FARM WORKERS 2017

The Edmonton Oilers have owned a table in the front row of the draft every year of this decade, and still they need a giant helping hand from their AHL team. Consider Oscar Klefbom: Before he arrived as an NHL regular, he honed his skills and learned more consistency on the farm. For 57 wild Oklahoma nights, Oscar Klefbom roamed the mountains and the prairies, and endured the violent weather—plus learned to play NA pro defense.

How many current Oilers have played more than 50 games in the minors? Let’s make a list:

  1. Patrick Maroon 353
  2. Matt Hendricks 247
  3. Mark Letestu 191
  4. David Desharnais 183
  5. Eric Gryba 183
  6. Benoit Pouliot 146
  7. Jujhar Khaira 130
  8. Cam Talbot 116
  9. Andrej Sekera 94
  10. Adam Larsson 67
  11. Zack Kassian 66
  12. Anton Slepyshev 58
  13. Oscar Klefbom 57
  14. Jordan Eberle 54*
  15. Iiro Pakarinen 43
  16. Jesse Puljujarvi 33
  17. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 19*
  18. Kris Russell 14
  19. Darnell Nurse 13
  20. Leon Draisaitl 6
  21. Matt Benning 2
  22. Connor McDavid 0
  23. Milan Lucic 0
  24. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0
  25. Drake Caggiula 0

*Both men played AHL hockey during the lockout, and Eberle spent some time in the minors during his junior career (after the completion of the Regina Pats schedule).

I don’t think there’s a surprise name here, if anything one might be a little surprised that so many high picks have played a few games in the AHL. Either way, this little exercise drives home my overall point: NHL teams need the minor leagues, because those games in the AHL refine play, and iron out the errors of youth.

FARM WORKERS

Every April, I look back on the past season and compare it to Brian Conacher’s brilliant book and his description of minor league rosters 50 years ago.

  • Brian Conacher: As in other areas of modern society, hockeys teams too have their generation gaps. This situation stood out on the Rochester team in 1965 which consisted of three groups: the veterans (had all resigned themselves to making the best of their minor league hockey careers), the young ones (who have stars in their eyes and are in the AHL for just a little time, or so they think) and the group somewhere in between (these players kept hoping that a break would come their way and they might get their chance in the “big tent”).

Here is last year’s look and here we go.

  1. Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. Condors 2016-17: Bakersfield has employed three men 30 or over (Jonas Gustavsson, Ryan Hamilton, Kris Newbury) this season, and four players who are 29 (Mark Fayne, Mark Fraser, Brodie Dupont, Joel Reichlicz). Mark Fayne is a player who might be able to find a fit with an NHL team, and that’s partly because of the coming expansion. That said, this rule applies in my opinion.
  2. Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering. Condors 2016-17: There are great examples on the list above. Whereas men like Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse and Jesse Puljujarvi are going to spend very little time in the minors, Patrick Maroon and Benoit Pouliot took some time to find their way. These men can still be productive, but it’s going to take time. The 21 group is small this year, Greg Chase and Kyle Platzer are the most prominent names. The 22 group has some players who should have solid NHL careers but aren’t yet established: Anton Slepyshev, Jujhar Khaira and Griffin Reinhart are the names who come to mind. I think it’s fair to say all three are likely to have some success, but that doesn’t mean it will be Edmonton and it doesn’t mean it will be next season. The 23 group (Dillon Simpson, Laurent Brossoit, David Musil) and older (Jordan Oesterle) are more likely to be in a new town each fall, as they go from prospect to suspect and are replaced by new troops turning pro. Benoit Pouliot spent at least some time in the AHL in each of his first four pro seasons. It takes time for some players to refine their games, and for these men, finding a second NHL team that can use their skills is key. A good agent is a major element in finding that good fit, I would bet.
  3. If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble. The players who have graduated to useful NHL careers have at least played some NHL games by the end of their entry level deals. Condors 2016-17: Khaira, Slepyshev and Reinhart qualify as prospects of interest, and may be playing their final AHL games this season (until the later years of their respective careers). Greg Chase and Kyle Platzer are in real danger of failing this grade, and for a guy like Platzer (early fourth round) that’s a reasonably valuable pick that didn’t work out. Important to note that there is no pressure point until the end of the entry-level deal, so there is time for Platzer and Chase.
  4. Exceptions are college men. Playing 4 NCAA seasons means turning pro at 22, meaning a “late start” for some quality prospects. Condors 2016-17: Yeah, this remains for sure. Drake Caggiula skipped the AHL so far, and Matt Benning played just two AHL games. Nick Ellis is also in this conversation, and I think Jordan Oesterle will have an NHL career, although I doubt it will with the Oilers. Joey Laleggia is also in this category, with the added delay of playing a different position.
  5. A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division. Condors 2016-17: History tells us we’ll have our answers on men like Jujhar Khaira and Anton Slepyshev soon. The issue (imo) is about offense, and that’s why the scoring of Joey Laleggia as a forward is so interesting. If you take a long look at the resumes of the most promising current Condors (I will list Puljujarvi, Khaira, Slepyshev, Reinhart), the major issue is offense. Laleggia? He has scored 33, 16-10-26 since January 1 (as a comparison, Jesse Puljujarvi is 33, 11-14-25 in the AHL this year) and I that should earn him another pro contract and a long look in the fall. Offense is going to be the denver boot for some careers among current Condors, pretty sure.
  6. If we make a list of the minor league RFA’s each summer, we can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. That 50 man list gets a haircut every summer. A major haircut is coming this summer. Two RFA’s (Tyler Pitlick and Jordan Oesterle) turn into UFA’s because of NHL GP totals, and I bet Oesterle gets a Vegas contract or similar. I am hopeful about Pitlick, but he could go the same way. As for RFA’s we can be fairly certain about, expect new cities for Anton Lander, Henrik Samuelsson, Bogdan Yakimov, Jere Sallinen, David Musil (who is already gone but still on the 50-man), Zach Pochiro and Eetu Laurikanen. That’s seven RFA’s plus (I believe) Oesterle. Keepers? Jujhar Khaira, Iiro Pakarinen, Joey Laleggia, Griffin Reinhart, Dillon Simpson. That’s five keepers, and you might see the team cut bait on Pakarinen (but I doubt it).
  7. Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. I remember each of these men in the minors, and the one thing they did was improve offensively. Pisani arrived from college with a fairly complete toolkit, but didn’t score a bunch until year two AHL. Same with Chimera, and the ‘Hawks had confused Clearly so he needed a full AHL season after coming over. Current Condors who spiked offensively in year two? Joey Laleggia, Anton Slepyshev and Jujhar Khaira. That’s your list.
  8. For Rob Schremp fans, there’s exactly ONE pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton. Condors 16-17: If Leon had stayed a whole season on the farm, we could claim him as an example, but offense is too valuable. Chiarelli kept David Krejci on the farm for a time, he would be an example.
  9. The future NHLERS are……..Last year I named Griffin Reinhart, Jordan Oesterle, Jujhar Khaira and Anton Slepyshev. This year’s list is pretty close to the same, in order: Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Jujhar Khaira and Griffin Reinhart. Joey Laleggia should be mentioned here, Oilers have some interesting prospects now. Laurent Brossoit has made it, although it’s uncertain at what level.

SCORING LAST 10 GAMES

  • Patrick Maroon (10, 6-4-10); Connor McDavid (10, 6-13-19); Leon Draisaitl (10, 5-13-18)
  • Milan Lucic (10, 4-2-6); Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (10, 3-4-7); Jordan Eberle (10, 2-4-6)
  • Benoit Pouliot (10, 3-1-4); David Desharnais (10, 1-1-2); Zack Kassian (10, 1-3-4)
  • Drake Caggiula (9, 2-4-6); Mark Letestu (10, 2-1-3); Anton Slepyshev (6, 1-1-2)

Secondary scoring has improved over the last 10 games, that Nuge line is getting some good work done. It’ll take time for the verbal to match results, but encouraging all the same. Desharnais has only two points, but his linemates have improved offensively, so maybe we give him some credit for work in the offensive zone. Caggiula and Slepyshev should be playing ahead of other available options on 4line, if only because Jujhar Khaira’s injury has left him behind (a conditioning stint might be in order).

DEADLINE THOUGHTS

In speaking to Frank Seravalli and others, I’m comfortable implying Peter Chiarelli tried to get a goalie and aimed higher for his center, too. It sounds like the goalie was Jaroslav Halak, and that Garth Snow either upped the price late or pulled the chute altogether. Either way, no goalie.

I have no real evidence of this, but would guess the general manager knocked on doors and asked after Martin Hanzal and Brian Boyle. You read a lot of things leading up to the deadline, and I think both men were connected at one time or another (but I’m not going to sift through 10 miles of Al Gore to find it).

At some level, Peter Chiarelli must have felt (and he told Terry Jones as much) he had seen enough positives to let bet on this wild horse without too much tinkering. Balance is close, but he also has to be mindful that building a system needs a lot of assets.

I’ve been receiving some dm’s and emails about consternation over lack of deadline activity. Idea being (I think) Edmonton would be in a better position had PC aimed higher. I think it’s a difficult argument to make, because the team he left alone has done extremely well. Maybe some credit is due here. Thoughts?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A big morning, we are live at Northlands for the World Curling Championships all week. Make sure to tune in and hear me pronounce Gushue! 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. The race is coming down the stretch in the Pacific Division, who is going to win it? Plus McDavid clear Hart favorite?
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers rolling, what areas do they have to shore up, improve or tweak?
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue/The SuperFan. After a 25-game run of dwindling Corsi, the Oilers post a 60 percent possession game against the Anaheim Ducks. Fluke? Or something else?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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139 Responses to "FARM WORKERS 2017"

  1. admiralmark says:

    I get the feeling at the trade deadline he really didn’t feel this team was ultimately close enough to compete for the cup and thus saved some restraint for the Summer. I also think his thinking was we are going to find out exactly what we have in Ebs and Nuge. This is their final audition to solidify in his mind wether he can go forward and win with these 2 six million $$ players.

    Considering the way the team looked at the deadline + seeing the prices out there. I have no problem with what he did or didnt do. I also think it’s time for us to see if Ebs and Nuge have that extra gear for playoff hockey.

  2. Yeti says:

    admiralmark,

    I think you nailed it right there. Entirely agree.

  3. jm363561 says:

    Interesting that the top six names (and 10 of the top 11) on the AHL list were not drafted by the Oilers. Do we rush our young players, give up on them too soon, or draft so poorly they drop out of the system? Or is everything just fine?

    I always considered RNH was not NHL ready and the physical toll he paid in his first season has held him back. Nurse is another who seems to me to have done too much on-the-job training in the NHL. JP seems to be in the right place.

  4. dustrock says:

    admiralmark,

    I agree with this completely. Now was not the year to overpay.

    But I think it’s also important to mention the overall roster turnover in the last 2 years. I don’t think many teams in the NHL have gone through such a dramatic personnel change, and I can see how chemistry and systems take time.

    McLellan didn’t really get a chance to run a totally healthy lineup last year.

    How many players currently on the roster have been here more than 2 years? RNH, Eberle, Klefbom? Brossoit and Nurse technically.

  5. Opie says:

    We have been saying that the nuge line is coming on the entire second half of the season. Still not much to show for from my eyes, having watched every game … we wait I guess. #goil

  6. doritogrande says:

    If we’re counting Eberle and Nuge with asteriskes (really, is that proper?), then Adam Larsson should be as well. 33 AHL GP in 2012-13 after a full season in the NHL the year before.

  7. Bag of Pucks says:

    Man is it tough to score in the league this year.

    First glance at that Eberle G total (16) had me thinking, ‘that’s pathetic,’ but when you filter the numbers, he’s still #35 amongst NHL RWs this season for Gs.

    Patrick Eaves tied for #8th amongst RW with 30 snipes. Helluva of an in-season pickup for a 2nd rounder.

    I know us Oilers fans can hardly begrudge the lottery results, but every once and while, I’ll catch myself thinking about McDavid with Laine. Talk about Gretzky/Kurri all over again.

  8. anjinsan says:

    Regarding coaching up a Russian player…
    Slepyshev’s results are not what you’d think they should be.
    In Dallas, Nichushkin struggeld and bolted because he didn’t want to play for Ruff.
    After Krueger, Yak hasn’t done well in a systems approach.
    Sooooo…I’m wondering.
    I bet there is a cultural thing that happens in a significant percentage of talented Russian player’s minds when they translate tight systems coaching into what they are supposed to do, and as part of that translation they lose some offensive cutting edge from their games. Instead of fluidly switching into a fighter pilot mentality or feeling free when opportunity presents itself to break into high offense aggression they resist somewhat remain being the dutiful soldier in the Russian mind. If this is true, it behooves competitive edge coaches to spend the time it takes with talented Russians and hand-hold them if necessary through re-conceptualizing their games within NHL systems approaches. They wouldn’t be stunted and play below their talents and we’d see their Rooski-Pow!

