STOP BREAKING DOWN

Although we have miles to go before the final list is complete (I will post my final list in early June again, so I can enjoy other lists and rankings without worrying about being biased), today’s update has two things that make it worth (hopefully) the read. First, the regular seasons are mostly complete, and since math is my list there’s very little left to adjust (someone posts a scouting report on a forward with more speed than previously reported, that kind of thing) we are approaching final final. Second: I write a little more about the top players this time.

THE TOP 93, 2017

  1. (1) RC Nolan Patrick, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). A complete talent but not an elite one. He will go No. 1 overall (probably) but his NHLE (31) suggests we are looking at a player who will fall shy of elite offensively.
  2. (2) L Nico Hischier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). A more dynamic offensive player than Patrick, and a safer one than Pettersson, he may go No. 1. His regular season NHLE is 32, just slightly superior to Patrick (but they are basically tied).
  3. (5) L Elias Pettersson, Timra (Swe-1). I have waited all winter and into spring and no other player in this year’s draft has been able to establish the same resume. His NHLE is 63, his skating and strength get lower marks because he sprouted quickly and his body is just now catching up. I have him higher than any service I have seen, but this might be the best player in the draft and is surely worth a lottery pick. Don’t be surprised if he is No. 1 on my final list.
  4. (3) R Owen Tippett, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Part of me thinks he should be ranked No. 1 because he covers three important categories (size, speed, sniper). His NHLE (33) is right in line with the top Canadian kids and he plays in the top junior league.
  5. (6) LD Juuso Valimaki, Tri-City Americans (WHL). I’m confident he is the right choice as No. 1 D, but Liljegren may turn out to be the better player down the line. A big two-way D, smart, creative and his NHLE (23) is very good (better, by a little, than last year’s top group).
  6. (4) RD Timothy Liljegren, Rogle (Swe Jr). He is a mobile 2-way D and the Swedish assist police may be robbing him of some boxcars. I suspect he will go much higher than this, possibly as high as No. 2 overall His NHLE (13) isn’t promising but that is a reflection of the league he plays in.
  7. (8) LC Casey Mittelstadt, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Mittelstadt is ranked ahead of a few forwards who probably have more skill, but this is a draft that appears to be shy of speed. Scouting reports suggest he has speed and skill, and NHLE (30) puts him in this range.
  8. (9) RC Cody Glass, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Complete skill set, the buzz is intensifying on him because his scoring (NHLE: 30) and his range of skills approach the top levels of this draft. A team getting him at No. 9 may be more secure in their pick than a team choosing a more highly regarded player who has suffered injuries during the season. A nice player.
  9. (7) RC Nick Suzuki, Owen Sound Attack (OHL).  The reports I have read suggest he has skill and creativity. Perhaps a little one dimensional and for that I have him outside the top five overall despite a handsome NHLE (39). Something tells me he goes lower because he is not a burner, but math adores him.
  10. (17) RD Cale Makar, Brooks Bandits (AJHL). As is the case with Liljegren, the NHLE probably doesn’t give us the complete view of this player. Scouting report says he is a fast player with exceptional puck-moving acumen. NHLE (17) doesn’t warrant this ranking, but he is in the same range offensively as Dante Fabbro a year ago.
  11. (10) RC Gabriel Vilardi, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Creative C with size, he gets knocked a little down my list due to speed, but the guys who know tell me it isn’t a major issue. My bet is he goes top 5 overall, or close, as his NHLE (33) is damned good.
  12. (13) R Kailer Yamamoto, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart, elusive, offensive. Lacks top gear. 34
  13. (11) L Eeli Tolvanen, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Plus skater, NHL shot and release. 23
  14. (15) RC Robert Thomas, London Knights (OHL). Speedy forward, creative. 26
  15. (12) C Mason Shaw, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Small skill C, terrific skills. 29
  16. (14) C Michael Rasmussem, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Big C, physical, good skater. 24
  17. (16) LD Nicholas Hague, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Rangy, aggressive, emerging offense. 19
  18. (18) LC Lias Andersson, Linkoping (SHL). Throwback 2-way C, aggressive, quick. 5.11, 200. 22
  19. (19) R Kole Lind, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Speedy W with skill. Good Oil option. 28
  20. (21) RD Conor Timmins, SSE Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, reads plays well, excellent passer. 24
  21. (20) R Klim Kostin, Balashikha (MHL). Giant winger, good offense. Injured.
  22. (25) L Kristian Vesalainen, Frolunda (SHL). Big W, skilled, strong, can play L or R.
  23. (22) L Nikita Popugaev, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Big, good skater, plus shot, passer.
  24. (23) R Martin Necas, Brno (Czech). High speed skill W, just 5.11.
  25. (27) L Matthew Strome, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Strong 2-way W, offensive potential.
  26. (24) RC Morgan Geekie, Tri-City Americans (WHL). C w/2-way rep and emerging offense.
  27. (26) R Aleksi Heponiemi, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Cerebral W with skill, anticipation.
  28. (28) RD Cal Foote, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Huge D, awkward skater, good passer, tough.
  29. (29) RC Ivan Lodnia, Erie Otters (OHL). Small skill C, great skater.
  30. (40) LC Alexei Lipanov, Dyanmo Balashikha (VHL). Simon Boisvert loves his skill.
  31. (31) LD Miro Heiskanen, HIFK (Sm-Liiga). Puck-mover, excellent vision and speed.
  32. (30) R Nicholas Henry, Regina Pats (WHL). Emerging scorer. Not fast.
  33. (33) LC Jaret-Anderson Dolan, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Small, very quick skater and plus skill.
