REVIEWING THE 2015 DRAFT

There are few moments in the life of a sports franchise that represent a true shift in fortunes. Although we all love the lore of the game, even moments that present themselves as a change in the weather don’t always work out that way. Although Edmonton won the 2015 lottery and with it that season’s draft, Peter Chiarelli traded away a lot of picks that day. In return, he acquired Cam Talbot, Griffin Reinhart and Eric Gryba, plus paid the ransom for hiring Todd McLellan.

As other teams plucked brilliant prospects from a generational draft, Edmonton had to wait. Now, two years later, we are seeing the results of those depth picks come into view. So far, things look bright. What should our expectations be? Scott Cullen has done the heavy lifting of looking back and figuring out expectations based on draft number and history. Let’s have a look.

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid. The ultimate home run, he is delivering 1.165 points-per-game at the NHL level. Scott Cullen tells us this pick has a 100% chance of playing 100 NHL games and the ‘average’ No. 1 overall pick is a first-line forward. McDavid has already covered that bet and now it’s a matter of surrounding him with enough talent to win.
  • No. 117 overall: LHD Caleb Jones. Cullen’s article suggests the expectation for a player chosen here is under NHL 50 games, with much of his career spent in the AHL or Europe. Jones has a 14 percent chance of playing 100 games. The strength of the 2015 draft and Jones fine play since he was drafted suggest he is on track to outperform the past.
  • No. 124 overall: RHD Ethan Bear. Very similar to Jones in that his performance post draft has been exceptional. Ordinarily I would say these two men would go higher in a re-draft, but I haven’t looked at all of the draftees and it was a deep one. Suffice to say that historically the Oilers should be pleased with Bear (and Jones). Cullen expectation is under 50 NHL games (same as Jones) but a 16 percent chance of playing 100 NHL games. Small increase in chances over Jones is just randomness of life.
  • No. 154 overall: RHD John Marino. I think Peter Chiarelli has more input into his drafts than previous general managers. Why? Increased interested in the USHL and its feeder leagues. Both Jones and John Marino were plucked from previously underused areas and both men look to be quality draft picks. Marino is now at Harvard and posted a strong season in a two-way role. Cullen’s numbers suggest he remains in the range as Jones and Bear, with 50 NHL games the average and a 15 percent chance of playing 100 or more games. I’m tempted to suggest that the reasonable view would be that one of Jones, Bear and Marino make it as NHL regulars, but I like the trio now better than Petry, Chorney and Wild a decade ago.
  • No. 208 overall: G Miroslav Svoboda. Another player who has performed extremely well since draft day, the issue here isn’t the numbers, it’s quality of play in his league. We simply don’t know the level of play, but Svoboda is dominating Cze-2. Cullen says expect 10 or fewer NHL games and an eight percent chance of 100 NHL games. I don’t know that we’ll ever see him, but man he’s something else by the numbers.
  • No. 209 overall: LHD Ziyat Paigin. A forever trivia answer (he was the last name to land in the Cam Talbot trade), Paigin made his reputation previous to draft day by playing solid defense in international tournaments (and the shot didn’t hurt). He is the fourth player from this draft who has signed and we’ll see how he adjusts to North America. Cullen says a player chosen here has an expectation of 10 or fewer NHL games and an eight percent chance of playing 100 or more games.

The 2010 draft taught me to understate the promise of a draft, so I will do so here. The six names chosen by Edmonton on draft day 2015 have all flourished since that weekend. The one man in the NHL is the best player in the game already, the others are matriculating. It was a great draft for sure, McDavid ensured that much. How many of these men will join him for the heart of his Oilers career? We wait.

There is a second story in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft that may become a monster in the years to come. In trading for Talbot, Reinhart, Gryba and McLellan, the Oilers sent away picks that turned into Mathew Barzal, Mitchell Stephens, Mike Robinson, Jonas Siegenthaler, Sergey Zborovskiy, Adam Huska and Christian Wolanin. Their futures will be tracked, same as Jones and Bear and Paigin, too. We wait on those stories as well.

