THE OILERS AND CHL OVERAGERS (2017 DRAFT)

One area I can see the Edmonton Oilers being active at this year’s draft: Overagers. A team needing plug and play help at the pro level would do well in drafting mature juniors. There are a lot of very attractive options this season. Peter Chiarelli has drafted overagers (Ziyat Paigin, Vincent Deslauriers) in the past two seasons, but the CHL hasn’t been used in some time.

OILERS AND OVERAGERS (CHL)

  • 2008—Jordan Bendfeld
  • 2009—
  • 2010—Brandon Davidson (98 NHL games)
  • 2011—
  • 2012—
  • 2013—
  • 2014—
  • 2015—
  • 2016—

The fact Edmonton hasn’t drafted overagers from the CHL recently doesn’t make it a bad idea. I’m generally bullish on the current scouting department, especially the 2015 and 2016 drafts. That said, this year’s new eligibles should go inside the top 90, meaning an overager could give real value as early as the fourth round.

BEST CHL OVERAGERS, 2017

  1. RC Morgan Geekie, Tri-City Americans (WHL). C w/2-way rep and emerging offense.
  2. L Ivan Kosorenkov, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Undersized, 34 goals by getting inside.
  3. RD Dylan Coghlan, Tri-City Americans (WHL). 2-way defender, good skater.
  4. C Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Blossomed over last two years.
  5. L Ryan Moore, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Small and very skilled.
  6. L Kevin Hancock, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Impressive offense, battle. Average speed
  7. LC Brayden Burke, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Small, high skill, he is 20.
  8. R Artur Tyanulin, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Skill F posted strong season.
  9. RC Maxime Fortier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). He is 5.10, very skilled.
  10. G Stephen Dillon, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). 59gp, 3.46 .914.
  11. L Jordan Topping, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Good skater, no dominant skill.
  12. L Kyle Maksimovich, Erie Otters (OHL). Small, very skilled player.
  13. RD Brennan Menell, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Smooth offensive D, good on PP.
  14. RD Thomas Gregoire, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Undersized skill D, good speed, passing.
  15. R Patrick Bajkov, Everett Silvertips (WHL). Scoring winger who can shoot the puck.
  16. C Domenic Commisso, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Small rocket on skates, skilled.
  17. L Vladimir Kuznetsov, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Good skater, skilled, with size. 1998.
  18. G Zach Sawchenko, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). 51, 2.79 .917.
  19. LD Ben Gleason, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Good skater, has skill.
  20. L Simon Stransky, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Small skill winger.
  21. RD Matt Brassard, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Two-way D, impressive defensive player.
  22. LC Matt Fonteyne, Everett Silvertips (WHL). Playmaking C, average speed.
  23. L Maxim Mizyurin, Val d’Or Foreurs (QMJHL). Skill F adjusted well to NA.
  24. LD Justin Murray, Barrie Colts (OHL). Intelligent two-way defender.
  25. LD Kristians Rubins, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). 20, mobile, impressive. Shy boxcars.

OILERS AT THE 2017 DRAFT

  • First Round: No. 24 overall
  • Third Round: No. 84 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)
  • Third Round: No. 86 overall
  • Fourth Round: No. 117 overall
  • Fifth Round: No. 126 overall (FROM Vancouver—this is payment for Phil Larsen)
  • Fifth Round: No. 148 overall
  • Sixth Round: No. 179 overall
  • Seventh Round: No. 210 overall

