SHINE A LIGHT

Central Scouting has released their final list and it gives me a chance to pass along my latest ranking. As you know, my ranking is mostly math based, but foot speed is punished heavily. As you will see, I’ve moved a few players up and down this time, and will tell you some of that comes from outside input (skating is the big one but there are other tweaks below).

Central Scouting’s final list is here. Among the things of note:

  • Owen Tippett falls from No. 4 to No. 7 on the NA list, as I moved him up to No. 3.
  • Jason Robertson moves from 34 to 14, he moved on my list from No. 77 to No. 75. The issue is foot speed, and I’ll continue to cast about but from what I am hearing that might hurt his draft number. Little doubt he is rising, Red Line Report has him Top 10 overall last I checked.
  • For the first time ever, my ranking seems to like the USHL more than Central Scouting.
  • Central did a dandy job with older eligibles, including Tyler Steenbergen moving up to No. 70 NA.
  • I’ll have a good long look at the Central list before the next ranking, none of their final numbers have been integrated into my list.

TOP 93, 2017 DRAFT

  1. (1) RC Nolan Patrick, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). A complete talent but not an elite one.
  2. (2) L Nico Hischier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). A more dynamic offensive player than Patrick.
  3. (4) R Owen Tippett, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). He covers 3 important categories (size, speed, sniper).
  4. (3) L Elias Pettersson, Timra (Swe-1). Impressive talent, very skilled.
  5. (6) RD Timothy Liljegren, Rogle (Swe Jr). He is a mobile 2-way D with impressive skill.
  6. (7) LC Casey Mittelstadt, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Speed and skill, NHLE (30).
  7. (10) RD Cale Makar, Brooks Bandits (AJHL). Fast, exceptional puck-moving acumen.
  8. (8) RC Cody Glass, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Complete skill set(NHLE: 30).
  9. (11) RC Gabriel Vilardi, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Creative C with size, NHLE (33).
  10. (5) LD Juuso Valimaki, Tri-City Americans (WHL). A big two-way D, smart, creative.
  11. (12) R Kailer Yamamoto, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart, elusive, offensive. Lacks top gear.
  12. (9) RC Nick Suzuki, Owen Sound Attack (OHL).  Skill and creativity, a little one dimensional.
  13. (13) L Eeli Tolvanen, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Plus skater, NHL shot and release.
  14. (14) RC Robert Thomas, London Knights (OHL). Speedy forward, creative.
  15. (18) LC Lias Andersson, Linkoping (SHL). Throwback 2-way C, aggressive, quick. 5.11, 200.
  16. (16) C Michael Rasmussem, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Big C, physical, good skater.
  17. (24) RC Martin Necas, Brno (Czech). High speed skill W, just 5.11.
  18. (17) LD Nicholas Hague, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Rangy, aggressive, emerging offense.
  19. (19) R Kole Lind, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Speedy W with skill. Good Oil option.
  20. (21) R Klim Kostin, Balashikha (MHL). Giant winger, good offense. Injured.
  21. (30) LC Alexei Lipanov, Dyanmo Balashikha (VHL). Impressive 2-way resume.
  22. (20) RD Conor Timmins, SSE Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, reads plays well, excellent passer.
  23. (22) L Kristian Vesalainen, Frolunda (SHL). Big W, skilled, strong, can play L or R.
  24. (31) LD Miro Heiskanen, HIFK (Sm-Liiga). Puck-mover, excellent vision and speed.
  25. (25) L Matthew Strome, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Strong 2-way W, offensive potential.
  26. (15) C Mason Shaw, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Small skill C, terrific skills.
  27. (39) LC Ryan Poehling, St. Cloude State (NCAA). Big skill C with an offensive reputation.
  28. (26) RC Morgan Geekie, Tri-City Americans (WHL). C w/2-way rep and emerging offense.
  29. (28) RD Cal Foote, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Huge D, awkward skater, good passer, tough.
  30. (29) RC Ivan Lodnia, Erie Otters (OHL). Small skill C, great skater.
  31. (32) R Nicholas Henry, Regina Pats (WHL). Emerging scorer. Not fast.
  32. (23) L Nikita Popugaev, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Big, good skater, plus shot, passer.
  33. (50) LC Joshua Norris, USNDTP (USHL). Two-way C showing good offense.
  34. (33) LC Jaret-Anderson Dolan, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Small, very quick skater and plus skill.
  35. (34) LD Uro Vaakanainen, JYP (Sm-Liiga). Fast two-way blue with a good shot.
  36. (35) G Jake Oettinger, Boston University (NCAA). 35gp, 2.11 .927. Fabulous numbers.
  37. (27) R Aleksi Heponiemi, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Cerebral W with skill, anticipation.
  38. (65) RC Scott Reedy, USNDTP (USHL). Center with speed, range of skills, dynamic.
  39. (36) G Mike DiPietro, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). 51gp, 2.35 .917.
  40. (42) LD Noel Hoefenmeyer, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Fairly complete defender, good D and some offense.
  41. (37) L Isaac Ratcliffe, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big winger, great skater, some skill.
  42. (38) LC Evan Barratt, USNDTP (USHL). Small finesse center with substantial skills.