  9. thatoneguy says:

    My personal theory regarding time spent in the AHL is that if a player is deemed not yet ready for the NHL when they turn pro or come to north america then that player should spend at least 100 games in the AHL/ECHL before they should be considered for full time NHL employment. This doesn’t mean that call-ups won’t ever be necessary but this gives the player a good chance to develop into the best version of themselves.

    Then if a player hasn’t proven themselves worthy of an NHL roster spot after 200 AHL/ECHL games it is unlikely they will ever get to that level and it is probably wise to give his spot on the 50 man to a younger player with more upside.

    There are exceptions to both of these of course but these are the trends you tend to see in the teams with the best player development (Detroit).

  10. frjohnk says:

    Yesterday I looked at our 3 lines 5 on 5. I would have looked at the 4th line, but all the revolving doors of wingers showed a below average 4th line.

    TOI
    LEON.DRAISAITL CONNOR.MCDAVID PATRICK.MAROON 499.27
    JORDAN.EBERLE MILAN.LUCIC RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 291.83
    DAVID.DESHARNAIS ZACK.KASSIAN BENOIT.POULIOT 113.43

    CF%
    LEON.DRAISAITL CONNOR.MCDAVID PATRICK.MAROON 52.75
    JORDAN.EBERLE MILAN.LUCIC RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 49.91
    DAVID.DESHARNAIS ZACK.KASSIAN BENOIT.POULIOT 45.67
    SF%
    LEON.DRAISAITL CONNOR.MCDAVID PATRICK.MAROON 54.15
    JORDAN.EBERLE MILAN.LUCIC RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 50.56
    DAVID.DESHARNAIS ZACK.KASSIAN BENOIT.POULIOT 46.02

    1st line does well in shot share. 2nd line breaks even. 3rd line not so good.

    SCF%
    LEON.DRAISAITL CONNOR.MCDAVID PATRICK.MAROON 62.36
    JORDAN.EBERLE MILAN.LUCIC RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 44.83
    DAVID.DESHARNAIS ZACK.KASSIAN BENOIT.POULIOT 44.12

    1st line is elite at getting the puck into the slot areas of the ice. The other two, no.

    Sh%
    LEON.DRAISAITL CONNOR.MCDAVID PATRICK.MAROON 10.95
    JORDAN.EBERLE MILAN.LUCIC RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 3.68
    DAVID.DESHARNAIS ZACK.KASSIAN BENOIT.POULIOT 11.54

    2nd line is having terrible luck right in shooting percentage.

    GF%
    LEON.DRAISAITL CONNOR.MCDAVID PATRICK.MAROON 60
    JORDAN.EBERLE MILAN.LUCIC RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 38.46
    DAVID.DESHARNAIS ZACK.KASSIAN BENOIT.POULIOT 66.67

    1st line is elite. No surprises. 2nd line getting their heads kicked in but that is due to unsustainable low shooting percentage. 3rd line is running a red hot PDO of 106.6!

    We will need more from the 2nd line.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    x-CHI 28
    x-MIN 21
    x-ANA 20
    x-EDM 19
    x-SJS 16
    x-STL 15
    x-CGY 13-1st wildcard
    x-NSH 12-2nd wildcard
    ————-
    LAK 3
    WPG 2
    DAL -4
    VAN -9
    ARI -12
    COL -33

    Looks like the top 3 in each division is pretty much set with both NSH and CGY being 3 back of STL and SJS respectively.

    A win coupled with a loss from the team you’re chasing is 2 pts in my version of the pts% standings so its not “done”, but we’re getting close with only 3 games left each for SJS, CGY and NSH and 4 left for STL.

    If Thornton is out or comes back at 75% or less and Couture is still out that’s the match up you want if you are an EDM fan imo.

    WC games tonight

    None.

  12. Bag of Pucks says:

    anjinsan:
    Regarding coaching up a Russian player…
    Slepyshev’s results are not what you’d think they should be.
    In Dallas, Nichushkin struggeld and bolted because he didn’t want to play for Ruff.
    After Krueger, Yak hasn’t done well in a systems approach.
    Sooooo…I’m wondering.
    I bet there is a cultural thing that happens in a significant percentage of talented Russian player’s minds when they translate tight systems coaching into what they are supposed to do, and as part of that translation they lose some offensive cutting edge from their games.Instead of fluidly switching into a fighter pilot mentality or feeling free when opportunity presents itself to break into high offense aggression they resist somewhat remain being the dutiful soldier in the Russian mind.If this is true, it behooves competitive edge coaches to spend the time it takes with talented Russians and hand-hold them if necessary through re-conceptualizing their games within NHL systems approaches.They wouldn’t be stunted and play below their talents and we’d see their Rooski-Pow!

    Culturally speaking, unquestioning adherence to rigidly structured political systems has not served the Russian people well, so I could certainly understand it if they struggle to find coaches like Ruff and Hitchcock palpable. There’s a lot of NA players that struggle with that, and they’re far more indoctrinated to toe the line from a systems pov these days.

    Ironically, in the CCCP days, structure was everything and their national team was an absolute powerhouse. Certainly didn’t hurt that they’d annexed some neighbouring territories with talented players as well. But free enterprise has been a struggle for Mother Russia, both on the ice and off.

    Yakupov is a real head scratcher because no one should know better what it would take to adjust to the league than his agent, Larionov, but it seems like the lad was getting too much advice from too many directions. Shame.

  13. Woogie63 says:

    admiralmark:
    I get the feeling at the trade deadline he really didn’t feel this team was ultimately close enough to compete for the cup and thus saved some restraint for the Summer. I also think his thinking was we are going to find out exactly what we have in Ebs and Nuge. This is their final audition to solidify in his mind wether he can go forward and win with these 2 six million $$ players.

    Considering the way the team looked at the deadline + seeing the prices out there. I have no problem with what he did or didnt do. I also think it’s time for us to see if Ebs and Nuge have that extra gear for playoff hockey.

    Can Nuge and Eberle evaluate in the play-offs. They are complimentary players on this team, and those type of players that are better in the play-offs are gold. If they don’t raise to the occasion, I think one or both will be traded away and the cap redistributed to Connor and Leon.

    is more important to understand than getting Hanzal for 25 games.

  14. Ribs says:

    Make sure to tune in and hear me pronounce Gushue!

    Oh good, I was hoping to be reminded of how to pronounce it so that I can get irritated at my TV screen every time they get it wrong. Damn you, Bruce. Haha.

  15. Scungilli says:

    jm363561:
    Interesting that the top six names (and 10 of the top 11) on the AHL list were not drafted by the Oilers. Do we rush our young players, give up on them too soon, or draft so poorly they drop out of the system? Or is everything just fine?

    I always considered RNH was not NHL ready and the physical toll he paid in his first season has held him back. Nurse is another who seems to me to have done too much on-the-job training in the NHL. JP seems to be in the right place.

    Nail and Nuge came from weaker draft years and although number ones probably did need more time. They have the skill that on a better managed team it may have worked better. Things were really dysfunctional, coaches were begin pushed to play them above the right level a la Renney.

    I remember Nuge pinballing off players. If he was going to be in the NHL it should have been with shelter and zero expectations of physical play until he matured physically.

  16. Ducey says:

    jm363561:
    Interesting that the top six names (and 10 of the top 11) on the AHL list were not drafted by the Oilers. Do we rush our young players, give up on them too soon, or draft so poorly they drop out of the system? Or is everything just fine?

    I always considered RNH was not NHL ready and the physical toll he paid in his first season has held him back. Nurse is another who seems to me to have done too much on-the-job training in the NHL. JP seems to be in the right place.

    I don’t know that Nuge’s problem is physical or injuries.

    He and Eberle have both seen their boxcars drop under TMac. I think its that they are being asked to play defensively more than they ever have before. Cheating for offense is not an option. Ideally they would have learned this in the minors.

    I’m interested to see whether they can continue to make to make the defensive adjustment and improve their offense. I have to keep reminding myself that Baby Nuge is still only 23 (turns 24 in a few weeks).

    Anyone know the background on Maroon? He doesn’t if the study well. He doesn’t appear to have player major junior (?) until he was drafted as a 19 yr old out of the North American Hockey League, likely as a puncher. Then played with the London Knights for a year.

    Seems to have a lot of similarities with our old friend Dustin Penner (big, good hands, history of being seen as lazy, disinterested and out of shape, coming out of no where).

    I know it would be blasphemy right now, but I wonder if Chia should be looking at moving him this summer. He could sell very high. I am worried Maroon will turn back into a pumpkin at some point – likely after getting a fat contract.

  17. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    WC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    x-CHI28
    x-MIN21
    x-ANA20
    x-EDM19
    x-SJS16
    x-STL15
    x-CGY13-1st wildcard
    x-NSH12-2nd wildcard
    ————-
    LAK3
    WPG2
    DAL-4
    VAN-9
    ARI-12
    COL-33

    Looks like the top 3 in each division is pretty much set with both NSH and CGY being 3 back of STL and SJS respectively.

    A win coupled with a loss from the team you’re chasing is 2 pts in my version of the pts% standings so its not “done”, but we’re getting close with only 3 games left each for SJS, CGY and NSH and 4 left for STL.

    If Thornton is out or comes back at 75% or less and Couture is still out that’s the match up you want if you are an EDM fan imo.

    WC games tonight

    None.

    Dustin Brown and Marian Gaborik will wear a heavier coat next winter!

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    x-WSH 34
    x-PIT 29
    x-CBJ 28
    x-MTL 21
    x-NYR 21-1st wildcard
    TOR 14
    OTT 14
    BOS 13-2nd wildcard
    ————
    TBY 10
    NYI 8
    CAR 6
    PHI 5
    FLA -1
    BUF -2
    DET -4
    NJD -10

    Can’t quite call it here but TBY is running out of road.

    With Karlsson, Methot and now Ceci hurt can OTT avoid sliding out? That’s 3 of their top 4 and Karlsson makes them go.

    TBY has 4 games left, OTT has 5.

    I think you can give BOS and TOR the nod, both teams playing well.

    I expect BOS to overtake OTT and battle with TOR for seeding among 2nd and 3rd in the Atlantic.

    EC games tonight:

    TOR at BUF – last time BUF beat them soundly about the head and genital regions. Wonder if it happens again?

    OTT at DET – OTT has no Dmen and DET is not good. That said, DET should take it. Expect the 0-3-2 trap from the Trappers from the opening faceoff.

    MTL at FLA – MTL is rolling and The Computer Boys are below .500. Yogi Berra isn’t making a good case to be a NHL back up for next year.

  19. Ribs says:

    Bag of Pucks: Patrick Eaves tied for #8th amongst RW with 30 snipes. Helluva of an in-season pickup for a 2nd rounder.

    Does anyone grow the large beard and become a worse player? Strange trend. Beards! Not just for playoffs any more!

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: Dustin Brown and Marian Gaborik will wear a heavier coat next winter!

    I can see them buying out Gaborik, but that Brown contract is stuck to them like glue for another few years yet.

    Here’s Gaborik’s buyout cap hits if they buy him out this summer:

    SEASON BUYOUT CAP HIT
    2017-18 $1,125,000
    2018-19 $1,625,000
    2019-20 $3,025,000
    2020-21 $3,125,000
    2021-22 $1,325,000
    2022-23 $1,325,000
    2023-24 $1,325,000
    2024-25 $1,325,000

    Here’s Brown’s if they buy him out this summer:

    SEASON BUYOUT CAP HIT
    2017-18 $1,075,000
    2018-19 $2,075,000
    2019-20 $2,075,000
    2020-21 $3,575,000
    2021-22 $3,575,000
    2022-23 $1,700,000
    2023-24 $1,700,000
    2024-25 $1,700,000
    2025-26 $1,700,000
    2026-27 $1,700,000

    Both stink on ice, but lordy Brown runs forever.

  21. N64 says:

    Current Ross projections based on PPG are:
    McDavid 99
    Kane 90
    Crosby 89

    Projected top 2:
    +8 Ducks: Flames, Hawks, Kings
    +7 Oilers: @Kings, @Sharks, @Canucks, Canucks

    Projected 3rds:
    +4 Sharks: Canucks, Oilers, Flames
    +3 Blues: Jets, @Panthers, @Hurricanes, Avalanche

    Projected WCs:
    +1 Flames: @Ducks, @Kings, @Sharks
    0 Preds: @Islanders, @Stars, @Jets

  22. Chachi says:

    frjohnk:
    Yesterday I looked at our 3 lines 5 on 5.I would have looked at the 4th line, but all the revolving doors of wingers showed a below average 4th line.

    TOI
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON499.27
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS291.83
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT113.43

    CF%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON52.75
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS49.91
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT45.67SF%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON54.15
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS50.56
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT46.02

    1st line does well in shot share.2nd line breaks even.3rd line not so good.

    SCF%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON62.36
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS44.83
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT44.12

    1st line is elite at getting the puck into the slot areas of the ice.The other two, no.

    Sh%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON10.95
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS3.68
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT11.54

    2nd line is having terrible luck right in shooting percentage.

