THE ROAD IS LONG

The final standings are coming into view, and with that the playoff matchups, too. An educated guess today would have the Oilers facing San Jose (their next opponent) and the Flames going up against the Anaheim Ducks, but we might see a trick or two on the way home.

 WITH MANY A WINDING ROAD, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2016: 8-8-0, goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2017: 9-3-1, goal differential +15
  • Oilers in April 2016: 1-1-0, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in April 2017: 1-1-0, goal differential -1 
  • Oilers after 79, 2015-16: 30-42-7, goal differential -42
  • Oilers after 79, 2016-17: 44-26-9, goal differential +30
As impressed as we were with the Anaheim game, the Oilers had their share of problems last night in Los Angeles. Poor coverage, lack of support, an ability to sustain attacks on sorties. It’s tempting to chalk it up to looking past the Kings, but the truth is this Oilers team has had some possession issues and wobble problems throughout the piece. Work to do, miles to go.

 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL

  • At home to: Anaheim (Expected:1-0-0) (Actual: 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Kings, Sharks, Canucks (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • At home to Canucks (Expected: 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 3-1-1, seven points in five games
  • Current results: 1-1-0, two points in two games
Things tend to sort themselves out and last night gives Edmonton some options in terms of deployment. They could still win the division, or finish in second and get home-ice advantage for their first series in a decade. They could also rest Cam Talbot and some of the position players who may be nursing various injuries and maladies. It should be an interesting week.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT 

  • Klefbom-Larsson played a lot and were effective against the grinding Kings forwards. Larsson takes a lot of punishment (and doles out plenty, too) and for me Oscar absorbed a lot in order to calm or slow pace as well. I felt the forwards didn’t help this pairing as much as they should have, seems to be a bit too much space when the blue are down low.
  • Klefbom-Larsson went 12-9 together in 13:31, including McDavid (5-3), Nuge (5-2) and Letestu (8-4). Went 8-1 against Shore-Lewis-Brown, and 3-3 against Kempe-Carter-Iginla in 4 minutes. Also 6-1 in 4 minutes against Pearson-Kopitar-Toffoli, it would have been good to see this pairing against the Carter or Kopitar line more often (spent 7 minutes against Lewis).
  • Sekera-Russell looked good to my eye, you can chime in and offer insight and I  promise to read it. Sekera made a brilliant defensive play during the early power play and moved the puck smartly. Russell isn’t going to get many accolades from Oilers fans, but he is mobile and can move the puck while also playing defense. Veteran defensemen are valuable items. They need a righty here next season, but Russell has been a capable stopgap measure.
  • Sekera-Russell were 14-13 in 14:21, including 7-4 with McDavid and 11-7 with Nuge. The pairing faced Pearson-Kopitar-Toffoli (5-5 in 5 minutes), Shore-Lewis-Brown (11-1 in 5 minutes) and Kempe-Carter-Iginla (5-3 in 4 minutes).
  • Nurse-Benning had a whole lotta wobble and I do think Benning isn’t 100 percent. Injuries are a funny thing, we see them, acknowledge them, and then forget about them. I like Benning, he’s a game rooster, but he would be a player to consider giving some time off this week. As for Nurse, he is a young player and last night is an example of growing pains in real time. I’ve been watching young defensemen for decades and the trick is patience, that and making sure some progress is being made. In Nurse’s case, steps forward have been taken this season, but last night serves as a sober reminder of how long the journey can be with youngsters.
  • Nurse-Benning went 4-10 in 7:57 and were ineffective on very many defensive sorties. Nurse was more successful with Larsson (1-1 in 2:12), Sekera (2-0 in 1 minute) and Russell 2-1 in 1 minute). Pairing lost the Corsi battle against all lines faced, but were only caved (0-6 in two minutes) by the Clifford-Dowd-Brodzinski trio. I would guess a 100 percent chance of Gryba on Thursday.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 21 of 26, .808, he was not sharp and that matched some of the men in front of him.
  • Numbers via HockeyStas.ca and NHL.com. Natural StatTrick supplies the lines/pairing Corsis.

MCDAVID LINE

  • McDavid got loose early and it led to the first goal of the game. After that, the Kings used home ice to their advantage and worked hard to make sure CMD didn’t get much clean air. He still had five shot attempts and a point, but that’s shy of recent performances. McDavid has 95 points in 79 games now, I like his chances to reach 100.
  • Leon Draisaitl had a strange night, some of his passes were errant or found the wrong side, and he couldn’t corral a pass in his own zone and further could not mark his man on the Pearson goal.
  • Patrick Maroon did all of his usual things but they didn’t work out. I think he was fine, some days are diamonds, some days are stone.
  • Line went 10-13 together, and faced the Forbort-Doughty pairing for 11:19 (68 percent of McDavid’s time at 5×5). The 97 trio went 8-12 against them. Also had trouble with Johnny Brodzinski (0-7) in what is best described as a curio.

NUGE LINE

  • Nuge played his best game of the season, and now stands at 79, 18-23-41 for the year. It has been a disappointing season, but a strong finish and a strong postseason could offer redemption.
  • Milan Lucic scored his 20th goal of the season last night, he is ripping up the power play and not scoring on the 5×5. His totals run out of time with his career.
  • Jordan Eberle paid the price and was rewarded with an assist, with a little better luck maybe he would have made the scoreboard more than once. I am really liking his game, that assist featured hard work and finesse, in equal parts.
  • Trio went  11-9 against Muzzin-Martinez in 8 minutes, and were 8-2 against the Carter line.

LETESTU LINE

  • This line is usurping the 3line’s playing time, on merit. The two young wingers are coming along and Letestu is acting as the Pisani (without the offense).
  • Line went 5-1 against McNabb-Ladue.

DD LINE

  • I haven’t looked at DD’s Oil road splits but his overall season numbers show a large discrepancy in performance.
  • Benoit Pouliot is back to being his rambunctious self, I hope he has a massive playoff.
  • Zack Kassian keeps doing things that help his team. Hard to believe we once said what we said about him. The penalty miles from home was not wise.
  • Line went 3-9 against McNabb-Ladue, that Ladue kid is very mobile.
  • I think we might see Caggiula get another shot in the middle if this line continues to have defensive and coverage issues.

JUJHAR KHAIRA

Jujhar Khaira has been sent to Bakersfield, probably a combination of conditioning stint and ringer for the playoff run. He played just three games in March, that’s not going to get it done and he’s entirely useful in Bakersfield. Using Eric Rodgers’ latest numbers, here’s Khaira’s AHL playing card:

  • Boxcars: 24, 8-10-18
  • Evens: 24, 5-7-12
  • Power Play: 24, 2-3-5
  • Penalty Kill: 24, 1-0-1
  • ESGF-GA: 18-15
  • SH GF-GA; 1-2
  • Estimated TOI per game: 22:50
  • Estimated points-per-60: 1.97

The achilles for most of the young Condors forwards is going to be offense, but Khaira has improved year over year by the boxcars. Rodgers numbers from a year ago suggested 2.05/60, so he is running in place based on the estimates. Khaira’s AHL offense suggests we are looking at NHL Kyle Brodziak offensively, and he brings some other elements, too. Khaira hasn’t been the same since injury, but playing time in the AHL should get him productive again. Condors play tonight in Texas, big game.

GRYBA?

I don’t think we’ll see Nurse-Benning tomorrow night and I really don’t like the idea of splitting up the current top pairings. What to do? Eric Gryba is 7D so he’s the only option, but I do wonder if the Oilers might call up Mark Fayne at some point. If this third pairing becomes a black hole, and we know young defensemen can go walkabout at times, Fayne is my option for the job. He’s a better player than Gryba.

STANDINGS

A lot happened last night, and it brought tremendous clarity to the table. The Flames are now playing for wild-card seeding, either No. 7 or No. 8 in the Western Conference. Edmonton’s game against San Jose tomorrow night is likely for second place, but if Anaheim stumbles against Chiago and the Oilers win out, they could take the division.

There is still a slight chance for Edmonton-Calgary in the first round, but the Oilers would need to win the Pacific to do it.

SCORING LEADERS

There was a time, not so very long ago, when the scoring race was a flat out tie. Just weeks later, Connor McDavid hit overdrive and we are here. I’m not going to say it’s over, Sidney Crosby is an impact player in every game he’s in and Patrick Kane is breathtaking when on a hot streak. That said, 97 leads by a touchdown as we head to work this morning.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Live from Northlands this morning, it’s a blast at the Ford World Men’s Curling Championships and it’s a pleasure to be there. At 10 this morning, scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Last night’s game, where do the Oilers go if the young blue continues to wobble, playoff prediction metrics.
  • Dennis Nowicki, Northern Alberta Curling Association. Youth is being served at this year’s Worlds, both on the ice and in the stands. We’ll talk about growing the sport.
  • Andrew Stoeten, Jays Nation. Melvin Upton, Smoak, opening day roster.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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167 Responses to "THE ROAD IS LONG"

  1. Whatif says:

    I was hoping that the game last night would yield a different result. However, the Oilers simply did not have their A-game. This is, in part, attributable to the play of the Kings.

    What I do find encouraging and so different from recent seasons is that they did not simply roll over and concede the 2 points. They continued to battle and worked hard.

    That, in and of itself, is a revelation. It speaks to the leadership core of the team. When the Nuge and Eberle play like they did last night this team has the potential to have a good playoff. I would suspect that other Pacific teams are a little bit nervous about facing the Oilers and that is a good thing.

  2. DBO says:

    Funny how we all have our favourites, especially the coach. But man I dream of solid two way play with Lander and Fayne in for Desharnais and Benning/Gryba. No way Lander would bring less then Desharnais, while also having better defensive awareness(an issue for the smallish centre), mnore physical ability in regards to battling the big centres of Anaheim and San Jose (our two likely playoff opponents) and a huge boost to our PK (which has been much worse without Lander in the lineup) and not to mention winning faceoffs in our own zone, allowing the top 2 lines to focus more on offense and giving McClellan two defensive centres who can be relied upon to win an own zone faceoff. And I agree with LT, while not being in the Fayne fanclub, he brings a more solid presence to the third pairing then Benning or Nurse and would allow Nurse to roam as needed.

    #FreeAnton
    #UnleashFayne

  3. McNuge93 says:

    Home ice against San Jose would be great. It isn’t clear about Thornton’s injury but sounds like he’ll be back. Maybe a little extra motivation for the team to win a series for TMac against his old team.