OILERS NEEDS BASED ON CURRENT DEPTH CHART

  • Left Wing: The Oilers prospect depth chart includes Drake Caggiula and Jujhar Khaira, both of whom are on the current NHL roster. Former defender Joey Laleggia and oft-injured prospect Tyler Benson are the only other prospects of note at this position.
  • Right Wing: Jesse Puljujarvi is a major piece of the future and does a long way to solving things at RW. Anton Slepyshev is edging closer to securing an NHL job, but not much coming up after those two men. Note: Slepyshev is a natural LW, but shows up often at RW.
  • Right Defense: Aggressive procurement of Matt Benning, Ethan Bear and Ryan Mantha make this position a little stronger from what we were looking at this time next season. More needed, but the club is getting there.
  • Goal: Laurent Brossoit is in the NHL now, with Nick Ellis trending very well in his first year pro. Dylan Wells has been an excellent draft bet so far. Note: The Oilers just signed college goalie Shane Starrett, further advancing position depth.
  • Left Defense:  At the big league level, the Oilers have youngsters Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse. Caleb Jones and (newly signed) Ziyat Paigin could be pushing soon. Edmonton can afford to pass on a LHD unless the value is extreme.
  • Center: If you include Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, this is one of the deepest positions in the entire NHL.

OILERS TARGETS BASED ON THEIR OWN PAST

  • Dylan Coghlan, Tyler Steenbergen, Brennan Menell.

MY PREFERRED TARGETS

  • Morgan Geekie, Ivan Kosorenkov, Tyler Steenbergen.

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36 Responses to "THE OILERS AND CHL OVERAGERS (2017 DRAFT)"

  1. Justthestatsman says:

    Leafs up 1-0. Marincin is +1. Let the gnashing of teeth begin!

  2. The Original JDI says:

    Justthestatsman: Marincin

    Also credited with one shot block and one giveaway so far.

  3. Glass says:

    Isn’t it normal to draft overagers in the later rounds? I’m sure there are plenty of exceptions to the rule.

    I really wonder if Chiarelli plans on trading one of Nuge/Eberle in the off-season and is using the playoffs as an evaluation of which player to ‘sell’. More and more it looks like Eberle is the guy who stays.

    The question is, how do we plug the 2RD and 3C holes without creating holes elsewhere? Would you be willing to trade Nurse for a strong RD prospect like Carlo, McAvoy, Bowey? (obviously you’d adjust the package depending on the target). It’s not that I don’t like Nurse, but by the time Sekera’s contract has ended or he has regressed, one of our LD prospects is likely to rise up to 2LD. More importantly, you’re trading him for a highly regarded prospect in a position of dire need.

    None of our RD prospects really project to be top 4 defensemen. Sure, Bear and Mantha could surprise us, but we’d be ecstatic if one of them proved to be stable on the 3rd pairing while running the powerplay. Not to mention, Bear is likely to spend two years in the AHL (1 full year, and a cup of coffee in the 2nd). In contrast, I’d be willing to put money on one of Paigin/Jones/Reinhart/Lagesson/Oesterle becomes a top 4 LD.

    As for 3C, it seems like it would make sense to trade Nuge for a player who is strong at that role with the obvious ‘less cap hit’, and get something additional in return, like a draft pick.

    Edit: Or you trade Nuge for a 2RD that gets claimed from Vegas. Imagine if Vegas claimed Dumba, and we did a Nuge for Dumba trade… our D-corps is set. But something tells me Dumba won’t be exposed, and instead it will be Spurgeon.

  4. New Improved Darkness says:

    When I woke up this morning I could speak Russian. Here’s proof. Mimsy borogrove. It’s a Russian phrase meaning “we really suck”. Admittedly, it’s not much listed these days in Russian dictionaries of recent vintage—but trust me, every true Russian mutters this phrase under his or her breath all day long. Or so we all thought back in the 1960s.

    Here’s another thing. Paradoxically, bending your nose to the grindstone is so much easier if you begin with a small nose.

    Finally, the big problem with Eat Me Cake and Drink Me Potion, is being very careful to keep track of which does which. Had Alice not kept a pen handy (this wasn’t mentioned, it detracts from the narrative), things might have been very different. You can see this directly, because later on when she loses her pen, she yells up “hey, Humpty, can you lend me your pen?—just for a quick second, otherwise, I can never keep track of the price of things—”

    “—why of course, prices are so much worse than words, I share your anguish.”