  34. (34) LD Uro Vaakanainen, JYP (Sm-Liiga). Fast two-way blue with a good shot.
  35. (36) G Jake Oettinger, Boston University (NCAA). 35gp, 2.11 .927. Fabulous numbers.
  36. (32) G Mike DiPietro, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). 51gp, 2.35 .917.
  37. (35) L Isaac Ratcliffe, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big winger, great skater, some skill.
  38. (37) LC Evan Barratt, USNDTP (USHL). Small finesse center with substantial skills.
  39. (39) LC Ryan Poehling, St. Cloude State (NCAA). Big skill C with an offensive reputation.
  40. (41) RC Joni Ikonen, Frolunda (Swe SuperElite). Small skill center with good speed.
  41. (38) LC Jake Leschyshyn, Regina Pats (WHL). Quality two-way C.
  42. (42) LD Noel Hoefenmeyer, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Fairly complete defender, good D and some offense.
  43. (45) LC Shane Bowers, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Impressive two-way C, plus skill.
  44. (43) LC Morgan Frost, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, skilled, and emerging.
  45. (44) RD Henri Jokiharju, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Smooth skating Finn OD, needs defensive work.
  46. (46) R Stelio Mattheos, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Excellent skater, heavy shot.
  47. (NR) LD Jack Rathbone, Dexter School (USHS). A bullet on skates, very skilled.
  48. (47) L Alex Formenton, London Knights (OHL). An absolute burner, has some skill.
  49. (49) R Adam Ruzicka, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Big (6.04, 202) forward who plays intelligent game.
  50. (48) LC Joshua Norris, USNDTP (USHL). Two-way C showing good offense.
  51. (51) RD Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL). Two-way D, some nice boxcars.
  52. (53) L Ostap Safin, Sparta Praha (Cze). Big forward, good skater, has plus skills. Nice range.
  53. (52) RC Alexander Chmelevski, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Impressive skills, outststanding TP game.
  54. (54) LC Marcus Davidsson, Djurgardens (SHL). Two-way center has some offense, nice range of skills.
  55. (51) RD Kale Fleury, Kootenay Ice (WHL). Fascinating prospect. Haydn’s brother. Range of skills.
  56. (55) L Zach Gallant, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Fast skater, intelligent player, boxcars moving.
  57. (NR) RC Jack Studnicka, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Range of skills, he is posting quality offense. Not much buzz.
  58. (58) R Lukas Elvenes, Rogle (SuperElite). Highly skilled winger, terrific hands.
  59. (56) L Mackenzie Entwistle, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Big winger, who can skate, check, some skill.
  60. (57) RD Artyom Minulin, Swfit Current Broncos (WHL). Big defender with emerging skills.
  61. (59) L Maxime Comtois, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Skilled, good size, skating average.
  62. (65) RD Ian Mitchell, Spruce Grove Saints (AJHL). Undersized, mobile two-way defender.
  63. (60) RD Eemeli Rasanen, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Giant defender with skill, mobility.
  64. (62) C Jesper Boqvist, Brynas (SHL). Average size, good speed and skill.
  65. (63) RC Scott Reedy, USNDTP (USHL). Center with speed, range of skills, dynamic.
  66. (61) LD Patrick Brannstrom, HV71 (SHL). Undersized skill defender, outstanding skater.
  67. (NR) L Jonah Gadjovich, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Emerging PF, 40-goal man. Average speed.
  68. (NR) LD Max Gildon, USNDTP (USHL). Size, speed, skill. Inconsistent or he would be higher.
  69. (64) L Jacob Tortora, USNDTP (USHL). He is a burner and he is skilled and he is small.
  70. (67) G Keith Petruzzeli, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). An actual giant goalie. Luedeke is on him.
  71. (NR) C Kevin Hancock, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Draft re-entry having a fine offensive season.
  72. (68) RD Josh Brook, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Mobile, dependable, emerging. Could be a find.
  73. (69) G Daniil Tarasov, Ufa (MHL). Tall thin goalie impressed at U18s.
  74. (71) LD Dylan Samberg, Hermantown High (USHS). Big (6.03, 190) mobile blue. Offense a mystery.
  75. (NR) R Emil Oksanen, Espoo (Mestis). Skilled winger, great shot, he can scoot.
  76. (70) RC Nathan Schnarr, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big center with speed, a little shy offensively.
  77. (72) L Jason Robertson, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Big winger with a good shot. Speed hurts him.
  78. (73) LC Jordy Bellerive, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Undersized, nifty and aggressive F with skill.
  79. (74) LD Robin Salo, Sport Vaasa (SML). Two-way defender, mature.
  80. (75) LD Cameron Crotty, Brockville Braves (CCHL). Intelligent two-way defender, great passer.
  81. (NR) RD Dylan Coghlan, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Two-way defender is a good skater, spiking offensively.
  82. (76) LC Antoine Morand, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Very small, very skilled.
  83. (NR) LD Clayton Phillips, Fargo Force (USHL). Undersized OD, speed, great shot. Draft and follow.
  84. (79) L Pavel Koltygin, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL). Two-way winger.
  85. (80) RC Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). 1998 born, too much skill to pass on
  86. (81) G Olle Eriksson Ek, Farjestads (SuperElite). Big goalie with a good track record.
  87. (NR) L Ryan Hughes, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Damn incredible line: 5.08, July 1999, 55 pts/65 games.
  88. (66) L Grant Mismash, USNDTP (USHL). Physical winger with some skill.
  89. (82) LC Austen Keating, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Offensive center, more consistent this season.
  90. (NR) LC Ben Jones, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). I think he might be a sleeper. Playmaker.
  91. (84) RC Greg Meireles, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Smaller forward, speedy, responsible.
  92. (85) W Jonas Rondberg, Vaxjo (Swe Jrs). Smart offensive winger with plus skills, lacks top end finish.
  93. (NR) L Ivan Kosorenkov, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Undersized Russian has 33 goals on hard work in tough spots.

