MACHINE HEAD

From time to time, one of our younger members will ask me a question about the 1980’s. I do my best to describe it, but great hockey moments are best witnessed and shared and pressed into our collective memory. I asked the elders about the greats, and even saw Gordie Howe play, but not the Howe of youth. It seems to me that this team, should it become a great one, will have two rabid fanbases: The elders, who are thrilled to watch greatness the second time around, and the youngers, who fell in love with the team somewhere along the line and stubbornly stood on the edge of a dream for a decade or longer. Last night reminded me of the 1980’s, but it was also new and fresh and I look forward to those memories to press from this team, starting now. I have been blessed. I wish the same for you.

  PICTURES OF HOME, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2016: 8-8-0, goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2017: 3-2-1, goal differential +4
  • Oilers after 70, 2015-16: 27-36-7, goal differential -38
  • Oilers after 70, 2016-17: 37-24-9, goal differential +20

The Last time Edmonton won 37, Craig MacTavish was thinking he had been too long at the fair. The team is on track for 43 wins now, the most since 1988. It was a fun time at Rogers Place last night, and the year over year looks damned fabulous. We’re on to Abbotsford.

 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Detroit, NY Islanders, Pittsburgh, Montreal (Expected: 2-2-0) (Actual 1-2-1)
  • At home to: Dallas, Boston, Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 3-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: Anaheim, Colorado (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-5-1, 15 points in 13 games
  • Current results: 3-2-1, 7 points in 6 games

This is about what we expected from March, the Oilers are now on track with what we projected. The goals for has gone crazy lately, and that’s a good thing for sure. The Edmonton Oilers are a fun team to watch and we are probably going to have playoff games involving this group in April. Feels so good.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Larsson looked good to my eye, with the understanding that it was not your ordinary 2017 game. I thought the pairing was especially effective at 5×5, going 10-11 in 12:39. Went 6-4 against Stafford-Krejci-Pastrnak, the pairing finished +1 on a night when Edmonton outscored the opposition 4-1 at evens.
  • Klefbom made another Serge Savard move last night, where he waited for the Bruins rusher to get close to him and then deked him to go on his merry way. He reminds me so much of Savard. Seriously.
  • Sejera-Russell were chasing too much but they also faced very tough opposition (almost 10 total 5×5 minutes against the Bergeron and Krejci lines combined). They went 11-15 in 11:58 and it looked even more chaotic in real time. Went 4-7 against Marchand-Bergeron-Backes in 6 minutes and 7-6 against Pastrnak.
  • Nurse-Benning had an adventure, but Benning was +2 and Nurse +3 with two assists on the night. Suspect we may see Mr. Gryba in on Saturday night. Pairing went 10-20 in 12:40 while managing to go 7-1 with McDavid. Fabulous rush by Nurse on the Slepyshev goal, really effective in puck transporting. Pairing went 4-11 against Belesky-Spooner-Vatrano but 6-3 against the Krecji line. A weird night for the pairing, Nurse had many good moments, young Benning seemed in a hurry to get to the wrong spot. Bruins are a devilish team when they are on.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 32 of 36, .889.
  • Numbers via Natural Stat TrickHockeystats.ca and NHL.com. Check out further brilliance from Oilers Nerd Alert below. The guy kicks ass.

1LINE

  • The McDavid line went 11-12 Corsi for (Leon and CMD, Maroon spent extended time in the sin bin).
  • The trio had seven shots, and three goals. That is unusual.
  • McDavid went 10-8 against the Krejci line,  in 9:25 head to head. If a player faces the opposition center 60 percent of his 5×5 time, chances are someone is line matching or both men are happy enough with the match.
  • Chara was a bull against 97, going 7-3 and thwarting a few sorties with that blasted wingspan.
  • Anton Slepyshev scored while playing on this line Patrick Maroon in the penalty box.
  • All three regular members of this line have 24 goals on the season. That makes 72 goals, or a goal-per-game plus a little. GAG line? Already taken, but few of us remember that fantastic Rangers trio.
  • McDavid’s recent surge has him No. 2 in the NHL among forwards (750+ minutes) in 5×5/60 scoring.

2LINE

  • Two goals for this line and they played tough minutes effectively. Eight shots on goal and two goals, there are 45 goals this season from the trio.
  • Nuge line played 10:58 together and went 10-15. Nuge was 0-10 with Darnell Nurse at 5×5/60, that is hard to do. The line went (Nuge) 7-15 against the Marchand-Bergeron-Backes line, toughest assignment on the board and it was their responsibility for almost 10 minutes last night. Lordy.

3LINE

  • David Desharnais started a fire on the 3line and the result is increased offensive opportunities at both ends of the ice.
  • Benoit Pouliot has come alive, and Zack Kassian is driving too.
  • Wonderful to see, the chances against are going to be a concern come playoff time. DD reminds me of Derek Roy, in style and results.
  • Trio went 5-9 Corsi 5×5 in about nine minutes. They went 5-5 against the Spooner line, satisfactory performance.

4LINE

  • We talked earlier this week about having options on the 4line who can step up and contribute. We saw it in live action last night, as Anton Slepyshev took a few spins with the McDavid trio. There is a dramatic element to his game and he didn’t look out of place with 97. I hope we get to see him there again soon.
  • The line went 6-10 on the evening at 5×5, including 2-7 against the Spooner line.

STANDINGS

This is a good table, although the Blues and Kings won last night, too. Edmonton is up on LAK by eight points, with 12 to play. If the Oilers grab a point per game, and that seems reasonable, they would finish with 95 points. The Kings would need to go 10-1-1 to beat Edmonton. This is the bleeding out period, some proud players in those Kings uniforms but they may have left it too late. The Flames play the Stars tonight, so drink in the current standings.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. It is going to be a fun morning, very cool guests:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Canada’s NHL team is ripping it up, and the Leafs are doing well, too!
  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. Boston’s most prominent Oilers blogger is in our fair city, we will ask him about his Edmonton experience so far.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Is Matt’s NCAA bracket still intact? Plus, when do you give Talbot a rest?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Oilers close to clinching a playoff spot, how far can they fly?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

TODAY AT 5

Condors have a big weekend ahead, at 5 this afternoon I will have a post about the AHL men who have made enough progress this season to push ahead of the field. Think Joey Legs.

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152 Responses to "MACHINE HEAD"

  1. monsterbater says:

    Reposting from last night’s thread….

    I have been requesting The Band for the last several years so please go with your gut and stick with that. There are so many great songs and song titles of theirs and with the artists they played for
    – Life is a Carnival (McDavid,)
    – Up on cripple creek (Pitlick?)
    – The weight (Talbot, carrying the goalering on his back)
    – The night they drove ol dixie down (hendricks if he resigns lol)
    – Helpless (Kris Russell)
    – Who do you love?
    It Gold LT, GOLD!

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    Nice picture of Drai and the trainer in what can only be a secret Masonic handshake.

    Meaningful games. In March. Lordy.

  3. npanciroli says:

    Great write-up LT. How much of the CF results can be attributed to score effects? I have to admit that I don’t fully understand score effects and how they change the CF numbers etc.

    Also really happy McLellan was rewarded with playing as much skill in the lineup as possible.

  4. Bruce Wayne says:

    Was at the game last night. It is a lot easier to cheer for the team when you are in the building and they score seven goals.

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    This may upset some of our more ‘life experienced’ posters, but DaftPunk bears consideration for Harder, Better, Stronger, Faster alone.

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Was at the game last night.It is a lot easier to cheer for the team when you are in the building and they score seven goals.

    Did you see Lucic’s goal? Ain’t never seen a seventh rounder score like that.

  7. Lowetide says:

    npanciroli:
    Great write-up LT. How much of the CF results can be attributed to score effects? I have to admit that I don’t fully understand score effects and how they change the CF numbers etc.

    Also really happy McLellan was rewarded with playing as much skill in the lineup as possible.

    Score effects certainly in play, really the entire game to be honest. It was 3-0 early and then so many penalties. I can see why people might think (for instance) Matt Benning had a good game, but I thought he was a travelling man in a bad way. Tough assignments for sure, but would not be surprised to see Gryba on Saturday.

  8. frjohnk says:

    Fantastic game last night!

    That was the best game they played since…….last game?

    2 exciting games in a row.

    LA could catch the Blues
    or
    the Blues could catch the Oilers
    but
    LA wont catch the Oilers.

  9. Bruce Wayne says:

    npanciroli:
    Great write-up LT. How much of the CF results can be attributed to score effects? I have to admit that I don’t fully understand score effects and how they change the CF numbers etc.

    Also really happy McLellan was rewarded with playing as much skill in the lineup as possible.

    Score effects definitely came into play. At one point in the second period the Oilers were almost doubling the Bruins in shots.

    Has someone studied score effects to try and determine why it occurs? Is it intentional, as a result of tactics, or is it psychological, part of letting off the gas? Both?

    Some of it is almost certainly tactical. You could see it in the third period when the Oilers dumped the puck into the corner almost every team, and only tried to strike with odd man chances. But if this is the case it should be possible to study whether these are good tactics?

    Another question about score effects. We know that your shot percentage goes down when you have the lead, but what are the elements of this change. Do both SF and SA go down, but SF goes down more? (in which case perhaps a reasonable strategy). Does shot quality change as well? If shot quality against does not go down with score effects, then this is evidence that it is a bad strategy?

    Any answer monkeys in the house?

  10. commonfan14 says:

    Lowetide: The Flames play the Sabres tonight, so drink in the current standings.

    It’s the Stars in Calgary tonight.

  11. Bruce Wayne says:

    Jethro Tull: Did you see Lucic’s goal? Ain’t never seen a seventh rounder score like that.

    That was a classic 7th rounder goal. Just stand there doing nothing and let the good players bank one off you.

    Now did you see Eberle’s assist. That’s what a good player looks like.

    Or Maroon, that’s what a good, big player looks like.