  43. (41) LC Jake Leschyshyn, Regina Pats (WHL). Quality two-way C.
  44. (43) LC Shane Bowers, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Impressive two-way C, plus skill.
  45. (64) C Jesper Boqvist, Brynas (SHL). Average size, good speed and skill.
  46. (44) LC Morgan Frost, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, skilled, and emerging.
  47. (45) RD Henri Jokiharju, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Smooth skating Finn OD, needs defensive work.
  48. (46) R Stelio Mattheos, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Excellent skater, heavy shot.
  49. (40) RC Joni Ikonen, Frolunda (Swe SuperElite). Small skill center with good speed.
  50. (47) LD Jack Rathbone, Dexter School (USHS). A bullet on skates, very skilled.
  51. (48) L Alex Formenton, London Knights (OHL). An absolute burner, has some skill.
  52. (49) R Adam Ruzicka, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Big (6.04, 202) forward who plays intelligent game.
  53. (51) RD Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL). Two-way D, some nice boxcars.
  54. (52) L Ostap Safin, Sparta Praha (Cze). Big forward, good skater, has plus skills. Nice range.
  55. (88) L Grant Mismash, USNDTP (USHL). Physical winger with some skill.
  56. (53) RC Alexander Chmelevski, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Impressive skills, outststanding TP game.
  57. (62) RD Ian Mitchell, Spruce Grove Saints (AJHL). Undersized, mobile two-way defender.
  58. (NR) F Andrey Altybarmakyan, St.Petersburg (MHL).  The math is strong on this one.
  59. (54) LC Marcus Davidsson, Djurgardens (SHL). Two-way center has some offense, nice range of skills.
  60. (66) LD Patrick Brannstrom, HV71 (SHL). Undersized skill defender, outstanding skater.
  61. (55) RD Kale Fleury, Kootenay Ice (WHL). Fascinating prospect. Haydn’s brother. Range of skills.
  62. (56) L Zach Gallant, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Fast skater, intelligent player, boxcars moving.
  63. (57) RC Jack Studnicka, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Range of skills, quality offense. No buzz.
  64. (58) R Lukas Elvenes, Rogle (SuperElite). Highly skilled winger, terrific hands.
  65. (59) L Mackenzie Entwistle, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Big winger, who can skate, check, some skill.
  66. (60) RD Artyom Minulin, Swfit Current Broncos (WHL). Big defender with emerging skills.
  67. (61) L Maxime Comtois, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Skilled, good size, skating average.
  68. (63) RD Eemeli Rasanen, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Giant defender with skill, mobility.
  69. (67) L Jonah Gadjovich, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Emerging PF, 40-goal man. Average speed.
  70. (68) LD Max Gildon, USNDTP (USHL). Size, speed, skill. Inconsistent or he would be higher.
  71. (69) L Jacob Tortora, USNDTP (USHL). He is a burner and he is skilled and he is small.
  72. (70) G Keith Petruzzeli, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). An actual giant goalie. Luedeke is on him.
  73. (71) C Kevin Hancock, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Draft re-entry having a fine offensive season.
  74. (72) LD Josh Brook, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Mobile, dependable, emerging. Could be a find.
  75. (77) L Jason Robertson, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Big winger with a good shot. Speed hurts him. 31.
  76. (73) G Daniil Tarasov, Ufa (MHL). Tall thin goalie impressed at U18s.
  77. (74) LD Dylan Samberg, Hermantown High (USHS). Big (6.03, 190) mobile blue. Offense a mystery.
  78. (75) R Emil Oksanen, Espoo (Mestis). Skilled winger, great shot, he can scoot.
  79. (76) RC Nathan Schnarr, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big center with speed, a little shy offensively.
  80. (78) LC Jordy Bellerive, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Undersized, nifty and aggressive F with skill.
  81. (79) LD Robin Salo, Sport Vaasa (SML). Two-way defender, mature.
  82. (80) LD Cameron Crotty, Brockville Braves (CCHL). Intelligent two-way defender, great passer.
  83. (81) RD Dylan Coghlan, Tri-City Americans (WHL). 2-way defender, good skater, spiking offensively.
  84. (82) LC Antoine Morand, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Very small, very skilled.
  85. (83) LD Clayton Phillips, Fargo Force (USHL). Undersized OD, speed, great shot. Draft and follow.
  86. (84) L Pavel Koltygin, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL). Two-way winger.
  87. (85) RC Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). 1998 born, too much skill to pass on.
  88. (86) G Olle Eriksson Ek, Farjestads (SuperElite). Big goalie with a good track record.
  89. (87) L Ryan Hughes, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). 5.08, July 1999, 55 pts/65 games.
  90. (NR) LD Mario Ferraro, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL). Undersized OD with real offensive potential.
  91. (89) LC Austen Keating, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Offensive center, more consistent this season.
  92. (90) LC Ben Jones, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). I think he might be a sleeper. Playmaker.
  93. (91) RC Greg Meireles, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Smaller forward, speedy, responsible.

