IT NEVER RAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Before the 1994 draft, Glen Sather told his scouts he didn’t need a home run at No. 4 and No. 6, but both prospects chosen needed to be bona fide and play feature roles in the NHL for a long time. At No. 4 the team Jason Bonsignore, and it was not a successful choice. At No. 6 overall, the scouts tapped Ryan Smyth on the shoulder and gifted Oilers fans with the perfect modern Oiler. At the end of the day, procurement remains the life’s blood of an organization and getting it right with those early picks is vital.

Jesse Puljujarvi was chosen No. 4 overall in the 2016 draft, the sixth earliest selection in team history. One of the things we discussed before the beginning of this season was the his offense, because we didn’t have a long resume on his scoring ability. JP looked fabulous at the WJ’s and his Sm-Liiga numbers (50gp, 13-15-28) were lesser but in the range with Patrik Laine (46gp, 16-17-33).

This season started well (Puljujarvi scored his only NHL goal to date in Game 1) but he lost confidence and hasn’t played in the NHL since January 5. What’s he been doing in Bakersfield?

THE VERBAL

The story is here. My feeling is that quoting it in a second language would be wildly unfair, so will only say he sounds frustrated and determined based on what google translate could tell me. For our purposes, I wondered about signs of progress, and if this time in the minors is working. I can tell you that my read was this: Once Anton Lander joined his line things began hopping, but also think it’s fair to give young Puljujarvi credit for his own scoring.

  • January 2017: 9gp, 2-5-7 .778
  • February 2017: 11gp, 5-4-9 .818
  • March 2017: 8gp, 2-5-7 .875
  • Season Total: 28gp, 9-14-23 .821
  • NHLE: 82gp, 14-22-36 .439

Although my perception of his scoring is that JP has increased offense markedly in recent weeks, the numbers by month suggest he has been pretty consistent throughout the piece. Let’s compare his time in the AHL with Mikko Rantanen and his first three full months in the AHL:

  • November 2016: 10gp, 4-10-14 1.40
  • December 2016: 9gp, 5-4-9 1.00
  • February 2017: 12gp, 7-9-16 1.33
  • Season Total: 52gp, 24-36-60 1.15
  • NHLE: 82gp, 20-30-50 .610
  • Actual NHL 2016-17: 66gp, 14-17-31 .470

The problem is, you develop a past. We talked about this back in the summer, about how much offense he might deliver. JP is in the minors, and frustrated, but also learning about the game and what he has to do in order to succeed. He is not scoring at the same rate as Mikko Rantanen a year ago, and the NHL is saying we should assume something less than .500 points-per-game next year unless he plays with Connor McDavid. We may be looking at a two-way winger who does not score goals at the kind of clip we associate with a No. 4 overall selection. That is not a statement of fact. They are not elite numbers, but he is 18 and this has been a difficult road.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

In reading the interview, I was heartened by his determination and how much emotion was conveyed with his words. I will tell you we knew, and I mean early, about the 1994 draft, good and bad. Sometimes talent isn’t enough, and for me those words from Mr. Puljujarvi are the most encouraging thing about his season. Keep pushing young man, you push like hell. We are cheering for you in Edmonton.

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159 Responses to "IT NEVER RAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA"

  1. Moose says:

    Sorry to thread-jack, but there’s something I’ve been thinking about for about 6 months now, and some tweets from Arthur Staple, Dreger and McKenzie have gotten me thinking it’s now a viable strategy…

    Tavares in the Summer. If moving Nuge and/or Eberle is an eventuality why not just go big. Make a package around both of them + ?

    We’d have our Crosby/Malkin, surround them with cheap wingers, rinse and repeat for the foreseeable future.

    If you’re Snow and your back is against the wall, would you do Tavares for Nuge + Eberle + ?? Oilers maybe eat a bad contract or two (Halak, Kulemin, Grabovsky)?

  2. slopitch says:

    Good article LT. I liked the CIBC/Connor one too.

    As a #4 overall, JP has probably less raw tools then Bonsignore (perhaps close but JB was as natural as they come) and more then Smyth. 94 worked his bag off and loved the game. It’s hard to say where JP will slide in but all we can do is hope he’s determined to be a pro and enjoys doing so. With the pressure of being a pro athlete, it’s easy to lose that. With his toolset and practicing with 97 everyday he’s got a lot going for him. You said it well LT. Bust your ass kid, we are cheering for ya.

  3. gogliano says:

    Rantanen v Puljujarvi: JP looks like he is a little shy, but it’s a little closer once you factor in age difference. Rantanen’s first month in the AHL he was at 19 and a month+. JP doesn’t hit 19 until May.

    So I think it’s fair to say that JP is probably, at worst, closer to his more recent mark if we’re doing a JP v Rantanen comparison: 0.875.

  4. Younger Oil says:

    As much as some of us weren’t too impressed with the handling of JP this season, one thing that gives me hope is that the same thing happened to Draisaitl in his rookie season.

    Jesse had 28, 1-7-8.

    Leon had 37, 2-7-9.

    If only we could have sent Puljujarvi to the AHL for a lengthy playoff and Memorial Cup run to gain some confidence.

  5. OF17 says:

    The thing with Puljujarvi is we just don’t know. He hasn’t spent enough time at one level for us to see how he improves against it with time. Here are his season breakdowns by team:

    11/12: Karpat U16
    12/13: Karpat U16 and U18
    13/14: Karpat U18 and U20 (as a fifteen-year-old)
    14/15: Karpat, Hokki (Finnish AHL), and Karpat U20
    15/16: Karpat
    16/17: Edmonton, Bakersfield

    He rises through the ranks really quickly, but we don’t have the same breakdown of seasons that we do for CHL kids. A touted OHL kid is almost never playing in his rookie season the year he gets drafted. By the time they’re making the team, they already have two or three consecutive seasons of being an established player at their level. Puljujarvi will likely make the team after essentially being a rookie every season since he was fourteen and possibly beyond that. When he finally plays a second consecutive season as an established NHL player, most likely in 18/19, we’ll be in uncharted territory when it comes to how he adjusts to opponents over time.

    Good thing for us is that he’s shown a lot at a lot of different levels over the years, and he’s pretty consistently dominated his peers. He’s talented enough that he’s played above where logic would dictate for years and will finally get a chance to settle into a level of opponent. It’ll be fun to see what he does with it.

  6. Pouzar says:

    So my “send him to Finland” doesn’t look so bad now does it.

    There is a track record of Swedes/Finns of playing at home in their draft plus 1 season and there is a reason. It works.

  7. McSorley33 says:

    Crosby just scored a goal with one hand on the stick….

    Buffalo crew saying Buffalo fans started clapping….

  8. spoiler says:

    Rantanen’s Actual NHL# has probably been skewed down a bit by playing for a Panzer Division that could out-tank Rommel. Perhaps even Fieldmarshal Tambellini.

