THE OILERS AND THE OHL (2017 DRAFT)

If the Edmonton Oilers win the Stanley Cup in the next decade, the province of Ontario should demand a ring. Since the club decided to rebuild (again) in the early days of January of 2010, exceptional talent from the east has been flowing west at a rapid clip.

Note: As we are likely to be tight for time in April, I am beginning the draft series concerning leagues early this year.

 NHL PLAYERS/OHL PLAYERS DRAFTED BY YEAR

  • 2015 NHL draft—211 total players, 48 from the OHL
  • 2015 NHL draft—211 total players, 31 from the OHL
  • 2014 NHL draft—210 total players, 41 from the OHL
  • 2013 NHL draft—211 total players, 37 from the OHL
  • 2012 NHL draft–211 total players, 48 from the OHL
  • 2011 NHL draft, 211 total players, 46 from the OHL
  • 2010 NHL draft 210 total players, 42 from the OHL
  • 2009 NHL draft, 211 total players, 42 from the OHL
  • 2008 NHL draft, 211 total players, 46 from the OHL
  • FINAL TALLY: 1,897 total players, 381 from the OHL
  • PERCENTAGE: 20.08%

It was a monster season for the OHL at the 2017 draft, 48 players tying the highest recent number (2012). The NHL drafts 20 percent of their talent from the OHL, an insane number considering all of the other hot spots the provide talent. Lots of these kids are European, so the actual number of Canadians drafted is obscured.

 TOTAL PLAYERS/OHL PLAYERS DRAFTED BY OILERS

  • 2016 NHL draft—9 players total, 2 from the OHL
  • 2015 NHL draft—6 players total, 1 from the OHL
  • 2014 NHL draft—6 total players, 0 from the OHL
  • 2013 NHL draft—10 total players, 2 from the OHL
  • 2012 NHL draft–7 total players, 2 from the OHL.
  • 2011 NHL draft–9 total players, 1 from the OHL.
  • 2010 NHL draft–11 total players, 2 from the OHL.
  • 2009 NHL draft–7 total players, 0 from the OHL.
  • 2008 NHL draft–5 total players, 0 from the OHL.
  • FINAL TALLY: 70 total players, 10 from the OHL.
  • PERCENTAGE: 14.3%

The Oilers draft heavily from the OHL, but at a rate that is below NHL average. If you take Edmonton’s piece of the pie out of the overall totals, the other 29 teams actually draft from the Ontario league at a 20.3 percent clip. The OHL: Spend picks there.

 OHL OILERS SINCE 2008

  • 2008
  • 2009
  • 2010—Taylor Hall (437 NHL games); Ryan Martindale
  • 2011—Tobias Rieder (217 NHL games)
  • 2012—Nail Yakupov (285 NHL games); Daniil Zharkov
  • 2013—Darnell Nurse (100 NHL games); Kyle Platzer
  • 2014
  • 2015—Connor McDavid (111 NHL games)
  • 2016—Markus Niemelainen, Dylan Wells

I wanted the Oilers to take a bunch of OHL kids last season, they grabbed two. This year’s Ontario list isn’t as deep, but there is a lot of talent on the board for 2017.