OILERS AT THE DRAFT

  • First Round: No. 24 overall
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)
  • Third Round: No. 86 overall
  • Fourth Round: No. 117 overall
  • Fifth Round: No. 126 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)
  • Fifth Round: No. 148 overall
  • Sixth Round: No. 179 overall
  • Seventh Round: No. 210 overall

I think we may see the Oilers grab a second round pick before draft day, some attractive forwards are going to be in that 35-50 area.

MOCK DRAFT (SIXTH EDITION)

  • First Round: No. 24 overall—RC Martin Necas, Brno (Czech). He is a high end skill center who has great vision. Undersized, that’s why he made be available at No. 24
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)—L Jonah Gadjovich, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Emerging PF, 40-goal man. Average speed. Aggressive and has a nose for the net.
  • Third Round: No. 86 overallRD Dylan Coghlan, Tri-City Americans (WHL). he is a 2-way defender, good skater, spiking offensively.
  • Fourth Round: No. 117 overall—RD Robbie Stucker, St. Thomas (USHS). Tall, thin defender with offensive skill.
  • Fifth Round: No. 126 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)—L Ivan Kosorenkov, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Undersized, 34 goals by getting inside.
  • Fifth Round: No. 148 overall—G Veini Vehvilainen, Jyp (Sm-Liiga). A .912SP, he has a solid resume and is draft re-entry.
  • Sixth Round: No. 179 overall—LC Brayden Burke, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Small player, high skill, he is 20.
  • Seventh Round: No. 210 overall—R Cole Coskey, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Skill winger on a bad team. Probably better than my ranking.

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81 Responses to "SHINE A LIGHT"

  1. Younger Oil says:

    Depending how the playoffs go, I could actually see the Oilers getting Oettinger, the consensus top goalie, with their first round pick.

    I’d prefer that to wasting a late round pick on one like they have most years since 2004.

  2. The Original JDI says:

    Colorado: Goal in for Nolan. 278 goals against this season. Yikes.

    He would be a fantastic add for them, if they don’t screw things up and start dumping good players in the off season.

  3. GMB3 says:

    What do you mean by “throwback 2 way C”?

  4. Lowetide says:

    GMB3:
    What do you mean by “throwback 2 way C”?

    A player who does all things, not a specialist. EV, PP, PK, checking too.

  5. stush18 says:

    The Original JDI:
    Colorado: Goal in for Nolan. 278 goals against this season. Yikes.

    He would be a fantastic add for them, if they don’t screw things up and start dumping good players in the off season.

    Gotta think Colorado is looking at adding liligren depending on where they draft.

    Forwards are not necessarily high end in Themis draft, and they have nothing on defense. That’s what I would do anyways if I was sakic.

  6. Opie says:

    If im oil I’m taking one of Vesalainen, popugaev, comtois, heiskanen, or E. rasanen with the first round pick. Really don’t think you can go wrong with any of them though a forward would be ideal IMO. #Goil

  7. stush18 says:

    Question for the masses.

    Is sakic a good gm? I didn’t think he was, but some fans on twitter insist he was handed a tire fire and is slowing improving the team.

  8. The Original JDI says:

    stush18: depending on where they draft.

    Of course, but I’m pretty sure they’ve already inquired about the asking price for Bill Scott’s lucky socks.

    BPA. Patrick would be a great rookie to break on Dooch and McKinnon’s wing, if Sakic can help the back end through free agency.

  9. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    Question for the masses.

    Is sakic a good gm? I didn’t think he was, but some fans on twitter insist he was handed a tire fire and is slowing improving the team.

    I don’t know how he could be, the resume has major holes.

  10. Todd Macallan says:

    1 – Kole Lind – RW/C – What LT said. Sounds like Benson with better (and healthier) wheels.
    3 – Dylan Coghlan – RD – Overager (a theme with this mock of a down draft yr). Wanted the Oil to pick him last year with combo of size, skating and new offense.
    3 – Stuart Skinner – G – Great size, athleticism. Impressive showing at Top Prospects game.
    4 – Max Fortier – RW – Overager with great numbers in the Q. RH scorer adds much needed skillset.
    5 – Emil Oksanen – LW/RW – What LT said. #134(!) in final CS ranking, worth the reach.
    5 – Daniil Tarasov – G – Stellar performance at U18s for Russia last season, good size, dropped to 10 in final CS rankings. Take advantage of rare deep goalie draft.
    6 – Filip Svenningsson – LW – Great skater, scorer, agitator, inconsistent, size average.
    7 – Linus Weissbach – LW – Speed, speed, speed. Tiny, almost PPG in USHL as overager. Committed to Wisconsin next yr.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The way Peter is signing young Dmen you’d think there will be a fire sale soon.

    Perhaps Peter has asked McPhee the cost of doing business and the answer is “young D prospects” so Peter loads up in order to move some and in order to have some move into spots that will be vacated via trade.

    Maybe.

  12. StixMalone says:

    stush18:
    Question for the masses.

    Is sakic a good gm? I didn’t think he was, but some fans on twitter insist he was handed a tire fire and is slowing improving the team.