  4. Woogie63 says:

    I would let Benning and Nurse work their play out over the next three games. We need 7-8 healthy, confident NHL defenseman choices as we head into the play-offs.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams

    z-CHI 28
    x-MIN 22
    x-ANA 21
    x-EDM 18
    x-SJS 17
    x-STL 14
    x-NSH 12-1st wildcard
    x-CGY 12-2nd wildcard
    ——————–
    LAK 4
    WPG 3
    DAL -3
    VAN -10
    ARI -12
    COL -32

    As LT said, CGY is locked into a wildcard spot. NSH is probably the other one, but that’s not 100% yet.

    With 2 games vs VAN EDM *probably* ends up 2nd and hosts SJS.

    With Couture still not skating, Thornton’s knee not good and Jones SV% trending down, that’s a good match up imo.

    If Fowler is out, and Lindholm and Vatanen still out, CGY might get really lucky if they finish in the 1st wildcard.

    Not sure how serious those 3 Dmen are hurt, but that’s 3 of your top 4 and I don’t think any team can survive that. If any can, its ANA as they are deep on D and run 3 quality lines.

    WC games tonight:

    None

  6. verite says:

    Simply a heartless and gutless team
    Nurse is not a hockey player
    Kings play real men, Oilers not so much

  7. Dino says:

    I respectfully disagree with you lowetide, Maroon and Kassian struggled to me. Their game is about heavy forechecking, they barely did that all night. Maroon couldn’t complete a pass to save his life and had zero shots on goal in 15 min of ice time on a line with Mcdavid, that’s unacceptable. Kassian made a nice pass to nuge but that’s about it, also zero shots and did nothing in the offensive zone.

    They weren’t the only problems but that 1st and 3rd line must’ve stayed in Edmonton while the 2nd and 4th came to play. Disappointing.

  8. stephen sheps says:

    It’s a little crazy to think about all the flack that Nuge, Ebs and Lucic have taken this year and yet that line has been producing almost enough to salvage their seasons. Lucic has 20 goals, inflated by some unusual but not altogether unexpected PP success, Nuge is closing on 20 himself and Ebs is just shy of 50 points. These aren’t necessarily Steve Austin worthy numbers, but that’s solid second line production and they seem to be coming together/peaking at the right time – which is exactly what you’d hope to see out of 3 veteran players.

    Nuge’s 2nd goal last night was f’ing magic and it shows he has another gear. That kind of overall performance from the 2 line, give or take a few classic ‘Eberle-too-soft-during-board-battles’ moments, gives me a lot more confidence about the team going into the playoffs.

    I feel for Benning. He’s had a really strong rookie year, but between all the injuries and the number of games he’s played, I think it makes sense to drop him down to rotational 7D for the moment. Gryba’s no screaming hell, but he’s been more active lately and his positioning and strength in the D-zone gives Nurse a bit more cover to freelance and he rarely makes big mistakes. Benning was victimized 3 times last night, which considering the overall body of work isn’t terrible, but he needs a re-set. Nothing wrong with that. He’s a big part of the reason why the team is better this season and was a tremendous acquisition, but something isn’t right.

  9. mattwatt says:

    I understand that everyone has some biases. In case of Oilers management, they believe that Anton Lander will not be an NHL player. Given Lander’s performance when called up, not sure they are wrong.

    However, not sure they are right either. Given that Desharnais seemingly gets his teeth kicked in defensively, a lot, would it hurt to run Anton as the anchor on that line? Furthermore, what is the probability of that happening? Get that Desharnais is Chia’s pickup, but at some point don’t you ask the question about Lander vs. Desharnais? Or is that a conversation not worth having?

    Long time listener, first time caller. Will wait for all of your answer’s off air.

  10. season not played says:

    1360min 20G 25A 45 PTS -6 23 PP points 197 Hits. Intimidating leader

    1335min 19G 33A 52 PTS -6 14 PP points 56 Hits. Punk

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    x-WSH 35
    x-PIT 30
    x-CBJ 27
    y-MTL 22
    x-NYR 21-1st wildcard
    x-BOS 14
    OTT 15
    TOR 14-2nd wildcard
    —————–
    TBY 9
    NYI 9
    PHI 5
    CAR 5
    FLA -2
    BUF -3
    DET -4
    NJD -9

    TBY and Dougie’s team need to win out and get help. Pretty thin at this point, but TOR had a 4-1 lead in the 3rd of game 7 in 2013 too. Hehe.

    TOR plays TBY, PIT and CBJ. Losing all 3 is more than possible.

    OTT plays BOS, NYR, and NYI. Losing all 3 is more than possible.

    TBY plays TOR, MTL and BUF. Winning all games is possible.

    NYI plays CAR, NJD, and OTT. Winning all 3 is certainly possible.

    I hope it comes down to the last day.

    EC games tonight:

    MTL at BUF – Doesn’t matter one iota

    NYR at WSH – WSH still looking to lock down the Conference, almost there.

  12. Ducey says:

    You a stubborn man, LT!

    I know you love your Fayne, but Fayne over Gryba? Gryba has been playing just fine. He is faster and more physical than Fayne. Both of them struggle with the fancy stuff.

    And how do you know Benning’s issues are injury? Prospects rarely develop in a straight line. They are the very definition of inconsistent. Benning would normally have finished the season a month ago in college. He has played more hockey than he ever has, at a much higher level. He could be tired, he could be struggling with confidence, and/ or he could be having trouble with the level of play this late in the season. These are all more likely than him struggling with some sort of post concussion symptoms from a concussion more than a month ago.

  13. frjohnk says:

    season not played:
    1360min 20G 25A 45 PTS -6 23 PP points 197 Hits. Intimidating leader

    1335min 19G 33A 52 PTS -6 14 PP points 56 Hits. Punk

    Dont have a clue who each player is but rather have the guy who can score better at even strength.

    But thats not factoring in contract either. If punk has a contract that pays him to mid to 30’s at a high cap hit, while the intimidating leader has a value contract that would change my decision.

  14. Alpine says:

    How about Lander centering the kid line and moving The Tube up between Pou and Kass? I know 55 seems pretty weak at evens but he might do better with some more experienced line mates and add a little more defense to that line. I don’t mind DD but some of the underliers are concerning.

  15. Professor Q says:

    Technically McDavid leads by a Touchdown and PAT, LT. 😉

  16. Professor Q says:

    frjohnk: Dont have a clue who each player is but rather have the guy who can score better at even strength.

    But thats not factoring in contract either.If punk has a contract that pays him to mid to 30’s at a high cap hit, while the intimidating leader has a value contract that would change my decision.

    Hall vs. Lucic.

    Someone’s trying to be funny.

  17. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    So is anyone worried that Dadbot is posting an .896 over the last 5 games?

    I’m not one that buys the “he’s tired” argument at face value but then again he hasn’t looked sharp since the back to back shutouts a few weeks ago.

    Also fun to note that coming off of two days rest is actually where Dadbot has his worst GAA and SVP numbers.

    Rest is the Devil!

  18. Stud Muffin says:

    Gryba is better than Fayne, it’s not even a discussion imo.

  19. Bruce Wayne says:

    stephen sheps,

    Lucic has been awful all year. He is getting all his points as a free rider on the powerplay, where his contribution could be easily be filled by Maroon or Kassian. There is no added value there. Those points are, for the most part, replacement points, a function of the opportunity. He hasn’t played tough either. He doesn’t hit. He barely fights. He’s cashing checks and sitting at the head of the table showing leadership. He hasn’t gotten anywhere near the criticism he deserves.

    RNH and Eberle, on the other hand, have played reasonably well considering their competition and their most common linemate. They’ve vastly outscored Lucic at even strength and their overall point totals are reduced because they play so much less on the power play than they used to. Their reduced points are also, mostly, a function of opportunity (Eberle especially).

    Putting those three in the same box mischaracterizes their performance.

  20. Side says:

    Stud Muffin:
    Gryba is better than Fayne, it’s not even a discussion imo.

    Excellent insight. I had never thought of it that way before. I’m convinced!

  21. Pouzar says:

    Never trust a man with 2 first names.

  22. unca miltie says:

    Pouzar:
    Never trust a man with 2 first names.

    Love it

  23. who says:

    Last nights game showed us where the holes on this team are.
    1. Anyone suggesting Benning as 2RD next season needs to give their head a shake. We heard the same sort of comments about Davidson last year and he struggled to make our top six this year. The fact is , unless we are trading Eberle for Hamonic this summer, Russell is looking like a pretty good option for that position again next year. Assuming the amount and term is reasonable on a new contract. Say what you want about him, but he competes every night and has some calm moments with the puck. I like the Russell reset.
    2. Anyone who talks about resigning DD should ask the person closest to them to slap them. Pretty clear to me why Montreal wasn’t playing this guy. He is an improvement over Cags at center but that is not a high bar. Would undo this trade if I could.
    3 . Our first line is magic when they have the puck. Not so much when they don’t. Especially in our end.

  24. Pouzar says:

    unca miltie: Love it

    And remember that dude ‘Brett Wade’ in that one Three’s Company episode?
    What a D-Bag!

  25. Chachi says:

    Bruce Wayne: Lucic has been awful all year. He is getting all his points as a free rider on the powerplay, where his contribution could be easily be filled by Maroon or Kassian. There is no added value there. Those points are, for the most part, replacement points, a function of the opportunity. He hasn’t played tough either. He doesn’t hit. He barely fights. He’s cashing checks and sitting at the head of the table showing leadership. He hasn’t gotten anywhere near the criticism he deserves.

    None of this is true, but you know that, which makes it worse.

  26. Chachi says:

    Pouzar:
    Never trust a man with 2 first names.

    This is an incontrovertible fact.

  27. Georges says:

    What did Mark Fayne do or not do? His 5v5 numbers compare to Sekera’s last season. He’s 29 years old. He shoots right. Please help.

  28. Pouzar says:

    Michael Parkatti‏ @mparkatti 42s42 seconds ago
    More
    With last night’s games, the Oilers now have an 81.3% chance of playing San Jose in the first round. So how’s Couture’s face again?

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Last year:

    Fayne 36% TOI vs Elite (mostly w/ Sekera)
    Raw DFF% 38.1%
    DFF% RelComp -6.5%
    Raw CF% 44.1%
    CF% RelComp -1.90

    Gryba 29% TOI vs Elite (mostly with Davidson, Reinhart then Nurse)
    Raw DFF% 44.1%
    DFF% RelComp -0.50%
    Raw CF% 44.8%
    CF% RelComp -0.80%

    Last year Gryba’s results were better vs Elite than Fayne using both CF and DFF and that’s with lesser partners as well, although Davidson was unreal good last year.