    Lucic, on the other hand, is useless and expensive. The no trade portion of the no movement clause is redundant because no one would take him. That is evident.

  12. Bruce Wayne says:

    frjohnk:
    Fantastic game last night!

    That was the best game they played since…….last game?

    2 exciting games in a row.

    LA could catch the Blues
    or
    the Blues could catch the Oilers
    but
    LA wont catch the Oilers.

    Agreed. When I imagine this team with Hall it is last night every night.

  13. zatch says:

    Jethro Tull,

    They have some fun collaborations too.

  14. N64 says:

    frjohnk:
    Fantastic game last night!

    That was the best game they played since…….last game?

    2 exciting games in a row.

    LA could catch the Blues
    or
    the Blues could catch the Oilers
    but
    LA wont catch the Oilers.

    And Blues can knock Preds to the wild card. Oil can reduce Ducks or Flames to wild card . Wild times.

  15. PhrankLee says:

    As lopsided as that score was the Oilers were lucky to have all three periods end in the nick of time.

    Did they ever go after Benning. Wow.

    Cam.

  16. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce Wayne: Agreed.When I imagine this team with Hall it is last night every night.

    defensive lapses every possession change, bad penalty killing and poor goal tending?

    Tuesday’s game would be a better one to have had Hall for. That was a smack down. Last night was a track meet.

    If Hall had played for us Tuesday, Ruff would have been done.

  17. rogue says:

    GAG line?

    Hatfield-Ratelle-Gilbert

  18. doritogrande says:

    This may upset some of our more ‘life experienced’ posters, but DaftPunk bears consideration for Harder, Better, Stronger, Faster alone.

    Last two adjectives are reversed. Nice try looking hip, old guy.

  19. Georges says:

    Anyone understand or have thoughts on PK strategy and tactics? Going to look at the numbers over the weekend. It would help to have some working hypotheses. My current hypothesis is our PK is no good.

  20. Georges says:

    Bruce Wayne: That was a classic 7th rounder goal.Just stand there doing nothing and let the good players bank one off you.

    Now did you see Eberle’s assist.That’s what a good player looks like.

    Or Maroon, that’s what a good, big player looks like.

    Lucic, on the other hand, is useless and expensive.The no trade portion of the no movement clause is redundant because no one would take him.That is evident.

    You, me, and Peter Cetera are going to go Lucic’s mansion one day and we’re going to sing him Hard to Say I’m Sorry. We’ll skip or maybe hum the uncomfortable sexy parts. Stick to the apology parts.

  21. slopitch says:

    Fun game last night. Typically my wife shuts down after the 1st and goes to bed. We were about 30 minutes behind because of the kid and we have the technology now. Anyways, she checks the score, pours a glass of wine and says “I think Im gonna stay up and watch the game”. Dammit. At that point I knew the Oilers did well but still fun to watch nonetheless. I wont complain about a fun Oilers win. Not after the last 10 years. Not ever.

    Also, Benoit Pouliot looked good last night. I gave him a few bad reviews this season (last game even?) so gotta point my hat to him. Honestly, if the secondary scoring continues we should have a long spring.

    Happy St Pattys Day all!

  22. Ducey says:

    Bruce Wayne: That was a classic 7th rounder goal.Just stand there doing nothing and let the good players bank one off you.

    Now did you see Eberle’s assist.That’s what a good player looks like.

    Or Maroon, that’s what a good, big player looks like.

    Lucic, on the other hand, is useless and expensive.The no trade portion of the no movement clause is redundant because no one would take him.That is evident.

    Heh, you look sillier on this every day.

    Lucic is 4th in team scoring, one point behind Eberle and 5 up on Maroon. His 41 pts put him 30th among LW according to NHL.com. That would be 1st line.

    He is a massive 5 points (1 goal) behind Hall. I am sure you will point out that Hall has played fewer games, but he always plays fewer games. He is brittle. Lucic plays every game. And yeah, he spends lots of time in front of the goalie. That’s the point. Maybe good teams don’t spend all their time shooting off the rush and on the perimeter. Maybe good teams intimidate, rather than be intimidated.

    And Larsson is sublime.

    Most people have moved on and grudgingly admit maybe Chia knows what he is doing. You just can’t get over the fact you are wrong.

  23. Pouzar says:

    Ducey: Heh, you look sillier on this every day.

    If that’s possible.

  24. Hall Awaits says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Bruce Wayne: Agreed.When I imagine this team with Hall it is last night every night.

    So this is what never getting over an ex looks like.

  25. linkfromhyrule says:

    Another positive from last night is they are also catching up to Calgary’s mirage ROW column (seriously, how does it make sense to include 3×3 with regulation wins?).

    Slepyshev looked excellent last night, easily could have had another goal. I also loved how excited Connor got when Slepy scored.

    This team seems to be putting it together at the right time suddenly. Hopefully they stick with the same lineup next game, they were dynamite!

  26. PhrankLee says:

    Bohologo:
    Apologies to all the hippies on this site (I see you there in your beanbag chairs with your Grateful Dead records, through a cloud of something presumably disreputable), but if you can remember the 1980s, you weren’t really there.

    Word.

  27. Pajamah says:

    doritogrande:
    This may upset some of our more ‘life experienced’ posters, but DaftPunk bears consideration for Harder, Better, Stronger, Faster alone.

    Last two adjectives are reversed. Nice try looking hip, old guy.

    I know I still prefer the Foghat original version myself.

  28. dustrock says:

    Here is St. Louis schedule. The Kings cannot catch them. They could pass the Oilers even.

    Woodguy‏ @Woodguy55 2h2 hours ago

    .@SuperNovs1 STL schedule: at ARI, at COL, vs VAN, vs CGY, vs ARI, at ARI, at COL, vs NSH, vs WPG, at FLA, at CAR, vs COL. Wow.

  29. hunter1909 says:

    Last night I put Fireball(1971) on while watching the 1st two periods.

    Deep Purple are one of the all time greatest ever 1960’s British bands, right up there with the Cream and Beatles and Who and Hendrix.

    Ian Paice is criminally underrated drummer, who basically schools the rest of the world on this classic record from the turning of the 60s into the 70s.

    Oilers beat down the Boston Bruins, and this morning Lowetide has woke up in a new yet familiar universe. Boston for their part are in denial. No, they really didn’t get the crap beaten out of them intimidated, and generally shown up by a team that looked 10 years younger.

  30. dustrock says:

    I don’t want to beat the Hall horse again, but last night he scored an absolute stunner of a goal against Mason. And everyone immediately had to talk about trading Hall for Larsson durrrrrrrrrr.

    If he had hands like that all the time, he’d probably score 40 goals. But he doesn’t.

    Also have to say, if you told me at the start of the year that we’d achieve unicorns by trading Davidson for Desharnais, I would have thrown my remote at you.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    Jethro Tull: If Hall had played for us Tuesday, Oilers would have lost the game

    Fixed.

  32. PhrankLee says:

    Hey LT how about throwing a curveball with the RE and use Uriah Heep or Mott The Hoople or Stan Rogers?

  33. JDï™ says:

    PhrankLee,

    I suggest The Monkeys.

  34. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce Wayne: Lucic, on the other hand, is useless and expensive. The no trade portion of the no movement clause is redundant because no one would take him.

    The Boston feed last night was very respectful of their former player.

    Then Lucic led the Oilers into a Darnell Nurse beatdown of the washed up beantowners – pretenders going nowhere in the spring.

  35. hunter1909 says:

    rogue:
    GAG line?

    Hatfield-Ratelle-Gilbert

    Then Ratelle got hurt and the GAG line blew and the Rangers lost in the finals to the Orr led Boston Bruins.

    Last night another superstar named Connor McDavid ran a hockey clinic that cements the Boston collapse for the rest of this year very nicely, lol

  36. Diablo says:

    dustrock:
    I don’t want to beat the Hall horse again, but last night he scored an absolute stunner of a goal against Mason. And everyone immediately had to talk about trading Hall for Larsson durrrrrrrrrr.

    If he had hands like that all the time, he’d probably score 40 goals.But he doesn’t.

    Also have to say, if you told me at the start of the year that we’d achieve unicorns by trading Davidson for Desharnais, I would have thrown my remote at you.

    That guy in the track suit may know what he’s doing.

  37. hunter1909 says:

    Who remembers in the third period, when Connor was getting passed the puck from the right side of the goal, over and over and making one sensational pass to his team mates, about 6-7 in a row all were fantastic.

  38. hunter1909 says:

    Compared to McDavid, Marchand is thecaptainethanmoreau.

  39. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s 2016-17 Oilers Death March Update:

    Oilers win big and rise up back to a 97 season pace. Congrats to the 12 players who have accurately predicted 97 points. Death March players who predicted a 97 point finish are:

    Soup Fascist
    Oil 2 Oilers
    Water fire
    Yak Efron
    Ozzie Oiler
    PTS2PNDR
    Genjutsu
    Book;je
    Kashirat
    Lodog
    Say it ain’t so Gretz, Say it ain’t so!
    Countr(y?)girl

  40. Pouzar says:

    DAL won last night. They’re hot now. Right? Right?

  41. Pajamah says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s 2016-17 Oilers Death March Update:

    Oilers win bigand rise up back to a 97 season pace. Congrats to the 12 players who have accurately predicted 97 points. Death March players who predicted a 97 point finish are:

    Soup Fascist
    Oil 2 Oilers
    Water fire
    Yak Efron
    Ozzie Oiler
    PTS2PNDR
    Genjutsu
    Book;je
    Kashirat
    Lodog
    Say it ain’t so Gretz, Say it ain’t so!
    Countr(y?)girl

    Goddammit Bookje.

  42. leadfarmer says:

    Bruce Wayne: That was a classic 7th rounder goal.Just stand there doing nothing and let the good players bank one off you.

    Now did you see Eberle’s assist.That’s what a good player looks like.

    Or Maroon, that’s what a good, big player looks like.

