SHARKNADO

It was one wild ride and there’s an enormous amount to discuss about the 2016-17 season. One problem: NO TIME! The Edmonton Oilers are playoff bound, and the San Jose Sharks will be flying all that hair into good old our town today or tomorrow. It’s playoffs 2017: Gird your loins!

If there’s one thing this city recognizes its greatness. Connor McDavid is an enormous talent, we know this because he does things no one else can. However, we are an unusual lot in that explaining greatness requires specific examples. Connor McDavid was in a flat out tie in the scoring race and the Calgary Flames had caught (and past) the good ship Oil not so very long ago.

In the final stretch of  games, McDavid went hammer of the Gods and scored 28 points in 18 games. Bye Flames, Bye Crosby, Bye Felicia.

NO TIME, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2016: 8-8-0, goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2017: 9-3-1, goal differential +15
  • Oilers in April 2016: 1-1-0, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in April 2017: 4-1-0, goal differential +5 
  • Oilers after 82, 2015-16: 31-43-8, goal differential -43
  • Oilers after 82, 2016-17: 47-26-9, goal differential +36
Edmonton’s season over season numbers are crazy on you! From 70 points in 2015-16, the team finished with 103 this season. Goal differential? +79! In 2015-16, the Oilers were 199-242 (-43) and this season they finished 243-207 (+36). They improved by 44 goals for, and 35 goals against. Outstanding numbers, and worth exploring. If only we had time! We have no time!!!!

 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL

  • At home to: Anaheim (Expected:1-0-0) (Actual: 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Kings, Sharks, Canucks (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual: 2-1-0)
  • At home to Canucks (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 3-1-1, seven points in five games
  • Current results: 4-1-0, eight points in five games
That was an impressive run through the last portion of the schedule, led by Connor McDavid and a few veterans who are rounding into form. Last night was a dominant game by Edmonton, and there’s not much to learn (the Oilers rested several players) so instead of the usual summary I’m going to give a brief thumbnail on key players this season.

THE 2016-17 EDMONTON OILERS (F)