    Fayne hasn’t played enough this year, but Gryba’s numbers are:

    Gryba 27% TOI vs Elite (mostly with Davidson, Reinhart then Nurse)
    Raw DFF% 47.1%
    DFF% RelComp -0.30%
    Raw CF% 50.8%
    CF% RelComp +3.1%

    That’s a pretty good result from your #7.

    If we just used results vs WoodMoney Elite Forwards, then Gryba is the superior player to Fayne last year and is having a good year this year.

  30. stephen sheps says:

    Bruce Wayne,

    Agree to disagree my friend. I don’t believe Lucic has been great but he hasn’t been replacement level bad either. The funny thing here is that you speak of opportunities. Lucic has been given an incredible gift this season, playing with McDavid on PP1. 23 of his 45 points have been on the PP, including some really skilled plays and a few Ryan Smyth style in-off-the-ass types of goals. But they all count. I’m 100% with you in many of your critiques of both his play this season and especially that contract (it’s terrible), but he’s producing in the minutes he’s given, particularly lately and it’s nice to see because the team really needs him.

    RNH and Ebs are in a different class; the comp was made purely because they play on a line together and no other reason.

  31. Scungilli says:

    who:
    Last nights game showed us where the holes on this team are.
    1. Anyone suggesting Benning as 2RD next season needs to give their head a shake. We heard the same sort of comments about Davidson last year and he struggled to make our top six this year. The fact is , unless we are trading Eberle for Hamonic this summer, Russell is looking like a pretty good option for that position again next year. Assuming the amount and term is reasonable on a new contract. Say what you want about him, but he competes every night and has some calm moments with the puck. I like the Russell reset.
    2. Anyone who talks about resigning DD should ask the person closest to them to slap them. Pretty clear to me why Montreal wasn’t playing this guy. He is an improvement over Cags at center but that is not a high bar. Would undo this trade if I could.
    3 . Our first line is magic when they have the puck. Not so much when they don’t. Especially in our end.

    Young centres have coverage issues like young D. Connor really needs someone to watch his back defensively because he is so aggressive offensively. Leon also has a ways to go IMO – of course they are destroying all comers, but there is still maturation needed.

    Quality veteran support is what the core – Connor, Leon and Jesse – need.

    Games like last night show it is better to be solid defensively than rely on bring able to outscore, especially in the playoffs. LT gave a prime example a few days ago about how one of the greatest teams of all time had to reign it in to win. Amazing talent wasn’t enough against a top notch opponent equally determined.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    So maybe we should look at Sekera from this year to last.

    Last year with Fayne and Nurse mostly
    37% TOI vs Elite Forwards

    Raw DFF% 44.3%
    DFF% RelComp -1.2%
    Raw CF% 45..3%
    CF% RelComp -0.1%

    This year:
    36% vs Elite Forwards – mostly with Russell and Benning

    Raw DFF% 46.83%
    DFF% RelComp -0.4%
    Raw CF% 45..6%
    CF% RelComp -0.9

    Slightly better on DFF this year, same on CF, which is actually worse given the team is better (rels)

    Let’s look at Russell and Benning this year:

    Russell
    36% TOI vs Elites

    Raw DFF% 47.5%
    DFF% RelComp -0.7%
    Raw CF% 43%
    CF% RelComp -3.7

    Benning

    32% TOI vs Elite
    Raw DFF% 48.8%
    DFF% RelComp +2.3%
    Raw CF% 50.3%
    CF% RelComp +3.6

    So Russell is better than Fayne DFF wise, but not CF wise. That’s a current debate in fancystats btw. Corsi predicts future goals a hair better, but only a hair, and maybe not over the last 2 years.

    Benning is better than Fayne both DFF wise and CF wise, but hasn’t been the same since his injury.

    As good as his numbers look here, they’ve slid since the injury.

  33. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Last year:

    Fayne 36% TOI vs Elite (mostly w/ Sekera)
    Raw DFF% 38.1%
    DFF%RelComp -6.5%
    Raw CF% 41.6%
    CF% RelComp -1.90

    hockeyanalysis says that Fayne’s 5v5 raw CF% was 49.1 last season. So, if for 36% of his TOI, he had a raw CF% of 41.6, then for the rest of his TOI, he had to be:

    x = (49.1 – 41.6 * .36) / .64

    x = 53.3

    That’s not bad, is it?

  34. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Scungilli,

    Meh I think that is reading too much into it. LA’s stars for the most part were kept at bay but a bunch of the guys looking for roster spots next year upped their game in what was essentially meaningless for both sides.

    I’m not saying the Oilers should ever take a game off nor does it excuse the very rough night for Benning/Nurse but aside from the 2nd Line and Sleppy everyone looked a little off after the 1st period last night.

    I’m not going to draw a lot of conclusions from that one especially once the zebra’s put the whistle’s away.

    Aside about reffing:

    I love that the phrase “playoff hockey” is code for “screw the rules do whatever you can get away with and the ref’s won’t care.” No other sports league has that kind of skewed logic to the officiating of postseason games but alas the NHL has always liked to buck the trend haha.

  35. season not played says:

    Nothing funny about it.

    Any player that cries to the media about what he has been crying to the media about is a punk in my books.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    What did Mark Fayne do or not do? His 5v5 numbers compare to Sekera’s last season. He’s 29 years old. He shoots right. Please help.

    SIr,

    You are not my answer monkey, but I have a request because I know you have the data.

    Correlation between team CF% and GF% as well as xGF% (corsica.hockey) and GF% over however long your data base is.

    Possible?

  37. Pouzar says:

    Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli 52s53 seconds ago
    More
    #Pens announce D Kris Letang is out for the remainder of the season, including playoffs. Letang will undergo nick surgery for herniated disc

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: hockeyanalysis says that Fayne’s 5v5 raw CF% was 49.1 last season. So, if for 36% of his TOI, he had a raw CF% of 41.6, then for the rest of his TOI, he had to be:

    x = (49.1 – 41.6 * .36) / .64

    x = 53.3

    That’s not bad, is it?

    41.6% was a mistake, will go back and fix it.

    Fayne CF% last year

    vs Elite 44.1
    vs Middle 50.3
    vs Grits 55.4

  39. Wolfie says:

    The Oilers might not have been sharp but the game did follow the trend of strong 1st period followed by a lull in the 2nd. With the game in the balance the Kings upper their energy but I feel this is where the poor officiating had it’s impact. The Kings had carte blanche. There were a couple of ticky tack calls against. It was 7-5 out there from about midway through the 2nd.

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 41.6% was a mistake, will go back and fix it.

    Fayne CF% last year

    vs Elite 44.1
    vs Middle 50.3
    vs Grits 55.4

    Based on the verbal from McLellan last year it was Mr. TheBear’s “box protection” that was the issue.

    The DFF% back that up.

  41. treevojo says:

    Pouzar:
    Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli52s53 seconds ago
    More#Pens announce D Kris Letang is out for the remainder of the season, including playoffs. Letang will undergo nick surgery for herniated disc

    Just heard that on hockey central at noon.

    That is huge.

    He was there best player in the playoffs last year if you ask me.

  42. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: SIr,

    You are not my answer monkey, but I have a request because I know you have the data.

    Correlation between team CF% and GF% as well as xGF% (corsica.hockey) and GF% over however long your data base is.

    Possible?

    Now answer, monkey!

  43. Silver Streak says:

    Allan Mitchell, …..Would you put on your special tin hat, and wiretap those offices on Kingsway……whats the latest on Spencer Foo ??? Its about time…his center signed 5 days ago….he sounds like the right guy to fill out our RW weakness.

  44. Pouzar says:

    treevojo: Just heard that on hockey central at noon.

    That is huge.

    He was there best player in the playoffs last year if you ask me.

    Better strap them big boy skates on Justin. 🙂

  45. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Pouzar:
    Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli52s53 seconds ago
    More#Pens announce D Kris Letang is out for the remainder of the season, including playoffs. Letang will undergo nick surgery for herniated disc

    Wow! I was thinking one of Pittsburgh or Washington would walk away with it, maybe Chicago. Jultz up to #1RD, don’t like their odds anymore at all.

  46. treevojo says:

    Pouzar: Better strap them big boy skates on Justin.

    Funny that’s exactly what I was thinking.

    Can you say exposed.

  47. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Shouldn’t have two guys as raw as Benning and Nurse together. How has Benning been without Nurse since the concussion?

    Don’t think Gryba or Fayne should be the long-term bet, but I’d take either over Benning going into the playoffs.

    Think going into next year:
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Benning
    Nurse- X
    Reinhart

    Franson? Think you need a 2-way guy with over 300GP (is it 200GP?) for Nursey

  48. verite says:

    the board ignores reality
    The Oilers cannot man up
    The Kings are team of real men, coached to demand physical play and great goaltending
    Oilers exposed for what they are weak willed , soft and carrying players who simply not hockey players, see Nurse

    This game is the reality
    Doughtly and Sutter must be laughing at them , pussies forever

  49. Chachi says:

    treevojo: Funny that’s exactly what I was thinking.

    Can you say exposed.

    Jultz’s last 5 games: 1 assist, -5. Getting way too many minutes now.

  50. RexLibris says:

    Last night was a learning exercise for the Oilers.

    Even I thought it was over at 2-0 the way LA’s offense has struggled this year. But the Kings pushed and the Oilers found their old habits once again.

    I didn’t watch the third period because I had switched over to the Flames game and got caught up watching a hockey game turn into a three-ring bloodsport circus.

    Flames are going to face Anaheim in the first round, it seems, and if they play on the Oilers’ off-nights I would highly recommend watching that series. It is going to be vicious.

    Giordano probably ended Fowler’s season with a knee-on-knee hit from the side. It was the dirtiest I’ve seen Giordano hit and he is certainly no choirboy.

    Oilers will face the Sharks and I think that is the best bet here. Both are cerebral teams with solid goaltending (as opposed to ANA/CGY who are both pit-sticking gangs with a moral compass that is absent a needle) and if they can catch a break and face the Sharks down one of either Couture or Thornton then so much the better.

    On another note, I can’t read this title (and subtitles) without thinking of hearing this song on 8-track in the car or watching this commercial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6rO3TGDAHs

    Long indeed.

  51. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: SIr,

    You are not my answer monkey, but I have a request because I know you have the data.

    Correlation between team CF% and GF% as well as xGF% (corsica.hockey) and GF% over however long your data base is.

    Possible?