    I don’t think with the talent they have/had they’re a tire fire. Things fell apart after Roy had that good season followed by a disaster which led to a butting of heads and ultimately Roy leaving/firing. I don’t consider Sakic a good GM. Again team loyalty and hiring of former players to run the organization tend to backfire. One only has to look at the Oilers as an example. It might happen in Los Angeles now. The only exception in my mind is Stevie Y. He is stubborn and that seems to be a good trait to have to survive…

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Playing around with some WoodMoney numbers. Have a way to calculate team CF% and DFF% now.

    Takes forever, but G will have “teams” on the site when its up. (soon?)

    So, here’s the list of Team CF% vs Elite Forwards:

    TEAM CF% vs ELITE
    LAK 51.6
    BOS 51.0
    PIT 50.2
    TOR 50.2

    NSH 49.6
    SJS 49.4
    MTL 49.2
    WSH 49.2
    CAR 48.9
    CHI 48.9
    FLA 48.4
    TBY 48.4
    ANA 48.2
    WPG 48.1
    CBJ 48.0
    CGY 47.6`
    DAL 47.5
    PHI 47.3
    STL 47.2
    EDM 47.1
    MIN 46.2
    VAN 45.5
    NYI 45.4
    NYR 45.1
    NJD 45.0

    COL 44.4
    BUF 44.1
    DET 44.1
    OTT 43.4
    ARI 43.3

    Here’s the list of team’s DFF% vs Elite Forwards:

    TEAM DFF% vs ELITE
    PIT 54.9
    ANA 51.9
    LAK 51.8
    MTL 51.0
    CAR 51.0
    MIN 51.0
    BOS 50.7
    NSH 50.3
    SJS 50.3
    TOR 50.1

    WPG 49.7
    TBY 49.5
    DAL 48.2
    STL 47.9
    EDM 47.9
    CGY 47.8
    CBJ 47.6
    WSH 47.5
    PHI 46.8
    NYR 46.6
    NJD 46.6
    CHI 46.4
    FLA 46.1
    BUF 46.1

    NYI 44.8
    OTT 44.6
    COL 44.3
    DET 42.5
    VAN 42.4

    ARI 37.4

    CHI/NSH eh?

    Now this is all year numbers.

    CHI were awful to start.

    EDM has been better late than early as well.

    If CAR gets another shooter and some goalering watch out.

    LAK needed shooters but who knows what will happen with rookies at the helm.

    TOR was good in both aspects. Maybe Babcock should coach more than one team?

  14. ChiliChunk says:

    Sixth Round: No. 179 overall—LC Brayden Burke, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Small player, high skill, he is 20.

    Hi LT – how often do players get drafted in their 3rd year of eligibility? I don’t follow the draft close enough to know how common or rare that is. Thanks.

  15. digger50 says:

    Question, was Phil Larsen on anyone’s radar when Vancouver traded for him? I had heard nothing and surprised when Vancouver turned him into a player.

  16. digger50 says:

    With Vegas auction going on, and a weaker draft year, the smart play for 2017 might be to cash the first round pick for a 22 year old player who can help now.

  17. Chachi says:

    digger50:
    Question, was Phil Larsen on anyone’s radar when Vancouver traded for him? I had heard nothing and surprised when Vancouver turned him into a player.

    I wouldn’t say Vancouver turned him into a player. He was on Taylor Hall’s radar briefly and then he wasn’t.

    https://youtu.be/4OE9EKtJbts

  18. The Original JDI says:

    digger50: I had heard nothing and surprised when Vancouver turned him into a player.

    He’s a player? On the 29th place team in the league, maybe.

  19. Lloyd B. says:

    Lowetide: A player who does all things, not a specialist. EV, PP, PK, checking too.

    So Nuge then.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Lloyd B.: So Nuge then.

    Yes.

  21. Lowetide says:

    ChiliChunk: Hi LT – how often do players get drafted in their 3rd year of eligibility? I don’t follow the draft close enough to know how common or rare that is. Thanks.

    Interesting question, and I don’t know the answer.

  22. digger50 says:

    The Original JDI: He’s a player? On the 29th place team in the league, maybe.

    I didn’t say great player. Just surprised he went from absolutely nothing with Oilers to NHL. And hey, last year the same could be said about Oil defenceman …. but no more.

  23. digger50 says:

    Kevin Hays from the Rangers looks to be exposed in expansion. Big centerman that can put up some points. Could probably work a deal through Vegas.

  24. nelson88 says:

    Dylan Wells – Wow, what a playoff that kid is having.

  25. The Original JDI says:

    digger50: And hey, last year the same could be said about Oil defenceman …. but no more.

    I think you’re proving my point.

  26. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March LAST DAY TO ENTER

    Anyone with access to a computer can play!!

    Here’s how You play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-13) during the upcoming playoffs.

    It’s easy!

    Last day to enter!!

  27. hunter1909 says:

    Last Day to Enter!! Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March is here!! Last Day to Enter!!

    Anyone can play!!

    Here’s how: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-13) during the upcoming playoffs.

    LAST DAY TO ENTER TODAY!!

  28. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March has approximately 24 hours to accept entries!!

  29. The Original JDI says:

    hunter1909: Death March

    Death to March!!! Death to March!!!

  30. Todd Macallan says:

    nelson88,

    Yep, first star yet again, stopped 33/34 in a 3-1 W. .944 so far in these playoffs, wow.