  1.  C Connor McDavid (82, 30-70-100). He is the best hockey player on the planet. There’s no real comment to make, beyond Oilers fans can never bitch about luck until the end of time. Seriously. The power and the glory. His 2.89 5×5/60 ranked No. 1 among forwards who played 1,000 or more minutes this season.
  2. C Leon Draisaitl (82, 29-48-77). Fantastic season and he won the race to become 97’s wingman. His passing is sublime and his size/strength means possession can be maintained longer. We’re still not sure where he’ll play the heart of his career, but this was a season to remember. Finished 2.05/60 5×5 scoring.
  3. R Jordan Eberle (82, 20-31-51). He finished the season with a hat-trick and that allowed him to post another 20 goals (sixth time, including fourth in a row). Eberle recovered handsomely from a poor start and finished the year owning a 1,76/60 number. Impressive down the stretch, he seems to have his quick release back.
  4. L Milan Lucic (82, 23-27-50). An unusual first season with the Oilers ended with some reasonable boxcars. He posted impressive power-play totals and was underwater in 5×5/60 scoring for the year. Late in the season, he showed why he is a unique player with several impressive games. Just 1.22 at 5×5 60, but his 7.04/60 at 5×4 meant he was No. 6 among NHL forwards with 100 or more minutes on the power play.
  5. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (82, 18-25-43). His job 5×5 is to play tough opposition to a standstill and chip in offensively. Nuge fell short this season and it could cost him over the summer (trade). For now, we are seeing some nice progress offensively and hope for a strong postseason. He finished 1.45/60 scoring at 5×5, that represents real progress considered where he was not so long ago.
  6. L Patrick Maroon (81, 27-15-42). Impressive season and one of the true value contracts in the NHL this season. Edmonton will have to make a decision on paying him in the next 10 months, and at age 28 he’s probably a member of the Brett Callighen family. That said, he is a big part of a very successful line and had a strong season. He finished 1.82/60 at 5×5 and delivered 24 5×5 goals ranked him No. 5 league wide among scorers.
  7. C Mark Letestu (76, 16-19-35). A dandy 4C who jumped up as required, Todd McLellan employs Letestu in all manner of ways. Letestu is not a strong 5×5 offensive option (1.33/60) but scored 11 power-play goals plus two shorties. He has chem with Zack Kassian, in case that becomes important.
  8. R Zack Kassian (79, 7-17-24). One of the real revelations about this season. Kassian doesn’t look like the player we saw in Vancouver and Montreal, physically and in terms of performance. He drew a penalty last night on speed and determination, and has an offensive story to tell (1.74/60). He could be a successful 3R on this team next season. Seriously.
  9. F Drake Caggiula (60, 7-11-18). It took him forever and a day to finally catch a wave, but this young man was a late season delight. Went 3-5-8 in his final 15 games and we’ll see where he lands during the playoffs and in the fall. I still haven’t marked him as an offensive player, but am curious to see him over another full season.
  10. L Benoit Pouliot (67, 8-6-14). A dreadful season overall that featured a looney tunes start, he finally got the train moving after a long layoff. I remain suspicious about the extent of his injuries/maladies, but we’ll leave it for now. I have been accused of defending this player past reasonable, guilty as charged. See, here’s the thing: If you believe something, and the things you regard as facts confirm them, why would you back down? As fans, the least we can do is have the courage of our convictions. Good player, poor season.
  11. F Anton Slepyshev (41, 4-6-10). I’m not certain he’ll make it, seems the Oilers have a bunch of wingers looking for work and they are obscured by each other. For me, Slepy is the guy who looks to be emerging, but his handling suggests the coach prefers another. These things happen, but there’s a player here. Pretty sure.
  12. R Jesse Puljujarvi (28, 1-7-8). Our mannish boy learned the blues during a cold California winter and we’ll see what the fall brings to us. As is the case with Caggiula, I can’t mark JP as an offensive player yet. He was 0.59/60 scoring 5×5 without McDavid (200 minutes) and that’s not a big sample size and he’s 18 and and and. Edmonton needs him to be a legit scorer and there’s a pile of bonus money here too. I don’t think they can send him to the AHL again this fall without admitting the bloom is off the rose. People keep telling me his AHL numbers are fine, and that may be. I am less bullish on this player than on draft day, while remaining hopeful he’ll be a long term answer.
  13. L Matt Hendricks (42, 4-3-7). Every once in awhile this season I would get an email complaining that Hendricks was playing too much. He played half the games, folks, while McLellan busied himself auditioning replacements. Hendricks delivered what he could, and remains a game rooster on guile, blood, sweat and tears.
  14. C David Desharnais (18, 2-2-4). I expected more, but with veterans sometimes the big moments can save their seasons. If he can ignite some 5×5 offense on his line, the investment will be worth it. Edmonton needs his line to go.
  15. R Iiro Pakarinen  (14, 2-2-4). Visually impressive, he hits like he’s a 1975 Philadelphia Flyer and he has scored more than your average callup. His 2.04/60 scoring at 5×5 is also very good, of course in a small sample size. Thing is, he doesn’t have good possession numbers, which could be a reflection of playing on the Hendricks-Letestu line, but we have a bit of evidence on him and it isn’t strong. We’ll see, I think the coach likes him over some others I rank higher.

THE 2016-17 EDMONTON OILERS (D)

  1. Oscar Klefbom (82, 12-26-38). Impressive numbers across the board, his 22:22 per night might be the most impressive number. We know the Woodmoney tells us he plays against elites almost as often as anyone, and the possession numbers are good. Finished 49.8 Corsi for 5×5 with Adam Larsson, that tandem was exactly what the Oilers needed to see.
  2. Andrej Sekera (80, 8-27-35). Underrated by many, Sekera was even better in his second Oilers season. Fire on the four on four, he can capably defend while also moving the puck up smartly by pass or carry. Determined checker, I love this guy’s game.
  3. Adam Larsson (79, 4-15-19). I like this player type more than most, and was very pleased to see Larsson’s effectiveness over an entire year. Sadly, he has his detractors, either because of his defensive style or because of the player he was traded for last June. I’m uncertain he will be an Oiler long term (booing hasn’t started yet, but this was a successful year), but I hope he stays.
  4. Matt Benning (62, 3-15-18). A tale of two seasons, with the early (larger) portion being sublime play with and without the puck. After his concussion (and recovery) there has been more wobble in his game, but overall this was a terrific addition.
  5. Kris Russell (68, 1-12-13). More words have been written about him than Carter has liver pills, but the Woodmoney tells us his pairing was useful against elites. I argued at the beginning (and argue now) that the problem isn’t Russell, the problem is a long-term deal with real money for Russell. That’s your worry, although one suspects he has priced himself out of Edmonton’s market.
  6. Darnell Nurse (44, 5-6-11). A strong second season for Nurse has fans in a much better frame of mind about his future. Injury ate a large hole in his season, but the underlying numbers (51.0 Corsi for 5×5 percentage, 0.8 Corsi Rel) and his impressive speed are good arrows.
  7. Eric Gryba (40, 2-4-6). He’s a solid 7D, played half the season and did much of the heavy work on his pairing. By this time next year, this job may belong to Griffin Reinhart. Gryba, a veteran, is probably better suited to the 7D role.