MY THANKS AND RULES

  • I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. Christian Roatis has my current conversation calculator here.
  • Lack of speed gets punished in these rankings, and so do defensive defensemen.
  • My list list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top.
  • Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a checking future. I think teams spend a lot of first-round picks on future checkers.
  • My list does not attempt in any way to predict the draft (BMs does it very well) and does not take his list into account.
  • Craig Button’s list has high value for me, I like the fact he has the courage of his convictions. My list does not factor in Button’s list.
  • I pay attention to Red Line Report, Corey Pronman, Kirk Luedeke (also Red Line), McKeen’s Steve Kournianos and an getting into Grant McCagg’s new site as well. I do not copy their rankings (this should be fairly obvious if you look at their rankings) and don’t actively pursue their rankings until early June, when Red Line is released and my list is completed.
  • Mark Edwards Black Book is a brilliant reference. His release last year has been very useful for this year’s draft.
  • Some of those sources may seem obscure—Brock Otten, Cody Nickolet, Adam Sherren—but are invaluable. Nickolet is no longer available to me but I include him because he’s very good and may one day return. 🙂
  • Scott Wheeler delivers great information in this area. Tom Hunter, too.
  • My list is not designed to compete with, or copy any of the sources mentioned above. Organizations like Red Line, ISS, McKeens, Future Considerations and others employ actual scouts who observe, evaluate and project.

THE OILERS IN THE 2017 DRAFT

  • First Round: No. 22 overall
  • Third Round: No. 79 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overall
  • Fifth Round: No. 128 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overall
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overall
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall

MOCK DRAFT (FIFTH EDITION)

  • First Round: No. 22 overall.  L Matthew Strome, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Strong 2-way W, offensive potential. His NHLE (26) suggests he could be useful as a complementary player on a skill line. Reports have him as a shooter more than passer and he will bull his way to the net. In the range at No. 22 and a nice fit for Edmonton.
  • Third Round: No. 79 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov). R Emil Oksanen, Espoo (Mestis). Skilled winger, great shot, he can scoot. He is a skill winger with a plus shot, and has improved his performance two seasons in a row. Power-play asset, he is one dimensional at this time.
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall. RC Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). I have decided the Oilers are going to draft him, but will probably see him as a Flame for a decade at the old folks home. He has a Brodziak back story (passing through drafts) but would be a welcome addition to the prospect pool.
  • Fourth Round: No. 115 overall. RD Tommy Miller, USNDTP (USHL). He is 6.02, 176, good speed, two-way defender.
  • Fifth Round: No. 128 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen). L Joel Teasdale, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL). Impressive season, smart and skilled, good speed.
  • Fifth Round: No. 146 overall. G Matt Villalta, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Rookie with a .918 SP. A June 1999, so kind of a draft and follow.
  • Sixth Round: No. 177 overallRC Brett Davis, Kootenay Ice (WHL). Good size, impressive offense for a June 1999.
  • Seventh Round: No. 208 overall. L Michal Stinil, Springfield Jrs (USHL Pr). 5.10, 182 and impressive offense at this level. He is a 1999 so has room to grow.

 

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45 Responses to "STOP BREAKING DOWN"

  1. speeds says:

    Robertson is pretty young for the draft, decent size, and a lot of offense (especially relative to his team) for a player to be that far down a list like yours, which typically leans more towards numbers than maybe some others.

    Is his skating perceived as that poor, and/or not particularly improvable?

  2. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Robertson is pretty young for the draft, decent size, and a lot of offense (especially relative to his team) for a player to be that far down a list like yours, which typically leans more towards numbers than maybe some others.

    Is his skating perceived as that poor, and/or not particularly improvable?