  9. Scungilli says:

    Moose:
    Sorry to thread-jack, but there’s something I’ve been thinking about for about 6 months now, and some tweets from Arthur Staple, Dreger and McKenzie have gotten me thinking it’s now a viable strategy…

    Tavares in the Summer. If moving Nuge and/or Eberle is an eventuality why not just go big. Make a package around both of them + ?

    We’d have our Crosby/Malkin, surround them with cheap wingers, rinse and repeat for the foreseeable future.

    If you’re Snow and your back is against the wall, would you do Tavares for Nuge + Eberle + ?? Oilers maybe eat a bad contract or two (Halak, Kulemin, Grabovsky)?

    You never know but I’d bet Chiarelli is looking for 3c, not 2 c because Nuge is too expensive for 3c and Leon is probably the envy of every team as a big young high scoring centre.

    Nuge for Falk, Barrie or Myers is more likely.

    With the added twist of the expansion, 3-4 teams whose dreams have died and might be blown up, perhaps there is some action this summer.

    LA
    St Louis
    San Jose
    Washington

    Could see changes if things don’t work out to plan. Maybe the Jets.

  10. Pouzar says:

    I kinda like our own Crosby and Malkin-Lite combo.

    I wouldn’t mind grabbing one of those FLA righties and saying bye to Russell.

  11. JDï™ says:

    gogliano: JP doesn’t hit 19 until May.

    And I don’t think this gets mentioned enough – Jesse spent pretty much the entire off season rehabbing from knee surgery. That’s got to put a dent in a young player’s NHL readiness.

  12. Scungilli says:

    If JP Is a bit shy on attack but has a dominant two way game maybe it turns out to be the best thing rather than a more one dimensional player. He needs to score like a first liner but not necessarily chase the Art Ross. Adding Hossa to McDavid wouldn’t suck.

  13. Mr. D. says:

    JP will be in Beast Mode in 2 years. Tough for the ego, but better for development.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Scungilli:
    If JP Is a bit shy on attack but has a dominant two way game maybe it turns out to be the best thing rather than a more one dimensional player. He needs to score like a first liner but not necessarily chase the Art Ross. Adding Hossa to McDavid wouldn’t suck.

    Yes. The Oilers did NOT keep him here and feed him the Gagner minutes.

  15. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    It’s kinda funny really, I remember the verbal from the team when Puljujarvi was sent down was that he needs to work on his play without the puck and D-zone coverage.

    Here I am thinking he was fine defensively (by number and by eye) the only issue was a lack of goals.

    Am I the only one who finds this kind of interesting?

  16. Pouzar says:

    Todd Cordell‏ @ToddCordell Mar 20
    More
    The following players have more 5v5 goals than Patrick Maroon: Rickard Rakell, Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane. That’s it.

  17. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli: You never know but I’d bet Chiarelli is looking for 3c, not 2 c because Nuge is too expensive for 3c and Leon is probably the envy of every team as a big young high scoring centre.

    Nuge for Falk, Barrie or Myers is more likely.

    With the added twist of the expansion, 3-4 teams whose dreams have died and might be blown up, perhaps there is some action this summer.

    LA
    St Louis
    San Jose
    Washington

    Could see changes if things don’t work out to plan. Maybe the Jets.

    I don’t think Myers is going to be traded any time soon.

  18. GMB3 says:

    Off topic.

    Does anyone else kind of think Mark Boroweicki kind of looks like sloth from the goonies?

  19. Scungilli says:

    Professor Q: I don’t think Myers is going to be traded any time soon.

    Given that they spend to the bottom I wonder how they keep 3 top four RHD? They need another centre for all those wingers I think. I still haven’t been convinced Trouba is content either.

  20. Chachi says:

    Pouzar:
    So my “send him to Finland” doesn’t look so bad now does it.

    There is a track record of Swedes/Finns of playing at home in their draft plus 1 season and there is a reason. It works.

    Yeah, he could have spent this year in Finland and then spent next season going through all of the culture shock, language issues etc. that he went through this year.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    It’s kinda funny really, I remember the verbal from the team when Puljujarvi was sent down was that he needs to work on his play without the puck and D-zone coverage.

    Here I am thinking he was fine defensively (by number and by eye) the only issue was a lack of goals.

    Am I the only one who finds this kind of interesting?

    He was always in a good spot to my eye but maybe the Oilers wanted him to play tighter or be more aggressive. Hard to say. I do agree that Mr. Fleming’s answers in this regard have been curious.

  22. Todd Macallan says:

    Oshie scored. 2-1 for the Not Flames

  23. Professor Q says:

    Moose:
    Sorry to thread-jack, but there’s something I’ve been thinking about for about 6 months now, and some tweets from Arthur Staple, Dreger and McKenzie have gotten me thinking it’s now a viable strategy…

    Tavares in the Summer. If moving Nuge and/or Eberle is an eventuality why not just go big. Make a package around both of them + ?

    We’d have our Crosby/Malkin, surround them with cheap wingers, rinse and repeat for the foreseeable future.

    If you’re Snow and your back is against the wall, would you do Tavares for Nuge + Eberle + ?? Oilers maybe eat a bad contract or two (Halak, Kulemin, Grabovsky)?

    What happens to Draisaitl?

  24. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli: Given that they spend to the bottom I wonder how they keep 3 top four RHD? They need another centre for all those wingers I think. I still haven’t been convinced Trouba is content either.

    I just think they’ve shown this season that the team, fan base, and city are invested heavily in Myers. They’ve supported him and his family through a tough time all season and I think they’ll stick with him. I don’t think they’d want to cause more havoc in his life by trading him ASAP.

  25. Todd Macallan says:

    3-1 Not Flames, after two periods.

  26. Moose says:

    Professor Q: What happens to Draisaitl?

    Stays at wing and you pay him Eberle’s money. I mean the wild card in all this is that we still don’t definitively know if Leon can drive his own line. I think he can, but it’s not the dead cert that people are making it out to be. Somebody is going to have to take Nuge’s tough minutes if you trade him.

  27. hoser313 says:

    Too early to judge JP.

    Lots of 18 yr olds have struggled in the NHL in their rookie year.

    I think another year for him with consistent ice time will help everyone.

  28. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: He was always in a good spot to my eye but maybe the Oilers wanted him to play tighter or be more aggressive. Hard to say. I do agree that Mr. Fleming’s answers in this regard have been curious.

    Do you think certain minor league coaches undersell talented rookies in order to keep them longer and find more team success?

    Say you got a stud prospect on your AHL team, and the coach knows hes helping him win and improve his coaching record.

    Wouldn’t it be in the coaches best interest to say the kids struggling in some unseen area just so you can keep him and milk that talent a little longer?