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77 Responses to "REVIEWING THE 2015 DRAFT"

  1. theDjdj says:

    I have a feeling we’ll look back at this draft as one of the best in the history of the franchise. And not just as the birthplace of a god.

  2. admiralmark says:

    I look at it this way. If even 1 of those D men become a 2nd pair NHL player. All is forgiven. And that assumes Reinhart doesn’t make it. So as much as I (i’ll admit it) was down on Bob Green for the deal for Reinhart his advice in this draft was quite good if not inspired. And every single GM and Scout including excellent ones make a few mistakes. That comes with the territory when your job requirement is to take a shot at the unpredictable.

  3. leadfarmer says:

    If they didn’t throw away those draft picks on Reinhart this could have been one of the best drafts ever

  4. N64 says:

    “In trading for Talbot, Reinhart, Gryba and McLellan, the Oilers sent away picks that turned into Mathew Barzal, Mitchell Stephens, Mike Robinson, Jonas Siegenthaler, Sergey Zborovskiy, Adam Huska and Christian Wolanin. Their futures will be tracked, same as Jones and Bear and Paigin, too. We wait on those stories as well”

    Not waiting for Talbot at all!!! GOILERS.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Godot,

    Check your twitter DMs

  6. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Godot is on Twitter?

  7. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Missed today’s thread but wanted to make a comment about small sample sizes and confirmation bias.

    David Desharnais is under fire for his performance, and his cause wasn’t helped when he posted a +2/-5 = 29% in LT’s stat of choice, Corsi.

    But if you look at Fenwick, his line reads +2/-0 = 100% = nothing to see here. That’s right, not one opposing shot on his watch made it through the picket fence.

    Looking at them together I would conclude “mixed messages” rather than drawing / confirming conclusions like “his line got caved” or “the player should be replaced by Player X” or the ever popular “Chiarelli should be fired!” 😏

    To my eye DD played OK last night, not great but several steps above terrible with his best sequence coming on a brief PK shift at the tail end of a Sharks PP where he set up Eberle for a shot that will not be included under the EV stats cited above. But the point is his was not a game for statistical evaluation, there just wasn’t enough “there” there to draw anything beyond preexisiting conclusions already reached on this player.

  8. Glass says:

    When the Reinhart trade happened, I tried to keep an open mind. At the time I’m not sure if Chia knew what he had in Klefbomb, Nurse, and Davidson. There might be a LD I’m missing. Sekera was essentially the backbone going forward that year.

    Maybe Reinhart turns into a top 4 D within two years :/

    That being said, Nurse will really be pushing Sekera for 2nd pairing minutes next season. When Sekera’s contract comes to an end, I look forward to seeing who bubbles up to the top between Jones, Paigin, Reinhart, Simpson, and Lagesson.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Missed today’s thread but wanted to make a comment about small sample sizes and confirmation bias.

    David Desharnais is under fire for his performance, and his cause wasn’t helped when he posted a +2/-5 = 29% in LT’s stat of choice, Corsi.

    But if you look at Fenwick, his line reads +2/-0 = 100% = nothing to see here.That’s right, not one opposing shot on his watch made it through the picket fence.

    Looking at them together I would conclude “mixed messages” rather than drawing / confirming conclusions like “his line got caved” or “the player should be replaced by Player X” or the ever popular “Chiarelli should be fired!” 😏

    To my eye DD played OK last night, not great but several steps above terrible with his best sequence coming on a brief PK shift at the tail end of a Sharks PP where he set up Eberle for a shot that will not be included under the EV stats cited above. But the point is his was not a game for statistical evaluation, there just wasn’t enough “there” there to draw anything beyond preexisiting conclusions already reached on this player.

    Agree overall Bruce. As I mentioned this morning, maybe things are improving for him.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    For the record:

    Bob Stauffer stated on his show that the Oilers had Eriksson-Ek at 16 and Brandon Carlo at 33.

    Both played more NHL games this year than Reinhart.