OHL’S BEST, 2017

  1. R Owen Tippett, Mississauga Steelheads. Size, speed, sniper.
  2. RC Nick Suzuki, Owen Sound Attack. Speedy, creative, range of skills.
  3. RC Gabriel Vilardi, Windsor Spitfires. Creative C with size, speed average.
  4. RC Robert Thomas, London Knights. Speedy forward, creative.
  5. LD Nicholas Hague, Mississauga Steelheads. Rangy, aggressive, emerging offense.
  6. RD Conor Timmins, SSE Greyhounds. Smart, reads plays well, excellent passer.
  7. L Matthew Strome, Hamilton Bulldogs. Strong 2-way W, offensive potential.
  8. RC Ivan Lodnia, Erie Otters. Small skill C, great skater.
  9. G Mike DiPietro, Windsor Spitfires. 46gp, 2.21 .922.
  10. L Isaac Ratcliffe, Guelph Storm. Big winger, great skater, some skill.
  11. LD Noel Hoefenmayer, Ottawa 67’s. Mobile defender with two-way skills.
  12. LC Morgan Frost, SSM Greyhounds. Smart, skilled, and emerging.
  13. L Alex Formenton, London Knights. An absolute burner, has some skill.
  14. R Adam Ruzicka, Sarnia Sting. Big (6.04, 202) forward who plays intelligent game.
  15. RC Sasha Chmelevski, Ottawa 67s. Impressive skills, outststanding PP game.
  16. L Zach Gallant, Peterborough Petes. Fast skater, intelligent player, boxcars moving.
  17. RC Jack Studnicka, Oshawa Generals. Range of skills, he is posting quality offense. Not much buzz.
  18. L Mackenzie Entwistle, Hamilton Bulldogs. Big winger, who can skate, check, some skill.
  19. RD Eemeli Rasanen, Kingston Frontenacs. Giant defender with skill, mobility.
  20. L Jonah Gadjovich, Owen Sound Attack. Emerging PF, 40-goal man. Average speed.
  21. C Kevin Hancock, Owen Sound Attack. Draft re-entry having a fine offensive season.
  22. RC Nathan Schnarr, Guelph Storm. Big center with speed, a little shy offensively.
  23. L Jason Robertson, Kingston Frontenacs. Big winger with a good shot. Speed hurts him.
  24. LC Austen Keating, Ottawa 67s. Offensive center, more consistent this season.
  25. LC Ben Jones, Niagara Ice Dogs. I think he might be a sleeper. Playmaker.
  26. RC Greg Meireles, Kitchener Rangers. Smaller forward, speedy, responsible.
  27. L Linus Nyman, Kingston Frontenacs. Small skill winger with good speed. 22 goals.
  28. RD Adam Thilander, North Bay Battalion. Impressive skills, could be massive value.
  29. LC Joseph Garreffa, Kitchener Rangers. Small speed merchant with skill.
  30. RD Brady Lyle, Brampton Battalion. Good size, speed two-way defender.
  31. L Macauley Carson, Sudbury Wolves. Scoring forward with size, 26 goals is a fine total.
  32. G Stephen Dhillon, Niagara Ice Dogs. SP in last two seasons: .908 and .914.
  33. LD Markus Phillips, Owen Sound Attack. Undersized two-way defender improved 16-17.
  34. L Kyle Maksimovich, Erie Otters. Small, very skilled player. I had him No. 14 same list a year ago.
  35. R Cole Coskey, Saginaw Spirit. Skill winger on a bad team. Probably better than my ranking.
  36. R Maksim Sushko, Owen Sound Attack. Impressive looking player, offense is shy.
  37. L Ryan McGregor, Sarnia Sting. Speed merchant running in place year two OHL.
  38. LD Jacob Paquette, Kingston Frontenacs. Shutdown defender, has a mean streak. Mobile.
  39. L Albert Michnac, Guelph Storm. Czech import scoring well (58, 13-22-35) first NA season
  40. C Matthew Philip, Niagara Ice Dogs. Smallish center has some skill.
  41. L Daniil Vertiy, North Bay Battalion. Inconsistent winger has potential.
  42. G Matt Villalta, SSM Greyhounds. Rookie with a .913 SP.
  43. C Logan DeNoble, Peterborough Petes. October 1997, small and skilled. 32 goals.
  44. L Nick McHugh, Kitchener Rangers. Energy winger with some (53, 11-10-21) skill.
  45. R Oliver Castleman, Niagara Ice Dogs. Small skill (60, 17-21-38) winger.
  46. LD Tom Hedberg, Barrie Colts. Two-way D is an August, 1999. Draft and follow.
  47. RD Cole Fraser, Peterborough Petes. Big (6.02, 192) blue with some mobility.
  48. RC Liam Hawel, Guelph Storm. Giant (6.05, 179) C improved offense after trade.
  49. LD Dmitri Samorukov, Guelph Storm. Big mobile defender.
  50. C Domenic Commisso, Oshawa Generals. Small rocket on skates, skilled. Eligible last year.