THE 2016-17 EDMONTON OILERS (G)

  1. Cam Talbot (73, 2.39 .919). The big number is 42 wins, a new Oilers record. Overall SP (.919) ranked him No. 10 among goalies with 35 or more games, and his .927 even-strength SP also ranked him No. 10 league wide. His SP against the PP fell during the year, his .877 total good for No. 15 among starters. A quality season, I would suggest he is a top 10 goalie in this year’s NHL.
  2. Laurent Brossoit (8, 1.99 .928). Impressive numbers, but he remains untested. The Oilers have to play him 20 games next season to find out about him.

WHO WILL WIN THE SERIES?

If San Jose is healthy, I think they should be favored to win the series, say in 6 games. For every Thornton or Couture missing, dock one game. Something like that. I don’t think this will be an easy series for either team, and believe Edmonton can win this one. Secondary scoring and strong special teams will be a key, and I am hopeful Todd McLellan is a little more determined with his line matching. More to come.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A full boat this morning, TSN1260 at 10. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. We have our matchups and they are fabulous!
  • Dean Millard, TSN1260. Oilers playoffs and Sergio!
  • Jason Gregor TSN1260. McDavid Hart? Who wins the Oilers-Sharks series?
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue/The SuperFan. SJS-EDM head to head, and is that possession number improving?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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244 Responses to "SHARKNADO"

« Older Comments
  1. treevojo says:

    bendelson:
    A ‘hypothetical’ for the group:

    Let’s say you bet a flat of beer+ in last year’s Stanley Cup final, and won (easily, but that’s not important here) and the debt remains partially outstanding as we enter the playoffs almost a year later…

    Would you:
    1) Forget the bet ever happened.
    2) Demand payment.
    3) Demand payment +
    4) Collect frjohnk’s slightly used torches and pitchforks and set up shop on Woodguy’s front lawn?

    Note:In fairness, I did receive a delicious armful of salmon fillets from the freezer o’ plenty…

    Note:You told me to keep reminding you Darcy…

    Final note:Woot!Woot!

    I don’t see it as an option.

    But shame and ridicule.

    Public shame and ridicule is most effective.

    Well done.

  2. Georges says:

    npanciroli:
    Counter argument to Sunil. The +79 in goal differential was solely because of Larsson’s moustache.

    Sunil used scoring chances against and xGA in his argument. I think those things are as relevant as moustaches per 60 for understanding GA. So you’re on the right track.

  3. Zelepukin says:

    Hunter, 10-10

  4. Kirby says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Indeed! Now if only we had similar stats for goals given up or the result of Hall + Larsson ;).

  5. Georges says:

    frjohnk: Im a believer in shot quality, so I like looking at shots from the different locations to measure team defense.Some use expected goals as a measure as well in which shot location and type are weighted and given a value.

    I had a go around with that shot data earlier this year. Came away disappointed. I had a theory that if the success rate from the different danger areas was so different, then you should be able to get a good predictor for goals against and save percentage based on the mix and volume of shots allowed. And then you could use the mix and volume of shots allowed to grade defensive play. But, in aggregate, save percentage turned out to be difficult to pin down or predict. Knowing the volume or mix of shots didn’t help as much as I’d hoped. Goalies are wildcards. That’s why I say the data we have is unsatisfactory to decide who gets credit for GA. Context matters as the by eye folks remind us. I still use the data, but not as gospel, and definitely not to make definitive statements like Sunil with Talbot is the sole reason for lower GA.