  11. Gordies Elbow says:

    Glass,

    I’m still keeping an open mind on the trade. From what I’ve heard, Reinhart has been OKC’s best defender, and from what we’ve seen, defenders don’t develop in a straight line. 6’4″, 212lb, apparently learning to play the way Chia wants. If not taken in the expansion draft. could see him in the Matt Greene role next year.

    That said, really impressed with both the drafting in 2015 and the team’s NCAA free agent signings.

    This year, they’ve added the following prospect FA’s:
    – Drake Caggiula
    – Matt Benning
    – Ryan Mantha
    – Joseph Gambardella
    – Shane Starrett

    I wouldn’t be shocked to see Spencer Foo’s name added to the list shortly.

    Impressive list.

  12. Chachi says:

    Roman Polak just got Roman Polaked

  13. The Original JDI says:

    Chachi:
    Roman Polak just got Roman Polaked

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-fraAN7in4

  14. Chachi says:

    The Original JDI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-fraAN7in4

    Ha! I sincerely hope he is ok. Toronto is much worse with him on the ice. Also why do so many of the leafs players look like the unholy result of experiments in human-bovine reproduction?

  15. The Original JDI says:

    Chachi: I sincerely hope he is ok.

    I hope he’s invested well.

    Chachi: experiments in human-bovine reproduction

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsfmIXIoRCE

  16. Chachi says:

    The Original JDI: I hope he’s invested well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsfmIXIoRCE

    They also have a lot of porcine features. It’s like the Island of Dr. Moreau hockey team.

  17. The Original JDI says:

    Chachi,

    If you’re going to mention ovine next, I can’t find any youtube clips about velcro chaps.

  18. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Glass,

    I’m still keeping an open mind on the trade. From what I’ve heard, Reinhart has been OKC’s best defender, and from what we’ve seen, defenders don’t develop in a straight line. 6’4″, 212lb, apparently learning to play the way Chia wants. If not taken in the expansion draft. could see him in the Matt Greene role next year.

    That said, really impressed with both the drafting in 2015 and the team’s NCAA free agent signings.

    This year, they’ve added the following prospect FA’s:– Drake Caggiula– Matt Benning– Ryan Mantha– Joseph Gambardella– Shane Starrett

    I wouldn’t be shocked to see Spencer Foo’s name added to the list shortly.

    Impressive list.

    Yes it is. Also Nick Ellis & Patrick Russell.

    One retrospective conclusion about the Reinhart trade is that it was an early indicator of Chiarelli’s preference for 21-22 year old prospects over 18-year-old prospects.

    While it is de rigueur in some corners to piss and moan over that one trade until the end of time, perhaps it’s better to look at this acquisition pool as a basket of prospects and a body of work. Some wins, some losses, as Chiarelli suggested on Day One (& which is unavoidable for any GM who does anything more than sit on his hands).

  19. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yes it is.

    One retrospective conclusion about the Reinhart trade is that it was an early indicator of Chiarelli’s preference for 21-22 year old prospects over 18-year-old prospects.

    While it is de rigueur in some corners to piss and moan over that one trade until the end of time.Perhaps better to look at this acquisition pool as a basket of prospects. Some wins, some losses, as Chiarelli suggested on Day One (& which is unavoidable for any GM who does anything mo

    Someone kidnapped Bruce mid-post! I am guessing it was Martians! Nevermind, he’s back, they were benevolent Martians.

  20. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record:

    Bob Stauffer stated on his show that the Oilers had Eriksson-Ek at 16 and Brandon Carlo at 33.

    Both played more NHL games this year than Reinhart.

    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!
    Stupid Chia

  21. Chachi says:

    The Original JDI:
    Chachi,

    If you’re going to mention ovine next, I can’t find any youtube clips about velcro chaps.

    They store those clips on a different part of the internet.

  22. leadfarmer says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Missed today’s thread but wanted to make a comment about small sample sizes and confirmation bias.

    David Desharnais is under fire for his performance, and his cause wasn’t helped when he posted a +2/-5 = 29% in LT’s stat of choice, Corsi.

    But if you look at Fenwick, his line reads +2/-0 = 100% = nothing to see here.That’s right, not one opposing shot on his watch made it through the picket fence.