    Lucic, on the other hand, is useless and expensive.The no trade portion of the no movement clause is redundant because no one would take him.That is evident.

    We’re not the only team that’s been chasing the mythical Lucic-type unicorn

  43. LMHF#1 says:

    The great part about last night’s game, is that you knew if Boston somehow managed to bank 3 in off Talbot’s head or something, the Oilers just would have run it up to 10.

    Scoring at will is a beautiful thing. They could have put up as many as needed last night.

    Driving the net and having no holes in your forward lineup leads to a ton of goals…who knew?

  44. Diablo says:

    PhrankLee:
    As lopsided as that score was the Oilers were lucky to have all three periods end in the nick of time.

    Did they ever go after Benning. Wow.

    Cam.

    Part of that is Marchant being a LW I think – that guy is a very good hockey player. On the other hand, you compare that to Larsson, and those shot location charts really paint a clear picture – Benning is fine in a 3rd pairing role, but expecting him to be a top 4 D-man right now is madness.

    Larsson OTOH is fantastic.

  45. Shane says:

    hunter1909:
    Last night I put Fireball(1971) on while watching the 1st two periods.

    Deep Purple are one of the all time greatest ever 1960’s British bands, right up there with the Cream and Beatles and Who and Hendrix.

    Ian Paice is criminally underrated drummer, who basically schools the rest of the world on this classic record from the turning of the 60s into the 70s.

    Oilers beat down the Boston Bruins, and this morning Lowetide has woke up in a new yet familiar universe. Boston for their part are in denial. No, they really didn’t get the crap beaten out of them intimidated, and generally shown up by a team that looked 10 years younger.

    About 10 of 12 years ago I attended a drum clinic that Ian Paice hosted. Really great to see him play and talk about drumming in such an intimate setting(small room in the Long & Maquade downtown). They had a draw to give away one of his signature Pearl snare drums and I won it. After the clinic he presented me with the drum and I got to chat with him for a few minutes. Nice guy, great drummer. It was fascinating hearing him talk about working with Paul McCartney. I still have that snare drum today and still use it often.

  46. npanciroli says:

    Can’t imagine this team being in the playoffs without Larsson.

  47. Dee Dee says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Once I started reading your posts using the Christian Bale Batman Voice it changed my outlook totally.

  48. frjohnk says:

    Ducey: Lucic is 4th in team scoring, one point behind Eberle and 5 up on Maroon. His 41 pts put him 30th among LW according to NHL.com. That would be 1st line.

    In the first half of the season, he was late getting to puck battles, errant passes, many plays were dying on his stick and if it wasnt for his “unsustainable PP scoring” his overall box cars would be in the ditch. I wondered if his 5 on 5 play was like this in the first year of the contract when he was still in his prime, what the hell would it be like in the latter half of the contract when he would be downtrending.

    But he has definitely turned a corner over the last month or so. He looks quicker, instead of plays dying on his stick, he many times makes something out of nothing. He is showing very nice chemistry with Nuge and EBERLE. He is now playing like the player I hoped when we signed him this summer. I dont doubt that getting used to new coaching, teammates etc, takes some time for players and Lucic is no exception.

    Im expecting big things come playoff time from him.

  49. Lloyd B. says:

    frjohnk,

    About a month ago I heard Adam Oates on the radio comment that the game slows down during the final portion of the regular season and the playoffs.

    I wrote at the time it would be interesting to see Lucic perform when the games caught up to him. I wonder if part of what we are seeing now is that.

  50. russ99 says:

    Thus starts the Pacific run-in:

    3 vs. Van – 2 home, 1 road
    3 vs. LA – 2 home, 1 road
    2 vs. Ana – 1 home, 1 road
    2 vs. SJ – 1 home, 1 road

    and for good measure 2 vs. Avs – home & home that we’d better get 4 points from.

    The 5 between the Avs home & home and the Canucks home & home the most difficult.

    The ones to be wary of are a weakened yet still playoff veteran Kings team fighting off elimination, and Vancouver always gives us a hard time, those could be trap games.

    Out of the 24 available points, 15 would be a reasonable amount.

  51. frjohnk says:

    A one point this team reminded me like the 06 team last night.

    But not in a good way.

    Remember when Spooner ( I think it was him) blocked Nurses shot and then had a partial breakaway the other way? Spooner with Nurses help fell down and slid into Talbot. The first thing I thought of was of when Roloson got hurt when MA Bergeron dumped that Cane into him. Roloson getting knocked out of the Finals most likely cost the Oilers the cup that year. If Talbot gets hurt, we dont get far.

  52. PhrankLee says:

    frjohnk: Im expecting big things come playoff time from him.

    There lies the rub!

  53. trencan says:

    monsterbater:
    Reposting from last night’s thread….

    I have been requesting The Band for the last several years so please go with your gut and stick with that. There are so many great songs and song titles of theirs and with the artists they played for
    – Life is a Carnival (McDavid,)
    – Up on cripple creek (Pitlick?)
    – The weight (Talbot, carrying the goalering on his back)
    – The night they drove ol dixie down (hendricks if he resigns lol)
    – Helpless (Kris Russell)
    – Who do you love?
    It Gold LT, GOLD!

    CMD-RADIOACTIVE (Welcome to the new age)

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    Was at the game last night.It is a lot easier to cheer for the team when you are in the building and they score seven goals.

    Amazing insight. Thanks.

  55. Bag of Pucks says:

    Shane: About 10 of 12 years ago I attended a drum clinic that Ian Paice hosted. Really great to see him play and talk about drumming in such an intimate setting(small room in the Long & Maquade downtown). They had a draw to give away one of his signature Pearl snare drums and I won it. After the clinic he presented me with the drum and I got to chat with him for a few minutes. Nice guy, great drummer. It was fascinating hearing him talk about working with Paul McCartney. I still have that snare drum today and still use it often.

    Very cool story. Agree fully that Paice was criminally underrated. Purple was one of those rare bands where every guy in it was an absolutely stellar musician.

    I saw SRV at the CI South Ballroom on the Couldn’t Stand the Weather tour. A signed guitar was given away that night and played by Stevie on stage. Though ‘played’ seems like too weak a word to describe what he did to that instrument.

    A few years later, I ended up working with the guy who won the guitar. This was after Stevie’s death. Asked him whatever came of the guitar. A look of immediate and obvious regret came over him, “I sold it like two weeks later.”

  56. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think some of the credit for Lucic’s improvement likely goes to Eberle as well.

    By my eye, he’s been a demonstrably improved player in the last few weeks. Seeing him commit to the backcheck like never before and even willingly taking contact along the wall to progress the cycle or pass out.

    TMac must be thrilled with this progress.

    All that said, 7-15 against the Bergeron line? That’s getting fed. I’m sure you take Nuge vs Bergeron on the dot all night long if you’re the B’s.

  57. unca miltie says:

    Bohologo:
    Apologies to all the hippies on this site (I see you there in your beanbag chairs with your Grateful Dead records, through a cloud of something presumably disreputable), but if you can remember the 1980s, you weren’t really there.

    Some of us cannot remember the 70’s but sobered up in time to remember the 80’s

  58. Pouzar says:

    Oilers Record with Slepy:
    24-9-2
    without:
    13-15-7

    Just sayin.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC & EC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    CHI 25
    MIN 23
    SJS 21
    ANA 14
    EDM 13
    CGY 12-1st wildcard
    NSH 11
    STL 9-2nd wildcard
    ————-
    LAK 5
    WPG -2
    DAL -4
    VAN -5
    ARI -9
    COL -26

    WSH 28
    CBJ 27
    PIT 26
    NYR 20-1st wildcard
    OTT 16
    MTL 16
    BOS 11
    TOR 9-2nd wildcard
    ————-
    TBY 7
    NYI 7
    CAR 2
    FLA 2
    PHI 2
    BUF -3
    DET -4
    NJD -5

    Busy today, so that’s all I got time for

  60. anjinsan says:

    Hatfield-Ratelle-Gilbert

    By the way — you mentioned greatness in hockey…that is why I’m an Oiler fan all the way from Chicago….but: the GM in not getting Barzal/Connor and Carlo and instead opting for Reinhart and in making the desperate trade involving Hall and in bloating Lucic is not pursuing greatness but rather expeditiousness at the expense for greatness. Sorry to harp, but when these things happened the other side said wait and see…we’ll now’s the post wait period. And Larsson isn’t the prime reason for improvement. I do love his solidity and warriorishness, but I hate the price — it’s terrible asset management. The prime reasons for improvement can be seen if one looks down the column of games played by the talent….we’re f’ing not injured + the young talent is a year older + McLellan’s soundness DOMINATES the Eakins dysfunction and has started a good culture, a pro ethic, and a team that has something consistent to work on.

  61. trader says:

    npanciroli:
    Can’t imagine this team being in the playoffs without Larsson.

    So very true!!

    What do the following TEN Oilers have in common
    #’s..19, 97, 29, 14, 93, 27, 77, 44, 67, 15
    They all have MORE 5×5 goals then Taylor Hall this season, and I would suggest all except #14 are better defensively.

    Taylor Hall is a good player but if someone had never watched him play and read the comments on this blog they would think he was the second coming.
    If you are a relative of Taylor fine but otherwise just let it go.

  62. rickithebear says:

    I am confused?

    You guys have not been visualizing nerd alerts chart!
    Since I started discussing HD area years ago!

    Why Not!

    You parsee the data in your brain
    and
    just picture the pattern!

    Come on guys!

  63. dustrock says:

    Do you guys think McLellan will get any Adams votes?

    I realize Narrative of Redemption favors Torts, very heavily.

    And Narrative of City of Lost Souls favors Babcock, very heavily.

    And we have McDavid.

    But at some point I think we look at the turnaround, the lack of any extended slumps, and the general pushback the Oilers have had this year, and we have to give McLellan some credit.

    Right Godot?