    I’m not accusing Flemming of this at all, maybe there is something with Pulju that we don’t see on the surface but still an interesting thought

  29. Rondo says:

    Moose,

    If NYI were ever to trade Tavares their ask would start with Draisaitl

  30. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Yeah, he could have spent this year in Finland and then spent next season going through all of the culture shock, language issues etc. that he went through this year.

    Yeah like 4000 other successful Finnish players. We’ve been through this.

  31. Pouzar says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Oshie scored. 2-1 for the Not Flames

    Can we get this guy?

  32. Moose says:

    Rondo:
    Moose,

    If NYI ever to trade Tavares their ask would start withDraisaitl

    Fair. Discuss!

  33. godot10 says:

    A suggestion:

    Klefbom and Larsson #BeautyAndTheBeast

  34. JDï™ says:

    Pouzar: The following players have more 5v5 goals than Patrick Maroon: Rickard Rakell, Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane. That’s it.

    I’ll guess that none of those players have 89 PIMs, with 45 of those being fighting majors.

    After a friend and I started playing some roller hockey, one summer many moons ago, he said he couldn’t believe how much his ‘hand eye’ improved, and he had played some very high level hockey before that.

    You really have to concentrate on putting the proper spin on the puck, and keeping it on your stick is more difficult than an ice puck. I guess that’s kind of like Espo, training with tennis balls in the off season.

  35. godot10 says:

    Moose:
    Sorry to thread-jack, but there’s something I’ve been thinking about for about 6 months now, and some tweets from Arthur Staple, Dreger and McKenzie have gotten me thinking it’s now a viable strategy…

    Tavares in the Summer. If moving Nuge and/or Eberle is an eventuality why not just go big. Make a package around both of them + ?

    We’d have our Crosby/Malkin, surround them with cheap wingers, rinse and repeat for the foreseeable future.

    If you’re Snow and your back is against the wall, would you do Tavares for Nuge + Eberle + ?? Oilers maybe eat a bad contract or two (Halak, Kulemin, Grabovsky)?

    I think Dougie is getting Snow’s job in May! #TheWeight #PutItOnHim

  36. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: Do you think certain minor league coaches undersell talented rookies in order to keep them longer and find more team success?

    Say you got a stud prospect on your AHL team, and the coach knows hes helping him win and improve his coaching record.

    Wouldn’t it be in the coaches best interest to say the kids struggling in some unseen area just so you can keep him and milk that talent a little longer?

    I’m not accusing Flemming of this at all, maybe there is something with Pulju that we don’t see on the surface but still an interesting thought

    Great question, don’t know the answer. I think AHL coaches like their veteran players, just like NHL coaches. I also suspect there is a tremendous amount of pressure not to screw up No. 4 overall picks, but beyond that it is all kind of guessing.

  37. spoiler says:

    JDï™,

    Auston Matthews is the best fighter in the League.

  38. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Yeah like 4000 other successful Finnish players. We’ve been through this.

    Nice hyperbole; you’ve proven nothing on this.

  39. Diablo says:

    Pouzar: Can we get this guy?

    30 years old – is going to want 5-6 years at 6 million per – he’ll get it too because the UFA crop is so weak this year. Nice player, but totally wrong for us.

    Tavares is a pipe dream – a nice one to be sure – but Snow would be finished if he made that deal this summer and created a dynasty team in Edmonton. Only way Snow keeps his job is if he signs JT, otherwise he and that franchise’s marketability are tanked.

    Best bet to getting Tavares is to set the stage this summer – move Eberle, RNH and Pouliot out for cheaper contracts to create the cap space needed to sign him to an 8-10 million dollar per year deal. Then have the media write stories ad museum about a dream scenario for Tavares playing on McDavid’s wing. Then hope to hell that Snow blows it and Tavares reaches UFA.

    Not saying it can’t happen, but it’s very risky.

  40. Scungilli says:

    Professor Q: I just think they’ve shown this season that the team, fan base, and city are invested heavily in Myers. They’ve supported him and his family through a tough time all season and I think they’ll stick with him. I don’t think they’d want to cause more havoc in his life by trading him ASAP.

    I didn’t realize there were family issues, so what do they do? Each season brings it’s own cap concerns. They have the cap to sign Trouba but they are pretty thin on top pairing LD now.

  41. godot10 says:

    Pouzar:
    Todd Cordell‏ @ToddCordellMar 20
    MoreThe following players have more 5v5 goals than Patrick Maroon: Rickard Rakell, Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane. That’s it.

    Brett Callighen, Blair McDonald, Dave Lumley, Warren Young, and Rob Brown say Hi

  42. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Great question, don’t know the answer. I think AHL coaches like their veteran players, just like NHL coaches. I also suspect there is a tremendous amount of pressure not to screw up No. 4 overall picks, but beyond that it is all kind of guessing.

    Agree.

    Do you think Chia is just waiting for the Oilers mathematical playoff clinch before calling Jesse up or are they actually looking for him to become Hossa in the minors?

    When they call him up, is it Slepy or Khaira that go down? Caggulia is ineligible. (IMO Caggulia should have had the paper transaction affect him on deadline day as well)

    Logic dictates that you add a RW, subtract a RW.

    But IMO Slepy has out played Khaira.

    Tough call.

  43. Side says:

    Pouzar: Yeah like 4000 other successful Finnish players. We’ve been through this.

    JP goes to Finland, works on puck protection. Comes back to NA following year to learn the language and get exposed to the culture.

    Or

    Goes to AHL in North America, learns puck protection and the language and gets exposed to the culture.

    One seems more efficient than the other. Why would going to Finland be the best way again?

    Surely there are “4000” finnish players who were successful coming to North America to play when they were JP’s age as well?

  44. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Nice hyperbole; you’ve proven nothing on this.

    I’ve given the list of players. It is quite comprehensive.
    You’ve offered SFA to back up your position. End of.

  45. spoiler says:

    Frickin Brouwer.

  46. Pouzar says:

    Side: Surely there are “4000” finnish players who were successful coming to North America to play when they were JP’s age as well?

    I gave MY list. We can compare lists if you like. You go first.

  47. spoiler says:

    Thank you Capital Powerplay

  48. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: I’ve given the list of players. It is quite comprehensive.
    You’ve offered SFA to back up your position. End of.

    Your list of players has nothing to do with JP at all.

  49. Side says:

    Pouzar: I gave MY list. We can compare lists if you like. You go first.

    Is this a list of all Finnish players who were successful in Finland before coming over and playing in the NHL, and a list of all Finnish players who were successful coming straight to NA and the minors before playing in the NHL?

  50. tcho says:

    That’s a shame about Cowtown losing in regulation tonight.

  51. Diablo says:

    tcho:
    That’s a shame about Cowtown losing in regulation tonight.

    Tomorrow’s game against Anaheim is HUGE!