    Based on what I’ve read he is dynamite in close but the foot speed is going to be a legit concern. Brock Otten doesn’t think it’s a massive issue, he wrote this midseason:

    Really like this player, even if he has some short comings. Size and skill from the wing. His skating could use some work, but I think it has also been overblown a bit. His top speed isn’t bad. It’s his start ups that are a bit sluggish. Once he gets going though, he can be really tough to stop because he protects the puck really well. I really like his aggressiveness in driving the net and his hands in close. Definitely a potential goal scorer at the next level. His two-way play could become a bit more consistent, as could his play without the puck (in general), but I think that as his skating improves, he will improve in this area. Overall, I just like his potential to develop into a pro style power winger who can play a solid north/south game.

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/12/midseason-top-50-for-2017-nhl-entry.html

    He ranked him No. 16 among OHL kids, I have him No. 23 among OHL prospects. I think it will hurt his draft number, but 42 goals are 42 goals.

  3. OF17 says:

    I don’t know much of anything about this draft (nice change of pace), but I certainly like the way your mock Oilers picks look, LT.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Interesting

    (31) LD Miro Heiskanen, HIFK (Sm-Liiga).

    Grant McCagg has him #4

    Consensus has him at No. 13
    http://nhlnumbers.com/2017/3/23/2017-consolidated-draft-rankings-march

  5. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/draft/2017/03/26/nhl-draft-2017-casey-mittelstadt-whos-got-finishing-kick/99666330/

    FWIW, sounds like Redline has him in their overall top 10, nevermind top 10 in the OHL.

    Yes. I wish we could see his TOI.

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    You guys know something? I have absolutely no idea about the prospects this year and i am cherishing my ignorance. Will Nolan Patrick be #1? Who knows. Who cares? We’re not picking him.

  7. Ducey says:

    Weird not having any clue who will be there at 20 something. In the last bunch of years we would have it down to two or three guys. Now, who knows.

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Oil need a Konecny/Aho/Fabbri/Mantha with their 1st pick this year, a Pastrnak is asking too much but someone who can play 2nd line in a few years when contracts are getting stingey would be perfect.

    Really too bad they don’t have Ek Eriksson+ whoever bubbling under instead of Reinhart reserving #7D next year

  9. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Oil need a Konecny/Aho/Fabbri/Mantha with their 1st pick this year, a Pastrnak is asking too much but someone who can play 2nd line in a few years when contracts are getting stingey would be perfect.

    Really too bad they don’t have Ek Eriksson+ whoever bubbling under instead of Reinhart reserving #7D next year

    The lack of forwards bubbling under in the system is a real concern for sure. I do think adding Caggiula and maybe Foo helps, but Eriksson Ek would be a fantastic player to add to this prospect list.

  10. StixMalone says:

    I used to look forward to this mock draft every year albeit was always in December. Now it’s not as important anymore. Funny how a good turnaround works wonders!….

  11. Bulging Twine says:

    Is slashing still a penalty? The refs aren’t calling it anymore. It’s getting bad out there.
    How many broken fingers from slashes are we going to see in the playoffs as players target hands early in series?

  12. Scungilli says:

    20. (21) RD Conor Timmins, SSE Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, reads plays well, excellent passer. 24

    Perfect for the Oilers.

  13. Diablo says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Is slashing still a penalty?The refs aren’t calling it anymore.It’s getting bad out there.
    How many broken fingers from slashes are we going to see in the playoffs as players target hands early in series?

    The refs are totally garbage – more worried about being the bad guy and getting the wrath of the fans than doing their jobs and protecting the players.

    And the league/Bettman doesn’t seem to care.

  14. SumOil says:

    Is anyone else worried that oilers aren’t dominating possession anymore? We have been a sub 50% team in most games recently and that even applies to the Mcdavid line

  15. Westchester Oil says:

    LT – can you confirm if the Oilers owe the Bruins their second round pick or can it be any second round pick? For example, is there any reason why the Oilers couldn’t trade their 53rd pick in the 2nd round to say, the Capitals for their 62nd pick and a 5th or 6th rounder? Then the Oilers could give the Bruins the 62nd pick and retain an extra late round pick.

  16. --hudson-- says:

    Hey LT,

    Do you think there’s value in drafting Parker Foo? (Spencer’s younger brother)

    He’s 6’1″ 170lbs and his boxcars in his final AJHL are a close match to Spencer. If he’s projected the same as his brother it saves a costly contract in the future for a good local prospect

  17. doritogrande says:

    Oil need a Konecny/Aho/Fabbri/Mantha with their 1st pick this year, a Pastrnak is asking too much but someone who can play 2nd line in a few years when contracts are getting stingey would be perfect.

    I saw Vilardi reaaaalll good this afternoon in the last minute of the Knights/Spitfires game. Took three draws, won three draws cleanly. Speed may be an issue, but it may allow him to drop into our laps also.

    If he’s not available, Lind please and thanks.

  18. Scungilli says:

    Nash!

  19. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! I don’t share some posters concerns with the lack of perceived Depth at forward:

    1) McDavid/Drai/Ebs(or his replacement)/Lucic/RNH (or his replacement)/Maroon : this is our top-6 for the next 5 years
    2) Pool-party, maybe, could crack this in next few years(earn it son)
    3) Sleppy/Cags/Pak all have different bottom-6 strengths and weaknesses

    – So we’ve got a bona-fide top-6 roster, one guy we hope could crack this maybe, and bottom-6 guys. Next year we will draft another guy who is 3 years out.

