BROKEN ARROW

The Edmonton Oilers rolled through March with workmanlike efficiency. You could argue this is playoff hockey, and March argues it’s working. The criticisms of this team are known and actual, but the formula (McDavid scores, Talbot stops pucks, run out the clock with the lead) is working—for now. This is not a Stanley Cup team, not yet, because the balance and depth have not arrived yet. Those things are for another day, this one should be set aside for enjoyment and reflection. This morning, we can talk about  a 100-point season. Hallelujah!

  • Connor McDavid on Cam Talbot: “It’s the same story every night. They still get their chances but you can always rely on him back there.”

 ROLL AWAY THE STONE, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2016: 8-8-0, goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2017: 9-3-1, goal differential +15
  • Oilers after 77, 2015-16: 30-40-7, goal differential -39
  • Oilers after 77, 2016-17: 43-25-9, goal differential +31
Edmonton has posted nine wins in two different months, January and March. I remain convinced February, and not getting buried during the tough schedule there, was a key to what we are seeing today. There are things we can talk about, like depth and balance, but it’s also true we are seeing a young team mature before our eyes. That’s worth celebrating.

 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Detroit, NY Islanders, Pittsburgh, Montreal (Expected: 2-2-0) (Actual 1-2-1)
  • At home to: Dallas, Boston, Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 3-1-0) (Actual 4-0-0)
  • On the road to: Anaheim, Colorado (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual: 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 3-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-5-1, 15 points in 13 games
  • Final results: 9-3-1, 19 points in 13 games
Once they got back from Montreal, these Oilers set their sights and worked efficiently to reach the goal. Now, we can talk about ridiculous possibilities, like 100 points and Pacific Heights. Crazy talk! And yet, we are here.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera-Russell went 15-18 in 13:30, including 10-10 with McDavid (over 7 minutes). Both defenders made astute defensive plays, went 8-8 against Karlsson-Thornton-Pavelski. Went 7-6 against Hertl-Boedker-Hansen. This is one of their better nights as a pairing in my opinion.
  • Klefbom-Larsson went 14-17 in 13:28 together, this pairing got the Nuge line and went 4-9 with them. Klefbom was mobile and made some astute passes, including the one that led to his assist. He shot the puck a lot. Adam Larsson was effective and aggressive, borderline angry for much of the night. Got into a fight defending his goalie and leveled a Sharks forward behind the net with several effective cross checks. Pairing went 9-10 against Karlsson-Thornton-Pavelski, 4-5 against Hertl-Boedker-Hansen.
  • Nurse-Benning were a tale of two cities. Benning doesn’t look completely right, so races to the puck were noticeable because we aren’t seeing his normal boots. Went 10-18 in 11:15 together, Nurse jumped up successfully with Russell and Larsson at different times. Went 9-3 against Donski-Marleau-Ward, but got caved (Benning was 4-13) against Haley-Tierney-Meier. I like this pairing, but on this night Nurse was the one who really caught my eye. Great speed, driving to the net, picking his spots when jumping into the play. I wonder if we see Gryba on Saturday.
  • Cam Talbot was splendid again, stopping 38 of 40, .950.
  • Numbers via NaturalStatTrick, HockeyStats.ca and NHL.com.

MCDAVID LINE

  • This is the whole story right here. Edmonton’s games often come down to three or four 97 moments that score (and about 10 more that could score). That’s not enough to win Stanley, but clean air for McDavid and Talbot stops could win a series.
  • Leon Draisaitl made about six ridiculous passes in this game, and took a musket to the gutsket from Jumbo Joe. Showed nice speed on his breakaway too.
  • Patrick Maroon will be talking about this season until he’s 102. Who can blame him? Great moment came after his first goal when McDavid kept shaking his head. I bet they put that in the movie.
  • Line went 9-8 against Karlsson-Thornton-Pavelski, 4-7 against Hertl-Boedker-Hansen. The only strong matchup I could find involved 97’s defensive opponent, and he struggled against Vlasic (7-18) and Braun (5-15).
  • Todd McLellan left McDavid out against Vlasic for 56 percent of 97’s icetime, suspect that’s something the Oilers might want to trim for a home playoff game.

NUGE LINE

  • Line went 8-11 on the evening, with just two shots between the three forwards. It isn’t enough and a key to playoff success is this line scoring. The line has had some offensive success in the last 10 games (more later).
  • Lots of verbal about this line, but I think they are looking better in the last dozen or so games. Important not to overreact to one game, and to give the other man his due: San Jose is a substantial team.
  • Line got scored on very early, but recovered from there and battled on a night when they were facing a tough opponent every shift.
  • Went 6-5 against Karlsson-Thornton-Pavelski, 4-1 against Donski-Marleau-Ward.

DD LINE

  • This isn’t going to work in a series against the Sharks. David Desharnais seems to be spending his evenings in the defensive zone trying to occupy the exact area identified as ‘no-man’s land’ and it’s going to cost goals. He’s an NHL player, but he looks betwixt and between on defense, a lot.
  • I like this line but they got fed last night. Went 3-11 against Haley-Tierney-Meier, Edmonton’s personnel is superior (and yes, I know Meier is a highly-touted player). Went 2-8 against Hertl-Boedker-Hansen, that’s a better group but good grief.
  • If McLellan has to find another center for these wings, who is it? Lander?

LETESTU LINE

  • This line should have played more than the 3line, they were having a better evening and it showed.
  • Caggiula rang a shot off the post just before McDavid’s shorthanded goal, and he really does seem to be coming into his own.
  • I’d run this line Saturday for sure.
  • Line went 7-0 with Klefbom-Larsson.
  • Line went 5-2 against Donski-Marleau-Ward, 4-1 against Hertl-Boedker-Hansen, 4-4 against Karlsson-Thornton-Pavelski.

STANDINGS

  • It’s almost impossible to comprehend this season against the backdrop of this time one year ago. The Edmonton Oilers have the best goal differential in the division, the second best record and that could change for the better come Saturday night!

YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Record: 43-25-9 (30-40-7)
  • Points: 95 (67) +28 year over year
  • Goals For after 77 games: 224 (185)
  • Goals Against after 77 games: 193 (224)
  • Goal Differential after 77 games: +31 (-39)
  • Source

From time to time someone will ask me why my numbers don’t line up with NHL.com. I use hockey-reference because they take out shootout goals and give us the best available year over year comparisons. As you can see, these numbers represent amazing progress year over year.

SPENCER FOO

  • NHL scout: “He’s a diligent worker with a top-nine skill set. He’s strong on puck recovery and strong in traffic with quickness and an outstanding compete level.” Source

SCORING LEADERS

I believe Connor McDavid has earned the Hart Trophy this season. Only two Oilers have previously won (Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier) the coveted award, and only 99 won the Art Ross previous to this season. A complete look at Oilers player awards over the years is available here.

Caleb Jones had a massive night for the Portland Winterhawks and could be hanging around awhile in the WHL playoffs. Ethan Bear is putting together an impressive set of boxcars as well, and Ryan Mantha was productive before his club exited the postseason:

  • Ethan Bear: 3gp, 2-5-7
  • Caleb Jones: 4gp, 0-6-6
  • Ryan Mantha: 4gp, 2-2-4

What’s more, Dylan Wells has been lights out for Peterborough (4gp, 2.34 .937) as his Petes got past Mantha’s Niagara Ice Dogs.

ZIYAT PAIGIN

  • Patrick Conway:  Paigin’s contract expires on April 30th of this year, and it will be very interesting to find out whether he gives it a try with Ak Bars for another year, moves to a different KHL team where he will perhaps be a better fit, or tries his luck across the ocean with the Oilers.  We shall see. Source

Based on Bob hints (™) I think we are looking at four (!!!) defenders signed for Bakersfield next season. It sounds like a lot of rookies, but Paigin has pro experience in a good league and that counts for something. Also possible we see one of these fellows spend time in the ECHL, although that sounds like a stretch.

CORSI FOR 5X5/DUETS

  • McDavid-Draisaitl: 53.1
  • McDavid-Maroon: 52.5
  • McDavid-Eberle: 53.6
  • McDavid-Lucic: 55.0
  • Nuge-Eberle: 50.0
  • Nuge-Lucic: 49.0
  • Nuge-Pouliot: 48.4
  • Nuge-Maroon: 54.3
  • Nuge-Kassian: 45.3
  • Draisaitl-Lucic: 52.2
  • Draisaitl-Pouliot: 49.1
  • Draisaitl-Puljujarvi: 52.1
  • Draisaitl-Kassian: 50.8

SCORING, LAST 10 GAMES (FORWARDS)

  1. Connor McDavid 10, 5-11-16
  2. Leon Draisaitl 10, 4-12-16
  3. Patrick Maroon 10, 6-3-9
  4. RNH 10, 3-4-7
  5. Drake Caggiula 8, 2-4-6
  6. Jordan Eberle 10, 2-4-6
  7. Milan Lucic 10, 4-2-6
  8. Zack Kassian 10, 1-3-4
  9. Benoit Pouliot 10, 3-1-4
  10. Mark Letestu 10, 2-1-3
  11. David Desharnais 10, 1-1-2
  12. Anton Slepyshev 6, 1-1-2

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy and fun show as we wrap up a very successful week for the Oilers. At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouth Sports. In the fall, Steve told me the Oilers would make the playoffs. What did he know?
  • Jared Book, Bluebird Banter. Year over year changes to the order and rotation, plus what about the bullpen?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Should the Oilers push for the division title, or rest Talbot and have another look at Jesse Puljujarvi?

Text 10-1260, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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188 Responses to "BROKEN ARROW"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Sekera-Russell went 15-18 in 13:30, including 10-10 with McDavid (over 7 minutes). Both defenders made astute defensive plays, went 8-8 against Karlsson-Thornton-Pavelski. Went 7-6 against Hertl-Boedker-Hansen. This is one of their better nights as a pairing in my opinion.

    Agreed.

    I thought that was one of Russell’s best games.

    Defended well. Turned dangerous sorties into board work.

    Most importantly, he moved the puck up better than I had seen before (by eye, haven’t seen the fancies)

    Didn’t do the “Russell Re-set” much and got the puck moving North quicker than he usually did.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    CHI 28
    MIN 21
    ANA 19
    EDM 18
    SJS 16
    STL 14
    CGY 13-1st wildcard
    NSH 12-2nd wildcard
    ————-
    LAK 3
    WPG 1
    DAL -4
    VAN -7
    ARI -14
    COL -33

    A little distance between 3rd in the Pacific/Central and the wildcard teams now.

    CGY 3 back of SJS with 5 to play and NSH 2 of STL back with 5 to play.

    WC games tonight:

    SJS at CGY – CGY couldn’t lock down LAK the night after they played in EDM, can they do it to a better SJS team?

    CBJ at CHI – This is a clash of Titans. Watch it if you can.

    STL at COL – STL continues their LOL schedule to finish they year.

    LAK at VAN – Doesn’t mean too much for anyone. VAN has some nice young pieces now with Juolevi coming. If they can sell the Sedins on moving this summer and get pieces back they’ll have a decent re-build underway.

    WSH at ARI – WSH playing COL and ARI in the same road trip must be nice.

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    If the AHL is truly a development league, then play all the rookies. Fayne may or may not be there to help. Same with Gryba, but Gryba’s game has got smarter. His positioning is much better to counteract his lack of speed. I mean, this is what we wanted, no vets taking ice time from the projects, isn’t it? The only problem is that you eat into your depth, as these young men shouldn’t be counted on as such. Still need a couple of decent vets as depth for the NHL team.

  4. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    The Devils need 5 points in the next six games to become the best team Taylor Hall has ever played for.

    Pray for him.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    WSH 34
    CBJ 30
    PIT 27
    MTL 20
    NYR 20-1st wildcard
    OTT 15
    TOR 13
    BOS 11-2nd wildcard
    ————
    TBY 9
    CAR 8
    NYI 6
    PHI 5
    FLA 0
    BUF -1
    DET -3
    NJD -8

    TOR and TBY has 6 games left, BOS has 5. This isn’t done but TOR should feel more comfortable.

    Dougie’s team is done.

    EC games tonight:

    PIT at NYR – PIT not playing like PIT due to missing 7 (!) starters and the goalering is wavy.

    NJD at NYI – NYI will be down after losing 6-3 in PHI last night and effectively ending their playoff hopes.

    CBJ at CHI – I will watch this game if I can. 2 very good teams.

    WSH at ARI – WSH on vacation road trip in the desert.

  6. Woogie63 says:

    Larsson, Klefbom and Nurse for the next 10 years should bring a smile to the faithful.

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    The Devils need 5 points in the next six games to become the best team Taylor Hall has ever played for.

    Pray for him.

    He is the Marcel Dionne of our time.

    Went from a garbage DET team to a slightly better LAK team, but they weren’t good.

    LAK were decent for the first two years of Dionne, but then losing Goring and Vachon and then they were meh for years.

  8. who says:

    I agree with your evaluation of DD. He looks comfortable, although not dangerous, at center in the offensive zone but he looks lost in his own end.
    One of the reasons that line got out shot so bad is that DD tends to stand around covering nobody and that leads to the opposition spending the entire shift in the Oilers zone. He was also the third man high and late to recognize a developing 2 on 1 in the neutral zone. Kassian had to come from further back and blew by DD to get a hook on Vlasic and prevent a good scoring chance.
    To sum up, this player does not exhibit good defensive instincts and does not have the physical tools to win many puck battles in his own end. Would love to see a different center on this line. Would really like to see Drai here but I know that is not going to happen.

  9. kinger_OIL says:

    Great post LT!

    – I love that we always lag each other, but you have always come to my thinking: from the dark days when you said it was a playoff team, to being a playoff team then now: you will get there!