    Here Humpty gingerly scrinches quite a good fountain pen into long his cigarette holder—which turns out to be quite telescopic (all the better for use at night)—leaning down to one side, where Alice tippy-toes up to receive it with her tippy fingers, an extremely generous sympathy which almost ended badly. In flight of subsequent events, this interaction, too, was struck from the official chronicle in like manner.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Glass: Very reasonable and astute post. I spent all last summer fretting over Nuge being dealt and entering this summer imo it is inevitable. Imo you trade Nuge for a RHD (Carolina?) and then use the left over cash to sign Martin Hanzal or other.

  6. dunterpunter says:

    Lowetide, for the people who love reading your blog but don’t have time to do research (finals week), is there a list of famous “over agers” from the CHL who have done great things in the NHL or progressed well in the past <5-10 years?

    Thanks,
    Your blog keeps me chuggin along. 2 more weeks and I'm done school forever.. unless I go back for a third time :S

  7. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lots of video evidence emerging on That’s Hockey and Coach’s Corner about how a puck-sized chunk of Pouliot’s broken stick squibbed toward Nurse & sucked him out of position thinking It was the actual puck. Gryba fooled by same illusion, most likely. Pretty fucking cruel to have two broken sticks impact the game so severely, with both “breaks” clubbing the home team.

    As for poor Pouliot I don’t think I seen a guy with so much misfortune follow him around since Joe Btfsplk.

  8. Lowetide says:

    dunterpunter:
    Lowetide, for the people who love reading your blog but don’t have time to do research (finals week), is there a list of famous “over agers” from the CHL who have done great things in the NHL or progressed well in the past <5-10 years?

    Thanks,
    Your blog keeps me chuggin along. 2 more weeks and I’m done school forever.. unless I go back for a third time :S

    I’ll do you one better and show you a cool thing that I found. 🙂 Tanner Pearson and Fredrik Andersen are two overagers from the 2012 draft. You can find overagers for each draft by going to hockey-reference and clickingon the age tab

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/NHL_2012_entry.html

    🙂

  9. Cameron says:

    Glass,

    I wouldn’t pencil McAvoy into any shopping list, he’s already at least the Bruins 2nd best defender, and his ceiling is high. I doubt they do anything but hangup if the phone rings for him. A similar situation with Hanifin. That said, Sklavin, Fleury, and other young D in Carolina likley are available.

    Also, I dont understand the thinking that Nuge is the guy to go out in a deal. Heavy minute 2-way C’s dont exactly grow on trees and while Nuge isn’t the offensive force it was hoped he’d be, he makes up for it with a complete game.

    My suggestion, see if Puljujarvi gets you in the conversation for Hanifin. They have his WJC center in Sebastian Aho, and a need for young talent at forward. Its a sideways move, but getting an equivalent talent (presumably) at D as you give up on the wing rebalances the D corps, and D is much more critical to team success than wing.

  10. dsr29 says:

    Just watched Dylan Wells score a beauty!

  11. jp says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m curious what has you ranking/preferring Kosorenkov so highly. There are a bunch of guys you have rated lower who have better boxcars.

  12. who says:

    Lowetide:
    Glass: Very reasonable and astute post. I spent all last summer fretting over Nuge being dealt and entering this summer imo it is inevitable. Imo you trade Nuge for a RHD (Carolina?) and then use the left over cash to sign Martin Hanzal or other.

    Don’t see the reasoning behind trading Nuge. This team does not have any depth at center if the coach continues to play Drai on the wing. That leave them with McDavid and Nuge as their only two potential top 9 centers. Name me one other player on the Oilers list that is a good bet to play top 9 minutes at the center position. They have a lot more options on the wing, with the big club or in the minors or junior.
    If they had more depth at center in the organization we wouldn’t have to watch DD play every game and we would still have Davidson.Trading Nuge is not the way to solve this problem.