    Looking at them together I would conclude “mixed messages” rather than drawing / confirming conclusions like “his line got caved” or “the player should be replaced by Player X” or the ever popular “Chiarelli should be fired!” 😏

    To my eye DD played OK last night, not great but several steps above terrible with his best sequence coming on a brief PK shift at the tail end of a Sharks PP where he set up Eberle for a shot that will not be included under the EV stats cited above. But the point is his was not a game for statistical evaluation, there just wasn’t enough “there” there to draw anything beyond preexisiting conclusions already reached on this player.

    He’s been crap ever since his injury. That’s not mixed messages. It’s just how he’s been except for the first handful of games

  23. The Original JDI says:

    The other 29 GMs give Snow a good review to NYI ownership.

    Are those really the people you want to evaluate your GM?

  24. Glass says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    Exactly, that’s the thing. People want to brood over bad moves that Chia’s made. But when you want to lay into Chiarelli over the Reinhart trade, you have to give Chia credit for signing Mantha + those NCAA prospects. He’s done an excellent job.

    We are beginning to look pretty great in terms of goalie depth. We have a gap in NHL back up, which will be filled as Broissoit gains experience and confidence. In the AHL we will have Ellis & Starrett, both legitimate prospects. Lastly, Wells is an excellent CHL prospect, and Svoboda appears to be excellent in his own right, but time will tell when he plays against better competition.

    Our prospect cupboard at D is stacked, with Jones, Paigin, Bear, Lagesson, and Mantha making their AHL debuts. In the pros, you obviously have Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Benning, and Reinhart, all appear to be players, and all under 25 (some have yet to hit their prime years).

    People will have you think our forward pool isn’t good (it certainly isn’t great), we have a lot of players on the cusp of being full time NHL regulars.

    – Gambardella is likely to be a useful 4th liner, but certainly has the skill set to be a 3C, just lacks experience. He definitely has really good playmaking ability.
    – Khaira & Slepyshev are both really close to being regulars, both could use a good off season of training.
    – Pitlick was an absolutely lethal bottom 6 player, and I hope we see him at 100% at training camp.
    – Puljujarvi is someone expected to play in our top 6 next year, hopefully he has a good off-season of training.
    – Caggiula has been a solid player. He has the skills to be a top 6 forward, and what he lacks in size he makes up for in his speed and compete level. Valuable piece imo who can move up the line up if needed.
    – Then you have Laleggia who has shown promise at LW, but hasn’t been given a look on the big team.

    If Chiarelli signs Foo, that is the cherry on top. Probably projects as a middle 6 winger? He can score goals, and I’ve read that he plays with an edge.

  25. Chachi says:

    The Original JDI:
    The other 29 GMs give Snow a good review to NYI ownership.

    Are those really the people you want to evaluate your GM?

    LOL.
    That Maginot Line looks nifty – Germans pre-World War II.

  26. Jethro Tull says:

    The Original JDI:
    The other 29 GMs give Snow a good review to NYI ownership.

    Are those really the people you want to evaluate your GM?

    If you have to ask the question…

  27. russ99 says:

    I don’t remember the Hawks looking this bad in a long time,

    So glad we didn’t get Nashville in the first round.

  28. Bruce McCurdy says:

    leadfarmer: Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!
    Stupid Chia

    There you go. I personally feel that Chiarelli should have been fired the moment he didn’t trade for OEL.

  29. Bruce McCurdy says:

    leadfarmer: He’s been crap ever since his injury.That’s not mixed messages.It’s just how he’s been except for the first handful of games

    So, in other words rather than being received with caution, last night’s results add to your preconceived notion of how bad the player is.

    Thanks for making my point.

  30. godot10 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Godot is on Twitter?

    Yes I am on twitter. But I tweet hardly at all. I use twitter as more of a newsfeed.

  31. leadfarmer says:

    Bruce McCurdy: There you go. I personally feel that Chiarelli should have been fired the moment he didn’t trade for OEL.

    Yup it was either OEL or Reinhart. There was no other option. Absolutely none. Nothing else Chia could have done.