  64. Chachi says:

    anjinsan:
    Hatfield-Ratelle-Gilbert

    By the way — you mentioned greatness in hockey…that is why I’m an Oiler fan all the way from Chicago….but: the GM in not getting Barzal/Connor and Carlo and instead opting for Reinhart and in making the desperate trade involving Hall and in bloating Lucic is not pursuing greatness but rather expeditiousness at the expense for greatness.Sorry to harp, but when these things happened the other side said wait and see…we’ll now’s the post wait period.And Larsson isn’t the prime reason for improvement.I do love his solidity and warriorishness, but I hate the price — it’s terrible asset management.The prime reasons for improvement can be seen if one looks down the column of games played by the talent….we’re f’ing not injured +the young talent is a year older + McLellan’s soundness DOMINATES the Eakins dysfunction and has started a good culture, a pro ethic, and a team that has something consistent to work on.

    Only missing a Krueger/Nelson reference from a full on Evil Fucaire diatribe!

  65. Bruce Wayne says:

    anjinsan:
    Hatfield-Ratelle-Gilbert

    By the way — you mentioned greatness in hockey…that is why I’m an Oiler fan all the way from Chicago….but: the GM in not getting Barzal/Connor and Carlo and instead opting for Reinhart and in making the desperate trade involving Hall and in bloating Lucic is not pursuing greatness but rather expeditiousness at the expense for greatness.Sorry to harp, but when these things happened the other side said wait and see…we’ll now’s the post wait period.And Larsson isn’t the prime reason for improvement.I do love his solidity and warriorishness, but I hate the price — it’s terrible asset management.The prime reasons for improvement can be seen if one looks down the column of games played by the talent….we’re f’ing not injured +the young talent is a year older

    Co-signed.

    This team would be better with Hall and Demers versus Lucic and Larsson. Nothing that has happened this year provides evidence against this claim. Indeed, it deepens the tragedy, the improvement in the other parts of the roster (Maroon, Kassian, Benning, Sekera, healthy Klefbom, healthy McDavid, no Korpikoski, Letestu, Draisatl a year older, Nurse not over his head) means that if you could only undo the trade you’d have a Stanley Cup contender.

    Unless someone wants to attribute all of those improvements to Larsson, which is absurd on its face.

    Conversely, the major disappointments of the season are Lucic, RNH, and Eberle, and subtracting Lucic and adding Hall solves all three problems together.

  66. PhrankLee says:

    rickithebear:
    I am confused?

    You guys have not been visualizing nerd alerts chart!
    Since I started discussing HD area years ago!

    Why Not!

    You parsee the data in your brain
    an d
    just picture the pattern!

    Come on guys!

    Like Cypher in The Matrix.

  67. Dino says:

    Larsson is not the ONLY reason the Oilers have improved this season, but he is a BIG reason they have improved. He fills an important piece to the puzzle that lacked here for years, he’s that steady Steve on the blue line and that may not be sexy and arousing to most people but it doesn’t make it any less important. I can see him becoming the Vlasic of the Oilers, let’s hope we find or develop a Burns.

  68. sliderule says:

    Maroon is getting the same offensive boost from Mcdavid that BJ Macdonald got from Gretzky.

    I hope Chia realizes this .

  69. remlap says:

    Oilers go on losing skid: “This is why we shouldn’t have traded Hall!”

    Oilers win back to back with 14 total goals: “Would have scored more with Hall!”

    Get over it.

  70. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’ll give you a hand
    Sabres at ducks. One of several teams in need of more than one top 4 defensemen vs d factory. Sabres played and were shutout yesterday. Don’t expect much help from the east on this one.

    Panthers vs Rangers. Math kids vs #4 team in the Met which would be leading the Atlantic. Inconsistent Panthers vs inconsistent but pretty good Raanta.
    Devils v Pens. Where Hall wanted to end up vs where he ended up.

    Stars v Flames. Another team in desperate need of top 4 d after offseason exodus. They played last night and so did Lehtonen. So Flames get Stars on a scheduled loss night with likely Niemi starting. Not expecting much help from stars there.

  71. who says:

    Dino:
    Larsson is not the ONLY reason the Oilers have improved this season, but he is a BIG reason they have improved. He fills an important piece to the puzzle that lacked here for years, he’s that steady Steve on the blue line and that may not be sexy and arousing to most people but it doesn’t make it any less important. I can see him becoming the Vlasic of the Oilers, let’s hope we find or develop a Burns.

    We have a mini Burns. He is not scoring quite as much but he probably makes just as many defensive mistakes. He is currently paired with our version of Vlasic.

  72. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne: Co-signed.

    This team would be better with Hall and Demers versus Lucic and Larsson.Nothing that has happened this year provides evidence against this claim.Indeed, it deepens the tragedy, the improvement in the other parts of the roster (Maroon, Kassian, Benning, Sekera, healthy Klefbom, healthy McDavid, no Korpikoski, Letestu, Draisatl a year older, Nurse not over his head) means that if you could only undo the trade you’d have a Stanley Cup contender.

    Unless someone wants to attribute all of those improvements to Larsson, which is absurd on its face.

    Conversely, the major disappointments of the season are Lucic, RNH, and Eberle, and subtracting Lucic and adding Hall solves all three problems together.

    Demers will get traded from Florida before his contract is up, likely for a 7th round draft pick. He is sporting a career high shooting percentage and is still having an awful season. I am very glad the Oilers passed on signing him.

  73. Mantis says:

    PhrankLee:
    Hey LT how about throwing a curveball with the RE and use Uriah Heep or Mott The Hoople or Stan Rogers?

    Stan Rogers is an interesting suggestion. Myself, I’d like to throw Supertramp into the mix.

    I wasn’t a fan of the Davidson for DD trade (up-and-coming D for a small 30 year old C who could walk at the end of the season?), but I must say the results thus far have looked good. If we can resign him for something reasonable, does this become a win? I’m not certain what a typical 3rd line C earns, but on top of this being an important contract for him due to his age, I’m imagining he might want a raise if he keeps performing as he has in this (albeit limited) period. He’s currently earning 3.5mm, and I wouldn’t want to pay him any more than that (less would be ideal!) Term would likely be an issue as well. With McDavid and Drai contracts looming, we have to tread softly.

    Would you do 3 years x 4mm if that’s what it took? If it’s too rich, offer a one year at 4mm because he’ll be off the books for McDavid’s contract? Or let him walk? (I’d like 3×3 but I don’t see that happening).

    If we can keep DD (without overpaying), I’ll be able to make my peace with this deal.

    I like BD. I know he wasn’t quite living up to the expectations we had based on last years performance, which might be mitigated somewhat by the injury he suffered. Combine this with the congestion in the Leftorium, and we can conclude he wasn’t a vital piece. I like him, but he’s tradeable. This does not excuse for one second that they appear to have traded him so they won’t ‘lose him in the draft for nothing’. That line of reasoning drives me to drink. (Dammit, out of scotch! Well, here comes the ‘driving’ part…)

    So what happens if DD walks? And Vegas takes (for example) an unprotected Khaira? (Or insert your own private fear…) We lose BD anyway, and Khaira as well.

    Who’s to say we couldn’t have swung a deal (which looks like it had potential based on the verbal – McPhee is open for business), or failing that, they might have had their eye on someone else? The worst that happens is we lose Davidson. Well, we made sure that happened regardless, (plus more!) didn’t we?

    I feel this move was done for entirely the wrong reasons, and am really hoping for a happy ending in spite of it.

    That said, I love the progress, I love the team, I love the thought of playoff hockey after so long a drought, and I love reading this blog in the spring without poor LT having to find an interesting angle on the draft for the 150th consecutive time, and yet somehow still pulling it off.

    Bring on the Dys!

  74. classict says:

    Bruce Wayne: Score effects definitely came into play.At one point in the second period the Oilers were almost doubling the Bruins in shots.

    Has someone studied score effects to try and determine why it occurs?Is it intentional, as a result of tactics, or is it psychological, part of letting off the gas?Both?

    Some of it is almost certainly tactical.You could see it in the third period when the Oilers dumped the puck into the corner almost every team, and only tried to strike with odd man chances.But if this is the case it should be possible to study whether these are good tactics?

    Another question about score effects.We know that your shot percentage goes down when you have the lead, but what are the elements of this change.Do both SF and SA go down, but SF goes down more? (in which case perhaps a reasonable strategy).Does shot quality change as well? If shot quality against does not go down with score effects, then this is evidence that it is a bad strategy?

    Any answer monkeys in the house?

    I posted this link yesterday, it’s the slides from Micah Black McCurdy’s talk last week at the Vancouver Hockey Analytics Conference. (His site HockeyViz has some really cool stuff)

    The slides might be a little hard to follow without the talk that went with them but the graphs at the bottom show some interesting trends. They shots and goals rates based on the pressure a team is under to score (so a team down two goals late in a game has more pressure to score than a team down one early in a game)

    Part of it is score effects seem to have a considerably bigger effect on the home team. Which could partly be psychological.

  75. Professor Q says:

    sliderule:
    Maroon is getting the same offensive boost from Mcdavid that BJ Macdonald got from Gretzky.

    I hope Chia realizes this .

    I’m sure Chia is of the belief that Maroon is the real driver of that line and the team.

  76. delooper says:

    remlap:
    Oilers go on losing skid: “This is why we shouldn’t have traded Hall!”

    Oilers win back to back with 14 total goals: “Would have scored more with Hall!”

    The nice thing about this winning is I’m not even noticing the Hall trade whiners anymore. My eyes don’t even stop for their posts.

  77. rickithebear says:

    not being able visualize theshot charts in your brain explains not understanding
    Fistric
    and
    Bellimore!

    I am a huge fan of Dmen not penetrating low in the Ozone. But maintain a protective path to our HD area. I do not want my D to chase Goals cause Forwards are way more efficient at achieving that!

    I do want my d to transition the Puck to the forwards. I also want a Dman with the vision to be a High 1st assist Generator.