    – Your just “delayed” when you say: “This is not a Stanley Cup team, not yet, because the balance and depth have not arrived yet” Now they aren’t favourites to be in the Cup, but they are right now, good enough to be there. They just are, now (and I’ve been saying it for months).

    – I’m not worried: you always catch up to my way of thinking!

  10. jm363561 says:

    I have mentioned this a few times since the start of the year and now we will get to find out – will an MO of bend but don’t break D; smokin’ goal tending; and opportunistic scoring (McD magic; puck luck; opposition error); get us in, up, round or over Park’s Peak Pike, or whatever the fuck it’s called.

    I bet the VisiCalc spreadsheets are whirring away trying to explain why the worse a team’s Corsi gets the better it’s results. All is explained by downloading the RussellStats app available only on SuperCalc ver 2.0 and above.

    Said in jest. I have really learned a lot from so many great posters here. We deserve a run.

    Play off city baby.

    Good night from Manila.

  11. Chachi says:

    “The only strong matchup I could find involved 97’s defensive opponent, and he struggled against Vlasic (7-18) and Braun (5-15).”

    This is true.

    It is also true that he made Vlasic and Braun look like Strudwick and Vandermeer on the first goal of the game.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    With all the talk about “Score Adjusted Fenwick in March” I thought I’d post some metrics from the Pacific division in March.

    All metrics are score adjusted

    Fenwick
    Team FF%
    S.J 52.1
    ANA 51.7
    CGY 50.7
    EDM 49.1

    Corsi
    Team CF%
    ANA 52.5
    CGY 51.5
    S.J 50.8
    EDM 47.1

    Shots on net
    Team SF%
    ANA 53.5
    S.J 50.5
    CGY 49.6
    EDM 48.8

    Scoring Chances (shots in “arrow” in front of net)
    Team SCF%
    ANA 56.1
    EDM 53.2
    S.J 53.2
    CGY 51.3

    Expected Goals
    Team xGF%
    ANA 56.2
    S.J 51.7
    EDM 50.9
    CGY 50.4

    5v5 SV%
    Team Sv%
    ANA 94.53
    EDM 93.29
    CGY 92.64
    S.J 91.55

    5v5 SH%
    Team Sh%
    EDM 10.14
    CGY 8.78
    ANA 8.19
    S.J 6.97

    5v5 PDO
    Team PDO
    EDM 103.43
    ANA 102.73
    CGY 101.42
    S.J 98.53

    5v5 Goals For%
    Team GF%
    ANA 63.29
    EDM 59.02
    CGY 54.03
    S.J 45.75

    I think all these metrics make it clear that ANA is the class of the division.

    SJS is still good, but goalering might sink them if it doesn’t stiffen up. Jones’ SV% was trending down all March.

    EDM is in tough regardless of who they play, but now I think CGY is the easiest match up.

    Need to win the division to see that and have CGY be the 1st wildcard.

  13. DBO says:

    So who do they call up for the playoffs? Not sure on when or how, but do they get extra roster spots once playoffs start?

    And yes #freeAnton!!!!!!!
    I still believe he is a better fit at 3C then Desharnais. Especially against a team like San Jose. Move Desharnais to 4LW, bringing more experience then Cagguila.

    Won’t happen. McClennlan likes what he likes. And sideburns is not one of them.

    Regardless. They are in the playoffs. Awesome. They are not balanced and I worry about a heavier team like San Jose, expecially with Couture back, not sure if our centres can keep up if we have a smurf like Desharnais in there.

  14. season not played says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He is the Marcel Dionne of our time.

    Went from a garbage DET team to a slightly better LAK team, but they weren’t good.

    LAK were decent for the first two years of Dionne, but then losing Goring and Vachon and then they were meh for years.

    Marcel Dionne?!!

    Taylor Hall wishes.

    I’m kind of a 40 is the new 50, 80 is the new 100 guy when it comes to scoring era adjustments although I think that is probably a little low. Nonetheless, have a look a Marcel Dionnes career and then get back on here and compare Taylor Hall to Marcel Dionne. I haven’t looked lately but I’ll bet you see some 130 point years as well as multiple 50 goal seasons.

    Its not close.

  15. Bag of Pucks says:

    Funny for me to see a Marcel Dionne reference on the board today, because the last week really has me thinking of that LA team with the Triple Crown Line a lot.

    Granted, it’s super fun to watch the hometown team have the highest scoring tandem in the league with McDavid and Draisaitl. Add in Maroon, and we’ve got our northern version of the super line. Let’s call it the Crown Royal line today for shits n giggles.

    But having one dominant line does not win Cups.

    Truly believe the way forward next season is two skilled pairs made from some combination of McDavid with Nuge or Puli and Drai with Nuge or Puli. Sprinkle in two of Eberle, Lucic, Maroon to round out your trios and we should have 2 outscoring lines capable of competing with anyone.

    I’ll give TMac credit where it’s due. I think he desperately tried to find more balanced lines and scoring earlier in the season, and when it didn’t click, he landed on this super line and decided, “I can win with this formula.” Worries me a tad that he did the same thing in San Jose, but I remain hopeful that the longterm plan is to eventually land on a legitimate top 6,

  16. frjohnk says:

    Sharks outplayed the Oilers last night. Part of that was score effects but Sharks had 26 shots on net from the arrow while the Oilers took 11. Arrow is slot and area by the slot. Talbot had to be frinking elite and was.

    With those numbers we will need an elite Talbot and an elite McDavid running red hot every night to win. That happened last night. Can they both do it every night in the playoffs? Probably not. They will need help.

  17. Bag of Pucks says:

    Early days yet, but Desharnais is looking like a classic Eastern Conference player atm. Hope he has the ability to elevate his play for what looks to be a rugged Western Conference playoff season.

    Btw, does Mark Letestu remind any other old timey fans of Jim Dowd?

  18. bbf_iii says:

    season not played: Marcel Dionne?!!

    Taylor Hall wishes.

    I’m kind of a 40 is the new 50, 80 is the new 100 guy when it comes to scoring era adjustments although I think that is probably a little low. Nonetheless, have a look a Marcel Dionnes career and then get back on here and compare Taylor Hall to Marcel Dionne. I haven’t looked lately but I’ll bet you see some 130 point years as well as multiple 50 goal seasons.

    Its not close.

    I think the analogy was about a good player being passed around poor teams and not about whether their scoring numbers were completely equal. Taylor Hall doesn’t have to be Marcel Dionne’s equal for the comparison to work.

  19. Ribs says:

    Patrick Maroon will be talking about this season until he’s 102. Who can blame him? Great moment came after his first goal when McDavid kept shaking his head. I bet they put that in the movie.

    That was great. I wonder if they’ll start up some Oil Change filming again. I think it would be a bit more fun this time around!

  20. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Funny for me to see a Marcel Dionne reference on the board today, because the last week really has me thinking of that LA team with the Triple Crown Line a lot.

    Granted, it’s super fun to watch the hometown team have the highest scoring tandem in the league with McDavid and Draisaitl. Add in Maroon, and we’ve got our northern version of the super line. Let’s call it the Crown Royal line today for shits n giggles.

    But having one dominant line does not win Cups.

    Truly believe the way forward next season is two skilled pairs made from some combination of McDavid with Nuge or Puli and Drai with Nuge or Puli. Sprinkle in two of Eberle, Lucic, Maroon to round out your trios and we should have 2 outscoring lines capable of competing with anyone.

    I’ll give TMac credit where it’s due. I think he desperately tried to find more balanced lines and scoring earlier in the season, and when it didn’t click, he landed on this super line and decided, “I can win with this formula.” Worries me a tad that he did the same thing in San Jose, but I remain hopeful that the longterm plan is to eventually land on a legitimate top 6,

    I believe Drai with Nuge and Lucic would drive a line that would rival many other first lines in the league.

    Then the team would have two lines that could dominate.

    I love Pouliot and Kassian as wingers on the 3rd line. Both are big, fast, have skill and r great on the forecheck. I think Cags has taken another step forward and because DD is dragging those two down, Id put Cags in between those two.

    Play the 4th line less than 10 minutes.

  21. digger50 says:

    bbf_iii: I think the analogy was about a good player being passed around poor teams and not about whether their scoring numbers were completely equal. Taylor Hall doesn’t have to be Marcel Dionne’s equal for the comparison to work.

    </blockquote

    Good post

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    frjohnk,

    I would love to see TMac trying on some of those combinations for size.

    Draisaitl is such a good passer. I would love it if the team could identify someone with an accurate one timer to team with him. Maroon or Pitlick might be the best candidates for that role. They both have amongst the highest S% on the team this year. The question of course is how sustainable those numbers are.

    Lucic historically has a very good S% and I remain intrigued by the possibilities of Draisaitl and Lucic pairing too. Pair them with a big boy like a Puli or Kassian and you have a line that should be able to cycle with the best in the league.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    season not played,

    Its not close.

    When comparing two players from different eras you need to adjust the points based on league wide goals per game.

    In this case I will adjust Dionne’s numbers down to the same NHL goals/game as Hall’s year:

    18 year old
    Hall 0.646 pts/gm
    Dionne – not in NHL

    19 year old
    Hall 0.868 pts/gm
    Dionne – not in NHL

    20 year old
    Hall 1.11 pts/gm
    Dionne 0.878 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.89)

    21 year old
    Hall 1.066 pts/gm
    Dionne 0.977 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.836)

    22 year old
    Hall 0.716 pts/gm
    Dionne .901 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.853)

    23 year old
    Hall 0.792 pts/gm
    Dionne 1.19 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.79)

    24 year old
    Hall 0.772 pts/gm
    Dionne 0.948 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.807)

    Dionne certainly ahead the last 3 years, Hall ahead for first years they both played.

    I wonder how much that knee injury slowed Hall down?

    He went from 1pt/gm or close to under 0.8 year after year after the injury.

  24. slopitch says:

    If DD continues to struggle and if they call up JP, I can see them moving Drai on 2C, bumping Nuge down to 3C. Who plays RW with McDavid? That Im not sure. But I dont think you can be a one line team in the playoffs. They will have 7 games to shut down McDavid and get him off his game. By all means you load up the PP with 29/97 but I think we may be first round fodder without multiple lines that can score. So that said, I dont think JP could possibly go from AHL to 1RW so perhaps we’d see…

    19-97-44
    27-29-14
    67-93-96/42
    36-13-55

    Lots of ifs and JP might be best suited by sitting in the AHL. But I dont see a team going far with 1 line. 3 lines worked for the Oilers in 06 and scoring depth is pretty common for all teams that go far in the playoffs.

    Plus I like 97 with 2 bodyguards 😉

  25. dustrock says:

    Kinda feel Draisaitl was robbed of a 2nd assist on Maroon’s 2nd goal, it was his no-look backhand from behind the net that directly led to the goal.

    But then I’m a Drai fanboy, so.

  26. Bag of Pucks says:

    Nuge / McDavid / Pitlick
    Lucic / Draisaitl / Pulijarvi
    Maroon / FA / Eberle
    Caggiula / Letestu / Sleppy

    Plug the right guy in at 3C next year and I think those top 3 lines have unicorn potential

    The above leaves Pouliot out in the cold and they may have Caggiula penciled in as a 3L guy next year.

    Wouldn’t surprise me to see Chiarelli deal a LW for a RW in the offseason to better balance the Top 9.

    Of course all of this is moot, as nobody in this frickin’ organization seems willing to try Nuge as a LW.

  27. Chachi says:

    dustrock:
    Kinda feel Draisaitl was robbed of a 2nd assist on Maroon’s 2nd goal, it was his no-look backhand from behind the net that directly led to the goal.

    But then I’m a Drai fanboy, so.

    Drai’s assist was interrupted by Tomas Hertl taking possession of the puck and passing it directly to Russell. Unfortunately no assist for Herr Draisaitl.

  28. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    season not played,

    Its not close.

    When comparing two players from different eras you need to adjust the points based on league wide goals per game.

    In this case I will adjust Dionne’s numbers down to the same NHL goals/game as Hall’s year:

    18 year old
    Hall 0.646 pts/gm
    Dionne – not in NHL

    19 year old
    Hall 0.868 pts/gm
    Dionne – not in NHL

    20 year old
    Hall 1.11 pts/gm
    Dionne 0.878 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.89)

    21 year old
    Hall 1.066 pts/gm
    Dionne 0.977 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.836)

    22 year old
    Hall 0.716 pts/gm
    Dionne .901 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.853)

    23 year old
    Hall 0.792 pts/gm
    Dionne 1.19 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.79)

    24 year old
    Hall 0.772 pts/gm
    Dionne 0.948 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.807)

    Dionne certainly ahead the last 3 years, Hall ahead for firstyears they both played.

    I wonder how much that knee injury slowed Hall down?

    He went from 1pt/gm or close to under 0.8 year after year after the injury.

    Closer than I thought it would be. Does Hall ever again get anywhere near competing for an Art Ross like Dionne did pretty consistently for a while? I think after the last big injury Hall adjusted his game to prevent himself from getting murdered on the ice. I don’t blame him one bit. Still a hell of a player.

  29. anjinsan says:

    THE spiritual rule is ‘Don’t sell your soul.’
    Why the hell did Chiarelli go against his whole being and bring in teeny weeny Desharnais? Really.
    Yes to Lander.

    Cool on the 4th line stats you showed. A day with Slepyshev at RW is a good day.

  30. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 7

    Except Taylor Hall will never be in the top 100 greatest NHLers ever by anyone’s vote

  31. Todd Macallan says:

    Outside of CGY/SJ tonight, the Condor game also interests me to check out Gambardella, and Puju as always.

  32. treevojo says:

    Chachi:
    “The only strong matchup I could find involved 97’s defensive opponent, and he struggled against Vlasic (7-18) and Braun (5-15).”

    This is true.

    It is also true that he made Vlasic and Braun look like Strudwick and Vandermeer on the first goal of the game.