THE OILERS IN THE 2017 DRAFT

  • First Round: No. 22 overall
  • Third Round: No. 76 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overall
  • Fifth Round: No. 130 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overall
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overall
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall

I think the Oilers may end up trading down from No. 22 (Carolina has a bunch of picks) and grabbing that missing second round pick. Among the players who might be a good fit for Edmonton are Robert Thomas, Conor Timmins, Matthew Strome, Sasha Chmelevski and one guesses Matthew Strome will be scouted heavily, too.

Up next: The WHL.

OILERS POSITIONS OF NEED, LEAST TO MOST

  1. Center: If you include Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, this is one of the deepest positions in the entire NHL. Edmonton has no impact prospects bubbling under, but McDavid and Leon are clearly a big part of the future. I think Caggiula and Khaira are pretty good bets for NHL careers, not sure if either man will spend a lot of time at center (or on the top two lines). The rest are long shots, although Rasanen may end up being a better bet than the rest. Oilers are set here, but you can never have enough centers so don’t be surprised if they take Thomas (as an example).
  2. Left Defense:  At the big league level, the Oilers have youngsters Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse. Griffin Reinhart may or may not force himself into the lineup, but he better hurry because Caleb Jones and or Ziyat Paigin could be pushing soon. Add AHLers Jordan Oesterle and Dillon Simpson, who can also play RH side, and this spot is good. Highly unlikely we see an early pick spend on a LHD.
  3. Goal: It is still a problem area, I think that is fair. The club has a quality No. 1 in Cam Talbot and Laurent Brossoit has earned his shot at a backup role. Nick Ellis looks like a bona fide prospect, but he is in year one of his pro career. Is he better than Brossoit? Might be. Wells looks like a good prospect and Svoboda is stopping all pucks in the mist. Edmonton is likely to add at least one goalie in the draft and another one to the pro group over the summer.
  4. Right Defense: A lot of change and significant improvement in 2016 calendar year, including the acquisitions of Adam Larsson via trade and Matt Benning as a college free agent. Still, there is plenty of work to be done. Ethan Bear and recently signed CHL free agent Ryan Mantha will help in Bakersfield and at some point represent recall options. Filip Berglund and John Marino are good prospects who are developing, but are miles away. I think Edmonton may take a RHD, extremely unlikely to be in the first round.
  5. Right Wing: It was the weakest position one year ago, but the addition of Jesse Puljujarvi moves RW ahead of the port side. If Leon Draisaitl is listed as a RW, the need becomes far less but I don’t see the Oilers giving up on Leon as a center. After JP, the list might include Tyler Pitlick plus Patrick Russell. Edmonton is likely to draft a RW or a C who will end up on RW this year.
  6. Left Wing:  This position could be the weakest in the organization. The trade of Taylor Hall means the NHL team has no LW younger than 28 (Lucic, Maroon) on the everyday roster. Benson is an excellent prospect but injuries are impacting, Slepyshev has offensive potential, and centers like Caggiula could also be an option. Skill LW is the weakest prospect spot on the board. That’s how much Benson’s injury hurts.

My guess at the draft: Trade down for two seconds, grab two forwards with those picks, and then address RHD and goaltending as day two rolls along.

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43 Responses to "THE OILERS AND THE OHL (2017 DRAFT)"

  1. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Hi LT,

    Who has two seconds to offer? Or did you mean in successive years? Just curious, not being a dink.

    Also, fast forward to summer…funny how a year changes things. LW is the weakest position and C? Well good thing we have Barzal coming to take Nugey’s place! OK Now I am being a dink. I will see myself out. haha.

  2. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I think if your scenario plays out you could be right…think will see a 2-way C and a right handed W with some size. Then onto D and G.

  3. GMB3 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    I think if your scenario plays out you could be right…think will see a 2-way C and a right handed W with some size. Then onto D and G.

    Why not draft the best offensice C/W available? It seems to me depth C’s can be picked up on free agency just about every year, where real offensive talent needs to be drafted if it is to be acquired cheaply

  4. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Hi LT,

    Who has two seconds to offer? Or did you mean in successive years? Justcurious, not being a dink.

    Also, fast forward to summer…funny how a year changes things. LW is the weakest position and C? Well good thing we have Barzal coming to take Nugey’s place! OK Now I am being a dink. I will see myself out. haha.