    CA/60 is a measure of the failing of the Forwards and offensive Dmen.
    A counter attack from Failed Entries, Dumpins lost, Blocks, Misses, Giveaways.

    The down low forward/Off Dmen do not provide a presence in the Neutral Zone. So no Neutral zone trap.
    Not allowing Dmen to force the Zentry.
    This results in high CA/60
    Now a Dman can be a Shot suppressor like Russell Blocks, Forced Misses.
    but that is independent of the HD play which is a X,Y Corsi Value. though HD is really 100% about targeting the net and open and closed hole shots.

    Now the HD affect:
    The targeting and distance in Closed hole theory starts with an x,y Corsi
    So the PDO that never regresses to the mean is a hint to HD affect!

    So we get a Ratio for a dman:
    the better HD dmen tend to be in the lowe end of EVGA. cause the targeting distance is greater. this affect the eye and bodies abilty to target the open areas of the net!
    we can establish A HD Measure without Shot suppression affect from the Dmen.
    (EVGA/60)/(EVSA/60)
    Or
    we can combine a dman’s Shot suppression and HD affect:
    (EVGA/60)/(EVCA/60)

    Fistric 1-13 W/ oilers
    1.10 EVP/60 #18/203 Dmen
    0.00 EVG/60 – not chasing Down low!
    1.10 EVA/60 #8/203 D
    0.73 firstA/60 #2/203 Dmen
    Fits the Offensive Dman mold Perfectly!
    Best in the game!

    Defenisvely Fistric faced
    57.45 Ca/60 #151/203 Dmen. the pocession ability of the young forwards was awful!

    His shot suppression rate?
    26.61 SA/60 top 50 in the league.
    26.61/57.45 only 46.3% of the corsi got through!
    top 60 Sa rates while facing bottom 60 CA.

    Hd affect
    1.48/26.61 = 5.56%
    Supression/HD affect
    1.48/57.45 = 2.58%

    So I spent all this time trying to convinve this group that one of the 3 Best Dmen at getting the forward the puck with out sacrificing Defence.

    While being one of the Best HD /Shot suppression Dmen in the Game.
    Watching the video you see he only allowed 2 GA on His side in the 25 gm he played in 12-13.

    People often bring up Fistric as an example of a my poor measure of Dmen.

    Most on hear did not even Know that Dmen generate offence like 4th line forwards!
    2 GA in 25 gm.!

    Top 3 at Getting Forwards the puck often directly (1st assist)
    PKGA?
    #8 in the league!

    The emphasis of play has been backwards for years!

    Fistric had what was likely the closest thing to a perfrect Dman season!
    Top 8 EVA/60 off D
    Top 10 EVGA
    Top 8 PKGA

    He was Davidson or Weber at Even defence
    While being being an Elite Even off dman .
    yet did not Sacrifice Defence!
    Mact wanted to retain him for 3 years.

    But you guys who have emphasized Offence as a measure of a Dman!
    4th line scoring!
    what important value!

    There was no measure of a dman’s def play until I came up with HD theory!
    Fistric 12-13 season the best overall performance by a D since 05-06!

  78. leadfarmer says:

    Chachi: Demers will get traded from Florida before his contract is up, likely for a 7th round draft pick. He is sporting a career high shooting percentage and is still having an awful season. I am very glad the Oilers passed on signing him.

    People have been defending Demers that he’s been stuck playing with a rookie all season, but that rookie is a pretty good rookie and is playing more on Even strength and more on PK than the veteran. He probably would be a improvement on the pp though but in his own end he’s got nothing on Larsson who is still improving.

  79. sliderule says:

    Professor Q: I’m sure Chia is of the belief that Maroon is the real driver of that line and the team.

    The folks that want to protect him in expansion draft have a very high opinion of him.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    Mantis,

    I don’t think DD gets 3 mil per.

  81. classict says:

    Chachi: Demers will get traded from Florida before his contract is up, likely for a 7th round draft pick. He is sporting a career high shooting percentage and is still having an awful season. I am very glad the Oilers passed on signing him.

    What? Florida’s shooting % when he’s on isn’t high at all, he’s gotten brutal goaltending behind him (I imagine Yandle is partly to blame for some of that – Yandle is his most common partner) and Florida has had some pretty major injuries for over half the season. AND he’s pretty much broken even shot-wise playing top pairing.

    Opinions on whether the Oilers should have picked him up aside, he is not even remotely having an awful season. And hes definitely worth more than a 7th (though I’m sure that’s just a dig at BW)

  82. Mantis says:

    leadfarmer:
    Mantis,

    I don’t think DD gets 3 mil per.

    If we can get a year or more out of him for less I am quite happy. Gaining stability and some offence on the 3rd line for 2mm or so would be ideal – I could live with that. Nothing against the Drake, but he needs more time to develop and see if he can potentially fill that role in the future.

  83. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce Wayne: Co-signed.

    This team would be better with Hall and Demers versus Lucic and Larsson.Nothing that has happened this year provides evidence against this claim.Indeed, it deepens the tragedy, the improvement in the other parts of the roster (Maroon, Kassian, Benning, Sekera, healthy Klefbom, healthy McDavid, no Korpikoski, Letestu, Draisatl a year older, Nurse not over his head) means that if you could only undo the trade you’d have a Stanley Cup contender.

    Unless someone wants to attribute all of those improvements to Larsson, which is absurd on its face.

    Conversely, the major disappointments of the season are Lucic, RNH, and Eberle, and subtracting Lucic and adding Hall solves all three problems together.

    Honestly what would everyone do without your insight, on why the current Oilers in playoff position for the 1st time in years still suck, after a brace of 7 SEVEN goal performances.

  84. hunter1909 says:

    Pajamah: Goddammit Bookje.

    Bookje right now is undisputed in hockey arguments.

  85. hunter1909 says:

    Ok don’t feed the troll so lol that’s it.

  86. classict says:

    Chachi,

    Though I would love if he could be had for a 7th.

    Imagine next year:
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Benning
    Nurse – Demers

    By the end of next year that could possibly be the best D in the league.

  87. hunter1909 says:

    Shane: About 10 of 12 years ago I attended a drum clinic that Ian Paice hosted. Really great to see him play and talk about drumming in such an intimate setting(small room in the Long & Maquade downtown). They had a draw to give away one of his signature Pearl snare drums and I won it. After the clinic he presented me with the drum and I got to chat with him for a few minutes. Nice guy, great drummer. It was fascinating hearing him talk about working with Paul McCartney. I still have that snare drum today and still use it often.

    Fantastic.

    What’s your death march number?

  88. npanciroli says:

    Demers
    42.9% GF
    Without Barkov (872 TOI) 34.4 GF%

    Larsson
    56.7% GF
    Without McDavid (795 TOI) 56.1 GF%

  89. classict says:

    npanciroli,

    Lucic 51.6 GF%
    Without McDavid 41.2 GF%

    I’m not saying Lucic is bad (or trying to imply I think Demers is better than Larsson). But GF% doesn’t tell the whole story. And if we’re giving Lucic a season to adjust to a new team why doesn’t anyone seem to apply that to Demers.

  90. npanciroli says:

    classict,

    I actually think Lucic needs to be better away from McDavid straight up. Just showing how impressive I think Larsson has been away from McDavid and doesn’t need that zooming.

    Swapping Demers for Larsson and it looks like we are in trouble, obviously a lot of factors involved though.

  91. treevojo says:

    classict:
    npanciroli,

    Lucic 51.6 GF%
    Without McDavid 41.2 GF%

    I’m not saying Lucic is bad (or trying to imply I think Demers is better than Larsson). But GF% doesn’t tell the whole story. And if we’re giving Lucic a season to adjust to a new team why doesn’t anyone seem to apply that to Demers.

    Probably because most posters dont give a rats ass what Demers is up to on the under-achieving Panthers

  92. Bruce Wayne says:

    hunter1909:
    Ok don’t feed the troll so lol that’s it.

    Oh, please. There isn’t a bigger loudmouth jackass here than you.

  93. npanciroli says:

    I really want to see the full list of point predictions, is this possible hunter?

  94. PhrankLee says:

    Now boys, no name calling. Dad will slap your pee pee.

  95. Professor Q says:

    dustrock:
    Do you guys think McLellan will get any Adams votes?

    I realize Narrative of Redemption favors Torts, very heavily.

    And Narrative of City of Lost Souls favors Babcock, very heavily.

    And we have McDavid.

    But at some point I think we look at the turnaround, the lack of any extended slumps, and the general pushback the Oilers have had this year, and we have to give McLellan some credit.

    Right Godot?

    Because Toronto will overlook Matthews, Marner, and Nylander when it comes to that award, but not McDavid, nor during other award voting processes.

  96. LMHF#1 says:

    Bruce Wayne: Oh, please.There isn’t a bigger loudmouth jackass here than you.

    Hey! I’m the only loudmouth here! Call Hunter something else! Like awesome!

  97. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Pouzar,

    Just imagine the state of affairs on this fine blog if the Oilers were in say Vancouver’s spot standings wise hehe

  98. Pouzar says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Pouzar,

    Just imagine the state of affairs on this fine blog if the Oilers were in say Vancouver’s spot standings wise hehe

    Indeed!

    Speaking of, we’d better not shit the bed tomorrow against those guys.
    Winning streaks are kewl unless you are the Flames.

  99. leadfarmer says:

    Professor Q,

    I think the special teams will cost him any chance at votes. Having a pp + PK ranking of near 30 kills it for me.

  100. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear:
    not being able visualize theshot charts in your brain explains not understanding
    Fistric
    and
    Bellimore!

    I am a huge fan of Dmen not penetrating low in the Ozone. But maintain a protective path to our HD area. I do not want my D to chase Goals cause Forwards are way more efficient at achieving that!

    I do want my d to transition the Puck to the forwards. I also want a Dman with the vision to be a High 1st assist Generator.

    CA/60 is a measure of the failing of the Forwards and offensive Dmen.
    A counter attack from Failed Entries, Dumpins lost, Blocks, Misses, Giveaways.