    Best hope you are packing bear spray.

    Blasphemy

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bbf_iii: I think the analogy was about a good player being passed around poor teams and not about whether their scoring numbers were completely equal. Taylor Hall doesn’t have to be Marcel Dionne’s equal for the comparison to work.

    That’s pretty much it.

    Went ahead and did the numbers comparison because I was curious.

  34. OF17 says:

    slopitch:

    19-97-44
    27-29-14
    67-93-96/42
    36-13-55

    Way too much movement for this time of year IMO, although I like the idea in general. We have lines and pairings that are comfortable with each other, that have spent an extended period of time together, and that we’ve won a ton of games with. Now isn’t the time to make wholesale line changes.

    Next season, I wouldn’t mind seeing Maroon-McDavid-Eberle, Lucic-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi, Pouliot-“Hanzal”-Kassian, Caggiula-Letestu-Pitlick/Slepyshev/Khaira. Nuge goes for a RHD and Hanzal comes in as replacement. Sprinkle upgrades in as necessary, but I think that team would be dangerous, and given the high number of returning players, they would have a real chance to build off of a fantastic 16/17 season.

  35. digger50 says:

    Montreal needed to dump DD and his salary to bring in new bodies for playoff push. There was a reason in thier minds why he was out, new bodies in. This seemed obvious. Likely could have had him for a sixth rather than a perfectly good defender.

    If DD is now replaced at center, and he should be, that hurts even more.

  36. Diablo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s pretty much it.

    Went ahead and did the numbers comparison because I was curious.

    He’s more Vince Damphousse than Marcel Dionne perhaps.

    Damphousse found some team success late in his career – hope the same holds true for Hall.

  37. season not played says:

    Chachi: Closer than I thought it would be. Does Hall ever again get anywhere near competing for an Art Ross like Dionne did pretty consistently for a while? I think after the last big injury Hall adjusted his game to prevent himself from getting murdered on the ice. I don’t blame him one bit. Still a hell of a player.

    Take a look at the numbers carefully. It’s not close.

    Some time in the late eighties I read a little paperback about Gretzky, I think it might have been Stan Fischler, but I can’t remember for sure. Also, forgive me if this is not 100% correct, a lot has happened since the late eighties. In Gretzky’s first year in the NHL as he was chasing Lafleur and Dionne in the scoring race a reporter or some thing pointed it out and Gretzky’s reaction was disbelief as he could not believe he was closing on, in his words, Jesus and God. Not sure if Dionne was Jesus or God, but there is only one player today who might fall into the category of a deity.

    So, though I understand the analogy and the point spreadsheetguy, I mean woodguy was attempting to make, it is just a very poor analogy. Further, any player who has put up a couple good years and played for two teams and never won a cup could have been used as a comparison for Hall but an all time great was chosen for a reason. That’s actually the way some of these guys view Hall.

    Ridiculous.

  38. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I thought the Dionne reference made sense.

    Both part of a hotly-debated 1-2 draft, his alter player goes immediately to a Cup contender while he wanders through the wilderness through no fault of his own, a wonderful player who struggled to be recognized for what he could do.

    I had hoped that Hall wouldn’t become Dionne the year after Seguin won with the Bruins, but Seguin’s career has since taken a different trajectory and Hall is still a young man who may yet find his way onto a winning team the way Kessel eventually did.

    Just so long as his Cup isn’t taken at the expense of the Oilers…

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    frjohnk,

    I would love to see TMac trying on some of those combinations for size.

    Draisaitl is such a good passer. I would love it if the team could identify someone with an accurate one timer to team with him.Maroon or Pitlick might be the best candidates for that role. They both have amongst the highest S% on the team this year. The question of course is how sustainable those numbers are.

    Lucic historically has a very good S% and I remain intrigued by the possibilities of Draisaitl and Lucic pairing too. Pair them with a big boy like a Puli or Kassian and you have a line that should be able to cycle with the best in the league.

    Both Drai and McDavid need RH shooters.

    Here’s the Oilers’ top shooters by volume. I’ll “*” the RHS.

    PITLICK, TYLER 10.69 *****
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 8.39
    MCDAVID, CONNOR 8.28
    EBERLE, JORDAN 7.78 ******
    MAROON, PATRICK 7.47
    KASSIAN, ZACK 7.4 *********
    PAKARINEN, IIRO 7.39 *********
    PULJUJARVI, JESSE 7.27 *********
    SLEPYSHEV, ANTON 7.12 **********
    KHAIRA, JUJHAR 6.7
    CAGGIULA, DRAKE 6.07

    I truly think that both Kassian and Slepy’s volume would go up with top 6 TOI. Pitlick didn’t have time to regress.

    The options are there.

    I agree with you that 93-29 could probably drive a line together with a shooter.

    I’d play Drai on LW there though.

    He can take the draws, but Nuge needs to be F1 in the dzone the most due to ability.

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock:
    Kinda feel Draisaitl was robbed of a 2nd assist on Maroon’s 2nd goal, it was his no-look backhand from behind the net that directly led to the goal.

    But then I’m a Drai fanboy, so.

    The pass ended up on a SJS defenders stick, who then tried to clear it right on to Russell’s stick.

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GMB3: Except Taylor Hall will never be in the top 100 greatest NHLers ever by anyone’s vote

    Dionne played 1348 games.

    Hall is at 447 games.

    Little early to come to that conclusion there champ.

  42. ibleedoil says:

    “The criticisms of this team are known and actual”

    It feels like at this point (the team shooting for division champs and a 100 point season), the criticism should be a faint whisper. There will be plenty of time in the off-season to discuss the need for balance but for now, this team is going out there and winning games. And lots of them. Let’s enjoy the ride.

  43. Westchester Oil says:

    dustrock:
    Kinda feel Draisaitl was robbed of a 2nd assist on Maroon’s 2nd goal, it was his no-look backhand from behind the net that directly led to the goal

    Maybe Katz or Chiarelli intimidated the scorekeeper so that Drai doesnt get his full bonus.

    But then I’m a Drai fanboy, so.

  44. RexLibris says:

    I had posted my SJS/EDM officiating review from Dec yesterday before the game.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/02/officiating-recap-san-jose-sharks-dec-23/

    In that game Braun was one to watch as he was tasked with handling McDavid and approached it by trying to take a physical angle. He committed 7 infractions and was penalized twice (a hook and a hold), so you can debate the effectiveness of that strategy.

    Vlasic/Braun is the most likely defensive pair McDavid’s line sees if they meet in the playoffs and Braun is entirely willing to be a dirty no-good sonofagun.

    That said, it does not appear that McDavid is particularly unnerved by that approach, so in my opinion what it may come down to is the latitude given and priorities made by the officials.

    They could hold to a standard rate of call, which is to say that they’ll ding a team for about every 5th infraction and then try to even up the calls accordingly (which seems to be the common approach now) or they could call a game on a more distinctively relative basis, where they call a team on every 5th infraction but don’t try to even them up, so if a team wants to push the envelope they will be punished accordingly, regardless of what the other team does.

    That is my preferred approach, but one that I’ve witnessed rarely.

    Happened to LAK last year in their series with SJS.

    The refs began by giving LA the benefit of the doubt on nearly every call, letting them cross-check Pavelski three or four times on a single zone-possession without penalty.

    SJS fought through it, took a 2-1 series lead, and then it was like a switch went off and the refs started calling penalties against the Kings the way they did here the other night (for instance, McNabb’s roughing call – on Pouliot, no less – that, in previous seasons, would have often gone without notice).

    I’d almost welcome an EDM/CGY series if only to hear a hue and cry from Flames fans about every call that went against them because of their imagined Wideman Curse. This might be the 1st round series I review, if I decide to do it again.

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Both Drai and McDavid need RH shooters.

    Here’s the Oilers’ top shooters by volume.I’ll “*” the RHS.

    PITLICK, TYLER10.69 *****
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN8.39
    MCDAVID, CONNOR8.28
    EBERLE, JORDAN7.78 ******
    MAROON, PATRICK7.47
    KASSIAN, ZACK7.4 *********
    PAKARINEN, IIRO7.39 *********
    PULJUJARVI, JESSE7.27 *********
    SLEPYSHEV, ANTON7.12 **********
    KHAIRA, JUJHAR6.7
    CAGGIULA, DRAKE6.07

    I truly think that both Kassian and Slepy’s volume would go up with top 6 TOI.Pitlick didn’t have time to regress.

    The options are there.

    I agree with you that 93-29 could probably drive a line together with a shooter.

    I’d play Drai on LW there though.

    He can take the draws, but Nuge needs to be F1 in the dzone the most due to ability.

    Absolutely agree, they both need a classic RHS RW, but I think one of the massive pluses with both of these players is that they are equally adept passing on their backhand. Because of that, we may find the pass distribution is more equally weighted to both wingers than it would be with a conventional left handed C.

    Leon’s backhand pass to Connor in stride last night was a thing of absolute beauty. Like a perfect golf swing.

  46. Frank the dog says:

    So from a scoring perspective, McDavid > Crosby, Draisatl > Malkin.
    How about that.

    I’m scared I will wake up to discover that the dementor has been given a 5 year extension. This playoff thing hasn’t sunk in yet.

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    Last night Remenda gave Leon the Jumbo Joe comparison and this morning on TSN, Button gave him the Malkin comp. Seems like the media’s jumping on the Drai bandwagon in a big way.

    Thank Gord they didn’t draft Bennett. Props to MacT.

    Wonder if Buffalo is regretting that Sam Reinhart pick much?

  48. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The pass ended up on a SJS defenders stick, who then tried to clear it right on to Russell’s stick.

    Oh, I’m very aware of that. I just felt it was a scramble and there wasn’t “possession” per se.

    Just arguing for the heck of it on a Friday.

  49. Chachi says:

    season not played: Take a look at the numbers carefully. It’s not close.

    Some time in the late eighties I read a little paperback about Gretzky, I think it might have been Stan Fischler, but I can’t remember for sure. Also, forgive me if this is not 100% correct, a lot has happened since the late eighties.In Gretzky’s first year in the NHL as he was chasing Lafleur and Dionne in the scoring race a reporter or some thing pointed it out and Gretzky’s reaction was disbelief as he could not believe he was closing on, in his words, Jesus and God.Not sure if Dionne was Jesus or God, but there is only one player today who might fall into the category of a deity.

    So, though I understand the analogy and the point spreadsheetguy, I mean woodguy was attempting to make, it is just a very poor analogy. Further, any player who has put up a couple good years and played for two teams and never won a cup could have been used as a comparison for Hall but an all time great was chosen for a reason. That’s actually the way some of these guys view Hall.

    Ridiculous.

    I remember Dionne as a fairly chubby guy, even by 1980s athletic standards. Maybe he was more like the Buddha.

  50. Georges says:

    LT: “David Desharnais seems to be spending his evenings in the defensive zone trying to occupy the exact area identified as ‘no-man’s land’ and it’s going to cost goals.”

    Where exactly is ‘no man’s land’? Is it in front of the net? Maybe TMac doesn’t want us outnumbered (bad thing) in the most vulnerable area of the defensive zone…? He can live with lots of CA from the perimeter but once the puck gets close to the red light district, he wants more of our jerseys than their jerseys waiting there to greet it.

    And, is DD struggling? Did that line get outscored last night and I missed it? Was Talbot standing on his head a la Scrivens v. Sharks while our 3rd line was out there?

    I listen to the Boston announcers during their games. They make it a point to single out when their team does a poor job of defending the danger areas. Apparently they do it often enough the announcers have caught on. Some of that team’s bad PDO is earned.

    TMac has spent practically the whole season getting his team to play with more structure in the defensive zone and recognize good and bad tradeoffs in positioning. The Oilers are now a reasonably difficult team to score against. That’s an enormous leap. Talbot has been excellent. His GSAA60 will tell you that. But I watch the games. He has very rarely had to be ridiculous. The team in front of him is, for the most part, playing a structured game and limiting breakdowns. Opponents are earning their goals. Every line of this one line team contributes to that.

    Here’s the Oilers 5v5 GA60 in each month of the season:

    Oct. 1.88
    Nov. 2.68
    Dec. 1.90
    Jan. 2.19
    Feb. 1.88
    Mar. 2.09

    To provide some context, ANA has the 5th best GA60 for the season: 2.06

    The Oilers are 9th for the season: 2.13

  51. McSorley33 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Early days yet, but Desharnais is looking like a classic Eastern Conference player atm. Hope he has the ability to elevate his play for what looks to be a rugged Western Conference playoff season.
    ********************************************************************************************
    Um…yep. I said the same last week.

    I have similar questions to RNH….a -1 watching Hansen score ( not blaming him per se ) meanwhile generating 1 shot on goal for himself.

    And yes, I know, this stat doesn’t count…but he is absolutely running away with the Oilers Green Jacket on a team that has very few minus players.

    Unsurprisingly, only Looch can can catch him.

  52. RexLibris says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Last night Remenda gave Leon the Jumbo Joe comparison and this morning on TSN, Button gave him the Malkin comp. Seems like the media’s jumping on the Drai bandwagon in a big way.

    Thank Gord they didn’t draft Bennett. Props to MacT.

    Wonder if Buffalo is regretting that Sam Reinhart pick much?

    Buffalo’s regrets should probably begin with hiring Tim Murray and progress from there. Interesting that both Reinhart AND Bennett have had poor seasons and, while I don’t know as much detail about Reinhart’s I can say in Bennett’s case, this is largely due to depth, support and deployment by the coach.

    Bennett was supposed to be getting shelter from Monahan but he didn’t progress well earlier this year and it forced Gulutzan into pushing Bennett around the roster. Right now I think he’s got Brouwer on one wing and maybe Bouma on the other. They’re shackling him to a parking meter and telling him to learn to fly.