    GF%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON60
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS38.46
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT66.67

    1st line is elite.No surprises.2nd line getting their heads kicked in but that is due to unsustainable low shooting percentage.3rd line is running a red hot PDO of 106.6!

    We will need more from the 2nd line.

    Interesting; the 2nd line is sawing-off at evens in 2 of the 3 indices you list. The Shooting percentage is ridiculously low, as you mention and if that ever normalizes the GF% would obviously rise quite a bit. How can you come to the conclusion that they are “getting their heads kicked in” from those numbers? I guess you mean they are getting their heads kicked in by puck luck?

  23. thatoneguy says:

    For an interesting comparison here are the AHL/ECHL games played (non-playoff) by players drafted an/or developed by the Detroit Red Wings before they became full time NHLers

    Tatar – 265
    Jensen – 225
    Sproul – 215
    Howard – 186
    Ouellet – 183
    Ericsson – 176
    Nyquist – 137
    Mantha – 132
    Helm – 122
    Sheahan – 110
    Abdelkader – 109
    Kronwall – 102
    Glendening – 99
    Mrazek – 90
    Athanasiou – 83
    Zetterberg, Dekyser, Larkin – 0

  24. Scungilli says:

    Ducey: I know it would be blasphemy right now, but I wonder if Chia should be looking at moving him this summer. He could sell very high. I am worried Maroon will turn back into a pumpkin at some point – likely after getting a fat contract.

    He’s a very big man who fights and can finish, the only reason he’s in the NHL with his mobility issues. He was also from what I’ve read the most skilled player on many of his teams. He has talent, if he could move he’d be a league top player. LT mentioned Maroon a few years ago as an AHL player of interest, you called it LT.

    McL said in a presser Maroon was doing great but mitigated that with mentioning his centre. They know who’s driving the bus. If Maroon wants to sign for 3 or 3.5M great. If he wants to be set up better financially for later he should go UFA.

  25. Bruce Wayne says:

    Not trading for Hanzel and Boyle is one of the best moves Chiarelli has made. Trading for rentals is a value losing proposition, over and over.

    The one exception is when you have a glaring weakness at an important position and can get a significant upgrade. Third line center isn’t that position.

  26. Scungilli says:

    Looking at the schedules I think the Oilers have to run the table to finish first. The Ducks only real worry is the Hawks. They should get 4 points and finish 103

  27. Pouzar says:

    Someone mentioned it in the last thread and I agree.
    I want no part of the Preds if that is possible. They scare me more than
    any team in the Pacific.

  28. bbf_iii says:

    Interesting article on Sportsnet highlighting the top 10 most drafted players from Cap Friendly’s expansion draft tool: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-expansion-draft-top-10-capfriendly-tool-vegas-golden-knights-silfverberg-murray-brodin-gabner-yakupov-subban/

    Yakupov is in there, and I am sympathetic to the “high risk/high reward” approach for Vegas.

    Other expansion note outside of this article: Justin Faulk is currently the only Carolina Hurricane D who meets the exposure requirements. They could sign Dahlbeck or Tennyson to make Faulk protectable, and it will be interesting to see if either of them get a bump in salary to make it worth their while.

  29. Pouzar says:

    Bob Stauffer‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer 58s58 seconds ago
    More
    Oilers practice today:
    Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Lucic-RNH-Eberle
    Pouliot-Desharnais-Kassian
    Caggiula-Letestu-Slepyshev

  30. Bruce Wayne says:

    Ducey:

    I know it would be blasphemy right now, but I wonder if Chia should be looking at moving him this summer. He could sell very high. I am worried Maroon will turn back into a pumpkin at some point – likely after getting a fat contract.

    Completely agree. Maroon is a nice player who has played very well this year. But you don’t pay for the past, you pay for the future, and the Oilers already have one overpaid LW they can’t get rid of.

    If you can get something nice and shiny for him this offseason you have to do it, because there is no way they can sign him to a long term deal.

    Just say no to long term contracts for players in their thirties who aren’t stars. And even then, be vary wary. The Kings are entering the desert and that’s even with getting absurdly lucky to get out from Mike Richards’ contract. Not only do they have the Brown and Gaborik problems, but Kopitar’s contract is an absolute killer.

    Brett Burns’ contract is also awful. Getzlaf and Perry are slowing down, Kesler has a bad contract.

    The Oilers are going to rule the Pacific by default.

  31. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I can see them buying out Gaborik, but that Brown contract is stuck to them like glue for another few years yet.

    Here’s Gaborik’s buyout cap hits if they buy him out this summer:

    SEASONBUYOUT CAP HIT
    2017-18$1,125,000
    2018-19$1,625,000
    2019-20$3,025,000
    2020-21$3,125,000
    2021-22$1,325,000
    2022-23$1,325,000
    2023-24$1,325,000
    2024-25$1,325,000

    Here’s Brown’s if they buy him out this summer:

    SEASONBUYOUT CAP HIT
    2017-18$1,075,000
    2018-19$2,075,000
    2019-20$2,075,000
    2020-21$3,575,000
    2021-22$3,575,000
    2022-23$1,700,000
    2023-24$1,700,000
    2024-25$1,700,000
    2025-26$1,700,000
    2026-27$1,700,000

    Both stink on ice, but lordy Brown runs forever.

    McKenzie sees ‘real hard evaluation’ coming for Los Angeles Kings

    https://www.fanragsports.com/news/mckenzie-sees-real-hard-evaluation-coming-los-angeles-kings/

  32. knighttown says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    WC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    x-CHI28
    x-MIN21
    x-ANA20
    x-EDM19
    x-SJS16
    x-STL15
    x-CGY13-1st wildcard
    x-NSH12-2nd wildcard
    ————-
    LAK3
    WPG2
    DAL-4
    VAN-9
    ARI-12
    COL-33

    Looks like the top 3 in each division is pretty much set with both NSH and CGY being 3 back of STL and SJS respectively.

    A win coupled with a loss from the team you’re chasing is 2 pts in my version of the pts% standings so its not “done”, but we’re getting close with only 3 games left each for SJS, CGY and NSH and 4 left for STL.

    If Thornton is out or comes back at 75% or less and Couture is still out that’s the match up you want if you are an EDM fan imo.

    WC games tonight

    None.

    Agreed on San Jose.

    My real worry is Nashville overtaking Calgary and us winning the division and having to deal with them.

    Their defense are mobile and fast enough to keep up with McDavid and avoid Lucic, Zach and Maroon. Their forwards are those slick little buggers like Arvidsson that confound Larsson and Klefbom and of course Gryba. Davidson would have been nice for that series.

    There would be no animosity, no war with Nashville, just clinical and disciplined hockey.

    We match up with San Jose very well.

    Anaheim and Calgary are a toss up but the hatred would be seething and I think that helps us.

  33. frjohnk says:

    Chachi: Interesting; the 2nd line is sawing-off at evens in 2 of the 3 indices you list. The Shooting percentage is ridiculously low, as you mention and if that ever normalizes the GF% would obviously rise quite a bit. How can you come to the conclusion that they are “getting their heads kicked in”from those numbers? I guess you mean they are getting their heads kicked in by puck luck?

    Yes, I meant goal share they are getting their heads in. If shooting percentage climbs ( cant go any lower can it?) they should do OK.

  34. Ronald Chevalier says:

    Personally I’m happy the Flames lost last night. As some others have stated, I also feel the Sharks is the best match up. Would love to See Calgary drop to the 2nd wildcard and play Chicago. As much as a battle of Alberta would be fantastic, seeing the Flames get stomped would be better!
    I also share Kingers optimism that this team can make some noise in the playoffs! Go Oil!!!

  35. Colieo87 says:

    Hey Lowetide, just finshed reading today awesome debate. Here is your thoughts:

    In speaking to Frank Seravalli and others, I’m comfortable implying Peter Chiarelli tried to get a goalie and aimed higher for his center, too. It sounds like the goalie was Jaroslav Halak, and that Garth Snow either upped the price late or pulled the chute altogether. Either way, no goalie.
    I have no real evidence of this, but would guess the general manager knocked on doors and asked after Martin Hanzal and Brian Boyle. You read a lot of things leading up to the deadline, and I think both men were connected at one time or another (but I’m not going to sift through 10 miles of Al Gore to find it).
    At some level, Peter Chiarelli must have felt (and he told Terry Jones as much) he had seen enough positives to let bet on this wild horse without too much tinkering. Balance is close, but he also has to be mindful that building a system needs a lot of assets.
    I’ve been receiving some dm’s and emails about consternation over lack of deadline activity. Idea being (I think) Edmonton would be in a better position had PC aimed higher. I think it’s a difficult argument to make, because the team he left alone has done extremely well. Maybe some credit is due here. Thoughts?

    I think this season is alot on structure, systems and actually playing defense first. Have you ever disscussed luck though? This season in a long time is the 1st i recall where we didnt have so many roster players injured and perhaps it has to due with depth but is our team playing smarter and not putting themselfs in vulnerable possitions? We had a nice season its long over due but what Im implying to the way you word things is safe bets? I think peter just got lucky this season on alot of things going right. Alot of ot points to tablot. But history serves as a reminder. When rollie got hurt in the playoffs and markiteen steped in got us to 7 with a lucky game 5 goal from pasisani. Luck its something that we never take into account eh!?

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Secondary scoring.

    I’m only looking at 5v5 scoring because special teams should be treated seperately.

    Especially as Lucic and Letestu play PP1 with McEverything

    Looking at the top 360 forwards in the NHL (4 lines x 30 teams) we get a decent approximation of “line scoring” (players with 450min+ 5v5 to avoid small sample issues)

    GF/60 of “lines”
    Line 1: 2.65 – 3.81 (players 1-90) – median 2.90
    Line 2: 2.29 – 2.65 (players 91-180) – median 2.47
    Line 3: 1.86 – 2.29 (players 181-270) – median 2.09
    Line 4 1.16 – 1.86 (plaeyrs 271-360) – median 1.66

    Its not perfect, but gives us a nice estimation of where the line in the sand is.

    Here’s the Oilers’ centers On Ice Goals For/60 since March 1st (trade deadline)

    EDM centers have been very stable since March 1 and work perfectly for line proxies.

    5v5 GF/60
    McDavid – 5.17 – just 78% above 1st line median……hahahaha
    RNH – 1.55 – below 4th line median….ouch
    Desharnais – 3.50 – above 1st line median…yay!
    Letestu – 0.96 – below the lower boundary for 4th line. Yeeeesh.

    So the secondary scoring 5v5 wise is coming from the 3rd line. At least its coming from somewhere.

    You can also make an argument that McDavid’s line is scoring enough to cover off 1st and 3rd lines. Ha!

    Before you want to set fire to 27-93-14 consider this.

    GF% since March 1st
    McDavid 65.5%
    RNH 55.5% (!!)
    Desharnais 60%
    Letestu 33%

    So while RNH isn’t scoring much, his opponents, who are top 6 players most of the time, are scoring less.

    That’s crucial to his, and his line’s role.

    To get a feel for “how they are playing” we can look at Expected Goals For/60 based on shot location and type. (does account for rush shots, but doesn’t separate breakaways or 2 on 1’s)

    McDavid 4.00 – Thank all the Gords for this amazing gift
    RNH 2.98 – not bad
    Desharnais – 2.75 not bad either
    Letestu – 2.24 – not bad either

    Looking at these made me want to check the “1st,2nd,3rd,4th” line xGF/60 so here they are:

    1st: 3.65 – 2.72 – Median 2.72
    2nd: 2.72 – 2.47 – Median 2.58
    3rd: 2.25 – 2.47 – Median 2.35
    4th: 2.25 – 1.63 – Median 2.09

    I think those pass the smell test. As you get lower in the line up you can argue that the xGF/60 > GF/60 due to skill of those doing the hockeying.

    Finally, since we looked at GF%, have to look at PDO

    PDO
    McDavid – 1069
    RNH – 1001
    Desharnais – 1041
    Letestu – 988

    Happy to see RNH is over 50%GF vs his comp and isn’t PDOing. Just need that line to cash more.

    I have no idea what McDavids’ “Expected PDO” will be long term, but its not 1069.

    3rd ilne is PDOing (as expected with the GF/60 and GF% numbers) and Letestu is a on the bad side of the leger, but not enough to excuse the 33% GF.

    If we look at McDavid’s Career ONSH% and Talbot’s Career SV% (both 5v5) we see:

    McDavid 10.48
    Talbot .9283

    So when McDavid is on the ice and Talbot is in goal 5v5 McDavid’s “Expected PDO” based on career averages is 1033.

    Awesome.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    knighttown: Agreed on San Jose.

    My real worry is Nashville overtaking Calgary and us winning the division and having to deal with them.

    Their defense are mobile and fast enough to keep up with McDavid and avoid Lucic, Zach and Maroon.Their forwards are those slick little buggers like Arvidsson that confound Larsson and Klefbom and of course Gryba.Davidson would have been nice for that series.

    There would be no animosity, no war with Nashville, just clinical and disciplined hockey.

    We match up with San Jose very well.