    The down low forward/Off Dmen do not provide a presence in the Neutral Zone. So no Neutral zone trap.
    Not allowing Dmen to force the Zentry.
    This results in high CA/60
    Now a Dman can be a Shot suppressor like Russell Blocks, Forced Misses.
    but that is independent of the HD play which is a X,Y Corsi Value. though HD is really 100% about targeting the net and open and closed hole shots.

    Now the HD affect:
    The targeting and distance in Closed hole theory starts with an x,y Corsi
    So the PDO that never regresses to the mean is a hint to HD affect!

    So we get a Ratio for a dman:
    the better HD dmen tend to be in the lowe end of EVGA. cause the targeting distance is greater. this affect the eye and bodies abilty to target the open areas of the net!
    we can establish A HD Measure without Shot suppression affect from the Dmen.
    (EVGA/60)/(EVSA/60)
    Or
    we can combine a dman’sShot suppression and HD affect:
    (EVGA/60)/(EVCA/60)

    Fistric 1-13 W/ oilers
    1.10 EVP/60 #18/203 Dmen
    0.00 EVG/60 – not chasing Down low!
    1.10 EVA/60 #8/203 D
    0.73 firstA/60 #2/203 Dmen
    Fits the Offensive Dman mold Perfectly!
    Best in the game!

    Defenisvely Fistric faced
    57.45 Ca/60 #151/203 Dmen. the pocession ability of the young forwards was awful!

    His shot suppression rate?
    26.61 SA/60 top 50 in the league.
    26.61/57.45 only 46.3% of the corsi got through!
    top 60 Sa rates while facing bottom 60 CA.

    Hd affect
    1.48/26.61 = 5.56%
    Supression/HD affect
    1.48/57.45 = 2.58%

    So I spent all this time trying to convinve this group that one of the 3 Best Dmen at getting the forward the puck with out sacrificing Defence.

    While being one of the Best HD /Shot suppression Dmen in the Game.
    Watching the video you see he only allowed 2 GA on His side in the 25 gm he played in 12-13.

    People often bring up Fistric as an example of a my poor measure of Dmen.

    Most on hear did not even Know that Dmen generate offence like 4th line forwards!
    2 GA in 25 gm.!

    Top 3 at Getting Forwards the puck often directly (1st assist)
    PKGA?
    #8 in the league!

    The emphasis of play has been backwards for years!

    Fistric had what was likely the closest thing to a perfrect Dman season!
    Top 8 EVA/60 off D
    Top 10 EVGA
    Top 8 PKGA

    He was Davidson or Weber at Even defence
    While being being an Elite Even off dman .
    yet did not Sacrifice Defence!
    Mact wanted to retain him for 3 years.

    But you guys who have emphasized Offence as a measure of a Dman!
    4th line scoring!
    what important value!

    There was no measure of a dman’s def play until I came up with HD theory!
    Fistric 12-13 season the best overall performance by a D since 05-06!

    Fistric eh?

    Does he shoot right handed?

  101. rickithebear says:

    When you look at Dmen top 20 In EVA/60
    EVGA/60
    PKGA/60

    07-08
    Dmen with 3/3
    Rafalski 2, 12, 8

    dmen with 2/3
    B. Campbell
    Kronwall
    Lidstrom
    Malik
    Zubov

    08-09
    dmen with 2/3
    Sarich
    Ballard
    M. Green

    09-10
    dmen with 2/3
    D. Boyle
    Orpik
    Poti
    J. Schultz
    Weaver
    Yandle

    10-11
    dmen with 2/3
    Franson
    O’Donnell
    Stoner

    11-12
    dmen with 2/3
    Bieksa
    Carle
    Ericsson
    Kindl
    Salvador
    Shattenkirk

    12-13
    dmen with 3/3
    Fistric 8, 10, 8

    dmen with 2/3
    Diaz
    Gonchar
    Rozival
    Tanev

    13-14
    dmen with 2/3
    Bellimore
    Bouwmeester
    Demers
    Lovejoy
    Voyonov

    14-15
    dmen with 2/3
    Mcnabb
    Rundblad

    15-16
    dmen with 3/3
    Parayko 13, 16, 1

    dmen with 2/3
    D. pouliot
    Sustr

    16-17
    dmen with 2/3
    Alzner
    Burns
    Doughty
    Lindholm

    I really would like alzner on this team!

  102. rickithebear says:

    Bruce Wayne: Oh, please.There isn’t a bigger loudmouth jackass here than you.

    I was proud of the Slurs and illegal Physical play I got away with.
    Sports surfaces are like Las Vegas!

  103. Bank Shot says:

    npanciroli:
    Demers
    42.9% GF
    Without Barkov (872 TOI) 34.4 GF%

    Larsson
    56.7% GF
    Without McDavid (795 TOI) 56.1 GF%

    Larsson is clearly better than Demers.

    I guess the question is always going to remain, is Hall+ Demers better than Lucic+Larsson.

    Probably corsi wise. I think you can’t quantify what Lucic brings to the Oilers in terms of being confident on the ice having a bully at your back.

    I definitely think it adds something to the players around him, but you are never going to be able to hang a number on it.

    Taylor Hall at this point is a player that has outscored Lucic by 10 points over the last 3 seasons. This is mostly because of injuries but Hall doesn’t bring more to the team if he’s on the IR.

    You may say injuries are luck but Lucic has missed substantial time once in his career. Hall 4 seasons out of 6.

  104. Whatif says:

    Just for the sake of accuracy, the GAG line was:

    Hadfield – Ratelle – Gilbert

    If memory serves me correctly, the only Hatfield of note was in a feud with someone named McCoy.

  105. Alpine says:

    Lucic has had a great last month, and overall a decent season. But looking at how ineffective he was for large parts of the season, I really think Mr. Wayne is correct that the contract is likely to be a headache. I hope the headache comes in year 6 rather than year 3, because I think you at least have a have a chance to move it with a year left. And even then, look at what CHI, DET, and FLA had to include when they moved Bickell/Datsyuk/Bolland.

  106. theres oil in virginia says:

    PhrankLee:
    Now boys, no name calling. Dad will slap your pee pee.

    Careful, somebody might be into that.

    Not that there’s anything wrong with that…

  107. Alpine says:

    Bank Shot: Larsson is clearly better than Demers.

    I guess the question is always going to remain, is Hall+ Demers better than Lucic+Larsson.

    Probably corsi wise. I think you can’t quantify what Lucic brings to the Oilers in terms of being confident on the ice having a bully at your back.

    I definitely think it adds something to the players around him, but you are never going to be able to hang a number on it.

    Taylor Hall at this point is a player that has outscored Lucic by 10 points over the last 3 seasons. This is mostly because of injuries but Hall doesn’t bring more to the team if he’s on the IR.

    You may say injuries are luck but Lucic has missed substantial time once in his career. Hall 4 seasons out of 6.

    I mean if you balance out the time Hall gets hurt with the amount of games Lucic simply plods around and doesn’t do much, Hall probably comes out ahead. The caveat with Lucic being healthy is that he remains healthy by taking a couple games or weeks off here and there and thus you really only get The Good Looch for maybe 65-70% of the season at best.

  108. HT Joe says:

    remlap:
    Oilers go on losing skid: “This is why we shouldn’t have traded Hall!”
    Oilers win back to back with 14 total goals: “Would have scored more with Hall!”
    Get over it.

    I’m not sure why you wouldn’t like this logic… it is beautifully consistent.
    It is WAY better than people that love the Oilers after wins but hate the Oilers after losses… win or lose, a lot of people miss Hall.

  109. HT Joe says:

    classict:
    npanciroli,
    …And if we’re giving Lucic a season to adjust to a new team why doesn’t anyone seem to apply that to Demers.

    If we give Lucic a season to adjust to a new team, it’s only fair to give Hall a season to adjust to a terribly bad new team.

  110. Chachi says:

    classict: What? Florida’s shooting % when he’s on isn’t high at all, he’s gotten brutal goaltending behind him (I imagine Yandle is partly to blame for some of that – Yandle is his most common partner) and Florida has had some pretty major injuries for over half the season. AND he’s pretty much broken even shot-wise playing top pairing.

    Opinions on whether the Oilers should have picked him up aside, he is not even remotely having an awful season. And hes definitely worth more than a 7th (though I’m sure that’s just a dig at BW)

    I was being facetious… mostly.

  111. bendelson says:

    hunter1909,

    Bruce Wayne,

    LMHF#1,

    rickithebear,

    Gentlemen, please…
    There is plenty of room for all of you here on the blog!

    __________

    Am I the only one that hears Bush (x?) when Machine Head is referenced?

  112. hunter1909 says:

    npanciroli:
    I really want to see the full list of point predictions, is this possible hunter?

    Yes.

  113. HT Joe says:

    bendelson:
    hunter1909,
    Bruce Wayne,
    LMHF#1,
    rickithebear,
    Am I the only one that hears Bush (x?) when Machine Head is referenced?

    You are not the only one. Memories of being trapped in a bus trip across Ireland with Bush music blaring on loop still haunt me.

  114. hunter1909 says:

    bendelson:
    hunter1909,

    Bruce Wayne,

    LMHF#1,

    rickithebear,

    Gentlemen, please…
    There is plenty of room for all of you here on the blog!

    __________

    Am I the only one that hears Bush (x?) when Machine Head is referenced?

    Gentlemen! This is the War Room!

  115. Bag of Pucks says:

    While Maroon is undoubtedly benefitting from the McDavid zoom, I think Big Rig should be given full marks for what he’s accomplished. He’s had some pretty impressive individual effort ‘deke’ goals. For such a big man, very impressive hands. And he invariably arrives at the paint at the right time and has the hand/eye to convert those feeds across.

    McDavid’s pass across last night was otherworldly but that was also great work by Patty to convert it in the time and space he had.

    And let’s not forget, Lucic was given the first shot and didn’t produce to the level Maroon has.