    Hey, I thought you were an Excel jockey like me. corsica makes this easy peasy. Nevertheless, here you go.

    Correlation between 5v5 CF% and GF%:

    07-08 .62
    08-09 .53
    09-10 .52
    10-11 .51
    11-12 .72
    12-13 .31
    13-14 .65
    14-15 .59
    15-16 .35
    16-17 .37

    Correlation between 5v5 xGF% and GF%:

    07-08 .62
    08-09 .60
    09-10 .47
    10-11 .46
    11-12 .68
    12-13 .42
    13-14 .66
    14-15 .72
    15-16 .43
    16-17 .60

    For good measure, here’s the correlation between this season’s CF% and next season’s GF%:

    07-08 .26
    08-09 .34
    09-10 .56
    10-11 .58
    11-12 .35
    12-13 .50
    13-14 .43
    14-15 .55
    15-16 .44

    And between this season’s xGF% and next season’s GF%:

    07-08 .19
    08-09 .43
    09-10 .50
    10-11 .38
    11-12 .35
    12-13 .50
    13-14 .52
    14-15 .67
    15-16 .64

    And, finally, between this seasons’s GF% and next season’s GF%:

    07-08 .35
    08-09 .23
    09-10 .56
    10-11 .58
    11-12 .37
    12-13 .54
    13-14 .47
    14-15 .64
    15-16 .34

  52. PhrankLee says:

    Lucic has produced points in a role that has gone unfilled for years on the Oilers.

    The hulking fwd with good hands screening the G.

    He has been as responsible for the PP improving year over year as any of CMD, Talbot or Letestes.

  53. Woogie63 says:

    When was the last game Nuge “put the team on his back” and carried us to a victory?

  54. GMB3 says:

    I sometimes wonder if Oesterle might be a better dmen than Nurse and Benning

  55. McNuge93 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Wow! I was thinking one of Pittsburgh or Washington would walk away with it, maybe Chicago. Jultz up to #1RD, don’t like their odds anymore at all.

    What, isn’t Schultz a former Norris winner.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    I dont like Desharnais game one bit. Plays like a rookie in his own end, and not a good rookie. Other than a 5 game spike in production hes not doing much. Instead of possibly losing Davidson in the expansion draft looks like we lose Davidson and Reinhart

  57. GMB3 says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    stephen sheps,

    Lucic has been awful all year.He is getting all his points as a free rider on the powerplay, where his contribution could be easily be filled by Maroon or Kassian.There is no added value there.Those points are, for the most part, replacement points, a function of the opportunity.He hasn’t played tough either. He doesn’t hit. He barely fights.He’s cashing checks and sitting at the head of the table showing leadership.He hasn’t gotten anywhere near the criticism he deserves.

    RNH and Eberle, on the other hand, have played reasonably well considering their competition and their most common linemate.They’ve vastly outscored Lucic at even strength and their overall point totals are reduced because they play so much less on the power play than they used to.Their reduced points are also, mostly, a function of opportunity (Eberle especially).

    Putting those three in the same box mischaracterizes their performance.

    For a guy who loves to prove his own meandering sentiments with stats you should probably look at the # of hits Lucic has.

    But let me guess? Hits don’t matter, just like wins don’t matter (lol)

  58. GMB3 says:

    Does anyone remember when Bruce Wayne said wins weren’t a good indicator of success? I do. Good times. He just wants ELPH

  59. Georges says:

    Chachi: Jultz’s last 5 games: 1 assist, -5. Getting way too many minutes now.

    You are so not a Schultz fan.

    What if the PIT geniuses win another Cup with JS playing first pair?

    They have the second best record in the league with him playing first pair for a big stretch, after all. Despite all their injuries.

    Although the team that’s ahead of them are the defending Presidents’ Trophy champs. That’s something to worry about.

  60. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s 2016-17 Oilers Death March Update for 5.4.17:

    Today’s leaders predicted 101 points. Today’s three leaders are:

    Treevojo

    Skook

    Orange and Blue

  61. Chachi says:

    Georges: You are so not a Schultz fan.

    What if the PIT geniuses win another Cup with JS playing first pair?

    They have the second best record in the league with him playing first pair for a big stretch, after all. Despite all their injuries.

    Although the team that’s ahead of them are the defending Presidents’ Trophy champs. That’s something to worry about.

    I was actually quite happy for him turning his career around and was looking forward to the added bonus of a team blowing a giant hole in their salary cap giving him too much money and expecting him to play first pairing for them next year. Letang’s last game was February 21st, check out Schultz’s splits since then. Never count out a team with Crosby and Malkin though, right?

  62. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce Wayne: RNH and Eberle, on the other hand, have played reasonably well considering their competition and their most common linemate.

    Common? I always thought Lucic came across as being somewhat refined.

  63. hunter1909 says:

    Woogie63:
    When was the last game Nuge “put the team on his back” and carried us to a victory?

    Never?

    Besides, Bruce Wayne says wins aren’t important.

  64. season not played says:

    GMB3:
    Does anyone remember when Bruce Wayne said wins weren’t a good indicator of success? I do. Good times. He just wants ELPH

    That “genius” G Money said the same thing.

  65. frjohnk says:

    season not played: That “genius” G Money said the same thing.

    GMoney was a very intelligent poster here.

    A great follow on Twitter.

    Not sure why you feel you must put players and posters down with ever comment you make.

    If it’s not trolling then you probably need some help.

    I have some great contacts in EFAP that would definitely help you out.

  66. sliderule says:

    It seems to my eye that Benning has struggled against the teams with heavy forwards .
    I was very surprised to see him dress over Gryba last night.
    Nurse still loses more board battles than he will when he totally fills out so he is not a good partner for a Benninig type.
    Benning can play against the Canucks but I doubt he will hit the ice against Sharks either on Thursday or playoffs.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: Hey, I thought you were an Excel jockey like me. corsica makes this easy peasy. Nevertheless, here you go.

    Correlation between 5v5 CF% and GF%:

    07-08 .62
    08-09 .53
    09-10 .52
    10-11 .51
    11-12 .72
    12-13 .31
    13-14 .65
    14-15 .59
    15-16 .35
    16-17 .37

    Correlation between 5v5 xGF% and GF%:

    07-08 .62
    08-09 .60
    09-10 .47
    10-11 .46
    11-12 .68
    12-13 .42
    13-14 .66
    14-15 .72
    15-16 .43
    16-17 .60

    For good measure, here’s the correlation between this season’s CF% and next season’s GF%:

    07-08 .26
    08-09 .34
    09-10 .56
    10-11 .58
    11-12 .35
    12-13 .50
    13-14 .43
    14-15 .55
    15-16 .44

    And between this season’s xGF% and next season’s GF%:

    07-08 .19
    08-09 .43
    09-10 .50
    10-11 .38
    11-12 .35
    12-13 .50
    13-14 .52
    14-15 .67
    15-16 .64

    And, finally, between this seasons’s GF% and next season’s GF%:

    07-08 .35
    08-09 .23
    09-10 .56
    10-11 .58
    11-12 .37
    12-13 .54
    13-14 .47
    14-15 .64
    15-16 .34

    Thanks!

    I’m decent in excel for a few things.

    Correlations is not among them.

    Will have to learn how.

  68. Georges says:

    Chachi: I was actually quite happy for him turning his career around and was looking forward to the added bonus of a team blowing a giant hole in their salary cap giving him too much money and expecting him to play first pairing for them next year. Letang’s last game was February 21st, check out Schultz’s splits since then. Never count out a team with Crosby and Malkin though, right?

    I checked. Schultz better hope he doesn’t play the Flyers or Hawks in the playoffs. They’re very mean to his +/-. And your preferred scenario is much more likely if JS is 2-time Cup Winner JS. At some point, you’ve gotta wonder, though.

  69. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Formula:

    = correl(col1, col2)

    e.g.,

    = correl(A5:A34, B5:B34)

  70. season not played says:

    frjohnk,

    After the amount of gum flapping G Money was doing last summer it’s regrettable he can not be here to answer for it.

    Thank you for your concern.

  71. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: I was actually quite happy for him

    I hate his weasel face.

    I know. I hate myself.

  72. season not played says:

    frjohnk,

    At least with the amount of gum flapping you were doing about the same thing last summer you finally came around the other day and admitted it.

  73. cubro says:

    who:
    Last nights game showed us where the holes on this team are.
    1. Anyone suggesting Benning as 2RD next season needs to give their head a shake. We heard the same sort of comments about Davidson last year and he struggled to make our top six this year. The fact is , unless we are trading Eberle for Hamonic this summer, Russell is looking like a pretty good option for that position again next year. Assuming the amount and term is reasonable on a new contract. Say what you want about him, but he competes every night and has some calm moments with the puck. I like the Russell reset.
    2. Anyone who talks about resigning DD should ask the person closest to them to slap them. Pretty clear to me why Montreal wasn’t playing this guy. He is an improvement over Cags at center but that is not a high bar. Would undo this trade if I could.
    3 . Our first line is magic when they have the puck. Not so much when they don’t. Especially in our end.

    HYPOCRITE. First you say that Davidson isn’t good enough to crack the top 6, so he is an extra and not a key piece, then you go on to say that DD IS an improvement over Caggs. BUT you also want to do the trade over? Good Gord

  74. russ99 says:

    The reason Fayne is out is simple, over two years he’s not been able to adapt to McLellan’s defensive systems, and he leaks bad chances against.

    The other metrics are fine, but it he’s leaving Talbot in a lurch and leaking two goals a game, He’s hurting a lot more than he’s helping, which is especially no go in the playoffs when goals are harder to come by.

    Gryba gets it and puts in solid, tough, unspectacular play, although the winging the puck to nobody in the D zone at times doesn’t help.

  75. frjohnk says:

    season not played:
    frjohnk,

    After the amount of gum flapping G Money was doing last summer it’s regrettable he can not be here to answer for it.

    Thank you for your concern.

    Yeah, he had to “flap his gums” as he was being attacked. Knowing he is pretty good guy, I’d say he probably wrote some stuff that he regretted.

    But he more than manned up by graciously leaving this blog.

    That can’t be said for the others who were swinging from the other side.

    We lost an absolute “genius” hockey mind here and we are not better off.

    I wonder if there are any more “genius” posters on here that have been invited to watch a NHL game by the Oilers and discuss stats.

  76. pocession charge says:

    Pouzar:
    Michael Parkatti‏ @mparkatti42s42 seconds ago
    So how’s Couture’s face again?

    Ugly as always.