  52. Scungilli says:

    Side: JP goes to Finland, works on puck protection. Comes back to NA following year to learn the language and get exposed to the culture.

    Or

    Goes to AHL in North America, learns puck protection and the language and gets exposed to the culture.

    One seems more efficient than the other. Why would going to Finland be the best way again?

    Surely there are “4000” finnish players who were successful coming to North America to play when they were JP’s age as well?

    I think it comes down to how much English they have. JP had little. Many Europeans can manage before they come over, less stress.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Centre: I honestly don’t know. McLellan likes his team, so changes seem unlikely without injury.

  54. Chachi says:

    Side: JP goes to Finland, works on puck protection. Comes back to NA following year to learn the language and get exposed to the culture.

    Or

    Goes to AHL in North America, learns puck protection and the language and gets exposed to the culture.

    One seems more efficient than the other. Why would going to Finland be the best way again?

    Common sense isn’t it?

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VAN leading CHI 3-1 while being outshot 5-11 halfway through the game because hockey has no randomness, is just, and rewards good play.

    The trap is good hockey and everyone enjoys watching it.

  56. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I sense no hint of sarcasm at all.

  57. flyfish1168 says:

    at the end of the day I just want Jesse to have a substantially better playing career then that dirty phlegm player.

  58. Pouzar says:

    Side: Is this a list of all Finnish players who were successful in Finland before coming over and playing in the NHL, and a list of all Finnish players who were successful coming straight to NA and the minors before playing in the NHL?

    My list is a list of players who played their Draft +1 (or more) season(s) in Finland and did “ok” in the NHL.

  59. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Common sense isn’t it?

    Yes…this was the crux of your argument. Thanks for reminding me.

  60. unca miltie says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    On another note. Woodguy was right about the Blues over the Kings and I was wrong.

  61. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Yes…this was the crux of your argument. Thanks for reminding me.

    Yes, the crux of my argument is common sense.

  62. Pouzar says:

    Suck it Flames!

  63. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Yes, the crux of my argument is common sense.

    Quite the list of NHLers from Finland that defied your “common sense”.

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    unca miltie:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    On another note. Woodguy was right about the Bluesover the Kings and I was wrong.

    You’re sweet Unky Milt.

  65. Todd Macallan says:

    Pouzar:
    Suck it Flames!

    Finally, something we ALL can agree on.

  66. Chachi says:

    Pouzar:
    Suck it Flames!

    See? Common sense.

  67. flyfish1168 says:

    Pouzar:
    Suck it Flames!

    Common thing around here

  68. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Quite the list of NHLers from Finland that defied your “common sense”.

    Quite a list of NHL’ers from Finland who did “alright”. I would like JP to do better than “alright”.

  69. sliderule says:

    Here are some statistics for players after draft to compare with JP.

    Thornton NHL 55g 3-4 -7
    Hossa NHL 7g 0-1-1
    Draisaitl. NHL 37g 2-7-9
    Draft +2 AHL 6g 1-1-2
    Puljujarvi. NHL. 28g 1-7-
    Draft +1 AHL 28 9-14-23

    I don’t know the ice time that Thornton and Hossa got but I do know ha Leon got lots of ice with Hall and oilers best at that time.
    I also know that JP got very little ice and minimum time with oilers best.
    I don’t disagree with JP getting less ice as the oilers are in win mode and he is very young.

    I was happy he was kept in NHL as long as possible as I have zero confidence in the head coach in the AHL.

    In the AHL he has scored at a decent rate and the points have showed his skill level.

    Next year we will know the answer ..

  70. Side says:

    Pouzar: My list is a list of players who played their Draft +1 (or more) season(s) in Finland and did “ok” in the NHL.

    Oh, is there a list out there that shows Finnish players who played their Draft +1 (or more) season(s) in NA and did “ok” in the NHL?

  71. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Quite a list of NHL’ers from Finland who did “alright”. I would like JP to do better than “alright”.

    Teemu Selanne
    Mikko Koivu
    Saku Koivu
    Oli Jokinen
    Esa Tikkanen

    That kinda “alright”.

  72. who says:

    I think we are worrying about nothing with JP.
    If you want some perseptive think back to Drai’s first season as a 19 year old. He showed flashes of brilliance, particularly with his vision and passing that was already looking NHL elite, but he seemed slow and hesitant. He also got knocked off the puck fairly easily.
    Now look at JP’s first season here as an 18 year old. I saw the same sort of flashes of brilliance but I also saw a better skater who seemed to be more aware defensively. At the age of eighteen!
    JP looks like he is going to be a very good player here for many years. We just neeed to have a little patience.

  73. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Teemu Selanne
    Mikko Koivu
    Saku Koivu
    Oli Jokinen
    Esa Tikkanen

    That kinda “alright”.

    At least you have a couple of players who played this decade on your list this time. We are not going to agree on this, ever.

  74. Pescador says:

    Pouzar: Teemu Selanne
    Mikko Koivu
    Saku Koivu
    Oli Jokinen
    Esa Tikkanen

    That kinda “alright”.

    I don’t know if the two of you are enjoying yourselves, but you’ll be glad to know that I certainly am!
    I thank you for your vigorous bickering,
    And BTW, you’re both wrong! haha

  75. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: At least you have a couple of players who played this decade on your list this time. We are not going to agree on this, ever.

    Oh ok.

    So the vast majority of the Finnish World Cup roster doesn’t count either.

    Gotcha.

  76. Chachi says:

    Side: Oh, is there a list out there that shows Finnish players who played their Draft +1 (or more) season(s) in NA and did “ok” in the NHL?

    What Colorado did with Rantanen and what the Oilers did with JP(when they finally sent him down to the Condors) will become the norm for Euros drafted in the firts round. The longshots can stay in Europe and take a stab at coming over 3 or 4 years after they have been drafted, but the first rounders will start coming over in bigger numbers. It just makes sense.

  77. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: What Colorado did with Rantanen and what the Oilers did with JP(when they finally sent him down to the Condors) will become the norm for Euros drafted in the firts round. The longshots can stay in Europe and take a stab at coming over 3 or 4 years after they have been drafted, but the first rounders will start coming over in bigger numbers. It just makes sense.

    What’s that?

    18 of the top 20 all time scoring Finnish born players played in Finland after they were drafted?

    Yup.

  78. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: It just makes sense.

    Can’t argue with that. You must be a legend on HFBoards.

  79. Side says:

    who:
    I think we are worrying about nothing with JP.
    If you want some perseptive think back to Drai’s first season as a 19 year old. He showed flashes of brilliance, particularly with his vision and passing that was already looking NHL elite, but he seemed slow and hesitant. He also got knocked off the puck fairly easily.
    Now look at JP’s first season here as an 18 year old. I saw the same sort of flashes of brilliance but I also saw a better skater who seemed to be more aware defensively. At the age of eighteen!
    JP looks like he is going to be a very good player here for many years. We just neeed to have a little patience.