    Anaheim and Calgary are a toss up but the hatred would be seething and I think that helps us.

    Agreed all points.

    Always great to see you post KT.

    I expect your posts/60 to increase in the playoffs.

    Be clutch.

  38. Chachi says:

    frjohnk: Yes, I meant goal share they are getting their heads in.If shooting percentage climbs ( cant go any lower can it?) they should do OK.

    Agreed.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar:McKenzie sees ‘real hard evaluation’ coming for Los Angeles Kings
    https://www.fanragsports.com/news/mckenzie-sees-real-hard-evaluation-coming-los-angeles-kings/

    The astute decisions stopped in LA when Hextall left for PHI in 2014.

    Hmmmmmmmmm

  40. nvan97 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    As more study is done I’m curious to see if some teams can actually begin to consistently be above 1.00 PDO while others end up consistently below.

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    Yesterday I looked at our 3 lines 5 on 5.I would have looked at the 4th line, but all the revolving doors of wingers showed a below average 4th line.

    TOI
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON499.27
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS291.83
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT113.43

    CF%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON52.75
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS49.91
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT45.67SF%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON54.15
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS50.56
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT46.02

    1st line does well in shot share.2nd line breaks even.3rd line not so good.

    SCF%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON62.36
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS44.83
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT44.12

    1st line is elite at getting the puck into the slot areas of the ice.The other two, no.

    Sh%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON10.95
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS3.68
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT11.54

    2nd line is having terrible luck right in shooting percentage.

    GF%
    LEON.DRAISAITLCONNOR.MCDAVIDPATRICK.MAROON60
    JORDAN.EBERLEMILAN.LUCICRYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS38.46
    DAVID.DESHARNAISZACK.KASSIANBENOIT.POULIOT66.67

    1st line is elite.No surprises.2nd line getting their heads kicked in but that is due to unsustainable low shooting percentage.3rd line is running a red hot PDO of 106.6!

    We will need more from the 2nd line.

    Shit Padre, I honestly didn’t see this before I went off on my own tangent.

    Didn’t mean to mow your lawn sir.

    I expect forgiveness given your occupation though…..

  42. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Very interesting analysis.

    I can’t do this work. I appreciate those that do

  43. jm363561 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Man is it tough to score in the league this year.

    First glance at that Eberle G total (16) had me thinking, ‘that’s pathetic,’ but when you filter the numbers, he’s still #35 amongst NHL RWs this season for Gs.

    Patrick Eaves tied for #8th amongst RW with 30 snipes. Helluva of an in-season pickup for a 2nd rounder.

    I know us Oilers fans can hardly begrudge the lottery results, but every once and while, I’ll catch myself thinking about McDavid with Laine. Talk about Gretzky/Kurri all over again.

    ======

    Versteeg has 15 goals in 67 games. Sigh.

    Eb’s 16 goals might not be “pathetic” but at a cost of circa $375k each I doubt they are 35th on the value index.

    Interesting to see if they protect him.

  44. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    nvan97: McKenzie sees ‘real hard evaluation’ coming for Los Angeles Kings
    https://www.fanragsports.com/news/mckenzie-sees-real-hard-evaluation-coming-los-angeles-kings/

    I figured NYR’s current line up had an Expected PDO of about 1023 at one point this season.

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/808330949997903872

    Career SV% of the goalies and career SH% and then figure “expected goals” with each player’s shot vs career SH%.

    Mostly its goalies who drive PDO above or below 1000 on a team level..

    NYR seems to be loading up with shooters and I will re-visit it at the end of the year.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Very interesting analysis.

    I can’t do this work. I appreciate those that do

    Thanks.

    You can do it too if you know where to look.

    Its just aggregating results.

  46. Pouzar says:

    digger50:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Very interesting analysis.

    I can’t do this work. I appreciate those that do

    Indeed.

    *slow clap*

  47. frjohnk says:

    Next few comments I take a look at the top 4 D pairs in the Pacific division.

    This comment is shots against and shot share

    CA60
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 48.88
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 49.41
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 56.28
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 56.42
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 56.89
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 57.15
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 59.48
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 60.19

    while quite a bit of shot attempts happen against the Oilers goal when both D pairs are on the ice, shot attempts against or only part of the equation.
    CF%
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 56.7
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 55
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 52.15
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 49.68
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 48.33
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 47.43
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 46.15
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 45.31

    Klefbom and Larsson break even while Russell and Sekera get their heads caved in. Get used to seeing the Flames top pair with fantastic numbers.

    Some dont like corsi, so….

    SA60
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 24.1
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 25.01
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 25.96
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 28.75
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 28.84
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 29.6
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 30.26
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 30.39

    Sekere and Russell are better here, but its not only what you give up, its also what you can bring to the table

    SF%
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 58.28
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 56.99
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 52.01
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 51.05
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 48.19
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 48.01
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 47.73
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 47.07

    Klefbom and Larsson look good, Sekera and Russell are not too bad.

    But some dont like just shots

    Scoring ChancesAgainst60
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 6.44
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 6.6
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 6.94
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 7.67
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 8.14
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 8.52
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 9.03
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 10.1

    SCF%
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 57.71
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 57.67
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 54.79
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 52.63
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 52.44
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 51.04
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 50.68
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 50.13

    Both D pairs look good here.

    How about shot attempts from the high danger area?

    HDCA/60
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 7.14
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 8.74
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 10.03
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 10.42
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 10.85
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 11.28
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 12.16
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 12.2

    Lots of attempts against from the slot area when Klefbom and Larsson are on the ice. But again, its not what you only give up, what can you help bring to the table.

    HDCF%
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 60.5
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 57.6
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 52.4
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 50.2
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 52.3
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 50.35
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 50.5
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 49.06

    Both Oiler D pairs look good here.

    Here is one more stat that some use to calculate defensive play which is expected goals against. Which uses a weighted value for every shot taken that hits the net using location and type.

    xGA60
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 2.03
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 2.11
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 2.25
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 2.3
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 2.55
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 2.58
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 2.66
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 2.98

    When looking at shots and scoring chances, there is lots happening in the Oiler end when the two Swedes are on the ice, but for the most part, there is more happening in the other end. When Russell and Sekera are on the ice, they get out corsied, out shot , but it seems they keep more of the shot attempts to the outside and can break even or more when looking at scoring chance share. That is good.

  48. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Shit Padre, I honestly didn’t see this before I went off on my own tangent.

    Didn’t mean to mow your lawn sir.

    I expect forgiveness given your occupation though…..

    Its all good. I just read your stuff. Either we are both crazy, or both kinda right.

  49. frjohnk says:

    Continuing. This is goals against and goal share.

    GA60
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 1.25
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 1.37
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 1.41
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 1.85
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 2.12
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 2.22
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 2.31
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 2.48

    Its been mentioned that McLellan likes goal metrics, so not hard to see why he likes Sekera and Russell together here.
    GF%
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 68.75
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 67.19
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 60
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 54.95
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 53.93
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 53.19
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 48.53
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 45

    Both Oiler D pairs look good here.

    HighDangerGoalsAgainst/60
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 0.5
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 0.66
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 0.77
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 1.09
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 1.21
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 1.23
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 1.25
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 1.64

    There are more goals scored against from the high danger area when Larsson and Klefbom are on the ice compared to OVERALL goals scored against when Sekera and Russell!

    HighDangerGoalsFor%
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 72.2
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 65.5
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 61.1
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 55.5
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 54
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 49.8
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 47.8
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 43.75

    Sekera and Russell do well in the high danger goal share.. Klefbom and Larsson break even.

  50. knighttown says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Secondary scoring.

    I’m only looking at 5v5 scoring because special teams should be treated seperately.

    Especially as Lucic and Letestu play PP1 with McEverything

    Looking at the top 360 forwards in the NHL (4 lines x 30 teams) we get a decent approximation of “line scoring” (players with 450min+ 5v5 to avoid small sample issues)

    GF/60 of “lines”
    Line 1: 2.65 – 3.81 (players 1-90) – median 2.90
    Line 2:2.29 – 2.65 (players 91-180) – median 2.47
    Line 3: 1.86 – 2.29 (players 181-270) – median 2.09
    Line 4 1.16 – 1.86 (plaeyrs 271-360) – median 1.66

    Its not perfect, but gives us a nice estimation of where the line in the sand is.

    Here’s the Oilers’ centers On Ice Goals For/60 since March 1st (trade deadline)

    EDM centers have been very stable since March 1 and work perfectly for line proxies.

    5v5 GF/60
    McDavid– 5.17 – just 78% above 1st line median……hahahaha
    RNH – 1.55 – below 4th line median….ouch
    Desharnais – 3.50 – above 1st line median…yay!
    Letestu – 0.96 – below the lower boundary for 4th line.Yeeeesh.

    So the secondary scoring 5v5 wise is coming from the 3rd line.At least its coming from somewhere.

    You can also make an argument that McDavid’s line is scoring enough to cover off 1st and 3rd lines.Ha!

    Before you want to set fire to 27-93-14 consider this.

    GF% since March 1st
    McDavid 65.5%
    RNH 55.5% (!!)
    Desharnais 60%
    Letestu 33%

    So while RNH isn’t scoring much, his opponents, who are top 6 players most of the time, are scoring less.

    That’s crucial to his, and his line’s role.

    To get a feel for “how they are playing” we can look at Expected Goals For/60 based on shot location and type. (does account for rush shots, but doesn’t separate breakaways or 2 on 1’s)

    McDavid 4.00 – Thank all the Gords for this amazing gift
    RNH 2.98 – not bad
    Desharnais – 2.75 not bad either
    Letestu –2.24 – not bad either

    Looking at these made me want to check the “1st,2nd,3rd,4th” line xGF/60 so here they are:

    1st: 3.65 – 2.72 – Median 2.72
    2nd: 2.72 – 2.47 – Median 2.58
    3rd: 2.25 – 2.47 – Median 2.35
    4th: 2.25 – 1.63 – Median 2.09

    I think those pass the smell test.As you get lower in the line up you can argue that the xGF/60 > GF/60 due to skill of those doing the hockeying.

    Finally, since we looked at GF%, have to look at PDO

    PDO
    McDavid – 1069
    RNH – 1001
    Desharnais – 1041
    Letestu – 988

    Happy to see RNH is over 50%GFvs his comp and isn’t PDOing.Just need that line to cash more.

    I have no idea what McDavids’ “Expected PDO” will be long term, but its not 1069.

    3rd ilne is PDOing (as expected with the GF/60 and GF% numbers) and Letestu is a on the bad side of the leger, but not enough to excuse the 33% GF.

    If we look at McDavid’s Career ONSH% and Talbot’s Career SV% (both 5v5) we see:

    McDavid 10.48
    Talbot .9283

    So when McDavid is on the ice and Talbot is in goal 5v5 McDavid’s “Expected PDO” based on career averages is 1033.

    Awesome.

    My Gord that’s a good post. And the number walls are broken up by little bitsize explanations on what they mean to you.

    So to summarize, Connor McDavid is good at the hockeys?

  51. frjohnk says:

    Continuing.

    Offense from the D pairs. With this data set, I averaged the points when both players were on the ice per 60 minutes. For example, Martin gets a boost while Burns drops, but we see what the points per 60 this tandem produces while on the ice together.

    I took the top 100 D pairs in the league in time on ice ( which is 284 mins or greater) This was so I could get Nurse and Gryba into the data.

    PrimaryP/60
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 0.84
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 0.77
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 0.75
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 0.48
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 0.38
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 0.36
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 0.34
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 0.26

    Now when it comes to D tandems, Larsson and Klefbom are the 37th highest scoring D pair when looking at primary points/60. Sekera Russell are 55th highest scoring D pair.

    Points/60
    PAUL.MARTIN BRENT.BURNS 1.35
    MARK.GIORDANO DOUGIE.HAMILTON 1.14
    TJ.BRODIE MICHAEL.STONE 1.13
    ADAM.LARSSON OSCAR.KLEFBOM 0.69
    ANDREJ.SEKERA KRIS.RUSSELL 0.57
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC JUSTIN.BRAUN 0.57
    JOSH.MANSON HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 0.55
    CAM.FOWLER SAMI.VATANEN 0.53

    Klefbom and Larsson pairing are the 49th highest scoring D pair while Sekera Russell are 66th.

    As for Nurse Gryba, both metrics they are 89th in primary and 98th in total points. But it is a small data sample.
    ******************************************************************************************************

    Overall, when looking at all this data, I think we have a good top 4. No pair is elite in any metric except for the Russell and Sekera pairing in a few of the goals against/share metrics and while in some of the against metrics Klefbom and Larsson dont look great, what they help bring to the table evens out or more, so that is good.

    Calgarys top pair are hands down the class of the Pacific division. They show very good to elite in EVERY METRIC. I dont think defensively they are the best ( even though many of the metrics suggest so) but because they both can skate and pass the puck at an elite level, they can make plays in the Ozone, shoot the puck very well, good chemistry with the forwards; The puck is more often in the other end, so they they dont have to defend that much.