  32. Gordies Elbow says:

    Glass,

    The word I’ve heard that best describes Foo is “greasy.”

    Sounds like a good fit.

  33. leadfarmer says:

    Bruce McCurdy: So, in other words rather than being received wit caution, last night’s results add to your preconceived notion of how bad the player is.

    Thanks for making my point.

    As opposed to your ability to squint so hard you form him into a good player. Got it. Our veteran coach wouldn’t trust him with even 7 minutes. 7 Minutes!!! For a veteran. And guess what. That’s actually more ice time then he got in game 1. So don’t give me that crap. Any data set can be fudged to the point that you can make a small data set look significant when it’s not. Medical journals are filled with it

  34. Pescador says:

    Chachi: They store those clips on a different part of the internet.

    I call them “home movies”

  35. Pescador says:

    godot10: Yes I am on twitter.. I use twitter as more of a newsfeed.

    Just like Trump

  36. Gordies Elbow says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    With the older players, Chiarelli’s been hitting singles, doubles, and triples.

    The Drake is a player, Matt Benning is as well.

    Ellis looks like he could be, dunno about Russell, Mantha, Gambardella, or Starrett. Good bets, though.

  37. Pescador says:

    Chachi: Someone kidnapped Bruce mid-post! I am guessing it was Martians! Nevermind, he’s back, they were benevolent Martians.

    Martin Martians, he plays D fence for the Leafs

  38. MrEd says:

    Only 9 players from last years draft played games this year.
    (I do realize this has probably been said before:)

  39. spoiler says:

    russ99:
    I don’t remember the Hawks looking this bad in a long time,

    So glad we didn’t get Nashville in the first round.

    I don’t know if there’s a worse team for a skill team to play against. Maybe Ottawa?

  40. Lloyd B. says:

    Did Babcock just have Marincin out for the first 1:30 of the penalty kill for Toronto in overtime? Changed everyone else but left him on?

    I must have missed something.

  41. Diablo says:

    Anaheim up 2-0 on the godless Falmes

  42. ashley says:

    Kadri; What a loser.

  43. MrEd says:

    Nutshell. Doesn’t take me….

  44. Lowetide says:

    Condors win tonight, Josh Currie with a hat trick and Greg Chase grabs a couple of assists. Nick Ellis had a fine evening.

    http://theahl.com/stats/game-summary/1017010

  45. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record:

    Bob Stauffer stated on his show that the Oilers had Eriksson-Ek at 16 and Brandon Carlo at 33.

    Both played more NHL games this year than Reinhart.

    Oh what could have been. Adding those two names to the above list and throwing in the fact that they acquired Talbot? That could have been a potentially legendary draft.

    Well, we got McDavid, so I guess it already is, but even MORE legendary.

  46. Spengler says:

    wheatnoil: Oh what could have been. Adding those two names to the above list and throwing in the fact that they acquired Talbot? That could have been a potentially legendary draft.

    Well, we got McDavid, so I guess it already is, but even MORE legendary.

    True. Though only the first pick was assured to have been available. It’s entirely likely that the picks between 16 and 33 would have fallen differently without the trade.

  47. Lloyd B. says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yes it is.Also Nick Ellis & Patrick Russell.

    One retrospective conclusion about the Reinhart trade is that it was an early indicator of Chiarelli’s preference for 21-22 year old prospects over 18-year-old prospects.

    While it is de rigueur in some corners to piss and moan over that one trade until the end of time, perhaps it’s better to look at this acquisition pool as a basket of prospects and a body of work. Some wins, some losses, as Chiarelli suggested on Day One (& which is unavoidable for any GM who does anything more than sit on his hands).

    I like this new philosophy of signing older ‘prospects’ over 18 year old “suspects’.

    I reckon Chiarelli knew McDavid changed everything and draft picks aren’t going to be as good going forward. Ya think?

    Clear organizational shift in procuring emerging talent.

    Perhaps as early as next year, these types of prospects are going to be saying no to the Oliers.

    The pipeline will be plugged or at least plugging up. No clear path to the NHL for them.