  31. Hazwasted says:

    hunter1909,

    Who says advertising doesn’t work!

    10-9 Hunter Thanks

  32. Lloyd B. says:

    digger50:
    With Vegas auction going on, and a weaker draft year, the smart play for 2017 might be to cash the first round pick for a 22 year old player who can help now.

    I reckon the opportunity for the Oilers to procure the 3RC and 2RD will present itself once the expansion protected lists come out. There will be lots of these types of players left unprotected.

    Las Vegas should have the best 3rd and 4th lines in the league next year. They’re going to have a team full of choices. Unfortunately their 1st and 2nd line guys will also be 3rd liners.

    Same with defense. They could very well wind up with three 2nd pairing D. Or two 2nd pair and a very solid 3rd.

    I believe you are on the right train of thought. Package up the 1st, with an enigmatic Pouliot ( who would be a serviceable 2nd line winger for VGK) and agree for them to take Reinhart.

    In exchange LVK would pick the 3RHC and 2RHD the Oilers want from the other teams and Bobs your uncle.

    I believe we will see a few types of these trades for LVK. May as well be the Oilers. If LVK does enough of these they may well get a reasonably solid 2nd line.

    Win the draft lottery, take Patrick and they could actually be competitive year one. Watched him when I was working in Brandon and that kid can hockey.

    There are a couple off reasons I see this type of trade happening for LVK.

    1) They are going to have a whack of guys that are not waiver eligible and will lose them if they are exposed. It`s funny but it would hurt their depth.

    2) Partly tied to #1, they need to stock up on high(er) draft picks to build their AAA team. The Oilers first pick this year represents that player. Another year or two in their respective leagues and then onto the farm. LVK not likely to have an AAA farm team this year.

    It makes sense from an Oilers perspective because they get a solid BALANCED lineup to start the year. We get the elusive photo.

    Wow. This may be my longest post ever. Didn’t realize I had so much to say about it.

    Lots of time for this type of talk after the playoffs. Sorry guys.

    Woot. Woot. GO OILERS !

  33. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me down for 10 wins & 9 losses, thanks!

  34. Lloyd B. says:

    hunter1909,

    I`ll go 6 -6. Oddly, the Ducks scare me more than the SCF of last year.

    Thanks for doing all the work on this Hunter.

    It`s got to be a bitch finding all our guesses hidden among the posts.

  35. Chachi says:

    Todd Macallan:
    nelson88,

    Yep, first star yet again, stopped 33/34 in a 3-1 W. .944 so far in these playoffs, wow.

    Good thing when they picked him they wasted a late round pick on a goalie like they have been since 2004.

  36. AsiaOil says:

    A one off appearance on my part to complete a wager agreed to two years ago between GMoney and Asiaoil on the use of small sample early career results as a predictor of future goalie performance. Terms of the bet were $5 for each point as a donation to Allan Mitchell’s blog lowetide.ca. The following are the GMoney model predictions based on his assumptions with Asioil taking the opposite position:

    1) that within 2 years (end of 2016-2017 season), Ben Scrivens is back to being an above average to elite NHL goalie (call it .917 or above all sits, or .922 EV, adj sv%)

    Big miss for GMoney model as Scriven collapsed in 2015-16 with a sub-.900 average in the AHL and a .906 AS% in 15 games with Montreal. He actually did put up a .926 ES% in 2015-16 in limited games. No NHL contract in 2016-17 and a .918 with Dynamo Minsk of the KHL. Miss by the GMoney model with the guy no longer being an NHL goalie (let alone average to elite)

    2) that within 2 years (end of 2016-2017 season), Cam Talbot is an elite NHL goalie (.920 AS and .925 EV, adj)

    Actually very close. Talbot put up a .918 all situations % and .924 EV% over the two years. I’d actually call this a win in all but the bet parameters as Talbot has been good.

    3) that by end of next season (2015-2016), Jhonas Enroth is established as a legitimate NHL starter (similar to Scrivens’ projected numbers)

    Enroth was very decent in 2015-16 as a backup in LA putting up a .922 AS% in 16 games, but collapsed in 2016-17 with a .872 AS% in only 6 NHL games with Toronto before being demoted to the AHL and playing sub .900 hockey there. A .909 AS% and 916 ES% for the 2-year period. Another miss by the GMoney model with the guy’s NHL career hanging by a thread.

    4) that by end of next season (2015-2016), Karri Ramo is established as a backup and not a starter (.915 or lower all sits)

    Ramo was mediocre in CGY during 2015-16 putting up a .909 AS% in 16 games as a 1B. He was .915 at ES%. No NHL contract and was mediocre in the AHL this season with the Marlies (.880 AS%) before heading back to SM liige and putting up a .919 in 7 games. Technically a win for GMoney model but he is not “established as a backup” (his NHL career is over) and I agreed that this guy was a poor goalie.

    So not much more to say other than restating my original position of 2 years ago that early stage NHL career SP is a poor predictor of future goalie performance. We had this debate as a result of Talbot who I was skeptical of because of his limited record, but I changed my views after hearing reports that Allaire was a big fan. Save percentage is a big deal as it is the ultimate judge of goalie performance long-term (good goalies stop more pucks than bad goalies unless circumstances conspire otherwise) but I think that early stage assessment MUST recognize expert analysis of physique, technique and mental stability as being equally or even more important. Numbers without eyes have proven no better than a coin flip in this case.