    I was surprised that the Vlasic pairing was not knocking it out of the park this year. Burns is carrying Martin.

    Not much offense from the Ducks pairs. Lindhom and Manson show well in shot, scoring chance and goal share. Fowler and Vatanen are the weaker pair. One little tidbit, when I watched the Ducks this Jan at the Honda center, Fowler was the “sexy” Dman. Great skater, best passer of the Duck Dmen.

  52. chasenic says:

    Question to the group: who finishes with more points McDavid or the Oilers?

  53. knighttown says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Agreed all points.

    Always great to see you post KT.

    I expect your posts/60 to increase in the playoffs.

    Be clutch.

    Yeah I’ve been a bit busy. Just completed a buyout of my 3 retiring partners on Friday night that’s been in the works since last February. I know you’ve been through these things before but I’d recommend prearranging the terms of an ownership transition because when emotion gets involved…look out.

    Now I can back to just operating so it’ll be busier than heck but at least not this level of stress.

    But make no mistake, I’m still watching every game, even with those 11pm Halifax starts.

  54. vinotintazo says:

    chasenic:
    Question to the group: who finishes with more points McDavid or the Oilers?

    Hoping McD can reach 100. Oil should win at least 2 of their last 4 games.

    So Oilers will get more points!

  55. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    WC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    x-CHI28
    x-MIN21
    x-ANA20
    x-EDM19
    x-SJS16
    x-STL15
    x-CGY13-1st wildcard
    x-NSH12-2nd wildcard
    ————-
    LAK3
    WPG2
    DAL-4
    VAN-9
    ARI-12
    COL-33

    Looks like the top 3 in each division is pretty much set with both NSH and CGY being 3 back of STL and SJS respectively.

    A win coupled with a loss from the team you’re chasing is 2 pts in my version of the pts% standings so its not “done”, but we’re getting close with only 3 games left each for SJS, CGY and NSH and 4 left for STL.

    If Thornton is out or comes back at 75% or less and Couture is still out that’s the match up you want if you are an EDM fan imo.

    WC games tonight

    None.

    The Jets should go all out to get Alzner as a UFA, and look for someone to take Myers off their hands if they have an internal cap. They wasted a season because of a gaping hole at left defense.

    Their weak defense helped crater their goaltending.

  56. Yeti says:

    chasenic:
    Question to the group: who finishes with more points McDavid or the Oilers?

    A tie!

  57. Yeti says:

    frjohnk: When looking at shots and scoring chances, there is lots happening in the Oiler end when the two Swedes are on the ice, but for the most part, there is more happening in the other end. When Russell and Sekera are on the ice, they get out corsied, out shot , but it seems they keep more of the shot attempts to the outside and can break even or more when looking at scoring chance share. That is good.

    This (and the previous post) was great – thank you!

  58. Pouzar says:

    godot10: The Jets should go all out to get Alzner as a UFA, and look for someone to take Myers off their hands if they have an internal cap.They wasted a season because of a gaping hole at left defense.

    Their weak defense helped crater their goaltending.

    I have no idea why they weren’t more aggressive on LD and Goaler.

  59. godot10 says:

    Ducey: I don’t know that Nuge’s problem is physical or injuries.

    He and Eberle have both seen their boxcars drop under TMac. I think its that they are being asked to play defensively more than they ever have before. Cheating for offense is not an option. Ideally they would have learned this in the minors.

    I’m interested to see whether they can continue to make to make the defensive adjustment and improve their offense. I have to keep reminding myself that Baby Nuge is still only 23 (turns 24 in a few weeks).

    Anyone know the background on Maroon? He doesn’t if the study well. He doesn’t appear to have player major junior (?) until he was drafted as a 19 yr old out of the North American Hockey League, likely as a puncher. Then played with the London Knights for a year.

    Seems to have a lot of similarities with our old friend Dustin Penner (big, good hands, history of being seen as lazy, disinterested and out of shape, coming out of no where).

    I know it would be blasphemy right now, but I wonder if Chia should be looking at moving him this summer. He could sell very high. I am worried Maroon will turn back into a pumpkin at some point – likely after getting a fat contract.

    Eberle is having an off year in shooting percentage…that is all. One shouldn’t draw big conclusions from a single off year. He psyched himself out last summer working on his one-timer and listening to his critics about dusting the puck all the time, Sometimes trying to fix things, makes things worse.

    In trying to fix his one timer, he ruined the “instinctual muscle memory” accuracy of his shot.

    Nugent-Hopkins is a rush player playing McLellan’s place and chase system, and the two are not meshing. Free Nuge. It is why for Nugent-Hopkins benefit, I hope a Nugent-Hopkins for Justin Faulk deal happens this summer.

  60. Bag of Pucks says:

    WG, how does Seth Jones compare to Larsson on the woodmonies?

    One of my early disappointments with Chia was him not going harder to sweeten the Nuge for Jones trade offer with NSH.

    Is Jones still trending behind Werenski as a D driver in CBJ?

    Possible that we got the better D with Larsson anyway?

  61. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    WG, how does Seth Jones compare to Larsson on the woodmonies?

    One of my early disappointments with Chia was him not going harder to sweeten the Nuge for Jones trade offer with NSH.

    Is Jones still trending behind Werenski as a D driver in CBJ?

    Possible that we got the better D with Larsson anyway?

    Not really answering your question, but I was running some of the numbers and noticed that Larsson is + 20.

    The funny thing, is that he is labeled as a defensive Dman, but his goals against are actually at the higher end when compared to other Dmen in the league. And it shows not only in goals against, but in goals against from the high danger area and also expected goals against.

    Why he has a good plus minus is in the goals for metric. At the upper end for Dmen.

    This is how he looks with our center men.
    He is +13 with McDavid
    +4 with RNH
    +7 with Letestu
    -2 with Drake
    even with DD

    Some of these numbers overlap.

    Interesting he was +15 last year. But last year in New Jersey, he played the Russell role. Very few goals scored against. Offense died. This year complete opposite, but same result. Systems play is a huge factor, but Larsson can plays the hockey.

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: Eberle is having an off year in shooting percentage…that is all.One shouldn’t draw big conclusions from a single off year.He psyched himself out last summer working on his one-timer and listening to his critics about dusting the puck all the time,Sometimes trying to fix things, makes things worse.

    In trying to fix his one timer, he ruined the “instinctual muscle memory” accuracy of his shot.

    Nugent-Hopkins is a rush player playing McLellan’s place and chase system, and the two are not meshing.Free Nuge.It is why for Nugent-Hopkins benefit, I hope a Nugent-Hopkins for Justin Faulk deal happens this summer.

    Agreed with the Eberle assessment, but by my eye, Nuge hasn’t been particularly effective on the rush even when he does try it. The D have been effectively angling him to the wall to force the cycle.

    Again, I don’t think TMac forces his Cs to dump it in every time. This team rushes plenty when its available.What the HC doesn’t encourage though is needless turnovers. I think this has made players like Nuge and Eberle more cautious with the puck. They’re not as inclined to try a 50/50 deke especially if it can lead to a quick transition and/or odd man rush the other way.

    This is one area where TMac has definitely had an impact on the past cheating for offense. This team used to give up a ton of odd man rushes and now they are schooled to protect the puck as their top priority. And as much as I liked Hall, he was definitely one of the most egregious offenders on this. He made plenty of low percentage rushes that resulted in easy turnovers.

    Imo, the team’s ability to gain control in the Ozone has greatly improved under TMac, precisely because they will take the dump-in if the opposition is clogging to prevent the rush. Before, they would force the rush even if it wasn’t there and turn it over. Now they’ve got the big Fs that can go to the wall to retrieve it. So, best of both worlds. We have the speedy skilled Fs to rush and the big physical boys if the opposition is forcing the dump.

  63. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    godot10: One shouldn’t draw big conclusions from a single off year.He psyched himself out last summer working on his one-timer and listening to his critics about dusting the puck all the time,Sometimes trying to fix things, makes things worse.

    In trying to fix his one timer, he ruined the “instinctual muscle memory” accuracy of his shot.

    Man, you warn against drawing conclusions, and then in the *very next sentence* draw some pretty sweeping conclusions and frame them in the definitive. Sprinkling in an “I think” or “in my opinion” here and there would be more effective.

  64. Ducey says:

    godot10: Eberle is having an off year in shooting percentage…that is all.One shouldn’t draw big conclusions from a single off year.He psyched himself out last summer working on his one-timer and listening to his critics about dusting the puck all the time,Sometimes trying to fix things, makes things worse.

    In trying to fix his one timer, he ruined the “instinctual muscle memory” accuracy of his shot.

    Nugent-Hopkins is a rush player playing McLellan’s place and chase system, and the two are not meshing.Free Nuge.It is why for Nugent-Hopkins benefit, I hope a Nugent-Hopkins for Justin Faulk deal happens this summer.

    Good point on the shooting percentage. If Ebs and Nuge were at 11% rather than their current 8%, they would each have 5 more goals.

  65. Professor Q says:

    jm363561: Versteeg has 15 goals in 67 games. Sigh.

    Eb’s 16 goals might not be “pathetic” but at a cost of circa $375k each I doubt they are 35th on the value index.

    Interesting to see if they protect him.

    Screw him. He made his choice.

  66. who says:

    godot10: Eberle is having an off year in shooting percentage…that is all.One shouldn’t draw big conclusions from a single off year.He psyched himself out last summer working on his one-timer and listening to his critics about dusting the puck all the time,Sometimes trying to fix things, makes things worse.

    In trying to fix his one timer, he ruined the “instinctual muscle memory” accuracy of his shot.

    Nugent-Hopkins is a rush player playing McLellan’s place and chase system, and the two are not meshing.Free Nuge.It is why for Nugent-Hopkins benefit, I hope a Nugent-Hopkins for Justin Faulk deal happens this summer.

    I am puzzled when people suggest keeping Eberle and trading Nuge. When I look at the potential roster for next year I see a shit load of right wingers (Drai, Eberle, Kassian, JP, Slepyshev, Pitlick, Pakarinen). Meanwhile, despite LTs claim of center depth, I see Mcdavid, Nuge, ?, Letestu. Based on this depth chart, why would anyone conclude the play is to trade Nuge?
    A better idea would be to go out and find someone capable of playing 3c with the ability to switch to wing if and when Tmac decides to play Drai at center. Young players like Joe Coburn or Andrew Copp come to mind off the top of my head.

  67. godot10 says:

    who: I am puzzled when people suggest keeping Eberle and trading Nuge. When I look at the potential roster for next year I see a shit load of right wingers (Drai, Eberle, Kassian, JP, Slepyshev, Pitlick, Pakarinen). Meanwhile, despite LTs claim of center depth, I see Mcdavid, Nuge,?, Letestu. Based on this depth chart, why would anyone conclude the play is to trade Nuge?
    A better idea would be to go out and find someone capable of playing 3c with the ability to switch to wing if and when Tmac decides to play Drai at center. Young players like Joe Coburn or Andrew Copp come to mind off the top of my head.

    I said “for Nugent-Hopkin’s benefit”, not for the Oiler’s benefit. #FreeNuge

  68. leadfarmer says:

    who,

    When you move Drai from RW to center things get a lot more clearer.

    C: McDavid, Drai, Nuge Latestube

    RW: Eberle, Pulparty, Kassian (needs a contract) Slepy, Pitlick covering IR and Pak isnt good enough

  69. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar: I have no idea why they weren’t more aggressive on LD and Goaler.

    Cause aggressive and Chevaldayoff are like oil and water. He evaluates like Mr. Mcdithers

  70. Professor Q says:

    godot10: I said “for Nugent-Hopkin’s benefit”, not for the Oiler’s benefit. #FreeNuge

    Or perhaps free him in terms of game plan instead?

  71. Pouzar says:

    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors 26m26 minutes ago
    More
    We have signed #Oilers prospects Ryan Mantha & Joe Gambardella to ATOs for the rest of this season. #GetIN >> http://bit.ly/2oCi7ha

  72. treevojo says:

    Toronto media loves to troll.

    Now that they figure Mathews has got the Calder locked up they can’t help but trying to start pushing his name in the hart campaign.

    Makes me wanna see them lose out and and Tampa jump them in the last game of the season.

  73. pocession charge says:

    godot10: I said “for Nugent-Hopkin’s benefit”, not for the Oiler’s benefit. #FreeNuge

    Like how Hall benefited from being traded? It’s a very big assumption that Nuge would a) end up on a better team than the Oilers, and b) his production would magically increase. Most teams play a very similar system now, btw.

  74. who says:

    leadfarmer:
    who,

    When you move Drai from RW to center things get a lot more clearer.

    C:McDavid, Drai, Nuge Latestube

    RW:Eberle, Pulparty, Kassian (needs a contract)Slepy, Pitlick covering IR and Pak isnt good enough

    Yeah but that just leaves you with 4 centers. Trading Nuge would leave you with three.
    I agree that Drai at center is the way to go moving forward. But I’m not sure that TMac agrees with us.

  75. pocession charge says:

    frjohnk: Not really answering your question, but I was running some of the numbers and noticed that Larsson is + 20.