    I remember when Drai was called up for the final time after posting meh numbers in Bakersfield. People were freaking out that his development was being ruined and it would be another failed draft pick by the Oilers. Then he got 4 points (?) in his first game back with the Oilers and hasn’t looked back since.

    Ahhh, memories.

  80. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Oh ok.

    So the vast majority of the Finnish World Cup roster doesn’t count either.

    Gotcha.

    Their stellar showing in the World Cup is surely something to aspire to. Too bad JP missed out on playing with the likes of Lauri Korpikoski and Jyrki Jokipakka.

  81. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Their stellar showing in the World Cup is surely something to aspire to. Too bad JP missed out on playing with the likes of Lauri Korpikoski and Jyrki Jokipakka.

    Wow! Look at that evidence!

    You can’t be beat!

  82. Professor Q says:

    I know it’s going to be unpopular, but I don’t get the hive buzz around Crosby’s goal tonight.

    Apparently he split the red sea and brought Lazarus back.

  83. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Can’t argue with that. You must be a legend on HFBoards.

    I never posted there, but I believe many people who post here did. Is that supposed to be an insult? Is that what you do when someone disagrees with you about something?

  84. Centre of attention says:

    Professor Q:
    I know it’s going to be unpopular, but I don’t get the hive buzz around Crosby’s goal tonight.

    Apparently he split the red sea and brought Lazarus back.

    YEah the Buffalo D were caught also in picture but man a one hand backhand shot top cheddar is amazing in beer league nevermind in the NHL

    Credit where due Crosby is right up there with McDavid with his ability to bend reality. And he’s been doing it for a decade to boot 🙂

  85. Receptor Antagonist says:

    Diablo: 30 years old – is going to want 5-6 years at 6 million per – he’ll get it too because the UFA crop is so weak this year. Nice player, but totally wrong for us.

    Tavares is a pipe dream – a nice one to be sure – but Snow would be finished if he made that deal this summer and created a dynasty team in Edmonton. Only way Snow keeps his job is if he signs JT, otherwise he and that franchise’s marketability are tanked.

    Best bet to getting Tavares is to set the stage this summer – move Eberle, RNH and Pouliot out for cheaper contracts to create the cap space needed to sign him to an 8-10 million dollar per year deal. Then have the media write stories ad museum about a dream scenario for Tavares playing on McDavid’s wing. Then hope to hell that Snow blows it and Tavares reaches UFA.

    Not saying it can’t happen, but it’s very risky.

    I’m not necessarily disagreeing with any of your points, most importantly that Tavares is a pipe dream, but one very important point you brought up is in fact false, and pretty significant.

    Tavares is currently only about 26.5 years of age and doesn’t turn 27 until September. That is a hugely significant difference to what you stated.

  86. Chachi says:

    Pescador: I don’t know if the two of you are enjoying yourselves, but you’ll be glad to know that I certainly am!
    I thank you for your vigorous bickering,
    And BTW, you’re both wrong! haha

    🙂

  87. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: I Never posted there, but I believe many people who post here did. Is that supposed to be an insult? Is that what you do when someone disagrees with you about something?

    Spare me. You’ve been condescending the very moment we’ve engaged on this months ago.
    You will get no apologies from me.

  88. ristojalo says:

    The majority of these players stayed in Finland to complete their mandatory military service, not because the teams felt it was better for their development. Finnish players now have the option of doing their service during the summers.

    Pouzar: Oh ok.

    So the vast majority of the Finnish World Cup roster doesn’t count either.

    Gotcha.

  89. Professor Q says:

    Centre of attention: YEah the Buffalo D were caught also in picture but man a one hand backhand shot top cheddar is amazing in beer league nevermind in the NHL

    Credit where due Crosby is right up there with McDavid with his ability to bend reality. And he’s been doing it for a decade to boot

    Well yes, the D seemed to just stand still and let him glide through, is what I meant. I didn’t see the one-hand part but yes credit where credit is due, indeed.

    Reminds me of Forsberg’s one-hand backhand top corner shot from the blue line video, just not as far nor as powerful.

  90. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Looking at Nylander, Pastrnak, and Rantanen before him I thought a full season in Bako would do Pulju well. His scoring is still great for an 18YO IMO, notably younger than Rantanen. I still see a 65-70P two-way winger in his future. At the time of the draft supposed to be a better prospect than Draisaitl was. I’m still a big believer.

  91. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Spare me. You’ve been condescending the very moment we’ve engaged on this months ago.
    You will get no apologies from me.

    I wasn’t asking for any apologies.

  92. Chachi says:

    ristojalo:
    The majority of these players stayed in Finland to complete their mandatory military service, not because the teams felt it was better for their development. Finnish players now have the option of doing their service during the summers.

    That seems like relevant information. Thank you.

  93. Scungilli says:

    Black and White is rarely true, everything is actually Gray.

  94. Professor Q says:

    On another note, Bettman seems set on not jiving with the IOC.

    Many players want to go, regardless of the decision of the league. Others say they wish to go, hope to go, but will wait and see.

    Could this cause issues with the future CBA? Bettman booted?

  95. Pouzar says:

    ristojalo:
    The majority of these players stayed in Finland to complete their mandatory military service, not because the teams felt it was better for their development. Finnish players now have the option of doing their service during the summers.

    They have till age 29 to do it and it’s 6 months long. The majority of people on my list played multiple seasons in Finland.

    Some elect to wait and don’t do it right away. Mikko Koivu waited till he was 28.

  96. Side says:

    Pouzar: They have till age 29 to do it and it’s 6 months long. The majority of people on my list played multiple seasons in Finland.

    Some elect to wait and don’t do it right away. Mikko Koivu waited till he was 28.

    So there isn’t a list for the below

    “Oh, is there a list out there that shows Finnish players who played their Draft +1 (or more) season(s) in NA and did “ok” in the NHL?”

    ?

  97. ristojalo says:

    Agreed, but the majority of players prefer to get it out of the way. I would presume teams would rather have their Finnish born players complete the service when they are younger and not an established player. Koivu took a risk waiting that long – had Minnesota been in a long playoff run that year, he may not have had enough time to complete his service.

    Pouzar: They have till age 29 to do it and it’s 6 months long. The majority of people on my list played multiple seasons in Finland.

    Some elect to wait and don’t do it right away. Mikko Koivu waited till he was 28.

    The majority of these players stayed in Finland to complete their mandatory military service, not because the teams felt it was better for their development. Finnish players now have the option of doing their service during the summers.

    Pouzar: Oh ok.

    So the vast majority of the Finnish World Cup roster doesn’t count either.

    Gotcha.

  98. GMB3 says:

    Receptor Antagonist: I’m not necessarily disagreeing with any of your points, most importantly that Tavares is a pipe dream, but one very important point you brought up is in fact false, and pretty significant.