  13. Lowetide says:

    jp: S

    His scouting report suggests he is an aggressive player who scores goals by driving to the net. He has skill for sure, but he’s not a perimeter shooter and he isn’t small. What I have read suggests to me his speed is good and I have also read he works hard without the puck.

    A goal-scoring winger with a range of skills is always going to be popular on my list.

  14. Glass says:

    Cameron,

    I guess it depends on whether you like:
    Maroon/McDavid/Draisaitl
    Lucic/Nuge/Eberle

    Over,
    Maroon/McDavid/Puljujarvi
    Lucic/Draisaitl/Eberle

    That being said, we don’t HAVE to make any moves this off-season, outside of moving Pouliot and/or Faynes contracts. Hell, if a Pouliot (.500 retained) + Slepyshev package gets you a 2RD, do that. But I do think that a 2nd pairing RD is a priority this off-season, rather than ‘sitting on your hands’. It’s not a bad idea at all, see what you have in your team, and the off-season prior to McDavid & Nurse’s contracts kicking in is when you make serious adjustments to your roster.

    Next season will be a much better indicator of what we have in Nurse & Puljujarvi, maybe Nuge has one hell of a rebound year anchoring the 2nd line.

  15. Doug McLachlan says:

    Cameron,

    You are hell-bent on the Oilers dealing Puljujarvi – preferably to Calgary but barring that to the Eastern Conference. 🙂

    Don’t know if the Hurricanes are dealing Faulk for a center (if so they should call up Colorado) but the salary of Nuge demands that the player coming back has some coin too. Believe the two are $6 million while Faulk is about $4.5 million.

  16. godot10 says:

    1) Griffin Reinhart will likely be in Vegas.
    2) Brandon Davidson is in Montreal
    3) Anton Lander is in Bakersfield. Soon headed to the World Championships, KHL, and Olympics.
    4) David Desharnais is mostly sitting on the players bench.
    5) Nugent-Hopkins is killing over 6 minutes of penalties…
    6) Leaving Lucic and Eberle without a centre to play with.
    7) Meaning Letestu and Caggiula are the 2nd option to play 4 on 4 behind McDavid.
    8) Letestu’s play falls off when he plays too much.

    P.S. If one misses the game day thread live…it takes a long time to catch up.

    Lander over Desharnais would mean that one would not be killing the 2nd line with all the PK’ing that Nugent-Hopkins is left doing. It would mean Letestu’s minutes could be kept reasonable.

    Lander between Pouliot and Kassian would be a 3rd line that can shorten the game, and punish the oppositioin. Pouliot and Kassian are both fast enough to compensate for Lander’s lack of it.

    It is hard to win when you don’t play your 12 best forwards, and don’t deploy them correctly.

  17. Cameron says:

    Glass,

    I think your proposed lines illustrate my point, there are enough forwards to make 2 good lines without Puljujarvi, and adding a Hanifin is a screaming need.

  18. sliderule says:

    Dylan Wells gets Petes to ohl semifinals.

    Terrific stats of 1.94 ga/gm and .944 save percentage while facing the fourth most shots.

  19. Todd Macallan says:

    sliderule,

    Also scored an EN goal. A skill the big club could’ve used this season.

  20. Lloyd B. says:

    Deja vu in Washington.

  21. Cameron says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Cameron,

    You are hell-bent on the Oilers dealing Puljujarvi – preferably to Calgary but barring that to the Eastern Conference.

    Don’t know if the Hurricanes are dealing Faulk for a center (if so they should call up Colorado) but the salary of Nuge demands that the player coming back has some coin too.Believe the two are $6 million while Faulk is about $4.5 million.

    Depending on the shape of the trade, I would love a Puljujarvi deal to Calgary, and Yes, I would vastly prefer to cheer for him in something other than Oiler silks – but my point to Glass stands, dealing a wing for D of comparable value is almost always a winner of a trade because D are harder to find and more important to build around.