    The funny thing, is that he is labeled as a defensive Dman, but his goals against are actually at the higher end when compared to other Dmen in the league. And it shows not only in goals against, but in goals against from the high danger area and also expected goals against.

    Why he has a good plus minus is in the goals for metric.At the upper end for Dmen.

    This is how he looks with our center men.
    He is +13 with McDavid
    +4 with RNH
    +7 with Letestu
    -2 with Drake
    even with DD

    Some of these numbers overlap.

    Interesting he was +15 last year.But last year in New Jersey, he played the Russell role.Very few goals scored against.Offense died.This year complete opposite, but same result. Systems play is a huge factor, but Larsson can plays the hockey.

    Kind of sounds like these individual stats are largely team driven. Go to NJ and you have awful GF stats. Go to Washington, Edmonton, or Pittsburgh and have much better GF stats.

    We can’t evaluate properly without the eye test. The guy can definitely play the game effectively, especially in the defensive zone.

  76. Professor Q says:

    treevojo:
    Toronto media loves to troll.

    Now that they figure Mathews has got the Calder locked up they can’t help but trying to start pushing his name in the hart campaign.

    Makes me wanna see them lose out and and Tampa jump them in the last game of the season.

    Indeed…

    http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/sports/nhl/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/sports/nhl/the-toronto-effect-does-playing-for-the-maple-leafs-help-or-hurt-auston-matthews-calder-trophy-candidacy

    I don’t remember many articles like that for any of the Oilers’ Calder candidates aside from post-award.

  77. who says:

    godot10: I said “for Nugent-Hopkin’s benefit”, not for the Oiler’s benefit. #FreeNuge

    Just used your quote cause it was handy. I have seen a lot of posters suggest trading Nuge and keeping Eberle.

  78. John Chambers says:

    godot10: The Jets should go all out to get Alzner as a UFA, and look for someone to take Myers off their hands if they have an internal cap.They wasted a season because of a gaping hole at left defense.

    Their weak defense helped crater their goaltending.

    My bet is that Calgary-born Alzner signs with the Flames using the money freed up from Wideman’s contract.

    Because if you’re Karl Alzner the Flames appear much closer to contending than Winnipeg. Taxes are also higher in MB than in AB, while the fun factor between the two cities is night and day.

    The Flames top-4 D next season stacks up very nicely:
    Brodie – Giordano
    Alzner – Hamilton

  79. N64 says:

    Yeti: A tie!

    ~ And then McDavid takes on the team for 5 minutes of 1 on 3. Would not bet against 97 ~

  80. Chachi says:

    Professor Q: Screw him. He made his choice.

    This is correct. Fuck that guy and the horse he rode in and out on.

  81. Pouzar says:

    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @Real_ESPNLeBrun 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    NHL in a statement just released announces that it is officially not going to the Olympic Games next year

  82. Pouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors26m26 minutes ago
    MoreWe have signed #Oilers prospects Ryan Mantha & Joe Gambardella to ATOs for the rest of this season. #GetIN >> http://bit.ly/2oCi7ha

    Welcome. F^ck the Jets.

  83. linkfromhyrule says:

    Pouzar:
    Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @Real_ESPNLeBrun2m2 minutes ago
    MoreNHL in a statement just released announces that it is officially not going to the Olympic Games next year

    Haha. Such a joke of a league, it’s shameful that the best league in the world is run by imbeciles.

  84. Professor Q says:

    So, just saw that the NHL won’t be going to the Olympics.

    Shame.

    I wonder how this will affect relationships between the Player’s Union and the League/Owners. Especially those players like Ovechkin who have vowed to go anyway, no matter the result of Bettman’s decision.

    Bettman and his lackeys are ridiculous and well, I can’t say much good about them unfortunately.

    Go Women, at any rate.

  85. godot10 says:

    Anton Lander is probably going to the Olympics.

  86. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    While its fun to get worked up about the Olympic snub I see the owners point.

    No other professional sports league would postpone its season for two weeks for a non-market tournament. Sports is a business and sometimes business decisions are hard.

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    knighttown: My Gord that’s a good post. And the number walls are broken up by little bitsize explanations on what they mean to you.

    So to summarize, Connor McDavid is good at the hockeys?

    Thank you sir.

    To paraphrase Mike Parkatti:

    “Sidney Crosby is the best NHLer. McDavid came down to play in the NHL from the Galactic League”

  88. blainer says:

    Brian Boyle was the player I really wanted and am sure Chia wanted too.

    That friggin 2nd rounder we had to give up to Boston cost us Boyle IMO. Oh well hard to be upset with a team that has gone 9-1 in their last ten.

    A lot of people our gracious host included don’t think we can win the cup this year. I understand their way of thinking but these days all you have to do is qualify. I actually think we have a good shot.

    We have basically been playing playoff hockey for the last month or so. This team also is not that young anymore and has quite a few players with playoff experience a generational player and a Goalie who can steal you a cup almost on his own.

    I know I am too optimistc but I just feel we have a good shot especially against the west !!

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    knighttown: Yeah I’ve been a bit busy.Just completed a buyout of my 3 retiring partners on Friday night that’s been in the works since last February.I know you’ve been through these things before but I’d recommend prearranging the terms of an ownership transition because when emotion gets involved…look out.

    Now I can back to just operating so it’ll be busier than heck but at least not this level of stress.

    But make no mistake, I’m still watching every game, even with those 11pm Halifax starts.

    Congrats!

    I bet that was emotionally draining.

    Sage advice as well sir.

  90. Jethro Tull says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    While its fun to get worked up about the Olympic snub I see the owners point.

    No other professional sports league would postpone its season for two weeks for a non-market tournament. Sports is a business and sometimes business decisions are hard.

    Not a swipe at you, but since I ‘ve lived in Canada, I’ve found this is a very common opinion about world sports in North America. Soccer, Cricket, Rugby all have much higher ratings, but they manage to even play exhibition ‘friendly’ games with full squads drawn from the very best leagues in the world.

  91. frjohnk says:

    pocession charge: Kind of sounds like these individual stats are largely team driven.Go to NJ and you have awful GF stats.Go to Washington, Edmonton, or Pittsburgh and have much better GF stats.

    We can’t evaluate properly without the eye test.The guy can definitely play the game effectively, especially in the defensive zone.

    Very team and system driven. Thats why its foolish to compare on ice numbers between two players on different teams and try rank them. Like corsi against per 60 between an Oiler and a Devil. I used to do this lots. But its wrong.

    By eye, I would say that Larsson is very good in our end. But when we look at the counting numbers as they come out, he is on the ice for the highest or closest to in against numbers in shots, shots from the slot, goals, goals from the slot.

    In the end, all the matters is that when he is on the ice, the Oilers usually have better counting numbers in the other end, especially goals.

    I just found it funny, that he had a +20 and I had thought it was mostly that other teams dont score much when he is on the ice. When I dug into the numbers, it was more of the opposite, the teams do score quite a bit, but its more of what happens in the other end.

    One funny tidbit I found ( with his future partner)
    Larsson’s goals against per 60 with Nurse is not that great, its 3
    but their goals for per 60 is 7!!!
    60 minutes of TOI, 7 goals for 3 goals against.

  92. jdhardy says:

    It’s all a conspiracy by USA Hockey to avoid having to play against Crosby and McDavid on the same team.

    In all seriousness, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the bye weeks clustered around the Olympics; more of a slow-down than a shut down. If teams are only going to lose their stars for 2-3 games they might be more willing to let them go. NHL players can probably afford to cover their own travel & insurance. That way the NHL can placate the owners and the players still get to go, if their owners let them and they (or their national org) put up the money.

  93. jake70 says:

    Olympic thing doesn’t bother me except for McDavid not getting a chance at it. IOC also saying China in 2022 is linked to S. Korea….we’ll see but if so, sucks for 97.

  94. Professor Q says:

    jdhardy,

    Ah, so THAT’S why they said McDavid would never win the Hart because he has never won an Olympics like Crosby.

    They’re set on keeping it that way.

  95. Ducey says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    While its fun to get worked up about the Olympic snub I see the owners point.

    No other professional sports league would postpone its season for two weeks for a non-market tournament. Sports is a business and sometimes business decisions are hard.

    The Olympic committee isn’t exactly a bastion of reasonableness either.

    If they got more of the income, I am sure the NHL would be there.

    When Bettman says its the end of the discussion, he really means it has really started.

  96. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Jethro Tull,

    That’s fair but in the world of soccer they have the Champions League and FA Cup tournaments to grease their financial wheels while the club teams rake in cash over the season (I don’t know much about rugby and cricket so I won’t comment).

    But I could never see the MLB or NBA changing their schedules to suit a tournament that doesn’t pay them a dime.

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    WG, how does Seth Jones compare to Larsson on the woodmonies?

    One of my early disappointments with Chia was him not going harder to sweeten the Nuge for Jones trade offer with NSH.

    Is Jones still trending behind Werenski as a D driver in CBJ?

    Possible that we got the better D with Larsson anyway?

    Jones – 30% vs Elite Forwards – DFF% RelComp +0.9 (Raw DFF% 48.5%)
    Werenski – 32% vs Elite Fowards DFF% Relcomp +1.0

    Those two are partners so their numbers will be very close and next to impossible to separate out who is driving what.

    Larsson – 35% vs Elite Forwars – DFF% RelComp -3.2% (Raw DFF% 47.8)

    I’d say they are very close in results based on these metrics only with Larsson seeing more time vs. the best.

    To give more context to Jones/Werenski:

    Johnson/Savard are a pair and Murray has been 3rd pair all year:

    Johnson 33% vs Elite Forwards DFF% RelComp +1.9% (Raw DFF% 49.2)

    Murray 28% vs Elite Forwards DFF% RelComp -7.2% (Raw DFF% 40.3%)

    Jack Johnson having a career year possession-wise.

  98. Professor Q says:

    Ducey: The Olympic committee isn’t exactly a bastion of reasonableness either.

    If they got more of the income, I am sure the NHL would be there.

    When Bettman says its the end of the discussion, he really means it has really started.

    This is true. Both are corrupt.

    I just hope that if we’re deprived of the best players, we at least can get University and AHL players (let alone other leagues from Europe what have you) and are entertained. I sometimes find AHL games and University games can be more entertaining than NHL games.

    And well, we still have the Women. I’m glad they got that sorted out, but I do think they deserve more respect and more coverage! I think I’m not alone in thinking that more coverage and income for the Women’s Pro Leagues would be awesome, and for tournaments, too.

  99. treevojo says:

    Ducey: The Olympic committee isn’t exactly a bastion of reasonableness either.

    If they got more of the income, I am sure the NHL would be there.

    When Bettman says its the end of the discussion, he really means it has really started.

    I agree with this.

    I’m not saying that the nhl will end up going to the olympics but I would say the game of chicken has just begun.

  100. striatic says:

    Ducey: The Olympic committee isn’t exactly a bastion of reasonableness either.

    If they got more of the income, I am sure the NHL would be there.

    When Bettman says its the end of the discussion, he really means it has really started.

    It’s a little crazy that the IOC chose to go Sochi, Pyeongchang, Beijing – putting the winter games on UTC +3 or higher over a span of 12 years. The Winter Games should be in North America or Western Europe every other Olympiad, and as much as I think the NHL is being unfair to the players – got to side with labour here – the IOC isn’t doing anybody, players included, any favours by picking NHL unfriendly venues 3 times in a row.

    Between the IOC and NHL, there’s really no one very likeable in this situation. The players, who are eager to go play in the Olympics for our entertainment and national pride – ok, and the endorsement money from elevated prestige – get the shaft.

  101. Centre of attention says:

    I could honestly care less about the Olympics. If the NHL saves money/makes more money this way that means salary cap goes up.

    We need the league to make as much revenue as possible in preparation for the McDavid contract.

    Up until the late 90’s the Canada Cup was the premier international hockey tournament.

    Maybe the NHL skipping the Olympics means they will be forced to make the next world cup way better and set a new standard for international hockey. Interesting option to have a Womans World Cup.

  102. N64 says:

    Jethro Tull: Not a swipe at you, but since I ‘ve lived in Canada, I’ve found this is a very common opinion about world sports in North America.Soccer, Cricket, Rugby all have much higher ratings, but they manage to even play exhibition ‘friendly’ games with full squads drawn from the very best leagues in the world.

    Summer Olympics, no problem. Friendlys fit around schedules, not drive them.

  103. Pouzar says:

    Centre of attention: I could honestly care less about the Olympics.

    So you care. 😛

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: The Jets should go all out to get Alzner as a UFA, and look for someone to take Myers off their hands if they have an internal cap.They wasted a season because of a gaping hole at left defense.

    Their weak defense helped crater their goaltending.

    Not a big Alzner fan.

    He plays the toughs, but doesn’t do it well.

    This year:

    Carlson and Alzner 46.1%
    Alzner away 48.3%
    Carlson away 54.4%

    45%(!!) vs Elite Forwards DFF% RelComp -6.3%, (Raw DFF 41.2%)

    Niskanen is ~4% better away from Alzner over the last 3 years as well.