    – Good teams just don’t have multiple top-6 ready-to-go prospects, blocked by bona-fide NHL players. We are one of those teams now.

    – I agree with some posters: it’s a relief to not have emotional investment committed to top of draft!

  20. Lowetide says:

    SumOil:
    Is anyone else worried that oilers aren’t dominatingpossession anymore? We have been a sub 50% team in most games recently and that even applies to the Mcdavid line

    Sunil Agnihotri has been hammering onthat for some time, at SuperFan/Copper and Blue and on the Lowdown. He will be on tomorrow to discuss.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Westchester Oil:
    LT – can you confirm if the Oilers owe the Bruins their second round pick or can it be any second round pick? For example, is there any reason why the Oilers couldn’t trade their 53rd pick in the 2nd round to say, the Capitals for their 62nd pick and a 5th or 6th rounder? Then the Oilers could give the Bruins the 62nd pick and retain an extra late round pick.

    Oilers absolutely owe their own pick to Boston. I expect that transaction is already entered for draft day.

  22. Lowetide says:

    –hudson–:
    Hey LT,

    Do you think there’s value in drafting Parker Foo? (Spencer’s younger brother)

    He’s 6’1″ 170lbs and his boxcars in his final AJHL are a close match to Spencer.If he’s projected the same as his brother it saves a costly contract in the future for a good local prospect

    That’s a brilliant idea.

  23. Todd Macallan says:

    –hudson–,

    Not to mention the added benefit of impacting his older brother’s decision to possibly sign here, assuming he returns to school for his senior year to play with his bro.

  24. speeds says:

    Lowetide: Yes. I wish we could see his TOI.

    Would be nice to have for everyone.

    Here’s his team:

    http://ontariohockeyleague.com/stats/team_players/56/2

    That’s a pretty huge gap between him and the rest of the team. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got more TOI than some other draft eligible players, but would be hard to argue he’s riding any older teammates coat tails .

  25. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Oilers scoring this year vs. last year

    When you see On Ice vs Off Ice those are goals in games in which McDavid played.If they happened when McDavid was injured they are “Not playing”

    5v5

    Last year:
    97 On ice 3.44 GF/60 (36 goals)
    97 Off ice 1.57GF/60 (38 goals)
    97 Not playing 1.94 GF/60 (58 goals)

    97 Off ice and Not playing combined – 1.74 GF/60 (96 goals)

    This year:
    97 On ice 3.53 GF/60 (70 goals)
    97 Off ice 1.99 GF/60 (80 goals)
    97 Not playing – 0

    TOI
    Last year:
    97 On Ice 627min
    97 Off Ice 1450min
    97 Not playing 1792

    This year:
    97 On Ice 1191min
    97 Off Ice 2410min
    97 Not playing 0

    So what does this tell us?

    Well, if we go back and give McDavid the same GF/60 ON/OFF but assume this year’s total TOI we see:

    McDavid On 3.44 GF/60 (68 goals)
    McDavid Off 1.74 GF/60 (70 goals)

    So using last year’s goal rates but 97’s TOI ON/OFF this year the Oilers are 2 goals worse with Connor (lol rookie last year) on ice and 10 goals better when he’s off the ice this year over last.

    That’s 10 goals in 75 games so 0.133 5v5 goal/game.

    10 goals is nothing to sneeze at, but its not like the Oilers are all of the sudden a 5v5 juggernaut compared to last year.

    As far as 5v5 goes, there is a very slight increase in scoring from non-97’s, but most of the gain is 97 playing every game.

    Now, 5v4

    Last year:
    97 On ice 7.72 GF/60 (17 goals)
    97 Off ice 4.63 GF/60 (9 goals)
    97 Not playing 4.47 GF/60 (14 goals)

    97 Off ice and Not playing combined – 4.50 GF/60 (23 goals)

    This year:
    97 On ice 8.44 GF/60 (28 goals)
    97 Off ice 5.02 GF/60 (14 goals)
    97 Not playing – 0

    TOI
    Last year:
    97 On Ice 132min
    97 Off Ice 116min
    97 Not playing 188

    This year:
    97 On Ice 199min
    97 Off Ice 165min
    97 Not playing 0

    So what does this tell us?

    Well, if we go back and give McDavid the same GF/60 ON/OFF but assume this year’s total TOI we see:

    McDavid On 7.72 GF/60 (26 goals)
    McDavid Off 4.63 GF/60 (13 goals)

    So using last year’s goal rates but 97’s TOI ON/OFF this year the Oilers are 2 goals better with Connor and 1 goal betterwhen he’s off the ice this year over last.

    That’s1 non- Connor goal in 75 games so 0.013 5v4 goal/game.

    Summary

    If we give McDavid ON/OFF the same rates as last year but this year’s TOI the Oilers are 11 goals better this year compared to last when McDavid is not playing

    If we pro-rate last year’s goals/game at the 75 game mark they would have had 182 goals.This year at the 75 game mark they have 218.

    They are 36 goals better.

    11 of that is due to the team.
    25 of that is due to 97 playing every game.

    Good to see an increase in “97 OFF” for sure, but 97’s health is everything.

    This comment was too good to leave in the last post to get lost without some follow up.