  6. Frank the dog says:

    I was just looking at this year’s schedule against SJS, CHI and ANA.
    We went: 3-1-1 against SJS; 3-2 against ANA and 2-1 against CHI.
    How about CGY: 4-0; STL 3-0;
    But then there is NSH 0-1-2; MIN 0-1-2

    So if CHI beats NSH and STL beat MIN then our path to the finals is paved with teams we beat during the course of the season.

    Next test is whether TMac continues to choke in the playoffs like he did at SJS.

  7. spoiler says:

    One of the things about HDSCs is that a shot from the top of the circle from Ovechkin is not the same as a shot from the same spot from Eberle.

    Lucic banging rebounds in the crease is not the same as Deharnais.

    Todd Marchand on a breakaway is not Tarasenko.

  8. Younger Oil says:

    An actual headline on TSN:

    “Does the Capitals’ playoff experience give them an edge?”

    Some reporters are actually saying that this is the defining factor of this match up.

    Not having 15 more wins during the regular season and winning the Presidents Trophy.

    Not beating them in the regular season series.

    Playoff Experience.

    A+ reporting.

  9. khildahl says:

    Frank the dog:

    Next test is whether TMac continues to choke in the playoffs like he did at SJS.

    Is it the coach or the players?

    I seem to recall San Jose choking just fine pre-Todd.

  10. Kirby says:

    I apologize as I know that the definitions of Corsi have been discussed before, but can someone help ensure I am thinking of Corsi correctly? My understanding of Corsi is that it measures all shots directed on goal for and against, regardless of whether or not a shot is blocked, deflected out of play, or misses the net. As such, a shot on goal for which is blocked counts the same way as a shot on goal which is stopped by the goalie. CorsiRel is that this is a measure of a players shots for/against compared to the rest of his teammates (i.e. more shots are directed against when on the ice compared to when not on the ice). Is this a fair assessment?

    Also, what are these stats specifically trying to support with regards to on ice play, both individually and for a team? Thanks in advance.

  11. Chachi says:

    Frank the dog:

    Next test is whether TMac continues to choke in the playoffs like he did at SJS.

    There is a common thread of choke choke choking from Boston to San Jose and that is one Joe “That beard can’t hide your shame” Thornton. They almost overcame his deleterious effect on playoff performance last year, but his pull down to playoff ignominy is just too great.

    It took McLellan a year to wash off Thornton’s playoff stink, but I think he’s got it all off now.

    Coaches Joe Thornton has gotten fired with his awful playoff and/or regular season performance:

    Pat Burns
    Mike Keenan
    Robbie Ftorek
    Mike O’Connell
    Mike Sullivan
    Ron Wilson
    Todd McLellan

  12. Professor Q says:

    Sam Gagner is now being referred to by the NHL as the “Secret Weapon” for Playoff Success.

  13. admiralmark says:

    WG: Thanks for the info. If I win I will Donate a sizeable chunk to Lowetide.ca and flatter you with gratitude.

  14. Receptor Antagonist says:

    Apologies if this has been posted already, but this is pretty neat.

    https://twitter.com/NYCTheMiC/status/851485648603271169

  15. Jethro Tull says:

    Jumbo Joe: 121pts in 156 playoff games.

    Not exactly chopped liver.

  16. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Jumbo Joe: 121pts in 156 playoff games.

    Not exactly chopped liver.

    Great player, should have won a cup by now. The post retirement autopsy on his career will reveal that he choked on his beard clippings.

  17. Jethro Tull says:

    Chachi: Great player, should have won a cup by now. The post retirement autopsy on his career will reveal that he choked on his beard clippings.

    In my research ( looking at SJ scoring), Marleau, Pavelski and Thornton rattle along at about 0.8ppg in the playoffs. After them, secondary is a cliff. I think they just ran into hotter teams.

  18. anonymous says:

    Chachi: There is a common thread of choke choke choking from Boston to San Jose and that is one Joe “That beard can’t hide your shame” Thornton. They almost overcame his deleterious effect on playoff performance last year, but his pull down to playoff ignominy is just too great.