  105. N64 says:

    treevojo: I agree with this.

    I’m not saying that the nhl will end up going to the olympics but I would say the game of chicken has just begun.

    Began a few days ago with IOC announcement that NHL and IIHF had to sort this out.
    NHL knows IIHF will get stuck with costs IOC used to defray so that isn’t as big an issue as they make out. NHL is apparently pushing for sponsor deal with IOC where they can show highlights etc. on the NHL platform.

  106. McSorley33 says:

    5v5 GF/60
    McDavid – 5.17 – just 78% above 1st line median……hahahaha
    RNH – 1.55 – below 4th line median….ouch

    *****************************************************************
    Wow.

    We are deploying a lot of Capital on that 2nd line…..

  107. Chachi says:

    Re the Olympics. Move the World Juniors to a month and a half later. That would be fun.

  108. Professor Q says:

    Especially this.

    Even Canadian players like Tavares, Hall, McDavid, et al. are hunting at going no matter what.

    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/sports/hockey/2017/01/30/ovechkin-vows-hell-play-in-olympics-even-if-nhl-doesnt-go.html

    So yeah probably posturing by Bettman, as usual.

  109. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Johnson/Savard are a pair and Murray has been 3rd pair all year:
    Johnson 33% vs Elite Forwards DFF% RelComp +1.9% (Raw DFF% 49.2)
    Murray 28% vs Elite Forwards DFF% RelComp -7.2% (Raw DFF% 40.3%)
    Jack Johnson having a career year possession-wise.

    OMG. Woodguy likes Jack Johnson.

    EDIT: Sound the alarm!

  110. Professor Q says:

    I wonder if we could steal him and/or Kreuger back for Bakersfield…

    http://www.mlive.com/griffins/index.ssf/2017/03/todd_nelson_carving_out_own_su.html

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Olympics

    Those of you mad at the NHL should consider this from their perspective for a minute.

    You run the best league in the world, paying the best players in the world the most money they can make on the planet.

    The IOC wants you to shut down your business for a month and take your product (the players) so they can have a tournament and make a pile of money using your product.

    Not only that, but they don’t want to cover the insurance on your product (players) and want you to take all that risk (along with the IIHF) because of the marketing that it does for your sport.

    The Pyeongchang Olympics has very little marketing appeal to the NHL, both in terms of the Korean market and in terms of non-hockey fan eyeballs to market to given the massive time disparity from Pyeongchang to North America.

    On top of all that, if there’s one group that make the NHL looks like choir boys when it comes to rooking money from governments its the IOC.

    I’d tell them to take a flying fuck at a rolling donut too.

    China, on the other hand is a huge opportunity and China is the NHL focus for overseas growth.

    You can bet they’ll go there because it benefits them.

    Same as they shut down their sport for Euro locations.

    I like to watch Olympic hockey too, but the NHL doesn’t owe Olympic hockey to anyone.

    This doesn’t take into account what the players want to do, which is a totally separate conversation.

  112. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Not a big Alzner fan.

    He plays the toughs, but doesn’t do it well.

    This year:

    Carlson and Alzner 46.1%
    Alzner away 48.3%
    Carlson away 54.4%

    45%(!!) vs Elite ForwardsDFF% RelComp -6.3%, (Raw DFF 41.2%)

    Niskanen is ~4% better away from Alzner over the last 3 years as well.

    Honest question for you woodguy. And I’m being sincere and polite when asking this.

    Do you question your metrics ever? Or does your faith in the metrics waiver?

    Because I see that alzner is playing almost half of his time against elite forwards at even strength. I’d imagine the rest of his ice time is 1st PK. And Washington is once again one of the best teams in the league, and imo, have a really good shot at the cup this year.

    So when you say alzner is getting killed at it, I look at their presidents trophy record and wonder who’s right. Is he actually doing poorly? Or is the ~4% he loses in shots even significant?

    Again honest question. I know you take a lot of flack online from different people, but I was curious

  113. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Looking at the top 360 forwards in the NHL (4 lines x 30 teams) we get a decent approximation of “line scoring” (players with 450min+ 5v5 to avoid small sample issues)

    GF/60 of “lines”
    Line 1: 2.65 – 3.81 (players 1-90) – median 2.90
    Line 2:2.29 – 2.65 (players 91-180) – median 2.47
    Line 3: 1.86 – 2.29 (players 181-270) – median 2.09
    Line 4 1.16 – 1.86 (plaeyrs 271-360) – median 1.66

    Its not perfect, but gives us a nice estimation of where the line in the sand is.

    Some teams score more than others. When you sort on GF60, players from higher scoring teams will appear higher on your list, out of position with the actual line they play on.

    I’d sort on TOI first and then find the median GF60 in each group. There’s only so much TOI to go around and I think it would be a closer approximation to lines.

    Although the results may not be that different because you’re using median…

  114. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    South Korea happens to be in Asia, though, and Southeast Asia at that. They enjoy hockey as well and are also a market the NHL has proclaimed to want to expand into.

    While they’re “worried” about the 2-week disruption and want more pay (who wouldn’t?), they do seem to have two sides to this. They want their cake and to eat it, too. And yes, I suppose that’s what modern businesses (most) aim to do.

    The NHL would be much better with Olympic ice, as an aside.

  115. Jethro Tull says:

    N64: Summer Olympics, no problem. Friendlys fit around schedules, not drive them.

    No, television money drives everything. If the IOC cut the NHL in, this wouldn’t even be an issue. I was talking to the wife about this at the weekend, with how a lot a other countries see representing your home nation as the pinnacle of their career. That’s how a lot of Russians see it, and a a lot of the Euros too. When i watch TV and listen to the radio and I hear that events hosted in other countries should be aired so NA can view them at a time that is convenient to them, i shake my head. Can you imagine that happening on US soil?

    There is absolutely no sensible reason the best players from the NHL shouldn’t attend the Olympics.

  116. classict says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m pretty sure I’ve read that the IIHF and various hockey associations will cover insurance and other costs. The IOC may have moved the costs to somewhere else (not sure the specifics) but not necessarily to the NHL.

    Is the NHL trying to use that as a reason for not going? They have never paid for those things.

    Found a link

  117. blackadder says:

    The problem with the way the NHL approaches everything is they try and have it both ways. They’ll say they’re just a business when justifying the decision to not go to the Olympics, or trying to justify the three lockouts over the last twenty years years, and yet claim to be beholden to the fans and an important part of the community as they try to blackmail governments into getting public financing for their arenas.

    Truth is, if you want to be all about the fans and the communities their teams reside in, then you go to the Olympics. If it’s just a business, then stop using fan’s attachment to the local club to threaten cities to get concessions on leases, arenas etc., and succeed and fail on your business acumen.

  118. N64 says:

    classict:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m pretty sure I’ve read that the IIHF and various hockey associations will cover insurance and other costs. The IOC may have moved the costs to somewhere else (not sure the specifics) but not necessarily to the NHL.

    Is the NHL trying to use that as a reason for not going? They have never paid for those things.

    Found a link

    IOC covered that. Dropped it for more profits. Announced they have nothing to do with the NHL and the IIHF can takes it from amateur programs.

    Gary’s playing the reverse game. NHL wants a sponsor link. Not TV revenue. But they want to be able to show images on NHL web properities. Think video highlights not games.

    This does not end without some direct deal with the IOC and NHL. IOC has removed the old link. Gary’s doubling down for a new one. The tie from 2018 to 2022 raised the hostility a notch. Shakedown artists shaking each other down. NHL is the minors when it comes to shakedowns.

  119. classict says:

    On top of it all, I’m sure the NHL will have no problem using Olympic participation as a bargaining chip while we sit through another lockout.

  120. classict says:

    N64: IOC covered that. Dropped it for more profits. Announced they have nothing to do with the NHL and the IIHF can takes it from amateur programs.

    Gary’s playing the reverse game. NHL wants a sponsor link. Not TV revenue. But they want to be able to show images on NHL web properities. Think video highlights not games.

    This does not end without some direct deal with the IOC and NHL. IOC has removed the old link. Gary’s doubling down for a new one. The tie from 2018 to 2022 raised the hostility a notch. Shakedown artists shaking each other down. NHL is the minors when it comes to shakedowns.

    Yea and I see no way the NHL gets that. IOC is brutal when it comes to content rights and sponsorship (look at track this past year in the summer Olympics).

    IOC knows the NHL will just cave when it comes to China I guess. I think you’re right saying NHL is the minors when it comes to shakedowns.

  121. Professor Q says:

    classict:
    On top of it all, I’m sure the NHL will have no problem using Olympic participation as a bargaining chip while we sit through another lockout.

    They tried that, but the players weren’t buying. They said they’d extend the CBA by a few years and let the players go, but the players knew that that’d be almost 100% not in their favour.

  122. kgo says:

    Troll alert: Martin Marincin has 0 points, has played only 5 games in the past 60 days….

  123. Scungilli says:

    Woodguy is right about the Olympics. The only reason we don’t see it from the leagues Jethro mentioned is that they are all summer sports so far less leverage, the NHL is the single big draw in the winter. In scummy what the lemming CEO’s are doing now mindless plan the NHL is crassly trying to strong arm because they can.

    They deserve a cut, but it doesn’t have to look like typical Bettman heavy handed tactics. I can’t wait until he’s gone, economics prove this type of behaviour actually lowers long term income- bad blood catches up.

  124. commonfan14 says:

    Professor Q: They tried that, but the players weren’t buying. They said they’d extend the CBA by a few years and let the players go, but the players knew that that’d be almost 100% not in their favour.

    This I didn’t get. When was the last time the players didn’t prefer the previous CBA to the new one?

    Unclear to me why they think they’re going to get a better deal next time.

  125. Scungilli says:

    The NHL is the best league. All teams and coaches are using systems, maybe some are a little looser. Not all talented playersvwIll be good enough for the league. How many times have we seen our pets go elsewhere and still underwhelm? The player has to make it happen with what’s in front of them.

    Some change their spots like first round flat liners Cogliano and Gagner and get a career. Pajaarvi might too.

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    classict:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m pretty sure I’ve read that the IIHF and various hockey associations will cover insurance and other costs. The IOC may have moved the costs to somewhere else (not sure the specifics) but not necessarily to the NHL.

    Is the NHL trying to use that as a reason for not going? They have never paid for those things.

    Found a link

    Thanks for that.

    Insurance was the burning issue last I looked.

    Here’s the NHL’s PR department’s piece on it: https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-will-not-participate-in-2018-winter-olympics/c-288385598

    I found this interesting if true:

    The NHL conducted polls in both Canada and the United States to determine if fans were in favor of the League taking a break in February to allow players to compete in the Olympics. In the United States, 73 percent said they were not in favor. In Canada, it was 53 percent against the break.

  127. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m definitely sceptical. Most players seem to be in favour, as do most fans.

    It could be their directional wording and sample group, too.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q,

    They want their cake and to eat it, too

    I don’t see how that applies to this situation.

    The NHL would be much better with Olympic ice, as an aside.

    I think it would become very trappy and boring.

    3-2 hockey would become 2-1 hockey imo.

  129. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: Some teams score more than others. When you sort on GF60, players from higher scoring teams will appear higher on your list, out of position with the actual line they play on.

    I’d sort on TOI first and then find the median GF60 in each group. There’s only so much TOI to go around and I think it would be a closer approximation to lines.

    Although the results may not be that different because you’re using median…

    That’s why I used the term ” decent approximation of “line scoring” and used the median like you noted and also “Its not perfect, but gives us a nice estimation of where the line in the sand is.”

    If you’re sorting by total TOI, then you need to grind it further to TOI/gm, not total TOI.

    I’ll try that tonight (I have an open hour somewhere) and see what it brings.

    Instinct tells me to go wider (not 90, but 95 per line league-wide) given the injury issues and players moving up and down the line up.

    Who you plays with matters a ton.

  130. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thanks for that.

    Insurance was the burning issue last I looked.

    Here’s the NHL’s PR department’s piece on it: https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-will-not-participate-in-2018-winter-olympics/c-288385598

    I found this interesting if true:

    The NHL conducted polls in both Canada and the United States to determine if fans were in favor of the League taking a break in February to allow players to compete in the Olympics. In the United States, 73 percent said they were not in favor. In Canada, it was 53 percent against the break.

    Polls were only open to family members of NHL team owners?

  131. jake70 says:

    The leafs are running all over Buffalo, 3-0 after about 5 minutes…….although you can probably hear Romanuk out there in Alberta with each goal the leafs score………..

  132. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Professor Q,

    They want their cake and to eat it, too

    I don’t see how that applies to this situation.

    The NHL would be much better with Olympic ice, as an aside.

    I think it would become very trappy and boring.

    3-2 hockey would become 2-1 hockey imo.

    You’re a smart person. Figure out how it applies. I believe in you.

    Also, you’re ass backwards about your last point. It would actually open the game up more and become more exciting, as seen in International Hockey.

