjoy coming to this site to learn and to be entertained. Thank you to all of the contributors who know a lot more about hockey than I do and thanks also to LT for providing and monitoring this discussion space. I stick by my original prediction of 97 points! Go Oilers.

    Congratulations for helping to lead tonight’s contest. Spitballing, a lot of the predictions were in the 85 points area – your fellow Oiler fans have taken a lot of abuse over the past 10 years wandering in Lowe’s desert.

  130. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s an interesting graph that places Eberle at the cusp of being an “elite” NHLer

    https://twitter.com/OrgSixAnalytics/status/837670886140444672

    For the record, Eberle passed the 4 qualifications that GMoney and I put in place to determine “Elite Forwards” and is among the 60 NHL forwards WM considers “elite”

    Until he bombs in the playoffs I’m giving both Eberle and RNH a mulligan for this season. It’s mean to expect either of them to even know what playoff hockey is anymore.

  131. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s an interesting graph that places Eberle at the cusp of being an “elite” NHLer

    https://twitter.com/OrgSixAnalytics/status/837670886140444672

    For the record, Eberle passed the 4 qualifications that GMoney and I put in place to determine “Elite Forwards” and is among the 60 NHL forwards WM considers “elite”

    You looked at Ebs and Nuge with and without Hall recently.

    Any change of opinion on Eberle off of that?

    I’ve done no work on this, just watching him play. With concern.

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: You looked at Ebs and Nuge with and without Hall recently.

    Any change of opinion on Eberle off of that?

    I’ve done no work on this, just watching him play. With concern.

    Eberle is much better away from Hall than I expected.

    RNH’s 5v5 scoring spikes when he’s not hard matched against the best.

    I think RNH can play against the best, but if you want 1.65pts/60 or better he needs high end help.

    Eberle can play on any line and contribute at a high level.

  133. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Oilers to finish woth 97pts with 97 winning the Art Ross with 97pts.

    Book it.

    That would be quite the story, indeed.

  134. spoiler says:

    JDï™:
    Chachi,

    I’m wondering if that will ever get old… and I just can’t see it happening.

    Lol, in this day and age of stupid trigger warnings, I think Chachi’s callbacks are brilliant. It’s original use by a Trump supporter added a delicious layer of irony too. Good on Chachi for getting the line to live in infamy.

  135. JDï™ says:

    Professor Q: quite the story

    And changing his number to 164 next year would be even better.

  136. blainer says:

    Pouzar: He and Pak had one shot attempt each last game. They are horrid. Poor Khaira is 70% CF away from those guys ( Super Small Sample Size Alert).

    Wow.. I do agree he is not the player he was in his first year. I really like JJ too. Hope they keep him up.

  137. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – They weight “Face-offs” and “Penalties” as a category: is it equal weighted, so a third?

    – Penalties only occur if there is contact between Ebs and another player: no contact, no penalties

    – He isn’t a C, maybe he has a high FO% on small sample size : awesome

  138. Chachi says:

    spoiler: You brought your own agenda and goals to someone else’s article?Seems like a funny way to read.

    That is a fair criticism. I am just disappointed Willis didn’t bring it up. Yzerman signed Filpulla to a terrible contract and is now being praised for moving it at the deadline. That isn’t an agenda that is a fact. Yzerman does deserve credit for moving that terrible deal, but it is tempered by the fact he signed Filpulla in the first place. If Chiarelli did the same thing I suspect Willis would be all over the fact that he was the architect of his own crappy situation.

  139. Dennis King says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Reinhart trains like a demon and arrives in camp fearsome

    So expect the same tripe we heard last 2 summers from the rights holders which turned out not to be even being close to true.

    When the Oilers gave up two prime picks to get his rights, did Bob Green tell the Oilers they’d have to remind the guy to come to camp in shape?

    I’ve been saying all year on Twitter that the forward depth is non-existent and that deal is a huge part part of it. Giving up those picks for a one-way lefthanded Dman?

    It still disgusts

  140. Dennis King says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Reinhart trains like a demon and arrives in camp fearsome

    So expect the same tripe we heard last 2 summers from the rights holders which turned out not to be even being close to true.

    When the Oilers gave up two prime picks to get his rights, did Bob Green tell the Oilers they’d have to remind the guy to come to camp in shape?

    I’ve been saying all year on Twitter that the forward depth is non-existent and that deal is a huge part part of it. Giving up those picks for a one-way lefthanded Dman?

    It still disgusts

    leadfarmer: Benning scratched again is a surprise.

    Skill being scratched and ignored is no longer a surprise anymore under this regime

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