    Carolina has a bunch, three seconds last time i looked.

    http://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Years/2017.htm

  5. stush18 says:

    Lowetide,

    Francis is doing a good job of rebuilding there. They could do themselves a favour by grabbing a top centreman at the draft one of these years.

    Too bad, he’s prolly not going to be there by the time they move to Quebec and start doing better lol

  6. treevojo says:

    Anybody else watching the Winnipeg-Pittsburgh game.

    Getting pretty dirty.

  7. adamjames says:

    GMB3: Why not draft the best offensice C/W available? It seems to me depth C’s can be picked up on free agency just about every year, where real offensive talent needs to be drafted if it is to be acquired cheaply

    I totally agree with this. Take fliers on the boom or bust offensive players and RH’d defense. You gotta assume one turns out eventually.

    Speaking of boom or bust offensive players, the Ho-Sang media love in today should provide some fuel for the Offense > Intangibles lobby.

  8. Ryan says:

    stush18:
    Lowetide,

    Francis is doing a good job of rebuilding there. They could do themselves a favour by grabbing a top centreman at the draft one of these years.

    Too bad, he’s prolly not going to be there by the time they move to Quebec and start doing better lol

    At this point, you guys are basically trolling me. 🙂

    Maybe a package around…

    Nuge and a 1st for Faulk and two second rounders.

  9. Professor Q says:

    treevojo:
    Anybody else watching the Winnipeg-Pittsburgh game.

    Getting pretty dirty.

    Byf being reckless again?

  10. VOR says:

    New Jersey has 36/50, Carolina has 37/57/58, Dallas has 39/52, Buffalo has 41/61, Tampa Bay has 44/47, Montreal has 55/62

  11. VOR says:

    As it stands fair value would be our first for picks 57/58 from Carolina or 55/62 from Montreal.

  12. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    As it stands fair value would be our first for picks 57/58 from Carolina or 55/62 from Montreal.

    So, that would work out to (using my last list) as

    L Nikita Popugaev, Prince George Cougars (WHL)

    for

    CAROLINA
    RD Artyom Minulin, Swfit Current Broncos (WHL). Big defender with emerging skills.
    R Lukas Elvenes, Rogle (SuperElite). Highly skilled winger, terrific hands.

    MONTREAL
    L Zach Gallant, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Fast skater, intelligent player, boxcars moving.
    C Jesper Boqvist, Brynas (SHL). Average size, good speed and skill.

  13. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    GMB3,

    Why not, indeed? I was saying what I could see the Oilers doing, not what I wish. If I had my way I would go skill, skill, skill, so long as it comes with a hockey brain.

  14. VOR says:

    That was based on the latest Schuckers Draft Pick Value Chart (2016) with the Oilers picking 23rd which has a value of 205 and values for 55 of 113 and 62 being 101 for a total of 214 or 57 at 111 and 58 at 109 for a total of 220. Typically in these deals the team trading down gets a slight increase in value for the loss of the appearance of value.

  15. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    VOR,

    The Belichick special.

    I just hope Chia finds us his next Pastrnak. What? Too much to ask? 😉

  16. gwdsfo says:

    Anyone else looking forward to the Justin Schultz return to the capitol city tribute video?

  17. VOR says:

    NYCOIL,

    It works in football. Maybe we get lucky and it works out for us.

    LT,

    One of the reasons I think trading down to get two second rounders might actually happen is that it could well be part of a bigger deal. Both Montreal and Carolina have good (though not great) young forward prospects that could help fix the hole in our prospect pool.

  18. Georges says:

    treevojo:
    Anybody else watching the Winnipeg-Pittsburgh game.

    Getting pretty dirty.

    How is Justin Schultz this good?

    44 points
    Tied for 5th among defensemen.

    62.2 5v5 GF%
    11th out of 180 defensemen who’ve played 500 min. at 5v5

    70.7 all-situations GF%
    1st out of 188 defensemen who’ve played 500 min. in all situations

    1.22 5v5 P/60
    8th out of 180 defensemen who’ve played 500 min. at 5v5

    2.22 all-situations P/60
    2nd out of 188 defensemen who’ve played 500 min. in all situations

    He’s going to prove MacT right. Future Norris winner. In hindsight, I guess this will be the biggest knock on Chia and TMac. The biggest mistake they both made with the roster they inherited.