  77. treevojo says:

    season not played:
    frjohnk,

    At least with the amount of gum flapping you were doing about the same thing last summer you finally came around the other day and admitted it.

    Doesn’t seem right that you are still allowed to post here and Gmoney isn’t.

  78. Bruce Wayne says:

    For those who demand loyalty above all else, I have this observation.

    The path to the Western Conference finals is wide open. The Sharks are decimated by injuries and in a free fall, the Ducks just lost Fowler and if the Ducks and Flames play in the first round it is going to be a war.

    This sets up very nicely. The playoffs is a war of attrition and the Oilers are entering incredibly healthy and have the easiest first round matchup.

  79. season not played says:

    frjohnk: Yeah, he had to “flap his gums” as he was being attacked. Knowing he is pretty good guy, I’d say he probably wrote some stuff that he regretted.

    But he more than manned up by graciously leaving this blog.

    That can’t be said for the others who were swinging from the other side.

    We lost an absolute “genius” hockey mind here and we are not better off.

    I wonder if there are any more “genius” posters on here that have been invited to watch a NHL game by the Oilers and discuss stats.

    He was being attacked because of some of the ridiculous things he was writing.

  80. classict says:

    Chachi: Jultz’s last 5 games: 1 assist, -5. Getting way too many minutes now.

    I guess this is true but how many dmen in the league will do well when the team is missing 3 of their top 6?

    Does Klefbom put up nice numbers with Larsson, Sekera, and Russel all hurt?

  81. pocession charge says:

    russ99:
    The reason Fayne is out is simple, over two years he’s not been able to adapt to McLellan’s defensive systems, and he leaks bad chances against.

    The other metrics are fine, but it he’s leaving Talbot in a lurch and leaking two goals a game, He’s hurting a lot more than he’s helping, which is especially no go in the playoffs when goals are harder to come by.

    Gryba gets it and puts in solid, tough, unspectacular play, although the winging the puck to nobody in the D zone at times doesn’t help.

    I agree completely with this post. Gryba is a solid #7 who only gets in trouble when he tries to do too much with the puck. LT loves Fayne but that ship has sailed — he.s not coming back to Edmonton (to play hockey anyway).

  82. classict says:

    GMB3:
    Does anyone remember when Bruce Wayne said wins weren’t a good indicator of success? I do. Good times. He just wants ELPH

    They certainly aren’t necessarily a good predictor of future success. And that’s the point anyone who says that is making.

    And unless you’re loading up for a cup run I think future success should always be considered when making moves.

  83. pocession charge says:

    Bruce Wayne:
    For those who demand loyalty above all else, I have this observation.

    The path to the Western Conference finals is wide open.The Sharks are decimated by injuries and in a free fall, the Ducks just lost Fowler and if the Ducks and Flames play in the first round it is going to be a war.

    This sets up very nicely.The playoffs is a war of attrition and the Oilers are entering incredibly healthy and have the easiest first round matchup.

    Now just admit that you love Lucic and we’ll all sleep soundly tonight.

  84. classict says:

    Does anyone notice the D seem to be activating in the O-zone a lot more lately? And not just the usual suspects. Over the last few games I’ve noticed guys like Russell and Larsson doing it as well.

    Coaching? Confidence? A mix of both?

  85. Craig Zonit says:

    season not played:
    frjohnk,

    At least with the amount of gum flapping you were doing about the same thing last summer you finally came around the other day and admitted it.

    If that “gum flapping” is forwarding theories, backed by rigourous statistical evidence, from an astounding database that he built from the ground up, then count this infrequent poster as an advocate for more gum flapping.

  86. Bruce Wayne says:

    season not played: He was being attacked because of some of the ridiculous things he was writing.

    Ridiculous things that happen to be true.*

    *Note, I have no idea what you are referring to here, since Gmoney doesn’t have any ideas that I would consider controversial, let alone ridiculous. Indeed, his evaluation of the Larsson-Hall deal was noteworthy for its attempt to see both sides and to evaluate them in an even handed manner. He hated it a lot less than some.

    Thus, not only do you have no idea what you are talking about regarding the substantive issues, your reading comprehension abilities seems to be severely challenged.

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Now answer, monkey!

    😀

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Formula:

    = correl(col1, col2)

    e.g.,

    = correl(A5:A34, B5:B34)

    Thanks George!

  89. ashley says:

    They wouldn’t let Benning play with even a hint of post concussion symptoms. He’s fine, but I think we got carried away with a small sample of data in his first 40 games or so. Even an entire year of data can be considered a small sample which is why it’s not worth getting upset about things like RNH’s low boxcars. We could all see through the data that Benning had lots of wobble, typical of an NHL rookie Dman.

    Despite Benning’s regression to reasonable (from meteoric), he has had a tremendous rookie year and there is much to be excited about with this player. Exactly what this team needed for now and the future.

  90. ashley says:

    I’d like to see Desharnais with some different linemates. I think it might be fun to watch him with Eberle and CMD. Or with Eberle and RNH. I think there is value there.

  91. Lowetide says:

    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    The Condors have signed 2015 @EdmontonOilers draft pick Ziyat Paigin to an ATO. He’ll wear number 26. #Condorstown #GetIN

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GMB3:
    Does anyone remember when Bruce Wayne said wins weren’t a good indicator of success? I do. Good times. He just wants ELPH

    season not played: That “genius” G Money said the same thing.

    GMB, seasonnotplayed.

    He is right.

    If you want to predict who is going to win match ups in the playoffs, the last thing you use is standings points.

    The best individual metric I know is score adjusted unblocked shot attempt share (Score Adjusted Fenwick) from March 1-end of season.

    The second best individual metric I know is season long goal differential.

    If you look at the last 3 playoffs you will see that:

    1) SCAF% (score adjusted Fenwick %) predicted the winner of playoff matchups 33 of 45 for 75%

    2) Goal Differential predicted the winner of playoff matchups 27 of 45 for 60%

    3) Standing Points predicted the winner of playoff matchups 21 of 45 for 47%

    Wins are not a good indicator of playoff success.

    They actually suck, so you are both coming across as Luddites here.

    Also,

    This is stuff that is known around here (wins don’t mean as much as people think) for a long time.

    I’m not sure how long GMB3 has been posting here, but I know seasonnotplayed has been posting here long enough to have seen this evidence and other evidence like it, which is why shot metrics are valued here.

    I really wish seasonnotplayed would just stop posting here or at the very least stop trolling.

    You do not try to add to the conversation but simply deride others and troll.

    If you hate this type of hockey analysis and conversation so much, why come to a forum that enjoys it and uses it for the basis of conversation?

    It makes no sense.

    You are not changing anyone’s mind.

    You are just making this place less friendly for people who gather here because they enjoy the reading and the company.

    This forum is worse for having lost Gmoney, not better.

    That you think otherwise doesn’t surprise me.

  93. Whatif says:

    With the restructuring of the D corps this year it has allowed the Oilers to play much more sound defense. This is critical because, with the skill level of their forwards, if they get an equal number of offensive opportunities as their opponents, they are likely to get better results.

    Having reliable defense and defensive systems (D corps + goalie) allows the offensive players to take over. If we can play even up with our opponents defensively then McDavid, Draisaitl, Maroon, RNH, Eberle, Lucic et al will be likely to out score the opposition.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors2m2 minutes ago
    MoreThe Condors have signed 2015 @EdmontonOilers draft pick Ziyat Paigin to an ATO. He’ll wear number 26. #Condorstown #GetIN

    WWWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!

    GIANT RUSSIAN DMEN FTW!!!!

    Great that he came over!

    Just freaking great.

    I wish him well.

  95. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: I hate his weasel face.

    I know. I hate myself.

    I understand your position on this. There was quite a bit of “Lupul” in Jultz’s play for the Oilers towards the end of his run here.

  96. Chachi says:

    classict: I guess this is true but how many dmen in the league will do well when the team is missing 3 of their top 6?

    Does Klefbom put up nice numbers with Larsson, Sekera, and Russel all hurt?

    Better than Jultz would I believe.

  97. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce Wayne: Ridiculous things that happen to be true.*

    *Note, I have no idea what you are referring to here, since Gmoney doesn’t have any ideas that I would consider controversial, let alone ridiculous.Indeed, his evaluation of the Larsson-Hall deal was noteworthy for its attempt to see both sides and to evaluate them in an even handed manner.He hated it a lot less than some.

    Thus, not only do you have no idea what you are talking about regarding the substantive issues, your reading comprehension abilities seems to be severely challenged.

    Great post.

  98. Chachi says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors2m2 minutes ago
    MoreThe Condors have signed 2015 @EdmontonOilers draft pick Ziyat Paigin to an ATO. He’ll wear number 26. #Condorstown #GetIN

    I wonder if this is partly fallout from the NHL’s Olympics decision. Any UFA and maybe some RFA Russian defencemen who think they have a shot at making the Olypmic team are going to play in the KHL next year. If even one of those players makes his way to Paigin’s team he might get less icetime than he got this year. Better to come over to North America now and give it a shot.

  99. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    This forum is worse for having lost Gmoney, not better.

    This cannot be overstated. A massive loss.

  100. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors2m2 minutes ago
    MoreThe Condors have signed 2015 @EdmontonOilers draft pick Ziyat Paigin to an ATO. He’ll wear number 26. #Condorstown #GetIN

    That’s great.

    Will be nice to see how Mantha and he fare at the end of this year in the A. I’ll be watching a few of those games.

  101. hunter1909 says:

    classict: I guess this is true but how many dmen in the league will do well when the team is missing 3 of their top 6?

    Does Klefbom put up nice numbers with Larsson, Sekera, and Russel all hurt?

    Methinks what this is about is the fact the Oiler fanbase for the most part aren’t huge Justin Schultz fans.

    Now that Schultz is about to be without Letang, he’s getting bumped up the lineup, just like he enjoyed in Edmonton. Many Oiler fans, myself included have a morbid curiosity whether or not this player is going to implode as a Penguin, come playoffs.

    Being an Oiler fan is weird. You find yourself looking back on certain players that got run out of town by the Lowe+MacT Axis of Evil, and realise that some of them you actually joined in on the mobset mentality. Mine is Riley Nash; a perfectly intelligent and probably okay dude who quite rightly hated the thought of seeing his career destroyed by the Lowe+MacT Axis of Evil; yet I found myself screaming blue murder at his decision not to risk his career in order to help bring about a successful Oilers team – something that theoretically could be described as a miracle.

  102. leadfarmer says:

    Im so glad Gmoney moved on so we could add space for more trolls.