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ibleedoil:
    “The criticisms of this team are known and actual”

    It feels like at this point (the team shooting for division champs and a 100 point season), the criticism should be a faint whisper. There will be plenty of time in the off-season to discuss the need for balance but for now, this team is going out there and winning games. And lots of them. Let’s enjoy the ride.

    Why are people so hung up on how others consume and enjoy the hockey team they cheer for?

    “You must feel the way I feel, so I’m going to go to places where they cheer differently than me and tell them they’re wrong”

    I don’t get it.

  54. Scungilli says:

    I don’t know how DD is a better option than Lander the way DD has been playing, especially for the playoffs when brainfarts and puck watching kill. Lander must have offended somebody big time.

    I didn’t see the Sharks as that dangerous last night. Talbot was good but not all shots from an area are equal even if they show as high danger. The Oilers have been good at limiting good looks overall even if from the slot, but have players that mess up and give up 5 bell chances.

    This is my issue with Russell. He is a step up from a lot of guys they have used, but the Pavelski goal was a really poor play for a so called defensive veteran. And that heated things up a lot in giving them hope to end the game.

    It will and has been great, but the weak links are pretty weak and it seems they are set with how they are running. Anything can happen in the playoffs though.

  55. Profit says:

    I might have missed it, but is there any chance to get Pitlick back?

    I don’t remember hearing anything about his injury status…

  56. season not played says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Why are people so hung up on how others consume and enjoy the hockey team they cheer for?

    “You must feel the way I feel, so I’m going to go to places where they cheer differently than me and tell them they’re wrong”

    I don’t get it.

    I’ll stop calling you names if you stop calling anybody on here a name.

    Myself, I could care less how people enjoy hockey on here. I myself find it a wonderful hobby, my favorite aspect is team construction and player development.

    I also respect much of the numbers on here but just can’t 100% get behind it. Call me old school or archaic but G A PTS +/- PM always worked just fine for me.

    My problem is people so vehemently defending something so wrong.

    Have a good day.

  57. Profit says:

    Ah I see on December 23 it says gone for the season w/ ACL. Probably too much to hope for a playoff comeback.

    Tough luck. I feel for the kid.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The Hockey News has their prediction on which Canadian teams have the best chance of winning the Cup.

    1. MTL
    2. TOR
    3. EDM
    4. CGY
    5. OTT

    That’s probably not that far off, but TOR ahead of EDM & CGY makes me raise a Spockian eyebrow

    Its based on some metrics by Dom Luszczyszyn. He’s a decent fancy stat analyst, but I don’t completely buy what he’s selling.

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/which-canadian-team-has-the-best-odds-of-taking-home-the-stanley-cup

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    season not played: I’ll stop calling you names if you stop calling anybody on here a name.

    Myself, I could care less how people enjoy hockey on here. I myself find it a wonderful hobby, my favorite aspect is team construction and player development.

    I also respect much of the numbers on here but just can’t 100% get behind it. Call me old school or archaic but G A PTS +/- PM always worked just fine for me.

    My problem is people so vehemently defending something so wrong.

    Have a good day.

    I haven’t called anyone a name. edit: I suppose calling GMB3 “champ” is name calling. Sorry.

    Nor do I tell people how to enjoy/consume hockey and people who do that truly confuse me.

    I will argue things I think are true until convinced otherwise and I try pretty hard to keep it on the up and up.

    You will notice that all of the derisive comments (there weren’t many) in our exchange came from you. I ignored them and just argued the information.

    In short, I think you are suffering from the same thing others suffer from (myself included)

    You are arguing with what you think the other person is saying instead of arguing with what I’m actually writing.

  60. Chachi says:

    treevojo: Best hope you are packing bear spray.

    Blasphemy

    OK then, McDavid made Vlasic and Braun look like Allan Rourke and Bryan Young?

  61. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Its based on some metrics by Dom Luszczyszyn.

    I’d like to buy a vowel.

  62. russ99 says:

    So with 4 games left does anyone doubt McDavid will get to 100 points?

    I hope I didn’t jinx him…

    If he gets there it may sway the Hart nincompoops.

  63. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    The Hockey News has their prediction on which Canadian teams have the best chance of winning the Cup.

    1. MTL
    2. TOR
    3. EDM
    4. CGY
    5. OTT

    That’s probably not that far off, but TOR ahead of EDM & CGY makes me raise a Spockian eyebrow

    Its based on some metrics by Dom Luszczyszyn.He’s a decent fancy stat analyst, but I don’t completely buy what he’s selling.

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/which-canadian-team-has-the-best-odds-of-taking-home-the-stanley-cup

    That’s insane.

    Toronto has won 37 hockey games this year. 37. Out of 76. LESS THAN HALF THEIR GAMES.

    Unless somebody changed the rules and made it so that losing in overtime is somehow helpful in the playoffs, they aren’t winning the cup.

  64. season not played says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I haven’t called anyone a name.

    Nor do I tell people how to enjoy/consume hockey and people who do that truly confuse me.

    I will argue things I think are true until convinced otherwise and I try pretty hard to keep it on the up and up.

    You will notice that all of the derisive comments (there weren’t many) in our exchange came from you.I ignored them and just argued the information.

    In short, I think you are suffering from the same thing others suffer from (myself included)

    You are arguing with what you think the other person is saying instead of arguing with what I’m actually writing.

    Little early to come to that conclusion there champ.

    There is always a bigger picture Darcy.

  65. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: I’d like to buy a vowel.

    Sometimes Y

  66. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Why are people so hung up on how others consume and enjoy the hockey team they cheer for?

    “You must feel the way I feel, so I’m going to go to places where they cheer differently than me and tell them they’re wrong”

    I don’t get it.

    I don’t get it either. He said something substantial and he said it cheerfully. Everything that gets posted on here, including by our host, is a form of telling people what to think and feel, no? And part of that is telling them that what or how they currently think is wrong. There seem to be a lot of different people in this place. They all cheer differently. It’s all good. So what’s not good?

    EDIT: Only engaging because this seems to be a rules of the game, meta thing. Not interested in chastising (if my post comes off like that). Wanting clarification on what’s not good.

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris: Buffalo’s regrets should probably begin with hiring Tim Murray and progress from there.

    Definitely a mixed bag with Murray. Trying to fast track his rebuild with the likes of Evander Kane and Robin Lehner seems dubious. Would rate the O’Reilly trade as a win for him however.

    And certainly Murray looks much better as a GM if the lottery balls drop him McDavid instead of Eichel. Oh well, sucks to be him : )

  68. treevojo says:

    russ99:
    So with 4 games left does anyone doubt McDavid will get to 100 points?

    I hope I didn’t jinx him…

    If he gets there it may sway the Hart nincompoops.

    Probably depends on what he does in that 5th game.

  69. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    Diablo,

    I bet you/re WRONG too
    Lets wait and see…

  70. classict says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    The Hockey News has their prediction on which Canadian teams have the best chance of winning the Cup.

    1. MTL
    2. TOR
    3. EDM
    4. CGY
    5. OTT

    That’s probably not that far off, but TOR ahead of EDM & CGY makes me raise a Spockian eyebrow

    Its based on some metrics by Dom Luszczyszyn.He’s a decent fancy stat analyst, but I don’t completely buy what he’s selling.

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/which-canadian-team-has-the-best-odds-of-taking-home-the-stanley-cup

    I don’t know that it’s completely off base though. The biggest impact on it is going to be match ups and getting out of the first round. If you think Edmonton is going to play one of SJ (that rebounds back to pre March form) or Anaheim and Toronto is going to get Ottawa I know which match up I prefer.

    He does mention that it’s likely not accounting for the poor month SJ is having. If Couture stays hurt and SJ doesn’t rebound Edmonton is probably ahead of Toronto.

    Also, I take Leafs beating the Sens over Calgary beating Chi/Ana any day. So Toronto ahead of Calgary is probably fair.

  71. classict says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: That’s insane.

    Toronto has won 37 hockey games this year.37.Out of 76.LESS THAN HALF THEIR GAMES.

    Unless somebody changed the rules and made it so that losing in overtime is somehow helpful in the playoffs, they aren’t winning the cup.

    The article does mention Toronto is one of the worst teams in the east, he just happens the think Ottawa might be the actual worst.

  72. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    The Hockey News has their prediction on which Canadian teams have the best chance of winning the Cup.

    1. MTL
    2. TOR
    3. EDM
    4. CGY
    5. OTT

    That’s probably not that far off, but TOR ahead of EDM & CGY makes me raise a Spockian eyebrow

    Its based on some metrics by Dom Luszczyszyn.He’s a decent fancy stat analyst, but I don’t completely buy what he’s selling.

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/which-canadian-team-has-the-best-odds-of-taking-home-the-stanley-cup

    At first glance I’d say that the TOR > EDM ranking is due to the idea that TOR has a wider array of offensive weapons than EDM’s “just McDavid”. But I haven’t clicked through to the article, so I’m just guessing here.

    Dom doesn’t strike me as a wide-eyed Leafs homer, so I’d guess he has some rationale for it, but like you, I’m not convinced it is necessarily definitive.

  73. 106 and 106 says:

    classict,

    From that article on why MTL is first: The defense looks deeper than ever with three legit first pairing guys in Weber, Markov and Jeff Petry.

    Wince.

    draft, develop and trade

  74. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    season not played,

    Its not close.

    When comparing two players from different eras you need to adjust the points based on league wide goals per game.

    In this case I will adjust Dionne’s numbers down to the same NHL goals/game as Hall’s year:

    18 year old
    Hall 0.646 pts/gm
    Dionne – not in NHL

    19 year old
    Hall 0.868 pts/gm
    Dionne – not in NHL

    20 year old
    Hall 1.11 pts/gm
    Dionne 0.878 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.89)

    21 year old
    Hall 1.066 pts/gm
    Dionne 0.977 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.836)

    22 year old
    Hall 0.716 pts/gm
    Dionne .901 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.853)

    23 year old
    Hall 0.792 pts/gm
    Dionne 1.19 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.79)

    24 year old
    Hall 0.772 pts/gm
    Dionne 0.948 pts/gm
    (adjustment 0.807)

    Dionne certainly ahead the last 3 years, Hall ahead for firstyears they both played.

    I wonder how much that knee injury slowed Hall down?

    He went from 1pt/gm or close to under 0.8 year after year after the injury.

    2 points:
    1) the comp would be very different if done on a “Draft +1” basis rather than by age. The change of eligibility is a confounding factor in that a modern player can have two years of NHL experience by the age an old timey guy wouldn’t have even been eligible to play in the league.
    2) interesting point about the knee injury. Worth noting that Edmonton traded him after the injury, when he was perhaps a devalued asset.

  75. StixMalone says:

    Bag of Pucks: Definitely a mixed bag with Murray. Trying to fast track his rebuild with the likes of Evander Kane and Robin Lehner seems dubious. Would rate the O’Reilly trade as a win for him however.

    And certainly Murray looks much better as a GM if the lottery balls drop him McDavid instead of Eichel. Oh well, sucks to be him : )

    I’ll never forget the look on his face when we won the lottery. When interviewed he sounded completely like a man who lost his best friend, and not impressed he let his team tank. Not sure if he even wanted Eichel! Kind of a cheap consolation prize was what I got out of it….

  76. dolenator says:

    Late in the season to be trying new lines but would
    mar-mcd-ebs
    Luc-nug-dri give better balance?

  77. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Dionne played 1348 games.

    Hall is at 447 games.

    Little early to come to that conclusion there champ.

    After his 6th season (Hall is in his 7th) Dionne was at 469 GP so close enough. He was also 2nd in the league scoring race after finishing 3rd previously, led the league in shots, & was widely considered to be one of the best players in the game.

    Taylor Hall is a very good player but he is not at that level.

    Dionne’s best seasons were still ahead of him at that point. Let’s hope for Hall’s sake the same is true for him, but from my couch he appears to be spinning his wheels a bit at this point.

  78. Todd Macallan says:

    Stauffer saying today on Oilers Now (paraphrasing): “I’m not one to be arrogant on predicting signings, but the Oilers are in on Spencer Foo.”

    Update: Now says Oilers are “firmly interested.”
    Friedman replies that it sounds like there is mutual interest but that his choice would likely occur after the expansion draft. Also says other teams he has spoken to think EDM will be tough to beat for his services (again paraphrasing)

  79. Bruce McCurdy says:

    season not played,

    To answer your earlier question, 6x 50-goal seasons for Dionne and 3x 130-point campaigns (& 3 more north of 120).

    13 seasons of 35+ goals and 12 of 90+ points. Not too many down years in there.

  80. ibleedoil says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “hung up” is not accurate. However you want to cheer “Hey look the oilers are shooting for a division title! but you know its only because mcdavid is pushing the river and the whole russell playing RD is not ideal because the stats have shown that a Left shooting defenseman on the right side is X% less effective, on and on and on.” That’s cool and all but my only point is, this team is winning! Yes, they exceeded all of our expectations but after 10 years of loss after loss, lets just enjoy it. A decade of doom and gloom (and I’ve watched 99% of the games over that timespan and reading nearly as many lowetide blog posts in that same span), I think its okay if we take some time to lay down the pitchforks and appreciate the team for who they are. Not perfect but hard working and they believe in each other. The results speak for themselves. This team is a winner.

  81. commonfan14 says:

    On the superline vs balance thing, it’s interesting to think about it from the perspective of what we’d like TMac to do if the team gets down a goal or two near the end of a playoff game. When they really need a goal, we’d probably mostly be okay with TMac loading up the top line, right?

    Well, doesn’t the team pretty much always need a goal in a playoff game? They don’t necessarily have to wail until they get down to go for it.

    I’d also interesting to think about it from the other coach’s POV in terms of what he;d be hoping TMac does. I’m guessing he’d love to see TMac break up the hottest line in the NHL.