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    VOR,

    The Belichick special.

    I just hope Chia finds us his next Pastrnak. What? Too much to ask?

    Its funny you mention getting Pastrnak by trading out of the ~23 hole when he was taken 25th.

    I think decisions like these need to be made on the floor.

    Have the deals worked out before hand obv, but sometimes guy falls who rate so much higher than the rest of your list the added value of trading down is trumped.

    I know this draft pales next to last year’s in depth, but STL just signed their 25th overall pick from last year, Tage Thompson

    6’5″ RHC putting up 1pt/gm in the NCAA Div1 as a 19 year old.

    I’d be good with that. 🙂

  20. who says:

    I don’t see the value in trading down from 22ov for two picks in the 50s. Picking the best forward available at 22 seems like the smarter play to me. Better chance of getting a highly skilled player.
    Re Schultz. He was done in Edmonton, fans were booing him out of the building. His confidence was shot and it wasn’t going to get any better here. Good for him for turning it around in Pittsburgh. Classic example of proper usage bringing out the best in a player. Not faulting Chia for this. It was a mercy trade.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: How is Justin Schultz this good?

    44 points
    Tied for 5th among defensemen.

    62.2 5v5 GF%
    11th out of 180 defensemen who’ve played 500 min. at 5v5

    70.7 all-situations GF%
    1st out of 188 defensemen who’ve played 500 min. in all situations

    1.22 5v5 P/60
    8th out of 180 defensemen who’ve played 500 min. in all situations

    2.22 all-situations P/60
    2nd out of 188 defensemen who’ve played 500 min. in all situations

    He’s going to prove MacT right. Future Norris winner. In hindsight, I guess this will be the biggest knock on Chia and TMac. The biggest mistake they both made with the roster they inherited.

    Before Letang went down he was 19% TOI vs Elites. Among the lowest % in the NHL. Hanifin was the lowest I saw at 18%.

    Since Letang went down he’s playing much tougher comp and is now up to 25% on the year.

    He always had the offensive ability and many of us begged for them to play him at 3RD due to his inability to defend, but Because Oilers it was 1st pair or bust. And he busted here.

    He was an uncomfortable subject for fancystats because he was among the best (of a bad lot) CF% wise, but the GF% was terrible due to inability to defend and inability to play a NHL caliber goalie all against the best in the NHL who eat that shit up.

    Letang went down Feb 21 and so Schultz went up the roster that day.

    Schultz on ice results from Feb 22nd to today.

    CF% 51.8%
    PIT CF% Schultz off 55.6%

    GF% 42.1%
    PIT GF% Schutlz off 58.4%

    Pts/60 1.34

    So since he moved up the roster the team is much better with him off the ice, his GF% is way below his CF%, but he still gets points.

    Hey, that sounds like Justin Schultz!!

    Very good skater and play maker who should never see the best the other team offers.

    Someone will probably pay him a lot based on this year, play him too high up the roster and think “where the hell is the guy I signed?”

    The answer will be “the guy you signed played 3rd pair with Crosby on line, Maklin on another and Kessell on the 3rd line in case you need him too while Letang and Dumoulin do the heavy lifting”

    He’s a better version of Del Zotto.

  22. GMB3 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    VOR,

    The Belichick special.

    I just hope Chia finds us his next Pastrnak. What? Too much to ask?

    Martin Necas

  23. Georges says:

    VOR,

    I saw your posts on the draft yesterday. I looked at each team’s non-first round draft results a while back.

    I think you’re right that some teams are better than other teams at finding value when selecting forwards.

    LAK’s forward picks from the 2005 draft to the 2015 draft had played about 3000 games in the NHL when I did the analysis last year. VCR was at the other end; I think their players over the same time frame had managed to play under 300 games.

    There was a small but significant correlation between having more picks and getting more value (as measured in player games).

    But very few teams showed the ability to consistently find high-scoring forwards in the 2nd and later rounds.

    The Bruins found Lucic, Marchand, and Spooner They were the best.

    Tampa Bay found Kucherov and Palat.

    Other teams like Calgary (Gaudreau) and Dallas (Benn) hit the jackpot just once.