  103. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors2m2 minutes ago
    MoreThe Condors have signed 2015 @EdmontonOilers draft pick Ziyat Paigin to an ATO. He’ll wear number 26. #Condorstown #GetIN

    Awesome bit of bring proactive there. Nicely done.

  104. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    GMB, seasonnotplayed.

    He is right.

    If you want to predict who is going to win match ups in the playoffs, the last thing you use is standings points.

    The best individual metric I know is score adjusted unblocked shot attempt share (Score Adjusted Fenwick) from March 1-end of season.

    The second best individual metric I know is season long goal differential.

    If you look at the last 3 playoffs you will see that:

    1) SCAF% (score adjusted Fenwick %) predicted the winner of playoff matchups 33 of 45 for 75%

    2) Goal Differential predicted the winner of playoff matchups 27 of 45 for 60%

    3) Standing Points predicted the winner of playoff matchups 21 of 45 for 47%

    Wins are not a good indicator of playoff success.

    You’re giving Bruce Wayne too much credit. He wasn’t talking about playoff wins. He said wins in the regular season and the statistical improvements on the ice did not matter because Hall was traded, more or less.

    This was one of Bruce’s “no matter how many cups we win it won’t matter. Chia traded Hall which means we would have had more cups. Wins aren’t a good indicator of success!” rants that people are referencing.

  105. season not played says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wins are not a good indicator of playoff success. I would ask if you are out of your mind but I understand the point you are trying to make.

    I think if a team wins 16 games in the playoffs they have been pretty successful.

    This is your point. We are arguing different things. You are saying wins are not a good indicator of future success.

    I am saying wins are a great indicator of current success.

  106. pocession charge says:

    I was thinking about LT’s personal Oilers first team All-Stars. I imagine it would look something like:

    Pisani-Pouliot(Marc-Antoine)-Weir

    Huddy-Fayne

    How close am I?

  107. season not played says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    GMB, seasonnotplayed

    Also,

    This is stuff that is known around here (wins don’t mean as much as people think) for a long time.

    I’m not sure how long GMB3 has been posting here, but I know seasonnotplayed has been posting here long enough to have seen this evidence and other evidence like it, which is why shot metrics are valued here.

    I really wish seasonnotplayed would just stop posting here or at the very least stop trolling.

    You do not try to add to the conversation but simply deride others and troll.

    If you hate this type of hockey analysis and conversation so much, why come to a forum that enjoys it and uses it for the basis of conversation?

    It makes no sense.

    You are not changing anyone’s mind.

    You are just making this place less friendly for people who gather here because they enjoy the reading and the company.

    This forum is worse for having lost Gmoney, not better.

    That you think otherwise doesn’t surprise me.

    Also,

    Stop being such a baby.

  108. spoiler says:

    frjohnk: Yeah, he had to “flap his gums” as he was being attacked. Knowing he is pretty good guy, I’d say he probably wrote some stuff that he regretted.

    But he more than manned up by graciously leaving this blog.

    That can’t be said for the others who were swinging from the other side.

    We lost an absolute “genius” hockey mind here and we are not better off.

    I wonder if there are any more “genius” posters on here that have been invited to watch a NHL game by the Oilers and discuss stats.

    This.

    I know I spend less time here b/c GMoney isn’t around any more. So this has cost LT traffic and thus income, perhaps significantly. But that’s the nature of trolls. They hate seeing someone else be successful, get recognized etc. and take delight in upsetting the applecart.

    Civility too, it’s a thing. When I don’t see it, I just assume the poster is compensating for some “shortcoming” in real life.

  109. Lowetide says:

    season not played: He was being attacked because of some of the ridiculous things he was writing.

    He was attacked because some decided not to do the work required to understand. I get the idea that new ideas and information can be a threat to what we hold as true, but that’s how we grow. When we attack, we show both a lack of decorum and that we are not open to new ideas, or able to comprehend them. I’ve spent 15 years reading posts like yours, they are not unique. Unique is GMoney, and we are less without him.

  110. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I follow Gmoney on twitter and think he’s a great follow, but I stumbled upon this blog around the time G-money departed.

    My comments weren’t a knock on using different types of statistics and/or metrics to predict future success. I’m referring to batman discrediting all the success of this years team because wins don’t matter, and using this as an argument against the Hall trade.

    And I understand how different metrics predict playoff success, but speaking in general terms this year has been a huge success for the Edmonton Oilers and saying that wins don’t matter is ridiculous. We are in a position where we could win the division, not the draft lottery. I don’t see how that’s not success, or how wins aren’t representative of success…

    In combination with the fact he refers to posters he doesn’t like as “the filthy and uneducated hordes of oilersnation posters” (maybe I’m paraphrasing but he’s said some ridiculous shit in the past). Frankly I’ve never encountered many people irl who speak to others the way he does (the joys of anonymity). So I think his comments are a huge F’ing joke. Especially if Chia, lucic, or the Hall trade are involved.

    Sorry if I crossed any lines here.

  111. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors2m2 minutes ago
    MoreThe Condors have signed 2015 @EdmontonOilers draft pick Ziyat Paigin to an ATO. He’ll wear number 26. #Condorstown #GetIN

    This is fantastic news in and of itself, demonstrating a pretty clear commitment to come to North America next season.

    As for this season, is he able to play in the remaining AHL regular season games? AHL playoff games? Is he eligible to be brought up to the Oilers for this playoff run in the nightmare scenario where the mini-bus transporting the Oiler d-corps gets into a fender-bender and we have a swath of players out d-t-d? 🙂

  112. bendelson says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If you look at the last 3 playoffs you will see that:
    1) SCAF% (score adjusted Fenwick %) predicted the winner of playoff matchups 33 of 45 for 75%
    2) Goal Differential predicted the winner of playoff matchups 27 of 45 for 60%
    3) Standing Points predicted the winner of playoff matchups 21 of 45 for 47%

    SCAF% is good but if you include the Bendelson effect, you can bump those numbers over 80%.
    IT’S A FACT!

    frjohnk: I wonder if there are any more “genius” posters on here that have been invited to watch a NHL game by the Oilers and discuss stats.

    Still waiting for the call…

  113. GMB3 says:

    Side: You’re giving Bruce Wayne too much credit. He wasn’t talking about playoff wins. He said wins in the regular season and the statistical improvements on the ice did not matter because Hall was traded, more or less.

    This was one of Bruce’s “no matter how many cups we win it won’t matter. Chia traded Hall which means we would have had more cups. Wins aren’t a good indicator of success!” rants that people are referencing.

    This! Thank you.

  114. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: He was attacked because some decided not to do the work required to understand. I get the idea that new ideas and information can be a threat to what we hold as true, but that’s how we grow. When we attack, we show both a lack of decorum and that we are not open to new ideas, or able to comprehend them. I’ve spent 15 years reading posts like yours, they are not unique. Unique is GMoney, and we are less without him.

    Painted like a Rembrandt.

  115. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors2m2 minutes ago
    MoreThe Condors have signed 2015 @EdmontonOilers draft pick Ziyat Paigin to an ATO. He’ll wear number 26. #Condorstown #GetIN

    Awesome oppossum!

  116. GMB3 says:

    I’m a fan of all the work that’s been done in regards to advanced stats and the way a lot of people here analyze the game. I appreciate the work of many posters here.

    My comments weren’t a jab at that.

  117. --hudson-- says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors2m2 minutes ago
    MoreThe Condors have signed 2015 @EdmontonOilers draft pick Ziyat Paigin to an ATO. He’ll wear number 26. #Condorstown #GetIN

    Just noticed he played on the same team as Alexei Semenov last season, another 6’6″ russian defencemen the Oilers drafted almost 20 years ago. Really hope Paigin can get his big shot off more quickly then Semenov. I remember he had a couple huge seasons in the OHL but couldn’t make the transition.

  118. Georges says:

    Chachi: Better than Jultz would I believe.

    Yikes. I admire your confidence in Talbot and our forward group. May we never have to find out.

  119. Ducey says:

    –hudson–: Just noticed he played on the same team as Alexei Semenov last season, another 6’6″ russian defencemen the Oilers drafted almost 20 years ago.Really hope Paigin can get his big shot off more quickly then Semenov.I remember he had a couple huge seasons in the OHL but couldn’t make the transition.

    The odds are he will not make it.

    Regardless, its good news. At least there is a better chance of having him develop in the AHL/ ECHL than being benched in the KHL. Looks like he only played 17 games this year and it seemed he got little ice time when he did play.

    *Cue comment about how the Oilers don’t play their prospects in the AHL enough anyway.

  120. Lowetide says:

    Guy Flaming‏Verified account @TPS_Guy 2h2 hours ago
    More
    Guy Flaming Retweeted Troy Gillard
    Evan Polei is a nice addition for the #Oilers farm. Blue collar worker always showed up to play against the #OilKings.

  121. Georges says:

    hunter1909: Methinks what this is about is the fact the Oiler fanbase for the most part aren’t huge Justin Schultz fans.

    Now that Schultz is about to be without Letang, he’s getting bumped up the lineup, just like he enjoyed in Edmonton. Many Oiler fans, myself included have a morbid curiosity whether or not this player is going to implode as a Penguin, come playoffs.

    Being an Oiler fan is weird. You find yourself looking back on certain players that got run out of town by the Lowe+MacT Axis of Evil, and realise that some of them you actually joined in on the mobsetmentality. Mine is Riley Nash; a perfectly intelligent and probably okay dude who quite rightly hated the thought of seeing his career destroyed by the Lowe+MacT Axis of Evil; yet I found myself screaming blue murder at his decision not to risk his career in order to help bring about a successful Oilers team – something that theoretically could be described as a miracle.

    Your thinking per 60 is world class.

  122. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: I understand your position on this. There was quite a bit of “Lupul” in Jultz’a play for the Oilers towards the end of his run here.

    And you name #1 on my all time Oiler Shit List.
    Well done.

  123. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: WWWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!

    GIANT RUSSIAN DMEN FTW!!!!

    Great that he came over!

    Just freaking great.

    I wish him well.

    Better shave down dem sideburns Z.

  124. Pouzar says:

    Ryan Holt Retweeted Bakersfield Condors
    He’s in Texas with the team, but won’t play tonight. It’s ZEE-yat, PIE-gahn for those into pronounciations.Ryan Holt added,

    Ryan Holt‏ @CondorsHolty 1h1 hour ago
    More
    Paigin hasn’t played in over a month, but had a very good season last year in the #KHL. Speaks pretty good English as well.