    Maroon-McD-Drai is the most terrifying thing the Oilers can throw out on the ice. I’m not sure that’s something to be avoided in the playoffs.

  82. vishcosity says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Will play around with adding SV%, but need to figure out if you use:

    1) All situations or just 5v5
    2) March + SV%? Jan +? Full year? – need to see which one is more predictive

    and of course if you add SV%, how much are you adding?

    80% SCAF 20% SV%?
    50/50?

    Caught this last night and decided to go back and find it this am.

    1. Thanks for posting that.

    2. School maff b like:

    Y = 0.80 (SCAF) + 0,20 (SV%)

    if you were going to do a subset say (Mar 1 – end) that would traditionally be called SCAF’, but that sucks to read online so I’d pitch some lingo like

    Y(M1) = .8(SCAF-M1) + .2 (SV%-M1)

    From there, rainbows, puppy dogs and the DOW to 40K.

  83. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Both Drai and McDavid need RH shooters.

    Here’s the Oilers’ top shooters by volume.I’ll “*” the RHS.

    PITLICK, TYLER10.69 *****
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN8.39
    MCDAVID, CONNOR8.28
    EBERLE, JORDAN7.78 ******
    MAROON, PATRICK7.47
    KASSIAN, ZACK7.4 *********
    PAKARINEN, IIRO7.39 *********
    PULJUJARVI, JESSE7.27 *********
    SLEPYSHEV, ANTON7.12 **********
    KHAIRA, JUJHAR6.7
    CAGGIULA, DRAKE6.07

    I truly think that both Kassian and Slepy’s volume would go up with top 6 TOI.Pitlick didn’t have time to regress.

    The options are there.

    I agree with you that 93-29 could probably drive a line together with a shooter.

    I’d play Drai on LW there though.

    He can take the draws, but Nuge needs to be F1 in the dzone the most due to ability.

    McDavid certainly needs a shooter, but I don’t think it has to be a righty. That is what Maroon has excelled at this year. He drives hard to the net and he shoots the puck when he gets a chance.
    My version of the lines would go something like this. Keep in mind I am only using the current roster and will start with the third line.
    Poo Nuge Kass
    If you want Nuge to be the shutdown center, give him a pair of shutdown wingers. This could be a very good defensive line if you take DD out of the middle. And as bad as Nuge is going he is still a better offensive option than DD. I feel this line could hold their own against any line in the league.
    Lucic Drai Slep
    Makes Drai the focal point of a line and gives Slep a quality center ice man to play with. Have seen flashes of brilliance from Slep in the games he has played. Needs to bring it every night but he has the size, speed and shot to be an offensive contributor.
    Maroon Mcdavid Eberle
    Maroon has been good on this line since he was put there and Eberle has the skill to play with Mcdavid. You could argue with me on this line because Eberle failed his first trial here but I would give him another chance. He needs to get the puck to Mcdavid in the neutral zone a little quicker but I think he is smart enough to make that adjustment. He is just keeping the seat warm for JP anyway.
    Fourth line would be Letestu, Cags and whoever.
    I know this is not going to happen because, as someone correctly pointed out, it is too late in the year to make these kind of changes. It is also pretty obvious that Tmac is committed to keeping Mcdavid and Drai together for the rest of this year and maybe into the future. That really is the only reason for the DD trade. Chia wanted an experienced third line center and he must have seen DD good when he was in Boston.
    Still don’t like the trade but it probably won’t hurt the Oilers if their dmen stay healthy.

  84. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Dionne played 1348 games.

    Hall is at 447 games.

    Little early to come to that conclusion there champ.

    Maybe so, but he has had a tough time staying healthy, he’s had 2/3 really good years but his offensive production hasn’t be at the top level other then that. Lots of guys have several really good years and that’s all. He’s a very good player but in my opinion he lacks some of the high end finishing ability that the best players have. Your right that things could change but I’ve read countless times on this blog that most guys offensive production dips after they turn 26, so I don’t think the odds are in his favour. Dionne was a top 6-7 scorer in the NHL 7 or 8 times iirc

  85. Lowetide says:

    ibleedoil:
    “The criticisms of this team are known and actual”

    It feels like at this point (the team shooting for division champs and a 100 point season), the criticism should be a faint whisper. There will be plenty of time in the off-season to discuss the need for balance but for now, this team is going out there and winning games. And lots of them. Let’s enjoy the ride.

    Oh dear no, I can’t agree with that at all. For instance, when we get to the RE and Peter Chiarelli’s turn, I will discuss the decision to ‘control the build’ during McDavid’s entry-level deal. That is and will be a major story at this blog this spring.

  86. linkfromhyrule says:

    classict: I don’t know that it’s completely off base though. The biggest impact on it is going to be match ups and getting out of the first round. If you think Edmonton is going to play one of SJ (that rebounds back to pre March form) or Anaheim and Toronto is going to get Ottawa I know which match up I prefer.
    He does mention that it’s likely not accounting for the poor month SJ is having. If Couture stays hurt and SJ doesn’t rebound Edmonton is probably ahead of Toronto.
    Also, I take Leafs beating the Sens over Calgary beating Chi/Ana any day. So Toronto ahead of Calgary is probably fair.

    I would agree with this sentiment if Dom was only discussing making it out of the 1st round, but winning the cup is an entirely different ball game. TOR isn’t winning anything with that Dcore and that many rookies.

    I guess I just don’t understand his sentiment that making it out of the first round is that big of a deal. I mean, if TOR wins they play either NYR or MTL. Decent, not great teams, but TOR’s records against those teams are 1-1-1 and 0-3-1 respectively. After that? It’s either WSH, PIT, or CBJ and then they have to play the WCF winners.

    EDM and CGY play in a fairly weak division this season (quite similar to the Atlantic, actually), but the west as a whole is weaker this year relative to seasons past. A lot of the top teams are not looking that great, especially in the last month or so. EDM also has a great record against our own division.

    Reading the article it looks like he literally just ranked the teams based on their xGF% without taking recency into account. Not sure how much I trust that statistic’s predictive value for playoffs, but we’ll see! It should be a great post-season this year.

  87. npanciroli says:

    Didn’t see this posted after skimming the comments:

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/terry-jones-chiarelli-looks-back-on-what-will-be-for-the-oilers

    Thought it was a good article.

    Chiarelli uses a Football analogy to explain the Hall Larsson trade. Thought it was interesting.

  88. npanciroli says:

    Lowetide: the decision to ‘control the build’ during McDavid’s entry-level deal.

    Do you mind expanding on that? Can’t figure out what it means.

  89. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is why Spencer Foo interests me. NCAA free agent who had a good 22-year old season. RH RW, that I *think* skates well.

  90. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide: Oh dear no, I can’t agree with that at all. For instance, when we get to the RE and Peter Chiarelli’s turn, I will discuss the decision to ‘control the build’ during McDavid’s entry-level deal. That is and will be a major story at this blog this spring.

    Is that, as opposed to going for it?

    Whether they win something or not this spring, that should be a major story. You have to seize opportunities in this league due to all the parity BS. There is an opportunity here. Buying cost was low. Passing that up could come back to bite very easily.

  91. kinger_OIL says:

    npanciroli,

    – Thanks for this! I swear to god, I used this exact analogy on this blog to explain/validate the trade. Chia loves Kinger_Oil, Chia reads Lowtide: book it!

    Chia says:

    “I’ll use a football analogy about it. Teams have successful running backs that come and go. You can replace them. But the guys who get drafted the highest are the offensive left tackles,” said Chiarelli said of most quarterbacks’ blind side.. “You never hear about these guys. But look at any championship team, they always have a strong left side of the offensive line.

    “It’s not a sexy position. You don’t know these guys. But it’s a vitally important cog in the team. I’m not saying Larsson is a left tackle. But we had a lot of forwards. There is one puck. It was the best fit and there was a high acquisition cost and it played into the division. You need that type of player to win this division.”

  92. ibleedoil says:

    Lowetide,

    I look forward to those blog posts, LT. I think it was unfair for me to base my feedback on that one line from your intro today (we are both essentially saying the same thing – this run is amazing, enjoy!). My only additional point is that although criticism is warranted, no doubt, there is way more positive than negative. We had a great year and games areactually enjoyable to watch. With 3 or minutes left in the game last night, this team (as a whole) had done enough to convince me that we’re going to be able to hold the lead and take the 2 points. VS SJ!

    I’d love to hear more about the many infamous streaks we’ve exorcised this year (we actually won games against MN). There is a lot to celebrate, other than 97 and 33. On another note, it would be great to get a basic rundown on how playoff matches up are decided for R1. Unsuprisingly, NHL.com does a rather poor job in explaining clearly. It’s going to be a fun April.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    kinger_OIL:
    npanciroli,

    – Thanks for this! I swear to god, I used this exact analogy on this blog to explain/validate the trade.Chia loves Kinger_Oil, Chia reads Lowtide: book it!

    Chia says:

    “I’ll use a football analogy about it. Teams have successful running backs that come and go. You can replace them. But the guys who get drafted the highest are the offensive left tackles,” said Chiarelli said of most quarterbacks’ blind side.. “You never hear about these guys. But look at any championship team, they always have a strong left side of the offensive line.

    “It’s not a sexy position. You don’t know these guys. But it’s a vitally important cog in the team. I’m not saying Larsson is a left tackle. But we had a lot of forwards. There is one puck. It was the best fit and there was a high acquisition cost and it played into the division. You need that type of player to win this division.”

    & here I was comparing Larsson to an nFL quarterback who’d throw the ball away on third and long rather than forcing the pass into double coverage. I’ll stand by that, but chia’s analogy is probably better.

  94. commonfan14 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: & here I was comparing Larsson to an nFL quarterback who’d throw the ball away on third and long rather than forcing the pass into double coverage.

    Larsson the Game Manager.

  95. OF17 says:

    Profit:
    Ah I see on December 23 it says gone for the season w/ ACL. Probably too much to hope for a playoff comeback.

    Tough luck. I feel for the kid.

    Can’t remember which one, but on one of the Oilers’ youtube interviews from recent days, the player being interviewed was standing in front of a stall with Pitlick’s name bar and full gear. Probably won’t play, since a fringe player missing a few months isn’t a recipe for playoff performer, but I’d imagine he’s at least skating or close to it.

  96. slopitch says:

    OF17,

    Fair point about the timing of the moves. Now may not be the time. I do think they will need more scoring depth to win a round. Perhaps 27/93/14 emerge at the right time. We can hope anyways.

  97. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I haven’t called anyone a name.edit: I suppose calling GMB3 “champ” is name calling. Sorry.

    Nor do I tell people how to enjoy/consume hockey and people who do that truly confuse me.

    I will argue things I think are true until convinced otherwise and I try pretty hard to keep it on the up and up.

    You will notice that all of the derisive comments (there weren’t many) in our exchange came from you.I ignored them and just argued the information.

    In short, I think you are suffering from the same thing others suffer from (myself included)

    You are arguing with what you think the other person is saying instead of arguing with what I’m actually writing.

    No offense taken on my end. My post came off as more abrasive than I intended. I had typed out a response to this earlier but my phone died.. so I’m just gonna hop on to what Bruce said as it’s what I meant but worded much better.

  98. GMB3 says:

    Is anyone else concerned with how we have played lately? Honestly since drai and McDavid went on this year last couple of weeks it seems like we’ve been outplayed in lots of the games. Haven’t really taken the boots to anyone

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Freidman predicts a “wild trade market this summer”

    https://www.fanragsports.com/news/friedman-predicts-wild-trade-market-season/

    This is Chris Nichols transcribing what Elliotte said on Toronto’s TSN 1050 this morning.

  100. Jethro Tull says:

    GMB3,

    7-1, 7-1, 7-4, 4-1, 2-0, 2-0.

    Yep. We suck.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    season not played: Little early to come to that conclusion there champ.

    There is always a bigger picture Darcy.

    Thank for coming down on high and setting me straight.

    I can’t wait for the next time your grace me with your widsom.

  102. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    The Devils need 5 points in the next six games to become the best team Taylor Hall has ever played for.

    Pray for him.

    Oh Taytay, tough luck buddy! Shouldn’t have sprayed Dallas! 😉

  103. digger50 says:

    ibleedoil:
    Lowetide,

    I look forward to those blog posts, LT. I think it was unfair for me to base my feedback on that one line from your intro today (we are both essentially saying the same thing – this run is amazing, enjoy!). My only additional point is that although criticism is warranted, no doubt, there is way more positive than negative. We had a great year andgames areactually enjoyable to watch. With 3 or minutes left in the game last night, this team (as a whole) had done enough to convince me that we’re going to be able to hold the lead and take the 2 points. VS SJ!

    I’d love to hear more about the many infamous streaks we’ve exorcised this year (we actually won games against MN). There is a lot to celebrate, other than 97 and 33.On another note, it would be great to get a basic rundown on how playoff matches up are decided for R1. Unsuprisingly, NHL.com does a rather poor job in explaining clearly. It’s going to be a fun April.

    Your enthusiasm is awesome!

    I think the road to the cup is via a continuous improvement model. And that being you should always have a critical eye, look for holes, look for ways to improve. Feedback should go to all levels of course and that includes Connor regardless of how many points he gets.

    Of course we already know this, I just mention it can be misinterpreted as negativity. I’m positive on the team, but I enjoy discussing potential areas of weakness, strengths and how to keep getting better.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: After his 6th season (Hall is in his 7th) Dionne was at 469 GP so close enough. He was also 2nd in the league scoring race after finishing 3rd previously, led the league in shots, & was widely considered to be one of the best players in the game.

    Taylor Hall is a very good player but he is not at that level.

    Dionne’s best seasons were still ahead of him at that point. Let’s hope for Hall’s sake the same is true for him, but from my couch he appears to be spinning his wheels a bit at this point.