    Most came up empty.

    The Kings had success in finding regular NHL players like Dwight King, Nick Shore, and Jordan Nolan. It could be that the Kings just managed to make these low scorers into regular players because of the strength of their systems. They also got very good players in Toffoli and Simmonds.

    As you pointed out, finding the Jamie Benns in the 2nd and later rounds is very difficult. In the past decade, other than the Bruins and Tampa, no one seems to have pulled it off more than once.

    I wonder, then, if it’s the scout’s job to find the Jamie Benns (elite scorers), the Carl Hagelins (good scorers) or the Dwight Kings (regular players).

  24. Centre of attention says:

    Interesting. Reading that CCM is going up for sale by Adidas. Apparently their sales have plummeted since 2015.

    Weird, considering Connor signed there with them in 2015 (I believe before he was officially drafted) you would think kids would be getting a CCM sticks or something right?

    Odd that there was such a sudden drop in sales. It wouldn’t be surprising to hear that price is a factor. The cost of equipping kids with new equipment nowadays is getting out of control.

  25. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Interesting. It’s all due to competition.

    I don’t see how the numbers I saw can fit comfortably with the numbers you posted.

    I’ll have a look. Thanks.

  26. Rondo says:

    GMB3,

    He will go high in the draft just like Eeli Tolvanen who Oilers would like,

  27. kinger_OIL says:

    Centre of attention:

    Odd that there was such a sudden drop in sales. It wouldn’t be surprising to hear that price is a factor. The cost of equipping kids with new equipment nowadays is getting out of control.

    – I have an interesting take on Hockey. Im sure at the NHL level it will be fine for a few more generations, but as the father of a 7 year old who plays, I’m amazed at how different it is

    – Now I grew up in a small town, and I don’t know if it’s the small town or the times, but me and my friends we consumed hockey. Lived and breathed it.

    – Now, in Toronto, and this generation: hockey seems to be something that is just on the “to do list”. Sure my boy likes it when he’s there, but he and his pals do so many other things. Hockey isn’t nearly a big part of his or peers lives.

    – I could go on about the vacuous money-grabbing soul-sucking deviation of youth hockey in the GTA, where rep hockey means 5-6 times a week on skates, always organized and structured and a keeping up with the Jones with camps in summer, shooting coaches, etc.

    – I just wonder what it means in terms of blow-back in a generation or two for the sport

    – To what extent does playing a sport impact ones interest in sports when they grow up? I grew up as did my pals playing every sport: hockey, baseball, golf, tennis, track. But they were all for fun. I see far less of that today. Parents seem to put kids into one sport and go all in from an early age.

    – So CoA: cost of equipment is only part of it, in terms of risk to participation

    p.s. Great post LT!

  28. VOR says:

    Woodguy,

    One of the things I think I have learned from my draft project is that each year the draft is shaped by reaction and possibly over-reaction. Every GM and scouting staff is in some ways repsonding to what every other GM and scouting staff has done up to that point. Now that is obvious because a player who has been picked is no longer eligible to be picked.

    However, they also react to emerging trends. If a lot of jumbo sized players are picked early later picking teams will jump on the band wagon, or at least most will. Their are some teams that consistently go counter trend. If big guys are the special du jour they go for micro-smurfs. Only a small handful of teams consistently work their boards with discipline.

    I don’t know if one strategy is better than any other. For all I know jumping on the trends may be very smart. Or maybe being all contrarian is the way to go. Perhaps I am right in assuming you have to thine ownself be true.

    What does this have to do with your point about waiting to make sure there is no ‘faller” that offers great value than you can achieve in trading down? I think there is a possible risk premium you can add to what you get back in a trade down to compensate for that specific risk. A “disciplined” draft team might well be happy to accept that extra risk for the right price. Perhaps being prepared to do the deal before the draft and before the Oilers know if there are falling players brings Buffalo into the conversation as a trade partner. Now the Oilers are trading for more value with the exact same asset (our first) in return for taking the additional risk.

  29. LMHF#1 says:

    kinger_OIL: – I have an interesting take on Hockey.Im sure at the NHL level it will be fine for a few more generations, but as the father of a 7 year old who plays, I’m amazed at how different it is

    I’m actually concerned about a different sort of difference.