    Great to see them take advantage of the window.

    They have signed a complete forward line, a set of right and left defensemen ( with an extra RHD) and a goalie.

    Under a cap system they are going to need these types of guys to fill in the holes much like Chicago has done the past number of years.

    It will be tough to watch some favorite role players go, but the 5 or 6 core guys get the money. Can’t sign any of the guys that are not core to long term, big money deals.

    I’m sure Chia has learned that lesson but here is a bubbling up example. Let’s say Kassian goes all world during the playoffs.

    Does he get a multi year multi million dollar contract for that performance? Or does he get an additional million over his existing contract for 2 years?

    If he won’t sign the reasonable contract, do you let him go and replace him with the “older prospect” that is in the system.

    I’m saying you let him go BUT… you need to have prospects and not suspects to take his place if he won’t sign for reasonable money.

    And yes I get the irony that reasonable money is ‘only’ $ 2.5 MILLION per year for a role player. And that, is what Kassian is.

  48. Lloyd B. says:

    wheatnoil: Oh what could have been. Adding those two names to the above list and throwing in the fact that they acquired Talbot? That could have been a potentially legendary draft.

    Well, we got McDavid, so I guess it already is, but even MORE legendary.

    Are you writing Reinhart off completely? You are thinking there is no chance he turns out?

    Conventional wisdom in these parts is 5 years, defencemen take more time, and development is not linear.

    Lest we forget at the end of last season Reinhart was playing better than Nurse. Nurse took a huge step this year. Why can’t Reinhart next year?

    What if all of McDavid, Talbot, and Reinhart turn out?

    If they do it would rival the 81? draft.

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    leadfarmer: Yup it was either OEL or Reinhart.There was no other option.Absolutely none.Nothing else Chia could have done.

    Either you’re new here or you utterly missed my attempt at old-meme humour.

  50. jm363561 says:

    In a cap world it seems to me that the draft is less important than it used to be as a source of the all important value contracts. Outside of the first round the time, effort and cost to develop the Khairas, Pitlicks, Landers, Davidsons, Sleps, seems to be disproportionate to () the value of the end products, (ii) the time for them to become productive, and (iii) the chance of success.

    Chia has produced, at a stroke, Benning and Caggiula from college hockey. He has used picks and free agency to, at a stroke, bring in Maroon, Letestu, Talbot (first season), Gryba, Zach. All are value contracts. All immediately productive.

    In a cap world teams pay big money to their core leaving little money to pay middle tier players who become available relatively cheaply. The draft in the lower rounds is still important, just not as important as it was.

    Just my humble observation.

    OEL – sigh.

  51. The Original JDI says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    If a picture says a thousand words, then a 4 second video clip must say about 96,000 words. Or maybe just 8:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNZFZ6jDCR4

  52. pocession charge says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Either you’re new here or you utterly missed my attempt at old-meme humour.

    His specialty is shadow reading, not nuance.

  53. wheatnoil says:

    Lloyd B.: Are you writing Reinhart off completely?You are thinking there is no chance he turns out?

    Conventional wisdom in these parts is 5 years, defencemen take more time, and development is not linear.

    Lest we forget at the end of last season Reinhart was playing better than Nurse.Nurse took a huge step this year.Why can’t Reinhart next year?

    What if all of McDavid, Talbot, and Reinhart turn out?

    If they do it would rival the 81? draft.

    I think Griffin Reinhart’s story is not yet complete. There are chapters left to be told and there’s a chance he makes it in the NHL. However,

    1) Reinhart IS 5 years post-draft.

    2) He has completed his Entry Level Contract (after 2 years in the WHL post draft) and has not yet established himself as even a depth NHL option.

    3) He is being crowded out by defenceman around his age and younger. As examples: Oscar Klefbom is only 6 months older than Griffin Reinhart. He has established himself as a top pairing defender at this point. Matt Benning is 3 months younger than Reinhart and has played this year as an NHL regular bottom pairing defenceman. Darnell Nurse is 13 months younger than Reinhart and he also has been playing as a regular bottom pairing defenceman. Even Adam Larsson is only 14 months older than Reinhart (drafted just the year before him) and has 360 NHL games under his belt.