    If Faulk is being dangled Carolina mgt isn’t as smart as they think they are.

  22. fishman says:

    godot10,

    Totally agree with this!!! Other than a 2 RD Oil biggest need is a 3C that can win face offs and PK (spelled LANDER) Allows 55 to stay at 4C where he is effective. Only way you can even think of trading Nuge is putting Drai at 2C which I guess would be the plan???

  23. Professor Q says:

    Why is everyone being so hasty tonight to trade away Nurse and Puljujarvi?

  24. Ice Sage says:

    Lloyd B.:
    Deja vu in Washington.

    all over again.
    does that mean the phLagmes win?

  25. Glass says:

    Professor Q,

    In my post above, I mentioned ‘How do you go about filling the 3C and 2RD holes while not creating holes elsewhere?’. Lowetide mentioned you trade Nuge for RD and then sign a 3C, which effectively moves Drai down to 2C, while counting on one of Puljujarvi/Slepyshev/Caggiula to be a full time top 6 RW next year.

    I mentioned packaging Pouliot (.500 retained) + Slepyshev for a 2RD. As well as hypothesizing, ‘Why not trade Nurse for a RD with similar pedigree?’ because of our insane depth at LHD and lackthereof at RD.

    Cameron mentioned trading Puljujarvi as a means of acquiring a RD.

  26. Professor Q says:

    Glass,

    I think it’s prenature, though. I feel people fail to realise how much depth and potential stars we need on forward as well, not just defence. Yes, we need Jesse to pan out, but we really need to give him the chance. I feel like Nurse is becoming almost as good as Klefbom and that we’d lose any trade (viable) with him involved.

    You somehow trade him to Buffalo for his RHD counterpart and you increase O while losing D. But that’s the only one I feel would work. Would help Jesse, too, by adding another Finn.

    Patience and finding the right keys I guess.

    I’d hate to trade Eberle and Nuge, too.

    Pouliot and 1st?

    It could turn out to be like trading Goldobin to Vancouver for all I know (trading Jesse or Darnell).

  27. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Hard pass on Menell. Coach has to shelter him despite a very weak Dcorps around him. Really struggles defensively even as an older guy at this level.

  28. GMB3 says:

    Professor Q:
    Glass,

    I think it’s prenature, though. I feel people fail to realise how much depth and potential stars we need on forward as well, not just defence. Yes, we need Jesse to pan out, but we really need to give him the chance. I feel like Nurse is becoming almost as good as Klefbom and that we’d lose any trade (viable) with him involved.

    You somehow trade him to Buffalo for his RHD counterpart and you increase O while losing D. But that’s the only one I feel would work. Would help Jesse, too, by adding another Finn.

    Patience and finding the right keys I guess.

    I’d hate to trade Eberle and Nuge, too.

    Pouliot and 1st?

    It could turn out to be like trading Goldobin to Vancouver for all I know (trading Jesse or Darnell).

    Are we watching the same games? Nurse is almost as good as Klefbom? What.. you’ll be hard pressed to fine many people who share your opinion

  29. Glass says:

    Professor Q,

    I wouldn’t trade Puljujarvi. He’s posting good numbers in the AHL, but they aren’t ‘great’. As in, they aren’t more impressive than Pastrnak or COL’s finn. I think that has people disappointed. Especially seeing Tkachuk, Laine, and Matthews doing as well as they are.

    This can cause the bar to lower in peoples minds, and instead of the franchise winger we were hoping for, we are getting a complimentary top 6 winger. That isn’t terrible on the surface, but again, I’m talking about how I view other fan’s expectations.

    Watch his highlights. Read his scouting reports. He has the size, speed, and skill. He was known to be great on the other side of the puck, and we’ve seen flashes of it in the NHL. Unfortunately there were reports of him turning the puck over too much in the AHL and getting benched. He needs to adapt to the NA game.