    My son is about to start playing sports. He’s into golf, so that one’s easy as it is either he and I or the family.

    Wife insisted on soccer – which apparently takes place at 930am on Saturdays now and involves parents standing on the field??? What the??? And half the “game” is practice? Come on…

    I’m already dreading the start of hockey. We were spoiled – full sheet of ice, real games from the age of 5 (albeit with a buzzer every three minute shift), and none of this “you don’t get to score anymore” crap. It’s going to drive me nuts to watch him be stunted by this current process.

    We were there to have fun of course – but you know what is a hell of a lot of fun for a ton of kids like me? – competing, scoring and WINNING. Being held back and taught that nothing means anything isn’t helpful.

  30. npanciroli says:

    I really wish McLellan was a more aggressive line matcher. I think this team would be better if he didn’t drunkenly send out certain lines and pairings in bizarre situations.

  31. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    If you ignore WPG today, that’s 5 games PIT has played since Feb. 22. They went 3-2 in those games.

    Feb. 25th was Schultz’s first game back from injury, the first of the 5 games played over that span.

    Using GF% in a 5-game sample will stretch the results a bit. Schultz went 3-4 on 5v5 goals. His teammates went 7-5. Most of his bad results were in his first 3 games back from injury, including a rough outing against Chicago.

    I’m looking at his game log on nhl.com and it looks like he took a big step forward starting in Dec. His minutes increased over that time frame. I don’t know how you can hide/shelter a defenseman and consistently give him over 20 minutes a game.

    If your take is that Schultz will wilt when given more minutes, I guess we’ll find that out in what’s left of this season and the playoffs. I think, to a certain extent, his game log is already telling us something about his ability to handle workload.

    It’s mind-boggling to me, though. I expected him to be better once he got to a better team. (He couldn’t get worse, could he?) But those numbers are extraordinary and his WOWY’s look just fine. He’s a big contributor to a team that’s going to try to repeat. Justin Wow.

  32. HT Joe says:

    Good for Justin Schultz… his numbers with and without the Oilers (simple boxscores only… sorry) show two completely different players:

    TEAM GP G A P +/-
    Oilers 248 28 73 101 -78
    Peng 95 13 44 57 +36

    By converting them to a per 82gp basis…
    TEAM GP G A P +/-
    Oilers 82 9 24 33 -26
    Peng 82 11 38 49 +31

    Good for Justin.

    *EDIT* FINE.. not completely different.. he just seems so strikingly better with a good team and a coach that isn’t compelled (?) to play him top pairing…

  33. Bruce Wayne says:

    LMHF#1: I’m actually concerned about a different sort of difference.

    My son is about to start playing sports. He’s into golf, so that one’s easy as it is either he and I or the family.

    Wife insisted on soccer – which apparently takes place at 930am on Saturdays now and involves parents standing on the field??? What the??? And half the “game” is practice? Come on…

    I’m already dreading the start of hockey. We were spoiled – full sheet of ice, real games from the age of 5 (albeit with a buzzer every three minute shift), and none of this “you don’t get to score anymore” crap. It’s going to drive me nuts to watch him be stunted by this current process.

    We were there to have fun of course – but you know what is a hell of a lot of fun for a ton of kids like me? – competing, scoring and WINNING. Being held back and taught that nothing means anything isn’t helpful.

    This post couldn’t be more wrong.

  34. JDï™ says:

    Bruce Wayne: This post couldn’t be more wrong.

    Have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight?

  35. jake70 says:

    The Schultz tribute video , if one is shown, should include Tobias’ 2 shorties within the same PK,,,,,,,no maybe not a good idea

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Interesting. It’s all due to competition.

    I don’t see how the numbers I saw can fit comfortably with the numbers you posted.

    I’ll have a look. Thanks.

    His offensive numbers are due mostly who he plays with and his ability.

    PIT Crosby On GF% 58.82%, GF60 3.49
    PIT Crosby OFF GF% 57.%% GF60 2.91

    Those are ridiculous numbers and rates.

    He contributes to it, but he’s not driving it.