    It took McLellan a year to wash off Thornton’s playoff stink, but I think he’s got it all off now.

    Coaches Joe Thornton has gotten fired with his awful playoff and/or regular season performance:

    Pat Burns
    Mike Keenan
    Robbie Ftorek
    Mike O’Connell
    Mike Sullivan
    Ron Wilson
    Todd McLellan

    Not exactly an A list. I’ll give you Burns, Keenan was well past his best before date. Not exactly a long list considering the length of his career. Joe hasn’t been the problem.

  19. Mr. D. says:

    Remember on boards you don’t have to know a thing. You can rely on what others say. Some people don’t have anything to do but stir the pot.

    Side:
    “Sadly, he has his detractors, either because of his defensive style or because of the player he was traded for last June. I’m uncertain he will be an Oiler long term (booing hasn’t started yet, but this was a successful year), but I hope he stays.”

    Are there really that many detractors out there? I could see at the beginning of the season but, I don’t know anyone who dislikes Larsson now except for maybe a few posters on this board.Even then, it’s not because they dislike Larsson but they seem to dislike the fact that Hall was an overpay for Larsson.

    Am I missing something?

  20. frjohnk says:

    Georges: I had a go around with that shot data earlier this year. Came away disappointed. I had a theory that if the success rate from the different danger areas was so different, then you should be able to get a good predictor for goals against and save percentage based on the mix and volume of shots allowed. And then you could use the mix and volume of shots allowed to grade defensive play. But, in aggregate, save percentage turned out to be difficult to pin down or predict. Knowing the volume or mix of shots didn’t help as much as I’d hoped. Goalies are wildcards. That’s why I say the data we have is unsatisfactory to decide who gets credit for GA. Context matters as the by eye folks remind us. I still use the data, but not as gospel, and definitely not to make definitive statements like Sunil with Talbot is the sole reason for lower GA.

    So are you saying that goals against is the best ( but still limited) measure of team defense?

    Personally, I like using numbers that can tell me how the team ( without goalie numbers) is playing not unlike what Sunil used.

    I can see where expected goals does not predict actual goals very well at the team level as I would say there are different abilities throughout the league in goalies that are independant from their team and that would throw any correlation off.

    I agree that the data is still limited and I am open to new data for better interpretation.

    Some more numbers about goalies

    Using TOI, so it will go over 82 games as Im including OT and rounding
    Last year Tablot 52 games 2.54 GAA
    This year 71. games 2.4

    Last year W/O Talbot 30 games 3.06
    This year W/O Talbot 11 games 2.54

  21. treevojo says:

    Chachi: There is a common thread of choke choke choking from Boston to San Jose and that is one Joe “That beard can’t hide your shame” Thornton. They almost overcame his deleterious effect on playoff performance last year, but his pull down to playoff ignominy is just too great.

    It took McLellan a year to wash off Thornton’s playoff stink, but I think he’s got it all off now.

    Coaches Joe Thornton has gotten fired with his awful playoff and/or regular season performance:

    Pat Burns
    Mike Keenan
    Robbie Ftorek
    Mike O’Connell
    Mike Sullivan
    Ron Wilson
    Todd McLellan

    Thoroughly mediocre list

  22. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: In my research ( looking at SJ scoring), Marleau, Pavelski and Thornton rattle along at about 0.8ppg in the playoffs. After them, secondary is a cliff. I think they just ran into hotter teams.

    Its much more fun to place the blame on Joe Thornton’s tainted heart chakra.

  23. Pouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    Sam Gagner is now being referred to by the NHL as the “Secret Weapon” for Playoff Success.

    More evidence that Taylor Hall was the problem.

  24. Chachi says:

    anonymous: Not exactly an A list. I’ll give you Burns, Keenan was well past his best before date. Not exactly a long list considering the length of his career.Joe hasn’t been the problem.

    I heard Thornton uses too much cologne.

  25. Chachi says:

    treevojo: Thoroughly mediocre list

    #EvenMIkeSullivanWonACupWithCrosbyMalkinLetangKesselPleaseGordsMakeThisStop

  26. admiralmark says:

    Anyone know who we can expect for color and play by play? I don’t think i can handle a single game with Garrett.