    I was doing something this afternoon along the same lines but comparing the team with McDavid ON/OFF the ice against other teams top scorers ON/OFF the ice.

    Wanted to see how this team compared with McDavid off the ice compared to other teams top scorers off the ice.

    So what I did was take the the top scorer from every team and I looked at GF% with them ON the ice GF% with them off. GF% is 5 on 5.

    GF% TEAM TOPSCORER OGF%
    53.75 ANA RYAN.GETZLAF 50
    44.05 ARI RADIM.VRBATA 43.17
    54.08 BOS BRAD.MARCHAND 44.72
    46.58 BUF JACK.EICHEL 46.03
    50 CAR JEFF.SKINNER 42.58
    60 CBJ CAM.ATKINSON 55.45
    50.67 CGY JOHNNY.GAUDREAU 48.25
    52.68 CHI PATRICK.KANE 55.13
    43.88 COL NATHAN.MACKINNON 33.14
    51.04 DAL TYLER.SEGUIN 50.87
    60.42 DET HENRIK.ZETTERBERG 41.28
    60.87 EDM CONNOR.MCDAVID 49.08************************
    48.19 FLA VINCENT.TROCHECK 42.94
    52.56 L.A JEFF.CARTER 45.95
    58.89 MIN MIKAEL.GRANLUND 53.47
    55.81 MTL MAX.PACIORETTY 53.7
    54.41 N.J TAYLOR.HALL 41.86
    57.14 NSH RYAN.JOHANSEN 51.35
    54.29 NYI JOHN.TAVARES 48.76
    56.63 NYR MATS.ZUCCARELLO 50.73
    50.93 OTT ERIK.KARLSSON 46.27
    37.63 PHI JAKUB.VORACEK 48
    59.38 PIT SIDNEY.CROSBY 57.69
    58.97 S.J BRENT.BURNS 47.86
    56.41 STL VLADIMIR.TARASENKO 50.58
    60.24 T.B NIKITA.KUCHEROV 43.28
    53.01 TOR AUSTON.MATTHEWS 51.71
    55.41 VAN BO.HORVAT 42.2
    53.98 WPG MARK.SCHEIFELE 44.79
    61.45 WSH NICKLAS.BACKSTROM 63.95

    I found that the GF% for when a teams top scorer is on the ice averages 53.78%
    When the top scorer is off the ice the GF% averages 48.4%

    -With McDavid on the ice, Oilers are elite.
    -With McDavid off the ice, the Oilers are a smidge above average.

    Doing the same exercise with shot share we see that
    -With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers have a CF% of 52.71% ( average for top scorers ON 51.77%)
    -With McDavid OFF the ice, the Oilers have a CF% of 48.2% ( average for top scorers OFF 49.1%)

    I have not looked to see how we compare to last years team, but Talbot has been the biggest difference in goals against going down so I would expect a pretty good jump when looking at GF%.

    When I look at all this along with very good to elite goaltending by Talbot, this team is elite with McDavid on the ice. Average when he is not on the ice.

  26. Glass says:

    Could McDavid be a finalist for the Selke trophy? I don’t know exactly how players are chosen for it, but he is leading the point race with the best +/- in the top 25 players. +/- is all I personally have to go off lol, and I certainly understand it’s not the end all be all for choosing the finalists.

  27. npanciroli says:

    frjohnk,

    What impresses me about our numbers are these are with really crummy seasons from a few key players.

  28. frjohnk says:

    frjohnk,

    I took this a bit further and looked at the 16 teams that will likely make the playoffs and did the same
    exercise. Top scorer GF% and CF% ON the ice/OFF the ice ( 5 on 5)

    Here is CF% with top scorer ON the ice and OCF% is when top scorer is OFF the ice with playoff teams

    CF% Team OCF%
    50.52 TOR 50.01
    60.57 BOS 52.96
    53.37 S.J 49.27
    48.66 CBJ 50.51
    52.71 EDM 48.2*************************
    49.32 OTT 47.62
    50.96 CGY 50.94
    51.35 NYR 46.58
    54.3 MTL 51.38
    48.62 MIN 48.82
    50.86 WSH 52.23
    51.95 CHI 49.83
    50.3 ANA 49.53
    56.87 NSH 49.03
    54.1 PIT 49.49
    52.62 STL 49.26
    52.31AVG 49.73

    -With McDavid ON the ice, Oilers are about league average compared to other playoff teams when their top scorer is ON the ice when looking at shot share
    -With McDavid OFF the ice, Oilers are below league average when compared to other playoff teams when their top scorer is OFF the ice when looking at shot share

    Here is GF%, same idea

    GF% Team OGF%
    53.01 TOR 51.71
    54.08 BOS 44.72
    58.97 S.J 47.86
    60 CBJ 55.45
    60.87 EDM 49.08******************
    50.93 OTT 46.27
    50.67 CGY 48.25
    56.63 NYR 50.73
    55.81 MTL 53.7
    58.89 MIN 53.47
    61.45 WSH 63.95
    52.68 CHI 55.13
    53.75 ANA 50
    57.14 NSH 51.35
    59.38 PIT 57.69
    56.41 STL 50.58
    56.29 AVG 51.87

    -With McDavid ON the ice, Oilers are well above league average compared to other playoff teams when their top scorer is ON the ice when looking at goal share
    -With McDavid OFF the ice, Oilers are below league average when compared to other playoff teams when their top scorer is OFF the ice when looking at goal share

  29. frjohnk says:

    npanciroli:
    frjohnk,

    What impresses me about our numbers are these are with really crummy seasons from a few key players.