    4) As such, his ceiling is becoming more limited. Anything can happen, but odds are that if he DOES make it in the NHL, it will likely be as a 3rd pairing defenceman.

    5) Erikson Ek, the comparison point here, also has a lot of story left to be written. However, in Draft+2 he already has 17 NHL games (compared to 37 NHL games to Reinhart in Draft+5, assuming he does not draw in for the playoffs, which may yet happen). The arrows are much stronger. The ceiling much higher. The second comparison point, Brandon Carlo, has already played a full 82 game season… so MORE than Reinhart has to this point in his career. He still has a lot of story yet to tell, but again, the arrows so far are quite positive.

    So, my comment was not meant to write off Reinhart entirely. However, after 5 years post-draft, it is becoming less likely Reinhart turns out as an NHL option and if he does, his ceiling is likely much lower. Erikson Ek and Brandon Carlo, meanwhile, are trending well.

    At this point, odds are that Ek and Carlo (should those have been the selections) are far more likely bets than Reinhart.

    Hence my comment that the 2015 draft had the potential to be even more legendary than it already has been, given the Oilers’ suspected draft list.

  54. pocession charge says:

    Lloyd B.:

    Clear organizational shift in procuring emerging talent.

    Chia had no choice. Previous drafting and development didn’t get the job done. The team, by all rights, should have several prospects pushing for NHL spots by now. That is not the case, especially at forward.

  55. The Original JDI says:

    Brodie takes a crosschecking penalty on Kessler with just over two minutes left.

    That’s what I call a win – win.

  56. pocession charge says:

    jm363561,

    Two counter points:

    1. Chia got lucky with Benning and Caggiula. The majority of college players that get signed crash and burn before they make it the NHL. My point is you can’t get these types of players on a regular basis.

    2. Drafted players still makeup the majority of most teams’ core group. These ELC’s usually provide extreme value to their teams relative to college signings. My point is that the draft will always be the foundation for building a successful team.

  57. wheatnoil says:

    pocession charge:
    jm363561,

    Two counter points:

    1.Chia got lucky with Benning and Caggiula.The majority of college players that get signed crash and burn before they make it the NHL.My point is you can’t get these types of players on a regular basis.

    2.Drafted players still makeup the majority of most teams’ core group.These ELC’s usually provide extreme value to their teams relative to college signings.My point is that the draft will always be the foundation for building a successful team.

    I think you guys are both making valid points here and would say that successful teams essentially acquire players in a variety of ways. Their good drafts make up for their bad trades, their good trades make up for their bad UFA signings, their good UFA signings make up for their bad draft picks, etc.

    It is precisely because, as you say, you can’t get college UFAs on a regular basis that you need good draft picks. However, it is precisely because the draft is a crapshoot and sometimes you’ll have a whole year or two flame out, that you need good college UFAs to fill in the prospect gaps.

  58. Oilanderp says:

    Something something 2015 draft

    *goes back to watching Kassian hits*

  59. Glass says:

    pocession charge,

    If you sign like 5 NCAA prospects every year you’re bound to find a player sooner or later.

  60. N64 says:

    wheatnoil: ) Erikson Ek, the comparison point here, also has a lot of story left to be written. However, in Draft+2 he already has 17 NHL games (compared to 37 NHL games to Reinhart in Draft+5, assuming he does not draw in for the playoffs, which may yet happen

    Not as clear as it sounds given one is a forward. Also in a non expansion draft year Griff might have got some of the call ups this year.

  61. The Original JDI says:

    Oilanderp,

    The look of despair on Coot’s face as the clock wound down in the third. Almost as satisfying.

  62. Pescador says:

    I❤️Radio sucks balls.
    I ❤️Liquor is where it’s at

  63. jm363561 says:

    pocession charge:
    jm363561,

    Two counter points:

    1.Chia got lucky with Benning and Caggiula.The majority of college players that get signed crash and burn before they make it the NHL.My point is you can’t get these types of players on a regular basis.