    Tavares is currently only about 26.5 years of age and doesn’t turn 27 until September. That is a hugely significant difference to what you stated.

    His first point was referring to TJ Oshie I believe

  99. ristojalo says:

    My apologies, first time poster and haven’t figured out how to quote properly.

  100. gogliano says:

    SJS with the loss in regulation. That #1 slot is now really in play.

  101. kgo says:

    GMB3:
    Off topic.

    Does anyone else kind of think Mark Boroweicki kind of looks like sloth from the goonies?

    Not as much as Mark Giordano looks like a young Mr. Bean!

  102. Pouzar says:

    Side: So there isn’t a list for the below

    “Oh, is there a list out there that shows Finnish players who played their Draft +1 (or more) season(s) in NA and did “ok” in the NHL?”

    ?

    As already stated, 18 of the top 20 All Time “Finnish born” NHL scorers.

  103. Pouzar says:

    ristojalo,

    Like I said earlier, from my list, a majority played multiple seasons in Finland past their respective draft years.

  104. kgo says:

    Professor Q:
    I know it’s going to be unpopular, but I don’t get the hive buzz around Crosby’s goal tonight.

    Apparently he split the red sea and brought Lazarus back.

    Are you serious? Is this sarcastic? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED!?

  105. Side says:

    Pouzar: As already stated, 18 of the top 20 All Time “Finnish born” NHL scorers.

    Do you think they will always be the top 18/20 and won’t be threatened by any upcoming Finnish AHL – NHL players?

    Or I guess a different way of asking is, do you think the players who stay in Finland will always perform better than those that play in North America?

  106. Receptor Antagonist says:

    GMB3: His first point was referring to TJ Oshie I believe

    Ahhh, that makes more sense! Thanks for pointing that out!

  107. digger50 says:

    Pouzar:
    So my “send him to Finland” doesn’t look so bad now does it.

    There is a track record of Swedes/Finns of playing at home in their draft plus 1 season and there is a reason. It works.

    I was also in favour of sending him to Finland. Sorry. I have not read to Finnish article but it seemed to me that JP,limitations and adjustments were not about on ice play.

    What cannot be measured or forecast was maturity and culture shock. Tough to build that into an NHLE. But certainly Oilers would have seen this early.

    I thought exposure to North American hockey then a return to Finland would serve him best as a teenager. Hard to gain confidence when your not even sure how to order a cheeseburger. Would have liked to seen his family over a bit more, if that was possible.

    Oil have got him mentors, language coach, etc. Done everything they could (I think) but it must still be hard.

    Personally I think the player is 50 point player on the second line and 65 on the first. But he’ll need two years to get there.

  108. Pouzar says:

    Side: Do you think they will always be the top 18/20 and won’t be threatened by any upcoming Finnish AHL – NHL players?

    Or I guess a different way of asking is, do you think the players who stay in Finland will always perform better than those that play in North America?

    I don’t have those answers. But it will take a heckuva run to beat that list of players.

  109. spoiler says:

    Pouzar: As already stated, 18 of the top 20 All Time “Finnish born” NHL scorers.

    While this is evidence of something, it is not proof that other paths are invalid or would not have worked for these 18 people.

  110. Pouzar says:

    digger50: I was also in favour of sending him to Finland. Sorry. I have not read to Finnish article but it seemed to me that JP,limitations and adjustments were not about on ice play.

    What cannot be measured or forecast was maturity and culture shock. Tough to build that into an NHLE. But certainly Oilers would have seen this early.

    I thought exposure to North American hockey then a return to Finland would serve him best as a teenager. Hard to gain confidence when your not even sure how to order a cheeseburger. Would have liked to seen his family over a bit more, if that was possible.

    Oil have got him mentors, language coach, etc. Done everything they could (I think) but it must still be hard.

    Personally I think the player is 50 point player on the second line and 65 on the first. But he’ll need two years to get there.

    I did this same exercise for All Time leading “Swedish born” NHL scorers.

    I stopped at Forsberg.

    Culture shock is a thing for 18 yr olds.

  111. The Hermit says:

    ristojalo: My apologies, first time poster and haven’t figured out how to quote properly.

    You probably did it right, this site is “quirky “, and not just the posters!

  112. Chachi says:

    spoiler: While this is evidence of something, it is not proof that other paths are invalid or would not have worked for these 18 people.

    Yup.

  113. Diablo says:

    Receptor Antagonist: I’m not necessarily disagreeing with any of your points, most importantly that Tavares is a pipe dream, but one very important point you brought up is in fact false, and pretty significant.

    Tavares is currently only about 26.5 years of age and doesn’t turn 27 until September. That is a hugely significant difference to what you stated.

    Was talking about Oshie – sorry should have put that in separate posts to avoid the confusion

  114. HT Joe says:

    Professor Q:
    I know it’s going to be unpopular, but I don’t get the hive buzz around Crosby’s goal tonight.
    Apparently he split the red sea and brought Lazarus back.

    His goal combined the power of Moses AND Jesus? Holy smokes… I gotta see this goal.

  115. digger50 says:

    Just caught up on this thread.

    Many comments on wanting to manage what they can see. The hockey.

    You manage the person and the skill will come along in due time. There are few comparables, as everyone will be different.

  116. HT Joe says:

    HT Joe: His goal combined the power of Moses AND Jesus?Holy smokes… I gotta see this goal.

    That was a pretty fine goal. More sleight-of-hand than true miracle, but still a heckuva goal.

  117. godot10 says:

    Go. Go Magnus Go! Go. Magnus be good! -).

    Paajarvi no longer gets lost on the perimeter. He has finally discovered where the net is.

  118. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: While this is evidence of something, it is not proof that other paths are invalid or would not have worked for these 18 people.

    I thought evidence is what we do here. I am not the one discounting either route for the record. When this debate first came about the overwhelming sentiment was the AHL route. I offered up what I thought was evidence to the contrary.

  119. spoiler says:

    Pouzar,

    I thought the discussion tonight was begun by the following post:

    Pouzar: So my “send him to Finland” doesn’t look so bad now does it.
    There is a track record of Swedes/Finns of playing at home in their draft plus 1 season and there is a reason. It works.

    Which means you are discounting other routes, no?

  120. Diablo says:

    Receptor Antagonist: I’m not necessarily disagreeing with any of your points, most importantly that Tavares is a pipe dream, but one very important point you brought up is in fact false, and pretty significant.

    Tavares is currently only about 26.5 years of age and doesn’t turn 27 until September. That is a hugely significant difference to what you stated.

    I mean its possible to get Tavares – the situation in Brooklyn is not great – that team as currently constructed is not getting JT to a cup final. Add to that the financial issues and being constantly rumoured to move to another suburb of NY, and you’d think he might be getting fed up. All of this after signing a team friendly deal.