    I’d still want to see if Taylor plays another 12 seasons like Marcel did to come to a conclusion if he’s in the top 100 of all time.

    I agree that Hall isn’t in the same category as Dionne in terms of points.

  105. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Freidman predicts a “wild trade market this summer”

    https://www.fanragsports.com/news/friedman-predicts-wild-trade-market-season/

    This is Chris Nichols transcribing what Elliotte said on Toronto’s TSN 1050 this morning.

    Can see that. Unprotected players can be traded to other teams, dealt to Vegas, protected by dealing another player to Vegas, claimed and held by Vegas, claimed and flipped to those other teams. That’s a lot of phone calls.

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ibleedoil,

    I think its okay if we take some time to lay down the pitchforks and appreciate the team for who they are.

    No one is stopping you from doing what you want.

    You call for people to “lay down the pitchforks” which when analyzing the game and finding what could be better is how they consume and enjoy hockey.

    So you are telling people to stop enjoying and consuming hockey in the way they enjoy and consume hockey.

    I enjoy the team for what it is.

    Elite with McDavid on the ice, medicore for when he’s not and with a top 10 goalie.

    If you don’t think that those of use who point out these flaws and debate how to fix them (or if they’re even flaws) don’t enjoy the game, that’s where you’re mistake is.

    Most of us are enjoying it immensely. 10 years of darkness and now time for playoff fun.

    Doesn’t mean we’ll change how we enjoy and consume hockey though.

  107. digger50 says:

    Chiarrelli is in on a lot of trade conversations. However when he comes back and says “I like our team is it stands and want to see what they can do” is a half truth. Of course he likes the team but he’s still interested in improving. Just means he struck out.

  108. spoiler says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Where’s that quote from, Kinger?

  109. russ99 says:

    Last night was a good example when shot metrics don’t tell the whole story.

    The Sharks did outshoot us by a wide margin, but we kept them from getting a ton of high danger chances.

    Quality, not quantity.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    classict,

    RexLibris,

    That makes sense.

    Thanks for posting that.

    (re: Dom’s metric and predictions)

  111. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    ibleedoil,

    I think its okay if we take some time to lay down the pitchforks and appreciate the team for who they are.

    No one is stopping you from doing what you want.

    You call for people to “lay down the pitchforks” which when analyzing the game and finding what could be better is how they consume and enjoy hockey.

    So you are telling people to stop enjoying and consuming hockey in the way they enjoy and consume hockey.

    I enjoy the team for what it is.

    Elite with McDavid on the ice, medicore for when he’s not and with a top 10 goalie.

    If you don’t think that those of use who point out these flaws and debate how to fix them (or if they’re even flaws) don’t enjoy the game, that’s where you’re mistake is.

    Most of us are enjoying it immensely.10 years of darkness and now time for playoff fun.

    Doesn’t mean we’ll change how we enjoy and consume hockey though.

    There will be plenty of time in the offseason to analyze, second guess and poke holes in teams/players.

    For me, we’ve done what we needed to do, all else is gravy, so I’m going to enjoy the ride.

    But I see your point – 10 years is a long time to deal with sucky hockey, poor players, ineffective coaching and mismanagement. Some habits die a bit hard.

  112. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    vishcosity,

    Thanks Vish

  113. spoiler says:

    spoiler:
    kinger_OIL,

    Where’s that quote from, Kinger?

    Never mind, I see the npanciroli link higher in the thread.

  114. kinger_OIL says:

    spoiler,

    From NPANCIROLI’s post a little further up: Chia says exactly what I said a few times about the value of Larsson being analogous to the value of Blind-side tackle.

    – I went further saying stats figured out the value of the blind-side tackles in NFL, and we are stuck with primitive stats that some use to declare the trade a “loss”, because Hall is a “driver”, and Larsson a good not great D: and I disagreed.

    – I swear, Chia read Lowetide, and stole my idea!

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/terry-jones-chiarelli-looks-back-on-what-will-be-for-the-oilers

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who,

    McDavid certainly needs a shooter, but I don’t think it has to be a righty. That is what Maroon has excelled at this year. He drives hard to the net and he shoots the puck when he gets a chance.
    My version of the lines would go something like this. Keep in mind I am only using the current roster and will start with the third line.

    I like Maroon up there and would leave him there too.

    I suggested “RHS” because of the LH and RH dynamic in terms of passing and shooting.

    Maroon’s goals are usually around the goal mouth, whereas a true “shooter” would be a bit further away in the “soft” area of the ice between the dot and the net.

    The LH-RH dynamic allows for shots to be quicker and easier for the passer to put into the shooting area. Its tougher when the players are same handed.

    Also

    I agree with your lines and the reasoning of them.

    I think McLellan ran exactly those lines for a few games earlier this year.

    67-93-44 have 106 minutes together this year. 50.8% CF and 66.7% GF (4-2)
    27-29-42 have 40 minutes together this year 41.3% CF and 50% GF (1-1)
    19-97-14 have 138 minutes together this year 55.8% CF and 64.3% GF (9-5)

    I know that the 93 line was against the toughs so the 50.8% is quite good.

    All 3 of 27-29-42 are better today than when that line was tried at the beginning of the year so I’d expect better from them.

    19-97-14 is the most successful Oilers line this year in terms of GoalsFor/60.

  116. godot10 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    npanciroli,

    Chia says:

    “I’ll use a football analogy about it. Teams have successful running backs that come and go. You can replace them. But the guys who get drafted the highest are the offensive left tackles,” said Chiarelli said of most quarterbacks’ blind side.. “You never hear about these guys. But look at any championship team, they always have a strong left side of the offensive line.

    But it is not true anymore. Highly drafted left tackles have been busting regularly lately because of the change in the college game with the spread offense. Left tackles ARE critical, but it is getting so that they can no longer be drafted high safely. One is going to have to draft them lower and develop them.

    But then practice time in-season and out-of-season was cut back dramatically during the last CBA agreement, and developing offensive linemen at the pro level has been significantly impacted, because the offensive line needs actual reps more than any other position.

    Offensive linemen, even bad ones, thus, made out like bandits during free agency last month.

    “Edge rushers are the new left tackles high in the draft”.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GMB3: Maybe so, but he has had a tough time staying healthy, he’s had 2/3 really good years but his offensive production hasn’t be at the top level other then that. Lots of guys have several really good years and that’s all. He’s a very good player but in my opinion he lacks some of the high end finishing ability that the best players have. Your right that things could change but I’ve read countless times on this blog that most guys offensive production dips after they turn 26, so I don’t think the odds are in his favour. Dionne was a top 6-7 scorer in the NHL 7 or 8 times iirc

    That’s all fair.

    Hall’s production hasn’t recovered since his knee injury and it might never. Especially if Zajac and Palmeri are the best NJD can give him to help.

    I just thought that we have Dionne’s whole career to examine, and we’re probably not halfway through Hall’s yet so that was bit premature (and read very snarky)

    Sorry about the champ thing. I was snarky too.

  118. classict says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    Edmonton’s most likely second round (if they get SJ) is Anaheim, and then Chicago in the third. I don’t think that’s a big enough difference (compared to NYR/MTL, followed by the top metro team) to make up for the disadvantage in the first round.

    At that point both the Oilers and Leafs are underdogs, the amount that they’re underdogs is negligible compared to (his model) giving the leafs 55% odds in round one and the Oilers 45% odds in round one. The end result only gives the Leafs 1% better odds to win the cup.

    That’s not to say the model he uses is perfect. I don’t think the Sens are as big of underdogs as he predicts. If that match up was changed 50/50 I imagine the Leafs probably have the same cup odds as the Oilers, or lower. (or if you think the Oil are closer to 50/50 with the Sharks)

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    fifthcartel:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is why Spencer Foo interests me. NCAA free agent who had a good 22-year old season. RH RW, that I *think* skates well.

    Peter is paying attention to the holes in the org.

    Grabbing lots of RHD too.

    I don’t agree with everything he’s done, but he’s best GM here since Sather.

    Lowe was close until he starting “chasing it” in 07, but he also damn near kept the 06 team out of the playoffs for want of a goalie.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GMB3: No offense taken on my end. My post came off as more abrasive than I intended. I had typed out a response to this earlier but my phone died.. so I’m just gonna hop on to what Bruce said as it’s what I meant but worded much better.

    I appreciate that, thank you.

  121. norm_klassen says:

    Just my opinion but the days of pure shooting into the net from set ups are over. its more like converge on the goalie amd score or deflect the puck. Getting rebounds and second and third opportunities are the norm. the havoc mcdavid creates gives maroon opportunity every game..
    Thats where the goals are scored.

  122. commonfan14 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I suggested “RHS” because of the LH and RH dynamic in terms of passing and shooting.
    Maroon’s goals are usually around the goal mouth, whereas a true “shooter” would be a bit further away in the “soft” area of the ice between the dot and the net.

    Hard to imagine a better fit than Laine.

    You’d think I’d be incapable of being bitter about the draft lottery system after the McDavid win, but turns out I am very greedy.

  123. godot10 says:

    commonfan14: Larsson the Game Manager.

    Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are the best game managers ever. Both throw away more balls to avoid a negative play than “average” quarterbacks. Elite quarterbacks hate negative plays, and try avoiding them like the plague.

    No negative plays was how the Patriots were able to fashion both comebacks against Seattle and Atlanta. Don’t force anything. Take what they give you.

  124. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OF17,

    As per Matty in today’s Sun, Pitlick is back skating “but only lightly. He won’t be back this season.”

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Last night was a good example when shot metrics don’t tell the whole story.

    The Sharks did outshoot us by a wide margin, but we kept them from getting a ton of high danger chances.

    Quality, not quantity.

    According to Natural stat trick in last night’s game:

    Oilers had 45% of the corsis (31-42)
    Oilers had 39% of the scoring chances (21-33)
    Oilers had 40% of the high danger scoring chances (10-15)

    That doesn’t look like they kept SJS’ quality down.

  126. kinger_OIL says:

    godot10,

    – I don’t think we disagree. My point was always that comparing the value of a “high-scoring” winger to a “not great RHD”, you are for sure going to conclude that it was a bad trade

    – But just like in football, there was and continues to be an evolution on the value and impact of players in different positions, that’s why perhaps Larsson fetched Hall. And Chia used that analogy.

    – I’m not saying Larsson = blind-side-tackle, nor was Chia: he just drew the analogy (I think).

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    N64: Can see that. Unprotected players can be traded to other teams, dealt to Vegas, protected by dealing another player to Vegas, claimed and held by Vegas, claimed and flipped to those other teams. That’s a lot of phone calls.

    I want Peter to grab one of Pysyk, Petrovic or Demers from FLA (in that order) via McPhee. At minimum 2 of them will be exposed.

  128. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    McDavid certainly needs a shooter, but I don’t think it has to be a righty. That is what Maroon has excelled at this year. He drives hard to the net and he shoots the puck when he gets a chance.
    My version of the lines would go something like this. Keep in mind I am only using the current roster and will start with the third line.

    I like Maroon up there and would leave him there too.

    I suggested “RHS” because of the LH and RH dynamic in terms of passing and shooting.

    Maroon’s goals are usually around the goal mouth, whereas a true “shooter” would be a bit further away in the “soft” area of the ice between the dot and the net.

    The LH-RH dynamic allows for shots to be quicker and easier for the passer to put into the shooting area.Its tougher when the players are same handed.

    Also

    I agree with your lines and the reasoning of them.

    I think McLellan ran exactly those lines for a few games earlier this year.

    67-93-44 have 106 minutes together this year.50.8% CF and 66.7% GF (4-2)
    27-29-42 have 40 minutes together this year41.3% CF and 50% GF (1-1)
    19-97-14 have 138 minutes together this year 55.8% CF and 64.3% GF (9-5)

    I know that the 93 line was against the toughs so the 50.8% is quite good.

    All 3 of 27-29-42 are better today than when that line was tried at the beginning of the year so I’d expect better from them.

    19-97-14 is the most successful Oilers line this year in terms of GoalsFor/60.

    How many goals would the speedy Michael Grabner score on Connor’s right wing. Miles to go but can NYR protect this guy?

  129. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s all fair.

    Hall’s production hasn’t recovered since his knee injury and it might never.Especially if Zajac and Palmeri are the best NJD can give him to help.

    I just thought that we have Dionne’s whole career to examine, and we’re probably not halfway through Hall’s yet so that was bit premature (and read very snarky)

    Sorry about the champ thing.I was snarky too.

    There is some evidence that Hall’s two big seasons are outliers/lucky.

    He was running a crazy high individual points percentage in both seasons. 94 and 98%. That’s at least ten points higher than even superstar level players can be expected to maintain or a regular basis.

    McDavid has an 82% this season and he’s on another level as a river pusher compared to Hall.

    Hall’s career is looking very Jeff Carter without the defensive play outside of his outlier seasons.

  130. Richard S.S. says:

    Right now, the Oilers control their own destiny. If they beat Anaheim tomorrow, they control the tie-breaker with a 3-2 series result and lead the Division by one point. At that point they just need equal points to stay in First. If they lose, they are three points back, with just four to play.

    Regardless of that, beating San Jose at San Jose gives the Oilers control of the tie-breaker with a 3-2 series result. It’s like I said, the Oilers control their own destiny.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    commonfan14: Hard to imagine a better fit than Laine.

    You’d think I’d be incapable of being bitter about the draft lottery system after the McDavid win, but turns out I am very greedy.

    You could tell that Chiarelli had mentally already taken Laine in the draft in his interviews after the lottery.

    Wasn’t “Tim Murray not getting McDavid” level of disappointed, but he could tell he wasn’t happy to be out of the top 3.

    Then JP fell and it all came together.

    That kid’s a player.

    Not Laine level of shooting, but he’ll be a key cog in the top 6 for 10+ years imo.