    Smaller Ice = More Trapping and Boring Hockey. As well as more injuries, particularly due to the increased trapping, cheap shots, and hacking. The officiating doesn’t help, either.

    There have been many calling for the increasing of the size. Less injury to players and more space. It’s too crowded as it is right now, with bigger, faster, and more skilled players.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18,

    There’s a lot to unpack here, so I’ll do it idea by idea.

    Honest question for you woodguy. And I’m being sincere and polite when asking this.
    Do you question your metrics ever? Or does your faith in the metrics waiver?

    I wouldn’t call it faith.

    I’m skeptical by nature and only trust my interpretation of the data due to what I have learned over time, but I know I’m not the burning bush either.

    As for the data, there’s no faith there either. Its just data, and it pretty accurate in terms of what happened on the ice. 2 people can come to different conclusions using the same data.

    I’ve been looking at shot metrics and trying to figure things out with them and project with them for ~8ish years now. This is back when behindthenet was the only site with this stuff and I had to type in game numbers into Vic Ferarri’s website to get game by game data to track things.

    Gabe started behind the net in 2006 and I think I started reading here in ~2008/9 and delved into shot metrics about a year later to start figuring it out for myself.

    I actually bribed Gabe to create a stat so I could see the results (it was a crude “expected corsi against vs. actual corsi against” and I didn’t know how to ask the question properly and got meh results) Red Wings were so dominate then the top of the chart was filled with Wings and I knew they didn’t have all the good Dmen so I threw out the results. Gabe is a fine man so the bribe was a donation to his favorite charity.

    Over all that time I think I’ve figured out where shot metrics are quite good and where they are murky.

    I still make mistakes and am learning everyday for sure.

    One area that’s almost a “fail safe” is WOWY (with and without you) measurements that show what happens when a player is on the ice with his variety of partners.

    If a player’s partners are usually better away from him, he’s a drag. There’s no getting around that.

    If you look at mulitple years and its the same thing year over year over year it and you’ve accounted for QoC it takes zero faith to think “this guy’s a drag”

    Because I see that alzner is playing almost half of his time against elite forwards at even strength. I’d imagine the rest of his ice time is 1st PK.

    You misunderstand what is being measured here.

    All of his 45% TOI vs Elite is 5v5 time. His other 55% is also 5v5 time. PK time is not considered in this.

    When players like Niskanen and Carlson aren’t playing with Alzner, they’re not getting the easy minutes, they get 35%+ vs Elites too.

    Alzner has more and you need to account for that, but his WOWY are so severe over the years you just *know* that QoC doesn’t account for all of it because I’ve looked at this exact thing for years and that kind of drop can’t be 100% contributed to QoC when his partners play similar minutes when not with him.

    Also, when you look at WoodMoney the “RelComp” means “relative to his team mates vs the same level of comp”

    So you can’t say “well, his number is because he sees the toughs. The Elite RelComp is compared to how his team does vs the same Elite players when he’s on the ice, and they do much better, so its a huge tell.

    Most high end Dmen do better vs the Elite than their team mates and most at least saw off. He doesn’t and his most common partner is better away from him. Those are big red flags.

    And Washington is once again one of the best teams in the league, and imo, have a really good shot at the cup this year.
    So when you say alzner is getting killed at it, I look at their presidents trophy record and wonder who’s right. Is he actually doing poorly?

    I wish that LT didn’t lose all his comments from his blog when it was on blogger.

    Then I could go back and find where I told the numbers guys to “watch the game” and question what they were saying because it didn’t jibe with how I saw hockey.

    It was only after a few years of watching them be more right than me that I decided to look deeper into this stuff. That and to see if I could find an edge for gambling.

    One of the things that quickly died in my “belief system” was that all players on good teams were good.

    Its not true.

    Problem is that we can’t run full seasons over again only changing a few players to see if we’re right, but over ~9+years we’ve had lots of proxies that were close and the shot metrics, when properly interpreted, point the way most of the time.

    WSH is a crazy good team, and in my opinion, would be better if they upgraded Alzner.

    Its not that Alzner is bad in that spot, it that’s he’s not good. There’s a difference.

    Its looking at how these things have played out over 9 years that gives me the confidence to say that. Not faith.

    Not all players are good teams are good, even ones who play a lot. That’s just a truth.

    So when you say alzner is getting killed at it

    This is the biggest problem I have with people on this forum. They attribute things to me I never said, and this is one of them.

    I never said he was getting killed.

    I presented the data and my interpretation of it was:

    “Not a big Alzner fan. He plays the toughs, but doesn’t do it well.”

    That’s it.

    “killed” was never there.

    If you think he’s being killed, that’s your interpretation, not mine so don’t attribute things to me I never said.

    I know that many people who really don’t like me, don’t like me for things I never actually said/wrote, but due to their interpretation of what I said/wrote.

    Except Ducey.

    He’s 100% correct to dislike me.

    Or is the ~4% he loses in shots even significant?

    4% is massive actually.

    Think of it this way: (set aside for a second that raw CF% itself isn’t a good evaluation tool unless it has lots of context)

    Currently there are 203 Dmen who have played at least 400 5v5 minutes this year.

    The median (number 102) has a raw CF% of 49.6%

    4% above that is 53.6% and that would get you tied for 26th

    4% below that and its 45.6% and that has you in 190th place.

    Its big.

    Now, he needs some context there, but because I looked at Carlson and Niskanen and made sure they saw similar comp I was more comfortable in my decision.

    Because I went back and looked at Alzner’s last 5 seasons and saw the same trend I was even more comfortable.

    I’ve learned where the pitfalls are (I don’t always avoid them) and usually double check before posting anything. Unless I’ve been drinking.


    Again honest question. I know you take a lot of flack online from different people, but I was curious

    I hope I’ve answered to your satisfaction.

    I appreciate your honesty in the way you asked.

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q,

    You’re a smart person. Figure out how it applies. I believe in you.

    I asked an honest question and you were an asshole about it.

    Seriously dick answer.

    Also, you’re ass backwards about your last point. It would actually open the game up more and become more exciting, as seen in International Hockey.
    Smaller Ice = More Trapping and Boring Hockey.
    There have been many calling for the increasing of the size. Less injury to players and more space. It’s too crowded as it is right now.

    From everything I’ve read, you’re the one who’s ass backwards.

    Not a fan of Ken Campbell, but he quotes some people in this piece that should be listened to:

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/big-ice-a-big-failure-when-it-comes-to-creating-offense

    ut, by far, the biggest culprit in dragging the tournament down was the international-sized ice surface. After watching Sochi 2014, it would be impossible for anyone to continue to perpetuate the myth that a larger ice surface would create more offense. The Canadian team, which allowed three goals in the tournament and outchanced its opponents badly, proved beyond any doubt that the extra 3,000 square feet afforded by the big ice is largely wasted space.
    “People make a big deal of the big ice,” said Canadian defenseman Jay Bouwmeester. “They think it’s going to be a more offensive game and it’s kind of the opposite because all the extra room is on the outside of the rink.”
    Duncan Keith remarked after Canada won the gold medal that much of the reason for its defensive success was that any time they were in trouble, they were able to put the puck into an area of the ice where it was a safe distance from the net. And only when Canada learned to adapt by basically playing within the faceoff dots did it really begin to excel in the tournament. In fact, at one point in the tournament, Corey Perry talked about “shrinking the ice…more like an NHL-size rink.”

    Also here’s a piece all the way back to 1998 that talks about the same thing:

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1998-02-10/sports/9802100072_1_neutral-zone-trap-corners-nhl-hockey

    The fact that you actually think big ice means more offense tells me that you haven’t read much about it because everyone who know anything about pro hockey comes to the opposite conclusion.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Polls were only open to family members of NHL team owners?

    I did say it was NHL PR.

  136. Lloyd B. says:

    Professor Q: You’re a smart person. Figure out how it applies. I believe in you.

    Also, you’re ass backwards about your last point. It would actually open the game up more and become more exciting, as seen in International Hockey.

    Smaller Ice = More Trapping and Boring Hockey.

    There have been many calling for the increasing of the size. Less injury to players and more space. It’s too crowded as it is right now.

    International hockey is not faster nor more exciting. Play in the extra width of the ice slows the game down. The game is still won from the middle of the ice.

    Lots of players that excel in the international arena can’t make the NHL due to the speed the smaller ice surface forces.

    I’m not saying the players that excel on the international surface aren’t great players. They are.

    Consider how many comments there are on this blog about bringing over the guys that play on the international ice surface to NA to get used to the pace of the game and size of the playing surface.

    Most include some sort of comment about needing to go to the AHL to acclimatize. Puljiarvi comes to mind.

    Not unlike the difference in the CFL and NFL field sizes. Both football but different games.

    Very few players that excel in one leaque go to the other and excel. Yes I’m aware of Warren Moon to name only one. But they are rare.

    One of the guys I hope for the most in the Oilers system is a case in point. Lander.

    He is an excellent player on the international surface but his lack of speed catches up to him in the NHL.

    ** Edit ** Of course WG finds any manner of quotes to support my comments while I was creating my diatribe on International vs NHL sized games/players. Well done as ever**

  137. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I was an asshole about it because you were being an asshole in your original comment, and usually are one, sardonically so. You weren’t really asking a honest question, either. You seemed to have your answer already. I do apologize for being abrupt and an asshole, however.

    The NHL wants to grow the market in Asia, yet won’t do so for a 2-week break. They want more cut into the profit of such tournaments and advertising their players and game (gaining interest), yet also want their players in North America making them money without such a break. They want all plusses here, and don’t want compromise that could potentially provide better avenues for such plusses anyway.

    Obviously the IIHF and IOC want to see their own plusses so that’s why compromise is within the discussion, or at least should be.

    As for those players, you provided two defencemen and Perry. Who rely on the style of game that favours the smaller Ice.

    Did you miss out on the style of hockey in the 1990s and seemingly presently?

    Now look at how OT excites most fans in the present. Why is that…?

    Faster and more skilled hockey favours larger ice. At least for skilled players. On defence it might prove less exciting, and yes there might not be a positive or negative to scoring quantity (that could come from the equipment and net sizes, and officiating actually doing their job).

    Perhaps compromise on ice size could provide a better balance? In between Olympic and NHL? I mean, owners wouldn’t really like it either way because that’s loss of revenue from seating. But if it helped synthesise ice size internationally maybe it might be an interesting experiment?

    https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/3h6fbm/discussion_brian_burke_advocates_for_increasing/

    When a closed system has particles increasing in size, vibration, and collision speed, the pressure increases.

  138. YKOil says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    WG, how does Seth Jones compare to Larsson on the woodmonies?

    One of my early disappointments with Chia was him not going harder to sweeten the Nuge for Jones trade offer with NSH.

    Is Jones still trending behind Werenski as a D driver in CBJ?

    Possible that we got the better D with Larsson anyway?

    My “What If Chia had sweetened?” trade question has always started with the Hamilton trade – what if Chia had secured Hamilton (with an understanding that Sweeney was probably going to be a dick no matter what)?

    Interesting rabbit hole.

    In regards to the defense, Hamilton had a rough first year in Calgary so maybe the Hall for Larsson trade happens anyways. Maybe Hamilton gets flipped for Trouba. Who knows?

    In regards to Hall, maybe Chia wants Lucic no matter what and so Hall has to go regardless. But what does Chia get for Hall when he isn’t starting from such a negative trade position (given how bad the Oilers needed a RHD)?

    Of all the trades/non-trades that change everything – the Hamilton non-trade is the biggie.

    The second biggest “what If?” for me is the Versteeg signing. What if Chia hadn’t cheaped out? Does Drai get all his points if Versteeg gets extended auditions on McDavid’s RW (which means, with Drai’s bonus carry-over, does the Versteeg contract essentially covers itself)? If Versteeg works out at all I have to think we don’t do the Davidson trade because Drai is at C more often.

    All that said – we are in the play-offs, making a great run for the division title and the only teams in conference that scare me are (in order): Chicago, Nashville, Minnesota and Anaheim.

    Loving it.

  139. YKOil says:

    Professor Q:

    Faster and more skilled hockey favours larger ice. At least for skilled players. On defence it might prove less exciting, and yes there might not be a positive or negative to scoring quantity (that could come from the equipment and net sizes, and officiating actually doing their job).

    Perhaps compromise on ice size could provide a better balance? In between Olympic and NHL? I mean, owners wouldn’t really like it either way because that’s loss of revenue from seating. But if it helped synthesise ice size internationally maybe it might be an interesting experiment?

    When a closed system has particles increasing in size, vibration, and collision speed, the pressure increases.

    I have always though that the league missed out, in a big way, in the 80’s/90’s when the rinks in Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit et al were all being replaced/being looked at for replacement.

    The old rinks were tiny and the NHL could have mandated that all new rinks were Olympic sized and that all older inks were grandfathered in until they could be replaced. The vast majority of the league would be on the new sheets by now.

    I have grown used to the NHL lacking a grander vision. Makes life easier that way.

    A nice article:

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1987-10-18/sports/8703190117_1_hard-checks-and-fights-bigger-rink-nhl-fans

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