    2.Drafted players still makeup the majority of most teams’ core group.These ELC’s usually provide extreme value to their teams relative to college signings.My point is that the draft will always be the foundation for building a successful team.

    Fair enough. I can’t speak for other teams as I really only follow the Oilers. Either way, I still think the draft is now less important than it was, which is my main point.

  64. 106 and 106 says:

    Griffin Reinhart called up.

  65. spoiler says:

    106 and 106:
    Griffin Reinhart called up.

    That trade is really paying off.

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Godot is on Twitter?

    Not often, but he’s there.

  67. Louis Levasseur says:

    I have no idea if Reinhart will turn out. I do think it is too early completely pass judgment on the trade. I thought I read that part of the reason he has been in Bakersfield all season is due to implications with his bonus. Also, draft picks are nice, but we all know that it’s not a slam dunk that they will ever amount to useful NHL players. Barzal or Ek or whoever might be good, but it’s equally likely they never amount to a pinch of sh1t.

  68. wheatnoil says:

    N64: Not as clear as it sounds given one is a forward. Also in a non expansion draft year Griff might have got some of the call ups this year.

    Yeah, the forward piece makes a difference.

    I’m not sure expansion plays a difference in Reinhart’s call ups, though his bonus money might have. I will say that it looked like the Oilers gave him every opportunity in camp and then signed Russell when he wasn’t up to task.

    I suspect he’ll get every opportunity next year as well as 7D.

  69. Receptor Antagonist says:

    Re:The Re8nhart trade, people forget how we were so hard up for LHD.

    Oh wait….

  70. Justthestatsman says:

    Glass:
    pocession charge,

    If you sign like 5 NCAA prospects every year you’re bound to find a player sooner or later.

    That may be true, however with NCAA signings they need a higher success rate as they are using a valuable spot on the 50 man roster. With the draft, prospects don’t need to be signed right away. If, after a couple of years, it doesn’t look like they can make the jump to pro, they don’t need to be signed at all.

    I would agree with what others have said…the GM needs to look at all potential areas of player procurement.

  71. omega4 says:

    wheatnoil: . I will say that it looked like the Oilers gave him every opportunity

    That is not the way I remember it. I think he got a small opportunity on his wrong side(RD), then got sent down.

  72. N64 says:

    wheatnoil: I’m not sure expansion plays a difference in Reinhart’s call ups, though his bonus money might have.

    After 41 games in the AHL most of the bonuses were impossible. By then his game was looking good enough to fill in for a few days most years. Either they did not want to interrupt the slow cooker for even a week for the good of his development OR they did not want Vegas to evaluate his game in the NHL

  73. wheatnoil says:

    omega4: That is not the way I remember it. I think he got a small opportunity on his wrong side(RD), then got sent down.

    Sure, but the Oilers left a spot open for him to claim.

    Now, again, in more favourable conditions (fewer LHD) things might turn out different.

    I stand by my ‘what could have been’ comment given the potential option in discussion was a skilled forward and a RHD.

  74. wheatnoil says:

    N64: After 41 games in the AHL most of the bonuses were impossible. By then his game was looking good enough to fill in for a few days most years. Either they did not want to interrupt the slow cooker foreven a week for the good of his development OR they did not want Vegas to evaluate his game in the NHL

    I’m not sure we can say that was their intention with any degree of certainty.

  75. N64 says:

    wheatnoil: Sure, but the Oilers left a spot open for him to claim.

    Now, again, in more favourable conditions (fewer LHD) things might turn out different.

    I stand by my ‘what could have been’ comment given the potential option in discussion was a skilled forward and a RHD.

    One thing that’s slowed Griff down has been a few days out for back issues when he’s had a crack at 7D early in the year or at camp. It’s been personified as failure to condition but it might be about the wrong conditiong or treatment. His dad was so good that his back cost games and seasons and early retirement, but for a lesser player bad timing with a nagging injury can close key windows.

  76. N64 says:

    wheatnoil: I’m not sure we can say that was their intention with any degree of certainty.

    Agreed.

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