  125. The Hermit says:

    Brothers and Sisters, remember PLAYOFFS!!!

    Edit: Transgenders also, remember PLAYOFFS!!!

    All my bathrooms can be used by anyone 😁

  126. Chachi says:

    Georges: Yikes. I admire your confidence in Talbot and our forward group. May we never have to find out.

    I take it you are a fan of Schultz? Do you think his last two years in Edmonton were not a good representation of what he is capable of when slotted into a top two role? To steal a little from Woodguy I think Jultz is basically Michael Del Zotto, but was fortunate enough to land on a really great team.

  127. frjohnk says:

    Friedmans 30 thoughts are out.

    The Olympic decision may have foiled the plans for the Oilers to add a forward asset from the KHL

    “And word is several potential Russian free agents were considering staying home, knowing they have an increased chance to play a larger role on an Olympic Team without NHLers. That includes Vladimir Tkachyov, a centre who was being pursued by the likes of Edmonton, New Jersey and Toronto. It appears less likely he will leave the KHL. ”

    No its not MacT’s Tkachev. This guy is 6 feet, 203 pounds, scored 32 points in 58 games

  128. classict says:

    hunter1909: Methinks what this is about is the fact the Oiler fanbase for the most part aren’t huge Justin Schultz fans.

    Now that Schultz is about to be without Letang, he’s getting bumped up the lineup, just like he enjoyed in Edmonton. Many Oiler fans, myself included have a morbid curiosity whether or not this player is going to implode as a Penguin, come playoffs.

    And that’s a totally reasonable curiosity, I’m the same. My point was more so that Letang has only played 41 games all year and Schultz has been fine for much more than 41.

    If someones looking at these last 5 games as the beginning of an implosion it’s likely because the Pens are currently missing a lot more than just Letang. I don’t think it really says all the much about Schultz.

  129. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: And you name #1 on my all time Oiler Shit List.
    Well done.

    Lupul should be #1 on everyone’s all time Oiler Shit List.

  130. RexLibris says:

    I’m glad to see Piagin come over to Bakersfield. They’ve really stocked up lately adding Gambardella, Mantha and others.

    Condors are one spot ahead of the dastardly Heat (CGY farm team) in the AHL standings right now and air-dropping a bunch of talent late like this will, I hope, push them ahead for the playoffs.

    With regards to Piagin, I want him to make his NHL debut next season on a HNIC game and score a bomb from the point and lay a massive hit in the defensive zone. Why? Because I want to hear what Don Cherry does to his name.

    Also the goal and the hit.

  131. GMB3 says:

    How’s mantha’s skating?

  132. RexLibris says:

    GMB3:
    How’s mantha’s skating?

    Not sure. Most scouting reports are at least five years old, but given the defense they’ve added and those they’ve demoted, I’d say that he must at least be better than Musil for Chiarelli to have been willing to sign him.

  133. B S says:

    season not played:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wins are not a good indicator of playoff success. I would ask if you are out of your mind but I understand the point you are trying to make.

    I think if a team wins 16 games in the playoffs they have been pretty successful.

    This is your point. We are arguing different things. You are saying wins are not a good indicator of future success.

    I am saying wins are a great indicator of current success.

    Your moving the goal posts. Whether intentional or not that is a troll tactic. You’re not arguing anything about current wins, because your posts have been about statements by Gmoney (conflated with statements by BW, which are related but tangential). No one on this site has said you can’t celebrate wins (some have said you shouldn’t, then gone on to complain about Eberle losing a “soft” puck battle while being swamped by two 230lb goons in a corner and how it means we’ll never win a cup).

    Gmoney least of all. His posts were respectful and lucid before posters with no understanding of the game, let alone statistics (the two things this forum has been built upon) persistently argued with him through proof texting, false anecdotes, and ad hominem attacks. I’ve posted on here a lot less since he left (some of which may be due more to big schooling changes). I also miss VOR too, if we’re pining for past posters.

    The argument put forth was that shooting and goal stats presented are better predictors of future wins (Woodguys post that you replied to), That means that while current wins are important for current success (such as leading in the Division), you’re better off using other stats to predict how the Oilers will do in the playoffs. Yes the Oilers need to win those games, but their wins/ points standings so far won’t tell you if they will.

    In other words, if we want to know how our team will do in the playoffs, wins now aren’t as important as goal differential and Score adjusted fenwick.

    Enjoy the wins as they come, that’s what being a fan is about, but don’t belittle those who try to add depth to their understanding of the game through rigorous data analysis.

  134. classict says:

    I don’t know if anyone’s mentioned this post on hockey graphs from yesterday but I found it pretty cool. It’s sort of relevant given the McDavid-Draisaitl one line or split them up conversation that was going on yesterday. Warning math:

    Identifying Playing Styles with Clustering

    It’s definitely still just exploratory but it seems like a good start. At there very bottom there’s a link to take a look at all the data and players. Both McDavid and Drai come out as playmakers which is no surprise.

  135. Woogie63 says:

    Paigin, Mantha, Bear, Jones, Beker and Simpson learning on the farm next year. Sounds like Condors
    will be developing players in a development league. is this Gretzky’s handy work?

  136. Georges says:

    Chachi: I take it you are a fan of Schultz? Do you think his last two years in Edmonton were not a good representation of what he is capable of when slotted into a top two role? To steal a little from Woodguy I think Jultz is basically Michael Del Zotto, but was fortunate enough to land on a really great team.

    Schultz’s play in those years has been dissected often enough here. The more I see of the numbers around defensemen, the more it’s clear to me that most defensemen take a while to manage their TOI. And while they’re learning, they’ll make costly mistakes. So you need to do your best to limit the damage, because the time invested in building their experience pays off in the long run. Schultz wasn’t ready for his role. He was sold to the fanbase as a special player that was ready.

    We each cheer our own way. I like comebacks. JS was extremely fortunate to land with PIT, a really great team. But I think he’s added to that really great team; he hasn’t been a net negative or a zero.

    We’re also on track as an organization to be a really great team. We have a superstar and we’re taking the first years of his career seriously. It’s all very promising. We’re becoming a confident group that will be part of other players’ comebacks; sort of already there with Maroon. I believe Maroon has also added to this team.

    I don’t share WG’s view of JS. I look at whether Sullivan trusts him or not. Because trust and performance go hand in hand. To me, it looks like he does. He’s out of options. No sheltering JS for this playoff run. I guess we’ll see.

    Hunter got the psychology right. I can’t think of any other word to better describe checking in to see if Schultz is going to implode than morbid.

  137. Chachi says:

    Georges: Schultz’s play in those years has been dissected often enough here. The more I see of the numbers around defensemen, the more it’s clear to me that most defensemen take a while to manage their TOI. And while they’re learning, they’ll make costly mistakes. So you need to do your best to limit the damage, because the time invested in building their experience pays off in the long run. Schultz wasn’t ready for his role. He was sold to the fanbase as a special player that was ready.

    We each cheer our own way. I like comebacks. JS was extremely fortunate to land with PIT, a really great team. But I think he’s added to that really great team; he hasn’t been a net negative or a zero.

    We’re also on track as an organization to be a really great team. We have a superstar and we’re taking the first years of his career seriously. It’s all very promising. We’re becoming a confident group that will be part of other players’ comebacks; sort of already there with Maroon. I believe Maroon has also added to this team.

    I don’t share WG’s view of JS. I look at whether Sullivan trusts him or not. Because trust and performance go hand in hand. To me, it looks like he does. He’s out of options. No sheltering JS for this playoff run. I guess we’ll see.

    Hunter got the psychology right. I can’t think of any other word to better describe checking in to see if Schultz is going to implode than morbid.

    Oh, there is no doubt that it is morbid curiosity. It will be very interesting to see how things go for Pittsburgh and for Jultz.

    Edit to add: What, other than morbid curiosity kept Oilers fans watching games past November in all the seasons post 2006 cup run and B.C. (before Connor)?

  138. rickithebear says:

    Dmen’s primary role?
    Anyone?
    Anyone?

    Defend!

    Good ones
    1. keep the corsi against x,y (caused by Forward and Off D procession loss) outside the HD area.
    2. Block the corsi
    3. Force misses.
    such that they end up with an high (Elite) shot suppression %.
    as
    well as Great HD numbers.
    4. Transition the puck to one of the 330-420 forwards that are superior in generating CF and by the very structure of hockey play do not sacrifice defence when penetrating HD Area.

    Nurse was f…. god awful last night.
    he was the complete opposite of what an elite Dman should be.
    But hey he got 2 points.
    but was personally responsible for 3 goals.

  139. Spoils says:

    I was at the game, and you could feel the momentum and bounces going to LA. That said, they scored 4 goals against a team that usually has a tough time scoring. If the D and Talbot had a better game, the Oilers win.

  140. Georges says:

    Chachi: Oh, there is no doubt that it is morbid curiosity. It will be very interesting to see how things go for Pittsburgh and for Jultz.

    You are way too self-aware, way too cool. It is who you are.

  141. Pink Socks says:

    Lowetide:
    Bakersfield Condors‏Verified account @Condors2m2 minutes ago
    MoreThe Condors have signed 2015 @EdmontonOilers draft pick Ziyat Paigin to an ATO. He’ll wear number 26. #Condorstown #GetIN

    This is terrific news. Paigin, Bear, Jones, and Mantha!

  142. Professor Q says:

    Georges: You are way too self-aware, way too cool. It is who you are.

    It’s why Joanie loves him.

  143. Chachi says:

    Georges: You are way too self-aware, way too cool. It is who you are.

    Ha! I am many things (including wrong about everything) but “cool” is not one of them. Now who wants to get a bigger boat and hunt some friggin’ sharks!!!!

  144. Pink Socks says:

    –hudson–: Just noticed he played on the same team as Alexei Semenov last season, another 6’6″ russian defencemen the Oilers drafted almost 20 years ago.Really hope Paigin can get his big shot off more quickly then Semenov.I remember he had a couple huge seasons in the OHL but couldn’t make the transition.

    Paigin gets the shot off quickly. I tuned into 8-10 games when he was in the lineup this year as well as a few last season with Sochi. He QB’d the PP for both teams and had some very remarkable moments. He had some defensive issues this season and bounced back and forth from VHL and KHL for the second half of the season. He is quick for a big guy in a straight line, average lateral movement, but is not overly physical. I strongly believe the smaller NA rink will help him tremendously. Really looking forward to seeing him in Bakersfield soon to see how he adjusts.