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99: There will be plenty of time in the offseason to analyze, second guess and poke holes in teams/players.

    For me, we’ve done what we needed to do, all else is gravy, so I’m going to enjoy the ride.

    But I see your point – 10 years is a long time to deal with sucky hockey, poor players, ineffective coaching and mismanagement. Some habits die a bit hard.

    But you missed the most important part.

    Analyzing and grinding numbers is fun to me.

    Honestly.

    I love the games too and enjoy the wins, even when they don’t deserve them.

    I’M HAVING FUN GODDAMMNN IT!!

  133. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: According to Natural stat trick in last night’s game:

    Oilers had 45% of the corsis (31-42)
    Oilers had 39% of the scoring chances (21-33)
    Oilers had 40% of the high danger scoring chances (10-15)

    That doesn’t look like they kept SJS’ quality down.

    Oilers had two breakaways. I don’t remember the Sharks having one. Did they?

    Breakaways are the best scoring chance you can get in a hockey game. Probably 30-40% chance of a goal.

    So you might both be right. SJS may have edged the OIlers in number of chances, but the Oilers chances were higher quality which helps negates the inferior numbers.

  134. godot10 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    godot10,

    – I don’t think we disagree.My point was always that comparing the value of a “high-scoring” winger to a “not great RHD”, you are for sure going to conclude that it was a bad trade

    – But just like in football, there was and continues to be an evolution on the value and impact of players in different positions, that’s why perhaps Larsson fetched Hall.And Chia used that analogy.

    – I’m not saying Larsson = blind-side-tackle, nor was Chia: he just drew the analogy (I think).

    We agree on the importance of blind-side tackles. They used to be the safest picks high in the draft. They are now amongst the riskiest picks high in the draft.

  135. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: & here I was comparing Larsson to an nFL quarterback who’d throw the ball away on third and long rather than forcing the pass into double coverage. I’ll stand by that, but chia’s analogy is probably better.

    Classic Alex Smith!

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: How many goals would the speedy Michael Grabner score on Connor’s right wing.Miles to go but can NYR protect this guy?

    He’s a career 12.5% shooter and he’s shooting 17.1% this year.

    He’s also mostly played 4th line (NYR doesn’t run an “energy/gritty” 4th) so he’s had some easy comp.

    He’s also LH and the bin is pretty full on that side.

  137. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Has the age of darkness (the last 10 years) produced a highly analytical, evidence-based fan-base? I don’t hear this type of critical analysis from other fan-bases (maybe I’m in an echo chamber).

    Maybe we needed to properly understand ‘why’ our team has stunk for so long……? I’m seriously amazed by Oiler fans.

  138. Pouzar says:

    Scungilli: I didn’t see the Sharks as that dangerous last night.

    Me neither. But then again I was drooling lots.

  139. Spengler says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You could tell that Chiarelli had mentally already taken Laine in the draft in his interviews after the lottery.

    Wasn’t “Tim Murray not getting McDavid” level of disappointed, but he could tell he wasn’t happy to be out of the top 3.

    Then JP fell and it all came together.

    That kid’s a player.

    Not Laine level of shooting, but he’ll be a key cog in the top 6 for 10+ years imo.

    Miles to go with JP, to borrow a phrase. But the thing I was most impressed with in his time with the senior squad is he didn’t get caved in defensively. Some issues with coverage, and the game did move a bit – to a lot – quickly for him when attacking but he certainly wasn’t out of his depth. We’ve seen plenty of 18 year olds come into the team and running 5.8 and 6.2 cf%rel and ff%rel is beyond impressive.

    He’ll have a career. Whether that’s a star role or a stellar mid line player depends on the offensive skills catching up.

  140. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: But you missed the most important part.

    Analyzing and grinding numbers is fun to me.

    Honestly.

    I love the games too and enjoy the wins, even when they don’t deserve them.

    I’M HAVING FUN GODDAMMNN IT!!

    Clearly you’re lying.

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: There is some evidence that Hall’s two big seasons are outliers/lucky.

    He was running a crazy high individual points percentage in both seasons. 94 and 98%. That’s at least ten points higher than even superstar level players can be expected to maintain or a regular basis.

    McDavid has an 82% this season and he’s on another level as a river pusher compared to Hall.

    Hall’s career is looking very Jeff Carter without the defensive play outside of his outlier seasons.

    That’s fair in terms of his points.

    I’ve never compared Hall on even terms to McDavid. I don’t think anyone has.

    In terms of driving play Hall’s very consistent. (yes Kinger you can tell who drives play)

    Here’s the list of the top 1st Assist/60 producers over the last 4 years (including this one) which is a good stat for figuring out who is driving the goals:

    GETZLAF, RYAN 1.03
    KUZNETSOV, EVGENY 1.00
    CROSBY, SIDNEY 0.99
    HALL, TAYLOR 0.98
    WHEELER, BLAKE 0.95
    THORNTON, JOE 0.94

    Then in terms of driving goal share, here’s the list of top “Relative Goal Share (GF%)” over the same time period: (Team goal share on compared to team goal share off)

    JOE.PAVELSKI 14.29
    JAROMIR.JAGR 13.79
    TYLER.TOFFOLI 12.29
    TAYLOR.HALL 12.1
    NIKITA.KUCHEROV 11.25

    For a guy who always gets knocked for his lack of defensive play, he’s been outscored in one season out of his career since his rookie year while playing on perennial bottom feeders.

    Here’s his GF% compared to his team over his career:

    Player GF% OGF%
    TAYLOR.HALL 45.6 45.5
    TAYLOR.HALL 52.5 41.6
    TAYLOR.HALL 54.6 42.3
    TAYLOR.HALL 48.2 39.0
    TAYLOR.HALL 51.4 34.7
    TAYLOR.HALL 52.7 40.8
    TAYLOR.HALL 54.4 42.3

    That’s crazy.

    His one year he got outscored by 1.8% the rest of his team got outscored by 11%. Lordy.

    If he was a Leaf there would already be a statue of him next to Horton in front of their rink.

    So yes, I agree he’ll never be a high end point producer like Dionne, although he’s better than Carter imo and I like Carter a lot.

  142. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Peter is paying attention to the holes in the org.

    Grabbing lots of RHD too.

    I don’t agree with everything he’s done, but he’s best GM here since Sather.

    Lowe was close until he starting “chasing it” in 07, but he also damn near kept the 06 team out of the playoffs for want of a goalie.

    This is basically how I feel re: Chiarelli.

    The Oilers should have a good rep with college players. They’ve given a lot of them playing time, including Arcobello, Benning, Caggiula, Oesterle.

  143. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: Clearly you’re lying.

    Something something doth protesting too much.

  144. BONE207 says:

    RexLibris:
    I had posted my SJS/EDM officiating review from Dec yesterday before the game.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/02/officiating-recap-san-jose-sharks-dec-23/

    In that game Braun was one to watch as he was tasked with handling McDavid and approached it by trying to take a physical angle. He committed 7 infractions and was penalized twice (a hook and a hold), so you can debate the effectiveness of that strategy.

    Vlasic/Braun is the most likely defensive pair McDavid’s line sees if they meet in the playoffs and Braun is entirely willing to be a dirty no-good sonofagun.

    That said, it does not appear that McDavid is particularly unnerved by that approach, so in my opinion what it may come down to is the latitude given and priorities made by the officials.

    They could hold to a standard rate of call, which is to say that they’ll ding a team for about every 5th infraction and then try to even up the calls accordingly (which seems to be the common approach now) or they could call a game on a more distinctively relative basis, where they call a team on every 5th infraction but don’t try to even them up, so if a team wants to push the envelope they will be punished accordingly, regardless of what the other team does.

    That is my preferred approach, but one that I’ve witnessed rarely.

    Happened to LAK last year in their series with SJS.

    The refs began by giving LA the benefit of the doubt on nearly every call, letting them cross-check Pavelski three or four times on a single zone-possession without penalty.

    SJS fought through it, took a 2-1 series lead, and then it was like a switch went off and the refs started calling penalties against the Kings the way they did here the other night (for instance, McNabb’s roughing call – on Pouliot, no less – that, in previous seasons, would have often gone without notice).

    I’d almost welcome an EDM/CGY series if only to hear a hue and cry from Flames fans about every call that went against them because of their imagined Wideman Curse. This might be the 1st round series I review, if I decide to do it again.

    Great work Rex…interesting stuff and that’s one of the things that make this blog (hockey poetry?) the place of choice on a daily basis for so many of us. I swear to Gord…I surf porn so much less now.

  145. OF17 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OF17,

    As per Matty in today’s Sun, Pitlick is back skating “but only lightly. He won’t be back this season.”

    Good to know. Thanks.

  146. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I want Peter to grab one of Pysyk, Petrovic or Demers from FLA (in that order) via McPhee.At minimum 2 of them will be exposed.

    If he were able to snag two of those three, I think our summer motto would be “START THE CAR!”

  147. RexLibris says:

    BONE207,

    Thanks. Glad it was of interest. 🙂

  148. BONE207 says:

    Chachi: I remember Dionne as a fairly chubby guy, even by 1980s athletic standards. Maybe he was more like the Buddha.

    Could you imaging Connor having a smoke or two the way Lafleur used to between periods. Chubby is Kessel now. But if you have the lungs to make the body work, good on ya. Besides, for a while they were saying that some guys are too cut and don’t have enough fat for padding thus involved in more injuries. Look at me…No injuries for a couple years now. I think it works!!!

  149. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’M HAVING FUN GODDAMMNN IT!!

    Yes. Exhibit A right there.

    Yelling, throbbing neck veins, bulging eyes.

    Time of his life. You bet.

  150. Justthestatsman says:

    Bank Shot: Oilers had two breakaways. I don’t remember the Sharks having one. Did they?

    Breakaways are the best scoring chance you can get in a hockey game. Probably 30-40% chance of a goal.

    So you might both be right. SJS may have edged the OIlers in number of chances, but the Oilers chances were higher quality which helps negates the inferior numbers.

    I remember a botched 2 on 0 by SJ. Probably shouldn’t count on them to miss those every time!

  151. BONE207 says:

    RexLibris: Buffalo’s regrets should probably begin with hiring Tim Murray and progress from there. Interesting that both Reinhart AND Bennett have had poor seasons and, while I don’t know as much detail about Reinhart’s I can say in Bennett’s case, this is largely due to depth, support and deployment by the coach.

    Bennett was supposed to be getting shelter from Monahan but he didn’t progress well earlier this year and it forced Gulutzan into pushing Bennett around the roster. Right now I think he’s got Brouwer on one wing and maybe Bouma on the other. They’re shackling him to a parking meter and telling him to learn to fly.

    What the hell is a parking meter???

  152. Rocknrolla says:

    Bank Shot:oilers had 2 breakaways

    Marleau had a 2 man breakaway and missed.

  153. BONE207 says:

    Scungilli:

    This is my issue with Russell. He is a step up from a lot of guys they have used, but the Pavelski goal was a really poor play for a so called defensive veteran. And that heated things up a lot in giving them hope to end the game.

    That Pavelski goal was off a shot that was about a metre wide of the net and about a metre off the ice. Great deflection that one hopped its way through Talbot but he gets that 90% of the time. Can’t blame Russell for that. His shin pads are only so wide.

  154. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    So yes, I agree he’ll never be a high end point producer like Dionne, although he’s better than Carter imo and I like Carter a lot.

    I can understand if you prefer Hall to Carter. I see them as being peers, and clearly under the top tier of NHL forwards. Hall isn’t in the Getzlaf, Crosby, Thornton(past), Pavelski class despite being in a group with them in some metrics.

  155. BONE207 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    The Hockey News has their prediction on which Canadian teams have the best chance of winning the Cup.

    1. MTL
    2. TOR
    3. EDM
    4. CGY
    5. OTT

    That’s probably not that far off, but TOR ahead of EDM & CGY makes me raise a Spockian eyebrow

    Its based on some metrics by Dom Luszczyszyn.He’s a decent fancy stat analyst, but I don’t completely buy what he’s selling.

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/which-canadian-team-has-the-best-odds-of-taking-home-the-stanley-cup

    Next time on LT’s show, you have to pronounce his name in a tongue twister fashion.

  156. Bank Shot says:

    Justthestatsman: I remember a botched 2 on 0 by SJ.Probably shouldn’t count on them to miss those every time!

    I forgot about that one. Did they have any others of that quality?

  157. TheRage says:

    WE are 4-1 in our last five, and lost three points of ground on Anahiem during that time. Insane.

  158. BONE207 says:

    StixMalone: I’ll never forget the look on his face when we won the lottery. When interviewed he sounded completely like a man who lost his best friend, and not impressed he let his team tank. Not sure if he even wanted Eichel! Kind of a cheap consolation prize was what I got out of it….

    2 years out…he might be right. Eichel is having a great year and is plenty talented but…

  159. spoiler says:

    RexLibris: They’re shackling him to a parking meter and telling him to learn to fly.

    Hey! I can spot your subtle attempt at #propaganda from a mile away. You’re trying to influence the RE Band choice (and the Tory Leadership race), aren’t you? Probably a Washington Post reporter and CNN guest expert, I’m guessing.

    No more sneakiness, I’m watching you, Rex. The Ozark Mountain Daredevils will not be denied this summer!

  160. RexLibris says:

    BONE207: What the hell is a parking meter???

    Picture Mark Fistric but with better lateral movement.

  161. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    I’M HAVING FUN GODDAMMNN IT!!

    Do you have any numbers to back this up?

  162. spoiler says:

    Scungilli: This is my issue with Russell. He is a step up from a lot of guys they have used, but the Pavelski goal was a really poor play for a so called defensive veteran.

    You’re entitled to your opinion of course, but I can’t agree.