    I’m not convinced he’s going to rebound like Leon did, but I also don’t think he’ll spend more than half the season in the AHL next season. Hopefully he has a good off season and chooses a good camp. The one Laine went to (highly regarded, forget the name) prepared him quite well.

  30. Jon K says:

    Glass,

    If I recall correctly, Edmonton media suggested that Min offered Dumba for RNH and the Oilers passed. If true, it was a wise decision. Dumba has value but not as much as RNH, even if current perception is that RNH’s value is diminished on account of his contract and scoring woes this year. Apart from value, I’m not sure there’s any evidence that Dumba could succeed as a top4 RD at this point. His metrics have generally suggested he’s best in a bottom pair role against lesser opposition.

  31. digger50 says:

    godot10,

    Great post

  32. Glass says:

    Jon K,

    This is something that annoys me, and this isn’t an attack on you.

    At the time, Nuge had more value than Dumba. This is because Dumba hadn’t yet established himself. He did however possess the attributes and skill of someone we could use: speedy D with just enough size, cannon of a shot, and physical. That sounds pretty good.

    Turns out, Dumba had a breakout year of 34 points. That has to count for something right?
    He has 6 power play goals and 12 power play points, which is more than Barrie, Trouba, Vatanan, and Faulk. That has to count for something right?
    He has a plus/minus of +15. He doesn’t seem like much of a defensive liability in a likely 2nd/3rd pairing role he’d occupy with us. That has to count for something right?

    My point is, it’s probably better to invest in your future and trade for a player who is still establishing themselves, but clearly projects to be a good player. Because in a couple years, we’ll wish we had traded Nuge for Dumba. We’ll wish we had traded Nuge for Seth Jones. (Chia could of outbid CBJ by adding to that package)

  33. Younger Oil says:

    And I thought the Oilers were taking dumb penalties.

    Jesus Christ, Calgary.

  34. Zelepukin says:

    Younger Oil:
    And I thought the Oilers were taking dumb penalties.

    Jesus Christ, Calgary.

    Granted they also did absoutely nothing with a 1:20min 5 on 3 to and then almost a minute of 6 on 5 to finish the game.

    I watched the entire game and Calgary didn’t have much other than getting some lucky bounces.

    Getzlaf controlled that game.
    ANA D are impressive even without Fowler. Manson is really starting to be a player.
    Johnny Hockey is not built for playoff hockey, which is very enjoyable to watch. Pushed off the puck constantly, lots of giveaways as a result of always trying to be cute.

  35. trencan says:

    I personally think Chia will sign Russel and play him as 2 RD next season. So Oilers can evaluate Bears development in AHL and consider him as an option for future PP RHD. I also think Seky will be not an Oiler till the end of his contract and Nurse is his replacement as 2 LHD. I dont expect many changes in our TOP 4D for next season, but there is some possibility in trade of some D prospects (something like Jones + Poulliot for Silverberg with Vegas) You guys need to be patient with Puljujarvi, he probably is not what you expected, but I believe he will be quality TOP 6 player for the future. I also see Poulliots contract very important, instead him you can have some veteran winger and 3C from UFA market (something like Boyle + Vrbata). There are many options and it will depend on current situation on the market.

  36. Jon K says:

    Glass,

    Fair enough, I haven’t revisited Dumba’s numbers at season end. I would ask though, would you trade RNH for Justin Schultz? Some players are capable of immense success against players that occupy the bottom of NHL rosters. That has value. However in my opinion, the most valuable players are those that can perform against any opposition. Based on my viewings of Dumba, following his development and his metrics in the NHL leading up to this year, I have viewed him as a similar player to Schultz. Without seeing the numbers, I suspect he played a highly sheltered role in MIN this year as well given their stellar defensive core.

    Might he be a better player than that? Quite possibly. I’m not certain he is, and maybe my risk-averse nature is why I think RNH is more valuable than Dumba, bearing in mind my personal opinion of that player.

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