  145. Pink Socks says:

    season not played: Also,

    Stop being such a baby.

    Ugh. This comes down to perception vs. reality.

    BW truly believes his perception is reality, but it is mostly opinion. He thinks things through but I disagree with a good portion of his opinions and that is okay.

    Like some others, I found this heavenly corner of the internet a few months before GMoney left so I can’t fully comment. I can say, without a doubt, that his perception is backed up with fact, thus making it a reality.

  146. Professor Q says:

    Now, I think this will good for Bakersfield, especially for a playoffs run. Young Guns in, and hopefully they get time in lieu of the veterinarians.

    Gambardella, Polei, Puljüjarvi, Mantha, Paigin, Ellis, and hey, the good veterans in Khaira and Lander.

    Then later on Bear and Jones.

    We might not have space for them all!

    Let alone the possibility of Foo and other rumoured signings.

  147. OilClog says:

    rickithebear:
    Dmen’s primary role?
    Anyone?
    Anyone?

    Defend!

    Good ones
    1. keep the corsi against x,y (caused by Forward and Off D procession loss) outside the HD area.
    2. Block the corsi
    3. Force misses.
    such that they end up with an high (Elite) shot suppression %.
    as
    well as Great HD numbers.
    4. Transition the puck to one of the 330-420 forwards that are superior in generating CF and by the very structure ofhockey play do not sacrifice defence when penetrating HD Area.

    Nurse was f…. god awful last night.
    he was the complete opposite of what an elite Dman should be.
    But hey he got 2 points.
    but was personally responsible for 3 goals.

    How many elite Dman play on the third pairing around the league?

    Last I checked Talbot was in the net for roughly 59:35 or so of the game, so Nurse was in the least not the only player on the ice during the goals against.

    Was Nurse perhaps trying to do too much with an ineffective injured partner?

    His numbers look pretty good for the shifts with Larsson, Sekera, and Russell.

    Nurse was your typical 3rd pairing defender last night in a tough situation, not sure how he was personally responsible for the goals against, team game.

    113gp…

  148. Glass says:

    Any thoughts on Polei? Him signing an ATO with the Condors has been overshadowed by Paigin.

  149. frjohnk says:

    Pink Socks: Paigin gets the shot off quickly.I tuned into 8-10 games when he was in the lineup this year as well as a few last season with Sochi.He QB’d the PP for both teams and had some very remarkable moments.He had some defensive issues this season and bounced back and forth from VHL and KHL for the second half of the season.He is quick for a big guy in a straight line, average lateral movement, but is not overly physical.I strongly believe the smaller NA rink will help him tremendously.Really looking forward to seeing him in Bakersfield soon to see how he adjusts.

    I remember a few of your scouting reports of him. They were good reviews, such that it looks like we may have a player.

    Now you are on the spot. If Paigin cant cut the mustard, there are loads of pitchforks and torches laying around here and in my
    *Liam Neeson voice* ” We will find you and” *Homer Simpson voice* “Drink Beer!”

  150. flea says:

    Glass:
    Any thoughts on Polei? Him signing an ATO with the Condors has been overshadowed by Paigin.

    Polei was great for the Rebels in their short playoff this year. Scored an OT goal and a late goal (if not more). He got suspended for a dirty hit in game 6 and didn’t play in game 7 (which the Rebs lost).

    This one looks like a 1 year AHL contract according to Troy Gillard (who covers the Rebels)

    https://twitter.com/Troy_Gillard/status/849679760439496704

    So maybe expect this guy to be at training camp next year.

  151. Lloyd B. says:

    Glass:
    Any thoughts on Polei? Him signing an ATO with the Condors has been overshadowed by Paigin.

    6’1 228 Left winger. Played for Rebels past four years. After that I’ve got nothing.

  152. Mr. D. says:

    , Fayne is my option for the job. He’s a better player than Gryba…give it a rest. This lacks any sense at all.

  153. Johnny skid says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This forum is worse for having lost Gmoney, not better.

    so true.

  154. PhrankLee says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This forum is worse for having lost Gmoney, not better.

    I’ts different, WG. Obviously different. But a poster as productive as G needs his own stage and it’s an excellent one too. All circumstances pointed to him leaving well before that. He could really wheel the posts. Clever, bright; all these. So, so aggressive. And, though I don’t believe him to be personally so, inappropriate at exactly the best example of worst timing I have ever witnessed or read about afterword in any blog. Ever.

    Anyway I guess I feel slightly defensive at the statement that this forum is worse.

  155. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    When was the last game Nuge “put the team on his back” and carried us to a victory?

    Nuge has been playing over 40% of his time on the ice against elite competition (according to Woodmoney) with wingers who haven’t been able to put a puck in the ocean this year (Lucic, Eberle, Pouliot, Kassian). Plus, most of his power play time has been taken away.

    Yet he had nearly 20 goals, and over 40 points.

    If his wingers had been performing at par for their careers, he would have many more assists and probably be well on his way to a 60 point season.

    Give him back his primo power play time, and he would probably have been edging 70.

    Nuge has been been one of the mules carrying the Oilers to the playoffs. The unappreciated mule, even by the coach, who has thrown him under the bus a couple of times this year in post game press conferences.

    I hope Nuge gets to go somewhere where he will be appreciated. He certainly doesn’t appear to be in Edmonton, where the organization and many of the fans are blinded by their new shiny toys

  156. Georges says:

    godot10,

    Nuge’s first goal was damn clever. On his part and on Eberle’s part.

    Nuge’s second goal was beautiful. I’ve watched it 10 times. And the fact he scored a goal like that against Doughty and Quick. So so satisfying.

    The trifecta would have been a wrister to the roof to tie it 4-4. But he missed that one.

    I don’t think TMac has gone on one of those “Hey, Nuge. Why can’t you be more like Drai?” benders in a long while. If he thinks it, he’s kept it to himself.

    I don’t think he thinks it, either. I think the whole regular season, intentionally or not, has been about getting Nuge and Eberle ready for the playoffs.

    I’m going to go out on a very short limb and say they’re ready.

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Craig Zonit: If that “gum flapping” is forwarding theories, backed by rigourous statistical evidence, from an astounding database that he built from the ground up, then count this infrequent poster as an advocate for more gum flapping.

    Post more please.

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pocession charge: This cannot be overstated.A massive loss.

    COME BACK GMONEY!

  159. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    season not played:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wins are not a good indicator of playoff success. I would ask if you are out of your mind but I understand the point you are trying to make.

    I think if a team wins 16 games in the playoffs they have been pretty successful.

    This is your point. We are arguing different things. You are saying wins are not a good indicator of future success.

    I am saying wins are a great indicator of current success.

    You can’t possibly be this obtuse.

    Stop posting.

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    spoiler: This.

    I know I spend less time here b/c GMoney isn’t around any more.So this has cost LT traffic and thus income, perhaps significantly.But that’s the nature of trolls. They hate seeing someone else be successful, get recognized etc. and take delight in upsetting the applecart.

    Civility too, it’s a thing. When I don’t see it, I just assume the poster is compensating for some “shortcoming” in real life.

    COME BACK GMONEY!

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: He was attacked because some decided not to do the work required to understand. I get the idea that new ideas and information can be a threat to what we hold as true, but that’s how we grow. When we attack, we show both a lack of decorum and that we are not open to new ideas, or able to comprehend them. I’ve spent 15 years reading posts like yours, they are not unique. Unique is GMoney, and we are less without him.

    COME BACK GMONEY!

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    B S: Your moving the goal posts. Whether intentional or not that is a troll tactic. You’re not arguing anything about current wins, because your posts have been about statements by Gmoney (conflated with statements by BW, which are related but tangential). No one on this site has said you can’t celebrate wins (some have said you shouldn’t, then gone on to complain about Eberle losing a “soft” puck battle while being swamped by two 230lb goons in a corner and how it means we’ll never win a cup).

    Gmoney least of all. His posts were respectful and lucid before posters with no understanding of the game, let alone statistics (the two things this forum has been built upon) persistently argued with him through proof texting, false anecdotes, and ad hominem attacks. I’ve posted on here a lot less since he left (some of which may be due more to big schooling changes). I also miss VOR too, if we’re pining for past posters.

    The argument put forth was that shooting and goal stats presented are better predictors of future wins (Woodguys post that you replied to), That means that while current wins are important for current success (such as leading in the Division), you’re better off using other stats to predict how the Oilers will do in the playoffs. Yes the Oilers need to win those games, but their wins/ points standings so far won’t tell you if they will.

    In other words, if we want to know how our team will do in the playoffs, wins now aren’t as important as goal differential and Score adjusted fenwick.

    Enjoy the wins as they come, that’s what being a fan is about, but don’t belittle those who try to add depth to their understanding of the game through rigorous data analysis.

    COME BACK GMONEY!

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: Better shave down dem sideburns Z.

    Maybe 2 Russians wears McLellan down?

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    4. Transition the puck to one of the 330-420 forwards that are superior in generating CF and by the very structure of hockey play do not sacrifice defence when penetrating HD Area

    This is known as the “hire Stralman, not Barrie” rule.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pink Socks: Ugh.This comes down to perception vs. reality.

    BW truly believes his perception is reality, but it is mostly opinion.He thinks things through but I disagree with a good portion of his opinions and that is okay.

    Like some others, I found this heavenly corner of the internet a few months before GMoney left so I can’t fully comment.I can say, without a doubt, that his perception is backed up with fact, thus making it a reality.

    COME BACK GMONEY!!

  166. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Johnny skid: so true.

    COME BACK GMONEY!

  167. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PhrankLee: I’ts different, WG. Obviously different.But a poster as productive as G needs his own stage and it’s an excellent one too. All circumstances pointed to him leaving well before that. He could really wheel the posts. Clever, bright; all these. So, so aggressive. And, though I don’t believe him to be personally so, inappropriate at exactly the best example of worst timing I have ever witnessed or read about afterword in any blog. Ever.

    Anyway I guess I feel slightly defensive at the statement that this forum is worse.

    I understand the defensiveness of the forum (my entire diatribe was exactly that), but any thing is less when it loses something.

    This place gets more traffic and more smart people looking at things than many other places that talk about this stuff, so when G is working through some ideas and doesn’t post about them here, we are all losing because we can’t help work it out with him.

    WoodMoney was conceived and born in this forum.

    G is/was very aggressive and doesn’t suffer fools gladly so sometimes this forum isn’t the best mix and he needs to own that.

    That said, most of the posters who aggravated him the most are gone or post infrequently because they found this place not receptive to trolling crap.

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