    I think its very likely that he will test market as a UFA.

  121. Side says:

    Pouzar: I don’t have those answers. But it will take a heckuva run to beat that list of players.

    The list you gave is pretty convincing. But I wonder if those 18 performed the way they did because of the Finnish developmental system, or because they are just players who would have had a successful career in any country that plays hockey.

    Like Selanne. Did he become Selanne because he played those extra years in Finland before the NHL? Or would he have had similar success throughout his career if he went to NA instead?

    I know it’s more questions we can’t really answer but, I’m confident JP won’t be tanked just because he’s in the AHL and not in Finland. I guess we’ll see.

  122. spoiler says:

    Pouzar: I thought evidence is what we do here.

    Fo’shizz… whatever that means. Seriously, have no idea what it means.

    But it might be evidence of a different time or world, as opposed to a better development path.

    We wouldn’t know whether “this path is better” is true without some form of control group, and even then, we couldn’t control for individual talent so would need to study a large population of prospects to wash out the anomalies.

    Really we need Rick’s portal gun and then some way of recording the results in all the different parallel universes.

  123. Bruce Wayne says:

    There is nothing about what Chachi and Side are saying that makes sense here, common or otherwise.

    The suggestion that you cannot identify patterns and that every player is “unique” is, for lack of a better word, non-sense.

    And in this particular situation, the Oilers have an awful coach in the AHL who demonstrates his ignorance every time he opens his mouth. So even if bringing the player over early was a good idea in general it is a bad idea int his particular case.

    And this is all without considering the contractual implications.

    Bringing him over was an awful decision, that has turned out badly.

  124. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    There is nothing about what Chachi and Side are saying that makes sense here, common or otherwise.

    The suggestion that you cannot identify patterns and that every player is “unique” is, for lack of a better word, non-sense.

    And in this particular situation, the Oilers have an awful coach in the AHL who demonstrates his ignorance every time he opens his mouth.So even if bringing the player over early was a good idea in general it is a bad idea int his particular case.

    And this is all without considering the contractual implications.

    Bringing him over was an awful decision, that has turned out badly.

    I feel even better about my position on this now.

  125. Pouzar says:

    spoiler:
    Pouzar,

    I thought the discussion tonight was begun by the following post:

    Which means you ARE discounting other routes, no?

    This one goes back months ago. Like I mentioned the overall sentiment then was the AHL was the best route to go. I was in the vast minority when I suggested SM-liiga as an option and was ridiculed by a certain poster for this. I didn’t dismiss the AHL option as much as this certain poster dismissed the SM-liiga outright which I thought was ridiculous and felt the need to defend it. The track record is there. I draw no definitive conclusions on any route but at least I offered up said “evidence” instead of condescension.

  126. Bruce Wayne says:

    And of course, Puljujarvi hasn’t been “ruined” by this season. You can’t “ruin” a player in a year. But that was never the claim. You also can’t know the future, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t make the best decision you can based upon the information you have, and the information we have, both empirical and theoretical, indicates that it was better to leave Puljujarvi in Finland. Against this is the idea that the Oilers (and the NHL) know better how to develop players by teaching them to play the “right way” and other such nonsense.

  127. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: I feel even better about my position on this now.

    A position. Based on ‘Common Sense’.

    Yeah yeah.

  128. Bruce Wayne says:

    Chachi: I feel even better about my position on this now.

    You can go on being wrong about everything. It is who you are.

  129. spoiler says:

    Pouzar: As already stated, 18 of the top 20 All Time “Finnish born” NHL scorers.

    I’m guessing also that the Finnish League is much like other leagues in that its worst 20 players will all have stayed there for a year too. And that the vast majority of players that stay for the year fail to make the NHL.

    Now, that’s not evidence staying there is bad either. About all we can say about which is the better path is, “we can’t say.”

  130. Diablo says:

    Also way too early to get worried about Jesse – he’s 18, still growing, in a new country, playing a very different style of hockey against men who are also pretty good at hockey (even at the AHL level).

    Its a good thing that he’s going through some adversity now – watching his countryman Laine get all the accolades has to be eating away at him – that kind of motivation is a good thing. He’s going do what the coaches want from him – and it will make him a better player. When he finally arrives he’s going to be a possession monster that’s good to great in his own zone.

    Laine on the other hand is going top out as a one trick pony (a pretty good trick though) – right now he’s having everything handed to him on a silver platter. But he’s lost in his own end, and needs Scheifele and Ehlers to get him the puck. I like Jets fans a lot – but Matthews is hands down better.

    Speaking of Scheifele – nobody thought he’d be the best player to come out of the 2011 draft. In fact, the Jets got roasted for selecting him over Couturier. I think it will go the same way for Jesse too – steady progression, rather than bursting on the scene like a supernova, then fizzling out the way Landeskog and RNH have.

  131. Gordies Elbow says:

    Chachi: I feel even better about my position on this now.

    I feel better about your position, as well.

    Unique player, due to size, knee injury, not having the language skills that many in Finland have, learning how to be responsible in a new system.

    Having success in the minors, learning and acclimatizing to the north american game.

    Seems like a good thing.

  132. spoiler says:

    Pouzar: This one goes back months ago. Like I mentioned the overall sentiment then was the AHL was the best route to go. I was in the vast minority when I suggested SM-liiga as an option and was ridiculed by a certain poster for this. I didn’t dismiss the AHL option as much as this certain poster dismissed the SM-liiga outright which I thought was ridiculous and felt the need to defend it. The track record is there. I draw no definitive conclusions on any route but at least I offered up said “evidence” instead of condescension.

    Thanks for the heads up, I do appreciate it. I don’t see that same claim being made tonight though.

    Myself, since there is no clear evidence of a “better” path (and even if there was it would speak to the general not the specific)…

    I’m going to go with the player, his parents, his agent, and his team… all of whom have his future development in their best interest. Could he have stayed there? Sure, wouldn’t upset me. Could he come over? Same thing. Really depends on him and his comfort level.

  133. Side says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    There is nothing about what Chachi and Side are saying that makes sense here, common or otherwise.

    The suggestion that you cannot identify patterns and that every player is “unique” is, for lack of a better word, non-sense.

    And in this particular situation, the Oilers have an awful coach in the AHL who demonstrates his ignorance every time he opens his mouth.So even if bringing the player over early was a good idea in general it is a bad idea int his particular case.

    And this is all without considering the contractual implications.

    Bringing him over was an awful decision, that has turned out badly.

    So what did I say exactly that “doesn’t make sense”?

    I’m curious to see some specific examples here.

  134. Professor Q says:

    What about the ones who played elsewhere in Europe than Finland?

  135. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: “we can’t say.”

    Fair enough.
    I took issue with it being dismissed out of hand and the condescending way in which it was done.

  136. Side says:

    Chachi: I feel even better about my position on this now.