  27. spoiler says:

    Kirby,

    You’ve pretty much got it correct.

    The idea is that since we have no direct measure of where the puck is and for how long, we use Corsi as a proxy for that stopwatch.

    So it is a proxy for possession. It sometimes gets used as proxy for offense, but that was not the stat’s intent.

    CF percentage supposedly tells us with a large enough sample, that the puck spends x percent of the time in the OZone compared to the DZone.

    And you are right, CA and CFRel tell us the those stats compared to teammates.

  28. spoiler says:

    admiralmark:
    Anyone know who we can expect for color and play by play? I don’t think i can handle a single game with Garrett.

    Randorf, DeBrusk and Cassie Campbell-Pascall

  29. classict says:

    spoiler:
    Kirby,

    You’ve pretty much got it correct.

    The idea is that since we have no direct measure of where the puck is and for how long, we use Corsi as a proxy for that stopwatch.

    So it is a proxy for possession.It sometimes gets used as proxy for offense, but that was not the stat’s intent.

    CF percentage supposedly tells us with a large enough sample, that the puck spends x percent of the time in the OZone compared to the DZone.

    And you are right, CA and CFRel tell us the those stats compared to teammates.

    AFAIK Corsi is generally preferred over actual possession time if in terms of describing what’s happening in the game and for predicting future success. The old posts are probably long gone, but I know there were people looking at it by manually tracking it.

    So it’s not really just a proxy for possession time. Possession time doesn’t say enough about what each team is actually doing with the puck when they have it. A proxy for effective use of possession maybe?

  30. Kirby says:

    spoiler,

    Thanks for the confirmation!

    Is there any stats that track or add on to Corsi to filter out ‘garbage’ shots/plays? For example, a turnover at a blue line which leads immediately to a missed shot that gives the opposing team the puck back (say a stick lift followed by a rapid spin-o-rama shot)?

  31. Rocknrolla says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March is here!! Anyone can play!!

    Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-13) during the upcoming playoffs.

    It’s easy!

    For example:

    hunter1909 predicts Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.
    10-9

    Entries accepted right up until the first puck drop of the Oilers 2017 playoffs.

    Special congrats to the winners of the 2016-17 regular season!

    Common Fan 14
    John Chambers
    Evil As
    Tee Vee
    Henry

    Hunter put me down for 9-8, lose 4-1 to Chicago in the west finals.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kirby:
    spoiler,

    Thanks for the confirmation!

    Is there any stats that track or add on to Corsi to filter out ‘garbage’ shots/plays? For example, a turnover at a blue line which leads immediately to a missed shot that gives the opposing team the puck back (say a stick lift followed by a rapid spin-o-rama shot)?

    Corsi is just measuring “who has the puck”

    It doesn’t care if they have a scoring chance with it.

    The biggest thing about possessing the puck is the other team cannot score, not whether or not the corsi is “dangerous”

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo: I don’t see it as an option.

    But shame and ridicule.

    Public shame and ridicule is most effective.

    Well done.

    What about when you offer to pay and he tells you “no we can wait for a game to drink it”, then you save him thousands of dollars on a big purchase, and he goes on a message board three days later to say you welshed?

  34. russ99 says:

    For me the real difference on D is shot quality reduction.

    Year after year, our goalies were hung out to dry and blitzed by the competition.

    You could say Talbot’s success was aided by less difficult shots against per game, less screened goals and blown coverages, and the Oilers defense was much more successful keeping the puck to the outside rather than letting the opposition waltz in as in earlier years. We also seem to clear rebounds a lot better.

    The problem with defensive metrics until we get tracking chips is even the best defenses allow 25-35 shots a game and even the best goalies allow goals. Defensive effects on shot quality is not a zero sum calculation like scoring goals, or even tracking shots, which are more individual numbers that are a counting statistic.

    Also defense is a 5 man unit, and either players add or detract to defensive effectiveness and reduce or enhance opponent shot quality.

    Talbot has had a heck of a year, but just because you can’t easily quantify defensive effects, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, Mr. Sutter.

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    spoiler: So Sutter was wrong?

    Also the above doesn’t explain Patrice Bergeron and Drew Doughty having sub-50 CA rates while having CF rates hovering around 60.