    The fact that they hide him the best the can is a testament to their player evaluation.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    Woodguy,

    One of the things I think I have learned from my draft project is that each year the draft is shaped by reaction and possibly over-reaction. Every GM and scouting staff is in some ways repsonding to what every other GM and scouting staff has done up to that point. Now that is obvious because a player who has been picked is no longer eligible to be picked.

    However, they also react to emerging trends. If a lot of jumbo sized players are picked early later picking teams will jump on the band wagon, or at least most will. Their are some teams that consistently go counter trend. If big guys are the special du jour they go for micro-smurfs. Only a small handful of teams consistently work their boards with discipline.

    I don’t know if one strategy is better than any other. For all I know jumping on the trends may be very smart. Or maybe being all contrarian is the way to go. Perhaps I am right in assuming you have to thine ownself be true.

    What does this have to do with your point about waiting to make sure there is no ‘faller” that offers great value than you can achieve in trading down? I think there is a possible risk premium you can add to what you get back in a trade down to compensate for that specific risk. A “disciplined” draft team might well be happy to accept that extra risk for the right price. Perhaps being prepared to do the deal before the draft and before the Oilers know if there are falling players brings Buffalo into the conversation as a trade partner. Now the Oilers are trading for more value with the exact same asset (our first) in return for taking the additional risk.

    Thanks for that Vor.

    Love your draft stuff.

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    If you ignore WPG today, that’s 5 games PIT has played since Feb. 22. They went 3-2 in those games.

    Feb. 25th was Schultz’s first game back from injury, the first of the 5 games played over that span.

    Using GF% in a 5-game sample will stretch the results a bit. Schultz went 3-4 on 5v5 goals. His teammates went 7-5. Most of his bad results were in his first 3 games back from injury, including a rough outing against Chicago.

    I’m looking at his game log on nhl.com and it looks like he took a big step forward starting in Dec. His minutes increased over that time frame. I don’t know how you can hide/shelter a defenseman and consistently give him over 20 minutes a game.

    If your take is that Schultz will wilt when given more minutes, I guess we’ll find that out in what’s left of this season and the playoffs. I think, to a certain extent, his game log is already telling us something about his ability to handle workload.

    It’s mind-boggling to me, though. I expected him to be better once he got to a better team. (He couldn’t get worse, could he?) But those numbers are extraordinary and his WOWY’s look just fine. He’s a big contributor to a team that’s going to try to repeat. Justin Wow.

    Yeah, the Letang-less stretch fits my narrative nicely so I used it, but small samples and all…..

    I have no doubt he’s a better player today than he was in EDM.

    I also have no doubt that he’s still weak in the Dzone, particularly around his own net.

    I also have no doubt that playing with 2 of the top 5 players in the game and then Kessell on the 3rd line will impact anyone’s number and amplify them.

    He’s a better version of Del Zotto (good offensively, doesn’t defend well).

    That’s a NHL player who can play for a long time.

    That’s not a Norris guy though.

  39. LMHF#1 says:

    Bruce Wayne: This post couldn’t be more wrong.

    Neat.

  40. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne: This post couldn’t be more wrong.

    Yeah! Soccer starts at 9:45 on Saturdays not 9:30! Good job Bruce Wayne!

  41. PhrankLee says:

    Bruce Wayne: LMHF#1: I’m actually concerned about a different sort of difference.
    My son is about to start playing sports. He’s into golf, so that one’s easy as it is either he and I or the family.
    Wife insisted on soccer – which apparently takes place at 930am on Saturdays now and involves parents standing on the field??? What the??? And half the “game” is practice? Come on…
    I’m already dreading the start of hockey. We were spoiled – full sheet of ice, real games from the age of 5 (albeit with a buzzer every three minute shift), and none of this “you don’t get to score anymore” crap. It’s going to drive me nuts to watch him be stunted by this current process.
    We were there to have fun of course – but you know what is a hell of a lot of fun for a ton of kids like me? – competing, scoring and WINNING. Being held back and taught that nothing means anything isn’t helpful.
    This post couldn’t be more wrong.

    Ha ha. You don’t even have parents, dude!

  42. GMB3 says:

    PhrankLee: Ha ha. You don’t even have parents, dude!

    This made me spit out my coffee.

    Good laughs.

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