    Definitely agree with that.

    But the OFF numbers have been helped in regards to the fact we have had for the most part been very healthy except for a few 4th liners and 3rd pairing Dmen. And we have had enough depth that we have not had to ice complete pairings or lines of AHL players when we have had those injuries.

  30. OF17 says:

    frjohnk,

    Nice work. Makes me hopeful the plan is to keep Drai at 2C next year, since that should help the OFF numbers. Knowing McDavid, he probably won’t even skip a beat either.

  31. npanciroli says:

    OF17,

    It’s really nice, even with no additions next year and depending on expansion we could run:

    Maroon McDavid Eberle
    Lucic Draisaitl Puljujärvi
    Pouliot RNH Kassian
    Cagguila Letestu Slepyshev

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Benning
    Nurse Fayne/Reinhart

    Which is pretty impressive.

  32. Georges says:

    frjohnk,

    I’m assuming you’re using entire season numbers.

    I think the team is very different with the new 3rd line.

    Using corsica, since Mar. 1 (post trade deadline):

    GF%
    CMD On 62.5
    CMD Off 58.3

    CF%
    CMD On 45.8
    CMD Off 47.4

    So, depending on your priorities, the team is much better or a little bit worse since Mar. 1 and CMD is a little bit better or a whole lot worse.

    I feel very Zen on this.

  33. Ari says:

    frjohnk,

    Nice work Frjohnk!

    Strange that you posted this because I was looking this up just a couple of hours ago, while checking up on my favourite former Oiler.

    Hall’s “GF%rel” is only behind that of Zetterberg, Kucherov and Horvat. Not bad at all.

  34. OF17 says:

    npanciroli:
    OF17,

    It’s really nice, even with no additions next year and depending on expansion we could run:

    Maroon McDavid Eberle
    Lucic Draisaitl Puljujärvi
    Pouliot RNH Kassian
    Cagguila Letestu Slepyshev

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Benning
    Nurse Fayne/Reinhart

    Which is pretty impressive.

    Pretty crazy that our only hole is 2RD. It wasn’t that long ago that we only had one legit defenseman! And here we are with a team that’s one legit player short of a full pack.

  35. OF17 says:

    As an aside, I find myself saying “we” rather than “the Oilers” a lot more these days. The emotional, visceral attachment is coming back after years of rational detachment being a coping mechanism. It’s both nice and strange.

  36. Georges says:

    scungilli,

    In response to your comment from the morning thread, using an average in the first case would mask the low correlations in the past two seasons. CF% is useful to the extent that it helps us explain GF%, what we really care about. The lower correlations in the past two seasons show that CF% isn’t as useful for explaining GF% now as it’s been in the past. And, even in the past, the strength of that relationship wasn’t that great.

    I’ve said before that this decoupling could be expected because, in a sense, the bloggers won. Teams are all focused on CF% now (whatever they say) and they’re a lot closer to each other on that metric than they’ve been in previous seasons. I’m guessing no coach or GM wants to get called out on their team’s CF% by the local bloggers. Coaches who didn’t grasp or emphasize the importance of possession are out of the league or on their way out of the league. And they’re going to have a hard time getting back into the league. The math of badly losing the shot battle is stacked against them.

  37. frjohnk says:

    Georges:
    frjohnk,

    I’m assuming you’re using entire season numbers.

    I think the team is very different with the new 3rd line.

    Using corsica, since Mar. 1 (post trade deadline):

    GF%
    CMD On 62.5
    CMD Off 58.3

    CF%
    CMD On 45.8
    CMD Off 47.4

    So, depending on your priorities, the team is much better or a little bit worse since Mar. 1 and CMD is a little bit better or a whole lot worse.

    I feel very Zen on this.

    Wow. Looks like we are riding a sky high PDO since March 1st.

    PDO
    McDavid ON 107
    McDavid OFF 102

    It would be nice to face a team as bad as the Avs or the Stars are defensively ( we scored 11 goals in 2 games against Avs, 7 against Stars in March, also we scored 7 against Bruins but they are not as bad as the other two) in the playoffs, but that wont happen.

    While there are probably score effects on the shot share since the trade deadline, those numbers dont look nice.

    With that said, IF the team and its players can play to their potential, which would include
    -McDavid being McDavid
    -Talbot is elite
    -staying healthy
    -players who have face planted for parts of the year ( EBERLE, Nuge, Lucic, Pouliot) play at or close to their ceiling
    -3rd and 4th lines dont get their teeth kicked in and chip in some occasional offense
    -PK not being a bottom feeder
    -PP keeps humming along

    we “could” enter into the discussion of winning a round or two.

    McDavid basically pulls this team from average to towards elite. Overall we are closer to average than elite, but thats OK as there are only a few teams that are elite.

  38. frjohnk says:

    Ari:
    frjohnk,

    Nice work Frjohnk!