    And, there should be an upper limit on how much Corsi can be generated per 60, and obtaining a dominant share of it should prove Sutter right.

    Finally… are we sure Corsi is doing what it’s supposed to… telling us where the puck is with clarity?

    I’m not following you.

    Bergeron is probably the best defensive player in the league.

    Doughty doesn’t have the lowest CA/60 on his team, not even close.

    Also,

    LAK runs a “top 4” much like EDM. Doughty only sees ~35% Elite Forwards with his ice time. I’d expect him to excel in the rest of his duties.

    Doughty vs Elite
    CF/60 58.1
    CA/60 51.5

    Doughty vs MIddle
    CF/60 56.10
    CA/60 45.2

    Doughty vs Gritensity
    CF/60 65.3
    CA/60 46.3

    That’s this year’s numbers.

    If Doughty played more vs Elites his CA would creep up.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Agreed. But then I look and see Cam Talbot last year had a .917 save percentage and this year had a .919 save percentage. Not that big a difference is it? The difference I guess is in playing Talbot in 17ish more games instead of whomever the back up was. That doesn’t nearly account for the drop in goals against does it?

    GP is a big part

  37. spoiler says:

    Kirby,

    Not other than SCs and HDSCs, as far as I know, but I haven’t read much recently other than Woodguy and GMoney and other posters here. So not so much filter garbage as look for the opposite. We don’t have the data to pick out screens and deflections yet, so there are some high percentage plays going unnoticed.

  38. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: What about when you offer to pay and he tells you “no we can wait for a game to drink it”, then you save him thousands of dollars on a big purchase, and he goes on a message board three days later to say you welshed?

    I would then drink it without him, but send pictures of yourself enjoying it

  39. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: GP is a big part

    How many of the 35 goals against less would you say the extra 17 Talbot games would cover? I figure it is about 10 goals at most.

  40. admiralmark says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/kings-fire-sutter-lombardi-promote-robitaille-blake-1.721029

    Yes because hiring ex star players has shown to work out so well around the league. :-/

  41. spoiler says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Doughty’s CA is second among Dmen on his team, and first among regulars this year.

    Your premise was that high Corsi For matched with high Corsi Against is a reflection of skill vs. skill. I gave examples of two players with high skills playing against the highly-skilled that don’t follow that premise.

    Sutter’s famous claim, to my mind, implies that good D means having the puck, preferably in the other end, which for us is indicated by good CF rates. We should see his theory reflected in high CF driving down CA, if he’s right. We can probably see some of this effect if we look at WOWY and VS. data, but I’ve been sitting next to a buddy trying to solve his Colorado Avalanche problems, so haven’t confirmed it yet.

    I further hypothesize that there must be some max limit to Corsi events given 60 minutes to occur in, and thus Corsi at one end should have the ability to limit Corsi at the other. The puck can only be at one end. This is a bit tenuous maybe when thinking of the data as a whole (shifts are independent of each other), but I think is still true.

    I think you’re right that skilled players have a higher upper limit for that max Corsi, but there should still be a limit.

  42. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: What about when you offer to pay and he tells you “no we can wait for a game to drink it”, then you save him thousands of dollars on a big purchase, and he goes on a message board three days later to say you welshed?

    I would say bendelson is not only smart but quite funny as well.

  43. Kirby says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Corsi is just measuring “who has the puck”

    It doesn’t care if they have a scoring chance with it.

    The biggest thing about possessing the puck is the other team cannot score, not whether or not the corsi is “dangerous”

    I agree that possession of the puck means the other team does not possess the puck, thus the less opportunity the opponent has to score. But the example I presented increases CF, suggesting an increase in possession. However, the possession was at best 1-2 seconds, with the opposing team regaining possession almost immediately.

    I admit my presentation was lacking in my example, but the example to me doesn’t indicate positive possession. Yes, given the right circumstances (protection of a lead late in the game) this result is a positive; however, most other times throughout a game this would be viewed as poor play or poor decision making would it not? It seems weird that I can influence the stat to reflect better on myself when the true result of the play was loss of possession, which depending on the resulting play might not end up in CA. I guess what I’m asking is if there is a way to filter out ‘inflation’ plays – removing events that increase CF that would commonly be agreed on as a negative effect play.

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