    This player exemplifies the term, ‘fan favourite.’ Fully agree however the contract has to remain in the realm of ‘reasonable.’

  116. stevezie says:

    Bruce Wayne: Score effects definitely came into play.At one point in the second period the Oilers were almost doubling the Bruins in shots.

    Has someone studied score effects to try and determine why it occurs?Is it intentional, as a result of tactics, or is it psychological, part of letting off the gas?Both?

    Some of it is almost certainly tactical.You could see it in the third period when the Oilers dumped the puck into the corner almost every team, and only tried to strike with odd man chances.But if this is the case it should be possible to study whether these are good tactics?

    Another question about score effects.We know that your shot percentage goes down when you have the lead, but what are the elements of this change.Do both SF and SA go down, but SF goes down more? (in which case perhaps a reasonable strategy).Does shot quality change as well? If shot quality against does not go down with score effects, then this is evidence that it is a bad strategy?

    Any answer monkeys in the house?

    Excellent question. If it’s on purpose, i don’t think it’s a good idea. Dance with the one who brung yah.

    Speaking of answer monkeys, i believe it was you who i remember saying goal scoring peaks in the early twenties. I was googling this yesterday and could only find info on when points and scoring chance creation peak. Any tips on where to look?

  117. stevezie says:

    bendelson: Am I the only one that hears Bush (x?) when Machine Head is referenced

    Nope!

  118. bendelson says:

    stevezie,

    Thought I might hear from you yesterday after referencing the legendary Marvin Pontiac…

  119. who says:

    Mantis: Stan Rogers is an interesting suggestion.Myself, I’d like to throw Supertramp into the mix.

    I wasn’t a fan of the Davidson for DD trade (up-and-coming D for a small 30 year old C who could walk at the end of the season?), but I must say the results thus far have looked good.If we can resign him for something reasonable, does this become a win?I’m not certain what a typical 3rd line C earns, but on top of this being an important contract for him due to his age, I’m imagining he might want a raise if he keeps performing as he has in this (albeit limited) period.He’s currently earning 3.5mm, and I wouldn’t want to pay him any more than that (less would be ideal!)Term would likely be an issue as well. With McDavid and Drai contracts looming, we have to tread softly.

    Would you do 3 years x 4mm if that’s what it took?If it’s too rich, offer a one year at 4mmbecause he’ll be off the books for McDavid’s contract?Or let him walk?(I’d like 3×3 but I don’t see that happening).

    If we can keep DD (without overpaying), I’ll be able to make my peace with this deal.

    I like BD.I know he wasn’t quite living up to the expectations we had based on last years performance, which might be mitigated somewhat by the injury he suffered.Combine this with the congestion in the Leftorium, and we can conclude he wasn’t a vital piece.I like him, but he’s tradeable.This does not excuse for one second that they appear to have traded him so they won’t ‘lose him in the draft for nothing’.That line of reasoning drives me to drink.(Dammit, out of scotch!Well, here comes the ‘driving’ part…)

    So what happens if DD walks?And Vegas takes (for example) an unprotected Khaira?(Or insert your own private fear…)We lose BD anyway, and Khaira as well.

    Who’s to say we couldn’t have swung a deal (which looks like it had potential based on the verbal – McPhee is open for business), or failing that, they might have had their eye on someone else?The worst that happens is we lose Davidson.Well, we made sure that happened regardless, (plus more!) didn’t we?

    I feel this move was done for entirely the wrong reasons, and am really hoping for a happy ending in spite of it.

    That said, I love the progress, I love the team, I love the thought of playoff hockey after so long a drought,and I love reading this blog in the spring without poor LT having to find an interesting angle on the draft for the 150th consecutive time, and yet somehow still pulling it off.

    Bring on the Dys!

    This trade WILL NOT have a happy ending if they resign DD. The best possible ending is for him to help us win a playoff round or two and then walk in the summer. We don’t need to sign any more mediocre veterans to multi year deals

  120. bendelson says:
  121. PhrankLee says:

    I like DD but think we need to aim higher this summer.

  122. stevezie says:

    bendelson,

    I was actually unfamiliar with The fabulous Marvin before today.

    i have always been an ardent defender of Gavin and the boys, however, and before I get any shit for that I’ll say anyone whose taste perfectly aligns with the cool kid critics is probably faking.

    Also I think teenage me was right: now that we’re a few decades removed from the deluge post-grunge politics and fads and can just listen to the songs, Bush has some good tunes.

    Oh and I wish more games ended 7-4.

  123. stevezie says:

    Bank Shot: I think you can’t quantify what Lucic brings to the Oilers in terms of being confident on the ice having a bully at your back.

    This seems to be a key part of the pro-Looch argument. I agree you can’t quantify it. That is exactly the problem.

    That I’m not saying you are wrong- Lucic may well be helping in ways we can’t see or understand. I’m just saying that we can’t tell the difference between “his leadership is a major factor” and “his leadership is not a factor at all”. They’d look the exact same from the outside. One of the reasons why I prefer objective arguments is we can get somewhere with them. Does the mere presence of Lucic help? No one who says they know the answer can be taken seriously.

    Personally I have a bias against paying high prices for things I can’t be sure about. But you may be right.

    (This assumes I read you right and by “you can’t quantify” you mean it’s one of those things that can’t be quantified but is definitely real. Those things are absolutely out there.)

  124. JDï™ says:

    stevezie: unfamiliar with The fabulous Marvin

    Me too. You can spot the fake name 1.6 kms away, but not the story behind it.

    Crazy. Bow wow.

  125. Georges says:

    stevezie: This seems to be a key part of the pro-Looch argument. I agree you can’t quantify it. That is exactly the problem.

    That I’m not saying you are wrong- Lucic may well be helping in ways we can’t see or understand. I’m just saying that we can’t tell the difference between “his leadership is a major factor” and “his leadership is not a factor at all”. They’d look the exact same from the outside. One of the reasons why I prefer objective arguments is we can get somewhere with them. Does the mere presence of Lucic help? No one who says they know the answer can be taken seriously.

    Personally I have a bias against paying high prices for things I can’t be sure about. But you may be right.

    (This assumes I read you right and by “you can’t quantify” you mean it’s one of those things that can’t be quantified but is definitely real. Those things are absolutely out there.)

    Here’s another part of the pro-Looch argument. Milan Lucic is a great hockey player.

    Here’s an objective argument you may or may not prefer.

    Most 5v5 points for forwards since 2010-11, regular season + playoffs (data taken from corsica yesterday):

    Player, GP, Pts

    Kane, 568, 360
    Crosby, 460, 322
    Toews, 571, 297
    Benn, 510, 293
    Getzlaf, 534, 288
    Tavares, 522, 287
    Krejci, 536, 286
    Kessel, 557, 286
    Kopitar, 578, 285
    Seguin, 544, 280
    Perry, 554, 280
    LUCIC, 588, 276
    Malkin, 459, 274
    Stamkos, 474, 272
    Marchand, 569, 272
    Ovechkin, 568, 272
    Williams, 598, 269
    Thornton, 587, 267
    Pavelski, 586, 263
    H. Sedin, 547, 262

  126. gogliano says:

    Larrson is cheaper than Demers and is 4.5 years younger — he’s a kid who’ll hit his peak with the core.

    The cost was very dear but I have no doubt that Larrson is more valuable to this team than Demers, both today and going forward.

  127. Pescador says:

    npanciroli:
    I really want to see the full list of point predictions, is this possible hunter?

    I don’t!
    I might have guessed low, and now I feel shame.

  128. Georges says:

    Bruce Wayne: Co-signed.

    This team would be better with Hall and Demers versus Lucic and Larsson.Nothing that has happened this year provides evidence against this claim.Indeed, it deepens the tragedy, the improvement in the other parts of the roster (Maroon, Kassian, Benning, Sekera, healthy Klefbom, healthy McDavid, no Korpikoski, Letestu, Draisatl a year older, Nurse not over his head) means that if you could only undo the trade you’d have a Stanley Cup contender.

    Unless someone wants to attribute all of those improvements to Larsson, which is absurd on its face.

    Conversely, the major disappointments of the season are Lucic, RNH, and Eberle, and subtracting Lucic and adding Hall solves all three problems together.

    I thought you worked alone.

    I can’t believe you co-signed something and particularly THAT.

    On defensemen, please consult ricki. He speaks strangely but he knows of what he speaks.

    Edit: It’s really nice to see you working on a day after an Oilers win by the way. Good adjustment.

  129. Pouzar says:

    On days like this I say Keep Calm and listen to Richie!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkKBcEV75WE&t=287s

  130. Melvis says:

    Apropos of nothing, any Life in the Bush of Ghosts might include the original Bush. Dominic Troiano, Whitey Glann, Prakash John et al. Any punning around Yonge Street Patty are verboten.

    I knew them not, intimately or casually, other than taking in a couple of club dates on occasion. Good band in 1970.

    The principles (all Toronto boys), later played with Alice Cooper, James Gand, Guess Who, Lou Reed and others.

  131. spoiler says:

    bendelson: Yes, insane.
    Bow-wow.

    Someone should send this to Snoop and Bow Wow.

  132. stevezie says:

    Georges,

    Great is pushing it but he has definitely been good. I don’t think anyone is denying he has had a fine career, and is a unique talent.

    I like that objective argument fine if you’re defending the signing, or trying to explain why you think he’ll be better in the future. I myself expect him to bounce back at least a little.

    That said, it’s only fair to point out that how good he has been in season’s past hasn’t helped the Oilers this season one bit. He has struggled.

  133. thurmtim says:

    hunter1909,

    My memory fails me (happens a lot lately). I remember wavering between a death march number of 91 to 101 points or thereabouts. Can you remind me what my number was? I plan to celebrate heartily the day we pass my number!

    This years version of deathmarch is too much fun. Previous years, too depressing.;)

    Thanks for checking.