  37. Johnny skid says:

    AsiaOil:
    A one off appearance on my part to complete a wager agreed to two years ago between GMoney and Asiaoil on the use of small sample early career results as a predictor of future goalie performance. Terms of the bet were $5 for each point as a donation to Allan Mitchell’s blog lowetide.ca. The following are the GMoney model predictions based on his assumptions with Asioil taking the opposite position:

    1) that within 2 years (end of 2016-2017 season), Ben Scrivens is back to being an above average to elite NHL goalie (call it .917 or above all sits, or .922 EV, adj sv%)

    Big miss for GMoney model as Scriven collapsed in 2015-16 with a sub-.900 average in the AHL and a .906 EV in 15 games with Montreal. He actually did put up a .926 ES% in 2015-16 in limited games. No NHL contract in 2016-17 and a .918 with Dynamo Minsk of the KHL. Miss by the GMoney model with the guy no longer being an NHL goalie (let alone average to elite)

    2) that within 2 years (end of 2016-2017 season), Cam Talbot is an elite NHL goalie (.920 AS and .925 EV, adj)

    Actually very close. Talbot put up a .918 all situations %and .924 EV% over the two years. I’d actually call this a win in all but the bet parameters as Talbot has been good.

    3)that by end of next season (2015-2016), Jhonas Enroth is established as a legitimate NHL starter (similar to Scrivens’ projected numbers)

    Enroth was very decent in 2015-16 as a backup in LA putting up a .922 AS% in 16 games, but collapsed in 2016-17 with a .872 AS% in only 6 NHL games with Toronto before being demoted to the AHL and playing sub .900 hockey there. A .909 AS% and 916 ES% for the 2-year period. Another miss by the GMoney model with the guy’s NHL career hanging by a thread.

    4) that by end of next season (2015-2016), Karri Ramo is established as a backup and not a starter (.915 or lower all sits)

    Ramo was mediocre in CGY during 2015-16 putting up a .909 AS% in 16 games as a 1B. He was .915 at ES%. No NHL contract and was mediocre in the AHL this season with the Marlies (.880 AS%) before heading back to SM liige and putting up a .919 in 7 games. Technically a win for GMoney model but he is not “established as a backup” (his NHL career is over) and I agreed that this guy was a poor goalie.

    So not much more to say other than the restating my original position of 2 years ago that early stage NHL career SP is a poor predictor of future goalie performance. We had this debate as a result of Talbot who I was skeptical of because of his limited record, but I changed my views after hearing reports that Allaire was a big fan. Save percentage is a big deal as it is the ultimate judge of goalie performance long-term (good goalies stop more pucks than bad goalies unless circumstances conspire otherwise) but I think that early stage assessment MUST recognize expert analysis of physique, technique and mental stability as being equally or even more important. Numbers without eyes have proven no better than a coin flip in this case.

    welcome back ASIAOIL. i really enjoy your comments….keep’em coming.

  38. admiralmark says:

    LT why’d you have to use that picture of McDavid looking so pissed for being picked by the Oilers?!

  39. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    hunter1909,

    I will take 10-8, please and thanks.

  40. Bar_Qu says:

    Hunter, put me down for 6-6. A valiant second round exit.

    Thanks for doing this.

  41. Bad Seed says:

    Johnny skid: welcome back ASIAOIL.i really enjoy your comments….keep’em coming.

    I second that, AsiaOil. Wish you posted more.

  42. Yak Efron says:

    Hunter

    16-9 please

    Had 97 for the season deathmarch, can’t believe it was too low. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice….. can’t get fooled again.

  43. stush18 says:

    Lloyd B.,

    Not to come off as an ass, but why wouldn’t vegas keep the 3Hc and 2RD? More valuable than a late pick in next years draft and an aging pouliot.

    I think it’s runs more along the lines of

    Nuge
    Pouliot/fayne

    For

    Hayes
    Late pick/player

    Vegas should be willing to take bad contracts, but only along with good players. Draft picks from teams as good as the oilers won’t do much to move the needle

  44. greenshifter says:

    hunter1909,

    9 and 11, thanks Hunter!

  45. greenshifter says:

    greenshifter,

    Sorry 9 and 10 is what I meant

  46. marconiuse says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me down for 6 wins and 6 losses

    Go Oilers clapclap

  47. Blackwolf says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter. May I have W15 L10 please and thank you.

  48. Edmonton_fan says:

    3 – 4

  49. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!

    – Asia: nice to see you post for sure. I agreed with your thesis at the time.

    – Hunter: put me down for 13-12:

    – I’ve been saying for many months this team is good enough to make the Cup: they do, and lose in 5…

  50. Centre of attention says:

    Caleb Jones scores for Portland.

    up 3-1 late in the second.

  51. Lloyd B. says:

    stush18,

    You`re not being an ass. Questioning the proposal moves the conversation forward.

    I do not use IMO because if I am writing it, is by default, my opinion.