    I’m no Right-side Russell fan, but in no way do I blame him for that goal. That’s about as highlight-reel-worthy as a deflection gets.

  163. Pouzar says:

    Ryan Holt‏ @CondorsHolty 6m6 minutes ago
    More
    Gustavsson starts tonight. He’s appeared in 10 straight with tonight being his sixth straight start.

    In March: 5-3-0 | 1.82 | .939

    hmmmmm…this guy could be a good back up one day!

  164. Pescador says:

    Justthestatsman: I remember a botched 2 on 0 by SJ.Probably shouldn’t count on them to miss those every time!

    Followed immediately by a 4 on 1.

  165. RexLibris says:

    spoiler: Hey! I can spot your subtle attempt at #propaganda from a mile away.You’re trying to influence the RE Band choice (and the Tory Leadership race), aren’t you?Probably a Washington Post reporter and CNN guest expert, I’m guessing.

    No more sneakiness, I’m watching you, Rex.The Ozark Mountain Daredevils will not be denied this summer!

    That’s me, spreading #FakeAnalogies. 🙂

  166. Pescador says:

    BONE207: Could you imaging Connor having a smoke or two the way Lafleur used to between periods. Chubby is Kessel now. But if you have the lungs to make the body work, good on ya. Besides, for a while they were saying that some guys are too cut and don’t have enough fat for padding thus involved in more injuries. Look at me…No injuries for a couple years now.I think it works!!!

    Scientists are always flip flopping, smoking used to be healthy, chocolate and wine are now good for you. Sure I’m getting fat drinking beer & eating hotdogs, but my stress level has never been
    lower!

  167. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    McDavid certainly needs a shooter, but I don’t think it has to be a righty. That is what Maroon has excelled at this year. He drives hard to the net and he shoots the puck when he gets a chance.
    My version of the lines would go something like this. Keep in mind I am only using the current roster and will start with the third line.

    I like Maroon up there and would leave him there too.

    I suggested “RHS” because of the LH and RH dynamic in terms of passing and shooting.

    Maroon’s goals are usually around the goal mouth, whereas a true “shooter” would be a bit further away in the “soft” area of the ice between the dot and the net.

    The LH-RH dynamic allows for shots to be quicker and easier for the passer to put into the shooting area.Its tougher when the players are same handed.

    Also

    I agree with your lines and the reasoning of them.

    I think McLellan ran exactly those lines for a few games earlier this year.

    67-93-44 have 106 minutes together this year.50.8% CF and 66.7% GF (4-2)
    27-29-42 have 40 minutes together this year41.3% CF and 50% GF (1-1)
    19-97-14 have 138 minutes together this year 55.8% CF and 64.3% GF (9-5)

    I know that the 93 line was against the toughs so the 50.8% is quite good.

    All 3 of 27-29-42 are better today than when that line was tried at the beginning of the year so I’d expect better from them.

    19-97-14 is the most successful Oilers line this year in terms of GoalsFor/60.

    Well Shit. I don’t know how to respond to you when you agree with me.

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: Oilers had two breakaways. I don’t remember the Sharks having one. Did they?

    Breakaways are the best scoring chance you can get in a hockey game. Probably 30-40% chance of a goal.

    So you might both be right. SJS may have edged the OIlers in number of chances, but the Oilers chances were higher quality which helps negates the inferior numbers.

    Breakaways are about 25% SH iirc

    Look at the shot map for the game.

    SJs had more shots in the HD shooting area.

    2 breakaways doesn’t negate that.

  169. spoiler says:

    Pouzar:
    Ryan Holt‏ @CondorsHolty6m6 minutes ago
    MoreGustavsson starts tonight. He’s appeared in 10 straight with tonight being his sixth straight start.

    In March: 5-3-0 | 1.82 | .939

    hmmmmm…this guy could be a good back up one day!

    Somebody in the org. recognizes they might need him if there’s an unfortunate goaltending injury. This is hella smart IMO.

  170. SwedishPoster says:

    The big things for me last night was winning with only two lines going, McDavid looking like pure magic on a few plays, Talbot being solid and the second half of the first period where the team put the foot on the gas and just ran the show. They have spurts like that on occasion where the team is just jamming and the big positive is that those occasions are getting more frequent. And when this team is jamming they are looking really good.

    I don’t have much hope for a deep playoff run, too many unknowns in regards to how the guys with zero playoff experience will react, it’s a different beast than the regular season and some guys may very well cave. There are also a few too many players bound to have occasional lapses in their decisionmaking, including our two young offensive stars, and those are the kind of plays that kills you in the playoffs. The big benefit of vets have on younger guys is decisionmaking, when to make the safe play and when to take risks, if you swing too much in either direction it will kill you in tightly checked playoff games.
    The main reason I doubt this goes truly deep is that they still haven’t found an antidote to teams trapping / checking hard through the neutral zone. They still haven’t figured that one out and if the team comes into the playoffs swinging that’s what the big dogs will do, just suffocate the crap out of the neutral zone. Which so far has lead to bad dump ins and Connor, Drai, Ebs et al getting frustrated and trying to dangle through an ocean of sticks and bodies. McDavid sometimes successful as he’s a deity but for the team as a whole not a successful situation. If the team solves that tactical scheme, Cinderella warning. But I wouldn’t count on it at this point.

    Having said that, if I was a Western conference team I wouldn’t wanna face the Oil. In a playoff round this is a team that can really run the show. It’s a team on the upswing big time, both collectively and individually. They’re a much stronger side now than during the first half of the season. Connor has gone from one of the top players in the league to probably the best offensive player in the NHL, imo he’s added an extra gear for the last 20 games or so which is scary considering how good he was to start. Drai is obviously breaking out like the plague in the last few weeks. Klefbom has found an extra level offensively. Nurse in the last 5-6 games are looking more and more confident with the puck. Slepyshev has started to try more difficult plays and sometimes with success. There are a lot of flickering light bulbs on the roster about to come on combined with some big, strong vets who also seems to be heating up one at the time. That’s not a team I’d look forward to face despite some holes and limitations. Especially if Talbot keeps playing like a vezina nominee. And we all know how that new barn will sound like after a ten year golf hiatus.

    Either way. This will be fun.

    PLAYOFFS!!! PLAYOFFS!!!

  171. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: I can understand if you prefer Hall to Carter. I see them as being peers, and clearly under the top tier of NHL forwards. Hall isn’t in the Getzlaf, Crosby, Thornton(past), Pavelski class despite being in a group with them in some metrics.

    it’s funny.

    I can show a handful of the most important scoring metrics and how Hall is among the tip 10-15 in most of them and there’s a subset of Oilers fans who say”yeah but he doesn’t belong there”

    If he didn’t belong there, he wouldn’t be there.

    If Hall played for another team they’d take whatever Oiler who was high end, yet one they despised and say “he doesn’t belong in the same category as Hall”

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: Do you have any numbers to back this up?

    Joy/60 off the charts.

    Beers/60 are up there too (on vacation)

  173. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy v2.0: it’s funny.

    I can show a handful of the most important scoring metrics and how Hall is among the tip 10-15 in most of them and there’s a subset of Oilers fans who say”yeah but he doesn’t belong there”

    If he didn’t belong there, he wouldn’t be there.

    If Hall played for another team they’d take whatever Oiler who was high end, yet one they despised and say “he doesn’t belong in the same category as Hall”

    So what you’re saying is Hall’s goal song should be Sesame Street’s “One of These Things Is Not Like the Other…”?

  174. BONE207 says:

    Pouzar: Me neither. But then again I was drooling lots.

    You sir, are well hydrated!!!

  175. Scungilli says:

    It was mentioned hockey is more about dirty goals now, I don’t agree completely. Think a team has to be able to grind and get into the blue paint so that they can’t be simply boxed out. But with how tight some teams play I also think shooters are going to come back more.

    Especially if they size the goalies down. The Oilers have been lacking pure shooters forever, and that is what that need with so many skilled passers.

    Since we’re on football analogies it’s like being a able to run the ball; it keeps the defence honest , they can’t just hang back and focus on receivers.

    It’s like Connor being able to finish better. At first he played the puck on the ice. The goalie had to keep up with a guy coming in faster than he had ever seen, stickhandling faster at top speed faster than he’d seen. It was awesome but the league learns. Last game that shorty backhand one foot out shelf sent a statement that now he is expanding his arsenal. Now what do they do? Nothing but hope.

    Put a few true snipers in the mix with these centres and good luck everyone else. Go JP! It won’t be possible to key on one aspect and shut them down.

  176. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Breakaways are about 25% SH iirc

    Look at the shot map for the game.

    SJs had more shots in the HD shooting area.

    2 breakaways doesn’t negate that.

    It would help negate it.

    I found this link that says a breakaway is 25% like you stated and a different type of shot from the same location is 12%. Ditto for 2 on 1’s.

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/3/21/2062995/2-on-1s-breakaways-and-shootouts

    So it’s not really as simple as just counting up the shots based on location. If we want a completely accurate view of the game we’d have to add up the odds of every shot taken from the HD shooting areas taking into account breakaways, odd man rushes, defelctions, rebounds, etc.

  177. BONE207 says:

    RexLibris: Picture Mark Fistric but with better lateral movement.

    I think I can picture Jared Smithson more.

  178. BONE207 says:

    Pouzar:
    Ryan Holt‏ @CondorsHolty6m6 minutes ago
    MoreGustavsson starts tonight. He’s appeared in 10 straight with tonight being his sixth straight start.

    In March: 5-3-0 | 1.82 | .939

    hmmmmm…this guy could be a good back up one day!

    They have mirrored glass behind the net in Bakersfield don’t they?

  179. BONE207 says:

    Pescador: Scientists are always flip flopping, smoking used to be healthy, chocolate and wine are now good for you. Sure I’m getting fat drinking beer & eating hotdogs, but my stress level has never been
    lower!

    Hell, at this point in our lives, stress is a killer. Those hot dog eating contests have never killed anyone.

  180. BONE207 says:

    HEY…WHERE DID EVERYBODY GO???

  181. Pouzar says:

    BONE207:
    HEY…WHERE DID EVERYBODY GO???

    What day is it?

  182. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: it’s funny.

    I can show a handful of the most important scoring metrics and how Hall is among the tip 10-15 in most of them and there’s a subset of Oilers fans who say”yeah but he doesn’t belong there”

    If he didn’t belong there, he wouldn’t be there.

    If Hall played for another team they’d take whatever Oiler who was high end, yet one they despised and say “he doesn’t belong in the same category as Hall”

    The most important scoring metrics are boxcars.

    You just can’t put Taylor Hall in the same bracket as a guy like Getzlaf when Getzlaf consistently outperforms him in points year after year after year.

    One guy is clearly a class above.

  183. Bank Shot says:

    Scungilli:
    Put a few true snipers in the mix with these centres and good luck everyone else. Go JP! It won’t be possible to key on one aspect and shut them down.

    I think Iginla would be amazing in the Letestu PP role. Hopefully he comes to Edmonton for a year, as Calgary clearly doesn’t want him back. Turn your back on them Iggy!

  184. admiralmark says:

    I know he’s a left shot. But if I were GM for a day i’d move mountains to get Athanasiou on McDavids wing for next season.

  185. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: The most important scoring metrics are boxcars.

    You just can’t put Taylor Hall in the same bracket as a guy like Getzlaf when Getzlaf consistently outperforms him in points year after year after year.

    One guy is clearly a class above.

    I agree that boxcars are very important.

    I’ve come to divide boxcars into “5v5” and “5v4”

    The thought used to be that a player was either “good on the PP” or “not good on the PP”

    With all the historical data we have now though, we can see that “good on the PP” is usually more “plays a key position on a good PP”

    An excellent example of this Lucic.

    Here’s Lucic’s 5v4 points per 60 up until this year:

    Player Season P60
    MILAN.LUCIC 20072008 2.05
    MILAN.LUCIC 20082009 3.83
    MILAN.LUCIC 20102011 3.86
    MILAN.LUCIC 20112012 2.95
    MILAN.LUCIC 20122013 1.33
    MILAN.LUCIC 20132014 3.76
    MILAN.LUCIC 20142015 3.05
    MILAN.LUCIC 20152016 2.81

    Everyone would look at this and think “Lucic is not a good 5v4 player”

    Then look at this year:

    MILAN.LUCIC 20162017 6.32

    That’s double his career rate.

    Has Lucic suddenly discovered his inner power play demon? Did he “wake up”

    No, he’s playing in a key position on a very good power play.

    Player is the same.

    Also,

    5v5 scoring is more predictive of playoff scoring due to lack of 5v4 in the playoffs compared to the regular season.

    So overall box cars matter, but 5v5 matter more because they are less reliant on being in a good system than 5v4.

    To this end, here are the 5v5 pts/60 leaders over the last 4 years (including this one, 2000min +)

    CROSBY, SIDNEY 2.52
    BENN, JAMIE 2.48
    MALKIN, EVGENI 2.42
    TARASENKO, VLADIMIR 2.41
    KANE, PATRICK 2.39
    GETZLAF, RYAN 2.38
    SEGUIN, TYLER 2.36
    PASTRNAK, DAVID 2.23
    HALL, TAYLOR 2.23
    PALAT, ONDREJ 2.21
    PERRY, COREY 2.2
    VANEK, THOMAS 2.18
    HUDLER, JIRI 2.17
    STAMKOS, STEVEN 2.14
    PACIORETTY, MAX 2.14
    TAVARES, JOHN 2.13
    DUCHENE, MATT 2.12
    MARCHAND, BRAD 2.12
    WHEELER, BLAKE 2.11
    GAUDREAU, JOHNNY 2.11

    Not all are on the same level, but denying that any of these players don’t belong among the best in the NHL is simply sticking your head in the sand.

  186. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: pm

    Yes, this is a true statement about some fans and hard to understand. They just will not see Hall as an excellent player.

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