  134. Georges says:

    stevezie:
    Georges,

    Great is pushing itbut he has definitely been good. I don’t think anyone is denying he has had a fine career, and is a unique talent.

    I like that objective argument fine if you’re defending the signing, or trying to explain why you think he’ll be better in the future. I myself expect him to bounce back at least a little.

    That said, it’s only fair to point out that how good he has been in season’s past hasn’t helped the Oilers this season one bit. He has struggled.

    1. Please name the other good as opposed to great players on that list so I have some reference.

    2. He has struggled to score .59 points per game. His career rate coming into the season was .61.

    3. That 5v5 P/60 number that LT shows, let’s give it some context. Lucic is at 1.17. If he scores about 9 more points, he’s at 1.50. Doesn’t look that great but the gap between where he is and where we’d like him to be, you can call it struggling, I’ll call it luck. And if he had some luck at 5v5, he’d be having a great scoring year instead of a good scoring year.

    4. Lucic is at 18th in the league in PP P/60. The Oilers PP is 4th in the league. I would love it if he continues to let pucks bounce off him and into the net. It seems to be a winning strategy. Luck evens out for him, I guess.

    5. Hasn’t helped the Oilers this season one bit? Very Bruce like comment. Objective: “(of a person or their judgment) not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts.”

  135. stevezie says:

    Georges,

    1. It’s a fine list of good players, but I don’t think I’d call Jason Williams a “great” player. Or Krejci. It’s definitely an elite heavy list, and if you were trying to build a case that Lucic is “great” this would be evidence, but don’t think he is often the best player on his line and that separates him from most of the list. Your list certainly favours good players on good teams. Is that fair to say?

    2/3/4 Yep, he has been great on the pp this year. Of course, it’s always hard to separate “the Mcdavid pp is great becausue Lucic is on it” from “Lucic has good numbers because he is on a great Mcdavid run pp”, but can we fairly say it is a little of both? I’m glad he is producing on the pp.
    His even strength struggles have been quite dramatic. Nine more points is a lot in today’s NHL.

    5. I think I may have been unclear. I’m not saying Lucic hasn’t helped the team, I’m saying his great seasons before this one haven’t helped the team. The game against the Canucks is not going to be impacted by anything Looch did with the Kings or Bruins.

    Which seems pretty objectively accurate to me.

  136. Chachi says:

    Georges: 1. Please name the other good as opposed to great players on that list so I have some reference.

    2. He has struggled to score .59 points per game. His career rate coming into the season was .61.

    3. That 5v5 P/60 number that LT shows, let’s give it some context. Lucic is at 1.17. If he scores about 9 more points, he’s at 1.50. Doesn’t look that great but the gap between where he is and where we’d like him to be, you can call it struggling, I’ll call it luck. And if he had some luck at 5v5, he’d be having a great scoring year instead of a good scoring year.

    4. Lucic is at 18th in the league in PP P/60. The Oilers PP is 4th in the league. I would love it if he continues to let pucks bounce off him and into the net. It seems to be a winning strategy. Luck evens out for him, I guess.

    5. Hasn’t helped the Oilers this season one bit? Very Bruce like comment. Objective: “(of a person or their judgment) not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts.”

    Lucic has struggled 5v5. He has been better lately. He’s been better than expected on the power play for most of the season. Anyone who argues that he does nothing to contribute to the success of the Oilers this year does not know what they are talking about or, in the case of some posters who obviously know better, are being intellectually dishonest. The former I can ignore, the latter deserve to be mocked.

  137. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    Do you guys think McLellan will get any Adams votes?

    I realize Narrative of Redemption favors Torts, very heavily.

    And Narrative of City of Lost Souls favors Babcock, very heavily.

    And we have McDavid.

    But at some point I think we look at the turnaround, the lack of any extended slumps, and the general pushback the Oilers have had this year, and we have to give McLellan some credit.

    Right Godot?

    Small sample size. Mediocrity takes time to reveal itself. #MediocrityIsADifferentKindOfHell

  138. godot10 says:

    sliderule:
    Maroon is getting the same offensive boost from Mcdavid that BJ Macdonald got from Gretzky.

    I hope Chia realizes this .

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWwOJlOI1nU

  139. Georges says:

    stevezie:
    Georges,

    1. It’s a fine list of good players, but I don’t think I’d call Jason Williams a “great” player. Or Krejci. It’s definitely an elite heavy list, and if you were trying to build a case that Lucic is “great” this would be evidence, but don’t think he is often the best player on his line and that separates him from most of the list. Your list certainly favours good players on good teams. Is that fair to say?

    2/3/4 Yep, he has been great on the pp this year. Of course, it’s always hard to separate “the Mcdavid pp is great becausue Lucic is on it” from “Lucic has good numbers because he is on a great Mcdavid run pp”, but can we fairly say it is a little of both? I’m glad he is producing on the pp.
    His even strength struggles have been quite dramatic. Nine more points is a lot in today’s NHL.

    5. I think I may have been unclear. I’m not saying Lucic hasn’t helped the team, I’m saying his great seasons before this one haven’t helped the team. The game against the Canucks is not going to be impacted by anything Looch did with the Kings or Bruins.

    Which seems pretty objectively accurate to me.

    1. My approach is simple. Great forwards if and only if great offensive stats. Trying to come up with reasons why Krejci, Williams, and Lucic don’t belong in the great forward list even though they’re in the great offensive stats list requires effort. If you can come up with another numbers-based argument against, great. You saved me effort I have no wish to make. As far as best player on his line, Lucic ranks one place higher on P1 (goals and first assists) than on total points.

    2/3/4. “His even strength struggles have been quite dramatic. Nine more points is a lot in today’s NHL.” Fine, I’ll take a closer look at the stats of that statement. I’ll do my very, very best to not stack the deck.

    5. This is right thinking. Whatever the player has done in the past does not help the team he plays for in the present. But it does set expectations. And I’ve pointed out that Lucic’s net production for the Oilers is exactly what we should have expected knowing what we know about Lucic. So, in total, Lucic is giving to his team this season exactly what he has given to his past teams on average. But you’re not happy with that. You’re separating his total production into PP and 5v5 and saying his PP is great but that could really be due to CMD, we don’t know, but his 5v5 stinks and that’s all on Lucic. I have a very, very simple reply. All goals count.

    I’m bullish on Lucic. I think he’s a great player. Let’s compare notes at the end of the season.

  140. Chachi says:

    godot10: Small sample size.Mediocrity takes time to reveal itself. #MediocrityIsADifferentKindOfHell

    Ralph Krueger needed less than 48 games to prove he was less than mediocre.

  141. Georges says:

    Chachi: Lucic has struggled 5v5. He has been better lately. He’s been better than expected on the power play for most of the season. Anyone who argues that he does nothing to contribute to the success of the Oilers this year does not know what they are talking about or, in the case of some posters who obviously know better, are being intellectually dishonest. The former I can ignore, the latter deserve to be mocked.

    You know who else has struggled at 5v5 this year? Anze Kopitar. Lucic’s most common 5v5 linemate last year. Together, their GF60 was 3.76. That pace is historically good.

    Kopitar’s most common left wings this season have been Dustin Brown and Dwight King. Kopitar’s GF60 this season is 1.95. Kopitar misses Lucic, maybe?

    Lucic’s most common linemate this season has been Jordan Eberle. With Eberle, Lucic’s GF60 is 1.77. When Lucic has played with CMD without Eberle, his GF60 (according to SuperWOWY) has been 3.42.

    The Lucic-Eberle pairing has been no great shakes but TMac sticks with it. I don’t think he’s doing it to help Lucic’s numbers. I think he wants those two to figure it out and he’s determined to have them figure it out. It’s a smart play, because if Lucic and Eberle figure out how to play together and create, this team would beat any team in the West.

  142. Georges says:

    godot10: Small sample size.Mediocrity takes time to reveal itself. #MediocrityIsADifferentKindOfHell

    So many folks with entrenched and grumpy positions on this blog. Cheering for the team must have been rough. I’ll raise a glass when you retire the hashtag. Might require a smaller sample than you think.

  143. Chachi says:

    Georges: You know who else has struggled at 5v5 this year? Anze Kopitar. Lucic’s most common 5v5 linemate last year. Together, their GF60 was 3.76. That pace is historically good.

    Kopitar’s most common left wings this season have been Dustin Brown and Dwight King. Kopitar’s GF60 this season is 1.95. Kopitar misses Lucic, maybe?

    Lucic’s most common linemate this season has been Jordan Eberle. With Eberle, Lucic’s GF60 is 1.77. When Lucic has played with CMD without Eberle, his GF60 (according to SuperWOWY) has been 3.42.

    The Lucic-Eberle pairing has been no great shakes but TMac sticks with it. I don’t think he’s doing it to help Lucic’s numbers. I think he wants those two to figure it out and he’s determined to have them figure it out. It’s a smart play, because if Lucic and Eberle figure out how to play together and create, this team would beat any team in the West.

    Yes, and it looks like they may be figuring it out now.

  144. godot10 says:

    Georges: So many folks with entrenched and grumpy positions on this blog. Cheering for the team must have been rough. I’ll raise a glass when you retire the hashtag. Might require a smaller sample than you think.

    It is a prediction more than a position. How can a “prediction” be entrenched when we are still in the early innings.

    A team with a generational player and a pretty good defense and a mediocre coach will likely do pretty well…i.e. be a perennial playoff team. How many cups will a mediocre coach win with a generational player? That is really the question my prediction addresses. My prediction is not many.
    I basically “lose” when McLellan wins one (but then the Oilers win…so from my point of view, the prediction is win-win)…but Bylsma lived off of his “one” for a long time. And Tortorella. And Hitchcock.

  145. Shane says:

    hunter1909: Fantastic.

    What’s your death march number?

    99

  146. stevezie says:

    Georges: I have a very, very simple reply. All goals count.
    I’m bullish on Lucic. I think he’s a great player. Let’s compare notes at the end of the season.

    I think this is quite fair,

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