    My point is that LVK will have any manner of those types of players they can`t keep due to waivers.

    I should have been more clear about Pouliot and his contract. Perhaps the Oil have to keep some salary back. Or maybe its not a poor contract they trade, but Maroon instead.

    What I am suggesting, if LVK does this type of trade a few times they could substantially improve their lot in life much earlier than any other expansion team has.

    They could also flip guys they get doing this to get some very solid 2nd, marginal 1st line players. BEFORE they pick any players.

    It should be an incredible couple of days. I am expecting a very exciting three days of trading.

    But first, there is the matter of the playoffs.

    Woot! Woot! GO OILERS !!

  52. N64 says:

    Death March 10-10

  53. Glass says:

    If Dumba is claimed by Vegas through the expansion draft, would you trade one of Nuge or Eberle for him? Young enough to fit into our core of defensemen, is an offensive player, and is having a breakout season (points are similar to Klefbom’s on the surface). Not to mention his much needed shot from the point, and also being a physical player.

    Honestly, I would strongly consider it. Imagine a top 4 of Klef/Larsson, Nurse/Dumba in the next few years. Our D-core is set for the next decade. A Nuge for Dumba trade would be attractive to Vegas, as they will lack a #1 C, and Nuge is still young, high pedigree, and history of success.

  54. stush18 says:

    Glass,

    I don’t think minny exposes dumba.
    Lloyd B.,

    Can’t wait to see what happens. Team could look very different next year

  55. Suntory Hanzo says:

    hunter1909,

    11-8 please Hunter.

  56. jenga66 says:

    Hunter, put me down for 7 wins and 6 losses. My heart says 16 and 0, but my brain says “shut up stupid heart”.

  57. Gordies Elbow says:

    Sad to see another musician from the day passing on: Thoughts with J. Geils family and friends…

    Centerfold

  58. AsiaOil says:

    Kinger_Oil, Bad Seed and Johnny Skid – thanks for the kind words guys

    I know GMoney isn’t posting here but I’d be interested to hear his thoughts which are frankly more informed than my semi-lucid ramblings on the topic 🙂 Maybe WG could pass them on?

  59. godot10 says:

    hunter1909,

    Somebody has got to do it, since there are 16-0’s predictions out there.

    0 wins, 4 losses.

    I’ll take one for the oilogosphere.

  60. Diesel says:

    Blackwolf:
    hunter1909,

    Hunter. May I have W15 L10 please and thank you.

    Oh. Oh you sonofabitch.

  61. Evilas says:

    Hunter! HUNTER!!!!! HUUUUUUUNNNNNTER!

    Just wanted to make sure I got your attention 🙂

    I just filled out the NHL Bracket Challenge and I request to revise my prediction from 6-6 to 16-11

    Please and thank you.

    For shits and giggles I had my Chinese fiance fill out her own bracket and initially she apologized and said she thought Pittsburgh would win in the finals vs the Oil, but then when I had her calculate the goals, she said that Edmonton is better in OT and would win the 1st and 7th games in OT.

    She also picked the Leafs to beat the Caps in 6 games, lol.

  62. digger50 says:

    Lloyd B.:
    stush18,

    You`re not being an ass.Questioning the proposal moves the conversation forward.

    I do not use IMO because if I am writing it, is by default, my opinion.

    My point is that LVK will have any manner of those types of players they can`t keep due to waivers.

    I should have been more clear about Pouliot and his contract. Perhaps the Oil have to keep some salary back. Or maybe its not a poor contract they trade, but Maroon instead.

    What I am suggesting, if LVK does this type of trade a few times they could substantially improve their lot in life much earlier than any other expansion team has.

    They could also flip guys they get doing thisj to get some very solid 2nd, marginal 1st line players.BEFORE they pick any players.

    It should be an incredible couple of days.I am expecting a very exciting three days of trading.

    But first, there is the matter of the playoffs.

    Woot! Woot! GO OILERS !!

    Yes, and let’s not forget that teams would love to get a first round pick for a guy they expect to lose for nothing. So in the discussed scenario, Rangers can’t protect Hayes, and they figure Vegas will take him. If Oilers offer a first rounder to Rangers for Hayes, Rangers grab it and take it to the bank.

    Edit: due to this expansion pressure, a late first rounder has way more value than other years. And of course, the target player must be of valuable enough to be protected, otherwise you spend your draft pick plus maybe lose your acquisition.

  63. jm363561 says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March has approximately 24 hours to accept entries!!

    Win 10, lose 8. Cheers.

  64. Discosquirrel says:

    hunter1909,

    10 wins and 9 losses please and thank you!

  65. Doug McLachlan says:

    hunter1909,

    Thanks for doing this again Hunter. Was thinking the Oil would improve this season but fall just short of the playoffs. What did I know.

    There seems to be a lot of unbridled optimism now, which I am all in favour of but this team is not yet a true contender for the Cup.

    Put me down for 6-5. I can see a way past San Jose but not the Ducks.

    Here’s hoping that I have greatly underestimated them once again.

    GoOilers and a WOOOOTT for good measure. Playoffs!!!