    Definitely. You know you’re in a good space when Bruce Wayne disagrees with you. It means you haven’t ventured into the crazy territory where you obsess over whether Chiarelli has worn a tracksuit or not.

  137. spoiler says:

    Pouzar,

    *shrugs*

    We’re all guilty of misunderstandings.

    😉

  138. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne: You can go on being wrong about everything. It is who you are.

    Thanks!

  139. spoiler says:

    However, this discussion shouldn’t distract us from the fact that…

    I STILL WANT RICK’S PORTAL GUN, PEOPLE!!

  140. Centre of attention says:

    I can’t wait until the Oilers play again tomorrow

    Worrying about prospects is such a rebuild thing to do

    Wait until Peter starts trading these cats for grey beards with cup rings.

    /sarcasm

  141. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Fair enough.
    I took issue with it being dismissed out of hand and the condescending way in which it was done.

    Fair enough.

  142. Professor Q says:

    spoiler:
    However, this discussion shouldn’t distract us from the fact that…

    I STILL WANT RICK’S PORTAL GUN, PEOPLE!!

    Hey…I think I’ve heard about portals before. My former employer’s rival had something to do with them and cake…

  143. Side says:

    spoiler:
    However, this discussion shouldn’t distract us from the fact that…

    I STILL WANT RICK’S PORTAL GUN, PEOPLE!!

    Ugh, thanks for reminding me that the next season is an eternity away.

  144. VOR says:

    Bruce,

    Actually, as a simple statement of fact, every player is unique. You can identify every “pattern” you wish. You can’t apply those patterns to all individuals because patterns occur within a set or a population and individuals are not sets and not populations. Thus, you cannot be sure that the individual in front of you is not an outlier (ie. by definition not part of the pattern). You can, if you have the math skills determine a probability of an individual being part of a well defined set or population but you can never say with certainty that a pattern x applies to an individual y.

  145. kgo says:

    VOR:
    Bruce,

    Actually, as a simple statement of fact, every player is unique. You can identify every “pattern” you wish. You can’t apply those patterns to all individuals because patterns occur within a set or a population and individuals are not sets and not populations. Thus, you cannot be sure that the individual in front of you is not an outlier (ie. by definition not part of the pattern). You can, if you have the math skills determine a probability of an individual being part of a well defined set or population but you can never say with certainty that a pattern x applies to an individual y.

    This!

  146. Chachi says:

    VOR:
    Bruce,

    Actually, as a simple statement of fact, every player is unique. You can identify every “pattern” you wish. You can’t apply those patterns to all individuals because patterns occur within a set or a population and individuals are not sets and not populations. Thus, you cannot be sure that the individual in front of you is not an outlier (ie. by definition not part of the pattern). You can, if you have the math skills determine a probability of an individual being part of a well defined set or population but you can never say with certainty that a pattern x applies to an individual y.

    It’s recently been pointed out to me that I am wrong about everything, but this post has a certain je ne sais quoi about it. I am really nervous about this, but I think I am going to risk saying this is exactly right.

  147. Diablo says:

    VOR:
    Bruce,

    Actually, as a simple statement of fact, every player is unique. You can identify every “pattern” you wish. You can’t apply those patterns to all individuals because patterns occur within a set or a population and individuals are not sets and not populations. Thus, you cannot be sure that the individual in front of you is not an outlier (ie. by definition not part of the pattern). You can, if you have the math skills determine a probability of an individual being part of a well defined set or population but you can never say with certainty that a pattern x applies to an individual y.

    Outstanding post.

  148. npanciroli says:

    JP looks like he’s doing well to me?

  149. spoiler says:

    Sharkies tankin… This game tonight is so frickin huge. Puck drop miles away yet and I’m on pins and needles already. I had forgotten what 2006 felt like.

  150. PhrankLee says:

    I like trying to get JP into the AHL mind set. And I like the idea of toughening him up down there. His tools scream ‘crafty forecheck wizard who is almost never out of position’.

    European hockey does not utilize the dump in very commonly as a offensive strategy.

    Meaning instead of hauling ass toward the corner on a dump in, turning the d man and setting up the retrieval you seek a pass, realize (oh yeah!) its being dumped and then haul ass. That split second is all the difference in the NHL.

    Anyway I was never really sold on Flemming so I am not surprised with his attempts at pounding a square peg into a round hole, routine.

  151. Chachi says:

    npanciroli:
    JP looks like he’s doing well to me?

    Yes, but it is all relative. You need to compare him to the other Europeans picked in the first round who are now thriving back in their home lands. Of the 7 that were picked, here’s the list of 2016 European first round draft picks playing in Europe this season:

  152. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Yes, but it is all relative. You need to compare him to the other Europeans picked in the first round who are now thriving back in their home lands. Of the 7 that were picked, here’s the list of Euro first round draft picks playing in Europe this season:

    So wait and see.

    Got it.

  153. Lowetide says:

    Chachi: Yes, but it is all relative. You need to compare him to the other Europeans picked in the first round who are now thriving back in their home lands. Of the 7 that were picked, here’s the list of Euro first round draft picks playing in Europe this season:

    Haha. Itry never to get involved in these quarrels, but this post is a hilarious wrap on the proceedings. Well done.

  154. Professor Q says:

    And one must also remember that we don’t have the luxury of unlimited transactions.

    That’s also a good reason and maybe incentive to keep JP in B.

  155. russ99 says:

    JP seems to be having a tough go, but he is producing and improving.

    Plus one of the lessons our top prospects seem to never learn below the NHL level is how to deal with adversity. He’ll be a better pro later for going through it now.

  156. Whatif says:

    I have never seen a site where so many claim to be able to predict the future of an eighteen year old prospect. It always makes me think of a statement that LT often makes with regard to the development of D Men — they do not develop in straight lines.

    I wonder how many of todays posters are members of the “Tarot Club”?

  157. Pouzar says:

    Whatif:
    I have never seen a site where so many claim to be able to predict the future of an eighteen year old prospect.

    Yeah that’s what we are doin.

  158. Chachi says:

    Whatif: I wonder how many of todays posters are members of the “Tarot Club”?

    “Tarot Club”? No. “Hair Club For Men”, “S-Club 7” and “Club Z”? Yes.

  159. oilswell says:

    Pouzar: I thought evidence is what we do here. I am not the one discounting either route for the record. When this debate first came about the overwhelming sentiment was the AHL route. I offered up what I thought was evidence to the contrary.

    Kudos for actually collecting data and conducting analysis for insights.

    You may want to look up “survivor bias” on Wikipedia. There is also a list of players you may want to build your interest in: the list of finish players that never made it to North America.

    Just friendly advice. Your argument is weaker unless you can defend against the charge that the survivors all look good but there should have been more good Finish NA players if only the right ones would have come over earlier.

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