    Strange that you posted this because I was looking this up just a couple of hours ago, while checking up on my favourite former Oiler.

    Hall’s “GF%rel” is only behind that of Zetterberg, Kucherov and Horvat.Not bad at all.

    Its always the same shit with Hall

    CF% Team Player OCF%
    52.35 N.J TAYLOR.HALL 44.46

    GF% Team Player OGF%
    54.41 N.J TAYLOR.HALL 41.86

    Year after year its always like this

    Until he learns how to increase goal scoring for his team while he is not on the ice, or at least decrease goal scoring when he is not on the ice, Hall will always play on a shitty team.

    Ridiculous, 1st overall pick and what 7th year in the league, he should be good enough by now to be able to score/save goals when he is on the bench.

  39. Georges says:

    frjohnk: Wow.Looks like we are riding a sky high PDO since March 1st.

    PDO
    McDavid ON 107
    McDavid OFF 102

    It would be nice to face a team as bad as the Avs or the Stars are defensively ( we scored 11 goals in 2 games against Avs, 7 against Stars in March) in the playoffs, but that wont happen.

    While there are probably score effects on the shot share since the trade deadline, those numbers dont look nice.

    With that said, IF the team and its players can play to their potential, which would include
    -McDavid being McDavid
    -Talbot is elite
    -staying healthy
    -players who have face planted for parts of the year ( EBERLE, Nuge, Lucic, Pouliot) play at or close to their ceiling
    -3rd and 4th lines dont get their teeth kicked in and chip in some occasional offense
    -PK not being a bottom feeder
    -PP keeps humming along

    we “could” enter into the discussion of winning a round or two.

    McDavid basically pulls this team from average to towards elite.Overall we are closer to average than elite, but thats OK as there are only a few teams that are elite.

    Wow, who are we playing in the first round that we need all those things to go right for us to maybe enter into the discussion of winning?

    The team doesn’t consistently outplay opponents. But I think it’s consistently able to outplay opponents. I suppose your reading of the numbers has convinced you of something else about the team’s potential. It’ll be fun to watch. As I said, I’m very Zen on this. I’m not betting against the team, CMD on or CMD off.

    EDIT: Have you looked at the predictive value of regular season metrics for playoff success? Are you discounting the Oilers because what you’re seeing in their regular season results doesn’t bode well for winning even one round? Also, according to your ON/OFF analysis, who are the elite teams? Are any of them in the West?

  40. kooler says:

    Apparently Spencer Foo has always been a big Oiler fan. Would be nice to see a home grown kid.

    https://www.google.ca/amp/www.timesunion.com/tuplus-sports/amp/Q-A-with-Union-hockey-s-Spencer-Foo-10977731.php

  41. The Original JDI says:

    kooler: Would be nice to see a home grown kid.

    Worked for Comrie…

  42. Glass says:

    kooler:
    Apparently Spencer Foo has always been a big Oiler fan. Would be nice to see a home grown kid.

    https://www.google.ca/amp/www.timesunion.com/tuplus-sports/amp/Q-A-with-Union-hockey-s-Spencer-Foo-10977731.php

    Q: Favorite pro hockey team?
    Foo: “Big Edmonton Oilers fan. Always an Oilers fan growing up.”

  43. frjohnk says:

    Georges: Wow, who are we playing in the first round that we need all those things to go right for us to maybe enter into the discussion of winning?

    Now that I run through the teams here and you have questioned me I will agree that I was a bit harsh of my judging of the team. I think the 4 Pacific teams are in the “very good” realm. Nobody elite. So with a hot McDavid and Talbot, I think I would bet on the Oilers getting out of the Pacific.

    As for elite teams

    In the West,

    -Chicago. One can never count them out of this group. Fantastic top 6 F and top 4 D. Best goalie tandem in the league. Weakness in the 4th line.

    -Until the March face plant, the Wild would be here. They have the best center group in the league. Deep team. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0023312017.html Need to get the wobbles out before the playoffs start

    In the East

    -Washington. They are in a class of their own. Teams like this usually never win the cup.

    -Pittsburgh. 4 river pushers. scoring lines. Defending Cup champs.

    -Columbus? A team that has depth top to bottom and the Vezina winner in goal. But they pick up the Korpse at the deadline, so they get bounced first round.

    Rangers? Scoring lines

    I put Columbus, Rangers and Wild on the bubble of being elite. So for me its Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh that are elite.

    I could be swayed into the “Oilers could win the Cup” group.
    I think I layed out the criteria.

  44. Ari says:

    frjohnk: Its always the same shit with Hall

    CF%TeamPlayerOCF%
    52.35N.JTAYLOR.HALL44.46

    GF%TeamPlayerOGF%
    54.41N.JTAYLOR.HALL41.86

    Year after year its always like this

    Until he learns how to increase goal scoring for his team while he is not on the ice, or at least decrease goal scoring when he is not on the ice, Hall will always play on a shitty team.

    Ridiculous, 1st overall pick and what 7th year in the league, he should be good enough by now to be able to score/save goals when he is on the bench.

    Haha! Well put.

    I agree with your take on the team. Hard to estimate to our playoff success, but anything can happen in 7 games or less.

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