  66. Mustard Tiger says:

    hunter1909,

    16 wins, 9 losses

  67. thelongway says:

    hunter, 16 wins 11 losses please
    I suspect eberle and leon will be very major factors but don’t know how to quantify

    ps. what will I win?? 🙂

  68. spoiler says:

    Skulking in the shadows of a dead thread, a black-gowned lawyer with an ice bucket and the categorical imperative to use it, goes full sunshine:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Hunter: 2 wins, 4 losses.

  69. thelongway says:

    and LT, as I only manage to log in once every year or so, thanks so much for this wonderful place

  70. thelongway says:

    and to woodguy, did you ever play limit poker anywhere? ive been racking my brain trying to remember you. but iive been out of the game since 2010 and can barely remember my friends 🙂

  71. oilinthepeg says:

    hunter1909,

    Hi Hunter,

    Put me down for 6-6 – Lose in 6 to Anahiem.
    Hope I am wrong!

    Thanks and WOOOOOOOT GOILERS!

  72. jp says:

    10 years, 9 months and 23 days.

    3951 days total.

    Today is the day!! Let’s Go Oilers!!!!!!

  73. countrygirl says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter please write me down for 14 Oilers wins and 12 losses in the playoff Death March. Thank you.

  74. russ99 says:

    Since the Blues made the playoffs, how far do they need to progress for the Yakupov pick to change to a 2nd rounder?

  75. jp says:

    AsiaOil,

    Glad we ended up with the 1 “correct” positive prediction!

  76. P2theickles1 says:

    Hunter please put me down for 11 and 8.

    Thanks!

    Let Go Oilers!!

  77. McNuge93 says:

    russ99,

    I think he had to score 15 goals as well to make it a 2nd rounder.

  78. oilgreg says:

    9-8

    Thanks!

  79. The Original JDI says:

    McNuge93: 15 goals

    I wonder if that had to be in the regular season, or if it includes playoffs as well.

    Only 12 more goals to go!

  80. AsiaOil says:

    jp:
    AsiaOil,

    Glad we ended up with the 1 “correct” positive prediction!

    All that matters right 🙂

  81. Jaxon says:

    My guess at likely additions are Spencer Foo on RW (he is just too good a fit for Edmonton),

    Ziyat Paigin on LHD (this was great news last week, just to get him out of a possibly bad situation and get him working on his North American game),

    and one of the following 3 players at around #24 in the draft:

    1. RHD Conor Timmins (they should add at least one more high-end RHD prospect and Timmins fits that bill perfectly .Timmins is a 6’1″ RHD, and scoring at almost a point per game in the OHL this season.

    2. Right-handed Left Winger Nikita A. Popugayev (seems like the best forward fit for Oilers in that range). Popugaev is a 6’6″, 203 lbs right shot with slick hands and some speed.

    3. Left-handed Right Winger Kristian Vesalainen (you can find highlights from the 15-16 World Junior Under 18s with Vesalainen, Rasanen and Puljujarvi playing together and looking pretty good).

    If they can get Foo, then maybe Timmins makes the most sense. He’s already scoring at a great pace with an NHLE of 24 pts. 24 NHLE in his draft season puts him at the same CHL production rate as Ceci, Ekblad, Pietrangelo, Hamilton, Doughty and Subban. He’s not big, but if he fills out a bit he won’t be small either (currently 6’1″, 182lbs).

    2 Draft Compiling Sites:
    My NHL Draft: 23. Vesalainen, 25. Timmins, Outside 1st Round. Popugayev
    Draftsite: 21. Vesalainen, 22. Popugayev, 25. Timmins

    Hopefully one of them is still left when Edmonton comes to the podium.

    The only other player I’ve tried to surround is NCAA 19 year old, 6’3″, 220lbs, RHD prospect Johnny Kovacevic who scored 19pts in 36 games this season with Merrimack. I think Edmonton should try to pick him up with either their 148th or 179th pick, maybe he slips to 210th, but I doubt it.

    Scouting Reports on Popugaev:

    ISS Hockey – Oct. 16th: “Physically dominant w/excellent skating tools. Offensive threat whenever he’s on the ice.”

    Jeff Marek of Sportsnet – October 4th: “He’s a second-generation player whose father Andrei played with Moscow Dynamo and Spartak. A big kid (6-foot-5, 208 lb.) who can really move his feet and make plays at top speed. He’s a right-hand shot who plays the left wing (traditional Russian). Between Noah Gregor and Brett Howden he’ll have a high-end centre to play with this season. Even with a huge frame, Popugaev still makes nice plays in tight.”

    Draft Site –Bill Placzek– : “The team that selects this huge Russian prospect will be doing so based on size, agility at his stature and his over-all skill level. Able to quickly start and stop, and be a frightening presence An off the charts skill-handler for a man his size. He plays it close to his feet that pops up very quickly. and gets maximum torque with shots and passes. His long stride gets him going quick so he can coast that looks like a jumbo jet about to take off. Plays strong on the stick and presents problems all over the attack zone as he turns quickly and then will cut back through the layers. Was traded and is leading his Prince George Cougar team with more than a point per game. All the signs point upward although a scoring a few more goals may seal the deal in the scout’s minds.”

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